15/12/2011 Newsnight


15/12/2011

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Kirsty Wark.


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Tonight, now that the euro trashing of David Cameron is starting to

:00:08.:00:14.

subside, here come the Czech Republic and the hur gairians

:00:14.:00:22.

saying they won't sign up to tax harmonisation either. We will ask

:00:22.:00:26.

the Czech ambassador if the EU is unravelling before the treaty is

:00:26.:00:31.

agreed. Also tonight, the British army gets

:00:31.:00:36.

its next deployment orders. It is 13,500 pairs of boots on the ground

:00:36.:00:40.

in London to help keep the Olympics safe. Many will be working under

:00:40.:00:42.

the direction of private security firms.

:00:42.:00:46.

Reflecting in the shock of the year of the Arab Spring, the cry was

:00:46.:00:50.

"democracy", how much of that desire will now be

:00:50.:00:54.

achieved.$$NEWLINE Did we predict all this dizzying dysfunction last

:00:54.:00:58.

year, well, no we didn't. But the result is likely to owe more to

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Arab culture and history, than it is to western notions of freedom

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and equality. I will be talking to a five-star

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cast, including Henry Kissinger, Simon Schama, and a Nobel Prize

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winner. Good evening. The angry red mist

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that has hung over Europe since David Cameron said non to putting

:01:26.:01:32.

Britain's name to an EU-wide treaty change, is starting to turn into a

:01:32.:01:37.

haze of uncertainty, as to which of the 26 countries will be part of it,

:01:37.:01:43.

if it happens at all. The Czech Republic and Hungary said they were

:01:43.:01:49.

against the pact to harmonise tax rates, and the Danes and the Swedes

:01:49.:01:51.

have concerns too over the austerity measures in the deal.

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Tonight it was confirmed British officials will be allowed it take

:01:54.:01:58.

part in talks over a new treaty, despite Mr Cameron's veto. How

:01:58.:02:05.

despite Mr Cameron's veto. How serious is the threat of isolation?

:02:05.:02:11.

1234 the odd man out, the party wrecker, the man who put selfish

:02:11.:02:14.

national interests before the economic well being of a continent.

:02:14.:02:18.

At least, that's what much of the initial European reaction to David

:02:18.:02:21.

Cameron's veto at last week's Brussels summit would have you

:02:21.:02:24.

believe. The reality might be rather

:02:24.:02:28.

different. As the days have gone on, it has become clear that there are

:02:28.:02:33.

politicians and voters in many European countries worried, just as

:02:33.:02:36.

Mr Cameron was, about the implications of closer financial

:02:36.:02:44.

co-ordination. Cameron's veto of this EU treaty

:02:44.:02:47.

quite clearly complicated things a bit more. But it wasn't the only

:02:47.:02:50.

reason, and far from it, that European leaders are now struggling

:02:50.:02:53.

to reach an agreement. Because there is no agreement, even. There

:02:54.:03:00.

are no details, there are no firm deals on the table, this is all in

:03:00.:03:05.

the open. To reduce these very complicated discussions and

:03:05.:03:11.

political debate going on at the moment, to a 26 versus 1 narive is

:03:11.:03:21.
:03:21.:03:21.

incorrect. Last -- last week all the talk was one versus 26, as if

:03:21.:03:26.

Britain had cut itself free, but now it is looking less solid.

:03:26.:03:32.

Countries outside the eurozone, Sweden, Hungary and the Czech

:03:32.:03:36.

Republic expressing serious doubts about signing up to a deal. The

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Czech Republic and the Swedes, who have their own currencies, said

:03:39.:03:43.

they wanted to help stablise the eurozone, but wouldn't risk

:03:43.:03:45.

damaging their own competitive edge, by giving up their independent tax

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policies. TRANSLATION: One of the important

:03:49.:03:54.

conditions for joining the EU inter-governmental pact, is to see

:03:54.:03:58.

what rules the agreement contains, of which we don't know the details.

:03:58.:04:04.

We know for sure in Hungary that we don't wish to join any agreement

:04:04.:04:08.

with steps towards tax harmonisation. Talk of tax

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harmonisation is difficult for all countries who agreed to last week's

:04:10.:04:14.

deal that aren't in the eurozone. Countries outside the your stkron,

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I think, have a bit of a hard time figuring out why they should take

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part in something that is clearly a sign for those member states that

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share the single currency. Look at Sweden, for example, Sweden will

:04:26.:04:31.

possibly be completely debt-free in 2018, 2019, and yet they are now

:04:31.:04:35.

being asked to sign up to rules that are designed to rein in public

:04:35.:04:39.

spendings for countries that have run a large public deficit for

:04:39.:04:43.

years, it doesn't quite make sense. Even within the eurozone there are

:04:43.:04:48.

doubts. The man who will be Nicolas Sarkozy's socialist rival, in next

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spring's presidential elections in France, says he will renegotiate

:04:51.:04:56.

any deal to ensure the country's bugetry independence. The head of

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France's Central Bank was concentrating on attacking Britain,

:05:00.:05:04.

saying London's credit rating should be downgraded. Meanwhile, in

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Germany, one prominent opposition leader complained that last week's

:05:08.:05:11.

deal nearly created a constitutional crisis without

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solving the original problem of the euro. The common theme throughout

:05:16.:05:21.

this eurozone crisis is markets demand a certain type of action

:05:21.:05:25.

that national democracies simply can't deliver. Markets want more

:05:25.:05:29.

fiscal integration, more taxation powers to be concentrated centrally

:05:29.:05:34.

at the EU level, but voters and parliaments in these various member

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states don't have any appetite for that kind of action at all.

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Getting parliamentary approval for a treaty could be hardest in

:05:43.:05:47.

Hungary, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. In Ireland

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there may have to be a referendum. But could the current outsider,

:05:51.:05:55.

Britain, come back in? British officials, it was confirmed today,

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will be invited to future talks on the deal. It would be difficult,

:06:00.:06:03.

because Nicolas Sarkozy would have to climb down, having proclaimed

:06:03.:06:07.

his great success in establishing his new body. David Cameron would

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have to accept a treaty of all 27, I'm sure he would get certain

:06:12.:06:14.

concessions, he would get safeguards on the City f he wanted

:06:14.:06:18.

them. If he renegotiated in advance, which he didn't do last week, but

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he would have to push it through parliament, he might find it

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difficult to push through parliament. So the pressure of

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electorate, particularly in certain countries, will continue to push

:06:26.:06:29.

one way, the pressure of markets another.

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This week the euro fell to its lowest rate against the dollar

:06:33.:06:38.

since January. A reminder that even when the current wrangling over the

:06:38.:06:41.

future architecture of the union is completed, the fight will still be

:06:41.:06:47.

on to save its currency. How many member states might

:06:47.:06:51.

actually be left by the time the deal is finalise. With me is the

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Czech Republic's ambassador to Britain, and from Brussels I'm

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joined by the adviser to Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the

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European council. First of all, why was it important for your Prime

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Minister to set the record straight today? We have been saying that

:07:08.:07:13.

since the beginning, I mean, the first problem is that the treaty

:07:13.:07:23.
:07:23.:07:29.

that was brought last week was like the Loch Ness monster, people had

:07:29.:07:33.

opinions about it, but nobody had seen it. We have said from the

:07:33.:07:36.

beginning we are waiting to see the details, because the devil is often

:07:36.:07:41.

maybe in the details. Like the Loch Ness monster we don't know the

:07:41.:07:44.

shape either F it involves tax harmonisation, your Prime Minister

:07:44.:07:49.

has made it clear, that is not going to fly? Yes, that is one of

:07:49.:07:55.

our red lines. And it is possible that there will not be an explicit

:07:55.:08:02.

clause on tax harmonisation, but should budget supervision, that is

:08:02.:08:06.

being proposed by the treaty, you know, states, countries could be

:08:06.:08:12.

told you know, you have to increase your corporation tax or decrease it,

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whatever, we don't think it is the right idea. Obviously there are

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concerns expressed in Hungary and Sweden and Denmark, how likely is

:08:21.:08:27.

it that a new treaty, if it is formed, that 26 will sign up to it?

:08:27.:08:33.

We think it is very important that the 27 stay together as much as

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possible. This is a serious situation, and we do want to be

:08:37.:08:42.

responsible. We do want to contribute to the stablisation of

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the situation. At the same time, we have to keep in mind that is not

:08:48.:08:52.

about rescuing the economy, but about sovereign debt. What we are

:08:52.:08:58.

missing in the treaty is article about growth, about competitiveness,

:08:58.:09:02.

about things that will get us up and growing again. But when David

:09:02.:09:05.

Cameron was talking about having to look after the national interest,

:09:05.:09:10.

beyond the interest of the 27, he wasn't wrong, was he? That really

:09:10.:09:15.

would be the Czech position as well? Well, yes. We do have a

:09:15.:09:20.

position that there are national interests involved as well. We do

:09:20.:09:26.

have a position not that different from the British position, that the

:09:26.:09:32.

Common Market of the 27 countries is the crucial part of the European

:09:32.:09:38.

Union, and that we should all try to help preserve it at all costs.

:09:38.:09:41.

We have just had information tonight that British officials will

:09:41.:09:46.

be, it says here, allowed to take part in talks about a new European

:09:47.:09:53.

treaty. Can I just confirm, is it taking part in talks, or observing.

:09:53.:09:57.

Will there be sie silent observing or taking part in talk, which will

:09:57.:10:01.

be l it be? I think they will have the right to speak at those talks

:10:02.:10:05.

and put their view forward. The agreement that is being negotiated

:10:05.:10:09.

is among the other member states of the union. Certainly all eurozone

:10:09.:10:13.

countries, and all the other ones that choose to join in. The UK has

:10:13.:10:17.

already indicated it does not wish to join in with that treaty, unless

:10:17.:10:22.

it changes its mind, therefore it will be in the sense, an observer

:10:22.:10:25.

at the talks. It will be an observer, it will be allowed it

:10:25.:10:29.

take part in the talks, is it possible British officials will

:10:29.:10:33.

have an influence on these talks, or not? Of course you can have an

:10:33.:10:36.

influence if you are there and talking, but if you are not going

:10:36.:10:40.

to be party to the agreement, obviously your influence is less

:10:40.:10:43.

than those actually negotiating an agreement among themselves. Who

:10:43.:10:48.

will have different views. I heard you talking about tax harmonisation.

:10:48.:10:51.

Member states have very different views on that, and there is a large

:10:51.:10:55.

number of countries who don't want that to be subject to majority

:10:55.:10:59.

voting, not just Britain, one can think of Estonia, Luxembourg,

:10:59.:11:04.

Cyprus, all kinds of countries. That is unlikely to be, that point

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is unlikely to change among 26 or among 27, that would still require

:11:10.:11:14.

unanimity. You have just heard the Czech ambassador liken it to the

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Loch Ness monster, what form will it actually take? What teeth will

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it have? If your people are saying they are all subject to qualified

:11:23.:11:27.

majority voting, we won't have tax harmonisation, there may be an

:11:27.:11:31.

issue over corporation tax, transaction tax, you might be left

:11:31.:11:36.

with nothing? Tax harmonisation is not the central issue of the

:11:36.:11:40.

negotiations. The central issue is about fiscal discipline, that is

:11:40.:11:45.

about avoiding excessive deficits and excessive debt levels. It is

:11:45.:11:48.

not about harmonising particular forms of tax, that is an element

:11:48.:11:52.

that some countries wish to discuss in this traik, but the central part

:11:53.:11:56.

of it -- framework, but the central part is about fiscal discipline.

:11:56.:12:01.

That is what the talks will be based on, fiscal discipline among

:12:01.:12:05.

members of the eurozone. Can I get a sense of what would be a success,

:12:05.:12:13.

is it necessary, in your view, for -- 26 to sign up to it, or are you

:12:13.:12:19.

happy for eight or nine to ratify it? The key thing is fiscal

:12:19.:12:23.

discipline that is the eurozone countries wish to impose upon

:12:23.:12:29.

themselves to help stablise the euro. The essential thing is the

:12:29.:12:33.

euro zone countries join up, and most of the others do wish to do so.

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Let's be clear, he's saying most of the others do wish to do so?

:12:41.:12:46.

others do wish to take part in negotiations. We do agree that

:12:46.:12:53.

fiscal discipline is crucial at this point. Actually many of the

:12:53.:12:58.

countries outside the eurozone have already taken steps to endorse and

:12:58.:13:02.

strengthen fiscal discipline. The Czech parliament yesterday approved

:13:02.:13:08.

a new budget which is an austerity budget, and at the same time our,

:13:08.:13:15.

that is something like 40% of the GDP compared to the 90% of GDP in

:13:15.:13:19.

the eurozone. In some ways we are ahead of the trend. But at the same

:13:19.:13:23.

time, it will be for the eurozone member countries to take the

:13:23.:13:27.

commitments and the institutions in their lepblgs -- constitutions in

:13:27.:13:31.

their legislation to keep their budgets balanced. Because the

:13:31.:13:35.

countries outside the eurozone cannot take that, may take that

:13:35.:13:39.

commitment when they join. outside the eurozone, coming back

:13:39.:13:43.

to you on that very point about the country's outside the eurozone, you

:13:43.:13:46.

seem remarkably relaxed that as long as you have the 17 on board,

:13:46.:13:52.

it doesn't really matter for the others. So why was all the who ho

:13:53.:13:58.

had a -- ho had a about Cameron from Merkel and Sarkozy in

:13:58.:14:01.

particular? It was always initially about whether the eurozone

:14:01.:14:04.

countries could take on extra fiscal disciplines, and those other

:14:04.:14:08.

countries that so wish, remember most of them want to join the euro

:14:08.:14:16.

in due course. As it was every country but one will want to be in

:14:16.:14:19.

the negotiations. They will still have things they disagree on in the

:14:19.:14:22.

negotiation, but they all want to negotiate an agreement. That is

:14:22.:14:27.

where we are now. Later in the propbl, we will be

:14:27.:14:30.

discussing with Henry Kissinger, Simon Schama and others, the

:14:30.:14:34.

realities and myths of this year's called Arab Spring, and what chance

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is there for future revolutions and western interventions. Before that,

:14:38.:14:40.

today brought a startling announcement about the London

:14:40.:14:44.

Olympics, it was always going to be a military contingent involved in

:14:44.:14:47.

security at the games, but today, unexpectedly, the Government

:14:47.:14:51.

announced the number of soldiers at the games would almost triple. In

:14:51.:14:55.

fact there will be more soldiers in East London in July, than in

:14:55.:14:59.

Afghanistan right now. I'm joined by Richard Watson, what was

:14:59.:15:03.

announced today? The detail is fascinating. The original plan was

:15:03.:15:09.

for a security force of about 10thou for the entire Olympics --

:15:09.:15:14.

10,000 for the entire Olympics. That was dramatically increased to

:15:14.:15:20.

23,700 after a detailed review. The MoD confirmed today that 13,500

:15:20.:15:23.

members of the armed force, military personnel there, will now

:15:23.:15:29.

be deployed to the Olympics, a staggering number in way. Up to

:15:29.:15:33.

7,500 of these people would be used for venue security, 5 though will

:15:33.:15:38.

support the police. There will be 1 -- 5,000 will support the police.

:15:38.:15:48.
:15:48.:15:52.

There will be a 1,000 contingency, unarmed force, for a -- an Olympic-

:15:52.:15:59.

related terrorist attack. Everyone knows London is a target. We know

:15:59.:16:04.

there will be naval ships deployed, HMS Ocean in the Thames. Typhoon

:16:05.:16:09.

jets on stand bi. We have surface- to-air missile capability. It is

:16:09.:16:12.

important to say, the terrorist threat level hasn't changed. A lot

:16:12.:16:16.

of this planning was done on the terrorist threat level of severe,

:16:16.:16:20.

it is now substantial. That is not directly behind this, but what we

:16:20.:16:24.

are going to see is Armed Forces for a long time have been part of

:16:24.:16:27.

the planning process. We will see specialists deployed, undercover,

:16:27.:16:31.

sometimes, for example, surveillance experts, sniper cover,

:16:31.:16:36.

all those kinds of people. How safe are these games going to be, how

:16:36.:16:40.

safe can the games be? It is about getting the balance right. As

:16:41.:16:44.

sources said to me today, if you bring on more Armed Forces

:16:44.:16:48.

personnel, you can hasten the through of people into the stadium,

:16:48.:16:53.

and avoid the allegation that the games is a failure because of huge

:16:53.:16:56.

queues. I was chat to go a security forced to, who said they are

:16:56.:17:00.

expecting a lot of intelligence charter during the games, from

:17:00.:17:02.

foreign overseas intelligence agencies, who will be sensitive

:17:02.:17:05.

about any allegations of plots, they will be receiving information

:17:05.:17:10.

into the UK on that. Plus charter from the UK, aspirational

:17:10.:17:13.

terrorists, the talking about attacking the games, however

:17:13.:17:18.

unlikely that may be. Lasty, it is important to remember, terrorists -

:17:18.:17:23.

- lastly, the terrorists may not choose to target the games, they

:17:23.:17:29.

are highly protected. Look at 2005 all the focus was on G8 in Scotland,

:17:29.:17:35.

and we saw the London bombings. Earlier I spoke to the minister,

:17:35.:17:38.

Philip Hammond, and asked was the increase in military was due to a

:17:38.:17:42.

security threat? No, the planning threat level remains exactly the

:17:42.:17:47.

same. As you know, because the Olympic authority has made this

:17:47.:17:52.

year. There has been a requirement to increase the number of people

:17:52.:17:57.

used in venue guarding, up to about 23 though. When we have looked at

:17:57.:17:59.

how best to recruit and deliver those numbers of people, the

:18:00.:18:05.

question has arisen whether the military could provide some support,

:18:05.:18:10.

and the army have concluded that they could deliver 7,500 people

:18:10.:18:15.

towards that 23,000 total, without impacting on any of the other

:18:15.:18:19.

obligations and tasks that the military undertakes. The additional

:18:19.:18:24.

personnel are not being deployed in a policing role, they are being

:18:24.:18:27.

deployed as venue security personnel, to help with the

:18:28.:18:33.

searching and control of people coming into the stadiums and venues,

:18:33.:18:36.

to make sure, airline-style, that nothing that shouldn't be in there,

:18:36.:18:40.

gets in. Will they have access to weapons if

:18:40.:18:46.

they need them? No they won't. They will be unarmed, working alongside

:18:46.:18:50.

unarmed security guards and unarmed volunteers. The police, of course,

:18:50.:18:53.

and if necessary, military support to the police, would be available,

:18:53.:18:57.

if any threat arose. But these people will be doing an unarmed

:18:57.:19:02.

role. So soldiers working to bosses in a

:19:02.:19:07.

private security firm? The overall control of venue security will be

:19:07.:19:11.

managed by a private security contractor, there will be groups of

:19:11.:19:14.

soldiers working alongside private security guards, and volunteers,

:19:14.:19:20.

they will, of course, be managed directly by military personnel. But

:19:20.:19:23.

ultimately, the security at the venues will not be run by the

:19:23.:19:27.

military, the military will be providing man power support. It

:19:27.:19:35.

will be the civilian contractor and ultimately the police. They will be

:19:35.:19:43.

in control. We l we be able to tell the mill stree staff? They will be

:19:43.:19:47.

wearing uniforms. No Olympic T- shirts? Possibly, but army combat

:19:47.:19:50.

trousers and boots, you will be able to spot the soldiers. Is the

:19:50.:19:56.

MoD picking up the tab for this extra staffing? The additional

:19:56.:20:00.

7,500 people supplied as part of the venue-guarding force, will be

:20:00.:20:03.

paid for from the Olympic budget. There will be no additional cost to

:20:03.:20:08.

the MoD. Will it be cheaper for the Olympic

:20:08.:20:12.

organisers? Not necessarily cheaper. But we do believe that it will be

:20:12.:20:19.

more resilient. We can deliver 7,500 troops into the equation.

:20:19.:20:23.

That makes the recruiting and training challenge for the civilian

:20:23.:20:27.

contractor that much more managable. It makes the whole arrangements

:20:27.:20:31.

much more robust. Did David Cameron make this decision? It was a

:20:31.:20:34.

decision made collectively by a committee of the cabinet, that has

:20:34.:20:37.

been working on the Olympic arrangements. Was David Cameron in

:20:37.:20:41.

the room when the decision was made? Yes, of course he was.

:20:41.:20:45.

this all about showing British spirit, now? It is a practical

:20:45.:20:49.

solution, we are absolutely determined to ensure that the 2012

:20:49.:20:53.

Olympics goes off smoothly. Is a very successful games, and that

:20:53.:20:57.

people come here confident they will be safe and secure. We believe

:20:57.:21:03.

that the military support to the policing effort, as well as the

:21:03.:21:06.

additional 7,500 military personnel, that will be guarding the venues,

:21:06.:21:09.

will reassure the public, and those military personnel will be very

:21:09.:21:14.

pleased to have the opportunity to take part in what will be a once in

:21:14.:21:22.

a lifetime exercise in London. year will be remembered as the year

:21:22.:21:26.

of the Arab Spring, when turmoil, determination and revolution and

:21:26.:21:30.

not a little bloodshed, overturned regimes in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya,

:21:30.:21:34.

in the name of democracy, and started the different journey to a

:21:34.:21:37.

different kind of Government. In a moment we will discuss the

:21:37.:21:40.

importance of what happened in 2011, and what it means for other Arab

:21:40.:21:48.

states, from Syria to Saudi Arabia in 2012. For with his assessment on

:21:48.:21:56.

a year of immense change in the Middle East is our correspondent.

:21:56.:22:01.

Today there is violence in Syria, political upheaval in Egypt, and

:22:01.:22:06.

the kind of armed truce in Libya. In Yemen the President has stepped

:22:06.:22:10.

down, and although his clan still runs the country, in Bahrain the

:22:10.:22:13.

ruler has conceded that his riot police used excessive force against

:22:14.:22:23.
:22:24.:22:25.

protestors. Did we predict all this dizzying

:22:25.:22:31.

dysfunction last year? No we -- we didn't, what is the bigger

:22:31.:22:35.

picture we can draw from it. That is still very hard to say, apart

:22:35.:22:39.

from the fact that Arab leaders who try to do business as usual, are

:22:39.:22:43.

facing an unprecedented challenge. But, they are there are some clues

:22:43.:22:51.

emerging as to the trend of these events.

:22:51.:22:57.

It began in Tunisia, a market trader denied a permit by corrupt

:22:57.:23:02.

officials, and burned himself to death.

:23:02.:23:07.

Within weeks the tumult toppled their first leader, President Ben

:23:07.:23:16.

Ali. What happened in Tunisia resonated

:23:16.:23:24.

across the Arab world for two reasons. It touched a common desire

:23:24.:23:30.

for dignity, freedom from petty officials. Also, in overthrowing a

:23:30.:23:40.
:23:40.:23:41.

long-serving, undemocratic leader, Tunisia showed it could be done.

:23:41.:23:46.

Very quickly there was a copycat effect, despotic leaders feared a

:23:46.:23:52.

contagion spreading through the region. And they reacted. The way

:23:52.:23:58.

that they were able to fight back depended on the strength of their

:23:58.:24:01.

security apparatus and the tribal structure of their country, in

:24:01.:24:09.

Libya, the key factor was the penally of Muammar Gaddafi himself.

:24:09.:24:16.

They love me, all my people love me, all. They will die to protect me,

:24:16.:24:26.

my people. And while the Egyptian army stood firm, it was powerful

:24:26.:24:30.

enough to consider its interests more important than those of Hosni

:24:30.:24:37.

Mubarak, who it dumped. TRANSLATION: The Armed Forces make

:24:37.:24:41.

a commitment to caring for the people's legitimate demands, and to

:24:41.:24:45.

seek to follow their implementation within the time frames, until the

:24:45.:24:48.

complete transfer of power, and the achievement of the democratic free

:24:48.:24:58.
:24:58.:25:04.

society, which people aspire to. Everyone is in the street, they are

:25:04.:25:08.

cheering that Mubarak has left. Thank God that he did. You can see

:25:08.:25:13.

everyone is in the treat, thank God that he left. We are very happy, we

:25:13.:25:18.

have nothing except happiness, happiness, we wish nothing else. We

:25:18.:25:24.

wish Mubarak go away, and we will order ourselves.

:25:24.:25:28.

In Libya, the army was weak, and soon fractured, as did the country.

:25:28.:25:36.

Along an historic fault line. NATO was involved, bombing on

:25:36.:25:41.

behalf of the easterners, those who had fermented revolution in

:25:41.:25:46.

Benghazi. It was the sole military intervention of its kind, because

:25:46.:25:49.

Gaddafi was widely loathed and a diplomatic consensus against him

:25:49.:25:53.

could easily be achieved. Security Council has authorised the

:25:53.:25:59.

use of force. Including enforcement of a no-fly zone, to protect

:25:59.:26:06.

civilians and civilian areas, targeted by Colonel Gaddafi, his

:26:06.:26:12.

intelligence and security forces and his mercenaries.

:26:12.:26:17.

In Bahrain, where the Amir called on Saudis to help crush protests,

:26:17.:26:21.

there was strong regional support, and a western reluctance to

:26:21.:26:26.

challenge the power structure. And while the slogans were the same

:26:27.:26:34.

across the region, the outcomes by the end of 2011 were starting to

:26:34.:26:38.

look subtley different. One key reason for that was the variation

:26:38.:26:44.

in local power structures. Elections in Tunisia and Egypt have

:26:44.:26:47.

shown that dignity and freedom are defined for many Arabs in an

:26:47.:26:52.

Islamic way. The longing for a free vote does

:26:52.:26:56.

not necessarily mean then the adoption of western concepts of

:26:56.:27:01.

fairness or human rights. That's left Egypt's Coptic

:27:01.:27:08.

Christian minority, for example, gloomy about its future.

:27:08.:27:13.

Libya too declaring itself free after months of NATO air strikes,

:27:13.:27:18.

emphasising the Islamist nature of the new Government. TRANSLATION:

:27:18.:27:23.

Today we are one national flesh, we have become a united brothers as we

:27:23.:27:29.

have not been in the past and we love each other.

:27:29.:27:34.

And the end met by Gaddafi and one of his sons suggested graphically

:27:34.:27:41.

that this is not a country that will defer to western ideals of

:27:41.:27:45.

justice. There is now an uneasy stand-off between militia of

:27:45.:27:49.

different regions and different tribes.

:27:49.:27:54.

In Syria too, violence increasingly is defined by the politics of

:27:54.:28:00.

identity. The majority Sunnis versus the minority Alawites who

:28:01.:28:07.

came to power. Places like Homs, with a Sunni identity, have become

:28:07.:28:12.

centres of oppression. In Bahrain, it is a Shia majority that

:28:12.:28:16.

considers itself oppressed by Sunni overLords, that seeks to use

:28:16.:28:21.

democracy to equalise things. But the result is likely to owe more to

:28:21.:28:25.

Arab culture and history, than it is to western notions of freedom

:28:25.:28:35.
:28:35.:28:37.

and equality. The differences of etnisry, tribal

:28:37.:28:43.

or security structures make it hard to look ahead. Many Arab leaders

:28:44.:28:48.

haven't faced serious difficulties any way, one thing is clear as the

:28:48.:28:53.

year ends, but optimists who predicted a happy transition to

:28:53.:28:58.

western democracies, dispensing power with tran paorncy, with

:28:58.:29:02.

protected minority rights, were deluding themselves. It maybe only

:29:02.:29:06.

a bumpry road of a few months unrest in Tunisia, for example, but

:29:06.:29:11.

in other place, the overthrow of the old order could herald years of

:29:11.:29:14.

struggle by politics and arms, and perhaps even the break-up of some

:29:14.:29:19.

countries. I'm joined now from New York by the

:29:19.:29:24.

former UK a second, Henry Kissinger, from Cairo by the activist, Gigi

:29:24.:29:31.

Ibrahim, a familiar face on Newsnight during the Arab spring,

:29:31.:29:38.

and with me historian Simon Schama, Jeremy Greenstock and the Yemeny

:29:38.:29:41.

journalist, Tawakul Karman, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize this year.

:29:41.:29:44.

Particularly first with you Gigi, you guided us through what was

:29:45.:29:48.

going on in Egypt in the beginning, looking back to the beginning when

:29:48.:29:51.

the revolution was under way, how much did you really expect it to

:29:51.:29:54.

succeed. There must have been moments when you thought you were

:29:54.:29:59.

really up against it? I knew from day one that it is going to be a

:29:59.:30:04.

long fight. I mean, I remember even saying this on the day Mubarak

:30:04.:30:11.

stepped down, that this is a sweet victory and a moment that we will

:30:11.:30:14.

hold close in our hearts together, but the real hard work begins now,

:30:14.:30:21.

and it won't be easy or short. Any revolution takes years to settle,

:30:21.:30:27.

whether with a win or defeat. I think we are heading to a great

:30:27.:30:35.

start so far. The streets haven't been calm, and it has been

:30:35.:30:38.

increasingly intense and mobilisation and all of the

:30:38.:30:44.

governance is very much increasing. The discontent against the military

:30:44.:30:50.

rule has been increasing in the past months. I expect more of that.

:30:50.:30:54.

From where you are looking at it all, because you were watching from

:30:54.:30:58.

Yemen z it give you hope. When you were watching what was happening in

:30:58.:31:01.

Tunisia and Egypt, what were people in Yemen saying? Of course, we are

:31:02.:31:06.

so happy because the people in Egypt, they are protecting their

:31:06.:31:11.

revolution. The youth they are struggling, they are continuing

:31:11.:31:15.

their demonstrations. They want also the army to step down, because

:31:15.:31:20.

they don't want anyone to hijack their revolution. We are so

:31:20.:31:27.

optimistic and we know that the people who are deciding to go to

:31:27.:31:31.

freedom, they will not go back. That is what has happened with the

:31:31.:31:37.

tunis ian and the Egyptian. You won the Nobel Peace Prize for the work

:31:37.:31:40.

you did with women, in organising different peace groups. How

:31:40.:31:43.

important is it in the Arab Spring that the voice of women is heard

:31:43.:31:48.

and continues to be heard, that is a key thing isn't it? It is very

:31:48.:31:56.

important, it is very effective. In our countries, especially in Yemen,

:31:56.:32:00.

it is conservative, there is no women in the streets before the

:32:01.:32:08.

revolution, and when we just raise our voice, and they say, they see

:32:08.:32:13.

us in strange way, they laugh at us, but they hear us. They say, what

:32:13.:32:17.

are they doing, so we have to follow them, we have to listen to

:32:17.:32:20.

them, and they did. A key part of the empowerment of

:32:21.:32:25.

all the Arab Spring has been the role and the voice of women

:32:26.:32:29.

particularly. Did you ever think, at the beginning of the year, it

:32:29.:32:34.

would be so expensive? No, nobody did. It is a miracle, in this way,

:32:34.:32:39.

whether or not social media and television were the great

:32:39.:32:43.

liberators in the way print journalism was the great liberator

:32:43.:32:49.

in the 19th sent treatment we were still really unprepared for the

:32:49.:32:52.

possibility of disintegrating ferocious institutions and military

:32:52.:32:57.

power. I just want to say to Gigi and Tawakul Karman, it seems to me

:32:57.:33:02.

you are almost too high about your own cause. The success or defeat of

:33:02.:33:08.

the revolutions around the Muslim world, will be determined by women.

:33:08.:33:12.

You know, you have been incredibly brave so far. What I mean is, Gigi

:33:12.:33:16.

is wondering what I'm saying. I'm thinking about the difference

:33:16.:33:21.

between different Islamist groups, between Salafiists, and the Freedom

:33:22.:33:24.

and Justice Party, they have radically different views about

:33:24.:33:30.

women's place in the future of politics. So the hinge will be you.

:33:30.:33:34.

As Gigi says, there is a lot of dust still to settle until we know

:33:34.:33:38.

the outcomes and make-ups of these Governments. Henry Kissinger, I

:33:38.:33:43.

wanted to put this to you, was it a niave view or a wrong-headed view

:33:43.:33:47.

that there would be a western-style democracy. What is emerging is a

:33:47.:33:54.

different form of Government, in these countries, isn't it? In the

:33:54.:34:03.

first phase of revolution it is inevitable that you cannot make a

:34:03.:34:07.

France action to a western-style Government. It is the essence of

:34:07.:34:14.

revolution that it brings together a collection of grievances, and

:34:14.:34:22.

resentments. After that it has accomplished its destructive phase,

:34:22.:34:27.

destruction of the existing institutions, and any revolution

:34:27.:34:29.

can give itself then a positive direction. That is what is now

:34:29.:34:37.

going on in each of these countries. It could not, at this stage, lead

:34:37.:34:47.
:34:47.:34:48.

to an immediate western democracy. So the question is, whether it is

:34:48.:34:51.

possible it will become democratic, or whether it is a form of

:34:51.:34:56.

democracy in which there is either only one election for one party

:34:56.:35:00.

that is so all encompassing that no de facto opposition is possible.

:35:00.:35:08.

That seems to me to be the challenge that emerges as the

:35:08.:35:11.

revolutions mature. Jeremy Greenstock, what was the west's

:35:11.:35:18.

role, if any, in fermenting change, was it a prescriptive role, it

:35:18.:35:22.

couldn't be because Henry Kissinger was saying we don't know what style

:35:22.:35:28.

of Governments emerge? This wasn't from the west, it was internal.

:35:28.:35:31.

This was necessary because people realised they didn't have to put up

:35:31.:35:34.

with rotten Government. What you are seeing in the Middle East is

:35:34.:35:39.

not a regional phenomenon, but a global phenomenon. Something is

:35:39.:35:43.

happening everywhere, people don't have to have their expectations

:35:43.:35:45.

crushed forever. It is bubbling up everywhere, but the Middle East was

:35:45.:35:49.

held back the most. Now just to stick with that for a moment. Are

:35:49.:35:54.

you really saying that there wasn't any western influence, the rhetoric

:35:54.:35:58.

coming out from America about the exporting of democracy. Indeed from

:35:58.:36:02.

the Government here, that played no part at all in encouragement?

:36:03.:36:06.

of course were, it was western technology that got communications

:36:06.:36:09.

going. It was western ideals of democracy have got through to other

:36:09.:36:14.

parts of the world. But the inspiration came internally. And

:36:14.:36:19.

there is another factor, which is that all our institutions are

:36:19.:36:22.

gradually fading in effectiveness, Governmental and international, and

:36:22.:36:26.

the people want to take over with something more effective. They have

:36:26.:36:31.

got a voice now it is very important. Henry Kissinger, coming

:36:31.:36:36.

back to something that Mark Urban raised in the film, I want to ask

:36:36.:36:39.

Gigi about this as well. The danger in all of this, particularly for a

:36:39.:36:42.

country like Egypt, is other minorities are crushed in the

:36:42.:36:46.

change, in the recalibration. One of the issues in Egypt is for the

:36:46.:36:50.

Coptic Christians who find themselves, they say, persecuted.

:36:50.:37:00.

There is nothing that can be done to stop that kind of persecution?

:37:00.:37:07.

Henry Kissinger first, sorry? think there are two pass aspects,

:37:07.:37:11.

the first -- aspects, what is the position of the west and our

:37:11.:37:16.

convictions on the subject. Our conviction would be that we favour

:37:16.:37:21.

a pluralistic democracy in which minorities' rights are respected,

:37:21.:37:27.

and freedom of religion is maintained. Our capacity to bring

:37:27.:37:37.

this about is shrinking, by direct action. So it depends on the

:37:37.:37:42.

relationship that we live out between the west and the emerging

:37:42.:37:50.

countries. The danger that I see is that the democratic process is in

:37:50.:37:54.

slogans, and will be used to destroy the rotten regimes. That is

:37:54.:38:01.

a great achievement. But then a sort of one-party state

:38:01.:38:09.

developing, in an Islamist basis, and I know this is often now the

:38:09.:38:14.

Islamists are congratulated when they ask other parties to join a

:38:14.:38:17.

coalition Government. But an all encompassing coalition Government

:38:17.:38:22.

means there is no opposition, no formal opposition. That is a

:38:22.:38:27.

challenge. Gigi, let me put that to you? The west can do directly it is

:38:27.:38:31.

limited. Thank you, let me put that to Gigi. First, on the question of

:38:31.:38:35.

how do you make sure that the Government embraces all minorities,

:38:35.:38:39.

and there isn't persecution, and what would be an effective

:38:39.:38:43.

opposition? The persecution is happening from counter revolution.

:38:43.:38:47.

The persecution is happening from counter revolution, that is being

:38:47.:38:53.

led by the military, the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces itself.

:38:53.:39:02.

Which is again, backed by $1.3 billion from the US and the western

:39:02.:39:06.

Governments. You are talking about the role of the west in relation to

:39:06.:39:09.

these revolutions, it has no positive impact on it whatsoever.

:39:09.:39:14.

If anything, it is backing up any revolution progress, because it is

:39:14.:39:20.

supporting the exact entity which is the Supreme Council, that are

:39:20.:39:25.

running people over in protests, and especially Christians. What

:39:25.:39:31.

happened with the massacre with the creations. Let me put it again. As

:39:31.:39:36.

Simon Schama was saying, which form of Islamism eventually appears in

:39:36.:39:38.

this country, and as Henry Kissinger said, it could take a

:39:38.:39:43.

very long time. The revolutionaries are never the ones that inherit the

:39:43.:39:46.

mantle? The revolution takes a long time. I don't think the whole

:39:46.:39:51.

countries, the greatest country in the world, that they take their

:39:51.:39:57.

freedom in one year. They make their revolution, and they gained

:39:57.:40:04.

their democracy. I want to say, don't be afraid of people. From

:40:04.:40:09.

left or right. You have to encourage everybody to be part of

:40:09.:40:16.

the political affairs, after the revolution. Don't say that

:40:16.:40:20.

Islamists people they don't have to enter to the political, to the

:40:20.:40:24.

democracy, that means that you encourage some of the people to be

:40:24.:40:30.

terrorists, to to be extremists. Also you have to separate between

:40:30.:40:35.

Islamist people, and between Al- Qaeda, Al-Qaeda. Sorry I want to

:40:35.:40:41.

finish this thing. Al-Qaeda, this Al-Qaeda, you know, peaceful

:40:41.:40:44.

revolutions around the Arab Spring, they are against it, and we shut

:40:44.:40:53.

down the voices of them. Did you hear even one attack since January

:40:53.:40:58.

until now in Tunisia or Egypt or even in Yemen? Any attack from Al-

:40:58.:41:06.

Qaeda. Please don't think that we are afraid of Islamists, even from

:41:06.:41:11.

Salafiists, we are attacked by these people. What is the best

:41:11.:41:14.

outcome from the pluralist Government? The best outcome is

:41:14.:41:18.

revolutions. It takes time. It is one that makes it a very high

:41:18.:41:22.

priority for protection of disagreements. The history of

:41:22.:41:29.

revolutions is Dr Kissinger implying, is tragic. More often

:41:29.:41:34.

than not revolutions that begin with a tremendous sense of unity,

:41:34.:41:39.

end at dictatorship. Only the revolutions in Europe which were as

:41:39.:41:43.

a result of the collapse of Soviet power, and the American revolution

:41:43.:41:50.

before that, a long time ago, took incredible pains to protect the

:41:50.:41:54.

rights of opposition and minority groups. Without that, it is, you

:41:54.:42:00.

know, a tragic destiny awaits, which none of us hope. I want to

:42:00.:42:04.

talk both to Dr Kissinger and Jeremy Greenstock about 2012. There

:42:04.:42:10.

was, of course, this great co- alllessing about something the

:42:10.:42:13.

international community could come together over Libya. Gaddafi was

:42:14.:42:18.

this hated figure. Let's talk about Syria and the on going trouble in

:42:18.:42:21.

Syria, not clearly as clear cut, and there is no international

:42:21.:42:24.

agreement about how to deal with Syria. What is your best guess

:42:24.:42:28.

about what will happen in Syria in the months to come? That the

:42:28.:42:32.

opposition won't have the catalytic force to get rid of the regime in

:42:32.:42:35.

dam mass cushion because they are learning how to repress, from what

:42:35.:42:41.

they have seen over the last year or so. Impress with inpunity?

:42:41.:42:45.

are learning from Iran, they know if they double up oppression it is

:42:45.:42:50.

hard to get rid of the regime. If there isn't a catalytic regime to

:42:50.:42:53.

take that out. You are likely to go into civil war. Do you think it

:42:53.:43:00.

will end up as civil war in Syria? Yes, I think it will end up with

:43:00.:43:07.

the collapse of the Assad regime. Because the pressures will become

:43:07.:43:15.

too great. The situation either like Libya, but it could pass

:43:15.:43:20.

through several countries. One country we haven't talked about

:43:20.:43:25.

in a sense, at the beginning of all of this latest movement, is Iran. A

:43:25.:43:29.

failed revolution, despite the best efforts of social media and

:43:29.:43:33.

interventions and so forth. Will it be the economy that will do for

:43:33.:43:40.

Ahmadinejad in Iran do you think? don't know, can you go on actually

:43:40.:43:45.

as the most bitter years of the Chinese revolution proved, in a

:43:45.:43:49.

state of near catastrophic economic collapse, and the dictatorship will

:43:49.:43:53.

still not be removed. I did want to say that as the economic situation

:43:53.:43:58.

worsens, as it is likely to, the shake-down we have not talked about,

:43:58.:44:03.

between rural and urban, between provinces and the capital cities,

:44:03.:44:12.

seems to me likely to play a part. The revolutions are revolutions of

:44:12.:44:17.

urban centres sometimes of capital cities. Assad is lucky that most of

:44:17.:44:23.

the fury is concentrated in Homs, where he has a subjective Damascus.

:44:23.:44:29.

These things are complicated scenarios, which is difficult to

:44:29.:44:33.

see when you simply have the story of people fighting for liberty and

:44:33.:44:37.

counter revolution. They will tell next year. Briefly on Yemen, this

:44:37.:44:42.

coming year, what do you think, Safa is still there, but not in

:44:42.:44:45.

power at the moment. What is the best estimate of what might happen

:44:45.:44:51.

in Yemen this year? People will succeed, and we now, we are calling

:44:51.:44:58.

the international community to take their duty, to make their rules, to

:44:58.:45:06.

freeze assets and also to take him to the ICC. This is the demands of

:45:06.:45:13.

all people around the world. Around the Arab Spring. When they struggle

:45:13.:45:17.

for their freedom, it is accountability. It is not affair

:45:17.:45:22.

that the regime to be out of the accountability. I think Welwyn. But

:45:22.:45:27.

we want to win with international community, we don't want to win

:45:27.:45:31.

alone, people will succeed. Thank you all very much indeed. Tomorrow

:45:31.:45:41.
:45:41.:45:59.

you all very much indeed. Tomorrow That's all from Newsnight. Emily is

:45:59.:46:03.

here tomorrow for a review of the political dramas of 201, from all

:46:04.:46:13.
:46:14.:46:33.

of us here, a very -- 2011, from all of us here, a very good night.

:46:33.:46:38.

Hello, some of us will wake up to our first snowfall of the winter.

:46:38.:46:42.

We have an amber warning in force, with parts of Wales, central and

:46:42.:46:47.

southern England as well. Much of it is rain. As we go through the

:46:47.:46:53.

night it will turn to snow across Wales and the Midlands. Don't be

:46:53.:46:57.

surprised if you wake up to snow, even in the London area, the rain

:46:57.:47:01.

will have a tendency to turn to snow for a time in the morning.

:47:01.:47:05.

Hopefully in London south it won't cause problems, around the

:47:05.:47:08.

outskirts it might do. Across the south west of England, wintry

:47:08.:47:13.

showers, a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, in the moors a chilly

:47:13.:47:19.

breeze, the case for Wales and more meaningful snow showers evolving.

:47:19.:47:24.

An icey and slippery start in Northern Ireland. Wintry showers

:47:24.:47:27.

around. Similar story for Scotland as well. Slippery out there. It

:47:27.:47:31.

will be another cold day nationwide. As we go through the morning,

:47:31.:47:35.

notice now the wintry weather, the sleet and snow progresses down

:47:35.:47:38.

towards the south-east. Before eventually the worst of it does

:47:38.:47:42.

tend to fade away. For the rest of the country, a mixture of sunshine

:47:42.:47:46.

and wintry showers, as I mentioned, with parts of Wales having

:47:46.:47:49.

significant snowfall, I think, through the afternoon. It stays

:47:49.:47:54.

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