Browse content similar to 13/09/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
Hello and welcome to Dateline. I am Maxine Mawhinney. Today we discuss | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
the upcoming Scottish Referendum and have an exclusive insight into the | :00:31. | :00:36. | |
brains behind the Isis Islamic fighters. My guests are Steve | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
Richards of the Independent, joining us from Glasgow Kevin McKenna of the | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
Observer, Agnes Poirier of the French magazine Marianne, and the | :00:44. | :00:57. | |
Arab writer and broadcaster Bari Abdel Atwan. Welcome to you | :00:58. | :00:59. | |
all. First, there's just a few more days | :01:00. | :01:06. | |
of campaigning before 4.5 million Scots vote to either stay or leave | :01:07. | :01:09. | |
Great Britain. Whatever the outcome, huge changes are to come. Steve, can | :01:10. | :01:15. | |
I come to you first. What are your thoughts? | :01:16. | :01:15. | |
This week, President Obama made it Would he have to think about | :01:16. | :03:00. | |
resigning? I think he will think about it. I don't think he will. I | :03:01. | :03:09. | |
don't think it would add to the sense of crisis. There obvious | :03:10. | :03:17. | |
assessor. `` there is no obvious assessor. One of the issues will be | :03:18. | :03:24. | |
his future. His future will be near fatally undermined. Those are two of | :03:25. | :03:37. | |
the many consequences that would arise from a yes vote. Thank you for | :03:38. | :03:46. | |
joining us. Give us a sense of Scotland today. I would endorse what | :03:47. | :03:56. | |
Steve said. This has electrified the country. Not a single village or | :03:57. | :04:04. | |
town will not have had some kind of political meeting. No matter what | :04:05. | :04:20. | |
happens. The country has caught fire with politics. Also community | :04:21. | :04:29. | |
engagement. People would not have voted at Westminster elections or | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
Holyrood elections and now feel they have a voice. That sort of | :04:34. | :04:41. | |
momentum, organic is not easily stopped. Think there will be | :04:42. | :04:57. | |
ramifications in some parts of England from people who previously | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
felt alienate it from the Westminster model of doing politics. | :05:02. | :05:10. | |
Even if it is a narrow win for the No vote, people will have been | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
encouraged about what can be achieved by ordinary people finding | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
their voices again. We are talking about people watching | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
this, people in Catalonia are watching. | :05:24. | :05:31. | |
Yes, but you cannot be half pregnant and you cannot be half independent. | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
We have no idea about what will unravel if the Yes vote passes. As | :05:37. | :05:42. | |
Steve said, if it is a marginal win for the No vote, I think Britain | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
needs a resounding No vote so that it can move on. In any case, | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
Scotland and nationalists in Scotland have won because they will | :05:55. | :05:58. | |
get more autonomy, even if it is a No vote. But the consequences are | :05:59. | :06:05. | |
more meant is not only for the UK but for Europe cause there is | :06:06. | :06:11. | |
obviously Catalonia but also in the delegation is going to Europe next | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
week, you have a delegation going to Texas. Did you know there was such a | :06:18. | :06:25. | |
thing as the Texas National Movement. When the Scots school and | :06:26. | :06:33. | |
falls on the 18th of September, it is not only about politics and | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
bearing a grudge against the anguish or David Cameron, they have a | :06:40. | :06:44. | |
responsibility not only to history but Europe and the world. But let's | :06:45. | :07:04. | |
stay in Europe. The Basques, Britain's `` Bretons. I'm not even | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
sure it would be good for Europe. Do we want to be atomised? I don't | :07:10. | :07:17. | |
think we want that. I think it has potentially cataclysmic to use a | :07:18. | :07:28. | |
strong word, consequences. I am not really worried about the | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
outcome of this separation on Europe. | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
You are the only one. There are others like | :07:38. | :07:45. | |
Czechoslovakia. We know also that in Serbia the same thing happens, in | :07:46. | :07:50. | |
Yugoslavia and we didn't see that reaction. What amazes me is wider | :07:51. | :07:56. | |
political elite, why Westminster left it too late. Suddenly we three | :07:57. | :08:04. | |
the sea `` suddenly we see the three main party leaders coming to | :08:05. | :08:06. | |
Scotland. At henge tone one opinion poll which | :08:07. | :08:12. | |
was looking as if it was moving towards a Yes vote. As this all | :08:13. | :08:19. | |
henge tone one, perhaps erroneous, opinion poll? | :08:20. | :08:22. | |
We are supposed to be one of the most sophisticated countries in the | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
world. So where are those think tanks to protect these kind of | :08:29. | :08:33. | |
things? Why did it not move earlier, two years ago, one year | :08:34. | :08:41. | |
ago, why now in the last two weeks? It should have no been obvious. I | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
know it was triggered by that Paul but all the ingredients were there | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
from the very beginning. Let's bring Kevin back in. | :08:50. | :08:56. | |
I think he is absolutely correct. The site of the three main leaders | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
of the Unionist parties all of a sudden coming north and promising | :09:02. | :09:08. | |
different types of more devolved powers simply smacked of panic and | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
looked extremely condescending. To go back to an earlier point, | :09:13. | :09:19. | |
Scotland, in its history, has been European`looking for several hundred | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
years. While England was building its empire, and I note there were | :09:25. | :09:30. | |
Scots involved in the empire building process, Scotland was | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
trading with lots of European countries and in South America and | :09:34. | :09:36. | |
Africa. We were building relationships and have been doing so | :09:37. | :09:41. | |
with Europe for several hundred years. If there is to be an | :09:42. | :09:45. | |
independent Scotland, one of the first priorities will be to make | :09:46. | :09:51. | |
moves to join Europe. A lot of Scots, while being proud Scots, are | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
also happy to be defined as members of the European community as well, | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
perhaps more so than is the case in England. | :10:01. | :10:06. | |
Westminster leaders were trapped. Just imagine the furore if they | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
hadn't gone to Scotland. They had to go and campaign but then they get | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
called condescending. I think they had no choice but to go in lights of | :10:15. | :10:20. | |
those polls. Why add a personal `` promising more | :10:21. | :10:28. | |
powers for the Scottish parliament? White and they do this two years | :10:29. | :10:30. | |
ago? We will find out this time next year | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
when I'm sure with will be talking about it again. | :10:37. | :10:40. | |
I want to move on because President Obama made clear that America would | :10:41. | :10:52. | |
be bombing Isis positions. You travelled to Jordan and met some of | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
the movers and shakers behind that group. How did you do it, how did | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
you meet them? I am writing a book know about the | :11:04. | :11:15. | |
Islamic State. The question is, whether the American coalition is | :11:16. | :11:25. | |
going to degrade the Islamic State. As he going to destroy it, as he | :11:26. | :11:31. | |
promised, and what will be the consequences? What will happen to | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
the region? I believe President Obama made a mistake when he | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
excluded Syria and Iran from this question coalition. Those people | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
know what they want to achieve and it seems now that there is a huge | :11:50. | :11:56. | |
miscalculation about them. They said we have got it wrong. We estimated | :11:57. | :12:03. | |
10,000 fighters and now there are 30,000. From my own sources, I | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
learned there are about 75,000 fighting under the banner of IS. | :12:10. | :12:22. | |
They captured arms from the Iraqi army. The latest American weapons. | :12:23. | :12:28. | |
We are self`sufficient on money. They got billions of dollars out of | :12:29. | :12:40. | |
ransom. They got mail money. They are extremely independent from any | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
pressure and they can last longer than anyone anticipates. | :12:44. | :12:52. | |
Who is behind them? Who is egging them on and controlling them? Are | :12:53. | :12:59. | |
they out of control? You know? They are not out of control. They | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
are highly organised and have people underground running it. There is a | :13:05. | :13:10. | |
great number of those people, especially the second layer of | :13:11. | :13:16. | |
command, that are ex`Saddam Hussein officers. | :13:17. | :13:22. | |
So very disaffected. The second thing is they come from a | :13:23. | :13:34. | |
group established by David Petraeus. The Prime Minister of Iraq | :13:35. | :13:48. | |
refused to support them so they were angry and let down. After they | :13:49. | :13:55. | |
fought and dismantled Al`Qaeda, they were degraded and so joined the | :13:56. | :14:00. | |
Islamic State. Are just acting out of revenge and | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
bitterness? Yes, and because they were ignored | :14:05. | :14:10. | |
and marginalised completely and there was no place for them in the | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
new Iraq. They were completely ignored and sidelined and are now | :14:16. | :14:21. | |
going from one extreme to another. I want to bring Kevin and from | :14:22. | :14:28. | |
Scotland. What do you make of this? I want to congratulate you on | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
getting that excellent interview. You have to treat with a certain | :14:34. | :14:41. | |
amount of caution President Obama's plans to bomb and use air strikes. | :14:42. | :14:49. | |
The report coming from inside the Free Syrian Army, who oppose both | :14:50. | :15:05. | |
President Assad and IS is that they know what is happening on the ground | :15:06. | :15:13. | |
and they claim that IS now the bolt holes to go to in the event of your | :15:14. | :15:20. | |
strikes happening. The Free Syrian Army are losing morale and losing | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
their own fighters to IS because IS can provide them with homes, | :15:26. | :15:31. | |
shelter, money and food. What they require is more support on the | :15:32. | :15:35. | |
ground to help them not only overthrow the Assad regime but also | :15:36. | :15:44. | |
to fight IS. Air strikes sound great and they could be devastating but | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
they may actually have unintended consequences. | :15:49. | :15:53. | |
In terms of the British position, and whether Cameron backs military | :15:54. | :16:00. | |
action of any sort the on what is already done, I think it depends on | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
President Obama. Partly his own authority after the referendum this | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
week, that is why this referendum affects everything. And partly the | :16:12. | :16:16. | |
mood of Parliament at that particular time. There is some | :16:17. | :16:21. | |
evidence that the House of Commons is willing to endorse military | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
action in this case but he has to be absolutely sure. There are lots of | :16:27. | :16:33. | |
conditions, irrespective of the virtues or otherwise of doing this, | :16:34. | :16:38. | |
for Cameron to calculate before taking Britain into this. On your | :16:39. | :16:47. | |
assessment of around 80,000 military fighters for IS, is that something | :16:48. | :16:51. | |
you are sure of order that you think your sources want you to know. | :16:52. | :16:59. | |
The Syrian human rights monitoring group, which is very reliable, they | :17:00. | :17:09. | |
said clearly that Islamic State have got these fighters. These are | :17:10. | :17:18. | |
well`known facts. The CIA yesterday confirmed that. They are now saying | :17:19. | :17:24. | |
that it doesn't and I believe they are wrong again, it is much more | :17:25. | :17:26. | |
than that. And most of them come from countries | :17:27. | :17:32. | |
like Europe. Kevin refers to an important point. | :17:33. | :17:36. | |
There is migration from other groups in Syria to Islamic State, simply | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
because they are stronger. They have got arms and they are now actually | :17:42. | :17:50. | |
considered more pure than it used to be, simply because the Americans | :17:51. | :17:57. | |
gave them a huge publicity from the bombardment, and credibility because | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
of the conspiracy TV that they were established by Britain, the United | :18:02. | :18:05. | |
States and Israel. So now when America bombs them, many people say, | :18:06. | :18:13. | |
if America bombed them, it means they are really good people. Lots of | :18:14. | :18:20. | |
immigration from the other groups to Islamic State means numbers will | :18:21. | :18:25. | |
swell up and they will be much bigger than many people anticipated. | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
You mentioned hostages and even today we are hearing from the family | :18:31. | :18:35. | |
of the British hostage who is being held by IS, and whose life has been | :18:36. | :18:38. | |
threatened. They have tried to make contact with the group. When you | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
were talking to your sources, was there any mention of him and what | :18:44. | :18:46. | |
might happen? What I understood from my sources | :18:47. | :18:50. | |
was that as long as Britain stays away from this conflict, as long as | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
David Cameron wouldn't send his war planes to bomb them in Iraq or | :18:56. | :19:04. | |
Syria, I think his life will be safe for the time being. But if | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
Britain... Why they executed the two journalists, they executed them | :19:11. | :19:17. | |
immediately after the American air bombardment of Islamic State | :19:18. | :19:22. | |
position. If Britain join, maybe they will take it as revenge. They | :19:23. | :19:28. | |
will say you want to join it, we will execute him. | :19:29. | :19:33. | |
What about the ransom? I know the government 's position is that they | :19:34. | :19:36. | |
do not pay ransom by the families try to make contact. | :19:37. | :19:39. | |
The family is absolutely right to make contact because they have a | :19:40. | :19:48. | |
policy. Islamic State actually made its income from ransoms. Al`Qaeda | :19:49. | :19:55. | |
did the same thing, even in Africa, North Africa, and other parts. They | :19:56. | :20:04. | |
make millions out of this capturing hostages and then exchanging them | :20:05. | :20:11. | |
for ransom so if there is a third party, it could be cat are, `` | :20:12. | :20:24. | |
Qatar, if the British government asked Qatar to pay a ransom, it | :20:25. | :20:31. | |
would be a happy ending but if the British bomb the Islamic State | :20:32. | :20:42. | |
position it to be a tragic ending. I don't think Britain can be | :20:43. | :20:48. | |
blackmailed into not bombing. Francois Hollande was the first | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
Western leader to go to Iraq, yesterday. He met the new Prime | :20:53. | :20:59. | |
Minister. The western Europe has two problems. You can finance proxys on | :21:00. | :21:17. | |
the ground. Because of what's happened in the last 13 years you | :21:18. | :21:20. | |
understand why Obama will doesn't want to send troops. It's a | :21:21. | :21:24. | |
coalition of countries that have to prove their worth. In the end it | :21:25. | :21:34. | |
starting a conversation and it will be down to every single country. | :21:35. | :21:44. | |
They will have to see whether it's in their interest to stop ISIS. It's | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
a dodgy coalition. I'm not sure it will go anywhere. We have all these | :21:51. | :22:01. | |
fighters. So many countries that try to change the political system so we | :22:02. | :22:10. | |
can stop aspiring jihadists leaving France or stop them from coming back | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
in Britain, to revoke their citizenship. If they don't then you | :22:15. | :22:21. | |
can't make them stay. It's a headache. It's a difficult one. You | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
mentioned the referendum and the power David Cameron might have. It's | :22:27. | :22:30. | |
difficult for the British government. It is. The British a | :22:31. | :22:43. | |
hugely factor. `` British hostage. If you think military intervention | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
from America and the UK is a recruiting agent for ISIS what would | :22:49. | :22:55. | |
you do if you were Obama? If I'm Obama I say to the regional powers, | :22:56. | :23:01. | |
this is your problem. Islamic State is not a direct threat to the United | :23:02. | :23:07. | |
States or Britain. It's a direct threat to Iran, Saudi Arabia. You | :23:08. | :23:14. | |
have to sort it out. We can help you with certain military ways, | :23:15. | :23:19. | |
ammunition, but this is your job. I think that is what he's trying to | :23:20. | :23:24. | |
do. You can't rely on last solving your problems all of the time. You | :23:25. | :23:31. | |
can't imagine how attractive this organisation is Chu`Young frustrated | :23:32. | :23:37. | |
people. `` is to young and frustrated. Now America would like | :23:38. | :23:51. | |
to use Syrian armed opposition to fight the Islamic State. It's why | :23:52. | :23:57. | |
people are leaving these groups and joining the next eight because they | :23:58. | :24:01. | |
don't want to be with the Americans. The Middle East now is a failed | :24:02. | :24:08. | |
state. Nobody can tell what will happen in wars start. We will leave | :24:09. | :24:15. | |
that topic because we will be back for that next week. I want to go | :24:16. | :24:20. | |
back to the referendum and put all of my guests in a rather difficult | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
position. Kevin, I'm coming to you in Scotland. Same question. What are | :24:27. | :24:30. | |
your predictions for the results on Friday. Will it be independence or | :24:31. | :24:38. | |
not? It will be a very narrow win for the yes side. I think it will be | :24:39. | :24:48. | |
a narrow win for the no side. I wouldn't put any money on it. What | :24:49. | :24:53. | |
do you think Mark a big no. That's been my position | :24:54. | :24:57. | |
from the beginning. Closely watching in Europe? Yes. | :24:58. | :25:14. | |
Hoping it will be a big no. I've been following this. The amount of | :25:15. | :25:20. | |
intimidation to the Scottish people, the economic scare, RBS | :25:21. | :25:33. | |
saying this, Tesco filling out. I think this kind of intimidation | :25:34. | :25:39. | |
which is shocking to me, this could lead to a very narrow win. The | :25:40. | :25:48. | |
biggest loser could be the United Kingdom. I want to thank all of my | :25:49. | :25:51. | |
guests. Thank you for sharing with us your | :25:52. | :26:03. | |
trip than your talks with Islamic State. We are back next week at the | :26:04. | :26:08. | |
same time. If you've been stuck in the office | :26:09. | :26:41. | |
watching the fine weather from behind the window through the | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
weekend the dry conditions continue. Quite a bit of cloud but when the | :26:46. | :26:50. | |
sun comes through it will feel reasonably warm but turning breezy | :26:51. | :26:52. | |
as we go into | :26:53. | :26:53. |