29/06/2011 Newsnight


29/06/2011

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman.


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Sound and fury on the streets, but after more than a month of protest,

:00:13.:00:20.

the Greek parliament votes for the austerity programme wanted by the

:00:20.:00:23.

country's backers. Right behind me it's all happening, this is the

:00:24.:00:27.

image of the European Union today. Talk about timing, guess who

:00:27.:00:32.

demands a 5% increase in its budget, yes, it is the European Commission.

:00:32.:00:36.

This man is on the Home Office banned list, how come the Border

:00:36.:00:39.

Agency let him in and then let him slip again.

:00:39.:00:45.

On the banks of the Clyde, they are about to pass judgment on the

:00:45.:00:47.

Labour Party. Even if Ed Miliband's party does

:00:47.:00:53.

scrape home here tomorrow, it doesn't mean an end to Labour's

:00:53.:00:57.

serious problems here in Scotland, following the trouncing by the SNP

:00:57.:01:03.

in the Holyrood elections last month.

:01:03.:01:06.

You what?! You don't agree with that?

:01:06.:01:10.

Is the home advantage in sport really just testimony to the power

:01:10.:01:20.
:01:20.:01:25.

Greece's politicians have to vote again tomorrow for the terms of the

:01:25.:01:29.

loans they have taken to be satisfied. And then that's only the

:01:29.:01:33.

start of the austerity programme demanded. But the first hurdle has

:01:34.:01:37.

been cleared, and the likelihood that Greece will simply trouser the

:01:37.:01:41.

bailout it has already had, and leap out of the euro has receded a

:01:42.:01:45.

bit. To judge from the scenes on the streets today, there is a very

:01:45.:01:50.

long way yet to go. First, let's hear Paul Mason's

:01:50.:01:55.

report from Athens. They knew it would be a day to

:01:55.:02:01.

remember. The end of an economic era, the moment when street protest

:02:01.:02:07.

meets the cold reality of parliamentary votes. The communist-

:02:07.:02:13.

led trade union came on in the same old way, but into a world where the

:02:13.:02:20.

old certainties are vanishing. Rights which have been there in the

:02:20.:02:26.

last 40 years will vanish overnight. In the private sector, collective

:02:27.:02:31.

bargaining agreements will be wiped out, the taxation is already at an

:02:31.:02:35.

incredible level. It will be serial destitution, basically.

:02:35.:02:40.

Soon, there were thousands in the square that fronts the parliament,

:02:40.:02:45.

waiting for the crucial vote. As the vote came, tension rose. And

:02:45.:02:55.
:02:55.:02:58.

then this. What had been a peaceful protest would not turn violent. And

:02:58.:03:06.

thousands of people fled. We make no money, they always increase the

:03:06.:03:13.

taxes, they selling the country to the bankers. In this building, the

:03:13.:03:18.

Greek parliament, and they have the Greek police, paid by the Greek

:03:18.:03:22.

people, to help them sell the country to the bankers.

:03:22.:03:27.

In the square, thousands of people stayed, and fought, and the

:03:27.:03:37.
:03:37.:03:39.

fighting became intense. Inside the parliament, Prime

:03:39.:03:46.

Minister Papandreou still fighting for a majority that has become

:03:46.:03:49.

wafer thin, and issued this warning. TRANSLATION: The Greek people might

:03:49.:03:54.

go through a hard time and they are experiencing a hard time, but the

:03:54.:03:56.

Greek people don't want this Government or programme to fail, if

:03:56.:04:01.

this happens, Greece will fail. But in the small streets outside

:04:01.:04:06.

were tens of thousands of protestors had been coralled, amid

:04:06.:04:12.

the tear ga, the mood was different. - tear gas, the mood was different.

:04:12.:04:18.

Can Greece take the pain? As in practically, I mean, look around,

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man, look around. Absolutely not. It is very deep down. I mean the

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economy is deep down, it is demolished. It is a dictatorship

:04:30.:04:33.

afterall, we have had dictatorships before. One. It is a democracy,

:04:33.:04:38.

they have all been voted for, why a dictatorship, all these

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politicians? Come on you are being so rhetoric. This is not a

:04:41.:04:45.

democracy. We will not stop. don't stop. No, they must stop. The

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Government must stop. How will you make them stop? With strikes and

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demonstrations, everything. With the squares. We will come here,

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we will not stop. What's happening? But the violence wasn't stopping

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either. For many here the legitimacy of the whole political

:05:03.:05:08.

system is now at stake. Are you a British station. OK, there is a

:05:08.:05:12.

group of riot police coming down, they are spraying us with chemicals,

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we are peaceful, if anything, we just want this Government, this

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fascist Government to get out of the way.

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As the fighting spread into the side streets, just yards away,

:05:25.:05:34.

people gathered in the cafes, to watch the austerity vote go through.

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Vote passed, 155 for, 138 against. But outside, there are millions

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against. Not just the left, but the middle-classes, who are supposed to

:05:44.:05:53.
:05:54.:05:54.

be the backbone of Greek democracy. And so, 3.50pm, typical Greek cafe,

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people watching the vote. On split screen, the riot. Just behind us

:05:59.:06:07.

the riot is happening. This is the image of the European Union today.

:06:07.:06:13.

Official reports say 47 people have been hospitalised, 29 arrested, 192

:06:13.:06:17.

treated for breathing problems. The biggest casualty is consent. In no

:06:17.:06:22.

European country is the gap between politicians and the people so

:06:22.:06:31.

obvious, widespread, and bitter. Paul Mason joins us now live from

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Athens. What is happening? Well, there is supported addic rioting

:06:37.:06:45.

still going on. - sporadic rioting still going on. Not a single

:06:45.:06:49.

politician of any note can leave their own secure accommodation to

:06:49.:06:54.

come and join us. It is a little bit chaotic. The key thing is, the

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austerity package has been passed by the parliament. It is no longer

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a maybe, it is a fact. Tomorrow the parliament will pass the execution

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law that will turn this into a series of actions, for individual

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ministries, if you have lent Greece money, or if your pension fund has,

:07:10.:07:14.

or your country, that is the good news. The bad news is, it has been

:07:14.:07:18.

passed in the teeth of such viscerally felt anger. Come on,

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Paul, it was hardly the entire population of Athens on the streets,

:07:22.:07:26.

was it, and certainly not the entire population of Greece. But if

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people are, as you say, in such numbers losing faith, where does

:07:30.:07:37.

that lead? There are a lot of people out, the worry is, as you

:07:37.:07:42.

saw in my report, if you are worrying about strategic issues, it

:07:42.:07:46.

is losing the middle-class, it is losing the people who are the small

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shop owner, in a lot of peripheral Europe the pain will be felt by the

:07:51.:07:55.

public sector, and you know, pensioners. Here pain is being felt

:07:55.:07:59.

by small business people, and they just don't feel that either their

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voices are being heard, or that they can take it. I put this to one

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of my contact, one of the key political commentators in this

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country. Are we seeing n this loss of faith, some kind of a threat to

:08:14.:08:18.

democracy? No, I don't think so that democracy

:08:18.:08:26.

is threatened. Mob rule is a different thing. Until now in

:08:26.:08:31.

Greece, it happens in a non-nasty way. If things turn nasty, if you

:08:31.:08:41.

have mob rule, if you have people who are petty bourgwoi, or who are

:08:41.:08:48.

barely - borgoise, or barely near the poverty line, and they get

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furious, nobody has ever seen this play acted out, they have seen it

:08:55.:08:59.

in Germany of the 20 and 30s. is your assessment, do you think

:09:00.:09:05.

they will make the plan stick? There is two parts of the answer

:09:05.:09:11.

there. The first question is, can the plan, as envisaged, actually be

:09:11.:09:15.

implemented. Greece has all kinds of checks and balances, whether it

:09:15.:09:19.

is the unions, talking about privatising the airport, or the

:09:19.:09:22.

railways or the energy companies, the energy company is on strike.

:09:22.:09:26.

Who will buy it, who will buy it with a work force like that. All

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week I have been here, the words of the original boss of Fiat, in 1919

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have been going round my head. He said, in the face of resistance

:09:36.:09:40.

like this, you can't build anything with 25,000 enemies, speaking of

:09:40.:09:43.

the Fiat work force. How are you going to build anything, how are

:09:43.:09:46.

you going to do anything in a country where so many people are up

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in arms against what you are doing. That's the first problem. The

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second problem is does it dig Greece out of the mire to do it?

:09:55.:10:01.

Many economists believe it doesn't. Has the euro, briefly, has the euro

:10:01.:10:08.

been saved? For day, yes. For a week, probably. But the question

:10:08.:10:15.

remains, Greece is 2.5% of the euro zone's GDP, how did a country so

:10:16.:10:20.

small get the currency in such a big mess. The question has to go

:10:20.:10:24.

back to the people who run the eurozone, you tell me who that is,

:10:24.:10:30.

who we ask that question of. People here ask it. They just r just say,

:10:30.:10:34.

look, the eurozone would not be in such trouble if we had decisive

:10:34.:10:40.

leadership and some idea of what the plan is to dig Greece, nearly

:10:40.:10:45.

bankrupt, at the best of times, out of this hole. We still don't really

:10:45.:10:50.

have that. The pain in Greece is extreme

:10:50.:10:53.

example of the discomfort being felt right across most of Europe,

:10:53.:10:57.

there is one place they feel no pain at all, the European

:10:57.:11:00.

Commission announced today that it badly needs, not to make economies,

:11:00.:11:08.

but to be given much more money. Lots of it, 115 billion euros over

:11:08.:11:12.

seven years, that is about another 5% or so after inflation. They also

:11:12.:11:17.

announced a radical reshaping of the rebate system, including the

:11:17.:11:20.

much fought over British rebate. The commission also set out plans

:11:21.:11:26.

for the raising of so-called own resources, or EU taxes, levied on

:11:26.:11:30.

things like financial transactions or an EU VAT. Speaking about the

:11:30.:11:34.

rebate system today, the commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso,

:11:35.:11:39.

stressed that the EU was founded on sal darity, which meant -

:11:39.:11:43.

solidarity, which meant richer member states would accept paying

:11:43.:11:47.

for more the good of those in the union who were less well off.

:11:47.:11:50.

TRANSLATION: We will suggest a system that is far easier to

:11:50.:11:52.

understand, fairer, more transparent, in the new system

:11:52.:11:56.

there is no room for thinking about getting your fair share of your

:11:56.:12:01.

money back. Solidarity implies that those relatively more wealthy and

:12:01.:12:06.

prosperous, will contribute more in relative terms. We asked the

:12:06.:12:09.

European Commission for an interview, they were much too

:12:09.:12:18.

businessy. But we are lucky enough to be joined by the Conservative MP,

:12:18.:12:23.

George Eustace, and another European MP. Is this some sort of

:12:23.:12:28.

jock? No, it is a proposal on how we think we should have money until

:12:28.:12:32.

2020, it is not a joke, it is a serious proposal. At a time when

:12:32.:12:36.

every other Government in Europe is cutting expenditure? Yes, but let

:12:36.:12:40.

me be very frank, at the same time this is a budget that is looking

:12:40.:12:45.

for the future, we are looking at a 2020 target. Where do we want to be

:12:45.:12:48.

as Europe as a whole. Do we want a strong Europe there, acting

:12:48.:12:51.

together, or do we want to have special, all the different

:12:51.:12:56.

countries, like the UK, the Netherland, whatever, and be on our

:12:56.:13:00.

own in the world. That is the big question, and where do we want to

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go until 2020, this is the proposal that is looking for the longer term.

:13:03.:13:06.

We are not discussing tomorrow, we are discussing the day after

:13:06.:13:15.

tomorrow. This is serious business. A nobble ambition? I think the

:13:15.:13:17.

European Commission is just in complete denial about the whole

:13:17.:13:21.

pickle that the EU and the eurozone in particular is in at the moment.

:13:21.:13:26.

I just don't think this will happen, Britain does have a veto on this, I

:13:26.:13:29.

would be absolutely amazed if we were to accept a long-term budget

:13:29.:13:33.

like this, at such an increase. France and Germany are saying that

:13:33.:13:36.

this is also unacceptable. We are at the point now where really

:13:36.:13:42.

things have moved beyond where the commission think it has, nation

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states are increasingly restless about the problems we see in the

:13:48.:13:53.

eurozone and and the things that go on. Will the proposal that the EU

:13:53.:13:57.

will be able to levy its own taxes get anywhere? That particular

:13:57.:14:02.

proposal, thanks to the legislation that this Government has brought in

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would trigger a referendum in Britain. Unless the British people

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vote for a referendum to vote for Brussels to set taxs in the UK,

:14:09.:14:12.

that won't get through either. I don't think the UK Government would

:14:12.:14:22.
:14:22.:14:23.

accept that. I think the tide was turned for those who want deeper

:14:23.:14:31.

integration. You explain that this is an ambition over a noble period.

:14:31.:14:36.

But the EU will have 13 years of continuous, real terms, budget

:14:36.:14:39.

increases. You can't really believe the people of Europe are going to

:14:39.:14:48.

put up with that? It depends where you pay the money for. Let me start

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by saying that the budget for the EU, the increase over the last few

:14:52.:14:57.

years by 30%, for the other member states it is an average of 60%.

:14:57.:15:01.

That is puting it into perspective. Where do we spend the money? If you

:15:01.:15:05.

ask all the member states, Europe has to do more on energy, as far as

:15:05.:15:08.

I remember this Conservative Government is claiming that they

:15:08.:15:14.

are the greenest Government ever. Well, excuse me, you need a lot of

:15:14.:15:18.

infrastructure if you want to have your renewables. Who will pay for

:15:18.:15:21.

the infrastructure where you can connect all the different member

:15:21.:15:25.

states of the EU, it has to be by European money. That is one.

:15:26.:15:32.

Secondly, we need for moreen policy, look at what is going on in Libya -

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for moreen policy, look at what is going on in Benghazi, we are

:15:38.:15:45.

opening an office in Libya. Looking at the bank crisis, the crisis in

:15:45.:15:49.

Europe, the crisis in Greece, it started with an economic crisis in

:15:49.:15:56.

the banking system. So now, we want to have a better supervision. Who

:15:56.:16:00.

will pay this supervision, because if European supervise, they have to

:16:00.:16:04.

be paid from a European budget. They are all topics where everyone

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is claiming more money. Excuse me t has to come from somewhere. Perhaps

:16:08.:16:10.

I can explain, the answer to this question is the European Union

:16:11.:16:15.

should not be spending that money. All the issues that he has just

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outlined are issues where nation states should be taking the lead,

:16:18.:16:22.

whether it is dealing with the banking industry or promoting green

:16:22.:16:26.

energy. These are all areas where increasingly we need national

:16:26.:16:29.

Governments to take the lead. Yes to co-operate and co-ordinate.

:16:29.:16:34.

the national Governments: The EU is failing institutions, it has been

:16:34.:16:40.

failing for far too long. It may have a future in the 2 1st century

:16:40.:16:44.

t needs to be streamlined? Come on? I always hear from the

:16:45.:16:48.

Conservatives that the EU has failed. But at the same time they

:16:48.:16:51.

are asking for more renewables, how do they transport, that how do we

:16:52.:16:57.

want to get it from Norway or the Netherlands or the North Sea wind

:16:57.:17:02.

energy of course the EU has failed, why on banking systems. You can

:17:02.:17:04.

have 27 member states controlling their own banks, they have been

:17:04.:17:07.

doing that for years, what has failed is the banking control

:17:07.:17:12.

system. Now we want to do that at a European level. You want a

:17:12.:17:17.

financial transactions tax as well in the EU? I think all the people

:17:18.:17:22.

want that banks are starting to pay for all the rubbish that they have

:17:22.:17:28.

been spreading around so far. pay the EU? And there again. Let me

:17:28.:17:34.

be very clear, all the banks are operating all over Europe, UK banks

:17:34.:17:38.

are in Greece, vested a long time ago. If you look at all the -

:17:38.:17:43.

invested a long time ago. If you look at all the banks, they are

:17:43.:17:52.

across the borders and European wide. Let's let you defend British

:17:52.:17:55.

banks? For years what has gone on is the European Union has used its

:17:55.:18:00.

own failure as a reason for having further, deeper integration and for

:18:00.:18:05.

the EU to have even more powers. What people increasingly are

:18:05.:18:08.

realising and national parliaments across the EU are realising, that

:18:08.:18:13.

the answer is not to take more power but to take the powers away

:18:13.:18:17.

from it, and to streamline it. To have it do fewer things and let it

:18:17.:18:20.

do those better. And let nation states take responsibilities, there

:18:20.:18:25.

is no need for the EU to be in certain areas skpwr. Do you think

:18:25.:18:31.

it is necessary to have an 8 - you think it is right to have an

:18:31.:18:35.

85% increase in the entertainment budget for the European Parliament?

:18:35.:18:39.

This is a proposal by the commission. I want to talk about

:18:39.:18:42.

big number, if, as with the Conservatives, we have a deal,

:18:42.:18:45.

there is another increase in research going into nuclear fusion,

:18:45.:18:50.

it is in total 2.7 billion, OK, as a green politician, I'm very much

:18:50.:18:54.

against that, can I negotiate with the Conservatives to have a cut

:18:55.:18:58.

over there? There is also increased spending on space policies, because,

:18:58.:19:02.

the member states are asking the EU to invest in space policy, I am

:19:02.:19:08.

ready to negotiate a cut over there. I'm not saying I'm defending

:19:08.:19:12.

everything. I want to discuss cuts, let me be frank, if we are

:19:12.:19:16.

discussing what we are paying for the European Parliament and the

:19:16.:19:20.

exact numbers there, it is all tiny numbers if you compare it to

:19:20.:19:25.

nuclear fusion, to space relations. There I want to discuss the cuts.

:19:25.:19:29.

The way to cut the spending is for the EU not to be involved in these

:19:29.:19:32.

areas and let nation states take their own lead.

:19:32.:19:36.

Thank you very much.? The UK Border Agency better have a good story to

:19:36.:19:40.

tell, some how they managed to let into this country man who was

:19:41.:19:45.

banned. He didn't sneak in, he arrived under his own name, and his

:19:45.:19:48.

visit announced in advance. He sauntered through immigration

:19:48.:19:51.

control, and went on to address public meetings, before, eventually,

:19:51.:19:55.

the police caught up with him and sent him to the detention centre

:19:55.:20:02.

where he's tonight. The stable door has finally been bolted. We have

:20:02.:20:11.

been on the trail of cleric Sheikh Raed Salah, he entered the UK with

:20:11.:20:17.

consumate ease, despite the Home Office having banned him. Opponents

:20:17.:20:22.

claim Sheikh Raed Salah is a supporter of Hamas, holds anti-

:20:22.:20:26.

semetic views, he denies this. He's a leader of the Islamic movement in

:20:26.:20:36.
:20:36.:20:41.

Israel. He is said to have This is man with a proven track

:20:41.:20:45.

record, he's widely reported in the Israeli and international press for

:20:45.:20:49.

making a series of anti-semetic statements. Last month he did five

:20:49.:20:53.

months in prison for assaulting a police officer. Obviously he has

:20:53.:21:03.

not taken up Gandhi's methods of non-violent resistance.

:21:03.:21:07.

There is a cross-party agency that advises the UK Border Agency about

:21:07.:21:11.

foreign nationals coming to Britain. Last week the Home Secretary was

:21:11.:21:15.

advised to ban him. Three days later the Home Secretary signed the

:21:15.:21:20.

banning order, two days after that Salah arrived at Heathrow. Once the

:21:20.:21:23.

Home Secretary had decided to exclude Salah, the UK Border Agency

:21:23.:21:26.

should have passed on information to immigration officers here at

:21:26.:21:30.

Heathrow, and to consulate staff in Israel. Apparently this didn't

:21:30.:21:35.

happen in time. So on Saturday Salah simply turned up at Heathrow

:21:35.:21:36.

and walked through immigration control.

:21:36.:21:41.

He had meetings lined up with three parliamentarians and a public

:21:41.:21:46.

engagement, talking about the Arab Spring, at this venue in the

:21:46.:21:51.

capital. Sheikh Raed Salah finally arrived here at the Conwy Hall on

:21:51.:21:57.

Monday for a prearranged talk. Unknown to him, these premises were

:21:57.:22:01.

watch bid the met police. Iran sponsored TV was there covering the

:22:01.:22:06.

event. In all likelihood police surveillance officers were in the

:22:06.:22:10.

audience, there were no arrests. There are conflicting reports about

:22:10.:22:13.

why not. There were discussions about legality because the Home

:22:13.:22:17.

Secretary's order had not been served, but Government sources say

:22:17.:22:20.

it is a police mistake. There are all strange stories about what

:22:20.:22:24.

happened on the night. It was clear he was quite open, and the

:22:24.:22:28.

organisers were open about having him here, and were proud to show he

:22:28.:22:32.

was here. That concerned us, that actually on an operational level

:22:32.:22:37.

there are issues that need to be tightened up. He was free to go on

:22:37.:22:40.

to the next stage of his journey. This time heading north from London

:22:40.:22:45.

to Leicester for a prearranged meeting. Last night addressed an

:22:45.:22:52.

audience of 1,000 in Leicester. Finally at 11.00pm he was arrested

:22:52.:22:59.

and taken to Paddington Green station. His legal advisers today

:22:59.:23:06.

said to deport such an important Palestinian protestor was against

:23:06.:23:10.

the principles of democracy. A lot of this was unnecessary, if Sheikh

:23:10.:23:14.

Raed Salah was on an exclusion list, this should have been made known to

:23:14.:23:17.

him some time ago, it would have given him the opportunity tole cha

:23:17.:23:21.

eng it, and find out why he was on the - challenge it, and find out

:23:21.:23:26.

why he was on the list, no reason has been given to him about why

:23:26.:23:32.

he's on the banned list, of people deemed not conducive to the public

:23:32.:23:37.

benefit. This is not the first time someone of this type has slipped

:23:37.:23:42.

through the immigration net. We were told of this desperate-

:23:42.:23:52.
:23:52.:23:57.

sounding e-mail from a Government It is a specific concern when

:23:57.:24:03.

someone turns up at Heathrow, the major treent point of the UK, and

:24:03.:24:09.

the UK Border Agency seem unable to stop someone the Home Office says

:24:09.:24:13.

is unwelcome. We need to wait a while to find out exactly what went

:24:13.:24:16.

wrong, it is of grave concern that the Government agency, tasked by

:24:17.:24:20.

the Government, and the Home Secretary specifically, to turn

:24:20.:24:26.

around undesirables is unable to do this. The UK BA are going on strike

:24:26.:24:30.

tomorrow F it is the case that you can have radical preachers like

:24:30.:24:33.

this, entering the country, after the Home Office has made very clear

:24:33.:24:37.

they shouldn't be entering the country. It does beg the question

:24:37.:24:41.

as to who else has been let into the country. The Home Office has

:24:41.:24:47.

laufplged an internal inquiry into - launched an internal inquiry into

:24:47.:24:52.

the Salah case. It was thought the message about Sheikh Raed Salah's

:24:52.:24:58.

status was passed through the communecation lines in good time. -

:24:58.:25:03.

communecation lines in good time. We asked the UK Border Agency to

:25:03.:25:13.
:25:13.:25:14.

talk to us but they had other plans. What happens when these people turn

:25:14.:25:18.

up and the Border Agency say enjoy your stay? I would say this was a

:25:18.:25:23.

scene from the Pink Panther, if I was being uncharitable. Once the

:25:23.:25:26.

Home Secretary reach as banning order, those papers should be

:25:26.:25:29.

served on the person. Because we are very clear the Government

:25:29.:25:33.

believes in secure borders this man should never have entered the UK.

:25:33.:25:38.

What I think has happened, and this is only anecdotal, is that the name

:25:38.:25:43.

did not come up on the computer system, and what UK Border Agency

:25:43.:25:48.

staff have said is they are actually given pieces of paper to

:25:48.:25:51.

remember people's names as they walk through. Anyone who comes

:25:51.:25:54.

through at Heathrow will know there are thousands upon thousands of

:25:54.:25:58.

people coming through. If indeed the computer system does not flag

:25:58.:26:02.

up the name, that is why he has entered into the country, and

:26:02.:26:06.

goodness knows how many other people, who we are wanting to be

:26:06.:26:10.

cautious about, who are on that list, the watch list, have entered

:26:10.:26:13.

as well. The Home Secretary is quite right to have an inquiry, she

:26:13.:26:17.

must be hopping mad about this. She would have expected her own agency

:26:17.:26:21.

to have followed her intructions. What has happened, he has arrived

:26:21.:26:26.

in this country, he has been to Birmingham, he has come to London,

:26:26.:26:29.

they publicised the fact he was going to be in the House of Commons

:26:29.:26:34.

today. Invite bid three of your colleagues? Indeed, he was invited

:26:34.:26:39.

by three colleagues. Three Labour Party colleagues? Nars for them, I

:26:39.:26:42.

have not invited them - that is a matter for them, I have not invited

:26:42.:26:48.

them. Was that wise? You will have to ask them. Your own parliamentary

:26:48.:26:50.

colleagues, invite manning banned from this country to come into

:26:50.:26:55.

Westminster, to a- a man banned from this country to come into

:26:55.:26:58.

Westminster and address them? didn't know he was being banned,

:26:58.:27:02.

coming into the country. If it was publicised he was banned, I would

:27:02.:27:06.

understand why they had invited him. Nobody knew he was banned. He

:27:06.:27:10.

didn't know, the Israeli authorities didn't know, Heathrow

:27:10.:27:16.

Airport Airport didn't know, the Home Secretary must have known she

:27:16.:27:19.

signs the pieces of paper. I don't think you could hold the three

:27:19.:27:23.

Labour Party MPs responsible for a complete shambles. They are

:27:23.:27:27.

responsible for issuing the invitation, of course, the fact

:27:27.:27:31.

that the Home Secretary can remember the pieces of paper she

:27:31.:27:35.

signed but doesn't tell people what she has signed. Is that what

:27:35.:27:40.

happened, or is it some sort of computer malfunction. It is a bit

:27:40.:27:46.

of a shambles, I'm glad there will be an appearing before the select

:27:46.:27:49.

committee, and I will had an opportunity to probe hero bustly

:27:49.:27:53.

about the situation. The case has - her robustly about the situation.

:27:53.:27:58.

The case shows there are flaws in the system. We need to make sure

:27:58.:28:02.

the borders are secure, and when she signs an order it is

:28:02.:28:06.

implemented, and someone isn't allowed to travel to Birmingham, go

:28:06.:28:09.

to Leicester and travel to the House of Commons without being

:28:10.:28:12.

arrested. They are voting on the banks of the

:28:12.:28:15.

Clyde tomorrow, the constituency was once in the heart of Labour

:28:15.:28:21.

Scotland, the sort of place you could have stuck a red rosette on a

:28:21.:28:24.

wrought iron lampost and see it dug up and triumphantly carried to

:28:24.:28:28.

Westminster. After the Scots nationalists managed to win an

:28:28.:28:32.

overall majority in the Edinburgh parliament, nobody is so sure any

:28:32.:28:36.

more. By-elections are the time when politicians of all parties

:28:36.:28:43.

catch side of a stocky man with stockings and sandals and say, they

:28:43.:28:53.
:28:53.:29:00.

are sure that is Michael Crick, REPORTER: Mr Prescott? Oh blimey,

:29:00.:29:07.

what has brought you up here. I thought we were having a nice day.

:29:07.:29:12.

Five smiling expectant face, all hoping tomorrow sees their

:29:12.:29:17.

political breakthrough. They hope to add to their success in May.

:29:17.:29:22.

Sunbathing outside their HQ, they may have looked a touch relaxed.

:29:22.:29:26.

Working hard. You don't look like you have been working hard, you

:29:26.:29:30.

look like you are being very complacent? I'm sun burnt because I

:29:30.:29:36.

have been walking around. You are more sun burnt that his T-shirt. In

:29:36.:29:42.

the Clyde, on the firth of Clyde, is on the sunny day in the right

:29:42.:29:46.

spot, one of Labour's more attractive seats. The strong wind

:29:46.:29:50.

challenged the docking crew to the utmost, they succeeded with no more

:29:51.:29:59.

damage to the ship than a scrape of paint. It has a proud past in

:29:59.:30:03.

shipbuilding. Greenoch was where Cunard ships were refitted. Jobs

:30:03.:30:08.

are scarce now. This was one of 13 seats Labour managed to defend in

:30:08.:30:12.

May's Scottish elections. Their man, Ian MacKenzie, admits his party

:30:12.:30:16.

must change here, and stop taking people for granted. We didn't work

:30:16.:30:22.

as hard for their vote as we are doing now. Is it about how hard you

:30:22.:30:25.

work for the vote or is it about the policies? It is a mixture of

:30:25.:30:29.

both. You have to work hard for the vote and have the policies, and

:30:29.:30:36.

meet the people on the street. big challenger, in what's normally

:30:36.:30:40.

a solid Labour seat is Anne McLaughlin? We are getting a

:30:40.:30:43.

fantastic response, people think it is time for a change, and I think

:30:43.:30:48.

they are right. Are you saying you could nick this one? I don't know,

:30:48.:30:52.

definitely optimistic about it. Last night she was joined by Sheikh

:30:52.:30:58.

Raed Salah, making his fifth visit in a contest where independence

:30:58.:31:03.

doesn't feature in SNP literature. You don't mention independent

:31:03.:31:10.

anywhere in the leaflets? Everybody in the SNP knows we are the party

:31:10.:31:14.

of independence. Why not mention it in the leaflet, are you hoping

:31:14.:31:19.

Labour voters will forget you are for that? Labour voters do believe

:31:19.:31:24.

in independence, one the great tasks to persuade them to vote for

:31:24.:31:30.

the SNP. Why not mention it in the literature, this is a chance to win

:31:30.:31:32.

the referendum? The referendum will be in the campaign.

:31:32.:31:39.

The Tories have no hope at all, adding to their solitary Scottish

:31:39.:31:44.

MP, David Wilson has to say otherwise. The two big issues I

:31:44.:31:48.

have found is jobs and independence. As far as that people got a bit of

:31:48.:31:53.

a fright in May with what happened with SNP getting control in

:31:53.:31:56.

Holyrood, people are worried about that. I know people who voted SNP

:31:56.:32:00.

now who have come back to the Conservatives. The Liberal

:32:00.:32:04.

Democrats Sophie Bridger is 20, the youngest by-election candidate from

:32:04.:32:12.

a major party since 1832. But they won't suffer another humiliation

:32:12.:32:16.

like Barnsley, where they came sixth. Simply because there are

:32:16.:32:21.

only five candidates here. We had a disappointing election, a few weeks

:32:21.:32:24.

ago, that is why it is a great opportunity for us. I don't think

:32:24.:32:27.

we managed to get the messages across in the election campaign,

:32:27.:32:29.

previously, what we are really doing in Government in Westminster.

:32:29.:32:32.

That is why this has been such a positive opportunity for to us show

:32:32.:32:37.

that. Hope to be overtake the Liberal

:32:37.:32:45.

Democrats, Mitch Sorbie, he looks like a nightclub owner. It is

:32:46.:32:50.

probably between Labour and the SNP? You might find people with

:32:50.:32:55.

sense voting UKIP. Let's forget that. Let's talk sense, shall we,

:32:55.:32:59.

if it is between Labour and the SNP, surely, who of those two would you

:32:59.:33:04.

say is the front runner here? have to look with 14,000 majority

:33:04.:33:12.

last time, Labour are fairly safe. If I had my spaniel with a Labour

:33:12.:33:19.

rosette, I think my spaniel might get in.

:33:19.:33:24.

We local shipyard, today, the final day of campaigning, Labour rolled

:33:24.:33:29.

out John Prescott. The party's answer to Sheikh Raed Salah.

:33:29.:33:39.
:33:39.:33:39.

Do you have a sneaking admiration for Sheikh Raed Salah, you and he

:33:39.:33:46.

are like - the party's answer to Alex Salmond. Do you have a

:33:46.:33:51.

sneaking admiration for Alex Salmond? Does Labour need its own

:33:51.:33:56.

Alex Salmond? Labour needs all to fight all sorts of battles. They

:33:56.:34:00.

have to persuasively put the case, I do it my way and they their way,

:34:00.:34:06.

Labour is a combination of all those. People in the Labour and SNP

:34:06.:34:09.

camp think tomorrow's result should be really close. It's likely to be

:34:10.:34:17.

a lot closer than the 14,400 majority bequeathed by the late

:34:17.:34:22.

Labour MP, David Cairns. Even if Ed Miliband's party does crepe home

:34:22.:34:26.

here tomorrow, it doesn't mean an end to Labour's serious problems

:34:26.:34:31.

here in Scotland. Following the trouncing by the SNP, in the

:34:31.:34:38.

Holyrood elections, last month. You what? You don't agree with any

:34:38.:34:45.

of that? I didn't hear it! Andy Murray went through to the

:34:45.:34:48.

semifinals at Wimbledon to the delight of fans. They are providing

:34:48.:34:52.

a rare treat of what counts as a home win. In team sports in

:34:52.:34:55.

particular the advantage of playing at home is taken as read, in the

:34:55.:35:00.

Premier League, for example there are said to be three home wins for

:35:00.:35:03.

two away wins. What is the home advantage. The authors of

:35:03.:35:06.

Scorecasting, a new American book about sports, believe they have

:35:06.:35:12.

worked it out. It is no secret that steams are

:35:12.:35:16.

more likely to win on home turf. Take Chelsea they didn't suffer a

:35:16.:35:20.

single Premier League home defeat for over three years, under Jose

:35:20.:35:25.

Mourinho, but loss ten away games in the same period. And it's true

:35:25.:35:33.

for all team sport. Rugby, cricket, baseball, ice hockey, you name it,

:35:33.:35:37.

there is a definite home advantage. But what is it? Is it the support

:35:37.:35:42.

of the fans? Is it because the home team knows the ground? Is it

:35:42.:35:47.

because they don't have to make the journey to a distant venue. The two

:35:47.:35:51.

Americans say it is none of those things. They conclude that the home

:35:51.:35:56.

advantage is down to one thing and one thing only, the referees, or

:35:56.:36:00.

umpires, as they are known in most American sports. It is not so much

:36:00.:36:05.

that teams play much better at home, as that, for whatever reason,

:36:05.:36:12.

officials want to appease the home crowd. With us now is the sports

:36:12.:36:18.

journalist, Jon Wertheim, one of the authors of Scorecasting, and

:36:18.:36:25.

Prabal Rana, who rather - David Runciman, who rather doubts the

:36:25.:36:30.

methodology. Explain why you think it is the referee? Athletes perform

:36:30.:36:34.

better at home because they are being cheered, that is hard to bear

:36:34.:36:39.

out, there is no evidence that they shoot baskets better. There is very

:36:39.:36:43.

little evidence of performing better at home. What we did find is

:36:43.:36:47.

with officials there is a huge discrepancy, home versus away calls,

:36:48.:36:51.

the bigger the crowd the bigger the discrepancy. It is true in all

:36:51.:36:56.

sports. The closer the game, the closer the discrepancy and the

:36:56.:37:00.

closer the fans are to the action. It is a different data. The

:37:00.:37:06.

official bias is driving the home advantage. You think what happens

:37:06.:37:11.

when Manchester United plays at home, there is something in it?

:37:11.:37:15.

tend to overlook the cases when the referees make a bad decision. They

:37:15.:37:19.

favour the big teams. What is weird about home advantage it is true for

:37:19.:37:27.

all teams, good, bad teams, big and small teams. John has shown

:37:27.:37:32.

referees react to crowds getting on their back. Play in one of the

:37:32.:37:35.

lower Scottish leison your team will do better at home. There is an

:37:35.:37:40.

iron law, it is to do with team not individual sports. My feeling is it

:37:40.:37:45.

is to do with the trust in the team. The referees have a small part to

:37:45.:37:50.

play. Did you look at the possible explanations? We did, the distance

:37:50.:37:55.

travelled, that doesn't turnt out to be the case at all. It is an

:37:55.:38:00.

intriguing thesis, how can one quantify trust. That is pretty hard

:38:00.:38:05.

to study. The issue in a team sport, if you know the official also give

:38:05.:38:09.

you these calls, maybe that increases the trust. This is the

:38:09.:38:12.

method question, because there is a temptation to explain the things,

:38:12.:38:17.

because we can quantify them. There are some things about home

:38:17.:38:20.

advantage that just aren't quantifyable. If you rule those

:38:20.:38:23.

things out you overexplain some of the easier things. In individual

:38:23.:38:27.

sports you can break them down into nuggets and baseball is another

:38:27.:38:33.

example. Then you can get the explanations, football, for such a

:38:33.:38:38.

simple game is mind bobling complex when you break it down. Nobody has

:38:38.:38:43.

done that already. You have alluded toe the fact that this theory

:38:44.:38:49.

asupplies in team sports, not in individual sports. Doesn't that

:38:49.:38:53.

suggest to you there may be something about the idea of the

:38:53.:38:58.

relationship between the team and the fan that is may be at work?

:38:58.:39:02.

Their home games in individual sports, Andy Murray might play at

:39:02.:39:07.

Wimbledon and cheer, it is not a home game like Manchester United

:39:07.:39:17.

playing in their own stadium. another collective effort, where

:39:17.:39:23.

another team game playing mopgs fans? It is hard to study all those

:39:23.:39:26.

impacts. I agree with John, the fans isn't the explanation, it is

:39:26.:39:30.

very hard to measure that. But it could be that it is the familiarity

:39:30.:39:34.

thing, when you are at home, it is your territory, you feel

:39:34.:39:38.

comfortable. Actually, the fact that it applies for teams that

:39:38.:39:43.

don't have many fans as well as teams that have thousands of fans,

:39:43.:39:47.

suggest it is something to do with your ground, not your fans.

:39:47.:39:51.

looked at it as a percentage of capacity, not the number of fans.

:39:52.:39:56.

In Italy there were riots, so the football team played in an empty

:39:57.:40:01.

stadium, they wouldn't let the fans in, there was no crowd there, the

:40:01.:40:08.

official bias went down. The passing and the goals stayed

:40:08.:40:13.

constant. Home advantage disappeared when the crowds

:40:13.:40:20.

disappeared. That could be Italy! Not everything is explainable by

:40:20.:40:25.

statistical analysis. Then you won't write books! There is nearly

:40:25.:40:29.

other variabilitys, but the data on this in every sport there is this

:40:29.:40:33.

difference, there is a discrepancy in penalties and fouls in

:40:33.:40:37.

basketball. That tells us there is something going on. It is true, the

:40:37.:40:41.

referees are clearly biased, the question is that what decides what

:40:41.:40:48.

wins the game, he hasn't shown that. This sort of analysis is increase

:40:48.:40:52.

league common. For economics and a view of the world. That human

:40:52.:40:58.

behaviour is down to statistical analysis. What is wrong with it?

:40:58.:41:02.

You can go too far, what you can end up is looking for the

:41:02.:41:05.

explanation that is fit the numbers, that means you leave out all sorts

:41:05.:41:09.

of things, it doesn't mean we should trust our eyes but have a

:41:09.:41:13.

broader view that could explain things than what is logistically

:41:13.:41:18.

analysing. I will see it when I believe it. I think the other thing.

:41:18.:41:23.

He's essentially saying there are things beyond science? Absolutely.

:41:23.:41:27.

Beyond economics? I think in the last ten years between the Internet,

:41:27.:41:32.

I think we have had this prove live racial of data, it is foolish not

:41:32.:41:37.

to - proliferation of data, it is foolish not to look into it. It is

:41:37.:41:40.

wrong to assume it explains everything, it explains a lot more

:41:40.:41:50.
:41:50.:41:51.

than we thought, not everything. What are the other things that we

:41:51.:41:57.

ought to be fact torg in. Things like trust and team spirit, home

:41:57.:42:02.

advantage is an iron law, it is an amazing thing, home advantage,

:42:02.:42:09.

whoever they are, it applies. Something about being in a team is

:42:09.:42:13.

hard to explain it unless you are in one. In the US, the ultimate

:42:13.:42:18.

team sport is football. All these military analogies. American

:42:18.:42:26.

football. Sorry, American football, NFL, it doesn't have a high winning

:42:26.:42:31.

statistic, where as basketball can have a much more advantage? It is

:42:31.:42:36.

about a team sport, passing continuing sequences of play,

:42:36.:42:41.

sports like American football break down the sequences and the trust is

:42:41.:42:44.

dissipated. It is football, basketball, where the game flows.

:42:44.:42:49.

It is the game that is flow have team advantage. While you are both

:42:49.:42:53.

here, you are here specifically to go to Wimbledon, will Andy Murray

:42:53.:43:00.

take the home title? He's the home player.

:43:00.:43:04.

We will see what happens, he has two tough matches left. Thank you

:43:04.:43:14.
:43:14.:43:14.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 42 seconds

:43:14.:43:57.

both very much. Now tomorrow That's enough for now. Since we

:43:57.:44:01.

have been on air, Richard Burton has been in touch, he wanted to

:44:01.:44:06.

make clear he was due to speak rat a meeting in Westminster with

:44:06.:44:11.

Sheikh Raed Salah, - speaking at a meeting with Sheikh Raed Salah, but

:44:11.:44:16.

he wasn't involved with him. Tomorrow we have the most famous

:44:16.:44:26.
:44:26.:44:51.

person to come out of Dumfries, Pretty whily outside tonight with

:44:51.:44:55.

largely clear skies. Another day where the sun will shine in most

:44:55.:44:58.

places. There will also be a fair few showers to chase around.

:44:59.:45:03.

Particularly by the afternoon, across parts of north-east England.

:45:03.:45:06.

Intense downpours, east and South Yorkshire as well as Lincolnshire,

:45:06.:45:10.

with the risk of a flash of lightning and a rumble of thunder.

:45:10.:45:15.

The showers will be lighter and scattered across the south-east.

:45:15.:45:19.

The south west of England will see showers mostly in the morning, by

:45:19.:45:22.

the afternoon, many places here fine and bright with spells of

:45:22.:45:26.

sunshine. The same goes across Wales. Some showers in the morning,

:45:26.:45:31.

most places having a fine end to the day. Scattering of thours will

:45:31.:45:35.

come and go through Northern Ireland. Temperatures still likely

:45:35.:45:41.

to reach the high teens. Showers in Scotland, dying out in the Glasgow

:45:41.:45:46.

area. For eastern Scotland heavy showers for the afternoon. There is

:45:46.:45:51.

still a chance for showers on Friday, a dry and fine day.

:45:51.:45:54.

Temperature as degree or so higher. Still some cloud bubbling up

:45:54.:45:58.

through the day, still the small chance of a shower or two across

:45:58.:46:03.

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