Browse content similar to 12/07/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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The first London Olympic fiasco. With a fortnight to the games, a | :00:15. | :00:20. | |
private security firm confesses they can't cope. G4S has let the | :00:20. | :00:26. | |
country down, and we have literally had to send in the troops. We will | :00:26. | :00:31. | |
ask the expert what has gone wrong, and we will reveal that the company | :00:31. | :00:34. | |
in question has struggled to manage sporting events in the past. | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
have asked for a living wage in the public sector. As you know, I think | :00:38. | :00:42. | |
this is a good and attractive idea. Good intentions in opposition, but | :00:42. | :00:48. | |
now he's in power, we will discuss his dirty laundry in public, as the | :00:48. | :00:51. | |
people who clean up after ministers are still asking for a living wage. | :00:51. | :00:55. | |
Please, I need a help from them, I need more money from them. Do you | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
think they can afford it? Why not, yes. | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
And have a century after one of the most dramatic nights in British | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
politics, Michael Cockerell considers the parallels for the | :01:05. | :01:10. | |
Prime Minister, and the pasty tax. The older people get their pleasure, | :01:10. | :01:14. | |
and I think we should get our pleasures. Do you reckon you are | :01:14. | :01:20. | |
being got at? Yes. What about you, ice-cream a half penury more? | :01:20. | :01:30. | |
:01:30. | :01:34. | ||
think it is a dire bloody liberty. It can be disconcerting when you | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
see someone you don't expect. A word of warning, if you are lucky | :01:38. | :01:44. | |
enough to have a ticket for the Olympics, you might have your bag | :01:44. | :01:49. | |
search, or your Pepsi confis fated, not by a security guard but a | :01:49. | :01:53. | |
battle scarred squaddy. For the feel Olympic organisers and the | :01:54. | :02:01. | |
Home Office that is not all good, then. | :02:01. | :02:06. | |
It's supposed to be the nation's great global games, but it is being | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
protected by a private security firm now accused of letting Britain | :02:09. | :02:14. | |
down. And Newsnight has found that G4S has a track record of being | :02:14. | :02:20. | |
accused of falling short at show piece events. This morning's papers | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
were full of what was termed the farce of needing the army to bail | :02:23. | :02:28. | |
out the Olympics. In the Commons, Labour used their now familiar line | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
for Government failure. This really look like another huge Home Office | :02:34. | :02:37. | |
shambles. On Monday, the Home Secretary was asked specifically | :02:37. | :02:42. | |
about recruitment at G4S, and she said that the Home Office had put | :02:42. | :02:48. | |
in place a number of assurance processes to insure there is robust | :02:48. | :02:51. | |
security planning, we have been testing our plans authorisely and | :02:51. | :02:57. | |
are confident that our partners will -- thoroughly, and and are | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
confident in our partners, so confident two days later they | :03:01. | :03:08. | |
called in the troops. Theresa May said it was no shambles, but | :03:08. | :03:14. | |
acknowledged that the troubles from G4S had only just emerged. | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
received assurances from G4S until recently the gap in the numbers was | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
only crystalised yesterday. We have, as I said in my statement, | :03:22. | :03:25. | |
monitoring, taking place throughout the process of this contract, and | :03:25. | :03:29. | |
we have, obviously, been testing and challenging the assurances that | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
we have been receiving from G4S. week after chopping a great lump | :03:34. | :03:37. | |
off the military, the Government calls on a great chunk of the | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
military to save the day. One former army officer, now chairman | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
of an all-party security committee, told us, it had been obvious for | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
week, G4S wasn't up to the job. What I was concerned about was | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
there were a large number of people, there was a raw material, if that | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
is the right word to use, who were qualified to do the work, plane of | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
whom were already vetted, but -- many of whom were already vetted, | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
but the money offered was not enough to bring them forward in | :04:05. | :04:10. | |
numbers. First point. Secondly, there seemed to be overweaning | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
bureaucracy from the company to get the people signed up. So what you | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
are saying, from what we have heard, is G4S have bitten off more than | :04:17. | :04:22. | |
they can chew? I think they have got ambition mixed up with ability. | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
All day we have heard from people who bear that out. This man was | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
interviewed six months ago and been on a week's security course, but | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
still, no word. I'm sitting here, ready to go, ready to be a security | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
guard, and they are saying they don't have enough staff. They | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
haven't got the accreditation, I have asked them again and again, | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
please can I have a job, just get me the piece of patcher work and I | :04:46. | :04:52. | |
can do it, I'm -- paperwork, and I can do it. I'm ready to go. This is | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
an embarrassment for a company that bills itself as the world's largest | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
security firm. This is not the first time G4S has been ayes cuesed | :05:01. | :05:07. | |
of serious shortcomings around big sporting events. There was last | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
year's Wimbledon. Security is usually guaranteed by the low-key | :05:11. | :05:17. | |
presence of military personnel. But the entrance in and out of | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
Wimbledon is handled by G4S. It is this that gave rise to serious | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
criticism and an internal investigation by G4S after last | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
year's tournament. G4S confirmed the complaints had been included in | :05:29. | :05:39. | |
:05:39. | :05:45. | ||
So the military already heavily involved in bolstering security, | :05:45. | :05:51. | |
are now effectively shoring up the whole operation. Patrick Mercer | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
says it is a bitter pill. I have to say, that if you want a force, | :05:55. | :05:59. | |
where when you snap your fingers that it jumps to it and does the | :05:59. | :06:03. | |
job properly and capably, then you have to have enough men inside the | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
force to do it. My old regiment, for instance, has just been told | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
that they wopbtd be getting their - - won't be getting their post- | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
Afghanistan leave, and most men are coming to do Olympic security with | :06:17. | :06:22. | |
their P45 in their back pockets, because a battalion from that | :06:22. | :06:27. | |
regiment will be cut. That isn't good for morale. Two weeks from | :06:27. | :06:32. | |
tomorrow the games begin, there is great stress that security won't be | :06:32. | :06:37. | |
compromised. The chairman and chief executive of G4S, with hundreds of | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
millions of Government contracts, will be summoned to the Commons | :06:40. | :06:42. | |
next week to explain what has gone wrong. | :06:42. | :06:49. | |
We asked to speak to G4S, to LOCOG, to the Home Office and the Ministry | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
of Defence about the last-minute changes, no-one of made available. | :06:53. | :06:58. | |
We asked if they could send a soldier, and they hung up! Let's | :06:58. | :07:08. | |
:07:08. | :07:08. | ||
ask for Tessa Jowell, Lord Carlyle, the former head of the army, we | :07:08. | :07:14. | |
hope soon will join us. Is there not an argument for saying, there | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
may have been a problem, it has been sorted, let's get on with the | :07:17. | :07:22. | |
games? We should say that, and we enjoy the games. The fact it has | :07:22. | :07:29. | |
been sorted is no thanks to G4S, or robust contractual arrangements. | :07:29. | :07:34. | |
All the work that people like Dame Tessa have done to prepare what | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
will be a wonderful Olympic Games, are beginning to be affected by | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
this kind of criticism. I hope those who are guilty of the | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
failings will be called to account. This morning I heard on Radio 4 | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
countless e-mails being read out, from people who are actually | :07:49. | :07:54. | |
employed by G4S, who are not being told where to go, or what to do. | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
That is totally unacceptable. Thank heavens for the British services. | :08:00. | :08:05. | |
Tessa Jowell, would you buy a used car from G4S? They certainly | :08:05. | :08:11. | |
haven't emergeded from this well. I think that what happened -- | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
emergeded from this well. What happened is they went into a sort | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
of denial, not admitting to the scale of difficulty they were | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
having. In the scheduling of the people that they were recruiting, | :08:22. | :08:32. | |
hence these no-shows at a number of the venues. Have you heard whispers, | :08:32. | :08:38. | |
is it behind the scenes chatter? But I do think that, you know, all | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
these e-mails, and I think we have all been getting them today, from | :08:41. | :08:46. | |
people who have signed up to be considered as volunteers with G4S, | :08:46. | :08:51. | |
they should all be looked at. And in a way, what is needed now is a | :08:51. | :08:56. | |
very quick audit of G4S's performance and capability. I | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
absolutely agree with Lord Carlyle that the right thing is to bring | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
the army in, the soldiers in. I was out at the Olympic Park today. They | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
were being deployed around the place. Conducting themselves in a | :09:08. | :09:13. | |
very dignified and effective manner. I am not concerned that the games | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
won't be safe and secure. I think that we will get to that at the | :09:18. | :09:25. | |
opening ceremony, in two weeks time, by a route that we wouldn't have | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
wished. With this hiatus with G4S. This audit you are talking about, | :09:29. | :09:34. | |
what form should that take, how quickly should it happen and to | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
what end? At this stage it has to be very speedy. I think it is worth | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
getting a measure of the degree to which these claims about the poor | :09:42. | :09:47. | |
performance of G4S, by people who have been writing into media | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
outlets, and Members of Parliament and so forth, are tested against | :09:51. | :09:56. | |
the G4S systems. That can be done quickly now. But obviously, there | :09:56. | :10:01. | |
has to be a proper postmortem. I think that will have to be after | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
the games. My main concern now is that the solution is put in place. | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
I think the Government have come forward with that proposaled today. | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
We support that, and I think that puts -- proposal today, we support | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
that and I think that puts an end to it. | :10:17. | :10:23. | |
It seems yesterday and today a lot of people involved in the periphery, | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
the underlings works for G4S knew about the problems. The people | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
organising the games and the Home Office had no idea? Yes, of course | :10:30. | :10:36. | |
it is a matter of concern the fact that the company have been called | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
to a Select Committee next week will begin to provide answers to | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
those questions. At this point, at an Olympic Games, it is the most | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
complex and demanding logistical exercise in peacetime. And the | :10:50. | :10:55. | |
focus has to be knitting together, every single part of that complex | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
operation. That is why the Government's decision today is | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
right. I think we do need to know from LOCOG why they put so many | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
eggs in one basket. G4S are far from the only large security firm | :11:06. | :11:10. | |
in this country, there is a real question about the tendering | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
arrangements that were followed here. I hope the public are not | :11:13. | :11:21. | |
going to be made to pay for these mistakes. General Lord Dannett can | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
join us, could this have happened if the army was organising the | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
games from the start? That is a very broad question. It is worth | :11:28. | :11:34. | |
going back, if you have a moment to 2005, when London was first awarded | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
the games. I was the Commander-in- Chief, the land commander at the | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
time, we asked very politely of the Government what our role would be | :11:41. | :11:46. | |
in the games. We were told pretty unequivocally this would be a | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
civilian-run games and the military involvement would be pretty small. | :11:49. | :11:53. | |
As I have heard a comment made, about the biggest logistical demand | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
placed on a nation for a very long time. We have some experience in | :11:57. | :12:04. | |
doing that. So, it is unhelpful, Dame Tess was right to say let's | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
leave it until after the games to have a bit of an inquiry. The | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
important thing is to make sure we have a safe and successful games to | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
celebrate and be part of. The Armed Forces are hugely committed to it, | :12:18. | :12:25. | |
now 3,000 more are committeded, so be it. A bit disa-- are committed, | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
so be it. A bit disappointing for those who thought they were on | :12:29. | :12:32. | |
holiday, never mind, they will get on with it, we will make the games | :12:32. | :12:37. | |
very good. There are issues. I think the size of the task was | :12:37. | :12:42. | |
understatemented, and maybe it could have been -- underestimated, | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
and maybe it could have been done differently. That is for after the | :12:45. | :12:49. | |
games. Let's put our backs into the game, and the soldiers and airmen | :12:49. | :12:54. | |
will do that. We are looking forward to it. Who do you blame for | :12:54. | :13:00. | |
this problem? I'm not in the blame game F I'm absolutely honest, look | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
-- if I'm absolutely honest, looks at the games in Canada and | :13:04. | :13:08. | |
Australia, the games have always relied heavily on the military. It | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
would have been fairly obvious this would have come about at some stage. | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
It probably would have been better if it had come about sooner rather | :13:15. | :13:21. | |
than later. I can fully understand the desire to make these friendly | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
games, civilian-led games, with a soft face on it. 2005 was well | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
before the crash of 2008, all before a lot of things that have | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
happened. But, we are where we are now. And all I would say is, given | :13:34. | :13:38. | |
that we have got large number of soldiers, sailors and marines | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
involved in the games, I'm going to go as a punt Tory one evening in | :13:42. | :13:48. | |
the Olympic Park, as I'm -- punter to one evening in the park, as I'm | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
sure many people will be. When you see the soldier, airmen and marines | :13:52. | :13:55. | |
checking your bags, remember some of them could have been on leave, | :13:55. | :13:59. | |
say thank you to them for contributing to make this thing a | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
great success, which it will be. Thank you for dressing so smartly | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
for the programme and thank you. Tessa Jowell, it is not just this, | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
I hate to be gloomy here, and it is important to look ahead | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
optimistically to the games, but we have problems on the M4, one of the | :14:15. | :14:19. | |
main routes that athletes will be taking into London. That won't | :14:19. | :14:24. | |
reopen until Monday at the earliest. Reuben to go get thely bee geebies | :14:24. | :14:30. | |
about this? If you are involved with a project of this scale of | :14:30. | :14:37. | |
complexties you have that every day, you hope by having the heebeeje, | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
bies, and living in a state of preoccupied concern about it, you | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
get things right. The most important thing is to stay on top | :14:45. | :14:51. | |
of the detail. We are way beyond broad-brush ambition. What I hope | :14:51. | :14:56. | |
is in Downing Street there are regular meetings, pulling together | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
the contribution of the 19 Government departments, that those | :15:00. | :15:04. | |
meetings are held regularly and with discipline. Could be bra | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
should be meeting now -- Cobra should be meet now. In order to | :15:08. | :15:14. | |
address these kinds of issues, when they arise, to foresee those that | :15:14. | :15:19. | |
may emerge over the next few day. I guarantee there will be more | :15:19. | :15:26. | |
problems. Thank you very much. Think of it as Mrs Overall meets | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
Yes Minister. Last night across Whitehall, those two worlds | :15:29. | :15:33. | |
collided, in a most discreet way, that Sir Humphrey might approve of. | :15:33. | :15:37. | |
The people who clean for nine secretaries of state, clean the | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
ministerial desks, as usual, and then left behind a letter, asking | :15:40. | :15:47. | |
for more pay. When the Government's maxim is make work pay, are the | :15:47. | :15:51. | |
salaries of these night shift workers too low to make it so. | :15:51. | :16:01. | |
:16:01. | :16:03. | ||
Allegra Stratton investigates. It's a brave employee who asks | :16:03. | :16:06. | |
someone for a pay rise. It is even braver when that someone is a | :16:06. | :16:10. | |
Secretary of State. On Wednesday, across the sprawling | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
complex of Whitehall, the people who clean for nine secretaries of | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
state spruced up their ministers' desks and left behind a letter. A | :16:19. | :16:24. | |
letter asking for something called the living wage. At �8.30 it | :16:24. | :16:27. | |
recognises that life in London is dear. The politicians are not | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
obliged to pay this, but increasingly employers are doing it, | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
KPMG, aviva, the Mayor of London, and Whitehall's neighbour, | :16:36. | :16:46. | |
:16:46. | :16:47. | ||
parliament. Irene is about to deposit a letter, this time on the | :16:47. | :16:50. | |
Chancellor's desk. He will get it tomorrow morning, definitely. | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
are confident? Yes. How are you feeling about this? So good. | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
has been talked through it by the campaigner she works with from | :16:58. | :17:02. | |
London Citizens. It talks about some of the pressures you are under | :17:02. | :17:08. | |
in your job, how you were supposed to get a bonus, but if you turn up | :17:08. | :17:13. | |
late they cut it off. Irene is talking there about the wage paid | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
by her boss, the Treasury's cleaning contractor, they believe | :17:17. | :17:26. | |
it is generous, �7.80 an hour, pumped up to �8.30 with an | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
attendance allowance. She doesn't agree with that. Irene looks after | :17:29. | :17:37. | |
her mother, has five kids and nine grandchildren, she does two shifts, | :17:37. | :17:43. | |
one in Guy's Hosptial starting at 7.00 and another at night in | :17:43. | :17:49. | |
parliament. Letter in hand, she's heading into work. This Portuguese | :17:49. | :17:53. | |
ainggol lan father of two, has just handed in his letter, and is | :17:53. | :17:59. | |
heading home to his ten-year-old. I'm doing everything cleaning-wise, | :17:59. | :18:09. | |
:18:09. | :18:10. | ||
carpets, rubbish, dusting. Everything enside. It is not fair | :18:10. | :18:16. | |
to pay me �6.95, because I work so hard. He begins his day at 5.00am | :18:16. | :18:21. | |
in the Cabinet Office, where he cleans the Deputy Prime Minister's | :18:21. | :18:26. | |
rooms and also another minister's, that of Reggie Maudling. He then | :18:26. | :18:31. | |
turns in an extra -- Francis Maude, he puts in an extra shift at the | :18:31. | :18:34. | |
weekend in Downing Street, he's paid less than the national minimum | :18:34. | :18:38. | |
wage. It is dusk on Wednesday, and over the last 24 hours letters have | :18:38. | :18:42. | |
been placed on the decks of secretaries of state across | :18:42. | :18:46. | |
Whitehall, -- desks of secretaries of state, across Whitehall. The | :18:46. | :18:51. | |
Government's key welfare reform is being in work will play, now those | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
who -- pay, now those cleaning for the secretaries of state say it | :18:55. | :19:00. | |
does pay, but not enough. Irene confirms the deed is done. You put | :19:00. | :19:05. | |
the letter in? Yes I did. Did you get any grief? No. It is sitting | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
there, ready for him in the morning. Yes. What did your friend or | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
colleagues say? They are cool, everybody is happy. | :19:14. | :19:21. | |
It might seem part of a campaign hopelessly out of place in an page | :19:21. | :19:25. | |
of austerity, Irene and seven fellow letter leavers and countless | :19:25. | :19:28. | |
other cleaners, among the six million people on salaries less | :19:28. | :19:31. | |
than the minimum wage, believe they are pushing at an open-door. | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
have asked for a living wage in the public sector. As you know, I think | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
this is a good and attractive idea. Government, afterall, is the | :19:40. | :19:45. | |
biggest employer in the country, where it leads others will follow, | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
and fairness could begin to be hard wired into the pay scales up and | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
down the country. It was Boris Johnson who implemented the living | :19:54. | :19:57. | |
wage, throughout the Greater London Authority. That was David Cameron | :19:57. | :20:02. | |
during the 2010 general election. Since, Whitehall has made little | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
progress. Irene's department, the Treasury, has made the most stren | :20:06. | :20:09. | |
strenuous attempt, though she doesn't believe -- strenuous | :20:09. | :20:12. | |
attempt, though she doesn't believe it is enough. In April this year, | :20:13. | :20:18. | |
64 cleaners put a letter on the desk of the Work and Pensions | :20:18. | :20:25. | |
Secretary, over an hourly rate 3p over the minimum. Afterwards he | :20:25. | :20:35. | |
:20:35. | :20:44. | ||
told others that he was sympathetic, Despite Duncan Smith's recent | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
commitment the Government would find a solution, a Government | :20:48. | :20:58. | |
:20:58. | :21:15. | ||
find a solution, a Government With all letters deposited, | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
campaigners assembled to hand out flyers to civil servants, they | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
gathered in the building, where before the 2010 election, David | :21:22. | :21:26. | |
Cameron raised the question of a -- the prospect of a living wage. Two | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
years later it remain as tussle that pits Boris Johnson and Duncan | :21:31. | :21:37. | |
Smith against others in the party. In the meantime it is cheek by jowl | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
with the policy makers, the cleaners at the corridors of power. | :21:41. | :21:51. | |
:21:51. | :21:51. | ||
Let's talk more about the living wage with our guests now. | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
What would you say to Irene and others in that report who want a | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
living wage? Everybody wants a living wage. Clearly, and I'm all | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
in favour of employees going to their employers and asking for | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
higher salaries. Turning you were and saying I think I'm more | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
productive than you're paying me for, put my salary up. Of course | :22:12. | :22:16. | |
that should apply between cleaning staff and skaegts, it applies right | :22:16. | :22:21. | |
across the economy. I don't find -- skaegts, it applies right across | :22:21. | :22:29. | |
the economy. I don't find the herp "living wage" helpful. You would | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
earn more than the living wage? in the top 5% of earners, much more | :22:33. | :22:38. | |
than the living wage. Let as say my wife was earning �5,000 a year, | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
that would be technically below the living wage, but added to my income. | :22:42. | :22:47. | |
There are horses for courses. Bringing up a family on a cleaner's | :22:47. | :22:51. | |
wage, that is very difficult. If it is an add-on to partner earning a | :22:51. | :22:55. | |
decent sum of money, it less important that is a living wage. | :22:55. | :22:59. | |
you have a cleaning job and no family, and visa versa? I wouldn't | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
say that. That is what you mean? That is absolutely not what I mean. | :23:03. | :23:06. | |
I think people need to make their own decisions with their own | :23:06. | :23:09. | |
finances. I think it is perfectly reasonable for cleaning staff and | :23:09. | :23:14. | |
all other staff in the country to lobby their employers for higher | :23:15. | :23:20. | |
increases. My slight concern is here that we seem to have taxpayer- | :23:20. | :23:26. | |
funded campaign, looking at take pair funded cleaning staff, talking | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
to taxpayer funded politicians about their overall salary. No | :23:29. | :23:33. | |
wonder as a taxpayer I face a higher tax bill. What do you say to | :23:34. | :23:38. | |
the argument that which heard put forward in the statement in the | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
report, that a living wage could take people out of work? Before I | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
start, can I just pay tribute to the hard working cleaners who | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
appeared in that video. These are mums and dad who is have two and | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
sometimes three jobs. The step they took to leave the letters on the | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
desks today, these are voices not always heard. They are out for a | :24:00. | :24:04. | |
living wage, and I believe their struggle is possible. In response | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
to the comment from the Cabinet Office, we are not arguing for a | :24:08. | :24:10. | |
change to the statutory minimum wage. We are arguing that employers | :24:10. | :24:16. | |
who want to do the right thing, like the mayor, Aviva and KPMG, can | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
do better than the minimum, and make sure people don't have to work | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
two and three jobs and can look after their families. What about | :24:23. | :24:28. | |
employers who cannot can I Ford the living wage? Our plan is not, that | :24:28. | :24:32. | |
we are approaching the Government. Oh Government can afford it? They | :24:32. | :24:36. | |
can for two reasons, it is a comparatively smaller budget, there | :24:36. | :24:40. | |
are 2,000 cleaners white happen. But moving to the living wage saves | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
money on tax-payers for tax credits, when the private sector companies | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
move to the living wage, they are taking some of the responsibility | :24:46. | :24:50. | |
for low pay away from the taxpayer, and moving the burden back on to | :24:50. | :24:53. | |
the employer. We are saving in the long run? | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
are not saving money in the long run. My concern here sfpbt so much | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
for the people in the work force. - - isn't so much for those people in | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
the work force. There are those just scratching a living. My | :25:06. | :25:11. | |
concern is for b the people who can't enter -- those people who | :25:11. | :25:14. | |
can't enter the work force, they are priced out of the market. That | :25:14. | :25:21. | |
is my concern. If we are going to have a situation where cleaners in | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
Whitehall are paid �8 plus an hour, at the expense of the tax-payers, | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
when private businesses, like the one I run, could afford nowhere | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
near that. I'm afraid we are pricing people out of the labour | :25:33. | :25:36. | |
market. That is why we have a million people unemployed in it | :25:36. | :25:40. | |
country. We are not getting them the first step on the ladder. | :25:40. | :25:47. | |
are not forcing any business to pay the minimum wage. It is a voluntary | :25:47. | :25:51. | |
idea. David Cameron says it is an idea whose time has come and Boris | :25:51. | :25:58. | |
Johnson is putting it across the capital. These are massive | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
companies. If David Cameron in that clip said, where the Government | :26:01. | :26:05. | |
lead, others will follow. If the Government lead and pay the living | :26:05. | :26:09. | |
wage, more private sector employ ys will go to living wage, and the | :26:09. | :26:13. | |
taxpayer would save money and Kleiners more in their pockets. | :26:13. | :26:18. | |
would -- Cleaners more in their pockets. You would do away with the | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
minimum wage wouldn't you, how low is too low? It is difficult to say. | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
Difficult for embarrassing? last people I want to judge are | :26:26. | :26:30. | |
politician, they almost certainly get thisth wrong, they set the | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
minimum wage. If an employer wants to pay �1 an hour and somebody | :26:33. | :26:37. | |
wants to work for that, is that all right? Yes, people do voluntary | :26:37. | :26:43. | |
work, is that all right? A lot of people work in Oxfam shops for zero | :26:43. | :26:49. | |
pounds an hour, are we banning that. Is voluntary work OK? At the | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
present rate you are crowding out small businesses from taking the | :26:52. | :26:59. | |
lead. The Met Office is wary of forecasting more than a fortnight | :26:59. | :27:04. | |
ahead, astrologers might predict a year with some degree of certainty. | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
You have to admire the people at the Office for Budget | :27:07. | :27:09. | |
Responsibility, who stepped forward today with figures for the state of | :27:09. | :27:15. | |
the British economy, 50 years from now. You will find in their report | :27:15. | :27:21. | |
the predicted budget deficit for 2051, 52, will they ever be | :27:21. | :27:31. | |
:27:31. | :27:34. | ||
realised. What lies just grond beyond visible. One of the jobs of | :27:34. | :27:40. | |
the -- beyond visible, one of the jobs of the office for budget | :27:40. | :27:46. | |
responsibility is to keep a look out for long-term trends. | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
Troiing to gaze far into the distant future -- trying to gaze | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
into the far distant future is always difficult, just ask the Met | :27:54. | :27:58. | |
Office. The OBR have a difficult job, they can only factor in known | :27:58. | :28:02. | |
unknowns, everything else, well it is not in the model. Even so, there | :28:02. | :28:08. | |
is plenty there to worry us. For a start, the population is | :28:08. | :28:14. | |
ageing. Over 65s currently make up 17% of the population. In 50 years | :28:14. | :28:19. | |
time they will be 26%. That means health spending, state pension | :28:19. | :28:26. | |
costs, and social care costs are all heading north. | :28:26. | :28:36. | |
:28:36. | :28:40. | ||
These figures show that the reform that is we made, the very | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
controversial reforms we made to public service pension, are not | :28:44. | :28:47. | |
just delivering continued good quality pension force public sector | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
workers, but benefit to the taxpayer, reducing the cost to the | :28:51. | :28:56. | |
taxpayer by 40% over the next few years, that is worth �440 billion | :28:56. | :29:03. | |
worth of savings over the 50 years. These predictions are far beyond | :29:03. | :29:07. | |
the event horizon of normal politics. But Labour says it is | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
never too soon to get on the right track. People look at the | :29:11. | :29:14. | |
statistics and say in this financial quarter, does it matter | :29:14. | :29:19. | |
that you have shrunk an economy by 0.4%, but cumulatively, if those | :29:19. | :29:24. | |
add up, and we end up with the double-dip recession going on for a | :29:25. | :29:28. | |
long period. That is a serious hit to the capacity as a economy to | :29:28. | :29:32. | |
afford those decent services. The Chancellor has to wake up and | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
realise, unless he does something now about jobs and growth, we will | :29:36. | :29:38. | |
lose out as a society as a whole in the long-term. | :29:38. | :29:43. | |
The other side of the balance sheet is pretty worrying too in as much | :29:43. | :29:45. | |
as you can get worried about something that may or may not | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
happen in half a century's time. Not only is spending set to rise, | :29:50. | :29:56. | |
the OBR predicts that tax revenues will slide. For a start, transport | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
taxes will fall, as cars become more fuel efficient. And North Sea | :30:01. | :30:08. | |
oil revenues will dwindle. Total revenues will be down 2% by 2061. | :30:08. | :30:15. | |
That loaves a fiscal gap of �66 billion. Does that mean more cuts | :30:15. | :30:25. | |
even now? No, the report should not be taken to apply to the | :30:25. | :30:27. | |
substantial fiscal consolidation in the pipeline should be made bigger. | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
The question for the politicians is where should that money come from, | :30:31. | :30:35. | |
over the long-term? If you look back over the last 50 years or so, | :30:35. | :30:38. | |
what you see is some of the at the same time things you might see | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
again over 50 years. The cost of health has risen a great deal. | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
Interesting to look at what has paid for that? We have cut spending | :30:46. | :30:52. | |
on defence very dramatically. We have cut spending on housing | :30:52. | :30:55. | |
dramatically, and support for industry almost down to nothing. | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
Those budgets don't exist any more, that is the interesting challenge | :30:59. | :31:03. | |
for what we do in the future. We have kind of chopped all the | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
budgets which have been used to fund social security and health. | :31:06. | :31:12. | |
What budgets will we chop next? The prediction business is a tough | :31:12. | :31:15. | |
gig. Who would have thought, for example, that a group of musicians | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
who played their first performance 50 years ago tonight would still be | :31:19. | :31:23. | |
around today. What will life be back in 2061. | :31:23. | :31:29. | |
Let's leave the last word on the dangers of forecasting to Keith. | :31:29. | :31:36. | |
I'm lucky to be here, man. It is amazing. Earlier I spoke to the | :31:36. | :31:40. | |
chairman of the Office of Budget Responsibility, Robert Chote. How | :31:40. | :31:45. | |
confident are you about your forecasting? Needless to say, over | :31:45. | :31:50. | |
a 50-year horizon, there are colossal uncertainties around lots | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
of these projections. It is difficult, but it is not to throw | :31:54. | :31:58. | |
up our hands and say not to do it at all. Rather than with weather | :31:58. | :32:01. | |
forecasting, the challenge is knowing whether it will be hotter | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
today than in ten days time, it is difficult to ask the question over | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
50 years. Both difficult but for different reasons. For 50 years | :32:09. | :32:14. | |
forecasting, we might ask an astrologer for that, might we? | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
There are different drivers in the changes in public finances over | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
that time arising and worrying about where they will go in five | :32:21. | :32:28. | |
years. For things like the movement of demographic bulge, flu the age- | :32:28. | :32:33. | |
distribution of the -- through the age-distribution of the population. | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
It is worth thinking about the potential implications of that, | :32:37. | :32:40. | |
even if there are huge uncertainties about where we will | :32:40. | :32:44. | |
be in five months or years time. you look at the short-term, two | :32:44. | :32:49. | |
years ago you were predicting growth of 2% plus in 2012 we are | :32:49. | :32:54. | |
nowhere near that. The growth predictions were wrong in 2010 in | :32:54. | :32:59. | |
October, you were overoptimistic about rebalancing the economy to | :32:59. | :33:04. | |
exports, and overmisting on the out put gap. It is no wonder the people | :33:04. | :33:10. | |
on the Treasury Select Committee were asking what the point of the | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
OBR is? You are always in the situation where people because they | :33:15. | :33:20. | |
didn't work out the last time, will then challenge you. That is the job | :33:20. | :33:23. | |
we are tasked with, if the Government trying to set policies | :33:23. | :33:29. | |
that have a lagged effect on how the policies and public achanges | :33:29. | :33:33. | |
will perform. You have to take that judging as best you can where | :33:33. | :33:37. | |
things will go in the future. One of the additional things is you are | :33:37. | :33:40. | |
not even confident about where things have been in the past. | :33:40. | :33:44. | |
are back to the astrology question, aren't we. What do you think when | :33:44. | :33:52. | |
you get the forecast wrong? I think you look at them and say what do we | :33:52. | :33:56. | |
learn from why this is gone wrong. Do you get better at it? You get | :33:56. | :34:04. | |
better at understanding why things have changed. Do you know what your | :34:04. | :34:09. | |
hit rate is? We have only been in existence for a couple of years. | :34:09. | :34:15. | |
The errors on our forecasts for the public finances are lail smaller | :34:15. | :34:20. | |
than the errors when done by somebody else. I wouldn't rest an | :34:20. | :34:25. | |
enormous amount on that. You need to judge these things over a longer | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
time arising. As you have emphasiseded you are marvellously | :34:29. | :34:31. | |
independent from Government, but David Ruffley questioning you last | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
year, complaining that you got the forecast wrong, said this was | :34:36. | :34:40. | |
serious, as the Chancellor's reputation is riding on how good | :34:40. | :34:43. | |
your forecasting is. Are you conscious of that, and do you | :34:43. | :34:46. | |
believe it is true? I think the Chancellor, if he's sensible, is | :34:46. | :34:51. | |
going to say. If he's sensible? Chancellor will sensibly look at | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
the forecasts and say this is the best view they have. But we know | :34:55. | :35:02. | |
that forecasts are uncertain. is your thinking on if now? That is | :35:02. | :35:08. | |
outside our remit in terms of where we are doing forecasting for this. | :35:08. | :35:13. | |
You can do a forecast for Newsnight, a Robert Chote forecast? I could do, | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
but I'm not going to. I think we have to watch and see | :35:17. | :35:23. | |
how this is going to evolve by the time we do our next short-to-medium | :35:23. | :35:28. | |
term forecast, which will accompany the Chancellor's Autumn Statement. | :35:28. | :35:33. | |
He as an Aquarius by the way, they are unpredictable, apparently. | :35:33. | :35:36. | |
The good news for David Cameron, is he isn't the first Conservative | :35:36. | :35:40. | |
Prime Minister to find himself in a bit of an economic pacemakerle. The | :35:40. | :35:46. | |
bad news for today's -- pickle. The bad news for today's cabinet, is | :35:46. | :35:51. | |
were David Cameron to follow one of his hero, ministers would be out of | :35:51. | :36:01. | |
the job. Harold Macmillan took an axe to seven of his cabinet, in the | :36:01. | :36:07. | |
now famous Night of the Long Knives. This is Michael's take on what we | :36:07. | :36:12. | |
can learn from the events of 1962. The political scene in July, 50 | :36:12. | :36:16. | |
years ago, has a familiar look today. Harold Macmillan, the Eton | :36:16. | :36:20. | |
and Oxford-educateded Prime Minister, like his modern-day | :36:20. | :36:25. | |
counterpart, was accused of presiding over a dysfuntional | :36:25. | :36:30. | |
Government that performed a series of U-turns. Both men's troubles | :36:30. | :36:33. | |
begun earlier in the year in a controversial budget that had | :36:33. | :36:39. | |
brought in a tax on unpopular snacks. When was the last time you | :36:39. | :36:47. | |
bought a pasty in Greggs. pastygate 2012, children's sweets | :36:47. | :36:54. | |
and ice-creamgate, 1962? What does it mean, it is threatening the ice- | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
cream? It is not fair the older people get their pleasure, we | :36:57. | :37:03. | |
should get our pleasures. reckon you are being got at? Yes. | :37:03. | :37:10. | |
What but, ice-cream, a half penny more? I think it is a dire bloody | :37:10. | :37:14. | |
liberty. Harold Macmillan decided something dramatic had to be done | :37:14. | :37:19. | |
to restore his Government's fortunes. Exactly 50 years ago, | :37:19. | :37:26. | |
this building, Admiralty House, was the setting for the Night of the | :37:26. | :37:30. | |
Long Knives. On Friday, in July, 196 it r 2, the Prime Minister | :37:30. | :37:33. | |
sacked a third of his cabinet, clulding the Chancellor of the | :37:33. | :37:37. | |
Exchequer, in an unprecedented act -- including the Chancellor of the | :37:37. | :37:41. | |
Exchequer, in an unprecedented act of political butchery. I have | :37:41. | :37:45. | |
always been fascinated by the story, tonight I will be drawing own the | :37:45. | :37:50. | |
film I made some years back, when I talk to some of the key figures | :37:50. | :37:53. | |
from that notorious night. Very few of whom are still alive. I have | :37:54. | :37:57. | |
come to Admiralty House, which was the home of the Prime Minister, | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
because Number Ten was being rebuilt. To reassess the drama and | :38:01. | :38:06. | |
join the lessons fored today the Prime Minister, the fan of Harold | :38:06. | :38:16. | |
:38:16. | :38:20. | ||
Macmillan. The Orpington by- election, where the liberal won the | :38:20. | :38:25. | |
solid Tory seat, was the first of the body blows for Macmillan, they | :38:25. | :38:28. | |
had introduced austerity policies to revive the economy, but they ran | :38:28. | :38:33. | |
into the rocks. Macmillan, previously known as Super Mac, | :38:33. | :38:38. | |
feared for his own political survival. One of his most serious | :38:38. | :38:41. | |
colleagues, Lord Hailsham, left Admiralty House, after delivering a | :38:41. | :38:46. | |
blunt message to the Prime Minister. I did feel very strongly that he | :38:46. | :38:49. | |
was losing his grip a bit on public opinion and the party in general. | :38:50. | :38:56. | |
People were, all of us were, extremely concerned about the | :38:57. | :38:59. | |
continued failure of Government poll iscy in one field after | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
another. -- policy in one field after | :39:03. | :39:07. | |
another. We brought Harold Macmillan's grandson, Lord Stockton, | :39:07. | :39:12. | |
back to Admiralty House, where as a youngman he had seen -- young man | :39:12. | :39:17. | |
he had seen how his father faced up to the sea of trouble, that began | :39:17. | :39:21. | |
with the ice-cream tax? grandfather didn't eat any of those | :39:21. | :39:24. | |
things. But he became very conscious, because all of his | :39:24. | :39:32. | |
grandchildren complained like mad. Particularly my cousin Anne, rather | :39:32. | :39:37. | |
fond of an ice-cream or two. I think he was conscious, if you like, | :39:37. | :39:41. | |
his, up till then, his magical grasp on the thing, had begun to | :39:41. | :39:49. | |
slip. He was losing his grip, in a sense. We were obviously in for a | :39:49. | :39:54. | |
reshuffle. To give the Government a fresh look, Macmillan decided to | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
start his reshuffle, by getting rid of his Chancellor, Selwyn Lloyd. | :39:58. | :40:02. | |
The two men had long been the closest of political allies. Indeed | :40:02. | :40:06. | |
Macmillan who had his own country house, had let Selwyn Lloyd live at | :40:06. | :40:11. | |
Chequers with his dogs. The young Jonathan Aitken, later notorious, | :40:11. | :40:16. | |
was a firsthand witness to the Night of the Long Knives, as the | :40:16. | :40:19. | |
work experience special adviser to Selwyn Lloyd. The only reason I | :40:19. | :40:26. | |
ended up with such an interesting job was pure nepotisim. Selwyn | :40:26. | :40:30. | |
Lloyd was my Godfather. He loved Chequers, he was there virtually | :40:30. | :40:38. | |
every weekend, thanks to Macmillan's generosity. He took his | :40:39. | :40:44. | |
dog, a great feature of Chequers weekends. Selwyn Lloyd was | :40:44. | :40:49. | |
blissfully ignorant of Macmillan's intention to replace him in a big | :40:49. | :40:53. | |
cabinet shake-up. Which he planned with his deputy, Rab Butler, his | :40:53. | :40:58. | |
long time rival. The essence of a reshuffle is surprise, but Butler | :40:58. | :41:02. | |
leaked the plans to the Mail. And Macmillan became convinced it was a | :41:03. | :41:09. | |
plot to unseat him, by Butler. grandfather didn't ever trust Rab | :41:09. | :41:14. | |
Butler, he was always a bit suspicious of him. Rab was someone | :41:14. | :41:17. | |
who liked to play both sides of the fence, if he could. He certainly | :41:17. | :41:21. | |
wouldn't have gone into my grandfather in this room or any | :41:21. | :41:28. | |
other room, and said, Harold, the game has come for you to go. | :41:28. | :41:33. | |
Last night he lost control of his party. Macmillan was facing a rob | :41:33. | :41:39. | |
blem familiar with Cameron today, party dis-- problem familiar with | :41:39. | :41:42. | |
Cameron today, party disloyalty. There were call from MPs for the | :41:42. | :41:45. | |
Prime Minister to reassert his political authority over his | :41:45. | :41:51. | |
cabinet. After the Mail leak, Macmillan felt he had to move fast | :41:51. | :41:56. | |
and implemented the reshuffle quick low, otherwise he would look weak. | :41:56. | :42:01. | |
Selwyn Lloyd was summoned to Admiralty House to be told he had | :42:01. | :42:07. | |
had become an unperson? The picture I got was a very upset Macmillan, a | :42:07. | :42:11. | |
rather more upset Macmillan than Selwyn Lloyd, though obviously he | :42:11. | :42:15. | |
was very upset at losing his job. And the whole thing being a kind of | :42:16. | :42:21. | |
rather botched affair. Grandfather was an actor, a supreme actor n | :42:21. | :42:26. | |
many ways. He probably would have genuinely shed a tear for what he | :42:26. | :42:34. | |
was doing for an old friend that he admired in many ways. | :42:34. | :42:42. | |
There would have been a lot of aspects to those tears. I didn't | :42:42. | :42:49. | |
want to upset and replace him. I thought that in the thing we were | :42:49. | :42:52. | |
moving into, the thing I might call the new economic situation, which | :42:52. | :42:57. | |
we have been discussing. We wanted a less tired mind. | :42:57. | :43:02. | |
I felt he was not creative any more. I think he said he thought I was | :43:02. | :43:06. | |
tired out. I personally didn't feel at all tired. I thought things were | :43:06. | :43:11. | |
going rather well. After Macmillan had forced the Chancellor to walk | :43:11. | :43:17. | |
the plank, a further six cabinet ministers met a watery end at | :43:17. | :43:25. | |
Admiralty House. The heads of the ex-ministers were soon removed from | :43:25. | :43:29. | |
Madame Tussauds. Macmillan said it was him who felt the pain? It was | :43:29. | :43:33. | |
the heart burning of these changes, comes from the man who has to make | :43:33. | :43:37. | |
them. It is not your favourite moment, being resented by the | :43:37. | :43:43. | |
victim, who is not deeply resented by those who would help to take his | :43:43. | :43:49. | |
place. A week after the Night of the Long Knives, Macmillan went | :43:49. | :43:53. | |
from Admiralty *House to an away day with the captain of Chequers, | :43:53. | :43:58. | |
where Selwyn Lloyd had left his black Labrador to be looked after | :43:58. | :44:06. | |
the staff. When the members stood for an informal photo they were | :44:06. | :44:14. | |
left with a dog with an a name. started sniffing around the | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
trousers and whining, everybody started to feel embarrassed as this | :44:18. | :44:24. | |
dog was so obviously unhappy at his missing master. Macmillan effected | :44:24. | :44:29. | |
to ignore the dog, but for the Prime Minister, whom the sat | :44:29. | :44:36. | |
teirists had Chrisened "superMacbeth". Macmillan never | :44:36. | :44:44. | |
recovered his political authority. 50 years on, the latest Tory Prime | :44:44. | :44:48. | |
Minister is contemplating his reshuffle with the Government in | :44:48. | :44:54. | |
turmoil. The key lesson to draw from the events at Admiralty House, | :44:54. | :44:58. | |
the more you are going to knife in a single night, the more the public | :44:58. | :45:08. | |
:45:08. | :45:37. | ||
Before we go, the BBC Wormed *Service made his final -- BBC | :45:37. | :45:42. | |
World Service its final broadcast today. The corridors empty and the | :45:42. | :45:46. |