17/05/2014 Dateline London

from Somali Islamists. There's a full bulletin of news at

the top of the hour. Now on BBC News Dateline London with Gavin Esler.

Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Our world view this week

concerns three democracies in interesting times, from the Indian

elections and the Narendra Modi landslide to the European elections

still to come. But we want to begin with the mining disaster in Turkey

and what it tells us about one of the world's most important emerging

economies, a Moslem country where democracy seemed to be a possible

model for the Middle East. My guests today are Ashis Ray of Ray Media.

Safak Timur of the BBC Turkish Service. Mina al Oraibi of Asharq al

Awsat. And Janet Daley of the Sunday Telegraph.

Turkey first. The terrible mining disaster in western Turkey comes

after years of great successes and achievements often directed by Prime

Minister Erdogan. Despite largely removing the army from politics and

receiving a considerable endorsement in recent local elections Turkey

remains politically very divided and the Erdogan administration has been

accused of corruption, incompetence and ` in the case of the mining

disaster ` extraordinary callousness. Are these just growing

pains for Turkish democracy or a significant setback for a country

which would like to be seen as a model for others? Firstly, the

anger. Why are people so all angry at the government and Prime Minister

Erdogan? The statements from the officials from beginning to end was

not giving information which was satisfactory for the families who

lost their loved ones. This is one of the first things but has made

people furious. As they lost their trust due to the lack of

information, rumours were all around. Now the death toll is almost

300, but nobody believes this. Those in the town believe it is 400.

Everybody is asking, where are these 100 miners? You look back over the

last year, rather than all the successes that Turkey has gone

through that you mentioned in your introduction, we are now asking

questions about oppression against dissident people and the lack of

press freedom. We are turning inside ourselves. That said, he clearly has

a constituency of ordinary people behind him. Yes. All the events over

the last year is evidence for people to be angry at Erdogan. For his

supporters, this is adding to their support. There is a video of the

Prime Minister hitting somebody in this Turkish mining town. The person

who was hit says it was an accident. The henchman who has seen kicking a

demonstrator, that was a purposeful act. I don't think that can be

described as an accident. The moral of the story is there is more to

democracy and elections. Some of the things that Erdogan unquestionably

did say was so ill judged and callous, almost cynical.

Comparing Turkey in the 20th century to 19th`century England. It was an

appalling thing for an elected leader to say. There was contempt

for the needs and anxieties for ordinary people. That his death to

democracy. It is a complete failure to understand what the system is

supposed to be about. There was a time where various Arab countries

were looking at what was happening in Turkey and removing the Army from

politics was seen to be a positive step. There is an issue with the

Muslim Brotherhood. It was seen as a success that you can throw off the

cloak of Islamist am so to speak and become a strong political party that

has solid economic policies. That was one of the strengths of Erdogan

and his government. Having said that, there are economic trouble is

coming to Turkey. 9% growth ten years ago and now it is about 3%

growth. These issues are going to start hurting Erdogan. When the

comeback to the Arab world, after the opening up, Visa restrictions

were lifted so people could come to Turkey and this country was seen as

able to hold onto traditions while becoming moderate and. That is

becoming less and less evident for Turkey because of issues like press

restrictions and statements from the leader saying that some deaths

happen and it is ordinarily, which was very bizarre. But I think

Erdogan thinks it is OK and he can still keep wishing for its. There

will be elections in August. One important point that emerges out of

this is that the public fury that we are noticing at the moment could be

linked with the slow economic growth. That said, there are two

aspects which strike me. I do expect trade unionists to protest and go on

strike. By their very definition, they are from the left. That has

happened. Has been a one`day strike. Yes. But it is interesting to note

that there was a very popular Muslim cleric and he has severely

criticised the Prime Minister. From the United States. I know, but he

has a considerable following in Turkey not merely among the public

but also amongst the bureaucracy. In the end, we will see what happens

between now and August when Erdogan has an ambition to run for

president, it seems. And whether this fury is going to be short lived

or if you will be posted. How do you see the next few months going? There

have been many things that people have been protesting about, for

example building a shopping centre in the centre of Istanbul, so how do

use either happening given that the country seems to be so divided in

terms of support for Erdogan? Everybody is asking the same

question to journalists. We are following the events, but we really

don't know. Everything changes so quickly. This mining disaster came

out of the blue because it is an accident, but we know that there are

some negligence is which lead to that accident. It officially had a

clean bill of health a few months ago. Yes, but there are questions

about that report and critics against that. Everything happened so

quickly in Turkey. Over the last year, everything is changing one by

one. We can't keep up with the speed of the events. Probably Erdogan will

run for a presidential elections because he is openly making his

passion for this. We estimate they will get a strong vote, but we don't

know what will happen. Let's leave it there.

The world's biggest democracy ` India ` has been voting in one of

the most extraordinary elections imaginable. More than 800 million

people eligible to go to the polls. But what will the results mean for a

very diverse society and for the Congress party which has dominated

Indian politics since independence, but not any more? Why did he win? Is

it to do with economic factors? There are two reasons why he has

one. The ruling dispensation, the Coalition Government, and become

really unpopular. Inflation was beyond control. Went food prices go

up, the poor and the middle`class reaction. Wasn't really a factor.

Employment generation was a factor. The combination of factors and also

the fact that the Congress party and Congress led government were seen to

be utterly corrupt. That caused the problem. That was the negative

anti`incumbency factor, if you like. On the other side, Narendra Modii

was promising the moon, promising a miracle. Populist politics combined

with the unpopularity of the Congress has resulted in his

victory. He has been an international pariah since some of

the events in Gujurat in 2002 and has been seen ads very divisive in

terms of this complicated society of religions and different populations

in India. He is suspected of abetting riots which killed Muslims,

but the jury is still out on that. His home minister at the time, his

right`hand man, has been charged of murder and of creating false

encounters. He will doubtless they be facing trial very soon. Whether

that ultimately reaches Narendra Modii, we will have to wait and see.

The Indian judicial system is rather slow. But sometimes it is

exceedingly short. What do you make of this? Britain didn't want to have

anything to do with him? The good news story perhaps is that India

seems to have reached a new kind of maturity with its own democratic

process, in that the family who has ruled since the post`colonial period

has gone. They have reached the point where they will elect someone

other than that particular dynasty, so that is healthy. The danger for

the global picture is that he might inflame the difficulties with

Pakistan, if the Muslim community does not feel included. Viz are two

nuclear powers who could potentially be confrontational. `` these are.

There is a long`standing issue of mass poverty in India. There was no

real attempt to address mass poverty. Poverty has gone down in

real terms, but it still remains there. Poverty of a kind that you

would think was impossible in a democratic society.

The point about Pakistan, if I may just add to what she said, an

element of confrontation took place between India and Pakistan the last

time there was a government of this kind. They went to war in Kashmir.

There was tension. People are talking about more assertive Indian

foreign policy is under Narendra Modii. But there is a paradigms

shift in the politics of India. India has largely, since

independence, been a left of centre, secular population. This has

swung to a right wing Hindu nationalist politics. The optimistic

that would be all these people going to the polls and Narendra Modi now

speaks for all of India. This will be the challenge? I believe that

changing the political dynasty, the fact that the complacency came into

play, with a clear mandate, he does not even need a coalition

government, he will lead with strength and when you hear Narendra

Modi speak after the results came in, he said it is clear victory.

That is good because he is allowed to make tough decisions but it's

concerning FA believes he alone speaks for India. `` if he believes.

Leaders have a responsibility showing that they care for everybody

and the fact that he has not shown remorse for what happened raises a

lot of questions. The great thing about having a majority is you can

do things but there was no one else to blame if things go wrong. How do

you see it? All these things remind me of my country though they are two

separate countries. Getting your support from the elections is fine

but if you feel you can take the strength from the ballot you should

stop and think what is going on. The Indian Premier this there is no

promising miracles which reminds me of the Turkish by Minister `` Prime

Minister. Voters all across the European Union can go to the polls

to vote in the elections. Many will stay at home so what can these

elections tell us about the state of Europe and perhaps the state of

Great Britain? A lot of people who do not stay at home will be voting

for UKIP in this country and some and pleasant right`wing policies in

Europe. That is a reflection of the tremendous the satisfaction, and

absolute boat of no confidence in those institutions. This is bizarre

and ironic when you think that the whole point of this European Union

project was anti`nationalistic. It was an attempt to create a

fellowship and in the European community partnership that would

transcend boundaries. I understand it an attempt to undermine true

democracy and to say we cannot trust the people any longer to govern

themselves. Hitler was elected and Mussolini rose through tremendous

popularity in his own country. We now have two take back the

diplomatic oligarchy and cannot allow the mob to gain that kind of

ascendancy again. The result is that they have produced another mob. As

xenophobic mob. When people are dissatisfied and feel powerless they

almost always victimise the outsider. The always blame

foreigners. This is what they have managed bridges. That does not

present a very successful picture of the European institutions. The

right`wing parties will be the main beneficiaries? The irony that UKIP

is against the European Union will be hard to fathom in that they will

probably benefit the most from the European elections. Turnout has was

being quite low except in Brussels and Luxembourg where you see high

turnouts. They see the impact. Here we almost feel like it is something

very distant and does bureaucratic. It will not make a difference. The

British are not alone in that. You will scepticism in Europe is quite

significant. `` Euro`skepticism. Those who do go right to vote are

those within and gender `` with an agenda against the European Union.

This does say a lot about the state of politics and protest votes. Some

people are disregarding current events. You can behave how you like

because you do not feel you are having to be a member of the

European Union. On the grassroots level it is kind of forgotten. If we

were in the European Union, I do not think people would be bothered to go

and vote. Look at what has happened in Cyprus. I think India would like

to see at cohesive European Union. India has been negotiating a free

trade agreement with the European Union which I think will happen in

the not too distant future. The elections this time seemed to be, in

several countries, more of a referendum than elections to the

European union Parliament. Is that because people do not have a clue

what the European Parliament as our what it does? This remarkable

Parliament where there are no opposition benches and no Treasury

benches. They have groups of various persuasions. What we're likely to

see is a composition in the new European Parliament which gives

slightly change the future direction of the European Union because I

think that a lot of sceptics could become members of the European

Parliament. They could become a very significant amount of people who do

not think the institution should exist. In Britain, I have noticed

that when you ask a person in an opinion poll who they will vote for

in the European elections, it seems that Nigel Farage and his UKIP Barty

is second in the opinion polls. If you ask the same person who they

will vote for in the local elections, which will take place in

the same day, UKIP afterguard are fourth. That has serious

consequences for your life. The European Parliament is irrelevant to

most ripples lives. Apart from being anti`European, there's not much

known about UKIP and what they do for local councils. Why other

conservatives so scared of them? They see that activists are going

away and people do not turn up to Conservative Party conferences. They

know that the basic point that UKIP is racing has serious consequences

for the Conservatives. If the Conservatives are not seem to be

sufficiently sceptical about Europe, and to renegotiate our role in

significant towns, that will damage them in the general election

``significant terms. I do not think that David Cameron's idea of

renegotiating is very realistic. We will have to see what happens with

the actual referendum if it does happen. David Cameron has put a

referendum as part of his election campaign and that says a lot. But we

apply that this kind of promise before from political leaders and

they have not come through with it. I suspect that the popularity of

Nigel Farage may go down because he has had his racist moment. I think

the attempts of many other supporters who have sent many

extreme and unpleasant things in racist terms, if you went through

comments by every member of the Conservative Party and Labour Party

you could probably find almost as many racist comments. There seems to

be a systematic attempt to smear him which enhances his popularity. The

political establishment trying to smear the outsider. That is that for

this week. You can comment on the programme on Twitter, @gavinesler.

It may well be the middle of spring but weather conditions are very much

like summer across most of the country. There is some rain forecast

for the extreme north`west but elsewhere some decent sunny spells

expected and temperatures will respond. A