27/02/2013 Newsnight


27/02/2013

Last day of campaigning for the Eastleigh by-election, has the euro crisis been resurrected by Italy's inconclusive election? Plus Tony Blair proposes intervention in Syria.


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Tonight, on the eve of the by- election in Eastleigh, our -- are

:00:13.:00:22.

Liberal Democrats speeding towards With the near full moon. Lib Dems

:00:22.:00:25.

are quietly confident they will retain the seat. UKIP could

:00:25.:00:30.

listened up being the big story tomorrow.

:00:30.:00:33.

Also tonight, thought the eurocrisis was dead and buried,

:00:33.:00:37.

well with no clear winner in Italy's election, it is back on its

:00:37.:00:40.

feet. Paul Mason will have graphs and zombies.

:00:40.:00:45.

The second part of our interview with Tony Blair, ten years after

:00:45.:00:50.

the Iraq invasion. He pushes for intervention in Syria, and gives

:00:50.:00:53.

the UN Security Council short shrift. There are things we could

:00:53.:00:58.

be doing to help change the balance of power in the struggle. My

:00:58.:01:02.

anxiety is we are about to learn again the lessons of the

:01:02.:01:06.

consequences of non-intervention. You may have thought you already

:01:06.:01:12.

knew this, new research suggests there is a direct link between

:01:12.:01:21.

sugar and diabetes. We hope you like your science sweet. Good

:01:21.:01:27.

evening, the trigger for the Eastleigh by-election may have been

:01:27.:01:34.

the unedifying scenes of Chris Huhne pleading guilty and his wife

:01:34.:01:39.

taking his speeding points. But the allegations made against former

:01:39.:01:43.

chief executive, Lord Rennard, allegations he vehemently denies

:01:43.:01:47.

and dominating the headlines in the last few days. Can the party hold

:01:47.:01:52.

the seat despite it all. Our political he had has been chasing

:01:52.:01:57.

around in Eastleigh on a frenetic day of last-day campaigning.

:01:57.:02:04.

# War what is it good for # Absolutely nothing

:02:04.:02:10.

Not the Wild West, but wild Eastleigh. How are you doing gents.

:02:10.:02:13.

The hoopla unfurling down the length of this high street is for

:02:13.:02:17.

the election of a new MP all right. But it is a yardstick too of how

:02:17.:02:21.

the three parties may fare in the big one. The 2015 general election.

:02:21.:02:25.

The Conservatives are on the hunt for votes. It is teatime in a truck

:02:25.:02:28.

depot. Since the allegations about Lord

:02:28.:02:32.

Rennard emerged, the race has got tighter and the Tories have got

:02:32.:02:37.

busier. Lib Dems sources report an inflation of Conservatives in this

:02:37.:02:42.

area, as they sense vulnerability in the Lib Dems. Behind both of

:02:42.:02:46.

them, UKIP is rising up fast. The Tories need to grab place like

:02:46.:02:50.

Eastleigh off the Lib Dems, but the votes of a few truckers wouldn't go

:02:50.:02:58.

amiss. Thatcher won the blue collar vote in 1979, Blair in 1997,

:02:58.:03:01.

Cameron has bent yet persuaded them. We are playing to win. We want to

:03:01.:03:06.

win this by-election, it is a very important by-election. I have

:03:06.:03:12.

learned, for a long time the BBC had lost a by-election, and the

:03:12.:03:17.

electorate said I had won it, not to take elections for granted.

:03:17.:03:23.

Labour came second here in the 1994 by-election, but it is fighting not

:03:23.:03:30.

to be pushed into fourth place by UKIP. Labour gambled on a celebrity

:03:30.:03:34.

candidate, but was he the right celebrity in Eastleigh.

:03:34.:03:40.

REPORTER: Do you know what John's day job is? A writer. There you are.

:03:40.:03:43.

The party came second in the 1994 by-election, but it is fighting not

:03:43.:03:47.

to be pushed into fourth by UKIP. We are the opposition and we want

:03:47.:03:50.

to become the Government. Part of that strategy is showing that we

:03:50.:03:53.

are determined to work not just in one part of the country, where we

:03:53.:03:57.

have been winning by-election, but in every part of the country.

:03:57.:04:02.

think they could do well, possibly come first, maybe beat the Tories

:04:02.:04:06.

to second. Nigel Farage looks like he's doing the crossword here, but

:04:06.:04:08.

he's analysing polling figure, they have put immigration front and

:04:09.:04:13.

centre. Right from the very start we have

:04:13.:04:17.

said we are the party that believes in a sensible, controlled approach

:04:17.:04:20.

to immigration. Like Australia. We want good migrants to come to

:04:20.:04:26.

Britain. We do not want foreign criminal gangs coming to Britain.

:04:26.:04:30.

I'm afraid, which ever way you look at it, Romania and Bulgaria are

:04:30.:04:34.

countries plaged with crime. And we do not want some of those people to

:04:34.:04:38.

have open access to this country. What have students made of this by-

:04:38.:04:43.

election, how might they vote? Tories? Why? Because I think they

:04:43.:04:48.

are going to get Van Outen of debt and put this country back in the

:04:48.:04:54.

economic climate. Definitely Lib Dem. Why? Because they have done a

:04:54.:04:58.

lot for eastly there is the stuff with Huhne and stuff, you can't

:04:58.:05:03.

deny they have improved the area vastly. Why does UKIP look like it

:05:03.:05:13.
:05:13.:05:13.

is doing so well? I am' sur -- surprised -- I'm surprised. On

:05:13.:05:16.

their posters it is them saying we are different. Everyone wants

:05:16.:05:19.

somebody doing something, they don't care what they do. Over to

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the deferpbsd of this seat, the Liberal Democrats. -- defenders of

:05:24.:05:29.

this seat, the Liberal Democrats. You know very well that I'm in a

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decent, honourable team player, and I do what the thought police tell

:05:32.:05:39.

me to do. I will go round the corner. I will go round the corner

:05:39.:05:44.

and ondo some canvasing. You can only see ten activists now, but

:05:44.:05:46.

around the constituency there is hundreds. The Liberal Democrats

:05:46.:05:50.

think if they hold tight to Eastleigh they can hold tight to

:05:50.:05:53.

the general election strategy until 20 15. That is until the Rennard

:05:53.:05:57.

allegations. Does your party have a problem with women? My answer to

:05:57.:06:04.

that is straight forward, no. women are saying that they do?

:06:04.:06:06.

That's an issue for the inquiry. We have a national record, we have a

:06:07.:06:10.

local record to stand on. I think that stands us in very good stead

:06:10.:06:15.

for Thursday. We are not complacent or taking it for granted. We have

:06:15.:06:21.

an outstanding candidate what implications there are for the

:06:22.:06:24.

general election is interesting but a discussion for another time.

:06:24.:06:29.

These people are past their sell- by-date, they must not be voted

:06:29.:06:38.

into power to reek further havoc on the community. UKIP could do

:06:38.:06:42.

surprisingly well, leaving the two largest political parties, the

:06:42.:06:47.

Tories and Labour to do soul searching. If the Pope joins the

:06:47.:06:50.

region we will join you. He will join us, make it sooner rather than

:06:50.:06:54.

later. But the greatest prize may be to the people of Eastleigh,

:06:54.:07:02.

peace, at last. Here is the list of all the canned

:07:02.:07:06.

date -- candidates standing in the by-election tomorrow, all 14 of

:07:06.:07:10.

them. We go to Eastleigh now. How high stakes is this for all the

:07:10.:07:13.

parties. The Liberal Democrats must be desperate for it to be over?

:07:13.:07:17.

They wanted it to be a three-week by-election because they knew they

:07:17.:07:21.

could do a sprint, but they probably couldn't do a marathon.

:07:21.:07:24.

Tomorrow we think they probably will fall over the finishing line,

:07:24.:07:28.

keeping this seat. They have been pouring every resource they can

:07:28.:07:33.

into it, so much so that last week when it was half time they brought

:07:33.:07:37.

lots of students down. The allegations against Lord Rennard

:07:37.:07:39.

haven't really played with the voters. I would struggle to tell

:07:39.:07:43.

you one mentioned it to me today, and we have been around a lot. The

:07:43.:07:48.

way it has played is you have the other parties scenting blood, and

:07:48.:07:52.

sending more people down than they might otherwise have done, thinking

:07:52.:07:54.

there might possibly be vulnerability there. If it had gone

:07:54.:08:00.

on longer than it has done, they may have been right. One very

:08:00.:08:04.

senior Liberal Democrat let it be known today f it was one more week

:08:04.:08:08.

to this by-election, they think UKIP would pip it. By-elections are

:08:08.:08:10.

famously about local issues, on that basis the Tories and Labour

:08:10.:08:15.

must be kicking themselves for not having done a lot of the ground

:08:15.:08:19.

work earlier? You saw in our package, Nigel Farage just to

:08:19.:08:21.

theing up numbers. He believes the polling companies have

:08:21.:08:26.

underestimated them, and he showed us all his little biro numbers. He

:08:26.:08:30.

thinks they could come in at 27.5 points, that would give the Tories

:08:30.:08:34.

a massive headache. People I have spoken to in the Conservative Party

:08:34.:08:37.

today agree with him, that it is looking like it could be close

:08:37.:08:43.

between themselves and UKIP for that prized second position. The

:08:43.:08:48.

problem would then be, David Cameron, bet a lot on a huge speech

:08:48.:08:51.

about Europe, a Europe speech that was supposed to stem a lot of this

:08:51.:08:55.

anger, and it would become apparent this time tomorrow or two days,

:08:55.:08:59.

that hadn't worked. Equally for Labour, you saw in the package,

:08:59.:09:05.

Douglas Alexander saying, far from this being Labour's 258th target

:09:06.:09:12.

seat, very down low on the list, but this place matters to Ed

:09:12.:09:16.

Miliband's one-nation Labour Party. If they come fourth it isn't great

:09:16.:09:21.

for them. In a moment, the economic nightmare

:09:21.:09:26.

borne of Italy's political uncertainty. And part two of our

:09:26.:09:30.

interview with Tony Blair ten years after the invasion of Iraq. You get

:09:30.:09:34.

rid of dictators like Saddam, and confront Iran and hope there is

:09:34.:09:39.

change there too. Italy is in a parlour state, without a Government

:09:39.:09:43.

or the early prospect of one forming, following the country's

:09:43.:09:45.

inconclusive general election. As the horse trading gets under way in

:09:45.:09:50.

the attempt to form a working administration, the politicians are

:09:50.:09:52.

fiddling while the economy is burning. It is spreading like a

:09:52.:10:01.

bushfire through the eurozone. Here is our Economics Editor, Paul Mason.

:10:01.:10:11.
:10:11.:10:11.

It was dead and buried, we thought. But now the eurocrisis is back,

:10:11.:10:17.

little a cheesey film dell'orrore, that is Italian for horror movie.

:10:17.:10:23.

It has people biting their knuckles all across Europe.

:10:23.:10:26.

As in most horror films, there is an old man who doesn't get it.

:10:26.:10:30.

Mario Monti, the unelected Prime Minister who ran the country as a

:10:30.:10:35.

technocrat. He polled just over 10% and is finished. Now, a massive

:10:35.:10:40.

plot inflection. This man, Beppe Grillo, the stand-up comedian,

:10:40.:10:44.

whose brand-new party scored more than 25%, and holds the balance of

:10:44.:10:53.

power. In -- TRANSLATION: From all this rage we created hope. There

:10:53.:10:56.

was no hope, it was anger without hope. It is anger without hope that

:10:56.:11:00.

creates violence. But anger with hope is a different kind of anger.

:11:00.:11:04.

We are containing the rage, so they should thank me. It is a democratic

:11:04.:11:11.

rage that is needed to go forward. With the rise of the Five Stars

:11:11.:11:15.

Party, there is political deadlock. Both traditional bloc, centre left

:11:16.:11:22.

and right, made noises against austerity. But Grillo's party made

:11:22.:11:26.

low noises against t and people expect him to force through change.

:11:27.:11:31.

We are looking at party movement that has huge support among young

:11:31.:11:34.

voters. There is clearly a generational confrontation going on.

:11:35.:11:38.

Young voters are clearly on Grillo's side. And now clearly that

:11:38.:11:42.

they have so huge support of so many MPs and senators, that

:11:42.:11:46.

expectations are running high. Because Grillo has promised to open

:11:46.:11:50.

up the Italian parliament like a tin of tuna, they want more

:11:50.:11:53.

transparency andless bureaucracy. They want more efficient

:11:53.:11:58.

politicians, less perks, lower salaries. They want a whole lot of

:11:58.:12:03.

things from Beppe Grillo and his movement. Mr Grillo himself can't

:12:03.:12:06.

enter parliament due to a manslaughter conviction after a

:12:06.:12:11.

fatal car crash. The Italian election has gone off script. Last

:12:11.:12:16.

summer the European Central Bank put the dampers on the crisis by

:12:16.:12:20.

offering to buy unlimited amounts of Italian and Spanish debt. We

:12:20.:12:25.

called it then the "virtual bail out", because they didn't need to

:12:25.:12:28.

do anything. But Italian voters seemed to have concluded that if

:12:28.:12:33.

the bookie jar is bottomless, better to vote for the people who

:12:33.:12:37.

say, dip into it some more. Here is the result. Italy's bond yield, its

:12:37.:12:42.

cost of Government borrowing, which had fallen sharply after the ECB's

:12:42.:12:46.

move, last summer, spiked up towards 5%, moving more in day than

:12:46.:12:50.

it normal low would in a year. If this goes further, and drags

:12:50.:12:55.

Spain up as well, the ECB may actually have to start buying the

:12:55.:12:59.

bonds. Italy accounts for about 17% of the

:12:59.:13:02.

eurozone's GDP. It is huge. It is a very big economy, it is one of the

:13:02.:13:06.

founding members of the eurozone. So it is one thing when Greece

:13:06.:13:11.

looks a little bit shaky, and has some political instability. The

:13:11.:13:14.

eurozone could probably have survived that, it cannot survive it

:13:14.:13:19.

if Italy is going to be locked out of the bond markets. And also to

:13:19.:13:22.

need a bail out if it doesn't have a Government to ask for one. We

:13:22.:13:28.

could be looking at an Italian default, that is worst case

:13:28.:13:32.

scenario and not the base case, but it is a risk now, where investors

:13:32.:13:34.

didn't think it was for the last couple of months. That is a really

:13:35.:13:38.

big deal. Europe does not need a rerun of the crisis, growth is set

:13:38.:13:43.

to be very low this year. Low in France, low in Germany, and the

:13:43.:13:48.

once-booming netherlands predicted to be in recession all year. Enter

:13:48.:13:51.

Bersani by-election the smart money is for this man, the centre left

:13:51.:13:56.

leader, to form a Government with Grillo's party offering support on

:13:56.:14:00.

a case-by-base basis. But that kind of Government moves slowly, and the

:14:00.:14:04.

markets can move fast. Tonight Silvio Berlusconi, who still is

:14:04.:14:08.

clinging on for a sequel, issued this video message to his

:14:09.:14:14.

supporters. TRANSLATION: I wish to hug everyone, one by one, to thank

:14:14.:14:17.

them for renewing their faith in me and our political mission. Backing

:14:17.:14:21.

our wish to defend the family businesses and our love for freedom

:14:21.:14:30.

and Italy. To some, being hugged by Berlusconi would itself be a

:14:30.:14:36.

horrifying thought. The problem with the great euro-horror movie is

:14:36.:14:45.

everyone can hear you scream. Just before we came on air, I spoke to

:14:45.:14:49.

the vice secretary of Pier Luigi Bersani's democratic party. I began

:14:49.:14:53.

by asking him whether he thought the democrats could make a

:14:53.:14:59.

coalition deal with Berlusconi, or the Five Star movement? We will do

:14:59.:15:07.

our best to avoid economic and economic problems in Italy. For

:15:08.:15:13.

that we need a Government, the only way to do that now is to form a

:15:13.:15:18.

minority Government. We ask the other Members of Parliament to

:15:18.:15:26.

allow our Government to start. We think it would be now impossible to

:15:26.:15:31.

form a coalition Government with Berlusconi, or a coalition

:15:31.:15:35.

Government with Grillo, for different reasons. With Berlusconi

:15:36.:15:40.

because Berlusconi is our main opponent. With Grillo, because

:15:40.:15:45.

Grillo is not a party, he's not a traditional party, he's a movement.

:15:45.:15:53.

With them, maybe, we can be able to reach agreement, issue by issue.

:15:53.:15:56.

The main problem is the beginning of the new Government. The birth of

:15:56.:16:03.

the new Government. But, Mr Grillo thinks that you will do a deal with

:16:03.:16:09.

Berlusconi. If Grillo won't do a deal with you, in order to get some

:16:09.:16:18.

stability, would you do a deal with Berlusconi? We know that today is

:16:18.:16:22.

impossible to form a coalition Government as the one you have in

:16:22.:16:30.

the UK, or the one they have in Germany. So we will try to form

:16:30.:16:36.

this minority Government, and to try to reach votes in parliament.

:16:36.:16:42.

Of course, it is weak and very difficult as a situation, but it is

:16:42.:16:49.

the only way to avoid, for Italy chaos. And we ask for everybody

:16:49.:16:55.

taking his responsibility for what concerns our responsibility. We

:16:55.:17:02.

think that on the economy, Europe and institutional changes, it is

:17:02.:17:07.

possible to have in the next months important reforms. We will try all

:17:07.:17:13.

our best to reach these reforms, in parliament, with the votes of our

:17:13.:17:19.

Members of Parliament. What if you fail? What if you can't do a deal?

:17:19.:17:27.

We are very worried about the risk of economic chaos. We very much

:17:27.:17:33.

worry about the risk of exporting the virus of instability in the

:17:33.:17:39.

rest of the eurozone. Of course the big risk is that without a

:17:39.:17:47.

Government the rising of interest rates will create a situation of

:17:47.:17:52.

instability and this instability can be exported into the rest of

:17:52.:17:57.

the eurozone. This is why we will do all our best to form a

:17:57.:18:02.

Government. How would you describe Silvio Berlusconi, then? Berlusconi

:18:02.:18:10.

is our main opponent. He's our main opponent. He did a lot of mistakes

:18:10.:18:18.

for the country. Of course we have to avoid having new elections

:18:18.:18:27.

immediately after these elections. Because the populistic majority

:18:27.:18:30.

with Berlusconi or Grillo will create a very negative situation

:18:30.:18:36.

for the country. This is why we need to avoid new elections. We

:18:36.:18:46.

need to have a Government today. Thank you very much for joining us.

:18:46.:18:52.

I'm joined now from Rome by a senator in Berlusconi's People of

:18:52.:19:00.

Freedom Party. First of all, you heard Mr Letta saying there that

:19:01.:19:04.

chaos is looming ahead. There will be no coalition, but would you

:19:04.:19:11.

support the democratic party in a minority Government? Well, I'm glad

:19:11.:19:14.

that Mr Letta changed his mind. He was the very first to say that we

:19:15.:19:19.

should go to new elections when he saw the first results. Then I'm

:19:19.:19:24.

glad that he changed his mind. Today Berlusconi made a very

:19:24.:19:28.

specific proposal there, the same that he made during the electoral

:19:28.:19:33.

campaign. Of course we know that we can't enforce all those reforms

:19:33.:19:37.

that we would like to have, but we would like to have some answers

:19:37.:19:42.

about issues. They cannot ask our support, attacking us all the time,

:19:42.:19:47.

and not telling us what they want us to support. What they are going

:19:47.:19:52.

to do for the Italian economy. We just hear them speaking lots of

:19:53.:19:58.

parties, laws that are in the interests of the politicians and

:19:58.:20:03.

they are not saying nothing to address the economic crisis. We

:20:03.:20:10.

have proposals about the tax rebate for those who are there. It is too

:20:10.:20:16.

late for you to do that. The only way to get stability. The only way

:20:16.:20:19.

to get stability is to get a Government on the table quickly. If

:20:19.:20:23.

it means supporting democratic parties and minority Government?

:20:23.:20:27.

You are saying it is too late. Thank you for interrupting me. But

:20:27.:20:31.

you are saying it is too late. Too late for what? We had the results

:20:31.:20:34.

yesterday. What, we should have done those proposals before the

:20:34.:20:38.

elections? We didn't know the results yet. I don't know why you

:20:38.:20:42.

are telling me that it is too late. It is not too late for Mr

:20:42.:20:46.

Berlusconi, given that it's, people would say it is the behaviour of Mr

:20:46.:20:50.

Berlusconi which has led to the uprising of people like Beppe

:20:50.:20:55.

Grillo, because the disaffection of the political system has grown so

:20:55.:20:59.

great? Well, by the way I can't hear you very well. I understand

:20:59.:21:04.

that you are saying that it is Berlusconi's fault that Grillo took

:21:04.:21:10.

all those votes. Actually Grillo has had the support of many medias,

:21:10.:21:15.

because they thought that Grillo would take away votes from

:21:15.:21:21.

Berlusconi. Instead Grillo is taking away votes also from the

:21:21.:21:29.

left party. This is as a result of a propaganda war against Berlusconi,

:21:29.:21:33.

with the judiciary and the populisim of Grillo and any

:21:33.:21:37.

organisations, the result is the democratic party is trying to court

:21:37.:21:43.

Mr Grillo, and Mr Grillo has refused, rejected that attempt.

:21:43.:21:48.

Just calling Bersani a zombie, and a walking dead man, and a failure.

:21:48.:21:53.

So I don't think that you can blame Berlusconi for all that what

:21:54.:21:57.

happened in Italy. What happens next? We have a situation in the

:21:57.:22:00.

economy where people are talking about the virus that actually

:22:00.:22:04.

Italy's problems are bad enough for the Italian people, economic

:22:04.:22:11.

problems, but they will become economic problems for the eurozone?

:22:11.:22:15.

Sure this is why Berlusconi, he already did that yesterday, not

:22:15.:22:20.

personally him, but through some aides. But today he personally

:22:20.:22:24.

offered to anyone who was, of course Bersani at first, of course,

:22:24.:22:29.

because he has the majority at the House. He offered the collaboration

:22:29.:22:35.

for all those who want to have a tax rebate spending cuts to revive

:22:35.:22:41.

the economy and institutional reforms. Now we want answers about

:22:41.:22:43.

issues, they can't ask just to have our support without telling

:22:43.:22:49.

anything about what they are going to do. And after they have attacked

:22:49.:22:54.

us, and just proposing something that it is absolutely indifferent

:22:54.:22:58.

to the economic crisis that won't create any jobs, and won't help the

:22:58.:23:02.

country. If they are changing their mind that's good, we are ready to

:23:02.:23:07.

take our responsibility. But which can't just say, yes, because they

:23:07.:23:13.

insult us and then they ask us for our support.

:23:13.:23:17.

In the run up to the 10th anniversary of the Iraq invasion,

:23:17.:23:20.

Newsnight has conducted a long interview with Tony Blair. Re-

:23:20.:23:24.

examining the decisions he made and the impact that has had on trust

:23:24.:23:28.

between politicians and the people. Part of that interview was included

:23:28.:23:32.

in our special debate on Iraq last night. Tonight, here's a second

:23:32.:23:35.

part. In which the former Prime Minister, who is a Special Envoy to

:23:35.:23:40.

the Middle East, talks about the dangers supposed by Syria and Iran.

:23:40.:23:43.

We began, however, by discussing the role of intelligence leading up

:23:43.:23:53.
:23:53.:23:54.

to the Iraq War. When was the moment that you knew

:23:54.:23:59.

that there were no weapons of mass destruction? The moment that we

:23:59.:24:02.

knew that the intelligence was wrong was obviously when the Iraq

:24:02.:24:04.

Survey Group finally reported. It is very important that people

:24:04.:24:09.

understand what they did report and what they didn't. Their eventual

:24:09.:24:14.

findings were, yes he had put his programme into abeyance, but he

:24:14.:24:18.

retained the intent and expertise. I have no doubt at all, that had we

:24:18.:24:21.

backed off he would have been back to it again. You couldn't go to war

:24:22.:24:27.

on an intention. The only way you could invade Iraq was if you were

:24:27.:24:30.

absolutely certain. The only legal basis that he certainly had WMD,

:24:30.:24:34.

not an intention? Exactly, that is why I say to people. How many times

:24:34.:24:38.

have we been over this argument. If people want to see the intelligence

:24:38.:24:41.

we relied on, the simplest thing is they read the Joint Intelligence

:24:41.:24:45.

Committee reports that are now freely and public low available.

:24:45.:24:50.

Exactly a year -- Publicly available. Exactly a year before

:24:50.:24:56.

the invasion. You wrote to your Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell,

:24:56.:25:01.

you said, "We have to resword the story and the message, because it

:25:01.:25:06.

has to be about the nature of the regime". That came out at Chilcot.

:25:06.:25:10.

Can you see why people thought they were misled, a year beforehand you

:25:10.:25:15.

were thinking about the best way to make the case? You are obviously

:25:15.:25:18.

going to think of the best way to make the case if you believe it.

:25:18.:25:22.

that a case of making the case and trying to find the evidence to fit

:25:22.:25:27.

that? If you are in any doubt, if your problem is a "deceit" problem,

:25:27.:25:29.

look at the Joint Intelligence Committee reports. The point is

:25:29.:25:33.

this, however, the nature of the regime, this is why this

:25:33.:25:40.

distinction between the nature of the regime, and the use of WMD, is

:25:40.:25:44.

always well, not so much a forced one, but one lacking in common

:25:44.:25:49.

sense. The reason why we fear Iran with a nuclear weapon today, is in

:25:49.:25:55.

part because of the nature of the Iranian regime. If the Iranian

:25:55.:26:01.

regime were a democracy with a benign view towards the rest of the

:26:01.:26:04.

region, we still probably wouldn't want them to have a nuclear weapon,

:26:04.:26:06.

but it would be a completely different proposition. The thing

:26:06.:26:12.

was, even then, you have got Saddam then, but you also had Assad's

:26:12.:26:18.

father, WMD in Syria. Abuses of human rights then. The thing is, in

:26:18.:26:25.

a sense you either, you go in with WMD, it matters, surely, it matters

:26:25.:26:32.

then and it still matters about whether or not there were WMD

:26:32.:26:35.

because, it is a question of trust between politicians and the public,

:26:35.:26:40.

isn't it? It is a matter of trust. And when the allegation was first

:26:40.:26:44.

made that people are being deliberately misled, we had a six-

:26:44.:26:49.

month Government inquiry, it was the first time Government and the

:26:49.:26:52.

Intelligence Services, everybody gave evidence. It took six months.

:26:52.:26:57.

The judge that we put in charge was someone was absolute impeccable

:26:57.:26:59.

integrity, nothing to do with politics, that was the Hutton

:26:59.:27:02.

Inquiry. When he came out with the verdict that there was no deception,

:27:02.:27:07.

people didn't like it so they trashed the report and the judge. I

:27:07.:27:10.

agree with you, of course it is a serious issue about trust in

:27:10.:27:14.

politics. The fact is there have now been five different inquiries

:27:14.:27:17.

into the same issue. As I say, the simple thing is, if you are a

:27:18.:27:20.

member of the public and you don't know whether you were deliberately

:27:20.:27:24.

misled or not, go and read the Joint Intelligence Committee

:27:24.:27:28.

reports. Isn't it terrible that in this country now we can't go to war

:27:28.:27:33.

on the basis of intelligence again k we? I think, I don't think

:27:33.:27:36.

whether we go to war on the basis of intelligence or not is really

:27:36.:27:42.

the issue. I think what is the issue, frankly, after Iraq and

:27:42.:27:47.

Afghanistan, is whether we disregard the price of any such

:27:47.:27:52.

intervention as too high. Well, yes. I was wondering about that, after

:27:52.:27:57.

Iraq, do you think that you could ever make case for moral

:27:57.:28:01.

intervention? Yes, of course. talk about Iran. You talk about

:28:01.:28:05.

Syria? Yes. Look at what's happening in Syria today. Now,

:28:05.:28:09.

because we don't have troops there, it is not on our television screens

:28:09.:28:13.

every night in the same way. If this carries on much longer in

:28:13.:28:17.

Syria, there will be virtually as many people proportionately killed

:28:17.:28:24.

in Syria, as in the whole of the conflict since 2003 in Iraq, and

:28:24.:28:28.

we're at the beginning of this process now. You have a dictator

:28:28.:28:34.

there literally wiping out whole villages, using scud missiles and

:28:34.:28:36.

heavy artillery. We are not intervening.

:28:36.:28:40.

Do you think we should intervene? As I have said on many occasions,

:28:40.:28:44.

we don't have to put our own boots on the ground, I do think we should

:28:44.:28:49.

be taking a far stronger line on Siria. I think, in the end, if --

:28:49.:28:54.

Syria. I think in the end, if we don't intervene, and you carry on

:28:54.:29:00.

with this number of people dying, you carry on with the situation

:29:00.:29:03.

where increasingly I think you will find in the opposition forces it is

:29:03.:29:07.

the more extreme elements that take charge. We are going to end up with

:29:07.:29:14.

a very, very big problem further down the line. So my view is when

:29:14.:29:17.

you debate the wisdom of intervention versus non-

:29:17.:29:20.

intervention, non-intervention is also a decision, it is a policy and

:29:20.:29:25.

has consequences. Yes, but if it is not boots on the ground, it is

:29:25.:29:28.

bombs from the air, for example, you would have to have a legal

:29:28.:29:31.

basis for going into Syria. You will never get that through the UN?

:29:31.:29:34.

It is very difficult to get it through the UN. What would you do?

:29:34.:29:37.

Sometimes he look at the UN Security Council as if it was the

:29:37.:29:44.

Supreme Court of justice. It is a group of political leaders looking

:29:44.:29:49.

at their political interests. In my view, of course we should try to

:29:49.:29:52.

get a diplomatic solution. Even though we should be trying to work

:29:52.:29:56.

with the Russians and Chinese and others to get a way through. But

:29:56.:30:00.

there are things we could be doing to help change the balance of power

:30:00.:30:04.

in this struggle. And my anxiety is that we are about to learn again

:30:04.:30:09.

the lesson of the consequences of non-intervention. We went through

:30:09.:30:14.

this with Rwanda genocide and again in Bosnia, we didn't intervene,

:30:14.:30:18.

250,000 people died before we finally realised in the end these

:30:18.:30:23.

are struggles in which our own interests, quite apart from the

:30:23.:30:25.

humanitarian aspect, are dramatically engaged. I still think

:30:26.:30:30.

in respect of Iraq and Afghanistan, once those conflicts got beyond the

:30:30.:30:35.

ray genome change stage, Saddam was toppled, the Taliban driven out of

:30:35.:30:41.

Afghanistan, and they then changed into these deep-seated sectarian

:30:41.:30:44.

conflicts, we have an interest in ensuring that the sensible people

:30:44.:30:49.

win those conflicts. The problem is now, is that we are pretty sure

:30:49.:30:52.

that Iran has weapons of mass destruction at some level, or on

:30:52.:30:56.

its way to getting them. As a result of what happened in Iraq,

:30:56.:30:59.

Iran is an absolute powerhouse in the region. This is the number one

:30:59.:31:03.

enemy of the west, number one enemy of America, and as a result of the

:31:03.:31:07.

problems in Iraq, Iran is gaining power, and another foothold in

:31:07.:31:11.

Iraq? This is, in my view, the worst geopolitical argument I have

:31:11.:31:15.

come across. This parliament that some how we should have kept Saddam

:31:15.:31:19.

in power in order to act as a bulwark against Iran. That was the

:31:19.:31:25.

policy of the west, in the 1980s. We supported Saddam, in his

:31:25.:31:30.

struggle against Iran. The consequences were, a war in which

:31:30.:31:34.

there were one million casualties. Hundreds of thousands of people who

:31:34.:31:38.

were killed, largely by the use of chemical weapons and other

:31:38.:31:42.

artillery from Saddam. Without of that came two things, first of all,

:31:42.:31:46.

the absolute belief by Saddam that the existence of chemical weapons

:31:46.:31:50.

was essential for his regime. That is why he should he managed to push

:31:50.:31:55.

back the Iranians. And the Iranian nuclear weapons programme was borne

:31:55.:31:57.

out of their belief after that struggle that conventional weapons

:31:57.:32:01.

were not enough. When you look back in history, the idea it is a

:32:01.:32:05.

sensible policy to support people like Saddam to be a bulwark against

:32:05.:32:11.

Iran, it is not the right policy. The right policy is you get rid of

:32:11.:32:14.

dictators like Saddam, and you confront Iran and hope there is

:32:14.:32:17.

change there too. You have to confront these countries, I would

:32:17.:32:20.

suggest, without putting any British forces anywhere near them.

:32:20.:32:25.

Because, frankly, the British public has no appetite for that.

:32:25.:32:30.

And obviously you saw in Obama's address, he's not going on any

:32:30.:32:33.

foreign adventures either? I agree, there is a huge reaction. Of course

:32:33.:32:37.

there is going to be, minutes any form of intervention. All I'm

:32:37.:32:41.

saying to you is, that is the argument now. Let's wait and see

:32:41.:32:44.

how that argument is, particularly after what is happening in the

:32:44.:32:48.

Middle East. Look at the Middle East today. You have Syria, as I

:32:48.:32:51.

say, which is in a state of disintegration, with thousands of

:32:51.:32:56.

people dying every month. You have Iran trying to get nuclear weapons

:32:56.:32:59.

capability. Further awe field you have Pakistan, Afghanistan in state

:32:59.:33:03.

of great uncertainty. You have Yemen. You have Libya and Tunisia

:33:03.:33:07.

and Egypt, after their revolutions. Now with huge uncertainty as to

:33:07.:33:11.

what happens. You agree, you do agree with the revolutions in Egypt

:33:11.:33:16.

and so on. Although you did support Mubarak, you do agree with the

:33:16.:33:19.

revolutions? I do, I also say the revolutions aren't the end, they

:33:19.:33:23.

are the beginning. And what we are going to have to understand in the

:33:23.:33:28.

west is, it's OK to say we will disengage and let these countries

:33:28.:33:33.

get on with it. Of course we are trying 0 do what we can to help,

:33:33.:33:36.

those Governments in Libya and Tunisia and Egypt, but it is going

:33:36.:33:40.

to be a long, hard struggle. I would actually watch Egypt in

:33:40.:33:45.

particular. I hope that in the end that can be stablised. It may not.

:33:45.:33:49.

What is happening in Syria is, as I say, ghastly. All I'm saying to you

:33:49.:33:54.

is, in the end the essential judgment is this, is the world

:33:54.:34:01.

going to be safer if you leave these countries to their own fate,

:34:01.:34:07.

in answers is. So there is a dictator in power with an

:34:07.:34:10.

oppressive regime, we will leave them there. If the country rises up

:34:10.:34:15.

and throws them off, well that's their decision. Or is it better to

:34:15.:34:20.

see the forces that are trying to destablise the region and beyond,

:34:20.:34:27.

which in my view are forces linked by a common ideology, based on a

:34:27.:34:30.

perversion of religion, this Islamism, or is it better to see

:34:30.:34:34.

them as part of a whole picture. That is the essential picture. The

:34:34.:34:37.

judgment of history will be made about this, not now, because we are

:34:37.:34:41.

in the middle of it, it will be made later. That is the essential

:34:41.:34:44.

question. Are these separate struggles not linked really where

:34:44.:34:51.

you have got to take a case-by-case view, or is there something that

:34:51.:34:55.

fundamentally unites this process, and where we should see ourselves

:34:55.:34:59.

as having a profound strategic interest in engagment. I'm in the

:35:00.:35:03.

latter camp. But there are plenty of people who would say I'm wrong.

:35:03.:35:06.

There are plenty of people who would say you will never be

:35:06.:35:10.

supported by the country, because you squadered it during the war on

:35:10.:35:15.

Iraq? Look, what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan was difficult and

:35:15.:35:21.

long and bloody. Not because of getting rid of the regime, but

:35:21.:35:25.

because of what happened afterwards. And what happened afterwards was

:35:25.:35:29.

not something that occurred naturally, it occurred by the

:35:29.:35:33.

intervention of outside forces, linking up with internal forces.

:35:33.:35:37.

This is, as I say, precisely the problem you have everywhere in the

:35:37.:35:45.

region and beyond. In fact, as a result of the war in Iraq, Al-Qaeda

:35:45.:35:49.

is more on the rise than it was? think that is highly disputable. In

:35:49.:35:54.

Iraq British forces and others did immense damage to Al-Qaeda. But the

:35:54.:35:59.

fact is the ideology is still there, that is my point. It is a long

:35:59.:36:02.

generational struggle. And the question is, is it a struggle of

:36:02.:36:05.

which we should be interested and engaged, or is it one we say, look

:36:05.:36:10.

we have had enough of all that we will stay out of it. I totally

:36:10.:36:14.

understand why after long and arduous and difficult campaigns

:36:14.:36:18.

people in our country and America and elsewhere say let's stay out of

:36:18.:36:21.

it. You can just see what is happening to France and Mali, it is

:36:21.:36:26.

hard to stay out of it, in the end, I'm afraid, the problem is still

:36:26.:36:31.

there. In your memoirs you write about redeeming something from the

:36:31.:36:35.

tragedies of the deaths in Iraq. In a way is your role as a Middle East

:36:35.:36:41.

envoy some kind of attempt to atone? No. It is because I believe,

:36:41.:36:45.

look, I set out straight after September 11th, I set out at the

:36:45.:36:49.

party speech a couple of weeks later a global view, which is a

:36:49.:36:57.

view I still hold. Which is after 9/11, the callous of risk has --

:36:57.:37:02.

calculus of risk had changed, we had to take tougher lines against

:37:02.:37:06.

those proliferating chemical, nuclear or buy lopbl kal weapons.

:37:06.:37:11.

Secondly, I took the view that this ideology based on a perversion of

:37:11.:37:16.

the religion of Islam had to be confronted. And one part of

:37:16.:37:22.

confronting it is to deal with the long-running Israeli-Palestinian

:37:22.:37:28.

dispue. Not because it is a cause of that extremism, but because

:37:28.:37:31.

resolving it you put a huge boost in place for the modern-minded view

:37:31.:37:34.

of the world. Which is really what is going on within the Middle East

:37:34.:37:40.

and elsewhere. It is a struggle between the close-mind -- closed

:37:40.:37:45.

mind and the open mind. The closed mind believes in societies run by

:37:45.:37:48.

religion. The open mind says religion has a place in society,

:37:48.:37:51.

but we should live together irrespective of whatever faith we

:37:51.:37:55.

are, and we need an open-minded tolerant and democratic view of the

:37:55.:38:01.

way we govern ourselves. Do you think you will be redeemed?

:38:01.:38:10.

less interested in my personal position in this. That in at least

:38:10.:38:17.

keeping people's minds alert to the possibility, that what happened in

:38:17.:38:21.

Iraq was not some deceit or deception, it was actually a very

:38:21.:38:25.

difficult decision, but it was a decision that became even more

:38:25.:38:30.

difficult as a result of forces that are the same forces we are now

:38:30.:38:36.

facing in many different parts of the world. I truly believe i may be

:38:36.:38:39.

wrong, I tell you genuinely believe it. I think the only way we

:38:39.:38:43.

overcome the forces in the end, is to stand up to them, to stand

:38:44.:38:47.

alongside. Where I think the majority of people, even in Iraq

:38:47.:38:52.

today, which is on the side of tolerance and democracy S but the

:38:52.:38:56.

struggle is long and hard -- democracy. But the struggle is long

:38:56.:38:59.

and hard and will take an intense amount of determination and will to

:38:59.:39:01.

win. Thank you very much.

:39:01.:39:06.

You can catch up with our debate on Iraq, ten years on, on the BBC

:39:06.:39:09.

iPlayer. Before the end of the programme we will have the front

:39:09.:39:12.

pages. First, the idea that there is a link between sugar and

:39:12.:39:16.

diabetes is quite a common one. Chances are you put that down to

:39:16.:39:24.

sugar leading to obesity, and hence to diabetes. But a new expensive

:39:24.:39:27.

epidemiological study, published today, and looking right across

:39:27.:39:33.

populations. Reveals that our own sugar intake might be connected to

:39:34.:39:37.

diabetes, unconnected with obesity. We look at what the research can

:39:37.:39:46.

mean for all of us. It is not just the sugar we add to

:39:46.:39:52.

our food, ow the sugars hidden in our every-day diet that can affect

:39:52.:39:56.

our health. This latest research is attracting attention because it

:39:56.:39:59.

looks at data from 175 countries over the past decade. The

:39:59.:40:02.

scientists found a link between increased availability of sugar in

:40:02.:40:06.

a population's food supply, and the amount of diabetes in that

:40:06.:40:13.

population. The standard mantra was that a calorie is a calorie F you

:40:13.:40:19.

take in more calories than you burn, you will get obese and are at

:40:19.:40:23.

higher risk for diabetes. We are finding that may be oversimplified.

:40:23.:40:27.

That many people not yet obese are at high risk of diabetes, and many

:40:28.:40:33.

obese are not at high risk for diabetes. It is more complex,

:40:33.:40:37.

obesity is a problem, but the type of calories you eat may be

:40:37.:40:42.

pertinent to your risk, and sugar calories may be more pertinent than

:40:42.:40:46.

other sides of calories. He says he's not playing down the risk of

:40:46.:40:52.

diabetes from obesity, but his work, published in the peer journal, plus

:40:52.:40:58.

plus, suggests sugar is playing a role in its own right. The

:40:58.:41:05.

researchers found each 150 extra kilo calories per person per day,

:41:05.:41:12.

brought a rise in diabetes of 0.1%. If those 150 extra kilo calories

:41:12.:41:19.

were sugar, the pref veins of -- prevalence of diabetes was 1.1%,

:41:19.:41:24.

even including obesity, ageing, physical activity, other types of

:41:24.:41:28.

calories and eco and social variables. In other words, the more

:41:28.:41:32.

sugar there is in a population's diet, the higher the prevalence of

:41:32.:41:37.

diabetes in that population. This research did not track what was

:41:37.:41:40.

eaten person-by-person, it looked at the population as a whole. Nor

:41:40.:41:44.

did it attempt to distinguish between type I diabetes, which

:41:44.:41:48.

tends to appear in the young, and requires insulin injections, and

:41:48.:41:53.

type II, which people tend to develop over their lifetime.

:41:53.:41:56.

Delegates at a conference in Manchester today, were looking at

:41:56.:42:00.

the public health challenges of obesity, including diabetes.

:42:00.:42:05.

Professor Simon Capewell worked on a report on obesity published last

:42:05.:42:09.

week by the academy of royal colleges. It called for a ten-point

:42:09.:42:15.

action plan, including a 20% tax on sugary drinks. This is a very

:42:15.:42:20.

helpful paper, because it eases out the independent --tiess out the

:42:20.:42:23.

independent contribution of sugar in the diet. And diabetes numbers

:42:24.:42:28.

have been going up steeply around the world, over time, one of the

:42:28.:42:33.

big contributors has clearly been increasing body weight. Obesity.

:42:33.:42:37.

Until recently the assumption was sugar just makes a contribution

:42:37.:42:43.

because it increases body weight. This paper and other analysis now

:42:43.:42:46.

clearly shows that even after you allow for the increase in body

:42:46.:42:52.

weight and put that to one side, sugar by itself also independently

:42:52.:43:00.

increases diabetes. The charity Diabetes UK says the findings

:43:00.:43:04.

warrant further research. It is certainly is an interesting study.

:43:04.:43:09.

The researchers themselves were surprised at some of the findings,

:43:09.:43:13.

so Diabetes UK will be looking very carefully to future investigations.

:43:13.:43:18.

But what we must remember, with diabetes, it is not just about

:43:18.:43:21.

sugar. It is about high blood pressure, it is about high blood

:43:22.:43:29.

fat as well. There is a lot of things go into the problems

:43:30.:43:32.

creating diabetes. Would you advise anybody with diabetes to alter

:43:32.:43:37.

their diet at all as a result of this study? People with type I tie

:43:37.:43:42.

beauties is ignore it and -- diabetes can ignore it and carry on

:43:42.:43:46.

as before. People with type II diabetes might think that by

:43:46.:43:50.

cutting sugar out of their diet they can solve the whole problem.

:43:50.:43:54.

So we will continue to advise people to eat a healthy, balanced

:43:54.:43:58.

diet. The UK organisation funded by sugar manufacturers, to speak on

:43:58.:44:08.
:44:08.:44:24.

their behalf, reacted coolly to The doctor agrees his findings

:44:24.:44:28.

cannot and do not prove that sugar causes diabetes, that would require

:44:28.:44:31.

controlled trials looking at individuals, and how much sugar

:44:32.:44:36.

they eat. We need to next do a clinical trial, where we try people

:44:36.:44:41.

out on low-sugar diets and see what their diabetes risk is in the

:44:41.:44:47.

future, compared with the average diet in the population. Other than

:44:47.:44:50.

feeding people sugar to see if they develop diabetes, which would

:44:50.:44:55.

clearly be unetle ka, that future work may -- ethical, that future

:44:55.:44:58.

work may be the best way to understand just how important this

:44:58.:45:01.

sugar signal really is. Tomorrow morning's front pages,

:45:01.:45:11.
:45:11.:45:11.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 45 seconds

:45:11.:45:57.

We will be covering the Pope's final day in office tomorrow. Today

:45:57.:46:01.

he waved to the crowds of Vatican Square, toured in the Pope-mobile,

:46:01.:46:05.

Last day of campaigning for the Eastleigh by-election, has the euro crisis been resurrected by Italy's inconclusive election? Plus Tony Blair proposes intervention in Syria. With Kirsty Wark.