28/11/2015 Dateline London


28/11/2015

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Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

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Britain's decision on whether to bomb in Syria, after Turkey

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is Britain's Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn,

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capable of leading his own Labour Party in parliament?

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TaMichael Goldfarb of Politico Europe, Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg

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News, Amir Taheri, who is an Iranian writer, and

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There is no more difficult or important decision for a politician

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than that which puts human lives in danger by going to war.

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David Cameron tried in 2013 to encourage British Members

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of Parliament to vote to bomb Syria, meaning the forces of

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Now he is trying to bomb Syria again, but this time the target is

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What would success look like in this enterprise?

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In the case for British military intervention?

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No, because he did not answer one of the questions that you just posed.

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He did not really clarify what happens after the bombing. He is in

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the position where he accepts that the bombing himself will not remove

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Isis, whatever remove precisely means, that growing troops will be

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involved, and he leaps from what he regards as the legitimate case for

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bombing to the installation of a moderate Syrian government who would

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provide the boots on the ground. The explanation of how we get from a to

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B is more vague than anything Tony Blair said in advance of the war in

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Iraq. It makes his objective seem clear compared to this. You point to

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the other incoherent element of all this, to three years ago he wanted

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to bomb targets associated with President Assad. Now he wants to

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bomb one of Assad's internal enemies in presumably short-term alliance

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with Britain and Assad, before trying to remove Assad. The whole

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thing is a complete mess. Could you see that bombing Islamic State is

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not the same as intervening in Libya or Iraq which was a decapitation

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strategy to change the regime. These are bad people who do bad things,

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and they are a threat to us. Yes, who would disagree with that? Or

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that Saddam was a deeply awful tyrant in Iraq? But that is the easy

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bit, agreeing on that. How you deal with them is nightmarishly

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complicated. All we can say so far is the evidence of these Western

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interventions of various forms, including the latest bombing, the

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situation in the region worsens, the global threat seems to worsen. You

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will ask what we should be doing, and, I haven't got an answer. The

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evidence suggests that what is happening is not working and that

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this bombing strategy has not been thought through beyond France seem

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to Britain, join in, and David Cameron saying, I think we should.

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The first time, a quick question, how big a force is he talking

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about? Very small. We could save police action against a group of

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criminal thugs rather than war. One of the things, a quick aside, there

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is this talk of war like when we went into Iraq with divisions, this

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is not what we're talking about. Plus the UK is already involved in

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aiding in Iraq. I was in Kurdish Iraq in September and spoke to a

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translator on the front line. He is a kid who lives in Middlesbrough but

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speaks Kurdish as well as English so he was working. It is not the same

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thing. The big problem, nobody has figured out how to cut this, there

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is a timeline here. I do not see how advocating coming in on the side of

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the free Syrian Army three years ago and the bombing now in what seems to

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be in support of the Assad regime, it does not bother me in particular

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because you have to realise that the whole country is a complete mess,

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and I think you have to take a series of short-term decisions. The

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deeper question is, how long do you allow Isis to carry on? And do you

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need to find a solution to the Assad problem before you get into a heavy

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military situation? Project loggerheads with our allies in

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struggle, it would seem, that is the Russians. More importantly, it puts

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us in conflict with the Turks, because one effective force against

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Assad, one thing we can say, if you press back on Isis, whatever you

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want to call them, on the ground, they tend to give ground because

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they are just not in a position. The Kurds have been able to seize back

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territory. The problem is that the Turks do not wonder that, and they

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do not want that in Iraqi Kurdistan hi there, so it is not so much the

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Russians, it is the Turks, we need to keep them on side because week to

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fly from their. Stephanie? I struggle with this because any

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solution to the Syrian water will be solution to the Syrian water will be

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messy and protracted and will take time. I am not satisfied that those

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who are against Syrian air strikes have a coherent idea of how to

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address Daesh, Isis, in Syria anyway. You stand back and do

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nothing? Seems to be the alternative that Jeremy Corbyn is proposing. We

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did that two years ago in the wake of these chemical attacks by Assad.

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There were not air strikes and Isis was allowed to mushroom. In many

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ways this reminds me of the Bosnian war. Another war that seemed

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intractable, that had divisions on the ground along religious and

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ethnic lines, and Syria is similar in that on the ground it is a defect

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or partition is operating, -- eight defect or partition is operating,

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and air strikes could degrade Isis to the point where an TIS Sunni

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forces, not moderate forces, but anti-IS forces, could fill that

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vacuum and group degrade them. Take their revenues from oil internally,

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because you cannot cut off their finances externally because it is

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being generated from the territory. Amiel, the role of Iran in this. I

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want to hear what you think. What is Iran's position about outside forces

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bombing in their neighbourhood? As long as outside forces are bombing

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anti-Assad forces, they are happy. Couldn't even brought his own food

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for fear of being poisoned. A wise precaution. He was repeating

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Stalin's move when he came in 1943, he did the same because he did not

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trust the Iranians. But at the moment Britain is hitting the

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enemies of Mr Assad -- Vladimir Putin is hitting the enemies. Only

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in theory. He has not done anything against so-called Islamic State or

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Isis. The problem with war is that war is like love, it is something

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that if you analyse it too much, too much analysis leads to paralysis.

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Isis or Islamic State, it does not control all the territory that you

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see on BBC maps. It is present, but there are 18 other groups with whom

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Isis trades. There is a fantastic book just came out detailing this,

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written by a Syrian who went there for a year and identified this, and

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these enemies want to be on the side of the winner. If Islamic State is

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the winner, they are with them, if Islamic State is the loser, they

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will go and kill Islamic State people. It is not the question of

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what is happening tomorrow I'm a do you have a plan, is bombing going to

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work? Bombing alone does work, it worked in Kosovo. It worked by

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persuading the Serbs, it worked in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Military works.

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The beauty of war is simplicity, whether you like it or not. If

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territory, they would lose whatever territory, they would lose whatever

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power they have? At the moment I follow their campaign on the

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Internet, I read their books, and I'm reading five of their books

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right now, I reviewed one, it is called The Management Of The

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Wilderness hummer the plan is to turn the whole of the world into the

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wilderness so that nobody is safe. What happens when the status quo

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becomes intolerable, you have to go and change that thing. The same

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thing happened with Thomas Jefferson and the Pirates in North Africa.

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They started by writing to the Pirates, let's reform Islam, you are

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believers, they sent them a copy of the courant as well, and it paid

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tribute to them as well. But stop attacking our ships, they didn't.

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Survey said a military expedition, they destroyed the Pirates, never

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heard from them again. That is the best case I have heard for bombing.

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Partly you make the case by saying, let's not ask any of the questions

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about tomorrow. But can I ask one question? Let's not question the

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whole thing to death. Dinner party chat and so on. Before doing this

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you have got to address some of the questions, and one of the things is

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that we have been told that this will only be one with ground

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troops. Who will coordinate that? You mentioned the 50 odd groups who

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might form some coordinated operation. Who will lead that? Sorry

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to ask the question, but... I hope it is a rhetorical question. There

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is no answer. Is a metrical warfare, everything is asymmetrical including

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the logic of the warfare. You could in theory do what the US did with

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Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which is the immediate predecessor of that, you

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can bribe local chieftains and then send in ground forces, you can take

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out the leader, and then five years later you have got Daesh. You cannot

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eliminate this incredible cancer which has located itself in the body

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politic of Islam. Why even define victory in those terms? And in terms

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of leadership, the biggest problem, this is nothing to do with Daesh,

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what we used to call the West is any position at the moment of incredibly

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weak leadership. Anti-banner people who are intelligent will say it is

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because he is weak and he dithers -- bomber. -- bomber. It has a lot of

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power, the US, but internally it is written. The EU is riven to the

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caller with economic issues. There cannot be leadership. And that has

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nothing to do with Daesh, that is the state we are in. The lack of

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leadership has contributed to this leadership has contributed to this

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problem. Barack Obama was mandated to remove us from these costly wars,

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and he has a hands-off approach, and that will not change. Leadership

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requires following, and people are not keen to follow interwar. We have

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entered a met -- MAs into which we cannot except. We have to reform

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specific and targeted. War is just specific and targeted. War is just

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aimed at changing a status quo. Changing the status quo means

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destroying Daesh, it can be done only by bombing. And the perception

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that these guys are losers, not winners, they sure these beards and

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the huge out in Western streets, they say we're winning everywhere,

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America has been fighting us for 18 months, but they do not say that in

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these 18 months have just bombed them 3750 times according to John

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Kerry last week in New York, where as in the first day of the war

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against Saddam they had 13,000 in one day. But... One sentence.

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Whoever takes up, there is a stat is cool but is intolerable for us, he

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has to go and change it, by force if necessary. But does nobody ever

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point out that if the idea of a caliphate were so attractive that

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would not just be a handful of people entering the caliphate and

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millions leaving Syria as is happening. People cannot wait to

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escape from ten mac. -- estate from Daesh. In the past there were just a

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few demonstrations, the British may be wanted to punish the Ottoman for

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their pro-German sentiments. You must read this problem not as a

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cancer, as our friend said, but as diabetes. You cannot cure it. This

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is why Susan Sontag said you should not use medical metaphors. Jeremy

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Corbyn's leadership. Read easier going? It is a really interesting

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moment in the history of the Labour Party, because to say he is

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culpable, those challenging him is culpable, it is the wrong way of

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looking at it. He has a fundamental view which he will not change, that

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this bombing will be a terrible mistake, which is in line with the

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ridiculous thought for many years. And he has a section of his

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parliamentary party who are out to remove him and support the bombing.

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arises in politics for which there arises in politics for which there

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is no solution. It is a complete nightmare. A lot of people say it is

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his fault, this is terrible leadership, but I cannot see how

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brilliant leadership will square the circle that he is opposed to the

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bombing and has a Shadow Foreign Secretary, a deputy leader who are

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in favour. It is becoming blurred by the desire of Liberal MPs to get rid

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of him, and this Syria issue is being used to get rid of them. He is

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sincere in opposing the bombing, and it is an interesting case of someone

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who has had the freedom of being on the backbenches to suddenly

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discovering that leadership makes you less influential in airway than

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as a weak and hardly non-backbencher because suddenly you are

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constrained. You cannot speak your mind. It is a nightmare for the

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Labour Party because there is no obvious solution. What I think is

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interesting is that even those Labour MPs who agree with him are

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not happy with his leadership on this issue and the way he has

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managed things in terms of rushing out this statement, saying he is

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against the air strikes without consulting or even informing his

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Shadow Foreign Secretary. That is providing even more momentum for

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those groups trying to stage a coup against him. Any situation that is

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without President in British politics, here's a war with his

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Shadow Cabinet, and vice versa, so in fairness to carbon, he did do

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that, but half the Shadow Cabinet were briefing about their position

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even before he had. -- in fairness to Jeremy Corbyn. They are

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in a way that is not sustainable. It in a way that is not sustainable. It

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member of an organised political member of an organised political

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party? And he said, no, I am a Democrat. You could say that about

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Labour. When a major political party becomes a joke, it is not helpful

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for their electoral chances. Even in the states, half the country thinks

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there are public and party is a joke, and the candidate, Donald

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Trump talks like a right-wing dis- jockey. Republicans will vote

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Republican. It is not the same with Labour, you have this new membership

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intake joining last May, and it seems to me that supporters of

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Jeremy Corbyn in the general membership, he's not playing to

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them, that is his constituency. The problem is for an opposition party,

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you have to reach out to others. And his entire career on the backbenches

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and was free to rebel against the leadership, and that was fine. And

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in 33 years, in Parliament, I have been here for 30 years, I cannot

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rumba him successfully persuading large numbers of people who

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disagreed with him at the start of the debate to his side. And now as

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leader he has to bring his Shadow Cabinet, and he has none of these

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necessary negotiating skills to bring people along. This sounds

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strange to me, you are surprised that Jeremy Corbyn is behaving as

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Jeremy Corbyn should. Jeremy Corbyn is Jeremy Corbyn. He has sympathies

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with countries that are against the United States, he has travelled to

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Iran, he was on the Iranians television for years, he thinks that

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US imperialism and Western US imperialism and Western

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imperialism in general has done a lot of harm to the Muslim world and

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so on, and it is time to do something else. This is how he is.

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Whether you like it or not, I do not like it personally, but this is his

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position. Jeremy Corbyn does as he should. If the rest of the Labour

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Party want to do something else, they should go and do something

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else, but they should not attack Jeremy Corbyn personally for

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defending what he has been doing all his life. His position is not the

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problem, it is the way he has managed the party. Instead of trying

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to muster support within the parliamentary Labour Party MPs, he

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has appealed to party members. And there is this fundamental

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disconnect. That is a revolutionary thing. Lennon says forget about the

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politburo, go directly to the masses. Years to deliver party

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members who do not represent the broad electorate. Labour Party

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members agree with him, and the parliamentary party do not. So not

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surprisingly, he appeals to the Labour Party membership. It raises

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all kinds of Shakespearean themes like loyalty, to whom are you

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rid of him cannot claim at the rid of him cannot claim at the

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moment they are being loyal to the party membership, as the party

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membership packs Jeremy Corbyn. Corp membership packs Jeremy Corbyn. Corp

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and is being loyal to his convictions but in doing so is not

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fulfilling one of the roles of leadership which is to keep the

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party together. However, how you keep the party together when it is

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split on something like Syria, it is impossible. In left-wing radical

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movements sometimes a leader comes and goes beyond the doctrine,

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therefore the movement is named after that leader, for example we

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talk of Leninism, or we talk of Maoism. Here we have Corbynism. And

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that the that you become a movement that the that you become a movement

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on its own, and Corbynism will be defeated in the end just as the

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other ideas were defeated. I wondered about the idea of jihad

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itself. This may be the dinner party conversation, but what would stop

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people thinking it is a good idea to go and kill other people in

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restaurants and so on? What would stop their mindset? I wonder if they

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are very similar to people who go to family planning clinics in the

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United States or should people in cinemas in the United States. Is

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something utterly wrong with these people? If it is easy, everybody

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for jihad. It is the duty of the for jihad. It is the duty of the

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Muslim authority to attack the land of the infidel at least once a

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year. And every caliphs did it until a Byzantine emperor stopped them.

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For 800 years there was nothing else. If it is easy, everybody is

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foreign. If it is more difficult, fewer people. But you always have

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liked the Russian dolls, one within the other, you always have that

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small final doll who wants to kill you because you are Gavin, not

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because you have done anything wrong. This guy must be treated, by

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police work, by military work, by intelligence work. Whatever you

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like. But if you make all your actions conditional on persuading

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Batman not to kill you, you do nothing. -- persuading Batman not to

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kill you. Years ago I made a documentary called British jihad. I

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spoke to a man who comes from Syria, and this is the funny

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thing... You can bribe them. That is why he lives in Lebanon. But what is

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amazing is that the same problems about the same small group, 20 or 30

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young men and they have all been penetrated, the security services

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know about them, they morphed into Daesh, some of them run off to

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Syria, somewhat a caliphate to go and kill in Iraq, whatever. If you

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went back ten years from that you would find another small group in

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Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Bosnia said, go away, we do not want to

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jihad here, we are fighting for our national identity. And ten years

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back from that in Afghanistan, it is a small group. We sometimes given

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far too much credit because once every 18 months it can come into the

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Western do something terrible, and I think we have to be careful not to

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give them too much That's it for Dateline London for

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this week - you can comment on the We're back next week

:26:10.:26:14.

at the same time.

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