Part 1 Election 2017: Wales

Voting is about to close, Wales and the rest of the UK have spoken. Who

will form the next Government? Who is heading to Downing Street? Stay

with us for the whole picture from Wales and beyond. Welcome to

election 2017 Wales. Good evening. Welcome to BBC Wales

election headquarters live in Cardiff. You have made a decision

after this unprecedented election campaign. In just a few minutes

time, we will be revealing the findings of the exit poll which

should give us some idea of the winners and the losers tonight. It

has been seven weeks since the Prime Minister Theresa May shocked us all

and called this snap election. She moved into Downing Street less than

a year ago after David Cameron resigned when he lost his fight to

keep the UK in the Union. Will Mrs May keep the top job in British

politics? Or will Jeremy Corbyn be handed the keys to number ten? Stay

with us on BBC Wales on BBC radio Wales and we will bring you the

whole story all through the night. In Wales, there are 40 seats up for

grabs. The remainder of the fifth hundred and 60 MPs are chosen to

represent seeds in England. As those results come in, we will be shown

how they shape the big race to number ten. Yes, I am here in our

virtual reality graphics studio. As the results come in, I will show you

how that changes the political landscape in Wales, how that affects

the make-up of the House of Commons and ultimately decides which party

leader walks up Downing Street and through that door to number ten.

Much more throughout the night. All the main party leaders have been

campaigning hard, but will be doorknocking and the debating

payoff? Will Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood be looking for more seats for

her party in parliament? Can Tim Farron's liberal Democrats make a

comeback? Now that Brexit is happening, what is in store for Ukip

and their leader Paul Nuttall? In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon's SNP are

defending a land landslide. What happens here and in other cities

like this will give us a strong signal about who might make it to

number ten and how big their majority will be. SNP dominance, the

big story here two years ago when the party won 56 of Scotland's 59

seats with the bar set so high, can they do it again? Of course, we will

bring you all the Welsh results, our reporters all across the country

will keep us up to date and on this over Felicity Evans will be getting

reaction from politicians and pundits. Yes. We will. I am not

short of company and I won't be all night. The politicians will be

giving me their reaction and analysis of the results as they come

in. As you would expect, all the cheers and the tears from my guests

on the sofa. You will not miss a thing. Tonight we will talk to the

big names and we will have expert analysis from professors and pundits

joining us throughout the night. Crunching the numbers will be our

political editor. We will be reflecting on all these results as

they come in and we will be trying to make sense of them. Most

crucially, we will become Carr putting them into the bigger

picture, not just across Wales, but right across the UK as the results

come in. In a moment, as Big Ben strikes ten o'clock, we will resist

Connacht reveal the -- revealed the results of the exit poll. There is

of course a margin of error. People across the UK were asked how they

voted. Conservatives, the largest party. That is the poll and we have

the detail. The Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, the SNP on 34,

Lib Dems on 14, Plaid Cymru on three and the Greens on one. Ukip on zero

and the other parties a combination of 18 votes. Seats, I should say.

Let's go straight for some more analysis with our win. The BBC asked

over -- many people how they voted as they left. We are predicting that

the Conservatives will be the largest party, astonishingly short

of an overall majority. Let's just run through those numbers again.

Theresa May, the leader of the Conservative Party will be leading

314 MPs according to our poll. They're in mind, those polls can be

run. That would be a drop of 17 from the results of the Conservative

Party two years ago in the 2015 General Election for some is usually

disappointing night for the Conservatives of that turned out to

be the case. Labour on 266. Up 34. On where they were after the 2015

General Election. The SNP took almost all the seats in Scotland,

56, down to 34 member is a Parliament for Nicola Sturgeon's

party. Down 22 from their showing in 2015. The Liberal Democrats,

disappointing night for them two years ago, but they are up to 40

members of Parliament according to our exit polls. Plaid Cymru

remaining on three members of Parliament, that would mean the

fourth election in a row when they have remained on three members of

Parliament. Ukip, for Paul Nuttall, not his Eagle MP according to the

poll. A drop of one. -- not a single. Those are the numbers, let's

see how that changes the make-up of the House of Commons. The chamber. I

will take you dummy stares into our virtual reality chamber. It still a

big block of blue on the side, but a lot smaller than it was two years

ago. There is the magic number. 326, you can see the line there. Why is

that the magic number? Any party wanting to have a majority

Government needs to pass 326 to get that majority. As you can see,

according to the opinion poll, the exit poll, they are short of that by

12 members of Parliament. They are going to have to rely on somebody

else. Let's look at the other side and see where will that support come

from? Unlikely to come from the Labour Party. There is a large red

block here than there was two years ago for Jeremy Corbyn's party. 266

MP, up 34 from where they were. A smaller yellow block for the SNP,

down from 56 to 34. There is a slightly larger Liberal Democrats

block there, 40 members of Parliament for them. And for Plaid

Cymru, according to the exit poll, three MPs. And the Greens, according

to this exit poll, retain their one member of Parliament. You will see

at the back there, there is a grey block. That is the 18 seats that you

get from Northern Ireland. There wasn't pulling in Northern Ireland,

so we will have to see what the results are before we can see what

the details are on that one. At the moment, according to this exit poll,

and we know polls haven't been as accurate as we would like them to be

over the last two months, but that would suggest that. Back to you.

Thank you. Plenty to talk about there. You can join in with

hashtags. You can follow us on Twitter and there will be results,

comment and analysis on our live pages all night and tomorrow on BBC

Wales .co .uk. Let's take a closer look at the exit poll with our

political experts. Good evening. It will be a long night and an

interesting night. That exit poll, what did you make of that? If it is

going to be the case, it is an extraordinary result. Initial

response is that it has not worked for Theresa May. She went into this

General Election to increase the size of her majority and that exit

poll is indicating that that is not going to be the case. It would

appear to have backfired spectacularly and equally, it would

show and be a strong indication for the campaign run by Jeremy Corbyn

and all the fears that he was just preaching to the converted, would

prove not to be the case. A lot of scepticism about exit polls, they

have been pretty accurate in the last three elections. Does that feel

about right to you? I'm not sure. I think the last exit poll in 2015

predicted they were 15 seats out. That was critical in this case, if

we're of being 12 seats out, and margin of error like that is about

right. And it is right, this has been a disastrous campaign for

Theresa May. She started with a healthy lead with a kind of energy

around the whole campaign, it is incredible to end up somewhere near

this which is almost certainly where we will end up now. Richard, would

you agree? I will add a health warning. The way they do this, they

go to 144 polling stations throughout the UK. There is every

indication this is a very difficult set of results, Brexit seems to have

changed things, Ukip seem to have been cobbled up, the Greens, there

have been lots of changes this time round. It is a very brave effort,

these are the best people in the business. This is as good as you can

do it, but there must be a health warning about this. They could be

out. It is going to be out. But how much? It is a really big question.

If this is correct... Let me just show pictures of Sunderland South

where counting has started. They are always first. Always a race. They

have got people lined up, in their trainers, young people, it is a

Labour stronghold. They have won it in the last six general elections

and will probably win again in terms of getting first without result. We

are expecting it in 40 minutes or so. The real poll will start coming

in. Back to the exit poll, Richard, you are sceptical. I think we are in

uncharted two rains here. There has been a lot of changing the electoral

system -- terrain. It is awful for Theresa May, a personal triumph for

Jeremy Corbyn, awful for Nicola Sturgeon, we have re-mention how bad

it is for Nicola Sturgeon. They are the party who lose out most in this

poll. Richard is absolutely right. 40,000 odd polling stations across

the UK and this is a small sample. But they have got to be pretty

dramatically wrong in this case for this to be anything other than a

disastrous election for the Tories. Interesting constituencies for the

Tories. Not least the ones in Wales which will be interesting. Yes, an

interesting night whatever happens. Let's go across to the panel. As

always, sharp intakes of breath when we get exit polls doing these

election programmes. Let's see what our panellists make of it. What did

you make of this exit poll? Given all the caveats we've heard, it is

quite right. Historically, we find exit polls of this nature are

usually with about 15 or 20 seats. That 15 or 20 seats across the UK is

crucial in this particular outcome because it is difficult as you can

see now that this has not been anything but a personal disaster the

Theresa May. Many of us felt we didn't need a General Election. I

got the views from people when canvassing that people didn't want

an election, it was very much made as a vehicle for Theresa May herself

and it looks like she has failed to get a majority. I suspect, I know

the Conservative Party pretty well, the knives will be a pretty quickly

to get rid of her. I would agree with all of that. Canvassing myself,

I came across people time and time again who were really cheesed off

that they had this election forced on them. They resented this, they

couldn't see why it was happening. I could never see why it was happening

because being in Parliament myself, I could see on a daily basis that

Theresa May and the Conservatives had a perfectly workable majority.

They were not losing votes in the Commons and they were losing a tiny

number of votes in the Lords, which were then returned to the Commons. I

fail to understand why she called the election and she has come very

badly unstuck, it would seem. It was called for cynical and opportunistic

reasons, she thought that Jeremy Corbyn was spectacularly unelectable

as a potential Prime Minister. The Labour Party was in meltdown and she

quite cynically decided that she would take advantage of that. She

thought it was an open goal to kick the ball into. It is done

spectacularly wrong because she is a disastrous electoral campaign and I

think the public at large are not mugs. They can see politicians for

what they are when they have tried to pull a fast one. That is what has

happened here. In a way, I am obviously now fearful about what

this means for the Brexit process if this poll is accurate, in a sense, I

like to see people rising up against politicians who are taking them for

full. We don't have a Conservative here to

defend the decision to call an election. But there would have been

general a election scheduled at the end of the Brexit negotiation

process, which Theresa May said would have made it difficult to

strike that hard bargain. Do you buy that? Well, we will have a Tory

shortly to defend her. Everyone agrees it was a cynical move. If she

wanted to validate her position as Prime Minister, she should have done

that last year. Shisha have said, I have been appointed and I will now

have an election and get myself validated -- she should have said

that. But this has been proved to be opportunistic. And she has proved to

be an electoral liability. She made the whole thing about herself. It

was Theresa May? Battle bus, my manifesto, my, my, my. She has come

across as robotic, whereas Jeremy Corbyn comes across as a genuine

conviction politician and people like that. Let's see some life

pictures of the count in Newcastle. It is always a race in the

north-east to see who is first. Normally, Sunderland South wins.

Look at that athleticismmacro that is what we need. Then we can put

meat on the bones of this exit poll. Courtesy of that lady, I think we

are going to get some results soon. That is very good going. We will

hear more from our panellists shortly and talk about what this

exit poll suggests for their own party. But for now, back to you.

Right, we are going to go to Scotland. As we have established,

this poll is very interesting for the SNP. The exit poll suggests that

they would be down 22 seats, which would be a huge shock for Nicola

Sturgeon. Our reporter is there. How is it going down? Welcome to the

Emirates Arena here in Glasgow, where the first boxes have just

arrived and accounting will be getting under way for the seven

Glasgow constituencies across Scotland, 59 seats up for grabs

tonight. You will remember that two years ago, the SNP, on that

remarkable night, won 56 of those seats. The question tonight is, how

many of those seats can the party defend? We have seen the exit poll

suggesting that the SNP is on course to lose 22 of those seats, ending up

on 34 of the 59 across Scotland. I have had some early reaction from

some SNP members to the exit poll. Councillor Alex Wilson, an SNP

councillor in Glasgow, told me that they don't expect that many losses.

They are expecting some, but they still expect to end the night with

more than 40 seats. They think the exit poll is out had harsh and the

SNP does not expect to lose any seats in Glasgow, where they took

all seven seats last time. The other question will be, how many seats can

the Scottish Conservatives win in Scotland? In 1997, the Scottish

Conservatives were wiped out, losing every seat in Scotland. Since then,

they have never held more than one seat. But opinion polls in the last

few weeks have suggested that that is about to change and that they are

on course to win seats, perhaps into double figures. They are in a

buoyant mood. These are things we will find out over the coming hours.

And of course, independence has dominated things, not what Nicola

Sturgeon wanted to talk about. That's right, Nicola Sturgeon

throughout this campaign has been trying to distance the SNP from the

independence debate. I have been looking at the SNP manifesto, and

the independence issue is quite far down in it. But the other parties

have still be accusing her of being obsessed with independence. She says

that in truth, it is the other parties who are trying to focus on

independence, trying to scare voters in Scotland about the prospect of

another independence referendum. These are all things we will be

discussing over the coming hours. Now back to Felicity in Cardiff.

Thanks very much and we will be back to Glasgow shortly. We can get

Conservative and Labour reaction now to our exit poll. Let's start with

the Conservatives and their leader in the Welsh Assembly, Andrew

Davies. If this exit poll is true, it's a disaster for your party.

Well, I have said throughout the campaign that the numbers need to be

crushed and we will see how the seats come in. I have been

up-to-date in seven different target seats today. The biggest winner was

the rain. It was pouring down. I pay tribute to our activists and

candidates who had enthusiasm. You did have a shocker of a campaign,

though. You had a Prime Minister who firstly chose to go to the polls

after saying she wouldn't, and then deciding to take a very presidential

reached during the election campaign, only to come unstuck

several times and to look pretty little and find it difficult to

connect with voters. I disagree. Theresa May put herself front and

centre. She leads, and that is what leadership is about. She would not

debate with Jeremy Corbyn. I saw her on numerous programmes with audience

participation and one-on-one interviews. This is a democracy.

Let's see how the votes come in. We have not had one seat declared yet.

All opinion polls need to be treated with caution. But they do give a

sense of what may have been going on. Of course. But if this is

vindicated, she will have to go, when she? I have had this huge

privilege of working with Theresa May over the last eight months and

before that when she was Home Secretary, and before that when she

was party chair. I have every confidence in Theresa May. But we

are at the start of the evening and we need to work through these

results. Vaughan for Labour, your reaction? Two things. At the end of

any general election campaign, the successful campaign is winning the

campaign and having a Labour government. But use if you think

where we started, on average 15 point behind in the polls, people

expected us to be wiped out. This has been a remarkable turnaround.

The campaign is definitely different. We have seen Theresa

May's weakness and signs of Jeremy Corbyn having a personality and a

manifesto that went down well with lots of people. And in Wales, there

a strong Welsh Labour brand. So there is a number of positives, but

bear in mind the truth that a successful Labour campaign would be

a Labour government. But this is a much better results than anyone

expected at the start of the campaign, when Theresa May was 15

points ahead in the polls. We have to keep making the caveat that this

is only an exit poll, but does the better than expected Labour

performance go into the credit column for Jeremy Corbyn, or does he

benefit from the poor campaign that was run by the Conservatives? Was he

a proactive driver of this relative success, or did he simply benefit

from a shocker of a campaign from the Conservatives? Both, surely. You

can't say Theresa May's performance had no impact. The U-turn on social

care was important both to leadership, but also to trust. Not

just a big U-turn in the middle of a campaign, but also than saying

nothing had changed. That annoy a lot of people. They said, that is a

lie. The second point is that Jeremy Corbyn did draw lots of crowds and

if young people in particular have voted in large numbers, there will

be credit for him from that, but we need to see all the results across

the country. There will be differences. I want to see Labour

running the UK with a different ethos and a different direction

across the country. This poll suggests you are a long way from

that. We are some distance away. That is the honest truth. There is

no point coming here and trying to say everything is fine when it

isn't. We need to make up for the ground in Scotland. We would also

need to make more ground in swing seats in Wales and England. Winning

seats like Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan would also suggest

we could win similar seats in England. We will need to see the

detail of the results. But from where we started, real credit for

us. But as a Labour politician who wants a Labour government, success

is a Labour government. But this is such an improvement. More from our

panel shortly as we continue to digest this exit poll. Beth, over to

you. Lots of reaction coming in. George Osborne, the former

Chancellor, said it is catastrophic if true. I am sure he might relish

seeing the problems for Theresa May. Maybe that is a bit harsh. No! He

has enjoyed being an editor of the paper. Three beautiful reporters are

ready to talk to us in key battle grounds in Wales. We have Beth Lewis

in Bridgend. Let's go there first before we go to Wrexham. Quite a

battle between Labour and the Conservatives in the First

Minister's backyard. How is it looking? Theresa May came here at

the start of the campaign to a community centre, and that was a

statement of confidence and ambition for what they could achieve in

Wales. They thought they could take seats in Wales that they had not

held since the 1980s. At that time, they were talking about taking nine

or ten seats from Labour. The polls were suggesting that at the time. It

was not just Bridgend, it was Wrexham and Newport and possibly a

couple of seats in Cardiff. That was a long time ago. A couple of weeks

ago on the campaign trail, I talked to a senior Welsh Conservative who

was talking in terms of a rugby team. He said maybe 15 Welsh MPs,

with possibly a couple of extra squad members, up from the 11th of a

football team they have at the moment. And Bridgend was one of the

seats at the forefront because of a majority being in breach of the

Conservatives if the opinion polls at that time were to be believed.

Today I spoke to somebody in the bus Conservatives who said they were

looking at increasing their share of the vote to the biggest share they

had had in parliamentary elections. But he was not sure what that would

mean in terms of seats. But if they didn't take the seats of Bridgend

and Wrexham, at a minimum it would be a huge disappointment for the

party in view of their ambitions at the start. And what time are we

looking for a result? There are two seats being counted here. But it

will be after three o'clock, they are saying. Thank you, Bethan Lewis.

Let's go to Wrexham. Quite a fight over there? Absolutely. Welcome to

this sports hall, which is a stone's throw from the famous racecourse,

Wrexham's football ground. In a few hours, we will get the results of

some of the most fascinating and significant electoral race is not

only here in north-east Wales, but anywhere in Wales. Two

constituencies are being counted, both big Tory targets. Wrexham,

where Labour are sending a majority of 1800 votes, and Clwyd South,

where Susan Elan Jones for Labour is defending a majority of 2500 votes.

Labour are certainly encouraged by that exit poll results. Even before

it was published, a senior source told me things would be tight, but

he was confident that Labour would hold on to both seats. Saying that,

the Conservatives have been quietly confident in recent days and you

can't doubt the significance of this neck of the woods to the

Conservatives. Theresa May has been in this area twice during the

campaign. Carwyn Jones for Welsh Labour has also been here in the

final weeks of the campaign. So the question is for Labour are, will

that surge at the end of the Corbyn campaign have made a difference

here? Will Labour's efforts have made a difference considering that

we are close to the border? The other question is where the Ukip

votes will go if as predicted, there will be a collapse in the Ukip vote?

In Wrexham, there is no Ukip candidate. So there are a lot of

questions and a lot of answers will come soon. One good thing about

Wrexham is that traditionally, the officials here are very quick at

counting, among the first in Wales. We expect Wrexham and Clwyd South to

be declared, hopefully, by two o'clock. But now I have said that, I

have probably jinxed it. In this real fight. Plaid Cymru look

incompetent or are Labour smiling? -- looking confident? This is of

course one of Plaid Cymru's top seats and they have recent form here

with their party leader, local girl Leanne Wood having won a stunning

victory here last year. Strong results here in May's local

election. They were hoping to build some momentum and overturn Labour

stole what Chris Brian's majority. Even before that exit poll, I was

talking to sources in both Plaid Cymru and labour, thinking that

Plaid Cymru were going to come up a little short. Some of those

traditional Labour voters who at the start of the campaign were wavering

were looking at those opinion polls about a Tory landslide and have over

the course of the period coming slightly back as the anti-Tory vote

has solidified. That is a problem for Plaid Cymru of in other places.

Given a bizarre that the campaign, they have been thinking it was a

--... It seems that is closer than they expected. One ray of sunshine

is the character yon seat. They were hoping to take that back from the

Liberal Democrats. -- Canada DM. At since that election, they have

helped three seats. Their best ever return is for. They were suggesting

they could break those records, five, six or even higher number of

seats. It seems from what I have been told that they may well stand

still, maybe win the seat back that they won in the past and if that

does come to pass, then we may well be asking at the end of the

selection a question we have asked of several other recent elections,

if Plaid Cymru are not going to be able to take seats from Labour in

this election, when are they going to do it? Thank you very much. We

will be back to James, it will be a fascinating night. Let's have a look

at the counting in Maidenhead, which is Theresa May's constituency. There

we go. They are counting there. If indeed she does believe this exit

poll, it will not make very comfortable reading at all for her

but she has a very healthy majority in Maidenhead. They are still

running, got it down to a fine art in Sunderland. All the local tutors

are helping out there. -- local youths. They are looking like they

will be first, but they have done it seven times before. Lots of

intelligence coming in, lots of sources, what are we hearing of

interest about Welsh seat? We have had a pretty good summary, the

people I spoke to yesterday were feeling pretty happy in Labour than

they were months ago. There be Cheshire cat grin is everywhere

following that. I still think that the north-east is going to be

extremely interesting, the fact that other Plaid Cymru sources talking

about a big blow for them. If the exit poll is correct, then the

Liberals have not had a great night. 14 is still very low, but it is

progress from where they were. I'm quite surprised that Ceredigion

is being talked about. Yes, people piling into Ceredigion helping out.

Here is the counting. Not quite the athleticism that we saw in

Sheffield, but very cautiously counting there. No real urgency.

That is a stark contrast, isn't it? Feeling a bit unkind. It will be a

long night yet. Another thing worth saying is that if these numbers are

correct, with all caveats, we get into very interesting conversations

about Government formation. Potentially another conservative

Liberal Democrat coalition on the cards. He has ruled out, hasn't he?

He's not going there. If you remember, Sinn Fein don't take their

seats, that reduces us down immediately. Sinn Fein may well

become another seat this evening. DUP conservative arrangement?

Potentially. These are very tricky, the majorities will be wafer thin.

Heart Brexit negotiations will be extremely difficult. -- hard. What

are backfiring election if this is the case, she should never have

called it if it is true. Strong and stable going into Brexit, it is

anything but. Absolutely. The fact that Richard and I would just doing

the calculations about where some additional votes may come from in

order to establish a conservative coalition Government or supported

Government, it says it all. This was an almighty gamble and it has

already completely backfired. We don't know the results, we have

gotten exit poll which incidentally leak methodology is becoming

stronger and stronger. The 2015 poll it was 15 hour, but before that it

was almost perfect. This is very difficult territory for the

Conservatives. She had to get the majority for this election to pay

off. That was generally the thinking. That was right. People had

different views, but broadly a figure of 50 or 60 or above. To an

extent, I am reeling from those figures from the exit poll. What

I've been thinking about is the rhetoric in the campaign that we all

heard. The need to go into Brussels in ten days' time, remember, for

those Brexit negotiations which are due to start a thumping majority.

The need to have stability going in and an incredibly turbulent time

anyway. Now, potentially we have this scenario which is anything but

Babel. That would surely bring in a coalition with the Conservatives,

which would bring a second referendum. Indeed. I was at in

Wrexham the launch of the Welsh Conservative manifesto. That was in

a way the low point of the U-turn on social care. The script -- let's go

to Downing Street. Is she in? Is the Prime Minister there? No sign of the

Prime Minister. The lights are on but there may be no one at home.

Extraordinary exit poll, the Conservatives at UK level Rilee

Rossouw using to believe it, taking comfort from the fact that their

support was underestimated by the exit poll and in 1992, as well. --

really refusing to believe it. We have heard from the Chancellor

George Osborne, no fan of Theresa May who has described it as a

catastrophe for the Prime Minister and the Conservatives. If it is

true, what future lies ahead for forming any sort of Government? It

is difficult to see how the numbers add up on either side, there are

also going to be big questions about Theresa May's leadership, about her

own future. This was an election she didn't have to call, she chose to

have it. At the start, she had a 20 point opinion poll lead and if the

exit poll is right, or anywhere near accurate, she has lost her majority.

Which is a pretty extraordinary thing to do. It raises questions

about the Brexit negotiations, every vote for her, every increase in her

majority would actually strengthen her negotiating hand in Brussels. On

her own record, she has failed if this poll is accurate. Thank you

very much for now, David. Let's take a look at what is going on. We can

see the count here. He is waiting anxiously for the count there, it

has been a very tight fight with Labour there. This is the counting

in Denbigh. They'll often account going on there. Again, opening the

ballot boxes. -- Vale of Clywd. We will see how the counting speeds up

there in Denbighshire. Let's go for a look at how the Brexit vote

affected this election. It was called the Brexit election, we were

all expected to be all about Brexit, but it didn't play the all

encompassing role that some of us were expecting. How could it affect

the vote. This was the election last time round, let's change that into

how these constituencies voted in the Brexit referendum last year. A

bit of a caveat here because the results came out along with the 22

local authority council areas. There is a bit of guesswork that has gone

into this, but we can say that 27 of these 40 constituencies in Wales

voted to leave the European Union, ten voted to stay and three, it is

kind of too close to call. Let's take you to one very much clearly

leave constituency which is this one here, Clywd South. Key marginals

between Labour and the Conservatives, how things pay out

there? Let's just how clue itself voted in that referendum last year.

60% of people wanted to leave the referendum. -- Clywd. Let's look at

the 2015 election result, what you can see it as a Labour held seat.

About three or four thousand votes ahead of the Conservatives.

According to the opinion polls, about half of those people who voted

Ukip in 2015 are giving their vote to the Conservatives this time

round. They like what Theresa May are doing on Brexit. Five and a half

thousand Ukip votes there. Half of that, maybe 3000 votes, given to the

Conservatives. It really evens things out. Even before we are

looking at what could change in this election. It could have a bearing on

how people vote. It doesn't just work in terms of the Leeds side.

There is also a remain element. -- leave. Let's take you to Cardiff

Central. The Lib Dems battle ground. Cardiff Central was the most

pro-remain constituency in the whole of Wales. It works at two thirds

wanting to remain in the European Union, one that wanted to leave. How

could it affect it? As you see, it is a Labour held seat. About 5000

votes ahead of the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems are

interesting because of all the main big political parties they have

given the strongest pro-EU pitch. They have promised that second

referendum on the Brexit steel. Surely, some of these Labour

Conservatives, Greens, Plaid Cymru supporters will lend their vote to

the Lib Dems. How will that affect the difference between the Lib Dems

and the Labour Party? May be Brexit didn't have that much of a massive

impact on the campaign, but it could have a massive impact on how people

will be voting across all these constituencies. There is another

element. The Ukip drop-off in elements. Let's change from our

Brexit voting map to argue keep supporting that. Ukip didn't win any

constituencies, but this sees... See in the South Wales valleys, there is

a lot of Ukip support there. This art of north-east Wales Labour held

seats, strongly supporting Ukip. We know in a couple of those committed

Ukip haven't fielded any candidates. Will any of those go to the

Conservatives as predicted? Maybe Brexit wasn't the all-encompassing

issue for the selection, but it will certainly have a big impact on how

these colours change from 2015 to tonight. We can see pictures of the

counting on Islington North because we can see where Jeremy Corbyn's

constituency, how they are doing there. No sign of him, but he did

win with 60% of the vote last time. He will be hoping to build on that.

Indeed frontal, -- in they come. You are hearing interesting things from

Scotland. Yes, if the poll is correct, this is a disastrous night

for the SMP full stop of the SNP are going to fall that far, there are

some very big names that are in the firing line. Angus Robertson, the

Commons leader, the Conservatives were targeting their seat. If this

poll is correct, then he is almost certainly gone. I am also hearing

that Alex Salmond is in deep trouble, that would be a scalp. The

SNP is having a big issue in the fishing areas in particular, they

will be worried about that area. If this except poll is correct, there

will be some really big SNB names in deep

Is that due to the way the SNP have played down independence? There are

two things going on. In the north-east corner of the Scotland

where the SNP have traditionally done well, it was their heartland.

That is an area where fishing is important and the whole Brexit

situation plays very differently in that part of Scotland compared to

the rest. There is a real get out of Europe view. There is also clearly

lots of tactical voting going on amongst Unionists in Scotland to

take out the SNP sitting MP. So it is a combination of some area

specific things and perhaps a Labour surge in Glasgow, a Corbyn surge in

Glasgow. But also the tactical voting. There is a mixture of

factors. It is hard for the SNP, because they were facing a challenge

from Labour and the Conservatives simultaneously. And it looks as if

the Lib Dems have moved into some of that territory. Thank you for now.

Let's go to Ebbw Vale. Our reporter is there. Counting is under way?

Verification is under way. Some announcements are being made about

what will happen this evening. Could be an interesting one, because it is

a safe Labour seat in theory. But there have been upset here in the

past from independent candidates challenging the Labour Party and

this time around, it looks like Plaid Cymru could mount that

challenge. The same candidates who stood in the Assembly election here

last time is standing again in the Westminster elections this time. He

came within 650 votes of winning this seat at the Assembly elections.

The question is whether he can build on that momentum and win the seat

for Westminster. The Labour Party have yet to comment, other than to

smile at that exit poll Plaid Cymru say there are a lot of that to

Llandudno -- let's go to Llandudno. How is it looking? It is a bit quiet

at the moment. I have spoken to the Conservative Party members and they

were quite shocked at the exit polls, but they were quite confident

locally about the two seats here in Aberconwy and Clwyd West. I have

spoken to Plaid Cymru members. They feel they have had a good campaign

and have possibly increased in Clwyd West. And I haven't met a Labour

candidate yet, so we are not sure how they are feeling, but I believe

there are quietly confident about an increase in the Clwyd West area.

Let's cross to David Grundy in Swansea. Good evening from Swansea.

I feel sorry for my colleagues who are slumming it tonight in leisure

centres. I am in grand surroundings. Two years ago, I did say on the

election programme that we were not expecting any surprises from the

three constituencies they were counting at the leisure centre over

the road, Swansea West, Swansea East and Gower. But I did say we might be

in for a surprise from Gower and what a surprise was. The

Conservative took that seat with just 27 votes, the slimmest majority

of any of the constituencies around the UK. Byron Davies has been doing

some campaigning in Gower. His taxi as for Swansea East on Swansea West,

we are not expecting too many surprises Labour seats for years. --

they have been safe Labour seat for years. No crystal ball gazing

tonight. We are going to get some surprises. Whether the Labour Party

text back Gower, which are lost for two years after having it for 100

years, or whether the Conservatives can keep hold of that seat, it will

certainly be interesting and we could be here for a long time

because the last time, there were two recounts, so three counts in

total. And we finished at about 5:15 a.m.. You always deserve a bit of

grandeur, David! We can now be joined by the leader of the Labour

Party in Wales, First Minister Carwyn Jones. I am sure you are

thrilled with this exit poll. Well, we have to see what the final

results are. A long way to go yet. And there are many votes to be

counted. But things have been volatile. None of us is any the

wiser yet. If it turns out to be correct, will you be the first to

congratulate Jeremy Corbyn? You have held him at arm 's length throughout

the campaign. Not at all. Jeremy Corbyn has run a superb campaign. He

has been energetic. He has spoken to members of the public. He didn't

speak to meeting is full of people like him. He listened, and that was

the difference in this campaign. A lady leadership that listened and

they Conservative leadership that took people for granted and thought

they didn't have to engage in debate. Are you surprised that he

had such a good campaign? Well, he has been in politics for a long

time. He is a man of great principle. With these things, it is

the energy level you need to sustain and he has done that fantastically.

How is it looking in Bridgend? Well, I am not in Bridgend at the moment,

so I couldn't tell you. But what did strike me is the number of young

people coming out to vote. Usually in the polling station near to me,

there is usually a flow of people who are 50 plus at that time of day.

But I was struck by the number of young people. If that is true across

the whole of Wales, we will see a significant rise in the number of

young people voting, which can only be a good thing. It is early days,

but would you look at a party to do deals with anybody if the exit poll

is correct? You are trying to tempt me into making a comment on the exit

poll. In the last few weeks, we have had polls that are all over the

place. We have seen them up and down like a yo-yo. This one is not in

line with the polls we saw last night. I don't do anybody can

understand the results until the votes are counted. Thank you and

hopefully, we will speak to you later. We have pictures now of

Wrexham. We can see the minister smiling. He is looking pretty

chuffed. Will he give us a thumbs up about this vote? He is happy. Maybe

he was saying yesterday rather than coffee, but he looked happy. This is

Ceredigion and we heard earlier about the tight fight there between

the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru. We are expecting a flurry of results

throughout the evening, so please stay with us if you can. Now let's

go back to Felicity. Are the bananas at yet? I do have a secret stash of

bananas. If you are nice to me later, I will let you have a few

keep us going. We are here all night to bring you every declaration.

Let's talk more about this exit poll with my guests and particularly

about what it suggests about the fortunes of the smaller parties.

Jenny round the sun, it looks like there is some progress for the

Liberal Democrats, but not the sort of breakthrough your leader will

have been hoping for? We all enjoyed the idea that there was a massive

surge, but it was obvious to all of us a long time ago that it was going

to be a long, hard slog to rebuild the party after the last general

election result. If the exit poll is accurate, I will have a quiet,

modest satisfaction at that increase. But I would say yet again

come it is very early in the evening. Let's see how things go. I

think we ran a clear, honourable campaign, making it clear that we

were very concerned about Brexit. And I do think that already, it is

obvious that the disaster of the campaign for the Tory party will not

have given Theresa May, even if she remains Prime Minister, will not

have given her the clear hand on Brexit negotiations for a hard

Brexit that she was determined on and I am pleased about that.

Christine Hamilton for Ukip, if this exit poll is true, it suggests that

the country is still split on the sort of Brexit it wants to see and

is not convinced by what Theresa May have to say. She went into the

election saying this was all about Brexit and apparently, she seems to

have got a lot of votes for Ukip. Where would she be if she hadn't? It

would have been even more disastrous for her. If the polls are correct

and Theresa May end up leading a minority government or some new

Conservative Prime Minister, Ukip will be even more important,

obviously not in the House of Commons, but as a force in the

background. The majority of people in the UK voted to leave the EU and

that has to be fulfilled. But if it is the type of Brexit that is the

question. If they haven't voted for Theresa May's hard Brexit, that

suggests that they don't want Ukip's hard Brexit either. Well, I don't

accept the hard or soft Brexit. We are leaving and that means we have

to leave the single market as well. They didn't vote for Ukip. Too many

people feel that Ukip's job is done. Well, it isn't and this poll proves

that. Some people might regret having not voted Ukip when they see

what has happened. They might have thought a stronger Ukip vote would

have been a good thing. Eurfyl ap Gwilym for Plaid, what do you think

the Brexit narrative means in terms of how the vote is split and how the

country is feeling heading towards the Brexit negotiations in 11 days'

time, says Theresa May? I think a lot of people are not clear about

Brexit. I was a Remainer. But when people voted onto, I have been

accused in the past by the BBC of being patronising. But I agree with

President Mitterand, who said the trouble is, people don't answer the

question put on the ballot paper. They saw that referendum is being

driven by people like Cameron and Osborne and therefore, if they

didn't like that Conservative government, they voted no to get

out. Now, as complications and the details of Brexit start emerging, it

wasn't properly debated in this election at all. It was terrible in

that way. We got very little information from the principal

parties about what they were going to do, except for the Conservatives

saying they want to get out of the single market, out of the customs

union, which would be bad for the UK. Now, everything is in a mix. We

will have a weaker government are almost certainly. The Conservatives

will be trying to get support from somewhere else, with a discredited

leader. And with Labour, Jeremy Corbyn has done extremely well and a

lot of their game is due to him, but he is unpopular with the MPs. So

there will be tensions for them as well. And what about tensions within

Plaid? The poll suggests no progress for them. What about your leader and

how she is to be regarded? If Plaid can't make headway in this election,

when can it? Well, it is difficult for us in UK-wide elections. The

media we get in Wales is overwhelmingly the same as the

London-based press. It is different in Scotland. So it is difficult for

us. I don't know the statistics. I don't know how sensitive these exit

polls are the smaller parties. Let's see. Let's go to one of the key

seats for Plaid in this election. Beth is about to talk to the Plaid

candidate there. Former Deputy First Minister, good evening. How is it

looking for you? It is difficult to say at this early stage, because

they only started counting an hour ago. It is too early to predict but

it is my suspicion that it has been a good night for Labour generally

and it looks as though Plaid has been squeezed in many parts of

Wales. Was that the feeling you were getting on the doorstep until today?

No, it wasn't. We were getting a good response on the doorstep and I

fought a positive campaign, talking about the relationship that Wales

has to have with Europe going forward with Brexit happening. We

have to defend our rural communities and so on. So it was a positive

message I was presenting. But until the result here is announced, we

will not know whether it was successful. You sound a bit

deflated. Is that what you are getting across Wales, the same sort

of response, no breakthrough? I didn't quite hear that question.

Just wondering if that is the sort of response you are getting that you

haven't made a breakthrough that either. I don't know. We don't know

what the result is. I assume you are asking whether we made a

breakthrough here, yes? Yes. I'm not hearing you very well,

unfortunately, because the sound is rather muffled, but assuming whether

you are asking if we made a breakthrough here, it is too early

to tell. Looking at the exit poll, some of the feelings that we have

had during the day, perhaps Labour are doing better than we expected.

Leanne Wood once again has had an awful lot of exposure in the UK wide

and Welsh debates, would you have expected to do better? We don't know

the result yet, but do you think that has had an impact? Clearly, it

was a very difficult General Election because it was held at very

short notice and it looks to me as though things have become extremely

polarised between on the one hand a fairly right-wing Conservative

manifesto and a very left wing Labour manifesto. It looks as though

things are polarising between those opposites. Unfortunately, it does

look as though, although I don't know because I haven't seen any

other evidence, but it does look as though perhaps Plaid Cymru have been

fairly squeezed. That may be the result across Wales, I don't know

myself. Let's see what happens. Thank you very much. We will be back

to you and will find out whether you are heading back to Westminster.

That point there about this exit poll and how accurate it can be

about smaller parties in specific areas. It is a fair point. As I

started in the programme, I will add lots of caveats. The sample around

144 polling stations across Britain, rather than the UK, as far as I can

see. Then they measure change from the last time round. That has been

very accurate in the last few elections any margin of error has

been very small. If this is a change election, if is an election where

the political tide has shifted, then it is going to be very difficult to

pick up changes at a local level. We are going to see parties being

squeezed. If you look at the last General Election, Ukip were on 12 or

13%. The greens were on three or 4%. Light camera were on three or 4%.

There are votes to be squeezed. -- Plaid Cymru were an... I was talking

about Scotland earlier, this shock result from Scotland, but if you

look at these small detailed the small print of what the BBC are

saying it is that lots of these seats are too close to call. They

are going for the highest odds. Let's just look at pictures of

Sunderland, there we see we think the first result is imminent. Of

course, we can see the armed police there, tight security in many

polling stations across the UK to date and at the counts. This is

Sunderland, we expect Sunderland South to do it again. They deserve

to win, don't they? They do. What a professional operation. Just a

reflection on Wynn Jones there, pretty downbeat. Maybe it is too

close to call clearly also -- a reflection on Ieuan Wyn Jones. Gave

a reflection of his party having a tough night. The 2-party squeezed

that we have seen. Maybe a bit more of a reflection on that exit poll,

what it means in terms of the Brexit process. Again, the health warnings

as Richard has talked about. If it is true that the Conservatives have

not made any games, on a ticket going a pretty hardline message on

Brexit, if I can put it in those terms, Theresa May threatening to

walk away with no deal, making immigration the priority, going

after that Ukip vote, on one level, the inevitable reading of results

like this will be that people want a softer approach to Brexit. Whoever

goes into that talk, won't go into a threat of pulling away with no deal.

If it is right, what about Theresa May and the exit poll? There will

be? Is over her personal future as leader. There will be at the back

benches. I don't see how she can emerge from any results that we may

see as diminished or damage. We have a result in Newcastle. There they

are on the stage. Labour Party 24000 and 71. Peter John Stuart Thomson,

Green party candidate 595. And here is the member for the said

constituency. There we go, Newcastle Central and Labour winning there.

This is the result, Labour on 24,074 -- 20 4071. Ukip on fourth place,

the Greens last. A whopping majority of 14,937 for Labour. If you look at

the share of the vote, 65% for Labour. 25% for the Conservatives.

The all important change, Labour up ten. Up 6% for the Conservatives.

Ukip down and crashing down with 11% less and the Greens are on minus

three. A swing from Conservative to Labour of 2.1%. It is one result,

but extremely interesting. One thing that is interesting there, is where

does the Ukip vote go. I think quite a few of us were always sceptical

that the Ukip vote would transfer neatly to the Conservative vote in

every seat. I think this is important in a couple of seats in

Wales because if some of that vote goes to Labour, that would condition

some of the votes in the north-east of Wales for Labour. That fits the

narrative of the exit poll, doesn't it? We saw a squeeze there. As Laura

just rightly pointed out, albeit Ukip vote does not transfer to the

Conservatives. Some of it has transferred to Labour. No doubt

about it. This will speak to the campaign the Conservatives had. At

the start of the campaign, all the polling evidence suggested that the

Tories were sucking up most of that vote. They have had a campaign which

has reminded some working-class Ukip voters why they didn't like the

Tories in the first place, to be blunt. I think it is pretty damning

reflection on the campaign that Theresa May and her team has had.

Newcastle Central, it is completely dominant as a Labour area. Not

dissimilar to some valleys in the Wales where there was a strong Ukip

vote. In a sense, it doesn't matter where that vote goes on a lot of the

valleys, but it does matter where there is a marginal seat. The Ukip

vote on where it goes is far more complex than we would have thought.

To throw into that the Ukip vote always having a sense of kicking the

system, the rebellious vote, antiestablishment. Maybe Jeremy

Corbyn's campaign will have tapped into some of that as well in a way

that he has tried to restructure the economy and do things in a different

way. That will have been appealing to a lot of people who went to Ukip

a number of years ago. We always said that the Ukip vote wasn't just

about the EU. All of us accept that. It was about the system, a rejection

of the political elite and so on. That is why we are going to see some

really interesting dispersal. That is what Theresa May was trying to

target with the JAMs. Just about managing. Let's remind ourselves

what was being said at the start of this campaign by Conservative

activists, they were hoping for a rerun of 1931 and 1935, an election

which would absolutely put Labour back for decades, not just that this

was going to be a defining election where they could take advantage of

the Brexit tied, to push Labour back for decades. Even that result, this

is a Labour heartland, Brexit supporting, Labour puts on ten

points. An extraordinary result. You have got to say, if it continues,

what an extraordinary couple of years for Jeremy Corbyn. Not that

long ago that over 170 of his MPs had a vote of no confidence in his.

They will be lining up. Sunderland, second result of the night in

Sunderland. They had hoped to be first, of course, that they were

second. Can we have sound from Sunderland?

UK Independence Party, 2379. Labour Party, 24,000... Right, we had big

sound problems, but obviously Labour did Winnett. That is Bridget

Philipson who did have a big majority anyway. A big majority of

the vote last time. It has potentially gone up there, didn't

quite hear what has gone up there. Smiles all round. Another thumping

result for Labour and I hope very shortly we will have the details for

you. Sunderland South, there she is, the new Labour MP, Bridget Philipson

I presume there. Very happy in Sunderland South. Let's talk to Paul

Davies, who is in Haverfordwest supporting Stephen Crowther with a

big rosette. Ashe Stephen Crowther. We have seen the exit polls, it is

much too early to tell at the moment, but obviously we will know a

little bit later. We saw this in 2015, when the exit poll in that

time got it slightly wrong. It did predict a hung parliament then, but

we had a majority. You will be hoping that this one is wrong. What

are you hearing from your target seats in Bridgend and in the

Northeast? I am hearing that we are doing very well in Bridgend, in

Wrexham, as well. Time will tell. What is happening is that all the

other parties are being squeezed by the Conservatives and by the Labour

Party. It seems to me that it will be a two horse race this evening. If

the exit poll is correct, she should never have called this election,

should she? I think she was right to call this General Election because

you made it very clear that there were certain parties going to

frustrate the Brexit process and that is why Theresa May called this

election. She was right to do so and we will see tomorrow morning who has

won the election. As I say, if it is correct, she will be going into

those tough negotiations with a weakened hand. We will have to wait

and see. As I mentioned earlier, the exit poll two years ago wasn't

right. We will have to wait and see how the night progresses. Putting

the exit poll aside, do you think you have had a good campaign? I

think we have run a good campaign. We have talked about the issues that

matter to the people of Wales and to the people of the United Kingdom.

Brexit, of course was very important to people on the doorstep and I came

across a number of lifelong Labour supporters who said that they would

not be voting for Jeremy Corbyn, they couldn't support Jeremy Corbyn

to be Prime Minister and that they were voting for Theresa May and the

Conservatives. It was shambolic at times, wasn't it? On social care,

which is devolved, but on the idea of a cap. It wasn't on the

manifesto. It wasn't well thought through, it seems. I don't accept

that. I think that the Prime Minister made it absolutely clear

that it was right and proper to set out some of the challenges facing

Wales and facing the United Kingdom and that is what we did in our

manifesto. She was being straight and honest with the British people.

Before you go, if you do have to do a deal with somebody, in order to

form a Government, would you be happy with that? We will have to

wait and see. I am still confident that we can win this election and

that the Conservatives will have a majority tomorrow morning. Thank

you. Let's go back to the sofas now. We

have a couple of result in now. Obviously, both safe Labour seats.

But vote share is up. That is obviously encouraging. It is hard to

tell what that means for Wales because as we know, we started in

such a different position. We would not have expected those results at

that point in the campaign. And in Wales, we still have a mountain to

climb. The seats in north-east Wales are difficult. So until we start to

get the results, it will be hard to tell. From a UK wide perspective, it

does show progress for the Labour Party. There is more to do if we

want a majority Labour government. In terms of what the Ukip voters

have done, you have seen a collapse in both seats. The fox has been shot

for Ukip, hasn't it? The question for Ukip since Brexit has been, what

are you for, and the voters seem to be answering that question now.

Well, the question is whether the Ukip -- where the Ukip vote has

gone. There is a common assumption that the Ukip voters and

Conservative voters are twins, which is wrong. Ukip has always drawn its

support from three places, the Tories, Labour and people who have

either never voted before, which kicks in with what our experts were

talking about, that was an antiestablishment vote, or people

who have not voted for so long that they effectively haven't voted. So

Ukip have always drawn support from across the spectrum. It doesn't

surprise me that a lot of Ukip votes have gone to Labour. If the Ukip

vote was about more than Brexit, what does it say to you about the

concerns of the Ukip voters now that they are returning to the two main

parties? Well, we are not expecting anything other than a bad results,

so there is no big shock for Ukip. But Ukip has to find another role.

In Wales, we have the Assembly members and there are plenty of

other things. Ukip has to get over this Brexit hurdle. Their main role

in the immediate years is to make sure that Brexit happens and that

the will of the people is fulfilled. That is looking a little concerning

if we have a hung parliament and maybe another election before the

end of the year. The people have just made a choice in an election,

and that will be the choice of the people. It isn't just a Brexit

election. People vote for all sorts of different reasons. The U-turn on

social care mattered and had nothing to do with Brexit. Theresa May was

dented so severely. Eurfyl ap Gwilym, your thoughts on what

appears to be a return to 2-party politics? After all the obituaries

that were written for 2-party politics, this election seems to

support the idea that at least this time around, it is the two big

parties. This time around, that is fair to say. The results reinforce

the idea of polarisation between Labour and Conservatives. That might

be the pattern today. As McMillan said, events, my dear boy things

change. Heaven forbid we have another general election soon. I

think we're all tired of this one. The public is certainly sick and

tired. But if you think of the likely result that you will have a

Conservative Party which can't command an overall majority in the

House of Commons, you have a Labour Party which is greatly strengthened

and has done well compared with expectation but nevertheless, it is

entrenching Jeremy Corbyn at a time when the majority of Labour MPs last

time around were against him. There will be great tensions to be worked

out and worked through in the Labour Party. It will be a fascinating mix

of forces at work over the coming months and years and this is even

before you add to this chaotic blend Brexit and the whole discussions

with the European Union. We are going to have to calm down for a few

days after tonight and try to think our way through this. It is

horrendously complicated. We live in interesting times. Now back to Bath.

-- back-to-back. Thank you, Fliss. What do you make

of it so far? It has been an interesting campaign because of the

numbers of layers and the politics and economics. It was a Brexit

election, but it wasn't just that. It was many other things. As the

hours go on, what will be interesting is how much some of

those other debates about household income, about living standards, the

kind of things that affect people's pocket, how much that influenced the

way people voted as opposed to and as well as Brexit. That is

particularly relevant for us in Wales, where our wages are 10% lower

than the UK average. Although we have more people working, the

quality of those jobs have some question marks over them. That is

why I'm interested in what is going on in the north-east of England, but

we can talk about that later. Let's go to our correspondent in the brain

by Downing Street. David, welcome back. -- in the rain. What is the

latest on the UK-wide picture? How is the exit poll going down? My

sense is that both major parties are refusing to believe the projection.

The Conservatives don't think it is as bad as the projection appears to

suggest. And Labour are not sure it is that good, based on their own

feedback from doorsteps across the country. The one party that is

talking on the record, the Lib Dem press office, said they have had a

lot of calls and they are saying that even though they might only get

14 seats in this election, no coalition. So you know where you

stand with them. And this is only an exit poll, but if it didn't pan out

like that, would Theresa May's position be in jeopardy? There would

be big questions about her future. This was an election she didn't have

to call. She said every vote for her would increase the mandate and

enable her to negotiate more strongly with Brussels. She reminded

us that those talks start in 11 days' time. The nature of her

campaign drew criticism from within Conservative circles and I would

expect some Conservative voices to go public with that once the results

are in, if they resemble the exit poll. There must be question marks

over her future if she went into an election campaign with a 20 point

lead and ended up losing her majority. Thank you, David. Let's go

to Edinburgh on the BBC's Scotland editor Sarah Smith. Fascinating

reading in this exit poll. And it would be very bad news for the SNP?

It would be extremely bad news for the SNP, but it is being treated

with a great deal of scepticism by them and all the parties across

Scotland. The idea that the SNP could lose 22 seats seems very

dramatic. They are braced for some losses, because they won 56 out of

59 seats in Scotland two years ago. That was a remarkable result and

they knew that there were not going to be able to hold all 56. If you

had told them two years ago that they were on course to win 34 seats

in Scotland, they would have been delighted, funnily enough. They

would have thought that was brilliant. They keep pointing out

tonight that even if it is that bad and they lose 22 seats, that is more

than half of all the seats in Scotland. And that is how you win an

election, by winning more than half of the available seats. So they are

already saying that 34 would in some ways be a victory. Why Harry that

potentially some big names are in jeopardy. -- we are hearing the Alex

Salmond and Angus Robertson could be in jeopardy. What do you make of

those rumours? Angus Robertson's seat has been a target for the

Conservatives. They are hoping to make real gains in this election and

I would love to topple him as the SNP's leader in Westminster. Alex

Salmond, the former First Minister of Scotland, if they could take

that's it, they would be delighted. That is less likely than them being

able to topple Angus Robertson. The dynamic of this campaign in Scotland

has been different from the rest of the UK because the SNP have been the

incumbent party, holding all but three of the seats in the Scotland.

And the Tories have been seen as the insurgents, the ones wanting to make

gains. They would have been happy if they got into double figures. If

they get ten seats, up from the one they have at the moment, they would

be cock-a-hoop. It would show that the tide was turning in politics. It

would be a shift in the momentum. In this campaign, which has been so

based around the question of whether Scotland should have another

referendum on Scottish independence, if the SNP for back a bit and the

Tories come forward a bit, you momentum shifts and the

Conservatives will be able to say that that shows that Scottish voters

don't want another referendum. Therefore, you shouldn't have one.

Let's go to Ceredigion an account there. -- the count there. How is it

looking? It is a bit of a fight. In the past, we may have thought this

was a two horse race between Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, but

from speaking to some of the counters, it seems that it is much

tighter between the four leading parties, Liberal Democrats, Plaid

Cymru, Labour and the Conservatives. This is a target seat for Plaid

Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, Mark Williams defending a majority

of 3000 following the last general election. Plaid Cymru have chosen a

local lad from the Lampeter area. Many say they are pleased with that

and that they would like to vote for somebody who is local. He knows the

area well and a lot of people have said they may vote for him. But it

is hard to dismiss that vote for Labour and the Conservatives. The

Liberal Democrats have been condemned this week following some

pamphleteering and some adverts that have been on Facebook, Mark Williams

saying he knew nothing about it and that he did not allow this to

happen. He apologised in a very vocal hustings on Monday evening.

Lots of heckling from those in the audience accusing him of lying and

cheating on him apologising and saying he was holding an

investigation. As for a result, sometime between two and four the

morning. Let's go to Sharni Layton in Denbigh -- Sharni Layton in

Denbigh. Welcome to the Vale of Clwyd cap. There is a buzz here

because two years ago, this constituency changed colour from red

to blue after a surprise win for James Davis. Labour are hoping to

battle back this evening. They had an MP here for 18 years who lost by

a margin of 237 votes so it is a marginal seat. There are other

candidates. But Plaid Cymru are not hopeful. So realistically, it is a

two horse race this evening. I spoke to James Davies' agent and he was

saying they are cautiously optimistic. The Vale of Clwyd AM

said they are fairly confident of a better result. The main thing here

is the Ukip vote. There is no Ukip candidate this year. In 2015, they

won over 4500 votes, so it will be interesting to see where those votes

go this year. Every vote will count in Denbigh for the Vale of Clwyd.

Let's cross strait to Cardiff. They were last to declare. Are they

speeding up? We are prepared for a long night here. Whatever happens,

that is generally the case here. There has been a lot of excitement

here since the exit poll was announced. It has got people

talking. We have the First Minister, Carwyn Jones, who was very popular

with the media as soon as he arrived not long after that exit poll.

Privately, Labour say they are surprised, but they think they ran a

good campaign. The Conservatives are just not believing what the polls

say. There are three counted tonight. Cardiff North is held by

the Conservatives. That has tended to swing between the Conservatives

and Labour. The Conservatives have a 2000 majority, so they would be

expecting to keep hold of that. But there has been a very big turnout in

the Cardiff North constituency. We don't know what that means yet, but

it could mean an interesting result. Cardiff Central is one that the

Liberal Democrats had their eyes on. That is held by Labour. The Liberal

Democrats don't seem very sure that they are going to get it back. Many

of them said they have probably already written it off. So that is

not likely to change hands. And Cardiff West, which has won a 6500

majority for Labour, should be relatively safe. It is one that the

Conservatives were targeting in this election, but it is looking like

Labour seem happy at the moment. But it is early days.

By the way, the Conservative candidate for Cardiff North has just

arrived in the studio, so we will hear from Craig Williams later on.

Let's go to Leeds. A crucial battle ground, the North of England.

Results beginning to take shape there. Yes. I, welcome to the

splendid surroundings of the town hall where we are keeping an eye on

the key election battle grounds in the North of England. They usually

can't be -- usually count them somewhere else, but Elton John is

performing there. Morley and Outwood provided the big shock of 2015 when

Labour were ousted by the Conservatives. They are hoping they

have done enough to regain that seat they are also talking up here about

being very hopeful of Labour gaining in the Conservative safe seat of

Roswell. I would be quite a scalp. Considerable focus on the Yorkshire

and the east, by the Tories, relentlessly focusing on these safe

Labour territories during the campaign. Strong support for duty

and Brexit. Big questions in terms of the exit poll, they consider it

to be early days to draw big conclusions. A sense of shock. One

interesting fact is that a Welshman is hoping to defend his seat,

Conservative Stuart Andrews from Anglesey, he is defending a majority

of 4500 votes, he hasn't arrived yet, but I ever spoken to some of

his team and they are not sure whether he has done enough to regain

his seat. Some difficult times perhaps facing the Tories here in

Leeds. Thank you. Back to him through the night. We went through

the first results of the night for Newcastle Central which showed a

swing to Labour, the one in Sunderland those shows of the quite

different. That was really interesting. We saw that missed it

too came in at the same time. We must be quite important which is

that it was showing a different swing to the swing identified in the

exit polls. In Sunderland, there was a three and a half percent swing

from Conservatives to Labour. -- from Labour to can Conservatives. I

will have an impact on the seats that Labour art of any in Wales. The

seats that Labour are defending a Bridgend. That is not to say that we

will see an exact replica of that, but nevertheless, it does pose some

issues for us in considering how they may go. You see the result. 59%

for Labour, 34 the Conservatives. -- 30. Look at the change, Ukip

collapsing down 16% and as we see there, the Conservatives up 11% and

the Labour Party up 4%. Look at the swing, labour to Conservatives,

3.5%. Probably, people have been watching us for the past half an

hour and a little bit of the narrative has been clearly

influenced by the exit poll and it is all talking about Labour progress

at the expense of the Conservatives, but, look, look about result there.

The tweet from Tom Newton, the political editor and they are

convinced the exit poll is wrong. It doesn't add up. The point is there

is an awful lot to play for and senior Welsh Conservatives are

telling me it is all to play for. Absolutely. The next poll. We can

talk about it all night, the real thing will start happening. You will

start talking coalitions? Yes. Given what Laura and niqab said, let's add

another pinch of salt to the exit poll. -- Nick has said. David

Cameron was my Conservatives won much more than the exit polls

thought. At the moment, with the current exit poll, it is saying that

no party has an overall majority and therefore to get through that door,

number ten Downing St, we need to do some number crunching. Rolling out

our coalition builder. Let's start with the Conservatives because they

are the largest party with 314. Theresa May is 12 seats short of

that overall majority. That magic number is 326, you need to pass that

for you to get your programme of Government through comfortably. How

shall she do that? They could resurrect the Rose Garden coalition,

David Cameron and Nick Clegg are best friends. If you combine those,

you get 328. It is only just, but it is a majority. But would be little

Democrats want to do that? What is the other option? Let's bring in

Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party. They are 60 short of a majority, so

they have got more numbers to add up, let's bring in the SNP. They

have got 34 and that brings you a cool 300, they will add the Lib Dems

do that, maybe a progressive coalition that we have heard about.

The giddy 314. Exactly the same number by the way as we are

predicting the Conservatives could win, so that will be neck and neck.

If you have got Labour, Lib Dems and SNP, maybe Plaid Cymru would want to

get in there. Maybe the Greens would come in saying that that is

progressive. You still don't get the majority, you get 318. They would be

eight seats short of a majority. It is not easy. We have got the pinch

of salt because we do not know what will happen, but this little grey

block, it doesn't look all that important or impressive, those 18

seats from Northern Ireland. How will those votes go? Want been the

MPs are, who will they support according to our exit polls? It

could be very interesting finding out who finally makes it the through

doors of number ten. It is all to play for. All to play for, yes.

Craig Williams has joined us now for the Conservatives. You are seizing

on the glimmer of hope that the swing there in our second result has

given the Conservatives, Craig. What is your feeling in terms of the exit

poll and whether or not it is right, from what you have heard. It is

interesting to see that Ukip vote collapse and generate a swing in a

seat. It is something we have been looking at throughout this election.

The collapse of Ukip translating to the conservative vote and you are

already seeing, even though there are only two results and, of course

we have got the exit poll we always believe! Two results have already

produced two starkly different swings, so with the other 628 to go,

for however there are to go. 648. With so many still to come in, it is

going to be interesting. What I was reading, there are 9042 are too

close to call. Wales looks remarkably good at the moment. Wales

looks fascinating. We will see it after midnight, between one and two.

Whatever the exit poll, whatever the veracity of the exit poll, you have

had a shocker of a campaign. Theresa May is going to be damaged as a

result of this. All we are basing this on is the exit poll. It is far

too early in the night. Let's see those real results. How you judge a

campaign is through the results. You have got the exit poll framing our

discussion while we have got my results. We have got to starkly

different swings there, let's see how this translates. There are

substantial Ukip vote in some of these Labour Conservative marginals

and how this interacts and plays out, it isn't be a fascinating

night. Calm down, calm down. They were looking at well over a hundred

seat majority at the start of this campaign. Anywhere near that exit

poll is a disaster for the Tories and Theresa May is fatally damaged

as a result. It is interesting that the BBC was like political editor

wrote in one senior Conservative start saying that it is anything

close to 30 seats means she has to go. Use of scribe to that? -- do you

subscribe to that? Are they tired and emotional? You have seen to

starkly different swings already. Next poll is not too dissimilar to

where we were last time. Last time, we crept into majority Government,

but we have got far more seats this time in your uncomfortable zone for

predictions, about 94. That is without factoring in what kind of

different swings the Ukip swing is going to generate. There are some

bizarre seats in the North of England that have huge Ukip votes.

If they collapse, you will see some tremendous swings and there will be

no universality to it and that will be a starkly different election to

what we have seen in recent times. Jenny, we haven't heard from you for

a while. We were talking earlier about the squeeze of the smaller

parties, whatever the exit poll, whether that turns out to be true.

It appears to be the case that smaller parties have been feeding

that back to us during the course of the campaign. What is your

explanation for that? A return in this election to 2-party politics. I

have been talking deeply about white as has been happening. We have had

this drift to a multiparty system and we have electors trying to cope

with many parties in a system that is designed for just two parties. I

can only suggest that it is because the two major parties at this point

are offering such stark different pictures. In the past, there has

been a mishmash in the middle. There has not been that this time. We have

had a extremely strongly socialist manifesto from Jeremy Corbyn and we

have had a right-wing, hard Brexit manifesto from the Conservatives. I

think it is therefore been the case that people have felt compelled to

choose between those two. They have certainly felt that it is a very,

very important election. Absolutely fed up with the fact that they had

to vote again, didn't understand why, but they did understand that

this was a big issue. I want to go back to something that was said a

while ago which was the phrase the will of the people. Goodness knows

what the will of the people is now on the issue of Brexit. One thing is

for sure, they didn't want your recipe which was another referendum.

Clearly, they were not impressed with that and we have fought in

order to get any airtime, any visibility on television debates and

things like that. It has been tougher than it was last time round.

Remember, last time we were given relatively generous amounts of time

to make our case because we were in Government. We had 50 MPs. When you

come down to a small number of MPs, your airtime declines and therefore

it becomes more difficult to make your case. We have found it a tough

election, but we are not down and out, we are definitely still there

fighting. If the exit poll is right, we will have made modest gains and

we are on, we believe, the road back. I am told new members are

continuing to flood into the party this evening. Our party has doubled

in size over the past few months and it appears it is increasing this

evening, as well. Thank you. We have got plenty to talk about on the

sofa, but now it is back to Beth. Thank you. Lots of reaction to this

exit poll on twitter. Let's take a look at some of them. We can see

Paul Nuttall, leader of Ukip, saying... For what is Gary Lineker

is tweeting... It is early days, who knows. Paul Flynn, a veteran MP

hoping to hold on in Newport West, he says... All dependent on the

Verity and how it all turns out for the exit poll. Jennifer Jones is in

the Vale of club organ. Welcome to Barry leisure Centre where I'm sure

you can see behind me that the counting is well underway. We heard

an announcement that the final ballot box has now arrived, all the

votes for the Vale of Glamorgan are in this room. Really, the Vale of

Glamorgan is a two horse race between the Tories and Labour. Alex

Kearns has been the candidates here since 2010. He increased his

majority last time. It is not considered to be one of Wales' most

contested seats. They say could be quite some time before he arrives,

but he has treated to thank his team and his supporters during this

campaign. -- treated. One quick point just finish. The Vale of

Glamorgan is a seat which since it came into being has flip-flopped

between Labour and the Conservatives. They like to back a

winner here in the Vale of Glamorgan, so they have always

elected MPs from the party who has gone on to win election and form a

Government in Westminster. We should hear the outcome at around four

o'clock this morning. Back to Jennifer then.

Here at the Selwyn Samuel centre, which normally is a venue for indoor

bowls, but they have covered the green carpets up tonight as the

counting continues. Two results. Llanelli have only had four MPs for

Labour since 1922 including Nia Griffith, the Shadow Defence

Secretary, who has been the MP since 2005. In the Assembly elections,

this seat has changed hands at every election since 1999. It's been like

a game of tennis between Labour and Plaid Cymru. That shows that there

is of course support for Plaid Cymru in this part of Wales. There is also

a result for Carmarthen -- Caernarfon. The MP here told me

earlier that they were surprised to discover there were 3000 late

registrations to vote in this rural constituency. So the question is,

where will those votes go? It is a very efficient counting machine

here. They expect the first result at 1:15 a.m.. Let's head east and go

to the two Newports. How is the time there? We are told to expect the

results around 3.30, four o'clock. I am at the Wales national velodrome

centre. They have moved the cyclists out of the way for the counters.

They are going through the ballot papers at the moment. I have been

told these seats are too close to call. Newport East, Labour have held

since 2005. Jessica Morden has been the MP there. The Conservative

candidate will be hoping to take that seat this evening. In Newport

West, Paul Flynn has held that seat since 1987. At the last election,

which had a majority of 3500. Angela Jones Evans is keen to take that

seat from him. It has also been a Conservative target seat. Theresa

May visited the constituency within a week of announcing the election,

but it is too close to call at the moment. We will let you know at

3.30-4 a.m.. Any news in the meantime, you will be first to know.

In Sunderland, they would make use of those bikes! Less talk to Labour

candidate Albert Owen. Do you think you are heading back to Westminster?

It has been a positive campaign and early indications are that it has

been a positive result for Labour, but it is too early to tell. I am

hoping I can be returned, because we have engaged with young people. We

have talked about the issues and Mrs May has, in the words of Gary

Lineker, scored an own goal. Throughout the campaign, lots of MPs

were hesitant about Jeremy Corbyn and about backing him. If this exit

poll turns out to be right, you will be congratulating him. We have all

worked as a team. This has been a team effort. Wales has been

different to England in the polls in many ways. Jeremy has won an

excellent campaign and Theresa May hasn't. If you do go back to

Westminster, how do you think Brexit talks will go and who will be

leading them? Let's be honest about this. It was Theresa May who called

this election and only talks about Brexit, but it is a general election

and people's issues have been raised here and the public have talked

about other issues as well. Brexit will be important and there might be

a coalition of ideas with Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and

others coming together for the good of the country. But this general

election was not for the good of the country. And on the doorstep, was it

all about the exit, or was it about bread-and-butter issues? Bread and

butter issues. Brexit was important, but at the end of the day it was

about social care, the NHS and all the issues people are concerned

about because it impacts on them. Thank you, Albert Owen in on this

morn. We are hearing that Plaid Cymru are not confident about

wonder. We will come back to that. Let's go to Wrexham now. How is it

looking for you in the north-east as the Conservative candidate? It is

looking very close. I have only recently arrived after a swift pint

down the pub. My team tell me it is looking close. Time will tell. But

you were pretty confident and it sounds as if this campaign may have

backfired for the Conservatives? I don't know. I have always been

confident that I have a chance. That is why I have worked so hard. There

are so much I want to do locally. But I have never said it would be

easy. At the beginning of this campaign, I said I thought it would

get so much closer and it would not be focused on single issues. And

that is exactly the campaign that has been fought. It has been an

interesting campaign. It has not just been focused on a single issue.

It would obviously be extremely disappointing for you as a party if

you end up with a smaller... Or fewer MPs. Of course that would be

disappointing. I hope that is not what happens. In 2015 when I stood

in this seat, I had not speculated on coalitions or anything else. I

walked into this building, a camera was shoved in my face and I was

asked my views on a coalition and that was the first time I said maybe

this or that will happen and I start to speculate. The next thing we

knew, there was a Conservative majority. So time will tell. As soon

as the results come in, we will know. I was wrong to speculative

for. We may end up with a Conservative majority again. -- I

was wrong to speculate before. Thank you, Andrew Atkinson. We have

another result in, Sunderland Central. Labour holding on.

This is a very similar one to the other Sunderland seat. Let's try and

extrapolate from that the relevance for us in Wales. I think we are

talking about a divide between the big metropolitan cities and

elsewhere. We are also talking about issues in the areas which Richard

Leave and those which voted Remain, again particularly pertinent in

Newport, Bridgend and possibly the Gower seats. We are not seeing any

uniformity service. We always said there would be a huge amount of

variation. Talking to politicians throughout this campaign, they were

all guessing whether you give vote would go, and it seems to have gone

in several directions. That's right. People had that feeling of being

neglected by other parties. For us in Wales, the north-east of England

is interesting because economically, they have had the same kind of

industrial transformation and industrial decline. They have been

trying to get new industries in. And implement is much higher in the

north-east of England and in Wales -- unemployment is much higher. We

have managed to create jobs here. But all the same, very similar

vulnerabilities and similar turnouts in terms of the Brexit vote. So it

is interesting to see where the Ukip vote is going. And it is very

relevant for us in Wales. Can we read across to Wales in terms of

these votes from the north-east? Well, we are in that sweet spot

before midnight where it is nervous. No one wants to spot any particular

trends. I think it will be a nervous night for a lot of candidates.

Andrew Atkinson is a poster boy for the Conservatives. Many speak of him

as the star of Wrexham. He had to go to the pub for a pint. He must have

been nervous. As Laura says, it will be constituency by constituency. We

will have varying results and it will be difficult to spot the trend

is going on, which for the candidates means a nervous night.

And turnout will be crucial. We have only got a few so far, but

Sunderland Central had 62%. It is going to be up and down. We have

only had three results, but turnout in one of the Sunderland seat was

five points up. We don't know whether that was due to young people

voting. That will be significant. Three quarters of people over 65

will almost began to dig out and vote, whereas well under half of

younger people the last election bothered to go out. If that changes,

that will benefit Labour in certain areas. If it doesn't change, it will

benefit the Conservatives. The turnout factor will also probably

differ from sick to see it. Nets head back to the sofas and Fliss.

Vaughan Gething, in the north-east of England, the Conservative share

of the vote has been higher than the exit poll predicted. Does that give

you any cause for concern? Even if the exit poll is accurate, we need

to recognise that it will be difficult for us. Seven weeks ago,

we had an enormous mountain to climb. We will not know until we see

more results. But from where we started and what we have done in

Wales and the strength or otherwise of the Welsh Labour brand, it is

difficult to tell. But I don't think people have voted on just one issue.

There are lots of issues, whether it was police or social care or

devolved issues. Let's not pretend that in a general election, people

put aside their views on those devolved subjects. On that point,

all the parties blurred the lines between where power lies in the

devolved United Kingdom? I think that is an honest reflection that

people choose all sorts of issues when they choose to vote. I remember

as a local election candidate, having to deal with issues to do

with the Iraq war. Different issues are already in people's mines. Let's

not pretend they are not. One thing which changed the campaign was the

debate about policing anti-Conservative S' apparent lead

on the issue -- the Conservatives' apparent lead on the issue. Lilly

20,000 police officers less. That made a real difference to how people

felt about the Tories' record on that issue. But when she said that

to the police, crime figures were falling. But the police say this

will be a problem for the future. There are all those different issues

where the Tories started off with apparently huge strength and hasn't

ended up that way. At the start the campaign, if you had told the

Tories, you will only end up with a majority of 30 or 40, they would

said that is a poor result. Whatever happens, Theresa May will certainly

be diminished at the end of this campaign. There has been a real

element of arrogance and hubris from the Tories which has come crashing

down. I am not sure I said much of that. We are friendly at poll at the

moment. There is a lot of conjecture -- we are framing it around the exit

poll at the moment. But what is clear is that we are having

different swings in seats already, and this is early in the night.