12/05/2017 Daily Politics


12/05/2017

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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:41.

Jeremy Corbyn declares he's not a pacifist as he pledges a robust,

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independent foreign policy and "no hand-holding" with US

:00:48.:00:48.

President Trump lays into the former director of the FBI,

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saying he's a showboat and a grandstander, as he attempts

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to close down the row over his sacking of James Comey.

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The opinion polls failed to predict David Cameron's general

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So can we trust the polls this time around?

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And how will Brexit Britain fare in tomorrow's Eurovision

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And with us for the whole of the programme today, the Guardian

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And Christian May, editor of City AM.

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Let's kick off with the news overnight from Washington -

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that Donald Trump has described the former director of the FBI

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whom he fired earlier this week as a "showboat"

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In an interview with NBC News, President Trump also said

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-- talked about his reasons for firing James Comey.

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But regardless of recommendation I was going to fire Comey, knowing

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And, in fact, when I decided to just do

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it, I said to myself, I said, you know, this Russia thing

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with Trump and Russia is a made up story, it is

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an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election.

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He is a showboat, he is a grandstander. The FBI has been in

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turmoil. Everybody knows that. I know I am not under investigation,

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me, personally. I am not talking about campaigns or anything else. I

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am not under investigation. Polly Toynbee, your first impressions of

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that interview? You always think you cannot be more shocked by Trump and

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then you are and what he has done is utterly astounding. He has sacked

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everybody involved in investigating the Russian links with his campaign.

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This sacking is utterly disgraceful and extraordinary. He has given

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different reasons why. In the first place, it was the investigation into

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Hillary Clinton and now he said it is this Trump, Russia thing. What

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worries you about the interview? Polly said, he has changed the story

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for the reasons of sacking James Comey. He has admitted that he had

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dinner and conversations with James Comey where he asked the FBI

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director was he under investigation, which is certainly unethical, if not

:03:27.:03:30.

illegal. There are fresh questions about conversations he had with

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James Comey but it is too early to say what lies at the root of this is

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a conspiracy or incompetence. It is difficult to tell with Trump which

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of those factors is the great motivator. It could be he is erratic

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and unpredictable. If he fired the head of the FBI because he felt he

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was getting too close to him, it is extraordinary to assume it would put

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the issue away. That is the question, it will not end the row.

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How does he get himself, extricate himself from this situation? It

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depends whether the investigation continues and what it turns up with.

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I was in Washington reporting, my earlier jobs, at the time of

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Watergate when Archibald Cox was sacked by Nixon and it feels like

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that, the act of someone desperate and desperately investigation should

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not continue. If he has nothing to hide, let it continue. Although it

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fits with the pattern of being unpredictable, of being erratic, of

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changing his mind, and of course he still denies he has any direct

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dealings, properties in Russia. We'll bat continued to hold, that

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line? And Washington, is it really from this? Will they come after

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Trump over this? I think a lot of people are. His critics, of which

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there are many, are determined to draw the Watergate comparison. It

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was fun to note the president Nixon library saying Nixon never fired the

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head of the FBI. This will run and run. Whether there will be fresh

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earrings, legal action taken against the president or those around him

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depends. Trump obviously feels he is insulated. He must feel that. He has

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that confidence. Whether it is misplaced... Whether you put it down

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to his personality or whether he thinks there is nothing here, it is

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politically motivated. I think he is insulated by his support base and

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they will believe anything he says, he says fake news and a ground swell

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of people who voted for him will back him, whatever he says, even if

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he says one thing one day and be opposite the next. Extraordinary.

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That is true of popular support, but it might not hold in Washington.

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What he calls the swamp. The question for today

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is how much is the general At the end of the show we will see

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if Polly and Christian can work out the numbers and perhaps we will do a

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whip round and see if they will donate.

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Jeremy Corbyn has been giving a speech setting out his views

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The Labour leader is a former chairman of the Stop The War

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But today, he's been explaining the circumstances

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in which he would countenance military action.

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In his speech, Jeremy Corbyn declared, "I am not a pacifist."

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He argued that military force can be justified if it's used

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as a genuine last resort and in compliance

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He also took aim at the foreign policy of recent years.

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He said the war on terror has failed.

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And he said that the "bomb first, talk later" approach to security

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Jeremy Corbyn turned his guns on both Theresa May and Donald Trump.

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He said there will be no more hand-holding with Donald Trump

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And the UK will pursue an independent foreign policy.

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But the Conservatives have responded to Mr Corbyn's speech,

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saying that the Labour leader has "spent a lifetime trying

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Jeremy Corbyn has been giving his speech at the Chatham House think

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tank. The War on terror has been driven, which has driven these

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interventions has not succeeded. It has not increased security at home,

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in fact many would say just the opposite. It has caused

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destabilisation and devastation abroad and last September, the House

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of Commons foreign affairs Select Committee published a report on the

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Libyan war, which David Cameron promoted. They concluded the

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intervention led to political and economic collapse, humanitarian and

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migrant crises and fuelled the rise of Isis in Africa and the Middle

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East. Jeremy Corbyn. We have been joined from Leeds.

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for Peace and Disarmament, Fabian Hamilton.

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Jeremy Corbyn said he would do everything necessary to protect this

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country. What does that mean? It means not leaving the country

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defenceless and ensuring the Armed Forces are properly supplied and

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armed bandit mean spending the 2% we are committed to through Nato on the

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armed services and events. Defence of this country is safe with the

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Labour Party and always has been and always will be. What about a strike

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against the leader of so-called Islamic State? Jeremy Corbyn was

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asked if he would authorise such a strike if the British security

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forces got that intelligence and he did not answer the question. Would

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that be necessary to protect the country in your mind? It is a

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theoretical situation and it is hard to say unless you are faced with

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intelligence and facts. It is all very well asking if you would do

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this in the circumstances but nobody knows the circumstances and it is

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impossible to answer. If he is saying a Labour government would do

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everything to protect the UK in Britain, is a member of Isis in

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Syria was planning a terrorist act on the streets of this country,

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would Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn authorise a strike on that

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individual? It is not that unrealistic. I cannot answer that

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question. Why not? Because I do not know the circumstances or

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intelligence but I cannot see why Jeremy Corbyn would react in any

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other way to any other Prime Minister Labour or Conservative

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given the threat. He would do what David Cameron did in that situation?

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Could you repeat the question? A Prime Minister Corbyn would do the

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same as David Cameron did when he reported the drone strike that

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killed high-level people in Isis. Why are we talking about these

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theoretical issues? We have no idea what the circumstances may be, what

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the intelligence would show, what the military advice would be given

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to the Prime Minister of the day. Jeremy Corbyn along with every

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member of the Labour Party and MP holds the defence of this country as

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a highest possible priority and we will do everything to defend the

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people of Great Britain. People want to be able to trust a future Labour

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government that they would do the sorts of things people would

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consider necessary to protect this country. Jeremy Corbyn criticised

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what he called unilateral military action which he said has become

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almost routine. Explain, does that mean a future Labour government

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would always need for UN backing for any military action? It depends on

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the circumstances. We are a member of Nato and know the Nato treaty

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means an attack on one is an attack on all and I would not have thought

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if one member was attacked and the treaty was invoked we would

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necessarily go to the UN, it depends on the circumstances. The defence of

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the country is a priority for any party who wants to hold power and

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any government elected to power. If you criticise unilateral action, the

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logic of the argument says Britain would not be prepared to take

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military action, even if the UK was under threat in the unilateral way,

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and by leaving that not clear, does that give someone like Vladimir

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Putin a veto on the UK's foreign policy? Russia is a permanent member

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of the UN Security Council, it does not respect our veto in Syria for

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example, are you saying we should always respect there is? We should

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not embark on the kind of approach in the past, that Jeremy quite

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rightly says means dropping the bombs first and asking questions

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later. Innocent people have been killed as a result of some of these

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strikes and conflicts and that is something we want to avoid. If we

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can see a conflict coming we need to do everything through international

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forums including the UN and Nato to de-escalate the situation and stop

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the conflict happening in the first place. Do you think talking and

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using the vehicle of the UN has de-escalated the Syrian crisis? It

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hasn't, but the UN has an important role there and the problem with

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Syria, the crisis is so complicated it is almost impossible to pick it

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apart but the only solution will be through the United Nations. I cannot

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see any other solution unless Turkey, Iran, Russia find a

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conclusion between Syria and the Isis factions and other warlords.

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You can only see the UN as a viable channel, as you say, to direct

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foreign policy or military intervention, but what about

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humanitarian intervention? You remember Tony Blair intervened to

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stop Slobodan Milosevic to attacking civilians in Kosovo without the

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backing of the UN. With Jeremy Corbyn do it for humanitarian

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reasons I smirk I think this country has a good record in humanitarian

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interventions and provided parliament is consulted and approved

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it, I see no reason why we should not take those interventions on if

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it is for humanitarian purposes to save lives. We are good at doing

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this had we have shown an example to other countries. Is Jeremy Corbyn

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saying today what he personally thinks, or is he saying what he

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feels he needs to save from a collective point of view for the

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Labour Party? He seems to have changed his mind on Nato and defence

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spending. Join every campaign, fight all the cuts except those in the

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Armed Forces where we want to see a fume or cuts taking place and no

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more nuclear weapons. Nato was founded to promote a Cold War with

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the Soviet Union. That resulted in the formation of the Warsaw Pact.

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Come the end of the Cold War in 1990, that should have been the time

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for Nato to shut up shop, give up, go home and go away.

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So, does Jeremy Corbyn still think that Nato should shut up and go

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away? He wasn't the leader of the Labour Party when he said that. He

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is now the leader of a large party that makes its decisions

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collectively. So has he changed his mind, or does he still hold that

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view but he has either been forced or converted himself to thinking

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that that is not the right policy to represent the Labour Party. He may

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well have changed his mind, he may well still hold the same views. You

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don't know? Of course I don't know, but what is very clear is that when

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you are the leader of a political party, you have to go along with the

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democratic decision and the collective view, and the collective

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view is that we support Nato and we support remaining a member of Nato,

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and that is what Jeremy Ayre is promoting. I have my own particular

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views about disarmament and nuclear weapons, but we accept the

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democratic decision and we will carry it out. But there are some

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decisions that only a Prime Minister can make, and if you are putting

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yourself forward to be a Prime Minister, your personal views are

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important because it goes to the heart of your personal credibility

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when you are standing in front of voters. 2014, three years ago,

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Corbyn saying very passionately that Nato should shut up shop, and saying

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that the only cuts that he would support would be cut to the Armed

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Forces, a direct contradiction of what you are saying in your

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manifesto. Are we really saying that when somebody says something three

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years ago, they are not entitled to change their mind given how very

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huge change Jeremy bowl smack role is now -- Jeremy's role is now... So

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in the last three years he has had a radical change of heart having held

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those views all his life? Of course he has, because he never had the

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prospect of being the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and now that

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prospect is within view so you have to change your mind and take a much

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broader view of what your role now is. But you did say you one sure

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whether he had changed is my door was doing it the democratic will of

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the Labour Party. Will people believe what you are saying? Will

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people trust that if he became prime Estep he would hold to those

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policies in the manifesto, or would he under a copper hence it Strategic

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Defence Review try and go back to the policies that he actually

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believes? Jeremy Irons a Democrat like all of us, and he will go along

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with the democratic view of the Labour Party. There are decisions

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made in the seclusion of 10 Downing Street, but they are made with a

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whole lot of advisers, advice about the common good, the defence of the

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realm, the important issues that a Prime Minister must deal with, and

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it seems to me that you are trying to personalise this into the persona

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of Jeremy Corbyn. But he wants to be Prime Minister, that is fair. But

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you have to see that his views will be different than when he was a

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backbencher was speaking for himself and his constituents alone, and that

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is a different point of view tour party leader aspiring to be the

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leader of this country. Your reaction on that, that goes to the

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very heart of the matter. Can people trust Jeremy Corbyn and what he is

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saying today as Labour leader and a future Prime Minister in this

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election campaign, or will they refer to the views that he has held

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over the last 30 years or so in parliament? It is a difficult line

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to hold, that line between what he has been saying passionately for 30

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years on the position he has now been forced to adopt as he leads a

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political party. The public will rightly look at 30 years of speeches

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and 30 years, decades of dubious association with people who have

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made this country harm, one only has to think about his quite vocal

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support for the bombs and the bullets of the IRA, a time when he

:19:17.:19:20.

clearly felt that the military action or armed action was justified

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in that conflict, so he can make a speech today at the head of a

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general election in which he seeks to reassure people that he does wish

:19:28.:19:31.

to protect the country, but if you have spent 30 years positioning

:19:32.:19:34.

yourself on the other side of that argument, people will rightly

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question your sincerity. Do you think this is a difficult area for

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Jeremy Corbyn to appear authentic? He has always said, I stand by the

:19:43.:19:47.

principles I have always held. It is difficult, but what he said today

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would actually be very popular if it weren't him say it. Almost

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everything he has said, people would agree with. They don't want to be

:19:56.:19:58.

close to Trump, they don't want any more involvement with the Middle

:19:59.:20:01.

East, they do regard it as having been a disaster, they don't see

:20:02.:20:06.

solutions in Syria or any reason why us adding a few bombs is going to

:20:07.:20:11.

solve that intractable problem. Unfortunately because of his back

:20:12.:20:14.

story and the clips you have shown, people weren't trusted coming from

:20:15.:20:21.

him. Like a labour's manifesto, nothing in there that would be

:20:22.:20:25.

unpopular. Before we go onto the front pages of the papers, do we

:20:26.:20:28.

know anything more about Theresa May's foreign policy? As Polly

:20:29.:20:35.

Toynbee said, cuddling up, as people see it, to Trump, will not be a

:20:36.:20:40.

popular image with British voters. In my view the special relationship

:20:41.:20:45.

is special because it endures no matter who is in office on either

:20:46.:20:48.

side of the Atlantic, so I don't think she was wrong to go to

:20:49.:20:51.

Washington. She might regret the fact that Trump grabbed her hand,

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but I imagine there were Tory cheers were Jeremy Corbyn says he will talk

:20:58.:21:01.

about defence policy in the election campaign... Former military leaders

:21:02.:21:04.

have criticised Theresa May for saying that this 2% of GDP de being

:21:05.:21:12.

spent on our defences is accounting deceit. There is a roe going on that

:21:13.:21:16.

is more important. We all know what Jeremy Corbyn thinks about defence,

:21:17.:21:21.

it is the one thing that everybody knows. But there is a big argument

:21:22.:21:35.

going on, the military of defence -- the Ministry of Defence is

:21:36.:21:36.

overspending dramatically, and they want a new strategic review. He says

:21:37.:21:41.

he doesn't want one because he knows it will uncover the extent to which

:21:42.:21:44.

they are in bad trouble, that is the more important story.

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Let's see how some of today's papers covered Labour's manifesto launch.

:21:49.:21:52.

Christian's newspaper City AM says "Never mind the '70s,

:21:53.:21:54.

Corbyn will take us back to the 1940s", referring

:21:55.:21:57.

to the level of state intervention promised in the manifesto.

:21:58.:21:59.

Polly's paper, the Guardian, has a picture of Jeremy Corbyn

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on the front page and calls it a radical manifesto,

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which the Labour leader says will transform lives.

:22:06.:22:07.

The Times claims the manifesto has promoted an internal wcivil

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And it also has a picture of our colleague Giles Wooltorton,

:22:16.:22:21.

the BBC cameraman whose foot was run over by Mr Corbyn's car yesterday.

:22:22.:22:24.

And The Sun also has a picture of Giles on its front page, alongside

:22:25.:22:28.

a picture of Unite boss Len McCluskey taking

:22:29.:22:30.

The headline is "crash, bang, wallies", claiming

:22:31.:22:32.

that the manifesto launch is a "shambles".

:22:33.:22:37.

In a way, Labour has a point about members or parts of the press who

:22:38.:22:45.

have just got it in for him no matter what he says. Most of the

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printed press in this country is sceptical if not hostile to some of

:22:50.:22:52.

the positions he has advocated. But they would be whatever he said. 85%

:22:53.:23:00.

of the press is always against Labour. The reference to the 1940s

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was from Paul Johnson of the ISS, and nobody can accuse him of being

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always against Labour, that is one of the most impartial institutions

:23:08.:23:12.

in the country. His argument was that the policies outlined in the

:23:13.:23:15.

manifesto are so radical they would transform the role of the state in

:23:16.:23:19.

so many areas of people's lives, and lead to such extraordinary levels of

:23:20.:23:23.

state spending, they really ought to be questioned. Nothing in the

:23:24.:23:26.

manifesto would be unpopular, you said, there are things that would be

:23:27.:23:30.

unpopular, but you are right, time and again whether an nationalising

:23:31.:23:35.

rail, zero hours contracts, banning fox hunting, these things poll well

:23:36.:23:39.

with the public, yet it is Mr Corbyn himself and the wider team around

:23:40.:23:44.

him that will prevent these policies... It is a popular

:23:45.:23:50.

manifesto, when people comparing with the 1983 longest suicide note

:23:51.:23:54.

in history... It didn't do the many good then! There were important

:23:55.:23:58.

things in it that are there now like unilateral disarmament, pulling out

:23:59.:24:03.

of Nato, pulling out of Europe, there is nothing in this manifesto I

:24:04.:24:07.

think that anybody somewhat to the left of centre couldn't agree with

:24:08.:24:11.

warmly. What about the costings, though? Isn't that going to be the

:24:12.:24:16.

day of reckoning in terms of the amount of money on social care,

:24:17.:24:21.

abolishing tuition fees, these sound like very popular but very expensive

:24:22.:24:25.

policies. What we need to see is how they are going to be costed, and

:24:26.:24:30.

what the priorities are. Are these longer-term things? Are they really

:24:31.:24:34.

going to abolish all tuition fees even for the richest families? Will

:24:35.:24:39.

there be gradations? Who knows? It is really important that those are

:24:40.:24:43.

watertight. And they won't be, because he is talking about spending

:24:44.:24:48.

taxes, the same tax rise on multiple different projects. We heard from

:24:49.:24:54.

the former Lib Dem pension Minister Steve Webb who said the commitment

:24:55.:24:57.

to cancel the rising of the state pension age would cost 300 billion

:24:58.:25:02.

over 20 years. But that is a bit of a chisel, over 20 years. Corbyn will

:25:03.:25:08.

have to try to be in power for 20 years if he wants to fully

:25:09.:25:12.

nationalise the rail. People say he will seize it back, but they fall

:25:13.:25:15.

back in mostly in about 15 years, and they will fall back in without

:25:16.:25:19.

any cost, because you are not snatching it back. The 1983

:25:20.:25:23.

manifesto was all about grabbing back huge industries with no

:25:24.:25:27.

compensation. There is quite a bit of that in the manifesto. We all

:25:28.:25:32.

know the Conservatives are wanting to cap prices as well in terms of

:25:33.:25:38.

energy companies. But the only bit of costing apart from the

:25:39.:25:41.

re-spending as critics would say of corporation tax increases is this

:25:42.:25:46.

idea of taxing those who earn over ?80,000 a bit more. Why so modest

:25:47.:25:53.

from John McDonnell? He said it would only be a modest amount, that

:25:54.:25:56.

doesn't sound like it would be enough to meet those costs. Maybe

:25:57.:26:02.

there is a 50p tax for hire people. You could go up to 60p for the

:26:03.:26:06.

people earning a million. You could, but you raise less money. Let save

:26:07.:26:16.

this is the next week where we will have the manifesto is, finally.

:26:17.:26:16.

Deal. The opinion polls are forecasting

:26:17.:26:19.

a comfortable Conservative victory But after the surprise

:26:20.:26:22.

result of 2015, Brexit and President Trump's win,

:26:23.:26:24.

can we trust polling companies to give us an accurate

:26:25.:26:27.

prediction of the result? Jenny Kumah's been looking at how

:26:28.:26:29.

the pollsters are trying The Conservatives

:26:30.:26:31.

are the largest party. It was the day that David Cameron

:26:32.:26:39.

won, and you could argue They weren't able to get to people

:26:40.:26:42.

who, if they did persist, they did pursue them,

:26:43.:26:55.

difficult to get, but they They didn't get them,

:26:56.:26:59.

so they got the more Labour. After the surprise result

:27:00.:27:02.

of the 2015 general election, pollsters took a good,

:27:03.:27:05.

hard look at the way they did and brought in changes

:27:06.:27:08.

to improve accuracy. Despite this, many still failed

:27:09.:27:10.

to forecast Brexit. So are they right about

:27:11.:27:14.

next month's election? And just how sure can we be

:27:15.:27:19.

that the polls' favourite will be moving into Number 10

:27:20.:27:22.

on June the 9th? YouGov's online polls put Labour

:27:23.:27:25.

and the Conservatives To improve their accuracy,

:27:26.:27:27.

they've recruited more people to their survey panels who aren't

:27:28.:27:38.

interested in politics and are less likely to vote,

:27:39.:27:41.

so that their samples Despite this, they mainly forecast

:27:42.:27:43.

a Remain result in 2016. What actually happened in the EU

:27:44.:27:49.

referendum was there was a higher turnout than people expected,

:27:50.:27:52.

and some social groups who don't normally vote so often actually

:27:53.:27:54.

did come out and vote, How confident are you that your

:27:55.:27:57.

forecasts for the 2017 Even if you look at polls

:27:58.:28:01.

when we got it really wrong, so 1992, the famous error,

:28:02.:28:10.

2015 when things were very wrong. The poll only got it wrong

:28:11.:28:13.

by about seven points. If the Conservatives have got

:28:14.:28:15.

a lead of about 19 points, then if you were just as wrong

:28:16.:28:21.

as that, that would still leave In the polling industry, you're only

:28:22.:28:24.

as good as your last game. ComRes's polls were

:28:25.:28:28.

the least wrong in 2015. They then brought in new techniques

:28:29.:28:32.

to better reflect turnout. But their final EU referendum poll

:28:33.:28:35.

showed an 8-point lead for Remain. For the 2017 election,

:28:36.:28:45.

if voters behave the way they did in the 2015 general election,

:28:46.:28:49.

then our turnout modelling should The big question in my mind

:28:50.:28:52.

is the impact of the 2016 referendum, and whether for some

:28:53.:28:59.

voters that meant that for the first time they voted

:29:00.:29:04.

and they are getting a taste for it. I think more likely, we've got

:29:05.:29:13.

a slightly different problem, which is that some people may feel

:29:14.:29:15.

that the result is a foregone conclusion, and they'll sit

:29:16.:29:18.

on their hands, sit at home and do So do the public trust

:29:19.:29:21.

the forecasters? I thought I'd do my

:29:22.:29:24.

own opinion poll. A couple of them of late have

:29:25.:29:26.

been a little way off. I think the people that partake

:29:27.:29:33.

and vote or that they screen aren't a true representation

:29:34.:29:36.

of the population. It's a safe bet to say that it's

:29:37.:29:39.

definitely going to go one way, and the opinion polls will be proven

:29:40.:29:42.

right this time, but I think we'll still be surprised

:29:43.:29:46.

at how right it is. We'll know for sure

:29:47.:29:51.

whether pollsters have done better And we've been joined

:29:52.:29:53.

by Will Jennings, professor of politics at Southampton

:29:54.:30:02.

University. Welcome. You were part of the

:30:03.:30:13.

polling inquiry. What is your sense of why the pollsters got it wrong,

:30:14.:30:19.

particularly in 2015? In 2015 after the election there was speculation

:30:20.:30:24.

around whether it was to do with shy Tories with people not willing to

:30:25.:30:28.

say they would vote Conservative, or lazy labour and Labour voters did

:30:29.:30:33.

not turn out that the enquiry concluded there was slight evidence

:30:34.:30:36.

for a late swing at the polls towards the Conservatives in the

:30:37.:30:42.

final day or two, what caused it was unrepresentative samples and

:30:43.:30:45.

pollsters were not getting enough people who had low political

:30:46.:30:49.

engagement. They were over representing highly politically

:30:50.:30:52.

engaged people and also under representing slightly older voters.

:30:53.:30:57.

Are you worried it could happen again this time? When you said

:30:58.:31:01.

certain groups were overrepresented it was felt support for Labour was

:31:02.:31:07.

overrepresented. Could Labour support be lower or higher than the

:31:08.:31:11.

polls currently estimate? There is an historical pattern of the polls

:31:12.:31:16.

over the past 20 years of them tending to overstate Labour support

:31:17.:31:20.

and it is difficult to know this election because there has been huge

:31:21.:31:25.

mythological change across the industry with pollsters making

:31:26.:31:29.

different changes. Some tinkered with turnout probabilities and how

:31:30.:31:32.

likely people are to vote and many look to the quality of their panels

:31:33.:31:36.

and it is difficult to know whether the historical pattern of Labour

:31:37.:31:40.

support being overstated but we should not assume it will be and we

:31:41.:31:47.

cannot assume the patterns of 2015, 2016 in the referendum, will

:31:48.:31:53.

necessarily hold in 2017. Do we need to see companies spending more money

:31:54.:31:56.

on the fieldwork and surveys they carry out in order to ensure they

:31:57.:32:01.

are getting the representation? Pollsters are doing it incredibly

:32:02.:32:08.

difficult job in an economically constrained situation. Newspapers

:32:09.:32:11.

and broadcasters do not pay a lot of money for the polls and recruiting

:32:12.:32:16.

high-quality panels to represent the population is expensive. I think

:32:17.:32:20.

they are within the financial constraints they are operating doing

:32:21.:32:25.

the best they can and trying to innovate methodology. The real

:32:26.:32:29.

challenge of polling is you deal with a moving target between

:32:30.:32:32.

elections and only get one test to see if your methodological changes

:32:33.:32:40.

of work. What about TV debates, manifesto launches, what difference

:32:41.:32:45.

do they make two changes in polling? There is debate academically about

:32:46.:32:49.

how much campaigns matter. The evidence we have from looking at a

:32:50.:32:54.

large number of elections in the UK and cross nationally, the polls tend

:32:55.:32:57.

to converge on the final result steadily. As you approach election

:32:58.:33:02.

day the polls tell you more about the result. We should not expect to

:33:03.:33:06.

see large swings in public opinion in either direction as we head

:33:07.:33:11.

towards Junior eight. Thank you very much. Christian May, do you trust

:33:12.:33:16.

the polls? A lot was made of getting it wrong in 2015, but there have

:33:17.:33:20.

been other polls since and the pollsters have been more accurate.

:33:21.:33:25.

What he said was you need a high-quality panel to represent the

:33:26.:33:32.

nation. We need a fume or are you to make it representative! Do you think

:33:33.:33:36.

they are worth trusting? Yes as an indication. There are many different

:33:37.:33:42.

things you can poll on and when you look at values and issues you get a

:33:43.:33:47.

stark difference if the public thinks 70-30 on a topic it can be a

:33:48.:33:52.

good indication but if it is a straight, yes, no race, you might

:33:53.:33:58.

have 3-4% margin of error but the current polling with a 20% lead for

:33:59.:34:05.

the Conservatives, a 3% margin will not change things. I think the

:34:06.:34:08.

pollsters would have to pack up shop and go away and do something else if

:34:09.:34:15.

they were wrong this time. 15, 20% point lead. If that were wildly

:34:16.:34:21.

wrong, the game would be up. What is interesting is what people are

:34:22.:34:25.

polled on. People like policies and Labour policies. When they are told

:34:26.:34:31.

which party, which leader represents which policies, they change their

:34:32.:34:35.

mind, which I am afraid shows leadership matters more than

:34:36.:34:40.

everything else had wipes out almost everything. It was ever fuss. I

:34:41.:34:45.

think it has become more so and every election gets more

:34:46.:34:48.

presidential. Let's get a round-up of the election campaign news.

:34:49.:34:50.

Thank you for letting me come inside and sit in the office. You have

:34:51.:35:03.

found a chair! It is warm, not raining, I am undercover and it is

:35:04.:35:07.

Friday and things are not as manic in the campaign as the past few days

:35:08.:35:11.

but there has been plenty of news in the past 24 hours, including the

:35:12.:35:15.

return of old faces. This is what has been happening.

:35:16.:35:16.

He thought he'd said goodbye to the cringey photo-op,

:35:17.:35:18.

but former PM David Cameron was back on the campaign trail

:35:19.:35:21.

It's so important, not only that the Conservatives win and win

:35:22.:35:28.

well, so Theresa can negotiate that Brexit deal, so she can stand up

:35:29.:35:32.

to people that want an extreme Brexit either here or in Brussels.

:35:33.:35:35.

Tony Blair has been talking Brexit in Ireland.

:35:36.:35:41.

The game no one wants to play is back.

:35:42.:35:43.

Check out this party election broadcast from the Greens,

:35:44.:35:49.

Although they know carefully crafted pastiches are my thing, right?

:35:50.:35:56.

Father's Day isn't enough for the Lib Dems.

:35:57.:36:00.

They want a whole Father's Month, with a pledge to introduce more

:36:01.:36:03.

Out filming for the BBC Politics Facebook page

:36:04.:36:06.

with some cardboard cutouts, I stumbled into film

:36:07.:36:10.

director Guy Ritchie, who seemed a bit confused.

:36:11.:36:13.

Guy, Guy, who are you going to vote for in

:36:14.:36:15.

Surely he'd recognise BoJo, who made a rare foray

:36:16.:36:29.

Go on, say some funny long words, go on.

:36:30.:36:32.

Guy Ritchie, do not worry, you will be able to see Theresa May in action

:36:33.:36:47.

this afternoon, because she is in the North of England during a speech

:36:48.:36:50.

about patriotism. While everybody is declaring whether or not they are a

:36:51.:36:55.

pacifist, Ukip leader Paul Nuttall said he is not that he would only

:36:56.:36:59.

send soldiers overseas if it was truly in the British national

:37:00.:37:03.

interest. The biggest news, David Dimbleby is sitting just over there.

:37:04.:37:08.

I spotted him earlier. He wants your chair, you will have to move, Adam.

:37:09.:37:16.

Elsewhere, the SNP have accused the Conservatives of poisoning the well

:37:17.:37:17.

of Brexit negotiations. By not yet guaranteeing

:37:18.:37:21.

the continued rights of EU citizens living in the UK -

:37:22.:37:24.

something the SNP have branded We're joined now from Dundee

:37:25.:37:26.

by the SNP's Europe Welcome back to the Daily Politics.

:37:27.:37:35.

Theresa May has said resolving the rights of EU citizens in the UK is a

:37:36.:37:39.

priority in negotiations and she wants to deal with it first. That is

:37:40.:37:46.

hardly poisoning the well? The issue of EU citizens is something she

:37:47.:37:51.

could resolve now. I was at the University of Saint Andrews with the

:37:52.:37:55.

First Minister, one of many institutions where EU citizens make

:37:56.:38:00.

a contribution financially and making communities a better place in

:38:01.:38:03.

which to live and work. The government could have solved this

:38:04.:38:08.

problem a long time ago. As could the EU. It is something up to the UK

:38:09.:38:12.

Government. They could say if you live here and have made your home

:38:13.:38:19.

here, stay. In terms of poisoning the well, we see Theresa May...

:38:20.:38:26.

After this election, there is a big job for parliamentarians which is to

:38:27.:38:30.

scrutinise the work of the government over what kind of

:38:31.:38:35.

relationship we have with Europe, on the environment, EU citizens. We

:38:36.:38:42.

have Theresa May trying to criticise and hurl abuse at European partners

:38:43.:38:44.

that she will have to negotiate with. This is a negotiation as you

:38:45.:38:52.

have said, and what could be utterly contemptible about first offering to

:38:53.:38:56.

deal with this issue before the formal negotiations started, which

:38:57.:39:00.

was rejected by the EU. The government made an attempt to deal

:39:01.:39:06.

with resolving the issue of the fate of EU citizens. Secondly, they have

:39:07.:39:11.

to look at British citizens in EU countries. It is a two-way street.

:39:12.:39:17.

If you take the issue of EU citizens who live here, we should be honoured

:39:18.:39:22.

they have made Scotland and elsewhere in the UK their home. If

:39:23.:39:26.

you look at the massive financial contribution alone, and it is more

:39:27.:39:30.

than that, we would be financially worse off without these EU citizens.

:39:31.:39:35.

Theresa May has not said she does not want them to stay. You are

:39:36.:39:40.

implying she wants them to go. It is good for the UK to keep EU citizens,

:39:41.:39:45.

who contribute so much. In the universities where I live, in our

:39:46.:39:51.

tourist sector. In the food and drinks sector. They make a huge

:39:52.:39:55.

contribution. The government can sort this out now. Given the way

:39:56.:40:00.

Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have been sitting, the abuse they have

:40:01.:40:06.

hurled at the people we need to negotiate with, this could be a

:40:07.:40:10.

little bit of goodwill. They could have solved this problem months ago.

:40:11.:40:15.

Yet they have let uncertainty go on almost a year and that is not

:40:16.:40:20.

acceptable. I am sure that is unsettling for EU citizens living

:40:21.:40:24.

here, but what about the 1.1 million British expats in the EU? Are you

:40:25.:40:29.

not then leaving them out in the cold? The most substantial piece of

:40:30.:40:37.

work done in terms of our future relationship with Europe was done by

:40:38.:40:40.

the Scottish Government just before Christmas whereby it looked as a

:40:41.:40:46.

compromise are looking at the single market, having freedom of movement.

:40:47.:40:52.

I want to concentrate on the EU citizens and a reciprocal deal for

:40:53.:40:58.

the British expats. You asked about that issue as well and that would

:40:59.:41:02.

have solved that problem. We are not alone in thinking freedom of

:41:03.:41:06.

movement is good because it benefits UK citizens living elsewhere in

:41:07.:41:11.

Europe, as well as EU citizens here. That compromise document would have

:41:12.:41:16.

solved the problem. That document has not been used and if we are

:41:17.:41:22.

looking at your proposal to give a unilateral offer to the EU by saying

:41:23.:41:27.

we will guarantee the rights of residency and right to work of all

:41:28.:41:30.

EU citizens that are here, what happens to the 1.1 million British

:41:31.:41:36.

expats? Are you prepared for them to have a less good deal if that is

:41:37.:41:40.

what came back from the EU? We're not saying that which is why we put

:41:41.:41:43.

forward the compromise document which would secure their rights as

:41:44.:41:48.

well. The SNP is the only party who have put together a document that

:41:49.:41:52.

would secure the rights of EU citizens and UK citizens. We have

:41:53.:41:56.

had nothing from the UK Government, an interesting point in this

:41:57.:42:00.

election campaign, where you see detail from the Scottish Government

:42:01.:42:05.

had SNP and bluff and bluster from the Tories in terms of their dealing

:42:06.:42:09.

with Europe. With the referendum campaign to solve a Tory civil war

:42:10.:42:13.

and now we have a general election campaign to stave off another Tory

:42:14.:42:16.

civil war and take advantage of the Labour Party Civil War. We should

:42:17.:42:21.

get to grips with the substantial problems we have got as a result of

:42:22.:42:25.

having to deal with the relationship with Europe and Theresa May's

:42:26.:42:28.

language and using people as bargaining chips is making things

:42:29.:42:34.

work. Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out increasing the top rate of tax with

:42:35.:42:38.

the civil service analysis to the Scottish Government suggesting a

:42:39.:42:41.

risk of ?30 million in lost revenues by the wealthy upping and leaving.

:42:42.:42:46.

Wide you want to increase the top rate to 50p now? This is the same

:42:47.:42:57.

situation as in the past two SNP manifesto is. You want a national

:42:58.:43:02.

50p. Let's be clear with the viewers. The past two manifestos, I

:43:03.:43:07.

think you are picking up on the Finance Minister's remarks reported

:43:08.:43:11.

today. We have been clear we don't want to see Scotland to do that on

:43:12.:43:15.

its own while we are still part of the union and do not have many

:43:16.:43:18.

financial powers, we would like to see it across the UK. It is a

:43:19.:43:23.

Westminster election and we have been clear where we can we will work

:43:24.:43:27.

with other parties for progressive politics as we did in the last

:43:28.:43:31.

Parliament and this is one area where we could work with other

:43:32.:43:35.

parties in the UK Parliament. Does the Scottish Government have the

:43:36.:43:38.

power to raise income tax? If it does so, you are doing so just in

:43:39.:43:44.

Scotland and not elsewhere. You just said in your last answer you have...

:43:45.:43:48.

That is why the Council of economic advisers and remember the first

:43:49.:43:52.

registered took the innovative step of having a council of economic

:43:53.:43:56.

advisers is something she refers to on this. On the point of Westminster

:43:57.:44:01.

and these elections it is something we can work with other parties on

:44:02.:44:06.

issues across the UK, while we are part of the UK, big decisions are

:44:07.:44:11.

made about people in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK and we have a

:44:12.:44:15.

responsibility to work in a constructive manner at Westminster.

:44:16.:44:17.

If you continue talking at great length we cannot put the questions.

:44:18.:44:22.

On the tax rate, you imply the Scottish Government does not have

:44:23.:44:25.

much in the way of power but you have powers to raise income tax and

:44:26.:44:29.

could have done so. You said you had very few powers, the words you use

:44:30.:44:31.

but it was such a long time ago! In terms of raising the level of

:44:32.:44:49.

income tax, you can do that. But why do it now when it is not looked at

:44:50.:44:53.

in terms of being done across the rest of the UK? We are wanting to

:44:54.:45:02.

see a reduction in austerity, because if you look at the cuts to

:45:03.:45:07.

the Scottish Government, they are coming from Westminster, and if we

:45:08.:45:11.

have that austerity, that is less money to spend on education, health,

:45:12.:45:17.

crucial public services. Westminster has a huge role, it is essential we

:45:18.:45:26.

have a strong team of SNP MPs in Westminster, and that is why we can

:45:27.:45:33.

be the official opposition. Is this about a second independence

:45:34.:45:38.

referendum? Why is it not on your SNP campaign leaflets? The Scottish

:45:39.:45:42.

Parliament... This is the start of the campaign, and we are still in

:45:43.:45:49.

favour... You have always known what your lines are an independence. I

:45:50.:45:53.

don't figure that is a great secret. So why isn't it in your campaign

:45:54.:45:59.

leaflet? The Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of independence.

:46:00.:46:03.

What we want to see is Westminster respective decisions made at the

:46:04.:46:04.

Scottish Parliament. Because you don't think you will get as big a

:46:05.:46:09.

mandate this time around? The Tories have got us into this mess on just

:46:10.:46:15.

36% of the vote, and the SNP has 95% of the seats in Scotland, so if

:46:16.:46:18.

those are the two different margins you are comparing this by, I'm not

:46:19.:46:23.

sure that is fair, but we are in this mess based on 36% of people in

:46:24.:46:29.

the UK voted Conservative. I fight against the Conservatives in North

:46:30.:46:32.

East Fife, and we know we have to work hard over the next few weeks.

:46:33.:46:34.

Stephen, thank you very much. Let's take a look now at another

:46:35.:46:38.

of the smaller parties campaign in the general election -

:46:39.:46:41.

the Socialist Party of Great Britain, which is fielding

:46:42.:46:43.

just three candidates. The Socialist Party of Great Britain

:46:44.:46:46.

was founded in 1904 with the aim It's a leaderless organisation,

:46:47.:46:48.

with more than 20,000 It takes inspiration from Marx,

:46:49.:46:52.

but rejects Leninism and Trotskyism. It wants an immediate move

:46:53.:47:00.

to a socialist system with a system As such, they don't believe in other

:47:01.:47:03.

political parties or government. But presumably you are not the

:47:04.:47:18.

leader? Certainly not! Because you don't have a leader? How does that

:47:19.:47:22.

work in practice? We have democracy instead. So how do you make a

:47:23.:47:27.

decision? What we do is in our party every year we have an annual

:47:28.:47:31.

conference, and the conference is attended by delegates from all over

:47:32.:47:34.

the country, issues are discussed, then they go back to their branches

:47:35.:47:39.

and we vote on the issues. When I say democracy I mean we have a

:47:40.:47:43.

system in our party where all relevant information to the party

:47:44.:47:47.

freely available to every member. Every member has the same access to

:47:48.:47:53.

the democratic process. But if you oppose all governments, which I the

:47:54.:47:57.

case, are you standing in a general election? Because we are Democrats.

:47:58.:48:02.

But what is the point? If you don't believe in the political system, why

:48:03.:48:10.

are you standing is in it? We use it to put forward our propositions. To

:48:11.:48:15.

what end? To change people's minds, to explain the system they live

:48:16.:48:18.

under and put forward a better system of living. How can you do

:48:19.:48:22.

that by only putting forward three candidates? By coming on television,

:48:23.:48:27.

hopefully there are millions of people out there. There are millions

:48:28.:48:31.

watching this programme, absolutely! But if you are only fielding three

:48:32.:48:35.

candidates, it is not a very big offer you are making in terms of

:48:36.:48:38.

trying to convert people. You mustn't underestimate people. I'm

:48:39.:48:44.

not underestimating people, I am slightly questioning your ability to

:48:45.:48:48.

appeal to a broad audience. We are a very small party with limited

:48:49.:48:51.

resources. If we had unlimited resources, we would contest every

:48:52.:48:55.

seat where we could delegate a member to do so. But the point of

:48:56.:49:01.

coming on television like this is to put forward our case against

:49:02.:49:05.

capitalism and socialism. If we look at Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, why

:49:06.:49:08.

don't you just support him of the Labour Party? It isn't a socialist

:49:09.:49:13.

party, it is a capitalist party and it always has been. We are a

:49:14.:49:18.

principled party. You have just had a chap on the Labour Party talking

:49:19.:49:22.

about defence. The Labour Party's principles change with the political

:49:23.:49:28.

whim. The Communist Party said they were happy with Jeremy Corbyn and

:49:29.:49:31.

the Labour Party manifesto. You are different to them, what what are the

:49:32.:49:35.

differences between you, and the other socialist party, what marks

:49:36.:49:44.

you out? What we want, what we stand for is socialism. But is that common

:49:45.:49:48.

ownership and democratic control of the means of producing wealth,

:49:49.:49:52.

carried out in the interest of the whole community. What they stand for

:49:53.:49:57.

estate capitalism who believe in the state, whereas we do not. We believe

:49:58.:50:04.

that for society to run correctly, it has to be run democratically, and

:50:05.:50:08.

that means that the responsibility has to be shared, otherwise it is an

:50:09.:50:15.

immature system. This is part of the political debate, but does this

:50:16.:50:17.

party have anything to add in terms of the general election? Probably

:50:18.:50:23.

quite useful for Jeremy Corbyn to have somebody to the left of him!

:50:24.:50:29.

Have you found your members looking towards the Labour Party? The Labour

:50:30.:50:34.

Party has brought in lots of people, have any of your members move

:50:35.:50:40.

towards them? I think we had one member a couple of years ago join,

:50:41.:50:43.

but our membership is fairly small but fairly stable, because we have a

:50:44.:50:50.

unique way of viewing society, and a unique proposition to put forward as

:50:51.:50:55.

far as the future goes. What about the nationalisation of the railways?

:50:56.:51:01.

What is your view on that? It's not common ownership, it state

:51:02.:51:03.

ownership. So what would you do? What we would do? The point is, we

:51:04.:51:10.

do not propose to run capitalism. But running the role is, how they

:51:11.:51:14.

run? On the basis of common ownership. They would be a resource

:51:15.:51:23.

that the whole of society would produce and run for itself. Your

:51:24.:51:30.

party also calls for a wage list, moneyless society, I was trying to

:51:31.:51:39.

think of a comparison. Kibbutz in Israel used to run in a similar way.

:51:40.:51:43.

What is your view of some of these policies? Danny Mac be interested to

:51:44.:51:47.

know that the chief economics at the Bank of England has also talked

:51:48.:51:52.

about a cashless society, but he was talking about moving away from hard

:51:53.:51:56.

cash to something purely digital. I think society stripped of the

:51:57.:52:02.

freedom and liberty that having money and personal choice gives them

:52:03.:52:05.

would be miserable. Is it a burden? I think lack of it is more of a

:52:06.:52:13.

burden. All wealth in society are socially produced, and so it should

:52:14.:52:16.

be socially administered. We live in a society that is based on

:52:17.:52:20.

employment, so you have employers and employed. There is a French

:52:21.:52:25.

word, it means to use, to take advantage of. We want a society

:52:26.:52:32.

where we give freely of our social creativity and take freely from

:52:33.:52:36.

social production. Then no longer do we have to sell ourselves for a

:52:37.:52:42.

price, we will be free, and we will live a life without price. Any

:52:43.:52:45.

examples of that going on at the moment? Human beings have to sell

:52:46.:52:52.

themselves on the labour market, the sordid process of selling ourselves

:52:53.:52:55.

on the labour market, somebody will use us for their ends. Can you give

:52:56.:53:00.

me an example of where that could work successfully and does work?

:53:01.:53:09.

Venezuelan? That is cheap. This is much more like Christianity in its

:53:10.:53:14.

purest form. Consider the lilies of the field. It is that kind of

:53:15.:53:18.

utopianism. It has a place. Don't all talk at once. Final word to

:53:19.:53:25.

Danny. It is not utopian. What allows capitalism to function is the

:53:26.:53:32.

egregious case of mistaken identity. We all share the same ancestors, we

:53:33.:53:36.

are all members of the same family, that is our common identity. With a

:53:37.:53:41.

common identity, it is impossible to exploit orca worse in anyway, and

:53:42.:53:49.

capitalism runs on mistaken identity. Danny Lafferty, we have to

:53:50.:53:50.

finish there. We may be saying adios,

:53:51.:53:53.

adieu and auf wiedersehen to the European Union,

:53:54.:53:55.

but as the Prime Minister assured us earlier this week, it

:53:56.:53:58.

will still be wilkommen, bienvenue and welcome

:53:59.:54:00.

for the Brits when it comes to the Eurovision Song Contest

:54:01.:54:02.

in Kiev tomorrow. But will our erstwhile European

:54:03.:54:04.

partners deliver a Brexit Macro I have always wanted to say

:54:05.:54:06.

that! Let's remind ourselves

:54:07.:54:13.

what this bit of European # Knowing my fate

:54:14.:54:14.

is to be with you...# # Rise like a Phoenix

:54:15.:54:23.

out of the ashes # Spin my head and

:54:24.:54:50.

# Power to the boys that played rock and roll

:54:51.:55:04.

# And soon you will find that there comes a time

:55:05.:55:13.

We've been joined by Chris West, author of Eurovision!A History of

:55:14.:55:31.

You must have a lot of fun doing this? I love it. I have seen every

:55:32.:55:41.

Eurovision is on but has ever been some. Is that right? Except for two

:55:42.:55:48.

years where they have lost all the tapes, the first one, 56, and in

:55:49.:55:51.

1964, they lost the tape, and someone wants find a box with

:55:52.:55:57.

Eurovision 1964 on it, opened its... And it was empty. Crime of the

:55:58.:56:03.

century! What impact do you think Brexit will have on our role? I

:56:04.:56:07.

don't know, and it is interesting. Eurovision is a signalling mechanism

:56:08.:56:11.

whereby other countries will pass judgment on another country, so if

:56:12.:56:16.

you look at 2003, Iraq, we came last. It wasn't a great song or

:56:17.:56:22.

performance, but I think out there, people were saying they didn't

:56:23.:56:27.

approve of that. What will we get this year? We don't know. It might

:56:28.:56:30.

be that Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal... Will they take their

:56:31.:56:38.

revenge? If they are having a horrible time, they might vote for

:56:39.:56:54.

us so we might get the douze point, then? Politics is a big deal in this

:56:55.:57:00.

Eurovision Song contest. I have to say my heart slightly sank when I

:57:01.:57:09.

saw the countries voting for each other rather than the songs. That

:57:10.:57:12.

changed when they change the judging system. You should watch! Do you

:57:13.:57:18.

watch it? My grandchildren love it, it is brain much a kid thing. What

:57:19.:57:23.

is good to remember and what is good about your book is it was started at

:57:24.:57:26.

the same time at the beginning of the whole European idea, and it came

:57:27.:57:30.

from that sort of idealism. And it is kind of bonkers and crazy now we

:57:31.:57:39.

have Egypt and... Europe has grown! And Australia, which is wonderful!

:57:40.:57:46.

So we are taking it broadly! But Polly does make an interesting point

:57:47.:57:50.

about what it was there for in the beginning, and that is the point.

:57:51.:57:56.

Yes, the founder was a great friend of the founding of the EU, so it

:57:57.:58:05.

does come from the same root. Theresa May pulled a terrible face

:58:06.:58:07.

because she plainly thinks we will be punished, and we certainly

:58:08.:58:14.

deserve to be. Maybe we will get some Euro-sceptic solidarity from

:58:15.:58:16.

the countries that I Euro-sceptic, maybe a sympathy vote. I have never

:58:17.:58:22.

watched it, but we might go into the top five! It is never too late. I am

:58:23.:58:26.

going to quickly finish it there, thank you very much for coming in.

:58:27.:58:29.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:30.:58:32.

So Polly, Christian, what's the correct answer?

:58:33.:58:40.

Is it just the amount the parties spend the whole general election? As

:58:41.:58:47.

long as the returns are signed off properly I think 140. Let's find out

:58:48.:58:55.

if mark, my political collie, is there and can give is the answer.

:58:56.:59:00.

What is the answer? After some number crunching, we found out that

:59:01.:59:03.

the Government expects the UK general election to cost the

:59:04.:59:09.

taxpayer ?143 million, that is ?101 million spent on printing the postal

:59:10.:59:13.

vote, ballot papers, the tens of thousands of polling stations being

:59:14.:59:16.

manned and counting millions of votes, and ?42 million on election

:59:17.:59:21.

mailings, distributions for the candidates, and that is according to

:59:22.:59:24.

the Cabinet Office and Northern Ireland Office. Thank you very much

:59:25.:59:29.

for crunching the numbers, well done, Polly.

:59:30.:59:31.

Thanks to Polly, Christian and all my guests.

:59:32.:59:34.

The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now.

:59:35.:59:39.

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