Sergei Guriev - Russian economist HARDtalk


Sergei Guriev - Russian economist

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Hospital. Up next it is time for HARDtalk. Man man was one of

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Russia's best and brightest. -- Sergei Guriev. Well connected to

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the Russian political the lead. He was a strong voice for economic

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liberalisation and a Russian patriot. But as so many pages, he

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decided to go into exile. Why? And what does it tell us about the true

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Sergei Guriev, a warm-up welcome to HARDtalk. Why did you decide to

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leave the country you clearly love? I do love Russia and I've tried to

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develop Russian education and the economic profession. Yet I felt

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that I was facing the risk of losing in freedom in Russia. That

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was connected to my own weakness in the Mikhail Khodorkovsky case. I

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wrote a request to the then President and the Council of Human

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Rights. I saw the investigation of Mikhail Khodorkovsky was going in

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the direction whereby I would lose my freedom to travel. Mikhail

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Khodorkovsky is in charge after to court processes. They may be a

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third. In terms of view and the fruits you felt, what was actually

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happening to you. -- the threats. In February, I got summoned to

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interrogations and there were questions - I cannot tell you what

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they were because I signed a non- disclosure agreement - but they

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were related to that. The verdict for Mikhail Khodorkovsky and as an

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economist I wrote to the evolution of the case and I said there was no

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case. Any economist who reads the second verdict would agree with me.

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Then, I had a couple of more interrogations. I submitted the

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local document. I responded to questions of investigators and then

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the investigation took a turn for the worse when, at the end of April,

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they asked for another interrogation and in this case in

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my office but instead of an interrogation they came with a

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court warrant to take away five years of my e-mail. Five years!

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That is actually a good question why it five years. Any idea?They

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mentioned to one of my friends that that is because they believed that

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since 2008 I had been involved in political activity. What ever that

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means. That is not illegal in Russia - it may be unwise but it is

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not illegal. That is a good question. But that is what they

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said. They came with the search warrant for my office and they also

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had one for my home or hinted at it. The grounds on which they took away

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my e-mails and produced a search warrant for my office were

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completely absorbed. Absorb -- absurd. The second thing which

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worried me, electronic mail in a Russia is protected by constitution

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as private correspondence so you need a court judge to sign this.

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What I saw in that warrant was that the judge rubber-stamped what the

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investigate or asked. That worried the again. If they needed something

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else to be signed, probably the judge would sign it as well. Were

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you not reassured by Vladimir Putin who is quoted as saying you had

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nothing to fear. He said, if he has not made any transgression of the

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law, nothing friends the 100%. exactly. This is the third thing

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which worried me so much. That allows me to come to the

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interrogation but instead they did this. The next meeting would be

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something worse and something worse - what could be worse than a surge

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of your home and house? Probably take you weigh your passport and

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something else. Vladimir Putin was right, I had not transgress the law,

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a done any I had not done anything wrong. All that happen with me

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being a witness in the Khodorkovsky affair. I was just a witness and

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yet something like that could happen. We should make clear that

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at that time one of the reasons you were worried is that your wife and

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children were in Paris. Your wife has always said you, actually, you

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need to get out because she thought something like this would happen.

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She was right? She is an economic that a cat and this - academic and

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she's very smart. Maybe she was smarter than you about it.

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optimism was probably wasn't less ground and then her realism or

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pessimism. She turned out to be right. What also worried me was

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that might cross-border movement were monitored by ace ensure...

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Through a special regime. Other things were happening to me. It

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turns out that other people's movements were monitored. She was

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not in any way involved in it the Khodorkovsky affair. In any way.

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That gets the thing related to other things we had done together

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recently. Talking about Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He's a very rich man,

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and oligarch, he is in jail. He used to run a oil company. You

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commented on the second trial. The Moscow Times says that

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investigators believed the authors of the report, of which you were

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one, had a conflict of interest because they allege that Mikhail

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Khodorkovsky paid money for it. What are your thoughts was made

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that is a verifiable - verifiable fact that have never been paid by

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky or his partners. He's going to get the

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$50,000 for a school ten years ago. I was not sabbatical at Preston, I

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was not paid by the economic school, I never saw a rule of this money. -

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- Princeton. They never been paid by Mikhail Khodorkovsky. This

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donation happened ten years ago. I wrote the report in 2011 when

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky had already spent years in jail. It is so clear

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that I am sure any economist who reads this case would agree with me.

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Other incomers and lawyers who have read it have agreed with me.

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Usain the law we used to persecute Mikhail Khodorkovsky - isn't that

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simple? They could have been some case but the verdict had no proof

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of guilt. What you say there is an economic analyst he said you sudden

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departure is an attempt by seven oligarchs to undermine Putin. Not

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direct revolution but for Putin to return for a third term. This

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suspicion that you and meddling in politics. I have never been or

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tried to effect Putin's ability to stand for presidential election. I

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am not a great Cardinal of Russian politics. As I have been accused of

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being. When I left Russia, he said a few things, some of these things

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I have heard from investigators. Some of these things like the one

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you mention I have not heard from investigators which makes me

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believe he has some contexts with the investigators and therefore he

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can read their minds and therefore I can expect what they would have

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asked me in the next interrogation. These things do not sound nice. In

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that sense, I am happy that I am in a different country because I do

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not want to discuss questions whether I tried to undermined

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Putin's electoral process. sounds like you're saying they're

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trying to know you? A not seen the formal allegations. The formal

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indictment. I have not seen any formal charges. But indeed, I have

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seen that miss the mark of his talking the same language as the

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investigators. One other thing that has come out, and I would like you

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to address these - you gave it a small donation to a well-known man

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and regarded by some people as a troublemaker. I am not sure on

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which grounds you say he wants Mr Putin to end up in jail. This is

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exactly why I mention my wife. We did donate some money to a donation

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to fight corruption. It is important that political activist

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like him, anti-corruption blockers can raise money publicly,

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transparently and it is a small amount of money. I am not a rich

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man. We do not give much money by we thought it was reasonable. I

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continue to stand by that action. I think we need the right thing. I do

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not share all of his views but I think it is important that all

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people who fight corruption can and should be allowed to raise funds

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through the public. That is the only political statement my wife

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made in Russia. Border offices in Russia may be related this. I

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received something about these also. He describes the United Party as a

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party of crooks and thieves. He may be right or wrong but to be

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associated with someone like that in Russia today by be difficult?

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got a telephone call in May, already after I had left Russia,

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before I announced I was not returning - I received a telephone

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call from someone who is a friend and who had not been informed I had

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left Russia but he was very well connected. He told me I could not

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come back to Russia because there is a special operation against

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people like myself and people who supported him publicly. That person

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was probably thinking along similar lines. To the wider aspect.

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Russia's role in the world and its ease with itself. Many years after

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the Cold War. One recent survey, it showed a 30% of 18 - 35-year-olds

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in Russia want to leave the country. If you have people who want to

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leave, they do not see a great economic future. I would like

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Russia to prosper and I'm sure that Russia will be prosperous and free

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and a democratic country. What these people worry about is that

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the transition to this European or democratic war three future will

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not be easy. It will probably be turbulent. These people worry about

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these things. But I'm sure that Russia will become a normal, free

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and prosperous. That optimism does not seem to be shared by the former

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deputy prime minister who has resigned. He said at the LSE in

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London that he would have to get out of the paradigm of Military

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Knight -- might. There are some pretty grim forecasts. I tend to

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disagree with him on many things but with this one I agree.

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Countries do not disappear. They may go bankrupt. Greece has gone

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bankrupt. Greece still exists. I think Russia will lose time,

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generations of talent, if it does not arrive at this stage where

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ideas are more important then military might. Russia can move to

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prosperity and freedom faster but eventually it will get there.

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Usain this is a fork in the road - you can choose the military might

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and not a great economy or increasing liberalisation. That is

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not what Mr Putin has been saying. He says that they need more

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discipline in the economy. If you study Mr Pidgeon's speeches for the

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15 years he has been running Russia. -- Putin, you will find in the

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statement you can find. He supported liberalisation, this it

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learnt, West Indies, anti-Western views. You can fight any paradigm.

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There is something at the deeds and not words, you see that Russia is

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becoming more inward-looking, less free, less integrate - less global.

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That sounds like Russia is not following the views expressed in

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Foreign investment is not working. Cash outflow remained high. Last

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year, $49 billion of Russian money came out of the country. None of

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that is good for the economy. not just Russian money coming art

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of the country. Unit capital flow. Back there is more Russian net

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money coming back from Russians. The difference is $1 billion. That

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is a huge amount. The reason for that is investors... These are not

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investors who want the BBC or read the Financial Times he read

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negative news about Russia but might they see that investment in

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Russia is. Working out very well. The property rights are not as good

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as they should have been. Competition is protected. They are

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worried about the rules of the game. There is another indicator. The

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stock market. If you look at how much Gazprom is worth and how much

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the gas index is worth, Russia is behind other imaging market

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economies by a factor of two or three. It is a huge vote of no

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confidence by investors into Russian economic might. With the

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walls of the game, the rules of law, it is important with investors.

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Transparency puts Russia at 133 on a corruption index. It is doing

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terribly. Those sort of thing this make it difficult on how the

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Russian economy can modernise. Investors make economic decisions

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involving millions of dollars. For them, making the decision on an

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isolated case or the corruption index, that is not how it works.

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Every investor thinks about investing in this part of Russia.

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There, we have a good governor with good infrastructure. It has a

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qualified labour force. It is more complicated than that. Of course

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investors worry about these things. If you ask investors whether they

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are happy about Russia, do look at the revealed preference in the

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economics. The rate of best foot. More money is leaving Russia the

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coming year to Russia. The price of Russian assets is no. Investors are

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unhappy about that. Do you discuss with other people like the

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President or Putin -- they are not stupid people... They want to see

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the best for the Russia. That's it good question. I am sure the

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government understands that. His Putin follows his election promises,

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all of these problems that are recognised, acknowledged,... There

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are plans. Russia will become number 50 and the reply closes 15th

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and 20... Top 20 in terms of He recognises that. He makes no

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promises. So far, investors are not sure if he promises will be

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implemented. Why is that? You have accepted that they want the best

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for Russia. As they see it.It may not be the best for Russia as you

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see it. They understand the nature of the problem. They know this.

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Until I left, I cannot feel any worry for risk of speaking up. As I

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speak freely with you today, talking up in open meetings or

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closed doors meetings about the issue, everyone is informed about

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this in Russia. When you look at trade-offs, you think that

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discipline is needed. Then using go back economic growth. Sometimes you

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preferred discipline. It is linked to political stability and

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proliferation of the regime. You choose that only economic growth

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and innovation. -- over. White did not you stay and fight? You could

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have stayed and fought this. You have an important was within Russia.

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I stayed and fought. They thought it was a substantial risk for me. I

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can give you another piece of conversation with the investigator.

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That was not part of my disclosure agreement. Before the interrogation

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was started, I said, would you are doing to me is illegal. You do come

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and you brought prefers to be false evidence and you know that. He said,

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you should not complain. Other people faced more difficult times

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in Soviet times. The country is different. I should feel more

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confident about my freedoms. And he hinted that I should still filled

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about the suffering. -- think about the suffering. Do you see yourself

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as what we called a dissident? These were much braver people. by

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not as brave. I decided not to stay. In the 'New York Times', you said,

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your plight is like having a rare disease. I supported Navalny. This

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is an increased risk of contracting a disease in modern Russia. At that

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point back, I thought, I can take the risk. When you think about

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other people, if you do not want to contract the disease, do not touch

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Navalny. Do not speak publicly. Once you have contracted the

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disease, you think about good therapy to use. My therapy is to be

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in a different country. Would you go back? When it this appears, I

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will go back. It is a long time ahead. -- when it disappears.

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Russia changes in unpredictable ways. The Soviet Union was forever.

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But five years ago, it was sure. Everybody knew that the Soviet

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Union was forever. But now it is not. You are an adviser to Navalny

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now. He is an honest and brave man. He actually knows that he may end

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up in jail but he bravely goes ahead. When he sits in the

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courtroom, in a completely made, and asks me to help with advice, I

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