19/05/2017 Daily Politics


19/05/2017

Jo Coburn is joined by Sam Coates of the Times and Red Pepper's Hilary Wainwright to discuss reaction to the Conservative manifesto and the Libertarian Party.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

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Labour go on the offensive, attacking the Conservatives'

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manifesto plans as a "savage attack on vulnerable pensioners".

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A day after Theresa May launched her manifesto

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for Britain, Forward, Together, we'll assess

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the Conservatives' plans for government.

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What's the right level of immigration for Britain,

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We'll hear from the boss of a new think tank which argues

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for a net immigration target of at least 200,000.

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And we'll profile the real star of the election

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night results programme, the tried-and-tested

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If the swing, for example, is one point consistently,

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and on the average to the Conservatives,

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they are not only in again, but they will have an increased

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And with me for the whole of the programme today,

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Sam Coates of the Times, and Hilary Wainwright,

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founder and editor of the left-wing magazine Red Pepper.

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Let's start with last night's election debate on ITV,

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featuring five opposition leaders but not Theresa May

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The Brexit negotiations between Brussels and London over

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these next few months will lead to outcomes that none of us can

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And that means at the end, you should have the final say.

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There were no clarity as to what Leave actually meant.

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Theresa May is not just pursuing Brexit.

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She is pursuing a hard, extreme Brexit.

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People voted to leave the European Union.

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They didn't just vote to control our borders.

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Are the people who work in our NHS the best in the world?

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Is our NHS the best funded in the world?

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Have I? I'm sorry about that.

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There's no need to put up taxation to pay for this.

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We can simply take it from the foreign aid budget.

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Take it from the poorest people in the world.

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Very briefly, Nicola Sturgeon and then Tim Farron.

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Paul is talking about taking resources from some of the poorest

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We contribute through foreign aid, not just to help the poorest

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people in the world, which I think as it happens

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is the right thing to do, but also to make this country safer.

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Paul says that is where he wants to get the money.

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The question he still hasn't answered, if he's going to stop EU

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migration, where is he getting the staff for the

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summer the highlights from last night. Who were the winners and

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losers? Sam? -- some of the highlights. I did not watch the

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entire thing, after a long day at Halifax, covering the Conservative

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manifesto. What you had last night were politicians who most people in

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the country cannot vote for, so it is hard to ascribe winners when

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really Tim Farron is the only national politicians. Ukip bar only

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standing in 400 or so seats cash are. The greens are standing in

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around 500. It is a cure is, says Jim. Nicola Sturgeon did well, she's

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a good performer in the circumstances -- it was a key areas

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conversation. Did you think that Theresa May and

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Jeremy Corbyn made the right decision in not taking part? Theresa

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May is determined to not be accountable, to not be questioned,

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and when she was questioned on the streets it was a very awkward

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exchange. The fact that she would not be debated, even David Cameron

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was willing to be debated and joined in a debate with all of them. Jeremy

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Corbyn had to expose that fact. Ed Miliband did take part last time?

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Because David Cameron did. It was a proper debate about who was going to

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be in government, but now with Theresa May disappearing, it is not

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a debate. I missed Jeremy Corbyn's argument, because there was one

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woman who was talking about making ends meet and no one mentioned the

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importance of unions and workers being organised to get decent wages.

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But I understand why he didn't do it. Do you think they made the right

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tackle ageing? -- the right cancellation? It was hard to get

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them to turn up in that kind of format, but you do want the people

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who are potentially the next Prime Minister to appear before the public

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in an election campaign, and that is right and fair, so, come on guys,

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get it together, we want to see you together. Natalie also made an

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appearance, whoever she is! The question for today is,

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how has Donald Trump described the investigation into alleged

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collusion between his presidential At the end of the show Sam

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and Hilary will give So, 24 hours on from the publication

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of the Conservative manifesto, and our back-room team here have

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been busy reading all 84 pages So what are the big changes

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Theresa May is proposing compared The manifesto moves the target

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for balancing the budget to 2025, back from the current aim

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of "as early as possible The current "tax triple lock",

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which pledges no increases in income tax, national insurance

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or VAT, will be ditched As for the "pensions triple-lock",

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which guarantees that state pensions rise each year

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by whichever is the highest out of the consumer price index,

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average earnings or 2.5%, the manifesto lays out that it

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will become a "Double Lock" in 2020, tracking either inflation

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or average earnings. The Winter Fuel Allowance

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for pensioners, the annual one-off payment of between ?100-300

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per person, would Under a Conservative government

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those needing social care in old age will be now able to retain ?100,000

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in assets before paying for care, up from the previous floor of ?23,250,

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although the value of their property The manifesto also pledges a minimum

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?8 billion real terms increase in the budget for NHS

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England by 2022. Free school lunches for infants

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in England would be replaced by free breakfasts for all

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primary school children. There is a guarantee that no school

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will have its budget cut under the new national

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funding formula. And the ban on setting

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up new grammar schools The second part of

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the Leveson Inquiry, which would investigate the culture,

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pratices and ethics of the press, would be scrapped in the event

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of a Conservative victory. And, the yet-to-be-activated

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Section 40 of the Crime and Courts Act 2014,

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which would force newspapers to pay their opponent's legal costs

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linked to libel and privacy actions, And finally the Fixed

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Terms Parliament Act, which introduced fixed-terms

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elections to the UK parliament, will also be repealed

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under a Tory government. We asked the Conservative Party

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for a minister but none Instead we are joined

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by Rupert Harrison, George Osborne's former Chief of Staff who now works

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at the investment management Why were there no costings in this

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manifesto? That is a good question. When you are the party in

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government, you have huge dominance on economic competence. You don't

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need costings, they figure they can get away with it, everyone assumes

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they are in power and it will dealt with in the budget. You can ask them

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questions but I suppose they can get away with it. Doesn't it show a

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level of arrogance to the voting public? When you have repeatedly

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criticised Labour for not having detailed costings, which they have

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now provided, that you can get away with no tax and spending plans in

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detail? That is a little unfair. The central characteristic of the

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manifesto, it was quite brave, an impressive attempt to do something

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difficult things. The Labour Party is doing a classic attack on winter

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fuel payments and social care reforms, but these are quite brave

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and difficult things to put in the manifesto. They could have gone for

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vote maximisation strategy to win at all costs. The opposing Eichmann,

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they could have been more radical? -- the opposing argument. Just focus

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on the figures. If you are producing a manifesto that doesn't add up or

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we can't tell if it does, people will ask questions about your

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competence? You earn competence in government by demonstrating what you

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do and the fact the deficit is down... But not eliminated as George

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Osborne said. They have brought themselves more wriggle room on the

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fiscal side by pushing out the deadline for getting back to a

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surplus which can absorb any issues that they have around costings. I

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don't think this will be the major weakness of this manifesto. They can

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weather any attacks. Let's have a look at the tax and spending

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implications. The triple tax lock was brought in and David Cameron and

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the George Osborne has been abandoned -- under. So we will

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expect tax rises? This is a brave and right decision. It was a gimmick

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when they used it, David Cameron? I wouldn't use that word, but it was a

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bad policy born of a tight election. Having a new Prime Minister and a

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large lead in the polls means you can get rid of some barnacles and I

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think the tax lock was a barnacle, like the winter chill payment, which

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was -- winter fuel payment, which was something David Cameron felt he

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should promise on. It reduces flexibility for the dead thing we

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should expect large tax rises. -- I don't think. It is more around, you

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saw the way they got tripped up on the national insurance rise. I don't

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think they are planning some huge tax rise. The Institute for Fiscal

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Studies said the Conservatives will have to ?40 billion, so we can

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expect tax rises? That can be achieved by the spending plans which

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are already in place and hopefully if the economy continues growing,

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there is natural economic growth. I don't think there's a Big Apple to

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be filled, I don't think that the reason. -- I don't think there's a

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big gap. Talking about social care, as one of the brave proposals, in

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your words, does it go far enough? There are two different issues in

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social care and I don't think it deals with one of them but it deals

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with the other. It doesn't deal with the idea of insurance. Generally we

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are able to insure against catastrophes, the NHS against

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illnesses, we can insure against our house burning down, for example, but

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we can't insure against needing care in old age. The options are private

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insurance, and that is what we reforms were about, that capping

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that, and... The last manifesto said that was going to be lamented. That

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was untested and that was always a bit of a gamble -- said that was

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going to be implemented. Both of these are very difficult for

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different reasons and they have chosen not to really go for either.

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They have gone for a progressive reform of the way that the means

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test works and that is going to release a fair amount of resources

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to social care which is the other big issue. A large number of people

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are going to have their care costs go up. More people are going to pay,

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that is why it is brave. It is very clear that that is the system.

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?100,000, that is not as I as it was under David Cameron, which was

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?118,000? -- not as high. I think that is quite clever, it says you

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are not going to have to go down to your last pennies. It has created a

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new regional postcode lottery. Areas with low house prices, people get

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state support very quickly, because when the assets fall below ?100,000,

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but in London and the south-east, most homeowners will not get a penny

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towards their care. Those homeowners have benefited hugely from the

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increase in house prices, you could say. This is something which has

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been needed to be done, and people have been nervous about it but now

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we have a window with a popular Prime Minister and they are now

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using this for something. Is it a brave thing? At least Theresa May

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has dipped her toe in the water on social care and she has gone for a

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model, even if you don't like it. How will this be received? This

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manifesto is a very rational manifesto, it is a manifesto to be

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implemented after an election but not ideal during the election

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campaign because somethings have the potential to be quite unpopular. I'm

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struck this morning that this complicated social care proposal is

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already being talked about at the school gate. They are calling this

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the dementia tax. Exactly, and the prospect of people paying much more

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is a concept that voters can quickly understand and that could be fairly

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traumatic for the Conservative Party if that causes a big reaction.

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It must mean that Theresa May feels very confident, to put such a risky

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proposal like this to voters, it is a gamble? I think the whole

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manifesto shows an incredible hubris overconfidence. The language,

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referring to manifesto commitments as barnacles. A manifesto is meant

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to be a way in which people can be caught to account, prime ministers

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and governments. So they need to be specific. And this isn't. It was

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like an elegant, not that elegant, fluent, political try from a

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postgraduate student. There was no actual specifics, sides this one on

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social care. On social capital I think the key thing is addressing

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the question of actual care, what has happened to local authorities,

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old people's homes, the cuts to local authorities meaning that those

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homes are actually really poor quality, workers are not being

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valued, skilled, trained, so actually, there is no adequate care.

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And that needs to be addressed to go and is it not masking the fact that

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there have been swingeing cuts to local authorities, and therefore now

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the onus will be on people who have valuable assets? I don't think it

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makes sense to critique the manifesto for posing political

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risks, and also being vague. I think it has big, controversial things in

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it. Also, when thinking about how the public will respond, yes, there

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will probably be a political cost, and in that sense it reminds me a

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little bit of 2010 and the Conservative manifesto then, about

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raising the state pension age and things, I think it probably did cost

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us votes, but it was worth it for the authority it gave us to then go

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on and do different things. But it has got to work, though, hasn't it?

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But I think also, you get rewarded for honesty. People will say, here's

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a politician who is not playing games, she is telling us some

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difficult truths. The voters... But she is also potentially asking a lot

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more people to pay a lot more for their care? But as you say, they see

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the need. Well, do they? If you look at the means testing of the winter

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fuel allowance, how much will that raise but with a number I have seen

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is 1.7 billion, I don't know. It depends on the level. But again, it

:18:10.:18:20.

is an irony, in a way. It is an extremely progressive way to raise

:18:21.:18:25.

money for something which is badly needed. I don't think it is

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progressive, because the point about the original idea was universal

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provision. And that enabled people to... There's very vivid figures on

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the numbers of people who just do not claim because of means testing,

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and that is what Beveridge was trying to... The point is, it is

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taking money from better off people to find something which helps

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everyone. But that is done through the tax system. I am not rich, but

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my winter fuel allowance and my pension is all part of my tax and I

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get taxed on it so it goes back into the system. So actually, it is

:19:01.:19:05.

sneaky to say, we're going to be brave and cut the winter fuel

:19:06.:19:08.

allowance. Firstly, a lot of older people do not claim it. And more

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people will end up not claiming it, though. Anybody wealthy is taxed on

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it anyway, so it goes back into the system. So actually, it is not

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really a practical measure. Better off people, otherwise known as

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Conservative voters, I have got Tory MPs and saying, we have got a social

:19:28.:19:31.

care problem potentially, we are using free school meals for infants,

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how does this manifesto help, rather than hurt? We have got another three

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weeks of this, it is not terribly useful.

:19:44.:19:47.

Labour have been on the attack this morning, at a press conference

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in central london the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell,

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branded the Conservative manifesto's proposals for pensioners

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Let me just mention the issue with regard to older people.

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Yesterday, the Conservative Party abandoned older people.

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The tearing-up of the triple lock, the attack on the winter fuel

:20:07.:20:16.

allowance, and yes, the plans on care costs

:20:17.:20:18.

I just want to mention the issue around the winter fuel allowance.

:20:19.:20:25.

I'm one of those people who campaigned against fuel poverty

:20:26.:20:31.

for a number of years and welcomed the introduction of

:20:32.:20:34.

And we've been joined by Labour's election campaign

:20:35.:20:39.

Welcome back to The Daily Politics. Listening to Rupert Harrison, this

:20:40.:20:52.

is a progressive measure in terms of social care and means testing, and

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something which should be applauded? I am proud of the record that the

:20:58.:21:01.

Labour government had in lifting 900,000 elderly people out of

:21:02.:21:04.

poverty. That is a record to be proud of, and in part we did that

:21:05.:21:08.

through measures like the winter fuel allowance. I think it is a

:21:09.:21:12.

retrograde step. As we have already heard, the progressive way of

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dealing with the winter fuel allowance is to make sure that those

:21:16.:21:19.

wealthy pensioners have it clawed back through the taxation system.

:21:20.:21:22.

But why is it not progressive to make those who are better off pay a

:21:23.:21:28.

bit more or get a bit less from the state? Let's look at the winter fuel

:21:29.:21:33.

allowance first of all - why should richer pensioners get it? Well, we

:21:34.:21:37.

want to make sure that everybody who qualifies for the winter fuel

:21:38.:21:41.

allowance gets it. The problem with means testing, as we've heard is

:21:42.:21:46.

that there are a sizeable number of people who do not apply for

:21:47.:21:51.

means-tested things. For example, like the pension credits, there are

:21:52.:21:55.

about a third of pensioners who are eligible for pension credit who... I

:21:56.:22:02.

take that point, we have said that. But as a principle, do you agree

:22:03.:22:08.

that it is a progressive way to look at this particular aspect? What is

:22:09.:22:11.

progressive is making sure that all pensioners at the winter fuel

:22:12.:22:16.

allowance and clawing back the additional money from the richest

:22:17.:22:19.

pensioners to the taxation system. Because actually, what is being

:22:20.:22:23.

talked about here are around 10 million pensioners, potentially

:22:24.:22:27.

losing their winter fuel allowance, part of the 12 million pensioners

:22:28.:22:30.

that get it. That's not progressive, that is an attack on pensioners.

:22:31.:22:37.

Let's have a look at the pensions triple lock, because now the

:22:38.:22:41.

Conservative manifesto is saying it will be a triple look until 2020,

:22:42.:22:47.

followed by a double lock. Why did you not do something similar, why

:22:48.:22:51.

are you gold-plating it, when young people are struggling to go to

:22:52.:22:54.

college, or even to get on the housing ladder? I'm sure you know,

:22:55.:23:02.

it is not either or. We want to make sure that young people are looked

:23:03.:23:05.

after and that's why we are committed to building homes and...

:23:06.:23:10.

Why are you gold-plating a guarantee for better of pensioners, the triple

:23:11.:23:13.

lock? Because the pensioners today have made this country what it is

:23:14.:23:19.

and I think we should owe them a guarantee that whatever is the

:23:20.:23:24.

highest, prices, wages or 2.5%, they are guaranteed that in their

:23:25.:23:28.

pension. I understand the policy, what I'm saying is, why do you

:23:29.:23:33.

believe that it is the right thing to do, to continue the pensions

:23:34.:23:37.

triple lock, when in fact the double lock would serve pretty well as

:23:38.:23:43.

well? In fact, the double lock would have resulted in the same cohort of

:23:44.:23:48.

pensioners receiving ?330 less. So, of course, for those pensioners, the

:23:49.:23:54.

pensions triple lock has actually served them well in the past. We

:23:55.:23:56.

want to give them the confidence that in the future, they will have

:23:57.:24:02.

the same guarantees. What about the care proposals, are they not

:24:03.:24:06.

progressive? Well, we support a cap on social care provision Google at

:24:07.:24:10.

what level? We have said that we will have a cross-party review in

:24:11.:24:14.

the next Parliament. We have, we had to do my proposal. Social care, as

:24:15.:24:23.

you have said yourselves, is already cut to the bone so why can't you

:24:24.:24:28.

give me a cap level? Well, that has to be discussed. What we are talking

:24:29.:24:36.

about is ?8 billion extra into adult social care, ?1 billion immediately

:24:37.:24:39.

in the first year, not least to help raise the wages of those people who

:24:40.:24:46.

are working in pretty shocking conditions on 15 minute, zero-hours

:24:47.:24:54.

contracts. What about a proposal which puts more of the burden on

:24:55.:24:58.

people with broad shoulders, people with ?100,000 or less in assets will

:24:59.:25:03.

get the same? Because we think a cap is a fairer way of doing it. This is

:25:04.:25:08.

an attack on elderly people. Not the poorest, who you claim to help? We

:25:09.:25:14.

do not support the Conservatives' proposals, let me make that clear.

:25:15.:25:18.

We will discuss an appropriate cap level in the next Parliament. What

:25:19.:25:22.

do you think about this more Universalist approach by Labour,

:25:23.:25:26.

compared to what the Tories would say is a more progressive look? I

:25:27.:25:32.

think universalism is progressive. Beverage after all was not from

:25:33.:25:38.

Labour, he was a rather patronising liberal! But he believed in that

:25:39.:25:45.

universal provision, because you get the funds through a proper taxation

:25:46.:25:50.

system which means taxing inheritance, taxing wealth, taxing

:25:51.:25:56.

corporate games. These are to some extent assets, aren't they? Yes, but

:25:57.:26:02.

it could have been done more systematically, without the means

:26:03.:26:05.

test, that's the point. That is what is good about the Labour manifesto,

:26:06.:26:09.

that there is a clear reversal of all these concessions to the

:26:10.:26:12.

wealthy, people who have got unearned wealth. If you attack those

:26:13.:26:19.

with a progressive tax system, which can then find a universal provision

:26:20.:26:27.

and actual care... What about the fact, Andrew Gwynne is saying they

:26:28.:26:30.

have still not decided on a cap level, is it still credible to be

:26:31.:26:33.

talking about proposals and cross-party talks, wanting more

:26:34.:26:39.

talks, about this issue? The problem with setting is a cap is that you

:26:40.:26:44.

have got to work out where the money will come from. Labour are kicking

:26:45.:26:48.

that down the road and it is interesting, what Labour have done

:26:49.:26:57.

today. Actually, pretty much, Labour have landed on a weak spot for the

:26:58.:27:01.

Conservatives, social care and winter fuel. They have hit them hard

:27:02.:27:06.

this morning in a way which has actually impressed but a few Tories

:27:07.:27:10.

that I have been speaking to. But on the possible, in order to make their

:27:11.:27:14.

argument, Labour is this morning having to argue against means

:27:15.:27:18.

testing. John McDonnell is having to say that I don't think means testing

:27:19.:27:22.

for winter fuel allowance is a good idea. That opens up difficult

:27:23.:27:27.

costumes for Labour, such as, why should John McDonnell get the winter

:27:28.:27:32.

fuel allowance? That's because you asked him. That's because I asked

:27:33.:27:36.

him at the press conference. There is another issue, though, on

:27:37.:27:44.

universalism versus means testing - if you do believe in that, which is

:27:45.:27:48.

perfectly credible, will he be restoring child benefit? Look, we

:27:49.:27:53.

are where we are with that particular benefit. Either you

:27:54.:27:57.

believe in the principle of universalism, all you don't?

:27:58.:27:59.

Absolutely, but that decision has been taken by the previous

:28:00.:28:03.

parliament. What we are talking about here is a specific proposal by

:28:04.:28:08.

the Conservatives, in their uncosted manifesto. Jo, at least you have got

:28:09.:28:13.

the document which you can go through which says where we would be

:28:14.:28:18.

raising revenue, where we would be taxing, where we would be getting

:28:19.:28:21.

the funding for our proposals. The Conservatives are getting away with

:28:22.:28:27.

producing a document that has, you know, 80 pledges, that doesn't give

:28:28.:28:30.

any indication whether funding is coming from. That's really

:28:31.:28:35.

important, that we hold the Tories to account on this. Finally, on

:28:36.:28:38.

immigration, you don't have any target at all for net migration - is

:28:39.:28:44.

that credible? I think it is, because what we have said is, under

:28:45.:28:50.

the Brexit negotiations, there are going to be controls on immigration,

:28:51.:28:56.

but we are going to have an immigration policy which serves our

:28:57.:29:02.

economy, because what we have to take into account is where there are

:29:03.:29:07.

still skill shortages in the NHS, in the care sector, in agriculture and

:29:08.:29:11.

tourism, and how we fill those gaps in a way which helps our economy.

:29:12.:29:14.

Andrew Gwynne, thank you. Let's take a look now

:29:15.:29:17.

at what else has been happening It has been a pact week of manifesto

:29:18.:29:28.

launches. As the parties - about from one event to the next, not

:29:29.:29:32.

everything always goes to plan. Yesterday we saw the Tory battle bus

:29:33.:29:36.

with a bit of engine trouble. Today we are hearing that the Ukip for bus

:29:37.:29:42.

seems to have had a run-in of its own. Meanwhile, the parties

:29:43.:29:45.

continued to cry out for your donations to help their cause.

:29:46.:29:50.

Luckily for them, there's always one or two generous people around who

:29:51.:29:53.

are willing to fork out. So, the Electoral Commission has now

:29:54.:29:56.

published the first set of figures to show us who is quids in. The

:29:57.:30:03.

Conservatives' coffers were boosted by more cash in the first week of

:30:04.:30:07.

the campaign than all the parties main rivals put together. They

:30:08.:30:12.

disclosed donations totalling ?4 million. Labour had ?2.8 million and

:30:13.:30:19.

the Lib Dems, ?180,000. But the biggest single donation to a party

:30:20.:30:23.

was from the Unite union, which gave ?2.3 million to Labour. Nicola

:30:24.:30:28.

Sturgeon told BBC Breakfast this morning there should be less focus

:30:29.:30:35.

on appearances. Women politicians, if they are always reduced to how

:30:36.:30:39.

they look and what they wear, then we are saying something that we

:30:40.:30:42.

shouldn't be saying about the status of women. And Ukip leader Paul

:30:43.:30:47.

Nuttall has postponed a visit to Clacton this afternoon. Apparently

:30:48.:30:51.

the parties battle bus has been damaged in an accident. We are told

:30:52.:30:53.

to visit may go ahead tomorrow. Spero thought for the rosette makers

:30:54.:31:03.

who have been making rosettes for the last 30 years. Cash spare a

:31:04.:31:09.

thought. Usually they have three months the ready, but now they are

:31:10.:31:12.

rushing to get them ready in three weeks. What noise does this farmyard

:31:13.:31:18.

animal make? When Boris Johnson visited a bakery near Bristol he was

:31:19.:31:27.

really milking it. So we've had the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem manifesto

:31:28.:31:30.

is and we are still waiting on the Ukip manifesto which is expected to

:31:31.:31:35.

come next week. It is expected to appeal to his core supporters such

:31:36.:31:39.

as a cut in foreign aid and that one in one out immigration policy.

:31:40.:31:44.

Looking ahead to the weekend, no letup yet. Theresa May and Jeremy

:31:45.:31:51.

Corbyn will be out campaigning. With Jeremy Corbyn still hoping to draw

:31:52.:31:55.

the crowds at his rallies. With all that, do you have campaign fatigue?

:31:56.:32:02.

We don't here. We have the stamina to go all the way. STUDIO: I will

:32:03.:32:11.

put that question to you in other -- another week's time.

:32:12.:32:14.

The swingometer has been a regular feature of election night coverage

:32:15.:32:17.

It was designed to explain the unfolding results in visual terms.

:32:18.:32:21.

What started off as a simple hand made prop has developed using

:32:22.:32:24.

Jenny Kumah's been looking at the evolution of the device.

:32:25.:32:35.

# It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing #.

:32:36.:32:38.

If it's election night, there's a swingometer.

:32:39.:32:43.

It first appeared on national TV in 1959, showing how movements

:32:44.:32:45.

of votes from one party to another translated into parliamentary seats.

:32:46.:32:50.

If the swing, for example, is one point consistently,

:32:51.:32:52.

and on the average to the Conservatives,

:32:53.:32:56.

they are not only in again, but they will have an increased

:32:57.:32:59.

What started off as a crude looking cardboard model has become more

:33:00.:33:06.

Nowadays it's all about virtual reality.

:33:07.:33:12.

For the 2015 general election the BBC transformed this room

:33:13.:33:15.

to show the Conservative path to power.

:33:16.:33:18.

Long gone are the days of just showing the shifts

:33:19.:33:23.

If we turn the swingometer to show the Conservative Lib Dems contest,

:33:24.:33:28.

that was a big part of the story in 2015.

:33:29.:33:35.

And with polls forecasting big gains for the Scottish National Party,

:33:36.:33:38.

the first SNP and Labour swingometer featured.

:33:39.:33:40.

So how did the concept of swing first come about?

:33:41.:33:42.

And just how useful is all this data?

:33:43.:33:45.

Well, it can all be traced back to this man.

:33:46.:33:47.

As a student here in Oxford he was playing around

:33:48.:33:55.

with the results of the 1945 election and he decided to record

:33:56.:33:58.

I'd been desperately keen on cricket statistics and in the war

:33:59.:34:05.

they stopped first-class cricket and I switched to

:34:06.:34:07.

In my spare time I played around with past election results.

:34:08.:34:13.

His theory led to the creation of the swingometer and decades

:34:14.:34:16.

Is that what's called being a syphologist?

:34:17.:34:22.

It's a somewhat indiscreet word that was coined by my mentor

:34:23.:34:33.

When ten seats were in, you could predict the final

:34:34.:34:38.

outcome on the assumption of reasonable regularity.

:34:39.:34:41.

They wouldn't all have had the same swing, but the average in those

:34:42.:34:45.

first seats came very near to the average swing

:34:46.:34:47.

Nobody had ever done that before, analysed elections

:34:48.:34:52.

And once you could look at the results in terms of percentages,

:34:53.:34:57.

He was there at the beginning and astonishingly he is still alive,

:34:58.:35:01.

still analysing elections, and only this week

:35:02.:35:03.

But one of the key challenges for the 2017 swingometers could be

:35:04.:35:11.

If you look at the polls at this election they suggest the Ukip vote

:35:12.:35:18.

We don't know that's going to happen, but if it does,

:35:19.:35:24.

and a lot of those voters switch to the Conservatives then

:35:25.:35:26.

the Conservative vote share will go up but that doesn't necessarily mean

:35:27.:35:29.

On the swingometer that will show up as a swing between Labour

:35:30.:35:34.

and the Conservatives, but that won't be telling

:35:35.:35:37.

you the story of what is happening at the election.

:35:38.:35:43.

As smaller parties have played a bigger role

:35:44.:35:46.

in the election result, more swingometers have featured

:35:47.:35:54.

and in 2017 there will be a total of five with the first ever showing

:35:55.:35:58.

the contest between the Conservatives and

:35:59.:35:59.

We've been joined in the studio by veteran political

:36:00.:36:09.

journalist Michael Crick, who you saw in Jenny's film there.

:36:10.:36:11.

I understand you are writing a book on the great man himself. What

:36:12.:36:23.

effect did he have on the way we cover elections? He has created his

:36:24.:36:30.

own science, really, from that thing he described in 1945, where he took

:36:31.:36:35.

The Times guide and he saw what it had was raw figures, and he turned

:36:36.:36:39.

them into percentages and he spotted the trends and that led to the

:36:40.:36:45.

concept of swing, the swingometer. This whole new area of sociology,

:36:46.:36:49.

really, and statistics, and the reason it is called syphology, it

:36:50.:36:58.

was a high table joke in Oxford, one of his colleagues wanted to

:36:59.:37:00.

call it election ology, and he said that was a good course title, and

:37:01.:37:12.

then one of his colleagues said, why don't we call it syphology. Equally

:37:13.:37:18.

important, David Butler was the election night pundit for the BBC

:37:19.:37:24.

from 1950, the first results programme, until 1979, he was the

:37:25.:37:29.

John Curtis of his day. He campaigned in the 50s to help the

:37:30.:37:34.

broadcasters because in the 1950s broadcasters were not allowed to

:37:35.:37:37.

cover election campaigns. It was a self-denying ordinance because there

:37:38.:37:42.

were fears that broadcasters would be bias and there were -- that was

:37:43.:37:49.

something which affected the BBC until 1955. David Butler said this

:37:50.:37:57.

was ridiculous. His second cousin Rab Butler was there, and they

:37:58.:38:01.

agreed it was ridiculous, and they relaxed the rules and three weeks

:38:02.:38:04.

later they had been Rochdale by-election, the first covered on

:38:05.:38:09.

television, and the 1959 campaign was covered properly by

:38:10.:38:15.

broadcasters. We have a lot to thank him for. What about the swingometers

:38:16.:38:20.

themselves? They have become more sophisticated. David Button is very

:38:21.:38:27.

modest about this, he said he didn't invent the swingometer, but yes, he

:38:28.:38:32.

did -- David Butler. He actually did the drawings which suggested the

:38:33.:38:37.

swingometer. He was not allowed to operate it at first. They made a

:38:38.:38:42.

little model on the desk in the mid-50s, and it was run from BBC

:38:43.:38:48.

Bristol, they experimented. Piloted in the regions? Yes, and then it

:38:49.:38:54.

became big in 1959. David certainly invented it. In 2010 and 2015, we

:38:55.:39:03.

have seen interest in a wide range of parties. We had a coalition

:39:04.:39:06.

government and there were expectations that could be repeated

:39:07.:39:10.

in 2015. In this election we are going back to more focus on the two

:39:11.:39:16.

main parties again? Because the Lib Dems and Ukip are not doing as well

:39:17.:39:22.

as they would hope. In the 1950s it was Labour versus the Conservatives,

:39:23.:39:27.

and there was really nobody else. Increasingly it has got more and

:39:28.:39:31.

more complex, and a third of the population don't vote for either of

:39:32.:39:36.

them. We are returning to the 2-party system. It makes the idea of

:39:37.:39:43.

a swing a bit more pertinent. Traditional conservative Labour

:39:44.:39:48.

swing as opposed to swings between them and everybody else. We have

:39:49.:39:55.

given parties against each other, rather than just the Conservatives

:39:56.:39:58.

and Labour, so does that make it more interesting? Well, we are only

:39:59.:40:05.

in the middle of a snapshot right now and we don't know which way it

:40:06.:40:09.

is going to go in terms of whether the Labour Party is either going to

:40:10.:40:13.

survive in the next 10-15 years, if it goes really badly. We could see

:40:14.:40:18.

any party. I would not want to say we're returning to the days of

:40:19.:40:24.

2-party swing. At least not to the days of it being the Conservatives

:40:25.:40:29.

and Labour. You are not suffering from election fatigue, but are

:40:30.:40:34.

people getting tired of elections, even with great swingometers? No,

:40:35.:40:40.

and I think the question of swings and the swingometer is as pertinent

:40:41.:40:45.

in this election as any as I have covered. You look at the changing

:40:46.:40:51.

percentages between the different parties. Especially Labour and the

:40:52.:40:55.

Conservatives, and you try to map family seats will be won if there is

:40:56.:40:59.

a change of a certain amount -- how many seats. This could turn into a

:41:00.:41:07.

general election result of 24 seats, and if you look at the polls and put

:41:08.:41:11.

that on to the general election, you have a result of a 60 seat majority

:41:12.:41:14.

that the Conservatives, but we think there could be more. There is the

:41:15.:41:18.

additional factor, it looks as if there are big regional differences.

:41:19.:41:24.

In the north of England, there are bigger swings which could deliver

:41:25.:41:27.

the Conservatives an even bigger overall majority. But it is

:41:28.:41:33.

difficult to predict, as we discovered in 2015 when the polls

:41:34.:41:36.

had not predicted a small Conservative majority. When it came

:41:37.:41:40.

to predicting swings, people were working a lot on the basis of their

:41:41.:41:43.

being a coalition government and they got it wrong. There is a sense

:41:44.:41:48.

that there isn't fatigue, almost the opposite. The publication of the

:41:49.:41:55.

manifestos which is so different... That is sparking interest? And

:41:56.:42:01.

fighting amongst people I meeting, there are real arguments and debates

:42:02.:42:04.

because there is such a difference in the manifestos -- and fighting

:42:05.:42:11.

amongst -- I'm finding amongst. Jeremy Corbyn is not just a nice

:42:12.:42:16.

guy, he has this manifesto. That is a kind of leadership. People are

:42:17.:42:20.

getting a bit worried about that and the whole interest in the

:42:21.:42:26.

Progressive Alliance, stop the Tories, there is interest in the

:42:27.:42:31.

Green Party full stop it has not been taken on by the Liberal

:42:32.:42:37.

Democrats and the Labour Party. No, but this is a slight problem for the

:42:38.:42:41.

swingometer, which is a bit one-dimensional. It was always

:42:42.:42:44.

comparing the two, but you need more of a roundabout. There is a

:42:45.:42:50.

difference between the swingometer and the concept of swing. People

:42:51.:42:56.

have devised swingometers which involve other parties, but the

:42:57.:43:00.

concept of swing will still be useful. What is fascinating, we live

:43:01.:43:05.

in a world which is increasingly uniform, but swing has become less

:43:06.:43:10.

uniform. It was much more uniform in the 1950s and one of the beauties of

:43:11.:43:13.

modern elections, different areas of the country become, they are

:43:14.:43:18.

becoming more diverse, compared with what they were in the early days of

:43:19.:43:21.

David Butler's swing and swingometer. Michael, thanks for

:43:22.:43:30.

joining us. That is what makes it unpredictable, amongst people under

:43:31.:43:32.

40 there is a swing towards Jeremy Corbyn and there is a uncertainty

:43:33.:43:38.

about registration. There has certainly been published at about

:43:39.:43:39.

that. Thanks for coming in, Michael. Now, immigration remains

:43:40.:43:44.

the ultimate political hot topic, and the Conservatives are hoping

:43:45.:43:46.

to capitalise on it. They've revived the pledge

:43:47.:43:48.

they made before the last two general elections -

:43:49.:43:50.

reduce immigration down I'm so sorry, is it not a policy

:43:51.:43:52.

to get immigration down? And we've had it in

:43:53.:44:04.

previous manifestos... What's the difference

:44:05.:44:06.

between an ambition and a policy? You've had it in previous manifestos

:44:07.:44:09.

and palpably not delivered it. I assume by repeating it, there

:44:10.:44:12.

was some meaning to it this time? Well, it's our aim to continue

:44:13.:44:17.

to bear down on immigration. And of course for the first time

:44:18.:44:20.

this is going to become easier There will be no further entitlement

:44:21.:44:23.

to freedom of movement. Anyone in Bulgaria or Lithuania can

:44:24.:44:27.

up sticks and come here... We've been joined by Gurnek Bains,

:44:28.:44:33.

the chief executive of a new think-tank,

:44:34.:44:37.

Global Future, which is arguing for a net immigration target

:44:38.:44:39.

of at least 200,000. And Ukip's immigration spokesman,

:44:40.:44:42.

John Bickley, joins us You say that the Conservative

:44:43.:44:56.

Party's pledge to cut net migration to the tens of thousands is

:44:57.:45:00.

impossible to fulfil without devastating economic consequences,

:45:01.:45:08.

how so? I think there is a responsibility on governments when

:45:09.:45:11.

they make a pledge like that to say how it will be met and what the

:45:12.:45:14.

consequences will be. To put it in perspective, net migration is now

:45:15.:45:21.

273. Tens of thousands target has been around for seven years. It has

:45:22.:45:25.

been 20 years since we've been anywhere close to achieving the

:45:26.:45:30.

100,000 target. Our view is that we cannot move towards that target

:45:31.:45:35.

without serious economic consequences and social consequences

:45:36.:45:40.

for the country. John Bickley, what do you say to that? I think the Tory

:45:41.:45:45.

party are taking the British voters for falls, as has just been said. In

:45:46.:45:49.

fact, two prime ministers have been telling us for several years that

:45:50.:45:52.

they want to reduce it to the tens of thousands. But you want to take

:45:53.:46:00.

it even lower, dull I'm afraid if I could just finished, I looked at the

:46:01.:46:03.

Tory manifesto yesterday and first of all, I could not find anything on

:46:04.:46:06.

immigration. It is tucked away in the back of the manifesto, it does

:46:07.:46:11.

not have its own chapter heading. I eventually found it, three

:46:12.:46:15.

paragraphs. There is a reference to tens of thousands, and some waffle

:46:16.:46:19.

about some point in the future. This is just not acceptable for a

:46:20.:46:22.

government which will get re-elected on the 8th of June, to mislead the

:46:23.:46:26.

British people. Well, let's have a look at your policy. Paul Nuttall

:46:27.:46:30.

said yesterday that there would be a one in, one out system for

:46:31.:46:36.

immigration. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said that it

:46:37.:46:40.

would cost ?16 billion by 2020 - is that a price worth paying? I don't

:46:41.:46:45.

believe that at all. Let's go back to 1973, when we voted to stay in

:46:46.:46:53.

the European Union, then the ECA. For the next 22 years, up until when

:46:54.:47:00.

Labour came to power, there was balanced immigration, and during

:47:01.:47:03.

that time, the British economy became one of the most successful

:47:04.:47:07.

economies in the world. The Tories handed over a booming economy to the

:47:08.:47:10.

Labour government, they may even have handed over a surplus. We had

:47:11.:47:14.

balanced immigration for 22 years. Let's put that to Gurnek Bains, so

:47:15.:47:20.

come it is possible to achieve balanced immigration and not harm

:47:21.:47:23.

the economy? That is a historical view. Because actually, there are a

:47:24.:47:31.

whole set of trends in our report. The UK has a massively ageing

:47:32.:47:36.

population. In those years, we were not at full employment, and we are.

:47:37.:47:41.

When we hit full employment, in 2003, immigration was near 200,000.

:47:42.:47:45.

We also have a productivity crisis in this country. If you put all that

:47:46.:47:51.

together, you need net migration, we believe, in the region of 200,000,

:47:52.:47:55.

looking forward. Looking backwards, I can see why people have pulled

:47:56.:48:00.

this thing around, but actually, looking at the way the structure of

:48:01.:48:03.

British society is going, to give you one example, Japan, which is a

:48:04.:48:10.

society in full employment, ageing population, as net migration below

:48:11.:48:14.

100,000, has stagnated economically. Gets put that to John Bickley, how

:48:15.:48:20.

would our public services be run if there was an immediate, significant

:48:21.:48:24.

drop in net migration? You have spoken about a five-year period? We

:48:25.:48:31.

have spoken about an average over five years, and that would not be

:48:32.:48:34.

happening for at least two years, before we leave the EU. Your guest

:48:35.:48:38.

touched on something which I think is the elephant in the room. Our

:48:39.:48:41.

productivity in this country is appalling. Out of the G7, we are

:48:42.:48:47.

sixth, we are 35% behind America and Germany. And what do you think would

:48:48.:48:52.

improve it? That is a debate in itself. You said it is terrible, but

:48:53.:48:56.

what is your proposal? Just to assume that letting in hundreds of

:48:57.:49:00.

thousands more people willy-nilly is going to solve our productivity

:49:01.:49:03.

problem is not the answer to the question. What is? Well, we have to

:49:04.:49:08.

improve the education that our kids are getting, we need to improve

:49:09.:49:12.

training... And how long would that take, do you think? Of course it

:49:13.:49:17.

would take time, which is why over a period of years, we are not looking

:49:18.:49:21.

at a cliff edge with regard to immigration. We are talking two

:49:22.:49:25.

years before we leave the EU and then five years to get this under

:49:26.:49:29.

control. You have spoken about this before, who would sit on your

:49:30.:49:34.

migration control commission? People such as the CBI, the TUC, chambers

:49:35.:49:39.

of commerce, representatives from Ireland, Scotland, Wales and

:49:40.:49:43.

England. The CBI are very unhappy about any changes to bring down

:49:44.:49:46.

migration dramatically, because of the effect they say it would have on

:49:47.:49:51.

business. So if they, like the OBR, include that net migration should be

:49:52.:49:54.

200,000 a year, would you be prepared to go with that? Well, we

:49:55.:50:00.

would set up the migration control commission with a specific target

:50:01.:50:02.

EDDIE JORDAN: Be charged with meeting that target. The CBI, I'm

:50:03.:50:08.

afraid, supports the big corporate scum are the big multinationals who

:50:09.:50:10.

benefit from cheap Labour but do not pay corporation tax or their fair

:50:11.:50:15.

share. Rather than just having the benefits of cheap Labour, for which

:50:16.:50:19.

the taxpayer has to pick up the bill for the public services to service

:50:20.:50:25.

that cheap Labour, we need to have a look at the CBI's claims and

:50:26.:50:28.

actually start investing in technology. One thing stated in the

:50:29.:50:32.

Conservative manifesto is that too much immigration makes it difficult

:50:33.:50:36.

to build a cohesive society. Getting away from the figures, what do you

:50:37.:50:40.

say to people who feel their communities have been changed beyond

:50:41.:50:43.

recognition by immigration and want it reduced? Look, there has been a

:50:44.:50:48.

high level of net migration, for a variety of reasons, some of which

:50:49.:50:54.

are abating. We get that. At post-Brexit, I think as we have the

:50:55.:50:58.

right to control our borders, I think we need a rational, open

:50:59.:51:02.

debate about the levels of migration. But you don't want them

:51:03.:51:08.

to come down? I think there may be some natural decline, but we need an

:51:09.:51:12.

open conversation about what is the level of migration. In terms of

:51:13.:51:17.

social cohesion, the thing that drives, and will hit social cohesion

:51:18.:51:20.

most, is economic stagnation. And the social impact of a loss of

:51:21.:51:28.

migration is that people will see local construction firms in their

:51:29.:51:32.

areas fail, they might not be able to get carers for their parents,

:51:33.:51:35.

they will go to the NHS, who will not have the staff, they will see

:51:36.:51:39.

their high street, restaurants, hotels, suffering and potentially

:51:40.:51:44.

going bust. And the productivity miracle, Japan was supposed to have

:51:45.:51:49.

that, it has the lowest level of productivity... Why can't we train

:51:50.:51:53.

more people here to do those jobs? We are on full employment, you can't

:51:54.:51:57.

mushroom workers out of nowhere. Both of you, sorry, we have run out

:51:58.:51:59.

of time. As well as the magnificent seven

:52:00.:52:03.

of big-name political parties, there are also a whole range

:52:04.:52:05.

of smaller parties trying to rustle up some votes

:52:06.:52:07.

in the general election - today, we'll be hearing from a party

:52:08.:52:10.

looking to push back in 2008 and believes that the state

:52:11.:52:12.

should be as small as possible. for government is national defence

:52:13.:52:18.

and maintaining the rule of law. The party wants to see MPs replaced

:52:19.:52:22.

with Swiss-style direct They say the welfare

:52:23.:52:24.

state is unsustainable, and is essentially just borrowing

:52:25.:52:30.

money from unborn generations. committed to abolishing

:52:31.:52:33.

a range of taxes, including income, inheritance

:52:34.:52:43.

and capital gains taxes. In principle, they believe

:52:44.:52:46.

in the free movement of peoples, provided migrants receive

:52:47.:52:52.

no state support. We've been joined in the studio

:52:53.:52:54.

by the party's deputy Welcome to The Daily Politics. You

:52:55.:53:04.

say you believe in a small state and abolishing most taxes, but you

:53:05.:53:09.

propose attacks to pay off the national debt, so are you just

:53:10.:53:11.

replacing one set of taxes with one very large one? It is a really good

:53:12.:53:15.

point. It is something that was wrestled with. One of the key

:53:16.:53:20.

principles we have is that not only do we have freedom but we also have

:53:21.:53:24.

to take responsibility. I think it is an important question. We have a

:53:25.:53:28.

generation that has been clamouring for greater and greater public

:53:29.:53:32.

services, but in a way, has also been demanding that somebody else

:53:33.:53:37.

pay for those services. As a result, we have a large national debt in the

:53:38.:53:43.

region of ?1.5 trillion. The question is, how do we as a

:53:44.:53:47.

generation take responsibility for that? So you just think one big tax,

:53:48.:53:52.

I do not see the difference? , that might be an option for us. The

:53:53.:53:58.

difficulty is, how do we pay off this debt, do we pay it off now or

:53:59.:54:01.

do we leave it to our children? Let's have a look, you're suggesting

:54:02.:54:08.

a 10% corporation tax, considerably lower than it is at the moment.

:54:09.:54:12.

Howard that help pay off the deficit and the debt? It is a good question.

:54:13.:54:18.

It boils down to a simple ethical principle. The ethical principle is

:54:19.:54:23.

that each individual works hard and earns money. We all have a right to

:54:24.:54:28.

own our life and do what we want with our time, provided we cause no

:54:29.:54:33.

harm to other people. From that ethical principle, we always argue

:54:34.:54:39.

that we should reduce the level of taxation as much as is possible. But

:54:40.:54:42.

paying off the debt at the same time. Is it really credible, your

:54:43.:54:51.

modern? We believe that each individual has to take some

:54:52.:54:54.

responsibility for themselves. At the end of the day, there is an

:54:55.:54:58.

element of choice, whether each individual works or not. Do we as a

:54:59.:55:03.

generation take responsibility for the deficit and pay it off as

:55:04.:55:10.

quickly as we can all...? This is an interesting question, the

:55:11.:55:12.

Conservatives in their manifesto have said they will eliminate the

:55:13.:55:17.

deficit, they originally said by 2015, now it is 2025 - does Will

:55:18.:55:24.

Taylor have a point but are we there is an interesting overlap between

:55:25.:55:29.

the Libertarian Party and bits of the Conservative Party. There are

:55:30.:55:32.

people who want to minimise things as much as possible, in the same

:55:33.:55:38.

way. But what is interesting is that Theresa May, yesterday, set her

:55:39.:55:45.

stance against the Libertarian Party's philosophy and that wing of

:55:46.:55:49.

her own party, by saying, nobody is in a vacuum, everybody owes whatever

:55:50.:55:54.

success they have to the society that they come from. We have debts

:55:55.:55:58.

and obligations to the community and the state and the society which

:55:59.:56:03.

helps us come successful individuals, we have to pay for

:56:04.:56:08.

those obligations and debts. So, Theresa May yesterday explicitly

:56:09.:56:11.

rejected any kind of libertarian philosophy in the way that she wants

:56:12.:56:18.

to run the Conservative Party. It is interesting whether or not that

:56:19.:56:20.

might push some people out of the Conservative Party. If they are

:56:21.:56:25.

upset about it, those people, they're keeping quiet at the moment.

:56:26.:56:29.

You oppose the idea of a welfare state - why? Again, if boils down to

:56:30.:56:36.

the principle, that we work hard, we are our own money, and therefore we

:56:37.:56:40.

believe we should have more freedom and choice in how that money is

:56:41.:56:45.

spent. What about health care and schools, if you went private? Are

:56:46.:56:49.

not suggesting private schooling. What about inequality, it is a

:56:50.:56:57.

matter of wealth, including private wealth and corporate wealth, don't

:56:58.:57:00.

you need the state to provide some kind of challenge to sources of

:57:01.:57:05.

power which are to do with wealth? I agree that there are lots of

:57:06.:57:11.

problems in society. The Libertarian Party, like all parties, wants to

:57:12.:57:14.

solve those problems, we are effectively on the same side. What

:57:15.:57:19.

we argue about is how. We ask a simple question - is it possible to

:57:20.:57:22.

solve those problems by giving people more freedom and more choice?

:57:23.:57:27.

Now, sometimes, it isn't. In that case there may be a role for

:57:28.:57:30.

government. But if it is possible, is it not right to at least try?

:57:31.:57:36.

Will Taylor, on that question being posed, we will let you go, thank

:57:37.:57:37.

you. At the end of a campaign week

:57:38.:57:41.

which saw manifesto launches from most of the main parties,

:57:42.:57:44.

we thought it would be a good moment to see how the bookies are viewing

:57:45.:57:47.

the upcoming election. Katie Baylis from Betfair joins us

:57:48.:57:49.

live outside Parliament. Take us through the odds. It is

:57:50.:57:56.

really interesting, and as you would expect, on our two main markets for

:57:57.:58:04.

the 8th of June to overall majority, the Tories, massive odds-on

:58:05.:58:11.

favourites. A Labour overall majority, that would be a huge

:58:12.:58:25.

upset, but is currently at 54-1. Interestingly, though, in the last

:58:26.:58:29.

24 hours, since the release of the Tory manifesto, the Labour odds have

:58:30.:58:35.

shortened. So perhaps a little bit of backing for Labour off the back

:58:36.:58:41.

of that. Thank you very much for that, Katie Baylis.

:58:42.:58:46.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:58:47.:58:49.

The question was, how has Donald Trump described

:58:50.:58:51.

the investigation into alleged collusion between his presidential

:58:52.:58:53.

So, Sam and Hilary, what's the correct answer?

:58:54.:59:01.

B) unbelievable? No. A) a witch hunt. It was indeed!

:59:02.:59:11.

Thanks to Sam, Hilary and all my guests.

:59:12.:59:16.

Adam Fleming will be presenting another edition

:59:17.:59:18.

of his Election Broom Cupboard show on the BBC Politics Facebook

:59:19.:59:20.

Andrew will be on BBC One on Sunday at 11am, with The Sunday Politics.

:59:21.:59:25.

And I'll be here at noon on Monday, with more comprehensive coverage

:59:26.:59:29.

Jo Coburn is joined by Sam Coates of the Times and Red Pepper's Hilary Wainwright to discuss reaction to the Conservative manifesto, the Libertarian Party and the return of the swingometer.


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