16/06/2011 Newsnight


16/06/2011

Paul Mason reports on the latest from Athens as a new Greek cabinet hold emergency talks. And how much do we know about the new al-Qaeda leader? Presented by Kirsty Wark.


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Transcript


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There $25 million on his head. Zairzairzair is the new Al-Qaeda

:00:13.:00:18.

leader. Tonight, exclusively we hear from his sister, who says he's

:00:18.:00:22.

not the savage men he is portrayed to be. He knows not that style at

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all, he's not that style at all, even now.

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Also tonight, Greece on the brink, the epicentre of a Euro-crisis how

:00:34.:00:40.

close are they to defaulting on their ever-increasing debt.

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Greek people have made many sacrifice, they have a limit, that

:00:43.:00:51.

beneath this limit we can't live. Here in the studio, the Greer

:00:51.:00:54.

perspective on the crisis, should they ditch the euro.

:00:54.:00:59.

Is the heat going out of the battle on climate change, our science

:00:59.:01:04.

editor is here. Some scientists think a less active sun may buy the

:01:04.:01:11.

time we need to engineer our way to a cooler planet. Collier and

:01:11.:01:21.
:01:21.:01:28.

Campbell celebrating 50 years of dazzling design.

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Al-Qaeda, now we have a face on the monster. The man to be the

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strategic brains behind Al-Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri has been given

:01:38.:01:44.

command according to jal jas year and, Al-Jazeera, he trained as a

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doctor and surgeon, and thought to be in hiding along the border

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between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Middle East experts are divideds

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too whether he has the ability to unite the different faction that is

:01:56.:02:01.

make up Al-Qaeda. We have had exclusive access to Al-Zawahiri's

:02:01.:02:11.
:02:11.:02:12.

sister. For years the chief idealist and

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tactition of Al-Qaeda, righthand man of Osama Bin Laden, and the

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operational brains behind the deadliest attacks. Ayman Al-

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Zawahiri is now confirmed as its commander.

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I believe, from my own experience is Al-Zawahiri is more extreme than

:02:29.:02:34.

Bin Laden. The man so skilled at getting

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people blown up used to be a doctor in Cairo. He opened a clinic, a

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private clinic and because he's very nice and he's supports the

:02:48.:02:55.

poor people, a lot of poor people and poor families gathered in his

:02:55.:03:01.

clinic. They started to talk about how far the Muslim people are

:03:01.:03:08.

depressed and suppressed in this country. In 1981, after the

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assassination of President El-Sadat, hundreds of Islamist suspect,

:03:15.:03:20.

including Ayman Al-Zawahiri were arrested. We believe in our

:03:20.:03:25.

religion, in m the practice and we tried our best to establish this

:03:25.:03:30.

Islamic state and Islamic society. He was cleared of plotting El-

:03:30.:03:36.

Sadat's assassination, but jailed for holding arms and tortured.

:03:36.:03:40.

state security used to take people, just to show them, Ayman Al-

:03:40.:03:46.

Zawahiri, in the prison, they used to hang him and beat him and expose

:03:46.:03:52.

him to everything that can give him pain, using electricity, water,

:03:52.:03:57.

whatever. On the surface you would not expect Al-Zawahiri to become a

:03:57.:04:01.

radical. Certainly not committed to violence. He came from the upper-

:04:01.:04:06.

classs of Egyptian society. We want to speak to the whole world. What

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really radicalised him was the court experience, you can see from

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the court experience that he's becoming a leader of men. Then the

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vicious treatment that was methed out to him by the large - meted out

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to him by the large Egyptian Security Service who is would

:04:22.:04:27.

torture him in his cell. After his release, Ayman Al-

:04:27.:04:32.

Zawahiri moved to Afghanistan where the mujahideen were fighting the

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Soviet occupation. Years later, his Egyptian-Islamic Jihad group,

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joined forces with Al-Qaeda. He lacked Bin Laden's charisma, but

:04:41.:04:47.

his anti-western vision was wider, and his organisational skills

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greater. Al-Zawahiri he is one of the few people who deal with

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organisation as a weapon, not just a structure. From my own experience

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I met with just a few people, they understand the difference between

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organisation as a structure or organisation as a lethal weapon.

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Many intelligence sources believe Ayman Al-Zawahiri was the main

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tactical planner of the 9/11 attacks.

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But now, ten years into America's war on terror, the organisation

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he's taking over is a different, less centralised one, autonomous

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branches of Al-Qaeda have sprung up in Iraq, North Africa and Yemen.

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He is the best known figure in Yemen now appears to have more

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influence among potential Jihadi, particularly in the best than Ayman

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Al-Zawahiri. In many ways Al-Zawahiri is the

:05:47.:05:51.

wrong man at the wrong time. Because what Al-Qaeda needs right

:05:51.:05:56.

now is an inspirational leader, who, through his words and charisma can

:05:56.:06:00.

inspire attacks abroad. They don't need a general at a time when they

:06:00.:06:05.

don't have an army. They don't need a manager at a time when there is

:06:05.:06:09.

nothing to manage for Al-Qaeda central, because they do not have

:06:09.:06:13.

troops that would necessarily be able to orchestrate another 9/11.

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So what I anticipate will happen is that there will be a competition,

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almost an interfactional war between the affiliate, especially

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Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and the central leadership of Al-

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Qaeda in Pakistan. My hunch, at this point is, is Al-Qaeda in the

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Arabian Peninsula will be more successful. But others think Ayman

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Al-Zawahiri can still command discipline throughout the

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organisation. According to man who once knew him

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well, he may be planning an operation in North Africa this

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autumn, involving the possible execution of French hostages to

:06:56.:07:00.

embarrass Nicolas Sarkozy. Qaeda's next move, I have very

:07:00.:07:04.

strong information, it's very solid, without a doubt. The next move is

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going to be like, it starts from North Africa. They will use the

:07:09.:07:19.
:07:19.:07:19.

AQIM, they will utilise the French hostages. They are already under

:07:19.:07:26.

their control. The AQIM, they will make sure President Sarkozy he will

:07:26.:07:31.

never ever make it for the second term as President of France. It's

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going to be a very good chance for Al-Zawahiri to express his

:07:35.:07:39.

authority as a real leader of Al- Qaeda, dealing at the international

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stage. Whether or not that's true, it is clear Al-Zawahiri wants to

:07:46.:07:49.

regain momentum in Al-Qaeda's struggle with the west. But his

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ability to do so may be gradually slipping away. Joining me now is

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our diplomatic editor Mark Urban. You heard the view there would be

:08:02.:08:06.

competition in the film. How do you think Al-Zawahiri will be received

:08:06.:08:11.

among the faithful? There was some time between the death of Osama Bin

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Laden and this announcement, a lot of people in the agencies that

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follow the counter terrorist scene was saying there was division in

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the organisation. It is true to say that Al-Qaeda, in its form that we

:08:24.:08:30.

know it, is partially its creation. It is the folding in of the

:08:30.:08:35.

Egyptian Jihad into the organisation that made it what it

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is. At this point the thing could explode in a sense, the factional

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tensions in it could come to the fore. The main threat to him, I

:08:43.:08:49.

think, is the so-called Libyan group, three particular Jihadist

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leaders who are said to doubt his direction and to be restive. The

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truth is, in situation like this, where the organisation is being

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pursued, hunted by the Americans in the way it is, pursued in many Arab

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countries too, the fact that he has such a long history at the top of

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the organisation, knows where individuals are, bank accounts,

:09:11.:09:14.

means of organising and communication channels did give him

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a decided advantage. How will he be viewed and what tactics will be

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employed by the western intelligence agencies? There is

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undoubtedly this line of analysis that goes, he will try to impress

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the organisation with a spectacular, that line could have been applied

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to anybody who would have taken over at this jucture in the wake of

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the killing of Osama Bin Laden. I think there will be quiet faction

:09:37.:09:42.

in the agencies, because he has some name recognition, and for

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agencies that are looking to defend their budgets and their efforts in

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the wake of the killing of Bin Laden, for someone like Al-Zawahiri,

:09:49.:09:55.

who is a Jihadist heavyweight, to have taken over, is, in that sense,

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useful. While his very devisiveness as a character within the militant

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underground, is also useful if that tips off some inside struggle or

:10:06.:10:12.

increasingly disobedient action, if you like, from Jihadist leaders in

:10:12.:10:18.

the other parts of the Arab world, supposed to owe him loyalty.

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Tomorrow the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French

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President, Nicolas Sarkozy, will meet in Berlin to try to find a way

:10:26.:10:30.

out of the Greek crisis threatening to engulf the euro. A new bailout

:10:30.:10:35.

is still being negotiated. Tonight n at then, the Government still

:10:35.:10:39.

seems in danger of unravelling, a cabinet reshuffle is under way with

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a vote of confidence to come. We are in the capital witnessing this

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vicarious moment. In the morning after the riot there

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is still tear gas in the square. The battle signs around St Agnes

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Square are all too evident and so is the political tension. Here is a

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building covered in graffiti, splattered with missile, fire

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damage around the back, the graffiti says "police murderers

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German collaborators", the problem is, this is the Greek finance

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ministry. This is the place that lost control of Greece's debt, and

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is now struggling to put things right. And just on its doorstep, a

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story in microcosim of what has gone wrong. These women have been

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camped here for 16 days. They are hardly anti-capitalist, they are

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lawyers and accountants, who have passed exams to become tax

:11:37.:11:43.

collectors in the ministry. But there is no money to find them jobs.

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It is unpredictable right now. Our future, even our close future is

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unpredictable, in three months or six months we don't know what will

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happen. We hope, of course, that's the best we can do. The irony is,

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Greece needs more tax collectors, its tax revenues have fallen this

:12:02.:12:07.

year, even after it pledged to increase them. Her message to the

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Finance Minister, stark. He has to take some measure, of course, but

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he has also to know that the Greek people have made many sacrifices,

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and that they have a limit that beneath this limit we can't live.

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He has to respect us. Meanwhile, in parliament, the

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comings and goings of politicians signalled drama.

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Rocked by yesterday's riots, and with his parliamentary majority

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evaporating, the Greek Prime Minister, began a reshuffle, and

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tried to stiffen his MPs. TRANSLATION: Now is the time when

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we cannot shirk our responsibilities. Now is the time

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when we must get to work. Now is the time when we must send a

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message to our society: now is the time when we must say yes to facing

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up to major decisions, here and now, all of us.

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International leaders rallied round. The IMF lift add deadline that

:13:16.:13:21.

would have forced Greece into a debt default as early as next week.

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President Sarkozy made this plea. TRANSLATION: I am calling on

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everybody to demonstrate their spirit of responsibility, and a

:13:31.:13:35.

sense of necessary compromise on which the euro is created. We need

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to defend our single currency, we need to defend our European

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institutions. This is our task, to do everything to preserve the

:13:42.:13:46.

stability of the eurozone, because without stability, no growth is

:13:46.:13:48.

possible, and we are all affected and we must take these decisions

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now. But the fundamental problem remain,

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the new Greek austerity plan, the people are hostile to it, and the

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centre right opposition party has rejected it. Today, its economics

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chief told me why? It needs to be a new way of thinking, that has three

:14:10.:14:17.

key elements, measures to restart the economy we suggested seven key

:14:17.:14:23.

pillars, we made significant suggestions in an aggressive growth

:14:23.:14:28.

plan. Without measures to restart the economy, we believe the

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privatisation will not in themselves produce the result they

:14:32.:14:36.

need in order to restart the economy. That is one side of the

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problem, here is the other, in St Agnes Square, where the protest

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camp has survived the street battle, they are holding out for much more

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than a reshuffle or coalition Government. They want the IMF to

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leave. If we get national Government, is that enough for

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people here to just disperse and go back to normal? Absolutely no. The

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thing is, and the thing that George Papandreou and the rest of the

:15:00.:15:05.

people in the system of governance don't seem to realise, this is not

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about a single person standing as an MP, people have had enough with

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the entire system of Government, this would include the others, the

:15:16.:15:20.

journalists and the businessmen all supporting them. What today has

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been about, essentially, is the politicians trying to regain the

:15:24.:15:28.

initiative from the protestors, but because the economic pain just will

:15:28.:15:36.

not go away, neither will this. George Papandreou, a man on the

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receiving end of an entire nation's anger and discontent, will have to

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endure some more. Paul stayed up for us to be live in

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Athens tonight. Any closer Paul to a proper Government or even an

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austerity plan. Mr Papandreou's problems started

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today when he tried to reshuffle the Government, as I understand it,

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various ministers weren't picking up the phone quickly enough. The

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problems increased as one member of his party tried then to call a

:16:08.:16:12.

meeting to unseat him. That speech you saw there was Papandreou seeing

:16:12.:16:16.

that challenge off. He's now stablising his own party in

:16:16.:16:20.

parliament, although with a much reduced majority. What will now

:16:20.:16:24.

happen, he will get through the weekend, appoint a cabinet that

:16:24.:16:28.

agrees with him, but then the fun begins. The austerity package is

:16:28.:16:32.

not really acceptable, either to the Greek people, or to the

:16:32.:16:36.

opposition, or to many of his own MPs. And what this IMF pullback

:16:36.:16:41.

from the brink has done today is really give everybody time to ask

:16:41.:16:45.

themselves the question, could they re-think the austerity package.

:16:45.:16:49.

What the centre right's objection to it is, is it does the cuts, it

:16:49.:16:52.

does the privatisation, but it has nothing to stimulate growth. What

:16:52.:16:56.

they are suggesting, which will not be music to the ears of the

:16:56.:16:59.

European Central Bank, nor to German voters, is tax cuts to

:16:59.:17:02.

stimulate growth. It is straight out of the right-wing economics

:17:02.:17:05.

play book, and it makes sense to them. But it is something that Mr

:17:05.:17:10.

Papandreou has written out of the picture, in his negotiations with

:17:10.:17:14.

the European Union and the IMF. Tell me, what do you think

:17:14.:17:20.

President Sarkozy, and indeed the IMF, what is the key thing they are

:17:20.:17:22.

concentrating on? What's concentrated their minds is what

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went on right behind me, that is the Greek parliament, and St Agnes

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Square in front of it, yesterday. And the international community are

:17:32.:17:36.

kind of convinced that the Greeks were prone to rioting and striking

:17:36.:17:40.

and these were basically left-wing protests, organised in a quite

:17:40.:17:44.

tokenistic manner. What has happened in the last month, is this

:17:44.:17:48.

so-called indignant movement, where up to 20 or 30 towns across the

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country, they have seen their town squares occupied, not by leftist,

:17:52.:17:56.

but by people, such as you saw in my report. Ordinary middle-class

:17:56.:17:59.

and working-class people, who just don't want this. When you see that

:17:59.:18:04.

depth of anger, that depth of opposition to austerity, and then

:18:04.:18:09.

you see it break out on to the streets, utterly violently as it

:18:09.:18:12.

did, with all the international media here, it has changed the mind

:18:12.:18:17.

of the international community. The IMF just said why are we pushing

:18:17.:18:21.

Greece towards a default when its own people are prepared to push it

:18:21.:18:25.

far more vigorously towards the same solution, I would still say we

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are nowhere near a solution here that is acceptable to the Greek

:18:29.:18:34.

people. And the Greek people are, I think, going to push this to a

:18:35.:18:38.

default scenario, whether the politicians want it or not.

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Joining me now is Pryce, the Greek- born former head of the UK's

:18:44.:18:48.

Government's economic service. Matina Stavis, a former editor of a

:18:48.:18:54.

Greek newspaper based in London, and Sajjan Gohel, member of the at

:18:54.:18:59.

this tank for European policies. Are your heads in your hands, where

:18:59.:19:03.

is the real world in Greece, there has to be an austerity package?

:19:03.:19:06.

There has to be, but with an end game. If you are a politician

:19:06.:19:11.

trying to make people take so much main for such a long time, you must

:19:11.:19:14.

explain to them what exactly it is you are doing, this Government has

:19:14.:19:17.

failed to do that. These people on the streets aren't stupid, they

:19:17.:19:22.

know what is going on, will there be a functioning Government to

:19:22.:19:25.

deliver the austerity package? is a good question, there may not

:19:25.:19:27.

be. We will see what happens with the vote of confidence, happening

:19:27.:19:31.

at the beginning of next week, there will be a debate about this,

:19:31.:19:36.

we will still end up with serious change, where possibly a Government

:19:36.:19:39.

of National Unity may materialise. That Government of National Unity

:19:39.:19:42.

will fare no better if that scenario is one that could happen

:19:42.:19:46.

now, people in the studio saying they don't want that, we want to

:19:46.:19:55.

push forward to default? I'm not sure they are saying default, the

:19:55.:20:00.

reprecussions would be horrendous, people would lose their money it

:20:00.:20:03.

would be terrible. Is Greece governable at the moment? Anything

:20:03.:20:06.

is governable, you need to be serious, you need to have experts

:20:06.:20:09.

and to be able to communicate and negotiate, and unfortunately this

:20:09.:20:13.

particular Government has been failing on these fronts. The Greek

:20:13.:20:19.

people are perreceiving them as just being the yes - certificate

:20:19.:20:23.

receiving them as being the question men.

:20:23.:20:30.

- perceiveing them as being the yes men.

:20:30.:20:36.

The Greeks know they don't have to deliver the austerity package

:20:36.:20:41.

because the IMF will bail them out? They hold the thump cards, they

:20:41.:20:46.

have realised what is at stake is the euro. The whole project might

:20:46.:20:53.

collapse. It is right, isn't t the Greeks hold the trmp card, the

:20:53.:20:57.

Germans - trump card, the Germans won't force this? Only in the short

:20:57.:21:02.

run, they can force the Germans and others to pay up once now, a second

:21:02.:21:07.

time next year, sooner or later the German tax-payers and others will

:21:07.:21:13.

revolt, that will put the euro into jeopardy. The euro can live without

:21:13.:21:20.

Greece, but not without Germany. will be tougher for exports without

:21:20.:21:23.

countries like Greece and Ireland. There is some kind of Machiavellian

:21:23.:21:31.

reason for keeping Greece there. the exports of Germany to Greece

:21:31.:21:35.

are a small proportion of our exports. German exports are booming

:21:35.:21:41.

going to China and India and the emerging markets. The peripheral

:21:41.:21:49.

Euro-areas is not a growth area for Germany, that is not the key

:21:49.:21:54.

problem blem. - problem. It may not be now, but it was a few years ago.

:21:54.:21:59.

With the creation of the euro, the Greeks, Portuguese and the Irish

:21:59.:22:03.

have been buying German goods, and they have kept the euro rather low,

:22:03.:22:08.

without that we will end up with a strong euro that will kill the

:22:08.:22:11.

locomotive that is Germany right now. Do you think Germany will

:22:11.:22:17.

eventually give up on Greece? immediately, but if it goes on like

:22:17.:22:21.

this if the Greeks say they don't like austerity, they want more

:22:21.:22:24.

growth and to be able to consume more, that cannot be paid by the

:22:25.:22:29.

Germans and the other northern Europeans. There may be a push by

:22:29.:22:33.

the politicians to pay now, but not tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

:22:33.:22:37.

This is a highly one dimensional view of things, apart from the

:22:38.:22:40.

weakness or strength of the euro, apart from the matter of exports,

:22:40.:22:45.

we have to consider the exposure of German banks and other European

:22:45.:22:54.

banks to Greek and other peripheral debt. Commerce bank has failed to

:22:54.:22:58.

offload Greek debt it has on the book, that is a serious liquidity

:22:58.:23:04.

problems, how will the banks deal with that? The German Government is

:23:04.:23:09.

certainly able to bail out the banks and Germany banks. Another

:23:09.:23:13.

bailout, you don't like bailing out Greeks or Irish or Portuguese s

:23:13.:23:19.

that not a moral hazard problem. There is certainly a moral problem,

:23:19.:23:23.

just as every country bailing out your own banks is one thing,

:23:23.:23:26.

bailing out somebody else abroad is a different thing. That would be in

:23:26.:23:30.

any country in the world no different. Vicky Pryce, there is

:23:30.:23:34.

surely also a problem with simply flight of capital from Greek banks

:23:34.:23:37.

at the moment, Greeks are removing their money? We have seen that, it

:23:37.:23:40.

is a rational thing to do. I don't think we will have a solution in

:23:40.:23:45.

Greece unless there is a bailout of the banks. The Greek banks need to

:23:45.:23:48.

be recapitalised and the German banks. It needs to be accepted that

:23:48.:23:52.

there has to be a solution to the whole issue, that will include,

:23:52.:23:56.

Greece, Ireland, Portugal, that will require loss, and I'm afraid

:23:56.:23:59.

the Governments will have to step in and make sure the banks remain

:23:59.:24:03.

safe, otherwise it will be a serious issues everywhere,

:24:03.:24:07.

including Germany. Isn't there a problem that if there is political

:24:07.:24:12.

instability in Greece, and that carries on, there is much less

:24:12.:24:16.

likelihood of Germany taking a softer line, even of President

:24:16.:24:21.

Sarkozy pushing this softly line? do believe that sooner or later the

:24:21.:24:25.

Greeks will have to come up with a credible Government to go on, this

:24:25.:24:29.

Government has been credible to the eyes of the Europeans and the IMF,

:24:29.:24:32.

let's make that clear. They have not been credible to the eyes of

:24:32.:24:38.

the Greek population. We should not be fixating on Greece. It has

:24:38.:24:42.

already been made clear the systemic nature of the problem,

:24:42.:24:48.

such a systemic problem must have a systemic solution. One solution is

:24:48.:24:53.

there has to be rescheduling of some sort, a voluntary, orderly

:24:53.:24:56.

reprofiling. Again and again? and for all, it has to happen with

:24:56.:25:00.

a number of other countries. What also needs to happen is the IMF

:25:00.:25:04.

needs to come up with a long-term, sustainable recovery plan, not a

:25:04.:25:07.

short-term austerity package, the Greeks then will accept what the

:25:07.:25:13.

Government is doing and it will be governable. A once and for all

:25:13.:25:16.

restructuring, would you accept that? What do you mean by that,

:25:16.:25:21.

cutting the Greek debt, that I think is really what is needed. You

:25:21.:25:24.

have to realise there is a fundamental difference between

:25:24.:25:27.

Greece and Ireland and Portugal, Ireland has done everything it has

:25:27.:25:33.

been asked for, there is no revolution, and it is going well

:25:33.:25:36.

there. Greece is the only country that hasn't. It is different in

:25:36.:25:40.

each country, we have the same problem, it doesn't matter where it

:25:40.:25:44.

is originated. One final thought, is anyone actually in charge in

:25:44.:25:47.

Europe, is that a major problem? That is spot on, actually. What's

:25:48.:25:51.

happening in Greece and we are talking about Greece being

:25:51.:25:54.

ungovernable and thrown in a political crisis a mere reflection

:25:54.:25:59.

of what is happening in Brussels, I would argue it is Miss Merkel's

:25:59.:26:03.

position that it is she who should step up and provide that

:26:04.:26:09.

sleedership, because Germany has reaped the benefits of the euro and

:26:09.:26:14.

been a regional leader. Angela Merkel has to step up to the plate?

:26:14.:26:19.

She has her failings, but in Greece we had a precise programme a year

:26:19.:26:23.

ago that has not been fulfilled. They tried but they couldn't get

:26:23.:26:27.

the administration to implement it, as was said earlier, Government

:26:27.:26:30.

revenues were supposed to be up, they are down, expenditure is up,

:26:30.:26:34.

not a down. With such a Government and such a society you can't deal

:26:34.:26:40.

with them. Just to confirm that, you alluded to it earlier, you

:26:40.:26:44.

think Germany will just give up on Greece? They will have no choice,

:26:44.:26:49.

if Greece continues not to keep its promises. Thank you very much.

:26:49.:26:54.

Now, we think of the sun as a constant sizzling star. But rather

:26:54.:26:57.

like most teenagers, the sun gets spots from time to time, and those

:26:57.:27:01.

spots increase the amount of energy its firing at the earth, apparently

:27:01.:27:05.

we're going through a particularly unspotty stage, which you might

:27:05.:27:10.

think would be good news for global warming, that in itself brings more

:27:10.:27:15.

problems and ones that can't be solved, even with Clearasil. What

:27:15.:27:20.

is the problem at the moment with all these sunspots, what do they

:27:20.:27:25.

mean? The first thing you need to know, is the sun has active and

:27:25.:27:30.

quiet phase, this go in an 11-year cycle. It co-relates with the

:27:30.:27:34.

appearance of sunspots. That is the dark patches we see here. They are

:27:34.:27:39.

areas of intense magnetk activity, the more sunspots you have, the

:27:39.:27:43.

more energy radiated towards the earth and the warmer planet we have.

:27:43.:27:49.

The fewer sunspots the less energy radiated and a cooler planet. Some

:27:49.:27:53.

scientists have been reporting that the sun is behaving oddly, it is

:27:53.:27:58.

unexpectedly quiet at the moment. The quiet nature of the sun isn't a

:27:58.:28:03.

surprise as such, the sun always goes through this minimum in

:28:03.:28:06.

activities, what is surprising is how quiet it is. It has been

:28:06.:28:10.

extremely quiet, at its quietest for 100 years now. The he can peck

:28:10.:28:14.

station is, looking at the current data, is it will probably continue

:28:14.:28:19.

to get quieter. The sunspot number will drop and drop. How far it

:28:19.:28:24.

drops that's still open to debate. This has happened before, most

:28:24.:28:31.

memorably in the 17th century, when we saw frost fairs on the River

:28:31.:28:36.

Thames, rivers normally frost-free frozen over. Scientists are saying

:28:36.:28:40.

that is the most we can expect, much cooler regions of the planet.

:28:40.:28:44.

The idea that we are entering a global Ice Age is quite far wide of

:28:44.:28:48.

the mark. But can we think of all of this now, this cooling

:28:48.:28:51.

cancelling some of the global warming? Not really. Because we

:28:51.:28:55.

still have the issue of rising greenhouse gas, and if we look at

:28:55.:28:58.

some of the predictions and modelling into the future, the

:28:58.:29:03.

suggestion is we could see our planet warm by the end of the

:29:03.:29:07.

century to anything between 1.5-4.5 degrees. Whatever the sun does

:29:07.:29:10.

isn't going to be enough to counter that and save from us global

:29:11.:29:15.

warming. We do need to worry about climate

:29:15.:29:19.

change, even if the sun was going to compensate over periods of

:29:19.:29:22.

perhaps decades, then of course what will happen is eventually the

:29:22.:29:26.

sun will turn round, starting to more active, and then we would be

:29:26.:29:30.

in a situation with a more active sun and hygiene house gas, that

:29:30.:29:34.

would be even worse. Some scientists are worried about the

:29:35.:29:39.

worse, they say we don't have time to persuade people to use energy

:29:39.:29:43.

more efficiently, or reduce emissions, and what we need to do

:29:43.:29:49.

now is geoengineer our way out of this. What is geoengineeringing?

:29:49.:29:53.

This is large scale, sometimes whacky science fiction-sounding

:29:53.:29:56.

project, very ambitious. We will have a look at the top three.

:29:56.:30:02.

Number three we have the idea of shielding the earth which firing

:30:02.:30:06.

giant mirrors into space, basically the idea being that these mirrors

:30:06.:30:10.

reflect back the sun's radiation into space. We would need many

:30:10.:30:15.

thousands of these. Millions? Possibly. Number two we have a plan

:30:15.:30:23.

to deal with the oceans to try to make them more fertile, chucking

:30:23.:30:29.

human wee into the oceans to make it more fertile to encourage the

:30:29.:30:34.

growth of plankton, they would absorb CO2 and sink to the ocean

:30:34.:30:40.

floor when they are dead. We have schemes to suck carbon dioxide out

:30:40.:30:44.

of the at moss stpee, artificial tree, they would take - atmosphere,

:30:44.:30:50.

art fix tree, they would take it - artificial trees and they would

:30:50.:30:56.

take it in and bury T it is called carbon scrubbing, it is used by

:30:56.:31:00.

divers, that explains the contraption in the studio. It looks

:31:01.:31:04.

complicated but it is a simple advice to allow dive Tories

:31:04.:31:09.

rebreathe their own breath. Inside - drivers to rebreathe their own

:31:09.:31:15.

breath. Inside is soda lime, it is calcium hide drok side, what

:31:15.:31:22.

happens is the breath is scrubbed clean of carbon dioxide so they can

:31:22.:31:27.

rebreathe for many hours. Even some of the whacky one there is some

:31:27.:31:32.

have been tested to an experimental level. Next week the United Nations

:31:33.:31:37.

IPCC panel on climate change will look at the potential and risks of

:31:37.:31:43.

the geoengineering ideas. I will expend more energy, I will cross

:31:43.:31:49.

the studio to be joined from San Francisco by a member of the

:31:49.:31:54.

steering group of the International Panel on Climate Change and the

:31:54.:31:57.

chief scientist in from Greenpeace. These ideas of geoengineering, it

:31:58.:32:05.

is kind of whacky, isn't it? Many of them sound whacky, at first, and

:32:05.:32:09.

many of them are whacky. I would just like to separate myself from

:32:09.:32:13.

one comment that was made in the introduction, in that most people

:32:13.:32:16.

who propose these kinds of options are proposing them because they

:32:16.:32:23.

feel it is very important to cut emissions deeply, and soon. But

:32:23.:32:27.

we're afraid these emission, reductions are not coming fast

:32:27.:32:31.

enough to avoid the risk of catastrophic climate change, so we

:32:31.:32:35.

need to start looking into other mechanisms that could reduce risk.

:32:35.:32:39.

What about the idea that you are putting sulphur into the air, you

:32:39.:32:44.

are jetting up thousands, millions of aerosol, how on earth can that

:32:44.:32:52.

be good for the atmosphere? In 1991 there was a huge volcano in the

:32:52.:32:56.

Philippine that is put a lot of material into the stratosphere, and

:32:56.:33:00.

the next year the earth cooled. And had that amount of material stayed

:33:01.:33:07.

in the stratosphere, it would have been enough to offset on a global

:33:07.:33:12.

average basis all of the warming expected for this century, we know

:33:12.:33:16.

these things can basically work, what are the unintended adverse

:33:16.:33:20.

effects to investigate. I will talk about that in a minute,

:33:20.:33:27.

let's talk about firing giant mirrors into space, is that a

:33:27.:33:32.

realistic option? I think the scale of that makes it a little

:33:32.:33:36.

unfeasible, you would need to build more than a square kilometer of

:33:36.:33:42.

satellite every half hour, which I think renders it unfeasible.

:33:42.:33:48.

The IPCC will be discussing this Weekend, does that worry you, is it

:33:48.:33:53.

- this week, does that worry you? It is an expression of failure to

:33:53.:33:57.

talk about tinkering with the earth's climate because we can't

:33:57.:34:01.

get loft lagging right, it is the position we are in. We are in a

:34:01.:34:05.

very serious situation, but some of the things we need to do to tackle

:34:05.:34:09.

climate change are fairly straight forward, and we don't needing to

:34:09.:34:15.

down this route. Let's talk about them, we raised the possibility of

:34:15.:34:19.

unintended consequence, what might they be? Geoengineering comes at

:34:19.:34:24.

range of different possiblities, but quite a few of them involve

:34:24.:34:28.

impacting on the earth's climate in ways we don't fully understand.

:34:28.:34:34.

They will almost certainly be differentiating impact, some will

:34:34.:34:39.

win and some will lose. We could impact rainfall, and cause some of

:34:39.:34:43.

the problems we are trying to stop in climate change. Even if they

:34:43.:34:47.

work, even if they can be agreed, we have still got this problem that

:34:47.:34:53.

we have to keep doing them just to keep the planet stable.

:34:53.:34:56.

principle is, if human beings contributed to climate change, and

:34:56.:35:01.

climate change is man made, you think there should be a man made

:35:01.:35:07.

solution to rectify it? I think dough and I are both in agreement

:35:07.:35:13.

that the best solution to transform the energy solution into one that

:35:13.:35:16.

doesn't use the atmosphere as a waste dump. That transition is not

:35:16.:35:25.

coming rapidly enough to make me feel comfortable. You think

:35:25.:35:31.

geoengineering will happen? I'm not about to predict the future, I

:35:31.:35:38.

think that these geoengineering options in a situation where we

:35:38.:35:42.

have catastrophic climate change might be able to save lives, so we

:35:42.:35:44.

should investigate whether our well-being could be improved

:35:45.:35:50.

through these approach, but I do not think these approachs are a

:35:50.:35:55.

substitute for emissions reduction. Do you let the culprits off the

:35:55.:36:01.

hook by saying things aren't moving fast enough so we have to up the

:36:01.:36:06.

ante? This is a danger. For me the most important thing is for people

:36:06.:36:11.

to think there is an easy technical solution so we don't need to

:36:11.:36:16.

transform our energy solution, there are risks that these things

:36:16.:36:20.

could produce the kind of add vrs outcomes we have just spoken -

:36:20.:36:24.

adverse outcomes we have just spoken about. There is the

:36:24.:36:28.

potential that famines can be averted if an ice sheet slips into

:36:29.:36:34.

the ocean or methane comes out of Siberia. We want to know the

:36:34.:36:38.

options and some may involve drastic things. My worry about the

:36:38.:36:41.

immediate discussion is we can already see, you tour the websites

:36:42.:36:45.

you can already see people talking about climate, saying let's not do

:36:45.:36:50.

any of that difficult stuff, let's do the cheap and easy stuff. Do you

:36:50.:36:56.

sense the political will is going out of the argument? The political

:36:56.:37:00.

will can be reignited there are a whole range of things that can

:37:00.:37:04.

reignite emphasis on political capital around climate change,

:37:04.:37:07.

including the domestic benefit, when you look at Fukushmia, Libya,

:37:07.:37:11.

the Middle East, you look at rising gas price, you think maybe there is

:37:11.:37:14.

a better option, those are the kinds of things we are often

:37:14.:37:16.

pushing. Thank you very much. You probably

:37:16.:37:21.

never heard of them, but you have almost certainly slept beneath a

:37:21.:37:27.

duvet cover bearing one of their designs, or worn a dress featuring

:37:28.:37:33.

one of their bold patterns. One of the most prolific partnerships ever

:37:34.:37:40.

produced, the sisters Collier and Campbell, will be celebrated at the

:37:40.:37:46.

museum. Their designs will be produced for stores such as habitat,

:37:46.:37:50.

and worn by Yves Saint Laurent. Sadly, Susan Collier, the older of

:37:50.:37:53.

the sisters, died just as the exhibition was being put together.

:37:53.:38:01.

I spent the day with the other half of the colourful duo.

:38:01.:38:07.

It is about life itself, not really a copy of anything, or an idea.

:38:07.:38:10.

is also about tell ago story. I think that each of these designs

:38:10.:38:16.

has its own story, and it is part of a narrative. Susan Collier was

:38:16.:38:20.

just 22, and Sarah Campbell, a teenager, when they began designing

:38:20.:38:23.

textiles. We grew up in a house where there was just colour on

:38:24.:38:27.

everything. There was patterns. were completely surrounded by print

:38:27.:38:33.

of all kinds and weaving, and colour, and cloth, and that was all

:38:33.:38:37.

just normal. Wielding their paint brushes, they created everything

:38:37.:38:42.

from curtain material, to cushions, from high treat fashion to couture.

:38:42.:38:47.

It is something you would want to be with, isn't it, it is beautiful.

:38:47.:38:54.

Exsub rent. So many of the design - Exuberant. So many of the designs

:38:54.:38:56.

look pressure, it is hard to believe they were 30 or 40 years

:38:57.:39:02.

ago. This is where we paint. In the beginning they worked exclusively

:39:02.:39:08.

for the iconic store Liberty of London, with their front rooms as

:39:08.:39:12.

the workshops. Even now this tiny artisan space be lies a success

:39:12.:39:15.

that travels the world. This is the little key that tells us what

:39:15.:39:19.

colours goes on what screens, these are the colour tabs. Colour is

:39:19.:39:23.

always very important to us. Our mum used to give us bits of fabric

:39:23.:39:27.

and paint and ask us to match it, which we were good at. I don't know

:39:27.:39:33.

how we learned to do it but we did. Was art important, so the most

:39:33.:39:37.

obvious influence has always been Matisse. I know Susan speaks often

:39:37.:39:42.

of the Matisse book that my parents had. I remember them coming home,

:39:42.:39:47.

they had bought a little Ivan Hitchings painting, it was the high

:39:47.:39:52.

spot of my childhood. We came from a very left-wing family, our

:39:52.:39:56.

parents' work was very much, I think both of them, in their very,

:39:56.:40:01.

very different ways, were very creative, very investigative, and

:40:01.:40:05.

there was never any question Take That's sort of work one does, and

:40:05.:40:10.

it is perfectly OKment we never had to prove anything to them. Is there

:40:10.:40:13.

a political overtone to how you think about your work? There is a

:40:13.:40:18.

view that good design should be available for everyone, if that is

:40:18.:40:21.

political or just common decency I don't know. I don't know if those

:40:21.:40:27.

two words go together. They are amazing, they are textile designers

:40:27.:40:32.

in a true tradition, some how. They haven't succumbed to all the sort

:40:32.:40:36.

of machinery and the digital things, and photo copiers and this and that,

:40:36.:40:44.

it is so easy to do on a computer now. Their work is so kind of

:40:44.:40:48.

really joyous. When you worked with your sister, how did you work

:40:48.:40:55.

together, how did you do it? was much more the voice of Collier-

:40:55.:40:58.

Campbell and the public side of us. She was brilliant at managing the

:40:58.:41:04.

work and getting work and all of that. I suppose I suppose more of

:41:04.:41:11.

my time was spent painting and drawing. Traditionally. We would

:41:11.:41:17.

discuss the my nugsia of think of these - the minuscule of any of

:41:17.:41:21.

these things, the rhythm, the pattern and the harmony. Throughout

:41:21.:41:26.

the years the sisters designed clothes for themselves, in 1971

:41:26.:41:31.

Yves Saint Laurent expressed an interest in using their fabric for

:41:31.:41:36.

his haute couture collection. How much of a step change was it when

:41:36.:41:40.

Yves Saint Laurent came calling? was a terrific opportunity. He

:41:40.:41:44.

didn't call to us direct, he was calling through Liberty, we were

:41:44.:41:49.

working with Al-Libbi of London Prints. It gave us I suppose two

:41:49.:41:53.

things, one is that he recognised the fun of it and the lovely

:41:53.:42:00.

painting, and to see what he made of what we did was so full of

:42:00.:42:04.

energy, so pretty, and it gave us the marvellous opportunity to do a

:42:04.:42:08.

lot of work around the theme that is he loved. Was he complimentry?

:42:08.:42:16.

think in the use it was a compliment, yes. I think the

:42:17.:42:21.

signature of Collier-Campbell has to be colour, the wonderful way in

:42:21.:42:26.

which the fabrics move, their richness, the heat that comes out

:42:26.:42:32.

of many of their works, it's so unEnglish, and yet they are

:42:32.:42:35.

quintessentially English in the way which they build on the traditions

:42:35.:42:40.

of Morris and others. We are being told that manufacturing in the UK

:42:40.:42:44.

is on the decline, what do you think about that? I think it is

:42:44.:42:49.

very sad, I wish it wasn't so, maybe it will grow again. To see

:42:49.:42:52.

the printing industry, which was such a huge and wonderful industry

:42:52.:42:56.

in Britain gone, and to think that we live on island made of coal and

:42:56.:43:00.

surrounded by sea which is full of fish, is pretty sad when we can't

:43:00.:43:05.

seem to use any of that. I'm sad for it. I think back, even to when

:43:05.:43:11.

we started and Liberty of London Prints were printing down on the

:43:11.:43:17.

river Wandall in Merton were William Morris printed, and the

:43:17.:43:20.

printing sheds were so vibrant and lovely, and the people were hand

:43:20.:43:25.

printing, and hanging up the cloth in the ceiling of the sheds, it was

:43:25.:43:28.

a wonderful atmosphere and a lovely place, that is what the printing

:43:28.:43:34.

was about. On May 7th this year, Susan Collier died. We did decide

:43:34.:43:40.

to paint her coffin, when I say "we", I painted with her two

:43:40.:43:46.

drawers, and their two daughters, it was - two daughters, and their

:43:46.:43:51.

two daughters, it was in the studio, we had to bring it in so it didn't

:43:51.:43:54.

alarm the neighbours, it was quite a laugh to do it. There was a lot

:43:54.:43:59.

of fun and a lot of crying at the same time. It was great thing to do.

:43:59.:44:03.

How does Sarah Campbell see the future of Collier-Campbell without

:44:03.:44:07.

her sister and working partner of over 50 years? It will be very

:44:07.:44:11.

different, I can't imagine not having my working partner, who I

:44:11.:44:15.

have worked with pretty well every day of my life, all my working life,

:44:15.:44:19.

with me. And yes it will change, because we have other people here

:44:19.:44:22.

helping us, but we will still be painting, painting, painting, that

:44:22.:44:28.

is what I love, and that's what I'm good at.

:44:28.:44:38.
:44:38.:44:38.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 41 seconds

:44:38.:45:20.

Tomorrow morning's front pages That's all from Newsnight tonight,

:45:20.:45:24.

we return to the problems in Greece for just a moment. We have obtained

:45:24.:45:27.

footage of one of the most committed protestors who hasn't

:45:27.:45:31.

missed a riot for the last three years and always on the frontline,

:45:31.:45:41.
:45:41.:45:45.

we think his name is Fido! # There's a voice that keeps on

:45:45.:45:48.

calling me # Down the road

:45:48.:45:52.

# It's where I'll always be # Every stop I make

:45:52.:45:56.

# I'll make a new friend # Can't stay for long

:45:56.:45:59.

# Just turn around # I'm gone again

:45:59.:46:03.

# Maybe tomorrow I'll want to settle down

:46:03.:46:07.

# Until tomorrow # I'll just keep moving on

:46:07.:46:17.
:46:17.:46:19.

# Down this road Today's heavy showers are fading

:46:19.:46:24.

But there's no cloud and rain to come tomorrow. Initially the wetter

:46:24.:46:27.

weather drives northwards up the western side of the UK, then we

:46:27.:46:30.

push rain into eastern areas during the afternoon. I don't think there

:46:30.:46:35.

will be much rain to the east of the Pennine, always wetter in North

:46:35.:46:39.

West England. Later in the day through the Midland, East Anglia

:46:39.:46:43.

and the south-east Midlands, the rain will push back the

:46:43.:46:47.

temperatures, a cool southerly breeze picking up along the south

:46:47.:46:51.

of England, in the south west there could be evening sunshine in

:46:51.:46:55.

Cornwall and Devon in the rain. Sunshine in Wales, clouding over

:46:55.:47:00.

quickly, rain becoming steader and heavier across the Brecon beacon,

:47:00.:47:03.

heavier rain will clear away from eastern parts of Northern Ireland,

:47:03.:47:06.

then back into the bog standard sunshine and showers you might say,

:47:06.:47:11.

it will turn wetter in Scotland as main pushing northward, the far

:47:11.:47:14.

north not doing too bad. In Inverness, very little rain here,

:47:14.:47:18.

there will be rain moving into Edinburgh, that rain will continue

:47:18.:47:22.

on Friday as well. Looking further south the wet weather doesn't

:47:22.:47:27.

really go away, temperatures 14-15, less cold on Saturday, but there

:47:27.:47:32.

Will a cabinet reshuffle and emergency talks be enough to ease fears that Greece will default on its debt? Will it end the riots on the streets? Paul Mason reports from Athens. And how much do we know about the new al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri?

Presented by Kirsty Wark.


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