23/08/2011 Newsnight


23/08/2011

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman.


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It's the most dramatic event in the Arab uprising, a genuine revolution.

:00:11.:00:15.

Colonel Gaddafi's 40-year tyranny no longer even extends to his own

:00:15.:00:19.

garden. The rebels stormed into the dictator's compound, but of the man

:00:19.:00:26.

himself, there is no sign. Last night his son and heir apparent was

:00:26.:00:30.

blustering, defiance, tonight he's history, his toys the trophies of

:00:30.:00:33.

victorious rebels. What is to be done with the architects of regime

:00:34.:00:40.

that plundered a country. We're in Tripoli as celebrations

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begin in the newly renamed Martyr's - martyrs' Square.

:00:49.:00:59.
:00:59.:01:02.

Where does this leave Lybia, we will hear from our guests. Around

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4.00pm, Colonel Gaddafi and one of his sons telephoned the Russian

:01:06.:01:11.

President at the international Chess Federation, Gaddafi claimed

:01:12.:01:16.

to be in Tripoli, he said they would fight. An hour later, the

:01:16.:01:20.

rebels had fought their way into his compound in the heart of

:01:20.:01:24.

Tripoli, and he was nowhere to be seen. No indeed was a single member

:01:24.:01:31.

of his famous bodyguard of revolutionary nun, on the cusp of

:01:31.:01:35.

autumn, the Arab Spring had claimed its most dramatic prize.

:01:35.:01:40.

Colonel Gaddafi has not been captured, but does it feel as if it

:01:40.:01:44.

is over? I'm quite sure he's not playing chess tonight, Jeremy,

:01:44.:01:48.

because he must be very unhappy about the scenes that have

:01:48.:01:56.

literally exploded in the centre of this capital. The newly renamed

:01:56.:02:06.
:02:06.:02:09.

Marters' Square, it is where he - martyrs - Martyr' Square, where he

:02:09.:02:15.

used to speak to the people. And people are gathered there tonight

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to celebrate the end of his bizarre and brutal hold over the country.

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The Green Revolution for those people is dead. You can hear the

:02:22.:02:26.

sound of gunfire in the air, the city has been resonating to the

:02:26.:02:33.

sounds of gunfire and other things being fired off for several hours

:02:33.:02:37.

tonight. That is not the seen over the whole of the city, it is also a

:02:37.:02:44.

city of uncertainty, there is still fighting in some areas. There are

:02:44.:02:47.

some areas held by Gaddafi loyalists? Yes, indeed. My

:02:47.:02:49.

colleagues came back from the compound that was taken earlier

:02:49.:02:53.

today. They were warned by the rebels they should leave because

:02:53.:02:57.

there was still some fighting on the streets around the compound.

:02:57.:03:00.

Gaddafi loyalists were still putting up resistance. We have been

:03:00.:03:03.

travelling through this country for the past 48 hours, there were roads

:03:03.:03:07.

we could not take. We were told there was fierce fighting, again

:03:07.:03:10.

between fighters of Colonel Gaddafi and some of the rebels. In other

:03:10.:03:13.

areas there was said to be negotiations between the two sides.

:03:13.:03:16.

The battle isn't over, but certainly the days are counted, and

:03:16.:03:21.

there is not much time left before a new kind of leadership will take

:03:21.:03:26.

charge. But Libyans tell us they can't truly celebrate until they

:03:26.:03:31.

know where Colonel Gaddafi is, and that his regin is well and truly

:03:31.:03:37.

over. It is too early to talk in any detail about what happens next?

:03:37.:03:42.

Well, the next step will be, and we hear from Benghazi, which is the

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headquarters of the National Transitional Council, the rebel

:03:46.:03:56.
:03:56.:03:56.

council... Well, evidently we have some problem with the satellite

:03:56.:04:01.

there. Tonight it is scenes of jubilation for the rebels after

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what was an unpromising morning. The battle for Tripoli is the last

:04:06.:04:10.

act in a six-month struggle, with the compound their new prize. We

:04:10.:04:20.
:04:20.:04:21.

report on how the day unfolded. More than 48 hours after rebel

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forces swept into Tripoli, the bat le - battle for the compound

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continues. It has swung wildly from the opposition, to forces loyal to

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Colonel Gaddafi. We are going to win, because the people are with us.

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And then back again, not for the first time, an overhasty victory

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has been predicted. For the Gaddafi regime, this is the final chapter.

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But so far the colonel himself is nowhere to be seen. If you know,

:04:55.:05:01.

let me know, we don't know. I don't have a clue. He wasn't in his

:05:01.:05:06.

compound when rebel forces overran it this afternoon.

:05:06.:05:13.

But these scenes must surely be the biggest blow so far.

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To the four decade grip on fire. The toppling of statues is the

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traditional accompaniment to the fall of a dictator. This one

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represents an American fighter jet, a symbol of the colonel's defiance

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built in 1986. The base at Bab Al- Aziziya is of huge strategic and

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emotional value to the regime. It was here he stook his stand against

:05:42.:05:45.

the opposition when protest - took his stand against the opposition

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when protests began six months ago. Now the rebel fighters, none of

:05:50.:05:55.

them professional fighters, have swarmed across his residence and

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the command centre at the very heart of his centre of power.

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over the city there are medical facilities, underground bunkers,

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offices, communication centres. This is really you know the

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absolute, if one thinks of Gaddafi as an octopus, with a head and

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multiple leg, this is really the head, this is the centre of all of

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his intelligence, military and also political capabilities. It is

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extraordinaryly significant. This compound stretches for over

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two square miles, yet it seemed to fall with relative ease, to an

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undisciplined and loosely affiliated group of fighters.

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I expect a lot of people would have got out in the final hours of

:06:53.:06:57.

fighting, and they will be now doing what? Those who know about

:06:57.:07:02.

urban warfare believe the rebels must have had some help? Over the

:07:02.:07:10.

last few months we and others have been putting teams into Benghazi,

:07:10.:07:14.

some non-military and some military as well. I suspect some Arab

:07:14.:07:18.

nations have been involved, Qatar have been involved in the air

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campaign. I wouldn't be surprised at all if there were some special

:07:22.:07:27.

forces in the round, call them what you like, Quatari, and maybe other

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nations who come in to help in this phase.

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The question now for the rebels and for NATO is how long this next

:07:35.:07:45.

phase will last. After months of stalemate for

:07:45.:07:48.

painfully slow progress, the last few months have been a

:07:48.:07:52.

rollercoaster ride, advances by the rebels and victory almost in their

:07:52.:07:56.

grasp only to have it snatched from them again on a number of occasions.

:07:56.:08:00.

As we speak there are still pockets of fighting going on inside Tripoli,

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that does look set to continue for a while at least. It is difficult

:08:03.:08:07.

to get a clear picture of who controls what parts of the city.

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Areas where recent fighting has erupted are marked here in red. But

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Tripoli is becoming divided, neighbourhood by neighbourhood, as

:08:16.:08:21.

residents form militia's to defend their areas. But where is Colonel

:08:21.:08:31.

Gaddafi? This man, by - bizarrely says he got a phone call from him,

:08:31.:08:38.

he's the head of the International Chess Federation, he said the

:08:38.:08:41.

colonel was safe and well in Tripoli, but the fact is, he hasn't

:08:41.:08:46.

been seen in months. We have all learned in the past few months not

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to place too much emphasis on any one development or piece of news.

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We are in the death throws of this regime, it is a good thing we have

:08:55.:09:00.

reached that point, and the people of Libya have fought their way to

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that point, against violent repression from the regime. It is a

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difficult and dangerous time, and it is not over yet. Everyone is

:09:06.:09:10.

having to learn to be cautious about their predictions in this

:09:10.:09:13.

conflict, but practically the entire country is now in rebel

:09:13.:09:17.

hands. And for the people who have been fighting this revolution since

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February, a mood of euphoria and impatience is proving hard to

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suppress. NATO's spokeswomen, joins us now

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from Brussels. Is Colonel Gaddafi is in Tripoli do you know? I don't

:09:38.:09:42.

know for a fact where Colonel Gaddafi may be. Judging from the

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very brief appearance by his son at the dead of night last night, that

:09:47.:09:53.

didn't look to me as if any of the members of this family are in

:09:53.:10:01.

control of the capital, or of the country, or of anything much at all.

:10:01.:10:07.

Of course they are on the run, but they cannot hide. You say they

:10:07.:10:13.

cannot hide, but you are telling us the entire intelligence operation

:10:13.:10:18.

of the world's biggest military alliance does not know where this

:10:18.:10:24.

man is? Colonel Gaddafi and other individuals in the regime are not

:10:24.:10:29.

targets of NATO operations. We're not targeting specific individuals.

:10:29.:10:32.

But it is clearly relevant that you know? We haven't been throughout

:10:32.:10:38.

this campaign. Well, what I think is of the utmost importance to us

:10:38.:10:43.

is our mandate, under the United Nations Security Council resolution,

:10:43.:10:47.

1973, and that is to protect civilians and civilian populated

:10:47.:10:51.

areas from attacks and the threat of attacks. That is what NATO has

:10:51.:10:56.

been doing very effectively. Would it be helpful in that mission in

:10:56.:11:03.

Colonel Gaddafi was captured? would be very helpful if Colonel

:11:03.:11:11.

Gaddafi realised that he is history. He is part of Libya's bloat-

:11:11.:11:16.

splattered past, but he's certainly not part of its future, and he and

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the remnants of his regime must realise that this conflict must

:11:21.:11:27.

come to an end and they must spare the Libyan people more bloodshed

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and more suffering. But what we have been seeing, not just in

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Tripoli, about but across the country s that there is still some

:11:35.:11:40.

shelling, there are still attacks against civilian, only last night

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we saw the launch of a scud-type missile, from Sirte, Colonel

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Gaddafi's stronghold, towards the city of Misrata. Can you tell us

:11:52.:11:57.

whether...That Rocket didn't hit anything, but it still shows that

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they are dangerous and so the NATO mission has to continue until our

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mandate is fulfilled, until the job is done. We are fully determined to

:12:08.:12:12.

do that. Were there any NATO forces involved in the advance on Tripoli,

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or indeed in the fighting in Tripoli today? There are no NATO

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troops on the ground, no NATO forces on the ground. Our mission

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is to enforce the no-fly zone, the arms embargo, and the protection of

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civilians and civilian populated areas from the air.

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And there have been no air strikes against Colonel Gaddafi's compound,

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we take it then? There have been a lot of air strikes against command

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and control centres across Libya, including Colonel Gaddafi's

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compound, in the past five months. We have conducted some 20,000

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sources in the - sort at thiss in the past few months and struck some

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significant military targets, and - sorties in the past few months and

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struck some significant military targets and stop the military

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machine that gad had formed over the last 40 years and he had been

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using against his own people. included his house? This was a

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command and control centre that had been struck, as I say, over the

:13:31.:13:37.

past five months several times. This is a cumulative effect of a

:13:38.:13:45.

very effective NATO campaign. long will this continue? I'm not

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going to guess how long it will continue. Gaddafi and his regime,

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whatever remains of it, are unpredictable, and therefore, still

:13:55.:14:00.

dangerous. What is important is there is a commitment to continue

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implementing the UN mandate, and we will do it, until the job is done.

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That UN mandate is for the protection of civilians, isn't it?

:14:10.:14:14.

Indeed. So therefore, NATO's responsibility...There Are still

:14:15.:14:19.

attacks and shelling across the country. NATO's responsibility

:14:19.:14:23.

would include protecting civilians if there were any kind of mob

:14:23.:14:30.

justice in the aftermath of the Gaddafi regime? NATO's mandate is

:14:30.:14:35.

very clear, what is also very clear is the responsibility of the

:14:35.:14:38.

National Transitional Council, to ensure that the transition towards

:14:38.:14:46.

a new Libya, towards democracy is done. Not with bloodshed, and

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violence, through reconciliation, through peace, and through the

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respect of human rights, and the rule of law. What we have heard and

:14:53.:14:59.

what we have seen, so far, from the NTC, is very welcome, we have seen

:14:59.:15:05.

a very strong commitment to that. Can we take it that were the NTC,

:15:05.:15:09.

for whatever reason, to be unable to control mob justice taking

:15:09.:15:15.

effect, NATO would still act upon its UN mandate and protect

:15:15.:15:23.

civilians from mob justice? We will continue, as I said, to enforce the

:15:23.:15:28.

UN mandate. Now that UN mandate is conducted through an air operation.

:15:28.:15:34.

We will not be able to do everything in Libya from the air,

:15:34.:15:39.

that's very clear. There is a responsibility of all the forces in

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Libya, on all sides, to ensure that the transition towards a new Libya

:15:46.:15:50.

is done with full respect of the rule of law, and the human rights

:15:50.:16:00.
:16:00.:16:01.

of the Libyan people. Jean Chretien, the US Ambassador to Libya is in -

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Gene Cretz, the US calm bass dor to Libya in washing - ambassador to

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Libya is in Washington and with us now.

:16:10.:16:17.

Do you think we need to stn to protect civilians now? Until we get

:16:17.:16:21.

the signs that the Gaddafi regime is finished, I think the NATO

:16:21.:16:25.

mandate will continue. There is every danger, is there not, that

:16:25.:16:29.

this could go the way of Iraq, where there is a victory over the

:16:29.:16:35.

regime, and then anarchy ensues? You know, I have heard several of

:16:35.:16:38.

our commentators throughout the past few days, throughout the

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United States, commenting on the possibility that an arky could

:16:44.:16:48.

follow and making all - anarchy could follow and making all kinds

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of speculation. Let's give the NCT some credit. They started with zero,

:16:53.:16:56.

they inherited a situation from Gaddafi in which there were no

:16:56.:16:59.

institutions and no politics and no sense of civil society. They

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inherited a country that has been ruled by a man who brought the

:17:05.:17:14.

notion of divide and conquer to unprecedented heights, they have a

:17:14.:17:18.

long road ahead no doubt. But until the current time we have some faith

:17:18.:17:23.

in them, that they will be able to carry out what will be a positive

:17:23.:17:29.

transition. They certainly have done everything, as I said to give

:17:29.:17:33.

us that certain comfort level. There is no doubt the situation

:17:33.:17:37.

they face will be complex, it won't be easy getting rid rave geem. You

:17:37.:17:43.

are not taking down a man - of a regime, you are not just taking

:17:43.:17:49.

down a man but a regime existing for 40 years. Let's not assume

:17:49.:17:53.

there will be anarchy at this stage, when we haven't reached the end

:17:53.:17:57.

game yet. Let's leave aside the interesting comment about regime

:17:57.:18:04.

change there. And let's look at the NTC who were unable to be sure that

:18:04.:18:08.

they had Saif Gaddafi in their custody, as they claimed yesterday,

:18:08.:18:13.

and yet an hour later he popped up giving an impromptu press

:18:13.:18:17.

conference in the middle of the night. Is this an organisation

:18:17.:18:20.

coherently acting? Let's take a look at the challenges they have

:18:20.:18:24.

been up against these six months, and give them some credit for that.

:18:24.:18:30.

There is no doubt, look in this rush into Tripoli, which really no-

:18:30.:18:36.

one expected to happen so quickly, that in the fog of war, there are

:18:36.:18:41.

miscommunications, there are missed steps. They have already

:18:41.:18:45.

acknowledged there was a misstep, they have faced it, with

:18:45.:18:51.

transparency and accountability, let's not just take one instance

:18:51.:18:55.

Asim bowlic of a total incompetence on the part of this council, which

:18:55.:19:02.

has done some amazing work over the last six months to get the

:19:02.:19:06.

rebellion continuing and get them to the point to where they are

:19:06.:19:16.
:19:16.:19:17.

today. You are in an interesting point, a year ago when you were the

:19:17.:19:21.

ambassador, Gaddafi was an ally, wasn't he? I wouldn't use the word

:19:21.:19:26.

ally, I would say that we made a determination, along with our

:19:26.:19:29.

British colleagues and other members of the international

:19:29.:19:34.

community, that it was in the international community's interest

:19:34.:19:39.

to try to bring a pariah nation, involved in numerous acts of

:19:39.:19:44.

terrorism, and who had been an enemy to many of us over the years

:19:44.:19:53.

to bring them in from the cold and try to reform them. We made efforts

:19:53.:19:58.

on the goal, but we didn't succeed to the best extent we wanted. I

:19:58.:20:02.

wouldn't call them an ally, I would call them a positive development

:20:02.:20:08.

that we had all tried to do, to bring this pariah nation and

:20:08.:20:12.

dictator back into the international fold. We succeeded on

:20:12.:20:17.

some fronts and on some we failed. Can I ask you some specific

:20:17.:20:21.

questions, will the United States seek the extradition of Abdel Baser

:20:21.:20:24.

al-Megrahi? That is a question I would refer you to the Department

:20:24.:20:29.

of Justice on. What would you like to see happen

:20:29.:20:35.

with him? I don't have a particular view. We're focused right now on

:20:35.:20:39.

bringing this regime to, seeing the opposition bring this regime to an

:20:39.:20:45.

end, and then helping the Libyan people, setting them on the path,

:20:45.:20:48.

along with our coalition partners and the international community.

:20:48.:20:52.

Setting them on path towards the democracy and freedom that they

:20:52.:20:59.

deserve after this long, courageous and very, very bloody struggle.

:21:00.:21:03.

If Colonel Gaddafi hadn't been so dangerous, he would have been

:21:03.:21:09.

merely an absurd comical figure, man who renamed the months of the

:21:09.:21:13.

year, published incoherent thoughts in a little green book and ranted.

:21:13.:21:16.

In his time he was dangerous, shipping guns and explosives to

:21:16.:21:19.

terrorists around the world. His regime was the longest lasting in

:21:19.:21:25.

the Arab world, he never achieved his ambition of becoming the new

:21:25.:21:35.
:21:35.:21:42.

Kur national Nasser. He plundered his country remorselessly.

:21:42.:21:47.

Muhammad Gaddafi seized power in a military coup in 1969.

:21:47.:21:51.

For the era, it was an ordinary coup, but Gaddafi was no ordinary

:21:51.:21:58.

person. Scarred by the defeat of the Arab

:21:58.:22:04.

nations in the six-day war with Israel, Gaddafi was part of a young

:22:04.:22:07.

generation of officers determined to revolutionise the Arab world. In

:22:07.:22:14.

the early 70s, faced with internal dissent, he created revolutionary

:22:14.:22:16.

committees, these exerted repression and surveillance into

:22:16.:22:22.

the work place and the home. At the same time he issued the famous The

:22:22.:22:27.

Green Book, a mixture of Islam, socialism and nationalism, that was

:22:27.:22:32.

the theory. In practice Gaddafi launched a mercurial, unpredictable

:22:32.:22:38.

and ruthless proxy war against the west, that would prove impermable

:22:38.:22:44.

to diplomacy. After an abortive attempt to torpedo the QE2 he armed

:22:44.:22:50.

the IRA, declaring the IRA bombs to be Libyan bombs. He armed and sent

:22:50.:22:57.

troops tofied for Idi Amin, and Charles Taylor in Liberia. But in

:22:57.:23:01.

the 1980s, Libya's action against the west refocused, it would be

:23:01.:23:06.

less by proxy, more by direct intervention.

:23:06.:23:11.

Libyan diplomats shot and killed PC Yvonne Fletcher in London in 1984.

:23:11.:23:19.

Libyan agents bombed a nightclub in Berlin in 1986. In response,

:23:19.:23:22.

President Reagan ordered the ill- fated air strike on Gaddafi's

:23:22.:23:27.

compound. The leader escaped, thanks to a warning from Italian

:23:27.:23:32.

politicians. On the 21st of December 1988, Libyan agents

:23:32.:23:36.

perpetrated the biggest mass murder in British history. The Pan Am

:23:36.:23:41.

flight to New York was blown up in midair, killing all 259 people on

:23:41.:23:46.

board, and 11 in the town of Lockerbie. But history was about to

:23:46.:23:50.

change for Colonel Gaddafi. The end of the Cold War paved the way for

:23:50.:23:54.

UN sanctions, which during the 1990s, began to strangle the Libyan

:23:54.:23:58.

economy. Meanwhile, the Libyan elite began to realise what

:23:58.:24:04.

luxuries might be on offer for an oil-rich country in a globalised

:24:04.:24:09.

and oil hungry world. In 1999 Libya surrendered two suspects for trial

:24:09.:24:13.

over the Lockerbie bombing. One, Abdel Baser al-Megrahi, was

:24:13.:24:18.

convicted. In 2003, after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi made a

:24:18.:24:23.

startling, turn, he gave up weapons of mass destruction, and came in to

:24:23.:24:29.

the western fold. On the frontline of the reproachment, was Tony Blair,

:24:29.:24:35.

a key figure in the background, Al- Saiff Gaddafi, his son, the benefit

:24:35.:24:41.

for Britain was clear, oil and trade. BP garnered a major deal.

:24:41.:24:45.

The Gaddafi's clan's aim was also clear, they wanted respectability,

:24:45.:24:51.

and they wanted the return of Al- Megrahi. In 2007, in the last days

:24:51.:24:58.

of the Blair administration, they got both. Al-Saiff is committed to

:24:58.:25:08.
:25:08.:25:08.

resolving contentious, and domestic issues, through diplomacy. Saif was

:25:08.:25:13.

feteed at the London School of Economics. In theory, Libya is the

:25:13.:25:23.

most democratic state in the world. Al-Megrahi was released.

:25:23.:25:27.

And then, on the 14th of February this year, history turned again.

:25:28.:25:36.

The one force nobody had counted on, not the CIA, MI6, or the LSE, the

:25:36.:25:39.

Libyan people rose up and said no more.

:25:39.:25:43.

Tonight, the world is facing a future without Muhammad Gaddafi,

:25:43.:25:48.

the man who dreamed of revolution across the Arab world, finally gets

:25:48.:25:57.

to see one. With us are the Libyan rebels' man in London, and a

:25:57.:26:03.

specialist in Middle East and Libyan affairs, and the former Home

:26:03.:26:06.

Office Minister. How was it that Colonel Gaddafi was

:26:06.:26:11.

able to hold power for 40 years? combination of things. The fact

:26:11.:26:17.

that he was head ago country which is very, very wealthy. He had a lot

:26:17.:26:23.

of money, he could buy his way and pay for a lot of his mistakes. He

:26:23.:26:28.

used a combination of corruption and coercion, he decimated all

:26:28.:26:33.

political opposition from early on, he disband political parties and

:26:33.:26:39.

imprisoned political critics. He was very brutal a sheer brutal

:26:39.:26:42.

dictator. Do you find it embarrassing that your Government

:26:42.:26:51.

embraced this man? I'm not embraced. It was almost an embrace when Tony

:26:51.:26:54.

Blair shook his hand? I don't know what his personal relationship was

:26:54.:26:58.

like with Gaddafi. I do know it was very important to persuade the

:26:58.:27:02.

Libyans and Gaddafi in particular, to give up those programme that is

:27:02.:27:06.

he had to try to develop nuclear weapons and biological weapons and

:27:06.:27:11.

so on. If that hadn't been achieved, well one wonders what the situation

:27:11.:27:19.

would be like in Tripoli today. This isn't going to be over, until

:27:19.:27:24.

he is some how captured or killed or something? Absolutely. He still

:27:24.:27:30.

has a very strong base of loyalists. We have seen how today, in fact,

:27:30.:27:34.

has captured the incredible drama of the last six months. You say he

:27:34.:27:39.

has a very strong base of loyalist, I refer you to the pictures on the

:27:39.:27:43.

wall behind u the scenes of jubilation in the centre of Tripoli

:27:43.:27:47.

tonight, does that look like a bunch of people loyal to a

:27:47.:27:52.

dictator? Not at all. But it is, I'm afraid a reality, loyalists

:27:52.:27:55.

which are infiltrated within the vast majority of the Libyan

:27:55.:28:02.

populations. We have seen, in fact, you know, when the rebels reach the

:28:02.:28:07.

Green Square yesterday, quite easily, the resurgence of very

:28:07.:28:11.

bitter infighting by snipers, pockets of resistance, and indeed,

:28:11.:28:19.

on going battles. This is something which is bound to be carrying on,

:28:19.:28:25.

I'm afraid. How do you read that analysis? Out of reality, out of

:28:25.:28:29.

this world, a few hundred snipers and mercenaries, does not equate to

:28:30.:28:35.

a wide base of loyalist, that is absolutely ridiculous. By the way

:28:35.:28:40.

tonight, even Gaddafi's own home town, Sirte, his own tribe, are now

:28:40.:28:44.

negotiating to come over to the revolution, and they totally

:28:44.:28:50.

disowned him. This man has no real support or loyalty in Libya

:28:50.:28:53.

whatsoever. He has used thousands and thousands of mercenaries and

:28:53.:28:57.

snipers, we have arrested many of them. That is where he drew his

:28:57.:29:02.

strength over the last few months. I would love to be enthusiastic

:29:02.:29:06.

about this revolution, and the scenes of jubilations are entirely

:29:06.:29:11.

justified tonight. But what I'm trying to say is let's not forget

:29:12.:29:17.

that the Libyan society is deeply entrenched with all sorts of

:29:17.:29:21.

differences, tribal rivalries, geographical rivalries, ideolgical

:29:21.:29:26.

rivalries, and in all sorts of conflicts you have a build up of

:29:26.:29:30.

grievance, resentment, a desire for revenge and retaliation, this won't

:29:30.:29:34.

be sorted out overnight. It is an important point to make. But the

:29:34.:29:39.

young men we have seen storming the Gaddafi compound today are, in the

:29:40.:29:45.

end, young men with gun, and Libya today, Libya's population today is

:29:45.:29:49.

amongst possibly the most heavily armed in the world. And one of the

:29:49.:29:53.

more youthful too. If either of those things is true,

:29:53.:29:58.

we're in there for quite a long time to come aren't we? I think we

:29:58.:30:02.

are going to be in there for a very long time to come. I'm not sure

:30:02.:30:08.

what it will look like, but the most pernicious legacy that Gaddafi

:30:08.:30:15.

leaves Libya with is the lack of a viable and working political system.

:30:15.:30:22.

So one has to be created. As was said, there is a power vacuum there,

:30:22.:30:26.

there is a potential for disaster. So we have to do everything we can

:30:26.:30:32.

to try to help the construction of a democratic system of Government

:30:32.:30:36.

there, that people can identify with, that is not going to be easy,

:30:36.:30:43.

because for 42 years he has ruled it as a despot.

:30:43.:30:49.

When you look at the transitional council, does everybody on it want

:30:49.:30:55.

the same kind of Libya? Absolutely. And those fighters as well. Those

:30:55.:30:58.

freedom fighters. And there is absolutely unanimity on what type

:30:58.:31:05.

of Libya we want. But unanimity beyond, let's get rid of Gaddafi?

:31:05.:31:09.

Beyond that. We have a vision, we have a clear road map, we have a

:31:09.:31:12.

determination, we want exactly the opposite of what Gaddafi stood for

:31:12.:31:18.

over the last 42 years. And by the way the kind of divisions that were

:31:18.:31:21.

just highlighted, ethnic, ideolgical, tribal, deep-rooted

:31:21.:31:25.

division, I think she's coming from neighbouring Algeria, it shows she

:31:25.:31:29.

knows very little about Libya. I'm disappointed and sorry to know, if

:31:29.:31:37.

you are an expert on Libya you know very little. Whoever pays you for

:31:37.:31:41.

your expertise they are not getting their money's worth. We don't have

:31:42.:31:48.

religious or sectarian divisions, we don't have ethnic divisions.

:31:48.:31:53.

tribal divisions? The few tribes. Not even between dissidents in both

:31:53.:31:58.

the west and the east, isn't it true your headquarters in Benghazi

:31:58.:32:02.

and most of the fighters have come from the west? The people of the

:32:02.:32:05.

east are the most determined people that Libya will be a united country,

:32:05.:32:11.

with Tripoli as the capital. Tribes in Libya are a social institution

:32:11.:32:14.

rather than a political institution. We are not Iraq, we are Somalia, we

:32:14.:32:21.

are a totally different society. We are homogenius, in North Africa and

:32:21.:32:27.

a Mediterranean society. Let her have her say? With all due respects

:32:27.:32:31.

your comments are very much a cheap shot. What you have been saying

:32:31.:32:35.

about the composition of the Libyan society exposes your utter

:32:35.:32:41.

ignorance or your denial of Libyan history, I'm afraid to say.

:32:41.:32:44.

Ignorance of my own country. are in denial, we have seen the

:32:44.:32:49.

revolution starting in Benghazi, in the east of the country, the group

:32:49.:32:52.

which proved to be the most challenging to the Gaddafi regime

:32:53.:32:58.

came from the south west, we are already seeing conflicts and all

:32:58.:33:03.

sorts of conflicts between the rebels. People fighting on the same

:33:03.:33:06.

side against Gaddafi saying the south west, the rebels in the south

:33:06.:33:09.

west are now claiming to have done most of the fighting and hence

:33:09.:33:15.

should be in charge of the country, they are already vying for the

:33:15.:33:19.

revenues. There is no fighting in the south west. As much as in the

:33:19.:33:24.

east and the west and North West. You are saying that there is no

:33:24.:33:30.

guarantee at all that there will be any kind of unity once Gaddafi is

:33:30.:33:36.

finally got rid of, that it would be hard to make any kind of

:33:36.:33:41.

political consensus? Absolutely. What has undone the Gaddafi regime

:33:41.:33:43.

ultimately is a combination of NATO air power and rebel forces fighting

:33:43.:33:50.

on the ground. And there is no guarantee that the rebels will come

:33:50.:33:55.

to a unanimous decision as to who should run Libya. Let's not forget

:33:55.:33:58.

that ultimately Libya is a fairly recent creation, and there is no

:33:58.:34:03.

guarantee it will remain a single entity. It is unarguable that

:34:04.:34:08.

before NATO intervened, the rebels were on the run, that is why NATO

:34:09.:34:12.

intervened. NATO has made this, does it not have a responsibility

:34:12.:34:17.

some how to continue to make sure it has a peaceful end? I'm not sure.

:34:17.:34:21.

Because the great fashion now, of course, is to ensure that the UN

:34:21.:34:24.

and the Arab League backs everything. I think one of the

:34:24.:34:28.

things that comes out of this Libyan, these extraordinary things

:34:28.:34:35.

going on in Libya, is how useless the Arab League is. Tell us

:34:36.:34:40.

something new? It has to be repeated. Only one country, Qatar,

:34:40.:34:44.

sent any planes in to help. And apparently they ran out of fuel and

:34:44.:34:49.

they weren't used. Including munitions. I think it is

:34:49.:34:52.

extraordinary that people believe that there aren't going to be any

:34:52.:34:56.

problems in the future. I think all of these dictators in the Middle

:34:56.:35:00.

East will be dreadfully worried about what they see going on in

:35:00.:35:03.

Libya tonight. Thank you all very much indeed

:35:03.:35:08.

tonight. With its leader now AWOL, but certainly not in control. The

:35:08.:35:11.

plan is for the so-called National Transitional Council to pave the

:35:11.:35:15.

way for a democratically elected Government. But the chaos of regime

:35:15.:35:19.

change can also leave a vacuum, capable of being filled, as it was

:35:19.:35:25.

in Iraq, by extremist groups. NATO have already observed so-called

:35:25.:35:29.

flickers of dald in the rebel group. We will discuss the potential risks

:35:29.:35:39.
:35:39.:35:44.

ahead in a moment. Gaddafi loved the desert, he used

:35:44.:35:48.

his massive oil wealth to expand his influence from Libya to

:35:48.:35:55.

surrounding desert states and across Africa. He was a mecurial,

:35:55.:35:59.

pragmatic lead, devoid of too many principle, but there is one thing,

:35:59.:36:03.

his opposition to Islamic groups, like the Libyan Islamic Fighting

:36:03.:36:08.

Group determined to overthrow him. Now with Gaddafi's rule at an end,

:36:08.:36:13.

it is thought Islamic groups will try to assert their influence.

:36:13.:36:18.

were working for the overthrow of Gaddafi for two to three decades,

:36:18.:36:21.

now they will feel they are in extremely strong position, and they

:36:21.:36:26.

will be pushing for their own role within the transitional council.

:36:26.:36:29.

Gaddafi played many different roles on the international stage. When I

:36:29.:36:36.

met him, or at lost managed to get close to him, with a Newsnight team

:36:36.:36:41.

a few years ago, he was being courted by many Governments. I was

:36:41.:36:44.

assured that a man, once responsible for so much terror, had

:36:44.:36:49.

changed his way. Britain was told this is a new Gaddafi, but there

:36:49.:36:54.

are a whole raft of issues to be discussed. It is thought as part of

:36:54.:36:58.

the rehabilitation process at the time, Gaddafi was keen to offer the

:36:58.:37:01.

west information about Islamist groups. Whether his information was

:37:01.:37:05.

taken seriously is another matter. It was a rather curious

:37:05.:37:08.

relationship, that Gaddafi wanted to be accepted again in western

:37:08.:37:14.

countries, and he was viscerally anti-Al-Qaeda, so wanted to provide

:37:14.:37:18.

information to Security Services on Al-Qaeda. This is the man who had

:37:18.:37:22.

funded the IRA, and behind the red army faction, and the red brigade

:37:22.:37:27.

and some of the Palestinian groups. It would be extremely unlikely that

:37:27.:37:30.

our Security Services would have taken what he said seriously. They

:37:30.:37:33.

would have been interested to hear what he had to say, but they would

:37:33.:37:38.

have taken it with buckets of salt. Gaddafi's main obsession was Africa.

:37:38.:37:43.

He wanted to use his power and oil wealth to promote his fanciful

:37:43.:37:49.

ideas across the continent. There was a real push in the late 1970

:37:49.:37:57.

and early 1980, to propagandaise the green book around Africa,

:37:57.:38:02.

especially in west and Central Africa, there are Green Book Clubs

:38:02.:38:06.

set up. Students out of university were recruited by Gaddafi agents,

:38:06.:38:11.

and taken for training to Tripoli and Sirte, and then inducted into

:38:11.:38:18.

what he regarded as his brand of Green Revolution the, a

:38:18.:38:25.

reinterpretation of Islam. Now it seems as if his demise will spread

:38:25.:38:31.

reprecussions on African states T could give power to an Islamic

:38:31.:38:36.

group causing concern across The Sahara.

:38:36.:38:40.

Al-Qaeda started in Algeria, but operated beyond the vast tracks of

:38:40.:38:48.

the Sahara desert, through to Male, and Niger, and the Governments and

:38:48.:38:50.

intelligence agencies in those countries have been trying to fight

:38:50.:38:56.

back with American help. Now there are queers that AQIM will move into

:38:56.:39:00.

Libya to try to take advantage of any power vacuum. That is their

:39:00.:39:05.

intention. An AQIM video, posted earlier this month, called for

:39:05.:39:08.

action, and included a statement from the military board, that

:39:08.:39:12.

seeking peaceful change of leaders is like giving aspirin to a cancer

:39:12.:39:17.

patient. AQIM have been linked to kidnappings and attacks across The

:39:17.:39:22.

Sahara. Now it seems they will try to take advantage of a power vacuum

:39:22.:39:26.

in Libya. But the extent of the threat they pose is matter of

:39:26.:39:31.

debate. They are stuck in the countries where weak governance and

:39:31.:39:34.

lack of security institutions make it reasonably easy for them to

:39:34.:39:38.

operate. But in most of what they are doing it is limited to what

:39:38.:39:44.

they can do, by is opportunistic kidnappings and the occasional raid.

:39:44.:39:50.

I question whether they have the capacity to go much beyond that.

:39:50.:39:56.

the national council, transitional council cannot contain things, I

:39:56.:40:01.

think AQIM will become much, much more powerful within the region,

:40:01.:40:05.

and that's one reason why the Algerian Government was continuing

:40:05.:40:12.

to support Gaddafi, because it feared that the fall of Gaddafi's

:40:12.:40:16.

regime would open up the opportunities for smaller, nimble

:40:16.:40:21.

groups, such as AQIM, to move in and run operations across the

:40:21.:40:25.

region. Already it seems the upheavals in

:40:25.:40:30.

Libya could be helping AQIM, there are claims they have received

:40:30.:40:34.

convoys of weapons, including missiles plundered from Gaddafi's

:40:34.:40:42.

Awan donned arms cachets. Last week police in Niger said they seized 60

:40:42.:40:47.

vehicles and a helicopter that most probably came from Libya. Is this a

:40:47.:40:52.

sign Jihadists are getting more organised? It is possible the

:40:52.:40:55.

insecurities throughout North Africa may create a more organised

:40:55.:41:00.

Jihadist challenge across the region. It hasn't happened yet. I

:41:00.:41:04.

suspect it won't. Although there is a lot of places to hide in North

:41:04.:41:08.

Africa, the societies in North Africa, whether Tunisia or the new

:41:08.:41:14.

Libya, are not sympathetic to Jihadism in the way that Lebanon or

:41:15.:41:19.

Pakistan is. They don't really have a sea in which to swim, where the

:41:19.:41:23.

water is really warm enough for them. Gaddafi made it impossible

:41:23.:41:28.

for Islamic groups to operate in Libya. Now it depends on the

:41:28.:41:31.

National Transitional Council to ensure that there is no power

:41:31.:41:35.

vacuum, with extremists trying to exploit it.

:41:35.:41:40.

With us now, a former head of the Libyan militant organisation, known

:41:40.:41:43.

as the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. Who resigned his position

:41:43.:41:48.

after the September 11th attacks and now works to dissuade his

:41:48.:41:52.

former comrades from violence. Also with us John Hamilton a director of

:41:52.:41:57.

the group Cross Border Information. How worried are you about the

:41:57.:42:01.

possible emergence of radical groups in Libya now? The presence

:42:01.:42:06.

of the Islamists in Libya now, it is obvious and clear for everybody.

:42:06.:42:11.

Talking about violent radicals, I'm still not comfortable to say they

:42:11.:42:16.

are an eminent threat. There is a risk, of course, because now we

:42:16.:42:19.

have the guns in the hands of everybody, including young people

:42:19.:42:26.

and the Islamists. Most of them are my ex-colleagues, we fought

:42:26.:42:29.

together 20 years ago in Afghanistan against the Soviet

:42:29.:42:34.

Union, we gave Colonel Gaddafi hard time in the 1990, and I was a

:42:34.:42:39.

mediator from 2007-2010, for reconciliation process. These are

:42:40.:42:45.

the same guys participating with the rebels and with the leadership.

:42:45.:42:49.

NTC. I'm comfortable to say, they say they will stick with the

:42:49.:42:54.

political process. I trust the leaders, I put it this way, my ex-

:42:54.:42:59.

colleagues. I'm not sure about the young people now recruited to the

:42:59.:43:03.

cause recently. How important was Colonel Gaddafi in keeping these

:43:03.:43:10.

radical groups in check? I think the co-operation which he had with

:43:10.:43:15.

western Governments was strongly appreciated by, and I have spoken

:43:15.:43:19.

to military people who have said that, and if you look at the clear

:43:20.:43:26.

relationship, which someone like Costas Custas had with our

:43:26.:43:32.

authorities, - Mousa Koussa, had the authorities that shows the

:43:32.:43:35.

point. Can anyone less than a dictator achieve the same results?

:43:35.:43:40.

I believe they can. The western countries. I think what we are

:43:40.:43:48.

seeing is a collapse of ten years of attempting to fight Islamic

:43:48.:43:54.

extremism by supporting military dictators, all you do is encourage

:43:54.:43:59.

extremism. You mustn't equate the Libyan Islamists with Jihadist, if

:43:59.:44:03.

they have got a chance to co- operate in their own democracies

:44:03.:44:08.

they are going to be less inclined to create problems for us, because

:44:08.:44:14.

we are not going to be supporting their oppressors. I think this

:44:14.:44:19.

point is very important. From my experience, the most successful

:44:19.:44:22.

approach now, with regards to fighting against terrorism and

:44:22.:44:25.

extremism, including radical approach. It is the western

:44:25.:44:28.

approach based on the liberal approach. This is the most

:44:28.:44:32.

successful one, it is a strategic one. You are not saying that you

:44:32.:44:36.

hope it is true but on the basis of your experience in dealing with

:44:36.:44:41.

your former colleagues? I'm aware of what is going on in Europe and

:44:41.:44:46.

Arab countries. For me I have very good experience inside. Why does it

:44:46.:44:51.

work? As a UK example, London in the mid-1990, it was the London

:44:51.:44:57.

stand. I know more than the people what was going on? You were part of

:44:57.:45:04.

it? Not necessarily, it was against Colonel Gaddafi. Trust me on this,

:45:04.:45:10.

the approach based on liberal value, within an open, liberal society, is

:45:10.:45:13.

very effective and useful. Every party brought to justice here in

:45:13.:45:19.

the UK. I know some people disagree, they know exactly this is one of

:45:19.:45:24.

the most just systems existing in the UK. That is why we have a lot

:45:24.:45:28.

of radicals in the UK not involved in terrorism. Does the National

:45:28.:45:30.

Transitional Council seem to you that sort of organisation creating

:45:30.:45:34.

that kind of society? That is certainly what they are saying.

:45:34.:45:37.

Exactly. That is what they are saying. I think they are genuine

:45:37.:45:45.

about that? I think the reaction from what's gone on before is going

:45:45.:45:51.

to be a very strong one. They have got every incentive to try to

:45:51.:45:58.

create a society which incorporates most of the elements they have got.

:45:58.:46:01.

They can attempt to co-operate Tunisia, they are way behind, but

:46:01.:46:07.

they have a few examples to follow. From my own experience, the British

:46:07.:46:13.

model and the Netherlands is the most comprehensive approach, based

:46:13.:46:18.

on liberal values towards extremism and radicalism, which is very

:46:18.:46:23.

successful. I know it is very hard to transfer the whole project to

:46:23.:46:27.

Libya because we haven't got the infrastructure for democracy for

:46:27.:46:31.

the last 20 years. I believe it is doable. We need to engage with the

:46:31.:46:36.

people. The first thing we need to do, behave or you will be

:46:36.:46:39.

criminalised. Nobody in Lybia, we need to be fair about this, like

:46:39.:46:49.

the system here. There is a freedom, but don't try to drive legitimacy

:46:49.:46:55.

based on your participation in the war of freedom. That's all from us

:46:55.:47:04.

tonight, goodnight until tomorrow Good evening. A damp, fairly misy

:47:04.:47:09.

night for many tonight. Even if you don't see the rain. As you go into

:47:09.:47:13.

tomorrow, unlike today, are likely to hit the west in the form of

:47:13.:47:16.

heavy and thundery showers. Brightness inbetween. Further east

:47:16.:47:21.

the morning mist and low cloud breaks up, a good deal of sunshine

:47:21.:47:24.

across eastern England. Showers getting into the North West and the

:47:24.:47:28.

Midlands for the second half of the day. Many in the east will stay dry,

:47:28.:47:32.

significantly warmer than this afternoon. A good five to eight

:47:32.:47:35.

degrees. South-West England and through Wales will have a

:47:35.:47:38.

scattering of showers throughout the day. Some particularly during

:47:38.:47:42.

the afternoon will be heavy and thundery. They will be hit and miss,

:47:42.:47:47.

some will be dry. Showers also for Northern Ireland,

:47:47.:47:51.

some of the heaviest first thing, the slow moving the ones in the

:47:51.:47:58.

afternoon. Winds light. Same too across Scotland, some will stay dry,

:47:58.:48:03.

more persistent rain in Shetland. As we look at the forecast charts

:48:03.:48:08.

for Wednesday into Thursday, you will notice the showers become more

:48:08.:48:11.

ref lant, that continued risk goes across southern parts of the

:48:11.:48:15.

country as well. The weather front we saw with a cluster of showers on

:48:15.:48:19.

Wednesday become as more coherent feature to the east for Thursday.

:48:19.:48:22.

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