26/01/2012 Newsnight Scotland


26/01/2012

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On Newsnight Scotland tonight, a look back at a week which may prove

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historic and a look forward to what happens next. Will the Salmond plan

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for organising the referendum sweep all before it, or will the two

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government consultations meet in the middle and create a breakout of

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Good evening. If it's true that even the longest journey begins

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with a single step, then Scotland has begun to head for the distant

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horizon of autumn 2014. Brace yourself - we're in for a long trek.

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Two consultations are under way similtaneously. Two questions are

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jostling for attention. Two governments are claiming ownership.

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So far, we haven't even heard from the Scots themselves. We'll discuss

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what the people think in a minute. First, Derek Bateman looks at the

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It is the evolution of modern Scotland. We are at the very early

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stages of development. The consultation begins and we head

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into the first indicator of opinion, the local elections, and at the end

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of the consultation, there follows a statement on the legislative

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programme and finalisation of the bill. Early next year, it incubate

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in Holly route, then emerges in October and get a royal assent.

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There will be a White Paper on independence to give life to the

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debate, leading into the European elections. There's a hiatus. And in

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summer, the fledgling plan enters the critical 16 week gestation

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period. Then, with 28 days to go, the government... We vote in the

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autumn. Scotland are mergers fully grown into an independent nation. -

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- emerges. Or not. Doors opening. Here's another note for your diary.

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May 2016, when Scott the next goes to the polls. But there are few

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issues to be resolved before then. Notably the second question, the

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one that will not go away. Is it really the trump card of the unions

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politicians? Aren't you boxing yourself in by saying no to his

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second question and at the same time making this referendum legally

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binding? It doesn't give you any wriggle room if the Scots decide

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actually, we are going to say yes. There's no fall-back position for

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the unions either. The SNP won a clear mandate for a referendum on

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independence in the Scottish parliament last year. Very

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important that a referendum is able to offer both a legal result and

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one that is clear and decisive and that is why having a single

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question on the subject of independence is the right way

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forward and this is what the SNP proposed yesterday and I welcome

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that. But this is an argument that will happen. We have to engage in

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the debate and win the argument. I believe we can, but we shouldn't be

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looking for fall-back positions always to get around this, we

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should be engaging in the debate and winning it. Will you still be

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saying that if in a year's time, the opinion polls say 50% for yes

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and 50% for no? Yes because I think the case for Scots and Scotland

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within the UK is overwhelmingly powerful in terms of the economic

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advantages we as Got Game, the political advantages, that strength

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as part of us and common currency, the social ties that exist across

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the UK. All of those things are very powerful arguments for the UK

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and most Scots will choose that route, I think. The theme ran

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through today's Holyrood debate as members signed a claim of right in

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1989. The irony being that the SNP did not sign vent and many of those

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who did now say that Westminster North overrides the will of the

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people. Do we still believe in the fundamental right of the people,

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not just to make choices, but are determined the choices available to

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them? I doubt that the people of Scotland would have any

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reservations about that and I hope no member of this Parliament today

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has any reservations either. The Tories at that time were consistent.

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They opposed any change to the UK and that at least was a clear

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position, if in my view a wholly mistaken one. The other party which

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refused to support the claim of right or work within the

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constitution was the SNP. The very same party who are calling on us

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today to vote for a motion which is an extract from the 1989 Claim of

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Right. We had barely clues about key topics that First Minister's

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Questions. First Minister conceded sycophant live -- significant leak

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that the Bank of England would be the lender of last resort. Will

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that mean that John Swinney not only brings his Budget to this

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chamber, but he has to go to the Bank of England to ask permission

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on how much he can borrow, what his fiscal policies will be and how

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much he can spend? We know the First Minister told us this week he

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is an avowed and a file. Is he not taking it a bit too far? I heard

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her deputy leader on the radio this morning saying that if Scotland has

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a monetary union and the Bank of England is lender of last resort,

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Scotland would lose the ability to set interest rates. I have news for

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the Labour Party. Their politicians lost the ability to set interest

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rates on 6th May, 1997, when Gordon Brown declared the Bank of England

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independent. We got a glimpse of the chasm that exists between the

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sides. But at least we have kicked off the process that will lead to

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decision day 24 team. Tonight, Newsnight won this confession from

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Westminster. There have been some silly suggestions and questions

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going about lately, including one that that panders might be removed

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from Edinburgh Zoo because they are a gift to the UK government.

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think the pandas at Edinburgh Zoo have more pressing business than

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whether or not they are part of a constitutional debate. I hope they

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will be at Edinburgh Zoo for many years.

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I'm joined now by three of Scotland's senior political

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commentators. Here in Glasgow, Lorraine Davidson and Magnus

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Linklater, and in Edinburgh, Ian Macwhirter. Good evening to you all.

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The rain, now the dust has settled after the great events of yesterday,

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where are we going? The next obvious step will be the result of

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both the consultations, the Scottish governance and UK

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governments, and we will probably see surprisingly different results

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despite asking the same people about the same issue. It is now

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over to the people of Scotland to come back and say whether they

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support the question that everyone is going to be looking for. Do they

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support a third question on that ballot paper? Are you suggesting

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these consultations are not fair and independent minded works of

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politics? A suspect anyone who is part of civic Scotland and is in

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favour of the question is probably going to see the Scottish

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government consultation as a way of pushing back rather than the

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Westminster consultation. You were in the Great Hall yesterday, as

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many of us were. What did you make of Alex Salmond's used a VAT venue

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and where do you think that takes us? What does it tell us about

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where this will go? Very typical Alex Salmond gesture. Tremendous

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atmosphere, I have to say. Winds howling around outside, the world's

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media there and Alex Salmond on the platform. Once again, he is on the

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front foot, no question about it. He has set the agenda and the

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consultation will begin with a very, very strong wind behind him. But a

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whole lot of questions still waiting to be answered. Why do we

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have to wait until 20th November 13 before we get the answers to a lot

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of those questions -- 2013. It is a long time to wait, can't the SNP

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tell us now what they mean by The question that has been post, in

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its simplicity, wrong-footed many of its critics. Many of their

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critics thought it would be all pay, ambiguous, on a devious formulation.

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It was thought there would be another question on Devo Max

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proposed from the outset, so that Alex Salmond could win at both ends.

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By playing it straight, they commanded the news agenda for at

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least the first 24 hours, and that his bed difficult to argue with the

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question that has been proposed. Do you agree that Scotland should be

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an independent country? People are criticising it. Lord Forsyth has

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said that it is a red and Alastair Darling has also said it is right

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and will be unacceptable to the Electoral Commission. The criticism

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up here has been very muted and it will be difficult to pick that a

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part. If we're going to have a debate over the next few years

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about this, if we do not know precisely what the SNP mean by E

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independence until the SNP Publishing 24 exactly what they

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mean, -- 2014, what is the point of a debate between now and then?

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First of all, the Scotland Bill going through Westminster has to

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get on to the statutes. This proposes some quite substantial

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powers for the Scottish Parliament. This was the original reason they

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propose a referendum in the second half of the parliament. The

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consultation goes on until 20th November 13, then the period that

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the gold report proposed. The timetable was fairly clear and

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fairly reasonable. I cannot see anyone particularly objecting to

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that. The very question of what the SNP mean by independence, that is

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what has to be discussed and debated fully and the run-up to the

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election. If they had rushed ahead, and somewhere saying it is time to

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go ahead and have a referendum on independence is shortly after

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winning the overwhelming landslide majority in May. Had they gone for

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an early election, they would have been accused of bouncing Scotland

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and the decision. For this reason, they have not debated exactly what

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independent means. The other big argument is Devo Max. There was

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less detail than the SNP have even provided in the past. Why was that?

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It is there as apparently the most popular choice north and south of

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the border, but people know very little about it and its

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implications. The more you look at Devo Max, the more you realise that

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if it is on the ballot paper and people vote for it, we are voting

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for a federal, at best United Kingdom. It is a unilateral

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declaration of federalism, is it not? For it would have a greater

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impact south of the border as well as north. There would have to be a

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complete rewriting of the British constitution. No one has begun to

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think through the implications. is one of the implications not that

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this to be a proposal the Liberal Democrats would be in favour of?

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think you need to separate two issues. The Liberal Democrats have

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got their commission going on just now. They are a federalist party,

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as you point out. Many in the Labour Party say they are open to

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the idea of more powers. The question is, why are you not

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embracing this? The problem they have with this is that if they

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start campaigning for Devo Max today, they will have real

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difficulty trying to explain it. As a Unionist Party, trying to explain

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how this will run in the rest of the UK and all of the difficult

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decisions that need to be made alongside it. They are nowhere near

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being able to do that in time for a referendum. When people asked in

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opinion polls, what is your preferred option, they always they

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that they want more powers for the Scottish Parliament. What if they

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had called the Kalman Commission not that but instead, Devo Max.

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What do people mean when they say pollsters in the street that they

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want Devo Max or more powers? not quite his Vegas all that. The

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Liberal Democrats always proposed a federal reshaping of the United

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Kingdom constitution, and Magnus is right, it would have implications

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for England. England is increasingly in the mood for change

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in the relationships between the component parts of the United

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Kingdom. Federalism does have a long and dignified history and it

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is in operation in many parts of the world. Many would say that

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federalism is actually a more plausible or comprehensive, or more

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easily understood, formulation than the SNP's proposal of independence.

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There saying that for all services excluding defence and foreign

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affairs, these to be carried out in Scotland. I disagree completely. I

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do not think it is true to say that federalism is easier to understand.

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Independence is very easy to understand. Most people know

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roughly what it means. Federalism is something that we in this

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country are completely unfamiliar with. It has to be canvassed in

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England as well as Scotland. I want to move a little bit to the

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campaign, putting Devo Max aside, the Yes or No campaign. Who will

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fund those campaigns? We know who will fund the yes campaign but who

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will fund the no campaign? We hear that there are organisations ready

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and taking shape who will appear, but we do not know who will head

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them. Alastair Darling has been mentioned as one. He seems

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reluctant, doesn't he? The question is not just who will represent the

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pro UK argument, but what is the pro UK argument? What form of union

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are we talking about? Are we talking about the Carmen commission

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or Devo Max. We have to understand that the union is changing

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significantly. Is there, do you think, anything going on behind the

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scenes, for example, between the coalition and the Labour Party? It

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does not strike me that there is. think there are very informal talk

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particularly around Westminster in the tea rooms, those who are

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interested in Scotland and have time on their hands. Those kinds of

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informal chats that go on. There are people at Westminster who

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realised that this is a debate that they cannot be seen to read in.

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David Cameron has ruled himself out as well as Nick Clegg. He says that

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anything he heads up will only do well for his opponent's! Alastair

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Darling realises he is a Westminster politician. I am not

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sure they will be a figure who comes and rises to the rescue of

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the no campaigners and says I am the person to take on Alex Salmond.

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It will be a broad selection of people from across the parties,

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both from Westminster and from Scotland. How will that way, at Ian

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Macwhirter? A I think that will play badly. It would be a

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collegiate campaign with no particular leader for the no

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campaign. Given the various elements in their no camp are

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saying different things, that could lead to confusion. We have

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established that the Liberal Democrats support federalism and

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they do support federalism and Scotland. They are not saying that

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loudly at the bomb it. Labour say they want at stronger form of

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evolution and that the other extreme, you have Lord Forsyth, who

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says that this referendum is illegitimate, it is illegal, it

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should not be allowed to take place. He is urging people to take the

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matter to the Supreme Court. There is a recipe there for utter

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confusion. If you do not have a central focus for the campaign,

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that campaign runs into danger. Thank you all very much for coming

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in. A long trek to go now. Now a quick look at tomorrow's front

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pages. The Scotsman says pollsters, academics and others are divided

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over the fairness. The Herald looks at police workers being axed next

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year. A picture of the Chief Executive of the Royal Bank of

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