18/07/2012 Newsnight


18/07/2012

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Gavin Esler.


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Tonight, a bomb at the heart of the Syrian regime, the President's

:00:13.:00:18.

brother-in-law and two close advisers dead. Is this a turning

:00:18.:00:22.

point in the conflict to overthrow President Assad? With Government

:00:22.:00:27.

troops on the streets of Damascus, the Obama regime claims the regime

:00:27.:00:31.

is losing control. There is democratic gridlock at the United

:00:31.:00:34.

Nations. We will hear from the Foreign Office what they think

:00:34.:00:37.

happened today and should happen next.

:00:37.:00:40.

In an exclusive Newsnight interview, former President, Bill Clinton, on

:00:40.:00:45.

a trip to Africa, talks about Nelson Mandela intervening in Syria

:00:45.:00:49.

and weather his wife might still run, dr whether his wife might

:00:49.:00:53.

still run for the presidency in 2016. That is a long way away, and

:00:53.:00:56.

we are not kids away, and there are a lot of people who want to be

:00:56.:01:03.

President, and a lot of things that could happen between now and then.

:01:03.:01:08.

Unemployment drops for the fourth month running.

:01:09.:01:13.

Defiantly people are clinging on to their jobs, flouting the rules of

:01:14.:01:18.

the depression. What is going on. The British music industry turns

:01:18.:01:23.

its fire on Google over on-line firecy, but illegal downloading is

:01:23.:01:27.

not going away, even the bands don't know what to think. I should

:01:27.:01:33.

feel terrible, right? But, I can't really lie and say that I don't

:01:33.:01:43.
:01:43.:01:43.

really feel that bad about it. At first the Syrian state media

:01:43.:01:47.

called it saw side bomb, then changed the story to a terrorist

:01:47.:01:51.

attack. Then the rumour mill hit top gear, with stories of panic and

:01:51.:01:55.

anger right at the top of Bashar Al-Assad's regime. Whatever really

:01:55.:01:59.

happened in Damascus today, it appears a bomb killed at least

:01:59.:02:04.

three of the Government's top people attending a meeting of

:02:04.:02:07.

security chiefs. One President Assad's brother-in-law. Britain

:02:07.:02:11.

condemned the attack, and then confirmed the need for the United

:02:11.:02:18.

Nations to take action. We try to make sense of fact, rumour and

:02:18.:02:21.

propaganda. Killed or wounded in a single blast,

:02:21.:02:24.

some of the men closest to President Assad, including his own

:02:24.:02:28.

brother-in-law, the men responsible for putting down the uprising. It

:02:28.:02:33.

is a body-blow to the Syrian regime. They have been confering in the

:02:33.:02:37.

heart of dam kas cuss, at the national security headquarters.

:02:37.:02:42.

Afterwards, as journalists arrived on the scene, security seemed very

:02:42.:02:46.

low-key, which raises questions of what really happened. No pictures

:02:46.:02:51.

have emerged yet of the scene of the explosion or the victims. Was

:02:51.:02:55.

the perpetrator a suicide bomber, or a Government bodyguard working

:02:55.:03:00.

secretly for the rebels as other sources suggest. Sow little is

:03:00.:03:05.

known about the attack, and the regime inpenetrable, that rumours

:03:05.:03:13.

have been flying around Dammer mass cuss, was it to cover the fact that

:03:13.:03:16.

the brother-in-law was already dead, of the Defence Minister killed

:03:16.:03:20.

because he was plotting a coup. There is no evidence for any of

:03:20.:03:24.

this. The truth is probably sim letter, but no less dramatic, that

:03:24.:03:30.

this was an audacious coup by the rebels, for which the state of

:03:30.:03:34.

wholly unprepared. The fact there is no footage indicates they were

:03:34.:03:37.

completely taken aback, they had no idea something like this was coming.

:03:37.:03:41.

It also shows, the purpose of today as attack, of not to overthrow the

:03:41.:03:46.

Government in one go, it was to sow fear and paranoia within the inner

:03:46.:03:49.

circle, the surviving members of the Al-Assad regime, to show them

:03:49.:03:52.

how close the rebels can come. Those killed were the Defence

:03:52.:03:55.

Minister, Daoud Rajiha, thought to be one of the few Christian

:03:55.:04:00.

officials in the regime, a former Defence Minister, General Hassan

:04:00.:04:04.

Turkomani, who headed the President's crisis-management

:04:04.:04:11.

office, and most importantly, the shadowy figure of Asssef Shawkat,

:04:11.:04:18.

married to the President's sister. He's seen as the overseer of the

:04:18.:04:22.

security forces office, they are extremely sophisticated and feared.

:04:22.:04:28.

He's also the liaison between Damascus and Hezbollah. This

:04:28.:04:33.

Government is not despairing though. The Government don't depend on a

:04:33.:04:39.

few five or, six guys, they are a very large Government, and a

:04:39.:04:44.

regional player. There is some gunmen, and some called Free Syrian

:04:44.:04:52.

Army on the ground. I believe the army will deal with them, they did

:04:52.:04:59.

deal with Homs, Douma and all these areas. Today state television

:05:00.:05:04.

showed soldiers shooting in the streets of Damascus. Today the

:05:04.:05:08.

fighting has come ever closer to the city. The pressure is on

:05:08.:05:12.

outside powers to find a diplomatic solution. All of the concerns we

:05:12.:05:17.

have expressed about the need for Al-Assad to step down, the need for

:05:17.:05:26.

a peaceful transition, the need to achieve a peaceful solution to that

:05:26.:05:31.

situation. By ignoring those appeals, by the international

:05:31.:05:35.

community, that the violence there has only gotten worse and the loss

:05:35.:05:41.

of lives is only increased. That tells us that this is a

:05:41.:05:45.

situation that is rapidly spinning out of control. Tonight, the UN

:05:45.:05:50.

Security Council delayed voting on a new resolution on Syria, with

:05:50.:05:53.

Russia still opposing western demands for further sanctions

:05:53.:05:59.

against the regime. Meanwhile, in a partly rebel held

:05:59.:06:03.

north of Syria, people celebrated today at the news of the

:06:03.:06:07.

assassinations in Damascus. But is this really the turning point they

:06:07.:06:11.

hope for? The beginning of the end game for Assad? It could take weeks

:06:11.:06:18.

or months or a year. There are a lot of toys at Bashar Al-Assad's

:06:18.:06:21.

disposal, he hasn't deployed fighter jets against his population.

:06:21.:06:26.

We heard last week, according to American estimate, chemical

:06:26.:06:29.

stockpiles are being moved around the country. There is a lot more

:06:29.:06:34.

damage this man can do before the regime falls. The Government won't

:06:34.:06:37.

fall in Syria, because it has a strength. There is a support, there

:06:38.:06:45.

is a lot of support of the Syrians, you know. There is also the support

:06:45.:06:51.

of 2.8 million of the Ba'ath Party members. 1.4 million of them in

:06:51.:06:58.

Damascus, and the Ba'ath Party, as you know, they used to be the only

:06:58.:07:02.

ruling party, and the ruling party in Syria. Today, judging by

:07:02.:07:07.

unverified video from rebels, clashes were continuing in Damascus.

:07:07.:07:11.

Psychologically, the regime's suffered a major defeat. But

:07:11.:07:15.

militarily, and politically, it is not finished yet.

:07:15.:07:22.

In a moment we will hear from Alistair Burke, the Foreign Office

:07:22.:07:25.

minister. But first our guest in Washington.

:07:25.:07:28.

What are you hearing about who was responsible for this attack, and

:07:28.:07:37.

how did they carry it out? course it is the Free Syrian Army

:07:37.:07:45.

who carried out the attack. Forces from the Damascus suburbs carried

:07:45.:07:49.

out the attack. It has been planned for some time. The whole operation

:07:49.:07:54.

has been well-planned for over two months now. In order to use the

:07:54.:07:59.

time before Ramadan, and the holy month of Muslim, it starts on July

:07:59.:08:08.

20th, we do expect that more intense clash, and targets to be

:08:08.:08:12.

targeted between now and July 20th or 25th, a lot depends on the

:08:12.:08:15.

reaction of the regime, whether they will use chemical weapons in

:08:15.:08:18.

the capital, whether they will level or shell certain

:08:18.:08:21.

neighbourhoods in the capital. you worry about the world reaction

:08:21.:08:25.

to this. Because the Syrian National Council, which you

:08:25.:08:28.

represent supports the Free Syrian Army, some people will think of a

:08:28.:08:31.

bombing like this as an act of terrorism? The international

:08:31.:08:35.

position is now, with all due respect, is irrelevant. The

:08:35.:08:40.

international community has been watching Syrians being slaughtered

:08:40.:08:45.

on TV screens for 15 months now without moving or weren'ting

:08:45.:08:50.

anything significant to stop -- presenting anything significant to

:08:50.:08:55.

stop the bloodshed in Syria. It has been held hostage by China and

:08:55.:08:59.

Russia, and there hasn't been a condemnation resolution, let alone

:08:59.:09:03.

a resolution to bring any peace to the country. Syrians on the ground

:09:03.:09:09.

have realised the only way to end this tyranny, and to end the error

:09:09.:09:19.

of Mafia and vicious regime is by doing it by their own hands. That

:09:19.:09:25.

is what we have seen. They have learned that clashing and seizing

:09:26.:09:30.

territory will not bring the regime down, but hitting the lion's den in

:09:30.:09:34.

Damascus, and hitting hard. Do you also expect, you said as everyone

:09:34.:09:38.

knows the holy month of Ramadan is just about to begin, from the point

:09:38.:09:42.

of view of the Free Syrian Army, there will be more attacks in

:09:42.:09:46.

Damascus, from the point of view of the regime, there could be much

:09:46.:09:49.

further repression, you even raised yourself the possible use of

:09:49.:09:55.

chemical weapons in Damascus itself? If the regime used the

:09:55.:10:01.

chemical weapons any way on Syrians and in Damascus, this will be a

:10:01.:10:06.

complete game-changer, even Russia and China can't stand in front of

:10:06.:10:09.

the security resolution now, and allowing the use of force to get

:10:09.:10:15.

rid of this regime. They may threaten the use of it, only in the

:10:15.:10:20.

coming days we will know. The very significant point here is that this

:10:20.:10:23.

attack took place less than three miles away from the Presidential

:10:23.:10:29.

Palace. The circle around Assad, and at top level, is shrinking

:10:29.:10:39.
:10:39.:10:40.

dramatically. That was forced -- that forced the command and army in

:10:40.:10:44.

Syria to call for the bringing back of the fighting units that have

:10:44.:10:51.

been disperseded throughout the country. And brirpbg, even the most

:10:51.:10:57.

vicious and blood -- bring even some of the most vicious and bloody

:10:57.:11:01.

paramilitary groups to Damascus, in order to try to stop the SFA from

:11:01.:11:06.

taking more ground in Siria. They withdrew some troops from the Golan

:11:06.:11:09.

Heights and brought them back to Damascus.

:11:09.:11:14.

Thank you very much. Minister, you heard what he said,

:11:14.:11:16.

effectively that the international community has done absolutely

:11:16.:11:23.

nothing. There is not even a condemnationry resolution in the UN,

:11:23.:11:30.

which means that the Syrians have to take it in their hand? He's

:11:30.:11:37.

right to point the finger of failure at the UN, to not even have

:11:37.:11:42.

a condemnatory resolution, despite all our efforts to try to get the

:11:42.:11:47.

council to work together, we have been thwarted by this issue.

:11:47.:11:50.

says you are held hostage by Russia's view? The UN Security

:11:50.:11:55.

Council has to act together, I think the net effect is the same.

:11:55.:11:58.

That is why we are trying so hard in the light of today's events,

:11:58.:12:02.

which is shocking and has huge significance, to say there is now

:12:02.:12:05.

real urgency for the international community to demonstrate that it is

:12:05.:12:09.

prepared to act together. So we are going to table a chapter 7

:12:09.:12:13.

resolution, calling for real teeth, in terms of sanctions, to be put

:12:13.:12:17.

behind Kofi Annan's plan. Which is for a ceasefire, to allow peaceful

:12:17.:12:20.

dialogue to take place. That is the answer, not more violence. There

:12:20.:12:24.

are those who think it is a convenient excuse to blame the

:12:24.:12:27.

Russians and Chinese, and so on, in fact, if you did get that

:12:27.:12:30.

resolution people would say what are you going to do. Are you going

:12:30.:12:34.

to put boots on the ground, what was the risk to British or American

:12:34.:12:37.

or other personnel, the Americans don't want it in an election year,

:12:37.:12:42.

and nobody wants another Iraq or Afghanistan? The resolution we are

:12:42.:12:44.

talking about now does not put boots on the ground, there is no

:12:45.:12:47.

suggestion of that. What the resolution would do, by

:12:47.:12:50.

demonstrating Russia's support for a resolution that would call for UN

:12:51.:12:55.

sanctions against Syria. It would demonstrate to the regime that if

:12:55.:12:58.

it thinks it has Moscow has a friend, that is not necessarily the

:12:58.:13:01.

case. What has to happen is the regime has to understand that the

:13:01.:13:04.

Syrian people are looking for change, we need to get the

:13:04.:13:07.

ceasefire in place to ensure that some sort of political dialogue

:13:07.:13:12.

takes place. That was the plan that Kofi Annan put forward. That was

:13:12.:13:19.

backed by the UN, it hasn't been delivered, but it must be now.

:13:19.:13:22.

Don't you think realities on the ground have changed, everyone said

:13:22.:13:25.

they wanted Kofi Annan's plan to work, but things have got worse.

:13:25.:13:29.

You have heard there, the holey month of Ramadan won't bring relief

:13:29.:13:34.

from the fighting, it might be the opposite? What we have heard

:13:34.:13:44.

confirms our sense of confirm and - - concern and more to be done. The

:13:44.:13:49.

longer this goes on the longer it will take for Syria to recover. As

:13:49.:13:52.

soon as the violence stops there will be talking. We say it has to

:13:52.:13:55.

happen now, because the longer it goes on the worse it is. That is

:13:55.:13:59.

why we are so determined to carry through the diplomatic efforts.

:13:59.:14:03.

you see today as a hipping point? think today is significant in terms

:14:03.:14:08.

of who was killed, and how close it was. It is impossible to say if it

:14:08.:14:13.

is an individual tipping point. What I can be sure is over the last

:14:13.:14:17.

few weeks we have seen things we haven't seen before, there has been

:14:17.:14:21.

defections, a loss of troops off ground. More support for the

:14:21.:14:26.

opposition building up. Slowly and surely the pressure is building on

:14:26.:14:29.

the regime. If it could be built with diplomatic pressure, and

:14:30.:14:35.

Russia is vietiaal -- vital, we think this would make the

:14:35.:14:40.

difference. In Kosovo s the US and UK took the lead and did nothing,

:14:40.:14:44.

why not in Syria? Because the preference is to do it through the

:14:44.:14:49.

UN. If it is not working, that is the point. Is there a point which

:14:49.:14:54.

the UK would say to the US, maybe we should do something? I said

:14:54.:14:57.

clearly, if diplomacy fails we cannot get a resolution, and the

:14:57.:15:01.

situation is still more bleak, and more desperate for the future, well

:15:01.:15:04.

you can't rule anything out. But the situation will be bleak indeed

:15:04.:15:11.

unless we can get a resolution. the point was raised about these

:15:11.:15:17.

chemical weapons, and the horrendous prospect they could be

:15:17.:15:20.

used against civilians in heavily built-up areas, that seems

:15:20.:15:24.

extraordinary, isn't it? It is extraordinary, we know the regime

:15:24.:15:26.

possesses them. There are clear warnings, that sort of action would

:15:26.:15:31.

be a game-changer. The Syrian regime must know there must be no

:15:31.:15:33.

possibility of using any chemical weapons.

:15:33.:15:42.

Thank you. As we have seen with flair, once a relatively young

:15:42.:15:46.

world -- Tony Blair, once a relatively young leader leaves

:15:46.:15:50.

office, there are opportunities to do things in power which seemed

:15:50.:15:55.

difficult or impossible. So it is with Bill Clinton, who has devoted

:15:55.:16:00.

a considerable amount of time to charitable causes in Africa. He

:16:00.:16:05.

gives an exclufive Newsnight interview on -- exclusive Newsnight

:16:05.:16:13.

interview, on Syria, Africa, and the presidential ideas of his wife.

:16:13.:16:20.

First, as Presidents and ex- Presidents, Bill Clinton and Nelson

:16:20.:16:26.

Mandela have developed a close relationship. The two meeting on

:16:26.:16:30.

President Clinton Bill Clinton's regular visits to South Africa. And

:16:30.:16:35.

yesterday on the eve of Nelson Mandela's 94th birth day. Africa

:16:35.:16:40.

has been the focus of Mr Clinton's work since leaving office in 2001.

:16:40.:16:43.

Fishly the fight gioints HIV, AIDS -- particularly the fight against

:16:43.:16:50.

HIV and AIDS. He visited a clintic in Mozambique, partly funded by his

:16:50.:16:56.

organisation, it offers one of the earliest infant detection, it gives

:16:56.:17:02.

HIV results in less than an hour. want you to help us totally

:17:02.:17:08.

eliminate the transmission of HIV. Clinton's health access initiative,

:17:08.:17:13.

which works across the continent, has reduced the cost of drugs by up

:17:13.:17:17.

to 90%. The Clinton Foundation's ambitions

:17:17.:17:20.

extend beyond healthcare to climate change and removing barriers to

:17:21.:17:28.

economic development. Mr Clinton cut the ribbon on a new library on

:17:28.:17:32.

this South African village, Nelson Mandela's ancestoral village. Today

:17:32.:17:37.

on his birthday, it was not the former US President who was the

:17:37.:17:42.

star of the show. You have just met Nelson Mandela and he's celebrating

:17:42.:17:48.

his 94th birthday. We don't see him very often in public, how is his

:17:48.:17:52.

health? Seemed quite healthy to me. He has gained some weight, and he

:17:52.:17:55.

looked stronger, his colour was better than it was two years ago

:17:55.:17:59.

when I came for the World Cup. I felt good about that. He's 94, he

:17:59.:18:04.

doesn't hear as well as he used to, he doesn't see as well as he used

:18:04.:18:08.

to see. He doesn't move as much as he used to move. But I had a nice

:18:08.:18:14.

visit with him. I think he's very happy in his native village. I

:18:14.:18:18.

think being there, with his wife, having more time to himself, it

:18:18.:18:23.

means great deal to him. But he did say how moved he was by the way his

:18:23.:18:29.

birthday is being celebrated today in South Africa, with the 67

:18:29.:18:32.

minutes of service by every citizen across the country. And I told him

:18:33.:18:35.

that it was being celebrated all over the world. There are

:18:35.:18:39.

celebrations in the UK, and the US, and elsewhere.

:18:39.:18:43.

Now, you and Tony Blair, have been devoting a lot of time to Africa.

:18:43.:18:47.

Is it easier to do this as an ex- leader, because when you are in

:18:47.:18:52.

office, frankly there are no votes in Africa? I actually spent an

:18:52.:18:57.

enormous amount of time in Africa as President. We adapted the

:18:57.:19:02.

African growth and opportunity act. We had lots of efforts to bring

:19:02.:19:06.

Africa into American decision- making. I took the longest trip on

:19:06.:19:10.

the continent any President had ever taken. But what is easier when

:19:10.:19:14.

you get out, is you don't have to worry about logistics so much. If

:19:14.:19:19.

you are working, as iefpl, on economic development, on ago -- as

:19:19.:19:24.

I am, on economic development, an agricultural development, on AIDS,

:19:25.:19:28.

Malaria, on climate change, you can go to the sites and get into the

:19:28.:19:31.

details of what you are doing. That is fun for me, I like doing that. I

:19:31.:19:35.

didn't have the opportunity to do that when I was President, and I

:19:35.:19:38.

like this. How much of the problems in Africa that you encounter are

:19:38.:19:45.

man made, that they are rooted in bad governance in Sudan, or Mali,

:19:45.:19:48.

or Zimbabwe. That is very frustrating, because sometimes you

:19:48.:19:51.

have to turn a blind eye to what people are up to, because you have

:19:51.:19:57.

to work for the Governments? places where the Government is bad,

:19:57.:20:01.

and/or corrupt, we still provide AIDS medicine, at the world's

:20:01.:20:06.

lowest prices. If they need that. And technology.

:20:06.:20:11.

Sometimes we train personnel, but by and large we only work on an on

:20:11.:20:17.

going basis in places where the Government asks us. We do have

:20:17.:20:21.

where we operate a strict no corruption pledge, governing our

:20:21.:20:24.

own activities. One of the things I hope to do, when I started this

:20:24.:20:28.

effort, not just in Africa but throughout the world, is to build

:20:28.:20:32.

the capacity of Governments to function well, particularly in the

:20:32.:20:36.

healthcare area. I find as capacity goes up, corruption tends to go

:20:36.:20:43.

down. The HIV prevention drug, Truvada, has now been approved in

:20:43.:20:45.

the United States. Are we at a breakthrough point in the

:20:45.:20:51.

prevention of HIV, with profound implications for Africa? I hope so.

:20:51.:20:55.

But I still believe, because Truvada is a new drug, because it

:20:55.:20:59.

will be more mostly, I think there are two things we have to do. First

:20:59.:21:05.

of all, in the developing world, we have to continue to work on more

:21:05.:21:11.

cost-effective strategies. We know, for example, that male circumcision

:21:11.:21:16.

reduces the likelihood of infections of males by 60%. It is a

:21:16.:21:20.

one-time operation that will be less expensive than a lifetime

:21:20.:21:22.

regime of Truvada. The other thing is, in the developed countries,

:21:22.:21:26.

even in the United States, we have some discreet populations where the

:21:26.:21:31.

infection rate is going up again. And we don't want to take a

:21:31.:21:38.

relatively expensive response, and, in the process, perhaps discourage

:21:38.:21:41.

people from using the preventive measures that have already begun to

:21:42.:21:45.

lose their grip in places where people don't worry about infections

:21:45.:21:51.

any more. I think it is a very, very important timing. If we can

:21:51.:21:56.

keep working to make the medicine more affordable, get the volumes up.

:21:56.:22:00.

It can make a huge difference. The number is staggering, they say the

:22:00.:22:04.

findings of research are that it could reduce the likelihood of new

:22:04.:22:08.

infections by 75%. But we still have to figure out how to pay for

:22:08.:22:12.

it, how to distribute it, and how to avoid having people think they

:22:12.:22:16.

don't need to take preventive measures any more, that are more

:22:16.:22:21.

basic, and less expensive. Can we turn to wider world, when you were

:22:21.:22:25.

President, it was possible to lead the intervention in Yugoslavia, now

:22:26.:22:29.

after Afghanistan and Iraq, do you think people back home don't want

:22:29.:22:33.

to intervene, not just in Africa, but also in place like Syria, for

:22:33.:22:37.

example, where we see a humanitarian crisis but where

:22:37.:22:39.

intervention is extremely difficult? I think the

:22:39.:22:47.

circumstances are different. We had a very long involvement in two war,

:22:47.:22:53.

simultaneously, that was highly costly in lives, in injuries, and

:22:53.:22:59.

in national treasure sure. We also have, in Syria, a difficult

:22:59.:23:03.

situation for two reasons, first of all, it has one of the largest

:23:03.:23:09.

militaries in the world. It has massive air defence systems, which

:23:09.:23:16.

are complicating any efforts to have a no-fly zone. Frankly it's a

:23:16.:23:21.

problematic thing because of the uncertainty about what happens. But

:23:21.:23:26.

I think the United States, and the European allies, in continuing to

:23:26.:23:34.

press the Russians and the Chinese to drop their efforts against more

:23:34.:23:42.

aggressive action are doing the right thing. There is some headway

:23:42.:23:47.

being made by the rebel fighters, and that is important. It is a

:23:47.:23:52.

difficult thing, I sympathise with the leaders, because no-one likes

:23:52.:23:55.

seeing the Syrian Government kill all these people. But we don't want

:23:55.:23:59.

to bring in the international community in a way that would lead,

:23:59.:24:03.

let as say, to the bombing of air defence systems that would kill a

:24:03.:24:11.

lot more citizens. We have seen all over that the internally generated

:24:11.:24:15.

efforts of regime change, even if they are supported by those of us

:24:15.:24:20.

on the outside, are more likely to be lasting and have a positive

:24:20.:24:25.

impact. I'm quite hopeful about the Libyan elections, and the fact that

:24:25.:24:31.

they may have an exclusive society that recognising democracy is not

:24:31.:24:35.

only winning an election, but it is minority rights and protecting all

:24:35.:24:38.

sectors within the community. have been talking about the rich

:24:38.:24:42.

world helping the poor, turning to your own election, are the

:24:42.:24:49.

interests of the rich and poor very different, at least as phrased by

:24:49.:24:53.

President Obama and Mitt Romney? Battle lines have been drawn,

:24:53.:24:56.

because I believe, the Republican Party and the Congress, and the

:24:56.:25:01.

nominee for President, say the most important thing is to have further

:25:01.:25:06.

tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans, even if it increases the

:25:06.:25:10.

debt, and weaker regulations, which is what caused the financial

:25:10.:25:14.

meltdown in America, or at least kept it from being stopped in the

:25:14.:25:19.

bud. I think that's highlighting these class differences. As you

:25:19.:25:24.

know Governor Romney's pom say his role as a successful businessman is

:25:24.:25:29.

exactly the kind -- means he's exactly the kind of person to lead

:25:30.:25:34.

the American people, but there is the other point of view that his

:25:34.:25:39.

failure to produce tax returns and all that sort of thing would not

:25:39.:25:43.

help him, what are your thoughts? I'm supporting President Obama, you

:25:43.:25:52.

know my thoughts. I think everybody about a person's record is relevant

:25:52.:25:56.

to service as President. What is the job of the next President? That

:25:56.:26:00.

is to accelerate the recoverry, get us back to full employment, get

:26:00.:26:06.

income growth going in America again. To fully implement the

:26:06.:26:10.

healthcare laws so we bring our cost down in line with our

:26:10.:26:14.

competitor, as well as increased coverage. To create a new energy

:26:14.:26:17.

economy that will generate millions of jobs. I think if you lock at

:26:17.:26:22.

their positions on the issues, and the actions they have taken

:26:22.:26:27.

previously, President Obama's much more likely to produce those

:26:27.:26:30.

results than Governor Romney is. I think that should be the focus. Who

:26:30.:26:36.

is more likely to bring us back to full employment and prosperity. And

:26:36.:26:40.

in general, do you believe we have to grow together, and the

:26:40.:26:43.

Government has a role to play in that, or should we weaken

:26:43.:26:47.

Government and pretend it is the enemy, and say you are on your own.

:26:47.:26:51.

The latter is the philosophy of the modern Republican Party, the former

:26:51.:26:55.

is the fill lost fee of President Obama and the people who support

:26:55.:26:59.

him, and -- philosophy of President Obama and the people who support

:26:59.:27:03.

him. Looking back at your time in office, have you any regrets about

:27:03.:27:08.

the big banks getting people too close to people in the Government,

:27:08.:27:12.

-- getting too close to people in the Government, is there anything

:27:12.:27:16.

you would have liked to do before the problems started? I wish I had

:27:16.:27:21.

raised more public outcry about the rising problems of derivatives.

:27:21.:27:26.

When I left office it was $100 trillion market around the world,

:27:27.:27:31.

when it collapsed it was $700 trillion. I regret I didn't do more

:27:31.:27:36.

to at least try to put that issue front and centre. It might have at

:27:36.:27:40.

least caused more cautionary behaviour on the part of the people

:27:40.:27:45.

engaged in that. As to whether the banks in themselves in America have

:27:45.:27:51.

grown too large, too big to fail, I still don't have an opinion on that.

:27:51.:27:58.

I think maybe I just don't know enough. It seems to me if you have

:27:58.:28:01.

appropriate oversight of both financial and commercial and

:28:01.:28:07.

investment banking, and you require capital reserves, sufficient to

:28:07.:28:11.

cover risks, then you are better off. If you look at Canada, they

:28:11.:28:16.

didn't have financial collapse, and they had unified investment banks,

:28:16.:28:20.

commercial banks under one roof. Same thing is true in Germany. If

:28:20.:28:24.

you look at what happened in the UK and Ireland, with the housing

:28:24.:28:30.

bubble, it was just an old fashioned case of too little

:28:31.:28:34.

oversight. There was not enough capital reserves for risks taken. I

:28:34.:28:39.

think that was the primary cause of it. But I do wish I had raised more

:28:39.:28:43.

hell about the derivatives. A final thought. As you know, the election

:28:44.:28:47.

of the first African-American President leaves people wondering

:28:47.:28:52.

when the United States will have its first woman President. I'm

:28:52.:28:55.

wondering if there is enough room for another Clinton in the White

:28:55.:29:00.

House, and if you are open to the idea of Hillary running in 2016?

:29:00.:29:06.

She says she intends to retire from public life and work with me in our

:29:06.:29:11.

own Governmental organisations. I'm open to her doing whatever she

:29:11.:29:16.

wants to do. I think she's the ablist person I have ever known and

:29:16.:29:19.

worked with, you could say my opinion is biased and it is. If you

:29:19.:29:23.

look at the support she has received from the American people,

:29:23.:29:28.

they feel that way too. That's a long way away. We are not kids any

:29:28.:29:31.

more. There are a lot of people who want to be President, and a lot of

:29:31.:29:35.

things that can happen between now and then. So I think you have to

:29:35.:29:39.

take her at her word, and let's see what happens. I'm more worried

:29:39.:29:41.

about trying to re-elect President Obama right now.

:29:41.:29:46.

Thank you very much. Son-in-law good news, the British

:29:46.:29:50.

economy, for all its woes, is creating jobs. The bad news is,

:29:50.:29:54.

while unemployment is falling, the long-term unemployed remain a big

:29:54.:29:59.

problem. Some good news, the British economy for all its wos is

:29:59.:30:06.

creating job. The bad news is the long-term unemployed are the big

:30:06.:30:09.

problem. We seem to have the unemployment rate cut in the

:30:09.:30:12.

economy, but the economy is not doing well. The unemployment rate

:30:12.:30:17.

is still high, but not getting higher as some people expected a

:30:17.:30:21.

year ago. What it is pointing towards is there are still jobs

:30:21.:30:26.

being created out there, the question is what sort of jobs, are

:30:26.:30:33.

they particularly high-calibre. This campaign poster once told a

:30:33.:30:37.

thousand political words. An economy in crisis, begets an

:30:37.:30:43.

employment crisis. But now, that simple political

:30:43.:30:49.

dynamic may be just as much historical art fact, as Saatchi &

:30:49.:30:52.

Saatchi's 70s' poster. Today's Britain's poor economy is not

:30:52.:30:56.

matched by snaking unemployment figures.

:30:56.:30:59.

Figures out today suggest that those Britain is in recession, and

:30:59.:31:04.

though unemployment is at its highest level in 18 years, it isn't

:31:04.:31:08.

getting any worse. For the fourth month running, the statistics

:31:08.:31:13.

included reasons to be cheerful. The unemployment rate is 8.1%, down

:31:13.:31:19.

on the previous quarter. The total number of those jobless is down to

:31:19.:31:23.

65 throw though. The lowest level for almost a year. Those in

:31:23.:31:26.

employment have increased by 181 though though their highest level

:31:27.:31:32.

for four years. -- 181,000, their highest level for

:31:32.:31:36.

four years. This is a good set of figures for the labour market. If

:31:36.:31:41.

you went back four years and asked anybody what you would have

:31:41.:31:49.

expected to happen, given the proi longed period of low -- prolong

:31:49.:31:56.

period of low growth, we wouldn't have expected this. It reflects the

:31:56.:31:59.

resilience of the British labour market during this recession. It

:31:59.:32:04.

reflects very well on how employees and companies have behaved. We have

:32:04.:32:08.

seen short time working and lower real wage increases than you might

:32:08.:32:12.

have expected. That has saved jobs. While it is difficult for the

:32:12.:32:15.

individuals involved, having to accept part-time work, or lower pay,

:32:15.:32:19.

it is still a lot better than the alternative, which would have been

:32:19.:32:27.

much longer dole queues. British workers appear to have struck an

:32:27.:32:30.

unspoken pact, with firms, learning lessons from the Japanese of short

:32:30.:32:35.

time, staying on in a job with diminished hours, because it is

:32:35.:32:40.

better than the alternative. In a recession there is a paradox of

:32:40.:32:44.

productivity, if you carry on you need less workers, and they don't

:32:44.:32:49.

get jobs, we found that in the United States. In contrast, in

:32:49.:32:52.

Germany they are hoarding workers, they don't want to let them go,

:32:52.:32:57.

they are good people. Productivity goes down, but we hope if we keep

:32:57.:33:07.
:33:07.:33:13.

the skilled workers productivity The reasons for the lack of drop in

:33:13.:33:19.

figures could be the short time. Some of the people in that famous

:33:19.:33:24.

political poster were Photoshopped in, and today's iconic figures are

:33:24.:33:28.

also not quite what they seem. We have had an increase in self-

:33:28.:33:31.

employment and part-time workers, but neither of those things are

:33:31.:33:35.

unalloy good. Self-employed workers may have work, but is it as much as

:33:35.:33:39.

they want. Are they getting quite the number of commissions they need.

:33:39.:33:42.

Part-timers, most of them want to work more. Britain is working, it

:33:42.:33:47.

is just working more flexibly, possibly more insecurely.

:33:47.:33:52.

The number of self-employed people, both full and part-time, went up by

:33:52.:34:00.

32,000, or 0.8% from the previous quarter T rose from 66,000 from the

:34:00.:34:06.

same period a year before. -- it rose from 166,000 from the same

:34:06.:34:11.

period a year before. It in some ways reflects flexibility, which in

:34:11.:34:15.

times of recession is a good thing for the economy and individuals as

:34:15.:34:19.

a whole. The question is what will happen when we come out of

:34:19.:34:23.

recession. Will we see that type of employment that may be negative for

:34:24.:34:26.

some individuals, being entrenched, or will companies and workers find

:34:27.:34:30.

ways of making it work for them during the upturn as well. It is

:34:30.:34:37.

too early to tell. Too early to tell on whether today's benign

:34:37.:34:42.

trends really are benign. But there are those who need a little time to

:34:42.:34:46.

digest. Long-term unemployment uncrease today, those out of work

:34:46.:34:54.

for more than two years rose today. The worst figures since 1997. Those

:34:54.:34:57.

claiming job sooker's allowance rose.

:34:57.:35:01.

Including more -- jobseeker's allowance rose. Both thought to

:35:01.:35:06.

have been the result of the tightening of the benefits' regime.

:35:07.:35:11.

The long-term picture is more bleak. A lot of people are going for self-

:35:11.:35:14.

employment, they don't show up in the statistics, but income may have

:35:14.:35:19.

dropped from being employed. It is a much tougher and rougher world

:35:19.:35:25.

than it seems. The overall level of employment is much higher than down

:35:25.:35:30.

here. The second thing is companies are genuinely holding on to skilled

:35:30.:35:35.

employees, but there is a great gap between those who have kills, and

:35:35.:35:41.

those who are seeingsly unskilled. Companies are increasing

:35:41.:35:46.

apprenticeship -- seemingly unskilled. Companies are increasing

:35:46.:35:54.

apprenticeships. Squint at the headlines and Britains are making

:35:54.:35:57.

decisions they wouldn't have, they are clinging on to job, even if the

:35:57.:36:02.

jobs are shrunken. The unemployment rate is bucking the rules of

:36:02.:36:05.

previous recessions. Have you ever downloaded music

:36:05.:36:09.

illegally? If you have done, you are not alone in joining in the

:36:09.:36:13.

kind of piracy that has the industry really concerned. BPI, the

:36:13.:36:18.

British music trade body, has requested the deletion of more

:36:18.:36:22.

illegal music files in the six months of this year than the whole

:36:23.:36:31.

of 201. Now it is turning its anger on Google for listing piracy sites.

:36:31.:36:36.

That has put Google at the heart of a very political debate.

:36:36.:36:41.

It might seem like an industry in rude good health. But UK music

:36:41.:36:45.

feels it is under siege. Album sales are down 20% over five years,

:36:45.:36:49.

and the Internet awash with free music, and labels are demanding

:36:49.:36:56.

that the Government does more to help them take on web pirates.

:36:56.:37:06.
:37:06.:37:08.

Their principle tart, going going theyle -- Google, they accuse it of

:37:08.:37:13.

helping pirates. If you go to Google and put in

:37:13.:37:18.

Adele and mp3, one of the options you get offered is a free download,

:37:18.:37:22.

that is what many people come here looking for. Let's ignore this and

:37:22.:37:28.

just search for Adele mp3, look through the first three pages of

:37:28.:37:32.

results, you will struggle to find anything that appears to be a

:37:32.:37:40.

legitimate site offering access to Adele's music.

:37:40.:37:47.

With huge sales, Adele doesn't need to worry, what about Styly Cee and

:37:47.:37:53.

Capo this UK hip hop artist is among several in the catalogue of a

:37:53.:37:57.

one-man record label. Son Records says illegal downloads are killing

:37:57.:38:05.

its business. In the last few years you have seen

:38:05.:38:11.

the drop in sales, in previous years it is healthy and in latter

:38:11.:38:15.

years it is chipped away. I look on-line I find a lot of my stuff

:38:15.:38:23.

lying about for free. It seems it is getting a worse problem.

:38:23.:38:26.

So, with one Styly Cee album, Alastair Nicholson tried a new

:38:26.:38:33.

approach. First he put it out on vinyl only, without offering

:38:33.:38:39.

digital copies for reviewers, that went well, then he released it for

:38:39.:38:43.

paid download, the next morning he checked Google. I searched for the

:38:43.:38:48.

artist name and title, it was page after page, after page, of file

:38:48.:38:52.

shares and free downloads. I didn't get to anything legitimate until, I

:38:52.:38:56.

can't remember, it was either the Beth bottom of the fifth page or

:38:56.:39:02.

sixth page. What impact did that -- It was either at the bottom of the

:39:02.:39:07.

fifth page or the sixth page. impact did that have on the album?

:39:07.:39:11.

It pretty much killed it. The trade body that hands out the annual Brit

:39:11.:39:17.

Awards, has been stepping up the pressure on Google, demanding it

:39:17.:39:25.

pushing piracy sites lower down its search results. Once we have told

:39:25.:39:29.

Google 100,000 times that a particular site is illegal, it

:39:29.:39:32.

shouldn't be coming above iTunes and Spotify in the search results.

:39:32.:39:37.

They say they are doing everything they can to help you, but they

:39:37.:39:41.

can't mess around with the algorithm? They are in complete

:39:41.:39:45.

control of that to decide where things come in the search rankings.

:39:45.:39:48.

We are saying, once they have knowledge that a site is illegal,

:39:49.:39:53.

to give an example, a court ruled in the UK that a particular site is

:39:53.:39:59.

illegal and it should be blocked. They still list that site above

:39:59.:40:06.

iTunes and Amazon, in search sites, if you search "download music".

:40:06.:40:09.

Google knows it is in the spotlight, it has been trying to mend fences

:40:09.:40:16.

with the music industry. Some say the answer is choke off funding for

:40:16.:40:20.

pirate sites. It is not up to Google to go around the world

:40:20.:40:25.

judging what is and isn't legal. I don't think people want us to do.

:40:25.:40:28.

When people say it is their content, we remove it quickly and do two

:40:28.:40:32.

million a month. What our research shows is however much you do on

:40:32.:40:37.

filtering, blocking, what would be much more effective would be to go

:40:37.:40:42.

after the money, and remove the financial underpinnings, the

:40:42.:40:46.

triesing and payment processes on the sites -- The advertising and

:40:46.:40:51.

payment processes on the sites. music industry recently thought

:40:51.:40:54.

Jeremy Hunt was on their site, and he was briefing that the

:40:54.:40:59.

communications bill would put Google on notice to act. Then came

:40:59.:41:02.

his difficulties at the Leveson Inquiry, after which the bill of

:41:02.:41:07.

put on the back burner, now the music industry fears that going

:41:07.:41:13.

google executives appear to have great access to key figures at --

:41:13.:41:21.

Google executives appear to have great access to key figures at

:41:21.:41:23.

Downing Street? Google have enormous influence with Government

:41:23.:41:31.

and are an impressive company. They spend an enormous amount on

:41:31.:41:35.

lobbying, we think the creative industries should be listened to as

:41:35.:41:40.

well. Google would deny the undue influence, and the BPI has devoted

:41:40.:41:46.

plenty of resources to lobbying over the years.

:41:46.:41:51.

The trouble is, the music industry doesn't speak with one voice. In

:41:51.:41:57.

fact, even within bands you will find different views.

:41:57.:42:02.

One last sound check for The Charlatans before a gig. The band

:42:02.:42:07.

made its first album in 1990, but still isn't sure how it feels about

:42:08.:42:11.

its music being free on pirate sites.

:42:11.:42:18.

I should feel terrible, right. But, I can't really lie and say that I

:42:18.:42:24.

don't really feel that bad about it. At the end of the day, I speak from

:42:24.:42:28.

a musician's point of view, the fundamental reason is for people to

:42:28.:42:33.

listen to your music. But, put it to them that their

:42:33.:42:36.

industry believes the likes of Google and the advertisers are

:42:36.:42:39.

making money from pirate sites, and you get a different view. I think

:42:39.:42:44.

they are not going to make, and they are not showing respect, it is

:42:44.:42:47.

wrong. Something should be done about it. That is morally wrong,

:42:47.:42:55.

isn't it. For Google, the politics of all are

:42:55.:42:58.

tricky, it wanted to be seen as a champion of free expression, but it

:42:58.:43:02.

knows the Government wants it to play nicely with the music industry.

:43:02.:43:09.

Over the years, Google really has had a reputation of being hippy-

:43:09.:43:17.

dippy, sandal-wearing, everything- on-the-internet-is-free, seen to

:43:17.:43:21.

support tacitly the pirate case, are you doing something about that?

:43:21.:43:25.

I'm happy to say Google doesn't support piracy and we support

:43:25.:43:27.

freedom of expression. I don't think those things are in conflict

:43:27.:43:33.

with each other. You do think that Google is in the anti-piracy camp?

:43:33.:43:37.

You can be appropriate in expression and piracy. I think that

:43:37.:43:42.

is true of the music industry and the technical industry as a whole,

:43:43.:43:47.

and it is true of the whole industry. The BPI has said that

:43:47.:43:52.

advertisers and the cred did cart firms are on side with -- credit

:43:52.:43:58.

card firms are on side with tackling piracy, but Google remains

:43:58.:44:03.

outside. If there are a number of people distributing out there, that

:44:03.:44:08.

is not Google's fault, I'm not laying it on the door. There is

:44:08.:44:12.

this, how would I characterise it, lack of moral viewpoint about is

:44:12.:44:17.

that activity. -- About that activity. And, after

:44:17.:44:23.

more than a decade, Alastair says he's now released his last record.

:44:23.:44:29.

Unless you are going to become, you know, the corporate mascot for God

:44:29.:44:34.

knows who, Barclaycard, Weetabix, you name it, whatever,y see that

:44:34.:44:42.

there is that many case just to make a business selling music.

:44:42.:44:48.

UK music may be widely admired, but its �1800 million annual income is

:44:48.:44:52.

in decline. And, in taking on Google, which makes around three-

:44:52.:44:56.

times that, just in the UK, the record industry may find it is on

:44:56.:45:06.
:45:06.:45:24.

the wrong side of history. A similar picture on the Guardian,

:45:24.:45:31.

three key allies killed in Damascus, and there are rumours the

:45:31.:45:35.

President's wife has fled Syria. The Independent has similar

:45:35.:45:40.

pictures. A story about the UK's nuclear

:45:40.:45:44.

deterrent may be mothballed to save millions.

:45:44.:45:49.

The HIV story I was exploring with President Clinton, a claim that HIV

:45:49.:45:57.

can be cured. The FT has four banks targeting in

:45:57.:46:07.
:46:07.:46:09.

the Euribor issues. We leave news that Bollywood's first superstar

:46:09.:46:13.

died today. He made his name as the romantic lead in a string of films,

:46:13.:46:23.
:46:23.:47:02.

Hello, good evening, drying up, by morning light and patchy rain

:47:02.:47:05.

across England and North Wales. It breaks up into showers, there will

:47:05.:47:09.

be quite a few showers in the south-east. Showers elsewhere much

:47:09.:47:14.

fewer, more scattered a dryer day across northern England. Lighter

:47:14.:47:17.

showers across the Midlands and East Anglia. It is really the

:47:17.:47:20.

south-east of England that will see most of the showers in the

:47:20.:47:25.

afternoon, some heavy and possibly thundery, likely to affect the

:47:25.:47:31.

cricket at the offal, the showers fading away in -- at the Oval, the

:47:31.:47:34.

showers fading away and the winds not as strong. A few showers

:47:34.:47:37.

continuing in the north of the country and for Northern Ireland

:47:37.:47:41.

the odd light shower through the day. Disappointing temperatures,

:47:41.:47:44.

despite the fact that here and Scotland will be dryer than it has

:47:44.:47:47.

been today. With fewer, lighter showers, temperatures aren't really

:47:47.:47:53.

rising very much, we still have this gentle north-to-north-westerly

:47:53.:47:57.

drift. Lighter winds but not warmer. The same can be said for Friday,

:47:57.:48:02.

more showers across the northern half of the UK. Very few showers

:48:03.:48:08.

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