07/06/2017 Daily Politics


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Welcome to the Daily Politics and the last


day of campaigning ahead of tomorrow's general election.


The leaders have been clocking up the air miles.


Theresa May was pressing the flesh at a meat market at half five this


She's been talking about Brexit and new measures


Jeremy Corbyn began the day at a rally in Glasgow,


telling his supporters there are just 24 hours


But he's had to reshuffle his top team after Diane Abbott stands aside


The other party leaders are all out making their eleventh-hour


pitches to the voters, and we'll be looking back at how


this dramatic election campaign has unfolded.


And I'll have our usual step-by-step guide to election night to help


All that in the next hour - and with us for the duration, two men


hoping to be re-elected as MPs tomorrow - Ed Vaizey


for the Conservatives and David Lammy for Labour.


And what better way to round off their campaigns than by appearing


on the last Daily Politics election special?


I'm sorry, that should have read finish off their campaigns. We shall


see. Anyway, welcome to both of you. So today we'll be reflecting


on this final frenetic day of the election and looking back


at the whole of the campaign. But let's begin with a look


at the front pages. Most are still understandably


focused on the aftermath of the terror attack in London


at the weekend. But some have a more political angle


and the common theme is security. The Sun, picking up a story


from blogger Guido Fawkes, says Jeremy Corbyn gave a speech


at a demonstration attended by members of the outlawed


group Al-Muhajaroon, some said to be dressed


as suicide bombers Labour says it was a public event


and Mr Corbyn was not The Guardian's headline is 'May


threatens to dismantle human rights laws in wake of terror attacks',


following on from a speech by the Prime Minister last night


when she set out a series The Financial Times


leads on that story too. It says Theresa May is targeting


Labour heartlands and is 'ramping up the anti-terror rhetoric'


in response to criticism of her And the Daily Mail's headline


is "apologists for terror" with pictures of Jeremy Corbyn,


John McDonnell and Diane Abbott. The paper is no fan of Labour's top


team and says they have spent their whole career 'cosying up


to those who hate our country'. Well, let's take a look


at that announcement She's talking about tightening


restrictions on suspects, making it easier to expel foreign


offenders and, if necessary, opting out of some human


rights laws, which she says are used to block


efforts to deport terrorists. and then we'll hear from the Labour


leader Jeremy Corbyn responding. I mean longer prison


sentences for those convicted I mean making it easier


for the authorities to deport foreign terrorist suspects back


to their own country. And I mean doing more to restrict


the freedom and movements of terrorist subjects when we have


enough evidence to know they are a threat, but not enough


evidence to prosecute them in court. And if our human rights laws


stop us from doing it, we'll change the laws


so we can do it. We won't defeat terrorism


by ripping up our basic We defeat terrorism by our


communities, by our vigilance, and by police action to isolate


and detain those that Obviously, if somebody is a foreign


national resident in Britain who is committing crimes,


then clearly, the law The issue is police numbers


and police security. That was the Prime Minister and


Jeremy Corbyn. Ed Vaizey, three weeks ago when Theresa May launch


the Tory manifesto, she guaranteed the Human Rights Act would continue


to apply and we would remain subject to the European Court of Human


Rights. Is that still valid? As far as I am aware, it is still valid and


there are plenty in the Conservative Party you support the articles on


human rights. What she said yesterday was deaf. If our human


rights laws get in the way of doing it, we will change the laws. But


that is not what she said in a manner that still? What you said in


the manifesto was that we would remain a signatory to the European


convention and we would have a Human Rights Act. -- in her manifesto. In


France, as you know, you can opt out of bits of the European convention.


So is that a possibility? I am not a Home Office minister and I am not


privy to the Prime Minister's thinking but logically it would be a


possibility for the UK if it felt it necessary as other countries has


done, as Ireland did during the troubles, to derivate from it if


they feel it necessary. There will be a range of things they could


potentially do. She says that if our human rights laws get in the way, we


will change the law. How do you change the human rights of ECA char?


As I say, you can have a derivation. -- ECHR. You would have a Human


Rights Act that you can potentially amend. She said in the manifesto, we


will not repeal or replace. I think the interesting thing, we can talk


about process or the substance of what people are having to face up


to. But we're talking about someone who was Home Secretary for six


years. Two things come from these terrible events in Manchester and


London and one is this grey area where you know people are extremists


but they have not committed a crime. It is quite clear that the guy who


was on the Channel 4 documentary was on the extremes but the authorities


felt they couldn't do anything because he had not committed a


crime. The Prime Minister made it explicit that that is clearly an


area of concern. How do you deal with this when people go right up to


the edge of breaking the law? The authorities know that common sense


dictates that they are risk. So why did you not seek control orders? The


control orders were consistently struck down. So you change the laws


to make sure that the course can do that. But these were much softer. We


wanted to make sure they were not consistently struck down. There is


no point having a tough law if it gets knocked back every time. It is


more important to have a law that the courts accept. Was it a mistake


to scrap control orders? No. I think you can scrap the concept of control


orders and still put controls on people who you think are a danger to


the public and you can use it through this new process. It is not


necessary because the courts can't overturning them. How many of these


not so tough control orders have you had? This is not the traditional


survivor, where you test my knowledge. -- traditional ECHR. It


is probably like 100. It is not like 100. Having opposed Mr Blair when he


wanted a longer time to be able to detain suspects, Theresa May now


looks like she wants more detention as well. Well, if you remember Mr


Blair... 28 days. He put out a proposal for 48 days. He, my


standing coalition, we were reduced to 14 days. So you played coalition


politics rather than the security of the country. That was give-and-take


on both sides about what people thought were appropriate. Let me


give you one final question. Why would longer prison sentences, as


Mrs May has called for, why would that deter those, as in Westminster,


Manchester and London Bridge, who are on a suicide mission? I think


what people are talking about is a range of measures to combat that


terrorist threat. But longer prison sentences would make no difference


to those people who carried out suicide attacks? It may be that if


you are able to look at how you catch people before they commit


these crimes, and extend the prosecution, putting them away from


longer, it will keep the public sector. I am sure there are hundreds


of people who are due to be released and the public would think,


actually, that person could still potentially pose a threat and we


wish they had been given a longer prison sentence. I think it is


possible, perfectly possible to look at a range of different measures to


combat terrorism. You want to respond to that? Just to say that


look, I was in Belmarsh prison a few weeks ago with some men there that


have been put there because of terrorism. And these are seriously


bad people. They need to be kept under house arrest. They need to be


permanently tanked. We need to control who they can speak to and


liaise with. Which was the original control orders. And that was watered


down. Would you like to bring this back? I am for it. These are bad


people and the need to be controlled. Do you accept that


control orders were consistently overturned by the court, it was a


unilateral decision. In coalition with the Liberal Democrats you


watered down. That is what happened. Let me ask you this, David Lammy.


Because it interesting, you say you would like to go back to that


control order. But as your leader, Mr Corbyn, has he ever voted for any


toughening of the anti-terrorist laws? He hasn't, never. Does that


make you uneasy? Well, he wasn't leading the Labour Party at the


time. He was speaking from the backbenches. And you will find...


Does that matter? Is the man who could be our next Prime Minister and


indeed boasted in 2011, quote, I have been involved in opposing


anti-terrorist legislation ever since I first went into Parliament


in 1983. Theresa May voted against same-sex legislation. She has


voted... Lets stick to the anti-terror legislation. The point


is, Andrew, of course you can go back in a parliamentary career of 30


years. But he never voted once. You could find things in a backbencher's


record that do not stand up. I have not denied that he never voted. I am


answering your question. Why should we trust the security of this


country to someone who is opposed and has opposed every effort to


toughen up anti-terrorism legislation? That is a decision for


the electorates tomorrow. But what is your answer to my question? We


should not be judging him on the basis of that, we should be basing


it on what he is saying today. What he's saying today is that it is the


Conservatives that watered down control orders and cut the police


budgets under Theresa May, that is the government that we have had and


is what they stand for. Andrew izzard, at a time when we're


probably more dependent on the security services than ever before,


who is it that a couple of years ago wanted to abolish MI5? I am not


aware of that one. John McDonnell, the number two. I am so unaware of


that. He signed a document and indeed there is a picture of him


holding this document. He wanted to abolish MI5. So you have a leader


who has never supported any toughening of the anti-terrorism


situation and a number two, a Shadow Chancellor who wanted to abolish


MI5. Well, you're putting that to me and I have never heard of before. I


assume if they wanted to do it he wanted to replace it with something


else. Well, he also wanted to abolish armed police. All of these


individuals were on the backbenches for years. And they are now subject


to... It is your responsibility, can I pick up on collective


responsibility. Briefly. Are you going to sit here and say to Andrew


that the Tories are weak and you want tough control orders? Your


Brexit secretary, Kier Starmer, has been touring the studios this


morning saying that Theresa May is wrong to question the Human Rights


Act yet you are here to say you will bring in tough anti-terrorism is.


Nobody believes a word of it because Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell had


been sympathetic to terrorism for the last 30 years. But she turned on


national insurance, and has you turned on the dementia tax and now


she is U-turning on this. How can you trust someone who you turns like


that? But we're talking about security, the security of the


nation, and we're talking about lives. We're talking about an


election campaign which has seen two terrorist attacks during the


campaign itself. Is it a disadvantage that your leader seems


to be addressing lots of meetings over the years of people who are


extremists, Islamist, anti-Semites, homophobes, misogynists. He has


addressed these various groups. This latest one, there is a group in the


audience shouting, gas the dues, gas Tel Aviv, and he is addressing that


group. Does that not concern you? I find that deeply offensive. Any


suggestion of gassing Tel Aviv or anything that is about attacking our


friends in Israel, I think is full. But what I would say is that on a


programme like this, at the end of the election, no offence, you have


spent the last few minutes on the past. How else to judge you? How


else can I judge you? I have to judge you by your record. I expect


that the manifesto and going forward, the Conservative record is


a regular government of cutting police, watering down control


orders, and ending the preventer gender. That is their record and you


are talking about backbenchers in the past.


The viewers and voters will determine.


Let's find out how the parties are spending the final


day of this campaign. Adam Fleming has all the details.


I'm spending the last few hours of the Daily Politics at Westminster on


College Green, which has been turned into a tented media for the media to


cover the elections. I got in trouble with CNN for photo bombing


them. Hello, world. That is the BBC sport up there. I hope you have a


head for heights. It is windy as well. I am sure it will be an


enjoyable watch. As is customary, the last 24 hour sees party leaders


running around like headless chickens, but it is a carefully


choreographed dash for votes. Here is what has happened this morning.


Ridiculously early o'clock and the PM was taking the phrase meet and


greet literally by visiting Smithfield market. Obviously not


courting of Eden vote, then. Listen carefully and you can hear a handful


of butchers booing. BOOING Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was in


Solihull to continue his cooking Tour of Britain. He whipped up


sausages with sauerkraut as a warning against what he calls a hard


Tory breakfast... I mean, Brexit. In Glasgow, the Labour leader held


the first of six rallies today. Behind the scenes, shadow police Mr


Lyn Brown took over from the Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott, who is


still ill. Actually, Jeremy has been sounding a bit cranky lately. They


claimed my voice was bad. Outrageous. My voice is... Fine! Mrs


May was at a bowling club in Southampton fresh from revelations


that he ran through wheat fields as a child. We learned another personal


gem about the PM. Her teen order. Cup of tea, no milk. Thanks for


coming out. Something stronger for Tim Farron, by this point, he was in


a pub in St Albans to talk about business rates.


Poor muscle to Ukip's message to Great Yarmouth. They love a market,


these politicians. Mr Corbyn and his press entourage have just arrived


for a speech in a field in Runcorn. As we speak, Caroline Lucas is in


the green spot of Brighton. Theresa May has touched down in Norfolk in


the last dash for votes. The dash will continue over lunch


time this afternoon and into deceiving. Theresa May is going


North Norfolk to the Midlands. The Lib Dems are going West to Oxford


and Bristol. That is where Jonathan Bartley will be. At midnight, the


only thing that will be blowing through here is the Tumbleweed,


because we will all be legally silent on polling day until 10pm


when we get the exit poll. Thanks, Adam. Legally silent for 24 hours or


less, enjoy it. Now, compared to the 2015


election, when the deficit There's been relatively little


discussion of the public finances That's not because the deficit has


disappeared, it's still there, although a third of the size


of what it was in 2010. So we thought we'd remind


you of where the two main parties stand when it comes to the economy,


and how they plan to balance The Conservatives have


said their plan is to eliminate the budget deficit by 2025,


10 years on from their They've ruled out a rise in VAT,


but have made no specific pledges on national insurance contributions


or the rate of income tax. They will, however, go ahead


with their planned tax cuts by increasing the personal tax


allowance and the higher While also fulfilling a previous


pledge to cut corporation tax on businesses to 17% by 2020,


making it the lowest rate Labour's plan is to spend ?25


billion a year on infrastructure, a policy that could boost growth


in the short term but would add They've gone further


than the Conservatives in promising no increases in national insurance


as well as no rise in VAT. But they do plan to reintroduce


the 50p tax rate and raise income As well as increasing


the corporation tax rate Both parties have also said they'll


be looking at changes to other major The Conservatives are promising


a review of business rates, to take better account


of online businesses. Although the party's previous


attempts to reform business rates While Labour is courting


controversy of its own, it's promising a review of council


tax and business rates, and suggests instead


a tax on the value of the land. Let's pick up on the last idea.


David Lammy, a land value tax to replace council tax and business


rates, do you approve of that? Actually, in the book I wrote after


the 2010 election, I refloated the idea of a land value tax the two


reasons. One, because at the moment we have council tax, which is


effectively our tax on property. It has not been revalued since 1991. I


think that is grossly unfair. Two, because here, if you are serious


about the North and south divide, here in the south of England,


effectively, there are people making more on their home in a year than


people get paid. If you are able to play the lottery of land, and that


is the case for those of us of a certain age who bought property


20-30 years ago, or those who inherit from their parents, you can


make huge gains. For that reason, it is right to look at land. You can


redistribute money in a different way. We need a better formula for


taxing those individuals. Right, but it could mean that ordinary people


in not very expensive homes, particularly in London and the


south-east, could pay a lot more. We have had no details about this land


value tax and how it will be calibrated. But assuming it will be


small, 2% or 3%, you can end up paying two or three times as much


per year as you currently do on council tax. It about fairness. In a


sense, are we going to stick with the council tax where the bands have


not been relived at the 26 years, or should we consult looking at


something different? I think the manifesto Sibley says let's have a


look. I understand that. But any calculation I have seen involving


people whose council tax at the moment may be ?1000 a year, ?1200,


under this formula, even on modest land value taxation assumptions, it


goes up to two, three, 4000 a year for ordinary families. My view is


the current system is unfair on young people. It's an unfair on


people beyond London and the south-east. Would it be fair to


increase a very generous... To double or triple their local taxes,


would that be fair? I don't recognise that. You haven't done the


work. Come on, the burden of this will fall on some very rich people


in London. The burden will fall on everybody. That's how it works.


Unless you read. I was in Yorkshire yesterday, how did they end up


paying more out of this scheme? -- unless you rent. Particularly in the


London and south-east area, they would pay more, including your


constituents. Not my constituency! Of course they would. Most of my


constituents are in private rented or council homes. Not my


constituents at all. If you want to redistribute wealth to the north and


rebalance the economy, London... All right. We need to look at this, of


course we do! Where's the Chancellor? He's a lot more visible


than John McDonnell, I can tell you that! I think I read on a website


today that he has got the third most mentions in the media after Amber


Rudd and Boris Johnson. That is because people like me asking where


he is. Busy missing the election? I follow him on Twitter. You should


follow him on Twitter. He has been in a lot of Labour seats. Why is he


excluded from the National campaign? He has been prominent. He likes to


pound the pavements. He's the Chancellor. Why have you not fought


this campaign in any way on your economic record? That is a fair


point. I wish we had talked about our economic record. We have created


3 million jobs. We have reduced tax the 31 million people. Are you


ashamed of it? We have cut the deficit by two thirds. We have a


fantastic record. Why no mention of it? I don't remember Mrs made making


a speech about it? The election takes on a life of its own. Also,


not of the theme when we started the election was about Brexit and other


issues have taken over. Not the economy. We haven't talked enough


about the land value tax. We have done that. Can you remember a


previous campaign in which the Conservatives, all parties, made so


little about the economy? Well, I have been campaigning since probably


the 1987 election. I don't remember all campaigns. Somebody said to me


last night, in 1992, just as you would engulf the Tory party, Europe


did not feature in the election campaign. The economy has always


been central. People are obsessed about it, but you have given me the


opportunity to talk about our economic record, for which I am


grateful. On the labour policy, this extra 50 billion a year of current


spending, I put aside what you would borrow to invest as well, but on


current spending, 50 billion, and it will come, you say you will raise it


from companies and the rich, or at least the much better off. The ISS


is clear, it says "You cannot raise that amount of money for only


countries and the rich." It is not quite 50 billion, that is the first


thing. Let's get the figure right. There are some on Costa promises as


well. 50 billion is a nice, round figure. You cannot raise that from


countries and the bridge alone. "It Doesn't add up stock" that is what


the ISS says. We have been very clear that we want to see a


corporation tax rise to 26% and not 19%. That is corporations. You won't


get that amount of money. We think there should be writers for those on


80,000 a year. We should return to a 50p income tax rate for very high


earners. We think... You can't raise that amount of money. What... What


if you don't? What if... You borrow more that is a decision for a


Chancellor, as you know that may be one of the reasons you haven't


talked too much about the economy is what has happened to public sector


pay. It is at its lowest in relation to


private sector pay since the government started collecting data.


It looks pretty bad stop it looks like public sector workers


are still feeling the pinch and bearing the brunt. Not only have we


created 3 million jobs, we have taken a lot of people completely out


of tax, raising the tax threshold for people on low incomes and


introduced the national minimum wage. And squeezed public sector


pay. There have been a lot of initiatives to help people on lower


pay. I think our economic record stands for itself. One reason we


haven't talked about it, we did take a leaf out of David Lammy's book and


we look into the future, like Brexit, the choice between Theresa


May and Jeremy Corbin. We need to move on.


Today we will take stock of the campaigns one and of April. Let's


begin with the highlights and not so highlights.


I have just chaired a meeting of the Cabinet where we agreed


that the government should call a general election.


I'll be talking about... Strong and stable leadership?


There is a reason to talking about strong and stable leadership.


There is a risk that people will kind of say,


"Well, he's just an Islingtonian herbivore,


The manifesto to see us through Brexit and beyond.


Four days ago, your manifesto rejected a cap on social care costs.


Nothing has changed from the prinicples on social care


policy that we set out in our manifesto.


Let's be clear, we have not changed the principles that we set


He has this money tree wish list in his manifesto.


There isn't a magic money tree that we can shake that suddenly


provides for everything that people want.


When it comes to taking on extremism and terrorism,


We have protected counterterrorism policing budgets.


The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May.


During this Tory campaign have been a number of U-turns. The act of


holding a election was a U-turn, because we were told were not going


have one. Now it is the wider Conservative brand, and we have seen


a U-turn on some terrorism issues as well. Where is strong and stable?


I'm not sure I would characterise that as a U-turn. I don't know why


you were saying there should be a U-turn on terrorism legislation. We


have talked about that at length. Because you were talking about


detention, and you are talking... The prime ministers perfectly


entitled to talk about what we need to do to make our country safer.


That is what the country would expect. In terms of social care, we


made it very clear that we would have a cap in the sense that you


would be able to keep ?100,000 of savings. It was interesting to hear


David Lammy, who presumably has been running around for the last few


weeks saying that it is a disgrace that your house is being taken into


account. Well, your house is not taken into account when you are


alive, and he is interested in a land tax. Actually, I have been


saying that this is a woman who will negotiate for Europe and she has now


U-turn to three times in a week. How will she stand up to 2017? Your


proposals, the dimension tax, she U-turns on that. It is weakness. --


the dementia tax. No doubt many people will express on Twitter that


they dislike this kind of exchange between politicians. You might say


that they are U-turns but the fact is that Theresa May, in our


manifesto, put forward some challenging policies on issues like


social care and the Winter fuel payments. And she has been attacked


on those challenging policies, and she is facing up to them and putting


them to the country, whereas Labour are simply offering an endless list


of freebies, paid for on the never-never? If that is true, why


did you started this campaign 20 points ahead of the polls and are


now in some neck and neck. What has gone right? I'm going to answer it


in my inevitable question. The other thing that puts people off


politicians is when they say the only thing that matters is the


polls. And I have to say that in this case, I have never felt it


more. Because the polling is all over the place and it is not what is


happening on the ground. If the polling was so good, David Lammy


would not have spent yesterday in Yorkshire at three marginal Labour


seats. He would have spent them at three Tory marginal seats if they


thought Labour could win. We know what is happening on the ground.


There are going to be a lot of eggs on a lot of pollster's faces. Have


you ever seen a more poor Tory campaign? We can talk about the


wobble in 1986. This is not a wobble, this is a loss of a lead. I


think the great Sunday times, 30 years later we still talk about an


election wobble. Let's not beat about the bush, we start as the


favourites in this campaign, and I think the media have done a good job


of making it look like it is going to be a close election. The media


has done that? Given the issues that we have talked about in terms of


Jeremy Corbyn's fitness for office, his constant sucking up to terrorist


organisations... But the bigger government in this campaign, first


of all Mr Corbyn now looks like he is enjoying this election, and not


desperate for it to end, actually. He is enjoying it. Mrs May looks


like she can't wait to get over it and to bring it to an end. It has


been like a form of Chinese water torture for. I should not be


laughing... But it is intensely subjective, that analysis. I cannot


possibly answer it, given that is your view of what Theresa May has


been feeling. But her personal ratings were stratospheric and they


now have come way down. You get this line trotted out that she will not


answer questions. She has travelled five times more than Jeremy Corbyn,


and in five or six times more questions from the media. She has


been all over the country and the great thing about, she has been to


Labour marginals that we hope to take. Jeremy Corbyn has stuck to his


heartlands and he will not get out of the heartlands to face Tory


voters to win them over. But yes no, do you regret calling this election


close? I did not collared close. Elections are hard work. But I am


glad and I think we will come back with a stronger mandate. We shall


see. In about 36 hours. Anyway, that was the Conservatives.


It's the establishment versus the people.


It's our historic duty to make sure that people prevail.


How much would 10,000 police officers cost?


We believe it will be about ?300,000.


Mr Lavery, Mr Green, where is Mr Corbyn?


Our manifesto will be an offer, and we believe the policies


Why would the British people want as their leader a man


I didn't support the IRA, I don't support the IRA.


Do you regret your support for the IRA back in the 80s?


That particular quote you are referring to comes


from a now defunct left newspaper, and it had, as well...


Fair is when you bring people in when they've got jobs to come


to or it is necessary for them to come to workhere, or we need them


Whether the community gets together to support everybody,


or we just let the rich get richer, and the rest suffer.


I'll give you the figure in a moment.


You've announced a major policy and you don't know


David Lammy, Jeremy Corbyn couldn't recall the cost of his childcare


policy on the day he was launching it. John McDonnell, the Shadow


Chancellor, didn't know the size of the budget deficit and Diane Abbott


didn't know the cost of extra police officers promised in the manifesto,


nor the contents of the report on London policing, although she is a


London MP like you. Is your leadership up to running the


country? In every election cycle there are moments when quizzed about


particular figures in a certain way, you haven't quite got the numbers. I


remember in the last campaign that was a real problem for Natalie


Bennett, running for the greens, on housing. Things come up. I remember


being the first person on the news after John Prescott punched


somebody. Natalie Bennett was never going to be Prime Minister. All


these things come up. Mr Corbyn couldn't remember childcare on the


day he was launching the policy. Look, come on, I think in the end a


lot of people went into this election is almost assuming that


Jeremy Corbyn would be running scared. He has had a fantastic


campaign because he is a great campaigner, and as you have just


said, he is relishing it and the polls have closed as a consequence.


But what I asked was whether, not as campaigning abilities, which I agree


with you, have strengthened as the election has gone on, what I asked


was whether he, Mr McDonnell and Diane Abbott were competent enough


to run the country? Of course they are. We were worried at the point at


which there was a leak of our manifesto, and we got a bounce as a


consequence because it is a great manifesto. And actually, when you


knock on doors, people know the policies. They like what they are


hearing. About income tax. But if you are about to be the Shadow Home


Secretary, and do we know how Diane Abbott is? I sent her a message this


morning but I have not heard back. We know she is not well. But we do


not know how is. On the basis that she would be the next Home


Secretary, proposing 20,000 extra police officers, surely it is basic


competence to know what that would cost? Look, we're going back over


old ground. But it is the election, we are talking about the election


campaign! That is the point of the statement! It is about the election


campaign! He has given up now. It is not about Gladstone versus Disraeli,


it is about carbon versus Theresa May! -- Jeremy Corbyn versus Theresa


May. She got one interview wrong. The press has been mercilessly she


then got another one wrong on the Harris report. The press has been


mercilessly. But it is the whole thrust of our campaign, which is a


great manifesto on any analysis, traction in the country and the poll


closing. That is the story. Let me ask you this, it has been


interesting because you can often tell where parties hope to do well


by where the leaders and the other top people in that party go. And the


Tories have been going to lots of seats that years ago they would not


have had a hope of winning in the Midlands or the North. They must now


think they have, but your leader has essentially gone to areas which are


already solid Labour areas. What does that tell us? Look, I think


there is another story in this election. He is going over old


ground. There is another story, and that is returned to party politics.


It is the case that there are people who voted Ukip and those Ukip voters


are up for grabs, and are returning to mainstream parties. So of course


the Labour Party is in those areas persuading those voters to come back


to Labour. But you tended to go to seats where, not you personally but


your party leader, where Mr Corbyn, even if the Ukip vote collapsed to


the Tories, the Tories would still not win. Gateshead, last night. We


have been all over the country. Jeremy has been all over the


country, permanently on the road. And Diane Abbott, if you were


watching, we wish you a speedy recovery and we hope that illness


goes away very quickly. Making predictions the day before a general


election is a mugs game that year on the daily Latics, we are well-known


for her remarks. What are the bookies thinking? After


seven weeks of campaigning, the big question is are the Tories going to


fail at the final hurdles? They are 1-10 favourites for most tomorrow


but a month ago, it would have been a short as 1-50. The momentum has


certainly been with Jeremy Corbyn, and Labour is now in at 6-1.


Yesterday, customer placed a bet of ?1000 at 1000-1 on the greens


winning most seats. Good luck to that chap because I was not aware


that pigs could fly but the Tories are still the favourites here and


they have been the favourites for most votes. That is gone 21-6. But


the big move in the last few days comes with the thinking that there


will be a hung parliament. That is now just a 9-2 shot for an overall


majority. Labour, still a very big price to get that majority and get


over the line. But the Prime Minister, on the 1st of July, if


there is a hung parliament, punters think that Theresa May could be in


there but will she be in a better position than she was at the start


of April before she called this snap election? We still think she is the


favourite, but Jeremy Corbyn, over 70% of the bets have been for him. A


lot of punters are thinking that Theresa May might have to stand


down, having called this, and they might win not as convincingly as


they thought they would, so Amber Rudd has come into 200-1, after her


performance in the debates. Boris Johnson, someone had ?2000 on him in


a shop at Chelsea. I cannot see that happening. I think you need somebody


more strong and stable, you could say. Hammond is in there as 50-1 but


it is all going towards the Tories as we get into the final 24 hours.


That money is coming out but it is worth noting that there is a deja vu


scenario, similar to Brexit and the US election, in that there is more


money going on the favourites but more individual money going on the


outsiders. Time will tell tomorrow there is right. The bookies, the


statisticians, the pollsters, who knows? But we reckon the Tories.


You have odds of 2-9 for a Conservative majority, you need ?9


on two win ?2. Correct. What are the odds of a Tory majority north of 80,


which was the original hope of calling the election? The line is


set at Bet365. Our stats at the moment suggest Theresa May will get


a majority of 70. Those odds have come in right now. Our line at the


moment is Tory in their seat at 360. There will be people not too happy.


So that's the bookies' view, but what of the opinion polls?


Well, one firm, Survation, said on Monday it believed


the Conservative lead over Labour is down to just one point.


Other polling firms still think the Tories are as much


We're joined now by Damien Lyons-Lowe from Survation,


and Deborah Mattinson from Britain Thinks.


Welcome to you both. Your latest poll predict a 1-point lead for the


Conservatives. Some of us remember at the start of the campaign, some


polls were over 20 points. One point would mean a hung parliament, and


the Tories losing the majority, wouldn't it? It would mean using our


most recent Scotland figures from the Sunday Post, plugging those into


a Scotland predictor, and plugging, doing a simple national swing and a


future weeks, nothing too special. There would be a no overall majority


situation. So the answer is, yes. That's a yes. I was giving you my


working, so yes, hung parliament. We got there in the end. I was


beginning to lose the will to live. I'm a massive outlier here, I will


be the most wrong or the most right. Translations will follow. Yes.


Debra, to you, do you agree with this Survation poll, is it an


outlier or mainstream? It is an outlier. In a word, no. I don't


think so. Because? I think that what Survation has done is interesting.


Damien shows his working on his website, but I think there is a big


presumption about turnout, about young people, there is a danger that


his sample includes too many workers too highly engaged in politics. Also


the fieldwork, am I right, it was before Saturday night? Friday and


Saturday. You have got another one coming up? We do. When is that


coming up? What day is it today? Have I got to tell you which day it


is? It is a really reliable poll. It is complicated and it is Wednesday.


It is coming out at 11pm tonight. Good, I am glad we got there, too.


On the 1%, what turned out among younger people are you assuming? In


the post on Survation .com, you can give a 2015 assumption of turnout,


and the results don't change. You can use a 2015 assumption turnout,


it makes two points difference. By Micro age category, you can use, if


you like, and EU referendum turnout by it. Turnout went up by a lot. It


did. In 2015, the turnout was 46% among 18-24s. What are you assuming


it will be this time? I read the article and let people do whatever


they want to do. What it doesn't change our figures.


OK, I can talk about this the days, we all have the same numbers. All


the pollsters have the same numbers, except their turnout weights are


jamming up... OK. I am not sure I entirely followed it. But I do think


that is an issue. The voting age when thing is an issue with the


sample as well. It is a random sample, there is no issue with


engagement. We start with a random sample. You have 1.2% saying they


did not vote in last year's referendum, and a further 10.6


saying they can't remember. Only 12.5% saying they did not vote in


2015. That's... In your sample, suggesting to me... Let me ask you


this before we get lost in these statistics, let me ask you this, why


is there such a disconnect between what party activists on the left and


right are reporting from the Midlands and the north, and the


opinion polls? Including labour, they are more gloomy about Labour


than the polls, which are rather good for them. Two things, one is


small data, rather than big data. I would say this, wouldn't I, but I


think small data gives you a nuance that you don't get out the big data.


It is also how votes are distributed. Even if young people


vote, they vote in places that aren't helpful to Labour. Because


they are already going to win? Exactly. We are running out of time.


We want to have you both about when we know the result, but what you


think the result will be? A comfortable win for the


Conservatives. We will update the Poulton, but no overall majority.


Got you. Only one of you can be right. We will see.


It might have felt at times during this election that two-party


politics was making a comeback, but there are of course


plenty of other parties out their still vying for your vote,


and they could yet make an impact on the result.


Here's how they've fared during the campaign.


I voted Leave, and I'm proud to have voted Leave.


You're a very aggressive man as well.


Sometimes in politics, the tide comes in, the tide goes out.


Do you need more workers from outside Wales?


We're quite happy with the ones we've got.


The Prime Minister is not here tonight.


She can't be bothered, so why should you?


In fact, Bake Off is on BBC Two, next.


In terms of what we do to President Trump,


I'm trying to think of a polite answer.


Amber, for example, her party have said in three manifesto is now that


they're going to get immigration down to the tens of thousands.


This PM is not so much the iron Lady than she is the Queen of the U-turn.


People don't want political party leaders telling them what is and


isn't sin. The most embarrassing thing you've


done when you were drunk? This isn't terribly embarrassing,


I'm sorry, but I'm very bad at recognising people,


and that probably gets worse. I've tried to get you to


answer the question... That's exactly


what I'm doing, Andrew. A flavour of the campaign for some


of the smaller parties. We have seen a tweet from Diane Abbott touched by


the messages of support, still standing. Will rejoin the fray soon.


Vote Labour. Of course, other parties are available.


At the Daily Politics we're greeting it with a mix of


child-like excitement and world-weary exhaustion.


Well someone who never tires of the political


treadmill is our Ellie, here's her guide to how


By 9:55, you need to be ready to go depending on how you spend election.


That is when the BBC programmes stop. When the polls close at ten,


we get the exit poll. The first result, usually Sunderland, will


race in by 10:45, but it will be quiet until 1am, when we should have


around a dozen results. They should give us a good idea if the exit poll


is right or not. It's also when some of the results


will come in for the Labour held marginals. If the Conservatives win


these, it could be an indication that Theresa May is on course to


pull in a substantial majority. From 2am onwards, results from Scotland


come in. At any party staged a comeback against the assembly? We


will also start to see the first Conservative held marginals around


then, too. If the Conservatives can't hold onto these, kid it could


be a sign they are losing their majority.


Around 3am, we should be in full swing, results coming in at quite a


pace. By 5am, we should find out whether Paul Nuttall has been


successful in his bid to become a Ukip MP. And by 6am, whether the


Greens's Caroline Lucas has held the seat. It could be a long night.


Now of course, there's only one place to watch


election night unfold, and that's on BBC One


from the moment the polls close at 10 o'clock.


Emily Maitlis is at the BBC's Election Centre.


Another big build up to the exit poll tomorrow night. Absolutely


right. I will give you a guided tour of the studio to start. Down below,


David Dimbleby will be at the main table, and you can see some of our


commentators, let's call them, that's the big screen where you will


see the exit poll come up bang on 10pm. We have been playing around


with predictions and scenarios in the rehearsals. This is my touch


screen. That is the place to be on the night. I will bring you every


was old, trying to work out from the exit poll the kind of forecasts and


seats that might be changing hands. Down here, I don't know if you can


get down here, but it is a plain green area that magically becomes


Downing Street, the House of Commons, the walk to power and all


the other things that Jeremy Vine does with his virtual reality set.


At the moment, it is a gentle buzz of activity. It will be absolutely


alive and kicking come 6pm tomorrow evening when all the desks you can


see will be full. This is our bank of psephology 's calculating and


recalibrating the exit poll, updating the results we get in as we


get them. It looks very exciting. You look like you are on the bridge


of the starship enterprise. On the fridge? On the bridge. We have


locked that for the next 12 hours. Thanks very much. Good luck on the


night. Thanks, Andrew. You will be in your constituency, TV


appearances? I will do TV and rush back to my constituency. And you are


in Oxfordshire? Yeah. Thanks to all our guests, especially


Ed Vaizey and David Lammy. There is no Daily Politics tomorrow


as it's polling day. Broadcasters do nothing on election


day, it is convention and the rules as well. Polling day tomorrow.


But remember you'll be able to watch all the election results come


in from 10pm on BBC One and I'll be back on Friday on BBC One


from 7am and through the day, getting all the reaction


here in Westminster, so do join me then. Bye bye.


I've had enough... ..alternative facts.


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