03/12/2012 Inside Out North West

Hell, I'll welcome to inside out. We appear at Piccadilly rail

station. A special programme about the future of transport in our

region. Tonight: we investigate the safety of commuter trains.

It will take an accident before something is done. There is no easy

access to their Exits. And we ask if we have fallen out of

love with cars. Cars have been the transport story

of the last half century. But it might not be the transport story of

If the experts are correct then more of us will leave our cars at

home and turn to the train as a way of getting to work in the future.

Sounds ideal, the perfect solution. But a survey has revealed that here

in the north-west we are the most fed up rail commuters in the

country. The investigation uncovered a disturbing issue,

asking, just how safe are some of our trains?

On this layout, rail travel is lots of fun. But in reality, this is the

way that some people travel to and from work here in the north-west.

Standing room only, jammed together, locking the aisles. A grim prospect.

It is pretty much every day. Conditions are crowded. The train

is often delayed also. That makes the situation worse.

We need more carriages. Standing is the norm, every day.

It is like sardines. If the train brakes suddenly, you go flying.

People faint because they're too hot.

Unlike buses, there is no legal limit on the number of people

allowed to stand on a train. These images were taken by a passenger on

the north and rail. It runs the biggest commuter train franchise in

the region. Every day, thousands use its services. Predictions are

correct, more will join them. But will leave him get on the train? --

will they get on the train? This was Rochdale station on a tour bus

16th. Paul White filmed the train. -- 16th October.

It was just something I could do to show how bad the conditions where.

It is so unsafe to have conditions like that. It will take an accident

before something is done. There's just no way out of the train. You

are squashed. There is no easy access to their exit.

Northern rail took over the franchise in 2004. They are the

largest train operator in the country. They cover 20% of all the

United Kingdom's railway stations. But they also run some old stock.

Part of the problem is that nobody predicted a huge uptake and that

really used in this region. 40% more people use trains since 2004.

Existing trains cannot cope and that is causing severe overcrowding

every day. Some commuters have had been off. They are using social

networks to reveal their experiences. Many put messages out

under the head in Northern fail. Tiffany is our clinical scientist

at a Manchester hospital. She is a regular commuter and uses her

Facebook page to comment Bente -- on her travels from Wigan to

Manchester. It is usually overcrowded. I do not look forward

to it at the end of a long day. Particularly if you cannot get a

seat. If the heating is on and it is overcrowded you can feel faint.

There have been several occasions during the summer months when the

train has been delayed because an ambulance has had to stop at a

station to take somebody from the train who has collapsed. It get a

particularly bad at Wigan. There are no seats available. That is

when the overcrowding begins and it is particularly bad at then,

through to Bolton. If I change train at Salford it is very

difficult to get on the next one along. There is not a lot of room.

There are multi- million pound plans to improve the service in the

region. That includes the electrification of routes between

Liverpool, Manchester, and Preston, and the construction of a new

bridge linking routes in Manchester. But the completion of these is many

years away. Most people we spoke to want action now.

Most of the train companies do not own their rolling-stock. That is

because of the way that the franchising system works. They have

a franchise for, say, 10 years. The rolling stock has to last at least

30, 40 years. So if they do not win the next franchise, what do they do

with the rolling stock? So they actually won by leasing companies.

There is no doubt we need new trains here in the region. But when

the last set of rolling stock was dished out the majority went to the

south-east. Can we be cynical and say that decisions were taken based

on the Olympics? That would have happened without

the Olympics. The South East has 90% of the trains, most of the rest

went to Scotland. We got some cast off carriages from elsewhere. But

apart from that we haven't had anything for ages. What has turned

up have been 30-year-old trains from the Birmingham area. We want

decent, fit for purpose trains. That will encourage people to use

the railways more. If the trains are not fit for purpose -- our

trains. We haven't brought in additional

carriages to try and satisfy demand. -- we have brought in. Of course we

do not like to see trains that are too busy but we're doing everything

we can to resolve that. We're working with the Department of

Transport as we approach the end of have a franchise to specify what

the next franchise might look like. One interviewee told us that

sometimes the trains are so crowded that people have collapsed and

ambulances have been called. We understand we have very busy

trains, particularly on peak commuter belts. We do everything we

can to guarantee our passenger experience is as comfortable as it

can be. But when we took a franchise it was envisaged that

there would be no growth. Yet there are 40% more passengers. We carry

90 million people, some trains are busy. We're trying to bring things

back to a more acceptable situation. Historically wide as the north-west

at a bad deal regards rolling stock compared with the south-east?

Most of our journeys are short. There are affordability concerns.

Overcrowding is not the only concern for commuters here in the

north-west. Although rail travel has a mostly excellent safety

record there is concern that one type of training is being used here

longer than its intended design life. -- one type of train.

The new version is something different...

Here is the train making its debut journey to Manchester in 1985. A

unique experiment welding a bus body and seating to a tree in

chassis. -- train. It was designed for rural roots.

The idea is that it will be cheap and replace old coaches Wellspring

operations back into profit... But the class now makes up one-

quarter of all modern rail's rolling stock. As you can see on

the journey that I took recently, they are used at peak commuter

times and often are overcrowded. They were never designed a intended

to be used on such busy routes. Why are so many in operation here

and in north-west? About 20% of our trains are, and

the operating major conurbations. They were awarded as part of the

contract and 2004. So that is the rolling stock that

you were handed over? Yes. 600 carriages, about a quarter

are the pacer trains. This is what happened to a pacer

train in Chester in 1999. It was struck head-on by a virgin surface.

It was operated by frost north- western and suffered substantially

more damage than the other train. Following the crash safety experts

raised serious doubts about the suitability of the train for a busy

routes. Fortunately the train was empty at the time of the crash but

an accident investigation into the crash worthiness of the trains

concluded that the under frame chassis connection was grossly

inadequate to withstand impact. A major design weakness.

Modifications were recommended to be carried out. This professor from

Bolton university is a leading expert in rail carriage crash

wordiness. He has serious concerns about what would happen to a pacer

if it crashed today for also stop the inside would displace quite a

lot. We saw this in an accident with

another vehicle. The displacement was about three metres. We should

allow only one metre. It is a seriously excessive figure. It

poses a danger to occupants. For what will happen is potentially

severe injuries or even fatalities. People responsible for public

safety on our railways are the Office of Rail Regulation. For the

last few years they have warned The orders of regulation revealed

that the trains do not fully meet current national standards for

collision protection. But their safety had been approved by other

rolling stock. If people are saying these trains

were Commission now they would not be allowed to roll out on the track,

I think that is essentially what we're saying, they are out there,

unacceptable, they would not pass modern standards. So we simply

should not take the risk of a fatal collision. Bear in mind that these

units are orphan very, very overcrowded. People are standing.

If you had a collision you would certainly have a very dramatic and

Severe consequence is for. A only a week ago I met with John

and described to him that all of our trains meet standards. They are

readily maintained and surfaced. Many of their original moving parts

have been replaced over the years. Are you not concerned that if they

were involved and collision that you have rolling stock which is

well past its sell-by date? You would be responsible for that.

We maintain the highest of standards. It is a difficult pass

to replace all these trains. As an operator we keep the trains running

as best as we can, maintaining them to the highest standards and to

meet the standards laid down by the Office of Rail Regulation.

In September there was a near mass between a train and a car at this

level crossing on the Manchester line. The train involved was not a

pacer but John is concerned that crowded pacer trains used the same

line at peak times. You can see just how fast the trains come

through here. The crossing is now closed and safety grounds for the

foreseeable future. John is now campaigning for the pacer trains to

be withdrawn from service by The priority is looking at unmanned

crossings. We need to look at vulnerable areas of track. Long

term, get rid of them altogether, there unsuitable for the 21st

century. We asked the Office of Rail

Regulation for their thoughts on This recent rail accident

investigation branch reveals that there have been 60 incidents of

mechanical failure and in one of those incidents that there you was

not detected by the Czechs put in place to do so. -- the Czechs put

in place. The Department of I am concerned because ago on those

trains as well and every time I go on them I feel that I am putting my

life at risk. I would like something to be done as quickly as

possible. It would be great to have proper vehicles which can be safer

and will give opportunity for it people to survive their travel.

you feel that people are taking their lives into their own hands?

They are certainly taking a bigger risk than the think and are being

asked to take a bigger risk than the ought to. For some commuters

one thing is for certain, for the foreseeable future it is still

going to be standing room only. Say on a risk? The irony is after at

2019 it is likely they will all have to be withdrawn from service

because access requirements for it disabilities, not because of safety.

The only chance you will get to see one will be in a model railway by

One reason that trains are overcrowded is because our love

affair with cars is dying. Research published today showed that the

North West has one of the biggest fall in car usage is. Richard

Westcott has been investigating the figures and asking what it means

for those who plan the transport Building roads is controversial.

Not building them can be controversial too. So how do

planners get it right? How do they decide where to spend our taxes -

on road or rail? The only way to ever be sure is to

beam ourselves into the future. And we all know how easy that is.

When these fans were watching their favourite series back in the '60s

we thought we knew how we would be travelling by 2012. There was talk

of having a little personal car that flew.

But sci-fi got it wrong, most of us get around now the same way we did

50 years ago - having your own jet pack remains a distant dream.

And ever since I can remember there has been an assumption the traffic

is just going to get worse and worse. After all, we all love our

cars don't we? Well, maybe not. In transport

circles there is a rumour going round that we are falling out of

love with four wheels. They have even given it a name -

Peak Car. So what is Peak Car? Well, just

look at UK traffic growth in the '60s and '70s when we couldn't get

enough cars, but by the '90s the trend was already slowing, and by

about 2002 average mileage per person stalled. What seems to be

happening in advanced countries is that traffic growth, and car use,

is not going ahead at the same rates that it used to.

Well, now Inside out has been given the first piece of in-depth

research into Peak Car in the UK and this report is full of

surprises. It shows that while some of us are driving more than ever,

others are dramatically changing the way we travel.

Take young men for example. Now when I was young, I couldn't

wait to get my hands on my dad's Mark IV Cortina with reversing

lights. Passing your test was seen as a rite of passage, but

apparently that is changing. Market trader Lee Vernon is 19, but

he won't be adding to the traffic around Mansfield Nottinghamshire

any time soon. He is selling up because he has just been quoted

�2,800 to insure his three-wheeler. I love it, it is a classic car and

it is rare. But the insurance is too much and I cannot afford it.

The research shows Lee is not alone. Young men are driving 2,000 miles a

year less than they were in 1995. Women though, young and old, are

actually driving more than they used to. So what is going on?

change in attitude is people giving up and people using phones and

Facebook, sitting around or using public transport, no one cares

about cars any more. Young men are not driving so much and that he met

in the report. There is a rise in education and insurance costs that

could be to blame. But if that trend carries on we will see a lot

less car traffic and a loss -- a lot less car ownership as well.

So what else has the report found? Well, this is the rainy 7.16am from

Warwick Parkway to Marylebone. Over the last 2 years the numbers using

this line have gone up by a staggering 40%.

And according to the report that is in line with a national trend.

Since the mid-'90s the distance the average person travels by rail has

soared by more than 60%, the last time the trains were this busy was

during the war. The key growth is business travel in the morning and

the other it is leisure travel at weekends. Train travel has become

much cheaper. It costs more to travel by it a car or and

congestion is increasing. Sitting with a laptop on the train.

And of course all those gadgets mean you can now work or play on

the move. You can even book your next train ticket.

While rail travel is up, especially for business users, company car

mileage is down - by 40% between 1995 and 2007, so that is before

any recession. Scrapping tax breaks made the

difference and it has had a big impact on traffic in London.

Despite more people moving to the capital, there are fewer cars. But

the report found in the countryside people seem to be driving as much

if not more than ever. Of course in big cities you have a lot more

options for getting around. Fairfax Hall runs a London company

making specialist gin and vodka and thinks he has distilled the perfect

formula for company travel. Whenever they need a car or van

they book it from a car club and pick it up from a designated

parking space 15 minutes later. Like other small start-up

businesses beat will not have a lot of money so we invested everything

ourselves. -- we did not have a lot of money. It is relatively low cost

to do things this way. It is also flexible and you can drive at 15

minutes' notice. So here is a question, what does

all this research mean for the future of cars and the car

industry? After all, we have had a bit of a boom recently.

The UK is on course to produce more cars than at any time since 1972.

But that is not because we are all buying ourselves a new motor. 80%

are being exported - these Minis are heading to Asia and South

America. Last month in London at the RAC's

Future Car Challenge another famous sci-fi face was in no doubt what

the future holds. It is that huge challenge for the car industry at

the moment. The car is not coming to an end, it is too useful, but we

need to rethink how we used cars. Electric cars are part of that, an

electric cart in a city that you do not own makes much more sense.

And it is not just the car industry that will be looking at this

research. The Department for Transport is planning a major road

building programme based on their model that traffic will increase by

a 44% increase over the next two decades or so. But what if they

have got it wrong? After all since 1989, successive

governments have overestimated traffic growth. This is the range

of predictions. The red line is what actually happened. Forecasting

always has a risk of being wrong. But it takes a rich set of data and

insurers that that data is a rigorously analysed. There is a lot

of useful things in this research but I am not convinced -- I am not

convinced it is the end all the car. The government points out the UK

population is predicted to grow by another 10 million in the next 25

years. And the RAC Foundation who helped fund the report says that

means we are still going to need more roads. This is not the end of

the car. A lot of the population do not have access to public transport

in the same way. Almost half a century ago when Star

Trek started this is what we thought travel in the 23rd century

might look like - and it is pure '60s.

It just shows how difficult it is to predict the future. But the

danger is assuming it will look like an enlarged version of the

present. More car traffic has been the transport story of the past 50

years, it may not be the story of That is all from Piccadilly station

if you missed anything you can see us on the iPlayer. I am back next