Browse content similar to 28/04/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: What kind of lives will we live in the | :00:00. | :00:08. | |
future and does the result of the independence referendum have much | :00:09. | :00:12. | |
bearing on them? In a special programme I'm joined by a panel of | :00:13. | :00:16. | |
experts on the way we live from earliest childhood to our last | :00:17. | :00:19. | |
years. Are we asking the right questions about childcare? Do we | :00:20. | :00:23. | |
really want a more equal society? And does anyone know the answers to | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
the problems posed by an ageing population? | :00:28. | :00:37. | |
Good evening. We hear a lot of what the | :00:38. | :00:42. | |
politicians promise in the referendum campaign. Tonight, we're | :00:43. | :00:44. | |
asking a panel of highly qualified and impartial experts to identify | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
and discuss some of the problems and possible solutions which Scottish | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
society will face in the coming years, whatever the constitutional | :00:51. | :00:58. | |
arrangements may be. Professor Susan Deacon wrote the report on early | :00:59. | :01:01. | |
years care for the Scottish Government. Professor Kirstein | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
Rummery researches childcare, elderly care, social care and gender | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
equality. Professor Phil Hanlon is an expert in public health. | :01:10. | :01:15. | |
Professor Pauline Banks is Director of the Institute of Older People's | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
Health and Wellbeing. David Watt is Executive Director of the Institute | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
of Directors, Scotland. Professor Jo Armstrong is an economist with the | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
Centre for Public Policy for Regions. And Dave Moxham is Deputy | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
General Secretary of the Scottish TUC. | :01:29. | :01:34. | |
Let's start with early years which has been a subject of much debate in | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
the referendum particularly about childcare costs, Susan Deacon. I'm | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
wondering whether you think that's the right debate to be having? Well, | :01:43. | :01:48. | |
I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I'm delight that had | :01:49. | :01:50. | |
we are talking about a really important issue that affects | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
children and families, but the way that we have arrived at this debate | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
and the way that we are conducting is it is odd. We don't need | :01:59. | :02:04. | |
constitutional change to improve childcare in this country and that's | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
just a fact. I am not alone in having a concern that we are having | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
this debate predicated on the notion that all these women, would, could | :02:14. | :02:18. | |
and should suddenly go back to work this they have more childcare | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
available. We're not talking about children. We're not talking about | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
choice. But most of all, my concern would be that we're still failing to | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
have a grounded and rounded conversation about the things that | :02:29. | :02:33. | |
make a difference to a child's early life experience and so much of that | :02:34. | :02:37. | |
goes on in the home and in the community. The objection, I suppose, | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
to the way the debate has been framed at the moment, that it is not | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
a debate about children, it is a debate about adults? Well, | :02:46. | :02:52. | |
absolutely and you know, yes, it is important. It is crucially important | :02:53. | :02:58. | |
that we talk about the economy in the same breath as we talk about | :02:59. | :03:02. | |
social issues. I don't think we do that nearly enough, but we have | :03:03. | :03:08. | |
extracted this one very narrow, you know, scenario that affects a narrow | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
group of women, or supposedly affects a certain number of women in | :03:13. | :03:15. | |
the population that we are going to flick a switch and it is all going | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
to change. As I say, we need to broaden this right out. Not for the | :03:22. | :03:26. | |
first time we are over simpifying a really important issue that affects | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
not just all of us as individuals, but has a huge impact on our | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
society. Jo Armstrong, the other thing that's going rather | :03:35. | :03:39. | |
undiscussed is whether there is any economic rational. Some of the | :03:40. | :03:46. | |
charities and all of rest of it who are campaigning on it. They are | :03:47. | :03:53. | |
saying it is great we are taking this serious. Some would say | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
providing childcare is great, but there is no economic reason for it | :03:59. | :04:07. | |
in I think you would be investing in early years for the life chances of | :04:08. | :04:11. | |
individuals and that would hopefully reduce inequalities and help develop | :04:12. | :04:16. | |
economic productivity from those individuals in later years, but it | :04:17. | :04:19. | |
is difficult to see the evidence that says a significant economic | :04:20. | :04:23. | |
benefits from intervention of childcare... What about increasing | :04:24. | :04:27. | |
childcare payments so that people go back to work? Is there an economic | :04:28. | :04:33. | |
case for that? Again, unless it is targeted, you are giving money to | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
people who would be paying for it in any case. It maybe unproductive | :04:38. | :04:44. | |
redistribution. Whenever politicians say we will pay for this because of | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
the economic benefits it would bring, you would caution a healthy | :04:49. | :04:54. | |
dose of scepticism? Yes, it is very difficult to see. Phil Hanlon, what | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
do you make of this? Do you think this debate has been framed in the | :04:59. | :05:03. | |
right way? I agree with Susan, it is too narrow. If you ask is there an | :05:04. | :05:10. | |
economic, social, health and benefit of giving children the best possible | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
start in life? The evidence is unequivocal. Are there many children | :05:16. | :05:21. | |
in Scotland who aren't having that? Yes, definitely. If you could deal | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
with that... The point is, paying more childcare so that people go | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
back to work is not necessarily the same issue as the one you are | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
talking about. It could be one small component and that's the frustration | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
many people in Scotland are feeling about the debate and about the | :05:40. | :05:41. | |
referendum is they recognise, people understand what it takes to raise a | :05:42. | :05:46. | |
child and the complexity of it all. If you said to a mother who has just | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
seen their child leave secondary school who has flourished in all | :05:52. | :05:55. | |
ways, what was the one thing that achieved it? The mother would think | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
it is a ridiculous question. Equally so, the idea that one intervention | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
will transform early years in Scotland is equally ridiculous, but | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
the question needs to be asked because we need to debate things | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
policy by policy, could that policy be part of a more comprehensive set | :06:15. | :06:19. | |
of interventions that make a real difference to the early years? Well, | :06:20. | :06:22. | |
that's a question worth asking and it depends it is done and what else | :06:23. | :06:31. | |
is put alongside it. If there were a economic rational behind it, you | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
would expect employers to be lobbying like mad for State to pay | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
more childcare? Employers want, I think they want to see the best | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
possible at long-term end of the education system whenever it starts. | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
So they want to see suitable potential employees coming out of | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
the school system whether at 16 or 18 or out of universities. They | :06:56. | :06:59. | |
would understand the sooner they start, the better, from that | :07:00. | :07:03. | |
economic point of view and secondly, they would be happy to see a number | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
of parents male or female being more available for the workforce through | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
better childcare being provided, but that's back to the debate, is it | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
about the child or is it about the employer or the employee and the | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
adult or is it about the child and if we are trying to improve the | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
child in the next generation then, you know, employers would want to | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
see that happen, but as Jo said, how long can they wait for that benefit | :07:30. | :07:34. | |
to come? In general terms, they would be in favour of it, but they | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
are not expecting it to have a massive economic benefit to them or | :07:40. | :07:45. | |
the economy tomorrow. Various parties are proposing certain | :07:46. | :07:56. | |
things. Our members would want better funded childcare. The range | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
of benefits is the right approach to this. There is a fundamental | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
difficulty that no one is really addressing as part of the referendum | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
debate which is nobody would blink at the thought of paying tax to | :08:09. | :08:15. | |
educate a five-year-old in school, but the political argument has not | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
been won as to why you might pay more tax in order to provide the | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
wrap around childcare that a five-year-old might need. No one has | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
grasped that nettle yet and for all of its positive noises, some of the | :08:30. | :08:38. | |
things the White Paper did was distract us from that argument. | :08:39. | :08:44. | |
Could I take issue with the separation of the economic and | :08:45. | :08:46. | |
social policy and the idea that it is about either working parents or | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
children? What the international evidence shows is if you invest in | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
early years t has several benefits. One, is it gets more women and lower | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
paid men into work and that is very good at tackling child poverty and | :09:00. | :09:06. | |
family poverty. Secondly... When you say when you invest in early karks | :09:07. | :09:13. | |
you mean -- early care, you mean giving more parents work? Partly | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
that, but also investing in an infrastructure that vow vids -- | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
provides high quality childcare. You are seeing it as an economic | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
investment just as you would in an investment rather than a cost and a | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
drain. We know investment in early years benefits children, extremely | :09:34. | :09:36. | |
and the outcomes in terms of both their employment prospects in the | :09:37. | :09:40. | |
fewer and their educational attainment in the future is much, | :09:41. | :09:44. | |
much better. When you say investment in early years here in that respect, | :09:45. | :09:49. | |
that it benefits the children. What do you mean? It is better to have | :09:50. | :09:53. | |
children in nurseries rather than at home with the families? The | :09:54. | :09:55. | |
international evidence shows that a mix of both is the best outcome. If | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
you have children who are just at home with parents their outcomes are | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
poor. If you have children who spend a lot of time in early years, | :10:05. | :10:12. | |
particularly at an early age, the outcomes are poorer, but it is very, | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
very complex. One of the main things that investment in childcare | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
achieves, it tackles family poverty because it gets parents into work | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
and that's the surest way of getting those parents out of poverty and it | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
is poverty that has the severely negative impact on children rather | :10:31. | :10:37. | |
than the actual lack of childcare. If you invest in the family being | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
able to work and you invest in childcare as an industry, you are | :10:43. | :10:44. | |
getting more people into work and you are putting money into poorer | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
families who are more likely to spend it in the local economy to | :10:49. | :10:55. | |
build up the infrastructure. But you would say case unproven? They may | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
spend it in the local community, but they would be spending their | :11:01. | :11:08. | |
benefits in the local community. OK. Pauline Banks, I'm curious as to | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
what you make of the way the debate has been framed? | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
It is a difficult one for me to come in at this stage because it is not | :11:18. | :11:22. | |
the area that I'm working in. For families to work together and there | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
are a lot of grandparents involved in childcare and the changes in the | :11:28. | :11:32. | |
pension age will make a difference to the availability of grandparents | :11:33. | :11:37. | |
to do that. Every different policy has a different impact on the age | :11:38. | :11:43. | |
group. Everyone talks about the phrase now, University of Mum and | :11:44. | :11:46. | |
dad for the problems that young people are having on the housing | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
market, but there is a labour force of grandma and grand dad? There is a | :11:53. | :12:02. | |
huge amount of child care out by grandparents. But surely the more | :12:03. | :12:09. | |
you argue an economic case for child care support, the more likely you | :12:10. | :12:17. | |
are to reduce early years? Finland, for example, everyone says the | :12:18. | :12:21. | |
education system there is marvellous but they do not send their children | :12:22. | :12:29. | |
to school for a long time? We must be very hurtful about this sort of | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
comparison. I remember in a former life being dispatched to the land. | :12:35. | :12:43. | |
-- dispatched to thin land. -- we must be very careful about this. It | :12:44. | :12:52. | |
is a different cultural context and a different political context. | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
Everything is different. They have a different set of problems. It has | :12:58. | :13:07. | |
become very fashionable to compare ourselves with the Nordic nations. | :13:08. | :13:10. | |
But this must be treated with caution. On this issue of | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
investment, if I could pick up on some points. The point about | :13:16. | :13:21. | |
recognising importance, in the broadest sense, about early years | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
intervention, the best thing I would say is that the family is hugely | :13:27. | :13:30. | |
important. That is not centrestage enough in our discussions. We have | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
touched on some issues regarding employment. Often when we talk about | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
the skills that we need in this country we talk about the things | :13:40. | :13:43. | |
that we do with or for youngsters from the age of 16 onwards. The | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
foundation stones are laid in the first few years of life. It is shown | :13:49. | :13:56. | |
in boundaries, communication, the general parameters. What I would | :13:57. | :14:07. | |
also say... Talking about the point about grandparents being involved in | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
the family, the thing that worries me is that grandparents are an | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
unpaid labour force, but that fundamental relationship can be one | :14:19. | :14:22. | |
of the most valuable relationships that there is. We must broaden the | :14:23. | :14:31. | |
discussion. We must not just think about professional intervention. We | :14:32. | :14:40. | |
must invest in our children. If you are correct in what you say about | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
the economics of this is the referendum in itself particularly | :14:46. | :14:57. | |
relevant? Is it a broader debate? Whatever mechanism we use, if we | :14:58. | :15:05. | |
want more childcare are, we must paper it through taxes. That debate | :15:06. | :15:12. | |
has not been had yet? At the moment, we are being told that full paper | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
itself. It is difficult to see how that would work. There are no | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
numbers to support that. Talking about early years intervention, the | :15:22. | :15:25. | |
statistics would argue that if you want to sit for children through the | :15:26. | :15:32. | |
early years and right the way through to university, you must | :15:33. | :15:37. | |
spend more at early years stage. I want to move on now. In working | :15:38. | :15:44. | |
life, I want to tackle head on a pertinent issue. Everyone is | :15:45. | :15:53. | |
competing with their visions of making Scotland a more rounded | :15:54. | :15:59. | |
society. I wonder if that is what people want. Some of the polling | :16:00. | :16:07. | |
evidence shows that we want to be better off. That seems to be | :16:08. | :16:15. | |
correct. From a health point of view, I think there is no doubt that | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
three things go together and that his health and well-being, equity | :16:20. | :16:28. | |
and sustainability. Any country that wants to have a healthy population | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
that is genuinely flourishing, an equal ovulation, socially and | :16:33. | :16:39. | |
economically. They must buy into the whole culture. -- and equal | :16:40. | :16:49. | |
population. The population must be able to have confidence in its | :16:50. | :16:53. | |
future. These are bigger issues which we are not discussing yet. We | :16:54. | :17:02. | |
have been disappointed that both sides of the date are only concerned | :17:03. | :17:07. | |
with persuading Scottish people that there are a side would put more | :17:08. | :17:12. | |
pounds into the economy. That is a very low level debate. This could be | :17:13. | :17:19. | |
a grand debate about the type of Scotland that we would all like to | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
live in. What would you say to someone who would say in reply to | :17:25. | :17:30. | |
that, is that I do not want able to become disadvantaged but I would | :17:31. | :17:33. | |
like us all to be better off. But if that means some people get even more | :17:34. | :17:38. | |
rich than they are ready, who would care about that? What I would say is | :17:39. | :17:46. | |
that all the evidence shows that once a country is wealthy, and | :17:47. | :17:50. | |
Scotland is now well be, becoming more prosperous and wealthier | :17:51. | :17:57. | |
without more equality and a change in culture, does not improve our | :17:58. | :18:03. | |
health and well-being. If we want to flourish, it simply having that | :18:04. | :18:06. | |
narrow vision of more money in your pocket will not cut the mustard. It | :18:07. | :18:13. | |
is that straightforward. Is there any economic evidence for that? The | :18:14. | :18:19. | |
evidence is once you get over a certain income per head, you do not | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
need any more. But we must grow and we must use and create more taxes. | :18:24. | :18:30. | |
As health and well-being a function of equality? I bow to my | :18:31. | :18:39. | |
colleague's that knowledge than me. I am merely a simple economist! | :18:40. | :18:43. | |
People want to be incentivised to work and do things. We all do. We | :18:44. | :18:52. | |
compete for everything. We compete for medical research funding, new | :18:53. | :18:58. | |
jobs, new business. That mechanism, unfortunately, brings with it the | :18:59. | :19:02. | |
idea that if you compete and win, you own more. That is the reality of | :19:03. | :19:15. | |
the world we live in. The paradox is if you do that and individuals, by | :19:16. | :19:19. | |
their nature, are inclined to do that, but we are also corporate. | :19:20. | :19:32. | |
Countries that have greater social inequalities have outcomes which are | :19:33. | :19:37. | |
generally pro-. -- group generally worse. This has to do with the | :19:38. | :19:45. | |
culture which encourages distribution and we must concentrate | :19:46. | :19:49. | |
on that. There is an appetite for fairness in Scotland. I remember | :19:50. | :19:55. | |
Alistair Darling talking about being asked at a conference what are women | :19:56. | :20:00. | |
going to vote for? What is in it for them? Is there gender equality? And | :20:01. | :20:06. | |
he said women will vote for it in the same way as men do stop a care | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
about economic prosperity, about the money in their pockets. Myself and | :20:10. | :20:18. | |
the other women in the audience went that is not what we mean at all. We | :20:19. | :20:23. | |
mean a fairer society for us and our families and communities. What is | :20:24. | :20:28. | |
the distinction you are making? It is about better access. It is about | :20:29. | :20:34. | |
access to opportunities, debtor education that is not the bicep. | :20:35. | :20:42. | |
Education policy, we do not need independence for a different | :20:43. | :20:48. | |
education policy. -- better education that is not divisive. You | :20:49. | :20:56. | |
can have a fairer society, but it does not necessarily have been more | :20:57. | :21:02. | |
equal? But there has to be a smaller gap. It is divisive when people see | :21:03. | :21:19. | |
that there are other people with lots more than them. Scotland would | :21:20. | :21:25. | |
probably have a vision for itself. When I have spoken to policymakers, | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
in terms of the more a Gallic Terry and fairer society, more women | :21:32. | :21:36. | |
involved in politics, for example, if Eric distributional of | :21:37. | :21:38. | |
resources, that would not necessarily mean equal. Can I be | :21:39. | :21:49. | |
boring for a moment? There is bruised more rhetoric about equality | :21:50. | :21:53. | |
unit a good thing. If we lead the spare room subsidy to one side, do | :21:54. | :22:06. | |
you find any policy is being proposed by anyone in this | :22:07. | :22:10. | |
referendum debate, even relevant to the issue of whether Scotland would | :22:11. | :22:17. | |
become a more equal society? I do, to the extent that what we see from | :22:18. | :22:22. | |
the Scottish Government is a recognition that the workplace | :22:23. | :22:24. | |
matters and the quality of work matters. To be fair, it has probably | :22:25. | :22:31. | |
not emanated from any government in the UK for about 30 years. | :22:32. | :22:37. | |
Translating that desire, if you like, to improve the quality of work | :22:38. | :22:43. | |
and workplace equality, we are involving unions and other workers | :22:44. | :22:47. | |
in ups killing and development of industry and that is an important | :22:48. | :22:54. | |
goal. -- ups killing. -- improving skills. I think it is absolutely | :22:55. | :23:01. | |
fair to recognise that there is a desire through workplace equality to | :23:02. | :23:09. | |
affect inequality in a way that we have not seen so far. But not actual | :23:10. | :23:20. | |
policies? Not actual policies. The other side is looking at the pro-UK | :23:21. | :23:27. | |
parties, do you see anything there? It has been encouraging to see, for | :23:28. | :23:34. | |
example, the Labour Party talking about action on living wages. I | :23:35. | :23:42. | |
think from a number of parties at a UK level, there has been reasonable | :23:43. | :23:45. | |
action on improving skills for workers. But they have not done as | :23:46. | :23:54. | |
much as I would like them to do. I believe it to you, David Watt, to | :23:55. | :23:59. | |
point out that rather like with childcare, we like talking about how | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
great it would be to have more equality but we do not want to talk | :24:06. | :24:10. | |
about how we would pay for it. The thing I despair about on both sides | :24:11. | :24:13. | |
of this debate is that there is no emphasis on wealth creation. People | :24:14. | :24:23. | |
don't care about how politicians spend their money, within reason. | :24:24. | :24:30. | |
But they would actually quite like Scotland to be a very prosperous | :24:31. | :24:33. | |
society, more prosperous than it is, and to some degree, that wealth will | :24:34. | :24:42. | |
be part of the decision on how we vote and how we live afterwards. But | :24:43. | :24:50. | |
how will we change the economy? One of the principles is to make it more | :24:51. | :24:53. | |
equal and that has not come out yet. There is no fundamental flash of | :24:54. | :24:58. | |
light on either side that will make any difference. Wealth creation, and | :24:59. | :25:06. | |
how we spend well, might be politically divisive, but we would | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
like to see more in issue to and innovative thinking from both sides. | :25:12. | :25:19. | |
-- we would like to see more initiative. We want to see wealth | :25:20. | :25:29. | |
earners using their wealth. We spoke earlier about the integration of | :25:30. | :25:34. | |
public spending and public services and the economy. We need a broader | :25:35. | :25:42. | |
vision over the next 20 years about how different economies operate in | :25:43. | :25:47. | |
Scotland. We need to know how the public sector and private sector can | :25:48. | :25:53. | |
integrate to a greater extent. If we want rater equality, it is striking | :25:54. | :25:58. | |
that one of the arguments for independence is that Scotland would | :25:59. | :26:02. | |
have complete control over the tax system. -- if we want greater | :26:03. | :26:13. | |
equality. I do not know any proposal from any party that does anything at | :26:14. | :26:18. | |
all to promote equality I changing the basic rate of tax. -- to promote | :26:19. | :26:27. | |
equality by changing. They seem to want to say they want all these | :26:28. | :26:31. | |
powders but will do nothing with them. We need to have a reality | :26:32. | :26:38. | |
check about all of this. I am as keen as the next person about how to | :26:39. | :26:45. | |
debate what is going on. But we are part of a global world and the | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
global economic system. We might dislike some of the character is | :26:49. | :26:51. | |
sticks but it is they are nonetheless. We also need to have a | :26:52. | :26:58. | |
broader discussion about the global influences that affect what is going | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
on in Scotland. I will illustrate this. One thing that annoys me most | :27:03. | :27:08. | |
is the wages that go on in sport, especially football. I do not know | :27:09. | :27:14. | |
how you break that cycle because it is a global market. We must get real | :27:15. | :27:23. | |
here. The leaders of domestic policy are ever more limited in what they | :27:24. | :27:31. | |
can actually do. Growing concern over many years that I have had is | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
how in Scotland, we have put Bart too much emphasis in terms of what | :27:38. | :27:43. | |
can be achieved by particular powers. -- we have put far too much | :27:44. | :27:58. | |
emphasis. I just think that we have over eight the pudding. | :27:59. | :28:07. | |
Pauline Banks, I am going to ask you about inequality and that involves | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
older people because again, I'm not aware of this having been debated in | :28:12. | :28:15. | |
the referendum campaign. All this talk about generational conflict. | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
Now, one argument is that actually what we are seeing is not | :28:20. | :28:25. | |
generational conflict, but the next generation, inequality being | :28:26. | :28:29. | |
increased because what matters amongst elderly people is asset | :28:30. | :28:34. | |
wealth and the divisions for young people is what you inherit will be | :28:35. | :28:38. | |
more important as generations go on, particularly given the way that | :28:39. | :28:43. | |
house prices are? That's true, but there is a lot of older people who | :28:44. | :28:48. | |
pass money down to their children and help them. There is a lot of | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
unemployment amongst the younger people. There is a lot of movement | :28:52. | :28:54. | |
of money between the generations. Older people helping younger people | :28:55. | :28:58. | |
get through their education and helping them buy flats and get | :28:59. | :29:03. | |
started in the housing market. If you are fortunate to come from a | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
family that has any money in the first place. That's the point. A | :29:10. | :29:15. | |
certain class of younger people will benefit and another class of younger | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
people won't and that promotes increased inequality? That's | :29:21. | :29:23. | |
possible. Then you have got to look at whether people, it depends on | :29:24. | :29:28. | |
your luck with your health when you are older whether you have to go | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
into care, you might have to sell your house to pay for it. There are | :29:34. | :29:41. | |
all sorts of complexities that can come into it. Would you just like to | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
see your members getting more money and it doesn't really matter or... | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
We would like to see our... I'm assuming you would. I mean if you | :29:52. | :29:59. | |
look over a period of time at pay demands put in by unions, you will | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
always find they have a bottom level and at least at the bottom. The work | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
that we do around promoting minimum wages and living wages has an | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
implicit knock on effect in terms of the middle to higher earners, the | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
company deals with the minimum wage increase by trimming wages somewhere | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
up the ladder. It is part and parcel of what we do is an attempt to | :30:21. | :30:27. | |
equalise pay or make it more equal. We talked about the social impact of | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
that. The economic importance of ensuring that more, if you like, | :30:32. | :30:36. | |
baseline jobs are better skilled and better paid and frankly, better | :30:37. | :30:42. | |
recognised within the workplace is absolutely fundamental and equality | :30:43. | :30:48. | |
matters. David, what I want you do to confront directly, what Phil | :30:49. | :30:54. | |
Hanlon said at the beginning of the conversation, would you challenge | :30:55. | :30:59. | |
this idea and argue that wealth creation and making everyone in | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
society is better off is a greater good if it produces more wealth than | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
perhaps limiting the amount of wealth you can produce making people | :31:09. | :31:14. | |
more equal? I don't think that, I must admit we have some severe | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
inequalities in certain probably FTSE companies. If you scratch the | :31:20. | :31:28. | |
surface in Scotland. The number of high earners is extremely small. | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
There is 12,000 people in Scotland on the 45 pence tax rate. Even if | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
they emigrate, we are not going to make a lot of machine out of them if | :31:39. | :31:43. | |
they all stay. The thing I would challenge as well is why are | :31:44. | :31:47. | |
Government taxing people that earn the minimum wage? The Government | :31:48. | :31:56. | |
taxes them. I also don't think employers, I am not sure that some | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
understand enough, but bigger employers understand that having a | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
healthy and happy and content workforce is economically productive | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
and it makes their business a success. I don't see them as massive | :32:10. | :32:15. | |
differences. Let's give Phil Hanlon the last say on this. If you have | :32:16. | :32:18. | |
two individuals and their incomes are both rising, and they are quite | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
happy with that. If I'm the person who has got less of an income, it is | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
not clear to me why I should be any healthier because the other person | :32:30. | :32:33. | |
is getting richer than I am? That logic is correct. I have no argument | :32:34. | :32:41. | |
with that, but if you look at a societal level. In country A, there | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
is competition, dog eat dog, massive distribution of wealth, opportunity | :32:48. | :32:50. | |
and no sense of cohesion. The same amount of money. This same amount of | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
money, but social cohesion, sense of wanting to solve the problems and | :32:56. | :33:02. | |
all in it together, across generational support, that equally | :33:03. | :33:06. | |
wealthy country has better health and social outcomes. All the | :33:07. | :33:10. | |
international data suggests that to be true. Now, what you do with that | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
insight isn't straightforward. You get back to the individual debates | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
about the workplace and about each part of the workforce wanting the | :33:20. | :33:24. | |
best for themselves and so on. It doesn't solve the problem, about if | :33:25. | :33:29. | |
you -- but if you want a country that's already wealthy to do better, | :33:30. | :33:32. | |
you need to take the whole population along with you and in | :33:33. | :33:36. | |
Scotland, in particular, if we talk about inequality, I don't think it | :33:37. | :33:39. | |
is about the highest paid and the bankers and so on, I think it is | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
what we do about a fifth of the population, who haven't receipt | :33:44. | :33:46. | |
recovered from the industrialisation when those high skilled, good jobs, | :33:47. | :33:53. | |
breadwinner jobs disappeared, they will never come back and there are | :33:54. | :33:58. | |
individuals who found their way out that, but there are many communities | :33:59. | :34:02. | |
who have yet to have a route out of that reaction to | :34:03. | :34:07. | |
de-industrialisation. A future Scotland could confront that. The | :34:08. | :34:11. | |
fact we don't ha solutions at the moment, doesn't mean that we | :34:12. | :34:14. | |
couldn't yet have them. I want to move on. Older people and people | :34:15. | :34:20. | |
becoming old. Pauline Banks, your specialist subject. This is a | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
complex area, I want to ask you something basic. If you are an | :34:26. | :34:28. | |
elderly person or someone approaching retirement age and you | :34:29. | :34:32. | |
see the arguments about the referendum campaign, it is not a | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
question of what side you are on, isn't it, it is almost so | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
complicated you don't know how to think about this stuff? I think | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
people know very well how to think about it. We're talking about people | :34:45. | :34:48. | |
approaching retirement age. You are talking about people from their 60s | :34:49. | :34:53. | |
up to 100s, you are talking two or three generations there. You can't | :34:54. | :34:58. | |
put everybody who is older in the one category. There are significant | :34:59. | :35:00. | |
things people are concerned about their pensions, whether their | :35:01. | :35:03. | |
pensions are going to change. We have been assured that they will not | :35:04. | :35:06. | |
change. There are issues about the pension age rising when we have | :35:07. | :35:13. | |
poorer health in Scotland. The White Paper suggested that they will put | :35:14. | :35:16. | |
the pension age up to 66, the same as England, but they will look at it | :35:17. | :35:23. | |
again before they put it up to 6 or 6 -- 67 or 68 on the basis what is | :35:24. | :35:27. | |
appropriate for Scotland. While we have more older people in Scotland | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
than England, they don't live as long of the it is a hugely complex | :35:33. | :35:36. | |
picture to be looking at. Do you reckon it all evens out? I can't | :35:37. | :35:41. | |
tell you. I'm not the economist. What do you make this David Watts? | :35:42. | :35:45. | |
Well, I think what's very interesting from an economic, from a | :35:46. | :35:49. | |
business prospective, there is a real worry about the future of - | :35:50. | :35:54. | |
somebody not far away from going off on a pension, I would be interested | :35:55. | :35:58. | |
to know who is going to pay for my pension, where is the next workforce | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
going to come? And that's a real challenge with the demographic. I'm | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
curious whether, there is this issue, isn't there, about | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
cross-border pensions and whether there might be European rules which | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
would mean that say if an English company which was, if you were | :36:16. | :36:20. | |
ogging in Scotland -- working in Scotland, it would have to be fully | :36:21. | :36:25. | |
funded. Is that an issue? It is an issue. There is the personal issue | :36:26. | :36:30. | |
and the structural issue. The private pension industry, the EU | :36:31. | :36:35. | |
rules have been put in place, you have to be residing in the country | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
where the majority of your business is done and hence the reason | :36:40. | :36:45. | |
Standard Life has taken recautionary -- precautionary steps they may have | :36:46. | :36:48. | |
to follow. They have done a risk assessment and assessed most of | :36:49. | :36:51. | |
their business is south of the border and they have to set up | :36:52. | :36:57. | |
company structures there which they may or may not have, depending on | :36:58. | :37:02. | |
vote and whether the EU will move from that. There is no question | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
whatsoever, so pick an industry that's most concerned because of the | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
regulatory nature and the costs, there is no question the financial | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
services industry is seriously concerned about independence and it | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
has the right to be concerned because of the two factors. What do | :37:19. | :37:28. | |
you think if you are an elderly person, you should be thinking about | :37:29. | :37:31. | |
when you think about the referendum? I would be less concerned about | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
pensions and very, very much concerned about care and long-term | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
care and nursing care and what was going to happen to my money and my | :37:40. | :37:46. | |
benefits and my assets. I think what is interesting is that we have in | :37:47. | :37:51. | |
Scotland a very complex system of welfare with certain areas like | :37:52. | :37:56. | |
benefits and welfare benefits and pensions decided in Westminster and | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
other areas like social care decided on a very local area and not just | :38:02. | :38:08. | |
Scotland, but local authorities controlling that system and what we | :38:09. | :38:13. | |
see is a lot of waste in the system and a lot of unfairness in the | :38:14. | :38:18. | |
system. We have 32 different local authorities in Scotland and that | :38:19. | :38:24. | |
means 2 #3 32 different systems of social care and entitlements to | :38:25. | :38:32. | |
care. Have you not put your finger on? What you have just said, I have | :38:33. | :38:37. | |
not heard addressed by either side? I find it shocking as somebody, well | :38:38. | :38:46. | |
you will know my from my accent I am the only non-Scot. I have a stake in | :38:47. | :38:53. | |
this and my family have a stake in this. Neither side are grasping the | :38:54. | :38:58. | |
nettle. We have a crisis in the funding and delivery of long-term | :38:59. | :39:01. | |
care for elderly people in the whole of the developed world. We need to | :39:02. | :39:05. | |
really do something quite serious about this. Now, we would have, to | :39:06. | :39:10. | |
link it back to the referendum, we could have a very interesting debate | :39:11. | :39:15. | |
about the linking of welfare benefits and social care and for | :39:16. | :39:20. | |
example, putting packages of Attendance Allowance and personal | :39:21. | :39:23. | |
independence payments that would enable people to plan for their | :39:24. | :39:27. | |
future and plan for their care. We could look at having a system of | :39:28. | :39:31. | |
long-term care insurance that's devolved to Scotland, such as | :39:32. | :39:35. | |
Germany has, but neither side is ragz these -- raising these options. | :39:36. | :39:41. | |
These are schemes which individuals would pay into the scheme if you are | :39:42. | :39:45. | |
lucky enough to own a house, your house wouldn't be taken away? | :39:46. | :39:50. | |
Exactly. Rather than it being an assess the based thing -- asset | :39:51. | :39:56. | |
based thing. It is a three-way relationship. Scotland could do | :39:57. | :39:59. | |
that. It could only do that with independence because it has got to | :40:00. | :40:04. | |
control the taxation system and the economic policy as well as the | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
social care system. It is interesting that, you know, I go | :40:08. | :40:11. | |
back to David's point saying the White Paper had some interesting | :40:12. | :40:14. | |
ideas about what it thought some of the problems were, but it didn't | :40:15. | :40:20. | |
really present us with any exciting or innovative or ground breaking | :40:21. | :40:26. | |
solutions. I wonder if we can take a step back? We are in danger of | :40:27. | :40:29. | |
saying some of the shortcomings shall we say of the political debate | :40:30. | :40:35. | |
begun and will end with the referendum debate. These are | :40:36. | :40:37. | |
shortcomings with our political debate and our politics in this | :40:38. | :40:43. | |
country. You know, we have not... Presumably across the UK? Well, yes | :40:44. | :40:49. | |
across the UK, but it manifests itself in a particular way in | :40:50. | :40:55. | |
Scotland. I am probably the ex-politician on the panel here. For | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
the 14 years since we had or 15 years since we had devolution, you | :41:01. | :41:06. | |
know, if you monitor this as some of us have been sad enough to do from a | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
distance and from within, if you monitor the debates that we have had | :41:11. | :41:14. | |
about health and education, say, forget about the constitutional | :41:15. | :41:16. | |
question and further powers for a minute. We have not had fundamental | :41:17. | :41:22. | |
searching discussions that cut across party lines about how we | :41:23. | :41:28. | |
create a sustainable flourishing NHS or how we tackle some of the issues | :41:29. | :41:33. | |
in our education system. I'm not going to fling your political past | :41:34. | :41:37. | |
at you too much! But Labour were as at least as | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
complicit as anyone else... I agree. In not having a debate about public | :41:44. | :41:46. | |
service reform in Scotland, even if you don't like the Blairites they | :41:47. | :41:56. | |
had in England? I agree with you. I have been on record for a number of | :41:57. | :42:03. | |
years in saying that. It is our wider political debate and the way | :42:04. | :42:09. | |
our parties organised and the way that they compete for votes that is | :42:10. | :42:17. | |
the fundamental problem. Unless and until we see some fundamental | :42:18. | :42:21. | |
changes in how we discuss these issues, and frankly the only way | :42:22. | :42:25. | |
forward I concede is having a lot more voices and I don't mean | :42:26. | :42:32. | |
so-called expert voices, but many more wider voices. They must be | :42:33. | :42:38. | |
prepared to enter into that space. I think we have a problem because we | :42:39. | :42:44. | |
are not as King the hard questions. -- we are not asking. The government | :42:45. | :42:53. | |
has engaged with the survey population in a far more | :42:54. | :43:01. | |
constructive way since devolution. -- has engaged with the population. | :43:02. | :43:10. | |
At that is not what delivers change. If I can just finished. If you gave | :43:11. | :43:14. | |
Scotland more powers to do that it would do it more effect of late and | :43:15. | :43:17. | |
much more in the interests of the country. We have broadened this out | :43:18. | :43:25. | |
in exactly the way that I wanted. I want to ask the question, all of | :43:26. | :43:28. | |
these issues that we have discussed, is the referendum debate relevant to | :43:29. | :43:35. | |
them and if it is relevant, does it address them? We have heard here | :43:36. | :43:43. | |
tonight that all sorts of issues, including public sector reform, are | :43:44. | :43:47. | |
not being talked about. It is not addressing them but it is relevant | :43:48. | :43:54. | |
to them. This debate has illustrated how we are all in this together. The | :43:55. | :43:58. | |
average Scottish person will have 19 years of chronic illness bit or if | :43:59. | :44:05. | |
he or she dies. That is something to cheer us all up. You will be fine. | :44:06. | :44:13. | |
But we need a public debate. We need a debate in society about how we | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
shorten that. Scotland performs badly against the rest of Europe in | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
life expectancy. Life expectancy will probably continue to rise. But | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
we must talk about how well we all are. That will depend on a number of | :44:28. | :44:34. | |
factors. The referendum debate is absolutely crucial and relevant to | :44:35. | :44:40. | |
all of this. But not necessarily what is being debated. Professor Jo | :44:41. | :44:46. | |
Armstrong, what do you make of all of this? It has started to force | :44:47. | :44:49. | |
people to think about ends differently. -- to think about | :44:50. | :45:02. | |
things differently. For me, the issue is not about policy ideas and | :45:03. | :45:07. | |
some of them are really good, but it is about where we are now and fire | :45:08. | :45:13. | |
we think we are going to get to. We cannot afford what we have at the | :45:14. | :45:16. | |
minute. But that must have factored into the debate. If we cannot tax | :45:17. | :45:21. | |
the super-rich and we do not have the capacity to grow the economy as | :45:22. | :45:26. | |
fast as we would like, then in order to deliver them, we must do things | :45:27. | :45:31. | |
differently and effectively we must cut services. The funding question | :45:32. | :45:37. | |
is essential. Or you could put taxes up there is no talk about that. Is | :45:38. | :45:49. | |
the referendum important when discussing these issues? It is under | :45:50. | :45:58. | |
camouflage about the other 90% of things that we must talk about to | :45:59. | :46:03. | |
get through to the population. The issues have not been debated | :46:04. | :46:16. | |
effectively so far, in my opinion. We must grab hold of the issues. | :46:17. | :46:22. | |
These discussions cannot end at the time the referendums have -- the | :46:23. | :46:31. | |
referendum happens. Irrespective of the result, people should not field | :46:32. | :46:41. | |
completely defeated. How would you sum this up? You're talking about an | :46:42. | :46:45. | |
SNP government, writing the white paper. I do not think the population | :46:46. | :46:53. | |
is ready for some of these debates. Talking about the care per older | :46:54. | :46:57. | |
people, we have to get down to the roots in society and think about | :46:58. | :47:01. | |
changing things. People like myself, we should be thinking about | :47:02. | :47:06. | |
how we are going to change things in later life. It is not up to other | :47:07. | :47:10. | |
people. Last word to the bosses as usual. Very briefly. The referendum | :47:11. | :47:22. | |
has not brought about enough debate on issues like social care and that | :47:23. | :47:28. | |
must change. Thank you all very much for your contributions. That is all | :47:29. | :47:32. | |
from me for tonight. I will be back tomorrow we think. Good evening. | :47:33. | :47:59. | |
With more sunshine it should be a warmer day than today. Northern | :48:00. | :48:04. | |
Scotland seeing more cloud so temperatures won't be as high. We | :48:05. | :48:08. | |
had 22 Celsius in Aviemore, across Southern Scotland with the sunnier | :48:09. | :48:11. | |
skies here, temperatures will be higher. Looking at around the | :48:12. | :48:15. | |
mid-teens across England and Wales. We could get one or two showers | :48:16. | :48:17. | |
across northern hills. | :48:18. | :48:20. |