Iraq: 10 Years On Newsnight


Iraq: 10 Years On

Kirsty Wark presents a special programme with a studio audience, looking at how Iraq and the world changed following the war ten years ago.


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Tonight, as we approach the ten- year anniversary of the war in Iraq,

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we explore how Iraq, Britain and the world changed.

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I'm with an audience made up of members of the public, as well as

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former players, experts, thinkers, including Colonel Tim Collins,

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weapons inspector, Hans Blix, and the author, Michael Morpurgo, and

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the Prime Minister who took us into war, Tony Blair, tells us Iraq

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remains a devisive issue for Welcome from the BBC Radio Theatre

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at broadcasting House, to a Newsnight special, Iraq, ten years

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on. An invited audience of experts, players, as well as members of the

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public joins us tonight. Ten years ago we were told that Iraq had

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weapons of mass destruction. That the war could rid the country of

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those weapons and a brutal dictator. Things look very different now. A

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conservative estimate says 100,000 Iraqis have died since the war

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began. Other estimates put that figure as high as 650,000. But both

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are heavily disputed, what is not disputed is that 179 British

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soldiers lost their lives in the conflict. We pulled out over three

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years ago, but sectarian violence continues. First I want to talk to

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our panel, and I'm joined by the Iraqi film maker, Mohamed Al-

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Daradji, life is still very precarious? Life is not easy in

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Baghdad today. I just came from Baghdad last week, and it is still

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difficult. It is you look back and you look like 2003/04, things have

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changed for the good, but there is a lot of things have been changed

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for the bad. From the Kurdish point of view, as

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the Kurdish representative here. Life is not good for all Iraqis is

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it, Bayan Sami Rahman? Kurdistan there is life, there was an

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attempted genocide against the Kurds, there was chemical

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bombardment, today we have a prospering economy, everyone in

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Kurdistan is better off, young people all over Iraq, not just

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Kurdistan, instead of worrying about being conscriptsed into an

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army and going into crazy wars, they are more worried about is

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their Facebook profile correct. Things are better for many Iraqis,

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but much better for Kurdistan. Coming to you in Baghdad, as an

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opposition leader, you wanted to persuade Tony Blair and George W

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Bush to invade Iraq. Did you think it would look like this ten years

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on? Absolutely not. I did not encourage neither Tony Blair nor

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Bush to invade Iraq. We were all ourselves in agreement with trying

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to change the regime from within Iraq. Rather than to invade Iraq.

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So this is what has happened, unfortunately. We were faced by a

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lack of policies, post-conflict policies, what to do with Iraq

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after the occupation of Iraq. That is what we are left now. We will

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talk about that in a minute. We will carry on the conversation

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after we have heard from the BBC world affairs editor, Jon Simpson,

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who has travelled to the country regularly since the 1980s. This is

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his personal assessment of Iraq, ten years on.

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Iraqi denials of weapons of mass destruction, this is part and

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parcel of a policy of evasion and deception that goes back 12 years.

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It is all the web of lies. He has existing and active military

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plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons, which could be

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activated within 45 minutes. Saddam Hussein and his sons must leave

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Iraq within 48 hours. Tonight British servicemen and women are

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engaged from air, land and sea. Their mission, to remove Saddam

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Hussein from power and disarm Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction.

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It came as a genuine shock to Blair and Bush to find that Saddam had

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craftly got rid of his weapons beforehand. There was another

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serious miscalculation, the man who later became Iraq's vice-president

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told me he went to see President Bush not long before the invasion,

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and was horrified to realise that neither he nor the people around

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him had any conception of the deep divisions between Shia Muslims and

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Sunni Muslims in Iraq. Under Saddam Hussein's ferocious control, those

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kind of divisions had been heavily stamped on, now they were to come

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out into the open once again. They are urging them to pull the

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statue down, there it goes. 25 years of hatred and rage as they

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jump up on the statue, trouncing it with anything. At first the

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Shi'ites were delighted with the invasion, and celebrated around the

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statue of the fallen President, a Sunni himself, who depended on

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Sunni support. When the Sunni town of Fallujah rebelled in April 203,

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the Americans made an example of it. Staging all-out attacks and killing

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rebels and ordinary civilians alike. The insurrection grew fiercer and

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fiercer, by 2006 it seemed to be a possibility the Americans might be

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defeated outright. The vital supply road from Baghdad Airport, code

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named Route Irish, was the most attacked area of the entire country.

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Plans were drawn up to evacuate the Green Zone if necessary. The

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American commanders seemed listless and pessimistic. It looked as

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though they had lost their nerve. But a new American commander, David

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Petraus, proposed a surge in American troop numbers, that would

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damp down the insurgency, and at least give the impression it had

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been defeated. It was degenerating into a sectarian Sunni versus Shia

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war. Things are unquestionably better nowadays in Iraq, and the

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economy is doing well. Basic supplies like water, electricity

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and even rubbish collection, are still a very real concern, whether

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you are Sunni, Shia or Kurd. So, of course, is security. When I look

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back on it all nothing has gone as expected. It has been a real mess.

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Sure, a savage and unpredictable dictator was Joan thrown, but he

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was the one that was keep -- overthrown, but he was the one that

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was keeping control over Iran in the region. Now the Americans are

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losing power and Iran is gaining it. The price paid by ordinary Iraqis

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has been a terrible and continuing one.

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We will be hearing a little more later in the programme about that.

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Out to the audience, you were the spokesman for the Iraqi-Islamic

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Party, you are a Sunni. How have things changed for you, are things

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better? Things are worse now, because now there is an ethnic

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divide and sectarian divide that is very difficult to be bridgeed now.

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There is a lot of provinces in Iraq are demanding more power-sharing,

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because they don't trust the Government. Now there is in the

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western and northern part of Iraq there is a kind of Arab uprising

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because of the deeply sectarian policies of the Government. Do you

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feel you are on your way to a Civil War? Yes, I think we feel very much

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so. Because the Government in the past three or four years they have

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purged the military and the Security Services of all the other

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communities apart from the Shia community. This is a problem.

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You, I know are involved in a number of ways, including trying to

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get young people involved in democracy, is this the picture you

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recognise? No, to be fair, there are many problems and I think my

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colleague did allude to them. But the fact is, Iraqis now have that

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space to be able to negotiate those power struggles. They are able to

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express themselves. They are able to look to the future. I think the

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conditions now are so much different than they were before.

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Through my work in Iraq there is so many signs for optimisim. Huge

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challenges. Look these problems were deep-seated and pre-war. Let's

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not pretend they came out just because of the war itself. In terms

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of even things like insecurity of water and electricity, do people

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feel that they are being dealt a tough hand at the moment? They are

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still struggling and the infrastructure is still struggling,

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I total low agree with that. But, they are looking -- totally agree

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with that, but they are looking towards the future and it will take

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time. Nadia, you have worked in Iraq and with women way back in the

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late 1990s, it is not black and white about how things have changed,

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but tell me what do women feel? Do they feel they have essential

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freedoms now or not? I mean Iraqi women as women in Britain don't

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think one thing, they are different views. Baseded on my own research

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and talking to Iraqi women's rights activists, there are lots of

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problems in terms of basic education, labour force

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participation is very low. Just moving around, and also we have an

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increased and gender-based violence. Having said that, despite all the

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problems, trafficking is high, forced prostitution and forced

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marriages, domestic violence, rape, all these have increased, and I

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mean I agree that in the Kurdish region it is actually much better,

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but there are problems as well with women. But, despite that, you

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actually have women mobilising. I think it is important to be nuanced.

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In a sense they feel they have to come through this. You have talked

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a lot about the feminineisation of poverty, they are the ones that get

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hit worse? We have a large percentage of female-headed

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household, widows, divorcees, they are really struggling. Emma

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Nicholson, you were very much for the invasion, you work with Iraqi

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business, you must be very disheartened when you hear about

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this. Apart from anything else, talking about increase in rape and

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forced marriage, this is not what you fought for? I have just spent

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two weeks going from the top to the bottom of Iraq, I will be back

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there in another fortnight. Iraq is transformed country. Yes there is a

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lot to be done, there are a million widows, it is not easy looking at

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them all on the register. Just under half a million already

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receiving widows stipends, but today Iraq is a different country.

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Wage, jobs, future, all there for the asking. And the most essential

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thing of all is freedom. That's the precious thing. You have writ an

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new book about the new authoritarianism, is it there for

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the asking? When we look at Iraq today we see a grossly imbalanced

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state, a million men are armed, 12% of the population, yet they can't

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deliver more than seven-and-a-half hours of electricity a day. The

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legacy of the invasion is the hugely mill tar raised society,

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pumping millions -- militarised society, pumping millions into the

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armed services. The interior services are double the size of the

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army, specifically designed to repress the population. We need to

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have an independent report. The Human Rights Watch report, latest

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report, it talks about the failure of the judicial system and the

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failure of the ruem rights abuses by the Iraqi Security Service --

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human rights abuses by the Iraqi Security Services. We need an

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independent report, not from an interest group. This is the problem.

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We have an Iraqi MP here? A British MP of Iraqi origin. I think Kirsty

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is what you meant to say. Before I became an MP, I ran YouGov, they

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did extensive research in Iraq. The big challenge when you ask the

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people of Iraq, they are looking for a strong decisive be nef lant

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leader, rather than -- benevolent leader, rather than the democracy

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that they interpret as sectarian. Strong leaders. You couldn't make

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it as a strong leader, Dr Law, though you did have a -- Mr Allawi,

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now you see a Government divided along sectarian lines? Now we are

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getting down to a sectarian, unfortunately conflict again. This

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is all because of the stability of the country is in question. The

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political process has not been inclusive. It has been based on

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sectarianism. Disenfranchising larger groups of people. Important

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sections of the Iraqi operation too, and there was no effort to create a

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reconciliation in the country. million people under arms, Dr

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Allawi, that is a pretty bad state of affairs in 2013? A million,

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probably even over a million if you incorporate the militias that exist

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in Iraq. It will be over a million. Do you agree with the guest in the

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studio that we might be heading towards Civil War in Iraq? I hope

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not, but definitely the stability of the country is in question. I

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think Iraq is at a crossroads now, and God forbid things may be pushed

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into more violence, more sectarianism, and indeed more

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instability. The current Government, the current political process is

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still not an inclusive political process. You heard Toby Dodge

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saying this idea, that we might be on our way to a new

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authoritarianism. And that actually, a million people under arms. Do you

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feel you are heading towards some kind of awful future now? I will

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disagree about we are heading to a Civil War. What we see in Iraq

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today is, I think, the main problem is the problem of the politicians

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in Iraq today. We talk about the Government, who is the Government?

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The Government is the coalition Government. A representative of Mr

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Allawi's block, and the Kurdish and the Shi'ite block, they are the

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problems of Iraq today. They are, I think, the problem, because, to be

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honest with you, they are the old generation. Dr Latif has been

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working with young Iraqis, and you culturally work with young Iraqis,

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is there a cafe society from Baghdad, kids coming from Fallujah

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and bass ra, do they see a different kind of future? I sent

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two students from the film institute where I work outside Iraq,

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I didn't know they are Shi'ite or Sunni. And somebody later on told

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me about oh they are coming from that sectarian of Iraq. We didn't

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care, we created a cultural event, we made films and tried to tell the

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story of Iraqi people. You are defiantly, you never say whether

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you are Sunni or Shia? No, I am Iraqi human being.

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APPLAUSE The gentleman there, what is your point? I think it is worth

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thinking about why is that Kurdistan is in much better shape

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than main Iraq. The problem I think is the problem of sectarianism. It

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is a very, very deep problem, it is not just the problem with Iraq, but

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the Muslim world as a whole. Sectarianism, look at Pakistan,

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what is going on there. In a sense we need to re-think, not just the

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society theself, but also to some extent how we view Islam. These are

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actually problems of Islam more than anything else. Do you think,

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Nadia, that the solution does lie with the younger generation, that

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actually the older generation is a kind of busted flush? I wouldn't

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put it this way, but I certainly agree that the problem is with the

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political elite, that has spent 20, 30 years outside, and is

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discredited inside Iraq. Lots of people inside Iraq, in the past

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there were lots of what I called "sushi" marriages, between Shi'ite

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and Sunni, and I don't recognise the narrative that Mr Simpson

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portrays, that this sectarianism was stopped by Saddam. I don't see

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Iraq this way. It seems to me that what is happening in Iraq is that

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all the negative elements are right in our faces. You can see all the

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bad things that might lead the country to a disastrous second

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Civil War. There is no doubt about it that many of those possiblities,

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at any rate, exist. But you see I think there is another Iraq, I

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think it is a stronger Iraq, which has managed to stick together since

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the end of the First World War. These divisions are not something

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invented. Whatever one says about whether Saddam had a role in that,

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that is to be honest not a very valuable question to raise. Because

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the divisions have always been there, it is a question of how

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intense they are. Actually, my personal feel something that Iraq

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is strong enough to be able to withstand a second Civil War, as

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with stood a first Civil War. the Kurds' point of view, you are

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federated in Iraq, it may not always be the case, you think the

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best bet for you at the moment is to stay within the broader country?

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Absolutely. In 2003 we made a decision that we would voluntarily

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remain part of Iraq. It is the first time that we voluntarily have

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made such a decision. But so long as Iraq is federal and democratic.

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Of course, there are enormous challenges, there have been

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enormous taisics. I think the gains -- mistakes. I think the gains that

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Iraq has made reversible, they are not set in stone. We are where we

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are because of the blood that has been shed. It is very important,

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listening to Mohammed and others in the audience that we don't let go

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of that sacrifice. Both of British lives, American lives and Kurdish

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and Arab lives in Iraq. Let's not waste that sacrifice that has been

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made. What Toby Dodge would say is malcan I is the new dictator, --

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Malaki is the new dictator, but you plug away at this, and think this

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is the best way to do it from within? Iraq was in a dictatorship

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for a minimum of 40 years, we are not going to get rid of the taste

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for authoritarian central control overnight. That will take a long

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time. While we have parliament and take constitutional decisions, this

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is the Iraq we will stick with. Give me your point, the gentleman

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in the back. A window into the future of Iraq are the children of

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Iraq. There are about 4.5 million orphans, 6,500 are street orphans.

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The gentleman with the red tie, yes? We seem to blame Iraqis in

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terms of the whole war, but we seem to shed the blame from the west.

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Every time we go into a Civil War in these countries, or invade these

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countries, we seem to support the rebels, and we actually arm them.

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Then we actually turn around and ask where the million people who

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are armed are from? We armed them, how do we disarm them? Good point.

:23:52.:23:58.

APPLAUSE Someone who was persecuted under

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Saddam, left the country, returned after the invasion and helped to

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set up the free he had if raifgs trade unions in Iraq was

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assassinated in 2005, Hadi Salal, I'm wondering how trade unions in

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Iraq are functioning now, having a free trade union movement is the

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hallmark of a civil society. will talk about that.

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I was going to saying, as has been noted, there is a vast problem with

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sectarianism, more should be done with involving community leaders,

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family leaders in teaching and ensuring there shouldn't be that

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difference between Sunni and Shi'ites. As the leader mentioned

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early on, there were "shoe shi" marriages, Sunni and Shi'ite

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marriages. More should be done, if nothing tangible can be seen from

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the Government's point of view, a lot can be done with community

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leaders, with the head of families, in working out as one.

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Mohammed mentioned that the youth of today is the future for Iraq.

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But what about the youth of tomorrow. The orphans, the people

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left behind were is the reconciliation process to make sure

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that those who have lost family, won't militarise themselves for

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vengence later. There seem to be big care issues, we are talking

:25:22.:25:28.

about so many orphans and people without working rights, is civil

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society strong enough to deal with these things Dr Allawi? No, neither

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civil society is strong enough, nor do we have a functioning state. In

:25:37.:25:41.

fact, what the people, your audience is mentioning are all

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correct. I agree with them. Unfortunately we in Iraq we should

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not look only at the angle of Shia versus Sunnis, Arabs versus Kurds.

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It is the state that has not been developed, it is the institutions

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that are not functioning, and we don't have a full-blown civil

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society yet. And all this is because of the political process

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which has been an uninclusive political process. Without

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including every Iraqi into the political process, and without

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moving this society into becoming a civil society and having full-blown

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institutions of the state, it is very difficult to rectify the issue

:26:30.:26:35.

of stability in the country. Thank you very much indeed for your

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contribution. We move on now, in Britain ten years ago we were told

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that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction, which could be

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deployed in 45 minutes. There have now been six inquiries related to

:26:46.:26:51.

the war in Iraq, and the Chilcot Inquiry is due to report later this

:26:51.:26:55.

year on the reasons we went to war. I spoke to former Prime Minister,

:26:55.:26:59.

Tony Blair, about his reflections ten years after the start of the

:26:59.:27:08.

invasion. Is daily life in Iraq today what

:27:08.:27:13.

you hoped it would be ten years ago? No. Because for some people,

:27:13.:27:17.

at least in Iraq, it is immensely difficult. Particularly if you are

:27:17.:27:21.

living in Baghdad and around the centre of the country. There are

:27:21.:27:24.

still terrorist activities that are killing people, killing innocent

:27:24.:27:28.

people for no good run. The country as a whole, its economy is growing

:27:28.:27:32.

very strongly, it has huge amounts of oil revenue, but there are still

:27:32.:27:37.

big problems. At a Conservative estimate, since 2003, 100,000

:27:37.:27:41.

civilians have been killed. 179 British soldiers died. Don't you

:27:41.:27:45.

think that was too high a price? course the price is very, very high.

:27:45.:27:51.

Was it too high? Think of the price that people paid before Saddam was

:27:51.:27:57.

removed. Think of the Iran-Iraq War in which there were a million

:27:57.:28:00.

casualties, hundreds of thousands of conscripts Iranians killed, many

:28:00.:28:04.

by the use of chemical weapons. Chemical weapons attacks on his own

:28:04.:28:09.

people, the Kurds. People oppressed, deprived of their right, tortured

:28:09.:28:13.

and killed on a daily basis, year on year. There are sectarian

:28:14.:28:17.

killings now? Yes, but what is the answer. The answer is not to say to

:28:17.:28:21.

people, I'm afraid we should have left Saddam in charge, otherwise

:28:21.:28:25.

these sectarians will come in and try to destablise the country. The

:28:25.:28:29.

answer is get rid of the oppressive dictatorship and then you have a

:28:29.:28:34.

long, hard struggle to push the sectarian elements out too. Getting

:28:34.:28:37.

rid of the oppressive dictatorship is not why you went in. You only

:28:37.:28:42.

went in for one single reason? course, the reason that we regarded

:28:43.:28:49.

Saddam as a threat has been set out for many, many reports, and many,

:28:49.:28:53.

many times, and we have gone out a huge amount. If you are asking me,

:28:53.:28:55.

which you were, about the state of Iraq today, there are significant

:28:55.:28:58.

improvements in many parts of the country for the people. But I agree

:28:58.:29:02.

with you, it is not nearly what it should be, and the reason for that

:29:02.:29:07.

is not because the will of the Iraqis isn't that they have that

:29:07.:29:11.

prosperity and democracy. The reason is, because people have

:29:11.:29:14.

deliberately tried to destablise the country. This is the problem

:29:14.:29:18.

you have got all over the region. You wrote in your memoirs that you

:29:18.:29:21.

think of those who died in Iraq every day of your life. What do you

:29:22.:29:25.

think about? Of course you think about them and the loss of life and

:29:25.:29:28.

the terrible consequences for the families. But in the end you are

:29:28.:29:32.

elected as a Prime Minister to take these decisions. And the question

:29:32.:29:36.

is, supposing I take the opposite decision. Sometimes what happens in

:29:36.:29:41.

politics, and unfortunately these things get mixed up with

:29:41.:29:46.

allegations of deceit and lying and so on. But in the end, sometimes

:29:46.:29:49.

you come to a decision where whichever choice you take, the

:29:49.:29:54.

consequences are difficult and the choices are ugly. This was one such

:29:54.:29:58.

case. If we hadn't removed Saddam from power. Just think for example

:29:58.:30:02.

what would be happening with these Arab revolutions, if they were

:30:02.:30:08.

continuing now, and Saddam, probably 20-times as bad as Assad

:30:08.:30:12.

in Syria, was trying to suppress an uprising in Iraq. Think of the

:30:12.:30:15.

consequences of leaving that regime in power. When you say do you think

:30:15.:30:21.

of the loss of life and the trouble that has been since 2003, of course

:30:21.:30:25.

I do, you have to be inhumane if not to. Think of what would have

:30:25.:30:28.

happened if he was left there. years on, some people call you a

:30:28.:30:32.

liar, some people call you a war criminal, protestors follow you, it

:30:32.:30:36.

is difficult for you to walk down the streets, of a country where you

:30:36.:30:41.

once had a landslide victory. Do you think Iraq has taken its toll

:30:41.:30:45.

on you? It doesn't matter if it has taken its toll on me. The fact is,

:30:45.:30:49.

yes, there are people who will be very abusive, by the way I do walk

:30:49.:30:54.

down the street. By the way, I won an election in 2005 after Iraq.

:30:54.:30:59.

However, yes it remains extremely devisive, and very difficult. My

:30:59.:31:02.

point to people is this. I have long since given up in trying to

:31:02.:31:05.

persuade people it was the right decision. In a sense what I have

:31:05.:31:10.

tried to persuade people of now is understand how complex and

:31:10.:31:14.

difficult a decision it was. Because I think if we don't

:31:15.:31:20.

understand that we won't take the right decision about what I think

:31:20.:31:23.

will be a series of these types of problems that will arise now over

:31:24.:31:27.

the next few years. You have got one in Syria right now, you have

:31:27.:31:31.

got one in Iran to come. The issue is how do you make the world a

:31:31.:31:39.

safer place. Would you say it was today rather than 2003, would you

:31:39.:31:42.

really say that, nobody would say that? I wouldn't say, that but what

:31:42.:31:46.

I would say is it is safer as a result of having, in my view, as a

:31:46.:31:53.

result of having got rid of Saddam. In other words I think we are in

:31:53.:31:57.

the middle of the struggle, it will take a generation, it will be

:31:57.:32:01.

arduous and difficult, but I think we are making a mistake. I think a

:32:01.:32:04.

profound error if we think we can stay out of the struggle. We are

:32:04.:32:07.

going to be affected by it whether we like it or not.

:32:07.:32:10.

We are going to also be talking during the programme about staying

:32:10.:32:13.

out or going in other countries. You can hear the full interview

:32:13.:32:20.

with Tony Blair on Newsnight tomorrow. I'm joined by Ed Husain,

:32:20.:32:26.

at author of The Islamist, by Michael Morpurgo, and Charles

:32:26.:32:30.

Kennedy and John Rentoul. Charles Kennedy, you heard Tony Blair say

:32:30.:32:36.

there that Iraq is still divisive, do you think trust in politicians

:32:36.:32:43.

has suffered because of Iraq and continues to suffer? Yes, I think

:32:43.:32:46.

that even those at the time who were very sceptical, the number of

:32:46.:32:50.

times I heard people say to me, talking about non-party political

:32:50.:32:54.

people, whatever view they took, well they must know something we

:32:54.:32:57.

don't. There was that element of give Blair, as Prime Minister, the

:32:57.:33:00.

benefit of the doubt. Now, it turned out that what he thought he

:33:00.:33:04.

knew he didn't know, because there weren't weapons of mass destruction.

:33:04.:33:08.

Although I would have to say, going from the highest of high politics,

:33:08.:33:16.

which is war like this, to what was very venal and menial grubby

:33:16.:33:20.

politics, this distorted trust in British politics and institutions,

:33:20.:33:25.

but my God so did the expenses scandal. And taking the two

:33:25.:33:27.

together, that was really toxic for the parliamentary process. John

:33:27.:33:34.

Rentoul, you backed the war in the first place. Do you think Tony

:33:34.:33:38.

Blair says he has long since given up on people actually liking him.

:33:38.:33:42.

But the approbium is on him, it is not generally in politician, it

:33:42.:33:45.

might be about the expenses scandal, but he owned that invasion, didn't

:33:45.:33:50.

he? I think he did. But actually I take a much more optimistic view

:33:50.:33:54.

than Charles does. Actually if you look at opinion polls, people

:33:54.:33:57.

generally didn't trust politicians to tell the truth before the Iraq

:33:57.:34:02.

War, and they were exactly the same after the Iraq War. Charles is

:34:02.:34:05.

absolutely right, the one thing that shifted public opinion in this

:34:05.:34:09.

country of the MPs' expenses business. Iraq, I think was a

:34:09.:34:12.

triumph of British democracy, because parliamentary democracy

:34:12.:34:15.

worked. It wasn't just Tony Blair's decision, it was parliament's

:34:15.:34:25.
:34:25.:34:27.

decision. A triumph for democracy, or a breach of trust. Siegfrid

:34:27.:34:31.

Sasson called it callous complacency. And what seems to have

:34:31.:34:36.

happened is politicians decided on this war. They should have taken a

:34:36.:34:43.

great deal longer, diplomacy should always be given a chance again and

:34:43.:34:50.

again and again and again, before you commit young men to die, to

:34:50.:34:54.

spend their lives maimed. It has to be thought through, and you have to

:34:54.:34:58.

think through the consequences. I think that's not what happened.

:34:58.:35:05.

APPLAUSE I wouldn't defend everything that

:35:05.:35:10.

has happened. I think it has, it went very badly after the invasion.

:35:10.:35:14.

The occupation was very badly handled. One of the most stupid

:35:14.:35:16.

decisions that the British Government made was to assume that

:35:16.:35:23.

the Americans knew what they were doing. We should have learned from

:35:23.:35:27.

history that wasn't a reliable thing to do. That does Amenas, as

:35:27.:35:30.

Tony Blair said in the clip, that it was an easy decision to take.

:35:30.:35:34.

There were consequences of not going into Iraq as well. Initially

:35:34.:35:41.

you supported the war, didn't you. But did you feel let down, and you

:35:42.:35:46.

supported it and you have to deal with it? I was in neighbouring

:35:46.:35:49.

Syria when American and British troops and others went into Iraq.

:35:49.:35:53.

Looking at Syriaed today, and looking at Iraq then -- Syria today,

:35:53.:35:57.

and looking at Iraq then, living under the harsh circumstances of a

:35:57.:36:01.

dictatorship in Syria, I wasn't alone. Thousands of Syrians felt it

:36:01.:36:04.

was the right thing to get rid of Saddam Hussein. Getting rid of

:36:04.:36:06.

Saddam Hussein doesn't equate to supporting the invasion and the

:36:06.:36:10.

mistakes were made. There is a disconnect there. It is worth

:36:10.:36:14.

highlighting the fact that getting rid of barbarians is the right

:36:14.:36:20.

thing to do, but having the day after plan is where it went wrong.

:36:20.:36:23.

You are here to talk about this as a British Muslim. Did you feel it

:36:24.:36:27.

has had an impact on trust, particularly among British Muslims

:36:27.:36:30.

and the Government? Absolutely, I totally disagree with John, I think

:36:30.:36:34.

we trusted politicians a bit more before the Iraq War. But after the

:36:34.:36:40.

Iraq War, which was based on a mega-lie, and subsequent events,

:36:40.:36:44.

including the MP expenses affair, we trust the politicians less.

:36:44.:36:49.

Interestingly, in the Muslim community itself, we have two

:36:49.:36:51.

simultaneous reaction. There is a large segment of the Muslim

:36:52.:36:56.

community that, although it doesn't trust the politicians, it wants to

:36:56.:36:59.

get actively involved in politics. But at the same time, there is a

:36:59.:37:04.

very small segment that trusts, that distrusts everything and is

:37:04.:37:09.

taking a rather extremist stance. want to take a lot of hands up. You

:37:09.:37:15.

look at this from a different perspective? I agree that

:37:15.:37:19.

definitely the issue of trust has really been a massive sea-change in

:37:19.:37:23.

British politics since the Iraq War. There is now massive distrust with

:37:23.:37:28.

British political institutions. That has been compounded as Charles

:37:28.:37:31.

Kennedy said, by all the subsequent scandals. The fundamental thing

:37:31.:37:34.

missing here is the reality that Intelligence Services did receive

:37:34.:37:38.

evidence that there were no WMDs, that is now becoming a massive

:37:38.:37:42.

issue. It has come out through the Iraq Inquiry and various other

:37:42.:37:45.

things. The question is how we had the political class interfering

:37:45.:37:50.

with the intelligence process, to create this resolve that we didn't

:37:50.:37:57.

like. What affect has that had on the Muslim community? For the vast

:37:58.:38:01.

majority of British Muslims they feel very loyal to Britain and they

:38:01.:38:04.

are engaged. The danger is with the minority. It has definitely

:38:04.:38:08.

increase the vocalism of an irate extremist minority, who are using

:38:08.:38:12.

the issue of Iraq, the issue of Afghanistan and the foreign policy

:38:13.:38:17.

in the Muslim world, to rile up the extremist ideology. That is the

:38:17.:38:24.

danger, that they are creating this very devisive "us" and "them" out

:38:24.:38:28.

of it. That whole issue of trust, you have done both things, Iraq,

:38:28.:38:31.

Afghanistan, politics, trust has gone particularly with some members

:38:31.:38:34.

of the British Muslim community? And the big question for us is what

:38:34.:38:41.

are we going to do about it. How will we reform, we made mistake

:38:41.:38:45.

after mistake, that is parliament and the army, what reforms have we

:38:45.:38:48.

introduced to stop this happening again. How can you trust a Prime

:38:48.:38:52.

Minister now who travels around the Middle East with a group of arms

:38:52.:38:56.

dealers on his plane? APPLAUSE

:38:56.:38:59.

I will come back to the panel on that. The woman right in the back

:38:59.:39:03.

with the white T-shirt on? Have we forgotten one of the reasons that

:39:03.:39:08.

we went into Iraq, and that was to bring democracy to the country. I,

:39:08.:39:12.

a daughter of Iraqi parents, was very proud to vote in the 2005

:39:13.:39:17.

Iraqi elections. APPLAUSE

:39:17.:39:21.

Despite the travails and the problems, you think for every

:39:21.:39:25.

ordinary Iraqi there is more hope? I would hope so.

:39:25.:39:29.

Gentleman down here with the grey hair, we haven't heard from you?

:39:29.:39:33.

mustn't forget when it came to the Iraqi invasion we had a lot of

:39:33.:39:37.

people protesting in this country and European countries, and various

:39:37.:39:41.

European Governments ignored the people's views. And the invasion

:39:41.:39:46.

continued. 54%, three days after the war. 54% said the invasion

:39:46.:39:48.

should continue. Somebody we haven't heard from. Gentleman right

:39:48.:39:53.

in the middle, the white shirt. can't believe I have heard this

:39:53.:39:58.

gentleman say it was a triumph for democracy. It was a triumph for

:39:58.:40:04.

obfuscation and deceit. To take up the last point there. Mob rule.

:40:04.:40:08.

Listen, there were 665 cities throughout the world, there were

:40:08.:40:11.

millions of people demonstrating against that war, and they were

:40:11.:40:15.

ignored. That would be mob rule if you listened to people on the

:40:15.:40:19.

streets. At what level would you say you are allowed to go to war,

:40:19.:40:27.

is it 50,000 or 100,000, or 200,000. Legitimate protest is not mob rule?

:40:27.:40:30.

The people who say we should have decided the policy on Iraq

:40:30.:40:34.

depending on how many people out on the streets are the people

:40:34.:40:38.

advocating mob rule. That point can be extended to this feeling, what

:40:38.:40:43.

is that British Muslims constantly feel and how do we avoid offending

:40:43.:40:48.

them. British Muslims are bishop first and all, their foreign policy

:40:48.:40:53.

is not decided by their Muslimness. The Iraq War and consequences were

:40:53.:40:56.

a disaster, but there is a narrative that grips not just the

:40:56.:41:01.

extreme minority, but the silent kol allless sense of the silent

:41:01.:41:06.

majority that some how the west is at war with Muslims. That is what

:41:06.:41:10.

was said, among some, among a minority of younger Muslims, they

:41:10.:41:16.

feel very, very, shall we say empowered by this in a strange way?

:41:16.:41:18.

Before the Iraq War they felt immediately after and before 9/11.

:41:18.:41:22.

Let's not fool ourselves about the narrative that is out there.

:41:22.:41:26.

A couple of more questions. The gentleman with the green jacket and

:41:26.:41:34.

the blue tie? Ten years ago we went to war, the coalition went to wa,

:41:34.:41:38.

we were an illegal war, no resolution. Completely lost the

:41:38.:41:43.

piece. Blair and Bush should be taken to the Hague and prosecuted

:41:43.:41:47.

for war crimes. What do you say to the woman in the back whose family

:41:47.:41:52.

managed to vote in 2005. She says, from her point of view, as an Iraqi

:41:52.:41:54.

woman, her family feels better about it. You don't think it was

:41:55.:41:58.

our responsibility to do that? was certainly a good idea to get

:41:58.:42:03.

rid of Saddam, he was obviously a bad man and committed bad crimes,

:42:03.:42:07.

but we were taken to war on a lie and that is wrong. You go ahead

:42:07.:42:11.

are focusing on British Muslims, but there are other religions in

:42:11.:42:17.

Iraq that are feeling this. For example Iraqi Christians who are

:42:17.:42:22.

leaving Iraq by the droves, it is not just Muslims, I think.

:42:23.:42:26.

I firstly object to your description of the march being a

:42:26.:42:29.

mob, it was a peaceful demonstration. Millions of us

:42:29.:42:32.

marched. And the arguments being presented in Hyde Park, it wasn't

:42:32.:42:36.

just the one there were many others, we were all on them. That is not

:42:36.:42:41.

what I said. You were decribing it as a mob with conotations of

:42:41.:42:45.

violence. I was saying the people who say you should decide your

:42:45.:42:48.

foreign policy by the number of people on the streets are the

:42:48.:42:52.

people who advocate mob rule. We have a parliamentary democracy in

:42:52.:42:55.

this country. I think you have a parliamentary democracy in this

:42:55.:43:00.

country. But a parliamentary democracy cannot just work

:43:00.:43:03.

effectively or with legitimacy inside the confines of the House of

:43:03.:43:08.

Commons. I was one of the million on that march, it was a very

:43:08.:43:12.

peaceful affair. It was a privilege to address the event on the day

:43:12.:43:17.

itself. I would like to think, it comes back to this issue of trust,

:43:17.:43:23.

one of the things parliament's now put in place, British Governments,

:43:23.:43:27.

God forbid have to commit Armed Forces in the future, have got to

:43:27.:43:31.

get the affirmative vote of parliament. Not the way it happened

:43:31.:43:35.

over Iraq. That was a con, an absolute conat the time. How you do

:43:36.:43:40.

that in practice might be more difficult. But the second point is

:43:40.:43:44.

the argumentation of any Prime Minister in the future, they would

:43:44.:43:47.

not get away with what Tony Blair Z he never answered the question that

:43:47.:43:50.

I raised, for months. Which was, and it comes back to what the

:43:50.:43:53.

gentleman says about the absence of the second resolution. If the

:43:53.:43:59.

Americans went in, without a second resolution, where are the

:43:59.:44:02.

circumstances with which his Government wouldn't go with them.

:44:02.:44:06.

To which answer there came none. I don't think a Prime Minister could

:44:06.:44:10.

or would or should ever get away with that in the future. Let's talk

:44:10.:44:15.

about the whole issue of trust. problem with being ignored, is it

:44:15.:44:20.

seemed to set a precedent that us as a society couldn't have a say on

:44:20.:44:26.

how we were representing ourselves on a world stage. As we become

:44:26.:44:29.

increasingly more world aware and citizens of the world, people want

:44:29.:44:34.

to be able to go and say look we are a country that's putting

:44:34.:44:37.

ourselves out there. You can't ignore so many people saying we

:44:37.:44:43.

want our country to go in this direction. That's not democracy.

:44:43.:44:47.

The gentleman two along from this. I was actually thinking, ten years

:44:47.:44:53.

from now, ten years ten as your topic is, what have we learned? Is

:44:53.:44:58.

there a proto-type to a certain extent to say we have learned the

:44:58.:45:02.

way forward? We went into Libya. What have we learned actually? That

:45:02.:45:08.

is a key question I would like to ask? Michael Morpurgo what do you

:45:08.:45:12.

think this has taught us about the kind of society we are? I think it

:45:12.:45:22.
:45:22.:45:23.

is taught me we are not this kind of a country any more. My feeling

:45:23.:45:26.

about us now is represented, and I know this isn't a picture, by the

:45:26.:45:32.

kind of show we put on just before the Olympics. We are rather than

:45:32.:45:37.

eccentric people, rather odd, quite funny, but we don't do this boots

:45:37.:45:41.

on foreign territory any more. That's what seems to me have rubbed

:45:41.:45:47.

the country and made us feel really uncomfortable. Not just about Iraq,

:45:47.:45:50.

but Afghanistan, is we are not this sort of country any more. Unless I

:45:50.:45:54.

have got it all wrong. We will come on and talk about intervention.

:45:54.:45:59.

Let's stick with you on this. How does that make you feel. Do you

:45:59.:46:04.

want to be one of the world's policemen? No. I feel those days

:46:04.:46:09.

are not for you. We are, yes a significant European power. We work

:46:09.:46:11.

in conjunction with other democratic nations to make this

:46:11.:46:16.

world a better place. But we don't do going off on our own with boots.

:46:16.:46:20.

We can't wash our hands of the rest of the world. You can't. You may

:46:20.:46:24.

not be interested in wa, but war is interested in you. Trotsky said

:46:24.:46:29.

that and it is good reason to think that Britain is not there. You walk

:46:29.:46:34.

the streets of the Arab world today the Bafour declaration comes up

:46:34.:46:37.

again and again. Britain has to correct the mistake of the part,

:46:37.:46:42.

and we can't do that without American support. And answering the

:46:42.:46:44.

question that Charles Kennedy asked, how tight will the relationship

:46:44.:46:50.

between the UK and the US, who will it be close to, Russia, China. The

:46:50.:46:54.

UK on its own cannot sustain the global responsibilities that we

:46:54.:46:58.

face in an interdependant world. Let's talk about that. The world is

:46:58.:47:00.

a different place now. The Middle East is convulsed by the Arab

:47:01.:47:05.

Spring, Syria has descended into Civil War, and there is the ever-

:47:05.:47:10.

lingering threat of WMD in Iran. Ten years after Iraq, the American

:47:10.:47:15.

public is now, as Ed Husain said, reluctant to intervene beyond its

:47:15.:47:19.

borders, however Britain since Iraq has intervened in Libya, and more

:47:19.:47:29.
:47:29.:47:34.

recently Mali. In the 1980s Saddam's Iraq went

:47:34.:47:38.

head-to-head with revolutionary Iran, earning the gratitude of

:47:38.:47:42.

western and gulf Arab states alike. They bank rolled his long war with

:47:42.:47:49.

Iran, and an �80 billion shopping spree for weapons.

:47:49.:47:56.

After the 1991 invasion of Kuwait, the US sought to break Iraq's power,

:47:56.:48:02.

culminating in their 2003 invasion. Today Iraq hardly ranks as a

:48:02.:48:07.

regional player. Except in oil production. Iran has gained by

:48:07.:48:13.

default, but it can't control what Iraq does. Instead, that country

:48:13.:48:18.

has become a buffer state, weakened, sandwiched between the forces now

:48:18.:48:25.

defining the Middle East. For a time the US extoled Iraq as a model

:48:25.:48:33.

democracy, an example for the region. When US pressure brought

:48:33.:48:40.

elections, they carried Hamas to power in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon,

:48:40.:48:43.

and religious-based parties in Iraq itself. Far from stablising the

:48:43.:48:47.

Middle East, the invasion may have removed popular fear of tyrants,

:48:47.:48:54.

and empowered intolerance. As Iraq's insurgency progressed, it

:48:54.:48:59.

mutated from an anti-American movement noing Sunni Arabs, into an

:48:59.:49:04.

orgy of anti-Shia violence. Symbolic acts against religious

:49:04.:49:08.

prosessions, pilgrims and mosques, goaded the majority Shia into

:49:09.:49:14.

reaction. America tried to dissuade Iraq's

:49:14.:49:18.

neighbours, particularly Sunni Saudi Arabia, and Shia Iran, from

:49:18.:49:26.

turning Iraq into a proxy religious war. But since US combat troops

:49:26.:49:30.

have left, surrounding countries have intensified their struggle for

:49:30.:49:37.

influence. Recently Syria has seen an inflation of Iraqi-Sunni

:49:37.:49:42.

extremists, skilled in insurgency, taking their fight to the Assad

:49:42.:49:45.

regime. Having triggered the insurgency, America regarded it as

:49:45.:49:50.

a point of honour to overwhelm it. And by 2008 they had brought about

:49:50.:49:56.

a dramatic downturn in violence. But the cost of wielding this

:49:56.:50:02.

sledgehammer was so great, that now further US intervention on this

:50:02.:50:06.

scale seems barely conceivable. Far from cementing the special

:50:06.:50:12.

relationship, as Tony Blair had hoped, what happened in Basra left

:50:12.:50:16.

many Americans critical of British military performian. And back in

:50:16.:50:19.

Westminster, there was a groundswell that in future the UK

:50:19.:50:25.

should be a little more awkward in the dealings with the US.

:50:25.:50:32.

The world ten years on looks quite different. Unitary secular Iraq,

:50:32.:50:38.

Saddam's Iraq crushed. In its place, a caldron of Sunni-Shia rivalry, it

:50:38.:50:41.

is not pretty and it might have happened eventually without outside

:50:41.:50:44.

intervention. But the fores unleashed by the invasion of ten

:50:44.:50:49.

years ago was so ugly, that the US and Britain can barely look them in

:50:49.:50:56.

the face any more. I'm joined by Tim Collins, who led

:50:56.:51:03.

the 1st Battalion The royal Irish Guards in the invasion. Sir

:51:03.:51:07.

Christopher Meyer, UK ambassador to America in the run-up to the war.

:51:07.:51:11.

And Mark Urban, the Newsnight diplomatic editor is here, and we

:51:11.:51:16.

are joined by Hans Blix from Stockholm, the UN weapons inspector

:51:16.:51:21.

in Iraq just before the invasion. Tim Collins, from your experience

:51:21.:51:28.

of Iraq, what can we learn about future adventures? Was the Royal

:51:28.:51:32.

Royal Irish scam regiment, by the way. We can learn in a strange way

:51:32.:51:37.

that our forefathers learned after the Boer war is that our military

:51:37.:51:42.

needs to be fit for purpose. I think that the leadership and the

:51:42.:51:46.

quiping of the British army was woeful -- equipping of the British

:51:46.:51:52.

army was woeful at the time of intervention when we led the

:51:52.:51:55.

invasion. By and large we have learned that getting involved in

:51:55.:51:59.

other people's affairs isn't as simple as we thought. I think it is

:51:59.:52:02.

a reluctance to get involved in Syria as a result. And certainly

:52:02.:52:06.

our intervention in Libya of very measured as a result.

:52:06.:52:09.

Christopher Meyer, you heard Tony Blair saying there, this is a

:52:09.:52:12.

generation of struggle and he made it clear that he thinks that we

:52:12.:52:18.

have a role in Syria and maybe in Iran, maybe not boots on the ground

:52:18.:52:21.

or whatever. But do you think that is our place now. Do you think that

:52:22.:52:27.

we were damaged by the Iraq business to the extent that can we

:52:27.:52:30.

even do it? Morally and physically, do we have the capability to go in?

:52:30.:52:35.

Of course we are damaged by the Iraq intervention. Not least

:52:35.:52:40.

because we left Iraq in rather humiliating circumstances, when we

:52:40.:52:44.

withdrew from Basra. That is not a God precedent. Having said that, we

:52:44.:52:49.

are still, like it or not, a permanent member of the UN Security

:52:49.:52:53.

Council. With that comes certain responsibilities. And the challenge

:52:53.:52:58.

of the age is when to intervene, and when to stay out. I have to say,

:52:58.:53:06.

if I may, that Iraq and Afghanistan, and Sierra Leone, and others, don't

:53:06.:53:10.

give us a universal template to tell us what to do. No, and the

:53:10.:53:14.

other thaiing that doesn't give us a universal template is the idea of

:53:14.:53:18.

UN resolution, we have been there without UN resolutions, we have we

:53:18.:53:23.

were m in Kosovo, for example. Is - - we were in Kosovo, for example.

:53:23.:53:29.

Is this through the UN council, we will never get agreement on Syria?

:53:29.:53:33.

Even if we did get agreement, I'm not sure that is the place to take

:53:33.:53:37.

boots on the ground. Because you will then get caught in the middle

:53:37.:53:42.

of another bloody Civil War, where is exactly we don't belong. Hans

:53:42.:53:45.

Blix, joining us from Stockholm. You were the senior weapons

:53:45.:53:50.

inspector, you were tasked with looking for and finding WMD. We are

:53:50.:53:54.

in a position now where Iran may well be on its way to having WMD,

:53:54.:53:59.

but you know, is any country now going to go to war on the basis of

:53:59.:54:06.

intelligence after what happened in Iraq? I hope not. I think that the

:54:06.:54:11.

starting of the Iraq War was a tragic and terrible mistake. I

:54:11.:54:15.

think Mr Blair probably felt that there was a special responsibility

:54:15.:54:19.

of the great powers, members of the Security Council, and he had been

:54:19.:54:24.

encouraged by the successes he saw in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, but he

:54:24.:54:27.

didn't care or feel the need to have an approval of the Security

:54:27.:54:33.

Council. The US was pretty high on its hyperpower that had developed

:54:33.:54:39.

as the lone superpower in the 1990. They wanted to take further revenge

:54:39.:54:46.

on the 9/11 in Afghanistan. They maintained then that they would

:54:46.:54:50.

weed out the weapons of mass destruction and that they would

:54:50.:54:55.

also take out Al-Qaeda. These were contention that is didn't really

:54:55.:55:01.

stand up. They were failures. me, sorry to interrupt, do you

:55:01.:55:07.

think the unintended consequence of what has happened in Iraq has been

:55:07.:55:14.

the inexorable rise of Iran? think the lack of Security Council

:55:14.:55:17.

approval of the action in Iraq should have stopped them from doing

:55:17.:55:22.

it. I think that it is perplexing that in the current situation there

:55:22.:55:26.

is much talk about going to war with Iran, when it is perfectly

:55:26.:55:30.

clear that Iran has not committed an aggression and has not a track

:55:30.:55:33.

record of aggression. That certainly Security Council is not

:55:33.:55:37.

going to approve any act against Iraq.

:55:37.:55:42.

Do you think the idea of exporting democracy at the end of a barrel of

:55:42.:55:46.

the gun has gone now for Britain? You can say that it wasn't really

:55:46.:55:51.

there at the start. It was a very small number of people in the US

:55:51.:55:54.

policy system who really thought that putting democracy into Iraq

:55:54.:56:01.

was really a central war aim. 2003/04/05 there was the high

:56:01.:56:06.

summer of that idea. Since then it was thoroughly discredited. Very

:56:06.:56:09.

few people would argue that invading and taking democracy in on

:56:09.:56:14.

a tang is a viable approach. In any situation, from backing peaceful

:56:14.:56:19.

protests in Tahrir Square, to the Libyan scenario and any future

:56:19.:56:22.

scenario, what else do western Governments say they want. They

:56:22.:56:27.

don't have another language except that of democracy. Simon Brown you

:56:28.:56:31.

went into Iraq not once or twice, wounded both times, very seriously.

:56:31.:56:35.

What do you say, you went in as a soldier doing his job. Do you think

:56:35.:56:39.

it is our place to intervene. Do you think we have a moral duty to

:56:39.:56:44.

intervene in the world? Morally we put ourselves in a position where

:56:44.:56:48.

we are going to be involved by being part ofate and the UN. As a

:56:48.:56:52.

soldier, speaking personally as a soldier, I went to Kosovo and

:56:52.:56:57.

cleaned up after going in too late. I personally would like to go in

:56:57.:57:01.

early and prevent death, than going in late and clean up death.

:57:01.:57:05.

think that has to be a big policy decision that, either soft power,

:57:05.:57:08.

not necessarily with boots on the ground, but we have to change a

:57:08.:57:12.

different way? We have to learn the right timing to go in and make the

:57:12.:57:20.

proper decisions. Isn't the problem here, that one of the other

:57:20.:57:23.

unintended consequences is there isn't an American voter now who

:57:23.:57:28.

would vote to go in in to Syria with bombs, boots or to Iran?

:57:28.:57:32.

think that is right. Both in America and Britain, war of all

:57:32.:57:36.

kinds has become very unpopular. We are weaker for it. Because there

:57:36.:57:40.

are case on both humanitarian grounds, and sometimes even

:57:40.:57:43.

democracy grounds, when we might want to. Because these are our

:57:43.:57:47.

values. There was an extraordinary interview you had with Tony Blair,

:57:47.:57:51.

he made marvellously, fluently, the humanitarian case for going in p

:57:51.:57:56.

and even a bit the democratic case, both of them I feel are strong ones,

:57:56.:57:59.

he this just happen not at all to be the arguments he made at the

:57:59.:58:02.

time. APPLAUSE

:58:02.:58:07.

From your point of view, when can intervention work, is it short and

:58:07.:58:11.

sharp, or as Simon is saying, has it got to be ahead of the game?

:58:11.:58:17.

think we the tragedy of Iraq was that it undermined the nation and

:58:17.:58:21.

discredited the notion of humanitarian intervention, which is

:58:21.:58:27.

about going in to prevent violation of human rights, genocide. It is

:58:27.:58:33.

not about war fighting, it is about protecting people on the ground. At

:58:33.:58:39.

the time of Bosnia there was massive civil society pressure to

:58:39.:58:42.

protect people from "ethnic cleansing". That doesn't exist now

:58:42.:58:47.

today in Syria, and I think it is not because Syria is an Arab

:58:47.:58:51.

country, it is because of the experience of Iraq. Is that your

:58:51.:59:00.

view? I think there is no doubt about it. We saw the Free Libyans

:59:00.:59:04.

pulling out of the discussions in Rome and other place, they were

:59:05.:59:08.

simply being abandoned. You are right, they are gun shy becoming

:59:08.:59:11.

involved where we should be. There has to be balance somewhere along

:59:11.:59:18.

the line. You are the politician, you are going to have to take a

:59:18.:59:21.

decision about backing European intervention, what do you think?

:59:21.:59:24.

There is no template to intervention. Mark asked the right

:59:24.:59:27.

question w what sort of relationship do we want with the

:59:27.:59:33.

countries? The moment you know, the moment you remove a dictator the

:59:33.:59:39.

vacuum is filled with theocracy. It has taken us in the UK 1730 years

:59:39.:59:44.

to go from the Magna Carta to 1928 where our democracy became healthy

:59:44.:59:47.

and women got the vote. We have to take the long view. We have to

:59:47.:59:51.

build relationships and support true democrats in those countries.

:59:51.:59:55.

Is it about soft power, is it about getting in ahead of the game?

:59:55.:59:58.

about soft power as well as hard power. How you use it. One of the

:59:58.:00:03.

things that has gone wrong is that intervention, and humanitarian

:00:03.:00:07.

intervention, has become plulted by the concept of nation build --

:00:07.:00:10.

polluted by the concept of nation building. Nation build something

:00:10.:00:16.

trying to impose on a foreign culture your own concepts of

:00:16.:00:19.

democracy. We mustn't confuse democracy with Westminster

:00:19.:00:22.

democracy or Washington capital democracy, because it is different

:00:22.:00:25.

in every country. And one of the things that has gone wrong in

:00:25.:00:29.

Afghanistan, for example, is to try to impose on a completely alien

:00:29.:00:33.

culture, our own norms and precepts. APPLAUSE

:00:33.:00:37.

Very briefly Hans Blix, do you think there is a role to intervene

:00:37.:00:42.

in other countries? Not necessarily boots on the ground, but promoting

:00:42.:00:46.

change, promoting democracy? think there is a presumtiousness

:00:47.:00:50.

that the countries like the UK, or the US can take that decision. But

:00:50.:00:55.

the UN actually has adopted something called the right to

:00:55.:00:59.

protect, the R 2. P, which will enable the United Nations to

:00:59.:01:04.

intervene. It presupposes that the Security Council gives its approval.

:01:04.:01:07.

That is what was missing in the case of Iraq. They could not have

:01:07.:01:10.

the approval, and they should not have it. It was to the merit of the

:01:10.:01:14.

Security Council that they didn't give T we need that in the future.

:01:14.:01:19.

It is not interventionists are excluded, but there should be a

:01:19.:01:22.

legitimisation of it by the Security Council. Woman in green at

:01:22.:01:27.

the back, a comment? I would like to ask you how do you build up the

:01:27.:01:30.

trust between intervention of knowing when you should actually go

:01:30.:01:33.

into war and actually build up the trust between the public and the

:01:33.:01:41.

politicians. Just a comment? In 2006 Tony Blair

:01:41.:01:45.

actually admitted that he was asking higher powers for advice,

:01:45.:01:50.

that he was giving prayers for his decisions in this. You would think

:01:50.:01:55.

in the 21st century that we wouldn't rely upon superstition,

:01:55.:01:59.

and there would be a more quantitative and qualitative way in

:01:59.:02:03.

making these decision. A completely unscientific audience, I will ask

:02:03.:02:07.

you now about intervention. Whether you believe that the UK has a role

:02:07.:02:11.

in intervening in other countries, where there are huge problems, in

:02:11.:02:13.

order perhaps to promote democracy, but certainly to promote peace.

:02:13.:02:18.

Those of you who think first of all that Britain still has a role,

:02:18.:02:26.

please raise your hands? Those who don't? I would say that the ayes

:02:26.:02:33.

have it, just, not completely. One abstainer in the middle! Thank you

:02:34.:02:38.

very much, thank you to my audience and panellist to join us for the

:02:38.:02:42.

Newsnight special, until tomorrow night a very good night from us

:02:42.:02:52.
:02:52.:03:15.

Hello there, it is frosty again in Scotland. Freezing fog patches,

:03:15.:03:19.

especially through the central lowlands, not as cold by the

:03:19.:03:21.

morning in Northern Ireland as the cloud moves in. Across Scotland we

:03:21.:03:24.

will see sunshine, that will develop in northern England as the

:03:24.:03:29.

dryer and brighter weather moves southwards. A much better day to

:03:29.:03:33.

come in northern England. Feeling pleasant in the sunshine.

:03:33.:03:37.

Eventually getting sunshine through much of East Anglia. The southern

:03:37.:03:41.

counties more of a struggle to blow the cloud awa. It will stay cloudy,

:03:41.:03:46.

not as damp and drizzley as it is now. The cloud won't be as either.

:03:46.:03:49.

Wales will be improving in the afternoon, particularly North Wales.

:03:49.:03:52.

Northern Ireland a bit of a change here. We are expecting more cloud

:03:52.:03:56.

than we had today. It will feel quite chilly, I suspect. Scotland,

:03:56.:04:00.

some changes into the west and the North West in particular. It won't

:04:00.:04:04.

be quite as warm as it was today. Away from the North West and

:04:04.:04:09.

Northern Ireland we should get a good deal of sunshine once again.

:04:09.:04:12.

Sunshine in Inverness, but in the change on Thursday as more cloud

:04:12.:04:15.

moves in here. Further south we have the cloud on Wednesday. But

:04:15.:04:18.

the cloud should be thinner on Thursday. So a better chance of

:04:19.:04:21.

seeing some sunshine. A change of fortunes, if you like on Thursday.

:04:21.:04:26.

It will be a colder start for England and Wales, with frost and

:04:26.:04:30.

Kirsty Wark presents a special programme with a studio audience, looking at how Iraq and the world changed following the war ten years ago.


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