03/12/2012 Inside Out South

Welcome to Inside Out. Here is what is coming up tonight. As prices of

ponies plummet, we will find out about plans to ensure their future.

They really don't like him, I'm afraid. He might not be a colt by

the end of next week. Richard West colt looks to the future of a

different sort of horse power as a new report suggests we are falling

out of love with a car -- the car. Statistically older drivers may be

safer, but how do you know if you My son, Neil, was a lovely young

man. Very conscientious, very close to his family, and his brothers. He

had so many plans and hopes for the future. March last year and 28

year-old Neil Colquhoun was with colleagues celebrating his first

few weeks of a new job. One of the girls, she wanted to go back to the

car and my son being the gentleman that he was, I like to think of him

as a gentleman, if escorted her back to her car. He was going to go

back to where the others were and thought better of it so he Text his

flatmate and said, put the Pizza on I am coming home now. But Neil was

never to make it home. His route back took him along the A30 dual-

carriageway. During the journey, Neil safely over took a BMW, all of

a sudden he was confronted by a car travelling the wrong way down the

carriage way. The two-car smash together in a head-on collision.

There was banging on my bedroom door and I were cut, it was my son

saying there is a policeman downstairs to speak with you. He

said, I'm afraid there has been an accident. If it is pretty much head

on. Neil's vehicle span around and collided with their car he was

overtaking as well and then they hit head-on. His vehicle taught --

caught fire and many witnesses did their best in an attempt to get

Neil out of the vehicle. It would have been a traumatic

scene to come across. There were flames, smoke. The driver of the

other vehicle was 89 year-old Dr Turner Wadell. Badly injured, he

and his wife were pulled away from their vehicle, but Neil remained

trapped in his car. The car caught alight. There was nothing left with

to identify my son. All that they could offer me was his burned

mobile phone which was just melted plastic. You laugh and you joke,

but it is hard, you are just breaking up. Of the tragic part of

this crash was that it could have been completely avoided at Dr

Turner Wadell was not fit to drive. On the day of the collision, we

found that he had no sight in one eye and below the legal limit in

the other. Therefore he could hardly see where he was going when

he was driving. Dr Turner Wadell received A9 month suspended

sentence after admitting causing death by careless driving. The

judge us family members of elderly drivers to think very carefully

whether their relatives should still be on the road. Dr Turner

Wadell's Serna tried to stop his father from driving, but he could

not convince him. A feeling of guilt that we could have done

something, but in hindsight we know we couldn't. We gave advice, I gave

advice and he listened, but he would not take it in. I even took

him on the bus and said look, it is so easy. You can do your shopping.

But, you know, it was probably arrogance. As you get older we all

think we are perfect drivers and can keep going forever, but

obviously not. At the age of 70, anyone driving has to reapply for

their licence every three years. It is a cell certifying system and one

that allowed motorists like Dr Turner Wadell to continue to drive.

When Julia Langdon's 90 year-old father started having accidents she

felt like she had a responsibility to stop him from driving.

regarded any other car on the road as an invitation to overtake. He

completely disregarded speed limits and thought-police men were young

boys who did not know what they were doing. When you said to him,

what about that accident with a lamp-post on the bypass? He would

say that was ridiculous, they just had to put the light on. He had

also beaten up about four of the neighbours' cars in the block of

flats that he and my mother lived in. The family got very anxious and

thought we should stop him driving before he killed someone and

possibly A1 mother. Julia decided to take direct action. I contacted

the DVLA and they said that if the doctor said he can go one driving,

he can go on driving. I said, but he is dangerous. And they said I

was infringing his human rights. PACTS recently published a paper

looking into how to keep elderly people save on the road. One of

their recommendations was that GPs should play more of an integral

part in the system. If you think that they are not physically able

to drive a car, you should ask them whether they are still driving

because it is a key role that you have as a health professional to

help save the lives of others as well as the life in front of you.

It is very hard because it is requiring a doctor to think, should

I sentence this person to a life behind their front door unable to

get out? PACTS is recommending a national

driving assessment scheme. At the moment appraisals exist that differ

from county to county. 83 year-old Dennis Hilditch is worried about

his driving as he grows older. I am very concerned about it. It

seems almost impossible to imagine, but it will happen in due course.

How long have you been driving? Motorcycles from the time I was 17,

I am now 83 so you can do your maths. Do you worry about his

driving? Is he a good driver? he is. I don't look for the pedal

on my side. Today Dennis is taking a driver's assessment run by the

Royal Society For The Prevention Of Accidents. At the end of your road

we will turn to the right. I think the present scheme needs reviewing.

It relies on people self certifying, GP's looking at the repercussions

of taking Alison's of somebody. It is destructive to their one of the

-- quality of life. It is difficult but we need to have a more robust

system in place. Lots of parked vehicles, so what

are you looking for? Anything that moves. If absolutely. If being your

own critic is not good because you will always say you are perfectly

safe. If you need somebody else to be strong enough to say it is time

you stop. Members of your family won't let you know because they are

too kind to say you keep on driving. What can you see ahead? Stop lights

How was it? A I made some mistakes. Not as confident now. The moment of

truth then, how did he do? He is being hard on himself. There were a

few things I would need to point out, but overall if he gives the

impression that he is an experienced driver and more

importantly, he is conscious of the need to take account of other road

users in busy traffic. It is hoped that recommendations by PACTS for a

nationwide driving assessment scheme should help older people

like Dennis make the difficult decision of when to stop driving.

When is too old to drive? When you can no longer drive. When you are

no longer fit to drive is too old. Until then, you are still fit to

drive. Age does not come into it. It would be difficult to get used

to, but I hope we are wise enough to know the time, when it is time

to give up. The longer we discuss it, the more publicly we discuss it,

the further down the chain it will get. The problem is that the

automobile is your right to move around.

Patricia Colquhoun is hoping that people's right to move around does

not come at the cost of other people's lives. I don't hold the

driver who killed my son of responsible for my son's death. It

is the system because it is the system that allowed him to continue

driving. The sadness of the whole thing is

that my father, a well respected GP, should end his days taking a life.

He is deeply sorry for what happened, I know that. I must pass

our family's condolences to the Colquhoun family for what they have

been through. My son always came for dinner on a Sunday. The last

thing he said after dinner was, thanks mum, it was a lovely day

enough. See you next week. If I said, you take care, I love you.

And he called back, I love you too. It is a really difficult issue. Let

me know your thoughts. You know what, there is a rumour

that we are falling out of love with the car, but the question is,

Building roads is controversial. Not building them can be

controversial too. So how do planners get it right? How do they

decide where to spend our taxes - on road or rail?

The only way to ever be sure is to beam ourselves into the future. And

we all know how easy that is. When these fans were watching their

favourite series back in the '60s we thought we knew how we would be

travelling by 2012. There was talk of having a little personal car,

that flu. -- flew. But sci-fi got it wrong, most of us

get around now the same way we did 50 years ago - having your own jet

pack remains a distant dream. And ever since I can remember there

has been an assumption the traffic is just going to get worse and

worse. After all, we all love our cars don't we?

Well, maybe not. In transport circles there is a rumour going

round that we are falling out of love with four wheels.

They have even given it a name - Peak Car.

So what is Peak Car? Well, just look at UK traffic growth in the

'60s and '70s when we couldn't get enough cars, but by the '90s the

trend was already slowing, and by about 2002 average mileage per

person stalled. Is the love affair with the car Colin Byrne? What

seems to be happening in many advanced countries including even

America is that traffic growth, due to car use, simply is not going

ahead at the same rate that it used Well, now Inside out has been given

the first piece of in-depth research into Peak Car in the UK

and this report is full of surprises. It shows that while some

of us are driving more than ever, others are dramatically changing

the way we travel. Take young men for example.

Now when I was young, I couldn't wait to get my hands on my dad's

mark 4 Cortina with reversing lights. Passing your test was seen

as a rite of passage, but apparently that is changing.

Market trader Lee Vernon is 19, but he won't be adding to the traffic

around Mansfield Nottinghamshire any time soon. He is selling up

because he has just been quoted �2,800 to insure his three-wheeler.

I'll have it, it is a great looking car, it is a classic car, but the

insurance is too much and I can't afford it.

The research shows Lee is not alone. Young men are driving 2,000 miles a

year less than they were in 1995. Women though, young and old, are

actually driving more than they used to. So what is going on?

is changed in attitudes is that everybody gave up and got used to

using Facebook and mobile phones and sitting around or using public

transport, and I don't think anybody even cares about cars any

more. There are a lot of possible explanations for young men not

driving so much, rising insurance costs and so on, but the important

point is that this -- if this trend carries on BOC less car traffic and

less car ownership. -- we will see less car traffic.

So what else has the report found? Well, this is the rainy 7.16am from

Warwick Parkway to Marylebone. Over the last 2 years the numbers using

this line have gone up by a staggering 40%.

And according to the report that is in line with a national trend.

Since the mid-'90s the distance the average person travels by rail has

soared by more than 60%, the last time the trains were this busy was

during the war. The key growth we have seen is in two areas, business

travel in the morning with people getting to work and leisure travel,

especially at weekends, and actually train travel has become

much cheaper. It costs more to travel by car, so that value

equation builds, in favour of the railways. Gadgets mean that you

can't keep busy while you are on the move by you can even book your

ticket on the train. While business travel by rail is up,

company car mileage is down - by 40% between 1995 and 2007 - so that

is before any recession. Scrapping tax breaks made the

difference and it has had a big impact on traffic in London.

Despite more people moving to the capital, there are fewer cars. But

the report found in the countryside people seem to be driving as much

if not more than ever. Of course in big cities you have a lot more

options for getting around. Here is a question. What does this research

mean for the future of the UK car industry? After all, we have had a

boom recently. The UK is on course to produce more cars than at any

time since 1972, not because we are applying ourselves a new motor, 80%

of them are being exported - these manys are heading for the Asia and

South America. -- Minis. And it is not just the car industry

that will be looking at this research. The Department for

Transport is planning a major road building programme based on their

model that traffic will increase by a 44% increase over the next two

decades or so. But what if they have got it wrong?

After all since 1989, successive governments have overestimated

traffic growth. This is the range of predictions. The red line is

what actually happened. There is also a risk of forecasts being

significantly wrong, but we take a wide and which set of data, we

ensure that data is rigorously analysed. There are a lot of useful

things in this research for us to have a look at, so I am not yet

convinced that we have reached Peak Car.

The government points out the UK population is predicted to grow by

another 10 million in the next 25 years. And the RAC Foundation who

helped fund the report says that means we are still going to need

more roads. This is not the end of the car. The use of cars has been

declining but, for 70% of the population, people will need to use

cars unless they have other ways available and most people will not

have those things. Almost half a century ago when Star

Trek started this is what we thought travel in the 23rd century

might look like - and it is pure '60s. It all goes to show just how

hard it is to predict the future. The danger is, you assume that it

is going to be like a bigger version of what we have today. The

motor car has been the Tuzkoy story of the last 50 years, and I never

thought I would say this but it might not be the transport story of

the next 50 years. What does this button do again?! If you want to

see air traffic has changed where you live, log on to our website.

We're at their New Forest pony market. Prices are at rock bottom

and there is concern about one of the South's most iconic animals, so

what is their future likely to hold? The annual stallion

inspection in the New Forest. This is a hot competition to choose

which stallions will be allowed to mate with the mares. All of them

are owned by Commoners, people who live in the Forest with rights to

graze animals. Among them is Nicky Stevens whose pony is Branston

Pickle. First he and the other ponies are inspected to see if

they're good enough to breed from. He is a proper, rough and tough New

Forest pony. He was born on the Forest. He has lived there since he

was six months old, but we're looking at this confirmation. That

is how he fits the agreed criteria, and we give him a mark out of five,

if he is a top line, whether he has got good feet, and a nice head. He

has got to look like Kate Middleton, really, I suppose! I would like him

too great, but it is up to the judges. If it is good or bad,

fingers crossed. We are pleased that he has passed, so we're on to

the second stage, the vets. Once Pickle has been passed by the vet,

more rigorous judging is on its way. Especially as this year as fewer

stallions than ever before will be chosen to go on the Forest. That's

because there's a bit of crisis out there. It may look wild and free,

but in fact the herds of ponies are carefully managed. And this year,

because of rock-bottom prices, they want to dramatically reduce the

number of foals. The foal market has collapsed. You can sell a

steady riding pony. They make good riding ponies when they are five

years old, but the far managed to sell his false. One took the riding

schools have gone out of business and they are our biggest market.

With fewer stallions, there should be fewer foals, and hopefully

prices will recover. The man who has to make sure all this works is

the head Agister, Jonathan Gorelli, who's also a Commoner. This year,

we have only turned out at 10 stallions and only for a month.

That is the lowest number of a tower and out onto the forest. That

is simply because we're hoping to produce fewer falls by doing that,

and by selecting the better stallions, we will be producing a

nice fall, that the Commoner can take on and market and find a good

home for. Quality is important, but without quantity you lose diversity,

and that could have disastrous consequences for the 4,500 ponies

out on the Forest. If you narrow the gene pool too much you're

leaving yourself a problem. If there is some sort of genetic

problem with the pony, if you have got a diverse range of gene pool,

that problem might not manifest itself all only come out in a small

number of animals but if you now prodigy in Poole and two of their

animals do not have that defective gene, that can come out in the

progeny and it can cause immense problems to did read. We are

nowhere near that situation but it is something that you have to be

Back at the final stage of the inspection, will Pickle be one of

the chosen few to go out on the Forest? It'll be a few weeks before

the owners find out. The judges, the Verderers, will check their

bloodlines to check on the all- important diversity. So how will

that affect Pickle's chances? Unfortunately Pickle is by a

popular stallion. He has got quite a lot of colts already registered

by the same sire. But they have taken the bloodlines of the mayor,

as well, so we will just have to wait and see to decide what they

might want to do. If they don't like him, I'm afraid he might not

be a colt, by the end of next week! A month haspassed and I'm glad to

tell you Pickle still has the full package. But he's not going out on

the Forest this year. Instead he's been put on reserve, and is now on

his way to a temporary home away from the mares. He has been round

bout with the rest of the young stallions and he will be

represented next year as a three- year-old, and it is up to the verge

of us again, and this next year he should be turned out in the New

Forest as a sort of acting stallion. I never expected him to be so

highly thought of. But there is one stallion whose time is now. This is

Woodfidley Top Gun, a three year- old, who was chosen to go out this

year. He immediately rounds up the mares. He's got just one month to

enjoy himself. What do you think swung it for Rhyl? He is good

looks! He has got a good confirmation, he has got everything

we like in a stallion and that is really all there is to it. We want

to produce something that is going to live on a forest or be a

saleable item, so he takes all the boxes. Hopefully, he will cover as

many mayors as he can, so hopefully, he will do his business and get on

with it and we will see some nice falls next year. Pickle has arrived

at his new home and there's another colt belonging to the Head

Agister's family who's also being turned out. Both will stay here,

free of charge to the owner, till next year when they'll be inspected

again. By keeping a pool of stallions, the Verderers have a

choice of ponies that can be turned out when they need them, and,

hopefully, ensure a wider gene pool for the future. The New Forest

ponies are an icon, a fixture of the landscape, they have always

been here, and a mention back in the mists of time, the Domesday

Book etc, there have always been ponies in the forest and therefore

Commoners, and they are hopeful that in 60 years' time when I am

long gone there will still be New Forest ponies out there, hopefully

still strong and robust, and that we can keep it all going, but we

must be careful, and we must not let things slip, and I would like

to think the measures we have in place at the moment will keep it

going for future generations. the wild ponies that age would be

together, anyway, they would be on the edge of the herd, as a little

bachelor hair. They will have passed their test and grown up.

Some stunning pictures of those stallions. More stories from the

south next week. Until then, We find one couple from Hampshire