13/09/2014 Dateline London


13/09/2014

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 13/09/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to Dateline. I am Maxine Mawhinney. Today we discuss

:00:27.:00:30.

the upcoming Scottish Referendum and have an exclusive insight into the

:00:31.:00:36.

brains behind the Isis Islamic fighters. My guests are Steve

:00:37.:00:40.

Richards of the Independent, joining us from Glasgow Kevin McKenna of the

:00:41.:00:43.

Observer, Agnes Poirier of the French magazine Marianne, and the

:00:44.:00:57.

Arab writer and broadcaster Bari Abdel Atwan. Welcome to you

:00:58.:00:59.

all. First, there's just a few more days

:01:00.:01:06.

of campaigning before 4.5 million Scots vote to either stay or leave

:01:07.:01:09.

Great Britain. Whatever the outcome, huge changes are to come. Steve, can

:01:10.:01:15.

I come to you first. What are your thoughts?

:01:16.:01:15.

This week, President Obama made it Would he have to think about

:01:16.:03:00.

resigning? I think he will think about it. I don't think he will. I

:03:01.:03:09.

don't think it would add to the sense of crisis. There obvious

:03:10.:03:17.

assessor. `` there is no obvious assessor. One of the issues will be

:03:18.:03:24.

his future. His future will be near fatally undermined. Those are two of

:03:25.:03:37.

the many consequences that would arise from a yes vote. Thank you for

:03:38.:03:46.

joining us. Give us a sense of Scotland today. I would endorse what

:03:47.:03:56.

Steve said. This has electrified the country. Not a single village or

:03:57.:04:04.

town will not have had some kind of political meeting. No matter what

:04:05.:04:20.

happens. The country has caught fire with politics. Also community

:04:21.:04:29.

engagement. People would not have voted at Westminster elections or

:04:30.:04:33.

Holyrood elections and now feel they have a voice. That sort of

:04:34.:04:41.

momentum, organic is not easily stopped. Think there will be

:04:42.:04:57.

ramifications in some parts of England from people who previously

:04:58.:05:01.

felt alienate it from the Westminster model of doing politics.

:05:02.:05:10.

Even if it is a narrow win for the No vote, people will have been

:05:11.:05:15.

encouraged about what can be achieved by ordinary people finding

:05:16.:05:19.

their voices again. We are talking about people watching

:05:20.:05:23.

this, people in Catalonia are watching.

:05:24.:05:31.

Yes, but you cannot be half pregnant and you cannot be half independent.

:05:32.:05:36.

We have no idea about what will unravel if the Yes vote passes. As

:05:37.:05:42.

Steve said, if it is a marginal win for the No vote, I think Britain

:05:43.:05:49.

needs a resounding No vote so that it can move on. In any case,

:05:50.:05:54.

Scotland and nationalists in Scotland have won because they will

:05:55.:05:58.

get more autonomy, even if it is a No vote. But the consequences are

:05:59.:06:05.

more meant is not only for the UK but for Europe cause there is

:06:06.:06:11.

obviously Catalonia but also in the delegation is going to Europe next

:06:12.:06:17.

week, you have a delegation going to Texas. Did you know there was such a

:06:18.:06:25.

thing as the Texas National Movement. When the Scots school and

:06:26.:06:33.

falls on the 18th of September, it is not only about politics and

:06:34.:06:39.

bearing a grudge against the anguish or David Cameron, they have a

:06:40.:06:44.

responsibility not only to history but Europe and the world. But let's

:06:45.:07:04.

stay in Europe. The Basques, Britain's `` Bretons. I'm not even

:07:05.:07:09.

sure it would be good for Europe. Do we want to be atomised? I don't

:07:10.:07:17.

think we want that. I think it has potentially cataclysmic to use a

:07:18.:07:28.

strong word, consequences. I am not really worried about the

:07:29.:07:32.

outcome of this separation on Europe.

:07:33.:07:37.

You are the only one. There are others like

:07:38.:07:45.

Czechoslovakia. We know also that in Serbia the same thing happens, in

:07:46.:07:50.

Yugoslavia and we didn't see that reaction. What amazes me is wider

:07:51.:07:56.

political elite, why Westminster left it too late. Suddenly we three

:07:57.:08:04.

the sea `` suddenly we see the three main party leaders coming to

:08:05.:08:06.

Scotland. At henge tone one opinion poll which

:08:07.:08:12.

was looking as if it was moving towards a Yes vote. As this all

:08:13.:08:19.

henge tone one, perhaps erroneous, opinion poll?

:08:20.:08:22.

We are supposed to be one of the most sophisticated countries in the

:08:23.:08:28.

world. So where are those think tanks to protect these kind of

:08:29.:08:33.

things? Why did it not move earlier, two years ago, one year

:08:34.:08:41.

ago, why now in the last two weeks? It should have no been obvious. I

:08:42.:08:45.

know it was triggered by that Paul but all the ingredients were there

:08:46.:08:49.

from the very beginning. Let's bring Kevin back in.

:08:50.:08:56.

I think he is absolutely correct. The site of the three main leaders

:08:57.:09:01.

of the Unionist parties all of a sudden coming north and promising

:09:02.:09:08.

different types of more devolved powers simply smacked of panic and

:09:09.:09:12.

looked extremely condescending. To go back to an earlier point,

:09:13.:09:19.

Scotland, in its history, has been European`looking for several hundred

:09:20.:09:24.

years. While England was building its empire, and I note there were

:09:25.:09:30.

Scots involved in the empire building process, Scotland was

:09:31.:09:33.

trading with lots of European countries and in South America and

:09:34.:09:36.

Africa. We were building relationships and have been doing so

:09:37.:09:41.

with Europe for several hundred years. If there is to be an

:09:42.:09:45.

independent Scotland, one of the first priorities will be to make

:09:46.:09:51.

moves to join Europe. A lot of Scots, while being proud Scots, are

:09:52.:09:55.

also happy to be defined as members of the European community as well,

:09:56.:10:00.

perhaps more so than is the case in England.

:10:01.:10:06.

Westminster leaders were trapped. Just imagine the furore if they

:10:07.:10:10.

hadn't gone to Scotland. They had to go and campaign but then they get

:10:11.:10:14.

called condescending. I think they had no choice but to go in lights of

:10:15.:10:20.

those polls. Why add a personal `` promising more

:10:21.:10:28.

powers for the Scottish parliament? White and they do this two years

:10:29.:10:30.

ago? We will find out this time next year

:10:31.:10:36.

when I'm sure with will be talking about it again.

:10:37.:10:40.

I want to move on because President Obama made clear that America would

:10:41.:10:52.

be bombing Isis positions. You travelled to Jordan and met some of

:10:53.:10:57.

the movers and shakers behind that group. How did you do it, how did

:10:58.:11:03.

you meet them? I am writing a book know about the

:11:04.:11:15.

Islamic State. The question is, whether the American coalition is

:11:16.:11:25.

going to degrade the Islamic State. As he going to destroy it, as he

:11:26.:11:31.

promised, and what will be the consequences? What will happen to

:11:32.:11:37.

the region? I believe President Obama made a mistake when he

:11:38.:11:44.

excluded Syria and Iran from this question coalition. Those people

:11:45.:11:49.

know what they want to achieve and it seems now that there is a huge

:11:50.:11:56.

miscalculation about them. They said we have got it wrong. We estimated

:11:57.:12:03.

10,000 fighters and now there are 30,000. From my own sources, I

:12:04.:12:09.

learned there are about 75,000 fighting under the banner of IS.

:12:10.:12:22.

They captured arms from the Iraqi army. The latest American weapons.

:12:23.:12:28.

We are self`sufficient on money. They got billions of dollars out of

:12:29.:12:40.

ransom. They got mail money. They are extremely independent from any

:12:41.:12:43.

pressure and they can last longer than anyone anticipates.

:12:44.:12:52.

Who is behind them? Who is egging them on and controlling them? Are

:12:53.:12:59.

they out of control? You know? They are not out of control. They

:13:00.:13:04.

are highly organised and have people underground running it. There is a

:13:05.:13:10.

great number of those people, especially the second layer of

:13:11.:13:16.

command, that are ex`Saddam Hussein officers.

:13:17.:13:22.

So very disaffected. The second thing is they come from a

:13:23.:13:34.

group established by David Petraeus. The Prime Minister of Iraq

:13:35.:13:48.

refused to support them so they were angry and let down. After they

:13:49.:13:55.

fought and dismantled Al`Qaeda, they were degraded and so joined the

:13:56.:14:00.

Islamic State. Are just acting out of revenge and

:14:01.:14:04.

bitterness? Yes, and because they were ignored

:14:05.:14:10.

and marginalised completely and there was no place for them in the

:14:11.:14:15.

new Iraq. They were completely ignored and sidelined and are now

:14:16.:14:21.

going from one extreme to another. I want to bring Kevin and from

:14:22.:14:28.

Scotland. What do you make of this? I want to congratulate you on

:14:29.:14:33.

getting that excellent interview. You have to treat with a certain

:14:34.:14:41.

amount of caution President Obama's plans to bomb and use air strikes.

:14:42.:14:49.

The report coming from inside the Free Syrian Army, who oppose both

:14:50.:15:05.

President Assad and IS is that they know what is happening on the ground

:15:06.:15:13.

and they claim that IS now the bolt holes to go to in the event of your

:15:14.:15:20.

strikes happening. The Free Syrian Army are losing morale and losing

:15:21.:15:25.

their own fighters to IS because IS can provide them with homes,

:15:26.:15:31.

shelter, money and food. What they require is more support on the

:15:32.:15:35.

ground to help them not only overthrow the Assad regime but also

:15:36.:15:44.

to fight IS. Air strikes sound great and they could be devastating but

:15:45.:15:48.

they may actually have unintended consequences.

:15:49.:15:53.

In terms of the British position, and whether Cameron backs military

:15:54.:16:00.

action of any sort the on what is already done, I think it depends on

:16:01.:16:05.

President Obama. Partly his own authority after the referendum this

:16:06.:16:11.

week, that is why this referendum affects everything. And partly the

:16:12.:16:16.

mood of Parliament at that particular time. There is some

:16:17.:16:21.

evidence that the House of Commons is willing to endorse military

:16:22.:16:26.

action in this case but he has to be absolutely sure. There are lots of

:16:27.:16:33.

conditions, irrespective of the virtues or otherwise of doing this,

:16:34.:16:38.

for Cameron to calculate before taking Britain into this. On your

:16:39.:16:47.

assessment of around 80,000 military fighters for IS, is that something

:16:48.:16:51.

you are sure of order that you think your sources want you to know.

:16:52.:16:59.

The Syrian human rights monitoring group, which is very reliable, they

:17:00.:17:09.

said clearly that Islamic State have got these fighters. These are

:17:10.:17:18.

well`known facts. The CIA yesterday confirmed that. They are now saying

:17:19.:17:24.

that it doesn't and I believe they are wrong again, it is much more

:17:25.:17:26.

than that. And most of them come from countries

:17:27.:17:32.

like Europe. Kevin refers to an important point.

:17:33.:17:36.

There is migration from other groups in Syria to Islamic State, simply

:17:37.:17:41.

because they are stronger. They have got arms and they are now actually

:17:42.:17:50.

considered more pure than it used to be, simply because the Americans

:17:51.:17:57.

gave them a huge publicity from the bombardment, and credibility because

:17:58.:18:01.

of the conspiracy TV that they were established by Britain, the United

:18:02.:18:05.

States and Israel. So now when America bombs them, many people say,

:18:06.:18:13.

if America bombed them, it means they are really good people. Lots of

:18:14.:18:20.

immigration from the other groups to Islamic State means numbers will

:18:21.:18:25.

swell up and they will be much bigger than many people anticipated.

:18:26.:18:30.

You mentioned hostages and even today we are hearing from the family

:18:31.:18:35.

of the British hostage who is being held by IS, and whose life has been

:18:36.:18:38.

threatened. They have tried to make contact with the group. When you

:18:39.:18:43.

were talking to your sources, was there any mention of him and what

:18:44.:18:46.

might happen? What I understood from my sources

:18:47.:18:50.

was that as long as Britain stays away from this conflict, as long as

:18:51.:18:55.

David Cameron wouldn't send his war planes to bomb them in Iraq or

:18:56.:19:04.

Syria, I think his life will be safe for the time being. But if

:19:05.:19:10.

Britain... Why they executed the two journalists, they executed them

:19:11.:19:17.

immediately after the American air bombardment of Islamic State

:19:18.:19:22.

position. If Britain join, maybe they will take it as revenge. They

:19:23.:19:28.

will say you want to join it, we will execute him.

:19:29.:19:33.

What about the ransom? I know the government 's position is that they

:19:34.:19:36.

do not pay ransom by the families try to make contact.

:19:37.:19:39.

The family is absolutely right to make contact because they have a

:19:40.:19:48.

policy. Islamic State actually made its income from ransoms. Al`Qaeda

:19:49.:19:55.

did the same thing, even in Africa, North Africa, and other parts. They

:19:56.:20:04.

make millions out of this capturing hostages and then exchanging them

:20:05.:20:11.

for ransom so if there is a third party, it could be cat are, ``

:20:12.:20:24.

Qatar, if the British government asked Qatar to pay a ransom, it

:20:25.:20:31.

would be a happy ending but if the British bomb the Islamic State

:20:32.:20:42.

position it to be a tragic ending. I don't think Britain can be

:20:43.:20:48.

blackmailed into not bombing. Francois Hollande was the first

:20:49.:20:52.

Western leader to go to Iraq, yesterday. He met the new Prime

:20:53.:20:59.

Minister. The western Europe has two problems. You can finance proxys on

:21:00.:21:17.

the ground. Because of what's happened in the last 13 years you

:21:18.:21:20.

understand why Obama will doesn't want to send troops. It's a

:21:21.:21:24.

coalition of countries that have to prove their worth. In the end it

:21:25.:21:34.

starting a conversation and it will be down to every single country.

:21:35.:21:44.

They will have to see whether it's in their interest to stop ISIS. It's

:21:45.:21:50.

a dodgy coalition. I'm not sure it will go anywhere. We have all these

:21:51.:22:01.

fighters. So many countries that try to change the political system so we

:22:02.:22:10.

can stop aspiring jihadists leaving France or stop them from coming back

:22:11.:22:14.

in Britain, to revoke their citizenship. If they don't then you

:22:15.:22:21.

can't make them stay. It's a headache. It's a difficult one. You

:22:22.:22:26.

mentioned the referendum and the power David Cameron might have. It's

:22:27.:22:30.

difficult for the British government. It is. The British a

:22:31.:22:43.

hugely factor. `` British hostage. If you think military intervention

:22:44.:22:48.

from America and the UK is a recruiting agent for ISIS what would

:22:49.:22:55.

you do if you were Obama? If I'm Obama I say to the regional powers,

:22:56.:23:01.

this is your problem. Islamic State is not a direct threat to the United

:23:02.:23:07.

States or Britain. It's a direct threat to Iran, Saudi Arabia. You

:23:08.:23:14.

have to sort it out. We can help you with certain military ways,

:23:15.:23:19.

ammunition, but this is your job. I think that is what he's trying to

:23:20.:23:24.

do. You can't rely on last solving your problems all of the time. You

:23:25.:23:31.

can't imagine how attractive this organisation is Chu`Young frustrated

:23:32.:23:37.

people. `` is to young and frustrated. Now America would like

:23:38.:23:51.

to use Syrian armed opposition to fight the Islamic State. It's why

:23:52.:23:57.

people are leaving these groups and joining the next eight because they

:23:58.:24:01.

don't want to be with the Americans. The Middle East now is a failed

:24:02.:24:08.

state. Nobody can tell what will happen in wars start. We will leave

:24:09.:24:15.

that topic because we will be back for that next week. I want to go

:24:16.:24:20.

back to the referendum and put all of my guests in a rather difficult

:24:21.:24:26.

position. Kevin, I'm coming to you in Scotland. Same question. What are

:24:27.:24:30.

your predictions for the results on Friday. Will it be independence or

:24:31.:24:38.

not? It will be a very narrow win for the yes side. I think it will be

:24:39.:24:48.

a narrow win for the no side. I wouldn't put any money on it. What

:24:49.:24:53.

do you think Mark a big no. That's been my position

:24:54.:24:57.

from the beginning. Closely watching in Europe? Yes.

:24:58.:25:14.

Hoping it will be a big no. I've been following this. The amount of

:25:15.:25:20.

intimidation to the Scottish people, the economic scare, RBS

:25:21.:25:33.

saying this, Tesco filling out. I think this kind of intimidation

:25:34.:25:39.

which is shocking to me, this could lead to a very narrow win. The

:25:40.:25:48.

biggest loser could be the United Kingdom. I want to thank all of my

:25:49.:25:51.

guests. Thank you for sharing with us your

:25:52.:26:03.

trip than your talks with Islamic State. We are back next week at the

:26:04.:26:08.

same time. If you've been stuck in the office

:26:09.:26:41.

watching the fine weather from behind the window through the

:26:42.:26:45.

weekend the dry conditions continue. Quite a bit of cloud but when the

:26:46.:26:50.

sun comes through it will feel reasonably warm but turning breezy

:26:51.:26:52.

as we go into

:26:53.:26:53.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS