04/08/2011 Newsnight

Sell, sell, sell, markets in freefall across the world. Huge

sell-offs tonight, in New York and earlier in London, and across the

continent. With the economies of Europe and the US on a knife-edge,

is there now a real danger of a second global slump. That is more

of the concern on the markets. How are we going to be able to avoid

the recession from taking place. Two men who control tens of

billions of pounds, and an eminent economist will tell us just how bad

this really is. Also tonight, torture, rape and

deliberate starvation, an exclusive undercover investigation by

Newsnight reveals evidence of the Ethiopian Government using millions

of international aid to punish their political opponents. We also

investigate allegations of human rights abuse.

They were beating me while I was being raped. I was bleeding. I

became unconscious when I saw my unborn baby.

I will be speaking to a senior Ethiopian diplomat. And is the

death penalty back on the agenda, as a cascade of e-petitions pings

into the Government's index, will the politicians really take any

notice. Just when we hoped it might get a little better, it got worse.

In fact, if the markets are to be believed, the west could even be

hurtling towards a second recession. There was carnage on trading room

floors around the world, as the markets went into freefall over

fears the eurozone debt crisis could spread. The Dow Jones plunged

by over 500 points tonight, in the biggest sell-off since the credit

crunch brought the global economy to its knees three years ago. In

the UK the picture wasn't much better, with the banks taking the

biggest hit. Lloyd's came off worst, losing 10% of its value in a single

day. (sound of knives being sharpened)

It wasn't supposed to be this hard on the markets, and it definitely

wasn't supposed to be the worst fall in London since the depths of

the recession. Could we be going back there. Behind the sudden

collapse was a fear that the world economy is on a knife-edge between

recovery and another global slump. In London, the FTSE was down 191

points, a drop of 3.4%, wiping �50 billion from the value of the top

companies. In Germany the DAX was sharply down. The Dow Jones tumbled

519 points, 4.3%, its worst one day performance since 2008. What is

particularly worrying about today's sell-off, is it came despite

attempts, costing billions of pounds by Brussels and Washington,

to try to convince the financial world, that actually overindetected

countries were sorting themselves out. And nagging doubt about that

on the markets, today turned into a full blown loss of confidence.

Sometimes there is nothing more disconcerting than reassurance.

have a credible package. Only two weeks ago the President of the

European Union was trumpetting a deal that was meant to contain the

crisis in the eurozone, at least for the summer. Today he was

warning that he was deeply concerned that the sovereign debt

crisis would spread beyond Europe. International investors are now so

worried about lending money to Spain, they are demanding interest

rates to buy its bonds, at more than 6%. To lend to Italy and buy

its bond, they want interest rates or yields of a similar amount. Some

bond dealers say when rates get above 6%, a country's debts become

unmanagable. The European Central Bank was put under massive pressure

to step in and start buying up the bond that is no-one else wants.

Today its president said it was buying bonds, but not the crucial

Italian and Spanish ones. The key for everything is Government ahead

of the curve, in both their fiscal policy, and their structural

reforms, and structural reforms are absolutely of the essence. I know

that they are here and there difficult, they might be

politically difficult in our democracies. They are paying off.

But the focus of traders' fears about the real economy has been

shifting from debt to growth. The US is now clearly slowing down.

Consumer spending virtually ground it halt, growing by 0.1%, compared

with 2.1% growth in the first quarter. The economy grew at an

annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter. Economists had forecast

growth of 1.8%. I think growth is the element of uncertainty that hit

the markets more recently. Up until now we have had the political

concerns, both in Europe and in the US. But the expectation was that we

are going through a relatively soft period in economic growth, and we

will be starting to see an uptake in the second half of the year.

More recently we have seen a disappointment in terms of economic

numbers. And if there is economic disappointment persisting, we could

be heading in a global second-dip recession, that will have adverse

impact. Now economists are starting to ask, once again, if it is the

right time to be imposing austerity, when the global economy looks so

weak. Economic austerity is not unlike personal austerity n a sense

it is far easier to do when you are feeling strong, rather than weak.

Austerity is all about cutting back on your outgoings, but, if you

don't have the economic growth, you don't have the income. Then you

won't have the tax receipts from all that economic activity, to try

to improve your financial position. In fact, it could even get worse.

If we are going to get better growth, the west needs the spending

power of the east. I think looking at the eurozone in the developed

world and more generally, there is clearly a lot of head winds from

highly indebted consumers seeing their wages fall, and growth cut.

The Governments also cutting back on the spending. But growth going

forward will be selling to increasingly wealthy consumers in

the emerging markets. There is a second knife-edge here, sorting out

Government finances now, may turn out to be at odds with getting the

global economy going again. Governments have to cut spending,

or raise tax, in order to prevent them losing their credit rating,

and having sovereign debt crisis. On the other hand f they cut too

much, or too soon, then they will suck demand out of their economies,

and possibly turning a slowdown into a slump.

So if we are to avoid a global recession, political leaders still

have to convince the markets their debt reduction plans are credible.

In one of the worst days in Wall Street's history, the markets

demonstrated just how little confidence they have about that.

With me now are two men who between them control tens of billions of

pounds across the global markets. From New York I'm joined by Peter

Schiff, CEO, and joining me here is Paul Griffiths.

First of all, Paul Griffiths, how concerned are you about what

happened today? We are very concerned. In terms of not only the

market reaction, but really the way out here. At the moment we are,

frankly, we are on a knife-edge. A little too hot, and a little too

cold and we could easily see a double dip. You predicted the

credit crunch last time round, how critical was today's drop in the

US? Pretty predictable. A lot of people who control money around the

world, were making bad bets on an economic recovery. But all the

stimulus and bailouts in the United States, didn't create a recovery,

it created debt advanced recovery. That exacerbated the fundamental

problems with the economy. The US is headed for a more severe

recession than the one we think we emerged from. I think we are in a

depression, the depression is interrupted by Government stimulus

that only sows the seeds for the next downturn. The markets are only

starting to - to come to grips with this. The stimulus is weakening the

underlying economy. We need higher interest rates and the Government

cutting back on spending. None of that will happen because the

politicians don't want the voters to taste that medicine, that is the

only way to cure this economy. Looking at the eurozone, was

Barroso right to issue such a strong warning? I think he was, I

don't control billions of dollars like the other two, I'm trying to

make sense of what is happening. There is a collision of two factors

going on here, on the one hand, as you just heard, you have the world

waking up to the fact that there is a process of so-called deleveraging

going on. That the economies and companies and banks still need to

cut debts, so do households, that process will be brutal and slow.

Anyone who was looking for a quick recovery was basically in cloud-

cuckoo-land. Secondly, that realisation of colliding with the

fact that the problems in the eurozone, in particular, have not

been solved, and the question of whether the eurozone can hang

together or not, is absolutely at the forefront of investors' minds

at the moment. That is a nasty cocktail, particularly in August,

when markets are slow, and trading is suffering from the curse of

August when prices tend to shoot all over the place. One of the

ironies is, if, if, Europe could operate in a cohesive fashion, it

is probably in a stronger position than the US. Frankly, we don't see

very much chance of that. Why, structurally you don't think the

euro was set up to handle a crisis like this? It wasn't. Structurally

the euro is a collection, as we know, of nation states, and clearly

with monetary on the one hand, but no fiscal or political union on the

other, this sort of cry sifs in the mix at some - crisis was in the mix

at some point. Looking at the crisis today, Italy and Spain, we

have the second time coming back from holiday in Spain. What will

happen there? It feels like the banking crisis of 2007/208900 -

2008, where the markets are swinging from one way to the next.

Investors have woken up to the fact that they can't assume all the

countries will get bailed out continuously. There will be

restructuring. Now they have crossed the psychological rub con,

they can't actually tell who is next. If people are looking at

Italy and Spain saying help, how do we know they are different from

Greece. Is this about confidence as much as anything else? It is, but,

of course, so far we are only talking about the west, we are only

talking about developed market economies, investors have another

choice, they can invest elsewhere, emerging markets, Latin America,

Asia, there are opportunities. there safe havens for investors?

You want to invest with the creditor, in the nation that is are

producing all the goods the west is consuming. They are the ones that

have viable economies. They don't need us. In fact, having to

subsidise the American consumer is actually undermining the Chinese

economy and other emerging markets. To the extent they allow their

currency to appreciate, they can consume their own production, and

leave the rest of the world to twist in the wind. That will happen.

I agree the problems in Europe are bad, they are more severe in the

United States. The twisting in the wind has big consequences? If you

advise all Uruguays to invest in emerging markets? We do, we

recognise there is opportunity, clearly whether you are looking at

QE-2 or 3. Quantitative easing? printing of money, sorry, that

liquidity of money where is it going, to overseas and emerging

markets. Is that sustainable? I think to my mind, one of the

signs to which investors are panicked, it those not putting

money into emerging markets are scrambling for anything they think

as safe. Not only are you seeing gold and the yen going up. One of

the fascinating things on the front of the second section tomorrow, is

the bank of New York is paying negative interest rates to

depositors, people who want to put their money with that bank now

because they think it is safe, they will have to pay a fee. There is a

scramble to put cash where they think it is safe. They think it is

safe because it is too big to fail. That is the problem. You have moral

has standards with banks that are structurally unsound. If the Fed

does the right thing, every bank bailed out will fail. That is one

of the problems. That is why our Central Bank is keeping interest

rates so low. It is propping up the financial sector and the US

Government. If you think Greece has a problem paying its debts, imagine

what will happen to the US Government when our interest rates

spike up. That is another credit crunch? I would say right now you

have again, things turning negative. This is unchartered territory, it

is a sign of just how many dislocations there still are in the

system that need to be worked out. They have to get growth, we have to

get out in order to get out of it, where will it come from? In the

west, that's a very challenging question. Frankly, you can have a

bit of, add a little bit to the mix in terms of some policy stimulus,

maybe reduce taxation, but it is very unclear where growth is coming

from in the west. Can you force investment? We could get to the

point where, whether it be in economies which are receiving too

much influence, put on some form of capital controls, or in the west we

start to see capital controls to see money flowing out, I don't see

that as a crazy scenario. We are not going to have growth in the

United States at all, we will have inflation, but not genuine growth,

that comes from the market. That comes from private entrepeneurs,

from business investment, but we can't do that, the Government in

the United States is undermining our economy with regulations and

taxation and barrowing, - borrowing that is stifleing economic growth,

and sucking all the capital out of the private sector and spending it.

You are absolutely right. And mentioned the key word, inflation,

in the western economies we are living with, whether the US, the UK

or significant chungs of Europe we have overly - chunkss of Europe

have overly inflated inflation. I think it is tough and a lot of

people are looking to emerging markets for global demand. Although

the economies are slowing down and sluggish, they haven't fallen off

the cliff yet. With the markets gyrating wildly in the thin trading

of August, the fact of the matter is the economies right now are

bumping along the bottom, they are not off the cliff. Certainly it

will be tough going forward. don't need more demand, we need

more sue ply, we need to - supply, we need to make more stuff. In the

east they are making more stuff, they don't have to export what they

give to us, what is missing in the west is real production, we need

more manufacturing, we need to make some stuff, we can't do that, so we

rely on the Asian economy to supply us with all the merchandise we

don't produce ourselves. We have to borrow the money to do it. The

countries financing us are having problems because they have to

create so much inflation in their own countries to prop up the dollar.

Just before we finish. Bringing it back to Europe. What does the

eurozone have to do, as Gillian says, will it be one crisis in one

country one day or one the next? have moved on from, that the

contamination effect we have talked about for so many months is with us,

we need to see a coherent European solution. Frankly, though, I don't

think it will happen any time soon. Are you as pessimistic? The problem

is the politics. The problem is the politics, absolutely. The solution.

One thing very clear from 2008 is sticky plaster solutions don't work.

They tried it with the banks it failed, and with the eurozone t

failed. Europe will have to choose, either it pulls together in a union

and finds a common solution, or some element of the eurozone will

break apart. The best solution for Europe and the euro is to let the

countries that can't pay their bills default, let them restructure,

there shouldn't be a bailouts, this shouldn't sacrifice the euro, they

should force the people who recklessly loaned money to

Governments to lose money. That will not happen, politically there

is a long way to go. That is the problem. That is the problem, they

will create a moral has standard which ultimately will doom the euro,

before the euro dies, the dollar will die first, our problems are

more acute, Europe's problems are for tomorrow, America's are for

today. International attention is focused

on the crisis in the Horn of Africa in an emergency appeal to save

millions from starvation, apart from this country, countries like

Ethiopia are given hundreds to pull them out of - hundreds of millions

to pull them out of poverty. We look at allegation that is this

money is being misused, that the Ethiopian Government suesing it as

a weapon against the opposition, married with systematic torture and

rape, to cow the population. The Horn of Africa, a humanitarian

crisis on an unprecedented scale. Every day thousands of refugees are

fleeing to northern Kenya from Somalia and Ethiopia. Walking miles

to escape drought and familiar anyone, children, the old and sick,

are dying. It is images like these that have

prompted the international community to pour millions in

emergency aid into the region. But this in itself is a drop in the

ocean. Separately every year up to $3 billion in long-term development

aid is given to Ethiopia alone. In this special report, by Newsnight

and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, we expose evidence that

the west has turned a blind eye to systematic human rights abuses in

had Ethiopia. I have given up on the west. I do

not believe that the west is interested in democracy and the

rule of law and human rights. In the third world.

We reveal evidence of how aid is being used as a weapon of

oppression. Propping up the Government of Meles Zenawi.

Development is only available to those people who support the regime,

or who vote for the ruling party. The rebels began pushing in through

the suburbs at 4.00am this morning. Meles Zenawi came to power after

ousting the military regime in 1991. The priority will be to ensure law

and order. But the crunch came in the elections of 2005. A brutal

crackdown. 193 civilians died, tens of thousands were detained. He

remained a friend of the west. And allegations of human rights abuses

continued to this day. In 2007, the Ethiopian army launched a counter

insurgency campaign. Human Rights Watch and the American Association

for the Advancement of Science, produced before and after satellite

images of villages razez to the ground. Allegations that Ethiopian

troops were forcibly displacing entire rural communities,

destroying dozens of villages. The media and most aid agencies are

banned from the region. We decided to find out what is happening now

by talking to those who have recently fled to the refugee camps

of northern Kenya. This is the largest refugee camp in

the world. More than 400,000 people live here. It is a sprawling

refugee city. The vast majority are from Somalia. Thousands are

arriving on a daily basis, escaping the drought and familiar anyone.

Ethiopians are coming here too. Civilians are caught up in the

fighting between the rebels and the military. We have been told that

the number of eat Ethiopian refugees is increasing over the

last few weeks. We have tracked some down and are hoping to meet

them here. This grandmother of four arrived

just three weeks ago. She was arrested along with 100 others. She

says soldiers killed her son in front of her.

TRANSLATION: Whenever there is fighting between the two, they go

to the nearest town and take their revenge on civilians. They would

kill or arrest everybody. She was jailed for one-and-a-half years.

The women kept in a container, picked out on a nightly basis to be

tortured. TRANSLATION: They raped me in a room. One of them was

standing on my head, and one tied my hands. They were taking turns. I

fainted during this. After that they threw me into the container. I

can't say how many, but there were many soldiers. I can't estimate the

number. A mother with a young child. Again stories of rape, and torture.

TRANSLATION: There were more than 50 women in prison with me, we all

experienced the same sorts of things. I gave up on life, I

thought they were going to kill me. You don't worry about rape when you

have no hope. This woman says she was arrested and accused of being a

supporter of the rebel militia, the National Liberation Front, declared

a terrorist group by the Ethiopian Government. She shows us the marks

and scars of torture. Stab wounds from a bay I don't know net. - a

Bayonette. TRANSLATION: They used to beat me, whatever they liked.

Then they started raping me. They were beating me while I was being

raped. I was bleeding. I became unconscious when I saw my unborn

baby. And you were eight months pregnant at this time? TRANSLATION:

Yes. A man stamped on my stomach, you can imagine what happened to

the child. Very big kicks. Blows with the butt of a gun. As a

consequence of that, the child died. Independent sources have told us

similar stories of widespread human rights abuses. There is no way that

we can verify these stories, and the press can't operate freely in

Ethiopia, we are going to try to go in undercover.

Away from the drought and familiar anyone, the rains have come to

Addis Abada. It is difficult to operate here, it is a virtual one-

party state, and dissent is not tolerated. We arranged clandsetine

meetings with key contacts. Ethiopia receives approximately $3

billion in long-term development aid. The UK is the second-largest

donor, after the US. This year our budget tops �290 million. The

Ethiopian Government controls much of the distribution. Almost all of

this aid goes through the Government channels. They have the

Government administrators have the last say on who gets and who does

not. The motivation is buying support, that's how they recruit

support. Holding the population hostage.

We travelled to the southern region. It is surprisingly illusion here,

but this is deceptive. Lush here, but it is deceptive. The rains have

come late and the crops haven't matured. The wife of this village

elder died a few days a the reason, he says, chronic hunger.

TRANSLATION: Five old people and five children died because of the

familiar anyone recently. There are many children begging in the towns

and on the sides of the roads. They are struggling to survive. This

woman is a widow. She has seven children. The older ones have gone

to town to beg, and scavange scraps from bins.

TRANSLATION: This year there has been no help, no intervention from

the Government. What are your fears for your children, for their

future? TRANSLATION: Got knows, if they survive they might find their

way, or die of poverty. What can I TRANSLATION: I give my children

water, boiled with the leaves from coffee trees, and a sort of grass

that is meant for the animals, that is how they are surviving.

Another village 30kms away, it is a similar story. We spoke to the

villagers, some had not eaten for four days. They told us they have

had no help from the Government. In 2005, the people of these villages

voted overwhelmingly for the opposition. And according to our

sources, they are still being punished now.

We travelled 100kms north to meet with others, farmers who say they

too have been targeted because of their political beliefs. It was too

dangerous to meet in their own village, they walked two hours

across country, to meet at a safe location. TRANSLATION: Because we

are in the opposition, we are not able to survive in our country. Our

integrity, our conscience, does not allow us to join the ruling party,

for these reasons we suffer greatly, we suffer if we want to get

fertiliser, I think there are spies here. Is that him? Is it safe?

is not safe. This is not safe? We can divert. We have had to cut

the interviews here short, we have basically been told that we have

attracted too much attention, and it is no longer safe to continue

here. But these people here, these farmers have told us how they have

been denied fertiliser, seed, they have had their land grabbed from

them, such is the situation that their own wives are leaving them,

they have been completely ostracised from their own

communities, just because of their political beliefs and the grip the

regime has on the community here. Opposition leaders say they have

personally brought evidence like this to the attention of the

international community time and time again.

The position is dismissive. They always want to dismiss it as an

isolated incident, when we present them with proof, and we challenge

them to go down and check it out for themselves, they don't do it.

A traditional funeral further north. This is Ethiopia's largest and most

populist region. In the last few months more than 200 political

activists have been detained in a series of mass arrests. Many

detained without charge. Accused of being members of the Oromo

liberation front, an armed seperatist organisation, again,

declared a terrorist group by the Ethiopian Government.

Professor Merera Gudina is a seasoned national opposition

politician, with his roots firmly in the region. He says the

Government is rounding up members of his and other parties, accusing

them of being terrorists. Hundreds of them are now in prison, our

members. The Government knows our members, but they say they are

members of the other party, the outlawed party. You are saying

these are innocent people that have been jailed? We know they are our

members they have been in parliament, some of them, some of

them in the pal parliament, some of them were in the regional

parliament. Some of them were our candidates last time, during the

elections. What happens to them in jail? Some of them are severely

tortured. Back in Addis Abada, it is here that some of the worst

human rights abuses are alleged to be currently taking place. This is

the prison, and it is here that opposition politicians, academics

and dissidents are interrogated. This man recently fled from

Ethiopia after his release. TRANSLATION: Interrogation starts

with beating. They handcuff your hands and feet, and hang you upside

down. They immerse you in water. They use electric shocks. This man

was a senior opposition politician. He was interrogated every night for

six weeks, kept in solitary confinement. I have never seen such

being grigaigs of - being gridaigs of human being. I saw a man -

Degradation, they said to a man to remove his trousers, they beat him,

and beat him, they took his penis and with a cable round it just beat

it like that, he will never produce again. You will be castrated.

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission recently published a

report into conditions in 35 prisons across the country. It says

The international community funds the Ethiopian commission. Last year

the UK's contribution was �230,000. This is an internationally

respected human rights campaigner, Professor Mesfin Woldemariam.

they wanted the Human Rights Commission to work, justly, legally,

I think there is a lot to be said. But these are puppets appointed to

the commission. Absolute puppets. You know we have a generation of

people beaten, some of them even lost their lives, and we challenge

a lot of diplomats, including British diplomats to get access to

what is going on. What is their response? They say the Government

say this is interference, the Government say this and that, more

apologetic, not really pressing hard to get the information about

what is going on. They need to think much more strategically about

how you engage with a country that fundamentally disrespects human

rights. How do you make sure that aid in that contextually gets where

it is supposed to get. It is a - context, actually gets where it is

going to get. The purpose of development said is to help

Ethiopia on to its feet to establish democracy, justice and

the rule of law. The evidence we have gathered suggests it is

failing. Joining me now is the Ethiopian deputy head of mission to

the UK, ambassador Abdirashid Dulane. First of all, what we

discovered was human rights violations that were systemic,

widespread abuse and sorture, a pregnant woman raped and tortured,

a grandmother in the refugee camp who said she was raped, another

woman who was stamped on her stomach, what do you say to that?

First, thank you very much actually for allowing us to explain, but,

first, I want to indicate that this is completely a report that lacks

objectivity, it also lacks even- handedness, and as a matter of fact

it solely got the source, the sources which it used are opponents

of Ethiopia who have been rejected by the electorate, and who have

been, time and again, already shown that their allegations are

unfounded. If you look, for example.: Do you disbelieve these

women were raped and tortured, one had bayonet marks on her feet,

these are not, these are women and grand mothers? These are in the

refugee camp. These are in the refugee camp? Only one, the others

were within the country. They were, our reporter was there? He said

actually he was reporting from the refugee camp. He spoke to one women

in the refugee camp, and he spoke to others within the country. The

point is surely that these women, whether these women are opposition

supporters or not, presumably you condemn any kind of torture or

abuse? Yes. I was generally talking about the report. As far as torture

and rape is concerned, the Ethiopian Government is a

Government that is governed by the rule of law. That human rights and

also democratic rights, are enshrined within the Ethiopian

constitution. What happens in prison, in prison in Addis Abada,

we heard there were men that had their heads held underwater, whose

genitals were smashed, who had electric currents put through their

body? These are completely rehashed and recycling of old allegations

for which my Government has time and again and repeatedly has given

answers to. What about having a UN special raconter on torture, to go

into the country and look around the prisons and speak to the

people? What about that? What I'm saying is look at your reporter,

what he was saying that the reporters are not actually allowed,

and he was reporting actually from Addis Abada. He got in secretly? He

was undercover, ambassador? He was reporting from Oromo, he was also

reporting. Can I just tell you, he was undercover? Can I tell you, one

of your reporters, Mike skap skal woolridg, he was there, he has been

there, he was reporting in the country. Can I be clear, you have

to understand the BBC position on this, he had to go undercover, he

would have not been allowed entry into Ethiopia. Who were his sources,

who took him into the country, OLF, these are the two organisations he

took as a source. He spoke to many, many villagers, and scores of

people, one particular point, let's talk about the farmer who said he

had neither fertiliser and seeds, what Angus Stickler found when he

visited villages, is one village would be on the edge of starvation

and no crops, and the next village people were not starving, they were

not prosperous, they were not starving, and the village that was

in much greater trouble was a village that had opposition

supporters, the village that was looked after, was a Government-

supported village, do you deny that? Yes, I completely deny that.

In Ethiopia in 200315 million people were actually requiring

assistance, now, in 2011 only 4.5 million people are requiring

assistance. From here you can understand that the policies of the

Government, for which we are always putting as a priority, in making

sure that the early warning systems are actually in place, and these

people which they are saying actually have never actually

starved. The UN report on torture on Ethiopia, amnesty, Human Rights

Watch, they are all lying, they are just talking nonsense, and

Newsnight too? Because these independent investigations have

already been carried out. As a matter of fact by saying my

Government is actually starving people, and the use of aid money

and aid resources and the development assistance group has

already independently investigated and already found that these

allegations were completely unfounded, and were fabricated.

Just one last point, do you think that you would let, not only the UN

special person in, but do you think journalists should be able to come

into the country to speak to whoever they wish and go wherever

they want, and they should be allowed into Ethiopia to make their

own judgments? Journalists with special agendas, working close with

these terrorists elements will still be not allowed And the UN

representative, you will let him in? We will be able to do that.

Unfortunately there was no-one from the Department of International

development available tonight. They It's 13 years since capital

punishment has been voted on at Westminster. It seems it is rarely

talked about among politicians. But the subject has received the most

on-line e-petitions, more than 40, in the Government's new e-petitions

scheme, which went live today. If the number of signatures to these

e-petitions were to reach 100,000, it is possible it could trigger a

parliamentary debate. Supporters of capital punishment believe MPs have

no stomach for the issue of the death penalty, and this just might

On June 21st Ruth Ellis was found guilty of murder at the Old Bailey.

The questions about the death penalty haven't changed. Millions

are asking is it iflised to kill by law, does it really act as a

deterrent. Ever since its abolition, the campaign to bring it back has

flared up periodically. An hour before the debate began a cue 100

yards long had formed outside the House of Commons. They should bring

hanging back. Ultimately the attempts have never gotten anywhere.

Hanging seems to be, literally, a dead issue. The latest attempt to

bring back capital punishment, has come from a blogger who has named

himself after someone who was executed, or a while back, Guido

Fawkes. The public has always supported the death penal tee, but

politicians have voted against it. At the moment we have seen a

disengagement between the political classs and the public. As way of

trying to address the disengagement, the Government has launched its e-

petition website. It is this that campaigners for the death penalty

think will make a decisive difference. Get00,000 names and it

could, could, trigger a Commons debate. The final decision is up to

a committee of backbenchers. I'm anxious this will be a success. It

is an improvement on the previous e-petition, which ended at Number

Ten and didn't lead to the House of Commons. I'm sure the Backbench

Business Committee will want to respond to the petitions and look

at it alongside other priorities, and find time to debate the most

important issues that emerge from the launch today. Even if there is

a debate t seems unlikely that enough MPs would vote for a

restoration. Across the world, the countries with death penalties,

there are so many people, hundreds of thousands of people executed

yearly, it hasn't prevented those sorts of crimes taking place. When

criminals commit crime, they don't think of the sentence, but whether

they can get away with it. Should our elected representative doss

what we tell them. MPs like Edmund Burke have long argued that they

should have the strength to resist popular opinion. As I said to my

speech of the electors of Bristol 1774, your representatives owes you,

not his industry only, but his judgment, and he betrays, instead

of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion. And I went on to

say, authoritative instructions, mandates issued, which the member

is bound blindly and implicitly to obey, to vote and to argue for,

though contrary to the clearest conviction of his judgment and

conscience, these are things utterly unknown to the laws of this

land, and which arise from a fundamental mistake of our order

and tenor of our constitution. other words MPs are representatives

not delegates. Then there is how you measure the public opinion.

is absolutely true the public would like to see this issue debated in

parliament. We find three quarters of people saying that politicians

ignore the popular will when it comes to sentences for serious

crimes. We know many people see crime as one of the biggest

problems facing Britain. We know when we ask people what is it about

crime bothering you, it is sentences being too lenient. But

when people sit down and consider the issues, in the way that MPs

have to, their views turn out to be a bit more nuanced. If you take the

killing of Sara Payne, people said at the time of her murder her

killer should be executed. After all the judicial process, and life

in jail, as the sentence, without remission, 84% admitted that

judgment was right. As if to illustrate the problem, the most

popular petition on the Government's website tonight is to

keep the ban on capital punishment, getting more than double the

support for the petition for bringing back the death penalty.

Further Government developments on the stories developing last night

on Newsnight, we reported claims by Heather Mills claiming her phone

was hacked by a Mirror Group journalist. We carried an exclusive

interview with Heather Mills, where she said she had been contacted by

a Mirror Group journalist, who relayed to her, verbatim, a message

that Sir Paul McCarthy had left on her voicemail, leading her to the

conclusion that her phone had been hacked, apparently confirmed by an

unnamed journalist. Added to this, an article written by Piers Morgan,

not the journalist named to u where he explained during his time as

editor of the Mirror, he was played a tape of a message left by Sir

Paul McCarthy. Tonight there is word that Sir Paul McCarthy has

entered the fray, talking to a group of journalists in Los Angeles,

where he has said he will ask the police to investigate this

allegation, decribing the hacking of phones as a horrendous invasion

of privacy. When someone of his stature gets involved in this, it

only makes people like Piers Morgan to explain how they heard this tape.

No time for the papers, they all go on financial meltdown. That is all

from Newsnight tonight, join us After the rain of Thursday, Friday

is looking good. With most places dry and bright, with some very

pleasant sunshine, the rain clearing away from the Northern

Isles during the course of the day and for the rest of the UK we are

set fair. Mid-afternoon, broken cloud and sunshine, across the

heart of England. Temperatures in the comfort zone, high teens, low

20s, light winds. Warmer than that, across the London area. We have

lost the oppressive heat which many of us have endured over the last

couple of days. Some of the best sunshine around the coastal fringe.

There will be some cloud building up inland, across the south west

peninsula, it shouldn't threaten rain, it is a similar story across

Wales too, some of the best of the blue skies will be on the beaches.

In Northern Ireland the odd chance of a shower. Most places staying

dry and bright, and for Scotland showers will be isolated.

Temperatures 17-18. Friday looking OK, Saturday across the more

northern areas is more mixed, there will be a threat of showers, and

some heavy and slow moving. Further south, I think any showers

remaining fairly isolated, a good chance on Saturday that many of us

again will stay dry, high teens and low 20s, this is the set up on