Browse content similar to 07/12/2011. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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For a currency we're not even members of, the euro is turning out | :00:08. | :00:12. | |
to have a powerful sway in British politics. As European leaders | :00:12. | :00:15. | |
discuss yet another treaty change, significant numbers of Conservative | :00:15. | :00:20. | |
MPs are demanding to know just what David Cameron is going to do to | :00:20. | :00:24. | |
stand up for Britain. There is no sign it is causing | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy sleepless nights, they say they can | :00:27. | :00:34. | |
keep the euro alive. But what if they are wrong. We roll the dice on | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
eurogeddon with two money men and a politician. How do you handle the | :00:38. | :00:43. | |
collapse of a currency. If we get into a situation of slightly more | :00:43. | :00:46. | |
doom what would you tell politicians to say? Don't say | :00:46. | :00:50. | |
anything unless you have to. Seriously, if you start saying we | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
have stress tested all the banks and we think there is an 87% they | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
are all fine! We will ask two leading economists if the leaders | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
of Europe will find an answer to avoid such clamty. It is the | :01:03. | :01:09. | |
particle that has eluded scientists for 30 years or more. Newsnight | :01:09. | :01:14. | |
learns next Tuesday physicists will announce they have found the first | :01:14. | :01:24. | |
:01:24. | :01:28. | ||
signs of the Higgs boson particle. Why do people less and less think | :01:28. | :01:31. | |
that public debt is the responsibility of the state. | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
One after another they stood up and asked questions, one after another | :01:34. | :01:39. | |
they got little or no answer, certainly little or no detail. The | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
Prime Minister got the benefit of the doubt for now, as the depth of | :01:43. | :01:48. | |
anxiety in his party about Europe was made plain toness the House of | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
Commons today. We have learned most of the details of the Merkel- | :01:53. | :01:59. | |
Sarkozy plan to save the euro, but we don't know if Britain can | :01:59. | :02:05. | |
participate in the new treaty they have a greed to save the euro. | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
Our economics editor is here. You have seen the letter, haven't you? | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
It is stun to go see history, and the future history of Europe | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
written down in black and white, eventhough it doesn't contain much | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
more than what was announced on Monday. There was a slight | :02:21. | :02:26. | |
political Higgs boson in this letter, in the form of a term, that | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
the stability and growth union, we now think we are building. The | :02:30. | :02:35. | |
letter just spells out what they have said, they will try a treaty | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
change with all 27, 17 if they have to. There will be punishment for | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
states who break the rules and break the 3% limits on deficits. | :02:42. | :02:49. | |
Then it talks about the core, the euro core doing all these things, | :02:49. | :02:54. | |
convergance on economic policy, financial regulation, Labour | :02:54. | :03:04. | |
:03:04. | :03:06. | ||
markets, corporate tax, and financial transaction tax. The cap | :03:06. | :03:11. | |
stone is the stability and growth union. I have been asking old hands | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
and said what is it? The stability and growth pact is for the 27, it | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
is about balancing your books and growing, we are a member of that. | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
But a union based on it is quite weird. And it has made me think | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
there are three things going on. There is this 17 project, that is | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
there, they have had it before, Britain won't be in it. There is | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
the 27 project they have said they are trying to do. When you start | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
hearing the thing in the middle called a union, that is where I | :03:38. | :03:42. | |
think, the letter hadn't been published at the time when the MPs | :03:42. | :03:45. | |
had begun laying down their questions, where the questions do | :03:45. | :03:50. | |
really become acute, what is it? What is the stability and growth | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
union? Presumably it is the inner core | :03:54. | :04:00. | |
isn't it? No the inner core is the eurogroup. What is it? It is | :04:00. | :04:05. | |
difficult to tell. One slightly helps it is a mistranslation, it | :04:05. | :04:11. | |
really means somebody else. I don't know! | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
The eurosummit presents itself as an opportunity irresistable for | :04:16. | :04:19. | |
euro-sceptics, time to shout loud and proud for repatriation of | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
powers and a rush to referendum. The greatest champion they found | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
today was the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson. We watched events | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
unfold. As everybody knows they are | :04:31. | :04:35. | |
gentleness themselves, unless you get on the wrong side of them. | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
Perhaps this is why British politicians find this breed so | :04:39. | :04:42. | |
irresistable, that and the association with Churchill. Peter | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
Mandelson, who knows something about PR, enlisted a bulldog for | :04:46. | :04:51. | |
new Labour's cause. And today, a Conservative MP, famous at | :04:51. | :04:58. | |
Westminster, both for hipets and loyalty to you know who, urged her | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
successor to channel his inner canine at the Brussels summit. | :05:02. | :05:07. | |
the Prime Minister do Britain proud on Friday, and show some bulldog | :05:07. | :05:10. | |
spirit in Brussels? I can guarantee to Moy honourable | :05:10. | :05:16. | |
friend that is exactly what I will -- my honourable friend, that is | :05:16. | :05:20. | |
exactly what I will do. The British national interest means to resolve | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
the crisis in the eurozone, freezing the British economy, and | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
freezing economies right across Europe. Resolving the crisis is | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
about jobs and growth and business and investment right here in the UK. | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
That is not quite the bulldog spirit many of his backbenchers are | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
hoping for. They want him to go further, not just hold the line but | :05:40. | :05:45. | |
growl and bear his teeth, a difference -- bare his teeth, a | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
difference Ed Milliband was keen to exploit. He was telling his | :05:49. | :05:52. | |
backbenchers that the opportunity of treaty change, would mean in the | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
future, the repatriation of powers. That was his position of six weeks | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
ago, today he writes an article in the Times, a 1,000-word article, | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
not one mention of the phrase "repatriation of powers", why does | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
the Prime Minister think it is in the national interest to tell his | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
backbenchers one thing to quell a rebellion on Europe, and tell his | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
European partners another. Labour leader knows some on the | :06:16. | :06:20. | |
Tory benchers are not convinced Mr Cameron has a clear negotiating | :06:20. | :06:23. | |
position. Something Conservative commentators are now drawing | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
attention to. In the light of what's happened in the past, when | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
prime ministers have talked tough in Britain, and then gone to | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
negotiate in Brussels, do you think Conservative politicians are | :06:35. | :06:37. | |
prepared to trust the Prime Minister at this stage? Absolutely | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
not. Actually I think there is quite a lot in Ed Milliband's | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
criticism that there is a tendency to say one thing to backbenchers, | :06:44. | :06:49. | |
and to hope, to be able to, when it comes to it, to say something | :06:49. | :06:52. | |
different to European leaders. I think the more times that happens, | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
the greater the danger that the parliamentary party and the | :06:56. | :06:59. | |
Conservative Party in general switches decisively into the whole | :06:59. | :07:04. | |
"get out of the EU" camp. One of the party's big beasts is talking | :07:04. | :07:09. | |
tougher still, by using the "r" word. It is absolutely clear to me, | :07:09. | :07:15. | |
that if there is a new treaty at 27, if there is a new EU treaty that | :07:15. | :07:22. | |
creates a kind of fiscal union, within the 27 countries, or within | :07:22. | :07:27. | |
the eurozone, then we would have absolutely no choice, either to | :07:27. | :07:33. | |
veto it, or put it to a Reverend DUP. The London ofgs of the -- | :07:33. | :07:38. | |
Referendum. The London office was once the Conservative Party office, | :07:38. | :07:45. | |
there could be a similar takeover in Europe, with the 17 fiscally | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
joined and marginalising countries like Britain on the outside. Some | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
have said the British Government is rudderless at the moment, and | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
unprepared for what is coming next, and despite the bulldog rhetoric | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
from Mr Cameron, his bark will turn out to be worse than his bite. | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
In an interview to be published tomorrow, the cabinet minister, | :08:05. | :08:10. | |
Owen Paterson, warns that fiscal union would create a new block. | :08:10. | :08:20. | |
:08:20. | :08:25. | ||
Asked if that should trigger a -- British referendum, he replied : | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
As Mr Paterson's parliamentary aide has been telling me tonight, Tories | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
see this summit as a unique opportunity, they don't want the | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
Prime Minister to miss it. reality is, that in order to have a | :08:36. | :08:38. | |
new treaty there has to be unanimity amongst the 27, that is | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
the opportunity which has presented itself today, which may never | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
present itself again. We have to use the opportunity, where we could | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
say no, to extract from our partners the things we want to | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
protect British interests, jobs and prosperity. I'm sure that's on the | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
Prime Minister's mind. Your boss, Owen Paterson, was a rebel at the | :08:59. | :09:02. | |
time of Maastricht, unhappy with the Conservative's position. Does | :09:02. | :09:07. | |
he regard this as a resigning matter potentially? I don't think | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
anyone's in the position of resigning or anything. We are | :09:10. | :09:13. | |
talking about backing the Prime Minister as he goes to the summit, | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
to try to get powers back for Britain and out of the eurozone, | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
and which they have inflicted on themselves by not obeying their own | :09:22. | :09:27. | |
rules. Tonight euro-sceptic Tories joined forces with a meeting to | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
agree their tactic, securing a deal in Brussels will be hard enough, | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
selling it at Westminster could be even tougher. With us now to | :09:35. | :09:40. | |
discuss David Cameron's dilemma are Sir Malcolm Rifkind, John Major's | :09:40. | :09:46. | |
Foreign Secretary in the 1990s, and remembers all too well the party's | :09:46. | :09:51. | |
battles over Europe, and Nadine Dorries, an MP who doesn't yet bear | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
those scars. Do you firstly believe that David Cameron will go to the | :09:54. | :09:59. | |
meeting and defend British interests? To an extent. Do you | :09:59. | :10:08. | |
want the euro to survive? I think it is time for the euro to | :10:08. | :10:13. | |
dismantled in an orderly way. the member states of the euro to | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
decide they didn't agree with you, they wanted it to survive and came | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
to some arrangement between themselves about co-ordinating tax | :10:20. | :10:25. | |
and the like, that would be all right, or not? Then it's time for a | :10:25. | :10:31. | |
referendum. On that third point, which seems a quite likely outcome, | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
if the Merkel-Sarkozy letter is put into effect, it would change the | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
game, wouldn't it? Not in a sense that is being implied. Let's be | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
very straight forward as to where we are. Europe is in an incredibly | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
fragile state. If the European Summit collapses on Friday, because | :10:48. | :10:53. | |
of a lack and inability to reach agreement, that is very serious, | :10:53. | :11:01. | |
not just for the eurozone countries, for Britain as well. Now that means | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
that the tough approach required by David Cameron is perfectly | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
reasonable if he concentrates on issues relevant to the crisis, such | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
as the potential threat to the City of London. If he make that is a | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
condition for his consent, then he's entitled to be as tough as | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
required. But if we were to have debates and discussions on fli, | :11:18. | :11:23. | |
about whether we should re-- Friday, about whether we should repatriate | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
the Common Fisheries Policy or the Working Time Directive or things of | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
that kind, the rest of the world would be aghast if the European | :11:32. | :11:38. | |
economy was veering towards problems. I think Malcolm is | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
falling victim to making outrageous claims. All we need to do to defend | :11:42. | :11:47. | |
the City from the transaction tax is to say no. All this flim flam | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
about the Prime Minister going to defend, he will come back on Friday | :11:52. | :11:56. | |
waving a flag with prosperity of our time on it, defending the City. | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
This will be the story that comes back. That is a good thing isn't it, | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
if he has done that? There is no saving to be done, we will say no, | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
we won't have the transaction tax. If he does that he's looking after | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
British interests by his own lights? He can do that in 30 | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
seconds. The big issue that needs to be debated is whether or not | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
there will be a eurozone a block of 17 countries, if there are, and | :12:20. | :12:25. | |
that is what is decided and we are part of the 27 of the outer ring, | :12:25. | :12:30. | |
then that, inner union, will affect our economy, and that will be bad | :12:30. | :12:36. | |
for us, that's what we want him to defend. We want him to defend us | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
from that happening. So stop the 17? There is only one outcome for | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
us. If the 17 have a union, and let's admit, two other countries | :12:44. | :12:50. | |
have already been taken over by technocrats. We need that | :12:50. | :12:55. | |
referendum. The British people have no say on this. I'm so sorry, | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
Malcolm Rifkind can speak for himself. There is a fundamental gap | :12:59. | :13:05. | |
with the real world in what we are being told. The reality is that no- | :13:05. | :13:09. | |
one country, whether it is the UK or any other country, can simply | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
dictate to all the rest, even the Germans can't do that, they have to | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
get agreement from their allies. The idea that David Cameron goes to | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
a summit and says he's going to veto the summit, this agreement, | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
and everybody else wishes to go forward, regardless of the | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
implications for the European economy, regardless for the | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
reactions of the markets, including our interest rates, as well as | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
those in other countries, unless you give me concessions on matters | :13:31. | :13:36. | |
that are not relevant to this immediate European crisis. We all | :13:36. | :13:40. | |
know perfectly well that if there is to be a repatriation of powers, | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
that will be a lengthy negotiation, even if it was successful. I was | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
Margaret Thatcher's Europe minister, it didn't come much tougher than | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
Margaret Thatcher. When she went into a negotiation, she never made | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
unrealistic demands, she never said she insisted on this, regardless of | :13:56. | :13:59. | |
the consequences for the British economy, never mind your own | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
economies. What she said was, she identified what was deliverable, | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
and what's deliverable on Friday is agreement on dropping this | :14:08. | :14:14. | |
ridiculous transaction tax, what is deliverable on Friday is an | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
understanding that there are other issues, important to the UK, which | :14:18. | :14:23. | |
may need to be considered. Angela Merkel has already quoted that she | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
will being will to give constructive consideration to the | :14:26. | :14:31. | |
kien of changes on the -- kind the changes on the employment directive | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
David Cameron has been raising. You have to be negotiating in a | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
sensible, practical way, not saying you demand this or that, regardless | :14:38. | :14:42. | |
of the consequences, that is not the real world we live in. When you | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
have already made the statement that if there is to be any further | :14:45. | :14:50. | |
loss of sovereign power, or power, to Europe, then we will have a | :14:50. | :14:54. | |
treaty, or a treaty. That is the law. We will have a referendum, we | :14:54. | :14:58. | |
are now in that position. If there is a block of 17 countries in a | :14:58. | :15:03. | |
union, that will impact on us, and on our economy. It will bring about | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
changes to our economy, and therefore, we have to have a | :15:08. | :15:13. | |
referendum. People out there in 1973 voted for a Common Market. | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
They didn't vote to be part of a two-tier eurozone, where 17 | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
countries in effect become one country, we are on the outer ring. | :15:20. | :15:25. | |
They didn't vote for that. The act you and I voted for, and is now the | :15:25. | :15:30. | |
law of the land, says if the United Kingdom Government proposes to | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
surrender or transfer sovereignty to Europe, in any new area, there | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
must be a referendum. That is not what is being proposed on Friday. | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
If those countries are in the eurozone, which are only 17 of the | :15:42. | :15:48. | |
27, if they wish to transfer more of their power to Brussels, that is | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
their business. The change of power been the European Union is | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
something people should surely be allowed vote on? I'm not saying | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
they are not important issues, I'm saying the obligation to have a | :15:58. | :16:03. | |
referendum, is not when there is any kind of any change in Europe, | :16:03. | :16:09. | |
it is when there is a surrender or a desire to surrender sovereignty | :16:09. | :16:13. | |
by a British Government. This is a new situation, the 17 countries | :16:13. | :16:21. | |
becoming one union is very knew. New. They are already one country. | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
What is being proposed is very different. This hasn't been on the | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
table before. It is going through at a speed that people can't | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
understand what is happening. Even the use of the word "sovereign", my | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
constituents ask what does it mean, when it is explain it is the | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
transfer of our powers for someone else to be making our policies and | :16:40. | :16:43. | |
dictating to us. They don't like the sound of that. This is all | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
moving very fast, we need to acknowledge what people want and | :16:46. | :16:50. | |
give them the referendum. It is very important for people like | :16:50. | :16:56. | |
yourself not to mislead the public, and imply something. For give me, | :16:56. | :17:02. | |
let me -- Forgive me, let me finish the sentence, and not imply that | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
transferring British sovereignty is in practice that, that is not a | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
proper way to try to take the debate forward. We will know in a | :17:09. | :17:17. | |
cop of -- couple of days, and the euro may collapse any way. The make | :17:17. | :17:21. | |
or break meeting will roll into other meetings. Confidence is all, | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
supposing the joint strategy of Merkel-Sarkozy fails, what then? | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
There are emergency plans being laid in the UK and the EU, but they | :17:29. | :17:35. | |
are secret. We asked Paul Mason to try to war game a eurogeddon | :17:35. | :17:38. | |
scenario. Here at the Treasury, though they hope tomorrow's summit | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
will be a success, they are planning for all eventualities, | :17:42. | :17:47. | |
including a euro break-up. Most people are oblivious, and results | :17:47. | :17:53. | |
will remain behind closed doors. are undertaking extensive | :17:53. | :17:57. | |
contingency planning to dial with all potentially outcomes of the | :17:57. | :18:02. | |
euro crisis. To show what might be happening behind closed doors, we | :18:02. | :18:07. | |
have assembled three people whose real life roles might have involved | :18:07. | :18:13. | |
them in this kind of contingency planning. Kitty Ussher was a | :18:13. | :18:17. | |
Treasury minister under Gordon Brown, Sir Martin Jacomb sat on the | :18:17. | :18:21. | |
board of the Bank of England, Jon Moulton is a prominent investor. In | :18:21. | :18:26. | |
this room, I will ask them, in real time, to confront one of the | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
scenarios Britain might face. Good morning everybody and welcome. | :18:30. | :18:39. | |
Thank you for coming. There have been some events. The sin flairyo | :18:39. | :18:44. | |
begins with a Greek -- the scenario begins with a Greek default and an | :18:44. | :18:50. | |
exit from the euro, not a catastrophy for Britain but | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
bringing fears. There is now a 90% chance of a Greek default before | :18:54. | :18:58. | |
the end of January, in an hour's time the PM and the cabinet | :18:58. | :19:03. | |
secretary walk through that door, we have to come up with a response. | :19:04. | :19:08. | |
I think the first duty of the British Government, and the Bank of | :19:08. | :19:14. | |
England, and the other regulators, including the FSA, is to make sure | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
they safeguard the British banking system. Because without that | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
everything fall ace part. completely agree with that. If we | :19:23. | :19:30. | |
think that Greece is very likely to default, questionable -- question | :19:30. | :19:34. | |
is how much exposure do we have to Greek debt, that will be worthless. | :19:34. | :19:37. | |
It is all about the financial system and the knock-on effect, | :19:37. | :19:42. | |
Greeks failing to pay their debts, meaning that Cypriot banks fail, | :19:42. | :19:46. | |
German banks fail, French banks fail, and then all of a sudden you | :19:46. | :19:51. | |
have massive exposure from the UK to a relatively small event and a | :19:51. | :19:57. | |
country that is less than 3% of the European GDP. | :19:57. | :20:03. | |
What do we do, in the next 30 days. If the main focus is banking, what | :20:03. | :20:08. | |
practically do you do? There needs to be a new stress test regime for | :20:08. | :20:14. | |
all the major financial institutions. Their books need to | :20:15. | :20:20. | |
be put through the wringer in the light of the new environment. The | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
worst possible case scenario needs to be modelled to see if they can | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
remain trading. The problem is most of them will fail that test. So if | :20:27. | :20:33. | |
it is done properly. So the only thing the Government can do is | :20:33. | :20:37. | |
promise absolutely, we will do whatever we have to do to print | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
money, chuck money in all directions, support everything. | :20:40. | :20:46. | |
Because there will be no practical alternative. But, in the end, our | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
trouble shooters were clear about the action Government will have to | :20:49. | :20:58. | |
take. We have no choice, we have to bail out the systemically important | :20:58. | :21:01. | |
banks. That is true, but two of our British banks are already | :21:01. | :21:05. | |
nationalised, RBS, Lloyd's and Barclays is perfectly well | :21:05. | :21:09. | |
capitalised. I don't think there is a risk of that, provided nobody | :21:09. | :21:19. | |
makes a big of -- as big a mess of it. It is different from 2008 | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
because there is advanced discussions about how to pay for | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
bailouts. There are living wills for institutions to work out how to | :21:27. | :21:31. | |
have a structured dissolution, we know we can allow banks to fail if | :21:31. | :21:37. | |
we need to. Is anybody prepared to allow a UK bank to fail at this | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
jubgture? You can't allow a bank that is systemically important to | :21:40. | :21:45. | |
fail. You can certainly allow it to go into a situation where there are | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
living wills taking effect, and all the shareholders lose all their | :21:50. | :21:53. | |
money. We are looking at a situation where losses beyond the | :21:53. | :22:01. | |
equity are all too conceivable. That is really very difficult. | :22:01. | :22:04. | |
Wiping out the shareholders won't be enough and the banks won't be | :22:04. | :22:10. | |
able to repay their debt in full. That means the banks will need | :22:10. | :22:16. | |
support to keep systemically banks going. What do we tell the British | :22:16. | :22:20. | |
public about who is first in the queue about losing their money? | :22:20. | :22:22. | |
don't think we tell the British public anything. I'm pointing out | :22:23. | :22:26. | |
that you a former minister, you don't tell them anything? Not at | :22:26. | :22:30. | |
this stage, unless you want a run on a bank. I don't think we are | :22:30. | :22:35. | |
near that kind of danger. But the contingency planning should have | :22:35. | :22:38. | |
one thing, first and foremost, at the top of the list, that is the | :22:38. | :22:43. | |
ability of businesses to operate their normal banking mechanisms and | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
consumers to have access to their cash. That is the most important | :22:46. | :22:49. | |
thing. You have to prepare them for something, it is almost | :22:49. | :22:54. | |
inconceivable event we are talking about, won't lead to the | :22:54. | :22:58. | |
deleverageing further of banks, banks getting smaller, less credit | :22:58. | :23:03. | |
into the economy, and a weaker economy. | :23:03. | :23:09. | |
At this point, in the scenario, the IMF and OECD warn that British | :23:09. | :23:14. | |
growth will be lower, Britain's budget, already tightened last week, | :23:14. | :23:21. | |
would then need tightening some more. Other fiscal trajebgt trees | :23:21. | :23:28. | |
for a Greek exit and dire situation economically. Would we have to say | :23:28. | :23:33. | |
to the Chancellor, you need some kient of Plan B, even if it is only | :23:34. | :23:43. | |
:23:44. | :23:53. | ||
Plan A+ plus, even if he has to tighten it even more. I would say | :23:53. | :24:01. | |
that taxes were easing, in so far as it would affect effective | :24:01. | :24:07. | |
business, that mean any of those retired or on benefits, we shall | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
continue to:. The Government will have no money, no money coming from | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
exports, consumers haven't any money, business has some money, but | :24:13. | :24:17. | |
they are too frightened to invest it, given what is going on. The | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
only option the Government has is to create markets to give business | :24:20. | :24:25. | |
the confidence to invest, that is the only way we will getting a gate | :24:25. | :24:31. | |
demand, growth into the economy, given that -- aggregate demand, | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
growth in the economy. Very hard to say we shouldn't be pushing | :24:35. | :24:40. | |
everything we can to make productive industry activity to | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
return to the UK in volume. They are saying, hold on a minute, | :24:43. | :24:48. | |
what you told us in November, it is worse than that, and you have never | :24:48. | :24:52. | |
touched the NHS, you have two aircraft carriers you seem to want | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
to build despite the fact you will never use them. Who will tell the | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
PM that the NHS will have to be, do we have to think about that? | :24:59. | :25:04. | |
Somebody will have to. contingency planners were by now at | :25:04. | :25:07. | |
the political heart of darkness, this was the mildest of the | :25:07. | :25:14. | |
scenarios we had come up with. Worse, we made the crisis using the | :25:14. | :25:20. | |
roll of the dice, and the more impotent they felt. The list of | :25:20. | :25:24. | |
scenarios is bigger than in the last 20 years, we could go this way, | :25:24. | :25:27. | |
that way, the euro could fail, high interest rates, low interest rates. | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
It is terribly difficult, I think we really want a Government that | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
looks down at all possiblities. Thinks about them all, tries to | :25:34. | :25:41. | |
respond. They will probably fail, but they have to at least try. | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
All the Prime Minister and cabinet secretary are on their way. By the | :25:45. | :25:48. | |
end the solutions for the worst case were not much different than | :25:48. | :25:53. | |
for the mildest. Save the banks, take hard fiscal choices and let | :25:53. | :25:58. | |
others worry about saving the euro. How likely is that sort of | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
situation to come to pass? And what can, or should be done to prevent | :26:02. | :26:09. | |
it? These two may be able to shed some light, We have the chief | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
economics commentator of the Financial Times, spending ten years | :26:13. | :26:18. | |
as a senior economist at the Central Bank. Ian Bremmer is | :26:18. | :26:21. | |
President of Eurasia Group. Apparently there is a lot of this | :26:21. | :26:25. | |
modelling going on, what sort of thing are they planning for? | :26:25. | :26:28. | |
suspect that they are not really planning for these sorts of | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
disasters. They might be planning for a Greek exit. But in the | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
eurozone, I think they are planning for the thing to continue. What | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
they are trying to do is set up a situation in which the European | :26:41. | :26:44. | |
Central Bank engages really seriously. There have been some | :26:44. | :26:47. | |
indications in the last week that is what will happen. They think | :26:47. | :26:50. | |
they will get through with it. Is that right? That is a very good | :26:50. | :26:54. | |
question. I don't think they are planning, seriously, for a break up. | :26:54. | :26:57. | |
We will come to the point of whether it will work or not in a | :26:57. | :27:03. | |
second or two, but the companies you advise, they are presumably | :27:03. | :27:08. | |
strategyising things, through modelling -- strategy guiseing | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
things through, modelling things. They are getting a lot of questions | :27:11. | :27:18. | |
about what is the likelihood of a eurozone break-up. It is thinkable, | :27:18. | :27:23. | |
but thinkable, a war between Israel and Iran is thinkable, that doesn't | :27:23. | :27:28. | |
mean we think it is a likely scenario. The euro breaking up | :27:28. | :27:33. | |
doesn't seem likely for the time frame these folks are considering. | :27:34. | :27:39. | |
Time frame? Over a year. Muddle through is the most likely outcome, | :27:39. | :27:44. | |
especially moving towards a fiscal pact on Friday. That was a model of | :27:44. | :27:49. | |
a Greek default rather than the whole of the euro breaking up. What | :27:49. | :27:53. | |
is your prognosis, one year, do you want to raise him another year or | :27:53. | :27:59. | |
two? I think that they have the resources and almost certainly the | :27:59. | :28:02. | |
will. They have the resources because they have a Central Bank | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
that will create money that people will hold. There is no doubt people | :28:06. | :28:11. | |
will hold the euro. If the European Central Bank is brought in to | :28:11. | :28:16. | |
purchase and intervene in the debt markets, the public debt of most of | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
these countries rolls over slowly, it will continue to pay high | :28:19. | :28:24. | |
interest rates for a long time. As long as the political process and | :28:24. | :28:26. | |
the affected countries are reasonably stable, they can keep | :28:26. | :28:31. | |
the things going for quite a while. The thought it will all end | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
tomorrow strikes me as wildly implausible. He says not worrying | :28:34. | :28:39. | |
about it for a year or so? I would say longer than that. I'm not | :28:39. | :28:44. | |
worried about break up for a year or so. A default by a country is | :28:44. | :28:48. | |
possible in that period, d doesn't lead to break up. We have to be | :28:48. | :28:51. | |
clear that there is a tremendous investment here, in Britain we tend | :28:51. | :28:55. | |
to assume it will all be over much too easily. I think that is right. | :28:56. | :29:01. | |
I also think the willingness of the Germans to ultimately backstop the | :29:01. | :29:04. | |
eurozone is very different from the willingness of the Germans to say | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
they will do that, and the ECB should be the lender of last resort, | :29:09. | :29:14. | |
taiinging away all moral hazarz. When you are playing -- taking away | :29:14. | :29:22. | |
all the moral hazarz. I understand that Merkel has not said let's do | :29:22. | :29:32. | |
:29:32. | :29:32. | ||
eurobonds. She has said let as not do them now. There is enormous | :29:32. | :29:37. | |
support for the continent of Europe. What about the letter that Merkel | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
and Sarkozy have sent to Mr Van Rompuy, there are various tactics | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
in there, applying to the 17 members of the eurozone. Do they | :29:45. | :29:49. | |
strike you as coherent and likely to work or feasible? I think they | :29:50. | :29:53. | |
are sufficiently coherent to work for the time being. What we are | :29:53. | :29:58. | |
doing is we are buying ourselves more capacity to muddle through. | :29:58. | :30:03. | |
The most important point is on Monday the ECB will feel they can | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
turn the taps on to a greater degree. That is what the markets | :30:06. | :30:12. | |
are looking for. They want to see what the ECB can do next week, they | :30:12. | :30:16. | |
will not provide the bazooka, but they can provide more time. They | :30:16. | :30:19. | |
are doing enough to probably make it survive, we can't give a precise | :30:19. | :30:24. | |
date, of when that will fail, but, they are not beginning to do enough | :30:24. | :30:31. | |
to make it work well. The question is can you keep currency union | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
together, for very long, nobody knows what the period will be, if | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
significant numbers of players feel it is not really working for us. I | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
think it is very, very likely there will be a situation that a lot of | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
countries will feel that. The problem with acting on that is | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
leaving is also an absolute disaster. What you have in the real | :30:49. | :30:54. | |
nightmare to me, in fact, the most likely nightmare, is you have a | :30:54. | :30:57. | |
eurozone that just really doesn't work very well. In all sorts of | :30:57. | :31:01. | |
ways it really doesn't work very well. It doesn't grow, the | :31:01. | :31:06. | |
adjustments don't work, and some countries in permanent recession, | :31:06. | :31:10. | |
but they don't have the nerve to leave. It is a very miserable | :31:10. | :31:15. | |
marriages, and they can go on for a very long time. The Greeks are | :31:15. | :31:24. | |
taking pain, and 7% of Greeks -- 78% of Greeks are in support for | :31:25. | :31:30. | |
the euro. There is no massive support among the peripheral | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
countries taking massive economic strain to move away from the | :31:33. | :31:38. | |
eurozone. It seems a prerequisite with | :31:38. | :31:47. | |
keeping the patient on the life support, never find taking it for a | :31:47. | :31:52. | |
walk, that democracy is suspended? The question is how much democracy | :31:52. | :31:55. | |
did you give up. I believe part of the problem in the eurozone is not | :31:56. | :31:59. | |
the lack of fiscal union it is the lack of a children's table. When I | :31:59. | :32:03. | |
was a kid growing up, you didn't give me sharp untensils because the | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
family pet would have been damaged, over time that changes. In Europe | :32:07. | :32:10. | |
that hasn't been the case, there will be a symmetry in the | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
fundamentals of the union whatever we do. Is it ever going to work | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
really well? Probably not, there are gigantic problems inherent in | :32:20. | :32:24. | |
putting these countries together. They have incredible | :32:24. | :32:26. | |
competitiveness problems which they will find difficult to resolve. | :32:26. | :32:30. | |
Obvious low they find Governments imposed upon them they haven't | :32:30. | :32:32. | |
chosen. They didn't like the democratic Governments they had | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
before. As Ian said, once you went into the currency union you gave up | :32:37. | :32:40. | |
an awful lot of sovereignty, they are discovering they are losing | :32:40. | :32:45. | |
more and more. Can such a structure operate, yes, is it democratic in | :32:45. | :32:49. | |
the way we think about it, not in my view, that is why I'm happy we | :32:49. | :32:52. | |
are not part of it. You can take your hand out from | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
country the back of the sofa, a respected scientist at the CERN | :32:57. | :33:01. | |
particle physics laboratory has told Newsnight, exclusively, that | :33:01. | :33:06. | |
he expects to see the first glimpse of the Higgs boson next week, when | :33:06. | :33:09. | |
they reveal their latest data. They have spent 30 or so years and | :33:09. | :33:13. | |
countless millions looking for this missing piece of the jigsaw in our | :33:13. | :33:18. | |
understanding of particle physics. The famous boson is named after | :33:18. | :33:23. | |
Peter Higgs, an Edinburgh University physicists who first | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
proposed its existence in the 1960s. Our science editor has the story. | :33:28. | :33:31. | |
Tremenduously exciting? I spent the day at CERN yesterday, there is a | :33:31. | :33:37. | |
real sense of excitement, a buzz in the cannot teens there. There are | :33:37. | :33:41. | |
are you -- canteens there. There are rumours on the Internet. This | :33:41. | :33:47. | |
is all because there is an announcement next Tuesday, the | :33:47. | :33:51. | |
press have been invited long, and two separate teams who have been | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
looking for the Higgs boson will present their data. Finding Higgs | :33:55. | :34:01. | |
boson has been described as the Holy Grail of physics. If it exists | :34:01. | :34:04. | |
it helps us understand the standard model. It will be the crucial | :34:04. | :34:13. | |
missing piece in the jigsaw of the standard model. That is the process | :34:13. | :34:16. | |
physicists understand the way particles fit together. Without the | :34:16. | :34:20. | |
Higgs, this standard model doesn't make sense. The two teams of | :34:20. | :34:23. | |
scientists are going to be reporting, independent of each | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
other, using different detectors. Now, officially, these two teams | :34:27. | :34:33. | |
don't talk to each other, they are sworn to secrecy, all the are you | :34:33. | :34:40. | |
mores are of a possible sighting of the -- are are you mores are the | :34:40. | :34:43. | |
possible sighting of the Higgs boson. The teams are focusing in, | :34:43. | :34:47. | |
ruled out ranges of mass, where they have seen no sign of the Higgs. | :34:47. | :34:52. | |
What does the Higgs look like? Women come on to that. I asked the | :34:52. | :34:57. | |
former head -- We will come on to. That I asked the former head of | :34:57. | :35:03. | |
theoretical physics at CERN how close does he think we are of | :35:03. | :35:07. | |
seeing boson? I think we will get the first glimpse, the experiments | :35:07. | :35:12. | |
have looked high and low for this missing piece, it could be that it | :35:12. | :35:15. | |
weighs several hundred times the proton mass, that seems unlikely. | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
There is a whole interimmediate range where we know it cannot be. | :35:19. | :35:23. | |
Then there is a low mass range, which is actually where we expect | :35:23. | :35:28. | |
it to be, it seems maybe there is some hints emerging there. That is | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
what we will learn on Tuesday. lot of stuff about seems, he's not | :35:32. | :35:36. | |
saying they have found this thing, is he? It is not definitive yet. | :35:37. | :35:41. | |
They can't claim to have found the Higgs boson, that is because there | :35:41. | :35:45. | |
isn't enough experimental data from the Clydeer to claim what is called | :35:45. | :35:53. | |
a discovery. It will be a significant milestone. What is this | :35:53. | :35:59. | |
thing? It is notoriously difficult to define. We asked Peter Higgs to | :35:59. | :36:09. | |
tell us how it worked. This is the best he could do. Waves in this | :36:09. | :36:13. | |
qant fee that oscillates up and down -- quantity that oslails up | :36:13. | :36:23. | |
and down the trofs. That caused a lot of giggles. Professor John | :36:23. | :36:29. | |
Ellis does a pretty good job. standard model is a bunch of | :36:29. | :36:33. | |
building bricks, blocks like the electron, that is a thing that goes | :36:33. | :36:40. | |
around at tomorrows, the Quarks are things that make up -- atoms, the | :36:40. | :36:50. | |
Quarks are things that make up the atoms. The whole thing would fall | :36:50. | :36:55. | |
down if we can't have a cap stone, sitting there, in the middle there, | :36:55. | :36:59. | |
that cap stone tells us which particles have mass, which don't, | :36:59. | :37:04. | |
that cap stone, which makes a whole standard model hang together, that | :37:04. | :37:14. | |
:37:14. | :37:14. | ||
is the Higgs boson. I do hope they recognise it when they find it. | :37:14. | :37:19. | |
will hear more next week if they see hints of the Higgs boson. | :37:19. | :37:23. | |
are becoming an increasingly self- reliant, some would say hard-nosed | :37:23. | :37:28. | |
society. The latest attempt to see what the British public feel about | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
the world they live in, is more of us feel unemployment benefits are | :37:32. | :37:37. | |
too high, and the proportion who think taxes should rise to improve | :37:37. | :37:41. | |
public services has halved. The Prime Minister really took the | :37:41. | :37:45. | |
findings that he has his finger on the pulse, claiming people want to | :37:45. | :37:48. | |
end the something for nothing society. Steve Smith, so interested | :37:48. | :37:55. | |
in the Big Society, we have dubbed him Citizen Smith has more. | :37:55. | :37:59. | |
Previously, have you seen our Citizen Smith feature before? No, | :37:59. | :38:05. | |
in that case it is a much-loved and award-friendly segment, about David | :38:05. | :38:15. | |
:38:15. | :38:27. | ||
Cameron's Big Society at the grass roots. | :38:28. | :38:32. | |
Ahmed Kabba, originally from Sierra Leone, but has lived here for 20 | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
years, was one of the Guinea pigs on the first community organiser | :38:36. | :38:40. | |
course this autumn. He was learning how to recruit his neighbours to | :38:40. | :38:44. | |
get things done in their community. Which happens to be the challenging | :38:44. | :38:51. | |
Inner London postcode of Peckham. The PM himself called in at Ahmed's | :38:51. | :39:01. | |
:39:01. | :39:06. | ||
local cafe, to see how he was We couldn't think of a better idea, | :39:06. | :39:13. | |
so we rewound the same scenario. Ahmed was so keen on recruiting he | :39:13. | :39:20. | |
had a go with me. Show me what you do? Hello, how are you. How are you | :39:21. | :39:27. | |
doing? So-so. Do you live local? I'm a community organiser. What is | :39:27. | :39:31. | |
that? It is reaching out to the local community and asking specific | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
questions, about your vision. you get a sense from people, | :39:35. | :39:40. | |
perhaps the ones who are working here, that they resent people who | :39:40. | :39:45. | |
are on benefits? Is there any sense of that, as in this survey or not? | :39:45. | :39:49. | |
I haven't had anything like that in terms of people on benefit, or what | :39:49. | :39:54. | |
people are doing down the street. The concern they will have is not | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
about individuals, it is about collective community, in terms of | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
anything that is happening around them that they don't like, or they | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
would like to see improved. But others see things differently, | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
more than half of us think that unemployment benefit is too | :40:09. | :40:15. | |
generous. Rewind back to 1983, and just over a third of us did. | :40:15. | :40:20. | |
Only 31% support tax rises to pay for health and education. It used | :40:20. | :40:24. | |
to be 63%. People increasingly are looking to | :40:24. | :40:30. | |
others to be more self-reliant, and look less to Government to solve | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
problems. Whilst they are still concerned about the gap between | :40:33. | :40:38. | |
rich and poor, everybody thinks the gap is too wide. They think | :40:38. | :40:43. | |
unemployment benefits are too high and discourage people from finding | :40:43. | :40:47. | |
work. And there is no appetite from Government to do more | :40:47. | :40:51. | |
redistribution of wealth from rich to power. On Twitter David Cameron | :40:51. | :40:56. | |
said people were making it clear they had enough of the something | :40:56. | :41:01. | |
for nothing culture. Not everyone thinks it is good for Government? | :41:01. | :41:07. | |
It is good for Cameron's talk about benefits being too much and the | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
state support, I don't think it is useful for people want to go | :41:10. | :41:16. | |
collaberate, it speaks to a society where people are circling their | :41:16. | :41:18. | |
wagons and thinking about themselves and their families, | :41:18. | :41:21. | |
rather than cleaning up the local graveyard. Good for him in the | :41:21. | :41:26. | |
short-term, but in the long-term not so good. Unfortunately this is | :41:26. | :41:31. | |
hardly the first time in living memory that Britain has been in a | :41:31. | :41:35. | |
recession. What you are seeing is a similar hardening of public | :41:35. | :41:38. | |
attitudes towards people on benefits, towards the size of the | :41:38. | :41:45. | |
state, generally. That happened in the late 1970s, when Labour was | :41:45. | :41:49. | |
seen simply as being profligate. That comes in at the end of the | :41:49. | :41:52. | |
Social Democratic periods, it reflects what was going on two or | :41:52. | :41:59. | |
three years ago more than what's happening now. Stkph Ahmed Kabba | :41:59. | :42:03. | |
and others -- Ahmed Kabba and others are fired up by community | :42:03. | :42:08. | |
organisers, but the problem is the Big Society, might not be as big | :42:08. | :42:13. | |
hearted as people wish. Two local MPs are with me now, | :42:13. | :42:17. | |
Margaret Hodge, and Jesse Norman, who has published books about | :42:17. | :42:22. | |
compassionate Conservatism and the Big Society. What do you think has | :42:22. | :42:28. | |
happened? This was a snapshot, it was, July 2010 when Jesse and I had | :42:28. | :42:33. | |
been out on the stomp. At that point we were coming out of the | :42:33. | :42:37. | |
previous recession, people were feeling very insecure. You are | :42:37. | :42:41. | |
looking cynically at me. We know roughly when it was taken, what | :42:41. | :42:45. | |
does it tell us about what has happened? At that time people were | :42:45. | :42:54. | |
feeling insecure. They were feeling angry. Therefore you come in on | :42:54. | :43:00. | |
yourself in that sort of an environment. You tend to think | :43:00. | :43:04. | |
other people are getting everything, I'm not getting enough myself. That | :43:04. | :43:07. | |
was an attitude at that time. I think the contributor who talked | :43:07. | :43:13. | |
about the end of the Labour Government, when things were better, | :43:13. | :43:16. | |
you know the investment in schools had gone up, the investment in | :43:16. | :43:23. | |
hospitals had gone up. I think it was a different era, at a snapshot. | :43:23. | :43:28. | |
What is your analysis? My analysis is people were looking ahead and | :43:28. | :43:33. | |
looking at a long dark tunnel of economic stagnation. It is hardly | :43:33. | :43:37. | |
better since? No. They found an awful lot of money spent over the | :43:37. | :43:41. | |
past few years had been wasted, and they thought maybe Government is | :43:41. | :43:44. | |
not doing the job it should be doing and we need to look for | :43:44. | :43:49. | |
alternatives. That is why there is a turning away from retis tribbuegs | :43:49. | :43:54. | |
and on to community. Let's -- Redistribution to the community. | :43:54. | :43:58. | |
Let's not let into party politics. There may be other things, it may | :43:58. | :44:02. | |
be a matter of politics or economics, it may be that society | :44:02. | :44:07. | |
has in some way matured into a different sort of being, to the | :44:07. | :44:12. | |
sort of people, perhaps we are slightly older than you, but people | :44:12. | :44:16. | |
we grew up with? The attitudes towards benefits have changed. They | :44:16. | :44:22. | |
started to change, when Labour came in we started saying work is the | :44:22. | :44:26. | |
root out of poverty. We started creating that different settlement | :44:26. | :44:30. | |
out of welfare state from where we were in the post-war era. We | :44:30. | :44:35. | |
shouldn't be surprised of that. To inject a fact into this, | :44:35. | :44:43. | |
unemployment benefit, in the 1970s was about 12.5% of national average | :44:43. | :44:48. | |
male earnings. Now it is 7% of average national male earnings. It | :44:48. | :44:52. | |
has got less generous, that doesn't mean the attitude is less there, | :44:52. | :44:58. | |
and there are few people who ought to be working who presently are | :44:58. | :45:00. | |
working. Do you get a sense we are less kind to one another, this | :45:01. | :45:05. | |
slogan your leader had, I'm not being party political here, "we are | :45:05. | :45:10. | |
all in it together", people feel it less now? I don't think so. I think | :45:10. | :45:15. | |
they look around, it is a matter of politics, looking at the past, | :45:15. | :45:20. | |
looking at the future. It is culture also, they can see crony | :45:21. | :45:25. | |
capitalism that has sprung up. People who have been taking very | :45:25. | :45:30. | |
hygiene fits in some case s which they didn't seem to be deserving. | :45:30. | :45:36. | |
You are getting a recalibration of values. I don't think people are | :45:36. | :45:38. | |
becoming celebration, but they are taking the compassion they have and | :45:39. | :45:43. | |
focusing on the community, and not trusting the state to do things it | :45:43. | :45:47. | |
can't do. Does Britain feel like that to you? It is a more | :45:47. | :45:51. | |
compassionate and caring place than it was? It does, oddly, it is a | :45:51. | :45:57. | |
country looking hard at the sources of what actually matter in people's | :45:57. | :46:01. | |
lives, and coming to the conclusion that it is not just about money but | :46:01. | :46:04. | |
linkage and community. I think it is about insecurity, people's | :46:04. | :46:08. | |
living standards going down and they turn in on themselves, that is | :46:08. | :46:13. | |
what's happening. On the role of the state and public expenditure, | :46:13. | :46:17. | |
the concept is one that people recoil from, but the reality is one | :46:17. | :46:22. | |
they like. For example, in that survey, they like the NHS, they | :46:22. | :46:27. | |
were happy with it. People want a copper at the end of their street. | :46:27. | :46:30. | |
People want youth facilities in their communities, and they want | :46:30. | :46:34. | |
the parks well looked after. There is a complicated set of attitudes | :46:34. | :46:42. | |
going on here. If you were to take a snapshot in a year's time about | :46:42. | :46:47. | |
attitudes today. You have high unemployment, and they will change | :46:47. | :46:49. | |
again. We will only engage with what we have, is Britain a better | :46:49. | :46:54. | |
place than it was, do you think? Britain a place in terms of the | :46:54. | :47:04. | |
:47:04. | :47:04. | ||
public space? Yes. If you think about into 1997, you think we had | :47:04. | :47:08. | |
outside toil lets in schools, we don't have that now. We did have | :47:08. | :47:18. | |
:47:18. | :47:18. | ||
hospitals falling apart. We don't have that now. You are asking does | :47:19. | :47:22. | |
Britain feel like a place where values are cherished. It doesn't | :47:22. | :47:25. | |
feel like that, but it is recognising the problem and moving | :47:25. | :47:29. | |
in the right direction. I don't know what that means? People are | :47:29. | :47:35. | |
realising. I have to stop you there, apparently we have run out of time. | :47:35. | :47:39. | |
That is all from Newsnight tonight, if only we had more time we could | :47:39. | :47:49. | |
:47:49. | :47:50. | ||
depress and worry you further. We can't. Good night. | :47:50. | :47:54. | |
Some pretty wild weather on its way through tomorrow. It starts off | :47:54. | :47:58. | |
snowy across many northern parts of Scotland. That will turn back to | :47:58. | :48:02. | |
rain before severe gales keep in later on in the day. Heavy rain | :48:02. | :48:06. | |
sweeping across the country, out of Scotland and noerm, into England | :48:06. | :48:11. | |
and Wales. For parts of the Midlands it will turn wet, the band | :48:11. | :48:18. | |
of rain sweeping through will last all day. Ahead of that, cloudy with | :48:18. | :48:23. | |
dribs and drabs, mild, but tempered by the strength of the wind. Wet | :48:23. | :48:26. | |
weather sweeping into south western parts of England later on in the | :48:26. | :48:31. | |
afternoon. It clears through Wales, behind that things will brighten up | :48:31. | :48:35. | |
with sunshine tofl developing across northern parts of Wales. For | :48:35. | :48:38. | |
Northern Ireland sunshine but very strong winds, potentially damaging | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
gusts along the north coast. Scotland where we are most | :48:42. | :48:47. | |
concerned, gusts of up to 80 miles an hour or more. There could be | :48:47. | :48:51. | |
damage construction or power outages, a red warning in force. We | :48:51. | :48:56. | |
are highly confident that there will be some significant damage and | :48:56. | :49:00. | |
disruption from this weather event. Looking further ahead into Friday, | :49:00. | :49:06. |