Part 3 Election 2016: Scotland

suppose it is compensation for the white paper in the constituencies.

That was where things were heading. It is great to see him elected to

the Scottish Parliament and Pauline back and Johann Lamont and James as

well. For people who will make a difference.

It wasn't, the Labour Party were predicted to take five. Nobody was

addicting to Conservatives in Glasgow. If you look at the

fronting, it is too retreads. No new talent emerging from the Labour

Party to take the party forward. Danny Wells is an atypical

conservative. Her mother used to be the domestic winner of performance

weaker of the House of Commons and here is the archetypal new

Conservative rift is time to bring forward. Quite extraordinary.

Congratulations to for being allowed to bid say that the talent...

It is not new talent. These are all Labour politicians who

have been defeated. Hang on an minute. It is good to

have people who have is. That is the mixture that brings into the

Parliament. Congratulations to them. I think you should say... We are

going to go, we are going to go to Glasgow to hear from Aileen Clarke

who is with one of the new Conservative MSPs for the city.

Annie wells congratulations, you are been returned on the list for the

kith, how does that feel? It feels absolutely amazing. When you walked

in here tonight did you think we would be having this conversation

now? Probably not, no. Not 100%, but there was always a possibility, in

an election, but it is an absolute dream. We should emphasise you are

one of two Conservative politicians returned on the list this time. Yes.

So the last time it was just Ruth Davidson, tonight it is yourself and

Adam Tomkins, you must be pleased with that Absolutely delighted with

the result. I think the result shows just how good a team we have in

Glasgow, and how much Glasgow is changing towards the leadership and

strength that Ruth Davidson is offering so it has been great,

absolutely great. Are you finding you are being listened to now,

Glasgow is a tough beat for you guys? We are being listened to more

this year than last year, that is all coming round, because we are

sending the right message out there, we are speaking to people more, and

people are listening, understand what we are about and getting what

people are listening, understand we are about. You said to me earlier

you are getting less doors shut in your face Yes there are less getting

shut in our face, more people are willing to stop in the street and

speak to you, passing you by they will say who are you? They will

still stop and talk. The result tonight we can see that Glasgow is

changing as well. So, obviously, you are very delighted about your result

but it has been a good night for the party It has been fantastic for the

party. Again, we are still waiting in the regional list results coming

out throughout the city but Jackson's win in Eastwood and

keeping Ayr. The biggest is Mundell winning tonight, so it has been

huge, it is new faces that are winning so that is ideal. So much

for you to be happy about tonight? Oh delighted, yes. And obviously bed

probably very soon! Thank you very much and congratulations once more.

Thank you. Cheers. Annie wells saying she is delighted, a dream

come true, and that Glasgow is changing in terms of its politics,

the Tories picking up two seats there. Let us cross to Inverness I

think. Dingwall. David Coburn is is leader of the Ukip. His party's lead

candidate, obviously you are contesting only the seats at this

election, David Coburn and we have only add that Glasgow list declared.

How do you expect your party to do? I just don't know. It is all

surprises. As you can see it looks like the unionist vote is trying to

remove itself from Labour and go elsewhere, it seems tobacco lesing

behind the Tory, I don't know we are doing at the moment. I am waiting to

see what happens on the list. I hope a great deal will come to us, but it

looks like it is a line up you know, either pro or against, independence.

Which seems to be a continuation of what is going on before. It looks

like the people, the Labour Party is pancaking. You have taken out a very

strong pro yuck position, but yet -- pro UK position, it is the

Conservatives at this election who seem to be picking up potentially

that strong pro union vote. We don't know yet. I haven't seen our results

so I can't possibly tell you. We await them with, you know, sort of,

with excitement, and although I have had half an hour sleep in the back

of a plumber's van, not the most comfortable thing to do. Until the

figures come out I can't say, but I am very happy we are not having more

Scottish nationalism or at least something is happening to change

things, or the Labour vote is definitely collapsing and well

deservedly the way they are behaving. During this campaign,

people in your party calling for you to resign, clearly infighting

remains a feature. Any chance that if you don't pick up seats you will

be way? Certainly not. The people, there was seven people who were

putting their, own personal careers above the party's who were moaning

because they were not picked. Well bad luck to them. They are poor

leerses and they have let down the party and let down the cause, I

don't think people will misthem at all. David Coburn, thank you very

much. One of those critics is the lead candidate in Lothian, we will

hear how he does on the Lothian list in just a few moments time. I

think... We have the declaration from Argyll and Bute. 29592,

therefore given a turn out of 60.98%. I Sally louden Returning

Officer for the Scottish Parliament election and Argyll and Bute

constituency, here by give notice that the total number of votes

polled for each candidate at this election was as follows. Cameron

Donald, Scottish Conservative and unionist, 5840.

Alan Reid, Scottish Liberal Democrat, 7583. Mick Rice, Scottish

Labour Party, 2492. Michael Russell Scottish National Party 13561.

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE.

The total valid votes was 29476. Reasons for rejections voting for

more than one candidate was seven, unmarked or void... So the SNP

holding Argyll and Bute, the former cabinet secretary, Michael Russell

re-elected as the MSP, with 13561 votes. The former Liberal Democrat

MP Alan Reid in second with 7583. The Conservatives Donald Cameron

with 5840. And Labour's Mick Rice with 2492. The turn out in Argyll

and Bute 60%. Very strong turn out there. The SNP with 46% share of the

vote, 26 for the Liberal Democrats, 20 for the Conservatives, and 8 for

Labour. The SNP vote is down five there. The Liberal Democrats up 14.

The Conservatives up 2 and Labour down 7.

So a swing in Argyll and Bute. SNP to Liberal Democrat, a 9% swing but

not enough to dislodge Michael Russell. He retains the seat for the

SNP. Let us confirm the details of that Glasgow list result. The first

regional list to declare. Four Labour, two Conservatives and one

Green. So Labour's Anas Sarwar, Johann Lamont, James Kelly and

Pauline McNeill elected. Let us see what happened in Lothian for the

list declaration there. For the Lothian region. The electorate total

list declaration there. For the electorate was 565860 votes. Total

number of votes cast was 327719. So the turn out for the regional

election was 57.9%. Parties standing in the Lothian

region received their following votes. RISE 1641 votes.

Scottish Conservative and unionist party 74972.

Scottish Labour Party 67991. Scottish Liberal Democrats 18479.

Scottish National Party 118546. Scottish Women's Equality Party,

3877. Solidarity, 1319. UK Independence

Party 5802. The candidates therefore who seats have been allocated are

and unionist party. and unionist party.

-- Miles Briggs. Alison Johnson Scottish Green Party.

Kezia Dugdale Scottish Labour Party. Gordon Lindhurst Scottish

Conservative and unionist party. Neil Findlay, Scottish Labour Party.

Jeremy Balfour Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. And Andy white

man Scottish Labour Party. man Scottish Labour Party.

-- Andy White man. Big celebrations for the greens among others in

Lothian, the Conservatives leapfrogging the Labour Party,

finishing with three seats, Labour finish with two but getting their

party leader Kezia Dugdale elected, and The Greens picking up the

remaining two seats, in Lothian, a breakthrough for them, not just

returning Alison Johnson who you see on the right of your picture there,

returning Alison Johnson who you see but returning a second Green MSP, in

Andy Wightman. In the centre of frame Kezia Dugdale leader of the

Labour Party, one of two Labour MSPs elected in Lothian, they had three

last time. And the Conservatives have finished ahead of them in this

election. Now despite the fact that the SNP got far more votes than any

of the other parties, because they have done well, they have performed

strongly in the constituencies in this part of Scotland. They get

nothing on the list. There is the confirmed result. Three

Conservatives, two Greens, and two Labour MSPs, in Lothian.

Conservatives, two Greens, and two Let us confirm the names. Miles

Briggs. Gordon Lindhurst and Jeremy Balfour. Alison Johnstone returns

with Andy Wightman and Kezia Dugdale for Labour re-elected alongside Neil

Findlay who served in the last Parliament.

Let us get Mid Scotland and Fife results. The electorate was 499093.

The total number of votes cast was results. The electorate was 499093.

291640. The turn out was 58.43%. The number of votes cast for

political parties was as follows. RISE, 1073. Scottish Conservative

and unionist party, 73293. Scottish Green Party, 17860. Scottish Labour

Party, 51373. Scottish Liberal Democrats, 20401. Scottish

Libertarian Party 650. Scottish National Party, 120128. Solidarity,

1049. UK Independence Party, 5345. Total number of valid votes. I

declare the regional member seats have been duly allocated to the

following candidates. First additional member Murdo Fraser,

Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. Second member Alec Rowley,

Scottish Labour Party. Third member, Les Smith, Scottish Conservative.

Fourth additional member, Claire Baker, Scottish Labour Party. Fifty

additional member, Dean Lockheart, Scottish Conservative and credit

union knit party. Sixth member, Stuart Alexander Stuart. 7th member.

Mark usical Scottish Green Party. That result has doubled the number

of conservatives representing that region, from two upto four. They are

the big winners in mid-Scotland. Two seats for Labour. Three last time

around. One for the Green party, breakthrough for them. They are the

confirmed MSPs. Elected for the Tories... Labour's

deputy leader, Alex Rowling. He has been elected alongside Claire Baker,

who served in the last Parliament. And the Green party, Mark Orozco. He

who served in the last Parliament. served as an MSP between 2003 and

2007. He is making a comeback this time around. No prizes for the

Liberal Democrats in mid Scotland and Fife.

A breakdown of the votes... SNP winning the list in terms of number

of votes. Not a single seat, again, because the system is designed to

balance out the overall share of the boat parties get. And linking that

to the number of seats they end up with in Parliament. Conservatives

second but picking up four seats. Labour, third. Liberal Democrats,

not getting a single seat. The Scottish Greens picking up one. No

prizes either for the UK Independence party. All the smaller

Socialist parties in mid-Scotland and five. -- Mid Scotland and Fife.

The SNP down four. Conservatives, up 11. We can hear from their leader,

Casey Dugdale. -- Kezia Dugdale. We do not forget the hard work you all

do and nor should we take for granted the privilege of taking part

in a democratic decision on who governs cars. Thank you to the

people of Edinburgh and the Lothians for collecting me. It has been the

honour of my life to campaign on your behalf. -- electing. I

congratulate my opponent on securing a third term in office. I promise we

will be a positive opposition in the coming years. This election was

always going to be tough for the Scottish Labour Party, just one year

after a painful general election defeat. I am proud that our campaign

rose to the challenge of offering an alternative vision for what could he

done in our new and more powerful Parliament. I would like to thank

all of those who voted for my party across the country. All the people

who volunteered and to all of our candidates. Your support means the

world to me. I know that any disappointment felt by my colleagues

and friends, who have lost tonight, is for Labour, secondary to the

concern that they feel about the impact of cuts yet to come and

continued austerity that working people across Scotland will face.

continued austerity that working Labour in the new parliament, led by

me, will do as we promised in this election. We will fight to make sure

Parliament uses its new powers and fulfils its great potential. I was

adamant I would fight this election about the future. Talking about the

potential for change. Using the powers of our new parliament to

potential for change. Using the deliver that change. Instead of

rerunning arguments of the past. I know that for some, the

constitutional argument remains the most important factor when casting

their vote. My determination to try and move the debate forward will

have cost me and my party tonight. But in the long-running, I think our

politics has to be about the future of the economy, the life chances of

children in this country and public services. And I and my party will

continue to make that argument in our new parliament. I would like to

thank the thousands of activists across the country who have worked

so hard on this campaign. Not least all the members in Edinburgh East

who ran a phenomenal campaign, often in recent times in my absence, and

led by the best possible agent in Gareth Lodge. I pay tribute to my

wonderful partner and soul mate. I have come a long way in this

campaign and also had to come out as well. Thank you, Louise, for that.

There is no defined -- no doubt our defeat is painful but it is not the

end of our campaign. We continue to argue for Labour values, ideas and

principles. We'll work to renew the Scottish Labour Party so that it is

fit to serve the people of Scotland and we will continue. Thank you. The

Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, conceding the election and offering

congratulations to Nicola Sturgeon on securing a third term for the SNP

in the Holyrood 2016 elections. She said she was proud of the Labour

Party campaign and said Labour in the new parliament, led by her,

would continue to argue the case for Holyrood to use the new powers to

fulfil the potential that they bring. And she also touched upon the

Labour campaign. He said that the party's attempts to move the debate

forward will have cost them votes tonight. Maybe a reflection on that

from Brian Taylor. As he brings his analysis. That is really intriguing

that she is willing to state that. The phase was not entirely gloomy

but it was under infused. -- face. We can look at some of the results

so far. Here is the chamber filling up here. Vast numbers of SNP members

in the middle. Here is the chamber in more detail. 92 seats declared.

We will get regional results as well. SNP, 58. They need 65 for the

overall majority. Conservatives, 15. Keeping Labour so far in third

place. The Tories not only picking up constituencies, but missed seats

as well. Four for the Green party and for the Liberal Democrats. They

were triumphant, understandably so, when they took a couple of seats on

the mainland to match the seats of Orkney and Shetland. But now the

the mainland to match the seats of Green party is eating into that.

Winning on the list. The SNP are not winning seats on the list, why?

Because they have umpteen seats in constituency votes. The Liberal

Democrats are not, why? Other parties are ousting them. They are

taking over more. We can look at the constituency share... That is the

share of the vote of constituencies. SNP, 47. Pretty close, it was 45

last time. 49.9 nine. Who is arguing? 50. Last year.

Conservatives on 21. The Greens only getting a few seats. It is the

change that tells the story. SNP up one percentage point. You say it is

only 1% but they have been in power one percentage point. You say it is

for nine years. This is a third term. The Labour Party are down nine

and Conservatives up eight. Pretty much a standstill here. Let's look

at the regional list share. A share of the vote on the regional list.

Again, SNP at the top of that poll but because they have gained so many

constituencies, they do not get much because it is a corrective

mechanism. The Conservative Party are a little fraction ahead of the

Labour Party. Maybe one reason why they are picking up list seats. The

Green party is a fraction ahead of the Liberal Democrats. That is why

they are picking up those list seats. Ukip among the others are yet

to register. Thank you, Brian. A couple of words of analysis from

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University. He said it

Professor John Curtice of now looks like the SNP are at risk

of failing to secure a second now looks like the SNP are at risk

overall majority in the Holyrood parliament. They will have to form a

minority-owned administration, maybe with the support of the Scottish

Green Party, who have doubled numbers up to four will stop he also

says the concern --. He also says the Conservatives will head --

emerge ahead of Labour comfortable it, although Labour are slightly

ahead in terms of votes one on the constituency ballot. More I'm sure

from him and our new political analyst who has joined us from

Edinburgh University. Professor Charlie Jeffery. Across to Fiona now

with our guest in the election A. Good morning. Good morning. I can

see the regional results have woken up the election cafe for anybody

having a sleepy moment. We have had fascinating reaction from spin

doctors and journalists, commentators and bloggers. You

describe yourself as a traditional Labour supporter. And also a former

adviser to the Scottish Labour Party, Kevin Friend go, a former

director of communications for the SNP. -- Kevin Pringle. The party's

attempts to move on the constitution debate, it was said, has cost them.

A dreadful might for Labour. It is very difficult to see where they go

from here in Scotland. I have heard some opinions this evening along the

lines of they must embrace the constitutional question

they have migrated to all the SMP. So presumably those left in the

party... In terms of being a party of the union, the Conservatives,

according to the people of Scotland, are seen more as a party of the

union of another Labour Party. The squeeze and the constitutional

issue, I do not see where they go from here in terms of policies.

issue, I do not see where they go my opinion they put forward a

comfortably left of centre traditional Labour manifesto. The

message was not getting through. Voters migrated to the SNP and have

stayed with the SNP. It also is to me that in future, the very near

future, Scotland will continue to be dominated by the constitutional

question. Where does Labour go from here? It was good that she is

essentially admitted the strategy was wrong. You have to be whether

people are. With the Referendum campaign, we are fewer than two

years away and it still dominates. What's the Labour Party did was

repeat the mistakes of the general election last year. Instead of

chasing the 55% winning the Referendum, largely middle-class,

they decided to chase that part of the 45% who had abandoned the Labour

Party. That was a mistake and it was repeated. It would be very easy to

be the party of the union and say a few are serious about defending it,

do not vote Conservative, vote Labour. They need to get back to

that position. And to be fair to Kezia Dugdale, she has only been in

the job eight months. She needs to get her own team and agenda and then

I think the party can be properly reformed in the way it could not be

after 2011 because we have the Referendum to deal with. We have

talked a lot about Scottish Labour and the Tory revival but what about

the SNP? We are talking about a possible coalition? If you look at

first past the post winning more seats than 2011 with a slightly

larger share of the boat, that is pretty extraordinary by any measure

for a party seeking a third term. I think what she would like is to get

to the job of governing. She talked about major ambitions for education,

closing the gap between rich and poor and investing more than

inflation increases in the National Health Service. She wanted to get

her own mandate. She has got that, by any standard. Extraordinary

levels of support, even a bit about 2011. She has her own mandate and a

radical policy agenda and would like to get her team assembled and get on

the job as soon possible. Let us know your thoughts on any of this.

It is a much more interesting election than a lot of people

expected. Talk to us on social media. The hash tag is SB 16. We

will hear from Kezia Dugdale in a moment. We can talk to Patrick

Harvie from the Green party. Congratulations on your real

election. Green is currently sitting on four MSP 's. Twice as much

election. Green is currently sitting last parliament. Do you think you

will end up as the fourth placed party at Holyrood, displacing the

Liberal Democrats? Wightman P Andy Wightman P We hope

so. I will hopefully be heading west to the west of Scot declaration in

time for that in a few minutes time. What is clear, is that we have

managed to gain huge momentum, certainly in Glasgow where we

managed to gain huge momentum, second in Glasgow Kelvin, that is

the closest we have come to winning a constituency, and I am told that

it is the closest that anybody has come to challenging the SNP in any

constituency in Glasgow. So, we have gained momentum, we have gained a

lot of profile I think during this campaign, and we have gained

lot of profile I think during this expertise and the experience of

getting our campaigners and volunteers out there on a scale that

we have never seen before, so, it is momentum that will continue to

we have never seen before, so, it is on. No doubt the SNP have won this

election an won their third term but it is not clear that the party will

win that overall majority, if they fall short, how closely would Greens

be prepared to work with the SNP to support them in office? Well, I

think you have access to more of the numb -- number crunching than me, I

will have to see what the result looks like, everybody will have to

in the cold light of day, it is daytime already, it's the morning,

we are going to have to look at the results once we have had a bit of

time to digest them. What we have said is we bring constructive

challenge to bear, in many areas, said is we bring constructive

Greens constructive challenge, being constructive where we can, giving

fair credit where it is due but pushing the SNP to go further when

they are not going far enough. That is the attitude that has got result,

it has got them to move ground on things like fuel poverty and energy

efficiency, on protecting tenants in the private rented sector and indeed

on issues like land reform. We will continue to do that, and whatever

the overall balance of MSPs in the next session of the Scottish

Parliament is, we will continue to bring that challenge to bear,

because we know it gets results. It is more effective than standing in

the chamber shouting and ranting as though tefrg SNP do is terrible.

That is not rational and doesn't get result, The Green approach is more

constructive and will always be willing to sit down and talk to find

out where there are genuine areas of common ground while

out where there are genuine areas of challenge them. Thank you very much

indeed. It is sounds like any arrangement that may be required

would come at a price from a Green arrangement that may be required

point of view. Let us cross the country and go back to the Edinburgh

count and talk with the Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale,

congratulations on your re-election but there is no way of Varnishing

this, putting a gloss on it, it's a disaster for Labour tonight. Morning

Glenn, yes, it's a very bad night for the Labour Party. There is no

question about that. I think you heard some of what I had to say when

I was elected there about what I think has happened overnight. I will

have a better sense of analysis for your over the weekend once I have

had some sleep. There is no doubt the constitution has dominated this

election campaign, what we have seen across the country is areas of great

strength for the Yes campaign, and areas where there is is a strong no

the Tories have benefitted from that. Throughout this campaign I

have tried to make case of moving on from the referendum argument of the

past. Bear a fairer Scot with the votes of people who voted yes and

no, despite being proud to have voted no myself. Paul Sinclair, was

he right to argue that you had chased the wrong group of voters,

those who were perhaps left leaning and left the Labour Party for the

SNP instead of sticking by middle class no voters who stuck with

Labour? I think in fairness to Paul, somebody who I have a high regard

for, I could have done that, that would have been a short-term,

shortlived strategy. It is the the long-term Ben fillet of Scot to move

on from the referendum benefits of past. That is why I wanted to build

a coalition of voters who voted yes and no, to tackle fairness and

inequality in this country, that is why the tax reforms I put for wad I

felt were important, to raise the money we need to stop the cuts

because the reality of tonight's result, is regardless of the way the

cards fall in the end, Scotland is faced with ?3 billion worth of cuts

yet to come, unless we are prepared to use the new power to make

different choices. That means a lot of vulnerable people are going to

face further authority -- austerity. That has not been the choice Scot

has settled for. Thank you for battling to be heard over the

dismantling effort. Will you stay as Labour leader, no matter what? No

matter what. 100%, I am remaining leader of the Scottish Labour Party.

Will that be up to you? I took over leader of the Scottish Labour Party.

this job in challenging times, I said at the time that I was on a

mission to renew the Scottish Labour Party, that I had a plan of how do

that, I asked my colleagues to step behind me with that five year vision

for the future of the party and they did so, with 72% of the vote. I have

a huge mandate to lead this party, from all the conversations I have

had with colleagues tonight, I continue to have a huge mandate to

lead this party. Thank you for speaking to us live from the count

in Edinburgh, what is left of it. Kezia Dugdale, leader of the

Scottish Labour Party. It has gone 6.30. 6.35 in case you are clock

watching and getting ready for work. Let us bring in our political panel.

We will start with the Deputy Leader of the SNP. You have been round long

enough to have lost as well as won. Do you feel anything for Kezia

Dugdale and her colleagues this evening I do. This morning. I do. I

feel for everyone who has lost a seat. Because you know, whether we

agree or disagree, if people go into politics to do public service, to do

good, however they see it, and they politics to do public service, to do

get wiped out because of a swing, of course you have to feel for them.

But at that point, the sympathy stops because Kezia said... I

thought there would be a but. She says she wanted to move on from the

referendum. I understand that, but it is too soon for Labour simply to

say, we didn't really go to bed with Tory, we didn't do a deal, we didn't

say nasty things about Scot, let us move on. I am not sure it is the end

game for Labour yet in terms of public saying we are not ready to

forgive you yet. So it could get worse before it gets better, if it

does? I had, I was in the Glasgow count for part of the evening

tonight. I saw the look on Glasgow Labour councillors's faces. I think

they know what might happen next year, if they don't get their act

together. I am going to going to come to Carly in a moment. Martin,

was your diagnosis, what has gone wrong for Labour in this election,

after a series of bad elections I think you heard it from Kez there,

we ran a campaign, which I think was, you know, in my view a strong

campaign but the country isn't ready for it. A strong

wrong campaign. The country isn't ready for the arguments we wanted to

put, so we wanted to move beyond the referendum, that clearly hasn't been

successful this evening and we can see that in the results. Now, over

the next FIA years it there will be a responsibility on the SNP, if

there is a minority Government or a coalition, to, we will be holding

them to account on the same issues we put forward in this campaign, as

Kez said the ?3 billion of cut we expect to see and using the powers

of the Parliament in order to alleviate the pain we are already

seeing communities across Scotland, so you know, it is the SNP's victory

this evening, that is something I congratulate them for, and we are

still obviously seeing results coming in on the regional list, but

this campaign has been you know a campaign put forward a solid

argument but it is one the country wasn't ready for. We haven't moved

on from the constitutional debate we had in 2014. Let us see what

on from the constitutional debate we has to say on that. Are we still

witnessing post referendum politics? We certainly are. I think we are

seeing extraordinary position of Labour losing to everyone,

everywhere. They are losing on the left, to the SNP, and in particular

in the west of Scotland but they are losing across the country to the

Conservatives, on the unionist side of that equation. It looks very

difficult for them to find a way back, once they are being squeezed

on both dimensions of Scottish politics, left, right and union

versus independence. No matter what, Kezia Dugdale says,

she will remain as Labour Partier, do you think that is the case, is it

up to her to make that decision? Self evidently it is not up to her,

if that if there a serious challenge and the party votes otherwise, she

is gone. I don't think there will be a serious challenge. I think she

will be left as the incumbent because the party has to have a far

more fundamental rethink than just changing the leader again. I have

lost count of the number they have had in cent year, I suspect they

have too. It was interesting she said she tried to move on, and it

wasn't possible. The party was going said she tried to move on, and it

in a different direction from the electorate. If the party is going in

a different direction, guess what? You lose. We are waiting for results

from the south of Scotland, why are we wait something Cameron can

perhaps tell us. What is going on in Kelso? Well, I have to say, there is

a naushlen over in the room. The counting seems to have stoppedches I

can see a huddle over in one corner of the hall, with the Scottish

Borders Council official. There is an expectation but to be honest I

think that is that John Lamont is going to hold Ettrick down here, I

spoke to a well placed source within the Scottish National Party hand

they were adamant he has won it. John Lamont wouldn't concede it

himself. He plays his cards close to his chest, but they are looking

pretty relaxed. The Conservatives just now, but yes, we are waiting. I

suppose, the Scottish Borders Council did anticipate roughly this

time in the morning. You are talking 125 polling station, 400 box, they

are counts four seats here, two constituency, two list, they did

anticipate this would take this length of time I am afraid. How much

longer? I have no idea. LAUGHTER. Ask a stupid question, get

a stupid answer. We will be back to you when you have more news.

I thought something was happening but possibly not. Sorry. It was

entertaining nonetheless. Live from Kelso and we are waiting for that

Ettrick result, and at least one other from the south of Scotland.

The indications there that the Conservatives would hold that seat

and that would add some extra icing and a couple of cherries to what is

already a very good night for the Tories. It certainly is. I think we

have seen the recovery of the Conservative Party from the

disasters of the 1990s, in this election. They have won

significantly from Labour. Interesting the look at the North

East of Scotland as well, where the tartan Tory, who, who went to the

SNP, appear to be moving back, a pattern you can see across parts of

rural Scotland outside the North East. The Conservatives look to have

a social base again in Scotland, which they lost.

Brian Taylor, for years the Conservatives, the brand for the

party has been seen by some as being toxic, Murdo Fraser reelected

tonight stood for the leadership calling for the party to be torn up

and for a new centre-right force, is that no longer necessary? He was

probably right at the time. Given what subsequently happened to the

Conservatives, I would guess that idea has probably gone the way. I

was struck by remarks that Jackson made about the nature of the

Conservative approach again, you know, referring to Annie well,

wasn't that a great interview she did, about the pitch that she is

making. The Conservatives are not back in fully kicking, they are

still the only party since universal suffrage to achieve a popular

majority in 195, but, and despite all the thing, they didn't do it

last year, they were only short. Governing, the SNP are currently on,

what are they on? 58 seats, Christine Graham will take the

what are they on? 58 seats, Midlothian one. They haven't got any

on the list so far. They might pick one in the North East. If they fall

short, they will they form a coalition? Not a chance, 2007,

remember, three days of anguish negotiations with the two Greens

produced a concordat, that was to be about confidence and supply, it fell

apart when The Greens refused to vote for the SNP budget. I think the

same would happen again, this time. I don't think the SNP would want to

be in a coalition with The Greens at all, given their stance on tax, and

I think that the SNP, if they fall short will govern as a minority and

seek to do a deal on annual basis with regard to the budget. Who

knows? It could be the return of the Conservatives, who were so

influential during that 2007-11 Parliament in negotiating concession

over the budget. I am not sure they would be Amin to believe that

arrangement in this coming Parliament if you are the main party

of opposition, would that be a fair reading? We will be standing at the

principle party of opposition to the Scottish National Party. No deals?

No. What I think is extraordinary, is none of the opinion polls before

the election had us winning two seats in Glasgow, had us winning two

seats in the Lothian if you take into account Ruth Davidson's as

well. That is quite a transformation, if the SNP now falls

short of a majority, I think Nicola Sturgeon's gift of deciding when and

if there will be another referendum in Scotland will have been stripped

from her. Let me add this. If they are short of an overall majority

there is no principle opposition party, because it doesn't require

any party as a single party, even if it is 20, 25, 8 or nine, it requires

a simple majority for any legislation for the budget. When I

was the finance spokesman in the Scottish Parliament I sat down with

was the finance spokesman in the John Swinney, it was after the

Conservatives because they were keen to vote for the SNP budget.

It changes the nature of the parliament. Would you look issue by

issue and do deals with all parties? I am assuming Nicola becomes the

First Minister. A Parliamentary group will come to a decision on how

to proceed and the best way. But can I say, Jeremy, that is absolute

nonsense. If they had support initially to form a majority

administration, of course is a principled opposition to ask the

questions. I think the Liberal party are sitting on the same number of

seats as the Green party and they cannot suddenly pretend... I sat

down with John Swinney as the finance spokesman each year and we

had this process. You do not need the numbers to get the majority. It

changes the dynamic... We want to get a result from the next count.

1700 sexy six. Scottish Liberal Democrats, 2551. John Hammond,

Scottish Conservative Unionist Party, 18200 and 57. Paul

Wheelhouse, Scottish National Party, 10500 and 21. John Lamont has been

elected in the Scottish Parliament as the member for the Roxburgh and

Berwickshire constituency. A number of papers were rejected and not

counted at this election, as follows, 88. John Lamont re-elected

as the Conservative MSP for Roxburgh and Berwickshire. I think I saw him

release a little breath of relief. But it was not even slightly close.

Winning with over 18,000 votes. Beating Paul Wheelhouse. A minister

in the Scottish Government. It looks like he is out of the Scottish

Parliament, albeit that he is on the SNP list but fairly far down. He

finishes in second place with just over 10,000 votes. Jim Hume also

standing third in the list. Barry Cunningham, four. The turnout was

61%. The Conservatives taking 55%. Compared to last time, the

Conservatives are up by ten. Labour down by five. And a quick look at

the swing from the SNP to the Conservatives. 2%. The Conservatives

hold. There is only one more constituency seat to declare. The

picture overall with Jackie. One more to go. A very successful night

for the SNP. As expected they have gone ahead in constituency seats,

winning 58 out of 72 declared so far. It has been a good night for

the Scottish Conservatives. Not just there. They have added two

constituencies and from the list and they could emerge as the main

opposition party. It could be the best performance north of the border

since 1992. The Liberal Democrats held on to Orkney and Shetland and

added another couple to their constituency tally. The Green party

has four list seats so far and could be kingmakers if the SNP do not

achieve the overall majority. Patrick Harvie said it had been a

good night for them. We have managed to gain huge momentum. Certainly in

Glasgow, we came second in Glasgow, Kelvin. The closest we have come to

winning a constituency. I am told it is the closest anybody has come to

challenging the SNP in any constituency in Glasgow. We have

gained momentum and a lot a profile in this campaign and certainly

gained the expertise and experience of getting campaigners and

volunteers out there on a scale we have never seen before. It is

momentum which we will continue have never seen before. It is

building on. A dismal night for Labour. The party losing ground to

the SNP and the Conservatives. The party leader Kezia Dugdale was the

only main party leader not to win a constituency seat, but who will

only main party leader not to win a return to Holyrood courtesy of the

regional list seat. This is what she said. This election was always going

to be tough for the Scottish Labour Party, just one year after the

painful general election defeat. But I am proud that our campaign rose to

the challenge of offering an alternative vision for what could be

done in the new and more powerful parliament. She says she will not

stand down as leader of the Scottish Labour Party. We can take a look at

some of the front pages this fine morning. Daily record, five more

years. Nicola is on the front of the Edinburgh evening News. With a

beaming Ruth Davidson. And on Twitter, Nicola

beaming Ruth Davidson. And on congratulated Leanne Wood on winning

Rhondda for Clyde Camry. Thank you very much, Jackie. We are waiting

for one more constituency declaration in the Scottish

Parliament election. We have got three of the regional results

already declared with the rest are still to come, completing the

Scottish Parliament picture. We can see what it looks like right now

with David Henderson. It is a good moment to take stock. The SNP had

shown themselves to be the dominant force in Scottish politics in recent

years this -- and this morning there are close to a majority in the

Scottish Parliament. It would be a story tribe. But they need to make

it over the finishing line. -- it would be a historic triumph. This is

how the parliament chamber is filling up. Nearly all the

constituencies. And three of the regions have now declared the

results. Many MSP 's will occupy these seats for the next five years

and have been confirmed. A large chunk of SNP yellow. They are on 58

seats. They need 65, remember, for a majority. The Conservatives are over

seats. They need 65, remember, for a here, currently in second place,

with 16. On the other side of the SNP, here is Labour. Just 11 seats

so far. The Liberal Democrats and the Green party have got four each.

Many people thought and SNP majority was the most likely outcome of the

election. But as we can see that is not guaranteed yet. Let's look at

why. Let's look at the change in the party seat allocation, compared to

the last election. The SNP has gained six seats. The Tories have

gained four. The Liberal Democrats, two. Labour have had a terrible

night, losing a lot of ground. 12 seats down in total. Let's have a

night, losing a lot of ground. 12 look at where the SNP have gained

ground tonight. Here we go. Winning at the expense of labour. Right

here. These yellow flashing seats. They now belong to the SNP. They

were Labour Party seats. All through the central belt. Most of them in

the West of Scotland. But the SNP have also lost some seats as well,

five in all, three in Edinburgh, one in Fife, and one in Aberdeenshire.

They are now lashing. This is the state of play at this stage. One

constituency yet to declare, Midlothian 's. -- Midlothian South,

Tweedale and Lauderdale. These are in grey on the regional result grid

here. The SNP need seven more MSPs to get a majority. Will they get

them? Will they need the support of other parties in the chamber? Could

it be the Green party? We will find out. Back to you. Thanks very much,

David. Let's go to Aberdeen. Stephen, what have you got for us?

We are still waiting for the North East regional list to be declared.

Estimated at about half past seven, we are told. I am joined by Alex

Johnston, top of the list for the Conservatives. You also had a

constituency count. How did you get on? I missed it by 2500. Tell us

about the revival of the Tories, winning constituencies. We are

enjoying the opportunity to go back and win constituencies, winning

several tonight and one in the North East, taking West Aberdeenshire.

That is a tremendous step forward. We have been strong in the

north-east but not had a constituency. We have got one now

and a genuine foothold and we will use that to make progress. Yellow

macro West Aberdeenshire is interesting because the Labour Party

have never done well here. Where are you getting votes from? I think

there is a strong conservative vote which has drifted in several

directions over generations. We are focusing minds back on corporate use

and people that are instinctively conservative wants to vote

Conservative. Are the Tartan Tories? conservative wants to vote

We are a distinctively Scottish party. Ruth Davidson has set out to

achieve with that. We are genuinely Scottish people, a Scottish party

with Scottish values and a Scottish job to do. That is why the people of

Scotland have realised the Conservatives can do a job for them

and have started voting for them in this election and increasing

and have started voting for them in numbers. Do you expect to stand --

spend most of your time answering for decisions in the Tory government

in Westminster? That is something we have not often had to do. You have

complained about that to me in the past! We are distinctively Scottish.

And we have the right, if required, to make different decisions about

how to implement policies in Scotland. Ruth Davidson has taken

that power and produced a manifesto design for Scotland and will work

for Scotland. She will provide the opposition which has been lacking in

Scotland. The SNP tonight will probably end up as the largest party

and will continue governing but will have a strong opposition with the

Conservative Party which will actually try and change the

direction. Alex, thank you very much. They are hoping for two, maybe

three seats when the North East list is declared. We expect that, it is

three seats when the North East list estimated at about half past seven.

STUDIO: Thank you very much. The North East list is one of five to

declare. 35 MSPs to come and one constituency coming as well. At this

stage it is clear the SNP has won the election, with a historic third

term. It is less clear if they will win it with an overall majority.

They might find themselves having to make deals to get business done in

the next Parliament. The Conservatives are looking

increasingly likely to be the main opposition party, displacing labour

and still a battle between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens for

fourth place. Live now to Holyrood and the Scottish Parliament. For the

first time this morning. Good morning, Shelley. Good morning. It

is a lovely morning morning, Shelley. Good morning. It

in Edinburgh. This is obviously where a lot of the new people and

familiar faces will be coming on Monday morning to start settling

into their jobs for the next five years. We do not know exactly how

the chamber will look at the moment. years. We do not know exactly how

But to discuss the results as they stand is Alan from Edinburgh

University. Obviously a very good night for the SNP. But maybe not

enough to form a majority government? It has been a very good

night. We just do not yet know how good. We do not know they will get

the magic 65 numbers. We definitely know they will be in government but

we do not know the form of the government, whether it is a majority

get mad or some of minority government. The battle is for second

place. List results still coming in. It looks like a good night for the

Conservatives. That is right. They had a next night and picked up seats

they may be did not expect. Ruth Davidson had a very disciplined

campaign about presenting herself about a credible opposition and

presenting herself as a Unionist and alternative opposition to the SNP. I

think the Conservatives will be pleased with the result. Especially

if, as looks likely, they come ahead of the Labour Party and become the

main opposition party. We have heard Kezia Dugdale say that she thinks

they have lost out overnight because they tried to take on and move the

constitutional debate on from the Referendum and talk about other

issues. Do you think that is what these results are telling us? I

think it would be wrong to read into it as purely a problem of that

election, it goes much further back to 2007, failing to renew themselves

in opposition. There has also been discussion of short-term factors

about what is right to place themselves to the left of the SNP by

advocating increased taxes? I think that is a debate they need to have.

It is looking like a good night for The Green, they could become

influential if there is a minority Government. If it's a minority

Government, The Greens will want to have influence in

Government, The Greens will want to committee, in Parliament as well,

and The Greens, what we don't know yet, is whether they will come ahead

of the Liberal Democrats as well, which would be a good result for the

Scottish Green Party. What night to you think it is is for the Liberal

Democrats? They have hung on to some seats, it has been a good night for

Willie Rennie who has won his seat. It shows the Liberal Democrats fight

a good campaign, they can hang on, so I think it could have been worse

for the Liberal Democrats and it has gone reasonably well for them. Any

big surprises so far as you have looked at the results. I know you

have been up all night Theres have been pleasing results. Willie

Rennie, also for the Conservatives winning back Eastwood, so a long

period, was a traditional Tory seat. To win that back has been a

personally good for Jackson Carlaw and the Conservatives as well. A

Tory seat, a natural Tory seat they have managed to win back. We haven't

heard anything about Ukip, have they just not really figured in this

election? We haven't heard anything about Ukip. I haven't looked at the

latest figures but it appears they might not get a seat. That is in

contrast to Wales where they are done much better in the selection.

All right. That is it for now. From the Scottish Parliament in

Edinburgh. Thank you. We will be back to you

throughout, the remainder of the programme. It has just gone 7.00 on

Friday 6th May. It is clear at this stage the SNP has won far less clear

that they will finish with an overall majority, which may mean

deal making for Nicola Sturgeon, and her team, as they move towards a

deal making for Nicola Sturgeon, and third term in Government, for the

SNP. Probably no deals with the Conservatives, they seem to be

emerging as the main party of opposition, having displaced the

Labour Party, pushing them into third place. Kezia Dugdale, the

Labour leader, has conceded the election and congratulated Nicola

Sturgeon but made clear that she is no intention of giving up as Labour

leader. Let us go to Dingwall. In Dingwall, you can see that there is

some movement, as we move towards the regional list declaration for

the Highlands and islands, that appears to be the Conservative group

of candidates and activist for the high land list. It is one of five

regional lists still to declare, we have had three so far, five still to

go. In each of the regions, celebrations, where there are

winners and obviously commiserations would be MSPs lose out. So the

Highlands and islands declaration is imminent, news of what is about to

be declared appears to be filtering out to the candidates and their

tales at the count in Dingwall. Let us bring in our political panel,

and we have a new member, a new representative for the Scottish

Labour Party. Anas Sarwar who has made a political come back, you lost

your seat in Glasgow at the Westminster election a year ago but

you are back as a regional MSP for Glasgow. Good to be back? I am the

youngest veteran in politics, in terms of some of the things that is

happening in the politics. It looks challenging, but for me, it's a huge

honour to represent the city in which I was born, and brought up and

a huge honour to try and working alongside my other Labour colleagues

to rebuild the Labour Party and movement You have been a deputy

leader of the party in the past, you have been through a few scrapes in

that role and as an MSP you have won and you have lost, but tonight, it

that role and as an MSP you have won is a special kind of defeat for the

Labour Party, I mean, this is the worst ever result in a national

election in Scotland, as far as we can tell. How on earth to you start

rebuilding from here? Last year was obviously difficult for us, this

year it is no different. What makes it different this time from last

year, is I don't think we need to go it different this time from last

through some of the things we had to go through last year, in terms of

looking at our policy programme, looking at what we stood for, who we

stood with. Kezia has made that clear in this election campaign, I

think we have a very strong manifesto on which we can build in

terms of opposition to the nationalist and to the Tories in

this Parliament. You think you fought the right campaign with the

right policies? I think, so look, I think the challenge we have, is I

think Kezia Dugdale was saying the right things and the Labour Party

was saying the right things, I think the honest reality is, that people

aren't willing to listen to us at the moment. That is harder truth, I

think for the Labour Party, in this election campaign, we have to win

the right to be listened to again, that is not happening in this

election. listened and didn't like what you

had to say In the polls don't show that. The polls show you got beaten.

The polls clearly show we got beaten. Beaten. I am not trying to

negate that, if you look at the polls round the policy and which

were popular, which weren't, clearly there was popularity for the 50

pence tax policy clearly popularity for the basis rate of income tax to

fund public service, that did for the basis rate of income tax to

translate into people trusting us to deliver that and trusting us with

the vote. That is a more fundamental problem for us. You have lost

support to the Conservative Party, in a seat like east ward, Jackson

Carlo is the MSP and your guy is dumped into third place. This is the

sort sort of denial the Conservatives were in in 1997, if I

am being frank. We thought it was unfortunate that people hadn't

understand what we were about and if we just, if we spoke more about

plainly to people... I think the reality is as Glenn said, the policy

programme was listened to and it has been rejected. It depends

programme was listened to and it has poll you looked at. There were polls

that said 69% said they didn't want tax hiring in Scotland and that

England. In any event as I found in a very

long time in politics, people will sometimes say one thing to opinion

pollsters and when they are asked to go into the ballot box and vote for

hiring taxes they have second thoughts. The point I am making

which is a much more fundamental problem for the Labour Party, is

which is a much more fundamental whatever we said, the point I am

making about people not listening, whatever we said, we have a problem

in terms of connecting with certain parts of the electorateer for them

listening to what we have to say. That is a much more fundamental

problem for us as a party. I think that is the realisation, to

tinkering round the edges of manifestos or talking about

individuals and personalities misses is point. What do you need to do. I

think Kez has done the right thing in defining what we stand for and

who we stand with. I think we have rightly started talking about o how

we use the power of the Parliament rather than talking about the

referendum problem. We are ahead of that. I think the country is still

referendum problem. We are ahead of thinking about the context of the

referendum, the yes and no question, we tried to move past that yes or no

question this this captain, that was difficult for us. -- in this

campaign. We have to rebuild that trust across the country. One thing

we haven't picked up on since the picture started to become clearer,

that the SNP win might not include that overall majority, without that,

there is not going to be an independence round in the next five

year. There won't unless and until the Scottish people want one, that

is the key thing. Understood, but the lesson from the 2007-11

Parliament where they went in promising a referendum, was you

couldn't have had one if you wanted to, you would have been outvoted.

Indeed. I would urge a little caution, to my friends, particularly

in the Labour Party, we have seen what happened to them, having gone

into bed with the Tory, and said no to things whatever it was, for too

long, imagine if the Scottish people decide, and they tell pollsters for

a year or two or three by an overwhelming majority, they want a

referendum and they want to vote yes. Are we going to have the Labour

Party, once again, let me finish, once again jump into bed with the

Tories and say no to the wishes of the people of Scot? I think that

serious challenge for Labour, it is all good and well saying you want to

move on from the constitutional question, but you have to understand

what it means. It is about the people being sovereign not the

Labour Party. Let us... In two years' time, as much as we hope this

is going to be happen, it is challenging the opinion polls

change. We will be rerunning the election on that basis mandates come

from the electorate in an election, election on that basis mandates come

they don't come from pollsters. John Curtice shouldn't decide when the

next referendum is, it should be the people of Scotland. We will make

sure that Jeremy gets a say next time he comes to the panel. I want

to go back to our election cafe. Fiona is there with new guests.

Indeed, yes. They have been going all night. City

going strong, there is no show without Pup and no election campaign

without social media. Angela Haggerty who writes a column on

social media at the Sunday Herald is here and Ross from the Daily Record.

Well done for staying was all night. You have looked at some of the

friend trends, what have you noticed. It is difficult to get

trends when you are doing the overnight coverage, people are

starting to get quick reaction to it. But there has been some surprise

at the early results in Orkney and Shetland. People expected, they

didn't expect such a big Liberal Democrat return. There has been some

surprise at the increase in the Tory vote as well. Just recently with The

Greens regional votes coming out, there has been excitement round that

stuff and particular Andy Wightman being elected, there has been a lot

of chat round that, I think you tend to get more reaction coming through

once you have a fuller picture of the results and then you start the

see more themes emerging about what the issues will be. We have some

results to come, but you have you been keeping a close eye on social

media overnight. One of the things I found interesting has been a bit of

acrimony between the SNP and The Greens which might start to be

interesting if it comes to a potential coalition between the two,

if the SNP fall short of the majority. I think the instant

reaction which they might regret from the SNP, was one of anger in

Edinburgh Central when Tory leader Ruth Davidson won, because The Green

vote, that was one of only three constituency The Greens stood in.

They had a great performance. Ruth Davidson's majority was only 600, so

there was a suggestion from the SNP that maybe their independence

supporting colleagues in the Green Party might have considered not

bothering standing in that seat. Having said that, the Green Parties

have got their own back now as far as the Twitter back-and-forth goes,

because 100,000 thousand SNP regional votes in Glasgow have

effectively come to nothing, and the implication from The Greens is they

are relentless, their strategy has starved the Greens and by extension

the pro independence movement of another MSP in Glasgow. It is

talking a -- interesting talking about that, you do think people will

look at them on social media and say that? I don't think the hashtags

themselves influence how somebody is going to vote. In terms of getting a

message out and keeping it going strongly I think that has been

useful. There has been, that has been one of the areas of conflict in

what has been a boring election for a social media, when you compare to

it the independence referendum in the general election, there has been

conflict within the pro independence block, over how they are going to

split their votes or if they should, so that will be interesting, think

in the aftermath of the election once we have got the results

through, to see how the relationships on social media

progress now, and whether they break down a bit further or whether you

start to see some sort of the election is over and it is back to

business for the pro independence people.

Over the campaign as a whole, who do you think did it well and who did it

less well? Well, it depends on whether you are reflecting on their

own output. Party propaganda on social media by its nature is dry

and you know, a stale message almost, but to me, it was the more

that you can us through to people who you might not reach and possibly

Ruth Davidson was the best example of that. Willie Rennie, he said in

his speech, that he had time of his life during this. It was like a

bucket list. I don't think anyone could disagree with that. He looked

like he was having a great time. Possibly that, you know an

enthusiastic leader makes it easier to believe this. Maybe 2015 they

were coming out of that coalition and there was this belief the

message was the Liberal Democrat fight back and the Liberal Democrats

fighting back but that never really showed. You have someone like Willie

Rennie who believes it and it is shining out of his eyes, I don't

know if that has had cut through, especially in his own constituency,

he shocked everyone, possibly even himself. Thank you both to my guest,

remember, if you want to take part in the social media conversation,

please do, we will keep an eye on, let you know the trend, use the

hashtag SP 16. 36 One constituency seats to declare

and we are waiting for the results of five regions across Scotland. It

looks increasingly difficult for the SNP to achieve the overall majority.

What is your calculation? Yes, it does. There is one more constituency

to declare which I think the SNP will win. It looks like five more

seats on the list is the most likely outcome in the Highlands, two in the

South, one in the north-east. It could be one more, one less. It is

just one or two short. In these circumstances, Brian, with the

support of the Green party, the independence issue could come back

into play but on a day to day basis it requires deals to get things

done. Couple of things on that, first, the Presiding Officer is

going to be rather important in the next Parliament. It had been

forecast that the SNP could be in the running for that job. If the SNP

are short of an overall majority they are not going to want to give

up one of their number to that post. That was the case in 2007. 2011 when

it was Alex Fergusson who stepped into the breach from the

Conservatives, filling that role when the SNP were reluctant to allow

one of their number to take the post. Then you have the business of

deals. I have some sympathy with Jeremy Purvis. It was getting

slapped around the head. He was forming the principal opposition.

Not literally! There was no physical violence. You missed the head

slapping. It was not quite the finest moment of the programme!

There is a present will opposition party. The others can be

influential. I call again that 2007-2011 Parliament. Jeremy Purvis

and Derek family for the Conservatives and Adam McGurk. They

try to strike deals and Margaret McDonald managed to get something

every year and then got a ski slope one year out of John Swinney.

Because he needed every single vote. Because it is a budget that counts.

There is the matter of getting legislation through, not least, as

you point out, legislation for a Referendum if one is proposed. I

think at the present moment Nicola Sturgeon is less than inclined to

propose one. Let's bring in the political panel again. We did here

last time from Jeremy Purvis who was not literally slapped around their

head in advancing the case that they had made a little bit earlier. We

are waiting for list results. Which could determine whether or not your

party finishes fourth or indeed fit in this election. The first three,

there was a squeeze and you did not get anything from those. Are you

going to pick up enough to stay ahead of the Green Party? I think

the way in which the system operates, have we have in discussing

is the element, gaining mainland constituencies, that works against

us in the regions where we have been successful. If I may, I will come

back to the element, if the SNP do not get the overall majority, these

are no longer spending budgets, they are tax budgets. There will be no

opposition from the Conservatives on the tax-raising budget from the SNP.

Because they are agreed. Both parties have agreed not to raise any

of the rates. Where will the opposition be? Where will the

dynamic be when it comes to the ongoing budget with a minority

government situation, when the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats have

got a different position and the Labour Party, the dynamic will be

very different. Fundamentally, I think if the SNP lose the overall

majority in this election, that is think if the SNP lose the overall

material change in circumstances coming to the independence

Referendum question. Throwing the phrase of Nicola Sturgeon back at

her. A change of circumstances, if they lose the majority, which they

may well do this morning. Watched you think? You could make a similar

argument to say that if the Green Party get twice as many seats as the

Liberal Democrats and there is a clear independent supporting

majority, that would be the same argument in reverse. I am not going

to make that argument. I think we argument in reverse. I am not going

should stick to what is at hand. Results are yet to come. We do not

know how list votes will break down. Before we get into the realms of

know how list votes will break down. what might happen, let's get the

votes counted. I think we might get another round of list results from

the Highlands and Islands. Here it is. With an electorate of 348,303,

the total votes cast in the regional list were 2205 -- -- was with a

turnout of 51%. For each candidate as follows, RISE, 889. Scottish

Christian Party, 3407. Scottish Conservatives and Unionist Party,

44,000 693. Scottish Green Party, 14700 and 81. Scottish Labour Party,

22,000 894. Scottish Liberal Democrats, 27,000 223. Scottish

National Party, 81,000 600. Solidarity, 793. UK Independence

party, 5344. James Stocking, 6389. 370 votes were rejected. Therefore I

declare the following candidates are elected to serve as members of the

Scottish Parliament for the Highlands and Islands region.

Douglas Ross. Scottish Conservatives and Unionist Party. Would a grant,

Scottish Labour Party. Edward Mountain, Scottish Conservative and

Unionist party. Donald Cameron, Scottish Conservatives and Unionist

Party. John Fenny, Scottish Green Party. Marie Todd, Scottish National

Party. And David Stewart, Scottish Labour Party. That is the Highlands

and islands blessed. All seven seats declared. Three for the

Conservatives. We will get back to that in a moment. Central Scotland

list... 106. Scottish Christian Party proclaiming Christ's lordship,

248. Scottish Conservative Unionist Party proclaiming Christ's lordship,

Party, 4217. Scottish Green Party, 880. Scottish Labour Party, 8729.

Scottish Liberal Democrats, 423. Scottish National Party, 12 646.

Solidarity, Scotland's socialist movement, 279. UK Independence

party, 730. Derek Lamont, independent, 35. Total, 26 646.

Papers rejected, 26. Total number of votes, 26 672. In terms of the

Motherwell constituency, RISE socialist and environmentalist

party... STUDIO: I think the returning officer for the Central

Scotland regional list is actually going through the total number of

list votes which have been cast in each of the Parliamentary

constituencies in the region. As that is going to take a while, we

will keep monitoring and come back to him when he is ready to declare

the outcome of the Central Scotland less. We will go back to the

Highlands and Islands. We heard that in full. We will confirm the details

for you. less. We will go back to the

Highlands and Islands. We in full. We will confirm the details

for you. Conservatives have won three sleeps with Douglas Ross... --

three seats. All new members of the Scottish Parliament. Conservatives

up from two, to three. Labour have been re-elected with Rhoda Grant and

David Stewart. Retaining the count of two seeds. A breakthrough for the

Green Party with John Fenny elected for them. He served in the last

Parliament on the Highlands and Islands but was elected as an SNP

member. He then left the party and he sat as an independent because he

disagreed with the SNP on Nato. The position changed on Nato. Last but

not least, the SNP have picked up one seat, Marie Todd. Another new

member at Holyrood. They had three last time around. They had been

squeezed this time because of success in the constituency vote.

There are potential issues affecting the list in the North East of

Scotland. We will see if we can get more details from our reporter in

Aberdeen, Stephen Duffer. Quite a strange situation here at the

University sports hall. We should be getting the declaration for the

North East region list in about five minutes. That is not going to be

North East region list in about five happening. It is a partial recount

going on. It was announced about 20 minutes ago by the deputy returning

officer that they had possibly been regularities in accounting. We have

since found out the SNP have complained after finding out that a

relative of Lewis Madonna, a Labour candidate in Aberdeen Central, was

counting in Aberdeen Central and it candidate in Aberdeen Central, was

was then moved to the Aberdeen Donside count and then she was

allowed to for the Aberdeen Donside list. Lewis Madonna is also on the

list for the north-east. The SNP have complained and the deputy

returning officer says that there has not been an issue but it is just

to make sure everything is done properly. It will be some time yet

until we can get this North East regional list. These are words I do

not want to hear at this time of the morning but I suppose we cannot

blame you! Thank you for bringing us that update. We will get an update

from Jackie. Thank you. Why can we not blame him, that is what I want

to know?! Is it a new day for the Scottish political parties? We will

look at where they stand right now Scottish political parties? We will

with some seats yet to declare. 59 for the SNP, gaining one.

Conservatives, massive figure for them, 19. Labour down on 13, they

have lost 13. Scottish Green Party on five. Last three. Liberal

Democrat on four. Gaining one and we do not have an independent. That is

how it is at the moment. The SNP you will recall need 65 seats for the

overall majority at Holyrood will stop Nicola Sturgeon said earlier

she was optimistic they could at that but she did not take it for

granted. It was always going to be a big task to win a majority in a PR

system. We broke the system last time and we hope to do

system. We broke the system last time but we cannot take anything for

granted. We said that throughout the campaign. That is why we emphasised

the both votes strategy. I am optimistic but we will wait and see

how the rest of the results develop. We have got another list from

Central. Scottish Labour... Maud Griffin, Scottish Labour. Graham

Simpson, Conservative. In Liam Smith, Scottish Labour. And Alison

Harris, Conservative. The total number of votes given for each

individual candidate in the number of votes given for each

registered RTE was as follows. RISE socialism and environmentalism, the

Scottish left Alliance, 1000... STUDIO: Will confirm the list. It

was already underway. It is a straightforward split for the

candidate. Four Labour MSPs. Richard Leonard, Monica Lennon, Mark Griffin

and Elaine Smith elected. The Leonard, Monica Lennon, Mark Griffin

Conservative MPs -- MSPs... The last time around, just to be clear, the

Conservatives had only one seat. They have got an extra two. The SNP

last time had three seats in Central Scotland. This time they have none.

Again because of the performance in the constituencies and of course the

boat they received in Central Scotland. Labour up one from three

seats. Up to four. That is the Central Scotland result. And you'll

see on your screen some of the other standing in the Central Scotland

list. No prizes for them. The UK Independence Party and some smaller

Socialist parties list. No prizes for them. The UK

Independence Party and some smaller Socialist parties and others. Let's

go back to the political panel and digests the results we have had. We

will start with you, Jackson. You seem particularly surprised at

picking up not one, not two, but three in Central Scotland.

That up lift in the constituency vote really seriously understated

the whole success of the Conservative strategy, and Ruth

Davidson's appeal to the whiter Scottish electorate to trust her

with their regional vote. Vote. Across Scotland peeled are doing

that. The BBC is in a position to forecast the final outcome of the

election and the forecasting team, including Professor John Curtice

predicts that the SNP will finish including Professor John Curtice

with 63 seats in the Scottish Parliament. That is two short of the

overall majority they have enjoyed over the course of the last

Parliamentary term. The Conservatives would finish in second

place, according to this prediction with 31 seats, now that would be a

record result for the Conservative, their best ever by far, and

crucially, it would mean they finish in second place in the Scottish

Parliament, becoming the main party of opposition, not the official

opposition because we don't have that term at Holyrood in the way we

do at Westminster but certainly the second place party and the largest

party of opposition. Pushing Labour into third lace with 24 seats

according to BBC prediction and the battle for fourth place, The Greens

edge it, with six seats according to this BBC forecast, pushing the

Liberal Democrats into fifth place at Holyrood, with a final tally of

five seats. Now, I should say, should giant line this is a predict

tiong a forecast, I should underline this, this is a prediction, a

forecast, with a small number of seats to declare. First thing to

point out it's a forecast at 7.31am, is not exactly what one might brand

courageous, but welcome, welcome nonetheless. At 63 seats they fall

short, the, they might be able to form a pact with the green bus for

the various reasons, they didn't find them helpful in 2007-11, the

tax policies of The Green are even worse. Frankly they got used to

governing as a majority, and my guess is very firmly they will seek

to do that again. Reaching accommodation on individual issue,

on individual bills and above all, on the budget doing an individual

deal with the various parties involved. And I stress various

parties involved not just the prime opposition party, which look like

being the Conservatives. If this is how it ends up, we are looking at to

being the Conservatives. If this is some extent something of a rainbow

Parliament, certainly a confirmed five party political system, because

each and every one parties would be five party political system, because

entitled to form a group in the Scottish Parliament, with the rights

that go with that. Indeed, and I think that makes the, the

calculations about how a government presumably led by Nicola Sturgeon

will get its work through. It is not like 2007, when the SNP was then a

small minority, it's a big minority, over just short. It only needs to

work with one party at a time. Last time it needed to work with two to

get anything done. It puts in a strong position, specially when you

hoild the financial strings as John Swinney no doubt will be doing. Let

us go back to our political panel, because it is not just The Greens

that would be in a position to do deals with a Scottish Government

short of a majority to this extent, the Liberal Democrats could too, you

are firmly opposed to the SNP's position on the constitution, but

would that preclude deals on other area, to get some of your business

done at Holyrood? I would repeat what I said earlier, that if the SNP

have lost an overall majority, that is a material change of

circumstances for the independence question. But, on the programme of

Government, over the next five year, if you are forecast at 7.30 in the

morning is accurate, then we would be constituting a group in Scottish

Parliament led by Willie Rennie, I think he has done a remarkable job.

That is the number you have had in the last Parliament. It punched

above its weight, on nurseries, on sently say, on police, Willie has

made his name on that. There will be every indication he will be

emboldened to deliver as much of our manifesto as possible. When I was in

the Scottish Parliament we tried to work progressively. What is going to

the Scottish Parliament we tried to be interesting if the SNP want to

get their tax freeze through, they will have to rely on kith votes for

this, which will be interesting in the Scottish Parliament. You say a

material change of circumstances in the Scottish Parliament. You say a

the constitution, but the only material change according to these

numbers it isn't just the SNP that would provie a -- provide a majority

for independence, in the Parliament, it would be the SNP, together with

The Greens. It would be the Hajjty Government which put forward the

referendum, which is argued and many people predicted an even bigger

majority in this election, at the start, when I was doing the

broadcast at the start. If this forecast is direct they have lost

the majority, that has to be considered as a material change of

circumstances, for the largest party in Scotland. I congratulate them for

doing that, it is remarkable. What is a material change of

circumstances is that the majority Government has lost its majority.

That appears to be the outcome of this election an historic third term

but a loss of your overall majority. That is a setback. If the BBC's

assessment is correct, that is where we are, that is the First Minister

said, as I have said many times over the last 12 hours, to win a majority

with this system in the first place is hard, to try and repeat that is

extremely difficult indeed. Now, if it moves to a minority Government

situation, I am sure two things will happen. One is the SNP will work

with other parties, in order to make sure legislation gets through. But

of course, more importantly, much of what government does doesn't require

legislation, it requires different sorts of actions and decision make,

we saw that in the 2007 Government extremely well indeed. So, let us

wait and see what the final numbers look like. I think they are going to

be pretty close to this. Just, can I correct Jeremy on one thing when he

talks about a tax freeze policy. We want to take more people of of tax

at the bottom end than the current UK Government want to do we tant to

take, we want to increase the 40 pence rate. Think Jeremy has his

technical facts wrong again as usual. As far as the rates for

income tax, the only parties, that agree on the rates of income tax is

the SNP and the Conservatives. OK, I don't want to get into that in any

more detail. I will come back to Anas Sarwar and Jackson Carlaw.

Well, Glenn, we now have that prediction from the BBC. Off the

overall result for Scotland. This is a prediction covering the

constituency, and also those regional seats. Remember this isn't

a result, but an indication of likely seats based on the results we

have so far. Let us see what the Scottish Parliament chamber would

look like if that prediction pro-s correct. We could see the SNP --

proves. We would see them with 63 seats. The next biggest party, this

block of blue over here, that is the Conservatives, with 31 seats, and

then, lain. On 24 seats. That is them in red. The Greens on six and

the Liberal Democrats on five. But, the bottom line is this. If this

prediction is right, the SNP fails to win an overall majority while the

Conservatives will displace Labour as the second party in Scotland. The

SNP back in control at Holyrood, with Nicola Sturgeon back at the

helm as First Minister of Scotland but it would be a minority

Government. Remember, this is just a prediction at this stage from the

BBC, but a fascinating insight into how the result may stack up, by

later in the morning, based on what we have seen so far.

Thanks David. Back to our political panel, Anas Sarwar of the Labour

Party. When you see it like that, it really demonstrates the shift we are

witnessing in Scott Brown Scottish politics, the Conservatives with a

bigger block than they have had before and Labour down to something

of a rump compared to what you have been used to in the past. Look, it

is very grim reading devastating seeing that graphic,

would be the honest assessment. It is a very difficult night. One plus

point from it, we are looking for plus points, is Richard Lennon and

Monica are two new MPs. We will have two new MPs. Not a retread like you

as somebody describes you, somebody other than me. In fairness he

apologised for that, when came in the I am retread. He didn't

apologise on air. Think I am younger than Jackson. But that is not a

compliment. You forget in 2007, it was, you know, a cosy coalition in

some ways between the SNP and the Tories that got much of the SNP's

work through in that Parliament and Jeremy is spot on, you might not

have much of an opposition when it comes to the big decisions because

you might have a cosy consensus from the Tories and the SNP. It suits

them to keep going on about the constitution. He is getting his own

back now. I didn't quite apologise. What Ruth Davidson said if she

became the Leader of the Opposition the first thing we wold challenge is

the named person. We know the Liberal Democrats started to have

doubts about this policy will be extraordinary if a minority SNP

Government seeks to force through a policy once it has lost its

majority. Can I say one other thing, if they have lost the election they

need to have a serious examination of their election campaign and I

wonder... Lost the election If they have lost their majority I wonder if

the position of the chief executive is tenable. Being Peter Murrell, the

husband of the leader. It is so Tunis Africa the Tories to want to

tackle the named persons legislation, to protect... Deeply

unpopular. It is sound, supported by all the professionals. Deeply

unpopular. I think if that is the, if that is the issue, if that is the

policy that the Tories would want to attack, think it speaks volumes

about how we out of touch they remain, no withstanding this result.

Labour during the campaign having supported that legislation called

for it to be reviewed. Is the SNP in a position if it is indeed a

minority Government, in the coming years, prepared to concede that much

given the level of concern that has been expressed about this policy? I

think Nicola Sturgeon and even in the SNP Government have always said

they will take onboard any sensible suggestions, they will listen to any

sensible criticisms. Might it need a tweak? When you have a policy

supported by the professionals concerned about child protection, to

have this degree of opportunism on this subject, I find it

mind-boggling. It was a key part of the election campaigned and it would

appear we have achieved a considerable result in leading the

opposition to this policy. Think we are entitle -- entitled to pursue

that. That will be a debate for the Parliament when it gets back, but

Jackson Carlaw has put it on the agenda as a priority. Brian Taylor

how many seats to come? How many declarations are we awaiting? The

one constituency, Midlothian etc, where we expect Christine Graham to

win, and we expect, three, west of Scotland, south of Scotland, and

North East Scotland regions, I am not going to stand here and sit here

and say John Curtice's prediction is wrong, I think it is right. That is

where we are going to end up. A couple of ghents on what we have

heard there. Bow to Stuart and his support for the names person's

legislation, I have also heard Nicola Sturgeon sounding a bit luke

warm on the subject of that, saying for example, it wasn't mandatory,

saying it was something that could be open to review. Let us put it no

hiring than this. If it is a case of dumping that or getting the budget

there there is no question of what would happen. If there is pressure

upon that and it is going to come from the kith, who, for example,

opposition to that policy drew huge applause from those who were there,

that maybe misplaced, it may be a wrong priority, but that is the way

the country is think, if they have that number of seats in the

Parliament they have a bit of clout. It comes down to getting the budget

there. If you are keen on results and we certainly will are, the west

of Scotland region is due to declare very shortly.

And what you can see there, are pictures from the west of Scotland

count, so news clearly filtering through to those who fought hard to

win places in Parliament. The Greens are among those looking happy, in

the west of Scotland. Ladies and gentlemen... Patrick Harvey has

turned up at that count. Here we are getting the results.

The total number of votes given to each of the registered parties was

as follows, RISE 15 to two. -- 1522. Scottish Christian Party, 2391.

Scottish Conservatives and Unionist Party, 71 528. Scottish Green Party,

17 218. Scottish Labour Party, 72 544. Scottish Liberal Democrats,

1209 seven. Scottish Libertarian Party, 484. Scottish National Party,

135827. Solidarity, 2609. The UK Independence Party, 5856. The total

number of ballot papers rejected was 524. The total number of votes was

three to 600. -- 320 2600. Turnout of 59%. The candidates elected to

serve in the Scottish Parliament as members for the West Scotland region

are as follows... Neil Bradley, Scottish Labour Party, Jamie Green,

Scottish Conservatives and Unionist Party, Mary fee, Scottish Labour

Party, Maurice Golden, Scottish Conservatives and Unionist Party,

Ken Macintosh, Scottish Labour Party, Maurice Corrie, Scottish

Conservatives and Unionist Party, and Ross Greer, Scottish Green

Party. Thank you very much. In the West of Scotland, three seats for

the Conservatives and three for Labour, one for the Scottish Green

Party. None for the Liberal Democrats and indeed for the SNP.

Who have secured almost as many votes as Labour and the

Conservatives put together, but no prizes for that result. Because once

again, their performance in the constituencies. These regional lists

are designed to help balance out the Parliament and give the parties the

number of seats closer to the over all share of the vote. Let's confirm

the West of Scotland result. Three Conservative MSPs.

None of them have previously served at Holyrood. Labour... All MSPs in

the last Parliament. Ken Macintosh, after losing eastward, has made it

back to Holly Ruud on the regional list. And the Green party, Ross

Greer. A breakthrough in the West of Scotland for the Green party. We

have also had the final constituency result in this Holyrood election

2016. It is for the Midlothian constituency. And here is the

declaration. Michelle Valentine, Scottish Conservatives and Unionist,

ten 163. Chris Chapman, Scottish Liberal Democrats, 3686. Fiona

Deville, Scottish Labour, 5701. Christine Grahame, Scottish National

Party, 160 31. You have been elected to serve as a member for the

constituency. The nub of ballot papers rejected and not counted by

me at this election was as follows, 156. Voting for more than one

candidate, 15... STUDIO: The final constituency result. Holding

Midlothian 's, Christine Grahame. Re-elected with over 16,000 votes.

Michelle Valentine is second. Labour's Fiona Dugdale, no relation

to the party leader as far as I am aware, third place. And Chris

Chapman in fourth place. The turnout, 59%. The SNP with a 45%

share. The Conservatives on 29. Labour on 16. Compared with 2011,

the SNP up. The Conservatives up by a lot more. Labour down slightly and

the Liberal Democrats are the big losers, down 18%. A swing of 17%

from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. The SNP holding

Midlothian 's. Let's have a look at the totals so far. -- Midlothian

South. It does not look like the SNP are going to get an overall majority

but they have got 60 seats and they have won the election

with four Parliamentary. -- Parliamentary seats. We said at the

start of the night it would be dramatic. That is quite a big

occasion. A couple of regions are still yet to declare, to give us the

overall picture. We should bear in mind all the time that we have got

the balance of all at which really matters. Nicola Sturgeon will be the

First Minister. The SNP have won the election. They will be short of an

overall majority but they can drive to Govan without really all that

much trouble. -- Govan. -- to be governing. A dreadful night for the

Labour Party, quite appalling night. They will need to regroup. I doubt

they will change the leader. There is not an appetite to do so. Kezia

Dugdale appears determined to continue and build upon what she

admitted is a difficult result. Difficult for the Liberal Democrats,

falling behind the greens. And with the Labour meltdown in Scotland, we

can compare it with Wales. James Williams is in Cardiff with news of

the assembly election. It looks like Labour will remain in power like

they did at the beginning of devolution. UEFA absolutely. The

opposition parties were pitching this as a change election. But after

ten hours of counting, Glenn, little has changed. 40 seats, 39 have

returned exactly the same assembly members, the same parties. But one

big change, Leanne Wood taking Rhondda from the Welsh Labour big

beast, Leighton Andrews. A big victory for her party. But as for

the rest of the picture it is pretty much as you were. Labour expected a

very tough night. But it seems they will return with around 28 seats.

Down from 30 but a lot better than expected. It seems the Conservatives

have had the worst night. They were gunning for a lot of the Labour -