17/02/2018 Dateline London

Hello, and a very warm

welcome to Dateline London.

I'm Carrie Gracie.

This week we discuss a British plea

on European security,

South Africa after President Zuma,

and the continuing absence of

a government for Northern Ireland.

My guests this week are the Guardian

columnist Polly Toynbee,

Dr Vincent Magombe of

Africa International,

the Irish writer and

broadcaster Brian O'Connell,

and Thomas Kielinger

of Germany's Die Welt.

Welcome to you all.

The British Prime Minister,

Theresa May, has urged

the European Union to sign up

to a security treaty to ensure that

cooperation continues

after Britain leaves.

Addressing the Munich

Security Conference,

she warned that if the EU's aim

in the Brexit talks was to avoid

cooperation then the security

of all would be damaged.

If the EU's aim is to

avoid cooperation,

Thomas Kielinger, is the EU's aim to

avoid co-operation and if so, why?

I have long given up to try to

figure out what goes on in the mind

of our leaders and this phrase is

totally puzzling. She seems to hold

hostage the British security

involvement in Europe to the outcome

of the Brexit talks, and she is in

no way to speak that language. She

must work for flexibility,

cooperation and so on. Any

intimation of trying to demand

something else is totally misplaced.

She is on a sticky wicket, as we

know, and there is no consensus. We

are still waiting, as was said

yesterday, for what the British

people really want, the British

Government rather. She is not

frustrated but curious. -- as Angela

Merkel said. Wells should be on the

huge of riding issue... We would

like a mutually agreeable agreement

on the Brexit conditions, until that

is sorted out there is no way for

Theresa May to threaten British

cooperation with Europe. Besides,

the whole speech about security is

beside the point.

So it is a distraction?

Absolutely a distraction.

And cart before the horse.

Very much so. The defence and

military issues are her first car

because Britain is deeply involved

in the defence of Europe and that is

uncontroversial. -- that is her

first card to play. When she is

talking about issues at the moment

do not believe our mind of what

needs to be done.

Let's open it out. Polly Toynbee,

the message that UK is a contributor

to defend in Europe and has

expertise uncovered on

counterterror.

Even extreme Brexiters want security

and Interpol relationship with the

rest of Europe. No doubt about that.

But even there she threw a spanner

into the works to think, ideological

league... They are so pragmatic

compared with us, the whole Brexit

conundrum is about British ideology.

To accuse particularly in the

context of security Angela Merkel

and the Europeans of this is an

absurdity and it bodes ill.

To be fair to her, she only said if

ideological... She did not say they

were ideological.

The question is, as G in this speech

said, which you may have done, that

she is willing to accept -- has she

said this is that she is willing to

accept the European Court of Justice

as an arbitrator on a treaty over

security? Across as one of her red

lines if she does not accept that,

it will not happen then. She must

accept with any treaty on any issue

whatever that there is always an

international adjudicator on any

trade deal wherever in the world. In

Europe it happens to be the ECJ. She

must swallow this.

And Brian O'Connell, as another

European looking in on this, do you

think the European arrest warrant

and Euro poll and all that can be

taken for granted, low hanging

fruit?

We should be able to take it for

granted and people's security is

paramount above trade and everything

else, but the tone of the remarks

probably betrays the level to which

this relationship between Britain

and the EU counterparts in this

negotiation have reached, they are

really poor relationships. You must

have an independent arbitrator and

it will probably be the ECJ anything

crosses one of her red lines I think

she will have to suck it up in the

end because she will have no choice.

You cannot go into Brexit without

some form of deal on extradition and

basic things like that, and cyber

stuff and intelligence agencies will

talk to each other anyway whether or

not there is a deal. I think the

tone is very illustrative of where

things are at the moment.

Obviously, your specialism is a

different continent, a complex

patchwork security, economics,

politics, as an outsider looking at

this?

I live in a European country today

though I am an outsider, so it

balances me what happens. I would

not be surprised and we will hear a

lot of this. What is happening is

mind games. I pity Theresa May

because she is like a tool that is

being used by both sides. One day

she says the bin to appease the

remainders and another date to

appease the Brexiters.

Not much to appease the remainders,

mostly people who voted Brexit are

appeased.

Tim Tams that is the problem... The

lack of compromise. -- sometimes

that is the problem. For the country

getting out of Europe, they need to

be friendly and welcoming to Europe

afterwards. If one of these days she

can just over say things that can

end up giving Britain a bad deal.

Thomas Kielinger, another thing we

saw in the last week was Boris

Johnson the Foreign Secretary

beginning that series of speeches we

now expect from British Government

ministers. Did that go some way to

healing any of this?

I am afraid not. There is a basic

and religion in his speech where he

says, friendly, understanding people

who voted remain have legitimate

concerns about the place in Europe.

Before he came to that phrase he

said it would be a betrayal if we

reversed the Brexit decision and

there is no way we go anywhere else.

He was quite adamant that not to

give a single inch. His offer to be

nice to the people who voted remain

sounded false. Basically Brexiteers

are still in denial of the real

problems they face. Everyone is now

using a bit of words that eventually

will not prevail anyway, so we are

in a moment when as journalists we

have a hard time taking any of this

seriously.

A lot of what she said in Munich is

probably for home consumption,

anyway.

The outcome will be a bunch what

ever happens.

Boris Johnson had the political

opportunity of his lifetime if they

wanted to show he was leadership

that are real. He started off by

saying, I want to reach out and I

understand the grief and pain of the

48%. Nearly half the country... Can

only give them nothing. Hard Brexit

all the way to come out of the

single market and Customs union,

absolutely no ECJ and not a mention

of... No detail on anything.

We will come back to Ireland any

moment but first an entirely

different continent to look at the

issues of South Africa over the

week.

After what seemed like days of

prevarication, Jacob Zuma resigned

as South Africa's president,

saying he still didn't understand

what he'd done wrong.

Cyril Ramaphosa now

takes over a country

with huge problems to solve.

Vincent, you watch

these events closely.

Can Mr Ramaphosa put

the country back on track?

Is he the man to do with the

enormous challenges South Africa

faces?

He is but he also may not be.

Explained.

There are two things here. Of

course, for the question itself, I

think you need to see it in two

ways. In one way, what is it for

South Africa? The other, what are

the implications for Africa? In

South Africa, Ramaphosa could

succeed but he is somebody who came

from the workers' background and a

millionaire, who worked with Western

business capitalists and succeeded.

Now, he needs to radically reshape

his own attitudes towards what

development and economic growth is

in a country like South Africa.

Does he have a plan?

He has a country and an economy,

according to capitalist ideas, but

he does not at the moment have a

plan to share that wealth for the

90% or so of people in South Africa.

If he does not, South Africa is just

not going to work. The other side,

for me, I think another side is more

important. South Africa is

democracy. To sort out those

problems is the obligations for

Africa... Look, I come from Uganda

and I belong to a pro-democracy

group called Free Uganda and we are

struggling in my country. The leader

was in power for 35 years, changing

positions to be a life president. If

Uganda and Sudan and Rwanda and

Zaire and so many of these African

countries... Trump used a very

horrible word beginning with less to

describe them. If we can learn from

south Africa about how democracy can

help us resolve our problems, it

will be... -- Trump used a word

beginning with S. To step away so we

can build our country...

That example of South Africa must

succeed in order to provide

something for the rest of the

continent.

It needs to succeed and it does not

succeed, we as Ugandans and Africans

from other countries, we are

watching carefully and we are

telling people like the president

that look, next is you and if we

don't have a dramatic graphic --

democratic process in which we can

change things, and we are going back

to the Civil War of the battles of

the past.

I don't know what you have made

about South Africa over the past

week. We now have the ANC damaged,

legitimacy in question by going for

a two elections in two years' time.

I saw the TV pictures of Parliament

yesterday when he made his speech,

his State of the union address, and

there was a feeling of such support.

I thought that was incredible,

because I did not think that when

this final week or two began that he

was going to be able to shift Jacob

Zuma.

Ramaphosa, one thing is that he is a

negotiator and he was influential in

getting this...

You know that game where you have a

pile of sticks and must pull one out

without the rest collapsing, it was

like that. And it is an amazing feat

to get to where he did, without a

drop of blood being spilled so far.

But he needs to now be a mediator

between, not between the political

classes and political leaders but

between the political classes, the

elites and the people. If he can

resolve that.

There is so much hope invested in

him. If you think that most of the

world will first have seen Cyril

Ramaphosa when he held the

microphone for Nelson Mandela as he

came out and made his first speeches

as he came out of jail. That is a

moment that anybody who was alive at

the time remembers. He is now

they're as the man carrying the

beacon for Mandela and his ideology.

It is whether he can rekindle that.

I must say it that... Remember the

mothers of the miners, he was one of

the directors of the company there.

He took the side of the employers.

He did apologise for that later.

He apologised but he is a political

leader and should have known better.

Now he is president of South Africa,

will he be on the side of the

workers and miners or will he be on

the side of business?

Thomas.

This reminds me of when he held the

microphone for Mandela, as Polly

said. The future of South Africa

rests as much as what happens with

the ANC that they can resuscitate

their reputation and what happens to

South Africa it self. The two are

essentially linked and we must see

whether there is a possibility of

the emergence of a new opposition

party.

Power corrupts and absolute power

corrupts and you need a significant

opposition to make democracy.

You do and the ANC will try its best

to clean up the Aegean stables, as

it were, but we need a second

political force in the country and

it is difficult in South Africa's

case because so much rests on the

mythological charisma of ANC and it

is hard to replace that.

If the ANC messes up this one,

within ten years we will get a shift

of power. It may not be strong

enough to take power. But the voters

could opportunistically combined our

forces to fight the ANC and they

would be in a different position

then.

Well that happen? It would

strategically make sense.

Depends what Ramaphosa does. If he

develops South Africa the way he

does business to succeed

economically but then radically

share that wealth with the rest of

the country, South Africa will be

better than Britain.

With the economy going, and it is

shocking that the growth rate is

only 1%, of a country that was seen

as one of the great powerhouses...

It is upon him to get the economy

back.

You say, unless he does that, there

is a division between whether he

helps workers or capitalism. He must

do both and kick-start capitalism to

generate wealth and redistribute as

well.

In the state of the union message

yesterday, it was about

accountability. If he is as good as

his words, he will be accountable to

the people, to the international

watchers and to political elites in

this country. It is important,

accountability is everything in a

democracy and we will see appears as

good as his word.

We shall leave South Africa now but

take that word accountability into

our next story.

Northern Ireland has been

without its devolved government

for 13 months now.

Does this matter?

Talks between the two largest

parties, the Democratic Unionist

Party and Sinn Fein,

to restore the status quo

have broken down,

and Westminster is reluctant

to bring back direct rule.

So, what happens next?

Brian, how serious is this political

mess, and how much does it impact

on Mrs May's Government,

who rely on the support of the DUP?

I think it is very serious and I

think it is more serious than the

press attention it has received in

British media anyway. It could not

have happened at a worse time, given

what we were talking about earlier

coming down the pipeline as regards

to Brexit. But where do they go from

here in the next...

First tell us what happened. What

was the problem? They got so

close...

They did get close. What the talks

fell to pieces over was an Irish

language act, which Sinn Fein had

been asking for three years, and it

goes way back --. Years and years.

It goes way back to an agreement and

it is not about who speaks Irish but

about recognition of the Irish

language and the same level as

English in Northern Ireland.

When you think about some of the

enormous challenges that these two

parties have overcome in the last 20

years to get to where we are today,

it is astonishing in a way to those

who don't follow a daily to think

that we could fall down over an

issue of language.

It is not bought my people have been

comparing it to, well, they have a

language act in Scotland and one in

Wales but Northern Ireland is

different. It goes back to the Good

Friday Agreement in 1998 when they

talk about parity of esteem, and one

of the things about that is the

recognition of the Irish language

and Scots Gaelic, the problem is

that there was a deal on the table

between the DUP and Sinn Fein and

ultimately Arlene Foster the DUP

leader could not sell it to the

grassroots because they were afraid

of things like road signs in two

languages and quarters for civil

servants seeking Irish... Which

Michelle O'Neill, her counterpart in

Sinn Fein and the other side of the

table, said, well, the draft

agreement does not even have that in

it.

It is a question of trust and

misunderstanding. But will they get

their?

They will come back to this and they

will have to come back to this

because they cannot move forward,

Sinn Fein will not allow

power-sharing to move forward until

this...

It is a problem of personalities in

a way? Because you look at these

leaders...

I think not, the problem is that it

is not clear it is in either of

their interests to actually run the

place. In a time of extreme

austerity, why do they want to be

responsible for schools and

hospitals and all the everyday

drudgery which aid is to run a

devolved Government under

Westminster, where Westminster has

screws to such extent you get

nothing but blame? There is not

really an incentive to either of

them to them to want to govern?

Who is to blame for the breakdown of

negotiations? Whose fault is it? Is

it the DUP's Fuld or Sinn Fein's?

You could say it is the DUP's fault

because it raises questions about

Arlene Foster's inability to lead

her party. You can also say Sinn

Fein should not maybe make such a

thing of it and everything else, but

it is important that the Irish

language act be important... But he

was the thing, to go back to what

you say, the DUP one direct rule

because they can then tell the Tory

Government at Westminster what to do

because they have direct rule. Sinn

Fein I think C in Brexit the best

chance they have had in a generation

to push the United Ireland agenda.

So there are much bigger forces in

play than the question of the Irish

language act.

Also a big issue of Ireland because

Ireland and Brexit... If the Irish

do not get what they need to get,

from these things in Northern

Ireland, they can just...

I just want to pick up with the

point from Polly, because you

said... Maybe neither side wants to

be ruling right now in this devolved

assembly. But where does that leave

the British Government? Karen

Bradley, the Northern Ireland

Secretary, says she considered

options this weekend and what are

her options?

Options are she will have to take

control and there is other option.

They must do what the DUP says

because the DUP is propping up the

main Government. We must remember

about the DUP that two thirds of its

members are these extreme free

Presbyterians, the Paisley founded

cult, and...

Cult is a bit strong language.

I tend to refer to religions in

general as cults.

It is the largest party in Northern

Ireland.

It is the largest party that only

0.6% of people in Northern Ireland

are actually free Presbyterians, so

they do represent something very

extreme. In the same sense that Sinn

Fein does not really represent

nationalist views either. We have

ended up with the two most extreme

parties who do not represent in all

polls what people actually feel and

where they stand. It is a

misrepresentation of the real state

of being in Northern Ireland.

Interesting, and what is

interesting, Vincent, in the African

angle, is that Cyril Ramaphosa and

we were talking about a month ago

first played a role in bringing

sides together and inspecting IRA

arms dumps. So is there a role for

outsiders at this point?

No, I don't think he will have any

opportunity.

I'm not looking at him because he is

busy, but is a role for any outsider

in the Irish question?

I'm sure the European Union, but in

terms of Britain and on... I think

the role of Ireland will be

something that matters a lot. As an

African, I will say something more

antagonistic. And this is a fact. In

Africa, since independence, and

before independence, the whole idea

of our survival has been fighting

for independence. And whether we had

this peace process in Northern

Ireland, which somehow brought

people mechanically together to be

run together still within the United

Kingdom, many Africans always have,

whenever we talk about Northern

Ireland, they ask me, but why

doesn't written just leave Northern

Ireland to go back to Ireland and

become an independent country as

well? An answer to why not? Because

that is a question of history...

That history is what rules...

The rule is democracy in that if

they voted to join the rest of

Ireland we would be out in a flash.

It is a majority in Northern Ireland

by consent.

But their condition and defined by

history.

It is not defined by history.

I'm not quite sure the South of

Ireland would be happy with that

idea of being stuck with the DUP. We

have been there and I'm glad we have

won there but now that is not a

viewpoint which will solve the

current situation, I guess, not a

viewpoint which is one of those of

the current players.

Alas I am much mistaken.

It is very much a viewpoint held by

Sinn Fein. They are saying, we

stopped the fight but we have not

stopped our struggle for

independence.

One of the most important part of

the Good Friday Agreement was the

South of Ireland gave up in its

constitution its demand an

expectation that the North should

join with the South. That was a very

important making of the peace that

both sides understood.

Around this table, we will all agree

that it is a democratic process.

It is and it has kept a piece, but

we must remind people we must only

think about future.

But going back to the paralysis of

the democratic process now, Thomas?

I think if you hand back direct rule

to Westminster, that is the end of

devolution. What is devolution

about? It is about self-government

and if the parties concerned are to

be in Northern Ireland unable to do

that, what is the future of

devolution in Northern Ireland?

I think the British Government will

be very reluctant to go back to

direct rule, and they would come

under huge pressure from the Irish

Government, massive pressure from

the Irish Government. At the moment,

relations between the British and

Irish governments are affixed on the

whole issue of the border and the

revelatory alignment and all that

kind of thing and the customs union.

And I don't think they will want to

put direct rule in on top of all of

that.

There are enough, but what is the

end of it? No direct rule...

They will go back to... They will

leave it for some weeks and come

back to the talks again and see if

they can get some kind of agreement

and go back to that...

What about the border?

It has made it worse and hasn't

helped but exacerbated up my

the

whole thing hanging over the

break-up of these doctors the issue

of the border.

That is coming down the pipe so fast

that one wonders whether they can

get agreement before the Brexit

thing happens. At the moment the

Irish Government is absolutely

adamant that the deal they came to

last December about regulatory

alignment, you know, if Britain

wants to leave the customs union and

wants to leave the EU they will

still have to have some form of

keeping the border open and they are

adamant about that. That is the

number-1 priority for Dublin.

That takes us back to the beginning,

which is actually where must end.

That's all we have

time for this week.

Do join us again next week

same time same place.

But for now,

thank you for watching and goodbye.