03/02/2018 Dateline London


03/02/2018

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Welcome to Dateline London.

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This week, we're discussing

Theresa May in China,

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trying to increase trade before

Brexit, whilst trading blows

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with the European Union,

and even some of her own colleagues.

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Donald Trump delivered his first

State of the Union address

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at the end of his first year as US

President.

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He vowed to end the era of "economic

surrender in trade" -

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who does he mean?

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And is it a bad business

for the Middle East if military

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leadership is on the rise again?

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With me are Bronwen Maddox,

British political commentator,

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Abdel Bari Atwan, who writes on Arab

affairs, Italian writer and film

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maker Anna-lisa Piras,

and Stephanie Baker from Bloomberg

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Markets.

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In China, they were

calling her "Auntie May",

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but back here in the UK,

she's more an "Aunt Sally",

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the target in a long vanished game

at whom players threw things

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in an attempt to knock it down.

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Her absence from Westminster

was marked by yet another

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round of rumours suggesting time

is running out for her premiership.

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There was a toy that used to be

advertised with the tag

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line, "Weebles wobble

but they don't fall down."

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Theresa May doesn't, either.

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Why not?

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She was there for a reason, she is

one of a few figures, possibly the

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only one in the Cabinet at this

point that can bridge both sides of

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Brexit. Until it serves either side

to get rid of her, she is there. But

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she wasn't there this week, she was

in China for three days, and it was

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kind of muted. We had been wondering

whether she would use this as a

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chance to make a big, new Britain on

the world stage kind of speech, and

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talk about Britain after Brexit,

doing deals with countries like

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China and things like that, and she

didn't quite do that. She came away

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with 9 billion of deals and she did

give one speech on business but she

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didn't come out against human rights

or China's behaviour in Hong Kong,

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she didn't sign up on the other hand

for the big Chinese initiative. She

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gave them a bit of what they wanted

and not other things and somehow it

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wasn't the great ringing vision of

Britain after Brexit.

A bit of a

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missed opportunity?

If she wants to

reassert her leadership with some

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kind of big vision of what is going

to happen to Britain in the world

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after Brexit, this was the perfect

occasion, so why did she not do it?

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I think she feels very uncertain

herself about her future. As does

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probably the rest of the country.

The big question is why she has not

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fallen yet. I think the answer is

because there is no one else on the

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horizon that seems to offer a

stronger leadership.

That is quite

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telling that she is the strongest of

the options yet the consequence of

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how the Cabinet is sword divided is

that she is almost a prisoner of

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them.

Definitely she is not strong

enough actually to be a prominent

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leader of this country but what is

the alternative, what is the morning

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after? Suppose they succeeded to

remove her. I think Britain needs

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stability in this time in

particular. Going to China, I think

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it was a very realistic move. You

have to prepare for after Brexit. I

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know many people criticised her

because she did not talk about human

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rights. You cannot actually go and

look for deals with the second

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strongest economy in the world and

then the lecture them about human

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rights or interfere in their

internal affairs. I think she was a

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pragmatist. I think she is trying.

Maybe people say she is a dead body

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or something like that, but I think

the alternative would be completely

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obscure.

Interesting point about the

choice of going to China. We heard

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the former minister under David

Cameron, her predecessor, said it

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was good that she was going to China

because too many revisionist as well

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seeing -- were saying we will have

deals with New Zealand and countries

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like that. China is enormous.

It was

a modestly successful trip. She was

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seen to be out there... I think the

issue overshadowing the trip was

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this debate about is Britain in a

customs union or not or doesn't have

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a bespoke customs union? The

international trade Secretary said

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it wouldn't work to have the UK in a

customs union with the EU because it

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would restrict written's ability to

negotiate trade deals with countries

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like China. This nagging question

that face Theresa May, that she has

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refused to be clear on, what is the

sort of end state and what does

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Britain look like post-Brexit, it

continues to dog her everywhere she

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goes. The reason why she hasn't been

clear is because she's balancing

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between Brexiteers and supporters of

soft Brexit, within her Cabinet and

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her own party.

Other signs that

perhaps some of the European

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countries are beginning to recognise

the dilemma that she and the British

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government face? Perhaps there is a

desire that they're going to soften

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things a bit. Is any of that going

to happen when Michel Barnier

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alive... Arrives in London?

I think

he has been one of the main

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supporters of this kind of soft

approach. Countries are starting to

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realise that Brexit will happen.

Yes, there was unity, everyone was

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saying no cherry picking, no cake

eating, but now countries like Italy

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should be the first to open the way

to say, listen, this is going to

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happen so why don't we start being

more pragmatic and realistic.

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Because the EU could lose bit as

well as Britain.

Yes, countries with

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a strong economic bond with the UK

are starting to prepare the ground

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to say what if we actually will be

allowed to have our own bespoke deal

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with the UK? There are dangers in

this because the moment when

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everyone starts having a bespoke

deal with the UK is the moment the

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EU collapses, and the single market

cannot allow that. But there is a

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real sense that there is more

pragmatism, a favour for more

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bespoke deals.

I think it is right

that European countries are changing

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their view but I don't think that is

the message Michel Barnier will turn

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up with. I think he will be more

hardline.

We will no doubt be

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returning to this subject.

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The State of the Union Address

brings the separation of powers

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on which US democracy is based

to life in one place.

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Senators, members of the House

of Representatives, and the justices

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of the Supreme Court gather to hear

the President of the United States

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take the temperature of the nation

and deliver his manifesto

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for the 12 months ahead.

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Donald Trump, who in so many

other ways is re-defining

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what presidential means,

maintained the tradition

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and stuck to the script.

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That was Tuesday.

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On Friday, it was back

to the bear pit of US politics,

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as President Trump authorised

release of information alleging

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the FBI had misled a judge whilst

carrying out surveillance

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of his presidential

election campaign.

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What is the state of

the presidency right now?

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Yes, we have the full view of

American cable news. It reflects the

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deep divisions across the country

and in Washington which is now

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consumed with news of this memo that

Trump has authorised to be

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declassified, written by Republicans

on the house intelligence committee,

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accusing the FBI and the Justice

department of misleading a federal

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judge in their application to spy on

Carter Page, a former Trump campaign

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operative. The FBI director and

justice department officials fought

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against the release of this memo,

saying that the memo cherry picked

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information and presented a skewed

picture of how they went about

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getting permission to carry out

surveillance on Carter Page. I think

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the issue here is you now have this

unprecedented situation where the

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White House is basically at war with

its own justice department and its

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hand-picked FBI director. Trump

picked Christopher Ray, the FBI

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director, he picked Jeff Sessions

and Rod Rosenstein.

And they'll came

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in after the election so they can't

be blamed.

We haven't seen a split

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like this since the Nixon era,

Watergate, really. And so people are

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saying it is trying to undermine the

FBI and the Russian investigation,

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whether Trump's campaign colluded

with Russia. The Republicans are

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saying it shows that there FBI is

politicised and cannot be trusted.

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It is remarkable that you have the

Republican Party, the party of law

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and order, attacking the

intelligence agencies and feeding

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into this conspiracy theory. The

memo doesn't show that the FBI

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cannot respond without revealing

sources and methods. They can't say

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they didn't just rely on this

dossier written by a former British

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spy, which had been paid for by the

Democratic party. Because they would

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reveal sources and methods. The FBI

got intelligence from British and

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Dutch intelligence agencies and that

started the FBI investigation into

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Russia. And as a result of another

Trump campaign operative George

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Papadopoulos. Carter Page had been

under the FBI's watch three years.

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-- four years -- for a number of

years. I think it is disheartening.

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The Democrats want to release their

own memo in response. When I read

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this memo I asked is that it? It is

three and a half pages. I later read

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that James Qaumi thought the same

thing. It is pretty thin stuff. --

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James McAvoy one.

It

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cut the president could change the

narrative.

Nothing about this is

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good for him. There is less in this

particular memo then you might

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think. He needs to get the focus

onto the economy, wages, jobs. It is

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interesting that at first he was

quick presidential at the state of

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the union address. We had about 48

hours and then all of this descends.

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This is the normality for the Trump

presidency. The constant fighting.

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The Republicans are broadly taken

his side on this. So it is not going

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to split them away from them coming

up to them at the elections, they

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are not come to try to distance

themselves from this very unusual

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president. And so there is all that.

There is nothing about Trump and

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Russia that is good for Trump.

It is

midterm elections in the US.

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Everything must be seen through the

prism of the party battle.

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15 years ago, as the drum beat

of war beat louder ahead

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of the US-led invasion of Iraq,

the then US President

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and British Prime Minister hoped it

would be a catalyst for change

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in the Middle East, that their model

of democracy was what ordinary

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people were hungering for.

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Seven years ago came

the Arab Spring, a wave

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of protests that dislodged some

of the long-standing dictators,

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including those who seemed

to still be wearing uniforms

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under their civilian suits.

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Are the military men

stealthily returning to power,

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or did they never go away?

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The Middle East is a huge mess

nowadays. The people now are really

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starving. The problem is when the

people seven years ago went into the

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streets they were looking for

democracy, human rights, equality,

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fighting corruption. Now the Middle

East is completely different. If you

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look at Egypt, a major country in

the Middle East, now it is ruled by

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a dictator, a military dictator.

Until the closing hours of the

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election, one hour before that, he

managed to find an opponent for the

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elections.

Making the point that for

democracy elections are necessary

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but not sufficient in themselves.

He

is looking for a scarecrow. The

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reaction among the people is very

muted. You cannot see a very

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aggressive reaction. Why? 40% of the

people in the Middle East are under

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the poverty line. Less than $2 per

day. People are looking for food.

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Seven years ago we witnessed an Arab

Spring for democracy. Now we are

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actually on the edge of a hunger

spring. People will revolt for food.

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The entire area, everything seems to

be going really badly wrong. There

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are a number of interlocked and

interconnected crises which are

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going to degenerate in the years to

come. That is why it is very very

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urgent in my view, and it is a

subject of a film I have spent some

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time on for the past two years, to

pay more attention to the global

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strategy of the EU, because what we

need to do is stop looking country

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by country and try to have a

strategy for the region. What has

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happened in Tunisia has been

interesting. There has been massive

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investment in civil society and

especially in women. People spoke of

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Tunisia as the one bright spot in

the Arab Spring. There is not the

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same kind of strategy for the rest

of the region. So we see the

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multiple collision of sectarian

violence.

To Lizzie was a successful

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example but what can you do if your

neighbour is Libya for example? A

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failed state and a lot of militias

fighting each other. And when you

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have a million unemployed people,

Libya used to absorb 50% of them,

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now half of weddings are outside

their country looking for jobs. --

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half of Libyans.

The European Union

has proposed strategies but

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countries are competing with each

other, having diverging economic

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interests and so you could

perpetrate chaos like in Libya.

It

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is not like the region has been

without European and American

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attention for years. It might not

thank us for that attention. You

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have the economic unravelling you

have described, which with all the

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consequences of hunger and migration

and all these things. And you have a

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lot of sectarian conflict, one group

against another, which demonstrates

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how hard it is to stop the winner

taking it all.

The economy needs

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stability. If you have at least five

failed states in the Middle East, a

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war in Yemen, Libya, Syria, how can

you have proper economic growth and

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find jobs for people? This is the

dilemma. And so they need to promote

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peace before economy or anything

else. You need the infrastructure

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for the economy to be established.

If you compare Egypt and to Lizzie,

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you can compare the Western response

to both countries. Tunisia has

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embraced democracy and elections

more forcefully. It struggled much

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more economically. It has been

supported by the IMF. But the

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conditions imposed by the IMF on the

loans have resulted in austerity

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which has resulted in widespread

drug test and violence. The Western

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-- widespread protests. The Western

response is different in Egypt. I

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don't think Obama was effective in

his strategy at Trump is perhaps

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making it worse. Abandoning US

policy towards promoting human

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rights. The Egyptian leader has used

the war on terror for as excuse for

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his crackdown. And you have Western

leaders either saying nothing in the

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face of this, or present Trump

calling him a fantastic guy.

What

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about other countries like Lebanon

and Iraq, which are democracies and

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arguably have a stronger democracy?

We have to make crucial elections,

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one in Iraq and one in Lebanon. The

backbone of this thing is

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sectarianism. These societies are

divided. Civil society is actually

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deteriorating. A positive note about

Tunisia, as I am the only man at

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this panel, I would like to say that

the woman into his ear actually

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played a major role to keep civil

society. I met the president of to

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Lizzie and he told me that he is

here because of women. -- the

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president of Tunisia.

He got a rough

ride a few days ago because of the

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levels of poverty you were talking

about. You were plugged into the

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foreign policy thinking in the early

part of the century with Blair and

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Bush. They were convinced that if

people were given the Western model

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of democracy they would jump at it.

Is it possible there are parts of

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the world where people feel more

confident in strong leaders however

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unattractive they become?

It depends

what state they are in. If their

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country is in turmoil, a failed

state, no food, maybe they might say

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that. I haven't come across many

places in the world where people

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wouldn't want democracy if it was

going to lead to a better life. You

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take Iraq. This seems to be the

mistake that Tony Blair and George

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Bush made. With a lot of the

American foreign policy behind them,

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they thought that bringing democracy

in Iraq would be fine, it would look

0:21:460:21:51

something like American democracy,

and what he got was a winner takes

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all. You got the Shia majority who

had been suppressed under Saddam

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Hussein suddenly finding they are in

the majority, running the

0:22:010:22:05

government, and they then clamped

down on the Sunni minority.

What

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about the model in Lebanon were you

say sectarianism is here and it is

0:22:180:22:28

real but they force power-sharing

with all elements represented.

If

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you can, it is great. But it is so

hard to get stable power-sharing.

0:22:310:22:38

Look at Northern Ireland, which

doesn't at the moment have a

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government. If you cannot, it you

have to say the thrust of the policy

0:22:400:22:48

in the last few decades is to

separate people who can't stand each

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other.

That would be rewriting the

map.

Sectarianism is the most

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dangerous concept in our part of the

world. It is how Islamic State,

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Isis, emerged, because of Sikh

Tyrian Iraq. -- sectarian Iraq. We

0:23:030:23:13

have to give stronger roles to the

woman, to Lizzie and success can

0:23:130:23:21

apply to other places. -- Tunisian

success.

In Libya there has been a

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very positive outcome in investing

in local administrations in civil

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society. You are right in saying

that we shouldn't find that good

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idea of redrawing borders. You

should remember that those borders

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were drawn very artificially at the

end of the Second World War.

And

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some of the other countries in the

Middle East at the end of the First

0:23:520:23:58

World War.

Local administrations,

civil society, these are things that

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need to be invested and much much

more.

It is hard from what you were

0:24:050:24:10

saying that now, whatever lessons

the could have taken from the

0:24:100:24:19

neo-con area in Washington, they

have to roll up their sleeves.

Trump

0:24:190:24:28

hasn't even appointed a permanent

Undersecretary of State for human

0:24:280:24:31

rights. There is just an acting

woman in place there now. His

0:24:310:24:38

message has been consistently that

his main concern is security and not

0:24:380:24:42

democracy or human rights. What

message does that send and how does

0:24:420:24:48

it encourage leaders to act? You can

say it is not like he is giving

0:24:480:24:55

blanket permission in Egypt for a

crackdown, but those messages do

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count. They realise that if there is

no application for the actions they

0:25:000:25:05

take, they feel a licence to go

ahead.

The problem is that American

0:25:050:25:11

policy is a huge shambles. Trump's

speech, he said, we will destabilise

0:25:110:25:17

Iran. We are going to keep our

forces in that part of the world, we

0:25:170:25:23

are going to stick to moving our

embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He

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is upsetting most of the people. How

can you have a stable Middle East

0:25:300:25:34

while the biggest and strongest

power has no human policy?

Thank you

0:25:340:25:41

all very much and thank you for

being with us.

0:25:410:25:45

Please do join us again next week,

same time, same place.

0:25:450:25:47

But for now thanks for

watching, and goodbye.

0:25:470:25:51

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