Part 2 Election 2016


Part 2

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Edwards for continuing coverage of Bbc Election 2016.

:00:00.:00:25.

A very good morning. Welcome to the BBC Election Centre. We will be here

:00:26.:00:32.

throughout the day, bringing you up to date with what is happening

:00:33.:00:36.

around the country after yesterday's elections. In Scotland, for example,

:00:37.:00:43.

the SNP celebrates an historic third victory. They have two short of an

:00:44.:00:46.

overall majority in their seat number.

:00:47.:00:51.

An excellent night for the Scottish Conservatives in the Parliamentary

:00:52.:00:54.

elections, their leader, Ruth Davidson, won a seat in Edinburgh

:00:55.:00:57.

Central. The Scottish Labour Party was pushed into third place, a very

:00:58.:01:03.

poor result for Scottish Labour. A different story for Labour and

:01:04.:01:07.

Wales, they won 29 seats and will hold onto power. That is a very good

:01:08.:01:12.

result for Welsh Labour, better than many had predicted. It was also, by

:01:13.:01:17.

the way, in Wales, a very good night for Ukip, who have won 60 in the

:01:18.:01:22.

National Assembly for Wales. The Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood

:01:23.:01:26.

gained a notable win in the Rhondda from the Labour Party, but elsewhere

:01:27.:01:30.

Plaid failed to make gains. With two thirds of the English council

:01:31.:01:34.

results in, I think we are seeing that Labour have not said that the

:01:35.:01:38.

kind of losses that some in the party with the ring. The only answer

:01:39.:01:42.

that have slipped from their control is Dudley, they have held onto quite

:01:43.:01:45.

a few others like Southampton, Exeter and Redditch.

:01:46.:01:50.

They have started counting the votes in the London Assembly this morning

:01:51.:01:53.

for the marrow of London, in a few minutes the Prime Minister is

:01:54.:01:56.

expected to speak in the town where they have been making one game,

:01:57.:02:04.

Peterborough. -- they have started counting the votes in the London

:02:05.:02:07.

Assembly this morning for the Mayor of London.

:02:08.:02:11.

With that in mind, B Brilliant Jo Coburn, who will be with us

:02:12.:02:13.

throughout the day with her analysis. -- let me bring in Jo

:02:14.:02:19.

Coburn. We expect the Prime Minister to speak in Peterborough soon, just

:02:20.:02:25.

a thought on how the Conservatives have done? They will be very

:02:26.:02:29.

pleased, at this point in the electoral cycle you would expect the

:02:30.:02:33.

governing party on a historically, to have made significant losses. It

:02:34.:02:37.

is time when the opposition make significant gains, that has not

:02:38.:02:41.

happened for Labour. The Tories will be celebrating the results big-time

:02:42.:02:46.

because, historically, they have gone into second place ahead of

:02:47.:02:51.

Labour under their leader, Ruth Davidson. You will hear an awful lot

:02:52.:02:55.

from the Conservatives. For David Cameron, when you think he is

:02:56.:02:59.

leading a party at the moment that is deeply divided over Europe,

:03:00.:03:03.

ministers were taking chunks out of each other, six years of rule and

:03:04.:03:09.

austerity, you might have expected a very gloomy morning for the

:03:10.:03:12.

Conservatives, but they will be able to look to places like Peterborough,

:03:13.:03:17.

pointed to Scotland and say, actually, the people here have not

:03:18.:03:21.

turned against us and have not gone to Labour in big numbers. They will

:03:22.:03:25.

be playing up, particularly, the result in Scotland. Before we hear

:03:26.:03:31.

from the Prime Minister, let's join Emily Maitlis. Give us the broad

:03:32.:03:35.

picture of the local elections? Let me take you to the scoreboard.

:03:36.:03:39.

Labour have the bulk of the councillors, don't be surprised, 49%

:03:40.:03:44.

of those standing tonight or last night were Labour, down 25. The

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Conservatives have made eight games, the Lib Dems on 13, the independent

:03:50.:03:52.

are down nine, we have seen the gains from Ukip coming from a

:03:53.:03:58.

standing start, they did not stand in many places last time. A less

:03:59.:04:02.

good night for the Green Party and no change for the residents.

:04:03.:04:07.

Looking at the councils, very little has changed hands. Labour has lost

:04:08.:04:15.

one, the Conservatives have put one on, one has gone on to home

:04:16.:04:20.

territory. This is interesting, I will bring it to you in full form, a

:04:21.:04:25.

win for the Conservatives in Peterborough, a majority of two, but

:04:26.:04:30.

do not be too confused. There have been boundary changes, it was an

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all-out election, all the seat up for election and the boundary

:04:36.:04:39.

changes may well have helped propel the Conservatives into a winning

:04:40.:04:44.

position. They used to have it in 2012, it went home, they have taken

:04:45.:04:49.

it back. The story of the night if you look at what is happening in

:04:50.:04:53.

terms of the seats, a good night for the Lib Dems, they are up five. No

:04:54.:04:57.

moves to the Conservatives, Labour and the independent are down. In

:04:58.:05:03.

Kirklees, we were looking to see whether Labour could win an overall

:05:04.:05:07.

majority. On a good night, pushing forward as the opposition, they may

:05:08.:05:13.

have taken this. It is a hung council, are short by one, they are

:05:14.:05:17.

the biggest party. They needed one more to turn this thread. The story

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overnight in England has been how little change we have seen an

:05:25.:05:29.

individual seats. No movement for Labour, the Conservatives up one,

:05:30.:05:34.

the Green Party down one. That is the picture this morning,

:05:35.:05:37.

where the English local councils are concerned. There are more to come,

:05:38.:05:42.

some have not declared. I mentioned the fate of the parties in Scotland

:05:43.:05:46.

and Wales, let's join Jeremy to hear more about what is going on.

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We were talking 12 hours ago about the fact that the very impressive

:05:51.:05:55.

performance in the 2015 general election by the SNP suggested that

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they would build on their 2011 Parliamentary performance in

:06:00.:06:04.

Scotland, and wipe even more yellow across the map. It has not happened.

:06:05.:06:08.

A very interesting result in Scotland. To some extent the SNP has

:06:09.:06:13.

been held back, a bit frustrated, maybe, in their aim of getting an

:06:14.:06:18.

overall majority. This is the map now, a Liberal Democrat seat that

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was not their 24 hours ago, some Labour red that people might not

:06:24.:06:26.

have thought would be there. Let's flash the gains, you can see what is

:06:27.:06:32.

going on. In Dumfriesshire, that is the additional Conservative seat, it

:06:33.:06:36.

is creating a blue-collar around the bottom of Scotland. North East Fife,

:06:37.:06:40.

the Liberal Democrat gain here came out of the blue in the middle of the

:06:41.:06:45.

night. Not forgetting huge SNP gains in and around Glasgow. A game for

:06:46.:06:51.

the Conservatives who have had a very good night in the Scotland. I

:06:52.:06:56.

will zoom in, you can see the map. One thing we noticed was that in

:06:57.:07:02.

places where the Yes vote in the referendum in 2040 was very

:07:03.:07:06.

powerful, the SNP vote correlated. It sounds like it stands to reason,

:07:07.:07:10.

but it might be that in other parts of the country the Association of

:07:11.:07:14.

the SNP so directly with independence has hurt them. Not in

:07:15.:07:18.

Glasgow, this wave of yellow that you can see.

:07:19.:07:24.

This is the new Scottish Parliament, 2016, all the numbers are written.

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If you are in Scotland you had a vote direct leave for a

:07:29.:07:32.

representative elected locally in a seat, and a second vote that went to

:07:33.:07:37.

the regional list. Let's see it all put together. 65 needed for an

:07:38.:07:42.

overall majority, the SNP is just short with 63.

:07:43.:07:47.

In second place, this is a big part of the story in Scotland, the

:07:48.:07:51.

Conservatives are motoring past Labour. Let's look at the Labour

:07:52.:07:56.

numbers, 24. The Green Party are in fourth and the Lib Dems in fifth.

:07:57.:08:00.

One of the first things we found out was that these two areas of islands,

:08:01.:08:06.

Orkney and Shetland, remaining Lib Dem. With the exception of North

:08:07.:08:09.

East Fife it was not a good night for them.

:08:10.:08:12.

These are the shares in the constituency party. This is roughly

:08:13.:08:16.

what the SNP got five years ago, 47 or 48 ascent. As they were last

:08:17.:08:22.

time, remember last time it was regarded as a stunning result, it is

:08:23.:08:27.

just that they went even better in the general election so there was

:08:28.:08:29.

expectation a might do better than this in the last 24 hours.

:08:30.:08:34.

Labour pushed down in the constituency is just ahead of the

:08:35.:08:38.

Conservatives. But the way the system delivered the MSPs to the

:08:39.:08:42.

chamber it paid that the Conservatives slightly. Lib Dems on

:08:43.:08:48.

8% only in the constituencies. -- it favoured the Conservatives

:08:49.:08:53.

slightly. Labour down 9% in five years ago, the Conservatives up

:08:54.:08:57.

almost as much. Let's have a look at the share change in the list system,

:08:58.:09:03.

the second vote in Scotland, the SNP was not quite as high as in the

:09:04.:09:06.

constituencies. The Conservatives were very much more, a strong

:09:07.:09:13.

second-place overlay, 20 32 Labour's 19. The Greens, not really

:09:14.:09:18.

representative in the constituency so much, a good showing ahead of the

:09:19.:09:22.

Lib Dems, five for the Lib Dems and Ukip on 2%. And the changes what

:09:23.:09:35.

stands out. Conservative SNP 's -- SNP is steady as they go. The

:09:36.:09:40.

Conservatives packing in the votes when they did not expect it.

:09:41.:09:44.

Scotland gave us a lot of interest over the last 12 hours or so.

:09:45.:09:50.

I am just wondering if we can just remind people of what Jeremy Corbyn

:09:51.:09:54.

was saying a short while ago, if you are just joining us it will be

:09:55.:10:00.

something that you may have heard. If you're just joining us now, it is

:10:01.:10:04.

worth reminding you that Jeremy Corbyn says all across England we

:10:05.:10:08.

were getting predictions that Labour would lose councils, we didn't, we

:10:09.:10:13.

hung on and grew support in a lot of places. That was just a short while

:10:14.:10:17.

ago. And a note on the picture in the Welsh Assembly, where Labour did

:10:18.:10:21.

better than some people thought and it has ended up on a 28 or 29 seats,

:10:22.:10:27.

Carwyn Jones, the First Minister macro, saying he will talk to the

:10:28.:10:32.

Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru about a possible working arrangement. He

:10:33.:10:35.

can't work with the Conservatives or Ukip. By the way, if we look at some

:10:36.:10:40.

of the new members of the Welsh Assembly from Ukip, they include

:10:41.:10:44.

Neil Hamilton, the former Conservative minister, Mark

:10:45.:10:49.

Reckless, the former MP, former Conservative MP, and Nathan Gill, an

:10:50.:10:55.

MEP for Ukip at the moment, the leader of Ukip in Wales. They will

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be joined by others. They will not be talking to Labour about a

:11:01.:11:03.

possible working with Asian chip because Carwyn Jones has already

:11:04.:11:10.

said he will not be doing that. -- a possible working relationship,

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because Carwyn Jones has already said. Professor John Curtice has

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been with us overnight. I would suppose that I would start with

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local elections, and your take on how the Conservatives and Labour

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have done? I think the truth is that Labour

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will be the slightly happier party this morning than the Conservatives.

:11:31.:11:35.

It is all to do with expectations. We were told that the party could

:11:36.:11:43.

expect to lose at least some seats, 150 was bandied around, that is

:11:44.:11:48.

based on the fact that Labour was behind the Conservatives in the

:11:49.:11:52.

National opinion polls, that is what recent by-election performance are

:11:53.:11:56.

pointed to. In the end, I think the Labour Party will be able to say

:11:57.:12:00.

that, we more or less, in the end, hung onto most of what we were

:12:01.:12:03.

trying to defend. Even though many of you told is that what we were

:12:04.:12:07.

defending was a relatively good year, is it not a relatively good

:12:08.:12:12.

performance by us? There will be a germ of truth in that, although what

:12:13.:12:16.

we should also bear in mind is that once we look at the votes casting

:12:17.:12:19.

keyboards, although Labour has indeed gone up I read 3.5 or four

:12:20.:12:26.

points compared to last year, as it was they are about four points

:12:27.:12:34.

adrift of where they were four years ago in 2012. The Conservatives, in

:12:35.:12:38.

contrast, a few weeks ago we would have been expecting them to make a

:12:39.:12:43.

number of gains. When you look at their vote as compared with 2012, it

:12:44.:12:48.

has flat lined. The performance in 2012 was not regarded as very good

:12:49.:12:51.

and the party seems to have done articulate badly in what I call the

:12:52.:12:56.

classic Tory shire areas of the South of England. It may be a

:12:57.:13:00.

question that David Cameron will have to ask himself, has his

:13:01.:13:06.

position on remaining inside the EU and his decision to effectively

:13:07.:13:10.

split his party on the eve of these elections meant that, particularly

:13:11.:13:14.

in the Tory shires, he has cost his party some seats? A quick word about

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Peterborough, he is going there and clearly he will be very pleased

:13:21.:13:25.

about the results. I'll be adding any qualifications to that? Emily

:13:26.:13:31.

mentioned boundary changes. -- are we adding? I think it is the

:13:32.:13:36.

exception that proves the rule. Peterborough was no overall control.

:13:37.:13:39.

There have been boundary changes, as a result of which it was estimated

:13:40.:13:43.

that the Conservatives would have already been in control of

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Peterborough if those changes already in place, the Conservatives

:13:47.:13:52.

hang -- have hung on to the 31 seats that it was estimated they would

:13:53.:13:54.

already have been controlling under the new boundaries. Peterborough is

:13:55.:14:00.

one of those places where the local Government boundary commission has

:14:01.:14:03.

intervened and said there will be a whole council election a new

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boundaries, it makes the whole thing more difficult.

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Before we leave you, a quick word about any signs of what is going on

:14:11.:14:17.

in the London mayoral election? We have the people who are responsible

:14:18.:14:21.

for counting the London website, they are very nicely putting up a

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bar chart of the total votes for each of the candidates as the

:14:26.:14:29.

ballots are verified. They are being counted electronically in London.

:14:30.:14:33.

There are no numbers attached, but so far it is pretty clear that Sadiq

:14:34.:14:37.

Khan is ahead. Unless the ballots being counted so far are very

:14:38.:14:42.

atypical, it is probably a very good steer that, as opinion polls

:14:43.:14:51.

suggested, Mr Khan will be the next Mayor of London. If people are

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looking at that and think it is the guaranteed result, what would you

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say? It is a sample of the ballots being counted so far, there is no

:15:00.:15:03.

guarantee that it is representative but the truth is that the bar chart

:15:04.:15:07.

has looked like that for quite a this morning. Thank you. I have been

:15:08.:15:11.

joined by Lord Falconer, the former Labour minister.

:15:12.:15:17.

I have been joined by Lord Falconer. What are you make of Labour's

:15:18.:15:28.

performance? I think Scotland is an incredibly significant result. It is

:15:29.:15:34.

the continuing flowing out of what happened in the referendum. I think

:15:35.:15:38.

in Wales, I think we might have lost one seat net in the Welsh Assembly.

:15:39.:15:46.

And that I think is a good result after 17 years in power. In England

:15:47.:15:51.

and Wales, in England at least, it feels like a mixed picture in

:15:52.:15:58.

relation to the results. We have done well in some places, lost

:15:59.:16:02.

ground in other places. But you do not get the sense of the country, in

:16:03.:16:09.

the local elections, moving strongly in any particular direction. One

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feels, in what has been an incredibly turbulent political time

:16:13.:16:16.

for both political parties, one gets the sense, except maybe in Scotland,

:16:17.:16:23.

that people haven't made up their mind one way or the other about what

:16:24.:16:29.

is the direction politically. How much of a test has this been Jeremy

:16:30.:16:35.

Corbyn's leadership, bearing in mind this is eight months, first year of

:16:36.:16:39.

his term in office? Well, it is a test, he's the leader of the Labour

:16:40.:16:46.

Party. Has he passed it? Well, the results are very uncertain, I think,

:16:47.:16:52.

in the sense that no clear sense of direction is coming from the public.

:16:53.:16:56.

The public are I suspect looking at politics at the moment and things

:16:57.:17:01.

are very, very unusual in politics at the moment and they are wondering

:17:02.:17:06.

what to do. The impression I get is that maybe they are not leaving

:17:07.:17:11.

necessarily their traditional landscape, except in Scotland, where

:17:12.:17:14.

I think there is a significant change. Putting Scotland to one

:17:15.:17:20.

side, because to some extent that ship had sailed before Jeremy Corbyn

:17:21.:17:23.

became leader, although in a sense it has gone backwards since he

:17:24.:17:27.

became leader, because you have gone to third place. I think your right

:17:28.:17:31.

to point that out, it is a bad result. I think it has a great deal

:17:32.:17:36.

to do with the template for Scotland, in the constitutional

:17:37.:17:41.

issue, union or not, and in a way, the Tories... But the Conservatives

:17:42.:17:47.

clearly are unionist, not backing independence. That's exactly right.

:17:48.:17:56.

But in England, one of the MPs, Jo Cox, has said it was a weak,

:17:57.:18:00.

disappointing performance. She is not hostile to Jeremy Corbyn's

:18:01.:18:06.

leadership but if she is saying that, she was expecting big games,

:18:07.:18:11.

so why did big gains not happen? I don't think big gains were ever

:18:12.:18:16.

going happen. This is a period where there is immense uncertainty

:18:17.:18:18.

politically. I think there is everything to play for the Labour

:18:19.:18:23.

Party, because the Tories are in a real mess. Why didn't you do better?

:18:24.:18:28.

Because I think that the public, it is this period of political

:18:29.:18:32.

uncertainty and turmoil. The European Union referendum, where we

:18:33.:18:38.

are going to next as politicians, raises real uncertainties in

:18:39.:18:44.

people's minds. Liz Kendall and Michael Duggan, two Labour MPs, have

:18:45.:18:47.

said that Labour needed to win hundreds of seats to show that they

:18:48.:18:52.

had any chance of victory in 2020. I disagree with that proposition. I

:18:53.:18:57.

don't think we were ever going to when hundreds and hundreds of seats.

:18:58.:19:03.

That just isn't the way that politics has felt in the build-up to

:19:04.:19:05.

this election. Away politics has felt to me is, the public are

:19:06.:19:12.

watching and seeing how the politicians are acting, and reacting

:19:13.:19:18.

to what is a very turbulence time both economically in the world and

:19:19.:19:21.

in particular in the European Union referendum. John McDonnell was

:19:22.:19:25.

quoted this morning as saying to those who would like Mr Corbyn may

:19:26.:19:31.

be to move aside, to put up or shot up, if they are intending to

:19:32.:19:34.

challenge - do you think that is the right message? Yes, at the moment he

:19:35.:19:40.

won the leadership by a massive majority in September. The focus of

:19:41.:19:44.

the Labour Party has got to be upwards, not inwards. It has got to

:19:45.:19:49.

be focusing first of all on the European Union referendum. I think

:19:50.:19:53.

the public are utterly fed up with division within the Labour Party. In

:19:54.:19:58.

a way, I don't know if it was on your programme, but the vision of

:19:59.:20:10.

Ken Livingstone and John Mann having what appeared to be almost a

:20:11.:20:14.

punch-up. It was not edifying, was it? Not edifying at all. The idea of

:20:15.:20:20.

anti-Semitism needs to be dealt with. But I think the division

:20:21.:20:26.

within the party makes the public despair, as well as the party. So

:20:27.:20:29.

there would be no leadership challenge at this point? I don't

:20:30.:20:34.

think that is remotely the focus. I think it would be very, very wrong.

:20:35.:20:37.

We have now had the final piece of the jigsaw in terms of the Welsh

:20:38.:20:42.

Assembly, the final list selections have just been announced. I am going

:20:43.:20:48.

to go to Jeremy to give us a full picture on the National Assembly.

:20:49.:20:53.

Yes, I thought I was going to be giving you a forecast, but we have

:20:54.:20:57.

now been able to put together the final picture for the Welsh

:20:58.:21:00.

Assembly. I can show you that now. The Assembly chamber, this is the

:21:01.:21:09.

result... 29 seats for Labour, one down on the figure from five years

:21:10.:21:14.

ago. They have dropped right a lot of votes actually but maybe not been

:21:15.:21:18.

punished overly for it. In second place, have the Welsh nationalists,

:21:19.:21:21.

Plaid Cymru. Significant victory for Leanne Wood in that one particular

:21:22.:21:27.

constituency. And then the Conservatives, just one seat behind

:21:28.:21:32.

Plaid Cymru. And filling in the map for you, Ukip, in fourth place. This

:21:33.:21:37.

looks like another bad days for the Liberal Democrats who are down to

:21:38.:21:42.

one seat in the Welsh Assembly, and that seat is broken and Radnorshire.

:21:43.:21:49.

There is this one significant moment in terms of the constituency vote in

:21:50.:21:58.

Wales, with Leanne Wood is winning the Rhondda. Right in the middle of

:21:59.:22:01.

this sea of red in south Wales, which gives them a rather nice

:22:02.:22:05.

foothold, maybe something to build on in the period come. There it is,

:22:06.:22:12.

the map as it is now, flashing, the only change. And of course, the

:22:13.:22:19.

abiding impression given by this is how little has changed on the map.

:22:20.:22:25.

But changes in the share of the vote, as we shall now see. For

:22:26.:22:30.

Labour first of all, remember, in Wales, you have to votes, one for

:22:31.:22:35.

the constituencies, first-past-the-post, the second

:22:36.:22:38.

going to a regional list. And here we have Labour on 35%. The

:22:39.:22:45.

Conservatives and Plaid Cymru roughly tied on 21%. Those are the

:22:46.:22:49.

first-past-the-post part of the election. It does not suit Ukip at

:22:50.:22:58.

all. So this 12% for Ukip did not go very far. They did not get a single

:22:59.:23:06.

bit of purple on the map. The Green is slightly disfavoured. Moving onto

:23:07.:23:14.

the change in constituency share... Labour only dropped one seat but

:23:15.:23:20.

they were down 8%. They have quite a lot of headroom in that 2011 vote,

:23:21.:23:25.

quite a lot of votes they could lose before they started actually losing

:23:26.:23:32.

seats. This rather impressive score for Ukip, as I say, it did not

:23:33.:23:35.

really help them because it is first-past-the-post. Also, back in

:23:36.:23:41.

2011, they were not really at the races. There is that second vote in

:23:42.:23:46.

Wales, which goes to a regional list. The two votes work together

:23:47.:23:50.

and one almost offsets the other. The list votes compensate for seats

:23:51.:23:56.

not achieved in the constituency part of it. This is what helped Ukip

:23:57.:24:02.

get their seven seats. Labour still very much in the lead in Wales.

:24:03.:24:16.

So that was the list share in Wales. It shows Labour dominant. The map

:24:17.:24:23.

reinforces that. But they have dropped since 2011. They dropped in

:24:24.:24:32.

this part of the contest as well. Ukip, up 8%. So, the crucial thing

:24:33.:24:39.

here is that Ukip actually enter the Assembly for the first time, under

:24:40.:24:44.

the list system, which allows some element of proportional voting.

:24:45.:24:51.

Labour have been hit here but not so much as to cause the number of

:24:52.:24:54.

Assembly members they had to drop at all. They remain the biggest party,

:24:55.:25:00.

with 29. They will have to find somebody to govern with, but they

:25:01.:25:03.

are still set fair. Will it raise questions again, Jeremy, with this

:25:04.:25:07.

system that they have in Wales, people say, even if you have big

:25:08.:25:14.

movements in votes, actually, in seat results, often you do not see

:25:15.:25:18.

much of a change, and in this one, we see Labour's vote going down but

:25:19.:25:23.

seats more or less the same? It is a very peculiar system. Same in

:25:24.:25:30.

Scotland. The more seats you get, the fewer seats you then get from

:25:31.:25:34.

the regional list. So you get punished for winning constituencies.

:25:35.:25:39.

It acts as a cushion when a party falls, which is what it has done for

:25:40.:25:44.

Labour in Wales. It acts as a drag on a party which soars, as it has

:25:45.:25:49.

done for the SNP in Scotland. That is deliberate but you do sometimes

:25:50.:25:53.

get rather strange effects. You would think Labour would lose more

:25:54.:25:56.

seats, but they haven't. We can now go to Cardiff bay, and to the

:25:57.:26:03.

Senedd, to speak to Sian Lloyd. What are people saying this morning?

:26:04.:26:15.

Well, Assembly members are already being sworn in in the Senedd behind

:26:16.:26:19.

me. We are getting a sense of the dust settling, now that we have had

:26:20.:26:23.

all the results in. It was interesting to hear Lord Falconer

:26:24.:26:26.

talking to you earlier, saying that he thought it was a good result here

:26:27.:26:31.

in Wales. I don't know whether the Welsh Conservatives will be thinking

:26:32.:26:35.

that, because they have now fallen to third place behind Plaid Cymru,

:26:36.:26:43.

having 11 seats, Plaid Cymru with 12, and last time, the Conservatives

:26:44.:26:48.

had 14. They were riding the crest of a wave following general election

:26:49.:26:52.

results, and they have failed to capitalise on that to an extent.

:26:53.:26:55.

They have failed to win the seats but they were targeting. Welsh

:26:56.:27:02.

Liberal Democrats are in a very strange position. Kirsty Williams,

:27:03.:27:07.

the leader, she increased her majority in her constituency. It was

:27:08.:27:13.

a great personal result for her for cashiers now the only Liberal

:27:14.:27:15.

Democrat some remember hearing Wales. And we know that this Senedd

:27:16.:27:21.

is going to have a different feel now for its fifth term of the

:27:22.:27:24.

National Assembly for Wales, because there will be seven members of Ukip

:27:25.:27:29.

here, including Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless, the former

:27:30.:27:36.

Conservative MPs. Ukip say this morning, we're going to bring a

:27:37.:27:40.

breath of fresh air to the National Assembly, it has been a bit too cosy

:27:41.:27:44.

here for too long. So we wait to see what impact they will bring. Labour

:27:45.:27:49.

remain the dominant party hearing Wales, with the 29th votes. Leanne

:27:50.:28:00.

Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, a great personal victory for her in

:28:01.:28:07.

that seat. I have spoken to members of the Labour Party this morning,

:28:08.:28:10.

and they are saying, it was a personal victory for Leanne Wood

:28:11.:28:13.

because of her fantastic profile that she has now, having been on the

:28:14.:28:19.

UK media as well as on the Welsh scene. But really they are only be

:28:20.:28:26.

licking their wounds over that. However, they do feel, Welsh Labour,

:28:27.:28:29.

that they have done better than they thought they were going to do a few

:28:30.:28:34.

weeks ago. Sian Lloyd, thank you very much, for now. We are still

:28:35.:28:38.

expecting the Prime Minister to arrive in Peterborough. Let's have a

:28:39.:28:47.

look. They are just gathering there, the Conservatives, to celebrate the

:28:48.:28:52.

gain in Peterborough. Although John Curtice was explaining earlier on

:28:53.:28:55.

that boundary changes had a very big part to play in what has happened in

:28:56.:29:00.

Peterborough. The Prime Minister turning up there because it is

:29:01.:29:04.

something they can point to as again overnight, in terms of gaining

:29:05.:29:07.

control of the council. We will come back to Peterborough in the second.

:29:08.:29:12.

Earlier, I was mentioning that there was talk about the future for

:29:13.:29:16.

Labour, and Lord Falconer is still with us. I mentioned that the Shadow

:29:17.:29:21.

Chancellor, John McDonnell, had been giving his response not just to the

:29:22.:29:26.

results, but also to the talk among some Labour MPs that they still

:29:27.:29:30.

wanted to express dissatisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn. This is what

:29:31.:29:34.

John McDonnell had to say... I have been talking to Labour Party members

:29:35.:29:40.

all over the country. They are saying, for goodness sake, get

:29:41.:29:43.

behind the leader of the Labour Party who was democratically

:29:44.:29:47.

elected. It is time to put up or shot up. I think most of Labour

:29:48.:29:50.

Party members are saying, you are damaging our campaign with this

:29:51.:29:55.

continuous cropping. I have never been in a situation where two days

:29:56.:29:58.

before a poll, a group of them are talking to the media about a

:29:59.:30:03.

leadership coup. And yet we still do well! Everybody can make a

:30:04.:30:08.

constructive and to cushioned, and that's what we expect them to do.

:30:09.:30:14.

And this is what Boris Johnson had to say, the outgoing Mayor of

:30:15.:30:21.

London. He says, Labour have had a absolutely punishing night. He says,

:30:22.:30:26.

they are behind in Scotland. He says, they have lost the Rhondda,

:30:27.:30:34.

for heaven's sake! He says, there is a crisis going on in the Labour

:30:35.:30:38.

Party, as far as I can tell. OK, we know where Boris is coming from.

:30:39.:30:44.

He's a Tory! He is a Tory, and thanks for pointing that out!

:30:45.:30:51.

John McDonnell really wanting to make a forceful point there that he

:30:52.:30:58.

clearly feels the night's events more than justify telling people -

:30:59.:31:05.

purr off, we don't want -- push off, we don't want any more carping. Is

:31:06.:31:09.

that going to find a home in the Labour Party? My feeling about where

:31:10.:31:15.

the wider Labour membership is, is that they don't want carping about

:31:16.:31:21.

the leadership. They want the Parliamentary leadership to focus on

:31:22.:31:27.

talking to the population and they don't like this constant focus all

:31:28.:31:31.

the time on rows within the Labour Party. Let's go to Peterborough. The

:31:32.:31:38.

Prime Minister is just arriving. Hi there, how are we doing?

:31:39.:31:40.

CHEERING It is absolutely great to be here,

:31:41.:31:46.

not just in Conservative-led Peterborough, but

:31:47.:31:47.

Conservative-controlled Peterborough. Congratulations on

:31:48.:31:52.

your stunning result. It is remarkable that six years into

:31:53.:31:56.

Government, six years into running our country we have got more

:31:57.:32:01.

councillors than any other political party. Local election day for

:32:02.:32:06.

sitting Prime Minister ises meant to be a day of dread. It's meant to be

:32:07.:32:10.

a day when you're waiting for someone to knock on the door, like a

:32:11.:32:13.

condemned man waiting for the hangman. That wasn't what it was

:32:14.:32:18.

like last night or today. We have held councils across the country.

:32:19.:32:22.

We've won seats in England and of course, here in Peterborough, we've

:32:23.:32:27.

taken control of a really important City Council for the first time in

:32:28.:32:32.

ages a huge congratulations to the team, to Stuart Jackson, to everyone

:32:33.:32:35.

who's worked so hard. Thank you for what you've done. Brilliant.

:32:36.:32:43.

CHEERING I think it's worth reflecting on why, after six years

:32:44.:32:47.

in power, we're actually strengthening our position in local

:32:48.:32:52.

Government. It tells us three things: First of all, it tells us

:32:53.:32:57.

that we have amazing, hard-working councillors, hard-working council

:32:58.:33:00.

leaders, hard-working campaigners, people who do a brilliant job

:33:01.:33:05.

standing up for local people, standing up for local communities. I

:33:06.:33:08.

pay tribute to all those Conservatives who've worked so hard

:33:09.:33:11.

to deliver local services, to keep local taxes down and do a great job.

:33:12.:33:15.

I think it tells us something else, which it tells us that six years

:33:16.:33:19.

into Government, of course, we don't get everything right. Of course we

:33:20.:33:23.

can make mistakes. Of course, sometimes, things go wrong. But

:33:24.:33:27.

people look at the big picture and they want us to go on delivering

:33:28.:33:32.

what we promised in our manifesto, that security for working people at

:33:33.:33:35.

every stage of their lives. They want us to go on creating those

:33:36.:33:39.

well-paid jobs. They want us to go on cutting people's taxes. They want

:33:40.:33:43.

us to go on building homes that people can afford to own and having

:33:44.:33:46.

great schools for their children to go to. That is what we've got to

:33:47.:33:50.

focus on. That is what these elections have really been all

:33:51.:33:53.

about. I think these elections tell us something else as well. That is

:33:54.:33:58.

that the Labour Party have completely lost touch with the

:33:59.:34:02.

hard-working people they're supposed to represent. They're so obsessed

:34:03.:34:07.

with their left-wing causes and unworkable economic policies that

:34:08.:34:11.

they've forgot that people want jobs, people want livelihoods, lower

:34:12.:34:15.

taxes, people want homes they can afford to own, the things that we're

:34:16.:34:19.

now delivering. What these elections show is that where we are a united,

:34:20.:34:26.

mainstream, one nation, compassionate Conservative Party we

:34:27.:34:29.

can win, we can serve our country and communities and we can deliver

:34:30.:34:33.

the things we believe in. Nowhere is that more the case than with those

:34:34.:34:37.

remarkable results north of the border in Scotland. Let us pay huge

:34:38.:34:43.

tribute to Ruth Davidson for the extraordinary campaign that she's

:34:44.:34:47.

won with those absolutely stunning results that see the Conservative

:34:48.:34:51.

Party, for the first time in a very long time, to be the official

:34:52.:34:53.

Opposition in the Scottish Parliament. It was a great result

:34:54.:35:01.

and she deserves huge credit. APPLAUSE

:35:02.:35:05.

Frankly, It's something of a re-alignment in Scottish politics.

:35:06.:35:08.

If someone said to me six years ago, when I became Prime Minister, if

:35:09.:35:12.

someone had said, "Prime Minister, pretty soon the Conservatives will

:35:13.:35:15.

be the second biggest party in Scotland...

:35:16.:35:19.

LAUGHTER... I would have told them to go away, lie down, stop taking

:35:20.:35:23.

what they were taking, come back and tell me what they really thought.

:35:24.:35:27.

That is what has happened. That's so extraordinary for our party and a

:35:28.:35:29.

great opportunity for our country that we see in Scotland now, the

:35:30.:35:35.

Conservative Party as a one nation, mainstream, united party, with an

:35:36.:35:38.

inspirational leader that is able to say to people in Scotland - if you

:35:39.:35:42.

want an alternative to the independence and the separation

:35:43.:35:47.

offered by the Scottish National Party, the Conservative Party and

:35:48.:35:51.

Ruth Davidson, we are there for you to represent you in the Scottish

:35:52.:35:53.

Parliament and to win in Scotland, win for Scotland and go on at the

:35:54.:35:57.

next election and keep winning in Scotland and keep winning for our

:35:58.:36:00.

United Kingdom. It's a great day for our party to see us recovering like

:36:01.:36:06.

this in Scotland. I think it could be a re-alignment taking place north

:36:07.:36:09.

of the border, which is all to those, to the good of those of us

:36:10.:36:13.

who want to see a strong and successful United Kingdom.

:36:14.:36:16.

Now I was in Peterborough just a week or so ago, talking about

:36:17.:36:21.

another issue and I said if you won, I might just come back and say well

:36:22.:36:25.

done. That's what I've done. It's down to your hard work as

:36:26.:36:32.

Councillors, campaigners, a huge thank you for what you've done. We

:36:33.:36:36.

do have in 48 days' time another big decision, we all have to make. I say

:36:37.:36:42.

nothing about it today, apart from this, never forget why we're having

:36:43.:36:45.

this referendum, because it was promised by a Conservative

:36:46.:36:47.

Government and it's being delivered by a Conservative Government.

:36:48.:36:52.

Let me just finish by saying this: In 48 days, whatever the result,

:36:53.:36:56.

let's be absolutely clear that our job as Conservatives will be to come

:36:57.:37:02.

together and to work even harder to deliver the things that we promised

:37:03.:37:05.

and we committed to the British people in our manifesto, to keep

:37:06.:37:09.

creating those jobs, building those homes, providing those good schools,

:37:10.:37:13.

cutting those taxes, providing dignity and security in old age,

:37:14.:37:18.

strengthening our defences, keeping our country safe, fighting terrorism

:37:19.:37:21.

- all those things we promised - those are the things that we will

:37:22.:37:25.

come together and unite over and work even harder than ever before,

:37:26.:37:28.

because when we were put into Government, we were given a sacred

:37:29.:37:32.

trust by the British people to work as hard as we can to deliver for

:37:33.:37:36.

them this year and all the years, out to 2020 and, I hope, beyond.

:37:37.:37:40.

Above all today, the people in Peterborough, who've worked so hard

:37:41.:37:43.

and done so well representing the people of this great city, that are

:37:44.:37:47.

seeing jobs being created, seeing businesses come to Peterborough,

:37:48.:37:50.

seeing great regeneration happening, homes being built in Peterborough,

:37:51.:37:54.

you won because you worked hard and you deserved to win. Have a

:37:55.:37:59.

celebration USA Today. Have a sell -- have a celebration today and over

:38:00.:38:03.

the weekend. I have a small majority and John's got a small majority,

:38:04.:38:07.

with the dedication you've all shown you will do great things for this

:38:08.:38:10.

great city. Thank you very much indeed.

:38:11.:38:12.

REPORTER: Prime Minister, you say Labour is out of touch, how

:38:13.:38:15.

disappointed that you didn't make greater gains?

:38:16.:38:19.

STUDIO: No answer from the Prime Minister there in terms of the scale

:38:20.:38:23.

of the gains, but a very rousing speech for the Conservative

:38:24.:38:26.

supporters there in Peterborough. We'll discuss this in a moment. I'm

:38:27.:38:30.

pleased to say we're joined by Greg Clarke the Communities Secretary.

:38:31.:38:33.

Thanks for joining us No problem. Good to have you with us. We come to

:38:34.:38:37.

you in a second. A few more council results that Emily can share with

:38:38.:38:39.

us. Just to remind you David Cameron

:38:40.:38:42.

paying tribute to the workers there in Peterborough. Peterborough was an

:38:43.:38:46.

all-out collection. Under those boundary changes they favoured a

:38:47.:38:50.

Conservative win. There would have been a Conservative-led council even

:38:51.:38:54.

before the election. Just put that into context. It's still a nice

:38:55.:38:57.

result for the Conservatives, but just be cautious about seeing that,

:38:58.:39:00.

necessarily, as a big leap forward. Going to take you to some of the

:39:01.:39:04.

others that we've been looking at. This is the problem when there's

:39:05.:39:08.

little movement of seats you can plant a narrative on whatever story

:39:09.:39:12.

you want. So, in other words, Calderdale, a hung Council here.

:39:13.:39:16.

It's been hung for 16 years. Labour might have hoped on a good night to

:39:17.:39:20.

take this. They haven't. They're the largest party, though. Not slipping

:39:21.:39:23.

back, not making gains. Very little movement. Here's an interesting

:39:24.:39:28.

pattern that might give you a sense of what's happening generally

:39:29.:39:32.

overnight - if I take you back to 2012, what you see is the Labour

:39:33.:39:36.

Party share of the vote slipping down and Ukip making those gains.

:39:37.:39:43.

2012, the high water mark for Ed Miliband as Labour's leader, over

:39:44.:39:46.

that course, the last time these seats were fought not very good for

:39:47.:39:51.

Labour. Now going back just one year, to see how the party is

:39:52.:39:54.

looking under Jeremy Corbyn and how the Lib Dems are faring under Tim

:39:55.:40:00.

Farron, it's a different picture. Labour starting to make gains. The

:40:01.:40:03.

Conservatives have taken the hit here down 8% and the Lib Dems coming

:40:04.:40:06.

through, they'll be relieved, there is not a lot of movement for Lib Dem

:40:07.:40:11.

seats, odd ones here and there, up one, down one. If you look at the

:40:12.:40:14.

share of the vote, there is a suggestion that they are starting to

:40:15.:40:19.

come back from, let's be honest, rock bottom. In Milton Keynes, the

:40:20.:40:23.

same sort of thing here. One seat change was for the Lib Dems. The two

:40:24.:40:28.

parties pretty much neck and neck. Labour short by seven to take it.

:40:29.:40:32.

And the story of the Lib Dems, I think can you see here. This is

:40:33.:40:37.

south Cambridgeshire. This has happened overnight. The Lib Dems are

:40:38.:40:41.

taking seats here. A little bit from the Conservatives, a bit from the

:40:42.:40:46.

two independents, coming back in a part of the world where they could

:40:47.:40:51.

even start to see a council being gained, maybe Watford, if it's going

:40:52.:40:54.

well for them tonight. Well in Hatfield. This is their good night

:40:55.:41:00.

here. Conservative held, 28. Never any question really that would stay

:41:01.:41:05.

Conservative. Look, the Conservative seats are dipping, down four. Lib

:41:06.:41:08.

Dems making those gains. Even Labour up here. What can I say, it is a

:41:09.:41:14.

mixed bag of results, Lib Dems starting to see themselves coming

:41:15.:41:18.

back and the Labour narrative written, depending on whether you go

:41:19.:41:22.

back to 2012, the last time the seats were fought, or 2015 to look

:41:23.:41:27.

for signs under the new leadership. We'll speak to the Lib Dems in a

:41:28.:41:33.

second. First, your broad reading of what's happening to your party

:41:34.:41:36.

overnight in the local elections? It's been a very good result. You

:41:37.:41:40.

talked a lot about Scotland, that is a phenomenal win for Ruth Davidson

:41:41.:41:45.

there. If you look across the country, the expectation of any

:41:46.:41:50.

sitting Government is that you lose seats mid-term to the Opposition.

:41:51.:41:55.

But the fact that we are holding our own in places right across the

:41:56.:41:59.

country, we won Peterborough, as you saw with the Prime Minister there.

:42:00.:42:06.

We held onto Trafford, this key northern marginal, big target for

:42:07.:42:09.

Labour there. We held onto it comfortably. Talking about years

:42:10.:42:14.

that you might go back to, actually 1985 is an important year, because

:42:15.:42:19.

that is the last time, the last year in which an Opposition did not

:42:20.:42:24.

increase its number of seats at a council election. Over 30 years.

:42:25.:42:35.

Just going to bring in the Lib Dem MP, Tom Break. Just a thought on the

:42:36.:42:40.

Lib Dem performance. Let's leave Scotland and Wales for a second.

:42:41.:42:44.

Focus on the English local elections, what is your reading of

:42:45.:42:48.

that? There are good signs there for us. In the last seven years, we've

:42:49.:42:52.

been losing seats. It looks as though we are going to be winning

:42:53.:42:55.

seats. What we've seen in the areas where we are very organised and very

:42:56.:42:59.

active, like Portsmouth or Cambridge, that we are gaining. I

:43:00.:43:04.

think although we're not going to be cracking open any bottles, I think

:43:05.:43:07.

this is a good sign for the party and a good sign for Tim Farron. If

:43:08.:43:17.

somebody is writing this up as a process of rebuilding, what would

:43:18.:43:20.

you say? There's a process of rebuilding. What we've tried to do

:43:21.:43:26.

in the last 12 months is rebuild our identity, which I think got lost in

:43:27.:43:30.

the coalition. Tim has done a good job on starting that process. At the

:43:31.:43:34.

moment, we're looking at around 14 gains for you. What were your honest

:43:35.:43:39.

expectations going into last night? Well, my honest expectations were

:43:40.:43:45.

that any gains would be good news. We've exceeded that slightly. But

:43:46.:43:48.

there's clearly still a lot more to do, the fact that we've increased

:43:49.:43:53.

our level of support on last year by 6% is significant. Although, of

:43:54.:43:56.

course, the results last year were challenging for us. I think the

:43:57.:44:02.

party, as a whole, will feel that we fought a good battle yesterday and

:44:03.:44:06.

it has paid off and I think we're positive about our future now. A

:44:07.:44:10.

less encouraging picture for you in the Welsh Assembly? Yes, clearly in

:44:11.:44:16.

the Welsh Assembly, with the rise of Ukip, that did do us damage. In

:44:17.:44:21.

terms of council seats, we far outstrip Ukip in terms of the

:44:22.:44:25.

performance. The results in Scotland were good for us. Pleasing that

:44:26.:44:32.

Willie Rennie took north-east Fife back. Good of you to join us, thanks

:44:33.:44:39.

very much. Just picking up on the conversation from earlier, thoughts

:44:40.:44:41.

about the Conservative performance overnight? I wanted to ask Greg

:44:42.:44:47.

about the fact that really there's little evidence of enthusiasm for

:44:48.:44:50.

the Conservatives, if you look at the predictions, they were that the

:44:51.:44:54.

Labour Party were going to lose anything between 100 and 200 eats.

:44:55.:45:00.

You didn't pick any of -- seats. You didn't pick any of those up. In

:45:01.:45:04.

terms of the predictions you need to look at what what has to Opposition

:45:05.:45:08.

parties, especially when they change the leader. They expect to make -

:45:09.:45:11.

Let's look at the governing party. You didn't do as well as was

:45:12.:45:15.

predicted, which is why it's been a fairly boring result.

:45:16.:45:20.

I don't accept that. You have seen the Prime Minister in Peterborough,

:45:21.:45:27.

if you look at places up and down the country, Nuneaton, we may not

:45:28.:45:35.

have taken it, but we have an 11% swing, I mentioned Trafford. On

:45:36.:45:40.

Portsmouth, what Tom Brake had to say about the Liberal Democrats, Tim

:45:41.:45:44.

Farron going in said winning Portsmouth was the test of a Liberal

:45:45.:45:49.

Democrat resurgence, they did not do that. The Labour leader in

:45:50.:45:58.

Portsmouth said the national leadership is a disaster. For 30

:45:59.:46:05.

years, 31 years, every opposition has taken seats from the governing

:46:06.:46:09.

party. This was from a high watermark for Labour in 2012, they

:46:10.:46:14.

had a very good performance and Ed Miliband in 2012. If the limit of

:46:15.:46:23.

the ambition of the Labour Party is what Ed Miliband achieved four years

:46:24.:46:28.

ago and went on to a defeat at the general election, that is

:46:29.:46:33.

interesting. That is a fair point. I understand Greg to say that we lost

:46:34.:46:37.

ground, we were not as unpopular as governments previously have been.

:46:38.:46:43.

That is his defence. As Emily showed... It is unprecedented for

:46:44.:46:50.

Government... You are less unpopular than other governments? My

:46:51.:46:57.

observation is that up and down the country the people have chosen

:46:58.:46:58.

Conservative councillors to continue, to back them. When they

:46:59.:47:08.

looked at the alternative, the Labour Party, they decided, for the

:47:09.:47:11.

working people of this country, this was not a party that was going to

:47:12.:47:21.

help them. They have... What happened in Crawley, Southampton,

:47:22.:47:23.

Norwich and Hastings? These councils Labour has retained. There is

:47:24.:47:28.

evidence beginning to suggest your vote was down in southern England.

:47:29.:47:36.

Your heartland. Would you accept that it has come to a thing when the

:47:37.:47:40.

EU referendum, which has been cited, has been divided your party and

:47:41.:47:46.

putting off voters? The fact we can even have a conversation about

:47:47.:47:52.

Conservative councils and gains that might or might not be made, this is

:47:53.:47:59.

unprecedented that a Government in power should be defending so well

:48:00.:48:03.

the places that we have that we can be talking about making gains. In

:48:04.:48:11.

terms of the referendum, a year ago we were sitting here and the results

:48:12.:48:16.

were coming through and the referendum on Europe was promised.

:48:17.:48:19.

In the election campaign, people were sceptical, but I am proud,

:48:20.:48:26.

whatever you think on the question of Europe, we have delivered the

:48:27.:48:29.

manifesto promise. Even though it has divided your party? There is a

:48:30.:48:34.

debate in all parties, there should be a vigorous debate about something

:48:35.:48:40.

so important, but there is unity of pride in the fact it took a majority

:48:41.:48:43.

Conservative Government to deliver the manifesto. Without it, we would

:48:44.:48:48.

not have it. We will come back to the referendum. That will fill a lot

:48:49.:48:55.

of time! We have discussed Labour's performance in local elections and a

:48:56.:48:58.

bit about their performance in Wales. Let's look at their

:48:59.:49:02.

performance in Scotland. We were talking about, should we go

:49:03.:49:08.

back to 2015 or 2012? What about 1929? Join us in our virtual Central

:49:09.:49:14.

Lobby and let's look at the history of the Labour Party in Scotland.

:49:15.:49:18.

Their close links with the Scottish nation. 20 years after the birth of

:49:19.:49:25.

Labour, this is the vote in a general election in Scotland.

:49:26.:49:30.

For the Labour Party. You can see how quickly they connected with

:49:31.:49:36.

Scotland. Clement Attlee just after the war, will he get to half the

:49:37.:49:42.

votes in Scotland? By the time of Wilson, they do. This is a really

:49:43.:49:49.

impressive, powerful progression for the Labour Party, connecting with

:49:50.:49:54.

the people of Scotland. It then takes a turn for the worse, the 70s,

:49:55.:50:00.

80s, modern politics does not quite help them with their connection.

:50:01.:50:07.

Michael foot is the Labour leader, he was a struggling opposition

:50:08.:50:11.

leader. Still pretty good figures compare to today. It is not over by

:50:12.:50:19.

any means between the party and the nation. When Tony Blair comes in in

:50:20.:50:24.

1997, they are not quite with half the vote, but very impressive. In

:50:25.:50:32.

the years that followed, they posted these very high votes, lots of MPs

:50:33.:50:35.

coming to Westminster with the red rosette. Then Gordon Brown comes in.

:50:36.:50:43.

He was outperforming his party in Scotland, maybe partly because of

:50:44.:50:48.

his constituency, Kirkcaldy. He may have been disguising some of the

:50:49.:50:54.

disaffection we are now seeing. Still, 42% in 2010 in the general

:50:55.:51:00.

election. By 2015, they have been not quite half, but slashed. What

:51:01.:51:07.

has happened in between? The Scottish referendum on independence.

:51:08.:51:13.

Although the SNP lost it, somehow the bounce that came out of it for

:51:14.:51:18.

those parties, or the SNP, who wanted independence was impressive,

:51:19.:51:22.

and it took the wind out of the Labour Party. Here we are, 2016, and

:51:23.:51:30.

they have 23%. The others are general elections, this figure for

:51:31.:51:32.

Jeremy Corbyn is the constituency vote in the Scottish parliament

:51:33.:51:38.

elections. Put it in context, there we are, 80 years of history.

:51:39.:51:43.

I will go straight to Holyrood and talk to the SNP MSP for Renfrewshire

:51:44.:51:56.

North. Just a thought about the SNP performance, clearly Nicola Sturgeon

:51:57.:52:00.

has her own personal mandate. If the fact that there is no majority going

:52:01.:52:04.

to cause you a problem? There is no doubt this is a big victory for the

:52:05.:52:11.

SNP, 63 seats. In 2007 when we first came into Government as a minority,

:52:12.:52:16.

we had 47 seats, so we have shown the SNP continues to grow. It is a

:52:17.:52:23.

strong block. We have won this election in Scotland, it is an

:52:24.:52:26.

historic victory, the third time in a row we have won the Scottish

:52:27.:52:31.

Parliament elections. With more votes than the constituency vote

:52:32.:52:34.

than ever before. In Parliament, it is quite a commanding group that we

:52:35.:52:39.

will have. We will reach out to the other parties, as we have always

:52:40.:52:44.

done, to try to get good governance. Learned in a consensual style. I am

:52:45.:52:50.

sure Nicola Sturgeon has secured the personal mandate that she looked

:52:51.:52:54.

for, and the SNP has had this spectacular result. I am not denying

:52:55.:53:00.

the skill of the victory, but in the week leading up to it people were

:53:01.:53:03.

talking about the SNP taking every constituency seat, and very

:53:04.:53:08.

confidently about you getting a majority. What would account for the

:53:09.:53:14.

fact you did not get to that point? Most political parties around the

:53:15.:53:17.

world would be celebrating such a six is, as we have seen in Scotland.

:53:18.:53:24.

Expectations were high. This is our third successive victory in the

:53:25.:53:27.

Scottish Parliament elections. When we first entered office we had 47

:53:28.:53:33.

seats, and we ran a minority Government, now we are elected with

:53:34.:53:39.

63. Our best ever result in the constituencies, more constituencies

:53:40.:53:42.

than before, more votes, and more votes than late and the

:53:43.:53:45.

Conservatives combined. When it comes to working in the Scottish

:53:46.:53:50.

Parliament, we have had a vote of governors for the people of Scotland

:53:51.:53:56.

-- a vote of confidence from the people of Scotland, we will get to

:53:57.:54:01.

do to grow, record membership, and a vote of confidence in the First

:54:02.:54:04.

Minister, the only credible candidate, who secured the personal

:54:05.:54:08.

mandate. That will be recognised by the other political parties in

:54:09.:54:13.

Scotland. A spectacular result, and a catastrophe for the Labour Party.

:54:14.:54:19.

I was just about to ask. What does it mean for you that your main

:54:20.:54:22.

opposition now in Scotland will be the Conservatives? Given that with

:54:23.:54:28.

Davidson fought a clear campaign in terms of the union and the

:54:29.:54:32.

opposition to any notion of a second referendum, how will that pan out?

:54:33.:54:38.

As it happens, there are more pro-independent parliamentarians in

:54:39.:54:42.

the Scottish Parliament than those against independence. There would

:54:43.:54:49.

only be a referendum if the people of Scotland want one. What we have

:54:50.:54:52.

secured is a mandate to transform our public services and deliver good

:54:53.:54:58.

governance and the manifesto we set out. We have set out the

:54:59.:55:03.

circumstances in which we think there could be a further referendum,

:55:04.:55:07.

but it will only happen if the people of Scotland want one. In

:55:08.:55:12.

terms of the opposition, Labour has had a terrible result. In terms of

:55:13.:55:19.

the Tories, they did not win, but they have come second, so that will

:55:20.:55:23.

transform the nature of debates in the Scottish parliament. We will

:55:24.:55:28.

continue to put forward a positive vision and a manifesto delivery, a

:55:29.:55:33.

programme for Government, and Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister. We said

:55:34.:55:38.

-- we expect the Conservatives to be a constructive opposition, not a

:55:39.:55:42.

shouting one that we have seen in the past. He was drawing attention

:55:43.:55:52.

to the fact that Labour have had their problems in Scotland

:55:53.:55:55.

overnight. A different story for the Labour Party in Wales. Let's go to

:55:56.:56:04.

Cardiff Bay. I just wonder what you make of the results overnight in

:56:05.:56:08.

Wales, give us your reading. They were excellent for us. For us to be

:56:09.:56:16.

in power, possibly governing on our own, with 29 seats, most

:56:17.:56:20.

commentators were anticipating is losing significant numbers of seats

:56:21.:56:25.

in Wales, especially after the Conservatives did well at the last

:56:26.:56:28.

general election. The Tories failed to make any of those key seats they

:56:29.:56:34.

were targeting. We failed by the narrowest of squeaks from having 30

:56:35.:56:38.

seats this morning, as we had yesterday. Awful for us to lose

:56:39.:56:43.

Leighton Andrews in the Rhondda are a great Labour seat that is now a

:56:44.:56:46.

Plaid Cymru seat, but we can be pleased. Your constituency vote is

:56:47.:56:52.

down 8%, your regional vote is down 5%. Some people will look at the

:56:53.:56:59.

seat result and think, how can the system deliver the same number of

:57:00.:57:02.

seats for a party when their vote is down quite considerably in the

:57:03.:57:07.

constituencies? That is the first past the post system. It throws up

:57:08.:57:13.

those questions at every election. We also have PR, so that compensates

:57:14.:57:18.

some of those other parties, by boosting their numbers. We only get

:57:19.:57:24.

a couple of seats on the list, others will get a significant

:57:25.:57:27.

number. That is why we have seen Ukip, unfortunately. The truth is,

:57:28.:57:33.

nobody can see anything other than this was a good night for Carwyn

:57:34.:57:37.

Jones and Jeremy Corbyn and for Welsh Labour. We fought a positive

:57:38.:57:41.

campaign on the record of the Labour Party in Wales, we have been in

:57:42.:57:45.

power for a long time in Wales, and the Welsh people have endorsed the

:57:46.:57:49.

programme that we have put in place over the last few years and that we

:57:50.:57:52.

put forward in the election. We can be pleased, with London looking

:57:53.:58:01.

good, council victories in Cambridge and Norwich and Sunderland, real

:58:02.:58:04.

gains that we have made in some of those seats, hanging onto Exeter and

:58:05.:58:08.

some of those councils in the south-east that people thought we

:58:09.:58:13.

would lose. It was not a good night for the Conservatives. There is lots

:58:14.:58:17.

for us to build on. We have to be united and build on this across

:58:18.:58:20.

Britain. You mentioned the loss of the Rhondda. Our Plaid Cymru the

:58:21.:58:28.

natural working party for collaboration with Labour going

:58:29.:58:31.

ahead, or do you think Carwyn Jones will simply try to govern by

:58:32.:58:37.

himself? That is a question for him and his ministers in the assembly. I

:58:38.:58:41.

will not tell them what they should do, but I think they have enough to

:58:42.:58:46.

govern on day own if they wish. They do not need to forge an alliance.

:58:47.:58:51.

The key question is, Labour put forward a strong manifesto we talked

:58:52.:58:55.

about, the things that people in Wales care about, Carwyn Jones

:58:56.:59:00.

played a national role in fighting for the steel jobs, and the Welsh

:59:01.:59:04.

people saw Labour standing up for working class people, working

:59:05.:59:09.

communities, our values and speaking their values. That is why we have

:59:10.:59:13.

been so successful. There are lessons right across the country. Do

:59:14.:59:18.

you think Labour was held in Wales by Carwyn Jones' request for Jeremy

:59:19.:59:23.

Corbyn not to campaign in the final week's that is not true -- the final

:59:24.:59:30.

week? It is not true, Jeremy decided not to come to Wales. He came to

:59:31.:59:35.

Wales on the last day, he was in Maesteg on Wednesday. He has been

:59:36.:59:40.

Wales a knot over the last few months, just as he has travelled

:59:41.:59:44.

across the whole of the UK. He has seen that in Wales, if you have a

:59:45.:59:49.

united party fighting shoulder to shoulder across the political

:59:50.:59:52.

spectrum within parties, you can continue to make great inroads and

:59:53.:59:58.

win Labour victories. We can learn more from Wales in the future and

:59:59.:00:02.

Labour needs to use this as a springboard to try and move towards

:00:03.:00:05.

a victory in 2020. That is Labour's Owen Smith, the MP

:00:06.:00:18.

for pont preening and the -- Pontyprith. We will get a round up

:00:19.:00:23.

of everything that's been happening so far with Jane.

:00:24.:00:29.

Yes, good afternoon. These are today's main stories: The Scottish

:00:30.:00:32.

National Party is celebrating after winning a third victory in the

:00:33.:00:36.

Holyrood election. The party failed to get an overall majority, but

:00:37.:00:40.

Scotland's First Minister has called the result a huge vote of

:00:41.:00:45.

confidence. The Conservatives exceeded expectations in Scotland,

:00:46.:00:49.

pushing Labour, a former powerhouse there, into third place. In the

:00:50.:00:53.

local elections in England, Labour has retained control of councils

:00:54.:00:56.

that some had regarded as vulnerable, but it lost seats as

:00:57.:01:00.

well. One Labour MP called the result "not good enough" and said

:01:01.:01:04.

the clock was now ticking on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. Our political

:01:05.:01:08.

correspondent, Carole Walker, has the latest.

:01:09.:01:14.

A third term in power for Nicola Sturgeon, though the SNP fell just

:01:15.:01:19.

short of an overall majority, the result confirm's her party's grip on

:01:20.:01:22.

politics in Scotland. We're seeing a huge vote of confidence in the SNP's

:01:23.:01:27.

record in Government and an enormous vote of trust in our ability to lead

:01:28.:01:31.

the country forward. The Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson,

:01:32.:01:36.

had reason to be cheerful too, winning Edinburgh central and

:01:37.:01:38.

overtaking Labour to become the second largest party at Holyrood.

:01:39.:01:43.

The beleaguered Liberal Democrats retained their five seats in

:01:44.:01:47.

Scotland, but the result was a serious blow for Labour, with the

:01:48.:01:52.

former party leader Joanne Lamont one of the casualties. The current

:01:53.:01:56.

leader said she was heartbroken that her party had been pushed into third

:01:57.:02:01.

place, but she said she would remain as leader no matter what. Good

:02:02.:02:05.

morning everybody. Jeremy Corbyn went to Sheffield to congratulate

:02:06.:02:11.

one of two New Labour MPs jil Furnace, would won the by-election

:02:12.:02:15.

caused by the death of her late husband. These elections are being

:02:16.:02:19.

seen as a test of his leadership. We were getting rediction that's Labour

:02:20.:02:21.

was going to lose councils. We didn't. We hung on and we grew

:02:22.:02:27.

support in a lot of places. APPLAUSE

:02:28.:02:29.

There's a lot more results to come today. Labour hung onto some of the

:02:30.:02:34.

councils considered vulnerable in the northern Heartlands and retained

:02:35.:02:38.

control of Southampton and Hastings along the south coast. Critics say

:02:39.:02:41.

the party should have done much better. I think it was a really

:02:42.:02:45.

disappointing night for all those Labour activists who've been out

:02:46.:02:48.

campaigning for months. Jeremy needs to take responsibility for what was

:02:49.:02:54.

a poor performance yesterday. The Conservatives made some modest

:02:55.:02:57.

gains. The party will be relieved to have held its ground at a time when

:02:58.:03:00.

ministers are openly disagreeing over Europe. I think for us, as a

:03:01.:03:07.

party, normally Governments mid-term expect to lose ground. We have held

:03:08.:03:13.

our own. We have taken Peterborough council, for example. Labour have

:03:14.:03:18.

lost control of Dudley. So, I think it's much Bert than might be

:03:19.:03:22.

expected -- much better than might be expected. Ukip has won seats in

:03:23.:03:28.

Wales for the first time. A big breakthrough night for us, Wales in

:03:29.:03:31.

particular. But right across the country, our vote share up. In

:03:32.:03:35.

England, coming second almost everywhere, beginning to break

:03:36.:03:38.

through and get more firsts as well. There are many results still to

:03:39.:03:41.

come, including the contest for London Mayor. But already these

:03:42.:03:47.

elections are providing an important insight into public opinion, a year

:03:48.:03:52.

after the general election. In the rest of the day's news, the

:03:53.:03:58.

management buyout team Excaliber says it hopes to secure funding to

:03:59.:04:04.

rescue Tata steel's UK operations within a meet, to meet -- it's to

:04:05.:04:08.

meet bankers next Friday on talk to finance a deal. They say any buyout

:04:09.:04:13.

proposal is likely to involve the loss of a thousand job.

:04:14.:04:17.

Syrian rebel fighters have captured a strategic village south after

:04:18.:04:20.

lepo, despite a supposed ceasefire in the city itself. The Syrian Army

:04:21.:04:25.

denies the claim. The rebel fighters are part of an alliance, which along

:04:26.:04:32.

with the Al-Qaeda-linked nusra front hasn't agreed to abide to any of the

:04:33.:04:36.

recent truce announcement. It's reporting fighting was intense and

:04:37.:04:40.

In Canada, thousands of people who fled their homes because of

:04:41.:04:46.

wildfires are having to be moved again. Many people in Alberta had

:04:47.:04:51.

travelled north as part of a mandatory evacuation order. There

:04:52.:04:54.

are fears they could become trapped by the growing inferno and will now

:04:55.:04:57.

be airlifted south. The evacuations were ordered as the wildfire

:04:58.:05:02.

threatened to consume the city of fort McMurray and two other nearby

:05:03.:05:06.

towns. Those are the main stories so far this lunch time. Now it's back

:05:07.:05:13.

to Election 2016. Thanks very much. So, what is going

:05:14.:05:18.

on in the race to be the Mayor of London to succeed Boris Johnson and

:05:19.:05:22.

in the race to elect members to the Greater London Assembly? I'm Joeing

:05:23.:05:27.

to join my colleague, Tim Donovan. What are you picking up there at

:05:28.:05:33.

City Hall? It looks very likely that Labour's Sadiq Khan is heading for

:05:34.:05:38.

victory here. About half the votes have been scanned, have been read

:05:39.:05:43.

and he looks, from the screens we've got here, as if he's comfortably

:05:44.:05:47.

ahead. There are a couple of other quite good indicators, which are

:05:48.:05:53.

that in Zach Goldsmith's, his Conservative opponent's backyard, if

:05:54.:05:56.

you like, south-west London, where he lives, Labour appear to be, Sadiq

:05:57.:06:01.

Khan, appears to be ahead. There the significance of that is not only

:06:02.:06:05.

that Zach Goldsmith has a considerable majority and extended

:06:06.:06:08.

it at the last general election, but it looks as if Liberal Democrats may

:06:09.:06:13.

have done something strategic in and interesting, which has come across

:06:14.:06:18.

to Labour, perhaps because of the big row over the tone of the

:06:19.:06:21.

campaign, which there has been. Even on the London Assembly, it looks as

:06:22.:06:25.

if the Conservative there, who has been an Assembly Member here since

:06:26.:06:29.

this body was created in 2000, it looks like he is behind Labour too.

:06:30.:06:38.

Already, you can see here the recriminations among Conservatives,

:06:39.:06:41.

some Conservatives about how this campaign has been run, particularly

:06:42.:06:46.

in the latter stages. When do you think, I mean at this rate, because

:06:47.:06:50.

in the past this process has taken a very long time, what is your sense

:06:51.:06:54.

of the timings today, before we'll be able to say something confident

:06:55.:06:59.

about the outcome? We had one of the senior officials who is running the

:07:00.:07:03.

campaign here, moments ago, refusing to be drawn, as you can well

:07:04.:07:08.

imagine. There have been four mayoral elections and none has

:07:09.:07:10.

finished on time. There have been various delays. The whole process

:07:11.:07:15.

appears to have been jinx over past elections. It is looking good. No

:07:16.:07:21.

problems reported from the three venues where the votes are being

:07:22.:07:25.

counted at the moment. There are hints that the turnout could be a

:07:26.:07:29.

little bit higher than four years ago. People had said that it might

:07:30.:07:35.

be disastrously low. The indications are it could be around 40%. But not

:07:36.:07:39.

much higher than four years ago. A lot of people are hoping, the way

:07:40.:07:44.

things are looking at the moment, that we might have a result by early

:07:45.:07:51.

evening, 7pm, but mere speculation. OK, Tim. If there's an update we'll

:07:52.:07:55.

be back to you straight away. A quote from David Lammy, this has

:07:56.:08:00.

to do with an event that's happened today.

:08:01.:08:13.

I should point out that Lynton Crosby hasn't personally been

:08:14.:08:20.

running Zach Goldsmith's campaign, but his firm has.

:08:21.:08:25.

He has receive aid knighthood today and that timing is curious. It is.

:08:26.:08:29.

Because there have been a lot of complaints from the Labour side, as

:08:30.:08:33.

you would understand about the campaign. I wanted to ask Greg

:08:34.:08:39.

Clarke, are you proud of the campaign that Zach Goldsmith and the

:08:40.:08:44.

Conservatives ran with London Mayor with accusations of dog whistle

:08:45.:08:49.

politics. Zach Goldsmith has fought a positive campaign building on the

:08:50.:08:53.

successful term of Boris Johnson. You have interviewed over the course

:08:54.:08:56.

of many weeks both candidates, talking about housing in London,

:08:57.:09:00.

talking about transport, you've been talking about green issues across

:09:01.:09:05.

the piece. In recent weeks, I mean, you have seen, we've all seen, that

:09:06.:09:15.

there has been a big row about the association of extremists trying to

:09:16.:09:19.

get in and associate themselves with the Labour Party and the slowness of

:09:20.:09:25.

the Labour leadership and the officials to deal with that. That is

:09:26.:09:33.

a matter of common regret, I think. Even senior Labour people regard

:09:34.:09:36.

their response has having been too slow. It is right to call that out

:09:37.:09:43.

and to be firm on it. One of the Tory Assmebly Members said it was an

:09:44.:09:47.

outrageous campaign for trying to smear Sadiq Khan and link him, in

:09:48.:09:52.

terms of sharing platforms, as Tories have said, with terrorists. I

:09:53.:09:56.

don't accept that at all. If you look through the whole campaign, all

:09:57.:10:01.

of the issues have been robustly debated. Anyone that looks at the

:10:02.:10:13.

mayoral I of Boris Johnson and the candidacy of Jack Goldsmith, they

:10:14.:10:19.

have -- Zach Goldsmith, it's important to be robust when there

:10:20.:10:22.

has been these accusations and evidence that people have been

:10:23.:10:27.

trying to come into the Labour Party... Well robust is one thing,

:10:28.:10:31.

you know, I suppose when you're in the business of trying to single out

:10:32.:10:37.

ethnic backgrounds and communities, possibly that's not just being

:10:38.:10:40.

robust. What does Charlie Falconer think? I'm disgusted by Greg, woulds

:10:41.:10:48.

got quite a reputation -- who's got quite a reputation for being a

:10:49.:10:52.

decent guy for defending this. I don't know what he would say about

:10:53.:10:56.

an article which Zach Goldsmith, which he wrote, illustrated by the

:10:57.:11:00.

picture of the bus that went off in Tavistock Square, which was an

:11:01.:11:05.

attack on Sadiq Khan You know perfectly well, and you're a

:11:06.:11:09.

civilised man as well to return the compliment, you know the headline

:11:10.:11:13.

was not chosen by HM. You've written enough - So Zach Goldsmith is trying

:11:14.:11:22.

to distance himself from that? What o say about the deliberate decision

:11:23.:11:33.

taken to smear Sadiq Khan. It was a revolting campaign and the

:11:34.:11:35.

Conservatives should be ashamed of it. You should condemn it. You

:11:36.:11:40.

should not be slipperily defending it as you are at the moment. I'm not

:11:41.:11:44.

doing any such thing. But it's important in London, when you have

:11:45.:11:48.

accusation that's are backed up by what we've all seen over recent

:11:49.:11:53.

weeks. We've been looking at various - You're doing it again. Various

:11:54.:11:56.

figures have been saying outrageous things. We know there is a problem -

:11:57.:12:00.

You're repeating the slur, Greg. #1y50 People associating themselves,

:12:01.:12:07.

trying to ally themselves to the Labour Party. It needs to be dealt

:12:08.:12:12.

with, it needs to be gripped. You yourself, Charlie and, colleagues,

:12:13.:12:15.

know this needs to be dealt with firmly. It's reasonable to raise

:12:16.:12:20.

that. I will ask Charlie Falconer to defend the accusations in a moment.

:12:21.:12:23.

Even senior Tories in your own ranks, I refer again to the Assembly

:12:24.:12:34.

Member who says it's set by the Conservatives for years. I disagree

:12:35.:12:40.

with that. If you don't win, do you have to accept that it will be

:12:41.:12:43.

because of the nature of the campaign. We wait for the results.

:12:44.:12:48.

But if you look through what has been a very long campaign, no-one

:12:49.:12:54.

could say that the breadth of issues, from housing to transport -

:12:55.:12:58.

We're talking about the row - It's been very well debated. When there

:12:59.:13:05.

are concerns that have been raised about extremists trying to use the

:13:06.:13:11.

parties in politics for their own ends, it's right to be robust about

:13:12.:13:16.

it. There are some questions, legitimate questions, that have been

:13:17.:13:18.

asked during this campaign. What's wrong with putting those questions

:13:19.:13:22.

to Sadiq Khan and his team, people that he did share platforms with in

:13:23.:13:25.

the past, if there is nothing for him to be ashamed or worried about,

:13:26.:13:30.

why not just declare it? He did declare it repeatedly. What is so

:13:31.:13:35.

revolting about the campaigning that Greg's party ran was it sought to

:13:36.:13:40.

suggest subliminally that Sadiq was in some way a supporting of

:13:41.:13:44.

terrorism. That's not true. It's simply not true. He denies it, but

:13:45.:13:50.

that's what they were trying do. -- to do. Greg is beyond unreliable

:13:51.:13:56.

when he is saying that Zach Goldsmith's campaign was primarily

:13:57.:14:02.

focussed on the issues. It became a campaign focussed entirely on the

:14:03.:14:06.

sort of base campaign to which I refer. That is completely untrue.

:14:07.:14:14.

Campaigning with Zach Goldsmith on these issues. Housing is part of my

:14:15.:14:19.

responsibility. During the housing Bill, Zach Goldsmith secured an

:14:20.:14:21.

amendment from the backbenchers to increase the supply of affordable

:14:22.:14:24.

housing. This is not what we're talking about. We've taken your

:14:25.:14:28.

point about the wide range of issues discussed. This was the soul of a

:14:29.:14:37.

dominant campaign weeks. Not in the closing weeks. Throughout the whole

:14:38.:14:41.

of the campaign the issues facing London were well debated. About Jo's

:14:42.:14:52.

point, it was the dominant point made by Zach's campaign. In the last

:14:53.:15:01.

few days, there was a national controversy about people associated

:15:02.:15:08.

with the Labour Party, including some Labour - You're talking about

:15:09.:15:16.

the row on anti-Semitism? The row on anti-Semitism, oftening, was very --

:15:17.:15:20.

of course, was very prominent. You took advantage of that and tried to

:15:21.:15:24.

smear him. It was right toe give a robust response to that. I think

:15:25.:15:29.

everyone in London knows who's had the manifestos, the campaign visits,

:15:30.:15:32.

the interviews, the hustings will know that the full range of issues

:15:33.:15:38.

was pursued, including a positive agenda by Zach Goldsmith. How queasy

:15:39.:15:45.

do you feel about the campaign? The legacy. A bit queasy? The legacy of

:15:46.:15:49.

Boris Johnson has been positive for London. On both sides, in terms of

:15:50.:15:56.

dog whistle politics, which is the accusation that's been made about

:15:57.:16:01.

both parties by Baroness Warsi, she says the left needs to root out

:16:02.:16:05.

anti-Semitism and the right needs to weed out people who are Islamphobes.

:16:06.:16:10.

Dog whistle politics is damaging the UK. Do you both accept that you have

:16:11.:16:14.

a responsibility to deal with this type of campaigning?

:16:15.:16:20.

All politicians have a duty to bring people together, and part of that is

:16:21.:16:27.

to be firm about those people who divide us and would undermine our

:16:28.:16:35.

society. I agree, --. We will return to it, we will look at the London

:16:36.:16:41.

results in more detail. More results in the local elections.

:16:42.:16:46.

The breaking news in Manchester, there is now an official opposition.

:16:47.:16:55.

Labour on 75 seats, they have held that, mathematically impossible to

:16:56.:16:59.

lose, but one seat for the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats

:17:00.:17:06.

have come back in Manchester, they are now the official opposition, one

:17:07.:17:12.

seat. They'd used to have 33 councillors here. In 2010 they had

:17:13.:17:19.

33, they were all wiped out. It is a very British Liberal Democrat

:17:20.:17:24.

recovery in England, very gradual, nothing dramatic, but Tim Farron has

:17:25.:17:29.

commended and congratulated John Leech, the one councillor in

:17:30.:17:32.

Manchester. A better story in Burnley for the Lib Dems. It is a

:17:33.:17:38.

Labour hold, never any chance they would not hold on, but if you look

:17:39.:17:43.

at what has happened overnight, the Lib Dems have taken three seats.

:17:44.:17:47.

They will be pleased to see the start of the recovery. You can see

:17:48.:17:57.

gains the Labour of 7% and for the Lib Dems of 4%, falls for the

:17:58.:18:03.

Conservatives and Ukip, in the last 12 months. This is what is happening

:18:04.:18:11.

to the Green Party. They are having the opposite sort of night. Let's go

:18:12.:18:21.

to Oxford. Very quickly. A different pattern. They are not having a great

:18:22.:18:29.

time. They have lost four seats. Sorry, that is Norwich. We have a

:18:30.:18:35.

few gremlins in the system, but the Green Party falling in Oxford and

:18:36.:18:39.

Norwich and the Lib Dems starting to come back in some of those north of

:18:40.:18:43.

England seat. It is a good moment for us to look

:18:44.:18:47.

at some of the key board analysis. Jeremy has got some more. We often

:18:48.:18:53.

start talking about change and looking for places where a party has

:18:54.:18:58.

lost or gained or taken control or whatever. In the English council

:18:59.:19:03.

election, the striking thing is how much has not changed.

:19:04.:19:07.

This is the map with 100 councils, much of it is the same, as it was.

:19:08.:19:15.

It is hard to identify places where councils have changed hands. The

:19:16.:19:20.

Prime Minister was here, visiting Peterborough, because this was a

:19:21.:19:23.

Conservative gain from no overall control. I am flashing places where

:19:24.:19:28.

ownership has changed, but there are not many of them. Nuneaton result

:19:29.:19:36.

here. We all sat up and watched because we remembered the general

:19:37.:19:41.

election, the Conservatives held Nuneaton, everybody thought it would

:19:42.:19:45.

go Labour. So then we thought, Ed Miliband is in trouble. The opposite

:19:46.:19:50.

situation with Nuneaton, Labour have held it, which is a good sign for

:19:51.:19:56.

Jeremy Corbyn. What is going on? We started looking at the south, the

:19:57.:20:01.

last time these seats were up in 2012, Ed Miliband was in a honeymoon

:20:02.:20:05.

period, he did well, Labour were controlling Exeter, way outside

:20:06.:20:10.

their natural territory, in Southampton, just next to Eastleigh,

:20:11.:20:17.

Hastings, you can point out the red. Councils where Labour are in

:20:18.:20:24.

control. Crawley, Slough, Stevenage, Harlow. This is the result, they

:20:25.:20:31.

still there. They have not been knocked out of those southern

:20:32.:20:34.

councils. People thought they would be punished in them, because of

:20:35.:20:37.

additional disaffection with Jeremy Corbyn. Whatever the pundits said,

:20:38.:20:43.

it was wrong on those councils, they still in control. The fact that so

:20:44.:20:48.

little has changed, it is interesting. We take about 900

:20:49.:20:56.

council wards and we analyse them, because they are representative of a

:20:57.:20:57.

national result. Bear in mind the camp parrot in --

:20:58.:21:07.

the comparison is the general election year, when Labour did

:21:08.:21:12.

badly. Labour have gone up, the Conservatives have gone down, as you

:21:13.:21:16.

would expect. The Liberal Democrats up on what was a shocking year last

:21:17.:21:21.

year. The change since 2012 now. This is interesting. At the start of

:21:22.:21:27.

the night, we were looking at figures of Labour going down eight

:21:28.:21:31.

or 9%, struggling to replicate anything like what Ed Miliband got

:21:32.:21:36.

in 2012 when these seats were last contested. Actually, they are only

:21:37.:21:43.

down 4% since 2012, or 3%, much less of a dip and was being predicted.

:21:44.:21:48.

The Conservatives, who had a bad result in 2012, are just steady.

:21:49.:21:53.

Although the minister said it was a good night for the Conservatives,

:21:54.:21:57.

because they have held onto their councils, 2012 was a bad night for

:21:58.:22:01.

them, and one reason Labour have not been evicted from some of the red

:22:02.:22:05.

councils is there hasn't been no warmth in the Conservative

:22:06.:22:14.

performance. -- note oomph. Let's look at the share in the South.

:22:15.:22:23.

Labour down 4% overall, and 3% down in the south, so they are losing a

:22:24.:22:28.

bit less in the south. He would not have thought that. They are a bit

:22:29.:22:31.

more stable in the areas they find most difficult. The Conservatives

:22:32.:22:39.

down on a bad result in 2012 in their heartland, so crumbs of

:22:40.:22:43.

comfort for Labour. Not a lot of change, but the map telling us quite

:22:44.:22:44.

a lot. But go to Norwich, Norman Lamb is

:22:45.:22:55.

waiting to talk to us. Your sense of what your party has done on the

:22:56.:23:00.

basis of a very challenging couple of years, where are you today? It is

:23:01.:23:07.

many years since I was last able to say the Lib Dems have gained, but

:23:08.:23:13.

that is what we are seeing today. It is modest, there is nothing dramatic

:23:14.:23:16.

happening, but we have just heard from Jeremy Vine we are up four

:23:17.:23:23.

points on last year. We have gained two constituencies from the SNP in

:23:24.:23:27.

Scotland. That would be hard to imagine just a few months ago.

:23:28.:23:31.

Kirsty Williams in Wales gaining a seat that we lost to the

:23:32.:23:36.

Conservatives in the general election last year. Across England,

:23:37.:23:43.

modest gains. Green shoots, after a near fatal knockout blow last year.

:23:44.:23:47.

It shows there is still life there, and we are fighting back. That

:23:48.:23:53.

thought is interesting, for now, on this basis, given that you are

:23:54.:23:58.

coming from a pretty low base in some of these areas, what is the

:23:59.:24:04.

route to get back to a serious share representation in some of these

:24:05.:24:08.

local authorities? We have to continue what we are doing,

:24:09.:24:12.

identifying seats which we are capable of winning and targeting our

:24:13.:24:15.

effort to make sure we make the breakthrough. It is brilliant to see

:24:16.:24:20.

John Leech, the former MP for Manchester Withington, getting back

:24:21.:24:24.

onto Manchester council as the sole opposition member to Labour.

:24:25.:24:31.

Nationally, work is under way, but we have to be clear to the public

:24:32.:24:36.

about what we stand for. So that people understand the point in

:24:37.:24:40.

voting for the Lib Dems. I am very clear in my view that there is a

:24:41.:24:46.

desperate need for a liberal, progressive movement to challenge

:24:47.:24:51.

the Conservatives. Labour has taken itself way off to the left. If you

:24:52.:24:56.

just get a sense that the Tories have no challenge, you get arrogant

:24:57.:25:02.

and complacent Government. That is why it is important we rebuild as

:25:03.:25:10.

fast as we can. It is good to talk to you. The First Minister in

:25:11.:25:17.

Scotland will be making a statement in Edinburgh at 2pm, which we will

:25:18.:25:23.

cover live. Let's go to Gavin Esler. Can we expect the message to be

:25:24.:25:29.

roughly what we heard in that speech she gave overnight, where she gave

:25:30.:25:33.

her personal pledge to all people in Scotland about the form of

:25:34.:25:37.

governance they can expect? I think that is right. It has been a good

:25:38.:25:42.

result for the SNP, they are just short of an overall majority, but

:25:43.:25:46.

she is capable of governing in Scotland is a big minority

:25:47.:25:50.

Government. That kind of message of bringing people together is what we

:25:51.:25:53.

will hear. It has been a terrible night for Labour, their woes may

:25:54.:25:59.

continue into next year, with the local council elections in Scotland,

:26:00.:26:02.

people talking about them facing a disaster even in Glasgow. It has

:26:03.:26:05.

been a huge day for the Conservatives. Ruth Davidson knows,

:26:06.:26:11.

we have joked about it in the past, that in some areas you are more

:26:12.:26:15.

likely to bump into Elvis than somebody who would be prepared to

:26:16.:26:18.

say that they vote Conservative. She is trying to change that and she has

:26:19.:26:23.

done very well for her party, partly by distancing herself from the

:26:24.:26:25.

Conservatives in London. She promises to be the unofficial Leader

:26:26.:26:31.

of the Opposition. Very interesting, back with you later. A quick update

:26:32.:26:40.

on the London mayoral election, John Curtice has sent me a message. Given

:26:41.:26:44.

the current state of the first preference count of the election, it

:26:45.:26:51.

looks as though Sadiq Khan might win by 57% to 43%. That is a very big

:26:52.:26:58.

margin. We are not there yet, but that is what John is suggesting at

:26:59.:27:03.

this point. Counting is still going on. This is what City Hall are

:27:04.:27:10.

showing us in terms of the progress of the boat. It is continually being

:27:11.:27:15.

updated on their website, it is a very transparent process. Before we

:27:16.:27:19.

leave you for the lunchtime news, a quick look at the Council tally as

:27:20.:27:27.

it stands across England. It is important. That is far better than

:27:28.:27:34.

the Labour Party were expecting. A quick look at the councillors.

:27:35.:27:54.

People had been talking about possible losses of 150 or 200 for

:27:55.:28:02.

the Labour Party, nowhere near that. The Conservatives pointed to that is

:28:03.:28:07.

a positive thing. After listening to Norman Lamb, you can understand the

:28:08.:28:12.

Lib Dems are pleased to be talking about gaining councillors.

:28:13.:28:22.

More results to come, because we are keeping tabs on what is going on in

:28:23.:28:27.

London, the London assembly, and the Mayor of London, not forgetting

:28:28.:28:32.

there are results coming in from Northern Ireland. And there are

:28:33.:28:39.

dozens of results from the Police and Crime Commissioner is across

:28:40.:28:43.

England and is all to come. I thank my guests for joining us. We are

:28:44.:28:49.

back at 2pm. The first, the BBC News at 1pm with Kate Silverton. Goodbye

:28:50.:28:51.

for now.

:28:52.:28:57.

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