10/02/2018 Dateline London

Hello and a very warm

welcome to Dateline London.

I'm Jane Hill,

today we look at some very

tough talking in this

week's Brexit moves -

We wonder how long President Zuma

can survive in South Africa?

and as the Winter Olympics kick off,

what diplomatic benefits

could follow the

sporting endeavours?

My guests - The Times

columnist Iain Martin,

and the American writer

Jef Mcallister, Agnes Poirer

of France's Marianne magazine,

and Nesrine Malik, now a columnist

for the Guardian newspaper.

Welcome to you all.

The EU is having some problems

understanding the UK's position.

The Chief Negotiator Barnier didn't

pull his punches on Friday

at the end of a week of technical

discussions in Brussels.

He said a transition period once

Britain leaves the EU

next year isn't a given,

and that the UK decision to quit

the customs union and single

market means Irish border

checks are unavoidable.

The British cabinet minister

in charge of talks, David Davis,

said he was "surprised" by such

comments after all the

work that's gone on.

Iain, what is happening?

In the's attempted to leave the

European Union, and the Brits have

always been really good at comedy

and forests. Viewers will be

familiar with Monty Python. The

Cabinet is split. It doesn't yet

have an agreed negotiating position

in terms of what it wants to ask the

European Union for in March when the

next round of talks begin. Which is

obviously troubling the European

Union. The European Union has its

own problems as well, there are a

lot of moving parts in this. It's

turning almost into a crisis. But it

is happening. It almost one year to

go until Brexit. I suspect there

will be some deal at some point.

Britain is not doing its reputation

for diplomatic skill any good at the

moment, and it seems bizarre that

this close to Brexit the Cabinet and

Prime Minister, who is of course

under a lot of pressure, and under

pressure from some conservatives to

go, don't yet know that they what

sort of relationship they want with

the European union have to words.

And you think that is still the

genuine case inside the cabinet? Or

they don't want to reveal their hand

to the public or anyone in Brussels.

Despite the fact we have this

cabinet meeting where some of these

things were thrashed out recently,

they just can't reach agreement?

We

have to be careful of exaggerating

that, because the cabinet has moved

a long way since the Brexit

referendum in 20 months ago, so the

eye agreed that the UK is leaving

the European Union and single

market, it has to leave the customs

union, because that is in the

European treaty. There is an

argument about what nature of free

trade agreement they should try and

seek with the EU and if the EU will

allow UK to have such a deal. The

primary sticking point is customs

arrangements and whether the UK

signs a replacement for existing

customs union, something like Turkey

has, because Turkey is a member of

the different customs union with the

EU, or whether the UK tries to do it

all with a free trade agreement. You

would expect by now there are to be

a clear position on that, but as I

said, they have moved a long way.

The UK is leaving for probably a

much harder Brexit than might have

been the case a year or a year and a

half ago, so it has having a more

pure Brexit. On that final sticking

point, the customs union, that could

be where there is a lot of

parliamentary fireworks over the

course of the next six months. That

might be where MPs, because remember

that Theresa May does not have a

majority at, or only a majority with

the help of the minority party, that

might be where rebellion of MPs

brings the whole thing clashing

down.

Agnes, seems some in the EU

are considering changes

to the Brexit schedule?

It is nice to hear you who are in

favour of Brexit.

Yes, very much.

I

wish you were doing the negotiation,

actually.

We could put him forward.

You were talking about a comedic

forests, and I will try not to

laugh, because I keep getting

e-mails from people saying," stop

laughing whenever Brexit is

mentioned." Be pragmatic and

likeable Brexiteers but I know... On

the other hand, you can understand

were at the British Government is

doing and some Brexiteers like Jacob

Rees Mogg do so badly for the image

of Britain because friends of

Britain make me on the continent

don't understand what is going on,

really. One day we are Burmese to,

another day we are laughing our

heads off, and then we are in

despair. -- bemused. I think Jeremy

Corbyn would do such a better job

than Theresa May in terms of

negotiating Brexit, the cops he is a

Eurosceptic and a Brexiteer. He

long-stay party that is

pro-European, but he would do such a

better job. I admire Michel Barnier

in Brussels because they are keeping

their cool. If we look back at

December, Brussels helped Theresa

May saved face. They said OK, this

is fine, EU citizens will retain

their rates during the transition

period, we all move on to start

negotiating trade deals in March."

Which is again if we don't belong to

the customs union, then you need a

hard border.

Brussels, ironically,

Jean-Claude Juncker did intervene to

rescue Theresa May and the British

position, but it is worth asking why

that happened? A lot of that was to

do with pressure from German

industry. A lot of that was to do

with pressure from Jean-Claude

Juncker, who is of course a former

Prime Minister of Luxembourg, which

is essentially an offshoot of the

City of London. There are other

things happening in European

politics. Germany doesn't have a

Government.

And is... Michel Barnier

and John called younger, I'd be

keeping their cool or idea

deliberately so trying to remind

people that time is running out?

Michel Barnier and Jean-Claude

Juncker, I they keeping their cool

or are they deliberately trying to

remind people that time is running

out?

The Japanese trade senior

executives who went to Downing

Street this week, for them to put

their heads above the parapet the

way Japanese businessmen work, to

interfere unhappy because they

produce because that Britain makes

and half of those get exported to

Europe and if this goes to a

non-European Union arrangement,

those are a temper sent out at least

and some of these points move across

the Channel three times before the

end up in the car and you can see

how unbelievably difficult it is.

Gary Younge said the Brexiteers I

like the dog that chased the car and

finally caught it. They don't really

know what to do. They cannot drive

it. I feel that all this wrangling

when you're facing an entity when 27

countries each can veto what ever

they come up with. Even if German

manufacturing wants Elizabeth Morton

leeway, now they can get that. I

just don't see this working out.

It's a Michael shisha. One of the

main thing is that the European

Union wants and needs to have

because its budget runs up to 2020

and the UK as the second-largest

contributor pays £10 billion a year.

10 billion...

It is a significant

amount. You try at skiing German

electors at the moment to stump up

an extra £20 billion because the UK

doesn't get Canadian. I think it

will happen, I am acknowledging that

the Brits are making a mess of it.

The British system is like a school.

When you know the headteacher has

lost control and has no authority,

there is complete medal and chaos

amongst pupils. That is why

advocated street after she lost her

majority that the UK needed a new

Prime Minister, someone to set a

clear direction. I think there will

be a deal, but it is a mess.

That is

enough Brexit for now. Plenty more

to come in future weeks, thank you

very much.

Much to many people's

surprise, Jacob Zuma

is still President of South Africa.

He has refused to resign,

and hand over to Cyril Ramaphosa,

despite repeated requests

from senior ANC officials -

the parliament took the highly

unusual step this week of postponing

the annual State of the Union

address, worried about

protests and disruption.

Jacob Zuma has always denied

the numerous charges

of corruption against him.

Nesrine, you watch these

things closely, how much

longer can he cling on?

I am surprised he has been

challenged, because it looked like

until recently, he wasn't going to

go away, because he had so much

invested historical legitimacy of

the ANC. He has been at it for

decades and there were not other

figures I could match his historical

status. People feel that he

shouldn't just go, he should be held

accountable for crimes and

corruption. There is another school

that thinks we don't want to have

egg on the face of the ANC. This is

a man who thinks that the entire

anti-apartheid regime was invested

and should be allowed to go in

dignity. He was caught in between

and does not want to be tainted by

him, but also does not want to look

like he completely cutting links

with the history of the ANC. It is

less about him and more about

history of post-apartheid black led

politics in South Africa and how

people don't want it to be sullied

as a failed experiment of corruption

and how other people want it to be,

you know, a bat on should be passed

seamlessly and effort but play.

Jacob Zuma knows all of this and he

is sitting tight hoping that he can

negotiate the best deal, his salary

and pension and not give up any of

the perks and benefits. What

ultimately happens to him depends on

which one of these factions wins and

which Cyril Ramaphosa believes is

best for his leadership going

forward.

There have been so many

allegations of corruption for so

many years. Where are the voices

saying, "This is tarnishing the

brand?"

They are there and they feel

that for the ANC to be able to break

with this tarnished past there needs

to be accountability, but, like I

said earlier, there is also another

defensive group, which I kind of

understand, that thinks, "It's

corruption, but it is our

corruption, and we need to make it

go away quietly and not give other

people the chance to weaponised

Jacob Zuma's corruption against the

ANC."

1's corruption set into

institutions like this, he is not

the only one taking money and

usually there are genes and it's

certainly very top. Assuming he

doesn't get into power, there are

institutions fighting corruption and

it is a complicated country. They

are all trying to make it clean, but

I think it is Quinn to be very

difficult after the long history of

corruption for the next person, not

just for historic reasons, but

because argued with their hands out.

Think that is what Cyril Ramaphosa's

problem is now, because he doesn't

want to make it look like he is

sanctioning this system, which

doesn't begin and end with Jacob

Zuma, but at the same time, he

doesn't want to rattle the

infrastructure of corruption which

exists. He doesn't want to make it

look like... It reminds me of the

transition in Angola when he left

his position and handed off to other

people and Meacher that this network

of patronage and corruption... It is

a system of patronage and made sure

it existed so he could still

maintain his interests. This network

exists in business, economy, it is

one of the reasons why South African

economy is in such dire straits and

has been presented long time is

because there is this cabal of

business interests.

Also be trade

unions. The most troubling aspect of

this is the economic component. Just

look at the numbers, unemployment

above 25%, looking at the living

standards that have gone backwards.

If you get this tainted it happens,

then we all have to hope it makes

some kind of difference. He is still

going to be a former trade unionist

and businessman himself, he is still

going to be a creature of those

interests. Trade unions are

extremely powerful. The Communist

party of South Africa is a very

powerful Communist of that coalition

holding it all together. South

Africa needs radical economic

reform, market-driven reforms that

encourage foreign investment, it

needs reform of its political system

so that you have stability and the

rule of law and corruption is driven

out. The may well get office, but

good luck to him in terms of

changing that.

Does that benefit the

people, the politicians? -- the

population.

What will it take when

you look at those economic numbers

and corruption and the cronies and

those built into the economy. What

will it take for voters to try

something different? One of the

lessons of global politics in the

last few years is people when

tested, strings things can happen

and new forces can emerge and I just

wonder if South Africa is one of

those places where they might.

The

problem with the ANC is it is sort

of like the Muslim Brotherhood in

the Arab world, they have spent so

much time in opposition that once

the establishment was overthrown

there is nothing else. There aren't

many people that associate of the

ANC with anti-apartheid opposition.

It will take a long time for another

party to develop. It is a long

history of apartheid and who was in

opposition at the time.

I don't see

Jacob Zuma ever going to jail

because of that because he is such a

Smith operator. The next election as

next year and the heartbeat is

really for Cyril Ramaphosa and he is

going to negotiate something. They

are outsmarting each other, but in

the end...

Thank you.

stadium in PyeongChang,

as athletes from North

There were huge cheers

from the crowd in the Olympic

stadium in PyeongChang,

as athletes from North

and South Korea arrived under one

flag during the opening ceremony

of the Winter games.

Now, as the sporting

competition is under way,

the North's Kim Jong Un has invited

the South Korean President Moon

Jae-in for talks in Pyongyang -

it would be the first meeting

of Korean leaders in

more than ten years.

Jef, how should we read

this invitation?

Why not? It is pretty interesting.

For the Nord, it is a no-brainer.

They have their nuclear weapons, the

hydrogen bomb, the nuclear vessels

that continue to fly, why not appear

to be magnanimous? Why not make it

harder for a Donald Trump to do the

bloody nose attack that Washington

keep stocking about? Why not divide

South Korea from Washington and

Japan? It is a skilful thing and

doesn't cost anything. Trump might

try to take credit in his way. I

have been rattling my Sabre and know

something is happening, let's see

what happens. That is the deal-maker

of Donald Trump, and in fact there

is no solution to the North Korea

problem, they have the weapons, they

are not giving them up. There are a

lot of voices in Washington that

understand this, but I think that

makes as much harder for him to try

anything radical. Even if Mike Pens

is saying it is an evil regime and

we have to fight, fight, fight.

Mike

pence looked particularly

uncomfortable during that opening

ceremony, didn't he?

I have to say,

I am always very sceptical when the

Olympics and the IOC get involved in

a political story. It's one of the

most political and questionable...

Is the IOC anything to do with this?

North Korea will not listen to

Donald Trump, but they will listen

to the IOC.

LAUGHTER

If you look at the political

rhetoric at the opening, they even

had John Lennon's imagine at the

opening ceremony, I am weary of it

having a little impact. I think it

is ultimately about the sport and I

am not a great fan of winter sports,

but like what people, you do get

sucked into watching this

extraordinary display of people you

have never heard of watching these

amazing sports. It is somehow

captivating, but I do think there is

a legitimate claim that Donald Trump

can make about the fact that he has

kept the North Koreans guessing. It

does seem to have created some sort

of movement. It that it has

encouraged the north Koreans to do

do something, as you suggest, to do

something to their advantage. Its

movement that hasn't been made

before.

The Senate has been making

movement, bring this to our nation.

This man was elected partly on a

platform of trying to engage a

little more. -- the cap back says.

We think of them as very different,

but they are not as completely

alienate it from each other as

people think. There are families

split across the two countries. It's

not what you would expect. People

assume that the South Korean

population is threatened and annoyed

by this North Korean neighbour, but

it is sort of scene...

If they are

threatened and annoyed by the North

Korean regime, if you look at the

number of people at risk of a North

Korean attack, that is what really

drives people there, the idea of

having a lunatic dictator just north

of them with McLear weapons.

There

is fraternal gangsta between the

countries that people underestimate.

I think maybe Donald Trump can claim

that is something that he did. --

fraternal thanks thanks.

Maybe it is global people hating

Donald Trump and getting together. A

perverse motivation for all the

little people to get together. The

one thing everyone can agree on is

that they hate Donald Trump.

I am

not sure that is true for the

Japanese. One of the main is trying

to do is to help the Japanese, who

are understandably incredibly

concerned. He's worried about

Chinese expansion. He wants to

reassure the Japanese that he has

their back and the real dividing

line and the American fear is that

the South Koreans would be prepared

to do a deal with North Korea that

didn't have a nuclear question

addressed within it, because nuclear

weapons are in the North Korean...

I

don't think that we are talking

about Kim Yong, but for all the docs

that he is a madman added lunatic, I

think that was really clever. --

talking about Kim Yong

-- talking about Kim Yong Un.

the same week you have them parading

missiles in the country and then he

sends his sister to South Korea and

they are having kimchi together and

apparently it's a sign that

everything is going to be well. I

think we shouldn't underestimate

North Korea and every little helps.

Like you, I am not a great fan of

the IOC or winter sports. It is soft

power. The region and Japan, they

don't know what to do any more, all

those missiles flying over their

heads. Wait and see, but I think

it's a clever move.

Soft power can

be beneficial. It can be... A

sporting event doesn't have to be a

fig leaf, it can oils on wheels.

The

difficulty is, is an end to game

possible with the North Korean

regime the way it is? Will be be

willing to make any significant

concessions. They have gotten closer

before, you can see ways that it

might be possible and South Korea

would like to make some kind of the

deal, but the nuclear weapons are

probably off the table, because the

North Koreans are not going to give

them up. That is their protection

against Donald Trump and anybody

else who wants to do something about

it.

That means an international deal

is not feasible.

In the long run, it

is like Iran. In 20 years, the hope

is that the regime collapses of its

own weight.

The North Korean regime

is a regime like nothing else. I am

old fashioned, I am on the side of

the democracies.

We all are.

Right

now, we have to draw it to a close,

because we are all keen to watch the

Bobsleigh and the ice-skating. I

have two let you leave to consider

your enthusiastic viewing of the

winter Olympics. That is offer this

week. We do hope you can join as

next week at the same time. Thank

you for being with us.