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Welcome to the Daily Politics and the last
day of campaigning ahead of tomorrow's general election.
The leaders have been clocking up the air miles.
Theresa May was pressing the flesh at a meat market at half five this
She's been talking about Brexit and new measures
Jeremy Corbyn began the day at a rally in Glasgow,
telling his supporters there are just 24 hours
But he's had to reshuffle his top team after Diane Abbott stands aside
The other party leaders are all out making their eleventh-hour
pitches to the voters, and we'll be looking back at how
this dramatic election campaign has unfolded.
And I'll have our usual step-by-step guide to election night to help
All that in the next hour - and with us for the duration, two men
hoping to be re-elected as MPs tomorrow - Ed Vaizey
for the Conservatives and David Lammy for Labour.
And what better way to round off their campaigns than by appearing
on the last Daily Politics election special?
I'm sorry, that should have read finish off their campaigns. We shall
see. Anyway, welcome to both of you. So today we'll be reflecting
on this final frenetic day of the election and looking back
at the whole of the campaign. But let's begin with a look
at the front pages. Most are still understandably
focused on the aftermath of the terror attack in London
at the weekend. But some have a more political angle
and the common theme is security. The Sun, picking up a story
from blogger Guido Fawkes, says Jeremy Corbyn gave a speech
at a demonstration attended by members of the outlawed
group Al-Muhajaroon, some said to be dressed
as suicide bombers Labour says it was a public event
and Mr Corbyn was not The Guardian's headline is 'May
threatens to dismantle human rights laws in wake of terror attacks',
following on from a speech by the Prime Minister last night
when she set out a series The Financial Times
leads on that story too. It says Theresa May is targeting
Labour heartlands and is 'ramping up the anti-terror rhetoric'
in response to criticism of her And the Daily Mail's headline
is "apologists for terror" with pictures of Jeremy Corbyn,
John McDonnell and Diane Abbott. The paper is no fan of Labour's top
team and says they have spent their whole career 'cosying up
to those who hate our country'. Well, let's take a look
at that announcement She's talking about tightening
restrictions on suspects, making it easier to expel foreign
offenders and, if necessary, opting out of some human
rights laws, which she says are used to block
efforts to deport terrorists. and then we'll hear from the Labour
leader Jeremy Corbyn responding. I mean longer prison
sentences for those convicted I mean making it easier
for the authorities to deport foreign terrorist suspects back
to their own country. And I mean doing more to restrict
the freedom and movements of terrorist subjects when we have
enough evidence to know they are a threat, but not enough
evidence to prosecute them in court. And if our human rights laws
stop us from doing it, we'll change the laws
so we can do it. We won't defeat terrorism
by ripping up our basic We defeat terrorism by our
communities, by our vigilance, and by police action to isolate
and detain those that Obviously, if somebody is a foreign
national resident in Britain who is committing crimes,
then clearly, the law The issue is police numbers
and police security. That was the Prime Minister and
Jeremy Corbyn. Ed Vaizey, three weeks ago when Theresa May launch
the Tory manifesto, she guaranteed the Human Rights Act would continue
to apply and we would remain subject to the European Court of Human
Rights. Is that still valid? As far as I am aware, it is still valid and
there are plenty in the Conservative Party you support the articles on
human rights. What she said yesterday was deaf. If our human
rights laws get in the way of doing it, we will change the laws. But
that is not what she said in a manner that still? What you said in
the manifesto was that we would remain a signatory to the European
convention and we would have a Human Rights Act. -- in her manifesto. In
France, as you know, you can opt out of bits of the European convention.
So is that a possibility? I am not a Home Office minister and I am not
privy to the Prime Minister's thinking but logically it would be a
possibility for the UK if it felt it necessary as other countries has
done, as Ireland did during the troubles, to derivate from it if
they feel it necessary. There will be a range of things they could
potentially do. She says that if our human rights laws get in the way, we
will change the law. How do you change the human rights of ECA char?
As I say, you can have a derivation. -- ECHR. You would have a Human
Rights Act that you can potentially amend. She said in the manifesto, we
will not repeal or replace. I think the interesting thing, we can talk
about process or the substance of what people are having to face up
to. But we're talking about someone who was Home Secretary for six
years. Two things come from these terrible events in Manchester and
London and one is this grey area where you know people are extremists
but they have not committed a crime. It is quite clear that the guy who
was on the Channel 4 documentary was on the extremes but the authorities
felt they couldn't do anything because he had not committed a
crime. The Prime Minister made it explicit that that is clearly an
area of concern. How do you deal with this when people go right up to
the edge of breaking the law? The authorities know that common sense
dictates that they are risk. So why did you not seek control orders? The
control orders were consistently struck down. So you change the laws
to make sure that the course can do that. But these were much softer. We
wanted to make sure they were not consistently struck down. There is
no point having a tough law if it gets knocked back every time. It is
more important to have a law that the courts accept. Was it a mistake
to scrap control orders? No. I think you can scrap the concept of control
orders and still put controls on people who you think are a danger to
the public and you can use it through this new process. It is not
necessary because the courts can't overturning them. How many of these
not so tough control orders have you had? This is not the traditional
survivor, where you test my knowledge. -- traditional ECHR. It
is probably like 100. It is not like 100. Having opposed Mr Blair when he
wanted a longer time to be able to detain suspects, Theresa May now
looks like she wants more detention as well. Well, if you remember Mr
Blair... 28 days. He put out a proposal for 48 days. He, my
standing coalition, we were reduced to 14 days. So you played coalition
politics rather than the security of the country. That was give-and-take
on both sides about what people thought were appropriate. Let me
give you one final question. Why would longer prison sentences, as
Mrs May has called for, why would that deter those, as in Westminster,
Manchester and London Bridge, who are on a suicide mission? I think
what people are talking about is a range of measures to combat that
terrorist threat. But longer prison sentences would make no difference
to those people who carried out suicide attacks? It may be that if
you are able to look at how you catch people before they commit
these crimes, and extend the prosecution, putting them away from
longer, it will keep the public sector. I am sure there are hundreds
of people who are due to be released and the public would think,
actually, that person could still potentially pose a threat and we
wish they had been given a longer prison sentence. I think it is
possible, perfectly possible to look at a range of different measures to
combat terrorism. You want to respond to that? Just to say that
look, I was in Belmarsh prison a few weeks ago with some men there that
have been put there because of terrorism. And these are seriously
bad people. They need to be kept under house arrest. They need to be
permanently tanked. We need to control who they can speak to and
liaise with. Which was the original control orders. And that was watered
down. Would you like to bring this back? I am for it. These are bad
people and the need to be controlled. Do you accept that
control orders were consistently overturned by the court, it was a
unilateral decision. In coalition with the Liberal Democrats you
watered down. That is what happened. Let me ask you this, David Lammy.
Because it interesting, you say you would like to go back to that
control order. But as your leader, Mr Corbyn, has he ever voted for any
toughening of the anti-terrorist laws? He hasn't, never. Does that
make you uneasy? Well, he wasn't leading the Labour Party at the
time. He was speaking from the backbenches. And you will find...
Does that matter? Is the man who could be our next Prime Minister and
indeed boasted in 2011, quote, I have been involved in opposing
anti-terrorist legislation ever since I first went into Parliament
in 1983. Theresa May voted against same-sex legislation. She has
voted... Lets stick to the anti-terror legislation. The point
is, Andrew, of course you can go back in a parliamentary career of 30
years. But he never voted once. You could find things in a backbencher's
record that do not stand up. I have not denied that he never voted. I am
answering your question. Why should we trust the security of this
country to someone who is opposed and has opposed every effort to
toughen up anti-terrorism legislation? That is a decision for
the electorates tomorrow. But what is your answer to my question? We
should not be judging him on the basis of that, we should be basing
it on what he is saying today. What he's saying today is that it is the
Conservatives that watered down control orders and cut the police
budgets under Theresa May, that is the government that we have had and
is what they stand for. Andrew izzard, at a time when we're
probably more dependent on the security services than ever before,
who is it that a couple of years ago wanted to abolish MI5? I am not
aware of that one. John McDonnell, the number two. I am so unaware of
that. He signed a document and indeed there is a picture of him
holding this document. He wanted to abolish MI5. So you have a leader
who has never supported any toughening of the anti-terrorism
situation and a number two, a Shadow Chancellor who wanted to abolish
MI5. Well, you're putting that to me and I have never heard of before. I
assume if they wanted to do it he wanted to replace it with something
else. Well, he also wanted to abolish armed police. All of these
individuals were on the backbenches for years. And they are now subject
to... It is your responsibility, can I pick up on collective
responsibility. Briefly. Are you going to sit here and say to Andrew
that the Tories are weak and you want tough control orders? Your
Brexit secretary, Kier Starmer, has been touring the studios this
morning saying that Theresa May is wrong to question the Human Rights
Act yet you are here to say you will bring in tough anti-terrorism is.
Nobody believes a word of it because Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell had
been sympathetic to terrorism for the last 30 years. But she turned on
national insurance, and has you turned on the dementia tax and now
she is U-turning on this. How can you trust someone who you turns like
that? But we're talking about security, the security of the
nation, and we're talking about lives. We're talking about an
election campaign which has seen two terrorist attacks during the
campaign itself. Is it a disadvantage that your leader seems
to be addressing lots of meetings over the years of people who are
extremists, Islamist, anti-Semites, homophobes, misogynists. He has
addressed these various groups. This latest one, there is a group in the
audience shouting, gas the dues, gas Tel Aviv, and he is addressing that
group. Does that not concern you? I find that deeply offensive. Any
suggestion of gassing Tel Aviv or anything that is about attacking our
friends in Israel, I think is full. But what I would say is that on a
programme like this, at the end of the election, no offence, you have
spent the last few minutes on the past. How else to judge you? How
else can I judge you? I have to judge you by your record. I expect
that the manifesto and going forward, the Conservative record is
a regular government of cutting police, watering down control
orders, and ending the preventer gender. That is their record and you
are talking about backbenchers in the past.
The viewers and voters will determine.
Let's find out how the parties are spending the final
day of this campaign. Adam Fleming has all the details.
I'm spending the last few hours of the Daily Politics at Westminster on
College Green, which has been turned into a tented media for the media to
cover the elections. I got in trouble with CNN for photo bombing
them. Hello, world. That is the BBC sport up there. I hope you have a
head for heights. It is windy as well. I am sure it will be an
enjoyable watch. As is customary, the last 24 hour sees party leaders
running around like headless chickens, but it is a carefully
choreographed dash for votes. Here is what has happened this morning.
Ridiculously early o'clock and the PM was taking the phrase meet and
greet literally by visiting Smithfield market. Obviously not
courting of Eden vote, then. Listen carefully and you can hear a handful
of butchers booing. BOOING Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was in
Solihull to continue his cooking Tour of Britain. He whipped up
sausages with sauerkraut as a warning against what he calls a hard
Tory breakfast... I mean, Brexit. In Glasgow, the Labour leader held
the first of six rallies today. Behind the scenes, shadow police Mr
Lyn Brown took over from the Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott, who is
still ill. Actually, Jeremy has been sounding a bit cranky lately. They
claimed my voice was bad. Outrageous. My voice is... Fine! Mrs
May was at a bowling club in Southampton fresh from revelations
that he ran through wheat fields as a child. We learned another personal
gem about the PM. Her teen order. Cup of tea, no milk. Thanks for
coming out. Something stronger for Tim Farron, by this point, he was in
a pub in St Albans to talk about business rates.
Poor muscle to Ukip's message to Great Yarmouth. They love a market,
these politicians. Mr Corbyn and his press entourage have just arrived
for a speech in a field in Runcorn. As we speak, Caroline Lucas is in
the green spot of Brighton. Theresa May has touched down in Norfolk in
the last dash for votes. The dash will continue over lunch
time this afternoon and into deceiving. Theresa May is going
North Norfolk to the Midlands. The Lib Dems are going West to Oxford
and Bristol. That is where Jonathan Bartley will be. At midnight, the
only thing that will be blowing through here is the Tumbleweed,
because we will all be legally silent on polling day until 10pm
when we get the exit poll. Thanks, Adam. Legally silent for 24 hours or
less, enjoy it. Now, compared to the 2015
election, when the deficit There's been relatively little
discussion of the public finances That's not because the deficit has
disappeared, it's still there, although a third of the size
of what it was in 2010. So we thought we'd remind
you of where the two main parties stand when it comes to the economy,
and how they plan to balance The Conservatives have
said their plan is to eliminate the budget deficit by 2025,
10 years on from their They've ruled out a rise in VAT,
but have made no specific pledges on national insurance contributions
or the rate of income tax. They will, however, go ahead
with their planned tax cuts by increasing the personal tax
allowance and the higher While also fulfilling a previous
pledge to cut corporation tax on businesses to 17% by 2020,
making it the lowest rate Labour's plan is to spend ?25
billion a year on infrastructure, a policy that could boost growth
in the short term but would add They've gone further
than the Conservatives in promising no increases in national insurance
as well as no rise in VAT. But they do plan to reintroduce
the 50p tax rate and raise income As well as increasing
the corporation tax rate Both parties have also said they'll
be looking at changes to other major The Conservatives are promising
a review of business rates, to take better account
of online businesses. Although the party's previous
attempts to reform business rates While Labour is courting
controversy of its own, it's promising a review of council
tax and business rates, and suggests instead
a tax on the value of the land. Let's pick up on the last idea.
David Lammy, a land value tax to replace council tax and business
rates, do you approve of that? Actually, in the book I wrote after
the 2010 election, I refloated the idea of a land value tax the two
reasons. One, because at the moment we have council tax, which is
effectively our tax on property. It has not been revalued since 1991. I
think that is grossly unfair. Two, because here, if you are serious
about the North and south divide, here in the south of England,
effectively, there are people making more on their home in a year than
people get paid. If you are able to play the lottery of land, and that
is the case for those of us of a certain age who bought property
20-30 years ago, or those who inherit from their parents, you can
make huge gains. For that reason, it is right to look at land. You can
redistribute money in a different way. We need a better formula for
taxing those individuals. Right, but it could mean that ordinary people
in not very expensive homes, particularly in London and the
south-east, could pay a lot more. We have had no details about this land
value tax and how it will be calibrated. But assuming it will be
small, 2% or 3%, you can end up paying two or three times as much
per year as you currently do on council tax. It about fairness. In a
sense, are we going to stick with the council tax where the bands have
not been relived at the 26 years, or should we consult looking at
something different? I think the manifesto Sibley says let's have a
look. I understand that. But any calculation I have seen involving
people whose council tax at the moment may be ?1000 a year, ?1200,
under this formula, even on modest land value taxation assumptions, it
goes up to two, three, 4000 a year for ordinary families. My view is
the current system is unfair on young people. It's an unfair on
people beyond London and the south-east. Would it be fair to
increase a very generous... To double or triple their local taxes,
would that be fair? I don't recognise that. You haven't done the
work. Come on, the burden of this will fall on some very rich people
in London. The burden will fall on everybody. That's how it works.
Unless you read. I was in Yorkshire yesterday, how did they end up
paying more out of this scheme? -- unless you rent. Particularly in the
London and south-east area, they would pay more, including your
constituents. Not my constituency! Of course they would. Most of my
constituents are in private rented or council homes. Not my
constituents at all. If you want to redistribute wealth to the north and
rebalance the economy, London... All right. We need to look at this, of
course we do! Where's the Chancellor? He's a lot more visible
than John McDonnell, I can tell you that! I think I read on a website
today that he has got the third most mentions in the media after Amber
Rudd and Boris Johnson. That is because people like me asking where
he is. Busy missing the election? I follow him on Twitter. You should
follow him on Twitter. He has been in a lot of Labour seats. Why is he
excluded from the National campaign? He has been prominent. He likes to
pound the pavements. He's the Chancellor. Why have you not fought
this campaign in any way on your economic record? That is a fair
point. I wish we had talked about our economic record. We have created
3 million jobs. We have reduced tax the 31 million people. Are you
ashamed of it? We have cut the deficit by two thirds. We have a
fantastic record. Why no mention of it? I don't remember Mrs made making
a speech about it? The election takes on a life of its own. Also,
not of the theme when we started the election was about Brexit and other
issues have taken over. Not the economy. We haven't talked enough
about the land value tax. We have done that. Can you remember a
previous campaign in which the Conservatives, all parties, made so
little about the economy? Well, I have been campaigning since probably
the 1987 election. I don't remember all campaigns. Somebody said to me
last night, in 1992, just as you would engulf the Tory party, Europe
did not feature in the election campaign. The economy has always
been central. People are obsessed about it, but you have given me the
opportunity to talk about our economic record, for which I am
grateful. On the labour policy, this extra 50 billion a year of current
spending, I put aside what you would borrow to invest as well, but on
current spending, 50 billion, and it will come, you say you will raise it
from companies and the rich, or at least the much better off. The ISS
is clear, it says "You cannot raise that amount of money for only
countries and the rich." It is not quite 50 billion, that is the first
thing. Let's get the figure right. There are some on Costa promises as
well. 50 billion is a nice, round figure. You cannot raise that from
countries and the bridge alone. "It Doesn't add up stock" that is what
the ISS says. We have been very clear that we want to see a
corporation tax rise to 26% and not 19%. That is corporations. You won't
get that amount of money. We think there should be writers for those on
80,000 a year. We should return to a 50p income tax rate for very high
earners. We think... You can't raise that amount of money. What... What
if you don't? What if... You borrow more that is a decision for a
Chancellor, as you know that may be one of the reasons you haven't
talked too much about the economy is what has happened to public sector
pay. It is at its lowest in relation to
private sector pay since the government started collecting data.
It looks pretty bad stop it looks like public sector workers
are still feeling the pinch and bearing the brunt. Not only have we
created 3 million jobs, we have taken a lot of people completely out
of tax, raising the tax threshold for people on low incomes and
introduced the national minimum wage. And squeezed public sector
pay. There have been a lot of initiatives to help people on lower
pay. I think our economic record stands for itself. One reason we
haven't talked about it, we did take a leaf out of David Lammy's book and
we look into the future, like Brexit, the choice between Theresa
May and Jeremy Corbin. We need to move on.
Today we will take stock of the campaigns one and of April. Let's
begin with the highlights and not so highlights.
I have just chaired a meeting of the Cabinet where we agreed
that the government should call a general election.
I'll be talking about... Strong and stable leadership?
There is a reason to talking about strong and stable leadership.
There is a risk that people will kind of say,
"Well, he's just an Islingtonian herbivore,
The manifesto to see us through Brexit and beyond.
Four days ago, your manifesto rejected a cap on social care costs.
Nothing has changed from the prinicples on social care
policy that we set out in our manifesto.
Let's be clear, we have not changed the principles that we set
He has this money tree wish list in his manifesto.
There isn't a magic money tree that we can shake that suddenly
provides for everything that people want.
When it comes to taking on extremism and terrorism,
We have protected counterterrorism policing budgets.
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May.
During this Tory campaign have been a number of U-turns. The act of
holding a election was a U-turn, because we were told were not going
have one. Now it is the wider Conservative brand, and we have seen
a U-turn on some terrorism issues as well. Where is strong and stable?
I'm not sure I would characterise that as a U-turn. I don't know why
you were saying there should be a U-turn on terrorism legislation. We
have talked about that at length. Because you were talking about
detention, and you are talking... The prime ministers perfectly
entitled to talk about what we need to do to make our country safer.
That is what the country would expect. In terms of social care, we
made it very clear that we would have a cap in the sense that you
would be able to keep ?100,000 of savings. It was interesting to hear
David Lammy, who presumably has been running around for the last few
weeks saying that it is a disgrace that your house is being taken into
account. Well, your house is not taken into account when you are
alive, and he is interested in a land tax. Actually, I have been
saying that this is a woman who will negotiate for Europe and she has now
U-turn to three times in a week. How will she stand up to 2017? Your
proposals, the dimension tax, she U-turns on that. It is weakness. --
the dementia tax. No doubt many people will express on Twitter that
they dislike this kind of exchange between politicians. You might say
that they are U-turns but the fact is that Theresa May, in our
manifesto, put forward some challenging policies on issues like
social care and the Winter fuel payments. And she has been attacked
on those challenging policies, and she is facing up to them and putting
them to the country, whereas Labour are simply offering an endless list
of freebies, paid for on the never-never? If that is true, why
did you started this campaign 20 points ahead of the polls and are
now in some neck and neck. What has gone right? I'm going to answer it
in my inevitable question. The other thing that puts people off
politicians is when they say the only thing that matters is the
polls. And I have to say that in this case, I have never felt it
more. Because the polling is all over the place and it is not what is
happening on the ground. If the polling was so good, David Lammy
would not have spent yesterday in Yorkshire at three marginal Labour
seats. He would have spent them at three Tory marginal seats if they
thought Labour could win. We know what is happening on the ground.
There are going to be a lot of eggs on a lot of pollster's faces. Have
you ever seen a more poor Tory campaign? We can talk about the
wobble in 1986. This is not a wobble, this is a loss of a lead. I
think the great Sunday times, 30 years later we still talk about an
election wobble. Let's not beat about the bush, we start as the
favourites in this campaign, and I think the media have done a good job
of making it look like it is going to be a close election. The media
has done that? Given the issues that we have talked about in terms of
Jeremy Corbyn's fitness for office, his constant sucking up to terrorist
organisations... But the bigger government in this campaign, first
of all Mr Corbyn now looks like he is enjoying this election, and not
desperate for it to end, actually. He is enjoying it. Mrs May looks
like she can't wait to get over it and to bring it to an end. It has
been like a form of Chinese water torture for. I should not be
laughing... But it is intensely subjective, that analysis. I cannot
possibly answer it, given that is your view of what Theresa May has
been feeling. But her personal ratings were stratospheric and they
now have come way down. You get this line trotted out that she will not
answer questions. She has travelled five times more than Jeremy Corbyn,
and in five or six times more questions from the media. She has
been all over the country and the great thing about, she has been to
Labour marginals that we hope to take. Jeremy Corbyn has stuck to his
heartlands and he will not get out of the heartlands to face Tory
voters to win them over. But yes no, do you regret calling this election
close? I did not collared close. Elections are hard work. But I am
glad and I think we will come back with a stronger mandate. We shall
see. In about 36 hours. Anyway, that was the Conservatives.
It's the establishment versus the people.
It's our historic duty to make sure that people prevail.
How much would 10,000 police officers cost?
We believe it will be about ?300,000.
Mr Lavery, Mr Green, where is Mr Corbyn?
Our manifesto will be an offer, and we believe the policies
Why would the British people want as their leader a man
I didn't support the IRA, I don't support the IRA.
Do you regret your support for the IRA back in the 80s?
That particular quote you are referring to comes
from a now defunct left newspaper, and it had, as well...
Fair is when you bring people in when they've got jobs to come
to or it is necessary for them to come to workhere, or we need them
Whether the community gets together to support everybody,
or we just let the rich get richer, and the rest suffer.
I'll give you the figure in a moment.
You've announced a major policy and you don't know
David Lammy, Jeremy Corbyn couldn't recall the cost of his childcare
policy on the day he was launching it. John McDonnell, the Shadow
Chancellor, didn't know the size of the budget deficit and Diane Abbott
didn't know the cost of extra police officers promised in the manifesto,
nor the contents of the report on London policing, although she is a
London MP like you. Is your leadership up to running the
country? In every election cycle there are moments when quizzed about
particular figures in a certain way, you haven't quite got the numbers. I
remember in the last campaign that was a real problem for Natalie
Bennett, running for the greens, on housing. Things come up. I remember
being the first person on the news after John Prescott punched
somebody. Natalie Bennett was never going to be Prime Minister. All
these things come up. Mr Corbyn couldn't remember childcare on the
day he was launching the policy. Look, come on, I think in the end a
lot of people went into this election is almost assuming that
Jeremy Corbyn would be running scared. He has had a fantastic
campaign because he is a great campaigner, and as you have just
said, he is relishing it and the polls have closed as a consequence.
But what I asked was whether, not as campaigning abilities, which I agree
with you, have strengthened as the election has gone on, what I asked
was whether he, Mr McDonnell and Diane Abbott were competent enough
to run the country? Of course they are. We were worried at the point at
which there was a leak of our manifesto, and we got a bounce as a
consequence because it is a great manifesto. And actually, when you
knock on doors, people know the policies. They like what they are
hearing. About income tax. But if you are about to be the Shadow Home
Secretary, and do we know how Diane Abbott is? I sent her a message this
morning but I have not heard back. We know she is not well. But we do
not know how is. On the basis that she would be the next Home
Secretary, proposing 20,000 extra police officers, surely it is basic
competence to know what that would cost? Look, we're going back over
old ground. But it is the election, we are talking about the election
campaign! That is the point of the statement! It is about the election
campaign! He has given up now. It is not about Gladstone versus Disraeli,
it is about carbon versus Theresa May! -- Jeremy Corbyn versus Theresa
May. She got one interview wrong. The press has been mercilessly she
then got another one wrong on the Harris report. The press has been
mercilessly. But it is the whole thrust of our campaign, which is a
great manifesto on any analysis, traction in the country and the poll
closing. That is the story. Let me ask you this, it has been
interesting because you can often tell where parties hope to do well
by where the leaders and the other top people in that party go. And the
Tories have been going to lots of seats that years ago they would not
have had a hope of winning in the Midlands or the North. They must now
think they have, but your leader has essentially gone to areas which are
already solid Labour areas. What does that tell us? Look, I think
there is another story in this election. He is going over old
ground. There is another story, and that is returned to party politics.
It is the case that there are people who voted Ukip and those Ukip voters
are up for grabs, and are returning to mainstream parties. So of course
the Labour Party is in those areas persuading those voters to come back
to Labour. But you tended to go to seats where, not you personally but
your party leader, where Mr Corbyn, even if the Ukip vote collapsed to
the Tories, the Tories would still not win. Gateshead, last night. We
have been all over the country. Jeremy has been all over the
country, permanently on the road. And Diane Abbott, if you were
watching, we wish you a speedy recovery and we hope that illness
goes away very quickly. Making predictions the day before a general
election is a mugs game that year on the daily Latics, we are well-known
for her remarks. What are the bookies thinking? After
seven weeks of campaigning, the big question is are the Tories going to
fail at the final hurdles? They are 1-10 favourites for most tomorrow
but a month ago, it would have been a short as 1-50. The momentum has
certainly been with Jeremy Corbyn, and Labour is now in at 6-1.
Yesterday, customer placed a bet of ?1000 at 1000-1 on the greens
winning most seats. Good luck to that chap because I was not aware
that pigs could fly but the Tories are still the favourites here and
they have been the favourites for most votes. That is gone 21-6. But
the big move in the last few days comes with the thinking that there
will be a hung parliament. That is now just a 9-2 shot for an overall
majority. Labour, still a very big price to get that majority and get
over the line. But the Prime Minister, on the 1st of July, if
there is a hung parliament, punters think that Theresa May could be in
there but will she be in a better position than she was at the start
of April before she called this snap election? We still think she is the
favourite, but Jeremy Corbyn, over 70% of the bets have been for him. A
lot of punters are thinking that Theresa May might have to stand
down, having called this, and they might win not as convincingly as
they thought they would, so Amber Rudd has come into 200-1, after her
performance in the debates. Boris Johnson, someone had ?2000 on him in
a shop at Chelsea. I cannot see that happening. I think you need somebody
more strong and stable, you could say. Hammond is in there as 50-1 but
it is all going towards the Tories as we get into the final 24 hours.
That money is coming out but it is worth noting that there is a deja vu
scenario, similar to Brexit and the US election, in that there is more
money going on the favourites but more individual money going on the
outsiders. Time will tell tomorrow there is right. The bookies, the
statisticians, the pollsters, who knows? But we reckon the Tories.
You have odds of 2-9 for a Conservative majority, you need ?9
on two win ?2. Correct. What are the odds of a Tory majority north of 80,
which was the original hope of calling the election? The line is
set at Bet365. Our stats at the moment suggest Theresa May will get
a majority of 70. Those odds have come in right now. Our line at the
moment is Tory in their seat at 360. There will be people not too happy.
So that's the bookies' view, but what of the opinion polls?
Well, one firm, Survation, said on Monday it believed
the Conservative lead over Labour is down to just one point.
Other polling firms still think the Tories are as much
We're joined now by Damien Lyons-Lowe from Survation,
and Deborah Mattinson from Britain Thinks.
Welcome to you both. Your latest poll predict a 1-point lead for the
Conservatives. Some of us remember at the start of the campaign, some
polls were over 20 points. One point would mean a hung parliament, and
the Tories losing the majority, wouldn't it? It would mean using our
most recent Scotland figures from the Sunday Post, plugging those into
a Scotland predictor, and plugging, doing a simple national swing and a
future weeks, nothing too special. There would be a no overall majority
situation. So the answer is, yes. That's a yes. I was giving you my
working, so yes, hung parliament. We got there in the end. I was
beginning to lose the will to live. I'm a massive outlier here, I will
be the most wrong or the most right. Translations will follow. Yes.
Debra, to you, do you agree with this Survation poll, is it an
outlier or mainstream? It is an outlier. In a word, no. I don't
think so. Because? I think that what Survation has done is interesting.
Damien shows his working on his website, but I think there is a big
presumption about turnout, about young people, there is a danger that
his sample includes too many workers too highly engaged in politics. Also
the fieldwork, am I right, it was before Saturday night? Friday and
Saturday. You have got another one coming up? We do. When is that
coming up? What day is it today? Have I got to tell you which day it
is? It is a really reliable poll. It is complicated and it is Wednesday.
It is coming out at 11pm tonight. Good, I am glad we got there, too.
On the 1%, what turned out among younger people are you assuming? In
the post on Survation .com, you can give a 2015 assumption of turnout,
and the results don't change. You can use a 2015 assumption turnout,
it makes two points difference. By Micro age category, you can use, if
you like, and EU referendum turnout by it. Turnout went up by a lot. It
did. In 2015, the turnout was 46% among 18-24s. What are you assuming
it will be this time? I read the article and let people do whatever
they want to do. What it doesn't change our figures.
OK, I can talk about this the days, we all have the same numbers. All
the pollsters have the same numbers, except their turnout weights are
jamming up... OK. I am not sure I entirely followed it. But I do think
that is an issue. The voting age when thing is an issue with the
sample as well. It is a random sample, there is no issue with
engagement. We start with a random sample. You have 1.2% saying they
did not vote in last year's referendum, and a further 10.6
saying they can't remember. Only 12.5% saying they did not vote in
2015. That's... In your sample, suggesting to me... Let me ask you
this before we get lost in these statistics, let me ask you this, why
is there such a disconnect between what party activists on the left and
right are reporting from the Midlands and the north, and the
opinion polls? Including labour, they are more gloomy about Labour
than the polls, which are rather good for them. Two things, one is
small data, rather than big data. I would say this, wouldn't I, but I
think small data gives you a nuance that you don't get out the big data.
It is also how votes are distributed. Even if young people
vote, they vote in places that aren't helpful to Labour. Because
they are already going to win? Exactly. We are running out of time.
We want to have you both about when we know the result, but what you
think the result will be? A comfortable win for the
Conservatives. We will update the Poulton, but no overall majority.
Got you. Only one of you can be right. We will see.
It might have felt at times during this election that two-party
politics was making a comeback, but there are of course
plenty of other parties out their still vying for your vote,
and they could yet make an impact on the result.
Here's how they've fared during the campaign.
I voted Leave, and I'm proud to have voted Leave.
You're a very aggressive man as well.
Sometimes in politics, the tide comes in, the tide goes out.
Do you need more workers from outside Wales?
We're quite happy with the ones we've got.
The Prime Minister is not here tonight.
She can't be bothered, so why should you?
In fact, Bake Off is on BBC Two, next.
In terms of what we do to President Trump,
I'm trying to think of a polite answer.
Amber, for example, her party have said in three manifesto is now that
they're going to get immigration down to the tens of thousands.
This PM is not so much the iron Lady than she is the Queen of the U-turn.
People don't want political party leaders telling them what is and
isn't sin. The most embarrassing thing you've
done when you were drunk? This isn't terribly embarrassing,
I'm sorry, but I'm very bad at recognising people,
and that probably gets worse. I've tried to get you to
answer the question... That's exactly
what I'm doing, Andrew. A flavour of the campaign for some
of the smaller parties. We have seen a tweet from Diane Abbott touched by
the messages of support, still standing. Will rejoin the fray soon.
Vote Labour. Of course, other parties are available.
At the Daily Politics we're greeting it with a mix of
child-like excitement and world-weary exhaustion.
Well someone who never tires of the political
treadmill is our Ellie, here's her guide to how
By 9:55, you need to be ready to go depending on how you spend election.
That is when the BBC programmes stop. When the polls close at ten,
we get the exit poll. The first result, usually Sunderland, will
race in by 10:45, but it will be quiet until 1am, when we should have
around a dozen results. They should give us a good idea if the exit poll
is right or not. It's also when some of the results
will come in for the Labour held marginals. If the Conservatives win
these, it could be an indication that Theresa May is on course to
pull in a substantial majority. From 2am onwards, results from Scotland
come in. At any party staged a comeback against the assembly? We
will also start to see the first Conservative held marginals around
then, too. If the Conservatives can't hold onto these, kid it could
be a sign they are losing their majority.
Around 3am, we should be in full swing, results coming in at quite a
pace. By 5am, we should find out whether Paul Nuttall has been
successful in his bid to become a Ukip MP. And by 6am, whether the
Greens's Caroline Lucas has held the seat. It could be a long night.
Now of course, there's only one place to watch
election night unfold, and that's on BBC One
from the moment the polls close at 10 o'clock.
Emily Maitlis is at the BBC's Election Centre.
Another big build up to the exit poll tomorrow night. Absolutely
right. I will give you a guided tour of the studio to start. Down below,
David Dimbleby will be at the main table, and you can see some of our
commentators, let's call them, that's the big screen where you will
see the exit poll come up bang on 10pm. We have been playing around
with predictions and scenarios in the rehearsals. This is my touch
screen. That is the place to be on the night. I will bring you every
was old, trying to work out from the exit poll the kind of forecasts and
seats that might be changing hands. Down here, I don't know if you can
get down here, but it is a plain green area that magically becomes
Downing Street, the House of Commons, the walk to power and all
the other things that Jeremy Vine does with his virtual reality set.
At the moment, it is a gentle buzz of activity. It will be absolutely
alive and kicking come 6pm tomorrow evening when all the desks you can
see will be full. This is our bank of psephology 's calculating and
recalibrating the exit poll, updating the results we get in as we
get them. It looks very exciting. You look like you are on the bridge
of the starship enterprise. On the fridge? On the bridge. We have
locked that for the next 12 hours. Thanks very much. Good luck on the
night. Thanks, Andrew. You will be in your constituency, TV
appearances? I will do TV and rush back to my constituency. And you are
in Oxfordshire? Yeah. Thanks to all our guests, especially
Ed Vaizey and David Lammy. There is no Daily Politics tomorrow
as it's polling day. Broadcasters do nothing on election
day, it is convention and the rules as well. Polling day tomorrow.
But remember you'll be able to watch all the election results come
in from 10pm on BBC One and I'll be back on Friday on BBC One
from 7am and through the day, getting all the reaction
here in Westminster, so do join me then. Bye bye.
I've had enough... ..alternative facts.