Browse content similar to 15/06/2011. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Riots on the streets of Athens, as protests show the extent of Greek | :00:09. | :00:12. | |
resistance to the medicine they are supposed to take in exchange for | :00:12. | :00:16. | |
the rescue of their economy. The protests are authentically | :00:16. | :00:22. | |
Greek, the consequences may be much, much wider. This is a problem not | :00:22. | :00:26. | |
just for the riot police and the Greek Government. Because what | :00:26. | :00:29. | |
you're looking at here is the frontline of the world's financial | :00:29. | :00:33. | |
system. It's six months since the start of | :00:33. | :00:39. | |
the Arab uprisings. In Libya, NATO fights to save civilians from the | :00:39. | :00:43. | |
wrath of a dictator. In Syria, NATO does nothing. | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
We ask the Foreign Secretary if British foreign policy is now being | :00:47. | :00:52. | |
made by Russia, China and tyrannies in the Middle East. | :00:52. | :00:56. | |
Both the financial crisis and the Arab Spring caught us by sur pri, | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
but they shouldn't have done. We speak to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who | :01:01. | :01:04. | |
says what he calls Black Swan events only catch us out because we | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
are looking at them the wrong way. There is a deep lunar eclipse | :01:08. | :01:13. | |
happening. We summon one of the nation's favourite astronomers. | :01:13. | :01:23. | |
:01:23. | :01:25. | ||
When you think about space it is like dead big! | :01:25. | :01:29. | |
Punch-up, tear gas and a Government in crisis. Opposition to Greece's | :01:29. | :01:39. | |
attempts to comply with the terms of the 100 billion euro loan is | :01:39. | :01:44. | |
running high. We shouldn't get pulled along with the news, the | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
mess the country is in was largely caused by pack of lies told by | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
Government. But today's protests and political chaos in Greece, do | :01:53. | :01:58. | |
have potential ramifications right across Europe, and perhaps beyond. | :01:58. | :02:08. | |
:02:08. | :02:08. | ||
Beware of Greeks taking gifts. Our economics editor is in Athens. | :02:08. | :02:18. | |
:02:18. | :02:20. | ||
It started early, the trade unions converged on central Athens and the | :02:20. | :02:28. | |
rest of Greece shut down. Today's general strike pulled, say its | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
organisers, one quarter of the Greek population on to the streets. | :02:32. | :02:37. | |
In Athens there were taxi drivers, hotel porters, dockers, even | :02:37. | :02:46. | |
doctors. I believe that many people will die. You do? Yes, I'm a doctor, | :02:46. | :02:51. | |
I'm a cardiologist, I see every day in the hospital coming more and | :02:51. | :02:57. | |
more poor people and the hospitals want money, the public hospitals | :02:57. | :03:02. | |
want money in order to enter the people in the hospital. | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
But that's just the result of the first round of austerity. It is the | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
second round, demanded by the European Union, that's made the | :03:10. | :03:20. | |
:03:20. | :03:20. | ||
Greek protest movement change gear. In the square at the very gates of | :03:20. | :03:25. | |
parliament, the word they are chanting is simply "Greece". | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
These are the Facebook youth, camped here for 22 days, not just | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
the left, but nationalists and some right-wingers. What's obvious, here | :03:34. | :03:37. | |
on the frontline, between the police and the protestors, is here | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
in Athens it is no longer a matter of class or left against right, but | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
here on the square, it is simply a question of Greece versus the IMF, | :03:47. | :03:54. | |
versus the EU, versus the rest of the world. | :03:54. | :04:01. | |
They are angry at the media, angrier still at the police. And | :04:01. | :04:10. | |
soon, the anger ignites. While Greeks are getting used to this, | :04:10. | :04:16. | |
what you are seeing here is a new level of social crisis. So almost | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
from nowhere the police just responded to a bit of missile | :04:21. | :04:25. | |
throwing by firing tear gas and everybody's run away, but this is | :04:25. | :04:32. | |
only the start of what looks like being a long day for the Greek riot | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
police, and protestors, this is just the front, this is just the | :04:36. | :04:44. | |
beginning. This was the day the Prime Minister | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
chose to launch his new austerity plan. He briefed the President on | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
50 billion euros worth of privatisation, public spending cuts | :04:51. | :05:00. | |
worth 10% of GDP, massive wage cuts, and massive tax increases. But | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
Papandreou's popularity is collapsing, his majority in | :05:04. | :05:11. | |
parliament evaporating, and outside parliament, this. | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
Though anarchists took the lead in the violence, every part of Greek | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
society was in the square. The trade unionists stood and braved | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
the tear ga, so did the youth, so did the mums and dads. But their | :05:23. | :05:30. | |
patience is wearing thin. First of all, nobody asked us. We didn't | :05:30. | :05:39. | |
vote for that. Papandreou fooled us. We are not thieves, we are very | :05:39. | :05:45. | |
decent people, we work hard. We think that we're part of an | :05:45. | :05:51. | |
experiment. They gave everything out, maybe they have sold the | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
Acropolis and we don't know yet. What they are fighting for is for | :05:55. | :06:01. | |
Greece to refuse to pay its debts. This is a problem not just for the | :06:02. | :06:04. | |
riot police and the Greek Government. What you are looking at | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
here is the frontline of the world's financial system. Many | :06:08. | :06:11. | |
people in authority believe if Greece defaults on its debt, as the | :06:11. | :06:17. | |
people here want it to, that will echo across the world, in the same | :06:17. | :06:24. | |
way Lehman Brothers did. As night fall, the fighting spreads | :06:24. | :06:30. | |
into the side streets, and for the protest organisers a single aim. | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
The immediate aim was to keep all these people together for all their | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
difference that is they want to see the Government out, and they want | :06:38. | :06:43. | |
to see the austerity measures paused and reversed. This is what | :06:43. | :06:49. | |
unites all these people. The people have some real anger about the | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
deterioration of the social conditions of their lives. So this | :06:53. | :06:58. | |
was the immediate thing, the first thing that people want to see. From | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
the morning after it would be a thousand different views. | :07:02. | :07:05. | |
that's the problem. Those on the streets today know what they are | :07:05. | :07:15. | |
:07:15. | :07:15. | ||
against, but if they win, what comes after is anybody's guess. | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
Paul Mason is in Athens, we have corrected the communications | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
difficulties. Will the Government survive there? Mr Papandreou spent | :07:23. | :07:27. | |
the day trying to form a national unity Government with his political | :07:27. | :07:32. | |
opponents. He has seen his own parliamentary majority evaporate as | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
people's opposition to the measures have grown. The opposition, the new | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
democratic party of the right refused to form the Government. So | :07:39. | :07:44. | |
we just don't know. It is a big problem, as well this, for the | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
European Union. Because up until now n this crisis the one permanent | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
thing, the one thing we thought we could rely on was the Papandreou | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
Government. We thought the European Union could have internal | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
differences, it is always talking to a Government with parliamentary | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
majority. Now that is not the case. This is purely, I think, the result | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
of the pressure we saw there on the streets. People are absolutely | :08:06. | :08:12. | |
furious about the existing measures, let alone the 10% of GDP cut in | :08:12. | :08:18. | |
public spending, they are now being asked to take. Why are people | :08:18. | :08:26. | |
beyond Greece so worried? Jeremy, the reason is, because so much of | :08:26. | :08:31. | |
the European banking system is exposed to greet debt, both Greek | :08:31. | :08:35. | |
Government debt, Greek banking debt and Greek private debt. If this | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
goes, I understand the British Treasury, the Bank of England, the | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
European Central Bank believe there is a non-negligible chance that it | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
comes into some kind of a Lehman Brothers situation. There are banks | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
in Europe that may not be able to stand up to the collapse of the | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
Greek banking system, that would surely follow a default. On top of | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
that we have the problem of the EU, eurozone rules themselves. They | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
would be completely breached. The credibility of the European Central | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
Bank would be pretty much shot to pieces if they allowed Greece to go | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
the way the demonstrators on the streets want. So there are already | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
people in the investment community trying to price in what would a | :09:14. | :09:17. | |
second credit crunch actually mean for the world economy. The world | :09:17. | :09:24. | |
economy, as we know, is not recovering very well. The Asia and | :09:24. | :09:30. | |
USA is faltering. The last thing we need is for another credit event. | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
There were more reports of refugees fleeing President Assad's troops in | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
Syria today. There is no talk at all of Britain or France or any | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
other NATO power intervening to protect them. Even the completely | :09:42. | :09:44. | |
toothless resolution the two countries proposed at the United | :09:44. | :09:50. | |
Nations has got nowhere. In Libya, meanwhile, the rebels still, 12 | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
weeks after Britain and France committed forces there, have made | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
no breakthrough. The MoD claimed this country can carry on bombing | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
there indefinitely. What then, are we trying to aheave in the Arab | :10:02. | :10:06. | |
world. Before we hear the Foreign Secretary's answer to the question, | :10:06. | :10:14. | |
here is Mark Urban's take. Six weeks of Middle East turmoil has | :10:14. | :10:18. | |
undermined old certainties, that the United States can police the | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
region or keep its clients in power. Has the cost of intervention grown | :10:22. | :10:27. | |
too great for western countries. Britain has its own historical | :10:27. | :10:34. | |
perspective on waning influence. Of course Britain has long grown used | :10:34. | :10:39. | |
to the indignaties of being a faded world power, it has relied on | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
others, and alliance, particularly the United States to enhance its | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
influence around the world. These days, pretty much everybody in the | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
western family of nations is in recession, and cutting back, and | :10:50. | :10:55. | |
the decline in their influence in the Middle East, be it economically, | :10:55. | :11:01. | |
diplomatically, or militarily, seems to be palpable. | :11:01. | :11:07. | |
In the Security Council they were meant to vote this week on a UK- | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
French resolution on Syria, but Russia and China made clear they | :11:09. | :11:15. | |
would veto it, even in this form, diplomatic action has failed. Not | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
least because other countries are often sceptical that the US or | :11:19. | :11:24. | |
Europe has the answers. I think what we are seeing is the west no | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
longer has the moral high ground in the way that perhaps it did in the | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
Middle East. That is partly because of Iraq. Partly because we're seen | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
as withdrawing from Afghanistan. Above all, it goes back to Israel, | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
Palestine, we cannot really preach to the Arab world, we cannot really | :11:44. | :11:50. | |
be seen to have the moral force we need, while we are fail to go | :11:50. | :11:55. | |
address the problem of Palestine. While the Europeans blame America | :11:55. | :12:01. | |
for failing to deal with those issues, the US is often outspoken | :12:01. | :12:06. | |
in rely. Last week the outgoing US Defence Secretary blasted Europe | :12:06. | :12:15. | |
for not pulling its weight in NATO. Future US political leaders, those | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
for whom the Cold War was not the formative experience that it was | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
for me, may not consider the return from being part of NATO worth the | :12:25. | :12:33. | |
cost. I have spelled out a dim and dismal future for the transatlantic | :12:33. | :12:39. | |
alliance, it is possible but not inevitable. 10 years ago NATO | :12:39. | :12:46. | |
counted for less than half of NATO spending, now it pays for 70%. That | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
is as a result of plunging European budgets. | :12:50. | :12:55. | |
NATO secretary general, in London today, argue that is it is up to | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
Europe to race its game and - raise its game and keep the alliance | :13:00. | :13:08. | |
relevant. NATO is more needed and wanted than ever, but I share | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
Secretary Gates' concerns about declining defence budgets in a | :13:11. | :13:17. | |
number of allied countries. If we are to accomplish our security | :13:17. | :13:22. | |
mission in the future wrecks need proper investments. Take away the | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
US and NATO capabilities don't look that impressive. Italy has 130 | :13:26. | :13:32. | |
modern jet fighters, the United Arab Emirates has 142. The royal | :13:32. | :13:37. | |
Saudi Air Force, with 250 modern combat aircraft, is similar in size | :13:37. | :13:42. | |
to the RAF. The Libyan operation is held up by many as a model for | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
future NATO action. But with America taking a supporting role, | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
its European allies have found it a strain sustaining the bombing. | :13:52. | :13:58. | |
is really a strength of our alliance, to demonstrate that the | :13:58. | :14:04. | |
Europeans can also take the lead. We have been used in the past to | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
having the United States in the lead in all major military | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
operations. In Libya we see European allies and Canada and | :14:13. | :14:18. | |
partners in the region, providing the majority of the assets, and | :14:18. | :14:22. | |
that is really a clear demonstration of solidarity. Given | :14:22. | :14:26. | |
what you have said about falling European defence budgets, your | :14:27. | :14:33. | |
concerns that you have expressed, is it really feasible that the non- | :14:33. | :14:38. | |
US side of NATO increasingly can take this role. This is only | :14:38. | :14:43. | |
feasible if the Europeans step up to the plate and increase defence | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
investment, that is my clear message. With thousands of Syrian | :14:46. | :14:52. | |
refugees now in neighbouring Turkey, both the Turkish and Iranian | :14:52. | :14:54. | |
Governments are becoming increasingly vocal about that | :14:54. | :15:00. | |
crisis. With Iran supporting the Al-Assad regime, and Turkey | :15:00. | :15:03. | |
critical. Just as Syria itself appears to have been emboldened by | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
the lack of an effective western policy, so these neighbours have | :15:08. | :15:12. | |
become more assertive. Well, we're seeing that certainly with Iran, I | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
don't think Iran is driving events, but Iran is certainly exploiting | :15:17. | :15:21. | |
events. Turkey is pursuing a very vigorous independent foreign policy | :15:21. | :15:26. | |
across the Middle East, a sort of neo-Ottoman policy, across the | :15:26. | :15:32. | |
Middle East, and central Asia, we will see other players as well. | :15:32. | :15:35. | |
We're entering extremely difficult period. It doesn't mean we won't | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
succeed, it doesn't mean that the present period of scratchiness | :15:38. | :15:43. | |
won't come to an end. It will require imaginative, engaged | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
loadership of a very high order from the - leadership, of a very | :15:47. | :15:52. | |
high order, from the United States. It is not just about being top dog, | :15:52. | :15:57. | |
it is about practising an engaged foreign policy. The fate of Libya | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
undecided, there is little appetite for further military action. But | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
the failure of the Syrian UN resolution, and the difficulty even | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
agreeing common western views on the most desirable outcome force | :16:09. | :16:15. | |
the be a rab spring, show how hard it has - Arab Spring, shows how has | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
it has become to exert any positive western action. I spoke to the | :16:19. | :16:28. | |
Foreign Secretary about some of these issues? Foreign Secretary, | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
Foreign Secretary, will you allow President Assad to go on killing | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
his people? We have taken the measures we can, which has included | :16:35. | :16:38. | |
EU sanctions on 23 individual, including President Assad himself. | :16:38. | :16:44. | |
To answer your question directly, it is not of course within our | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
control or direct power to stop what is happening in Syria now. | :16:47. | :16:52. | |
What is the difference between a mother and children fleeing Al- | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
Assad's thugs and a mother and child fleeing Gaddafi's thugs? | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
is about taking action about it. In the case of Libya the Arab League | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
issued call for help, to the rest of the world and the United Nations | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
Security Council. The UN Security Council carried a resolution | :17:10. | :17:13. | |
authorising the protection of civilians. No such attempts have | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
happened in the case of Syria. attempt to get a mere form of words | :17:17. | :17:21. | |
at the UN Security Council has failed, hasn't it? It hasn't failed. | :17:22. | :17:25. | |
Alain Juppe appears to think it has failed? I'm continuing to work on | :17:25. | :17:30. | |
it. It is true we haven't managed to pass that so far. A country like | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
Russia. This is one of the material points here, Russia has an alliance | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
with Syria, a much closer relationship with Syria than was | :17:37. | :17:40. | |
the case with Colonel Gaddafi's Libya. Of course such measures are | :17:40. | :17:44. | |
much harder to get through the Security Council. Why are our | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
diplomats so ineffective? diplomats were brilliantly | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
effective. They failed with this, it was a mere form of words, it | :17:51. | :17:54. | |
didn't propose any action at all? It is not a mere form of words. It | :17:55. | :18:00. | |
calls on the Syrian Government to recognise legitimate grievances, to | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
give access and co-operation to the UN High Commisioner on human rights, | :18:04. | :18:08. | |
and to give access to the Internet. It is more than words. Nor is the | :18:08. | :18:12. | |
story of trying to secure a resolution over. We have some of | :18:12. | :18:18. | |
the finest diplomats in the world, whose achievement in drafting and | :18:18. | :18:22. | |
passing the resolution on Libya was widely acknowledged across the | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
world, as a major diplomatic triumph. What you are saying is | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
that British policy on a country like Syria is determined by the | :18:30. | :18:36. | |
Arab League, and Russia? I think we have to get used to the idea that | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
our activity and our actions in the world will be predominantly as part | :18:41. | :18:44. | |
of international alliances. And must be based on international law. | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
This is a very, very important point, I have stressed it | :18:48. | :18:53. | |
throughout the Libya crisis is. We must stay within the UN resolutions | :18:53. | :18:57. | |
and retain the legal and moral standing we have from that, in the | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
absence of resolutions on other nations, clearly we are not able to | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
take such parallel actions. It is an accurate summary to say British | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
policy in these areas is circumscribed by the Arab League, | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
Russia and China? It is accurate to say that western powers operating | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
in the Middle East should do so in alliance f they do it, with Arab | :19:18. | :19:24. | |
nation, with the Muslim world, in co-operation with the Arab League, | :19:24. | :19:26. | |
with the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, and that | :19:26. | :19:31. | |
unilateral western intervention is unlikely to produce long-term | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
desirable results. You have described the Arab Spring as the | :19:34. | :19:40. | |
most important event in the 21st century thus far. Are we really | :19:40. | :19:49. | |
going to allow it to be obstructed by some tinpot dictator in Syria? | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
It is not our objective to allow things to be obstructed by tinpot | :19:54. | :19:58. | |
dictators, we will act where we can effectively. Just because we can't | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
do everything, doesn't mean we shouldn't do something. It is not | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
just about military action. Let's talk about military action in Lybia, | :20:06. | :20:11. | |
it is going on for what 12 weeks now, how much longer will it go on? | :20:11. | :20:16. | |
We are not setting a deadline. It will go on for as long as it takes | :20:16. | :20:20. | |
to implemented the UN resolutions, it is sustainable he indefinitely | :20:20. | :20:27. | |
on our part. How is it being funded? From the Treasury reserve, | :20:27. | :20:31. | |
when there are accurate costings available we will present that to | :20:31. | :20:34. | |
parliament. You don't know what it is costing? When we have the | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
accurate costings we will put them to parliament. It cost as great | :20:39. | :20:42. | |
deal of money. It is not the budget of the Foreign Office, it is within | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
the Ministry of Defence, predominantly. But met from the | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
Treasury reserve. So we will account for all of that, of course, | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
to parliament. No doubt you will account for it. I will make the | :20:53. | :20:59. | |
point about the costing, this is the crucial point, the cost of | :20:59. | :21:07. | |
failing to take action would be far greater than if we did. The tax- | :21:07. | :21:10. | |
payers of the country are entitled to know how much of their money is | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
being spent on this action? We will not give a day-to-day bulletin and | :21:14. | :21:17. | |
it is not possible to do so. rough figure would do, how many | :21:17. | :21:22. | |
hundreds of millions? We will give all of that in due course. What is | :21:22. | :21:26. | |
the end objective in that part of the world? The objective of our | :21:26. | :21:34. | |
military action is to enforce the UN resolution. What are we trying | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
to achieve? The military objection is enforcing the UN resolution a | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
ceasefire in Libya that allows a political process, the Libyan | :21:41. | :21:45. | |
people to determine their own future. That will happen with the | :21:45. | :21:48. | |
departure from power of Colonel Gaddafi. While that is not an aim | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
of the resolution, clearly a settlement in Libya is only | :21:51. | :21:58. | |
possible on that basis S our broader objective, is to create a | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
partnership between countries like our's, and countries in North | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
Africa, where they are able to advance to strong, political | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
institutions, in a free society, to a strong market-based economy, | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
ultimately, in my view, to be in an economic area with the European | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
Union. Not in the European Union, they are not European countries, | :22:16. | :22:22. | |
but in an economic area. Would we like to see all the countries as | :22:22. | :22:25. | |
democracies? I don't think we should impose a western model of | :22:25. | :22:32. | |
democracy. What I very much gather in Cairo, talking to young people | :22:32. | :22:38. | |
there, in many ways they want our help, they don't want us to say the | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
Westminster parliament must be replicated in Cairo or Tunisia. Do | :22:42. | :22:47. | |
we believe that nations throughout the world would be better in a | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
democratic state, compatible with their own culture, yes, of course | :22:51. | :22:55. | |
we do. Including Saudi Arabia? all nations in the world. We | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
believe human rights are universal. That is an argument we have with | :22:58. | :23:03. | |
China, that is a discussion we have with Saudi Arabia, it doesn't mean | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
we can immediately bring about change. Why were we caught so by | :23:07. | :23:12. | |
surprise by what happened? I think the whole world, to be fair, was | :23:12. | :23:18. | |
caught by surprise, by the timing of the Arab Spring. It wasn't | :23:18. | :23:22. | |
possible to forecast, even for the Governments in those countries, | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
when they would come to a head. They are leaderless revolutions, | :23:26. | :23:31. | |
they are not a plot to detect. This is hundreds of thousands of people | :23:31. | :23:37. | |
on Facebook taking to the streets, acting together in way no | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
Intelligence Service, even in those countries, could be aware of in | :23:40. | :23:46. | |
advance. Can I ask you the riots seen in Greece today. I wonder | :23:46. | :23:50. | |
looking at them you have any sense is here perhaps is a movement afoot | :23:50. | :23:55. | |
that may have a capacity to surprise us, in the way that the | :23:55. | :24:00. | |
Arab Spring surprised everyone? think, I don't want to jump to | :24:00. | :24:04. | |
conclusions about it. I'm not going to hold you to it? But I think | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
there is something in your question, that there is enormous discontent | :24:08. | :24:12. | |
among young people, particularly in some of the southern European | :24:12. | :24:17. | |
nations, about long-term unemployment, about the extent of | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
economic problems. We will see more broadly than the Arab Spring, and I | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
don't just mean in Europe, we will see the ability of people to | :24:23. | :24:28. | |
communicate with each other, through social networking sites and | :24:28. | :24:32. | |
so on, producing political movements for change, not just in | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
the Arab world. Foreign Secretary, thank you. | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
The two events we have discussed so far tonight, the Arab Spring and | :24:39. | :24:45. | |
the utter shambles that is the Greek economy. Both qualify as | :24:45. | :24:51. | |
Black Swan events, the phrase was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, | :24:51. | :24:56. | |
along with the economist, Noreena Hertz. Black Swan veents are rare, | :24:56. | :25:02. | |
have a big - events are rare, and have a big impact. Christmas is a | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
Black Swan event for the turkey, but not the butcher who chops its | :25:06. | :25:11. | |
head off. We need to be the butcher not the turkey! | :25:11. | :25:16. | |
Black Swan events appear to come from nowhere. But could we predict | :25:16. | :25:21. | |
them, should we be surprised when they do happen? Governments seek to | :25:21. | :25:27. | |
avoid risk, they prop up dictators, they protect banks. But does trying | :25:27. | :25:32. | |
to create an ordered world, or pretending has standards don't | :25:32. | :25:38. | |
exist, serve to make systems more fragile. A dictatorship by its | :25:38. | :25:42. | |
nature suppresses dissent, like a build-up of steam, if you try to | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
contain pressure eventually there is an explosion. The crash, the | :25:46. | :25:52. | |
Arab Spring, the 1979 revolution in Iran, by this analysis, were All | :25:52. | :26:00. | |
Black black swan moments. What we witnessed this year, in Tunisia, | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
and Libya, is simply what happens when constrained systems explode. | :26:05. | :26:09. | |
By this theory, we really shouldn't have been surprised. | :26:09. | :26:15. | |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb joins us now from New York, Noreena Hertz, the | :26:15. | :26:20. | |
economist, is here in the studio. Let's start with you, Nassim | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
Nicholas Taleb, how could we not have been surprised by the Arab | :26:23. | :26:31. | |
Spring? Well, the system was fragile, and the seven ore eight | :26:31. | :26:35. | |
sources of fragility - or eight sources of fragility, for me the | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
first one was the banking system, and still is fragile, it was like a | :26:39. | :26:44. | |
bomb waiting to go off, an accident waiting to happen. When a bridge is | :26:44. | :26:47. | |
fragile you don't waste your time trying to predict which truck will | :26:48. | :26:53. | |
break it, you should spend your money on this structure. The second | :26:53. | :27:02. | |
one is, of course, and the main one, is what we have with these regime, | :27:02. | :27:06. | |
propped unofficially for the United States, for the sake of stability. | :27:06. | :27:13. | |
Just like banks were, we had Alan Greenspan, and on your side, we had | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
the Labour Government, they wanted to eliminate boom and bust, and | :27:19. | :27:25. | |
they pushed the risks in the tails, the less visible parts of life. And | :27:25. | :27:30. | |
the thing explodes. We had that in these systems, in fact, in the | :27:30. | :27:35. | |
Black Swan itself, I spoke about Syria and Saudi Arabia, saying here | :27:35. | :27:41. | |
you have two kind of countries, in Italy they have loads of different | :27:41. | :27:44. | |
Governments, people hate each other openly. It looks unstable because | :27:44. | :27:49. | |
they change Governments. Here you have Syria with the same Government | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
for 40 years and Saudi Arabia with the same family for a century. So | :27:52. | :27:58. | |
which one is more stable, visibly Italy is much more stable than | :27:58. | :28:04. | |
Saudi Arabia, it is bottom up, it has a lot of noise, it vibrates, | :28:04. | :28:10. | |
and Saudi Arabia did not. The US Government did not learn that | :28:10. | :28:14. | |
lesson with the Shah of Iran. Trying to oppress the whole country. | :28:14. | :28:20. | |
Locked what happened in Iran in 1978 with the revolution. For me it | :28:20. | :28:24. | |
was way too obvious an answer given I was Lebanese and I was explaining | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
anybody who would listen to me that Lebanon is vastly more stable than | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
most of these countries. We had our war, and everybody is represented | :28:31. | :28:35. | |
in the Government, if you think the distance between the current regime | :28:35. | :28:44. | |
and the next regieme, it is minimal. One person with a beard, you know, | :28:44. | :28:50. | |
and the cabinet is minimal. Let me interrupt, what do you make of this | :28:50. | :28:56. | |
theory? I think we could have anticipated the Arab Spring if we | :28:56. | :29:00. | |
looked at what was going on in a very different way. We relied on a | :29:00. | :29:04. | |
small group of experts, the intelligence experts who did miss | :29:04. | :29:10. | |
it. If we look at what Al-Jazeera was talking about, in summer 2010 | :29:10. | :29:18. | |
they had a report predicting the uprising in Egypt. If we had | :29:18. | :29:24. | |
monitored The Tweets of Arab youth in the lead up to the protests, we | :29:24. | :29:29. | |
would have seen an increase in protest network. That is common | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
with a lot of Black Swans, we are relying on experts or a dominant | :29:34. | :29:37. | |
narrative or prediction about the future, that it will follow a | :29:37. | :29:43. | |
linear path, that actually aren't right. Agree and disagree with the | :29:43. | :29:48. | |
analysis, saying after the fact you can always find precursor signs, at | :29:48. | :29:52. | |
the time they were not that obvious. What is essential is not look at | :29:52. | :29:58. | |
signs but look at fragility. What is fragile and what is not, what is | :29:58. | :30:03. | |
fragile it needs to be fixed. It is understandable, though is it not, | :30:03. | :30:07. | |
that Governments seek stability. You can't have an international | :30:07. | :30:10. | |
training system without agreed rules. Governments seek stability | :30:10. | :30:15. | |
in the Governments they deal with, which is why they supported people | :30:15. | :30:20. | |
like Mubarak in Egypt. This is why I called that sudden dough | :30:20. | :30:26. | |
stability, in mylar writings. It is sort of like saying I would like to | :30:26. | :30:33. | |
reach a destination on time, but if I drive 300 miles an hourly never | :30:33. | :30:40. | |
get there. I think you're right that the west tends to support the | :30:40. | :30:45. | |
dictatorial regimes and traded off democracy and human rights in the | :30:45. | :30:55. | |
:30:55. | :30:56. | ||
process. I wonder if you are perhaps making too much of a simple | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
situation out of it. Dictatorships are putting a lid on the society, | :31:00. | :31:04. | |
that is bubbling over and that is the reason why we are seeing | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
protests. Are there not a whole multipolicity of factors involved | :31:09. | :31:13. | |
here. There was rising food prices and unemployment, there were new | :31:13. | :31:18. | |
food technologies that allowed people to interact through Facebook | :31:18. | :31:21. | |
and twitter. There was a whole configuration of different events | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
happening at once. Even when it is hot people are more likely to go | :31:25. | :31:34. | |
out in protest. There is a lot happening at once, not just the | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
political regime. I don't like the ad hoc explanations, in Indonesia | :31:38. | :31:44. | |
the uprising was called about food. Par rain is a much richer country. | :31:44. | :31:52. | |
We can't stop looking at catalysts as causes. But this is about | :31:52. | :31:59. | |
dictator s rule anything 17ths. Dictatorships can be enduring. You | :31:59. | :32:06. | |
had a hell of black swan at the time of it? That is not the point. | :32:07. | :32:11. | |
The point is the democratic system is vastly noiseer, but vastly more | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
stable than the system with a dictatorship, particularly in the | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
modern day as you are mentioning. The last thing we need is engage in | :32:20. | :32:25. | |
that catalyst has caused confusion and start looking for the precursor | :32:25. | :32:32. | |
signs after the fact. Look for the key is that we have unnatural | :32:32. | :32:36. | |
regimes today, we are not in the 16th century. We have | :32:36. | :32:42. | |
telecommunication and a lot of other things. We have trade, and a | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
very extensive trade between countries. You cannot have a | :32:45. | :32:51. | |
country in which women can't drive, as we saw in Saudi Arabia, and the | :32:51. | :32:56. | |
other one, like in the United States were women can do everything. | :32:56. | :33:03. | |
It is 100% equal qual. It is not sustainable. Something will blow up. | :33:03. | :33:09. | |
If you think about the fall of the Berlin Wall, part of the reason is | :33:10. | :33:13. | |
people in Eastern Europe got MTV and they saw what others had. I | :33:13. | :33:19. | |
think that is a cause. That would be the cause, now the catalyst. | :33:19. | :33:22. | |
I want to ask you about a particular phrase you have in your | :33:22. | :33:26. | |
an all circumstance I think you call it the stability of small | :33:26. | :33:32. | |
jumps, this is to say that you are constantly recalibrating your | :33:32. | :33:36. | |
assessment. Instead of being eventually caught out by massive | :33:36. | :33:43. | |
seismic change. How would that work? Information prices, I gave | :33:43. | :33:49. | |
miskal analogies because my social places come from more physical | :33:49. | :33:59. | |
:33:59. | :34:04. | ||
places. If you are experiencing force five, systematically, | :34:04. | :34:10. | |
preventing the small fires. The bigger forest fires would be more | :34:10. | :34:15. | |
devastating. In economics if you constrain a price, artificially, | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
prevent the market from changing the price, you will have a shock. | :34:19. | :34:25. | |
This is my analogy to other systems, and we have shared universalties. | :34:25. | :34:30. | |
The transfer systems have a lot in economy. They like a little bit of | :34:30. | :34:35. | |
noise. Noise makes information rise to the surface in political life. | :34:35. | :34:40. | |
How does this play out in political terms? In political terms if you | :34:40. | :34:44. | |
have, take Italy, where you know at any point in time where people | :34:44. | :34:48. | |
stand. You know the balance of power, you see what is going on and | :34:48. | :34:53. | |
you know what people want. People can either shake their trousers or | :34:53. | :34:56. | |
like Lebanon they arrive at conclusions and they can manage the | :34:56. | :35:01. | |
country, at least you don't have big shots. Where as in Iran before | :35:01. | :35:06. | |
the revolution you didn't know what was going on. Even the opposition | :35:06. | :35:10. | |
didn't know its relative strength. Nobody knows what is going on. The | :35:10. | :35:15. | |
regime doesn't know how repressive it has to be? The point is | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
information is key for functioning democracies, that is true, I would | :35:19. | :35:25. | |
agree with that. You it is interesting to maybe think about | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
the current Black Swan we are seeing unfold today. The Greek | :35:30. | :35:38. | |
crisis. In some ways it could have been predicted, if we looked at | :35:38. | :35:43. | |
what was happening to tax collecting in Greece and looked at | :35:43. | :35:46. | |
rising unemployment there. What is going to happen, moving forward, | :35:46. | :35:50. | |
this is a real case of surely of thinking not in terms of | :35:50. | :35:54. | |
necessarily being able to predict what will happen, but what are the | :35:54. | :35:59. | |
possible sin Nair knows, will they default or accept the euro. All of | :35:59. | :36:04. | |
which are possible action force now. What do you think about what is | :36:04. | :36:14. | |
:36:14. | :36:15. | ||
happening in Greece? About three- and-a-half years ago there was | :36:15. | :36:20. | |
rioting, and I was very surprised throughout, that they did not stop | :36:20. | :36:23. | |
rioting. You have this moral has standard argument that is very | :36:23. | :36:28. | |
apparent in Greece, much more so than in the UK and the United | :36:28. | :36:31. | |
States. It is very prevalent everywhere. Here you have some | :36:31. | :36:35. | |
people make money, they are milking the system, namely bankers or | :36:35. | :36:40. | |
people who benefit from loans. Other people have to pay the price. | :36:40. | :36:43. | |
Three years until the crisis, in the United States, in Europe, those | :36:43. | :36:48. | |
who make the money are making more money, or at least are not | :36:48. | :36:52. | |
penalised. Those who paid the price did not benefit from the process | :36:52. | :36:59. | |
before the crisis. So you have that moral has standard that, you know, | :36:59. | :37:03. | |
is very obvious. The Greeks started identifying it. Of course you are | :37:03. | :37:09. | |
going to riot because the people are paying the price today they are | :37:09. | :37:12. | |
retirees. People have to accept people have to pay for others. They | :37:12. | :37:22. | |
:37:22. | :37:23. | ||
can't take it any more. It is a Black Swan, is it? In Greece, no, | :37:23. | :37:28. | |
it would be for not having street rice in London and New York and | :37:28. | :37:31. | |
other places in Europe against the bankers. Thank you very much, both | :37:31. | :37:34. | |
of you. Lots of Australians got up in the | :37:34. | :37:38. | |
middle of the night earlier today, or tomorrow as it is there, they | :37:38. | :37:44. | |
wanted to witness the biggest lunar eclipse this century. When we | :37:44. | :37:50. | |
watched it an hour ago, it was disappointing, many believed there | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
could be so much ash in the atmosphere, there would be some | :37:54. | :37:59. | |
spectacular effects. Let's look at some images of the last full lunar | :37:59. | :38:09. | |
:38:09. | :38:09. | ||
Apology for the loss of subtitles for 50 seconds | :38:09. | :38:59. | |
With me now is the space scientist, Dr Maggie Aderin-Pocock, who will | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
be joined, hope by the impressionist, come amateur | :39:03. | :39:07. | |
astronomer, Jon Culshaw, shortly. Those were amazing pictures, today | :39:07. | :39:10. | |
was rather more disappointing. main trouble we have today is cloud | :39:10. | :39:15. | |
here in the UK. You have got some very interesting props on the desk | :39:15. | :39:19. | |
in front of you. What on earth are they for? I wanted to try to | :39:19. | :39:24. | |
explain why the moon goes blood red during a total eclipse of the moon. | :39:24. | :39:29. | |
If this is the earth and the moon, if you could be the sun. Sunlight | :39:29. | :39:35. | |
is coming in. Where should I shine it? Straight ahead. What we have is | :39:35. | :39:39. | |
this is the earth and this is the moon. What happens is the earth | :39:39. | :39:43. | |
gets between the sun and the moon. The moon is thrown into shadow. | :39:43. | :39:48. | |
That is an eclipse? Yes, it is a total eclipse of the moon. You | :39:48. | :39:52. | |
would think in the shadow of the earth you would see no light | :39:52. | :39:55. | |
reaching the moon, the moon would disappear. That is not what happens. | :39:55. | :40:01. | |
Although you have the earth, the earth is surrounded by a nice | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
cotton wool atmosphere, that acts as a lens and refracting some of | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
the light on to the moon. You do get light hitting the moon. That | :40:09. | :40:14. | |
doesn't explain why it is blood red. The reason is because there are | :40:14. | :40:17. | |
particles in the atmosphere like you mentioned. If I take the sun | :40:17. | :40:22. | |
and shine it through the water, it comes out as plain white. If you | :40:22. | :40:28. | |
add a few particles, this is a well known household disinfectant. I add | :40:28. | :40:33. | |
a few particles to the water, now when I pass the light through the | :40:33. | :40:38. | |
water. It does, yeah. If you have lots of particles in the atmosphere, | :40:38. | :40:44. | |
which would have been the effect of the Chilean volcano it should look | :40:44. | :40:49. | |
fantastic. It doesn't look fantastic. When I came in it wasn't | :40:49. | :40:55. | |
in totality yet. We have some light pictures, of how it lookings in | :40:55. | :40:59. | |
Jerusalem, I don't know why we are looking - looking at Jerusalem, I | :40:59. | :41:03. | |
don't know why we are looking at it there. It doesn't look very | :41:03. | :41:09. | |
different to me? It looks the same? I saw a total eclipse in 2007, I | :41:09. | :41:14. | |
was totally freaked out. First of all, you saw the moon being eaten | :41:14. | :41:19. | |
away, frequenty on a given night, then it did go blood red, I wanted | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
to look away because it didn't look right. Why do people like you get | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
so excited about this, it is very rare, apparently, there won't be | :41:27. | :41:31. | |
another for a long time? This is the longest, that is because the | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
way the earth and moon are lined up. Sometimes the earth is glancing the | :41:36. | :41:41. | |
moon, this is going straight across the centre of the earth, this is | :41:41. | :41:44. | |
the longest total eclipse of the senttry, probably the only one we | :41:44. | :41:54. | |
will see and we are not seeing it. This is a wit of a flaw in this | :41:54. | :41:58. | |
item! Mathematically it is very interesting. I haven't done the | :41:59. | :42:02. | |
calculation. Why are they excited about it? It is the mechanics of | :42:03. | :42:06. | |
the universe, controlled by gravitational forces. We could get | :42:06. | :42:13. | |
a total eclipse every month. But the sun moon and earth aren't in | :42:13. | :42:17. | |
total alignment and only occur occasionally. There are cycles frg | :42:17. | :42:23. | |
goes through, the lunar cycle for total eclipses are 18 years and ten | :42:23. | :42:29. | |
days. Between that there are 18 partial eclipses, all this can be | :42:29. | :42:33. | |
calculated with the all linement of the sun, moon and earth. So the | :42:33. | :42:39. | |
next time this will happen you can predict absolutely when this will | :42:39. | :42:44. | |
happen again? Definitely, yes. will be 21 or something or other? | :42:44. | :42:49. | |
You haven't done the calculation but it is about that. Do you get | :42:49. | :42:52. | |
the sense, when people get quite excited about this today, all | :42:52. | :42:57. | |
around the world dou, get a sense of an increasing aware - do you get | :42:57. | :43:03. | |
a sense of increasing awareness of as no mam kal events? It is the | :43:03. | :43:09. | |
same - astronomical events? It is the same people who get excited, | :43:09. | :43:13. | |
like me. Some people say great, fantastic, others say big deal. | :43:13. | :43:18. | |
What I try to do as a science communicator is try to get the not | :43:18. | :43:22. | |
so excited, excited about this. It is the ponders of the universe. | :43:22. | :43:29. | |
think we are joined now by Jon Culshaw, here he is. I time | :43:29. | :43:35. | |
travelled to be here. Forwards or backwards. You are excited about | :43:35. | :43:41. | |
this? Yes, yes. Why? It is just the vastness of space. I have gone into | :43:41. | :43:47. | |
Brian Cox, it just seems to be the right way to describe it. When you | :43:47. | :43:51. | |
think of the shad toe of the earth cast over the moon and - shadow of | :43:51. | :43:55. | |
the earth, cast over the moon, and it looks like, that it gives you a | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
sense of the solar system, space and the vastness of all of that. | :44:00. | :44:07. | |
You can't fail to be fascinated. is. We have just seen the picture | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
from Jerusalem, we might have a look again. There we are. There is | :44:12. | :44:17. | |
Jerusalem, that is how it looks? looks exactly the same or more or | :44:17. | :44:21. | |
less the same as normally. That is not fully eclipsed, it is probably | :44:21. | :44:27. | |
done by them. We should be just going into totality, that doesn't | :44:27. | :44:32. | |
look like, that it does go red. we were talking about the Arab | :44:32. | :44:37. | |
Spring or something, rather appropriately. Tell u do you get | :44:37. | :44:40. | |
this sense, we were just discussing whether there was an increasing | :44:40. | :44:45. | |
fascination, I sometimes, as an outsider, get the impression there | :44:45. | :44:50. | |
is an increasing fascination with what's happening out there in the | :44:50. | :44:58. | |
solar Aziz tem. This view wasn't yueflly shared, give us your - | :44:58. | :45:03. | |
universally shared, give us your version? As long as you have people | :45:03. | :45:09. | |
telling the story of the vastness of space. What is it, what is it | :45:09. | :45:16. | |
about it that seems to be having a tighter grip, is it to do with | :45:16. | :45:24. | |
religion? Astronomy is the oldest and greatest of all the scientists. | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
Nobody can fail to be fascinate bid a clear sky, a star lit night, | :45:28. | :45:32. | |
things like the eclipse, they have an awesome sort of majesty about | :45:32. | :45:40. | |
them. It puts us into a nice bit of perspective? | :45:40. | :45:45. | |
We are made aware of our smallness because of these things? It doesn't | :45:45. | :45:50. | |
detract from things but makes me happy to be part of a wonderful | :45:50. | :45:54. | |
universe. Thanks for coming. That's all from Newsnight tonight, we | :45:54. | :45:58. | |
leave you with pictures of what happened when the four-times | :45:58. | :46:08. | |
:46:08. | :46:15. | ||
America's cup champion, Russell Coutts, took his 40ld ft catamaran | :46:15. | :46:25. | |
:46:25. | :46:51. | ||
Hello there, a real soaking on the way to end the week. Even first | :46:51. | :46:55. | |
thing in the Major General persistent rain across southern | :46:55. | :47:03. | |
England, wo work - morning, persistent rain across southern | :47:03. | :47:08. | |
England. Hit and miss, as the showers are, they could be heavy | :47:08. | :47:12. | |
and thundery. Any thundery spells not to be relied upon. A coolish | :47:12. | :47:17. | |
day, particularly when the showers come along. If you get very lucky, | :47:17. | :47:20. | |
particularly along the coastal fringe, you might have a fine | :47:21. | :47:24. | |
afternoon. You will be lucky indeed, there will be a number of showers. | :47:24. | :47:28. | |
Temperatures up and down like a Yeo, the sunnier spells getting up to | :47:28. | :47:31. | |
the mid-teens, when the showers come along they will fall by | :47:31. | :47:34. | |
several degrees. Sunshine and showers for Northern Ireland, for | :47:34. | :47:42. | |
Scotland as well. The winds fairly light, so those showers will be | :47:42. | :47:46. | |
quite slow-moving as well. What about the end of the week? | :47:46. | :47:49. | |
Increasingly wet from the south. It means northern areas will be last | :47:49. | :47:54. | |
to see the rain. Some sunshine, eventually the rain will arrive. | :47:54. | :47:57. | |
Further south it will unturn increasingly wet and chilly under | :47:57. | :48:01. |