Sergei Guriev - Russian economist HARDtalk

Hospital. Up next it is time for HARDtalk. Man man was one of

Russia's best and brightest. -- Sergei Guriev. Well connected to

the Russian political the lead. He was a strong voice for economic

liberalisation and a Russian patriot. But as so many pages, he

decided to go into exile. Why? And what does it tell us about the true

Sergei Guriev, a warm-up welcome to HARDtalk. Why did you decide to

leave the country you clearly love? I do love Russia and I've tried to

develop Russian education and the economic profession. Yet I felt

that I was facing the risk of losing in freedom in Russia. That

was connected to my own weakness in the Mikhail Khodorkovsky case. I

wrote a request to the then President and the Council of Human

Rights. I saw the investigation of Mikhail Khodorkovsky was going in

the direction whereby I would lose my freedom to travel. Mikhail

Khodorkovsky is in charge after to court processes. They may be a

third. In terms of view and the fruits you felt, what was actually

happening to you. -- the threats. In February, I got summoned to

interrogations and there were questions - I cannot tell you what

they were because I signed a non- disclosure agreement - but they

were related to that. The verdict for Mikhail Khodorkovsky and as an

economist I wrote to the evolution of the case and I said there was no

case. Any economist who reads the second verdict would agree with me.

Then, I had a couple of more interrogations. I submitted the

local document. I responded to questions of investigators and then

the investigation took a turn for the worse when, at the end of April,

they asked for another interrogation and in this case in

my office but instead of an interrogation they came with a

court warrant to take away five years of my e-mail. Five years!

That is actually a good question why it five years. Any idea?They

mentioned to one of my friends that that is because they believed that

since 2008 I had been involved in political activity. What ever that

means. That is not illegal in Russia - it may be unwise but it is

not illegal. That is a good question. But that is what they

said. They came with the search warrant for my office and they also

had one for my home or hinted at it. The grounds on which they took away

my e-mails and produced a search warrant for my office were

completely absorbed. Absorb -- absurd. The second thing which

worried me, electronic mail in a Russia is protected by constitution

as private correspondence so you need a court judge to sign this.

What I saw in that warrant was that the judge rubber-stamped what the

investigate or asked. That worried the again. If they needed something

else to be signed, probably the judge would sign it as well. Were

you not reassured by Vladimir Putin who is quoted as saying you had

nothing to fear. He said, if he has not made any transgression of the

law, nothing friends the 100%. exactly. This is the third thing

which worried me so much. That allows me to come to the

interrogation but instead they did this. The next meeting would be

something worse and something worse - what could be worse than a surge

of your home and house? Probably take you weigh your passport and

something else. Vladimir Putin was right, I had not transgress the law,

a done any I had not done anything wrong. All that happen with me

being a witness in the Khodorkovsky affair. I was just a witness and

yet something like that could happen. We should make clear that

at that time one of the reasons you were worried is that your wife and

children were in Paris. Your wife has always said you, actually, you

need to get out because she thought something like this would happen.

She was right? She is an economic that a cat and this - academic and

she's very smart. Maybe she was smarter than you about it.

optimism was probably wasn't less ground and then her realism or

pessimism. She turned out to be right. What also worried me was

that might cross-border movement were monitored by ace ensure...

Through a special regime. Other things were happening to me. It

turns out that other people's movements were monitored. She was

not in any way involved in it the Khodorkovsky affair. In any way.

That gets the thing related to other things we had done together

recently. Talking about Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He's a very rich man,

and oligarch, he is in jail. He used to run a oil company. You

commented on the second trial. The Moscow Times says that

investigators believed the authors of the report, of which you were

one, had a conflict of interest because they allege that Mikhail

Khodorkovsky paid money for it. What are your thoughts was made

that is a verifiable - verifiable fact that have never been paid by

Mikhail Khodorkovsky or his partners. He's going to get the

$50,000 for a school ten years ago. I was not sabbatical at Preston, I

was not paid by the economic school, I never saw a rule of this money. -

- Princeton. They never been paid by Mikhail Khodorkovsky. This

donation happened ten years ago. I wrote the report in 2011 when

Mikhail Khodorkovsky had already spent years in jail. It is so clear

that I am sure any economist who reads this case would agree with me.

Other incomers and lawyers who have read it have agreed with me.

Usain the law we used to persecute Mikhail Khodorkovsky - isn't that

simple? They could have been some case but the verdict had no proof

of guilt. What you say there is an economic analyst he said you sudden

departure is an attempt by seven oligarchs to undermine Putin. Not

direct revolution but for Putin to return for a third term. This

suspicion that you and meddling in politics. I have never been or

tried to effect Putin's ability to stand for presidential election. I

am not a great Cardinal of Russian politics. As I have been accused of

being. When I left Russia, he said a few things, some of these things

I have heard from investigators. Some of these things like the one

you mention I have not heard from investigators which makes me

believe he has some contexts with the investigators and therefore he

can read their minds and therefore I can expect what they would have

asked me in the next interrogation. These things do not sound nice. In

that sense, I am happy that I am in a different country because I do

not want to discuss questions whether I tried to undermined

Putin's electoral process. sounds like you're saying they're

trying to know you? A not seen the formal allegations. The formal

indictment. I have not seen any formal charges. But indeed, I have

seen that miss the mark of his talking the same language as the

investigators. One other thing that has come out, and I would like you

to address these - you gave it a small donation to a well-known man

and regarded by some people as a troublemaker. I am not sure on

which grounds you say he wants Mr Putin to end up in jail. This is

exactly why I mention my wife. We did donate some money to a donation

to fight corruption. It is important that political activist

like him, anti-corruption blockers can raise money publicly,

transparently and it is a small amount of money. I am not a rich

man. We do not give much money by we thought it was reasonable. I

continue to stand by that action. I think we need the right thing. I do

not share all of his views but I think it is important that all

people who fight corruption can and should be allowed to raise funds

through the public. That is the only political statement my wife

made in Russia. Border offices in Russia may be related this. I

received something about these also. He describes the United Party as a

party of crooks and thieves. He may be right or wrong but to be

associated with someone like that in Russia today by be difficult?

got a telephone call in May, already after I had left Russia,

before I announced I was not returning - I received a telephone

call from someone who is a friend and who had not been informed I had

left Russia but he was very well connected. He told me I could not

come back to Russia because there is a special operation against

people like myself and people who supported him publicly. That person

was probably thinking along similar lines. To the wider aspect.

Russia's role in the world and its ease with itself. Many years after

the Cold War. One recent survey, it showed a 30% of 18 - 35-year-olds

in Russia want to leave the country. If you have people who want to

leave, they do not see a great economic future. I would like

Russia to prosper and I'm sure that Russia will be prosperous and free

and a democratic country. What these people worry about is that

the transition to this European or democratic war three future will

not be easy. It will probably be turbulent. These people worry about

these things. But I'm sure that Russia will become a normal, free

and prosperous. That optimism does not seem to be shared by the former

deputy prime minister who has resigned. He said at the LSE in

London that he would have to get out of the paradigm of Military

Knight -- might. There are some pretty grim forecasts. I tend to

disagree with him on many things but with this one I agree.

Countries do not disappear. They may go bankrupt. Greece has gone

bankrupt. Greece still exists. I think Russia will lose time,

generations of talent, if it does not arrive at this stage where

ideas are more important then military might. Russia can move to

prosperity and freedom faster but eventually it will get there.

Usain this is a fork in the road - you can choose the military might

and not a great economy or increasing liberalisation. That is

not what Mr Putin has been saying. He says that they need more

discipline in the economy. If you study Mr Pidgeon's speeches for the

15 years he has been running Russia. -- Putin, you will find in the

statement you can find. He supported liberalisation, this it

learnt, West Indies, anti-Western views. You can fight any paradigm.

There is something at the deeds and not words, you see that Russia is

becoming more inward-looking, less free, less integrate - less global.

That sounds like Russia is not following the views expressed in

Foreign investment is not working. Cash outflow remained high. Last

year, $49 billion of Russian money came out of the country. None of

that is good for the economy. not just Russian money coming art

of the country. Unit capital flow. Back there is more Russian net

money coming back from Russians. The difference is $1 billion. That

is a huge amount. The reason for that is investors... These are not

investors who want the BBC or read the Financial Times he read

negative news about Russia but might they see that investment in

Russia is. Working out very well. The property rights are not as good

as they should have been. Competition is protected. They are

worried about the rules of the game. There is another indicator. The

stock market. If you look at how much Gazprom is worth and how much

the gas index is worth, Russia is behind other imaging market

economies by a factor of two or three. It is a huge vote of no

confidence by investors into Russian economic might. With the

walls of the game, the rules of law, it is important with investors.

Transparency puts Russia at 133 on a corruption index. It is doing

terribly. Those sort of thing this make it difficult on how the

Russian economy can modernise. Investors make economic decisions

involving millions of dollars. For them, making the decision on an

isolated case or the corruption index, that is not how it works.

Every investor thinks about investing in this part of Russia.

There, we have a good governor with good infrastructure. It has a

qualified labour force. It is more complicated than that. Of course

investors worry about these things. If you ask investors whether they

are happy about Russia, do look at the revealed preference in the

economics. The rate of best foot. More money is leaving Russia the

coming year to Russia. The price of Russian assets is no. Investors are

unhappy about that. Do you discuss with other people like the

President or Putin -- they are not stupid people... They want to see

the best for the Russia. That's it good question. I am sure the

government understands that. His Putin follows his election promises,

all of these problems that are recognised, acknowledged,... There

are plans. Russia will become number 50 and the reply closes 15th

and 20... Top 20 in terms of He recognises that. He makes no

promises. So far, investors are not sure if he promises will be

implemented. Why is that? You have accepted that they want the best

for Russia. As they see it.It may not be the best for Russia as you

see it. They understand the nature of the problem. They know this.

Until I left, I cannot feel any worry for risk of speaking up. As I

speak freely with you today, talking up in open meetings or

closed doors meetings about the issue, everyone is informed about

this in Russia. When you look at trade-offs, you think that

discipline is needed. Then using go back economic growth. Sometimes you

preferred discipline. It is linked to political stability and

proliferation of the regime. You choose that only economic growth

and innovation. -- over. White did not you stay and fight? You could

have stayed and fought this. You have an important was within Russia.

I stayed and fought. They thought it was a substantial risk for me. I

can give you another piece of conversation with the investigator.

That was not part of my disclosure agreement. Before the interrogation

was started, I said, would you are doing to me is illegal. You do come

and you brought prefers to be false evidence and you know that. He said,

you should not complain. Other people faced more difficult times

in Soviet times. The country is different. I should feel more

confident about my freedoms. And he hinted that I should still filled

about the suffering. -- think about the suffering. Do you see yourself

as what we called a dissident? These were much braver people. by

not as brave. I decided not to stay. In the 'New York Times', you said,

your plight is like having a rare disease. I supported Navalny. This

is an increased risk of contracting a disease in modern Russia. At that

point back, I thought, I can take the risk. When you think about

other people, if you do not want to contract the disease, do not touch

Navalny. Do not speak publicly. Once you have contracted the

disease, you think about good therapy to use. My therapy is to be

in a different country. Would you go back? When it this appears, I

will go back. It is a long time ahead. -- when it disappears.

Russia changes in unpredictable ways. The Soviet Union was forever.

But five years ago, it was sure. Everybody knew that the Soviet

Union was forever. But now it is not. You are an adviser to Navalny

now. He is an honest and brave man. He actually knows that he may end

up in jail but he bravely goes ahead. When he sits in the

courtroom, in a completely made, and asks me to help with advice, I