03/05/2014 Dateline London


03/05/2014

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Cathedral to mark the occasion. I will be back at the top of the

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hour. Now on BBC News it's Date LINE LONDON.

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Hello and welcome to Dateline London. How the past bedevils the

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present ` in Ukraine its tortuous history with Russia leads to even

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more violence. And in Northern Ireland, the murder

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of a mother of ten children in 1972 casts a shadow over the continuing

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search for a lasting peace. Plus, will the European elections be

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a continent`wide opportunity for protest votes?

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My guests today are Richard Sakwa of the University of Kent, who's

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writing a book about Ukraine, Agnes Poirier of Marianne, Brian

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O'Connell, who is an Irish writer and broadcaster, and Steve Richards

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of The Independent. Ukraine first, and the violence

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continues amid the Kiev government's insistence it is cracking down on

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terrorists. In the east of the country, pro`Russian groups seize

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control of government buildings and resist Kiev's forces as best they

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can. Are we stumbling towards a much wider and potentially catastrophic

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conflict? What is your analysis of the situation? It is exceptionally

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dangerous. I think we need to be careful about the language we use

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because we are talking about pro`Russian separatists. In many

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ways, they have got a different concept of what being Ukraine means.

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There is probably Russian involvement but on its own that

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would not be enough. There is genuine anger and concern. We need

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to think about how we can broaden the consensus and include every part

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of the country into an inclusive constitutional process. Everybody

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saw the violence and some of it was pretty horrendous, but I was amazed

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by the mass of people out on the streets. That plays into your

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thoughts that there is certainly a genuine feeling of resentment at

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some of the things going on in Kiev. Absolutely. They are very much

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Ukrainian, but they have got a very different vision of Ukraine. They

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fear is that their idea is being hijacked. The provisional government

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is overwhelmingly composed of people from the West. Do you think that the

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elections later this month will help solve things or make things worse?

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At the moment it is touch and go. If the violence continues, but on the

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other hand, the candidates don't really have a solution. The leading

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candidate is an oligarch of the old mould. The old style politics of

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what is called a democracy of oligarchs which has dominated for so

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long will not be broken and that is why there is so much concern in the

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East and the South. When Richard talks about it, the more

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sophisticated analysis, it is not really borne out in a lot of

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journalistic coverage because it tends to be you are either

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pro`Russian or pro`West. It is much more, located. It is. It is not just

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that people in eastern Ukraine are pro`Russian and everybody else looks

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towards the West. If you look at the background to it, the European

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Union's terms of association that frightened Russia and said, we are

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getting closer and closer to the European Union and so on, Angela

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Merkel and Barack Obama have switched the trigger at which the

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next layer of sanctions are going to take place from invasion back to, if

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we can't hold a successful presidential election. They have

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brought that back. But what it seems to do is highlight the inability of

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the European Union or the West in general to know exactly how to deal

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with this. If you listen to Angela Merkel and Barack Obama this week,

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though one thought that kept coming up in my head is that these are two

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people who can't even agree on whether to spy on each other. In

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terms of a common front against Russia, it is going to be difficult

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to impose. Absolutely. I am fascinated by the language and the

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semantics. You are listening to news bulletins and you have to listen

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very carefully. We do not know who they are talking about. You hear

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about pro Kiev forces. Now that Ukraine is just Kiev. We hear about

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rebels but who are you talking about? Russian mercenaries,

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Ukrainian forces? And terrorists, the word which is used repeatedly.

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Freedom fighters or terrorists? And then of course, there is a risk of

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losing the plot if you are just looking at what is going on in a

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certain city in Ukraine. The burly and wall fell a quarter of a century

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ago. `` early in. There was a very good piece in the New York Times

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about that. For decades there was this formidable is `` force. We

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perhaps treated Russia as a defeated power but on the other hand Europe

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was never going to look towards Russia, it was going to keep the

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Atlantic alliances. And Eastern European countries like Poland, when

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looking towards Europe, there was no way we were going to ignore Eastern

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European countries. Ukraine, who wants to be part... Even in Russia

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itself, there has always been the Western looking people in Russia.

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But Vladimir Putin has this ambition of having a counter European or Euro

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Asian communities. And there is talk of neo` Bolshevism in that semantics

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and perhaps the murkier it is, the better for Vladimir Putin, because

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we don't know what is going on. How do you want Angela Merkel and Barack

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Obama to agree? You could say that Vladimir Putin is not playing a

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great hand but with great skill. In terms of the economy and the way

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Russia is organised, he is playing very skilfully. He is, although, if

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you think about it, when you said it is hard to imagine Germany and the

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United States working together, even if there was not that kind of layer

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of tension because of the spy story, I don't see what they agreed

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to do in this situation. We step back and say, is Vladimir Putin

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paying a blinder `` isn't he playing a blinder. But I am not sure what

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they do. I can't think of a route through this in the short`term in

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terms of intervening. There was a diplomat on the BBC this morning who

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said that all the are dire but the least worse is to sustain some kind

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of dialogue with Vladimir Putin and I think that is right. But I don't

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think there is any straightforward solution, even if Barack Obama and

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Angela Merkel and EU representatives all get on like a house on fire. Is

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it done more to restrain Kiev from taking the action they have done in

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the last few days? An outbreak of common sense. How do you get there?

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As always, you have got to think how we got here in the first place.

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Since the end of the Cold War, 25 years ago, we have failed to build

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an inclusive peace order after the end of the Cold War which could

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sustain and bring Russia, above all. That was the big challenge facing

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the European Union. In other words, multiple centres including Turkey

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and Russia. It has been a catastrophic failure. The

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association over the last year or so was the European Union trying to

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play geopolitics and it is not do that very well. It has been a huge

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failure of leadership. We need to do what Russia has been calling for

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since the Eastern partnership, which is trilateral talks, a larger piece

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for the European Union, a whole continent to establish a new system

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that peace Congress, which did not take place at the end of the Cold

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War. That dialogue has got to include the Ukrainians and

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suchlike, within a larger umbrella. Even these so`called separatists, it

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is a misnomer because they want to stay. But they want a different

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vision of what Ukraine means. We will come back to that in a moment.

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The arrest of the leader of Sinn Fein, Gerry Adams, in connection

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with the investigation into the murder of Jean McConville has raised

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all kinds of ghosts from the past. Mrs McConville was a widow and

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mother of ten murdered by the IRA in 1972. Sinn Fein said the arrest had

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a political dimension, coming ahead of the European and local elections

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in Ireland. Should historic crimes continue to be investigated or, in

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the interests of the present and future, should we ever be prepared

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to forget past atrocities? In terms of atrocities, this is serious. It

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is strange that we have just been talking about failures to build

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inclusive structures. In the case of Northern Ireland, it is the

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inability to deal with the past as we move forward through this piece,

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political process. There is no mechanism there. People have talked

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about amnesties, reconciliation commissions, but there is nothing

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there. When this pops out of the blue, there is no official mechanism

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for with it so you end up with the ridiculous position where you have

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the Deputy First Minister of the power`sharing administration saying

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that there is a dark side to the police force but he is the guy who

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signed up to this. We went through the reform of the Royal Ulster

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Constabulary, the previous policing arrangements in Northern Ireland.

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New policing arrangements were put in place. Now the police service in

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Northern Ireland is a devolved power. Martin McGuinness is

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partially responsible for that policing service. Is he now saying

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that he does not trust it? David Cameron was very clear that there is

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no politics involved in this. On the other hand, this is a murder that

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took place 40 or so years ago and suddenly, a couple of weeks before

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European local elections in Ireland where Sinn Fein have very big

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ambitions in the Republic of Ireland as well, suddenly their leader is

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arrested. I have no idea whether it is connected with the current

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political campaign but to answer your original deep, profound

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question about whether the past should overwhelm the present ``

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present and the future, it is very clear to me that it should not. The

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whole way that police `` peace process involved is that quite

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blatant wiping of past misdeeds, I am haunted by the image of what

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happened to this mother. I can't get it out of my mind. It is appalling.

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However, all kinds of appalling things went on and John Major, Tony

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Blair, everyone involved in this peace process, decided to park some

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of this. There is no institutional mechanism to deal with this but I

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can tell you, politically, the way to deal with it is you do have two

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ignore some of these past things or else the future is going to be

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wrecked. You can't have it both ways. If you ignore Republican Mr

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Minas and crimes in the past and Jean McConville incident, you also

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have two ignore what the British army did, bloody Sunday, the killing

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of civilians. You have to be evenhanded about this and several

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former Northern Ireland secretaries, Peter Hain, and all these people

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have said this. You can't have an amnesty for one site without the

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other. Peter Hain, I talked to him this week, he said he's not in

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favour of an amnesty, but he says we have to have a mechanism. There has

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to be some mechanism to reconcile people to the past. How would you do

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that is a very congregated question. Please is about making peace with

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the enemy but also making peace within yourself. It is an internal

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community case rather than the occupation or the army. It is

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political, obviously, but it is also psychological and it is not going to

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go away. People are still afraid. As long as the fear is there, it is

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something that they can't just brushed under the carpet. They have

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got to deal with it, but it is really for the community to do it.

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And also, I would not be so worried about Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein is a

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formidable, ruthless machine. They realise they have two deal with it.

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They are trying to control the agenda, although Gerry Adams did not

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know he would be interrogated for such a long time. But they can gain

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a lot from it, the European elections. How do we get to eat

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Greece process to overcome the past `` a peace process? It is out of

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these things that new conflicts are born. This is very much what has

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been happening, for example, in Lithuania, within Poland itself,

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they simply keep saying, we cannot establish civilised relationships

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with Russia. They keep looking at the past. The past is dreadful. My

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father was nearly involved. Your family is Polish. The question of

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victimhood in Northern Ireland or in the Israel`Palestine conflict, you

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have got people on the Prost inside, the Catholic side, and people all

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over Britain who have seen the Birmingham bombings. People have got

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a sense of victimhood. My question is whether it would be adequate for

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those who committed offences to be told there is no amnesty but you

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have to plead guilty and tell us what you have done, you have to give

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the families that degree of closure. Would anyone except that? Indeed.

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They have to have this sense of closure and a sense justice has been

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done. You can in the build peace without justice. But the definition

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of this justice also has to include the concept of forgiveness and

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understanding the historical situation because clearly the

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relationship between Ireland and Britain has been a complex one for

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so many years. As you say, multiple victimhoods but the thing is to `

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the logic of victimhood, that's what we have failed to do in some degree

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in Northern Ireland and more Broadley in Europe. As you know from

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going to Belfast now, compared to 15 years ago say, it's like a different

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planet. It's not just the Queen visiting Ireland and the Irish

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President coming here but things have changed superficially, at

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least, completely. Things have changed phenomenally in Northern

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Ireland as you know from your time there as well as a correspondent.

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People still need to be able to come to terms with it, to see whatever

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kind of, to use the awful cliche closure, and you talk about people

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coming to court and maybe not serving prison sentences and so on,

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we had some of that around the time of the Good Friday Agreement. When

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we came to Peter Hain's Bill, if you remember for the on the runs, people

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still out there that police may or may not wanted for questioning, it

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had to be withdrawn from parliament because they couldn't get agreement

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on who and what and when and where. The Sinn Fein machine that you are

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talking about, south of the border in the Republic of Ireland, is

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growing immensely but it's not ` most of the people, if you look at

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the candidates, for example, who are standing for election to the

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European Parliament in the Republic of Ireland, most weren't around when

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Jean McConville was abducted and what Sinn Fein is Garnering votes

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for there is the way in which they're dealing with austerity,

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economic issues and recession, not Northern Ireland at all. That brings

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us on to our final section. The European Union was invented to

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heal the wounds of the past and ensure there would never again be

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another major European war. Beyond that brave ideal ` all across the

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continent there is discontent over economic problems, austerity, and

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the EU bureaucracy. Will that be reflected in the European elections

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this month by a wave of protest votes ` including a big victory in

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Britain for UKIP? People need to go and vote, that's

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the solution because otherwise people who intend to vote for their

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protest parties are going to win the argument and that would be

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catastrophic. If you look at the turnout, the expected turnout it's

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so low. It's terrible. Can I justice play the obvious card, which is

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people over Britain are thinking why should I bother? Some people will be

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really interested and will vote for which ever party, but a lot of

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people think it's absolutely nothing to do with me. Well, there was this

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great absent ` during the Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage debate, they never

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talked about Europe. We have been in peace 70 years. It's a miracle, we

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have a short`term memory, let's have the last 400 years, when did this

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last happen? And why do a lot of countries, I mean the enlargement

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was not imposed, people wanted to be part of the union.

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And I think that's for this same reason. So, you know, we are

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Europeans and we should all be pro`Europeans because my generation,

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your generation have lived in peace. Then you have this 27 countries

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working together. It's extraordinary. Of course there are

:20:25.:20:28.

plenty of things, for instance, a lot of re reform, I think a few

:20:29.:20:35.

parties want the President of the Commission to be elected at the ` or

:20:36.:20:43.

at least elected, not appointed. There are many democratic reforms we

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could do and we should do. Then we all need to be together rather than

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just leave the table. Your scepticism is not merely a British

:20:52.:20:57.

phenomenon as you know, do you see a big win for UKIP and other

:20:58.:21:02.

effectively protest parties? I assume the polls are right and UKIP

:21:03.:21:07.

in Britain will get more votes than any of the other parties which will

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be an extraordinary moment and the Conservatives will probably come

:21:11.:21:13.

third which will trigger a panic in the Conservative Party. That will be

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the immediate consequence, I suspect. But obviously there are

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deeper issues, as well. The level of discontent in Britain and elsewhere

:21:24.:21:28.

is such that it's a gift for parties that are not seen as part of the

:21:29.:21:34.

political establishment. It's all irrationale, frankly. The reason why

:21:35.:21:41.

there is totally understandable insecurity in 2008 there was a

:21:42.:21:45.

financial crash which had very little to do with the European Union

:21:46.:21:56.

at all. I don't even hear Nigel Farage blaming it. It feeds into the

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political volatility around Europe. UKIP will be the beneficiary. The

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question is for how long? The credibility of political parties

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gives them durability. Actually when you look at their policies, when you

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look at some of the individuals who are quite prominent beyond their

:22:17.:22:20.

leader, the question of credibility comes very quickly to the top.

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Richard, you talked about, I suppose, Europe is unfinished

:22:26.:22:29.

business historically. We haven't really reached a settlement after 25

:22:30.:22:33.

years after the Cold War. Do you see that this discontent, the fact that

:22:34.:22:44.

there is Euroscept sichl in every `` Euroscepticism in every country?

:22:45.:22:47.

What's been missing is the vision thing. The European Union has

:22:48.:22:53.

developed by policy spillover, but what is needed is to revamp it, to

:22:54.:22:58.

have a sense of what I would call a continental vision that Europe can

:22:59.:23:04.

take control of its own test knee `` destiny. But what we have done is

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lacked that vision to establish it and instead of which we have had two

:23:12.:23:20.

things. On the one side, members have used that to continue old

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historical rivalries, using the European Union for its opposite,

:23:29.:23:31.

it's become a revenge project. The second thing is that you have this

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overlay. The European Union yes, a fantastic idea of spreading forward

:23:37.:23:42.

good governance and against corruption and excellent public

:23:43.:23:50.

goods. However, NATO also perhaps a fine thing but the two are separate.

:23:51.:23:55.

What's happened now is they've become overlain and mismatched and

:23:56.:24:01.

people are using the European Union ` and as far as Moscow, don't forget

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Putin came to power in 2,000 as the most pro`European leader Russia has

:24:08.:24:11.

ever had and we can trace the process of ` well, of

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disillusionment and step by step, the Munich conference in 2,000 to

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make him now say there is nothing to lose, you don't respect me, you

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exclude us. Yes. NATO's borders have moved and that's not the same as you

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made clear. But it's a source of resentment. And a sense that the

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European Union is the foregrounder of NATO enlargement. Whether it's

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justified is not the issue, it's perceived to be. Therefore it is so.

:24:43.:24:49.

In terms of a bigger picture, you mentioned Sinn Fein, they will do

:24:50.:24:53.

well in these elections, won't they? Probably. The problem is that if you

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look overall at France, at Finland, Britain and UKIP, you end up with a

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large chunk of the new European Parliament after the end of this

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month with a big self`hating block and you can't actually move forward

:25:15.:25:21.

while you have this because to Steve's point, if you scratch below

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the surface with UKIP they're a party of protest. They don't have

:25:26.:25:30.

the policies. When you see Nigel Farage debating with Nick Clegg all

:25:31.:25:34.

you are debating about is more Europe, less Europe and immigration.

:25:35.:25:38.

You are not actually debating about how people get a mortgage, what are

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you going to do with the financials services sector, the basic stuff

:25:44.:25:47.

that people want to hear about. The longer this goes on, the larger that

:25:48.:25:52.

self`hating block becomes in the European Parliament, the less

:25:53.:25:55.

effective Europe can be in everyday life, so turnout will probably go

:25:56.:25:59.

down. I wish we had more time. That's it for this week. We are back

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next week at the same time. You can comment on the programme at Twitter.

:26:05.:26:05.

Thank you for watching and goodbye. Hello. Mixed fortunes through this

:26:06.:26:38.

bank holiday weekend. There will be cloud and rain at times across

:26:39.:26:41.

northern parts of the UK, however for some of us it will stay dry and

:26:42.:26:45.

fine with plenty of sunshine. There is sunshine to be out there through

:26:46.:26:50.

today. A good day for a walk in the woods. The best of the sunshine so

:26:51.:26:54.

far has been through the central swathe of England, parts of eastern

:26:55.:26:56.

Scotland too. This is

:26:57.:26:58.

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