Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Former Prime Minister of Ukraine HARDtalk

Welcome to HARDtalk.

I'm Stephen Sackur.

After three years of fighting, 10,000 dead and hundreds

of thousands displaced, is it time for Ukraine's leaders

to acknowledge they are in a war they cannot win?

Geopolitics, economics, and public sentiment don't seem

to be working in Kiev's favour.

My guest was Ukraine's prime minister until a year ago.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk described his own premiership as a kamikaze mission.

So how does his nation avoid self-destruction?

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, welcome to HARDtalk.

Thanks for having me, Stephen.

Seems Ukraine's crisis has lurched into a new level of urgency

in recent days with a blockade, which has been imposed by people

who are actually nominally supportive of Ukraine's government,

a blockade which is restricting all trade between the eastern

breakaway regions and the rest of the country.

Why is this happening?

The reason is very clear.

Under the Minsk deal Russians had to launch a full-fledged ceasefire

on the ground, to pull back its forces, and to pave the way

for the political solution.

What's really happening?

They are still constantly shelling Ukrainian, both

military and civilians.

The death toll is rising.

And people, they want to show their strong will to get Ukrainian

territory back on the one hand, and on the other hand to attract

attention to the Ukrainian case.

Right, well, you say people want to show their strong will.

What they're actually doing, it seems to me, is an act

of self-destruction because in putting this blockade

on what they call the blood trade between the Kiev government

and the breakaway regions, they're in effect killing

the Ukrainian economy.

So, let me split people from the politicians.

Some politicians try to misuse the situation

for their own political games.

That's true.

Yulia Tymoshenko, for example.

One of the most prominent politicians in your country,

a woman that you had dealings with for many, many years.

She supports those activists engaged in the blockade.

And, as I say, this blockade, if it continues, according

to your own prime minister, is going to create an emergency

in your country, which he says in the very near term will cost

300,000 jobs in your factories, your manufacturing plants,

because you won't have coal for your power stations,

you won't have steel for your factories.

So, the government passed a resolution the day before

yesterday which is to impose the restrictions on trade

to so-called self-proclaimed republics except humanitarian aid,

medicine, and so-called critical import, the stuff that goes

to Ukraine and outside Ukraine in order to extract the coal

and in order to supply iron ore to the Ukrainian companies.

When I was in the government this was practically

the similar decision.

So we never paid any penny to so-called self-proclaimed republics.

All legal entities were registered in Ukraine, they pay taxes

in Ukraine and we paid wages and salaries in Ukraine.

So, once again going back to the issue you just raised.

Some politicians want to misuse this and to play on the blood.

Yeah, what we have, and you're accepting it in your answer really,

are massive cracks emerging within that part of Ukraine

which is loyal to the Kiev government, you know?

We've got Tymoshenko, we've got people like Mikhail Saakashvili,

and many other prominent figures who are saying that

President Poroshenko has got this wrong and the blockade is the only

and the right thing to do.

So, the uneasy coalition of political forces that's backing

the Kiev government is breaking down.

Let me be very blunt.

You label them as prominent politicians.

I will say that we have a lot of lunatics in our politics too,

and they don't care about the country, they don't care

about the future, they don't care about the people.

They care about their polls.

You're calling Yulia Tymoshenko - right now, her political party

is around 20% in the polls, whereas your political party's at 2%

in the polls - you're calling her a lunatic, are you?

I am calling those who are against my country lunatics,

and not only lunatics, even worse.

I won't use these kind of words.

Going back to the polls, well, it's not 20%, it's definitely less.

But look at the populist movements in the European Union.

All populists try to gain ground because they talk to the people

what the people want to listen to.

They will never deliver on their promises.

Are you worried that populism and nationalism are taking Ukrainian

politics in a very dangerous direction?

Well, I am concerned that populists and demagogues,

they take over the political stage in the entire world, including

Ukraine.

They want to take the stage.

That raises a more global issue because Donald Trump

is in power in Washington.

You've just talked about populism.

Would you acknowledge that Donald Trump's presidency represents

a new and profound problem for you and the people

in the governing elite in Kiev today?

You know what is the difference, for example, between my country

and the United States?

The US still have very strong democratic institutions.

We need some time to build up very strong and durable

democratic institutions too.

Whether I'm concerned about the new US administration,

after the Munich conference which you and I participated in,

Vice President Pence, Rex Tillerson, General Mattis,

they were very vocal and they were very strong

in their support of Ukraine.

So, the way I see it they follow the policy

of the previous administration.

The only question we have, whether they speak for themselves

or they speak for President Trump.

That's a very, very big question.

And what we know from President Trump, despite his latest

State of the Union speech and when he committed

fully to Nato...

Well, it was perfect.

It was perfect.

Well, fine.

Well crafted.

One set of words from the President of the United States.

Different sets of words in the last year have included professed

admiration for Vladimir Putin, have included his willingness

to consider a deal over sanctions with Vladimir Putin,

have also considered his feeling that the people of Crimea appear

to want to be with Russia, not with Ukraine.

That is the President of the United States that you're

going to have to deal with.

He has changed his mind.

Look at his Twitter.

The last tweet he posted on Ukraine was that Crimea was illegally

annexed by Russia.

So he recognised that Crimea was illegally annexed by the Russian

Federation.

This is a good move.

The truth is you have no idea what's in Mr Trump's mind.

Do you have any kind of idea?

No, I do not.

But for you that uncertainty is deeply dangerous.

OK, I'm going to tell you something but I know who can have the idea,

or who can get the ear of the new US President.

This is your prime minister.

She delivered a perfect speech in Philadelphia at GOP retreat.

She did really great at that joint press conference

with the United States President.

And after this the US President confirmed his commitment to Nato

and to the free world.

The thing is you have to believe the glass is half full even if it

looks to most people like it's rapidly becoming more

than half empty.

You said recently, this was a message that you delivered

direct to the United States, Europe and Western powers.

You aren't allowed to lift sanctions, you said,

against Russia until Russia fully implements the Minsk II,

that is the peace agreement for the future of Ukraine,

and until Ukraine has taken over control of Luhansk,

Donetsk and Crimea.

Full-stop, period.

Well, you may say to the West you're not allowed to lift sanctions,

but frankly it's not in your gift, is it?

Look, what's happening, a few months ago I was really

concerned that Russia could win this fight in terms of lifting sanctions.

But as for today, what we see, no one is considering an option

to leave the sanctions.

Sanctions will be in place and this is a big win.

Well, the thing is you and Ukraine appear to indulge in wishful

thinking time and again.

In the last few days we've had President Poroshenko saying

in public it's time for our people to consider Nato membership.

He says he wants to put it to a popular referendum.

I don't know if you've been talking to members of Nato recently

but I certainly have.

I spoke to the Secretary General of Nato very recently.

The possibility, the prospect of Ukraine being invited

in to membership right now is simply fantasy.

And surely you know it.

Let me go back to the history.

Do you remember Bucharest meeting of Nato, Bucharest summit in 2008?

Ukraine was promised to sign a membership action plan.

So, in the end a number of Nato member countries refused

to support this idea.

What happened afterwards?

Russia invaded Georgia.

Then Russia illegally annexed Crimea and sent in troops

to Donetsk and Luhansk.

We paid a huge political price for this kind of decision.

Going back to our prospective Nato membership, we are very pragmatic

and realistic and I do understand that we cannot get it

in the short term.

But in the long term, in case if we modernise our military,

if we pass reforms that are needed for the Ukrainian military,

and we are on track with these, with the support of Brits,

Canadians and Americans, if we approximate Ukrainian military

up to Nato standards it's in your interests to have Ukraine

as a Nato member.

We are defending your borders and your security.

I come back to the phrase wishful thinking.

Vladimir Putin in effect has a veto on Ukraine's membership of Nato,

does he not?

Vladimir Putin in terms of Nato and Ukrainian sovereignty.

So you believe that Putin is stronger than the leaders

of the free world?

I believe in realism and pragmatism.

You say in Ukraine...

You're going to lose in this case.

..Putin has thousands of Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.

Right.

That's what you say.

You say that Russia is pulling the strings behind the so-called

secessionist self-governing regions in the east of your country.

That's what you say.

And do you then really think that Nato is going to embrace

into membership a country which is riven by that dispute

and where Moscow, according to you, has troops on its soil?

I see that Ukrainian military is the only military that deterred

Russian troops, and this is the fact.

I see that Ukrainian military is quite strong.

And I see that Ukrainian people managed to survive

and we still have the country and we still have the nation,

and I don't care what President Putin wants.

Well, you may not care what President Putin wants

but the fact is if you look at this conflict from the outside,

the man who has the clear strategy, the man who appears

to have the leverage and hold the cards right now is Vladimir

Putin.

If you build, if you say it like this, I would say I am very,

not just concerned, it sounds desperate,

it sounds that the free world is distracted.

It sounds that you don't have the policy, the policy

towards your countries, not Ukraine.

Well, look at what you call the free world.

Look at the European Union.

They have so many other concerns, frankly, from Brexit,

which you personally have described as scary.

That was a word you used recently.

There's also the question about the future of the Eurozone,

the United States has a new President, and we've discussed

the impact that he's already had on geopolitics.

There are so many reasons to believe that the West's strategy is not

clear, is not coherent, is not sustained in the way that

Russia's strategy right now appears to be.

This is the challenge for the West.

In case if this is the challenge this is an opportunity.

No doubt that we are living in another world, so let's

shape this world.

Let's make the new policy, the stronger one, which is to defend

liberties and democracy, which is to defend our every single

nation and our countries, which is to defend our values.

So let's be specific.

We've talked a lot about East Ukraine.

Let's just get into the detail a little bit.

I have seen it claimed from sources in Kiev that you believe

there are currently thousands of Russian troops on your soil.

Yes or no?

Absolutely.

You also seem to believe that arms are flowing across the border

from Russia into those secessionist areas and that the secessionists

in essence have created an army based on Russian know-how

and Russian materiel.

No doubt, not secessionists, not Russian proxies,

but Russian military already deployed in Crimea,

in Donetsk and Luhansk.

You know, all these guerrillas are not capable to build anything.

So why do you...

But they are capable to get the support from Russia.

Why do you continue to talk about the Minsk II agreement?

It's a couple of years old.

If this is what is happening today, clearly the Minsk II agreement isn't

worth the paper it's written on.

So why do you continue to insist that, ah yes,

the Minsk II agreement has to be the root and the source

of a settlement in our country?

Let me be very frank.

Minsk did a lot.

Practically, initially the Minsk deal was the ceasefire deal

and I pay tribute to the Chancellor and to the French President

in brokering the deal.

So we acted in good faith.

We as the state of Ukraine, we were whiter than white

in implementing the Minsk deal.

We passed very difficult decisions in the House.

The first reading of the Ukrainian constitution, an amnesty bill,

a bill on special status and the rest of the stuff.

So we wanted to show to the entire world that we are ready

for the political solution.

Well, with respect that is not strictly true, is it?

Point 11, as I understand it, of the Minsk II deal states that

Ukraine must change its constitution to assign the separatist territories

a special status.

Now, those constitutional changes require a two-thirds majority

in the Ukrainian parliament and there is not a possibility

on Earth that that is going to happen.

There is not any kind of precondition for this.

Because, look, even though there is no ceasefire on the ground,

look at the data.

Every single day they kill Ukrainians.

Every single day coffins with dead Ukrainian soldiers...

And every single day your side commits violations too.

Only in case if they start the shelling.

That's precisely what the separatists say about you.

Here we have a classic conflict.

All I'm saying is that in this conversation we've established that

right now there is no peace on the ground,

the Minsk II isn't worth the paper it's written on,

you have profound problems with the coherence, frankly,

of your Western supporters and allies.

We don't.

We don't.

It seems to me that everyone is on the same page.

Really?

Yes.

Well, let's not rehearse that argument again but we've discussed

the impact of Donald Trump, we've discussed what's

going on in Europe.

But let's now get to a point that seems to me very important.

In Ukraine there are significant players who are now saying

it is time to compromise.

Victor Pinchuk, one of your leading businessmen in Ukraine,

a man who is very close to the Ukrainian political

leadership, he wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal just

the other week which said, look, it's time to compromise

and we cannot afford to let the issue of Crimea get in the way

of a settlement, a deal which would save thousands

of Ukrainian lives.

We are on a different side of the aisle.

We cannot have any kind of compromise over territorial

integrity and sovereignty of my country.

The only solution which is on the table is that Russia

is to get out of Ukraine.

It was Russia who started the war, who waged the war

against an independent country, who tries to redraw the lines

after the Second World War, and who posed a threat to Ukraine,

to you, to Nato, and to everyone who stands by the values

of democracy and freedom.

So you, to use the language of Victor Pinchuk, are prepared

to sacrifice thousands of lives, are you, for this

principle, you say?

The principle of not acceding to any Russian demand,

not considering any painful compromise.

We are prepared to fight like hell for our country and we are prepared

to implement the Minsk deal the way it is written.

And you're prepared to look in the eye every father and mother

of a Ukrainian soldier who is gunned down in this war that will continue

as long as you say there will be no compromise?

They are heroes who are defending their land and our nation.

How will this end then?

Are you telling me that the only end is in a complete military victory

for the Ukrainian side, because frankly on the ground nobody

believes that's possible.

Once again I have to mention that there is a political solution.

And it's written in the Minsk deal.

So tell me the reason why Putin doesn't want to execute it.

And the reason is very simple.

He wants to have a new geopolitical structure of the world.

The guy wants to run the world, or at least part of the world.

He wants to restore a sphere of influences.

He wants to grab Ukraine.

This is the truth.

I said a little while ago that many people believe Putin holds the cards

and has the leverage right now.

One of the reasons people believe that is that the Ukrainian

government is fundamentally weakened by endemic corruption

and poor governance.

You have had now three years to try and sort this out.

You were the prime minister for a substantial chunk of that time

up until last year and all of you in the leadership have

signally failed to tackle this problem of corruption.

If I may, just to present you the facts, no more emotions.

So, the biggest corruption was in the energy sector of Ukraine.

You know that there were a number of corrupted deals between Ukrainian

state-owned enterprise Naftogaz, which is oil and gas company,

and Russian Gazprom.

As the prime minister I eliminated all these tarnished

and corrupted under-the-table deals.

The guy, Mr Firtash, who is under FBI investigation,

so he was eradicated and eliminted from the gas sector.

My government took over the assets from Ukrainian tycoons.

We increased taxes and in this case we hampered the position

of Ukrainian tycoons.

There is no more political representation of Ukrainian

oligarchs in Ukrainian house.

So we achieved a lot.

Did you really believe all that?

Yes, I do.

Because the Ukrainian people don't.

Number one, they got rid of you and at the time

of your resignation after the President said he had no

confidence in your government anymore, pretty much a year ago,

the Ukrainian people had you at 2% approval rating.

And many Ukrainians looked at the company you personally kept

and saw you as part of the problem, certainly not part of the solution.

There is another part of this, there is another truth,

I would say, or truth as it is.

A huge mudslinging campaign was launched against my government

by all these tycoons that I already mentioned.

It wasn't just mud, though, was it?

You had some allies, some of your closest friends

like Mr Martynenko, who is now under investigation for accepting a $30

million bribe through a Czech company when he was involved

with the Ukrainian nuclear industry.

You kept some pretty dodgy company didn't you?

And for the first time in the history of Ukrainian house

he voluntarily was stripped of the mandate of the member of house.

And there is ongoing investigation and no indictment in 15 months.

We don't know whether he is guilty or not.

He denies the charges.

But what I put to you is that on a whole host of different

examples you and people around you appeared to be far too close

to the oligarchs, as you call them, that still are the most prominent

players in Ukraine's business political elite.

For example, Mr Lutsenko, the head of the President's faction

in the parliament said this in April 2016 as you left.

He said: the problem with Mr Yatsenyuk was he couldn't

abandon the former practice of consulting the oligarchs before

making his decisions.

I have to refer to a mudslinging campaign.

Look, we are frenemies with my President so let me keep

silence on this particular issue.

But you just mentioned my low approval rating.

Could you imagine what's going to happen with your government

in case if your government is to pass four austerity packages?

Nobody's saying it's easy but the bottom line

is Transparency International today, not two years ago, but today have

Ukraine at 131, place 131 in the world's most corrupt nations.

Now, that's at the wrong end of the scale, not the right end.

You are, according to them, the worst, most corrupt nation

in all of Europe.

Where we succeeded we eliminated this massive corruption.

But if you ask me whether corruption exists in my country,

yes, it still exists and it exists not only in Ukraine.

It exists in other parts.

And the system and the network have clearly overwhelmed

you and overwhelmed the capacity of all other political leaders

in your country today to beat it.

For that particular reason we established a national

anti-corruption agency, National Anti-Corruption Bureau,

and the house passed the bill which was introduced

by my government, of so-called electronic declarations.

I wish your politicians will field the same kind of text disclosure...

Sorry, asset disclosure declarations as Ukrainian high-profile officials.

What are you worth, as you've had to declare your assets?

I started to declare my assets from the year 2001 and you can

easily check it online.

What are you worth?

Uh, more or less US$1 million.

I was the banker.

I was the lawyer.

I worked in the private sector for ten years.

Just a final thought.

Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary here in the UK, where you're

visiting at the moment, he's talked about what worries him,

a concept that he calls Ukraine fatigue.

He claims there are people in Europe who are kind of bored and tired

with talking about Ukraine and its crisis.

May be the same in the United States of America.

That is going to be a big problem for you, isn't it?

Well, that's normal.

People get tired of unresolved issues.

But we can't be tired in fighting for our principles and values.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, thank you for being on HARDtalk.

Thank you.