Browse content similar to 23/02/2018. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to
the Daily Politics. | 0:00:38 | 0:00:41 | |
All sides claim victory
in the aftermath of last | 0:00:41 | 0:00:45 | |
night's Cabinet away day,
and praise is heaped on Theresa May | 0:00:45 | 0:00:48 | |
- but could there be trouble ahead
for the Prime Minister | 0:00:48 | 0:00:51 | |
as the so-called Mutineers
rock the boat again? | 0:00:51 | 0:00:54 | |
Another bus with a big number on it. | 0:00:54 | 0:00:56 | |
This time, it's Remainers on board. | 0:00:56 | 0:00:59 | |
Can they really persuade
the British people to change | 0:00:59 | 0:01:02 | |
their mind about Brexit? | 0:01:02 | 0:01:04 | |
Gay people can get married
in England, Wales and Scotland - | 0:01:04 | 0:01:07 | |
but not in Northern Ireland. | 0:01:07 | 0:01:09 | |
With the Stormont Assembly suspended
should the UK parliament | 0:01:09 | 0:01:12 | |
legislate to legalise it? | 0:01:12 | 0:01:15 | |
And Lib Dem leader Vince Cable
chooses Roy Jenkins | 0:01:15 | 0:01:17 | |
as his political hero. | 0:01:17 | 0:01:20 | |
I think he would be a very,
very sad, heartbroken man if he saw | 0:01:22 | 0:01:25 | |
what had happened today. | 0:01:25 | 0:01:28 | |
All that in the next hour,
and with me for the duration, | 0:01:34 | 0:01:37 | |
the Guardian's Heather Stewart
and the Telegraph's Tim Stanley. | 0:01:37 | 0:01:39 | |
Welcome to the programme. | 0:01:39 | 0:01:42 | |
So, Theresa May's Brexit cabinet
enjoyed a lavish dinner last night | 0:01:42 | 0:01:46 | |
of cream of sweetcorn soup
with a ham hock croquette | 0:01:46 | 0:01:50 | |
followed by Guinness short rib
of Dexter Beef with onions | 0:01:50 | 0:01:54 | |
and parsnip mash, but now
the Chequers party is over | 0:01:54 | 0:01:59 | |
and the clean-up has begun. | 0:01:59 | 0:02:00 | |
We've been told the Prime Minister
"played a blinder" and that | 0:02:00 | 0:02:03 | |
there was an outbreak
of unity...for now. | 0:02:03 | 0:02:04 | |
But just what has been agreed? | 0:02:04 | 0:02:07 | |
Some have briefed that
"divergence has won", | 0:02:07 | 0:02:10 | |
meaning Britain won't be tied to EU
regulations but instead try to trade | 0:02:10 | 0:02:13 | |
with Europe using a system
of mutually agreed rules. | 0:02:13 | 0:02:19 | |
Others have said there
was an increasing realisation | 0:02:19 | 0:02:23 | |
that there needed to be a pragmatic
Brexit with an acknowledgement | 0:02:23 | 0:02:26 | |
that the UK should stick closely
to Brussels in some areas. | 0:02:26 | 0:02:28 | |
So what now? | 0:02:28 | 0:02:30 | |
Theresa May will have
to get her whole cabinet to sign off | 0:02:30 | 0:02:33 | |
on the deal next Tuesday before
the Prime Minister makes her keynote | 0:02:33 | 0:02:36 | |
speech outlining the government's
position next Friday. | 0:02:36 | 0:02:42 | |
The fun really starts when they put
the proposals to the EU. | 0:02:42 | 0:02:45 | |
Michel Barnier has always warned
that any deal must be "less | 0:02:45 | 0:02:50 | |
favourable" than the current
arrangement and that | 0:02:50 | 0:02:51 | |
the government's plans would not be
compatible with the EU's principles. | 0:02:51 | 0:02:54 | |
There are a few coming late
to the party, Tory backbench MP | 0:02:54 | 0:02:57 | |
Anna Soubry has put down
a new amendment to the government's | 0:02:57 | 0:02:59 | |
trade bill calling for a customs
union with the EU once we leave. | 0:02:59 | 0:03:07 | |
This could potentially be very
dangerous for Mrs May as it | 0:03:09 | 0:03:12 | |
could get support from Labour
who are also poised to commit | 0:03:12 | 0:03:14 | |
themselves to membership
of "a customs union" with a speech | 0:03:14 | 0:03:17 | |
from Jeremy Corbyn
expected on Monday. | 0:03:17 | 0:03:18 | |
Let's have a listen to
what Michael Gove and Amber Rudd had | 0:03:18 | 0:03:21 | |
to say about last night's meeting. | 0:03:21 | 0:03:27 | |
A very positive meeting and we got
behind the Prime Minister and agreed | 0:03:28 | 0:03:31 | |
the basis for her speech for next
weekend and are looking forward to | 0:03:31 | 0:03:35 | |
it going ahead. The Prime Minister
will be making a speech shortly but | 0:03:35 | 0:03:38 | |
there was a very good atmosphere and
we agreed on a way forward. | 0:03:38 | 0:03:41 | |
And we're joined now from
Central Lobby by Dominic Grieve. | 0:03:41 | 0:03:47 | |
Dominic, your colleague, Anna Sue
Brie, put down a new amendment to | 0:03:47 | 0:03:51 | |
the trade bill calling for a customs
arrangement with the EU once we | 0:03:51 | 0:03:57 | |
leave -- Soubry. Theresa May said
you would be leaving the customs | 0:03:57 | 0:04:01 | |
union with the EU so why have you
signed up for it? The Prime Minister | 0:04:01 | 0:04:07 | |
is right that we will leave the
customs union on the EU because the | 0:04:07 | 0:04:10 | |
on -- one is dependent on the other.
The question arises is what is in | 0:04:10 | 0:04:15 | |
the national interest for the future
to avoid tariffs and inspection | 0:04:15 | 0:04:18 | |
regimes and enable free trade and
allow an open border between | 0:04:18 | 0:04:24 | |
ourselves and the EU and the North
and South of Northern Ireland. These | 0:04:24 | 0:04:28 | |
are important considerations. My
view has been that the national | 0:04:28 | 0:04:33 | |
interest lies in maintaining those.
If that means being in a form of | 0:04:33 | 0:04:37 | |
customs union and I don't think that
is something we ought to rule out. | 0:04:37 | 0:04:41 | |
Of course, the prime Minister
indicated she would like to try and | 0:04:41 | 0:04:45 | |
achieve this ability to have a free
flow of trade of goods by some other | 0:04:45 | 0:04:49 | |
means and I don't object to Latin
anyway, -- object to that in any | 0:04:49 | 0:04:55 | |
way, but I do have strong views
about eliminating the possibility of | 0:04:55 | 0:04:59 | |
a customs union because, at the end
of the day, the likely benefit to | 0:04:59 | 0:05:03 | |
the United Kingdom was third-party
agreements with other countries, | 0:05:03 | 0:05:07 | |
which would be much less than a
disadvantage of using -- losing the | 0:05:07 | 0:05:11 | |
free flow of trade which I think
will have an adverse impact on our | 0:05:11 | 0:05:16 | |
GDP. You differ with the Prime
Minister as to how this future | 0:05:16 | 0:05:20 | |
relationship can be achieved. What
difference will the tabled amendment | 0:05:20 | 0:05:25 | |
actually make? Just be correct. I
don't differ with her about how it | 0:05:25 | 0:05:30 | |
might be achieved. If she can
achieve it by the means she is | 0:05:30 | 0:05:33 | |
seeking, all well and good but we
should not rule out the possibility | 0:05:33 | 0:05:36 | |
of a customs union, and in order to
make sure that issue remains on the | 0:05:36 | 0:05:39 | |
that is why the amendment has been
tabled and it will mean when we come | 0:05:39 | 0:05:45 | |
to the report stage of the bill it
can be given proper consideration in | 0:05:45 | 0:05:48 | |
the light of whether the
negotiations have got some point at | 0:05:48 | 0:05:52 | |
that stage. Do you accept following
what has been reported from those | 0:05:52 | 0:05:56 | |
who attended them Chequers meeting,
the eight-hour meeting, that it was | 0:05:56 | 0:06:03 | |
relatively harmonious and by
supporting this amendment you are | 0:06:03 | 0:06:06 | |
making life difficult for your Prime
Minister? That I think is a | 0:06:06 | 0:06:10 | |
misunderstanding of the tabling of
amendments. As parliamentarians we | 0:06:10 | 0:06:16 | |
can table amendments during the
passage of a bill to make sure | 0:06:16 | 0:06:19 | |
issues are considered that we think
are of importance. What decision is | 0:06:19 | 0:06:22 | |
taken about the amendment must be
dependent on what stage and the | 0:06:22 | 0:06:26 | |
information we have asked the
progress of negotiations when it | 0:06:26 | 0:06:29 | |
comes back. The point is, you should
not exclude the possibility of | 0:06:29 | 0:06:33 | |
remaining a customs union. And that
is what we have got to make sure, | 0:06:33 | 0:06:39 | |
that we keep that issue available
for us. But you want to have Labour | 0:06:39 | 0:06:44 | |
MPs support the amendment and, in
fact, you want the Labour leadership | 0:06:44 | 0:06:48 | |
to MPs to back the amendment about
remaining in the customs union which | 0:06:48 | 0:06:52 | |
could result in defeat for your
government. I have absolutely no | 0:06:52 | 0:06:57 | |
idea whether the Labour leadership,
which actually is led by someone who | 0:06:57 | 0:07:01 | |
broadly speaking has supported
Brexit, will wish to support the | 0:07:01 | 0:07:05 | |
amendment. I have little doubt the
amendment will command support | 0:07:05 | 0:07:09 | |
across the house and it might
command support across a broad | 0:07:09 | 0:07:13 | |
swathe of the Conservative party in
parliament. But at the moment we | 0:07:13 | 0:07:17 | |
haven't come to that point. At the
moment the amendment has been tabled | 0:07:17 | 0:07:21 | |
and I think it is essential we could
keep the issue available and could | 0:07:21 | 0:07:25 | |
consider it. I have looked to the
people who signed up to the | 0:07:25 | 0:07:28 | |
amendment and there are a large
number of Labour MPs and, if you | 0:07:28 | 0:07:32 | |
listen to anything coming out the
Labour leadership's mounds in the | 0:07:32 | 0:07:36 | |
last few weeks, it looks as though
they are to confirming the position | 0:07:36 | 0:07:41 | |
which is like yours, keeping the
issue of a customs union on the | 0:07:41 | 0:07:44 | |
table. So if the government was
defeated, what would happen then? If | 0:07:44 | 0:07:49 | |
the government was defeated
eventually I would assume the | 0:07:49 | 0:07:52 | |
government would be required to seek
to negotiate keeping us in the | 0:07:52 | 0:07:56 | |
customs union, if that can be
obtained from our EU partners. | 0:07:56 | 0:08:01 | |
Excuse me. Those are things that one
has to keep in mind, of course. But | 0:08:01 | 0:08:10 | |
I don't think it would be the end of
the government at all. There's no | 0:08:10 | 0:08:13 | |
reason why it should be. If you
clear your throat for a moment, | 0:08:13 | 0:08:18 | |
Heather Stewart, let's ask about
Labour, because Jeremy Corbyn will | 0:08:18 | 0:08:21 | |
make this speech on Monday. Do you
think it will be the point at which | 0:08:21 | 0:08:26 | |
Jeremy Corbyn says we will back the
idea of Britain remaining in a | 0:08:26 | 0:08:32 | |
customs union with the European
Union. There has certainly been a | 0:08:32 | 0:08:35 | |
shift in Labour policy and I
coordinated one as we saw different | 0:08:35 | 0:08:41 | |
members from wings of the party,
Owen Smith, Emily Thornberry and | 0:08:41 | 0:08:45 | |
others saying the policy was
evolving. John McDonnell had | 0:08:45 | 0:08:49 | |
interesting words as well. It's
always dangerous to predict what | 0:08:49 | 0:08:55 | |
Jeremy Corbyn will say in his
speeches. I remember a speech in the | 0:08:55 | 0:08:59 | |
referendum campaign which did not
turn out as expected. But there has | 0:08:59 | 0:09:03 | |
clearly been a shift and busily the
Labour leadership is extremely keen | 0:09:03 | 0:09:08 | |
on inflicting defeat in the House of
Commons to the government if it can. | 0:09:08 | 0:09:11 | |
So how dangerous is it for Theresa
May? Dominic grieve says it will | 0:09:11 | 0:09:15 | |
mean we just have to keep the idea
of a customs union on the table but | 0:09:15 | 0:09:20 | |
it will mean more than that for
Theresa May? Listening then he | 0:09:20 | 0:09:24 | |
seemed to leave the door open of a
Canada plus model free-trade model | 0:09:24 | 0:09:29 | |
which delivers the benefits of a
customs union without being in one | 0:09:29 | 0:09:32 | |
and I'm sure he will want to respond
to that and I don't want to put | 0:09:32 | 0:09:35 | |
words in his mouth but I see that as
the compromise that might happen. We | 0:09:35 | 0:09:39 | |
essentially have three separate
positions. That of the government, | 0:09:39 | 0:09:43 | |
which hasn't really changed, where
they say they want divergences where | 0:09:43 | 0:09:46 | |
they will copy what the EU does but
not be in the EU. You have the Tory | 0:09:46 | 0:09:51 | |
rebel and Labour position which
hasn't really changed of saying we | 0:09:51 | 0:09:54 | |
should be in a customs union. One
position that might have changed is | 0:09:54 | 0:09:59 | |
that some members of the EU 27 are
in favour of a Canada plus plus plus | 0:09:59 | 0:10:03 | |
style deal and don't want to see
things dragged out by the | 0:10:03 | 0:10:07 | |
negotiators of the commission. So in
many ways things have not changed | 0:10:07 | 0:10:12 | |
but I don't see this disagreement
between the rebels on the government | 0:10:12 | 0:10:16 | |
is completely shutting the door on
some sort of agreement. What would | 0:10:16 | 0:10:19 | |
happen if the government was
defeated on the amendment? It would | 0:10:19 | 0:10:23 | |
be very embarrassing and undermine
the government's efforts are | 0:10:23 | 0:10:27 | |
providing a unified front and might
embolden those in the Cabinet such | 0:10:27 | 0:10:31 | |
as Philip Hammond who take a more
remain point of view which I suspect | 0:10:31 | 0:10:35 | |
is what on the rebels minds. But I
expect they are reasonable and some | 0:10:35 | 0:10:40 | |
accommodation can be made. But you
to inflict an embarrassing defeat on | 0:10:40 | 0:10:46 | |
your own government? I never want to
defeat my own government and I | 0:10:46 | 0:10:49 | |
always seek to try and avoid doing
that and after all, I don't have are | 0:10:49 | 0:10:55 | |
serial rebel reputation even though
I voted once against the government | 0:10:55 | 0:10:59 | |
on a national issue. You said it was
in the national interest to keep it | 0:10:59 | 0:11:02 | |
on the table so will you put your
principles ahead of the party? We | 0:11:02 | 0:11:06 | |
are in danger of running ahead of
ourselves on this. I've explained | 0:11:06 | 0:11:10 | |
what it is that the amendment is
designed to achieve and the point | 0:11:10 | 0:11:14 | |
was very well made that it might be
that some sort of Canada plus plus | 0:11:14 | 0:11:19 | |
plus arrangement can be arrived at
but I am interested in the reality | 0:11:19 | 0:11:24 | |
of free trade without tariffs and
inspection regimes. That is what I | 0:11:24 | 0:11:28 | |
want to see and I'm perfectly
prepared to consider different | 0:11:28 | 0:11:31 | |
options but I'm not prepared to
exclude options in order to achieve | 0:11:31 | 0:11:34 | |
that. What do you say to Jacob Rees
Mogg who said remaining in a customs | 0:11:34 | 0:11:39 | |
union with the EU means we would be
common to internal tariff meaning | 0:11:39 | 0:11:46 | |
higher prices for clothing and
footwear and it would be more | 0:11:46 | 0:11:49 | |
expensive for the British public?
Does the amendment risk lowering the | 0:11:49 | 0:11:52 | |
standard of living for people in
this country? I completely disagree | 0:11:52 | 0:11:56 | |
with Jacob's analysis. The evidence
is overwhelming that if we come out | 0:11:56 | 0:12:00 | |
of a customs union we have no
satisfactory arrangements and have a | 0:12:00 | 0:12:04 | |
tariff and inspection regime meaning
the cost of living will rise and it | 0:12:04 | 0:12:07 | |
is the poorest and most vulnerable
who will suffer the most. Tim | 0:12:07 | 0:12:11 | |
Stanley, what you say to that? You
could argue that the Brexiteers are | 0:12:11 | 0:12:17 | |
breeding trouble for the government
by saying that stopping the | 0:12:17 | 0:12:21 | |
migration of people during the
transition. Everyone is bargaining | 0:12:21 | 0:12:25 | |
now. That is all I can really say.
It's up to the Prime Minister to | 0:12:25 | 0:12:30 | |
navigate this. One reason she
appears so tight-lipped and | 0:12:30 | 0:12:33 | |
difficult to read is because she is
juggling so many balls. You could | 0:12:33 | 0:12:36 | |
argue it's her fault because she did
not get the majority she wanted to | 0:12:36 | 0:12:39 | |
make it possible that this week I
feel more sympathetic because we are | 0:12:39 | 0:12:43 | |
starting to see the demands of other
people in the parliament and she has | 0:12:43 | 0:12:46 | |
to keep them all happy whilst also
maintaining a clear path for the | 0:12:46 | 0:12:52 | |
government. Dominic Grieve, thank
you. | 0:12:52 | 0:12:55 | |
Now the leaders of the other 27 EU
countries are gathering | 0:12:55 | 0:12:59 | |
today to amongst other things firm
up their position on Brexit. | 0:12:59 | 0:13:02 | |
Our Brussels reporter,
Adam Fleming is there. | 0:13:02 | 0:13:05 | |
Add, tell me what they are
discussing. The way I've been | 0:13:05 | 0:13:10 | |
putting it this morning is that
Brexit is not the theme tune for the | 0:13:10 | 0:13:14 | |
summit but it is the background
music so they will talk about the | 0:13:14 | 0:13:19 | |
future composition of the European
Parliament after 2019 because there | 0:13:19 | 0:13:23 | |
will no longer be 73 British MEPs
and they will talk about the | 0:13:23 | 0:13:27 | |
successor to the process by which
Jean-Claude Juncker was made prime | 0:13:27 | 0:13:31 | |
minister of the EU Commission and
his term of office is up there. Then | 0:13:31 | 0:13:37 | |
they have the really thorny issue of
the MSF left, the multi-financial | 0:13:37 | 0:13:43 | |
framework, which is the seven-year
budget cycle which starts in 2021 | 0:13:43 | 0:13:49 | |
and will have a Brexit sized hole in
it of potentially 15 billion euros | 0:13:49 | 0:13:54 | |
per year. Lots of difficult
conversations between net | 0:13:54 | 0:13:58 | |
contributors who pay in and don't
necessarily want to paying more, and | 0:13:58 | 0:14:01 | |
their recipients who don't
necessarily want to receive less, | 0:14:01 | 0:14:05 | |
while there is increasing demands on
the budget when it comes to security | 0:14:05 | 0:14:09 | |
and migration. That discussion will
go on for months and months. In | 0:14:09 | 0:14:13 | |
terms Brexit, the only bit formerly
on the agenda today is Donald Tusk | 0:14:13 | 0:14:18 | |
will update the 27 leaders on the
process he will go through to write | 0:14:18 | 0:14:22 | |
their next set of guidelines for the
next phase of talks about trade and | 0:14:22 | 0:14:26 | |
the future relationship, which the
27 will sign off in this building | 0:14:26 | 0:14:30 | |
when they next meet on the 23rd of
March. The EU seems to have rejected | 0:14:30 | 0:14:36 | |
a key British proposal for the
future relationship after Brexit, | 0:14:36 | 0:14:41 | |
the so-called baskets where you can
have a variance in relation post | 0:14:41 | 0:14:45 | |
Brexit. This is according to
documents published by the European | 0:14:45 | 0:14:48 | |
commission. In your opinion, are the
EU 27 still singing from the same | 0:14:48 | 0:14:54 | |
hymn sheet? Is there any sign of
divergences? | 0:14:54 | 0:15:00 | |
Yeah, that's the word they all use
all the time. Very fashionable. That | 0:15:00 | 0:15:06 | |
document yesterday which emerged was
a presentation that was given by the | 0:15:06 | 0:15:10 | |
European Commission Brexit
negotiators to diplomats from the | 0:15:10 | 0:15:13 | |
27, a couple of weeks ago, which
talked about these three Baskett | 0:15:13 | 0:15:17 | |
approach the Prime Minister has as a
basis for the discussion about the | 0:15:17 | 0:15:21 | |
future relationship and they said it
was incompatible with the European | 0:15:21 | 0:15:24 | |
Council's guidelines for Brexit and
they pointed out that it meant that | 0:15:24 | 0:15:28 | |
the UK was cherry picking, taking
what bits of the single market it | 0:15:28 | 0:15:32 | |
liked which threatened the integrity
of the single market, it threatened | 0:15:32 | 0:15:36 | |
the autonomy of the EU's
decision-making because it would | 0:15:36 | 0:15:39 | |
mean the UK on the outside would be
too involved on decision is | 0:15:39 | 0:15:42 | |
happening on the inside, there would
have to be a role for the European | 0:15:42 | 0:15:46 | |
Court of Justice in the UK were
still going to rely on concepts in | 0:15:46 | 0:15:50 | |
EU law, and also said what about
Norway, because they are in the | 0:15:50 | 0:15:53 | |
European economic Eire, might get
annoyed by the UK getting the sort | 0:15:53 | 0:15:57 | |
of deal? They were very firm. That's
against the guidelines drawn up by | 0:15:57 | 0:16:01 | |
the 27 in April last year. But I'm
detecting subtle little hints where | 0:16:01 | 0:16:09 | |
things are changing force of this is
going to sound incredibly geeky so | 0:16:09 | 0:16:12 | |
bear with me. The Swedish board of
trade, which is the trade agency | 0:16:12 | 0:16:15 | |
which advises the Swedish
Government, has just written 260 | 0:16:15 | 0:16:19 | |
pages of Brexit reports about the
economy, it's all in Swedish but | 0:16:19 | 0:16:24 | |
they've released a four page summary
in English which says a one size | 0:16:24 | 0:16:28 | |
fits all model for the UK and Sweden
is not appropriate for the Swedish | 0:16:28 | 0:16:32 | |
economy and they say for some
sectors of the Swedish economy it | 0:16:32 | 0:16:35 | |
would be best of the UK remained in
EU. For some sectors of the Swedish | 0:16:35 | 0:16:40 | |
economy it would be better if there
was a deep and special trade | 0:16:40 | 0:16:43 | |
relationship like the one the EU has
with Ukraine, but some part of the | 0:16:43 | 0:16:47 | |
switch economy it would be like
Switzerland where they have loads of | 0:16:47 | 0:16:50 | |
bilateral deals in different sectors
and they say a plane free trade | 0:16:50 | 0:16:55 | |
agreement like the EU has with
Canada and Japan, would not | 0:16:55 | 0:16:58 | |
eliminate barriers to trade
effectively and would not be good | 0:16:58 | 0:17:03 | |
enough. To my ears, does that mean
they are criticising Michel | 0:17:03 | 0:17:06 | |
Barnier's Canada is the best you are
going to get approach or criticising | 0:17:06 | 0:17:13 | |
the UK's guidelines saying we have
to delete some of those red lines in | 0:17:13 | 0:17:17 | |
those areas or is it both or neither
and is that what we're going to be | 0:17:17 | 0:17:21 | |
looking at, more clues about what
member states think about this | 0:17:21 | 0:17:26 | |
future relationship? Adam, thank
goodness there was that translation | 0:17:26 | 0:17:28 | |
from the Swedish board of trade
because it would have left you in a | 0:17:28 | 0:17:32 | |
pickle. | 0:17:32 | 0:17:32 | |
We're joined now from
Rome by the Italian | 0:17:32 | 0:17:34 | |
MEP Roberto Gualtieri,
who is on the European Parliament's | 0:17:34 | 0:17:36 | |
Brexit steering group. | 0:17:36 | 0:17:40 | |
Welcome to the programme. I don't
know how much of the last discussion | 0:17:40 | 0:17:43 | |
you just heard, but we are already
hearing that Brussels is rejecting | 0:17:43 | 0:17:47 | |
Theresa May's approach of managed
divergences also why? Actually this | 0:17:47 | 0:17:53 | |
is not true. We are respectfully
waiting for understanding of what | 0:17:53 | 0:18:00 | |
exactly is the UK proposal. We
understand there will be a speech | 0:18:00 | 0:18:04 | |
from the Prime Minister next week.
And then we will define our | 0:18:04 | 0:18:09 | |
guidelines. We have only said that
we want a relationship with the | 0:18:09 | 0:18:14 | |
United Kingdom which is as close as
possible, but, of course, any kind | 0:18:14 | 0:18:18 | |
of relationship has its own balance
and rights of obligation, single | 0:18:18 | 0:18:24 | |
market has other rules, custom
union, other rules, and if there are | 0:18:24 | 0:18:27 | |
red lines which prevent those
solutions, then we enter into a | 0:18:27 | 0:18:32 | |
category of a free-trade agreement
which of course have to be | 0:18:32 | 0:18:35 | |
negotiated. You say you don't know
what Britain once and therefore | 0:18:35 | 0:18:38 | |
nothing has been rejected, but
that's not the case, is it, Roberto, | 0:18:38 | 0:18:43 | |
because the Prime Minister has put
forward a proposal of three baskets | 0:18:43 | 0:18:46 | |
where you would have some mutual
recognition in some areas, some | 0:18:46 | 0:18:50 | |
close alignment and some divergences
and we know now from the commission | 0:18:50 | 0:18:54 | |
that they rejected that, so I say
again, why has that been rejected | 0:18:54 | 0:18:58 | |
out of hand? Honestly, I don't
understand what we're talking about. | 0:18:58 | 0:19:03 | |
We have not received a formal
position. We haven't heard the | 0:19:03 | 0:19:08 | |
speech. Nothing hinting of these
baskets, which is not a totally | 0:19:08 | 0:19:14 | |
clear concept. We know in a
free-trade agreement, if the UK is | 0:19:14 | 0:19:18 | |
not in the customs union, if it's
not in a single market, of course we | 0:19:18 | 0:19:22 | |
cannot have a totally free market,
we have to have an agreement and the | 0:19:22 | 0:19:29 | |
level of market access will depend
on a number of factors. We can have | 0:19:29 | 0:19:32 | |
a very good level of market taxes
for goods and services, the more | 0:19:32 | 0:19:38 | |
difficult, of course, as the Swedish
document just quoted saying, in a | 0:19:38 | 0:19:43 | |
free-trade agreement, if it's
impossible, if you want frictionless | 0:19:43 | 0:19:48 | |
trade, you need to stay in the
single market. These other basics. | 0:19:48 | 0:19:53 | |
Of course we have to enter into
negotiations and we need a clear | 0:19:53 | 0:19:58 | |
position from the UK and of course
we will our guidelines to Parliament | 0:19:58 | 0:20:02 | |
in March. You do accept there's a
number of countries in fact that do | 0:20:02 | 0:20:08 | |
have special deals with the European
Union, it's not strictly a case of | 0:20:08 | 0:20:13 | |
remaining in the single market to
get that frictionless trade or | 0:20:13 | 0:20:17 | |
remaining in the customs union, so
there is the complete alignment with | 0:20:17 | 0:20:23 | |
regulations. For example, Turkey, it
isn't bound by freedom of movement | 0:20:23 | 0:20:27 | |
and has a customs union with the EU
but only on goods and not services. | 0:20:27 | 0:20:31 | |
That's a bespoke deal so why can't
Britain have a bespoke deal? This is | 0:20:31 | 0:20:35 | |
exactly a good example. Turkey is a
member of a different union, which | 0:20:35 | 0:20:43 | |
has advantages, in terms of tariff.
Of course Turkey is bound to have | 0:20:43 | 0:20:48 | |
the same tariff outside so this
means there's some equalisation of | 0:20:48 | 0:20:55 | |
the policy. With less friction in
the trade of goods, of course, there | 0:20:55 | 0:21:01 | |
are still some checks to be done
because they are not in the single | 0:21:01 | 0:21:05 | |
market. Yes but button plaited
broadly with the approach of three | 0:21:05 | 0:21:11 | |
baskets? Norway also has a special
deal, it's part of the single | 0:21:11 | 0:21:15 | |
market, but not the customs union.
It a separate rules. For industries | 0:21:15 | 0:21:19 | |
like farm produce and fish. Britain
could have a similar approach, | 0:21:19 | 0:21:25 | |
mixing perhaps the two? That's
exactly the reason why we need to | 0:21:25 | 0:21:30 | |
wait for what would be the proposal
because something similar to Turkey | 0:21:30 | 0:21:35 | |
is different from a free-trade
agreement because it implies some | 0:21:35 | 0:21:42 | |
limitation in the external tariff
which Canada does not have. So far | 0:21:42 | 0:21:47 | |
we have heard that the UK was
excluding this option. If they move | 0:21:47 | 0:21:53 | |
in this direction it would be a
positive thing of course, but it has | 0:21:53 | 0:21:55 | |
not been said. Yes, but we keep
hearing from the EU, Michel Barnier, | 0:21:55 | 0:22:01 | |
Britain won't be allowed to cherry
pick but examples of Norway, Turkey | 0:22:01 | 0:22:05 | |
and Switzerland, their bilateral
agreements with the EU to some | 0:22:05 | 0:22:11 | |
extent that is cherry picking. This
has been rejected out of hand for | 0:22:11 | 0:22:15 | |
Britain. Why? I insist I agree with
your description of how we reject, | 0:22:15 | 0:22:26 | |
but it's not true. That they have
rejected it. We have some | 0:22:26 | 0:22:31 | |
obligations with the UK if they
choose to be banned by a customs | 0:22:31 | 0:22:36 | |
union, and it's a positive fact we
not rejecting it all. Switzerland is | 0:22:36 | 0:22:41 | |
a bit different, but I would like to
remind you, Switzerland has the | 0:22:41 | 0:22:45 | |
freedom of movement. I understand
the UK does not want this. Is the EU | 0:22:45 | 0:22:52 | |
27 still unified? Absolutely. We
have been unified and we will be | 0:22:52 | 0:23:01 | |
united because we have a very
reasonable position. We want a | 0:23:01 | 0:23:07 | |
relationship as close as possible
with the United Kingdom. Of course | 0:23:07 | 0:23:10 | |
each kind of relationship has
balances, rights and obligations | 0:23:10 | 0:23:15 | |
under accept this principle, so we
are open to engaging in a decision | 0:23:15 | 0:23:21 | |
as far as the UK, we have a clear
proposal, and we will discuss it. It | 0:23:21 | 0:23:27 | |
would also be very useful of course
to move forward the discussion on | 0:23:27 | 0:23:33 | |
transition because that an element
of uncertainty. We are close, not | 0:23:33 | 0:23:36 | |
yet there, but I hope a number of
problems will be positively solved | 0:23:36 | 0:23:42 | |
and a very reasonable proposal of
the union with some limitation of | 0:23:42 | 0:23:47 | |
course, would be the basis of an
agreement so we can move into the | 0:23:47 | 0:23:51 | |
last phase which is crucial of
course. Roberto, stay with us why | 0:23:51 | 0:23:55 | |
bring in my other guest to the
discussion. What do you make of what | 0:23:55 | 0:24:01 | |
Roberto is saying? Despite some
other language that has come from | 0:24:01 | 0:24:04 | |
the European Union, about not
wanting Britain to cherry pick, does | 0:24:04 | 0:24:07 | |
he have a point it is still not
clear exactly what Britain is after? | 0:24:07 | 0:24:12 | |
That is very true but it's all so
from what he said, not entirely | 0:24:12 | 0:24:16 | |
clear, what Europe will eventually
agree to. I'm loving the discussion | 0:24:16 | 0:24:19 | |
this morning because we're seeing
some light at the end of the tunnel. | 0:24:19 | 0:24:23 | |
At the beginning of the negotiation
process everything tended to feel | 0:24:23 | 0:24:25 | |
like it was on the side of the EU
because they were trying to get as | 0:24:25 | 0:24:29 | |
much money out of us, that was their
focus and they got it. With is gone, | 0:24:29 | 0:24:36 | |
they are down 9 billion, but now
we're moving on, while the | 0:24:36 | 0:24:38 | |
commission may well be saying one
thing, Michel Barnier could be | 0:24:38 | 0:24:42 | |
saying it's not possible, you can't
cherry pick, which technically | 0:24:42 | 0:24:46 | |
speaking is true from the EU's point
of view, it's interesting to hear | 0:24:46 | 0:24:50 | |
the individual representatives of
different countries are thinking, | 0:24:50 | 0:24:53 | |
hang on, we sell to Britain's
markets, why can't we do a deal | 0:24:53 | 0:24:58 | |
because it's in everyone's benefit?
What do you think about the idea of | 0:24:58 | 0:25:02 | |
Britain's managed divergences which
I'm sure can mean something to | 0:25:02 | 0:25:06 | |
everyone, in terms of sort of
semantics and linguistic gymnastics, | 0:25:06 | 0:25:10 | |
do you think Britain will find much
more difficult when is presented to | 0:25:10 | 0:25:15 | |
the EU? I do, and I think it's a
better way of dealing with the | 0:25:15 | 0:25:19 | |
divergences within the Cabinet
itself, rather than thinking about | 0:25:19 | 0:25:22 | |
the negotiations although it seems
to me they're there was a chink of | 0:25:22 | 0:25:25 | |
light in the sense of when you
raised Turkey the answer was, yes, | 0:25:25 | 0:25:29 | |
we have a customs union in
particular areas so that does seem | 0:25:29 | 0:25:34 | |
up the idea of different
arrangements in different sectors, | 0:25:34 | 0:25:38 | |
which Theresa May many months ago
used to say repeatedly the customs | 0:25:38 | 0:25:40 | |
union is not a binary question to
which the commission used to say | 0:25:40 | 0:25:46 | |
absolutely yes, it is. Perhaps it is
a bit more complex than that and | 0:25:46 | 0:25:50 | |
that is why David Davis and his
ministers are shuttling around like | 0:25:50 | 0:25:54 | |
mad visiting several European
capitals every week because they | 0:25:54 | 0:25:57 | |
very much hope to open up ultimate
of a chink between Brussels and the | 0:25:57 | 0:26:02 | |
EU 27. On the implementation period,
Roberto mentioned, do you think it | 0:26:02 | 0:26:08 | |
is now becoming clear Theresa May
will have to give away on her | 0:26:08 | 0:26:11 | |
proposal to change the rights for EU
citizens coming during the two-year | 0:26:11 | 0:26:15 | |
period? It is implicit in the
transition deal, it doesn't feel it | 0:26:15 | 0:26:23 | |
has been nailed down a. And the
Times of course was reporting today | 0:26:23 | 0:26:26 | |
that exactly what would happen. I
think what Britain wants to maintain | 0:26:26 | 0:26:29 | |
at this stage is as much Flex it is
possible because it has got to get | 0:26:29 | 0:26:34 | |
its House in order but also doesn't
want to put a time negotiations when | 0:26:34 | 0:26:39 | |
it comes to negotiating a future
traders have regardless of what the | 0:26:39 | 0:26:42 | |
Government may publicly say about
rights, Ireland, any of this stuff, | 0:26:42 | 0:26:47 | |
my suspicion is the transition will
be a movable feast. Thank you very | 0:26:47 | 0:26:51 | |
much for joining us today. | 0:26:51 | 0:26:54 | |
Now it's time for our daily quiz. | 0:26:54 | 0:26:56 | |
Earlier this week, David Davis
was at pains to tell people | 0:26:56 | 0:26:58 | |
post-Brexit Britain wouldn't be
a "Mad Max-style dystopian fantasy". | 0:26:58 | 0:27:06 | |
Disappointing a view! | 0:27:06 | 0:27:07 | |
Disappointing a view! | 0:27:07 | 0:27:08 | |
Well, yesterday, his
cabinet colleague Andrea | 0:27:08 | 0:27:10 | |
Leadsom backed him up, | 0:27:10 | 0:27:11 | |
and said life outside the EU
would be much more | 0:27:11 | 0:27:13 | |
like another film. | 0:27:13 | 0:27:14 | |
But which one? | 0:27:14 | 0:27:15 | |
Was it a) 28 Days Later? | 0:27:15 | 0:27:17 | |
b) Love Actually? | 0:27:17 | 0:27:18 | |
c) Four Weddings and a Funeral? | 0:27:18 | 0:27:19 | |
or d) The Wicker Man? | 0:27:19 | 0:27:21 | |
The mind boggles! | 0:27:21 | 0:27:22 | |
The mind boggles! | 0:27:22 | 0:27:23 | |
At the end of the show,
Tim and Heather will give | 0:27:23 | 0:27:26 | |
us the correct answer. | 0:27:26 | 0:27:27 | |
Slightly surreal question. | 0:27:27 | 0:27:28 | |
Slightly surreal question. | 0:27:28 | 0:27:29 | |
Now, remember that Leave Campaign
bus which carried the claim | 0:27:29 | 0:27:32 | |
that we send £350 million a week
to the EU? | 0:27:32 | 0:27:33 | |
Money which could be
spent on the NHS? | 0:27:33 | 0:27:37 | |
Well, Remainers now have their own
bus touring the country with a big | 0:27:37 | 0:27:40 | |
number on the side of it. | 0:27:40 | 0:27:43 | |
It's in Liverpool today and onboard
is campaigner Phil Richmond. | 0:27:43 | 0:27:51 | |
Haven't we had enough of buses with
big figures on the side of them? I | 0:27:51 | 0:28:00 | |
don't know. I mean, we had a bus
which said 350 William pounds was | 0:28:00 | 0:28:03 | |
going to be saved by leaving the EU,
and then the government's own | 0:28:03 | 0:28:09 | |
figures showed in fact we are going
to be 2000 million pounds a week | 0:28:09 | 0:28:13 | |
poorer and we understand why they
try to give it under wraps and why | 0:28:13 | 0:28:17 | |
MPs are only allowed to go and look
at these numbers in a special room | 0:28:17 | 0:28:22 | |
with an invigilator if they leave
their mobile phones at the door. | 0:28:22 | 0:28:27 | |
Behind you we have three Jacob Rees
Moggs behind you which could be | 0:28:27 | 0:28:30 | |
worrying from your point of view.
They are obviously not very keen on | 0:28:30 | 0:28:35 | |
your bus but we will leave them
there in the background. Just to | 0:28:35 | 0:28:38 | |
remind viewers of his position.
Isn't this all a bit late, two years | 0:28:38 | 0:28:45 | |
too late in fact? Shouldn't you have
done this during the referendum | 0:28:45 | 0:28:48 | |
campaign? No, absolutely not. It
couldn't be a better time. We have | 0:28:48 | 0:28:55 | |
had a phoney war for 18 months and
finally the Government is having to | 0:28:55 | 0:29:01 | |
admit there are hard trade-offs in
Brexit and it's going to come at a | 0:29:01 | 0:29:04 | |
price. And it's not going to make is
better off, we are going to be | 0:29:04 | 0:29:11 | |
poorer, and we know how much poorer
we are going to be. We are at a | 0:29:11 | 0:29:14 | |
point when people are asking is it
worth it? We now concede what the | 0:29:14 | 0:29:18 | |
price of Brexit is going to be and
what our campaign is doing is saying | 0:29:18 | 0:29:21 | |
is it worth it? And more and more
people are asking is it worth it? | 0:29:21 | 0:29:26 | |
Why and how have you calculate that
figure on the bus which is being | 0:29:26 | 0:29:30 | |
scored slightly by the trio of Jacob
Rees Moggs? OK, it's a pity you | 0:29:30 | 0:29:38 | |
can't see the figure, because it's
very simple. If you have 5% loss of | 0:29:38 | 0:29:45 | |
GDP growth, and you have a current
GDP of macro-2,000,000,000,000, 5% | 0:29:45 | 0:29:51 | |
of that is 100 billion, and that is
2000 million. It's as simple as | 0:29:51 | 0:29:58 | |
that. There's no calculations
needed. Aren't you reigniting | 0:29:58 | 0:30:05 | |
project fear? | 0:30:05 | 0:30:10 | |
project fear? No. Project fear is
about frightening people with things | 0:30:10 | 0:30:18 | |
that might happen. This is simply
telling people what the Government's | 0:30:18 | 0:30:22 | |
thinking is. This is what the best
experts the Government has are | 0:30:22 | 0:30:26 | |
telling them is going to happen with
Brexit. | 0:30:26 | 0:30:32 | |
Apart from the three behind you, how
have is the turnout been to see the | 0:30:33 | 0:30:38 | |
bus? The turnout is well and we've
been well-received everywhere. You | 0:30:38 | 0:30:43 | |
can't see, they are on the other
side of the bus. But because of the | 0:30:43 | 0:30:47 | |
noise of those I'm finding hard to
hear you. Thanks for joining us and | 0:30:47 | 0:30:52 | |
maybe you should have a conversation
with the three guys behind you | 0:30:52 | 0:30:55 | |
wearing the Jacob Rees Mogg masks.
As soon as I am of their I am going | 0:30:55 | 0:31:00 | |
to ask them do you really think it
is worth it? But thanks for having | 0:31:00 | 0:31:05 | |
me on. | 0:31:05 | 0:31:06 | |
Well, earlier this week a pro-Brexit
group of economists came up | 0:31:06 | 0:31:09 | |
with their own assessement
of the economic impact | 0:31:09 | 0:31:11 | |
of leaving the EU. | 0:31:11 | 0:31:12 | |
Julian Jessop contributed
to that report. | 0:31:12 | 0:31:13 | |
Vicky Pryce is a former
government economist. | 0:31:13 | 0:31:20 | |
We were all glued to the Jacob Rees
Mogg people in the last film. Your | 0:31:20 | 0:31:27 | |
model assumes mass elimination of
tariffs. As any government minister | 0:31:27 | 0:31:32 | |
or political party indicated they
would unilaterally eliminate | 0:31:32 | 0:31:35 | |
tariffs? Not as such but that's a
reasonable approximation of where | 0:31:35 | 0:31:39 | |
the government wants to end up, a
situation where we have a | 0:31:39 | 0:31:42 | |
comprehensive free-trade deal with
the rest of the European Union | 0:31:42 | 0:31:45 | |
covering both goods and services and
significantly lower trade barriers | 0:31:45 | 0:31:49 | |
with the rest of the world. It's
true the government is not hoping to | 0:31:49 | 0:31:53 | |
completely eliminate the barriers
and to make those assumptions we | 0:31:53 | 0:31:58 | |
have another assumption where we
only make roughly half of them and | 0:31:58 | 0:32:00 | |
that still delivers a positive
number but whichever way you look at | 0:32:00 | 0:32:03 | |
it you end up in positive numbers
rather than negatives. But you don't | 0:32:03 | 0:32:09 | |
think anyone has put the scenario
forward? Has any other country | 0:32:09 | 0:32:13 | |
indicated they would be interested
in removing tariffs and nontariff | 0:32:13 | 0:32:17 | |
barriers to the extent you'd like to
see? We have the model what the | 0:32:17 | 0:32:21 | |
government is aiming to achieve. You
can have a separate argument about | 0:32:21 | 0:32:24 | |
whether this scenario is likely to
be accepted by the rest of the | 0:32:24 | 0:32:28 | |
European Union or world, but the
problem with the Treasury analysis | 0:32:28 | 0:32:33 | |
is that it models three scenarios,
none of which are government policy | 0:32:33 | 0:32:36 | |
and particular the one that features
on the bus is the one thing that the | 0:32:36 | 0:32:40 | |
government has ruled out. So there
has to be a range of scenarios | 0:32:40 | 0:32:44 | |
rather than prejudging before the
negotiations have started? What do | 0:32:44 | 0:32:47 | |
you say to that? It interesting
they've come up with a positive | 0:32:47 | 0:32:52 | |
figure in the medium to long term.
What is the medium to long term? | 0:32:52 | 0:32:58 | |
2030, that is the period you are
looking at. But it could take longer | 0:32:58 | 0:33:03 | |
for any positives to come through.
The interesting thing is they are | 0:33:03 | 0:33:07 | |
not saying much about the
short-term, which is likely to be | 0:33:07 | 0:33:11 | |
disruptive for those who put it
together. | 0:33:11 | 0:33:21 | |
together. That will be difficult.
Any trade agreement we have with | 0:33:21 | 0:33:26 | |
anyone else is unlikely to cover
services and quite a lot of | 0:33:26 | 0:33:30 | |
countries that would like to talk to
us about this, like India, would | 0:33:30 | 0:33:32 | |
like and return to be to be able to
come and work here and that is | 0:33:32 | 0:33:36 | |
something the UK is not going to
allow. Do you sign up broadly to the | 0:33:36 | 0:33:40 | |
Treasury analysis that they used to
say that growth would grow less | 0:33:40 | 0:33:47 | |
quickly in the future? What I have
signed up to is that if we move with | 0:33:47 | 0:33:53 | |
restraint to our major trading
partner because 45% of our services | 0:33:53 | 0:33:57 | |
of business to them, if you make
that less frictionless and you | 0:33:57 | 0:34:02 | |
reduce the ability to sell to those
countries the way we did before it | 0:34:02 | 0:34:06 | |
will increase costs and reduce
growth, and that in itself is a good | 0:34:06 | 0:34:11 | |
starting point. Anything you do to
reduce the impact you may have, | 0:34:11 | 0:34:16 | |
anything that allows you to stay as
close as you are to where you are at | 0:34:16 | 0:34:20 | |
present will, of course mean, you
are not doing as badly as you did | 0:34:20 | 0:34:24 | |
otherwise. Do you agree you are
talking about the medium to long | 0:34:24 | 0:34:28 | |
term, and if we are talking about 15
years of slower growth or a smaller | 0:34:28 | 0:34:32 | |
economy that that is something that
is going to impact negatively on the | 0:34:32 | 0:34:35 | |
British public? As far as the
short-term the Treasury made a | 0:34:35 | 0:34:39 | |
report two years ago that suggested
a vote to leave would prompt an | 0:34:39 | 0:34:43 | |
immediate recession so prompt --
predicting on short-term is pretty | 0:34:43 | 0:34:48 | |
good. What is it the short-term this
time? It depends on a couple of | 0:34:48 | 0:34:55 | |
things, such as transitional
arrangements and what sort of | 0:34:55 | 0:34:58 | |
adjustment mechanisms are put in
place. To protect agriculture, if we | 0:34:58 | 0:35:01 | |
remove those subsidies or
manufacturing sectors. And looking | 0:35:01 | 0:35:08 | |
at the longer term we can expect a
big positive. What about the cost to | 0:35:08 | 0:35:15 | |
consumers Brexit, there has always
been the two different positions | 0:35:15 | 0:35:21 | |
with Jacob Rees Mogg saying if we do
not have a clean or pragmatic | 0:35:21 | 0:35:24 | |
Brexit, the cost of -- for consumers
will go up. One of the benefits of | 0:35:24 | 0:35:31 | |
being in this huge regional
free-trade area is that prices are | 0:35:31 | 0:35:34 | |
kept low and now we have inflation
reappearing because of overall we | 0:35:34 | 0:35:41 | |
had a period of low inflation we
have no tariffs and trade barriers | 0:35:41 | 0:35:47 | |
are practically nonexistent which
means there are no costs to industry | 0:35:47 | 0:35:52 | |
and the benefit is that it is forced
firms to take advantage of economies | 0:35:52 | 0:35:58 | |
of scale to take advantage of the
fact that you can move things easily | 0:35:58 | 0:36:01 | |
from one country to another and take
advantage of the open skies and | 0:36:01 | 0:36:06 | |
airline costs coming down. The
consumer has been the main | 0:36:06 | 0:36:09 | |
beneficiary of being there. On the
other side, and that was the point | 0:36:09 | 0:36:14 | |
you are making... The common
external tariff has meant in the | 0:36:14 | 0:36:16 | |
mind of Jacob Rees Mogg that closing
and some food is more expensive. It | 0:36:16 | 0:36:22 | |
is absolutely true there are tariffs
against various countries for those | 0:36:22 | 0:36:25 | |
products that keep some price is
high but that is compensated by the | 0:36:25 | 0:36:29 | |
low prices we pay for other things
and there is no expectation we will | 0:36:29 | 0:36:34 | |
be reducing those tariffs to zero or
considerably good as that would | 0:36:34 | 0:36:39 | |
eliminate our agriculture sector and
eliminate the manufacturing sector, | 0:36:39 | 0:36:43 | |
so the consumer would suffer because
of lower growth and higher | 0:36:43 | 0:36:47 | |
unemployment. Do you accept the
compensation outweighs the model | 0:36:47 | 0:36:50 | |
that has been outlined by Jacob Rees
Mogg or do you agree with him | 0:36:50 | 0:36:53 | |
completely? On this matter I am with
Jacob. The key point is that the | 0:36:53 | 0:36:59 | |
things being modelled are in the
hands of the government so when you | 0:36:59 | 0:37:02 | |
get a big negative it's because you
assume in the absence of a deal the | 0:37:02 | 0:37:07 | |
British government would impose
tariffs on imports from the European | 0:37:07 | 0:37:10 | |
Union. In practice it could maintain
a level playing field under the | 0:37:10 | 0:37:15 | |
rules of the World Trade
Organisation by lowering tariffs on | 0:37:15 | 0:37:17 | |
trade, which would be a clear policy
-- positive. The winners outweigh | 0:37:17 | 0:37:22 | |
the losers and it's possible to
compensate the losers and be better | 0:37:22 | 0:37:26 | |
off. Let's have a look at the idea
of compensation. If we go back to | 0:37:26 | 0:37:30 | |
the Treasury analysis, for a
free-trade deal with America to make | 0:37:30 | 0:37:33 | |
up for lost trade with the EU, those
civil service estimates and | 0:37:33 | 0:37:38 | |
economists will not just be wrong,
they will have to be wrong by a | 0:37:38 | 0:37:42 | |
factor of 40. For the estimated 0.2%
growth from the US trade deal to | 0:37:42 | 0:37:48 | |
make up for the lost 8% in trade
from the EU. Do you accept that? | 0:37:48 | 0:37:53 | |
Both those numbers fail the
common-sense test. Exports to the EU | 0:37:53 | 0:37:57 | |
are only 12% of GDP and somehow the
hit would be 8% even with a small | 0:37:57 | 0:38:03 | |
increase... But we are talking about
wrong by a factor of 40. Due | 0:38:03 | 0:38:08 | |
accepted to large measure to be
wrong by? If you look at the past | 0:38:08 | 0:38:14 | |
record of forecasting by the
Treasury, it's possible to get that | 0:38:14 | 0:38:17 | |
wrong. Treasury forecasting has not
got a good track record and it is | 0:38:17 | 0:38:22 | |
true that economic Armageddon was
predicted in the immediate aftermath | 0:38:22 | 0:38:25 | |
of that referendum vote and it has
not been realised. Firstly, Treasury | 0:38:25 | 0:38:30 | |
forecasting are exactly not been
bad. Many times they've been | 0:38:30 | 0:38:34 | |
considerably better than the
independent forecasters and we have | 0:38:34 | 0:38:37 | |
not left the EU yet, Brexit has not
happened and there was a huge | 0:38:37 | 0:38:43 | |
increase of liquidity into the
system by the Bank of England and | 0:38:43 | 0:38:46 | |
low interest rates and special help
for loans and enterprises for | 0:38:46 | 0:38:51 | |
consumers. They've all benefited
from that and that is white there is | 0:38:51 | 0:38:54 | |
the fall in the pound. What is going
on right now is where is the rest of | 0:38:54 | 0:38:59 | |
the world is growing fast, we are
lowing -- growing at the lowest rate | 0:38:59 | 0:39:04 | |
of the G-7. You claim that border
costs would be zero. Is there any | 0:39:04 | 0:39:10 | |
border in the cost -- in the world
where the costs zero except the | 0:39:10 | 0:39:15 | |
borders between the countries of
single market? That is a modelling | 0:39:15 | 0:39:19 | |
assumption. Belied the Treasury one.
It is an assumption. It is more | 0:39:19 | 0:39:25 | |
reasonable than the Treasury
assumption because over time border | 0:39:25 | 0:39:29 | |
costs are falling through
technological progress and its | 0:39:29 | 0:39:31 | |
increasingly easy to move goods
across borders without having to | 0:39:31 | 0:39:35 | |
face large costs and we see that not
just in the UK, but worldwide. In | 0:39:35 | 0:39:40 | |
contrast the Treasury forecast a big
increase in border costs and a | 0:39:40 | 0:39:45 | |
knock-on on the amount of trade we
do. As it happens, if you add a | 0:39:45 | 0:39:49 | |
small back into the modelling for
border costs you would still produce | 0:39:49 | 0:39:53 | |
higher costs, but I think our
analysis is more accurate than the | 0:39:53 | 0:39:59 | |
Treasury's. In terms of the effect
on voters, the economy was not the | 0:39:59 | 0:40:03 | |
main issue for many people who voted
to leave. These discussions,, | 0:40:03 | 0:40:09 | |
important as they are, will they
have an impact, including the amount | 0:40:09 | 0:40:12 | |
of money being printed on this bus
saying it will cost 2000 million, | 0:40:12 | 0:40:17 | |
actually affect what people think? I
doubt they will in the short-term. | 0:40:17 | 0:40:20 | |
The problem with the arguments made
by the Treasury at the time of the | 0:40:20 | 0:40:24 | |
referendum campaign was that people
did not believe the numbers. I sat | 0:40:24 | 0:40:27 | |
in on a focus group, £4300 a year to
be worse off than they did not | 0:40:27 | 0:40:34 | |
believe it and did not understand
how it related to their real life. | 0:40:34 | 0:40:39 | |
Unlike 350 million going to the NHS.
That seems simpler because we know | 0:40:39 | 0:40:43 | |
we make a direct financial
contribution. I think people will be | 0:40:43 | 0:40:48 | |
sceptical about the economist
forecast and the fact we didn't drop | 0:40:48 | 0:40:52 | |
into recession of the voted to leave
will emphasise the general voter | 0:40:52 | 0:40:55 | |
suspicions about whether they can
trust the numbers, which seems to be | 0:40:55 | 0:41:01 | |
spuriously precise always. One of
the problems is that neither side, | 0:41:01 | 0:41:04 | |
certainly on the extremes, seems to
be keen to give away in any sense to | 0:41:04 | 0:41:08 | |
the other argument. Is there really
a view that there will be no | 0:41:08 | 0:41:14 | |
economic downside to Brexit? I've
not encountered anyone, privately or | 0:41:14 | 0:41:19 | |
publicly, who has said that, in the
short term. The Brexit argument, the | 0:41:19 | 0:41:24 | |
pro-Brexit argument is the first of
all the forecasts have been called | 0:41:24 | 0:41:27 | |
into question by the lack of
severity of the impact of the result | 0:41:27 | 0:41:32 | |
because we thought it would be much
worse than it has been and Britain | 0:41:32 | 0:41:35 | |
has fared fairly well. The second
argument is that if you leave the EU | 0:41:35 | 0:41:40 | |
and positively embrace global trade,
and this leave you to sit on the | 0:41:40 | 0:41:45 | |
margins of Europe and begged to be
allowed back in, that won't do much | 0:41:45 | 0:41:48 | |
for growth but if you positively
leave and trade more with East Asia, | 0:41:48 | 0:41:52 | |
America, that is actually going to
create a growth which can make up | 0:41:52 | 0:41:57 | |
for the loss with Europe. The other
thing mentioned is technological | 0:41:57 | 0:42:00 | |
change and why it is difficult to
make medium and long-term forecast | 0:42:00 | 0:42:04 | |
is you cannot predict things like
the Internet or artificial | 0:42:04 | 0:42:09 | |
intelligence which will dramatically
change the kinds of markets we | 0:42:09 | 0:42:12 | |
operate in in ten or 20 years. We
have to end it there, but thank you | 0:42:12 | 0:42:15 | |
very much. | 0:42:15 | 0:42:17 | |
Now, deep divisions
in the Labour Party. | 0:42:17 | 0:42:19 | |
A national debate about
Britain's place in Europe. | 0:42:19 | 0:42:21 | |
Sounds familiar? | 0:42:21 | 0:42:22 | |
Well, they are the same issues that
shaped the political career of a big | 0:42:22 | 0:42:25 | |
figure of a previous political era,
Roy Jenkins. | 0:42:25 | 0:42:27 | |
And he's the man Liberal Democrat
Leader, Vince Cable, | 0:42:27 | 0:42:29 | |
has chosen as his political Hero. | 0:42:29 | 0:42:31 | |
Here's Elizabeth Glinka. | 0:42:31 | 0:42:39 | |
Vince Cable, who is
your political hero? | 0:42:42 | 0:42:46 | |
Well I've chosen Roy Jenkins,
who was one of the great figures | 0:42:46 | 0:42:49 | |
in the Liberal and Social Democratic
tradition in British politics. | 0:42:49 | 0:42:55 | |
A great reforming Home Secretary. | 0:42:55 | 0:42:56 | |
A much-admired Chancellor,
a great European. | 0:42:56 | 0:43:04 | |
And somebody whose values and life,
in many ways, I have followed. | 0:43:05 | 0:43:07 | |
Roy Jenkins was born
in 1920 in the mining | 0:43:07 | 0:43:10 | |
valleys of South Wales. | 0:43:10 | 0:43:12 | |
A grammar school boy
who went on to Oxford, | 0:43:12 | 0:43:15 | |
he was immersed in politics
from an early age, following in his | 0:43:15 | 0:43:21 | |
father's footsteps and becoming
a Labour MP in 1948. | 0:43:21 | 0:43:24 | |
He was a hugely reforming
Home Secretary of the 1960s | 0:43:24 | 0:43:27 | |
at a point when you were a young
man, a student, just | 0:43:27 | 0:43:30 | |
beginning your working life. | 0:43:30 | 0:43:31 | |
What did that mean to you? | 0:43:31 | 0:43:32 | |
This was the era of Mary Whitehouse
who had this attempt to restore | 0:43:32 | 0:43:35 | |
old-fashioned values. | 0:43:35 | 0:43:38 | |
It was the dirtiest programme that
I have seen for a very long time. | 0:43:38 | 0:43:41 | |
There was this enormous mood,
particularly amongst young people, | 0:43:41 | 0:43:46 | |
to sweep away all the rather
old-fashioned values that seemed | 0:43:46 | 0:43:48 | |
to exist at that time. | 0:43:48 | 0:43:54 | |
There was censorship
on books and the theatre, | 0:43:54 | 0:43:57 | |
divorce laws, abortion laws,
rules governing homosexuality. | 0:43:57 | 0:44:00 | |
They all seemed rooted
in a bygone era. | 0:44:00 | 0:44:03 | |
And he, more than anybody else,
lifted the barriers. | 0:44:03 | 0:44:06 | |
It changed the face of the country. | 0:44:06 | 0:44:09 | |
It modernised it in a way
that we would now regard | 0:44:09 | 0:44:12 | |
as perfectly normal today. | 0:44:12 | 0:44:16 | |
Always of the centre,
his experiences as an intelligence | 0:44:16 | 0:44:18 | |
officer during World War II made him
a passionate European. | 0:44:18 | 0:44:23 | |
He would defy his party and campaign
for membership in 1975. | 0:44:23 | 0:44:26 | |
Leaving UK politics to become
president of the European | 0:44:26 | 0:44:28 | |
Commission two years later. | 0:44:28 | 0:44:31 | |
People of his generation were people
who'd fought in the war, | 0:44:32 | 0:44:35 | |
who saw the rebuilding of Europe
as something that was a political | 0:44:35 | 0:44:41 | |
objective to end conflict in Europe,
I think he would be a very, | 0:44:41 | 0:44:45 | |
very sad, heartbroken man if he saw
what had happened today. | 0:44:45 | 0:44:49 | |
One of the things that comes
across when you're reading | 0:44:49 | 0:44:52 | |
about him, looking at his speeches,
is sort of how urbane he was. | 0:44:52 | 0:44:56 | |
Is that something
that appealed to you? | 0:44:56 | 0:44:59 | |
Well, no, our lifestyle
is a little bit different. | 0:44:59 | 0:45:03 | |
I'm a little bit more
puritanical, more frugal. | 0:45:03 | 0:45:06 | |
He liked the big long lunch,
which became rather celebrated, | 0:45:06 | 0:45:10 | |
a great lover of high-class wines. | 0:45:10 | 0:45:13 | |
I've never really got into that. | 0:45:13 | 0:45:16 | |
He didn't come across
as particularly tribal. | 0:45:16 | 0:45:18 | |
And I think perhaps
that is the way people might | 0:45:18 | 0:45:21 | |
think about you as well. | 0:45:21 | 0:45:23 | |
Yes, and I did respect that in him. | 0:45:23 | 0:45:26 | |
He had good relationships right
across the spectrum. | 0:45:26 | 0:45:30 | |
I think those were the days when MPs
used to write each other private | 0:45:30 | 0:45:33 | |
letters of congratulation
and condolence and there was a kind | 0:45:33 | 0:45:37 | |
of civilised environment. | 0:45:37 | 0:45:40 | |
But returning from Europe,
those relationships could not | 0:45:40 | 0:45:43 | |
prevent the growing alienation
he felt as the Labour Party | 0:45:43 | 0:45:45 | |
swung to the left. | 0:45:45 | 0:45:47 | |
In 1981, he and others
from the right of the party, | 0:45:47 | 0:45:50 | |
known as the Gang of four,
would leave to set up the SDP. | 0:45:50 | 0:45:54 | |
We offer, not only a new party,
although it is that, | 0:45:54 | 0:45:59 | |
but a new approach to politics. | 0:45:59 | 0:46:02 | |
A certain Vince Cable
was amongst the converts. | 0:46:02 | 0:46:05 | |
I'm just coming around
the area meeting everybody. | 0:46:05 | 0:46:07 | |
They would later merge
with the Liberals. | 0:46:07 | 0:46:09 | |
What was most difficult I think
for him and also for any of us | 0:46:09 | 0:46:14 | |
was the break with many of the other
so-called moderates | 0:46:14 | 0:46:17 | |
in the Labour Party. | 0:46:17 | 0:46:20 | |
One of his closest associates
was Anthony Crossland, | 0:46:20 | 0:46:22 | |
who had actually been his lover
when they were at | 0:46:22 | 0:46:25 | |
university together. | 0:46:25 | 0:46:29 | |
And Roy Hattersley and
people of that kind. | 0:46:29 | 0:46:31 | |
He's still reviled by some
people in the Labour Party | 0:46:31 | 0:46:34 | |
for splitting away with the SDP. | 0:46:34 | 0:46:37 | |
Did he make mistakes? | 0:46:37 | 0:46:40 | |
Well, historians will argue
for many, many years as to | 0:46:40 | 0:46:42 | |
whether the breakaway was justified. | 0:46:42 | 0:46:47 | |
I think actually the Labour Party
modernisation which started under | 0:46:47 | 0:46:51 | |
Neil Kinnock, through John Smith
to Tony Blair, probably wouldn't | 0:46:51 | 0:46:56 | |
have happened if it hadn't been
for the SDP breakaway and I think | 0:46:56 | 0:47:01 | |
British politics is much the better
for having had the Lib Dems, | 0:47:01 | 0:47:05 | |
of which he was one of the parents. | 0:47:05 | 0:47:08 | |
Of course you would say that. | 0:47:08 | 0:47:11 | |
In fact, in his later years,
sitting as a life peer, | 0:47:11 | 0:47:14 | |
he would advise Tony Blair
as the new Labour project took form. | 0:47:14 | 0:47:18 | |
As Chancellor of Oxford
he would continue to write | 0:47:18 | 0:47:21 | |
the acclaimed biographies
which he produced | 0:47:21 | 0:47:22 | |
throughout his life. | 0:47:22 | 0:47:25 | |
Married to wife Jennifer
for nearly 58 years, | 0:47:25 | 0:47:27 | |
he died in 2003 at the age of 82. | 0:47:27 | 0:47:32 | |
If you were going to pay tribute
to Roy Jenkins, what would you say? | 0:47:32 | 0:47:36 | |
I think he was one
of the great statesman | 0:47:36 | 0:47:39 | |
of the post-war era in Britain. | 0:47:39 | 0:47:42 | |
You can read his
legacy in his books. | 0:47:42 | 0:47:44 | |
I think he fell short of what he
ultimately wanted to achieve. | 0:47:44 | 0:47:47 | |
He never became Prime Minister. | 0:47:47 | 0:47:49 | |
His vision of the SDP
Liberal Alliance never lead | 0:47:49 | 0:47:53 | |
to Government as he'd hoped. | 0:47:53 | 0:47:55 | |
But he was a genuinely great figure
in post-war British politics. | 0:47:55 | 0:48:03 | |
Vince Cable talking about his
political hero, Roy Jenkins there. | 0:48:07 | 0:48:09 | |
And you can see the other films
in our Political Hero | 0:48:09 | 0:48:12 | |
series on our website. | 0:48:12 | 0:48:18 | |
Do you agree he was one of the great
statesmen of British politics even | 0:48:18 | 0:48:23 | |
though he didn't become Prime
Minister? Yes, she was and is | 0:48:23 | 0:48:28 | |
amended for those social reforms he
helped to champion. It's fascinating | 0:48:28 | 0:48:31 | |
to look at that and think about
someone really agonising about | 0:48:31 | 0:48:36 | |
whether they should remain in their
party, but their party before their | 0:48:36 | 0:48:41 | |
country, which they could see to be
deeply important, and I think there | 0:48:41 | 0:48:45 | |
are MPs in both parties actually who
fear that they may have to make that | 0:48:45 | 0:48:50 | |
decision at some point over the next
couple of years. Perhaps we can all | 0:48:50 | 0:48:54 | |
muddle through it but it's
fascinating to remember what goes | 0:48:54 | 0:48:57 | |
around comes around. In that sense,
it is amazing to look back at the | 0:48:57 | 0:49:03 | |
error of Roy Jenkins on the fact
Europe was at the heart of | 0:49:03 | 0:49:05 | |
everything that he believed in.
That's what led him to break away | 0:49:05 | 0:49:10 | |
and help set up the SDP. Lessons
learned for today? In that case, | 0:49:10 | 0:49:16 | |
they won but then society was rather
different, more deferential and when | 0:49:16 | 0:49:22 | |
the establishment backed staying in
the EEC, which was the issue, the | 0:49:22 | 0:49:26 | |
public listened. People said reddish
liberalism died in the 1920s but it | 0:49:26 | 0:49:31 | |
didn't, and Roy Jenkins is probably
the most significant Labour Liberal | 0:49:31 | 0:49:35 | |
of the 20th century and his reforms
in the 60s changed society. In the | 0:49:35 | 0:49:40 | |
1980s the experiment with the SDP
didn't quite transform politics but | 0:49:40 | 0:49:44 | |
many Labour Party people would say
cut Margaret Thatcher in power. Here | 0:49:44 | 0:49:50 | |
is proof that where there is why,
there was a way. How cruel. | 0:49:50 | 0:49:57 | |
Same-sex marriage has been
a legal reality in England, | 0:49:57 | 0:49:59 | |
Wales and Scotland since 2014. | 0:49:59 | 0:50:01 | |
And gay marriage is already a right
in the Isle of Man and is legal | 0:50:01 | 0:50:04 | |
or being legalised in Channel
Islands. | 0:50:04 | 0:50:07 | |
But there is one part of the UK
where you still cannot marry | 0:50:07 | 0:50:10 | |
a same-sex partner -
Northern Ireland. | 0:50:10 | 0:50:14 | |
It also means that couples who wed
in Great Britain will not | 0:50:14 | 0:50:16 | |
have their marriage recognised
in Northern Ireland. | 0:50:16 | 0:50:20 | |
Any legislation to enable same-sex
marriage is a matter | 0:50:20 | 0:50:22 | |
for the Assembly at Stormont
where the Democratic Unionist | 0:50:22 | 0:50:24 | |
Party have blocked it. | 0:50:24 | 0:50:29 | |
But with the collapse
of talks to get the devolved | 0:50:29 | 0:50:31 | |
administration up and running,
there are now calls | 0:50:31 | 0:50:33 | |
for Westminster to legislate. | 0:50:33 | 0:50:38 | |
In a written reply to the Labour MP,
Conor McGinn, Northern Ireland | 0:50:38 | 0:50:41 | |
Secretary Karen Bradley said
the issue, "Should be addressed | 0:50:41 | 0:50:43 | |
in the NI Assembly, but the power
of the Westminster Parliament | 0:50:43 | 0:50:46 | |
to legislate remains unaffected. | 0:50:46 | 0:50:47 | |
If this issue were to be
raised in Westminster, | 0:50:47 | 0:50:49 | |
the Government's policy is to allow
a free vote on matters of conscience | 0:50:49 | 0:50:52 | |
such as equal marriage." | 0:50:52 | 0:50:55 | |
And her shadow, Labour's
Owen Smith stated - | 0:50:55 | 0:50:58 | |
"In the absence of a Stormont Bill,
would she consider legislating | 0:50:58 | 0:51:00 | |
similarly to extend equal marriage
rights to Northern Ireland? | 0:51:00 | 0:51:02 | |
We believe that she should,
and we will support | 0:51:02 | 0:51:05 | |
her if she does so." | 0:51:05 | 0:51:12 | |
Conor McGinn is in our self and
newsroom and joins us now. You've | 0:51:13 | 0:51:19 | |
had confirmation from the Northern
Ireland Secretary that Westminster | 0:51:19 | 0:51:21 | |
could legislate and the Tories
wouldn't win the vote. Tell their | 0:51:21 | 0:51:25 | |
MPs what to do, but that doesn't
mean same-sex marriage Northern | 0:51:25 | 0:51:29 | |
Ireland will happen any time soon,
does it? And taking forward a bill | 0:51:29 | 0:51:33 | |
at the end of March which can
decisively test the mood of the | 0:51:33 | 0:51:37 | |
House of Commons if anyone objects
to extending equal marriage Northern | 0:51:37 | 0:51:42 | |
Ireland, they can oppose it and put
it to a vote. I'm very confident we | 0:51:42 | 0:51:46 | |
would win any vote and it's then for
the Government to legislate but let | 0:51:46 | 0:51:49 | |
me be very clear, my preference
would be for a fully functioning | 0:51:49 | 0:51:52 | |
power-sharing executive and assembly
to do this but people can't wait for | 0:51:52 | 0:51:55 | |
their basic rights any longer than
that's why I've taken the decision, | 0:51:55 | 0:51:59 | |
along with my colleagues in the
Labour Party and others, to put this | 0:51:59 | 0:52:03 | |
to Westminster. What do you think
about that? If there isn't a | 0:52:03 | 0:52:09 | |
power-sharing devolved
administration functioning people | 0:52:09 | 0:52:10 | |
shouldn't be forced to wait to find
out if they can practice same-sex | 0:52:10 | 0:52:13 | |
marriage? There is a contradiction
in argument for that but of course | 0:52:13 | 0:52:19 | |
in the assembly there is something
called a petition of concern, a | 0:52:19 | 0:52:23 | |
device created to ensure one idea,
even if supported by the majority of | 0:52:23 | 0:52:30 | |
the assembly can't be imposed upon
another community. Last time was a | 0:52:30 | 0:52:34 | |
vote on same-sex marriage the
assembly voted to introduce it but | 0:52:34 | 0:52:39 | |
because of this petition concern,
because it wasn't a supermajority, | 0:52:39 | 0:52:44 | |
it couldn't be imposed and if you
look the breakdown of the voting, | 0:52:44 | 0:52:47 | |
essentially the Unionist community,
the elected representatives, are | 0:52:47 | 0:52:52 | |
opposed to this. So imagine what it
could do to the Northern Ireland | 0:52:52 | 0:52:57 | |
settlement if in Westminster someone
impose a something which is of | 0:52:57 | 0:53:01 | |
enormous sectarian controversy upon
Northern Ireland. Conor McGinn, you | 0:53:01 | 0:53:05 | |
are shaking your head. That is not
about people being Unionist, being | 0:53:05 | 0:53:11 | |
gay, married, but people being
equal. If my constituents at the | 0:53:11 | 0:53:14 | |
same sex and love their partner can
get married in Saint Helens, if they | 0:53:14 | 0:53:19 | |
can in Cardiff and Edinburgh and
Dublin, they should be able to do so | 0:53:19 | 0:53:22 | |
in Belfast as well. That there are
other issues to consider. One could | 0:53:22 | 0:53:28 | |
say the teaching of the Irish line
which in Northern Ireland is an | 0:53:28 | 0:53:31 | |
equality issue and why shouldn't it
be taught in state schools but you | 0:53:31 | 0:53:35 | |
wouldn't want Westminster imposing
that. It's very obvious that would | 0:53:35 | 0:53:38 | |
undermine the settlement in Northern
Ireland. Why therefore do it with | 0:53:38 | 0:53:41 | |
same-sex marriage? The whole thing
was stitched together in order to | 0:53:41 | 0:53:46 | |
prevent exactly this kind of thing
and I fear that there bill, I | 0:53:46 | 0:53:50 | |
understand that attention behind it,
it could be a provocative act -- | 0:53:50 | 0:53:55 | |
intention. I think there's a
majority for equal marriage in the | 0:53:55 | 0:53:59 | |
Northern Ireland assembly. Every
opinion poll taken has shown the | 0:53:59 | 0:54:02 | |
public is in favour of equal
marriage and I think this is the | 0:54:02 | 0:54:04 | |
right thing to do. The people of
Northern Ireland should not be | 0:54:04 | 0:54:08 | |
discriminated against. It's 50 years
on from the Northern Ireland Civil | 0:54:08 | 0:54:12 | |
Rights Association taking to the
streets to demand equal rights and | 0:54:12 | 0:54:15 | |
we talked about Roy Jenkins earlier
in this programme, it's 50th on from | 0:54:15 | 0:54:19 | |
homosexuality being to come alive,
if not all right for people in | 0:54:19 | 0:54:23 | |
Northern Ireland, gay people, to be
discriminate against. What do you | 0:54:23 | 0:54:26 | |
say about the concern raised by Tim
Stanley it could antagonise | 0:54:26 | 0:54:30 | |
sectarian relations if the polls
suggested the Unionist community | 0:54:30 | 0:54:35 | |
wasn't as in favour of same-sex
marriage in Northern Ireland and it | 0:54:35 | 0:54:41 | |
would be imposed upon them from
Westminster? I don't think that's | 0:54:41 | 0:54:44 | |
wholly accurate but the DUP can't
have it both ways. They've called | 0:54:44 | 0:54:48 | |
for direct rule, they want Northern
Ireland to remain part of the United | 0:54:48 | 0:54:53 | |
Kingdom for that they believe
Westminster has an important role to | 0:54:53 | 0:54:55 | |
play and so they therefore can't
fully complain if Westminster acts | 0:54:55 | 0:54:59 | |
decisively on this issue of equal
marriage and they have the | 0:54:59 | 0:55:02 | |
opportunity to oppose it when my
bill comes forward at the end of | 0:55:02 | 0:55:07 | |
March. Political House of Commons
and at the House of Commons decided | 0:55:07 | 0:55:09 | |
in favour like the Northern Ireland
assembly has already decided, the | 0:55:09 | 0:55:12 | |
Government has a duty to act and
they should bring forward | 0:55:12 | 0:55:16 | |
legislation. Right, forgave me for
being cynical, Conor McGinn, but | 0:55:16 | 0:55:20 | |
this is not just about the principle
about politics. | 0:55:20 | 0:55:27 | |
about politics. The Prime Minister
is dependent on the DUP for her | 0:55:27 | 0:55:31 | |
Parliamentary majority and that
party is opposed to same-sex | 0:55:31 | 0:55:37 | |
marriage, so obviously this could
make it very difficult for the | 0:55:37 | 0:55:40 | |
relationship between the Government
and the DUP. That's a matter for | 0:55:40 | 0:55:44 | |
Theresa May. The concern is that
whether it in terms of negotiations | 0:55:44 | 0:55:49 | |
at Stormont around the overall
settlement in future of Northern | 0:55:49 | 0:55:53 | |
Ireland and re-establishing the
institutions or equal marriage, she | 0:55:53 | 0:55:56 | |
and her Government are compromised
either relationship with the DUP and | 0:55:56 | 0:56:02 | |
their reliance on them. But the
Secretary of State for Northern | 0:56:02 | 0:56:04 | |
Ireland has made clear that will be
a free vote and I'm very confident | 0:56:04 | 0:56:07 | |
there will be an overwhelming
majority in the House of Commons | 0:56:07 | 0:56:10 | |
that support equal marriage, so in
that sense, it's up to every MP to | 0:56:10 | 0:56:14 | |
make his or her own mind up about
whether to support this or not. What | 0:56:14 | 0:56:17 | |
is your opinion on the idea that
being imposed on Northern Ireland | 0:56:17 | 0:56:21 | |
because there's not a devolved
December that the moment? It | 0:56:21 | 0:56:24 | |
underlines the fact that a year-long
suspension in the assembly is | 0:56:24 | 0:56:30 | |
incredibly problematic in the way
the Government has failed to get a | 0:56:30 | 0:56:33 | |
grip on it. It's alarming. Although
I share some of his concerns about | 0:56:33 | 0:56:40 | |
unravelling a very delicate mess, I
do think it's an anomaly and it's | 0:56:40 | 0:56:43 | |
about rights and about people mag
boss lives and we saw one the | 0:56:43 | 0:56:47 | |
legislation changed in the rest of
the UK, what a huge difference it | 0:56:47 | 0:56:52 | |
made to couples had been living
together for many years and could | 0:56:52 | 0:56:55 | |
formalise their relationships and
we're talking about people's | 0:56:55 | 0:56:58 | |
ablation ships and lives who could
formalise their relationships -- | 0:56:58 | 0:57:04 | |
relationships and lives. It's a
right issue. How problematic would | 0:57:04 | 0:57:09 | |
be for Theresa May in her
relationship with the DUP? It's | 0:57:09 | 0:57:12 | |
embarrassing, isn't it? She relies
on their votes in the Commons, and | 0:57:12 | 0:57:19 | |
some of the Liberals in her own
party, Ruth Davidson made a fuss | 0:57:19 | 0:57:23 | |
when the deal was struck about the
fact this is a party who has some | 0:57:23 | 0:57:28 | |
rather old-fashioned views, let's
say, as we would see it, so it would | 0:57:28 | 0:57:34 | |
be embarrassing for Theresa May and
she is already in a position where | 0:57:34 | 0:57:38 | |
it's hard for her to appear as
neutral broker in those talks in | 0:57:38 | 0:57:44 | |
Northern Ireland, even with issues
like this blowing up. Conor McGinn, | 0:57:44 | 0:57:50 | |
thank you very much. | 0:57:50 | 0:57:51 | |
And we did ask to speak
to a minister from the Northern | 0:57:51 | 0:57:54 | |
Ireland Office but no
one was available. | 0:57:54 | 0:57:56 | |
The Democratic Unionist Party
also turned down our | 0:57:56 | 0:57:57 | |
request for an interview. | 0:57:57 | 0:57:58 | |
Oh well, we are Billy no mates. | 0:57:58 | 0:58:00 | |
There's just time before we go
to find out the answer to our quiz. | 0:58:00 | 0:58:03 | |
The question was which film did
Andrea Leadsom say post-Brexit | 0:58:03 | 0:58:06 | |
Britain would be more like
than Mad Max? | 0:58:06 | 0:58:08 | |
Was it: A) 28 Days Later? | 0:58:08 | 0:58:09 | |
B) Love Actually? | 0:58:09 | 0:58:10 | |
C) Four Weddings and a Funeral? | 0:58:10 | 0:58:11 | |
Or D) The Wicker Man? | 0:58:11 | 0:58:13 | |
So, Tim and Heather,
what's the correct answer? | 0:58:13 | 0:58:15 | |
And the answer was Love Actually. | 0:58:15 | 0:58:16 | |
I have to say it's a film which
makes me feeling credibly nauseous. | 0:58:16 | 0:58:19 | |
It is the correct answer. We won't
show it now because we run out of | 0:58:19 | 0:58:23 | |
time. | 0:58:23 | 0:58:27 | |
That's all for today. | 0:58:27 | 0:58:28 | |
Thanks to my guests. | 0:58:28 | 0:58:30 | |
Bye bye. | 0:58:30 | 0:58:37 |