07/06/2017 Daily Politics

Welcome to the Daily Politics and the last

day of campaigning ahead of tomorrow's general election.

The leaders have been clocking up the air miles.

Theresa May was pressing the flesh at a meat market at half five this

She's been talking about Brexit and new measures

Jeremy Corbyn began the day at a rally in Glasgow,

telling his supporters there are just 24 hours

But he's had to reshuffle his top team after Diane Abbott stands aside

The other party leaders are all out making their eleventh-hour

pitches to the voters, and we'll be looking back at how

this dramatic election campaign has unfolded.

And I'll have our usual step-by-step guide to election night to help

All that in the next hour - and with us for the duration, two men

hoping to be re-elected as MPs tomorrow - Ed Vaizey

for the Conservatives and David Lammy for Labour.

And what better way to round off their campaigns than by appearing

on the last Daily Politics election special?

I'm sorry, that should have read finish off their campaigns. We shall

see. Anyway, welcome to both of you. So today we'll be reflecting

on this final frenetic day of the election and looking back

at the whole of the campaign. But let's begin with a look

at the front pages. Most are still understandably

focused on the aftermath of the terror attack in London

at the weekend. But some have a more political angle

and the common theme is security. The Sun, picking up a story

from blogger Guido Fawkes, says Jeremy Corbyn gave a speech

at a demonstration attended by members of the outlawed

group Al-Muhajaroon, some said to be dressed

as suicide bombers Labour says it was a public event

and Mr Corbyn was not The Guardian's headline is 'May

threatens to dismantle human rights laws in wake of terror attacks',

following on from a speech by the Prime Minister last night

when she set out a series The Financial Times

leads on that story too. It says Theresa May is targeting

Labour heartlands and is 'ramping up the anti-terror rhetoric'

in response to criticism of her And the Daily Mail's headline

is "apologists for terror" with pictures of Jeremy Corbyn,

John McDonnell and Diane Abbott. The paper is no fan of Labour's top

team and says they have spent their whole career 'cosying up

to those who hate our country'. Well, let's take a look

at that announcement She's talking about tightening

restrictions on suspects, making it easier to expel foreign

offenders and, if necessary, opting out of some human

rights laws, which she says are used to block

efforts to deport terrorists. and then we'll hear from the Labour

leader Jeremy Corbyn responding. I mean longer prison

sentences for those convicted I mean making it easier

for the authorities to deport foreign terrorist suspects back

to their own country. And I mean doing more to restrict

the freedom and movements of terrorist subjects when we have

enough evidence to know they are a threat, but not enough

evidence to prosecute them in court. And if our human rights laws

stop us from doing it, we'll change the laws

so we can do it. We won't defeat terrorism

by ripping up our basic We defeat terrorism by our

communities, by our vigilance, and by police action to isolate

and detain those that Obviously, if somebody is a foreign

national resident in Britain who is committing crimes,

then clearly, the law The issue is police numbers

and police security. That was the Prime Minister and

Jeremy Corbyn. Ed Vaizey, three weeks ago when Theresa May launch

the Tory manifesto, she guaranteed the Human Rights Act would continue

to apply and we would remain subject to the European Court of Human

Rights. Is that still valid? As far as I am aware, it is still valid and

there are plenty in the Conservative Party you support the articles on

human rights. What she said yesterday was deaf. If our human

rights laws get in the way of doing it, we will change the laws. But

that is not what she said in a manner that still? What you said in

the manifesto was that we would remain a signatory to the European

convention and we would have a Human Rights Act. -- in her manifesto. In

France, as you know, you can opt out of bits of the European convention.

So is that a possibility? I am not a Home Office minister and I am not

privy to the Prime Minister's thinking but logically it would be a

possibility for the UK if it felt it necessary as other countries has

done, as Ireland did during the troubles, to derivate from it if

they feel it necessary. There will be a range of things they could

potentially do. She says that if our human rights laws get in the way, we

will change the law. How do you change the human rights of ECA char?

As I say, you can have a derivation. -- ECHR. You would have a Human

Rights Act that you can potentially amend. She said in the manifesto, we

will not repeal or replace. I think the interesting thing, we can talk

about process or the substance of what people are having to face up

to. But we're talking about someone who was Home Secretary for six

years. Two things come from these terrible events in Manchester and

London and one is this grey area where you know people are extremists

but they have not committed a crime. It is quite clear that the guy who

was on the Channel 4 documentary was on the extremes but the authorities

felt they couldn't do anything because he had not committed a

crime. The Prime Minister made it explicit that that is clearly an

area of concern. How do you deal with this when people go right up to

the edge of breaking the law? The authorities know that common sense

dictates that they are risk. So why did you not seek control orders? The

control orders were consistently struck down. So you change the laws

to make sure that the course can do that. But these were much softer. We

wanted to make sure they were not consistently struck down. There is

no point having a tough law if it gets knocked back every time. It is

more important to have a law that the courts accept. Was it a mistake

to scrap control orders? No. I think you can scrap the concept of control

orders and still put controls on people who you think are a danger to

the public and you can use it through this new process. It is not

necessary because the courts can't overturning them. How many of these

not so tough control orders have you had? This is not the traditional

survivor, where you test my knowledge. -- traditional ECHR. It

is probably like 100. It is not like 100. Having opposed Mr Blair when he

wanted a longer time to be able to detain suspects, Theresa May now

looks like she wants more detention as well. Well, if you remember Mr

Blair... 28 days. He put out a proposal for 48 days. He, my

standing coalition, we were reduced to 14 days. So you played coalition

politics rather than the security of the country. That was give-and-take

on both sides about what people thought were appropriate. Let me

give you one final question. Why would longer prison sentences, as

Mrs May has called for, why would that deter those, as in Westminster,

Manchester and London Bridge, who are on a suicide mission? I think

what people are talking about is a range of measures to combat that

terrorist threat. But longer prison sentences would make no difference

to those people who carried out suicide attacks? It may be that if

you are able to look at how you catch people before they commit

these crimes, and extend the prosecution, putting them away from

longer, it will keep the public sector. I am sure there are hundreds

of people who are due to be released and the public would think,

actually, that person could still potentially pose a threat and we

wish they had been given a longer prison sentence. I think it is

possible, perfectly possible to look at a range of different measures to

combat terrorism. You want to respond to that? Just to say that

look, I was in Belmarsh prison a few weeks ago with some men there that

have been put there because of terrorism. And these are seriously

bad people. They need to be kept under house arrest. They need to be

permanently tanked. We need to control who they can speak to and

liaise with. Which was the original control orders. And that was watered

down. Would you like to bring this back? I am for it. These are bad

people and the need to be controlled. Do you accept that

control orders were consistently overturned by the court, it was a

unilateral decision. In coalition with the Liberal Democrats you

watered down. That is what happened. Let me ask you this, David Lammy.

Because it interesting, you say you would like to go back to that

control order. But as your leader, Mr Corbyn, has he ever voted for any

toughening of the anti-terrorist laws? He hasn't, never. Does that

make you uneasy? Well, he wasn't leading the Labour Party at the

time. He was speaking from the backbenches. And you will find...

Does that matter? Is the man who could be our next Prime Minister and

indeed boasted in 2011, quote, I have been involved in opposing

anti-terrorist legislation ever since I first went into Parliament

in 1983. Theresa May voted against same-sex legislation. She has

voted... Lets stick to the anti-terror legislation. The point

is, Andrew, of course you can go back in a parliamentary career of 30

years. But he never voted once. You could find things in a backbencher's

record that do not stand up. I have not denied that he never voted. I am

answering your question. Why should we trust the security of this

country to someone who is opposed and has opposed every effort to

toughen up anti-terrorism legislation? That is a decision for

the electorates tomorrow. But what is your answer to my question? We

should not be judging him on the basis of that, we should be basing

it on what he is saying today. What he's saying today is that it is the

Conservatives that watered down control orders and cut the police

budgets under Theresa May, that is the government that we have had and

is what they stand for. Andrew izzard, at a time when we're

probably more dependent on the security services than ever before,

who is it that a couple of years ago wanted to abolish MI5? I am not

aware of that one. John McDonnell, the number two. I am so unaware of

that. He signed a document and indeed there is a picture of him

holding this document. He wanted to abolish MI5. So you have a leader

who has never supported any toughening of the anti-terrorism

situation and a number two, a Shadow Chancellor who wanted to abolish

MI5. Well, you're putting that to me and I have never heard of before. I

assume if they wanted to do it he wanted to replace it with something

else. Well, he also wanted to abolish armed police. All of these

individuals were on the backbenches for years. And they are now subject

to... It is your responsibility, can I pick up on collective

responsibility. Briefly. Are you going to sit here and say to Andrew

that the Tories are weak and you want tough control orders? Your

Brexit secretary, Kier Starmer, has been touring the studios this

morning saying that Theresa May is wrong to question the Human Rights

Act yet you are here to say you will bring in tough anti-terrorism is.

Nobody believes a word of it because Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell had

been sympathetic to terrorism for the last 30 years. But she turned on

national insurance, and has you turned on the dementia tax and now

she is U-turning on this. How can you trust someone who you turns like

that? But we're talking about security, the security of the

nation, and we're talking about lives. We're talking about an

election campaign which has seen two terrorist attacks during the

campaign itself. Is it a disadvantage that your leader seems

to be addressing lots of meetings over the years of people who are

extremists, Islamist, anti-Semites, homophobes, misogynists. He has

addressed these various groups. This latest one, there is a group in the

audience shouting, gas the dues, gas Tel Aviv, and he is addressing that

group. Does that not concern you? I find that deeply offensive. Any

suggestion of gassing Tel Aviv or anything that is about attacking our

friends in Israel, I think is full. But what I would say is that on a

programme like this, at the end of the election, no offence, you have

spent the last few minutes on the past. How else to judge you? How

else can I judge you? I have to judge you by your record. I expect

that the manifesto and going forward, the Conservative record is

a regular government of cutting police, watering down control

orders, and ending the preventer gender. That is their record and you

are talking about backbenchers in the past.

The viewers and voters will determine.

Let's find out how the parties are spending the final

day of this campaign. Adam Fleming has all the details.

I'm spending the last few hours of the Daily Politics at Westminster on

College Green, which has been turned into a tented media for the media to

cover the elections. I got in trouble with CNN for photo bombing

them. Hello, world. That is the BBC sport up there. I hope you have a

head for heights. It is windy as well. I am sure it will be an

enjoyable watch. As is customary, the last 24 hour sees party leaders

running around like headless chickens, but it is a carefully

choreographed dash for votes. Here is what has happened this morning.

Ridiculously early o'clock and the PM was taking the phrase meet and

greet literally by visiting Smithfield market. Obviously not

courting of Eden vote, then. Listen carefully and you can hear a handful

of butchers booing. BOOING Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was in

Solihull to continue his cooking Tour of Britain. He whipped up

sausages with sauerkraut as a warning against what he calls a hard

Tory breakfast... I mean, Brexit. In Glasgow, the Labour leader held

the first of six rallies today. Behind the scenes, shadow police Mr

Lyn Brown took over from the Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott, who is

still ill. Actually, Jeremy has been sounding a bit cranky lately. They

claimed my voice was bad. Outrageous. My voice is... Fine! Mrs

May was at a bowling club in Southampton fresh from revelations

that he ran through wheat fields as a child. We learned another personal

gem about the PM. Her teen order. Cup of tea, no milk. Thanks for

coming out. Something stronger for Tim Farron, by this point, he was in

a pub in St Albans to talk about business rates.

Poor muscle to Ukip's message to Great Yarmouth. They love a market,

these politicians. Mr Corbyn and his press entourage have just arrived

for a speech in a field in Runcorn. As we speak, Caroline Lucas is in

the green spot of Brighton. Theresa May has touched down in Norfolk in

the last dash for votes. The dash will continue over lunch

time this afternoon and into deceiving. Theresa May is going

North Norfolk to the Midlands. The Lib Dems are going West to Oxford

and Bristol. That is where Jonathan Bartley will be. At midnight, the

only thing that will be blowing through here is the Tumbleweed,

because we will all be legally silent on polling day until 10pm

when we get the exit poll. Thanks, Adam. Legally silent for 24 hours or

less, enjoy it. Now, compared to the 2015

election, when the deficit There's been relatively little

discussion of the public finances That's not because the deficit has

disappeared, it's still there, although a third of the size

of what it was in 2010. So we thought we'd remind

you of where the two main parties stand when it comes to the economy,

and how they plan to balance The Conservatives have

said their plan is to eliminate the budget deficit by 2025,

10 years on from their They've ruled out a rise in VAT,

but have made no specific pledges on national insurance contributions

or the rate of income tax. They will, however, go ahead

with their planned tax cuts by increasing the personal tax

allowance and the higher While also fulfilling a previous

pledge to cut corporation tax on businesses to 17% by 2020,

making it the lowest rate Labour's plan is to spend ?25

billion a year on infrastructure, a policy that could boost growth

in the short term but would add They've gone further

than the Conservatives in promising no increases in national insurance

as well as no rise in VAT. But they do plan to reintroduce

the 50p tax rate and raise income As well as increasing

the corporation tax rate Both parties have also said they'll

be looking at changes to other major The Conservatives are promising

a review of business rates, to take better account

of online businesses. Although the party's previous

attempts to reform business rates While Labour is courting

controversy of its own, it's promising a review of council

tax and business rates, and suggests instead

a tax on the value of the land. Let's pick up on the last idea.

David Lammy, a land value tax to replace council tax and business

rates, do you approve of that? Actually, in the book I wrote after

the 2010 election, I refloated the idea of a land value tax the two

reasons. One, because at the moment we have council tax, which is

effectively our tax on property. It has not been revalued since 1991. I

think that is grossly unfair. Two, because here, if you are serious

about the North and south divide, here in the south of England,

effectively, there are people making more on their home in a year than

people get paid. If you are able to play the lottery of land, and that

is the case for those of us of a certain age who bought property

20-30 years ago, or those who inherit from their parents, you can

make huge gains. For that reason, it is right to look at land. You can

redistribute money in a different way. We need a better formula for

taxing those individuals. Right, but it could mean that ordinary people

in not very expensive homes, particularly in London and the

south-east, could pay a lot more. We have had no details about this land

value tax and how it will be calibrated. But assuming it will be

small, 2% or 3%, you can end up paying two or three times as much

per year as you currently do on council tax. It about fairness. In a

sense, are we going to stick with the council tax where the bands have

not been relived at the 26 years, or should we consult looking at

something different? I think the manifesto Sibley says let's have a

look. I understand that. But any calculation I have seen involving

people whose council tax at the moment may be ?1000 a year, ?1200,

under this formula, even on modest land value taxation assumptions, it

goes up to two, three, 4000 a year for ordinary families. My view is

the current system is unfair on young people. It's an unfair on

people beyond London and the south-east. Would it be fair to

increase a very generous... To double or triple their local taxes,

would that be fair? I don't recognise that. You haven't done the

work. Come on, the burden of this will fall on some very rich people

in London. The burden will fall on everybody. That's how it works.

Unless you read. I was in Yorkshire yesterday, how did they end up

paying more out of this scheme? -- unless you rent. Particularly in the

London and south-east area, they would pay more, including your

constituents. Not my constituency! Of course they would. Most of my

constituents are in private rented or council homes. Not my

constituents at all. If you want to redistribute wealth to the north and

rebalance the economy, London... All right. We need to look at this, of

course we do! Where's the Chancellor? He's a lot more visible

than John McDonnell, I can tell you that! I think I read on a website

today that he has got the third most mentions in the media after Amber

Rudd and Boris Johnson. That is because people like me asking where

he is. Busy missing the election? I follow him on Twitter. You should

follow him on Twitter. He has been in a lot of Labour seats. Why is he

excluded from the National campaign? He has been prominent. He likes to

pound the pavements. He's the Chancellor. Why have you not fought

this campaign in any way on your economic record? That is a fair

point. I wish we had talked about our economic record. We have created

3 million jobs. We have reduced tax the 31 million people. Are you

ashamed of it? We have cut the deficit by two thirds. We have a

fantastic record. Why no mention of it? I don't remember Mrs made making

a speech about it? The election takes on a life of its own. Also,

not of the theme when we started the election was about Brexit and other

issues have taken over. Not the economy. We haven't talked enough

about the land value tax. We have done that. Can you remember a

previous campaign in which the Conservatives, all parties, made so

little about the economy? Well, I have been campaigning since probably

the 1987 election. I don't remember all campaigns. Somebody said to me

last night, in 1992, just as you would engulf the Tory party, Europe

did not feature in the election campaign. The economy has always

been central. People are obsessed about it, but you have given me the

opportunity to talk about our economic record, for which I am

grateful. On the labour policy, this extra 50 billion a year of current

spending, I put aside what you would borrow to invest as well, but on

current spending, 50 billion, and it will come, you say you will raise it

from companies and the rich, or at least the much better off. The ISS

is clear, it says "You cannot raise that amount of money for only

countries and the rich." It is not quite 50 billion, that is the first

thing. Let's get the figure right. There are some on Costa promises as

well. 50 billion is a nice, round figure. You cannot raise that from

countries and the bridge alone. "It Doesn't add up stock" that is what

the ISS says. We have been very clear that we want to see a

corporation tax rise to 26% and not 19%. That is corporations. You won't

get that amount of money. We think there should be writers for those on

80,000 a year. We should return to a 50p income tax rate for very high

earners. We think... You can't raise that amount of money. What... What

if you don't? What if... You borrow more that is a decision for a

Chancellor, as you know that may be one of the reasons you haven't

talked too much about the economy is what has happened to public sector

pay. It is at its lowest in relation to

private sector pay since the government started collecting data.

It looks pretty bad stop it looks like public sector workers

are still feeling the pinch and bearing the brunt. Not only have we

created 3 million jobs, we have taken a lot of people completely out

of tax, raising the tax threshold for people on low incomes and

introduced the national minimum wage. And squeezed public sector

pay. There have been a lot of initiatives to help people on lower

pay. I think our economic record stands for itself. One reason we

haven't talked about it, we did take a leaf out of David Lammy's book and

we look into the future, like Brexit, the choice between Theresa

May and Jeremy Corbin. We need to move on.

Today we will take stock of the campaigns one and of April. Let's

begin with the highlights and not so highlights.

I have just chaired a meeting of the Cabinet where we agreed

that the government should call a general election.

I'll be talking about... Strong and stable leadership?

There is a reason to talking about strong and stable leadership.

There is a risk that people will kind of say,

"Well, he's just an Islingtonian herbivore,

The manifesto to see us through Brexit and beyond.

Four days ago, your manifesto rejected a cap on social care costs.

Nothing has changed from the prinicples on social care

policy that we set out in our manifesto.

Let's be clear, we have not changed the principles that we set

He has this money tree wish list in his manifesto.

There isn't a magic money tree that we can shake that suddenly

provides for everything that people want.

When it comes to taking on extremism and terrorism,

We have protected counterterrorism policing budgets.

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May.

During this Tory campaign have been a number of U-turns. The act of

holding a election was a U-turn, because we were told were not going

have one. Now it is the wider Conservative brand, and we have seen

a U-turn on some terrorism issues as well. Where is strong and stable?

I'm not sure I would characterise that as a U-turn. I don't know why

you were saying there should be a U-turn on terrorism legislation. We

have talked about that at length. Because you were talking about

detention, and you are talking... The prime ministers perfectly

entitled to talk about what we need to do to make our country safer.

That is what the country would expect. In terms of social care, we

made it very clear that we would have a cap in the sense that you

would be able to keep ?100,000 of savings. It was interesting to hear

David Lammy, who presumably has been running around for the last few

weeks saying that it is a disgrace that your house is being taken into

account. Well, your house is not taken into account when you are

alive, and he is interested in a land tax. Actually, I have been

saying that this is a woman who will negotiate for Europe and she has now

U-turn to three times in a week. How will she stand up to 2017? Your

proposals, the dimension tax, she U-turns on that. It is weakness. --

the dementia tax. No doubt many people will express on Twitter that

they dislike this kind of exchange between politicians. You might say

that they are U-turns but the fact is that Theresa May, in our

manifesto, put forward some challenging policies on issues like

social care and the Winter fuel payments. And she has been attacked

on those challenging policies, and she is facing up to them and putting

them to the country, whereas Labour are simply offering an endless list

of freebies, paid for on the never-never? If that is true, why

did you started this campaign 20 points ahead of the polls and are

now in some neck and neck. What has gone right? I'm going to answer it

in my inevitable question. The other thing that puts people off

politicians is when they say the only thing that matters is the

polls. And I have to say that in this case, I have never felt it

more. Because the polling is all over the place and it is not what is

happening on the ground. If the polling was so good, David Lammy

would not have spent yesterday in Yorkshire at three marginal Labour

seats. He would have spent them at three Tory marginal seats if they

thought Labour could win. We know what is happening on the ground.

There are going to be a lot of eggs on a lot of pollster's faces. Have

you ever seen a more poor Tory campaign? We can talk about the

wobble in 1986. This is not a wobble, this is a loss of a lead. I

think the great Sunday times, 30 years later we still talk about an

election wobble. Let's not beat about the bush, we start as the

favourites in this campaign, and I think the media have done a good job

of making it look like it is going to be a close election. The media

has done that? Given the issues that we have talked about in terms of

Jeremy Corbyn's fitness for office, his constant sucking up to terrorist

organisations... But the bigger government in this campaign, first

of all Mr Corbyn now looks like he is enjoying this election, and not

desperate for it to end, actually. He is enjoying it. Mrs May looks

like she can't wait to get over it and to bring it to an end. It has

been like a form of Chinese water torture for. I should not be

laughing... But it is intensely subjective, that analysis. I cannot

possibly answer it, given that is your view of what Theresa May has

been feeling. But her personal ratings were stratospheric and they

now have come way down. You get this line trotted out that she will not

answer questions. She has travelled five times more than Jeremy Corbyn,

and in five or six times more questions from the media. She has

been all over the country and the great thing about, she has been to

Labour marginals that we hope to take. Jeremy Corbyn has stuck to his

heartlands and he will not get out of the heartlands to face Tory

voters to win them over. But yes no, do you regret calling this election

close? I did not collared close. Elections are hard work. But I am

glad and I think we will come back with a stronger mandate. We shall

see. In about 36 hours. Anyway, that was the Conservatives.

It's the establishment versus the people.

It's our historic duty to make sure that people prevail.

How much would 10,000 police officers cost?

We believe it will be about ?300,000.

Mr Lavery, Mr Green, where is Mr Corbyn?

Our manifesto will be an offer, and we believe the policies

Why would the British people want as their leader a man

I didn't support the IRA, I don't support the IRA.

Do you regret your support for the IRA back in the 80s?

That particular quote you are referring to comes

from a now defunct left newspaper, and it had, as well...

Fair is when you bring people in when they've got jobs to come

to or it is necessary for them to come to workhere, or we need them

Whether the community gets together to support everybody,

or we just let the rich get richer, and the rest suffer.

I'll give you the figure in a moment.

You've announced a major policy and you don't know

David Lammy, Jeremy Corbyn couldn't recall the cost of his childcare

policy on the day he was launching it. John McDonnell, the Shadow

Chancellor, didn't know the size of the budget deficit and Diane Abbott

didn't know the cost of extra police officers promised in the manifesto,

nor the contents of the report on London policing, although she is a

London MP like you. Is your leadership up to running the

country? In every election cycle there are moments when quizzed about

particular figures in a certain way, you haven't quite got the numbers. I

remember in the last campaign that was a real problem for Natalie

Bennett, running for the greens, on housing. Things come up. I remember

being the first person on the news after John Prescott punched

somebody. Natalie Bennett was never going to be Prime Minister. All

these things come up. Mr Corbyn couldn't remember childcare on the

day he was launching the policy. Look, come on, I think in the end a

lot of people went into this election is almost assuming that

Jeremy Corbyn would be running scared. He has had a fantastic

campaign because he is a great campaigner, and as you have just

said, he is relishing it and the polls have closed as a consequence.

But what I asked was whether, not as campaigning abilities, which I agree

with you, have strengthened as the election has gone on, what I asked

was whether he, Mr McDonnell and Diane Abbott were competent enough

to run the country? Of course they are. We were worried at the point at

which there was a leak of our manifesto, and we got a bounce as a

consequence because it is a great manifesto. And actually, when you

knock on doors, people know the policies. They like what they are

hearing. About income tax. But if you are about to be the Shadow Home

Secretary, and do we know how Diane Abbott is? I sent her a message this

morning but I have not heard back. We know she is not well. But we do

not know how is. On the basis that she would be the next Home

Secretary, proposing 20,000 extra police officers, surely it is basic

competence to know what that would cost? Look, we're going back over

old ground. But it is the election, we are talking about the election

campaign! That is the point of the statement! It is about the election

campaign! He has given up now. It is not about Gladstone versus Disraeli,

it is about carbon versus Theresa May! -- Jeremy Corbyn versus Theresa

May. She got one interview wrong. The press has been mercilessly she

then got another one wrong on the Harris report. The press has been

mercilessly. But it is the whole thrust of our campaign, which is a

great manifesto on any analysis, traction in the country and the poll

closing. That is the story. Let me ask you this, it has been

interesting because you can often tell where parties hope to do well

by where the leaders and the other top people in that party go. And the

Tories have been going to lots of seats that years ago they would not

have had a hope of winning in the Midlands or the North. They must now

think they have, but your leader has essentially gone to areas which are

already solid Labour areas. What does that tell us? Look, I think

there is another story in this election. He is going over old

ground. There is another story, and that is returned to party politics.

It is the case that there are people who voted Ukip and those Ukip voters

are up for grabs, and are returning to mainstream parties. So of course

the Labour Party is in those areas persuading those voters to come back

to Labour. But you tended to go to seats where, not you personally but

your party leader, where Mr Corbyn, even if the Ukip vote collapsed to

the Tories, the Tories would still not win. Gateshead, last night. We

have been all over the country. Jeremy has been all over the

country, permanently on the road. And Diane Abbott, if you were

watching, we wish you a speedy recovery and we hope that illness

goes away very quickly. Making predictions the day before a general

election is a mugs game that year on the daily Latics, we are well-known

for her remarks. What are the bookies thinking? After

seven weeks of campaigning, the big question is are the Tories going to

fail at the final hurdles? They are 1-10 favourites for most tomorrow

but a month ago, it would have been a short as 1-50. The momentum has

certainly been with Jeremy Corbyn, and Labour is now in at 6-1.

Yesterday, customer placed a bet of ?1000 at 1000-1 on the greens

winning most seats. Good luck to that chap because I was not aware

that pigs could fly but the Tories are still the favourites here and

they have been the favourites for most votes. That is gone 21-6. But

the big move in the last few days comes with the thinking that there

will be a hung parliament. That is now just a 9-2 shot for an overall

majority. Labour, still a very big price to get that majority and get

over the line. But the Prime Minister, on the 1st of July, if

there is a hung parliament, punters think that Theresa May could be in

there but will she be in a better position than she was at the start

of April before she called this snap election? We still think she is the

favourite, but Jeremy Corbyn, over 70% of the bets have been for him. A

lot of punters are thinking that Theresa May might have to stand

down, having called this, and they might win not as convincingly as

they thought they would, so Amber Rudd has come into 200-1, after her

performance in the debates. Boris Johnson, someone had ?2000 on him in

a shop at Chelsea. I cannot see that happening. I think you need somebody

more strong and stable, you could say. Hammond is in there as 50-1 but

it is all going towards the Tories as we get into the final 24 hours.

That money is coming out but it is worth noting that there is a deja vu

scenario, similar to Brexit and the US election, in that there is more

money going on the favourites but more individual money going on the

outsiders. Time will tell tomorrow there is right. The bookies, the

statisticians, the pollsters, who knows? But we reckon the Tories.

You have odds of 2-9 for a Conservative majority, you need ?9

on two win ?2. Correct. What are the odds of a Tory majority north of 80,

which was the original hope of calling the election? The line is

set at Bet365. Our stats at the moment suggest Theresa May will get

a majority of 70. Those odds have come in right now. Our line at the

moment is Tory in their seat at 360. There will be people not too happy.

So that's the bookies' view, but what of the opinion polls?

Well, one firm, Survation, said on Monday it believed

the Conservative lead over Labour is down to just one point.

Other polling firms still think the Tories are as much

We're joined now by Damien Lyons-Lowe from Survation,

and Deborah Mattinson from Britain Thinks.

Welcome to you both. Your latest poll predict a 1-point lead for the

Conservatives. Some of us remember at the start of the campaign, some

polls were over 20 points. One point would mean a hung parliament, and

the Tories losing the majority, wouldn't it? It would mean using our

most recent Scotland figures from the Sunday Post, plugging those into

a Scotland predictor, and plugging, doing a simple national swing and a

future weeks, nothing too special. There would be a no overall majority

situation. So the answer is, yes. That's a yes. I was giving you my

working, so yes, hung parliament. We got there in the end. I was

beginning to lose the will to live. I'm a massive outlier here, I will

be the most wrong or the most right. Translations will follow. Yes.

Debra, to you, do you agree with this Survation poll, is it an

outlier or mainstream? It is an outlier. In a word, no. I don't

think so. Because? I think that what Survation has done is interesting.

Damien shows his working on his website, but I think there is a big

presumption about turnout, about young people, there is a danger that

his sample includes too many workers too highly engaged in politics. Also

the fieldwork, am I right, it was before Saturday night? Friday and

Saturday. You have got another one coming up? We do. When is that

coming up? What day is it today? Have I got to tell you which day it

is? It is a really reliable poll. It is complicated and it is Wednesday.

It is coming out at 11pm tonight. Good, I am glad we got there, too.

On the 1%, what turned out among younger people are you assuming? In

the post on Survation .com, you can give a 2015 assumption of turnout,

and the results don't change. You can use a 2015 assumption turnout,

it makes two points difference. By Micro age category, you can use, if

you like, and EU referendum turnout by it. Turnout went up by a lot. It

did. In 2015, the turnout was 46% among 18-24s. What are you assuming

it will be this time? I read the article and let people do whatever

they want to do. What it doesn't change our figures.

OK, I can talk about this the days, we all have the same numbers. All

the pollsters have the same numbers, except their turnout weights are

jamming up... OK. I am not sure I entirely followed it. But I do think

that is an issue. The voting age when thing is an issue with the

sample as well. It is a random sample, there is no issue with

engagement. We start with a random sample. You have 1.2% saying they

did not vote in last year's referendum, and a further 10.6

saying they can't remember. Only 12.5% saying they did not vote in

2015. That's... In your sample, suggesting to me... Let me ask you

this before we get lost in these statistics, let me ask you this, why

is there such a disconnect between what party activists on the left and

right are reporting from the Midlands and the north, and the

opinion polls? Including labour, they are more gloomy about Labour

than the polls, which are rather good for them. Two things, one is

small data, rather than big data. I would say this, wouldn't I, but I

think small data gives you a nuance that you don't get out the big data.

It is also how votes are distributed. Even if young people

vote, they vote in places that aren't helpful to Labour. Because

they are already going to win? Exactly. We are running out of time.

We want to have you both about when we know the result, but what you

think the result will be? A comfortable win for the

Conservatives. We will update the Poulton, but no overall majority.

Got you. Only one of you can be right. We will see.

It might have felt at times during this election that two-party

politics was making a comeback, but there are of course

plenty of other parties out their still vying for your vote,

and they could yet make an impact on the result.

Here's how they've fared during the campaign.

I voted Leave, and I'm proud to have voted Leave.

You're a very aggressive man as well.

Sometimes in politics, the tide comes in, the tide goes out.

Do you need more workers from outside Wales?

We're quite happy with the ones we've got.

The Prime Minister is not here tonight.

She can't be bothered, so why should you?

In fact, Bake Off is on BBC Two, next.

In terms of what we do to President Trump,

I'm trying to think of a polite answer.

Amber, for example, her party have said in three manifesto is now that

they're going to get immigration down to the tens of thousands.

This PM is not so much the iron Lady than she is the Queen of the U-turn.

People don't want political party leaders telling them what is and

isn't sin. The most embarrassing thing you've

done when you were drunk? This isn't terribly embarrassing,

I'm sorry, but I'm very bad at recognising people,

and that probably gets worse. I've tried to get you to

answer the question... That's exactly

what I'm doing, Andrew. A flavour of the campaign for some

of the smaller parties. We have seen a tweet from Diane Abbott touched by

the messages of support, still standing. Will rejoin the fray soon.

Vote Labour. Of course, other parties are available.

At the Daily Politics we're greeting it with a mix of

child-like excitement and world-weary exhaustion.

Well someone who never tires of the political

treadmill is our Ellie, here's her guide to how

By 9:55, you need to be ready to go depending on how you spend election.

That is when the BBC programmes stop. When the polls close at ten,

we get the exit poll. The first result, usually Sunderland, will

race in by 10:45, but it will be quiet until 1am, when we should have

around a dozen results. They should give us a good idea if the exit poll

is right or not. It's also when some of the results

will come in for the Labour held marginals. If the Conservatives win

these, it could be an indication that Theresa May is on course to

pull in a substantial majority. From 2am onwards, results from Scotland

come in. At any party staged a comeback against the assembly? We

will also start to see the first Conservative held marginals around

then, too. If the Conservatives can't hold onto these, kid it could

be a sign they are losing their majority.

Around 3am, we should be in full swing, results coming in at quite a

pace. By 5am, we should find out whether Paul Nuttall has been

successful in his bid to become a Ukip MP. And by 6am, whether the

Greens's Caroline Lucas has held the seat. It could be a long night.

Now of course, there's only one place to watch

election night unfold, and that's on BBC One

from the moment the polls close at 10 o'clock.

Emily Maitlis is at the BBC's Election Centre.

Another big build up to the exit poll tomorrow night. Absolutely

right. I will give you a guided tour of the studio to start. Down below,

David Dimbleby will be at the main table, and you can see some of our

commentators, let's call them, that's the big screen where you will

see the exit poll come up bang on 10pm. We have been playing around

with predictions and scenarios in the rehearsals. This is my touch

screen. That is the place to be on the night. I will bring you every

was old, trying to work out from the exit poll the kind of forecasts and

seats that might be changing hands. Down here, I don't know if you can

get down here, but it is a plain green area that magically becomes

Downing Street, the House of Commons, the walk to power and all

the other things that Jeremy Vine does with his virtual reality set.

At the moment, it is a gentle buzz of activity. It will be absolutely

alive and kicking come 6pm tomorrow evening when all the desks you can

see will be full. This is our bank of psephology 's calculating and

recalibrating the exit poll, updating the results we get in as we

get them. It looks very exciting. You look like you are on the bridge

of the starship enterprise. On the fridge? On the bridge. We have

locked that for the next 12 hours. Thanks very much. Good luck on the

night. Thanks, Andrew. You will be in your constituency, TV

appearances? I will do TV and rush back to my constituency. And you are

in Oxfordshire? Yeah. Thanks to all our guests, especially

Ed Vaizey and David Lammy. There is no Daily Politics tomorrow

as it's polling day. Broadcasters do nothing on election

day, it is convention and the rules as well. Polling day tomorrow.

But remember you'll be able to watch all the election results come

in from 10pm on BBC One and I'll be back on Friday on BBC One

from 7am and through the day, getting all the reaction

here in Westminster, so do join me then. Bye bye.

I've had enough... ..alternative facts.