14/02/2012 Newsnight


14/02/2012

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Gavin Esler.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 14/02/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

The average punter in the UK thinks unless you're making some

:02:31.:02:35.

nanotechnology Stealth bomber you shouldn't be making it in the UK.

:02:35.:02:40.

Whilst there is potential with a seriously high end in engineering

:02:41.:02:43.

and manufacturing, don't underestimate what's possible with

:02:43.:02:47.

something as simple as a bike that we make and there really is

:02:47.:02:52.

potential for many businesses to be exporting more of their products.

:02:52.:02:58.

In many ways this bicycle company is a poster boy for the Government

:02:58.:03:02.

to rebalance the economy towards manufacturing and exporting. The

:03:02.:03:06.

problem is, though, that that transition is proving quite painful

:03:06.:03:10.

for some. That's especially true for many households that are

:03:10.:03:13.

spending a lot more for day-to-day items but whose incomes have been

:03:13.:03:17.

flat lining. That's a pay cut in real terms and the worst fall in

:03:17.:03:20.

living standards in decades, so today's inflation statistics will

:03:20.:03:26.

be welcomed by many of them. They show that prices are still rising,

:03:26.:03:32.

but now at 3.6% - that's still almost twice the 2% target but

:03:33.:03:37.

considerably smaller than last year which peaked in October at 5.2%.

:03:37.:03:42.

There are clubs where people try to keet their budgeting down to �50 a

:03:42.:03:46.

week... But there was some relief in Watford where the Prime Minister

:03:46.:03:55.

was visiting Mum's Net's archrivals, Net Mums. Inflation is coming down.

:03:55.:04:01.

That's good news because inflation is the most important issue to

:04:01.:04:08.

families. Moody's placing England in negative

:04:08.:04:12.

outlook - Moody's said it was a downgrading of the UK economy and

:04:12.:04:16.

its ruling coalition. Moody's achieved a terrific double today of

:04:16.:04:19.

apparently pleasing both the Government and the opposition,

:04:19.:04:23.

which I doubt was what they intended in either case. I'm amazed

:04:23.:04:30.

that the politicians take this so seriously, and have as a policy

:04:30.:04:32.

objective maintaining particular rating, which is something they

:04:32.:04:38.

cannot possibly control. The rating agencies at the moment are somewhat

:04:38.:04:43.

following the market I think rather little market reaction. You've got

:04:43.:04:46.

rating agencies taking different views on different countries as

:04:46.:04:53.

well, so I really think that this should be downgraded in importance.

:04:53.:04:56.

Nonetheless, there is considerable evidence that Britain may have

:04:56.:05:01.

dodged an economic bullet. The services sector, which accounts for

:05:01.:05:04.

almost three-quarters of the entire economy is expanding quite well.

:05:04.:05:09.

Exports are also up. Only yesterday the CBI painted a much more benign

:05:09.:05:17.

picture than it had only three I think we're at a furning point. I

:05:17.:05:21.

think the economy is it a bit stagnant at the moment. That's what

:05:21.:05:25.

the recent quarterly growth figures show, but when you've been

:05:25.:05:29.

declining you need a period of stability before you can start

:05:29.:05:33.

rising again. So the fact that many of the surveys are looking more

:05:33.:05:37.

positive, the fact that the housing market has stopped declining seems

:05:37.:05:41.

to be also at this kind of turn around, indicates to me that

:05:42.:05:46.

probably the next few quarters will look better than the last few.

:05:46.:05:50.

That assumes that the eurozone crisis abates. Even tonight, that

:05:50.:05:58.

was not assured as eurozone finance ministers still said they needed

:05:58.:06:06.

more eassurance from Greece. Back here, we await the quarterly

:06:06.:06:09.

pronouncements of the Bank of England in topbl's inflation report.

:06:09.:06:15.

That could signal that Britain is a few centimetres to being on the

:06:15.:06:23.

right economic track. Even if that means a decade of wobblably Japan-

:06:23.:06:30.

like rough. With me are the Treasury minister, David Gauke and

:06:30.:06:35.

the Shadow Chief Secretary, Chris Leslie Once the strip out the VAT

:06:35.:06:40.

question, it is true that real incomes are still shrinking?

:06:40.:06:43.

fact is we are going through a difficult period. There's no doubt

:06:43.:06:47.

about it and the Government are doing what they can to help. That

:06:47.:06:55.

why we prevented rises in fuel duty, which would have happened next

:06:55.:07:01.

month. And some freezes. But people are still worse off. It has to be

:07:01.:07:06.

said that the fall from 5.2% to 6% is moving in the right direction.

:07:06.:07:10.

The Bank of England is saying that inflation will be down at the 2%

:07:10.:07:16.

target by the end of the year, so that is an improvement, but we

:07:16.:07:21.

recognise it is better. If this is good news, I would hate to think

:07:21.:07:25.

what bad news was. The spin we're getting is that prices are falling

:07:25.:07:32.

and people are better off. And in terms of council tax and fuel,

:07:32.:07:38.

those costs are still extremely high. 3.6%, the cost of living

:07:38.:07:43.

increase is nearly twice what the Chancellor himself is setting. And

:07:43.:07:46.

certainly twice what wage increases are. So real families and

:07:46.:07:50.

households up and down the country are finding it very difficult to

:07:50.:07:54.

make ends meet. We accept, and indeed one of the difficulties the

:07:54.:07:59.

economy has faced over the last 12 months has been high commodity

:07:59.:08:02.

prices. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility highlighted

:08:02.:08:07.

that one of the reasons why growth last year was disappointing was

:08:07.:08:11.

because of high commodity prices. We accept that, it is difficult.

:08:11.:08:17.

But within the constraints we have, we have taken out fuel duty and

:08:17.:08:21.

council tax. Moody's now is interesting, we heard it dismissed

:08:21.:08:26.

there. Some people say you can forget about it. The trouble is the

:08:26.:08:35.

Chancellor has gone on and on about this triple rating. How strong he

:08:35.:08:39.

is because he's managed to secure this, and now this must be a

:08:39.:08:45.

serious defeat, mifpbt it? No, if you look at what Moody's have said,

:08:45.:08:50.

they've praised what the Government is doing, but their concern is

:08:50.:08:59.

there going to be the political will to follow through, and will

:08:59.:09:06.

there be a fiscal grading. And in those circumstances, will it

:09:06.:09:15.

continue? But the this has to be a set back? The fact is the analysis

:09:15.:09:20.

of the credit rating agencies, as would appear to be the markets

:09:20.:09:24.

generally is we have to have a credible plan to get the deficit

:09:24.:09:30.

down and the likes of the IMF are saying we have a credible plan to

:09:30.:09:34.

get the deficit down and in those circumstances, we have low interest

:09:34.:09:38.

rates which is a huge help to businesses and households.

:09:39.:09:46.

there is no comfort for you, is there? I don't think anybody can

:09:46.:09:49.

take comfort in the fact that they're saying that the prospects

:09:49.:09:53.

for growth are weak and weakening. When you think we've been flat

:09:54.:10:02.

lining for a year, that is pretty scary. But they're talking about

:10:02.:10:07.

any further fiscal deterioration. If the Government were controlling

:10:07.:10:12.

borrowing, you could give them credit, but unfortunately it's more

:10:12.:10:16.

than last year. And one of the tests that the Chancellor set for

:10:16.:10:20.

himself on growth, well we know a year ago, they had a big plan for

:10:20.:10:25.

growth in their budget. That hasn't been a success, private sector jobs

:10:25.:10:31.

were supposed to fill the vacancy, we got the unemployment figures, a

:10:31.:10:39.

17-year high. And when you start to look at the relyons on the credit

:10:39.:10:43.

ratings, and even the agencies are abandoning the Government, so the

:10:43.:10:49.

Chancellor is on negative outlook here. By your own standards?

:10:49.:10:56.

big question the country faces is how do we deal with the deficit.

:10:56.:11:02.

You can take our approach that you have to get it down and you have to

:11:02.:11:12.

have credit rating. Or you take the approach that Chris's party has

:11:12.:11:15.

which is keep on borrowing more, it's not a problem and we'll deal

:11:16.:11:23.

with it in the future and what Moody's have highlighted is that is

:11:23.:11:30.

a very, very dangerous thing. growth is crucial to reducing the

:11:30.:11:36.

debt. But you won't do that by borrowing more. If you cut the

:11:36.:11:42.

Future Jobs Fund and refuse to put a bonus tax on the bankers to get

:11:42.:11:49.

the 100,000 youth jobs created, no wopbtd we've got no consumer

:11:50.:11:56.

confidence and growth is slipping' way. How much of this is really in

:11:56.:12:01.

your hands? The European finance ministers meeting is not going to

:12:01.:12:05.

take place tomorrow, for various reasons, something to do with

:12:05.:12:09.

paperwork in Greece. But you're not fully in control of your own

:12:09.:12:13.

destiny, are you? There are international factors that play

:12:13.:12:18.

into the economy and that is why growth has been lower than

:12:18.:12:24.

predicted. It's nothing to do with deficit reduction, it's to do with

:12:24.:12:28.

commodity prices, it's twood the euro prices. But it must be

:12:28.:12:31.

disappointing that the finance ministers can't get it tomorrow to

:12:31.:12:35.

meet? It is, because it is necessary for the euro countries to

:12:35.:12:39.

address it. That's where the responsibility lies. It is

:12:39.:12:43.

disappointing. But what can we do? What can we control? We can control

:12:44.:12:49.

the fact that we have a credible fiscal plan and we set out plans

:12:49.:12:54.

that are praised by the credit agencies. It's not working. That we

:12:54.:13:00.

ensure we keep interest rates low. If we give that up, as Chris argues

:13:00.:13:05.

then I'm afraid we will face a very difficult future. Thank you very

:13:05.:13:09.

much. We've ask three economists to join us and give us their

:13:09.:13:12.

assessment and bring with them their favourite statistic at the

:13:12.:13:22.

moment on the British economy. They are Julie Meyer, founder and CEO

:13:22.:13:32.
:13:32.:13:36.

are a nadyee Capital; Stephanie Blankenberg, lecturer at SOAS and

:13:36.:13:40.

Megan Green from Roubini Global Economics. Now, what have you

:13:40.:13:46.

brought with you? This is one of the few indicators that have

:13:46.:13:52.

started looking up in December and January and that's the purchasing

:13:52.:13:58.

managers' index. It made me more positive about the UK economy and

:13:58.:14:03.

made me think we may actually avoid a technical recession. But many

:14:03.:14:08.

people won't have heard of it, why is it important? You'll notice

:14:08.:14:16.

there is a line as 50 and anything above 50 shows an expansion in

:14:16.:14:22.

industry. In 2009, for example, we had a massive contraction. And

:14:22.:14:30.

we've just got above the 50 line. So that's an improvement. Is this a

:14:30.:14:36.

reason to become bullish on the UK market, absolutely not, but it may

:14:36.:14:42.

mean the UK will start to avoid a recession. Stephanie, you've been

:14:42.:14:47.

saying the Chancellor should have a plan B. What have you picked for

:14:47.:14:54.

us? I've picked consumer confidence. Which should appear. That's clear.

:14:54.:15:01.

It's going down. I think it is rather clear, unfortunately. So I'm

:15:01.:15:05.

more interested in the cause rather than the effect. In the end,

:15:05.:15:13.

production will go up or down, depending on what people can sell.

:15:13.:15:17.

What does consumer confidence measure? Does it measure the way we

:15:17.:15:25.

think things are going to go? measures people's ordinary economic

:15:25.:15:30.

factors, it measures unemployment and loss of income and overall

:15:30.:15:36.

perceptions of where the economy is going. Julie, you're an

:15:36.:15:46.
:15:46.:15:47.

entrepreneur, what have you picked for us? Nesta have done some

:15:47.:15:54.

research on 6% of all UK firms. So we're trying to find 20% growth or

:15:54.:15:59.

more. 6% create more than 50% of all net new jobs. So we're

:15:59.:16:02.

concerned about net new jobs and creating the industries of the

:16:02.:16:10.

future so we need to pay attention to the vital 6% of the high-growth

:16:10.:16:20.
:16:20.:16:27.

countries. For instance, yet, Monti -- Monitorise gave their figures

:16:27.:16:32.

and they're growing. We need thousands of companies. But is that

:16:32.:16:36.

underpinned by the fact that banks are prepared to lend or not lend.

:16:36.:16:46.
:16:46.:16:47.

That's where it all comes from? is much more important than lending

:16:47.:16:55.

because Monitise got where it is because of exceptional

:16:55.:17:00.

entrepreneurs. How can we get more? Small companies subsidise big

:17:00.:17:07.

companies. Big companies can get out of paying tax and restructure.

:17:07.:17:11.

Small companies are stuck here. If we really believe that the 50%

:17:12.:17:16.

drive the 6% net new jobs, these guys should be paying extremely low

:17:16.:17:22.

taxes. One of the things that most politicians agree with is where is

:17:22.:17:29.

the growth going to come from? How do you get there? The UK is trying

:17:29.:17:34.

to stage its recovery from shifting demand to export and that's where

:17:34.:17:40.

the UK is extremely exposed because 40% of exports are going to the

:17:40.:17:46.

eurozone and that's embroiled in a crisis. So that's a risk for the UK

:17:46.:17:52.

economy. Where do you see growth coming from? I would see it coming

:17:52.:17:56.

through a long-term industrial policy for this economy. The UK for

:17:56.:18:02.

many decades is vulnerable on the side of its external trade and

:18:02.:18:06.

exports and, certainly, as Megan is saying, right now in terms of what

:18:06.:18:14.

is happening in the eurozone. The only long-term view out is a

:18:14.:18:19.

substantial industrial policy that will help precisely in my view the

:18:19.:18:27.

small and mem-sized enterprises, but go beyond it to some extent.

:18:27.:18:32.

The world is not top down any more, it's bottom up. The good news is

:18:32.:18:40.

that the businesses are being set up and are taking off like wildfire.

:18:40.:18:45.

You can dictate tax policy, that's one thing we can control. And we

:18:45.:18:51.

should, if we believe the 6%, we should be making sure that these

:18:51.:18:57.

companies exist in a frinctionless surface. But who is right about

:18:57.:19:02.

cutting too far and too fast, where do you come down on that? It's a

:19:03.:19:10.

fine line to walk. I always thought that the UK's package should mean

:19:10.:19:15.

it bit much later so you have a chance for an economic recovery

:19:15.:19:22.

before they bite. But, as I said, I think we'll avoid a recession, so I

:19:22.:19:29.

don't think it's been catastrophic. So on balance, too far, too fast?

:19:29.:19:35.

That's right. What do you think? think it was wrong from the start.

:19:35.:19:40.

There clearly was a recession because of systemic failure of the

:19:40.:19:48.

private financial sector. So you're saying austerity leads to austerity.

:19:48.:19:57.

It leads to be poverty of most people. I think there is a mis

:19:57.:20:02.

conception that jobs created in the private sector and the public

:20:02.:20:11.

sector are equal. You can only afford 4% of GDP. But this is a

:20:11.:20:16.

luxury we can't afford. So I may want to go shopping at Harrods but

:20:16.:20:22.

I can't afford it, it's not autsyert, it's called living within

:20:22.:20:29.

your means -- it's not austerity it's called living within your

:20:29.:20:39.
:20:39.:20:39.

means. And what about living with the euro? It's not good for the UK.

:20:39.:20:47.

I don't think it will enraffle now, it think it start next year. Which

:20:47.:20:54.

could give Britain a window to work on. The longer we can buy time on

:20:54.:21:00.

the euro, the better it is for the UK. But there was good news from

:21:00.:21:04.

the United States, January employment figures, things are

:21:04.:21:12.

looking up? Correct, preSicily because they have not adopted

:21:12.:21:19.

austerity policies. I think the Government is a necessity when

:21:19.:21:24.

you're in trouble, because the private sector failed. Where did

:21:24.:21:32.

the housing crisis come from? This came from Clinton in the mid-1990s,

:21:32.:21:36.

Government policy changing and saying every American should own a

:21:36.:21:40.

home. It was Government intervention in the mortgage

:21:40.:21:46.

industry that drove that boubl. not going into that, but this is

:21:46.:21:50.

entirely incorrect. We're continuing with our reports one

:21:50.:21:57.

year after the Arab Spring, tonight with Bahrain. It has not gone away.

:21:57.:22:03.

Protesters, largely from the Shia population have continued to show

:22:03.:22:10.

defiance and anger against the Sunni elite. In an attempt to calm

:22:10.:22:16.

the protests, a former member of Scotland Yard, John Yeates has been

:22:16.:22:26.
:22:26.:22:26.

called in. Mainly clashes in the tiny kingome

:22:26.:22:30.

of Bahrain. Every night people go out on the streets calling for

:22:30.:22:39.

freedom and for the down fall of the dictators in Bahrain.

:22:39.:22:45.

majority Shia are calling for change in a Sunni rule. Growing

:22:45.:22:49.

sectarian tensions here have the potential to plunge the country and

:22:49.:22:54.

the region into unprecedented violence. Driving through the

:22:54.:22:59.

wealthy heart of Manama, the capital, there are few signs of

:22:59.:23:03.

unrest. It is easy to miss the deep divisions in the society. But in

:23:03.:23:08.

the year I've been away, this country has been torn apart. It's

:23:08.:23:16.

exactly a year to the day since the Arab Spring. Within days there was

:23:16.:23:24.

a bloody response in the capital. The square was cleared but

:23:24.:23:28.

protesters returned. Under intense pressure to stop the revelation,

:23:28.:23:37.

the King brought in the troops. But he appointed a panel of

:23:38.:23:45.

international human rights experts. The head's report galged systematic

:23:45.:23:49.

torture and excessive use of force and the sacking of thousands of

:23:49.:23:55.

workers. Almost all the victims were Shia.

:23:55.:24:04.

And this is why the Government is keen to reassure its allies.

:24:04.:24:11.

Formula One is massive here. Because of the unrest, last year's

:24:11.:24:16.

race was cancelled. 29 Shia employees at Formula One were

:24:16.:24:21.

sacked. This man who runs the Formula One

:24:21.:24:25.

here says mistakes were made here but it is time for the country to

:24:25.:24:31.

move on. These charges were dropped and His Majesty ordered them to be

:24:31.:24:35.

taken back. We opened our arms with full confidence and we welcomed

:24:35.:24:42.

them all back and they are back. But the trades union movement,

:24:42.:24:47.

parolling here outside the Ministry of Labour, disputes the account

:24:47.:24:52.

given by the Formula One chiefs. It says five were not invited back and

:24:52.:24:59.

they were not the only sackings. 3,000 workers lost their jobs.

:24:59.:25:03.

still have more than 1,000 workers dismissed and suspended. All

:25:03.:25:10.

workers, both in private and public sector should be reinstated without

:25:10.:25:16.

any kind of condition and a dignified reinstatement.

:25:16.:25:19.

The country's security forces were heavily criticised in the report

:25:19.:25:26.

but the police are keen to give us their of the story. We were invited

:25:26.:25:32.

to follow an elite unit. They have thrown the gas.

:25:32.:25:39.

police took us to several villages where they encountered makeshift

:25:39.:25:43.

roadblocks and angry young demonstrators. Five police officers

:25:43.:25:48.

and nearly 60 civilians have died since the upridesings began. 12 of

:25:48.:25:54.

the deaths have been attributed to the heavy and inappropriate use of

:25:54.:26:01.

tear gas.. How can we beat them? We just have our shields and the gas

:26:01.:26:07.

and we have flash bangs, that's all what we have here. But this woman

:26:07.:26:14.

in a Shia village tells a different story. This is fire, all the house

:26:14.:26:21.

will be full of gases. She said her mother died after the police threw

:26:22.:26:27.

tear gas into the home of her mother, which she shared with two

:26:27.:26:33.

other families. She was lying here and we tried to cover this area so

:26:33.:26:39.

no smoke would come inside, but no use of this. She already passed

:26:39.:26:44.

away. The police told me if it happened it was an accident. They

:26:44.:26:48.

would not deliberately fire tear gas into a house. Deliberate or

:26:48.:26:51.

otherwise, this incident and others like it have scarred relations

:26:51.:26:59.

between the police and the people. Pictures are all that Amina has

:26:59.:27:04.

left of her 18-year-old son, Mahammed. He was arrested on 25

:27:04.:27:09.

January. A few hours later he was dead. The police say he died of

:27:09.:27:14.

natural causes. His family say it was because he was beaten,

:27:14.:27:20.

something that the police strongly object, but there was no

:27:20.:27:26.

independent autopsy. TRANSLATION: told them I would wait for my son

:27:26.:27:30.

to take him home because he was tired. And the police said they

:27:30.:27:35.

would take him to the hospital. I said I would take him to the

:27:35.:27:39.

hospital, why would you want to take him to the hospital, I'm his

:27:39.:27:44.

mother. He said it is not possible. We would take him to the police

:27:44.:27:49.

hospital and he just told me to go home. I was not expecting it to end

:27:49.:27:56.

in his death, that my son could buy. I've been brought in to add vuz viz

:27:56.:28:02.

the king king. In a surprise career move, John Yeates arrived in

:28:02.:28:07.

Bahrain last month to help reform the police. I think the Government

:28:07.:28:13.

have made excellent progress here in terms of doing some things

:28:13.:28:17.

immediately, but the other issues will take time and you cannot

:28:17.:28:22.

expect wholesale reform to take place in a matter of weeks. Some of

:28:22.:28:28.

this stuff, human rights training for 20,000 police officers is an

:28:28.:28:32.

immense undertaking. I've spoken to people who have told me that this

:28:32.:28:38.

has happened in the last couple of weeks, they've been pick the up and

:28:38.:28:44.

taken to -- picked up and taken to unofficial sites, or not officially

:28:44.:28:51.

recognised, beaten, tortured, they say and I can tell you the sites

:28:51.:28:57.

exactly. Bahrain youth hostel. Municipal buildings, and the racing

:28:57.:29:04.

club. This is happening, they tell me now. So it's present. You're

:29:04.:29:08.

lobbying those things to me now and if those things have happened,

:29:08.:29:13.

there is a proper procedure where they need to make their complaints

:29:13.:29:17.

and it will be addressed and investigated. There's an awful lot,

:29:17.:29:24.

I'm not doubting what you just said, but there is an awful lot of

:29:24.:29:31.

mischief on these social media sites. On a plot of ground that the

:29:31.:29:35.

protesters call Freedom Square, the crowd are demanding that the King

:29:35.:29:39.

step down. The leaders of the main Shia opposition party urge

:29:39.:29:45.

restraint. Many wonder if they can contain the

:29:45.:29:52.

anger. But to understand the depth of that anger, you need to leave

:29:53.:29:57.

behind the glittering towers of Manama and head into poor Shia

:29:57.:30:06.

villages. Communities like Sitra. It's known

:30:06.:30:11.

among activists as the isles of murderers, because many who died in

:30:11.:30:16.

the uprising have come from here. If you want to understand the deep

:30:16.:30:19.

divisions that exist in this country, you come to a place like

:30:19.:30:25.

this. This is a poor Shia community, the streets are strewn with rubbish,

:30:25.:30:32.

the walls are plastered with anti- Government slogans. This one says,

:30:32.:30:42.
:30:42.:30:47.

"Down with King hopld." Zainab's father was jailed for campaigning.

:30:47.:30:53.

What is sectarian about Bahrain is the Government that is trying to

:30:53.:30:59.

divide and conquer. This revolution is demanding Democrat see and

:30:59.:31:03.

freedom for everyone. But the Government is saying, "Sit down and

:31:03.:31:10.

talk to us" why not? We have done that before, but these are

:31:10.:31:17.

dictators and every time they make promises and break them and we're

:31:17.:31:21.

still suffering from sitting down and talking with them in 2001. And

:31:21.:31:27.

the people want to see change. Friday prayers, the country's most

:31:27.:31:36.

senior cleric calls for a peaceful protest. But his sermons are

:31:36.:31:42.

ratcheting up the tension. "Our souls and blood we sacrifice for

:31:42.:31:52.
:31:52.:31:53.

you" they chant. Bahraini Shia are seen as the enemy.

:31:53.:31:59.

Falconio is condemned as a country that will turn the country over to

:31:59.:32:09.

Iraq. We're just Bahrainis. We want reforms in Bahrain. We want reforms,

:32:09.:32:14.

but we want the Government to change. We want to live in peace.

:32:14.:32:21.

America is anxious, Bahrain is a strategic defence partner. Unrest

:32:21.:32:27.

here would be a serious threat. United States has considered

:32:27.:32:32.

Bahrain an important ally. This is a region where we have real

:32:32.:32:35.

security concerns. That relationship needs to go forward in

:32:35.:32:40.

a constructive and a positive way. But we also want a stable society

:32:40.:32:45.

here and one where people are functioning freely in the society.

:32:45.:32:50.

I spoke to the country's Justice Minister and asked if the two sides

:32:50.:32:55.

in this conflict can be reconciled? His Majesty already said that the

:32:55.:33:00.

doors are open. Now there are lots of work going on to bring people

:33:00.:33:07.

together. And it is unfortunate, really, why these positive gestures

:33:07.:33:14.

that have always been dissimulated since the beginning of the problem

:33:14.:33:20.

and calls for dialogue have been boycotted and there is even

:33:20.:33:27.

provocation that amounts to a crime of incitement to violence. As night

:33:27.:33:32.

falls, the daily ritual of protest and violence in the villages starts

:33:32.:33:38.

up all over again. The police say they've taken on board the

:33:38.:33:43.

criticisms levelled at them. In one year on, as the anger builds, time

:33:43.:33:48.

is running out for this tiny country sitting on a dangerous

:33:48.:33:53.

sectarian fault line. Tomorrow night, Sue Lloyd Roberts continues

:33:53.:34:02.

our series looking back on the Arab espionage, looking at female

:34:02.:34:08.

genital mutilation in Egypt. Take me to prison if you want to. Take

:34:08.:34:14.

me any where, but I will continue to circumcise girls. I want the

:34:14.:34:19.

money. All that tomorrow. Now, the British way of life, indeed that of

:34:19.:34:26.

all of Europe is threatened by militant secularisation. This is

:34:26.:34:31.

similar to the anti-lipblious fervour from Stalin and Hitler and

:34:31.:34:38.

other tote tall tarrian leaders. These are the views of Baroness

:34:38.:34:47.

Warsi in a trip to Rome. Baroness Warsi is one of Britain's best-

:34:47.:34:54.

known Muslims. But has she got a point. Our sovereign lady the Queen.

:34:54.:35:02.

With the Monarch at the head of the church as Defender of the Faith,

:35:02.:35:08.

Bishops in the House of Lords put the Church in Parliament too. But

:35:08.:35:13.

some see the proimp of secular values, with Christian hoteliers

:35:13.:35:21.

forced to take gay guests, and the wearing of symbols at work. And

:35:21.:35:29.

this prompt ed this from Baroness Warsi tonight. My fear is that

:35:29.:35:34.

we're so afraid of going backwards in history to the days when

:35:34.:35:41.

religion was imposed on people by despotic regimes that we have got

:35:41.:35:47.

to the stage where aggressive sack larynx is being introduced by

:35:47.:35:54.

stealth. Politicians are often reluctant to do God when in office.

:35:54.:36:01.

David Cameron, however, has expressed views by chime with

:36:01.:36:07.

Baroness Warsi's. It's easier for people to believe and practice

:36:07.:36:17.
:36:17.:36:18.

other faiths when Britain has faith in its Chris ant. Three-quarters of

:36:18.:36:23.

Christians believe religion should not influence public policy and

:36:23.:36:31.

half believe there should be no state religion. So, beyond pomp and

:36:31.:36:34.

nostalgia is Christianity in Britain really in deep trouble.

:36:34.:36:44.

With me is Professor Richard Dawkins, Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali.

:36:44.:36:52.

And Ruth Gledhill. Do you think the Baroness has a point when she talks

:36:52.:37:02.
:37:02.:37:02.

about people about like you, who are militant secularists? I think

:37:02.:37:08.

that's a bit strong, second yarists include many religious people. Many

:37:08.:37:15.

of the great secularists have been religious all they wanted to do was

:37:15.:37:19.

keep religion out of politics. That religion people are free to

:37:19.:37:28.

practice in their own way, but not impose is on other people. The

:37:28.:37:33.

Founding Fathers of the United States founded it in secularism,

:37:33.:37:40.

because they were mindful of the tyre niece they fled from.

:37:40.:37:43.

that's interesting, because religion is stronger in the United

:37:43.:37:51.

States, because they were founded, it's nothing to do with militant

:37:51.:37:59.

secularism. No, we must distinguish between the Church in state and the

:37:59.:38:08.

Jew dayeo Christianism in the state. I whole tenor of public life in the

:38:08.:38:14.

US is governed by the Jew dayeo Christian..So Do you think the

:38:14.:38:19.

Baroness is broadly right? Yes, because if you start with the Magna

:38:19.:38:26.

Carta and The Bill of Rights and the end of slavery and the former

:38:26.:38:30.

nursing profession. These are all explicitly Christian inspired

:38:31.:38:35.

movements that have given us the kind of life we have today.

:38:35.:38:40.

really don't think these good things that the Bishop has

:38:40.:38:45.

mentioned are Christian inspired. The slave trade? Of course, in

:38:45.:38:48.

historical times everybody was religious so there's no question

:38:48.:38:54.

about it. That's not the point. The point is, it explicitly involves

:38:54.:39:02.

God. The Magna Carta is based on a Christian view of God. Ruth?

:39:02.:39:06.

think militant everything is increasing. And when I started

:39:06.:39:11.

writing about religion for the Times in 1989 everybody predicted

:39:11.:39:16.

it would be a dying subject and past the millennium it would die.

:39:16.:39:22.

But here we are talking about it. And we're seeing a consequence of

:39:22.:39:27.

the growing battle between the atheism, the new atheist, as we

:39:27.:39:31.

call people like Richard Dawkins and the religious leaders of today

:39:31.:39:35.

and everyone is fighting their corner with more and more

:39:35.:39:38.

aggression. One of the interesting things about the Baroness is that

:39:39.:39:43.

she talked about her daughter in Rome and she sent her daughter to a

:39:43.:39:49.

Roman Catholic convent and in a way, people such as Richard Dawkins have

:39:49.:39:53.

provided a service to the faith in that they've brought them together

:39:53.:40:00.

in battle against the atheists. So they've created a new horm knee.

:40:00.:40:06.

But why is the Church not raising this? I have been for several years.

:40:06.:40:12.

I'm very pleased that the Baroness has used the words and many of the

:40:12.:40:17.

sentences I've written about in national papers and indeed on your

:40:17.:40:24.

programme so I welcome what she is saying. But if you feel you're

:40:24.:40:29.

sidelined, the Queen and thousands of church schools, what is marginal

:40:29.:40:33.

about that? What is it you would like that you're not getting?

:40:34.:40:40.

it is the paraphernalia, as it were of establishment does not actually

:40:40.:40:44.

mean that Christian faith is at the centre. I'm not asking for a

:40:44.:40:50.

privileged place for the Church, I think what is most important is the

:40:50.:40:54.

Jew dayeo Christian religion in legislation for instance, when it

:40:54.:41:01.

is about the human person or, indeed, policy making. But recently,

:41:01.:41:07.

didn't a judge say our law was nothing to do with Jew dayeo

:41:07.:41:14.

Christianism. But I thought they were judges of the Crown? Let all

:41:14.:41:17.

the Bishops resign from the House of Lords if the Church is not

:41:17.:41:24.

asking for privileges. That's up to them. My point is that the Jew

:41:24.:41:28.

dayeo Christian religion in the Bible is extremely important today

:41:28.:41:34.

for policy. But it is true with things like abortion and stem cell

:41:34.:41:38.

research that the Jew dayeo Christianism does form a lot of

:41:38.:41:44.

that debate. Absolutely and that's one of the problems. The survey

:41:44.:41:49.

that my foundation has brought out this very day, the people who tick

:41:49.:41:53.

the Christian box in the census, we did it the very week after the

:41:53.:41:56.

census took place. People who recorded themselves as Christian

:41:57.:42:01.

and we found out that not only has the number of Christians dropped

:42:01.:42:05.

since the previous census, but those who still counted themselves

:42:05.:42:08.

as Christians no longer believed in lots and lots of things that the

:42:08.:42:14.

religion is supposed to and in particular, things like abortion,

:42:14.:42:18.

things like assisted euthanasia for the terminally ill. They very, very

:42:18.:42:25.

strongly support, in the opposition to their professed Christianity.

:42:25.:42:30.

Ticking the Christian box, in other words many people are normally

:42:30.:42:36.

Christian but it doesn't mean very much? I think that's always been

:42:36.:42:43.

the case in Britain. Christianity is a very broad Church and people

:42:43.:42:48.

have often taken the core beliefs, but not all the doctrine of the

:42:48.:42:53.

Bible. Very few people are fundamentalists, as sometimes in

:42:53.:42:57.

the things you've done, you think all people who call themselves

:42:57.:43:03.

Christians are fundamentalist, whereas they're not and as your own

:43:03.:43:09.

survey pointed out, 64% didn't even believe in God, who called

:43:09.:43:12.

themselves Christians. That's exactly the point because we've

:43:12.:43:17.

found that the people who call themselves Christians, 40% said,

:43:17.:43:23.

"Oh, by Christian means I try to be a good person." But there's nothing

:43:23.:43:28.

wrong with that. Of course not. But if you accept that those people are

:43:28.:43:32.

to be labelled Christian just because they want to be a good

:43:32.:43:37.

person. But define themselves as that. Let me finish. If you accept

:43:37.:43:42.

that people who call themselves Christian on such Nablus grounds as

:43:42.:43:47.

that, that's thrutly fine but what you cannot then do is hijack these

:43:47.:43:53.

people and say "these are Christians therefore we Bishops and

:43:53.:43:58.

priests can count these people as though they voted for us in

:43:58.:44:03.

implementing policy." You cannot have it both ways. But I'm amazed

:44:03.:44:09.

at what your survey shows. 44% of people believe that Jesus Christ is

:44:09.:44:17.

the Son of God and the saviour offer the world. 62% believe in

:44:17.:44:23.

heaven. These are your figures. What kind of commonality are you

:44:23.:44:26.

talking about. But those are percentages of the people who said

:44:26.:44:33.

they were Christian. Which is 70% or something. If our survey is

:44:33.:44:40.

right it has dropped to 54%. will see. A look at tomorrow

:44:40.:44:49.

morning's front pages. The Guardian says the new NHS Bill could harm

:44:49.:44:58.

patient care. And the Times says MPs talk lands

:44:58.:45:04.

visit. They will inspect British defences and the Greece rescue

:45:04.:45:14.

package is in doubt. And the Independent has a report on hunger.

:45:14.:45:21.

And the Dalely Mail has cheap booze to be outlawed. This week is the

:45:21.:45:28.

50th anniversary of the first shoot'em up game space wars,

:45:28.:45:38.
:45:38.:46:08.

created by four students at MIT. It Good evening. It stays cloudy and

:46:08.:46:14.

breezy overnight and tomorrow will be little changed. We'll see

:46:14.:46:19.

brightness develop through the day, the best of the brighter skies to

:46:19.:46:25.

the south-east and northern England. The coasts of Cumbria, Lancashire

:46:25.:46:30.

and Merseyside and Yorkshire it may remain grey and there will an

:46:30.:46:34.

threat of drizzle in the breeze throughout. But most of the country

:46:34.:46:41.

will remain dry but again, closer to the coasts of Cornwall and

:46:41.:46:46.

western and north parts of Wales the westerly breeze will feed in

:46:46.:46:50.

some light rain and drizzle. The best of the brightness in Northern

:46:50.:46:56.

Ireland with be in Omar and Down. The Western Isles will hold on to

:46:56.:47:03.

the cloudy conditions throughout. Wednesday into Thursday and we

:47:03.:47:08.

start to see changes across Northern Ireland and Scotland.

:47:08.:47:13.

Thicker cloud will bring outbreaks of rain. But England and Wales will

:47:13.:47:18.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS