14/02/2013 Newsnight Scotland

revalue them until 2017. In the meantime no amount of creative

thinking is likely to stop shops from shutting. Tonight on Newsnight

Scotland, a new report forecasts a revolution in or a production which

has huge potential for Scottish companies but which could also

lawyer -- Lulworth North Sea oil revenues. What is the prognosis for

Rangers? Good evening. A new report by PWC says success for the oil or

fracking industry could provide a huge stimulus for growth and

considerably cheaper oil for consumers. It could provide massive

opportunities for the experienced oil and gas industry in Scotland.

It will produce a more greenhouse gases and it may lower revenues

from North Sea oil. The revolution is already happening, shale oil

production in the US is growing by a quarter every year and fracking

of gas is widespread. There are predictions that America could

become a net exporter of hydrocarbons. It is a revolution

which could affected just about every area of the economy as well

as the energy industry. Fracking is cheap and as production increases,

global oil prices could fall and people estimate between 25 and 40%.

Cheaper oil is good for consumers and should boost growth. Some

analysts think fracking in North America is giving a huge

competitive advantage and some American companies are even of

bringing home a factories from places like China. It is small

scale, not dominated by big oil so there are enormous business

opportunities. Countries which are already expired in the technology

of oil and gas could benefit if they get their act together. That

means Scotland. But if that all sounds too good to be true, there

are problems. There are environmental concerns, fracking it

cost an earthquake near Blackpool and there are worries about

contamination of water. Environmentalists also say the last

thing in the world needs is a new supply of hydrocarbons for energy

and why that is something the British government seems keen on.

Renewables could be sidelined, making Climate Change targets even

harder to achieve that. Cheaper oil it could be lower North Sea oil

revenues and put high-cost new projects on hold and that means

less tax revenue from oil. I enjoy now from Edinburgh by Alistair

Geddes who is director of the WC's oil and gas team. Just give us a

sense, there has been an enormous change in the industry over the

last few years President Obama that is right. The change has been

significant but we are seeing it more in the US and that is where

the evidence is coming from in terms of the potential for work

shale gas as we have seen him but now shale oil as well. In the US we

-- they have been producing this since 2004 and the production is

growing strongly. A lot of us are not familiar with this. The report

you have produced is about oil but a lot of the talk about fracking

has been about gas and it is bigger. That is right. The debate is very

alive about shale gas but a report looks at shale oil because we have

seen that Shell Gas, the presence is an indicator for shale oil and

as you said earlier, the shale oil is a relatively low cost and sauce,

a new source of energy and when we ran the projections in at the

models, what we see is with some reasonable assumptions about of the

growth of production in it shale oil and across the globe, then in a

couple of decades, you might see shale oil at representing 12% of

the global energies of live. think that could lead directly to

higher economic growth? Che oil means that more growth? That is

right. For a lot of economies, this would mean a more affordable fuel.

It has implications for fuel security. That means potentially a

reduction of price. You can see potentially by 2035, a reduction in

the price of a barrel of oil by as much as 40% and base against the

current estimates. By 2035. By a couple of decades we would get to

that point. That could be very significant. If you think about are

the growth of energy demand in the world, driven mostly by China and

India, as their economies grow, a new source could be really

important. There were some reports suggest ing that what you were

saying was lots of gas that could be extracted from Scotland and that

would make a bigger difference. That is not really the point. You

are saying that these global trends will have themselves because

economic growth in the UK and Scotland, it is not about what

actually happens to be underneath the ground here? The yes. It is

more at the macro-economic level. It looks at some regions are.

think that such -- that because Scotland has expertise in the

industry, that could be a big opportunity? Yes. As you pointed

out, the environmental concerns are real and there is a legitimate

debate that we need to have around addressing nose and I think there

is an opportunity for the fantastic industry that we have got in

Aberdeen who have built up a great experience in the meeting a very

demanding engineering and technical challenges to apply those skills in

the new ways and drive new technological discovery and

Investment to solve these are difficult issues that you have

pointed out. The other side of this is if you are right about cheaper

oil because of fracking, a bit Laura's North Sea oil revenues

partly because you get less tax, but also because some of these

projects which rely on a high price of oil will not go ahead. You are

absolutely right. In a report, when you think about the potential

impact in reducing the oil prize, there is a case of four oil

producers to reassess some of the projects they might be looking at,

where they have taken estimates based on a higher price. We could

get some economic growth, but the downside is if you are in

government, whether the British government or the Scottish

government, you might like to redo the calculations? I think

governments face a number of challenges than in their energy

policy, about how they want to balance better fuel for the bill

but -- affordability versus that there desire for a carbon reduction.

A man briefly, what would you say, a lot of environmentalists are

concerned, partly because of the well-known consequences, there have

been problems with contaminated water and earthquakes, but the more

we get into this, speaking about it, we could have fracking or a new

generation of gas power stations, it takes attention away, depending

on your taste, new renewable power generation of nuclear power. It

takes attention away from green energy. That is a valid point.

think the purpose of a report is to try and inform the debate really. I

think what you will see in there is that there is a real request for

government to think about the balance of those issues and it is

not to take away from the demands for green energy or greener energy.

It could be that governments might choose to take the windfall benefit

if you like from lower oral crisis and switch that into Investment. --

oil crisis. It is one year to the day since Rangers went into

administration. It is difficult to decide whether the current events

will leave a mark in history but this seems hard to believe that the

Rangers saga will fade from memory. Let us have a look at the ups and

downs of the year. It is very exciting. What is the main

priority? To win a match. It was a club that deep in trouble. The

saviour stepped forward but he failed to deliver. Today, HM are C

past the court to appoint ament -- and administrator. Families come

here together. The bottom line is that the big house must a open.

That is the bottom line. Thank you. This was the moment it started to

publicly unravelled for Rangers. Craig Whyte admitted that the game

was up and the administrators were called in. That was just the start

of the storm. These gates became in the garish backdrop as the dark

clouds gathered and questions were asked about how the club could

possibly be saved. And then, beside they really started. -- on the side

down. The administrators started to the cost cutting and that high

earners agreed to slash their wages. Then there was the fight for

control. A buyer was then found and the fight was not over.

Investigations, protests and Division Three followed. Those on

the inside at the time it tell different stories about how control

was lost. We did not see it coming. A lot of people asked how we did

not. If you had nothing to do with the finances, then you cannot see

where the club is going and what position it is in. I did ask if

administration was a prospect and I was told it was dependent on the

they get tax case and the bigger tax case was not decided upon at

the time when Rangers went into administration. I think from that

point of view, I felt a bit disappointed because it was a shock.

With the benefit of hindsight, I should have had a conversation like

this and said it is a real uphill struggle to turn the club around.

You will have to bear with us on this and their art have days ahead.

Everyone in needed to gather around and get through the dark days. I

should have said that. I went out with more bullish statements then I

should have and that was a mistake. Do you feel that you misled people?

The IT not feel that I misled people, I did not intend to mislead

people, but I regret not being more open and honest. The company died

at Ibrox remains and so does the club. A new company under Charles

Green has floated on the Stock Exchange and raised millions. Back

from the brink, just. We were facing liquidation. There was a

large tax case. They are now debt- free and hand as a success bolt

fund raising scheme. They have a reduced cost base and the first

team has been slimmed down and financially they love the very

secured compared to where they were and should be in a position to

trade that end of for promotion back to the SPL. Not everyone

believes that all in the Rangers garden is rosy. Most fans are

cautious and I think that an awful lot of scrutiny is required in

terms of exactly how much money, where is the money, in what holding

company does it resides? What relationship does that have to the

shares that bans have got and what future might reasonably be imagined

for Rangers when so many fantastic promises have been made by the

current leaders of the club. There are quite a lot of challenges ahead.

The idea of waltzing through the leagues and getting into the

Champions League feels a bit naive. The site remains above the door and

for fans of Rangers' one year on from administration, that'll do for

now. I am joined by Richard Wilson of

the Herald and Graham Spears. They have got a job on their hands

getting themselves back into the SPL that in terms of the business

story, do you think that is now finished? No. There is a police

investigation going on. If there are still lots of questions to be

answered about who did what. Charles Green will face more

questions over the next two years. Although the terrible rupture has

happened, the great cataclysm, my goodness, the business story will

go on and on. It will take Rangers Football Club four or five, six or

seven years to be whole again. This saga is not at the halfway line yet.

Do you agree? There are far too many unanswered questions for

anyone to be able to draw a line under this. We have the SPL

Commission, the title stripping potential of that. The liquidation

process will take three years. Scottish football will only be

getting over this when Rangers is getting over this. There are still

several years of this to be played out. Also, there is a football

point that Stuart Cosgrave made. A lot of Rangers fans are too

sensible to be too naive about this but the side here they come what's

back-up to the SPL and then back and the Champions' League and all

that sort of stuff, I mean if you look at Leeds United, and on almost

club, it is not that easy. It is slightly different here because

Rangers are far bigger than anybody else in Scottish football other

than Celtic. Leeds were a big club in England but there are lots of

big clubs. Rangers already have a bigger wage bill than anybody else

outside Celtic. Some people might argue they are not getting their

worth at the moment. Rangers are so big in Scottish football that there

is no reason why they shouldn't be able to get through the League's

first time of asking. I don't actually think that is a widespread

attitude among fans, that they are going to waltz back in. Most think

it will be a tough journey. I think Rangers should get back to the top

in three years. They should, because they will have a financial

advantage. Although, Charles Green is going to be very prudent and

lean in terms of his budgeting. Once they get back there, how

powerful will Rangers be in the SPL in their first couple of seasons? I

suspect they might not be a dominant force at all. It could be

up to six years in total. Where are they at the moment? I think I'm

right in saying that the Home gates they are getting are still enormous.

They are pulling in around 40,000 for a home football game. That will

continue. Next she will be a difficult season for Rangers. The

second division will feel a long way from the off top flight. That

will be a hard sell. Rangers fans will still turn out in numbers. I'm

right in thinking that only 9000 season-ticket holders from last

season didn't renew. The club will go after those holders. The gates

will continue. There is no reason to suspect they will not. That is

why Rangers will pushed through the leagues quickly. They also much

bigger than anybody else. Do you think that as well? All will people

get fed up? Rangers fans, it is no joy for them being in the Third

Division. I have been around Rangers' fans for 40 years, I'm

sorry to say, and I've been at Ibrox. What they want is to be the

top team in European football, to have nights at Juventus, to be

competing. You don't want small teams at home, followed by small

teams away. For those who are not part of this world, what keeps them

going in those numbers? Why do 40,000 people turn out? Loyalty,

affection for the club. Defiance. It is a whole range of issues.

there is a sense of duty. They seem this club which they have supported

0 -- supported their whole lives, almost go out of existence. They

have continued to turn up because they recognise that continuing to

turn up, they make the club stronger and make it come back

quicker. The club needs them at this time. There is a sense of

loyalty, commitment, duty. There is a sense of anger as well.

almost get the sense, particularly when you talk about the home gates

that they are getting, one of the lessons is it is as almost -- it is

almost as if it is more than football. It's as if it is

something bigger than a business. Rangers fans are fond of using the

phrase, more than a club. They are not so good that defining what that

means. Nonetheless, modern football fans all over Europe want to

aspires it baggage or culture around the club and Rangers and

Celtic fans are the same. Rangers fans say we are more than a club,

we are Racal's. They stand for certain values which may not be

different from other clubs but the sense of belonging is what we're

talking about. It is coming to the cause of a wounded animal. A lot of

Rangers fans think the club was wronged and an injustice was served.

I don't think so. I think the old Rangers self-destructed. The

custodians allowed the club to be destroyed. I want Rangers back to

the top as soon as possible. What will they be like when they get

back? Lot of Rangers fans would have been quick to choose Celtic

before -- -- to accuse Celtic supporters... Do you think there is

a danger that Rangers fans could, at the end of this, feel that they

are the ones who have been in conspiracy? There is an element of

hostility right now. There is a danger that they will continue to

feel that way when they get back to the top flight. A strong Rangers is

good for Scottish football but it must be a healthy Rangers. I can

understand why Rangers fans feel that way but I don't think a

boycott of away grounds will be good for Scottish football. The

Rangers fans need to get this hostility out of the system so when

they do come back, they can get back to going to football matches

and enjoying the process. Charles Green... Rangers fans will have a

very long list of conspirators against the club. I think they

should be in all that, the persecution complex, and