13/05/2013 Newsnight


13/05/2013

The new Tory deal for a Euro referendum bill. Peace or intervention in Syria? And a new virus spread by human contact. With Emily Maitlis.


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$:/STARTFEED. The Tory leadership has been blown around by euro-

:00:14.:00:18.

sceptic rebels. Tonight the party offers a new deal. Will they simply

:00:18.:00:22.

come back for more. In Washington the President offers sharp words to

:00:22.:00:28.

Tory MPs. You probably want to see if you can fix what's broken in a

:00:28.:00:32.

very important relationship before you break it off. We will be joined

:00:32.:00:40.

for reaction tonight by Tory rebel, Nadine dor res. Also tonight:

:00:41.:00:46.

The lauter in Syria continues, in Washington Cameron and Obama agree

:00:46.:00:50.

to do nothing at least for now. All this debate may have done about

:00:51.:00:54.

a peace conference is delay by a few weeks the decision the US and

:00:54.:01:00.

the UK need to make about whether to arm the opposition. We will put

:01:00.:01:06.

that to George W Bush's pent gone ally.

:01:06.:01:11.

How bad can it get, the deadly global virus that can be passed

:01:11.:01:20.

through personal contact. Good evening, who exactly is

:01:20.:01:24.

throwing in the towel. Earlier today that charge was levelled at

:01:25.:01:28.

rebel euro-sceptic MPs, those calling for an early referendum on

:01:28.:01:31.

Europe. Yet tonight David Cameron's agreed to publish a draft bill that

:01:31.:01:37.

will pave the way for an in-out vote in 2017. The timing is unlike

:01:37.:01:40.

to be coincidence, and comes as the President of the United States came

:01:41.:01:44.

to the Prime Minister's aid on this very subject. Where is the

:01:44.:01:48.

leadership coming from, and will an awful like this be enough to stop

:01:48.:01:53.

them, as one once said, "banging on". Take us through what this

:01:53.:01:56.

draft suggests? It is a quite a loud bang of the drum this evening.

:01:56.:01:59.

They hope it will be one of the final ones before the next election.

:01:59.:02:02.

What the current strategy or strategy as of yesterday or this

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morning was, was that 2015 if the Prime Minister manages to be in

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some form of Government he will renegotiate with European partners

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and then there is will be a referendum in 2017 and people in

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Britain get a stay. Lots of backbenchers want his hands bound

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in some ways to dictate to other Governments in the future or any

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Government he will be part of as part of legislation. He says he

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can't do that. Now he has said half an hour ago in America is we will

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give awe bill, we will write it and publish it tomorrow, we cannot

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charter it through, you as backbenchers have to adopt it

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through this thing called the Private Members Bill all bot, where

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they all go in the mix -- ballot, where they all go in the mix and if

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it comes up top they have to chose it. In the last 40 minutes we have

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seen one of the key euro-sceptic rebels has said he doesn't really

:02:53.:02:56.

like this new proposition from David Cameron. He's actually called

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it a ploy on Radio 4 this evening. That is because they think actually

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if you really do believe this then you would just use Government time.

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I think that is being a bit unkind on them, there is this Lib Dem

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problem. The Lib Dems will not accept this. That is what some of

:03:11.:03:14.

the euro-sceptics are saying, we will hear more later. If you

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believe this you will push it through. There is a second problem,

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this is more process, this is more about timing and it is not actually

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about the heart of it which is what are you actually going to

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renegotiate. What are you actually going to bring back. Until people

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know what he's talking about bringing back, they are not sure

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they want to be part of his strategy or want another one.

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is Britain's route to Europe. Right now there is a pretty rigid

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schedule to it. If the stories win a general election in 2015 and

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Prime Minister David Cameron begins to renegotiate powers from Europe.

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Time is up in 2017 and people are given a referendum. For a number in

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the Conservative Party that's all just way too slow.

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But the animal which provided the goat skin for last week's Queen's

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Speech may have died in vain. Conservative backbenchers have

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tabled an amendment, possibly to be voted Onil Wednesday. It expresses

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regret that 2013's honourable address contains no EU referendum

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bill. Tory backbenchers and privately some front benchers

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believe David Cameron's 2017 referendum pledge is on the right

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tracks, it just needs to be legislated for this parliament.

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While the Prime Minister is in America extoling the virtues of

:04:37.:04:40.

free demonstrate to President Obama, back here his euro-sceptic MPs are

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also having a pretty good time. Tonight they throw a party to

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welcome Nadine Dorres back to the fold after she lost the whip T will

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be a pretty good bash. Euro- sceptics think the events of the

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last few days suggests things are going their way. This is why, a

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steady march of Tory grandees coming out. First Norman Lamont,

:05:07.:05:11.

and Michael Portillo, so far so containable. Next up voices from

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around the cabinet. On Sunday both Education Secretary, Michael Gove

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and Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond. There are as many as seven

:05:21.:05:24.

other cabinet ministers who share this view. If that was friend, this

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:05:34.:05:40.

morning it was the turn of a rival, David Cameron, at the White House

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to discuss a new EU-US trade deal worth billions, he said, slapped

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them down. There is a very good reason why there is not going to be

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a referendum tomorrow, it is because it would give the British

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public I think an entirely false choice between the status quo,

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which I don't think is acceptable, I want to see the European Union

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changed, I want to see Britain's relationship with the European

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Union changed and improved. It would be a false choice between the

:06:04.:06:08.

status quo and leaving. I don't think that is the choice that the

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British public want or the British public deserve. The American

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President had some advice as well. I think the UK's participation in

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:06:26.:06:26.

the EU is an expression of its influence. Of its role in the world

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and obviously a very important economic partnership. Ultimately

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the people of the UK have to make decisions for themselves. I will

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say this, that David's basic point that you probably want to see if

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you can fix what's broken in a very important relationship before you

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break it off. It makes some sense to me. The Prime Minister's former

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Welsh Secretary is among some 70 Tory MPs backing Wednesday's

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Queen's Speech amendment, Sheryl Gillan thinks legislation is needed

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now, partly to deal with the trust problem of the I think it is

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important to restore some faith in our political parties and process.

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Particularly in the Conservative Party. We have had so many promises

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on referenda, but not a referendum the people have been able to vote

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on since the 1970s. I, like many colleagues, think our relationship

:07:24.:07:28.

does need renegotiation with the European Union. But it also then

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needs putting to the people. It needs to be an in-out referendum.

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The Prime Minister has promised that. But let's see him confirm

:07:37.:07:41.

that, hopefully, with a piece of legislation. Tonight the Prime

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Minister has done just that. Modifying his itinerary for

:07:47.:07:49.

European renegotiation quite considerably. Half an hour ago he

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announced he will tomorrow publish a draft parliamentary bill afterall.

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It will legislation for an in-out referendum on Britain's membership

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of the EU to be held by the end of 2017. Number Ten is urging

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backbench MPs to adopt this legislation as their own. They

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can't bring it as coalition legislation, the Lib Dems wouldn't

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allow it. Whatever the speed of the journey, what's the cargo, what

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does David Cameron want to bring back from Europe? Clearly there are

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things that he could crack on with immediately and set out in more

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detail. There are a lot of areas, for example fisheries policy, which

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is already happening, access to benefits, which he is already

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addressing. There are other areas as well, social employment law, the

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budget, a whole range of areas around better regulation, the EU

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doing less in Britain but better. In all these areas if you start to

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address them now and give a bit more of a game plan his

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backbenchers would probably be a bit happier, as would the public.

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There are some in David Cameron's cabinet who think he should set out

:08:53.:08:57.

what negotiations with Europe he plans, not so much detail he gives

:08:57.:09:01.

the game away to European partners, but enough so that his voters and

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his colleagues alike know what negotiation success and failure

:09:05.:09:12.

looks like. Lib Dem sources have said this evening that the Tories

:09:12.:09:16.

are banging on about Europe, the Prime Minister will hope his action

:09:16.:09:20.

will actually be the last bang on the Europe drum for a while. But

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with questions hanging over David Cameron's ambitions for

:09:23.:09:29.

renegotiation, it's not clear it will be. Let's get some reaction to

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what we have heard tonight, joining me now is the Tory MP Nadine Dorres,

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who was expelled from her party over a reality show appearence and

:09:38.:09:43.

has now been readmitted. And Stephen Dorrell who remembers the

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John Major years and supports the Cameron strategy. And we will hear

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from the spokesman of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy. What do

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you make of this? It is interesting, it obviously shows the Prime

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Minister is listeninging to both his backbenchers and actually --

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listeninging to both his backbenchers and the people of the

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country, that is what they are there to represent. It is an

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interesting move. What is worrying is we are still stuck in the time

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frame of 2016, people want to see things through much quicker than

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this. If we can bring forward legislation on gay marriage and

:10:24.:10:28.

referendum on an AV referendum for the Liberal Democrats, then surely

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we can bring something much quicker forward than 2017. Let me just get

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to the nitty gritty on this, would you throw your name into the ballot,

:10:35.:10:40.

would you put this one forward? and I think in this process, which

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is being allowed there will be a number of MPs who will want to do.

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That as you say it would be very difficult with the coalition. What

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everybody will be unhappy with is the time frame of 2017. The fact is,

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nobody knows what will happen in the general election. It may not be

:10:57.:11:01.

a Conservative Government, I hope it will be, it isn't whoever comes

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in will reverse this legislation. Does that mean you will drop the

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amendment to the Queen's Speech, will that not go ahead? I have no

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idea because this news has only just broken, we haven't discussed

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this. I think the amendment still will go ahead. One important aspect

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of this piece, this move is quite tactical. It means both Labour and

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Liberal Democrats will have to expose their hand in a vote and

:11:24.:11:34.
:11:34.:11:35.

their hand will be exposed as being anti- EU amendment. It is a clever

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move tactically, but in terms of being a Private Members Bill, 2017

:11:39.:11:43.

is too far in the future F we can give gay marriage promises in

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legislation and an AV referendum, we need to bring through this much

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quicker. It smacks of appeasment and of the kind that never works?

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don't think it is, it is confirming the policy the Prime Minister set

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out in January. That is to say there are two stages to his policy,

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not one. It is not just about a referendum as he made clear in

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Washington today, it is about renegotiating the arrangement that

:12:08.:12:13.

is reveil in Europe. As Nigel Lawson said in his article at the

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beginning of the week, the facts have changed in the euro. There are

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euro members and those who will never be part of it. Doesn't it

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seem an odd time to pet it out? is exactly the same policy, as I

:12:28.:12:32.

made the point. Why not just put it in the Queen's Speech or said it

:12:32.:12:37.

out in January? It is the same policy set out inen ja. It is

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suddenly being published as a draft bill tomorrow? You asked me two

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questions. It is the same policy set out by the Prime Minister in

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January as Conservative Party policy. It has not changed one iota

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since then. It wasn't in the Queen's Speech, because it isn't a

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coalition policy and this is a coalition Government. The Prime

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Minister as leader of the Conservative Party has set out a

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policy, it was endorsed very widely within the Conservative Party in

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January, this bill is a consequential from that policy and

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changes the policy not one iota. understand John Baron leading the

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amendment to the Queen's Speech says that is still going ahead. So

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this won't work if you still have 70 rebels or whatever number it

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will be by then signing that? don't have a very strong view about

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this, what I would regard frankly as parliamentary placard raising on

:13:31.:13:37.

Wednesday. Which one? The amendment. What matters to me is there is a

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clear policy which the Prime Minister has set out, which the

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Prime Minister intends to carry through. This bill is a

:13:45.:13:47.

consequential that will be necessary to complete the two aims

:13:47.:13:50.

of that policy. First to renegotiate and then to put the new

:13:51.:13:55.

settlement to a referendum when the negotiations are complete. What

:13:55.:14:01.

would be enough for you now? If this is an olive branch of sorts

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and you are talking about 2017, is there any compromise between here

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and there? Legislation that will trigger article 50, that does give

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a two-year time frame is the kind of legislation that we, as you call

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us "rebels" are looking for. We are not rebels, we are MPs representing

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the views of our constituents. A large majority of the British

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public. That's what would keep us happy. It has to be a tighter time

:14:24.:14:28.

frame. The fact is that if we talk about 2017 the general public are

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going to say, if you can, just to appease the Liberal Democrats, give

:14:33.:14:40.

a national referendum on AV, why can't you give us one on EU, that

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is self-serving the public. I am awondering if this gives you

:14:45.:14:51.

confidence that the Prime Minister is committed to Europe? The Prime

:14:52.:14:56.

Minister in his speech in January did make a very strong case for

:14:56.:15:00.

Britain's membership of the European Union, and why it was in

:15:00.:15:03.

Britain's advantage and why leaving it would be a major problem for

:15:03.:15:07.

Britain. And then promised a referendum on possibly leaving. But

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I think if you are asking about views in Brussels generally,

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Brussels is just the meeting place of the different countries of

:15:13.:15:20.

Europe. I think there is quite a range of use, some are rather

:15:20.:15:23.

perplexed, saying this is very serious matters, and others saying

:15:23.:15:27.

no it is just about internal divisions of the Conservative Party.

:15:27.:15:30.

Some think it is a serious prospect that Britain might leave the eflt U,

:15:30.:15:35.

some say no, -- the EU, some say surely that would be economic

:15:35.:15:38.

suicide for Britain. Is there room for renegotiation, is there wriggle

:15:39.:15:46.

room within where the EU is now? The European Union is a permanent

:15:46.:15:49.

negotiation among its 27-member states on the issues which they

:15:49.:15:54.

decide and choose to deal with jointly, because of interdependance

:15:54.:15:57.

and other advantages of doing something jointly. At one level it

:15:57.:16:01.

is a permanent negotiation. Sorry to interrupt, is there anything

:16:01.:16:05.

that the Prime Minister could renegotiate or is there enough that

:16:05.:16:09.

he could renegotiate that would make you change your mind on a

:16:09.:16:12.

referendum? It is not about me or the British public. They were given

:16:12.:16:15.

a very simple choice when asked to go into the Common Market, did they

:16:15.:16:20.

want to go in or didn't they, yes or no. People deserve exactly the

:16:20.:16:25.

same choice in terms of exiting. Whether or not we have a choice, an

:16:25.:16:28.

option of renegotiation is actually a completely separate issue. People

:16:28.:16:32.

deserve a choice. Do you want to be in or out of the European Union.

:16:32.:16:38.

They deserve that at the very least. Does it matter if David Cameron

:16:38.:16:45.

sets out his stall or as has been said, if MPs are responding to

:16:45.:16:50.

constituents' wishes it doesn't matter? We go back to the Nigel

:16:50.:16:53.

Lawson point in the article that kicked off this round of debate.

:16:53.:16:57.

This is not just a rerun of the all of arguments we have had over the

:16:57.:17:00.

last 20 years, Europe is different, it is changing, because some

:17:00.:17:03.

European countries are members of the euro, some are not. That

:17:03.:17:09.

requires, there is no escape from this. What does he want to get,

:17:09.:17:12.

what does David Cameron hope to achieve which would push any

:17:12.:17:16.

thought of a referendum out of the British public's mind? He wants to

:17:16.:17:20.

achieve a changed relationship between this country as a long-term

:17:20.:17:27.

out. What is that? In other words a freer more distant relationship

:17:27.:17:30.

that doesn't aspire at any point to be part of the euro. That is not

:17:30.:17:35.

what we want. What we want is trading relationship, outward

:17:35.:17:39.

looking, more market orientated, more flexible in terms of our

:17:39.:17:42.

labour markets, our trading with the rest of the world. That is the

:17:42.:17:48.

kind of relationship that all the euro-outs need to make the euro-out

:17:48.:17:51.

relationship work with the euro state member. Do you understand

:17:51.:17:56.

what is being asked for there, and is it feasible? A lot of people

:17:57.:18:00.

here would like to know exactly what is being asked for. Britains

:18:00.:18:04.

had a choice whether to join the euro or not, nobody is asking it to

:18:04.:18:09.

join the euro. Britain is part of the single market, most people in

:18:09.:18:14.

the country want to remain in the single market. That is the bulk of

:18:14.:18:18.

what the EU does, the Common Market and rules for the Common Market.

:18:18.:18:23.

Everyone is curious to know exactly what changes Britain might put

:18:23.:18:26.

forward. At the moment nothing has actually been tabled by Britain

:18:26.:18:30.

this is what a future Government might do. Nothing has been tabled

:18:30.:18:33.

at the moment. Some don't understand what David Cameron is

:18:33.:18:38.

actually asking for, how can it be negotiated? I think Angela Merkel

:18:38.:18:41.

understands it. Every time David Cameron goes to Europe, goes to the

:18:41.:18:45.

institutions of the EU people say he won't come back with anything.

:18:45.:18:51.

The last time for real he went into a negotiation in Brussels. It was

:18:51.:18:53.

to deliver something in terms of the European budget, which everyone

:18:54.:19:00.

in it this country said of unachievable. He achieved it

:19:00.:19:03.

because he established a relationship with Angela Merkel and

:19:03.:19:07.

other European leaders who share our view about the necessity to

:19:07.:19:11.

change the direction of the European Union, in the interests of

:19:11.:19:14.

British citizens, but in the interests of the whole of the rest

:19:14.:19:17.

of Europe as well. It will look to some as if the Prime Minister is

:19:17.:19:21.

trying to catch up with the events of last week. You have suggested

:19:22.:19:28.

some kind of double-ticket between UKIP and the Conservatives, or ways

:19:28.:19:31.

that candidates could work together. Spell out what you would like to

:19:31.:19:35.

see, what you meant by that? Can I just address the question just

:19:35.:19:40.

asked. I think that one very simple answer to this problem, in terms of

:19:40.:19:43.

people understanding what it is that David Cameron is trying to

:19:43.:19:47.

achieve. What they would like is to be removed from the promise of

:19:47.:19:51.

ever-closer political union. If they can be removed from that it is

:19:51.:19:54.

quite a simple exercise, I think that is what we are looking for and

:19:54.:19:58.

what the British public are looking for. My comments and my article on

:19:58.:20:03.

Sunday were quite clear, actually. Two years ago David Cameron and

:20:03.:20:08.

Nick Clegg changed the law, altered the legislation, so candidates

:20:08.:20:12.

going forward at the 2015 election could put two logos on the ballot

:20:12.:20:19.

paper. Some MPs may feel that rather than have a Conservative-Lib

:20:19.:20:23.

Dem double logo, which was originally tendered, may want to go

:20:23.:20:28.

forward with a Conservative-UK logo. That would mean Conservative MPs

:20:28.:20:31.

being adopted by their local associations and endorsed by UKIP.

:20:31.:20:35.

That could be a way forward. Could you embrace that or does it horrify

:20:35.:20:40.

you? I don't agree with it, and I don't agree with it for a very

:20:40.:20:48.

simple reason. In party system a party must decide which members it

:20:48.:20:51.

enforce dors -- endorses it and which it doesn't, and Nigel Farage

:20:51.:20:55.

hasn't shown much interest in that idea. In a moment the killer virus

:20:56.:21:03.

passed by human contact. Is it bold to go into Syria or bolder to stay

:21:03.:21:07.

out? Tonight as David Cameron talks up the prospect of peace,

:21:07.:21:12.

negotiated with Russia, to stop the bloodshed, we ask what America's

:21:12.:21:16.

tactics would be. Is intervention now impossible? Or is it long

:21:16.:21:19.

overdue? What message is sent to the Syrian Government when the red

:21:19.:21:24.

line is crossed and nothing happens? We have been on the trail

:21:24.:21:28.

of the Prime Minister and President in Washington and we have this

:21:28.:21:32.

report. Neither of these leaders has a simple answer to the Syrian

:21:32.:21:41.

crisis. Advisers talk about each of them facing only bad options. There

:21:41.:21:45.

might be another way. Hot foot from talking to President Putin on

:21:45.:21:50.

Friday, the Prime Minister came bearing the gift of promised

:21:50.:21:54.

Russian co-operation in organising a Syrian peace conference. We all

:21:54.:21:59.

have an interest in a stable, peaceful Syria, that looks after

:21:59.:22:02.

minority rights and brings stability to the neighbourhood. I

:22:02.:22:06.

think that was a breakthrough. I found in my talks with President

:22:06.:22:12.

Putin that he's keen now to move from the generalities of having a

:22:12.:22:17.

peace conference to talking through the specifics of how we can make

:22:17.:22:25.

this work. Ameasure with domestic political difficulties, -- amesh

:22:25.:22:30.

with domestic political difficulties, the leaders would

:22:30.:22:34.

rather talk about domestic issues. Mr Cameron has been left

:22:34.:22:37.

emphasisinging the chances that his recent talks with the Russians

:22:37.:22:44.

might produce a peace conference. Good to see you. Can the Russian

:22:44.:22:46.

offer to bring the Syrian Government to the negotiating table

:22:46.:22:53.

amount to more than a glimmer of hope in a conflict that has already

:22:53.:22:56.

claimed 08,000 lives. It is worth it for Prime Minister Cameron and

:22:56.:23:01.

President Obama to try to see if the Russians can work together with

:23:01.:23:05.

us on this endeavour. But I must say, the Russian track record is

:23:06.:23:09.

not particularly brilliant. They have been sending arms to Syria,

:23:09.:23:12.

they have been unstinting supporters of Syria, they have been

:23:12.:23:15.

blocking all proposals in the UN Security Council for two years on

:23:15.:23:19.

behalf of Syria. I think the pressure is on the Russians to show

:23:19.:23:24.

they can be a productive and responsible counterpart to the

:23:24.:23:27.

United Kingdom and the United States on this issue. The President

:23:27.:23:30.

of the United States and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of

:23:30.:23:34.

Great Britain and Northern Ireland. President Obama's response to the

:23:34.:23:37.

proposed Geneva peace conference showed an awareness of how small

:23:37.:23:43.

its chances of success might be. I'm not promising that it is going

:23:43.:23:50.

to be successful. Frankly, sometimes once the fueries have

:23:50.:23:57.

been unleashed in a situation like Syria, it is very hard to put

:23:57.:24:07.
:24:07.:24:08.

things back together. There are going to be enormous challenges in

:24:08.:24:15.

getting a credible process going. Even if Russia is involved. At the

:24:15.:24:19.

end of this one got the impression that the two leaders don't pin any

:24:19.:24:23.

great hopes on a negotiated solution, despite Russia's apparent

:24:23.:24:26.

change of position. All this debate may have done about a peace

:24:26.:24:30.

conference is delay by a few weeks the decision that the US and UK

:24:30.:24:36.

have to make about whether to arm the opposition. When it comes to

:24:36.:24:40.

fuelling the conflict by sending in weapons, neither of these partners

:24:40.:24:44.

are prepared to cross that rubicon now, despite the reports of

:24:44.:24:49.

chemical weapons being used. have not made the decision to arm

:24:49.:24:54.

opposition groups in Syria, what we have done is we have amended the EU

:24:54.:24:57.

arms embargo, in order that we can give technical assistance and

:24:57.:25:02.

technical advice, as I said in my statement, that's exactly what we

:25:02.:25:05.

are doing. We are continuing to examine and look at the EU arms

:25:05.:25:08.

embargo and see whether we need to make further changes to it in order

:25:08.:25:13.

to facilitate our work with the opposition. Neither leader wants to

:25:13.:25:17.

escalate their involvement in Syria. Thank you very much everybody.

:25:17.:25:22.

the pressure of events on the ground, from regional spillover to

:25:22.:25:26.

the risks of chemical weapons causing mass casualties could

:25:26.:25:30.

easily force their hand. Let's pick up with our Washington

:25:30.:25:35.

correspondent. You talked about the leaders not having great hopes from

:25:35.:25:38.

this conference and yet it seems there is a time pressure of sorts.

:25:38.:25:43.

What ultimately do you think they will do? It is such a difficult

:25:43.:25:49.

issue. One should say one of the reasons they may not be that

:25:49.:25:53.

hopeful is that their allies, the umbrella group of Syrian opposition

:25:53.:25:56.

forces have really rejected this type of approach in the past and

:25:56.:25:59.

have hinted today that they are not going to go for it now. It is not

:25:59.:26:03.

as if the western side of this can deliver their side of it, let alone

:26:03.:26:09.

the Russian side, which they always choose to foblg cuss on. This

:26:09.:26:18.

question of how -- focus on. This question of how the countries

:26:18.:26:21.

should act has been going on throughout the conflict. You can

:26:21.:26:25.

see a slow and steady movement throughout the US. A year ago it

:26:25.:26:30.

was a couple of Republican senators forcefully advocating the US should

:26:30.:26:32.

get involved. Now you have a different situation, late last year

:26:32.:26:37.

the head of the CIA, the Defence Secretary, both suggested arming

:26:37.:26:40.

the opposition, the White House overruled them. Last week the

:26:40.:26:50.

chairman of the for -- Foreign Relations Group said he was going

:26:50.:26:54.

to put forward a bill to arm the rebels. It is the White House and

:26:54.:26:56.

the President who has stood against it. Everything would change if

:26:56.:27:02.

there was shocking news relating to chemical weapons and large-scale

:27:02.:27:04.

casualties. Even if that doesn't happen that is what the President

:27:04.:27:07.

is being pulled towards by political forces and professional

:27:07.:27:11.

advice here. The UK it is a slightly different equation, they

:27:11.:27:15.

will carry on aid to the opposition groups but they may stop short of

:27:15.:27:18.

weapons. It does seem that President Obama is being drawn

:27:18.:27:24.

towards that kind of step. Particularly if these attempted

:27:24.:27:29.

peace moves don't produce a result in the next few weeks. Here to

:27:29.:27:33.

discuss this from Washington is the US deputy secretary for defence

:27:33.:27:38.

under President George W Bush. In a moment we will be joined by Florida

:27:38.:27:43.

from a member of the Syrian Support Group, who regularly spends time

:27:43.:27:49.

with the Free Syrian Army members in Aleppo. We also have our guest

:27:49.:27:55.

in the studio. Do you think this peace negotiation stands a chance

:27:55.:28:05.
:28:05.:28:06.

in a conference? It would be wonderful to get a peaceful end to

:28:06.:28:10.

the slaughter. We have had meetings before, and it don't stop anything.

:28:10.:28:13.

I don't know what they are talking about when they talk about a

:28:13.:28:16.

Russian change in position. The Russians are firm their position

:28:16.:28:19.

does not include that Assad must leave. They haven't said anything

:28:19.:28:25.

about a stable democratic Syria, which is what Prime Minister

:28:25.:28:28.

Cameron's side talk about. They talk about protecting Syria's

:28:28.:28:31.

integrity and sovereignty. That means protecting the present

:28:32.:28:36.

Government. In the meantime they are escalating, using more violent

:28:36.:28:39.

weapons, including chemical weapons and mobilising violent militias,

:28:39.:28:43.

they are bringing in Iranians and Hezbollah. They are fighting while

:28:43.:28:46.

pretending to negotiate. And we are pretending to negotiate while doing

:28:46.:28:50.

nothing. I think it is a desperate situation. The longer we wait the

:28:50.:29:00.

fewer options we have. How far would your intervention go then?

:29:00.:29:07.

Look a year ago, two years ago we could have done a lot, simply by

:29:07.:29:10.

supporting the opposition, there are moderate elements within the

:29:10.:29:14.

opposition I believe, as time as gone on the extremists have come to

:29:14.:29:18.

play a more and more significant role. The people who were moderate

:29:18.:29:23.

are now deeply resentful of us. I'm not so sure what options we have,

:29:23.:29:26.

but I do know there is no hope for a negotiation unless there is some

:29:26.:29:29.

leverage on the side of the opposition and we have given them

:29:29.:29:36.

no leverage at all. Let me throw a few thoughts at you, you tell me

:29:36.:29:41.

yes or no. Would you arm rebels? That's obviously one of the ways in

:29:41.:29:46.

which you can give them some leverage. We haven't been in there

:29:46.:29:49.

enough to know which rebels we can work with and which can't. There

:29:49.:29:56.

are some you would not want to arm at all. I would, look there is

:29:56.:30:00.

nothing to be confident about except that we should have acted a

:30:00.:30:04.

year or two years ago. Right now instead of dithering and talking

:30:04.:30:08.

about a fruitless meeting with the Russians we should be getting in

:30:08.:30:13.

there and figuring out our options. We can't do that in Washington.

:30:13.:30:17.

understand you are saying it is too late, but we are where we are, what

:30:17.:30:23.

would you do tomorrow if you were in charge? I would be sending

:30:23.:30:30.

people in with a mandate, where we find opposition groups that are

:30:30.:30:34.

prepared for a democratic and inclusive Syria, that are not

:30:34.:30:38.

extremists, that we would in fact give them the kind of basic

:30:38.:30:42.

defensive weaponry which we have an abundance. We would train them

:30:42.:30:47.

openly, not covertly we would help them organise. We can do that I

:30:47.:30:51.

presume on the territory of neighbouring countries. We can

:30:51.:30:54.

create protected zones operating out of Turkey. But the important

:30:55.:31:01.

thing is to have a strategy. Could that work, you heard about the idea

:31:01.:31:06.

of being involved, intervention? haven't heard anything, actually.

:31:06.:31:10.

There is obviously a lack of strategy, how can you succeed in

:31:10.:31:12.

anything if you don't have a strategy. He fails to see peace, he

:31:13.:31:17.

says it is going to fail and it is going to fail if they don't see it,

:31:17.:31:23.

the others or the US. I don't believe that somebody with such

:31:23.:31:27.

humanitarian deSAS ters on his CV to give me a strategy. The army

:31:27.:31:31.

would need to progress but in the wrong direction. If you are heading

:31:31.:31:35.

on the wrong direction the last thing you need is a progress. You

:31:35.:31:38.

need a peaceful strategy for solution. We are past that aren't

:31:38.:31:45.

we? No we are not. There is the lovely idea of the conference with

:31:45.:31:48.

the Russians but it is not going to happen.

:31:48.:31:53.

It is going in the right direction towards peace. You know the Free

:31:53.:31:57.

Syrian Army high command, would you be confident that if rebels were

:31:57.:32:04.

armed it would get into the right hand? Definitely, I would like

:32:04.:32:08.

first to highlight that the relationship between the commanders

:32:08.:32:14.

of the Free Syrian Army and the US add minutes and the European Union,

:32:14.:32:19.

this relationship has been well established, communication has been

:32:19.:32:28.

open and understanding of mutual a greeplt -- agreement being reached.

:32:28.:32:34.

Over and over there has been relayed the point of view regarding

:32:34.:32:37.

Syria about...That Is the top of the high command, what about the

:32:37.:32:46.

defections lower down that you can't stop? I'm sorry I didn't hear

:32:46.:32:50.

the question. There have been defections from within the Free

:32:50.:32:53.

Syrian Army, people turning to Islamist groups instead, Al-Qaeda-

:32:53.:33:00.

linked groups instead? This is not a defection in the general word of

:33:00.:33:04.

defection. The fighters on the ground are lack weapons, they are

:33:04.:33:08.

lacking food, they are lacking supplies. They are looking for

:33:08.:33:13.

somebody to support them. We in the western Hemisphere we have an

:33:13.:33:19.

option to be the side that can provide all of these means by

:33:19.:33:25.

providing arms and support to the Free Syrian Army commanders. Then

:33:25.:33:31.

gathering all of these fighters, or by creating a vacuum, which is what

:33:31.:33:35.

we have been doing for the past two years. We have allowed extremists

:33:35.:33:40.

and radical groups to attract these fighters. It is very clear, and

:33:40.:33:46.

that has been relaid very clear, that we have no interest in radical

:33:46.:33:50.

groups being in Syria. We have no interest in chemical weapons being

:33:51.:33:55.

in the future of Syria. We are working hard to control our

:33:55.:33:59.

fighters so they can abide by the international law. Would you feel

:33:59.:34:03.

confident, from what you have heard, then, that there are groups that

:34:03.:34:07.

have worked properly with US force that is you would feel confident

:34:07.:34:15.

about arming in this situation? Confident might be a word you can't

:34:15.:34:21.

use in this situation at this point. Would you do it? I feel reasonably

:34:21.:34:27.

confident that if continue to sit on our hands and do nothing the

:34:27.:34:31.

choice will be either between essentially an Assad controlling

:34:31.:34:35.

Syria, which we understand said was unacceptable, or extremist groups

:34:35.:34:39.

taking over. We need to find a third force, hopefully there is one,

:34:39.:34:46.

or we are definitely the loser. 80,000 casualties and two years of

:34:46.:34:54.

inaction? Exactly and 200 people dying a day. $100 million losses a

:34:54.:34:58.

day. It has to stop, you end war with a political decommission, not

:34:58.:35:02.

with an army who doesn't know who is a prter in. When the choices are

:35:02.:35:08.

getting limited by the day. Now the arming is a choice to combat Al-

:35:08.:35:11.

Qaeda, not the ray genome. It is getting extremely complex. You

:35:11.:35:14.

don't know who is fighting against who. The more people holding a

:35:14.:35:18.

weapon the more likely they will go to Al-Qaeda the next day. You can't

:35:18.:35:22.

keep them under control. I would say it is extremely complex and we

:35:22.:35:30.

have to head to peace. Thank you very much indeed. No-one knows

:35:30.:35:35.

where the virus has come from, but the World Health Organisation has

:35:35.:35:40.

warned it can be passed by close personal contact. The global

:35:40.:35:45.

outbreak has called killed 18 people and infected 34. In France a

:35:46.:35:50.

man is in intensive care after sharing a room with the country's

:35:50.:35:53.

first victim. Most of the cases have been in Saudi Arabia or

:35:53.:35:57.

affecting those travelling in the Middle East. The virus appears to

:35:57.:36:04.

be incubated by bats. It was the virus that caused widespread alarm

:36:04.:36:11.

in the world's most populated country. 8,000 infections and 800

:36:11.:36:16.

deaths. The SARS virus back in 2003. Now a new virus from the same

:36:17.:36:22.

family has scientists on alert again. The focus this time has not

:36:23.:36:27.

been Hong Kong and China, but the Middle East. In Saudi Arabia at the

:36:27.:36:30.

weekend, the World Health Organisation gave the latest update.

:36:30.:36:35.

The different clusters seen in multiple countries increasingingly

:36:35.:36:43.

support the hypothesis that when there is close contact this novel

:36:43.:36:47.

corona virus can transmit from person-to-person, this pattern of

:36:47.:36:50.

person-to-person transmission has remained limited to small clusters.

:36:50.:36:55.

So far there is no evidence that this virus has the capacity to

:36:55.:36:59.

sustain generalised community transmission. Since last year there

:36:59.:37:06.

have been confirmed cases in Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates,

:37:06.:37:11.

and most prevalently in Saudi Arabia. In February this year a

:37:11.:37:14.

cancer sufferer from Birmingham died after contracting the virus.

:37:14.:37:19.

Husband us husband is thought to have caught the virus from his

:37:19.:37:24.

father who was travelling to Saudi Arabia, his father died in March.

:37:24.:37:28.

worrying feature of the SARS virus, is a patient could infect a large

:37:28.:37:31.

number of people, often healthcare workers in hospitals. We saw

:37:31.:37:36.

examples where maybe 70 people were exposed during a single clinical

:37:36.:37:40.

episode. A large number of those people became infected and a large

:37:40.:37:45.

number died. That hasn't happened with this particular corona virus.

:37:45.:37:49.

It seems much more limited in its ability to spread from person-to-

:37:49.:37:53.

person. We have had to look quite hard to find the clusters which are

:37:53.:38:00.

some what hospital-based. The virus is a new form of corona virus. A

:38:00.:38:05.

family which have spikey surfaces, hence corona, or crown. Scientists

:38:05.:38:09.

have a lot of unanswered questions about the latest form, not least

:38:09.:38:17.

where it came from. Most outside, would point to the bat.

:38:17.:38:21.

For years we overlooked these bats. There are still I don't knows of

:38:21.:38:28.

them around. They are in great numbers, they freak close together.

:38:28.:38:31.

We are realise -- frequent close together. We realise they are the

:38:31.:38:35.

source of a lot of viruses. The finger is pointing at the bat. But

:38:35.:38:39.

how do we come in contact with a bat. We might if bats are up in the

:38:39.:38:44.

Belfry or the roof of the house. That is one way. But the bats

:38:44.:38:49.

themselves could come in contact with a rat, who comes in contact

:38:49.:38:56.

with a camel in the area and we go to the camel farms. At the moment

:38:56.:38:59.

to get infects we have to have a connection with the Middle East and

:38:59.:39:04.

a source. Last month a case crept up in France. A 65-year-old man,

:39:04.:39:08.

who had recently visited Dubai. Then last week a 50-year-old man in

:39:08.:39:12.

the same hospital room caught the virus from that first case. The new

:39:12.:39:16.

French cases are the first to suggest the virus has been passed

:39:16.:39:20.

between people with less close contact than a family setting. It

:39:20.:39:24.

raises the possibility it can be spread in the air. People have

:39:24.:39:28.

always moved around. But now that we can reach pretty much anywhere

:39:28.:39:33.

on earth within 24 hours, so can a virus. The fact that so far this

:39:33.:39:37.

virus seems to have one home base is reassuring. But what scientists

:39:37.:39:41.

are watching for is any sign that it can spread beyond small clusters

:39:41.:39:46.

in a way that is sustained. Most corona viruses prefer to just

:39:46.:39:52.

multiply in one host. So we have our own corona viruses, cows have

:39:52.:39:57.

their own corona viruses as do bats. Normally they don't particularly

:39:57.:40:06.

like mult supplying in cells from a host that is not -- multiplying in

:40:06.:40:11.

cells from a host that is not their own. This virus can multiply in

:40:11.:40:15.

cells that are in different animals, or it might be able to have

:40:15.:40:18.

different reservoirs and be transmitted today humans from

:40:18.:40:21.

different sources. That is a worrying feature. What is the best

:40:21.:40:29.

way of limiting the spread of this new virus? There is no anti-virl

:40:29.:40:35.

drug, or magical cure for these viruses. You feel awful, there is

:40:35.:40:38.

no vaccine, it is best not to get infect in the first place. How do

:40:38.:40:43.

we avoid that. I will go to Dubai tomorrow, and I will avoid going to

:40:43.:40:47.

farms or on any desert trips and looking in caves where there could

:40:47.:40:50.

be bats. I will increase my hygiene level. That means proper low

:40:50.:40:55.

watching your hand and a bit of social distancing. However awkward

:40:55.:40:58.

that might be to an English person, moving away from someone a cough,

:40:59.:41:07.

that is what you really have to do. We know this virus can kill, we

:41:07.:41:11.

don't know if many others have been exposed to it and shown milder

:41:11.:41:17.

systems. Scientists are waiting for test results to help answer that

:41:17.:41:20.

question, that and many others they have about this virus. We are

:41:20.:41:27.

joined from Maryland by Dr Fauci, a leading scientist and immunologist.

:41:27.:41:34.

He as also an adviser to the White House on medical and public health

:41:34.:41:37.

preparedness against disease and threat. His organisation is

:41:38.:41:42.

investigating the nature of the corona virus. I want to ask you

:41:42.:41:45.

whether that sound realistic, this idea of social distancing when you

:41:45.:41:50.

travel. Is that something people should be reallying on board now?

:41:50.:41:55.

think if you see someone who is coughing very aggressively, you

:41:55.:42:00.

want to avoid them. Trying to modify just your every day social

:42:00.:42:04.

interaction is probably not a practical thing. These people get

:42:04.:42:09.

infected, they get rather sick. There have been 34 infections in 18

:42:09.:42:14.

dates. When a person gets infected they generally start coughing and

:42:14.:42:19.

would spread it that way. If you are talking about social distancing.

:42:19.:42:23.

By avoiding that, washing your hand and doing the usual type of hygiene

:42:23.:42:29.

you would do to avoid any respiratory infections, such as

:42:29.:42:34.

influenza, that would be important. Pure social discipline is difficult

:42:34.:42:38.

to implement. This idea of the origin coming from bats. Does that

:42:38.:42:46.

make sense to you? The way it has travelled through the system?

:42:46.:42:49.

makes perfect accepts. Different species have different viruses

:42:49.:42:55.

associated with them. When you do molecular sequencing of the corona

:42:55.:42:58.

virus affecting people in the Middle East, it is very similar to

:42:59.:43:06.

a bat corona virus. The question is, are humans getting it from direct

:43:06.:43:10.

exposure to bats. Or are bats infecting another mammal and the

:43:10.:43:15.

human are getting infected by being exposed to the secondary or

:43:15.:43:18.

tertiary host. Right now we really don't know what the source is, even

:43:19.:43:23.

though we do know that the virus itself is related very much to a

:43:23.:43:27.

bat corona virus. That is still a mystery. When you are looking for

:43:27.:43:32.

the source how easy is it to work with the health departments of

:43:32.:43:38.

other Governments, particularly within the Middle East? Well the

:43:38.:43:42.

health departments right now there is an alert out, WHO particularly,

:43:42.:43:46.

here in the United States we are following this very, very closely,

:43:46.:43:51.

because of the events that have occurred for example in the UK and

:43:51.:43:54.

in France. Where people have travelled from the Middle East to

:43:54.:43:58.

countries like the UK and France. So when we have people coming from

:43:58.:44:01.

the Middle East here who have respiratory symptoms, which is very

:44:02.:44:06.

common and doesn't have to be the corona virus, we make sure we watch

:44:06.:44:10.

them carefully and have them see a if I igs and get them checked out,

:44:11.:44:15.

if -- physician, and get them checked out if it is an exposure.

:44:15.:44:19.

We hear it is difficult to get information out of Saudi Arabia,

:44:19.:44:22.

which seems to be he is enter of the virus, they are not offering up

:44:22.:44:28.

what is going on? Well I'm not so sure that is the case. The WHO

:44:28.:44:33.

officials as well as the CDC officials, our own CDC in the

:44:33.:44:36.

United States have had pretty good communecations with the Saudi

:44:36.:44:41.

officials. They have reported that in fact they have had clusters of

:44:41.:44:48.

what looks like human-to-human transmission in Saudi Arabian

:44:48.:44:54.

health facilities. They are being open about that. Just before we go

:44:54.:44:58.

and I show you the papers, Manchester City have confirmed they

:44:58.:45:04.

have sacked their manager, Roberto Macini, after the defeat in the FA

:45:04.:45:09.

Cup Final against Watford. Sorry, Wigan, that will be two new

:45:09.:45:19.
:45:19.:45:19.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 42 seconds

:45:19.:46:01.

The commander of the International Space Station Chris Hadfield comes

:46:01.:46:10.

back to earth this evening, after regaling us with YouTube videos

:46:10.:46:17.

while in space. He has decided to delight or traumatise David Bowie

:46:18.:46:25.

fans. # This is Major Tom to ground

:46:25.:46:27.

control # I've left forever more

:46:27.:46:36.

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