26/04/2014 Dateline London


26/04/2014

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I will be back with a full bulletin at the top of the hour.

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Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

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Russia wants to start World War Three ` according to Ukraine's prime

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minister. What is going on in Eastern Ukraine? The Palestinians

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move towards reconciliation with each other ` but not with Israel.

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And Tony Blair appears to want a coalition of the willing to take on

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militant Islam. Will he get it? My guests today are: Polly Toynbee

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of the Guardian. Abdel Bari Atwan, who is an Arab writer and

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journalist. Saul Zadka, of Arise News Television Alexander Nekrassov,

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who is a Russian journalist and former Kremlin adviser.

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A week or so after the hopeful news from Geneva that all sides want the

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Ukraine crisis solved peacefully we have had a series of flash`points on

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the ground ` a stiffening of resolve from Western powers against Russia `

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the threat of more sanctions ` more Russian troop manoeuvres ` and an

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increase of rhetoric including the idea that Russia might be pushing us

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towards World War Three. Is Russia trying to eat away at Ukraine bit by

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bit? Russia does not really need Eastern Ukraine. That would be

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expensive for Russia. The problem is that when we hear the Prime Minister

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seeing that Russia wants to start world War three, that tells me that

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the TF regime is desperate. The reason it is desperate is because it

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was expecting a lot of money from the West to come immediately and

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that is not coming. If you remember, the previous deal, Russia offered

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$15 million to Ukraine. That was on the table. Now we have Joe Biden

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coming over and saying, I brought you 50 million to fight corruption.

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But it is not really exciting. I am interested in how you are

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framing this. You're framing this in business monetary terms. Or do you

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see it as something to do with national identity? Or as people in

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the West are saying, this is subversion by Russia to try to grab

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land? You don't think it's Russia's interests to do that?

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The problem is that when this violent overthrow the regime

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happened in February, and it was a regime accepted by the European

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Union as democratically elected, we must remember that, I think a lot of

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things have changed in Ukraine in practically one day. I think that

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all those suspicions that we had for centuries there suddenly came up and

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manifested themselves. It is difficult to control the situation

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in Ukraine at the moment. I personally do not see any point or

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any hope of any diplomatic solution at the moment. When the Geneva talks

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happened, it was obvious it would not deliver anything, simply because

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the eastern part of Ukraine was not represented there. That was a key

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point. They had to have somebody representing the east. And Russia

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was supposed to represent the east and it did not work. I think we

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might see another Serie A in the eastern Ukraine. There are a lot of

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grievances there. I visited Latvia and met officials there. They were

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scared because there is a sizeable Russian minority there. It is

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completely isolated. It is separated from the whole of society. They have

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their own newspaper, their own schools, their own clubs. They do

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not mix. They are not participating in the Government. I believe the

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same thing is existing now in the east of Ukraine. If the situation

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continues, with the Russians using this as an excuse, I think we may

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see another Syria. This makes me think of another

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Balkans. The unfitting of hundreds of years of history. And people who

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have been mixed up for various reasons. A great danger. All of

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those countries surrounding Russia could see the same kinds of problems

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erupt. But what is difficult for Europe and America to understand, is

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the extent to which this is really popular in Russia. This huge

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popularity for President Putin. Usually, nationalism is something

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for the lower classes. But this is involving the educated classes. On

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the other hand, he is punching above his weight economic law. It is a

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country with the same economic power as Italy. Only sanctions can he

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take? On the other hand, is Europe really willing to turn the screw on

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sanctions? 's I spoke to an American diplomat and he said that America

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was prepared to cut off the banking system of Russia. He said that

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Europeans will have to all online because they will have a choice, to

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do business with the United States ought to do business with Russia. If

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it comes to that. It is not entirely clear to me. You

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have to remember about the energy that comes from Russia. To what

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extent will the Germans and others dare to turn off that tap? We have

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had threats from Russia, to turn off the energy supply to Kiev unless

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they pay enormous amounts of money. I think Europe is a very weak

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position. The G7 says we will have sanctions but also say we are going

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to do different things in our own way. I am not sure it will be a

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united front. I can see a direct link between what

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was happening in Syria and what is happening in Crimea. When putting

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smells wickedness... That is what was happening. Everybody could see

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that Albarn mattered not live up to his promises. Eventually, the saga

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was summed up as Syria being abandoned to its own devices. And

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that is what is happening now in Syria. This is a part of Ukraine has

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been neglected. I agree with putting that the Government was

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illegitimate. There will be elections in May...

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Of course. But it seems to me that the bullying exercise of the

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Russians are designed to create a kind of federated region of Eastern

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Ukraine. Another thing that came out when I

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was speaking to our correspondent in Eastern Ukraine, he said that you

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have no idea the resentment against the EU and NATO that many Russians

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have. And the feeling that people in the West are moving the boundaries

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and are actually under threat. Is that one of the reasons why this has

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been so popular for Vladimir Putin? The whole point of the end of the

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Cold War was an understanding that needle would not spread eastwards.

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That was not written down in stone. But it was understood.

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Unfortunately, needle started to move eastwards. That was the main

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reason why many people in Russia think that the Cold War is still

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there. `` NATO. President Obama has criticised what you put in, and

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every time he does, putting's popularity goes up!

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We will leave it there. Among the Palestinian people, the

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dislike ` even at times hatred ` between members of Hamas and Fatah

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has never been hidden. But this week a new agreement between the two

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factions is an attempt at creating a unified Palestinian voice not really

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seen since the death of Yasser Arafat. Israel's prime minister

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however says he will never engage in talks with any Government including

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Hamas. So ` where are we now? It has been said repeatedly that Israel in

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the past accused the Palestinians and now they are moving together.

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But Israel is accusing them of having him asking the Government and

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will not deal with them. `` Armas. This condition was never made

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explicit. Everybody understood that it will be a three state solution if

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Armas is excluded from these talks. `` Hamas. Israel could not live with

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the Charter of Hamas. It would not recognise previous agreements that

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had been signed with Fatah. It may be that the Israelis will say that

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it is OK if Armas is committed to the international community.

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However, I think this alliance has been born out of convenience.

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Because Armas is controlling towards the authorities. It has been broken

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in the past by Egypt. Armas lost its power base in Egypt.

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The Muslim Brotherhood. They also lost Syria. And Iran. In a

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way, how mass are in a weak position. This seems to be a

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marriage of convenience with Fatah. Do you think Armas will have to

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change? Hamas is saying to a bass that you read this Government and

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this Government is not something they are part of. It is mainly

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independent people who will be members of this Government. But

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President Mahmoud Abbas is or was attacked and hated. He went to the

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negotiating table without any implementation of his condition to

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freeze the settlement. He signed agreements that they would release

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is really prisoners and they never did. The two state solution

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collapsed completely. In the 21st century, Hamas are being asked to

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recognise and Israeli state. They say that the president does not

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represent all Palestinians. They are bringing in Gaza and going to

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negotiation. Either to choose us to choose Hamas. But he will be the

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leader of this new Government. He prevented any attacks against the

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Israelis against the West Bank. What can we do? I don't know.

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I think the rest of the world looks on this with a kind of despair.

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Yesterday, President Obama said that we cannot make further progress

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because there is no will for peace on either side. That is what we

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hear. Both sides in the end Professor to stand apart. Every

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American president comes in and says that we can fix this. The go in and

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think that they can fix this. But this seems in solvable because there

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are such an entrenched Will not to make peace on both sides. It is

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deeply dispiriting for everybody who stands outside and the rest of the

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world, which is profoundly affected by this. John Kerry, in his speech

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to the Congress, said that they have put obstacles in front of the peace

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process. On one side, missiles going into

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Israel and on the other, more settlements. It is beyond, mention

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how any country with any commitment to peace can go on creating

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settlements. That is interesting. I spoke to an

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Israeli this week and he said that the EU and the United States and

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Hamas, it is a terrorist organisation, as he said. He won't

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listen to anyone on the settlement question. There is the settlement

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issue. But also, other issues, like trying to get independence through

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the United Nations. They have released many prisoners. So it is

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not accurate what you have said. The Israelis and the Palestinians are

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willing but they are not willing to make sacrifices. America is not the

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best country to be the middleman. It is so distrusted in the Middle East.

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While with they be trusted by anyone in this particular conflict? `` why

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would they be trusted? Tony Blair could help. I do not think so. The

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point is this, America seem to be thinking if they are launching a

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peace process, both sides will suddenly find a will to find the

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solution and it never happens and nether world. When Barack Obama and

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John Kerry launched the initiative, everyone was asking why, when you

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have Libya out of control, you have Syria, this and that and it wrong,

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why did they do that this time? They knew nothing would come out of it.

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Do you agree with that? There was great scepticism about why this was

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being launched. Some people said it was bought domestic considerations.

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It has been launched by an obsessive commitment of John Kerry who took it

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almost as a personal crusade. At one point, it looked as if they were

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going somewhere. They were on the verge of deciding, or discussing,

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the issue of borders with Palestinians. I think this alliance

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will not last long because the level of hatred between the two factions

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is so big that, eventually, everything will collapse. We can see

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already cracks in the Alliance and by her mass who keeps saying we will

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not recognise Israel anyway. Do you think that is true? Why the

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division? He wanted to pursue the peace process. He was hoping it

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would end with independent Palestine. He has tried to do this

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for the last 20 years and without success. Her mass was saying, you

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would not reach any agreement with the Israelis. `` Hamas. The Israelis

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block everything. 2 million people do not have electricity or medicine.

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It is inhuman. Why does the international community stay silent

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about the torture of 2 million people? Israel is saying no. Her

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mass should not make a reconciliation with a bass. ``

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Hamas. They are not human. They are not treated as humans. Why are they

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imposing sanctions on them? Now that Hamas is so much we can because it

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no longer has the alliance with the Muslim brotherhood, they are

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suffering even worse hardship. Isn't this the time when Israel should

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say, right, uniting the two sides, the Palestinian science, this is a

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time we could move forward? `` the Palestinian sides. Does it really

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mean never? Of course not. You may be right in principle if Hamas does

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change its course. The people of Gaza are fed up with Hamas policy

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based on the issue of the armed struggle which is taking us nowhere.

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It is probably to do as much with the Palestinians in Gaza and

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Israel. Because of Israeli sanctions. Israel are imposing

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sanctions on them. In Britain this week, Muslim parents have been asked

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by the police to talk to their children about the dangers of going

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to Syria, even to offer humanitarian assistance. They may be sucked in to

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the most extreme Islamist competence. It comes as Tony Blair

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suggests the West should cooperate with Russia and others in common

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cause against the threat. What do you make of the intervention by Tony

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Blair? Utterly bizarre. He is the last person who should be making an

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intervention. If you think about his failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

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have helped to Stoke so much Islamist extremism... Something that

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the wheel United services Institute said very publicly this week. There

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was no question about that. That was from a very interesting source.

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Absolutely. It is accepted this has been a huge star of the Islamist

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cause. I suppose Tony Blair himself, an interesting character,

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as reached such a point where he can never, ever admit this huge mistake

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he has made. It is impossible. When you started these disastrous wars,

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you cannot say, sorry, I think I got that wrong. In a sense, like a bad

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gambler, you have to double the States. He is raising the stakes

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again. He wants a world war against Islamist. It makes no sense. On the

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one hand he says, we should have gone in and bought in Syria. We

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should have gone in there. There is an Islamist led rebellion going on.

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On the other hand he is saying that Russia should come in and help the

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anti`Islamic cause. He does not seem to understand the complexity of the

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world. We know from these programmes, all world relationships

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are very complicated. Tony Blair likes to see everything in black and

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white. Many years ago as the Cold War wound down, a retired Russian

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general in Moscow said, there will come a time when people in NATO and

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emotion will have to take on extreme Islam. Does any of this chime with

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Russia or does it seem silly? During the first Chechen war, Russian

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intelligence was telling Western intelligence there were

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international element involved in the Chechen resistance. This was a

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network building already. Everybody took it without the concern they

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should. Then Al`Qaeda suddenly sprang out. The Russians knew about

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it long before it was accepted in the West as a big threat. The

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problem with Tony Blair is he may say something that makes sense but

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because he says it, nobody takes it seriously, or dislikes it at once.

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The problem is that the Islamic terrorists will have access to

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nuclear weapons and materials. Look at Ukraine! There are several

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nuclear power stations which are barely protected at the moment.

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There is Chernobyl. They will get access to these materials and do a

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dirty bomb or something. This is a serious threat at the moment. This

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is the month of Islam phobia in Britain. First we had Michael Gove

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actually launching a campaign against Muslim schools and the

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people in this country. Secondly, David Cameron saying that

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Christianity is the fate of this country and 50% of this country

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believe in it. Now he Tony Blair is saying Islamic fundamentalism is a

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threat to peace in the world. Who encouraged Islamic fundamentalism?

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It is Tony Blair, George Bush and the Americans. Tony Blair is siding

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with dictators. He is saying, even sign a deal with President Assad if

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he stays in power. What about the countries that bought against

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fundamentalism? Syria was a secular state. They are saying, no, it is

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Islam fundamentalism which is the enemy or the threat to state

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ability. `` stability. How can we believe him? Tony Blair said, the

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get Crimea and eastern Ukraine. `` forget. He also said, forget

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President Assad and let him remain in power. He brings pragmatism to a

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new level. Maybe he is not the right one to say something like that.

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Isn't that the point? President Assad is not going anywhere and

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Crimea is not going to come a partner of Ukraine any time soon. In

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terms of realities on the ground, he has got that right. I do not think

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Tony Blair is a pragmatist. He sees things in ideological terms. He has

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now decided that Islamist is a movement is the great enemy. It has

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great perils. All Western countries feel bad. They feel the potential of

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young people within their own midst who are tempted by a global movement

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that attracts them. Young teenagers who are perhaps uncertain of their

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own identities, second generation. They can be a real threat.

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Nevertheless, it is this oversimplification of Tony Blair,

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thinking everything can be resolved. Somehow thinking he is the man to do

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it as well. That is extraordinary. This man hates Muslims. He wants a

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war against Islam. We will have to leave it there. We are back next

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week at the same time. Goodbye. Good morning. The weather is not

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looking too promising for the weekend. We will be dominated by a

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slow`moving area of low pressure. You can see this: Which is wrapped

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around the low pressure. This cloud is producing some rain. Following on

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from that, there will

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