16/08/2014 Dateline London


16/08/2014

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 16/08/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

A full roundup of the news at the top of the hour. Before that,

:00:00.:00:08.

dateline Scotland, with Gavin Esler in Glasgow.

:00:09.:00:28.

Welcome to Glasgow. A special edition of Dateline Scotland. One

:00:29.:00:35.

month before the Scottish people go to the polls to vote for or against

:00:36.:00:39.

independence, which, if it happens would be the biggest constitutional

:00:40.:00:43.

change for the native kingdom in 300 years. If it does not happen, it

:00:44.:00:48.

will still lead to a rethink of how the UK works. My guests are Tom

:00:49.:00:53.

Gordon of the Sunday Herald. His newspaper supports a Yes vote.

:00:54.:00:58.

Kenneth McKenna `` Kevin McKenna says he is leaning towards a Yes

:00:59.:01:09.

vote. Lindsay McIntosh is a Scottish classical editor of The Times.

:01:10.:01:17.

Welcome. Let's begin by setting the scene for the campaign for those

:01:18.:01:21.

viewers watching around the world. Give us a flavour of where you think

:01:22.:01:27.

we are. Mercifully, we are in the closing stages. Everyone is

:01:28.:01:33.

exhausted. The broad picture is that they side that wants to oppose

:01:34.:01:37.

independence is still in the lead. The lead has narrowed somewhat. The

:01:38.:01:41.

no side is still ahead. For Alex Salmond, the Yes campaign has a bit

:01:42.:01:49.

of ground to make up. Catherine, do you agree broadly with that

:01:50.:01:53.

assessment? Dazzle the No campaign have to do much except sit tight? Or

:01:54.:01:59.

should they offer a more positive vision, because that has been one of

:02:00.:02:04.

the criticisms of Better Together? Polling starts in two weeks time.

:02:05.:02:10.

The next two to four weeks will be critical. I do not think the No

:02:11.:02:18.

campaign or are no thanks campaign can be complacent at all. There is a

:02:19.:02:23.

lot to play for. There are a lot of undecided voters who are still

:02:24.:02:28.

listening to the arguments. I think the No campaign must convince them

:02:29.:02:32.

that a Yes vote is a risky vote. I disagree that they should be more

:02:33.:02:39.

positive. I think any question they ask is construed as negative. And I

:02:40.:02:42.

think they are asking legitimate questions. Lindsay? I think

:02:43.:02:48.

Catherine is correct that they do not need to be more positive in

:02:49.:02:54.

order to win. They seem to have a 20 point lead in some polls. They seem

:02:55.:02:59.

on the front foot here. The problem is that if they do win and the

:03:00.:03:04.

campaign is perceived to be negative we're left with a Scotland which

:03:05.:03:10.

questions why it voted no and has perhaps not the self`confidence in

:03:11.:03:15.

itself but we would like to see after making such a historical

:03:16.:03:20.

decision. I have enjoyed the campaign. I can understand what Tom

:03:21.:03:24.

is saying. He has been on the ground. I have never seen Scotland

:03:25.:03:30.

more energised. I have never seen such a positive political dynamic in

:03:31.:03:37.

the country. A lot of that has palpably been generated by the Yes

:03:38.:03:41.

campaign. Because they are campaigning for something on

:03:42.:03:47.

something they have been brought up on. It is quite evangelical in its

:03:48.:03:52.

fervour. I have sympathy for the No campaign because it is difficult to

:03:53.:03:56.

be positive about the negative. I understand what Catherine is saying

:03:57.:04:00.

that it is not a negative campaign. But I think at its essence, it must

:04:01.:04:05.

be negative because they are having to back down. They are having to

:04:06.:04:11.

play with a straight bat, to use a cricket analogy. Hopefully, the

:04:12.:04:15.

Nationalists do not come out with a big game changer. The No campaign

:04:16.:04:19.

will be looking to play things straight, steady and not try to...

:04:20.:04:25.

But don't they have to do, as Catherine suggested, two point

:04:26.:04:35.

something out that these are the risks. That is all they have to do?

:04:36.:04:40.

Of course there will be risks. It is a certain amount of naivete in the

:04:41.:04:44.

hearts of some Nationalists when they say they are expecting the rest

:04:45.:04:49.

of the country, who perhaps do not share their evangelical fervour,

:04:50.:04:52.

that it is OK, everything will be fine. Trust us. But I do not think

:04:53.:04:57.

they should get hung up on seeing there will be risks with an emerging

:04:58.:05:01.

country after the hundred years any union. Of course there will be

:05:02.:05:07.

risks. I think Kevin is right. There will be quite a lot of Scottish

:05:08.:05:14.

people who would like to vote yes. What the no thanks campaign has to

:05:15.:05:17.

say to them is that we understand that, we are patriotic, but if you

:05:18.:05:21.

vote yes, you must realise that you may be poor, there is much

:05:22.:05:28.

uncertainty, some vital questions, particularly about currency, have

:05:29.:05:32.

not been answered and I think quite a lot of these people will not vote

:05:33.:05:36.

yes because they will think it is too big a gamble. What you think of

:05:37.:05:42.

the tone of the campaign? Kevin said in one sense it has been a great

:05:43.:05:46.

national conversation. There's no doubt about that. These are

:05:47.:05:49.

important questions and people engaging in politics, which is a

:05:50.:05:55.

good thing. On the other hand, I know from friends there have been

:05:56.:05:59.

divisions within families, workplaces, sometimes it can become

:06:00.:06:05.

mean. There are people who were born Nationalists and will remain that

:06:06.:06:11.

way whatever happens. I think they are operating... There are almost

:06:12.:06:17.

two arguments. They believe we are Nationalists and should have

:06:18.:06:20.

independence. The other side are seeing that we care about Scotland

:06:21.:06:24.

but you must answer these questions. I think it is like apples and pears.

:06:25.:06:29.

They are parallel conversations rather than an exchange. I have

:06:30.:06:35.

friends who will vote yes and they actually say they do not care if

:06:36.:06:39.

Scotland will be poor or not. There are a lot of people out there who do

:06:40.:06:45.

care about whether they will be poorer. As we said before, it's the

:06:46.:06:53.

economy, stupid. I can understand that at the coal face, 20 years, 30

:06:54.:07:01.

years... People have been thinking about it for a long time. I am

:07:02.:07:05.

perplexed at the idea people are undecided. It is not because they

:07:06.:07:11.

haven't been paying attention. They have been thinking about it on a

:07:12.:07:16.

theoretical level. It has never been crystallised or become an imminent

:07:17.:07:20.

possibility until now. People have started to think about it in a

:07:21.:07:24.

different way because it is a real prospect. I agree with Devon that it

:07:25.:07:27.

has been a generally uplifting and positive campaign. `` Kevin.

:07:28.:07:33.

Politicians love this because people are glad to see them when they knock

:07:34.:07:42.

on doors. Disengagement from politics has receded and people are

:07:43.:07:46.

now actively engaging. The one exception is social media, which has

:07:47.:07:50.

been anti`social. There has been a lot of abuse on that. But,

:07:51.:07:54.

generally, town hall meetings have revived. 300 people turning up on a

:07:55.:08:00.

wet Tuesday night to hear the debate. A good thing for Scotland. I

:08:01.:08:06.

think it has been a good thing for Scotland. We need to have these

:08:07.:08:10.

conversations. Where I disagree with Kevin and possibly Tom is that the

:08:11.:08:13.

Yes campaign has been overwhelmingly positive. Particularly now, as they

:08:14.:08:19.

enter the final straight, the is a huge amount of negativity. We are

:08:20.:08:24.

starting to see messages like "you must vote yes because if you bought

:08:25.:08:27.

now the Scottish budget will be slashed. We will be frozen out by

:08:28.:08:34.

Westminster". What about the NHS, the police service, education? All

:08:35.:08:37.

of those things will be cut if you do not vote yes, according to them.

:08:38.:08:42.

And it is becoming an inherently negative campaign, ironically for

:08:43.:08:47.

one which wants people to vote yes. You can see Alec Salmond has a lot

:08:48.:08:52.

to do. He is behind in the polls. People generally do not think he did

:08:53.:08:55.

so well in the last debate. He has one month to turn things around. Can

:08:56.:09:00.

he do it? He has been a great campaigner in the past. We have

:09:01.:09:03.

underestimated them at our peril in the past. At the Holyrood election,

:09:04.:09:13.

which brought us to this level, around about four to five week in

:09:14.:09:19.

the polls, the SNP were between 15 and 20 points behind. The internal

:09:20.:09:22.

polling was telling them more optimistic messages. To the extent

:09:23.:09:28.

that Alex Salmond himself was saying to senior advisers, I do not trust

:09:29.:09:33.

our own figures. There was such a dissonance there. And then we all

:09:34.:09:36.

know what happened. The SNP won an overall majority, which Holyrood was

:09:37.:09:42.

set up to stop any single party gaining an overall majority. We're

:09:43.:09:48.

at the same stage year. The Nationalists I have spoken to are

:09:49.:09:53.

still quietly confident because of the pattern of their polling over

:09:54.:10:00.

the last seven years. But, yes, I think he must still pool a big

:10:01.:10:04.

rabbit out of the hat. He need something big and important or

:10:05.:10:09.

somebody who has wanted to vote no to change their mind and say they

:10:10.:10:16.

are voting yes. He need and optimistic figure to say good things

:10:17.:10:20.

about an independent Scotland. I hear what Lindsey is saying about

:10:21.:10:23.

the NHS and the negativity of the yes message, but it cannot really be

:10:24.:10:29.

perceived as negative to say that the NHS in an independent Scotland

:10:30.:10:33.

would fare better and be more fit for purpose than it is currently in

:10:34.:10:38.

England. Looking back, the whole question of the pound and whether

:10:39.:10:44.

you can keep it, has he mishandled that? It is very difficult,

:10:45.:10:49.

presumably, to sell independence if you cannot be sure that you will

:10:50.:10:57.

have an independent currency? I can see where he is coming from because

:10:58.:11:03.

both sides had agreed at the Edinburgh agreement, which was going

:11:04.:11:05.

to frame not just the terms of debate but also what would happen

:11:06.:11:13.

afterwards, both sides agreed and signed up to act in the best

:11:14.:11:17.

interests of the entire UK, whether a yes or vote book title No vote

:11:18.:11:23.

prevailed. If you're cynical, you may say we have one and a half years

:11:24.:11:28.

following a potential Yes vote were many things will come out in the

:11:29.:11:33.

wash. It will be a lot of horse trading. We must make clear to

:11:34.:11:36.

people who do not follow this closely, if there is a Yes vote,

:11:37.:11:40.

they will not be a split the next day. It will take a long time and be

:11:41.:11:49.

a process of disengagement. I simply cannot believe that Alistair

:11:50.:11:52.

Darling, whom I know is a patriotically, committed Scott, Andy

:11:53.:11:58.

Scott indeed that many of us are proud of, I cannot see the following

:11:59.:12:01.

a Yes vote that Alistair Darling will set his face against a currency

:12:02.:12:10.

union. He might not, but whatever the rest of the UK Government... One

:12:11.:12:16.

of the things we must consider that whatever Scotland does is not in a

:12:17.:12:21.

bubble. There are other people who will relate to what happens. I think

:12:22.:12:28.

you are quite right. Alex Salmond wants a currency union, which will

:12:29.:12:32.

mean that for the first time in 300 years, Scotland's fiscal policy will

:12:33.:12:37.

be determined by a foreign country. They will tell us in Scotland how

:12:38.:12:42.

much we can spend on health and education. What is independent about

:12:43.:12:47.

that? I fail to see. I think it will be very hard for Alex Salmond to say

:12:48.:12:51.

this is best for Scotland and what is more it is best for you too.

:12:52.:13:03.

There are many companies that the Chancellor of the striker will tell

:13:04.:13:08.

will be facing extra tariffs to move goods across the border to a country

:13:09.:13:13.

which is currently England's biggest second trading partner after

:13:14.:13:20.

America. Yes, but you do not know what the answer is. For a currency

:13:21.:13:25.

union must be negotiation and nobody knows what the outcome of that

:13:26.:13:28.

negotiation will be. And if it will not be in the interests of the rest

:13:29.:13:32.

of the United Kingdom, it will not happen. But I think Lindsay is also

:13:33.:13:38.

correct. If you look back over the last three months, Alistair Darling

:13:39.:13:42.

is saying today what he said three months ago. He is asking the same

:13:43.:13:52.

questions. Alex Salmond has moved from seeing it will be a confident

:13:53.:13:56.

victory to saying we will not have an NHS in Scotland if it becomes

:13:57.:14:01.

independent. The NHS in Scotland is completely independent at the

:14:02.:14:09.

moment. It is completely devolved. I do not know if Alex Salmond said

:14:10.:14:15.

that! Well, the noise in the media, is that the NHS in Scotland is

:14:16.:14:25.

completely... That is an interesting area. How far is Scotland already

:14:26.:14:32.

independent? The Better Together Campaign says you can have the best

:14:33.:14:36.

of both worlds. That is the core of their argument. For anybody coming

:14:37.:14:44.

year from outside, there has been law, schools, would most people not

:14:45.:14:50.

have voted for more devolution had that been on the ticket two and that

:14:51.:14:55.

is what they may get if it is a No vote? That does seem to be the most

:14:56.:15:01.

popular option in the polls. There is still the issue that the Scottish

:15:02.:15:09.

Parliament does not raise tax. It relies on financing from South of

:15:10.:15:12.

the border. It can never really put on long trousers until it gets tax

:15:13.:15:19.

raising powers. If you believe the Westminster politicians, that is

:15:20.:15:24.

what you will get. They can put on three quarters length trousers

:15:25.:15:26.

because they have tax`raising powers which they have chosen to use. They

:15:27.:15:34.

decide how to spend NHS money in Scotland. Nobody else in Britain is

:15:35.:15:40.

saying this is how much you have to spend on health. They can spend the

:15:41.:15:45.

money they get from Westminster how they like at the moment. The Mac if

:15:46.:15:50.

they keep slashing the budget by ?25 billion a year, that is going to

:15:51.:16:03.

have a deleterious effect. How do you see this and how independent do

:16:04.:16:08.

most Scots feel? They feel very independent about the issues we

:16:09.:16:11.

talked about, health and education and so on. The problem is one that

:16:12.:16:17.

Tom raises, that we do have too some extent a pocket money parliament

:16:18.:16:19.

where it does not raise the money it spends and is not properly

:16:20.:16:23.

accountable. Now that we are having this debate, however, on the

:16:24.:16:26.

constitution that has been brought into focus and the Westminster

:16:27.:16:31.

parties have been made to search within their policies and think,

:16:32.:16:34.

what is the best constitutional settlement for Scotland within the

:16:35.:16:39.

UK? What we have seen is the Conservatives bring forward

:16:40.:16:43.

proposals involving income tax, Labour bringing forward proposals

:16:44.:16:46.

short of that and Lib Dems searching for a federal model. Can I bring up

:16:47.:16:51.

the question of trust which you raised, Kevin? One of the other

:16:52.:16:55.

things that strikes me as an expatriate Scot coming here and

:16:56.:16:58.

listening to the debate you get one side saying he would be ?1000 per

:16:59.:17:02.

year better off if you vote our way and the other side ?1400 better off

:17:03.:17:06.

if you vote the other way, your mortgages will go up ?1600 if you

:17:07.:17:11.

vote yes as one newspaper headline this week said. None of these things

:17:12.:17:16.

are facts. Despite you saying that the tone of the campaign has been

:17:17.:17:20.

quite high, most of these things are opinions and when the politicians

:17:21.:17:23.

save just trust our figures, maybe they will trust one side or the

:17:24.:17:26.

other but if you are in the middle you might not trust either. I agree

:17:27.:17:30.

that a lot of these figures are unquantifiable and not subject to

:17:31.:17:35.

rigorous, objective research and they never will be until five years

:17:36.:17:41.

down the line. So is this a leap, what you feel in your gut? This

:17:42.:17:45.

whole cliche about the head and heart campaign, in the end it is a

:17:46.:17:49.

heart decision. I agree with Catherine. I have no idea how much

:17:50.:17:56.

better off or poorer we will be but an international expert in

:17:57.:18:05.

anybody's currency. Perhaps if he came to a different conclusion he

:18:06.:18:10.

would be a yes man. He is a no man because he has done his homework.

:18:11.:18:17.

Has he got a knighthood yet? Go for the man and not the ball. Professor

:18:18.:18:22.

Roy McDonald cannot be discredited on this programme by any of us. I

:18:23.:18:30.

would never discredit him. Why were you asking if he had a knighthood. I

:18:31.:18:36.

was just wondering. There are some facts in there but there are doubts.

:18:37.:18:39.

Yes there are and lots of it will come down to trusts and gut feeling,

:18:40.:18:43.

as Catherine said earlier with some of her friends who are born

:18:44.:18:47.

nationalists. That I think one of the reasons why a lot of Labour

:18:48.:18:51.

people are moving towards yes, at least 30%, is because they see

:18:52.:18:57.

Labour have missed a massive opportunity here. Labour had an

:18:58.:19:00.

opportunity to say we will come up with a third way. We want Devomax

:19:01.:19:14.

and this is the way we will do it. If they had done that the issue of

:19:15.:19:18.

independence would not be on the table. A lot of Labour voters are

:19:19.:19:22.

moving towards yes because they are sick of seeing Ed Miliband share a

:19:23.:19:27.

platform with the Tories. I'm fully expecting Ed Miliband to do the

:19:28.:19:31.

keynote address at the next Tory party conference. I don't think that

:19:32.:19:36.

is true, how many platforms as he shared with David Cameron? With

:19:37.:19:41.

currency, with full independence. I don't think he has shared a platform

:19:42.:19:45.

with him on that. You mean metaphorically? This is the first

:19:46.:19:51.

time this year I've seen a Labour leader share a manifesto issue with

:19:52.:20:01.

the Tories. We were talking about the cuts and that is also an

:20:02.:20:06.

uncertainty. That plays into Mr Salmond's hands which is why he has

:20:07.:20:10.

been trying to arrange a discussion on television with David Cameron

:20:11.:20:13.

rather than with Alistair Darling. It was not so long ago Scotland have

:20:14.:20:19.

no Conservative MPs at all and it has only had one in the last 12

:20:20.:20:24.

years or so. A majority of Scots voted Conservative in the 1950s so

:20:25.:20:28.

it is not as if this has never been a conservative country. And voting

:20:29.:20:35.

SNP. In the 1950s. Nowadays they are toxic and get a small

:20:36.:20:40.

representation. About 15% of the vote in proportional representation

:20:41.:20:43.

in the last Scottish Parliament real action. His wife Alex Salmond wanted

:20:44.:20:47.

to debate David Cameron because he was the antithesis of what a lot of

:20:48.:20:53.

Scots want from the politics. It is quite a short`term thing, though. If

:20:54.:20:56.

independence is for ever it's about the principle, rather than the

:20:57.:21:03.

expedient. It shouldn't influence voters but the SNP campaign

:21:04.:21:14.

influences yes voters. They also motivate the fabled missing million,

:21:15.:21:17.

the million or so people who have become habitual nonvoters and are

:21:18.:21:21.

alienating by conventional politics. They still hate the Tories, they

:21:22.:21:26.

might not follow politics too closely, but still hate the Tories

:21:27.:21:30.

and this is a factor. Do any of you think, talking to for journalists,

:21:31.:21:35.

do any of you think that the newspapers, which have Scottish

:21:36.:21:38.

editions, have said something different to Scottish voters, like

:21:39.:21:44.

the sun in England? `` Scottish papers. There is a possibility that

:21:45.:21:49.

Rupert Murdoch, who has fallen out big`time with David Cameron,

:21:50.:21:54.

especially when Cameron was happy to be his friend but then vetoed and

:21:55.:22:01.

destroyed any possibility of the BSkyB merger because of the phone

:22:02.:22:05.

hacking. I think there is a feeling amongst one or two people at the Sun

:22:06.:22:11.

that this could be a classic opportunity for Rupert Murdoch to

:22:12.:22:13.

give his former friend a bloody nose. If the sun came out for

:22:14.:22:18.

Scottish independence that could be very interesting indeed. I don't

:22:19.:22:24.

think it will make a difference. The Scottish Sun in 2007 ran a picture

:22:25.:22:30.

of the SNP symbol converted into a hangman's news on the front page and

:22:31.:22:33.

said if you vote for Alex Salmond you are putting your head in this

:22:34.:22:40.

and the SNP won. However convincing journalists are perhaps we don't

:22:41.:22:45.

change votes. They will want to be on the winning side this time

:22:46.:22:50.

around. But he may want to be on the winning side in the English votes in

:22:51.:22:57.

2015. He will flirt with this idea to extract political capital in the

:22:58.:23:02.

rest of the UK. We only have a few minutes left. What difference would

:23:03.:23:06.

it make if there was a Yes vote on the 18th? What difference would it

:23:07.:23:10.

make for Scotland? It would be huge, as we have been saying, the biggest

:23:11.:23:14.

change in 300 years so we need to start thinking about currency, we

:23:15.:23:18.

need to talk about European Union membership. How on earth do you

:23:19.:23:22.

break up this political union which has exist if the 300 years? There

:23:23.:23:26.

must be so many things we have not even touched on yet which will come

:23:27.:23:32.

out of the woodwork `` has insisted for 300 years. I think she is right.

:23:33.:23:38.

We cannot get bogged down in bureaucratic issues for years to

:23:39.:23:43.

come. It will be grim. We're not talking about issues that really

:23:44.:23:46.

matter to people, whether they will be better schools and hospitals or

:23:47.:23:50.

jobs, it will be a constant battle between Scotland and the rest of the

:23:51.:23:54.

United Kingdom. The idea that you can do it in 18 months is

:23:55.:23:59.

optimistic, to be kind. I think an independent Scotland would put

:24:00.:24:06.

Scotland's relationship with England on a mature, amicable, friendly

:24:07.:24:12.

footing. The union could be perceived to have run its course. It

:24:13.:24:17.

is not fit for purpose any more. It was in the 18th and 19th centuries

:24:18.:24:21.

when we had so many shared institutions. Those institutions are

:24:22.:24:29.

beginning to become decayed. I think a confident, independent Scotland,

:24:30.:24:32.

if that is what is going to happen, will be good for the rest of the UK

:24:33.:24:37.

and the rest of the world. And I wonder if the BBC and the other

:24:38.:24:42.

broadcasters today have to will have their cameras trained on the UN to

:24:43.:24:45.

see a Scottish flag take its place with all the other free, independent

:24:46.:24:50.

countries. Absolutely profound change, no matter what Alex Salmond

:24:51.:24:54.

talks about continuity, profound change for Scotland and the UK. The

:24:55.:25:00.

soul`searching Scotland has gone through over the last few years will

:25:01.:25:03.

transfer to the rest of the UK as it wonders what kind of future to

:25:04.:25:06.

establish for itself and its place in the world. I also think life will

:25:07.:25:10.

go on and they will be a bumpy period of a few years and then for

:25:11.:25:13.

an independent Scotland, if that's what happens, it will be back to the

:25:14.:25:18.

grind, Legislation and policy and life goes on. In terms of the No

:25:19.:25:23.

vote there will still be more devolution. The details will have to

:25:24.:25:27.

be sorted out? I think they will. The Westminster parties have learned

:25:28.:25:33.

the lessons of the aftermath of the first referendum and came back

:25:34.:25:36.

within 15 years. They are acutely aware they do not want this to be a

:25:37.:25:41.

never`ending thing. As it was in Canada. That's it for this special

:25:42.:25:45.

edition of dateline Scotland in Glasgow. We will be back at the same

:25:46.:25:49.

time next week. You can comment on the programme on Twitter using the

:25:50.:25:53.

hashtag dateline. Thank you for watching. Goodbye.

:25:54.:26:18.

There is a mixture of whether on offer through the rest

:26:19.:26:23.

Blustery winds for sure across the northern half of Britain,

:26:24.:26:27.

They will be some rain in the forecast but it is not

:26:28.:26:33.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS