20/06/2012 Newsnight

Tonight, ministers clash over whether foreigners studying in

Britain are immigrants. Universities are worth an estimated

�5 billion to the UK economy, but the Government's relying on cutting

the number of overseas student, to meet the immigration target.

We hear from a university Vice Chancellor, and the Immigration

Minister. When the world economy is not

enough, David Cameron passes judgment on the financial affairs

of a comedian. Think of all those people who work hard, pay their

taxes, and out of that post-tax income, save up to go and see Jimmy

Carr, he's taking that money and stuffing it into something where

doesn't have to pay taxes, that is not fair. Should the Prime Minister

be wading in on an individual's tax arrangements.

The UK city where rough justice is methed out by paramilitary -- meted

out by paramilitary gangs, some how away from the rule of law. It is

the hardest thing in my life I have done, to stand and watch my son

getting shot. I was helpless and powerless, there was nothing I

could do. Iguanas, tropical fish and tortoises, is the foplation of

Ecuador about to be joined by a another strange creature, Julian

Assange. The political deadlock continues in

Syria, what can leaders in the Arab world do to end the violence, we

will ask Prince Hassan of Jordan. Good evening, would you risk a �5

billion industry if you could cut the number of immigrants. Higher

education is one of the Britain's biggest exports for the country.

Should students be included in the immigration target? Newsnight's

learned that one senior minister is pushing in private to have them

exempted, a move that would instantly cut the numbers on paper,

whilst preserve their right to study here. Practical solution or

shriet of hand. London is a down gearing up for the arrival of

countless foreigner, spectators at the Olympics, New Street signs,

nuclearer Tube maps. They will leave, what about those who have

come and not gone. When polled by Tory private

pollsters, after being out-of-touch and living standards, immigration

is the issue dogging voters. At the last election this Government

pledgeed it would act, net immigration, it said, would be down

to tens of thousands by 20156789 Am -- 2015. Ambitious, restrictions by

Theresa May to keep others out have been brought back. It has preturbed

many many, -- the Tories wanted only those earning just less than

�30,000 able to come to Britain when marrying here. Certainly

nobody who might be able to claim benefits. Lib Dems want a lower cap,

now there is a fresh font. Newsnight understand that is David

Willetts is battling the Home Secretary to have students removed

from the cap. He's said to believe that students are not immigrants,

and he's also said the public don't believe students are immigrant. He

pointed out that 15% of students stay as long in this country as an

average immigrant. He points out if we lose students we lose a huge

amount of Exchequer, he's joined across Government by many who agree.

The Home Secretary, May, and Damian Green -- Theresa May, and Damian

Green, have done a huge amount in cracking down on bogus colleagues

and bogus applications. This was a huge issue. But on the other hand,

four of the world's best universities are in Britain, we

have benefited in the country tremenduously that we have

attracted brilliant studented from around the world here. Do we want

to attract the next generation of world leaders, the blilt and others,

they bring with -- built and others, they bring with them diplomat --

Bill Clinton, and others, they bring with them diplomatic ties and

other ties, we don't want to use this.

The immigration balance is at 250,000 a year. The university for

Public Policy Research showed of those students amount today 200,000.

Because Government could provoke a stampede of students leaving in the

critical years before an election, the Government could see many more

than just 100,000 leave, reaching its target very quickly indeed. It

is estimated for every 50,000 students who leave the country, �2-

�3 billion is lost to the economy. We think this is a win-win

situation for them, by removing students from the net migration

figure, and only counting them at the point where they switch to more

important catagories, to marry or to work, you are removing a large

number of migrants from the net migration figure, which looks good,

but also gaining a more accurate figure of migration trends in the

country, which we don't have at the moment. The Home Secretary is

determined to press ahead, and the signs are the Prime Minister does

still agree with her. There is some amusement at the number of Tory MPs

and ministers who think it is their special interest that should be

exempted. Even so, allies of Cable and Willetts think there are a

number of people in the Treasury mind today agree with them. That

you can't block students from an economy and not expect GDP to be

affected. The Prime Minister made a pledge by the 2015 election, the

number of immigrants would be down to tens of thousands. There are

people close to him that think currently they are not on track to

meet. That it risks being as big a breach of promise as Nick Clegg's

was over tuition fees. The opposition think the Government is

in a cul-de-sac on this debate. The adverse effects of immigration come

from EU immigration, they think. This is tricky territory for the

Labour Party, many people think they, in part, lost the 2010

election, because they didn't have enough to say about immigration. On

Friday, Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, will make a speech on the

issue. It is thought he will emphasise the problems are coming

just as much from immigration within the EU, as it does without.

He will struggle to show he has any solution that is go further than

those of his predecessors. Great British jobs for great British

workers. It is expected the Labour leader

will announce policies, sources say, they believe could level the

playing field between British and European workers. This could

include looking at whether the labour market could be change today

discourage factories, recruiting workers from abroad, so gazumping

UK-based job centres. The summer's tourists will be here

very soorpbgs but gone very quickly Labour and the Conservatives

clearly believe the question of who is in or out of the country guide

who is is in or out of power. Green is the immigration minister who

doesn't want students exempted from the gap, Professor Acton, the Vice

Chancellor of the university of East Anglia is here also. When

people think of immigration, if they think of immigration as a

problem, they don't think of the students here studying for a year?

The vast number of people in this country do think uncontrolled

immigration was a problem under the previous Government. It is one of

the most popular things this Government is trying to do, to

control immigration. They don't level the finger at a foreign

student, do they? The definition of an immigrant, it is a UN definition,

not mine or the Government's. It is somebody who comes and lives in

another country for more than a year. Student, Conservative, count

-- students, count, if they stay here for more than a year, the same

way workers do. It is sensible they. Do if somebody is here for up to

five years, then they are living somewhere, they are take up housing,

they are using public transport, they may well be using the health

service. So a student is a migrant? A student here for more than a year

is. David Willetts doesn't seem to think so? I'm relying on a EU

definition. It is something from the IPPR said in the piece, it is

fine for the Government, they can redefine t thank will make

immigration much easier. You can't redesign your way out of a real

problem, that is old fashioned politicians fiddling with figures.

You could say it is a more accurate picture of what is happening. If

only 15% stay in the country, surely, by doing that, you give

people a much more accurate picture? That 15% figure is wrong.

We have done, the Home Office has done a cohort study of the 2004

students, we discovered 20% were here five years later, not just

three years later, which many think is the normal length of a

university course. Anyone here more than a year counts as an immigrant,

there are sensible reasons to count them as so, they are living here.

I'm afraid it is terribly implausible for the Government to

pretend its hands are tied by UN recommendations on international

statistic tisks. It d statistics. It can and should continue to

provide. That in a free and independent country like this, we

exempt university-sponsored students, not all students at the

moment. Because they have such a high compliance with visa

regulation records, as the good minister has brornd to say.

course the university will be saying, that because of course they

are a massive stream of revenue for you? You could, but we must be

careful, nationals interest here, do you know the estimate is for

every ten international students we have here, they support six British

jobs. Six British jobs in retail, entertainment, cafes as well as on

campus. Six for every ten. Push those to Australia, as this

Government is doing, Theresa May may well be celebrated in Australia,

here it is penalising people. double-dip recession, that is a

pretty punchy move?? In a double- dip recession where we have 300,000

unemployed graduates. We need to look at British graduates. I don't

want to discourage university students. The effects of the policy,

the student visas have fallen considerably. More than 500

colleges that used to bring people in don't any more, many, no doubt,

bogus. While the reduction has been big, the percentage of students

studying at university, has gone up from half of total foreign students

to two thirds of foreign students. There is plenty of opportunity to

remove the bogus ones and leave the real ones. That is what we have

done. And taken legitimate students out of your camp? There were 20,000

fewer student visas issued this year than there were. The

percentage of remaining foreign students going to universities are

much, much higher. That is exactly what we said we would do. He's

wrong? This is a secondhand report of what David Willetts has said, he

hasn't said it to me privately. don't think he does say that?

think David is absolutely concerned to have a strong university sector,

so am I. The point made, is actually, it is all very well

talking about the revenue that foreign students bring in, what

about the places they take up from British students? They absolutely

don't. They pay full fee, and we have been capped until very

recently under this Government, into how many student West can take.

They keep plane of the scientific courses alive. They are critical

for job creation, they are why Britain has the strongest

university sector. What do you think will happen, paint us your

scenario, if this goes ahead? this continues, negative message is

notably in India, it will bite deeper and deeper. People will say

Britain is not welcoming. We pick that up all the time. All the

embassies know it. It is an extraordinary thing to be doing

when all the EOCD countries are doing the very opposite. There is

no way you the Immigration Minister can pick on this target of the

student population, it is a soft target? It wasn't, the student visa

was the single biggest loophole in the system up until now. We have

cut 57,000 in the first year from student advise sa. Chinese student

applications are up this year. -- visa. Chinese student

applications are up this year. We talk ourselves into this problem,

no Government minister is saying we don't want foreign students wrecks

want genuine student -- students, we want genuine students. What I

want is genuine students coming here to study, not to work, and

doing it at genuine institutions. The university-sponsored ones,

monitored with the precision that Stalin would have enjoyed. What I

like to hear you say is you want the numbers to grow.

It is hard to imagine any circumstance in which a parent

would hand over their child to be shot. But in a koorn of Northern

Ireland, Londonderry, a dark side - - corner of Northern Ireland,

Londonderry, dark side is emerging. A group is dishing out hard

punishment to those, they say, are dealing drugs. Said to be

responsible of the murder of one, and shooting of at least 40, RAAD

have been advising parents to bring their children to be shot by

appointment to spare them something more serious.

On the western edge of the United Kingdom, this will be centre stage

next year, as the National City of Culture. A break with its divided

past. In pockets of Derry, we have heard about a divided present, in

which some families are forced to part. When one of them is ordered

to move away. Or even when a parent is asked to present their child to

be shot in the legs. It is probably the most hardest thing I have done

in my life. To stand and watch my son getting shot. I think that if

this continues on f they don't allow him back, they will shoot him

dead. This is barbaric what they are doing. They shoot a young man

down, and leave two young children without father. The violence is

centered on the nationalist areas of Craigen and the Bogside, those

responsible used to be members of the Provisional IRA. Now they are

own as RAAD, Republican Action Against Drugs. They claim they

target drug dealers. Some of their victims say otherwise. Three months

ago there was a punch-up outside this bar, two cousins got into a

fight with a member of RAAD. Afterwards their familiar --

families were told they would be shot. The father of one insisted

his son had nothing do with drugs. He was forced to make an appalling

decision. One he's willing to talk about. We sat down as a family and

we discussed our options. Option one, leave the country, which I'm

not doing. Option two, go to the police, which I can't do, for

obvious reasons. They shoot me or shoot my wife or shoot my son dead

for going to the police, and the easiest one was get him shot. We

had to sit, as a family, and discuss the easiest way. That was a

long, long night. Why couldn't you go to the police? I could have went

to the police, I chose not to go to the police. If I wanted the police

I would not be sitting here now. Kieran had one thing going for him.

As a former member of the IRA himself, RAAD were willing to do an

old comrade a favour. They said they would shoot your son once?

because of my background as a Republican. How good much them. My

son is left with a bullet lodged in his leg for the rest of his life.

Other parents also make the same desperate calculation. For this

woman anything to spare her son the dreaded six-pack, bull kets in the

elbows, knee -- bullets in the elbow, knees and ankles. He was

going to get very severely done, I thought the best thing would be to

bring him forward and go with him. That's what he did, he went down

the lane, when he got to the bottom he saw the men coming towards him.

I turned around, then I heard the two shots, and I started, I ran

down the lane. He was just lying on the ground. That's when I thought

he really has been shot. There was blood just lying there. I said are

you all right, he said's already, mamy. The gun men have little

difficulty enforcing their will on the people, in a community that is

afraid of reprisals for talking about them. It turns out people

don't have a lot of choice, come to them and they will use a small

calibre handgun, or if they have to come and get you, it will be with a

shotgun, and the injuries will be far worse, even life-threatening.

This woman's son who has a long history of drug and social problems,

has been ordered out of Derry. been put out of his own home. He

has now had to go somewhere where he doesn't know anybody. It is

really hard for him, he has a lot of problems as well. He's always

had my support. Now he's got no support whatsoever.

Since 2008, more than 40 young men have been shot, dozens more have

been ordered to leave the city. Terroristised by people they know,

but who remain faceless to the outside world. Through an

intermediary, I arranged to meet them.

I have just met and interviewed two members of RAAD's leadership, they

refused to be filmed, but agreed to answer all my questions. Both claim

to be former members of the Provisional IRA. They also said

their group had weapons and explosions and the same capability

that the provisionals had before the ceasefire. That last claim is

described as lacking all credibility by the police. We have

reconstructed the meeting with actors. I asked the men to justify

their assertion that the community is behind them. This isn't just

exprovos, these are people at university, people at work in call

centres, unemployed, women, house wives, the whole community. They

store arms, weapons, explosions, cars, they provide us with meeting

houses, safe houses, wash houses. We're in contact with our community

24-hours a day, seven days a week. We are in and out of people's

houses. But they are scared you have? No. No. That's not it. They

had this to say about their method. We don't beat anybody, we never

have. No, no, we don't. It is a thing we don't do. We shoot people.

We have not beaten anybody. We class our people as volunteers and

soldiers. We give them weapons of war to do their job.

It's long been the language of paramilitary groups across Northern

Ireland. While the tactics have been to resist the police. At a

recent protest, a BBC crew captured the moment when RAAD bombed a PSNI

vehicle. They told us there would be similar

attacks unless police searches stopped. The PSNI have a delem

marks how do they police a community where people -- dilemma,

how do they police a community where people won't give evidence

and their officers may not be safe. We have been brought into the area

with hoax devices planted, and when police officers go in there is

petrol bombs. That means when police officers go in, they have to

be equipped in numbers to protect themselves. That can create an

imagery associated with the past, that these groups seek to exploilt

employment. People who think the police can't people them come here

for support. At Rosemount community centre, Hugh Grady, another former

IRA man, has -- Brady, another former IRA man, has intercedeed in

112 cases in the last 12 months. There is still people who believe

we don't have a proper policing service. In those areas, what they

have turned to are people like RAAD, to deal with drug dealers. We

talked about the instant justice, the difficulty in this community at

the moment is a drug dealer is arrested by the police, they are

charged, they are out on bail the next day. And they continue to deal

drugs. Now the community don't see the process of law and justice, all

they see is a drug dealer back on the street. Back into the community

delivering drugs to their children. So far RAAD have maintained a

distinct identity from the called dissident Republican groups like

the Real IRA. That was blurred recently, when they appeared

together in a protest against policing.

RAAD refused to comment on any links between them and the

dissident groups. Saying their only aim is to tackle drug dealing, and

the anti-social behaviour it brings. Wefrpblgts know we are never going

to eradicate -- We know we will never eradicate the drugs problem

and people will always make profits from other people, but we will make

it dangerous for them. The group boasts they have the means to d

that. We have no way of checking the credibility of their claims.

We're strong enough that we can operate in Derry, Donegal, Strabane,

Dungiven, we have more weapons in the IRA than the IRA had prior to

the ceasefire. We can do everything the IRA used to do we have that

capability. To encourage people to speak out

against RAADa new confidential helpline has been launched. In the

meantime, the gunmen remain judge, jury, and in one case, executioner.

Andrew Alan was first exiled from Derry, then followed over the

border into the Republican lick of Ireland and murdered. They are

saying -- Republic of Ireland and murdered. They are saying he was a

drug dealer and anti-social behaviour, that is their way of

justifying what they done. Andrew's family were adamant that although

he could traibgt trouble, he was not involved with drugs. His --

could attract trouble, he was not involved in drugs. His mother wants

to speak out against this. How can we call this a culture if this is

going on. Next year Derry will show itself off as a vibrant place, but

ever present too is its other culture, of violent republicanism,

people who have kept their weapons and are prepared to use them.

Northern Ireland's justice minister David Ford, joins us from Belfast.

Did you know this was going on? has been clear there have been

small numbers of people, as the report says in pockets in Derry,

who are resisting the move towards political and peaceful progress

that the vast majority of our society is moving on. We shouldn't

exaggerate what it is, nor should we underplay it. You saw man who

took his son at an appointed time to be shot. You sae saw done in

that film and her son was killed. How can this happen? The police

service, in contux with the Department of Justice, announced

the campaign last week against these paramilitary assaults.

did it announce a campaign last week, when these assaulting have

been going on since 2008, and the police force has been in place for

ten years? A police force has been in place for longer than that. What

you also have to acknowledge is the picture across Northern Ireland,

include anything Derry, police officers are able to operate in

places they couldn't a few years ago. When I was in Derry a couple

of months ago, I heard about the efforts each house on the West Bank,

including Bogside and craven, has the phone number and name of their

local police officer, that is something impossible ten or 15

years ago. There are clearly no-go areas that have city? There are no

no-go areas. Why aren't they going there and stopping this from

happening? Would you suggest that rioting happens in parts of London

or crime happens in parts of Birmingham and Glasgow the police

couldn't go there. The rioting hasn't gone on for four years?

realise that organised crime in GB has been going on for a number of

years. No police service can stop action like this, what is clear is

there is positive work going on by the police service, supported by

other agencies. The reference at the end of the clip referred to

Derry and the progress that is being made and the work being done

towards City of Culture next year. Their clean-up rate on

paramilitary-style attacks 4%, don't you find that pathetic?

you have to look at the circumstances in which this is

happening. That is why the particular initiative is being

announced by the police to deal with this. That is why you heard

the mother of Andrew Alan, murdered by RAAD, talking about working to

change things. You are talking about a community that is too

scared to come to the police or approach the state. They take their

children to be shot, because they are too scared not to? We are not

talking about a community that is too scared. We are talking about a

certain number of families too scared to do anything else. You are

in danger of exaggerating what is clearly a very significant problem,

a problem that is being addressed by the relevant agencies, and which

support is needed from the community to back up the work being

done by the police. To suggest that entire communities are suffering

for this is to grossly exaggerate the issue. We shouldn't exaggerate

it, as we shouldn't understatement How have the tax affairs of a

comedian become the concern of the Prime Minister. David Cameron today

branded the tax exploits of Jimmy Carr as morally reprehensible, as

it wasry re- veeld he puts his money in an offshore K2 scheme. The

tax he pays amounts to 1%. Where does tax prudence become tax

avoidance, where does legal behaviour, moral or otherwise,

become a matter for the PM. It is not morally acceptable. I put

it like this. Think of all the people who work hard, and pay their

taxes, out of that post-tax income save up to go and see Jimmy Carr.

He's taking that money and putting it in places where he doesn't have

to pay taxes. That is not fair or right. Newsnight managed to speak

to Jimmy Carr, unfortunately he didn't want to do an interview. We

will hear more of what he said a few moments ago. Why do you think

David Cameron waded in on this one, and what will be the political

consequence of this? We should get one thing clear. The reason we are

talking about it now is an individual was involved. They have

talked about taxes and moral issues before the budget, it has Frances

Osborne talking about sorts of avoidance -- George Osborne talking

about sources of avoidance being morally repugnant. There are all

sorts of things going on with Switzerland, they do think their

record is fairly good. If you are trying to show there is a problem

at the bottom of the society, and at the top, by the same way in

cutting the autop tax, they are happy to be associated with unnamed

individuals behaving the same way as Jimmy Carr does. The Prime

Minister felt he had to wade in. In a consequence he hasn't computed,

because he's slightly tired because of a trip to Mexico, or they aren't

thinking a way ahead, now you have named an individual everyone is

fair game, that is including the Prime Minister's family. The papers

are calling it back to basics for tax. The press will have loads of

fun going at you again and again. I have my guest with me now

Was he riot to step in and call this -- right to step in and call

this morally unacceptable? Whether he stepped in and simply answered a

question is something I don't know. The Prime Minister is right to

answer questions. But I think I would quote Lord collide from 1929

who set out the legal -- Lord Clyde on from 1929 who set out the legal

position on this. He said no man in this country is under the smallest

obligation, moral or others, save to arrange his legal relations to

his business or property, to enable the revenue to put the largest

possible shovel into his stores. That is the moral and legal

position. We have a moral duty to obey the law, but not to pay more

tax than the law requires. The I can't help thinking the

person David Cameron wants to distance himself from right now s a

Lord from 1929? But it was a judgment in a legal case in case on

the Inland Revenue. It is still the law of the land. We have to look at

the law in this case not high terms about what people may or may not

want. Of course we have to deal with the law, but the coalition

agreement was clear at the beginning, wu one of the things we

brought to the discussions -- one of the things we brought to the

discussions, that we have to deal with tax avoidance to tax evasions.

From the very first budget money was put in by the Treasury, just �1

billion to collect �7 billion of uncollected taxes. Then there was

the attempt to get around the stamp duty of Asia, where people had put

their money into an offshore company. We are not talking about

evasion, but about something that is utterly legal, from a law maker

who could change the law f he so thought? The answer is, of course

it has to be dealt with by the law. From all I know the Government is

absolutely determined to make sure everybody pays a decent proportion

of their wages in taxes, and the clever ones and the rich ones, and

the ones with a lot of local and accountany advice, don't manage to

get out of the obligation that ordinary people referred to by the

Prime Minister meet every day. Maybe that is how laws changed, you

get the feel from the public for something they don't like. Maybe

this is the beginning of what will be achange in the law? That is

completely unreasonable, for tax- payers, they need to know whether

they owe tax or not. They can't think does the country think I

should pay a bit more or a bit less. Some tax avoidance...There Is no

morality for you at all in this country? I think it is a legal

question. The Government can change the law. I happen to think...If

earn �3 million and you are earning 1%, do you find anything about that

reprehensible? I think Mr Carr will find as Ken dod did, it is

interesting comedians get in trouble with their tax apayers,

that what he's doing isn't within the law. I -- tax-payers -- tax

problems, what he is doing isn't within the law. I remember the

phrase George Osborne used in the budget, that was about excessive

tax avoidance, as if a little bit is OK, we have talked about ISAs

and pensions, and a lot isn't OK. Who is drawing the line? This is a

debate within Government. But the Government, I disagree

fundamentally with Jacob and his position. The position is the

Government have identified, for example, that there were people

working for the Government as individuals who were organising

their affairs, so they weren't paid directly as salaries. And therefore,

paying the tax in the normal way, pay as your concern, they were

managing their affairs to pay less. That has been ended, the Government

is to track down where they are, and everybody will pay tax properly.

I have discovered there are increasing numbers of organisations,

companies, whoa work for the gofpl, they do public -- who work for the

Government, they do public services. They pay far less than they would

under corporation tax. There must be an absolute ruthless

determination to make sure people don't evade or avoid tax. And

individuals must be subject to the same rules. That is why the debate

earlier this year by the called tycoon tax. Everybody should be

expected pay a don't proportion of their income earned in this country

into the revenue pockets. Do you think this will work out to be tax

evasion? I think the scheme that was reported in the Times, sounds

too good to be true. It is therefore extremely unlikely it is

allowed by revenue rules. What Mr Hughes said was very important, on

the Government employees paid through their companies. He said

they weren't correctly paid. That is the point. If it is inderbgt it

should be -- incorrect it should be stopped F it is legal, people

should not be able and encouraged to pay their views.

-- dues. I know the Times is looking into Gary Barlow, just

received an honour for the Jubilee concert, do you think that should

be revised if it turns out to be right? I don't think you can undone,

in normal circumstances, about what has been done. There is a situation,

and I can't comment on the tax arrangements of the two named

people T seems we have an honours scrutiny committee that rewards

people for public service. If those people aren't paying their public

dues in the normal way, and trying to reduce them to nothing or almost

nothing. There is a question for the honours committee in the future

asking are they the sort of people we should honour. I wish this was a

column in the honours' committee work that was ticked to make sure

they pay taxes properly at the level people would expect.

havens for free speech go, Ecuador doesn't natural low jump to the top

of the list. That makes Julian Assange's choice for asylum a

little more odd.'S holed up there, to avoid extradition to Sweden

where he's wanted for sex all racial gaigss. Why Ecuador, --

Allegation. Why Ecuador, the relationship that started with a

conversation over it. Tfts perfect place for Charles Darwin to study

the origin of species, it is perfect for oil spectators and

banana planters. Why is Ecuador one of the best places of the called

heads of freedom of expression have resided. Few irthan -- few people

have access to the web. Their President, Rafael Correa, according

to the a leading human rights organisation. Frequently rebukes

journalists and media that criticise him. And has taken

reporters to court on the ierb you auto. He has just gone to Ecuador

to ask for political asylum, given that the Ecuadorian Government is

not so friendly with the journalists. The lead in equatorial

newspapers was fine with $40 million, and a sentence of three

years to the three directors. Julian Assange isn't always picky

about his friends. While hosting a show on Russia Today, widely seen

as a Kremlin mouth piece. He became pally with Ecuador's public leader.

TRANSLATION: It is a pleasure to meet you Julian, welcome to the

club of the persecuted. Ecuador has been on a left-wing and anti-

America course. Pursuing disputes with Chevron, and most importantly

for Assange, expeling the American ambassador over WikiLeaks leaks

allegations. There is support among the public and towards others is

great. Perhaps encouraging Assange suits Ecuador's leader, and his

regional ambitions. If he take as lead on this, that will put him in

a very strong political position, in the whole region, the whole

Latin American region. Also next year there are elections in Ecuador,

that will boost his popularity. Lawyers can't think of any similar

recent case, where someone's asked for political asylum in an embassy

in London. Julian Assange's disappearance into

this building yesterday was an act of desperation. Moated if he goes

to Sweden he will be extradited from there to the United States, on

charges of he is peenags naj. The chances of him making -- espionage,

the chances of him making it out are slim.

He would have to persuade Ecuador, the grounds of%cation, the legal

grounds for asylum, and get out of this building without being

arrested for jumping bail. That would be dependant on whether

Ecuador would risk the diplomatic incident to arise, to have a

fugutive in an ambassadoral car, I don't think the people would be

prepared to cause that international incident. Perhaps

Sweden, where he faces rape allegations, could protect him

since the US authorities? I can't manage any circumstances where weed

or any other country would give a prospective guarantee that in no

way it would extradite an individual. Does that mean he's

bound by an espionage title in the States. It is hard to know if they

want to do that and put him on trial for espionage allegations, it

is difficult to know. Will Julian Assange find himself back on the

British streets? I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow if the

Government don't push pressure on them. Assange is making his case

again today?'S Upcalm and calm and optimistic. As the British people

wait outside, even man as resourceful as Julian Assange hey

be running out of actions. The Red Cross says its teams are still

waiting to enter the Syrian city of Homs, where hundreds of civilians

are in desperate need of help. Government forces and rebels agreed

to a two-hour ceasefire because of things going through. Meanwhile in

Egypt, the post-revolutionary turmoil continues. The election

authorities have delayed the announcement of the winner of the

presidential election, which was due tomorrow.

Prince Hassan of Jordan has joined to us discuss this. Syria, does it

seem to you that what we are dealing with is a revolution, or a

civil war? It is a revolution at the present time, being induced by

the Security Council itself. If I can be outspoken. On the one side

you have Russia and China, adamant they will not see a fighting end to

this war. As President Vladimir Putin it, and the Mexican President,

at the G20, they need a political solution, which means dialogue, and

the fighting. Of course, the western countries on the other side

were talking about Chapter seven and upgrading the military

intention potential. If there is no movement from China, can a solution

be found? The solution cannot be found. We know on the nuclear issue,

nothing has moved on Iran in the Moscow talks. And on July 1st, the

nuclear issue is being discussed. On July we have the situation of

terror on terror, the traditional states in the gulf, supporting the

Sunni against the Shia from Iran. In Iraq Syria and Lebanon they have

fear of that access. And there is the basic issue of Iran, any action

against Syria could bring Iran in. Should Bashar Al-Assad go, is

Syria's leader the root use of it? Definitely he should go, as

President Putin has made it clear. He should go as a result of the

wishes of the Syrian people. As you know, the UN, and rash league,

negotiator is Kofi Annan. You think he's a force for bad in that

country? There is so many force force bad, if one could put it in

simplistic terms. In terms of Presidents all over the world. I

think the effect of his going in a vacuum could lead to that civil war

you asked about initially. What you think, itst that fragmentation of

the region or the country? I think of the region. Sectarian violence

that would be unbelievable. One observer put it, the eurocrisis may

be a disaster, but something along those lines in our region would be

mayhem...Post-election, In Egypt, do you think of Egypt as being a

success story of the Arab Spring? The Arab Spring grew from things

that we all believed in, they are no longer runnings the show. The

military have stepped in and the Islamic Muslim Brotherhood have

become front runners. Was it worth it, people who were not involved in

the process in the first place, are now claiming they have a right to

rool. That must be something many young people are asking -- rule.

That must be something everyone is asking themselves about. You knew

Hosni Mubarak, we know he lies on his death bed now, for many in the

west he was the acceptable face of Arab leadership in. Do you wonder

about the choice that has been made and ask why tfps? I got back to the

question about sad leadership, you can't in the west say so and so is

good, because he's pro-western. And his own people will rise up against

him and call for change, will the military step in.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 50 seconds

That is all tonight, good evening, plenty more tonight.

Heavy downpours and thunderstorms across the southern half of the UK

tonight. The wet weather spreads north during tomorrow. The far

North West of Scotland may stay dry, elsewhere expect downpours,

something brighter in the south. The sunshine may spark further

heavier showers across the Midlands, even England during the afternoon.

Brightness could lift the temperatures up to 20. It is cloudy

in the afternoon across the south west. Thunderstorms here at the

moment, they disappear and dry up. The same goes across South Wales,

dryer for the time here but another spell of hot weather during the

afternoon. Heavy showers in Northern Ireland and temperatures

significantly lower than Wednesday. Warmer across the highlands for a

time. Turning cloudy here, concentration on eastern Scotland.

More wet weather to come on Friday, North Wales, North West England and

Scotland. That could build up and may cause a few problems. Further