21/06/2012 Newsnight


21/06/2012

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Gavin Esler, including the Education Secretary's plan to scrap GCSEs.


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Tonight, the biggest shake up for England's schools in decades,

:00:13.:00:17.

splits the coalition. The Government is considering the

:00:17.:00:21.

return of O-level, and the scrapping of GCSEs, plans which

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have already been condemned as devisive, and taking England back

:00:24.:00:30.

to the 1950s. This is self- evidently not policy that has been

:00:30.:00:34.

discussed or agreed within the coalition Government. Will this

:00:34.:00:38.

tackle the culture of competitive dumbing down, as the Education

:00:38.:00:42.

Secretary claims. We will hear from the politician, a leading education

:00:42.:00:45.

campaigner, and a former headteacher. The comedian Jimmy

:00:45.:00:49.

Carr gets serious over his tax avoidance scheme, but why did the

:00:49.:00:53.

Prime Minister single him out for criticism. Why not some prominent

:00:53.:00:57.

Conservative supporting tax avoiders. I'm not going to give a

:00:57.:01:02.

running commentry on different people's tax affairs, that would be

:01:02.:01:06.

right, I made an exception yesterday. We will here from guests,

:01:06.:01:11.

including a fellow comedian. Is this what Egyptians struggled for

:01:11.:01:15.

in Tahrir Square, no President, no parliament, and perhaps a creeping

:01:15.:01:18.

military takeover. Two leading Egyptian writers and thinkers

:01:18.:01:24.

ponder the future of the Arab Spring. As the eurocrisis deepens,

:01:24.:01:32.

British banks have been downgraded. We will have the latest.

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Good evening, if there's anyone close to you tonight, who has

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worked at school for several years, for the privilege of sitting this

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summer's GCSE, then perhaps now is not a good time to tell them the

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examines represent what the Education Secretary -- exams

:01:47.:01:50.

represent what the he had case secretary called the culture of

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competitive dumbing down. Michael Gove wants to scrap GCSEs in

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England, it is the most thorough overhaul in decades. His coalition

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partners are in deep shock over the prospect. It was only over

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breakfast reading the Daily Mail that they first heard of it. Frbgts

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what I want is facts, -- What I want is facts, nothing but facts.

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Facts alone are what is wanted in life. Dickens gave us the obsession

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with facts and facts alone, but when it comes to schooling, there

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are infinate schools of thought, all contentious. 100 years after

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Hard Times, the politicians made the running, Butler's Education Act

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gave us the 11-Plus gram matter schools. In Kenneth Baker, the O-

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level was out and GCSE in. Now under Gove t looks like the GCSE

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goes and the E level returns. It is Mr Gove -- O-level returns. It is

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Mr Gove big idea, and a lot of people want to kill T I think there

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is more negative than positive and that is unfortunate. The problem is

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he has too many strong view, he expresses them too readily, and he

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doesn't do enough thinking before he blurts it out. The Mail called

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Michael Gove the cabinet's one true Tory. They got today's leak, in

:03:17.:03:23.

which he regards as GCSEs as far too easy, they cite questions just

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as how do you view the moon, through a microscope, or telescope,

:03:28.:03:35.

as a prime example. They will have no place in Mr Gove's reborn,

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rigorous O-levels. What are termed less intelligent pupils there will

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be exams on how to read a railway timetable. Mr Gof's - Gove's

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explanations were not discussed with anyone. Mr Gove was called to

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the Commons at 11.00am this morning, to explain exactly what was going

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on. We want to tackle the culture competitive dumbing down, by making

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your exam boards cannot compete with each other on the basis of how

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easy their exams are. And we want a curriculum that prepares all

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students for success, at 16 and beyond, by broadening what is

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taught in our schools, and then improving how it is assessed.

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may well need improving, but a two- teir exam system that divides

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children into winners and losers at 14 is not the answer. Nick Clegg

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was left stuck up a Gumtree by the whole negotiation, after touring

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the rainforest for the Earth Summit in Rio, he said no-one had

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consulted his side of the coalition about O-levels. This is self-

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evidently not policy that has either been discussed or agreed

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with the coalition Government. I would simply say this on the exam

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system, of course we need to make sure we constantly improve the exam

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system so it is rigorous and stretching, but we need to design

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an exam system for the future, not turn the clock back to the past.

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Michael Gove is a Renaissance Man, who wrote leaders for the Times,

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and worked on political programmes for the BBC. He also takes a keen

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interest in the arts. He was a regular on Newsnight review. As a

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critic he was inseesive and impressive. Reviews of his own

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performances as a sat teirist, are rather more mixed. The Chancellor,

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Norman Lamont, through a party for his 50th birthday, he clocked up

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the half century two week ago, but he waited until half the event to

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celebrate, that is a change to the policy he has adopted to the

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economic recovery, he left that for months and there is no sign of it

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happening. Michael Gove's seven years in

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parliament have seen him produce an abundance of ideas, and it has

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increased during his time in office. Michael Gove is an idealist, and

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there are few of those operate anything politics nowadays. The

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advantage of being an idealist is you know where you are going, and

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Michael Gove clearly has a vision, which he is striving to achieve. So

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far that has been extremely successful. He hasn't been held up

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by the business of being in coalition. This week alone, Michael

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Gove's drawn the ire of Lord Leveson, after complaining his

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inquiry into the media is threatening freedom. Now he has

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thrown the education department, his coalition partners, and the

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Tory chairman of the education select committee, into a fit over

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O-levels. How will a two-teir system benefit those who are

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currently being left behind, how will increase social mobility, a

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central aim of this Government, quite rightly the education

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department has two main goals, raise standards for all, and close

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the gap between rich and poor. that from his own side, it is no

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surprise there is no love lost for Mr Gove among the teaching unions.

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It's yet another blurt from Michael Gove, which I think has not been

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thought through. What do you mean by that? He blurts out policies,

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and then he has to start retracting and retrenching, because people are

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saying this hasn't been discussed or thought through. On Monday

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Michael Gove left the House of Commons bemused with this.

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Robert Burns, that great poet once fact, facts are chill that is won a

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ding. Facts are facts, and facts don't lie, even Dickens would agree.

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Who only live by fact. Marsha Carey-Elms is a recently

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retired headteacher, both of a high-achieving grammar school and

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comprehensive. Sir George Young is parent who has campaigned big --

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Toby Young is a parent who has campaigned for changes, Hinds is a

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Conservative MP who supports Michael Gove, and Tom Brake, Lib

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Dem, is also with us. What is wrong with GCSEs? They are just not

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intellectually demanding enough. We can see that from England's,

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Britain's fall in its league table position in the PISA OECD league

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stables You see it you don't get very much at the top? They fail at

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the top and the bottom W the complaints we have heard today, if

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you reintroduce O-levels and GCSEs you will leave lots alienated. If

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you look at Singapore were they do O-level, 80% of children do it. The

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problem with the present system is 40% of children don't get a passing

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grade T fails 40% of children at present. A lot of people have been

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saying there is a problem with the GCSE, there is no point ducking it,

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there is a problem here? We need one system for all young people.

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need one that works, don't we? was Margaret Thatcher who brought

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in the GCSE. We need to see it does work for young people. If there is

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an issue about standards at the top, that needs to be addressed. What

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you shouldn't do is separate 14- year-olds into sheep and goats,

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first-class and second-class, and write off a whole generation of

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young people who will not be able to get the essential qualifications

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they need to succeed. The thing about GCSE standards, we are

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talking about standards for 16- year-olds at basic standards, we

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are not talking about a level at grade C should be attainable for

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every young person, we need all young people to get to that

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standard and we shouldn't write them sof. This is like the grammar

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schools debate, some people want them back, it is not about the

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secondary modern back? We asked people to do a lot with GCSE and

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the breath they cover. There has been grade inflation in the last

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few years, leading to an erosion in confidence in exams. Today's

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discussion is not just about the exams themselves, but it is also

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about that competition in the system, between Exam Boards, it is

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about the pressures on schools at the C-D borderline, and some of the

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crazy incentives that involves. As Toby was saying, we have a two-teir

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system today in terms of the children and young people who are

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left behind. Do you accept that, a, there is a problem, and b, this

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might be the way to fix it? accept we need to look at the

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system. I don't think there is an enormous problem. I'm not sure this

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is the answer. I think that from the point of view of the most

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academic child, right through to the most challenging, the GCSE can

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and does work. If you have inspired and good teachers and good planning,

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you can differentiate lessons such that you can stretch the most able

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and you can engage the most challenging child. So I definitely

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don't like the idea of the devisiveness of writing some

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children off, because there are many young children who are late

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developers, and who, indeed, can cope, and want to achieve well.

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I'm puzzled by this phrase, the "two-teir system", surely there is

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one already. There are some children who do maths and sciences

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and Latin, and employers understand that, and there are other children

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who do media studies and leisure, and so on, and employers also

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understand that. They are probably not going to go to the best

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universities? I think what this would do, with O-level, and CSEs,

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or something equivalent t would entrench it further. It was

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interesting that the detail of what's been reported in terms of

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the leak, there is an awful lot in there about O-levels and the

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tougher exams, and actually very little about what the 25% who

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wouldn't be expected do this higher level exam would actually be able

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to do. Isn't that the point, you were saying it is not

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intellectually challenging enough at the top end, what is in it for

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the people at the bottom end. They are told at age 14 you are too dim

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to sit a proper exam, you will get a second-grade exam? You are

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talking like it would be an irreparable blow to these

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children's self-esteem. This may shock you, I sat C se.s in several

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subject, half in O-levels and half in CSEs, it didn't do irreparable

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damage to my self-esteem, I recovered, I retook the other exams,

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I took three A-levels and went on to Oxford. It is possible to have a

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two-teir system and retain your self-esteem. Some people fail and

:12:23.:12:27.

we have to get used to it? If all the people were like Toby Young we

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wouldn't have a problem and people would know how to get on. In my

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school in the 1970 half of those who entered for O-level and those

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to CSE, the CSEs had the worst teachers, the lowest aspiration, no

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expectation to stay on after 16, or going on to do higher level

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qualifications over the age of 16. We do not want to go back to that

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world. Margaret Thatcher brought in the GCSE in the 1980s. If this is

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such a great idea, why was it not in the Conservative manifesto and

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the coalition document. Is it just worth in straight forward political

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terms for having a great big row with the Liberal Democrats over

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something you never promised and didn't put down. To go with Lord

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Adonis's point, nobody wants to go back to that world that he outlined.

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It is about exams with the right depth and brept to make them useful

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for young people what has changed is school or college going up to 18

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for all young people. You can do the core skills in English and

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mathematics, equipping you for life and work, and then doing a higher

:13:34.:13:38.

exam at 18 and beyond. You didn't think of mentioning it at any point

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until now during the coalition agreement and so on? The timing of

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today's leak is not ideal. Sometimes these things happen, now

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there is going to be a debate, that is a good and healthy thing. It was

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a deliberate leak, wasn't it? have no reason to believe it was.

:13:54.:13:57.

Presumably you choked on your cornflakes when you read it this

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morning? I did, but as I understand it, so did Number Ten, so did the

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Deputy Prime Minister, and at least one Education Minister. This is

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something I think Michael Gove has floated as an idea. You see it as a

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blurt, do you, as the lady said in the film? That is an accurate way

:14:14.:14:18.

of decribing it. Now it has to go back in house, and the broad

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conversation that Michael Gove said he wanted to have, that has to

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happen within the coalition Government. Would it be a deal-

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breaker for the coalition Government, I understand from The

:14:27.:14:33.

People's Podium who think this wouldn't need primary lepblgs --

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people, who think this wouldn't need primary legislation, it could

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just go through? The first thing with schools is we have to tackle

:14:41.:14:44.

inequality I have to ask the supporters of this proposal, how

:14:44.:14:50.

would it tackle inequality. shouldn't lose sight of the fact

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you can do O-levels in the present system, they are called IGCSE, and

:14:56.:15:02.

regarded as good as the old O-level. You can only do them at independent

:15:02.:15:04.

schools, since the change of Government they have begun to be

:15:04.:15:09.

taken up in state schools. Before 2010 you could only do them in

:15:09.:15:13.

independent schools. That means only the children of the well off

:15:13.:15:19.

have access to the intellectually rigorous exams. Under the new two-

:15:19.:15:25.

teir system, at least if you take the intellectually challenging exam

:15:25.:15:31.

will be down to intellectual merit? That is not true, there are lots of

:15:31.:15:36.

things like IGCSE that is we can look. To let's not forget the

:15:36.:15:39.

children in this debate. There are hundreds of thousands of children

:15:39.:15:43.

take their GCSEs as we speak, it is rotten for them to be subject to

:15:43.:15:46.

the idea that what they are doing is going to be rubbished and not

:15:46.:15:50.

rigorous enough. Secondly those young people we say we don't think

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you are quite bright enough at the moment to take on something further,

:15:53.:15:56.

that is really knocking their confidence, and we don't want that

:15:56.:15:59.

in young people. Isn't it also a fact, unfortunately for some young

:15:59.:16:03.

people, that you are not going to go to university, or get A-levels,

:16:03.:16:07.

perhaps levelling at some point, it is going to happen in life some

:16:07.:16:12.

time? Twof keep people's expectations high. We have to build

:16:12.:16:15.

people's confidence. That is really a very negative thing, and we

:16:15.:16:19.

mustn't be giving that message to young people. Any child to who gets

:16:19.:16:24.

a decent education should be able to get a grade C in GCSE in English,

:16:24.:16:27.

maths and other subjects, that should be regarded as basic

:16:27.:16:30.

standard. If you don't regard it as a basic standard for all young

:16:30.:16:33.

people, then you are cutting the ladder of social mobility, you are

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moving back to a two-teir society, that is nowhere we need to be in

:16:39.:16:44.

the century. You are saying if our system worked better and 100% of

:16:44.:16:50.

children got a C in maths and two others in GCSE, it might be a

:16:50.:16:54.

preferable system. You have poured resources into t it has been tried

:16:54.:16:59.

for many years, since the Conservative Government introduced

:16:59.:17:02.

GCSE, the evidence s if you look at the league table, the evidence is

:17:02.:17:06.

it is not working, it is failing 40% of the children. That is why

:17:06.:17:10.

the Government, quite rightly, this is something we can agree on, are

:17:10.:17:15.

focusing on pupils who need the support the most through the pupil

:17:15.:17:18.

premium, that is providing very large sums of additional money,

:17:18.:17:21.

that is used very specifically to support the children who need it

:17:21.:17:26.

most. Troll make sure that they benefit -- really to make sure that

:17:26.:17:32.

they benefit from the system the way the majority do. The answer is

:17:32.:17:36.

not to give up on those, but to have more schools, he's pioneering

:17:36.:17:39.

a school that will be of high quality, schools to get to that

:17:39.:17:42.

high standard, than this fatalism that writes off large part of

:17:42.:17:45.

society, saying they are not capable of get to go basic

:17:45.:17:48.

educational standards. That is what those of us who have been involved

:17:48.:17:53.

in educational reform have been seeking to overcome. The system is

:17:53.:17:57.

biased against t there is so much focus on the five plus, C plus

:17:57.:18:01.

method, if you are a young person with no prospect of getting to a

:18:01.:18:06.

grade C in GCSE, the incentives are not in the system to do the best

:18:06.:18:10.

you can. The same goes to children at the top of the ability spectrum.

:18:10.:18:14.

You might look at making sure everybody at 16 goes away with

:18:14.:18:21.

qualification that is are relative and they can still build at 16 and

:18:21.:18:27.

18 beyond. We have to be optimistic, being a young person in 2012 is a

:18:27.:18:31.

difficult place to be there are lots of choice, there is rigour in

:18:31.:18:35.

the system. The young people have to cope with so much more, you

:18:35.:18:39.

can't make useful comparisons with the O-levels and today's exams. It

:18:39.:18:44.

was fact and learning by route, today you have to apply your droe,

:18:44.:18:47.

today you have to apply your knowledge and work things out, they

:18:47.:18:50.

have to do masses more than in the past. It is very difficult, it

:18:50.:18:55.

needs a measured debate, not kneejerk reactions, it needs a lot

:18:55.:18:58.

more discussion. Do you not see the merit in having one exam for

:18:58.:19:02.

everybody, a common standard for everybody, do you not see that as a

:19:02.:19:07.

good principle for education? problem with that is, the exam has

:19:07.:19:11.

to be too broad in order to encompass the entire broad range of

:19:11.:19:14.

the ability spectrum, which means that people at the top aren't going

:19:14.:19:18.

to be challenged enough by it, and people who least able will struggle

:19:18.:19:23.

to do it, what is wrong with having two. Can you see a coalition

:19:23.:19:26.

actually pushing this through? think that would be very difficult.

:19:26.:19:30.

I think what there is agreement on within the coalition is we need to

:19:30.:19:33.

raise standards. But there are ways of doing that. If there is an issue

:19:33.:19:37.

with the different exam boards saying to schools, look come with

:19:37.:19:40.

us, because actually you can get a better result, let's do something

:19:40.:19:44.

about that, and make sure there is a consistent standard. Is that

:19:44.:19:49.

common ground, do you agree with that, broadly, that it is?

:19:49.:19:52.

present Government has set up a quango specifically to push

:19:53.:19:56.

standards up in terms of the rigours of exams, that is

:19:56.:20:00.

absolutely right. What you mustn't do is cut the ground beneath A

:20:00.:20:04.

large proportion of teenagers who would be incapable of sitting exam

:20:04.:20:08.

that is would get them on in life. We mustn't go down that road.

:20:08.:20:11.

you very much. Now, the comedian, Jimmy Carr, has

:20:11.:20:16.

gone all serious today, he made a terrible error of judgment, and

:20:16.:20:21.

promises to conduct his financial affairs much more responsibly. His

:20:21.:20:27.

apology comes after big pilloried by the Prime Minister as "morally

:20:27.:20:35.

wrong", for an apparently ingenious tax evading scheme called K2. Gary

:20:35.:20:40.

Barlow, the Take That singer, who also used an avoidance scheme, has

:20:40.:20:50.
:20:50.:20:51.

not been part of David Cameron's attack.

:20:51.:20:54.

Paul Mason Rowe reports. Here, heard the one about the Prime

:20:54.:21:00.

Minister who called a comedian "morally wrong", for avoiding tax?

:21:00.:21:04.

You have now as Jimmy Carr tried to get his head around a world where

:21:04.:21:08.

if you earn a lot of money you pay tax on it. David Cameron was trying

:21:08.:21:13.

to xain himself. In terms of people's tax -- Explain himself?

:21:13.:21:16.

terms of people's tax affairs, of course people can plan their tax

:21:16.:21:19.

affairs and put money into their pension, that can have an effect on

:21:19.:21:22.

their tax bill and all the rest of it. That is sensible, fair and

:21:22.:21:26.

reasonable. As the Chancellor of the Exchequer said, some of these

:21:26.:21:29.

aggressive, anti-avoidance schemes, that may not be illegal, are

:21:29.:21:33.

morally questionable. When it comes to tax avoidance, the

:21:33.:21:38.

old ones are the good ones, specifically the case of Inland

:21:38.:21:40.

Revenue versus the Duke of Westminster.

:21:40.:21:45.

The House of Lords ruled in 1935 that rich people were entitled to

:21:45.:21:55.
:21:55.:22:10.

do as much as possible to avoid The UK is, in effect, like a tax

:22:10.:22:16.

haven. Not in the same way as say the BVI or Jersey, but there are

:22:16.:22:18.

certain provisions and encouragements that the Government

:22:18.:22:23.

brought in, to help people minimise the tax. With the purpose of

:22:23.:22:28.

probably creating employment, and creating growth. I can name you

:22:28.:22:33.

countless number of incentives, which, are, reducing tax, and which

:22:33.:22:37.

may be regarded as avoidance. But perfectly legal and have the

:22:37.:22:45.

blessing of the Treasury. It was in December 2010 that

:22:45.:22:49.

Britain's status as a legal tax haven started to look uncomfortable.

:22:49.:22:55.

Then it was Vodaphone getting it in the neck, and Philip Green, the

:22:55.:22:59.

boss of Arcadia, since then, the battle has widened. It is obvious

:22:59.:23:01.

there is a battle going on between the tax avoiders, the politicians

:23:01.:23:05.

and the state. It is up to the politicians to decide to win that

:23:05.:23:10.

battle. The tools to do it are available. We could have a general

:23:10.:23:13.

anti-avoidance principle, not a rule, because rules are always

:23:13.:23:16.

broken by accountant, but a principle that gives the power to

:23:16.:23:19.

the revenue to overrule artificial schemes, a tax them on the

:23:19.:23:25.

substance of what is really going The Inland Revenue has indeed

:23:25.:23:29.

proposed an anti-avoidance rule, not the stricter principle wanted

:23:29.:23:33.

by tax campaigners, but while the rule is out for consultation, the

:23:33.:23:36.

revenue has begun to act, cracking down on schemes using the movie

:23:36.:23:45.

business as a way to pay less tax. To some people paying tax is an

:23:45.:23:49.

anathama, and they want to reduce paying tax. If the incentive ace

:23:49.:23:54.

veilable don't work for them in whatever they are trying to do then

:23:54.:23:57.

they will resort to these schemes, and the ramifications are serious,

:23:57.:24:01.

if one has gone into one of these schemes, then probably, I have no

:24:01.:24:05.

evidence to support that, their card is marked by the revenue, they

:24:05.:24:08.

will question everything they do in the future, and probably look back

:24:08.:24:14.

in the past and see whether there has been any misdemeanors. Morality

:24:14.:24:18.

has never been a matter in the British tax system, if it was, the

:24:18.:24:21.

biggest problem would be this, only the rich and self-employed even

:24:21.:24:25.

have the opportunity to avoid tax. There is no Duke of Westminster

:24:25.:24:31.

principle for those on PAYE. In contrast to the case of Jimmy

:24:31.:24:35.

Carr, the Prime Minister refused to comment on the tax affairs of Gary

:24:35.:24:39.

Barlow, also reported to be using an aggressive tax avoidance scheme,

:24:39.:24:44.

but a Conservative supporter. When it came to Philip Green, the

:24:44.:24:49.

PM famously said, well he doesn't comment on individuals.

:24:49.:24:54.

For tax campaigners, there is an even bigger mixed message going on.

:24:54.:24:57.

On the one hand they are condemning Jimmy Carr for moving his money to

:24:58.:25:02.

Jersey, to use it effectively as a personal bank. And at the same time,

:25:02.:25:05.

quite literally at the moment, they are creating laws so that

:25:05.:25:09.

multinational corporations can move their money to use it as, well

:25:09.:25:14.

their personal bank, and either to pay no tax at all, or a maximum of

:25:15.:25:20.

5.5%, that is real hypocrisy. Britain's "fill your boots culture",

:25:20.:25:24.

on tax avoidance goes back decades. As austerity bites, it looks less

:25:24.:25:33.

and less funny. The comedian Marcus Brigstock was

:25:33.:25:37.

offered a tax scheme similar to Jimmy Carr and declined. Giles

:25:37.:25:47.
:25:47.:25:47.

Fraser was former canon of St Paul's, and our other guest is with

:25:48.:25:51.

us. What were you offered? Something similar to Jimmy's, but

:25:51.:25:58.

with a sweet extra thing on the end. You give all of your earnings to

:25:58.:26:02.

this trust and they loan it back to you so you don't pay any tax on it.

:26:02.:26:10.

When you die they say you owe us all the money you have lone -- lone

:26:10.:26:14.

today us, we will take it all and your children don't have to pay tax.

:26:14.:26:18.

Just like Jimmy I made a massive error of judgment, and I said, no.

:26:18.:26:24.

Were you a mug in saying no? No, it wasn't something that I could do.

:26:24.:26:28.

But my comedy, the difference may be subtle to people outside, my

:26:28.:26:33.

comedy is a bit different from Jimmy's, he has never made any real

:26:33.:26:39.

claims for himself as a politically engaged comedian. He did the sketch

:26:39.:26:43.

about Barclays and their aggressive tax avoidance stuff, which, now,

:26:43.:26:49.

has made him look very, very stupid. It is the hypocrisy factor? In his

:26:49.:26:57.

own stand-up there isn't anything else. Certainly that sketch on

:26:57.:27:01.

10..00 Live, the ip pockcy has made him look fool -- the hypocrisy has

:27:01.:27:07.

made him look foolish. Do you think, to put a fine a point on it, he's a

:27:07.:27:11.

mug? The problem with comedians is they have a reputation management

:27:11.:27:16.

issue. If Jimmy Carr make as lot of money from left-leaning students

:27:16.:27:24.

paying money to go to his shows, and the Show was a left-leaning

:27:24.:27:30.

show, he has a reputation management problem. Are you happy

:27:30.:27:35.

to avoid tax legally when you can? I'm a tax dodger, I dodge tax in

:27:35.:27:39.

all sorts of ways. Some of it seems to be schemes the Government has

:27:39.:27:43.

intentionally set up, an ISA, tax relief on my pension contribution,

:27:43.:27:48.

I use that, that seems to be the Government's intention. To give awe

:27:48.:27:55.

recent example, a week ago I bought 600 cigarettes in Belgium, purely

:27:55.:28:01.

and entirely on the fact that they are five euros a pack, I bought

:28:01.:28:04.

them for one reason and one reason alone, to avoid the Government's

:28:04.:28:11.

tax, and the Government is �200 a year worse off. You should smoke

:28:11.:28:14.

them! The moral side of this, because it was the Prime Minister

:28:14.:28:20.

who raised that, is somebody more of a saint because they fess up and

:28:20.:28:24.

say here is the money back. Are they a sinner because they go off

:28:24.:28:28.

and buy cheap cigarettes in Belgium, or is it the scale of the thing

:28:28.:28:32.

that counts? We shouldn't make this a question about individuals, for

:28:32.:28:36.

me. I'm proud to pay tax, I think I'm proud to pay tax, I think we

:28:36.:28:39.

should get more into a culture of people being proud to pay tax, it

:28:39.:28:44.

is our subscription to living in a fair society. The problem s we have

:28:44.:28:50.

now a situation where, you know, the CEO pays less tax, as a pro-

:28:50.:28:55.

portion of his or her income, than the cleaner in that company. That

:28:55.:29:04.

situation is so grossly unfair and perceived to be widely. We can talk

:29:04.:29:09.

about border line calls, but you know it when you see it. What we

:29:09.:29:12.

see, not necessarily in Jimmy Carr, but in huge corporations paying

:29:12.:29:16.

very, very little, or almost zero tax, because they have clever

:29:16.:29:20.

accountants, not available to ordinary people. That is clearly

:29:20.:29:27.

wrong. We don't expect, presumably, these huge organisations to do What

:29:27.:29:31.

Car? Car did, being shamed into it, saying sorry and paying the money

:29:31.:29:34.

into it? That is why the Prime Minister is happy to name Jimmy,

:29:34.:29:40.

he's a face and lots of people know who he is, and he's quite useful. I

:29:40.:29:44.

have to say it was remarkably clumsy of Cameron, some of whose

:29:44.:29:47.

funders and closest friends are certainly in avoidance schemes very

:29:48.:29:54.

simple later to Jimmy's. Not just the companies that have -- similar

:29:54.:29:58.

to Jimmy's, not just companies but on a personal level. Jimmy is a

:29:58.:30:03.

comedian and he sticks himself out there and the Prime Minister can

:30:03.:30:08.

call him moral or immoral. How many companies have done what he has

:30:08.:30:11.

done, saying I'm terribly sorry, we got it wrong, we change our minds

:30:12.:30:16.

and will do it differently. There hasn't been any of that. Surely it

:30:16.:30:20.

should be a question more laugh than of shaming people into it. The

:30:20.:30:24.

law should say you have to pay up? In my view, I don't want to hear

:30:24.:30:28.

David Cameron's moral judgment ones Jimmy Carr's tax affairs, his

:30:28.:30:32.

marital status, sex life or anything else. I'm not interested

:30:32.:30:36.

in David Cameron's morality, David Cameron, Frances Osborne and Danny

:30:36.:30:40.

Alexander set the rulebook, it is 15,000-pages long. It is impossible

:30:40.:30:43.

for any single human being to understand the tax code of this

:30:43.:30:46.

country. But Cameron, Osborne and Alexander control that. Some people

:30:46.:30:51.

understand how to get round the tax code in this country, it would

:30:51.:30:54.

appear? In that case Frances Osborne and David Cameron need to

:30:54.:30:58.

change the rules. It is like Sepp Blatter saying it is a moral

:30:58.:31:04.

outrage there isn't video refereeing. It is in his control.

:31:04.:31:08.

The rules can't cover all the eventualities, you have the rules

:31:08.:31:11.

and you can find clever ways around them. You need something to jun pin

:31:11.:31:14.

the rules, something you might call a sense of responsibility or

:31:14.:31:17.

something to do with moralty. I may have a different one to the Prime

:31:17.:31:20.

Minister. But there needs to be a sense of the common good, something

:31:20.:31:24.

about fairness. Not everybody has got it, as you well know, tough

:31:24.:31:27.

legislate for that, you have to legislate for people who will only

:31:27.:31:33.

do it if they are shamed into it? I'm not saying take the law away,

:31:33.:31:40.

the law is important, and it is worth looking at tax avoidance

:31:40.:31:43.

legislation. That is easy to sort out without statute. We used to

:31:43.:31:47.

have a lot of common law cases. What hinges legally and morally is

:31:47.:31:51.

was this Jimmy Carr's income, it should be treated as income for

:31:51.:31:55.

revenue reasons, or wasn't it. We need a much more simple code that

:31:55.:31:58.

threets, for example, what you get in income and what you get in

:31:58.:32:01.

capital games, on the same percentage, not different

:32:01.:32:04.

percentage, because everybody plays silly games with T I reckon we

:32:04.:32:09.

should be able to get the principles of the code down in 15-

:32:09.:32:14.

pages not 15,000. They are already ahead of any possible legislation,

:32:14.:32:17.

that is the game they are in. They take a percentage from these

:32:17.:32:21.

schemes, and so anything that they come up with, the IFAs are ready

:32:21.:32:25.

just to make the next step round. I don't know whether it is actually

:32:26.:32:29.

possible to legislation against this. I do this, if Frances Osborne

:32:29.:32:34.

and David Cameron, are trying to make some -- George Osborne and

:32:34.:32:40.

David Cameron are making some political capital they much make a

:32:40.:32:44.

bigger effort than thus far. seemed to be a good thing for this

:32:44.:32:47.

country, that the Prime Minister says f there's high tax rates in

:32:47.:32:52.

France and these rich people from France want to come here, we will

:32:52.:32:55.

welcome them? That was the day before he made a moral judgment

:32:55.:32:58.

about Jimy. Saying you are paying too much in France, -- Jimy. Saying

:32:58.:33:04.

you are paying too much in France, come over here. Supposing for

:33:04.:33:08.

example, Jimmy Carr decided to become an American citizen, and

:33:08.:33:13.

work in the United Kingdom for 50- 60 days a year as a cheedian, and

:33:13.:33:18.

pay all of his tax -- comedian, and pay all of his taxes in the staid

:33:18.:33:26.

of Texas, would that be immoral? Fair number of people become

:33:26.:33:30.

citizens of Monaco for tax reasons. This conversation is not going off

:33:30.:33:33.

in the wrong direction, but unless it is underpinned by a sense of

:33:33.:33:36.

possibility, you will always find clever people who will get round T

:33:36.:33:40.

the idea that you actually have a sense of shame about not paying

:33:40.:33:45.

your taxes properly, it seems to me that's something, people brag about

:33:45.:33:50.

it and think it is a jolly good thing they pay no tax. The sense of

:33:50.:33:53.

shame should been what you do with your money, that need not be about

:33:53.:33:58.

handing it over in tax, it is about your overall contribution to

:33:58.:34:03.

society, or to charity. Egypt is still without a

:34:03.:34:06.

democratically elected President tonight, a the Election Commission

:34:06.:34:10.

refuses to say who has won. Tahrir Square, more than a year after the

:34:10.:34:13.

fall of the Mubarak regime, continues its now familiar display

:34:13.:34:19.

of protest. Stoked up by the newly assumed military rule. For years

:34:19.:34:23.

people across the Arab world have looked to Egypt, the strongest and

:34:24.:34:28.

most populist Arab country for leadership. Now Egypt is in

:34:28.:34:31.

political limbo, or worse. Our diplomatic editor has recently

:34:32.:34:35.

returned from Egypt. Where are these presidential results that we

:34:35.:34:39.

were supposed to have had? There was initially talk of having them

:34:39.:34:43.

yesterday, then today. Now it has been postponed, there is some

:34:44.:34:48.

rumours in Cairo tonight that it might come out at the weekend.

:34:48.:34:54.

Meanwhile Ahmed Shafiq, one of the candidates, who most people think

:34:54.:34:59.

have lost, tonight declared he was the winner, even though most of the

:34:59.:35:02.

accounts people have suggest he isn't the winner. And the other

:35:02.:35:06.

candidate, Mohammed Morsi, the man backed by the Muslim Brotherhood's

:35:06.:35:09.

political Government, the Freedom and Justice Party. Most people

:35:09.:35:15.

think he has just under% more votes and he should be the winner. As it

:35:15.:35:19.

stand -- 2% more votes and he should be the winner. As it stands

:35:19.:35:24.

we have no winner. How have the people been responding to all of

:35:24.:35:30.

this? The public response has been curious in a way. A week ago this

:35:30.:35:34.

extraordinary judgment came out of the Supreme Court dissolving

:35:34.:35:40.

parliament. This had been elected with a very large prepondrance of

:35:40.:35:44.

the members from the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists, they

:35:44.:35:50.

said the lot of them can go due to a technicality in Egyptian law.

:35:50.:35:53.

Many of us expected huge demonstrations to protest this,

:35:53.:35:57.

virtually nothing happened. The question now is that each move that

:35:57.:36:01.

the military council, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, or

:36:01.:36:04.

SKAF makes, seems to be calibrated by the reaction it causes or

:36:04.:36:08.

doesn't cause. It seems that the absence of reaction, to the

:36:08.:36:11.

disillusion have of -- dissolution of parliament, led them to take

:36:11.:36:15.

this staggering step, if you like, on Sunday night, pretty much

:36:15.:36:19.

reversing all of the gains of the revolution, apart from the ousted

:36:19.:36:24.

of Hosni Mubarak, and to take this step to give themselves these

:36:24.:36:29.

extraordinary powers. If Dr Mohammed Morsi is made President,

:36:30.:36:34.

he won't be able to scrutinise or sign off the budget, or declare war.

:36:34.:36:38.

We won't be able to dissolve parliament if and when it gets

:36:38.:36:42.

reconvened and elected. He's in a tight spot. What are the options

:36:42.:36:47.

for the Muslim Brotherhood, on the brink of power, but not much power?

:36:47.:36:51.

Most people think there is going to be a difficult period of prolonged

:36:51.:36:53.

crisis but effectively of negotiation between the two sides

:36:53.:36:58.

in this. The military, I think, at some level, accept they can't hold

:36:58.:37:03.

all the power. Some suggest, I have heard senior officers suggest, that

:37:03.:37:07.

they want Dr Morsi to take all the responsibility politically for all

:37:07.:37:11.

the bad things that will happen in Egypt politically over the next

:37:11.:37:15.

year, particularly on the economic front. The Brotherhood is calling

:37:15.:37:18.

for more mass protests tomorrow, Friday, of course, they are calling

:37:18.:37:21.

for a huge protest, they are talking about occupying Tahrir

:37:21.:37:24.

Square continuously now. Until their grievances are met,

:37:24.:37:30.

parliament is reinstated, and the country is put back on a proper

:37:30.:37:34.

constitutional basis. Let's speak now to two distinguished Egyptian

:37:34.:37:39.

writers, one among the crowds in Tahrir Square, and Tariq Ramadan,

:37:40.:37:46.

author of the Arab Awakening, her grandfather was one of the founders

:37:46.:37:50.

of the Muslim brother Hoo. How worried are you about your country?

:37:50.:37:55.

I'm very worried at the moment, but I'm worried in the short-term. I

:37:55.:38:05.
:38:05.:38:05.

think in the long-term, there is no rolling back what has happened.

:38:05.:38:09.

People went out because the country was on the knees and not run in the

:38:09.:38:13.

interests of the people. People had enough, they demanded a decent life,

:38:13.:38:21.

freedom and human rights. They are not going to go back on these

:38:21.:38:25.

demands. And the people, can they live with either person as

:38:25.:38:32.

President? No. In what way? General Shafiq is a return to the old

:38:32.:38:36.

regime. General Shafiq presents the old regime coming back,

:38:37.:38:43.

consolidated with the military. Resuming power. The Muslim

:38:43.:38:48.

Brotherhood are not what the revolution was about, they are not

:38:48.:38:52.

what the revolution really wanted. They are not why you took to the

:38:52.:38:56.

streets? No, but they are still a strand within the revolution, and

:38:56.:39:00.

they are still demanding change. How concerned are you that actually

:39:00.:39:05.

what we are seeing is this very slow, effectively, a mill tro coup,

:39:05.:39:09.

it is the military coming back into power one way or another? I think

:39:09.:39:14.

this is the case. It is not something we can only see now when

:39:14.:39:17.

I was writing the book, I straight away said behind the scenes it is

:39:17.:39:20.

not as simple as that. The military and from within we have tendencies

:39:20.:39:24.

within the mill tree, struggling and some were supporting --

:39:24.:39:28.

military, struggling and some were supporting Mubarak and some were

:39:28.:39:31.

against. This is the taking over from behind the scenes. I never

:39:31.:39:35.

used the concept of revolution, and there was not talking about the

:39:35.:39:45.
:39:45.:39:48.

Arab Spring, in the region we have something which is a chess game.

:39:48.:39:53.

The only revolution we have in the Arab world is intellectual, we can

:39:53.:39:55.

make it without violent demonstration, we can act against

:39:55.:39:58.

the Government. Now what is happening with the institution is

:39:58.:40:02.

to get someone in power who will have power without authority. It

:40:02.:40:05.

could be Morsi or Shafiq, for the time being, what they are telling

:40:05.:40:10.

us and they said this two days ago, is in the coming we are going to

:40:10.:40:13.

get a President for six months and then we will start again the whole

:40:14.:40:16.

process. What does it mean, it means nothing is changing. One

:40:16.:40:20.

thing I want to say, is that there are internal struggles, we also

:40:20.:40:25.

have to look at the region and see who is also supporting what is

:40:25.:40:29.

happening, because I don't think that we get it right if we think

:40:29.:40:32.

that the transparency and the democratic process is supported,

:40:32.:40:34.

for example, by the American administration today. I don't think

:40:34.:40:39.

so. There is a question of outsiders, but you seem to be

:40:39.:40:42.

fundamentally optimistic, given the fact that as we said earlier, there

:40:43.:40:46.

is no Government, no parliament, no constitution, it is not clear who

:40:46.:40:50.

is in charge? I think that what's happening is that the military are

:40:50.:40:56.

really actually trying to tighten their grip. It almost for them

:40:56.:41:01.

doesn't matter which candidate gets the presidency. What they are doing

:41:01.:41:04.

is they are threatening the committee that is set up to write

:41:04.:41:07.

the constitution, and they are talking about disbanding it and

:41:07.:41:10.

creating their own committee, that will write the constitution that

:41:10.:41:15.

they want. They have got a law in place that allows them to arrest

:41:15.:41:21.

people, to detain civilians off the street, they have now written in

:41:21.:41:25.

immunity for the military if they do that. I think that these are the

:41:25.:41:30.

things, the underpinnings of the power that they are now trying to

:41:30.:41:34.

establish on the streets, whichever candidate comes in. Are you

:41:34.:41:40.

surprised how calm low, sor far, most Egyptians have take -- calmly,

:41:40.:41:44.

so far, most Egyptians have taken this. There is economic problems,

:41:44.:41:48.

as we heard a moment ago. There is some demonstrations, everything

:41:48.:41:52.

seems to be relatively peaceful? Yes, I think why we don't have the

:41:52.:41:56.

result today, I think it is because it is Friday. If, for example, they

:41:56.:41:59.

were to announce that Shafiq is winning, something could happen.

:42:00.:42:05.

And I want, I'm cautiously optimistic, I'm not really

:42:05.:42:08.

optimistic, cautiously optimistic, hoping that what will happen in the

:42:08.:42:12.

near future is the people should not stop demonstrating, but the

:42:12.:42:17.

point is to avoid anything that has to do with violence. It has to be

:42:18.:42:21.

non-violent, resistance process, coming from the people, if we want

:42:21.:42:24.

to keep the spirit. At the end of the day what is happening now, we

:42:24.:42:27.

are too much looking at the political factors and forgetting

:42:27.:42:31.

the economic dimension of the whole process. Egypt is not Tunisia.

:42:31.:42:34.

Egypt is central to anything which is happening in the region. And

:42:34.:42:39.

when we speak about the army, we don't speak only about military

:42:39.:42:45.

force, we speak about economic power in the region. I think ...It

:42:45.:42:48.

Is plugged into that? Exactly we need the people and the Egyptians,

:42:48.:42:54.

it is good, what we have seen over the last weeks is people now

:42:54.:42:58.

committing to resist, but at the same time understanding they should

:42:58.:43:01.

eschew violence. But the army can push the people to go towards

:43:01.:43:05.

violence because it can help them. Exactly I think really when you say

:43:05.:43:09.

that the country is surprisingly calm, I hope it remains calm to an

:43:09.:43:14.

extent. My sense, our sense, is very much that people are being

:43:14.:43:21.

prodded towards violence wrecks get a lot of news about arms caches

:43:21.:43:25.

being found everywhere, the rumour mill is being used to scare and

:43:25.:43:29.

panic people. The army has played this devisive role for a long time

:43:29.:43:35.

In the past hour the credit ratings agency, Moody's, has downgraded its

:43:35.:43:41.

assessment of 15 of the world banks, including Barclays, HSBC and RBS.

:43:41.:43:46.

What have they been saying? Economics' journalists have had to

:43:47.:43:53.

sit through half an hour of alphabet spaghetti. The big banks

:43:53.:44:01.

are the big French banks and Canadian banks and our's. Bark

:44:01.:44:07.

close down two notches, HSBC down one, and RBS down one. What does it

:44:07.:44:09.

mean? The reason they are downgrading is the general

:44:09.:44:13.

situation in capital markets is getting more risky, they have to

:44:13.:44:20.

judge which banks are affected. The way to judge is it HSBC, a big

:44:20.:44:28.

global bank, and very rebust in this situation. RBS only held up in

:44:28.:44:32.

this situation because the Government implicitlys it. Barclays

:44:32.:44:36.

a bigger hit, exposed to the capital markets and a volatile

:44:36.:44:40.

situation. Not earning enough from other things. What we know today is

:44:40.:44:44.

that, it doesn't affect Joe Public on the high street, meetly. When we

:44:44.:44:49.

wake up tomorrow and look at what the markets are doing and how the

:44:49.:44:51.

eurozone is reacting, what difference will that make?

:44:52.:44:56.

general thing happening in the world is the general drift away

:44:56.:45:02.

from banks and Governments having triple-A ratings. There was one day

:45:02.:45:06.

where everybody had it, and it was suicidal if you lost it, now

:45:06.:45:12.

everyone is losing it. The banks were told they need 63 billion

:45:12.:45:16.

extra Uri rows to survive, we expect that pa -- euros to survive.

:45:17.:45:19.

As Governments move to support banks throughout the world, what

:45:19.:45:23.

markets think of them is less important what credit ratings

:45:23.:45:27.

agency think of them is usually one step behind markets. More on this

:45:27.:45:37.
:45:37.:45:54.

That's all tonight, I'm back with more tomorrow. We wanted to leave

:45:54.:46:01.

you with the Venezuelan conductor who led the Simon Bolivar orchestra

:46:01.:46:06.

in a housing estate in sterling tonight, as part of celebrations

:46:06.:46:08.

connected to the Olympics. Good night.

:46:08.:46:18.
:46:18.:46:18.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 41 seconds

:46:18.:46:59.

More downpours to come over the next 24 hours. Especially wet

:46:59.:47:04.

tonight across eastern Scotland, the rain slowly easing here, a

:47:04.:47:07.

gusty night across southern parts of England, blustery throughout the

:47:07.:47:11.

day on Friday. It stays very, very wet across North West England, here

:47:11.:47:14.

the Met Office have an amber warning in force. Downpours

:47:14.:47:18.

continuing through much of the day. A real risk of flooding here.

:47:18.:47:22.

Further south it looks brighter, there will be sunny spells, but a

:47:22.:47:25.

few showers. Those showers zipping through quickly on a strong wind.

:47:25.:47:29.

That wind means even if you get some sunshine t will not feel

:47:29.:47:33.

particularly warm. Dryer spells across south wells, but in North

:47:33.:47:36.

Wales again, persistent, at times heavy rain, for Northern Ireland

:47:37.:47:40.

and south-west Scotland, it looks very wet and that rain could build

:47:40.:47:44.

up through the day and maybe cause problems. For eastern Scotland it

:47:44.:47:48.

is very wet tonight. It will turn a bit dryer here during the course of

:47:48.:47:51.

Friday afternoon. There is more rain to come, particularly over

:47:51.:47:55.

northern Britain on Saturday. Cloudy with outbreaks of rain

:47:55.:47:57.

across northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The winds not

:47:57.:48:01.

as strong on Saturday, but they will still be a feature, perhaps a

:48:01.:48:05.

little bit dryer again across the south, and maybe even seeing a few

:48:05.:48:12.

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