28/04/2014 Newsnight Scotland


28/04/2014

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Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: What kind of lives will we live in the

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future and does the result of the independence referendum have much

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bearing on them? In a special programme I'm joined by a panel of

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experts on the way we live from earliest childhood to our last

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years. Are we asking the right questions about childcare? Do we

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really want a more equal society? And does anyone know the answers to

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the problems posed by an ageing population?

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Good evening. We hear a lot of what the

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politicians promise in the referendum campaign. Tonight, we're

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asking a panel of highly qualified and impartial experts to identify

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and discuss some of the problems and possible solutions which Scottish

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society will face in the coming years, whatever the constitutional

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arrangements may be. Professor Susan Deacon wrote the report on early

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years care for the Scottish Government. Professor Kirstein

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Rummery researches childcare, elderly care, social care and gender

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equality. Professor Phil Hanlon is an expert in public health.

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Professor Pauline Banks is Director of the Institute of Older People's

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Health and Wellbeing. David Watt is Executive Director of the Institute

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of Directors, Scotland. Professor Jo Armstrong is an economist with the

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Centre for Public Policy for Regions. And Dave Moxham is Deputy

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General Secretary of the Scottish TUC.

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Let's start with early years which has been a subject of much debate in

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the referendum particularly about childcare costs, Susan Deacon. I'm

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wondering whether you think that's the right debate to be having? Well,

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I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I'm delight that had

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we are talking about a really important issue that affects

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children and families, but the way that we have arrived at this debate

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and the way that we are conducting is it is odd. We don't need

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constitutional change to improve childcare in this country and that's

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just a fact. I am not alone in having a concern that we are having

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this debate predicated on the notion that all these women, would, could

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and should suddenly go back to work this they have more childcare

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available. We're not talking about children. We're not talking about

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choice. But most of all, my concern would be that we're still failing to

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have a grounded and rounded conversation about the things that

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make a difference to a child's early life experience and so much of that

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goes on in the home and in the community. The objection, I suppose,

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to the way the debate has been framed at the moment, that it is not

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a debate about children, it is a debate about adults? Well,

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absolutely and you know, yes, it is important. It is crucially important

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that we talk about the economy in the same breath as we talk about

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social issues. I don't think we do that nearly enough, but we have

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extracted this one very narrow, you know, scenario that affects a narrow

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group of women, or supposedly affects a certain number of women in

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the population that we are going to flick a switch and it is all going

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to change. As I say, we need to broaden this right out. Not for the

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first time we are over simpifying a really important issue that affects

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not just all of us as individuals, but has a huge impact on our

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society. Jo Armstrong, the other thing that's going rather

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undiscussed is whether there is any economic rational. Some of the

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charities and all of rest of it who are campaigning on it. They are

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saying it is great we are taking this serious. Some would say

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providing childcare is great, but there is no economic reason for it

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in I think you would be investing in early years for the life chances of

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individuals and that would hopefully reduce inequalities and help develop

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economic productivity from those individuals in later years, but it

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is difficult to see the evidence that says a significant economic

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benefits from intervention of childcare... What about increasing

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childcare payments so that people go back to work? Is there an economic

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case for that? Again, unless it is targeted, you are giving money to

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people who would be paying for it in any case. It maybe unproductive

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redistribution. Whenever politicians say we will pay for this because of

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the economic benefits it would bring, you would caution a healthy

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dose of scepticism? Yes, it is very difficult to see. Phil Hanlon, what

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do you make of this? Do you think this debate has been framed in the

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right way? I agree with Susan, it is too narrow. If you ask is there an

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economic, social, health and benefit of giving children the best possible

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start in life? The evidence is unequivocal. Are there many children

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in Scotland who aren't having that? Yes, definitely. If you could deal

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with that... The point is, paying more childcare so that people go

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back to work is not necessarily the same issue as the one you are

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talking about. It could be one small component and that's the frustration

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many people in Scotland are feeling about the debate and about the

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referendum is they recognise, people understand what it takes to raise a

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child and the complexity of it all. If you said to a mother who has just

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seen their child leave secondary school who has flourished in all

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ways, what was the one thing that achieved it? The mother would think

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it is a ridiculous question. Equally so, the idea that one intervention

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will transform early years in Scotland is equally ridiculous, but

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the question needs to be asked because we need to debate things

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policy by policy, could that policy be part of a more comprehensive set

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of interventions that make a real difference to the early years? Well,

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that's a question worth asking and it depends it is done and what else

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is put alongside it. If there were a economic rational behind it, you

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would expect employers to be lobbying like mad for State to pay

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more childcare? Employers want, I think they want to see the best

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possible at long-term end of the education system whenever it starts.

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So they want to see suitable potential employees coming out of

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the school system whether at 16 or 18 or out of universities. They

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would understand the sooner they start, the better, from that

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economic point of view and secondly, they would be happy to see a number

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of parents male or female being more available for the workforce through

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better childcare being provided, but that's back to the debate, is it

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about the child or is it about the employer or the employee and the

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adult or is it about the child and if we are trying to improve the

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child in the next generation then, you know, employers would want to

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see that happen, but as Jo said, how long can they wait for that benefit

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to come? In general terms, they would be in favour of it, but they

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are not expecting it to have a massive economic benefit to them or

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the economy tomorrow. Various parties are proposing certain

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things. Our members would want better funded childcare. The range

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of benefits is the right approach to this. There is a fundamental

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difficulty that no one is really addressing as part of the referendum

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debate which is nobody would blink at the thought of paying tax to

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educate a five-year-old in school, but the political argument has not

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been won as to why you might pay more tax in order to provide the

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wrap around childcare that a five-year-old might need. No one has

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grasped that nettle yet and for all of its positive noises, some of the

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things the White Paper did was distract us from that argument.

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Could I take issue with the separation of the economic and

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social policy and the idea that it is about either working parents or

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children? What the international evidence shows is if you invest in

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early years t has several benefits. One, is it gets more women and lower

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paid men into work and that is very good at tackling child poverty and

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family poverty. Secondly... When you say when you invest in early karks

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you mean -- early care, you mean giving more parents work? Partly

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that, but also investing in an infrastructure that vow vids --

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provides high quality childcare. You are seeing it as an economic

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investment just as you would in an investment rather than a cost and a

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drain. We know investment in early years benefits children, extremely

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and the outcomes in terms of both their employment prospects in the

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fewer and their educational attainment in the future is much,

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much better. When you say investment in early years here in that respect,

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that it benefits the children. What do you mean? It is better to have

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children in nurseries rather than at home with the families? The

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international evidence shows that a mix of both is the best outcome. If

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you have children who are just at home with parents their outcomes are

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poor. If you have children who spend a lot of time in early years,

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particularly at an early age, the outcomes are poorer, but it is very,

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very complex. One of the main things that investment in childcare

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achieves, it tackles family poverty because it gets parents into work

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and that's the surest way of getting those parents out of poverty and it

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is poverty that has the severely negative impact on children rather

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than the actual lack of childcare. If you invest in the family being

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able to work and you invest in childcare as an industry, you are

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getting more people into work and you are putting money into poorer

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families who are more likely to spend it in the local economy to

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build up the infrastructure. But you would say case unproven? They may

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spend it in the local community, but they would be spending their

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benefits in the local community. OK. Pauline Banks, I'm curious as to

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what you make of the way the debate has been framed?

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It is a difficult one for me to come in at this stage because it is not

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the area that I'm working in. For families to work together and there

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are a lot of grandparents involved in childcare and the changes in the

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pension age will make a difference to the availability of grandparents

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to do that. Every different policy has a different impact on the age

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group. Everyone talks about the phrase now, University of Mum and

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dad for the problems that young people are having on the housing

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market, but there is a labour force of grandma and grand dad? There is a

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huge amount of child care out by grandparents. But surely the more

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you argue an economic case for child care support, the more likely you

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are to reduce early years? Finland, for example, everyone says the

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education system there is marvellous but they do not send their children

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to school for a long time? We must be very hurtful about this sort of

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comparison. I remember in a former life being dispatched to the land.

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-- dispatched to thin land. -- we must be very careful about this. It

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is a different cultural context and a different political context.

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Everything is different. They have a different set of problems. It has

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become very fashionable to compare ourselves with the Nordic nations.

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But this must be treated with caution. On this issue of

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investment, if I could pick up on some points. The point about

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recognising importance, in the broadest sense, about early years

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intervention, the best thing I would say is that the family is hugely

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important. That is not centrestage enough in our discussions. We have

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touched on some issues regarding employment. Often when we talk about

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the skills that we need in this country we talk about the things

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that we do with or for youngsters from the age of 16 onwards. The

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foundation stones are laid in the first few years of life. It is shown

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in boundaries, communication, the general parameters. What I would

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also say... Talking about the point about grandparents being involved in

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the family, the thing that worries me is that grandparents are an

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unpaid labour force, but that fundamental relationship can be one

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of the most valuable relationships that there is. We must broaden the

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discussion. We must not just think about professional intervention. We

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must invest in our children. If you are correct in what you say about

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the economics of this is the referendum in itself particularly

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relevant? Is it a broader debate? Whatever mechanism we use, if we

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want more childcare are, we must paper it through taxes. That debate

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has not been had yet? At the moment, we are being told that full paper

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itself. It is difficult to see how that would work. There are no

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numbers to support that. Talking about early years intervention, the

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statistics would argue that if you want to sit for children through the

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early years and right the way through to university, you must

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spend more at early years stage. I want to move on now. In working

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life, I want to tackle head on a pertinent issue. Everyone is

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competing with their visions of making Scotland a more rounded

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society. I wonder if that is what people want. Some of the polling

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evidence shows that we want to be better off. That seems to be

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correct. From a health point of view, I think there is no doubt that

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three things go together and that his health and well-being, equity

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and sustainability. Any country that wants to have a healthy population

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that is genuinely flourishing, an equal ovulation, socially and

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economically. They must buy into the whole culture. -- and equal

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population. The population must be able to have confidence in its

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future. These are bigger issues which we are not discussing yet. We

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have been disappointed that both sides of the date are only concerned

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with persuading Scottish people that there are a side would put more

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pounds into the economy. That is a very low level debate. This could be

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a grand debate about the type of Scotland that we would all like to

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live in. What would you say to someone who would say in reply to

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that, is that I do not want able to become disadvantaged but I would

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like us all to be better off. But if that means some people get even more

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rich than they are ready, who would care about that? What I would say is

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that all the evidence shows that once a country is wealthy, and

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Scotland is now well be, becoming more prosperous and wealthier

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without more equality and a change in culture, does not improve our

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health and well-being. If we want to flourish, it simply having that

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narrow vision of more money in your pocket will not cut the mustard. It

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is that straightforward. Is there any economic evidence for that? The

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evidence is once you get over a certain income per head, you do not

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need any more. But we must grow and we must use and create more taxes.

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As health and well-being a function of equality? I bow to my

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colleague's that knowledge than me. I am merely a simple economist!

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People want to be incentivised to work and do things. We all do. We

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compete for everything. We compete for medical research funding, new

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jobs, new business. That mechanism, unfortunately, brings with it the

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idea that if you compete and win, you own more. That is the reality of

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the world we live in. The paradox is if you do that and individuals, by

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their nature, are inclined to do that, but we are also corporate.

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Countries that have greater social inequalities have outcomes which are

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generally pro-. -- group generally worse. This has to do with the

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culture which encourages distribution and we must concentrate

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on that. There is an appetite for fairness in Scotland. I remember

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Alistair Darling talking about being asked at a conference what are women

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going to vote for? What is in it for them? Is there gender equality? And

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he said women will vote for it in the same way as men do stop a care

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about economic prosperity, about the money in their pockets. Myself and

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the other women in the audience went that is not what we mean at all. We

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mean a fairer society for us and our families and communities. What is

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the distinction you are making? It is about better access. It is about

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access to opportunities, debtor education that is not the bicep.

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Education policy, we do not need independence for a different

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education policy. -- better education that is not divisive. You

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can have a fairer society, but it does not necessarily have been more

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equal? But there has to be a smaller gap. It is divisive when people see

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that there are other people with lots more than them. Scotland would

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probably have a vision for itself. When I have spoken to policymakers,

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in terms of the more a Gallic Terry and fairer society, more women

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involved in politics, for example, if Eric distributional of

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resources, that would not necessarily mean equal. Can I be

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boring for a moment? There is bruised more rhetoric about equality

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unit a good thing. If we lead the spare room subsidy to one side, do

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you find any policy is being proposed by anyone in this

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referendum debate, even relevant to the issue of whether Scotland would

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become a more equal society? I do, to the extent that what we see from

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the Scottish Government is a recognition that the workplace

:22:23.:22:24.

matters and the quality of work matters. To be fair, it has probably

:22:25.:22:31.

not emanated from any government in the UK for about 30 years.

:22:32.:22:37.

Translating that desire, if you like, to improve the quality of work

:22:38.:22:43.

and workplace equality, we are involving unions and other workers

:22:44.:22:47.

in ups killing and development of industry and that is an important

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goal. -- ups killing. -- improving skills. I think it is absolutely

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fair to recognise that there is a desire through workplace equality to

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affect inequality in a way that we have not seen so far. But not actual

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policies? Not actual policies. The other side is looking at the pro-UK

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parties, do you see anything there? It has been encouraging to see, for

:23:28.:23:34.

example, the Labour Party talking about action on living wages. I

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think from a number of parties at a UK level, there has been reasonable

:23:43.:23:45.

action on improving skills for workers. But they have not done as

:23:46.:23:54.

much as I would like them to do. I believe it to you, David Watt, to

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point out that rather like with childcare, we like talking about how

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great it would be to have more equality but we do not want to talk

:24:06.:24:10.

about how we would pay for it. The thing I despair about on both sides

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of this debate is that there is no emphasis on wealth creation. People

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don't care about how politicians spend their money, within reason.

:24:24.:24:30.

But they would actually quite like Scotland to be a very prosperous

:24:31.:24:33.

society, more prosperous than it is, and to some degree, that wealth will

:24:34.:24:42.

be part of the decision on how we vote and how we live afterwards. But

:24:43.:24:50.

how will we change the economy? One of the principles is to make it more

:24:51.:24:53.

equal and that has not come out yet. There is no fundamental flash of

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light on either side that will make any difference. Wealth creation, and

:24:59.:25:06.

how we spend well, might be politically divisive, but we would

:25:07.:25:11.

like to see more in issue to and innovative thinking from both sides.

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-- we would like to see more initiative. We want to see wealth

:25:20.:25:29.

earners using their wealth. We spoke earlier about the integration of

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public spending and public services and the economy. We need a broader

:25:35.:25:42.

vision over the next 20 years about how different economies operate in

:25:43.:25:47.

Scotland. We need to know how the public sector and private sector can

:25:48.:25:53.

integrate to a greater extent. If we want rater equality, it is striking

:25:54.:25:58.

that one of the arguments for independence is that Scotland would

:25:59.:26:02.

have complete control over the tax system. -- if we want greater

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equality. I do not know any proposal from any party that does anything at

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all to promote equality I changing the basic rate of tax. -- to promote

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equality by changing. They seem to want to say they want all these

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powders but will do nothing with them. We need to have a reality

:26:32.:26:38.

check about all of this. I am as keen as the next person about how to

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debate what is going on. But we are part of a global world and the

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global economic system. We might dislike some of the character is

:26:49.:26:51.

sticks but it is they are nonetheless. We also need to have a

:26:52.:26:58.

broader discussion about the global influences that affect what is going

:26:59.:27:02.

on in Scotland. I will illustrate this. One thing that annoys me most

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is the wages that go on in sport, especially football. I do not know

:27:09.:27:14.

how you break that cycle because it is a global market. We must get real

:27:15.:27:23.

here. The leaders of domestic policy are ever more limited in what they

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can actually do. Growing concern over many years that I have had is

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how in Scotland, we have put Bart too much emphasis in terms of what

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can be achieved by particular powers. -- we have put far too much

:27:44.:27:58.

emphasis. I just think that we have over eight the pudding.

:27:59.:28:07.

Pauline Banks, I am going to ask you about inequality and that involves

:28:08.:28:11.

older people because again, I'm not aware of this having been debated in

:28:12.:28:15.

the referendum campaign. All this talk about generational conflict.

:28:16.:28:19.

Now, one argument is that actually what we are seeing is not

:28:20.:28:25.

generational conflict, but the next generation, inequality being

:28:26.:28:29.

increased because what matters amongst elderly people is asset

:28:30.:28:34.

wealth and the divisions for young people is what you inherit will be

:28:35.:28:38.

more important as generations go on, particularly given the way that

:28:39.:28:43.

house prices are? That's true, but there is a lot of older people who

:28:44.:28:48.

pass money down to their children and help them. There is a lot of

:28:49.:28:51.

unemployment amongst the younger people. There is a lot of movement

:28:52.:28:54.

of money between the generations. Older people helping younger people

:28:55.:28:58.

get through their education and helping them buy flats and get

:28:59.:29:03.

started in the housing market. If you are fortunate to come from a

:29:04.:29:09.

family that has any money in the first place. That's the point. A

:29:10.:29:15.

certain class of younger people will benefit and another class of younger

:29:16.:29:20.

people won't and that promotes increased inequality? That's

:29:21.:29:23.

possible. Then you have got to look at whether people, it depends on

:29:24.:29:28.

your luck with your health when you are older whether you have to go

:29:29.:29:33.

into care, you might have to sell your house to pay for it. There are

:29:34.:29:41.

all sorts of complexities that can come into it. Would you just like to

:29:42.:29:45.

see your members getting more money and it doesn't really matter or...

:29:46.:29:51.

We would like to see our... I'm assuming you would. I mean if you

:29:52.:29:59.

look over a period of time at pay demands put in by unions, you will

:30:00.:30:03.

always find they have a bottom level and at least at the bottom. The work

:30:04.:30:07.

that we do around promoting minimum wages and living wages has an

:30:08.:30:12.

implicit knock on effect in terms of the middle to higher earners, the

:30:13.:30:16.

company deals with the minimum wage increase by trimming wages somewhere

:30:17.:30:20.

up the ladder. It is part and parcel of what we do is an attempt to

:30:21.:30:27.

equalise pay or make it more equal. We talked about the social impact of

:30:28.:30:31.

that. The economic importance of ensuring that more, if you like,

:30:32.:30:36.

baseline jobs are better skilled and better paid and frankly, better

:30:37.:30:42.

recognised within the workplace is absolutely fundamental and equality

:30:43.:30:48.

matters. David, what I want you do to confront directly, what Phil

:30:49.:30:54.

Hanlon said at the beginning of the conversation, would you challenge

:30:55.:30:59.

this idea and argue that wealth creation and making everyone in

:31:00.:31:03.

society is better off is a greater good if it produces more wealth than

:31:04.:31:08.

perhaps limiting the amount of wealth you can produce making people

:31:09.:31:14.

more equal? I don't think that, I must admit we have some severe

:31:15.:31:19.

inequalities in certain probably FTSE companies. If you scratch the

:31:20.:31:28.

surface in Scotland. The number of high earners is extremely small.

:31:29.:31:33.

There is 12,000 people in Scotland on the 45 pence tax rate. Even if

:31:34.:31:38.

they emigrate, we are not going to make a lot of machine out of them if

:31:39.:31:43.

they all stay. The thing I would challenge as well is why are

:31:44.:31:47.

Government taxing people that earn the minimum wage? The Government

:31:48.:31:56.

taxes them. I also don't think employers, I am not sure that some

:31:57.:32:00.

understand enough, but bigger employers understand that having a

:32:01.:32:05.

healthy and happy and content workforce is economically productive

:32:06.:32:09.

and it makes their business a success. I don't see them as massive

:32:10.:32:15.

differences. Let's give Phil Hanlon the last say on this. If you have

:32:16.:32:18.

two individuals and their incomes are both rising, and they are quite

:32:19.:32:23.

happy with that. If I'm the person who has got less of an income, it is

:32:24.:32:29.

not clear to me why I should be any healthier because the other person

:32:30.:32:33.

is getting richer than I am? That logic is correct. I have no argument

:32:34.:32:41.

with that, but if you look at a societal level. In country A, there

:32:42.:32:47.

is competition, dog eat dog, massive distribution of wealth, opportunity

:32:48.:32:50.

and no sense of cohesion. The same amount of money. This same amount of

:32:51.:32:55.

money, but social cohesion, sense of wanting to solve the problems and

:32:56.:33:02.

all in it together, across generational support, that equally

:33:03.:33:06.

wealthy country has better health and social outcomes. All the

:33:07.:33:10.

international data suggests that to be true. Now, what you do with that

:33:11.:33:15.

insight isn't straightforward. You get back to the individual debates

:33:16.:33:19.

about the workplace and about each part of the workforce wanting the

:33:20.:33:24.

best for themselves and so on. It doesn't solve the problem, about if

:33:25.:33:29.

you -- but if you want a country that's already wealthy to do better,

:33:30.:33:32.

you need to take the whole population along with you and in

:33:33.:33:36.

Scotland, in particular, if we talk about inequality, I don't think it

:33:37.:33:39.

is about the highest paid and the bankers and so on, I think it is

:33:40.:33:43.

what we do about a fifth of the population, who haven't receipt

:33:44.:33:46.

recovered from the industrialisation when those high skilled, good jobs,

:33:47.:33:53.

breadwinner jobs disappeared, they will never come back and there are

:33:54.:33:58.

individuals who found their way out that, but there are many communities

:33:59.:34:02.

who have yet to have a route out of that reaction to

:34:03.:34:07.

de-industrialisation. A future Scotland could confront that. The

:34:08.:34:11.

fact we don't ha solutions at the moment, doesn't mean that we

:34:12.:34:14.

couldn't yet have them. I want to move on. Older people and people

:34:15.:34:20.

becoming old. Pauline Banks, your specialist subject. This is a

:34:21.:34:25.

complex area, I want to ask you something basic. If you are an

:34:26.:34:28.

elderly person or someone approaching retirement age and you

:34:29.:34:32.

see the arguments about the referendum campaign, it is not a

:34:33.:34:36.

question of what side you are on, isn't it, it is almost so

:34:37.:34:40.

complicated you don't know how to think about this stuff? I think

:34:41.:34:44.

people know very well how to think about it. We're talking about people

:34:45.:34:48.

approaching retirement age. You are talking about people from their 60s

:34:49.:34:53.

up to 100s, you are talking two or three generations there. You can't

:34:54.:34:58.

put everybody who is older in the one category. There are significant

:34:59.:35:00.

things people are concerned about their pensions, whether their

:35:01.:35:03.

pensions are going to change. We have been assured that they will not

:35:04.:35:06.

change. There are issues about the pension age rising when we have

:35:07.:35:13.

poorer health in Scotland. The White Paper suggested that they will put

:35:14.:35:16.

the pension age up to 66, the same as England, but they will look at it

:35:17.:35:23.

again before they put it up to 6 or 6 -- 67 or 68 on the basis what is

:35:24.:35:27.

appropriate for Scotland. While we have more older people in Scotland

:35:28.:35:32.

than England, they don't live as long of the it is a hugely complex

:35:33.:35:36.

picture to be looking at. Do you reckon it all evens out? I can't

:35:37.:35:41.

tell you. I'm not the economist. What do you make this David Watts?

:35:42.:35:45.

Well, I think what's very interesting from an economic, from a

:35:46.:35:49.

business prospective, there is a real worry about the future of -

:35:50.:35:54.

somebody not far away from going off on a pension, I would be interested

:35:55.:35:58.

to know who is going to pay for my pension, where is the next workforce

:35:59.:36:02.

going to come? And that's a real challenge with the demographic. I'm

:36:03.:36:07.

curious whether, there is this issue, isn't there, about

:36:08.:36:10.

cross-border pensions and whether there might be European rules which

:36:11.:36:15.

would mean that say if an English company which was, if you were

:36:16.:36:20.

ogging in Scotland -- working in Scotland, it would have to be fully

:36:21.:36:25.

funded. Is that an issue? It is an issue. There is the personal issue

:36:26.:36:30.

and the structural issue. The private pension industry, the EU

:36:31.:36:35.

rules have been put in place, you have to be residing in the country

:36:36.:36:39.

where the majority of your business is done and hence the reason

:36:40.:36:45.

Standard Life has taken recautionary -- precautionary steps they may have

:36:46.:36:48.

to follow. They have done a risk assessment and assessed most of

:36:49.:36:51.

their business is south of the border and they have to set up

:36:52.:36:57.

company structures there which they may or may not have, depending on

:36:58.:37:02.

vote and whether the EU will move from that. There is no question

:37:03.:37:06.

whatsoever, so pick an industry that's most concerned because of the

:37:07.:37:10.

regulatory nature and the costs, there is no question the financial

:37:11.:37:14.

services industry is seriously concerned about independence and it

:37:15.:37:18.

has the right to be concerned because of the two factors. What do

:37:19.:37:28.

you think if you are an elderly person, you should be thinking about

:37:29.:37:31.

when you think about the referendum? I would be less concerned about

:37:32.:37:35.

pensions and very, very much concerned about care and long-term

:37:36.:37:39.

care and nursing care and what was going to happen to my money and my

:37:40.:37:46.

benefits and my assets. I think what is interesting is that we have in

:37:47.:37:51.

Scotland a very complex system of welfare with certain areas like

:37:52.:37:56.

benefits and welfare benefits and pensions decided in Westminster and

:37:57.:38:01.

other areas like social care decided on a very local area and not just

:38:02.:38:08.

Scotland, but local authorities controlling that system and what we

:38:09.:38:13.

see is a lot of waste in the system and a lot of unfairness in the

:38:14.:38:18.

system. We have 32 different local authorities in Scotland and that

:38:19.:38:24.

means 2 #3 32 different systems of social care and entitlements to

:38:25.:38:32.

care. Have you not put your finger on? What you have just said, I have

:38:33.:38:37.

not heard addressed by either side? I find it shocking as somebody, well

:38:38.:38:46.

you will know my from my accent I am the only non-Scot. I have a stake in

:38:47.:38:53.

this and my family have a stake in this. Neither side are grasping the

:38:54.:38:58.

nettle. We have a crisis in the funding and delivery of long-term

:38:59.:39:01.

care for elderly people in the whole of the developed world. We need to

:39:02.:39:05.

really do something quite serious about this. Now, we would have, to

:39:06.:39:10.

link it back to the referendum, we could have a very interesting debate

:39:11.:39:15.

about the linking of welfare benefits and social care and for

:39:16.:39:20.

example, putting packages of Attendance Allowance and personal

:39:21.:39:23.

independence payments that would enable people to plan for their

:39:24.:39:27.

future and plan for their care. We could look at having a system of

:39:28.:39:31.

long-term care insurance that's devolved to Scotland, such as

:39:32.:39:35.

Germany has, but neither side is ragz these -- raising these options.

:39:36.:39:41.

These are schemes which individuals would pay into the scheme if you are

:39:42.:39:45.

lucky enough to own a house, your house wouldn't be taken away?

:39:46.:39:50.

Exactly. Rather than it being an assess the based thing -- asset

:39:51.:39:56.

based thing. It is a three-way relationship. Scotland could do

:39:57.:39:59.

that. It could only do that with independence because it has got to

:40:00.:40:04.

control the taxation system and the economic policy as well as the

:40:05.:40:07.

social care system. It is interesting that, you know, I go

:40:08.:40:11.

back to David's point saying the White Paper had some interesting

:40:12.:40:14.

ideas about what it thought some of the problems were, but it didn't

:40:15.:40:20.

really present us with any exciting or innovative or ground breaking

:40:21.:40:26.

solutions. I wonder if we can take a step back? We are in danger of

:40:27.:40:29.

saying some of the shortcomings shall we say of the political debate

:40:30.:40:35.

begun and will end with the referendum debate. These are

:40:36.:40:37.

shortcomings with our political debate and our politics in this

:40:38.:40:43.

country. You know, we have not... Presumably across the UK? Well, yes

:40:44.:40:49.

across the UK, but it manifests itself in a particular way in

:40:50.:40:55.

Scotland. I am probably the ex-politician on the panel here. For

:40:56.:41:00.

the 14 years since we had or 15 years since we had devolution, you

:41:01.:41:06.

know, if you monitor this as some of us have been sad enough to do from a

:41:07.:41:10.

distance and from within, if you monitor the debates that we have had

:41:11.:41:14.

about health and education, say, forget about the constitutional

:41:15.:41:16.

question and further powers for a minute. We have not had fundamental

:41:17.:41:22.

searching discussions that cut across party lines about how we

:41:23.:41:28.

create a sustainable flourishing NHS or how we tackle some of the issues

:41:29.:41:33.

in our education system. I'm not going to fling your political past

:41:34.:41:37.

at you too much! But Labour were as at least as

:41:38.:41:43.

complicit as anyone else... I agree. In not having a debate about public

:41:44.:41:46.

service reform in Scotland, even if you don't like the Blairites they

:41:47.:41:56.

had in England? I agree with you. I have been on record for a number of

:41:57.:42:03.

years in saying that. It is our wider political debate and the way

:42:04.:42:09.

our parties organised and the way that they compete for votes that is

:42:10.:42:17.

the fundamental problem. Unless and until we see some fundamental

:42:18.:42:21.

changes in how we discuss these issues, and frankly the only way

:42:22.:42:25.

forward I concede is having a lot more voices and I don't mean

:42:26.:42:32.

so-called expert voices, but many more wider voices. They must be

:42:33.:42:38.

prepared to enter into that space. I think we have a problem because we

:42:39.:42:44.

are not as King the hard questions. -- we are not asking. The government

:42:45.:42:53.

has engaged with the survey population in a far more

:42:54.:43:01.

constructive way since devolution. -- has engaged with the population.

:43:02.:43:10.

At that is not what delivers change. If I can just finished. If you gave

:43:11.:43:14.

Scotland more powers to do that it would do it more effect of late and

:43:15.:43:17.

much more in the interests of the country. We have broadened this out

:43:18.:43:25.

in exactly the way that I wanted. I want to ask the question, all of

:43:26.:43:28.

these issues that we have discussed, is the referendum debate relevant to

:43:29.:43:35.

them and if it is relevant, does it address them? We have heard here

:43:36.:43:43.

tonight that all sorts of issues, including public sector reform, are

:43:44.:43:47.

not being talked about. It is not addressing them but it is relevant

:43:48.:43:54.

to them. This debate has illustrated how we are all in this together. The

:43:55.:43:58.

average Scottish person will have 19 years of chronic illness bit or if

:43:59.:44:05.

he or she dies. That is something to cheer us all up. You will be fine.

:44:06.:44:13.

But we need a public debate. We need a debate in society about how we

:44:14.:44:18.

shorten that. Scotland performs badly against the rest of Europe in

:44:19.:44:22.

life expectancy. Life expectancy will probably continue to rise. But

:44:23.:44:27.

we must talk about how well we all are. That will depend on a number of

:44:28.:44:34.

factors. The referendum debate is absolutely crucial and relevant to

:44:35.:44:40.

all of this. But not necessarily what is being debated. Professor Jo

:44:41.:44:46.

Armstrong, what do you make of all of this? It has started to force

:44:47.:44:49.

people to think about ends differently. -- to think about

:44:50.:45:02.

things differently. For me, the issue is not about policy ideas and

:45:03.:45:07.

some of them are really good, but it is about where we are now and fire

:45:08.:45:13.

we think we are going to get to. We cannot afford what we have at the

:45:14.:45:16.

minute. But that must have factored into the debate. If we cannot tax

:45:17.:45:21.

the super-rich and we do not have the capacity to grow the economy as

:45:22.:45:26.

fast as we would like, then in order to deliver them, we must do things

:45:27.:45:31.

differently and effectively we must cut services. The funding question

:45:32.:45:37.

is essential. Or you could put taxes up there is no talk about that. Is

:45:38.:45:49.

the referendum important when discussing these issues? It is under

:45:50.:45:58.

camouflage about the other 90% of things that we must talk about to

:45:59.:46:03.

get through to the population. The issues have not been debated

:46:04.:46:16.

effectively so far, in my opinion. We must grab hold of the issues.

:46:17.:46:22.

These discussions cannot end at the time the referendums have -- the

:46:23.:46:31.

referendum happens. Irrespective of the result, people should not field

:46:32.:46:41.

completely defeated. How would you sum this up? You're talking about an

:46:42.:46:45.

SNP government, writing the white paper. I do not think the population

:46:46.:46:53.

is ready for some of these debates. Talking about the care per older

:46:54.:46:57.

people, we have to get down to the roots in society and think about

:46:58.:47:01.

changing things. People like myself, we should be thinking about

:47:02.:47:06.

how we are going to change things in later life. It is not up to other

:47:07.:47:10.

people. Last word to the bosses as usual. Very briefly. The referendum

:47:11.:47:22.

has not brought about enough debate on issues like social care and that

:47:23.:47:28.

must change. Thank you all very much for your contributions. That is all

:47:29.:47:32.

from me for tonight. I will be back tomorrow we think. Good evening.

:47:33.:47:59.

With more sunshine it should be a warmer day than today. Northern

:48:00.:48:04.

Scotland seeing more cloud so temperatures won't be as high. We

:48:05.:48:08.

had 22 Celsius in Aviemore, across Southern Scotland with the sunnier

:48:09.:48:11.

skies here, temperatures will be higher. Looking at around the

:48:12.:48:15.

mid-teens across England and Wales. We could get one or two showers

:48:16.:48:17.

across northern hills.

:48:18.:48:20.

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