21/05/2013 Newsnight


21/05/2013

Stories behind the headlines. Is the NHS A&E service in crisis, why are stocks booming and are cheap clothes to blame for working conditions in Bangladesh? With Jeremy Paxman.


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Transcript


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Like the boy who cried wolf, we In $:/STARTFEED. Like the boy who

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cried wolf, we have heard NHS crisis forever, but more people are

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joining the chorus. The cry goes up that Accident and Emergency

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departments are stretched to breaking point. Everyone agrees

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that places like this are under unprecedented strain, unanimity

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rapidly disappears when it comes to discussing the cause. As the head

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of the NHS announces his retirement, we will ask can the health service

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get its house back in order. Also tonight :

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Pure animal spirits, if you find this incomprehensible, it is

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nothing to why the stock markets are behaving so wildly. What is

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there to be so upbeat about. Cheap fashion bought in blood, how

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much are we in the west to blame for the conditions that caused the

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catastrophe in Bangladesh. We talk to Nobel Prize winner,

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Muhammad Yunus, about the price of progress.

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What is it about the golf shock that has the men in blazers in such

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:01:32.:01:34.

a tizz that they are banning it. If you have been unlucky enough to

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need an emergency visit to hospital at the moment, you will be well

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aware of the unhappy state of many of our Accident and Emergency

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departments. The quality care commission says demand is out of

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control. The NHS federation says the service is getting closer and

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closer to the cliff edge, and it is all the fault of the last Labour

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Government, according to the Health Secretary today. He claims it was

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the deal they did with GPs that meant people were left with no out

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of hours alternative. For good measure the boss of the NHS in

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England has decided to quit next year.

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When the people we rely on in an emergency say they are facing their

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own emergency well perhaps we should take notice. Daily we are

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hearing alarmed voices telling us of a crisis in Accident and

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Emergency department, rising numbers putting intolerable strain

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on the system. At a Select Committee this morning MPs heard a

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startling statistic. The change in last year and this year is 250,000

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new attendances. We will talk about raw figures, that is five emergency

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departments each seeing those Attendances were stable from the

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1980s to 2003 they rose sharp low, over the last decade there is a 50%

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increase in numbers. Places like this are clearly

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feeling the strain. One telling statistic, the maximum four-hour

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wait at A&E is more and more being missed. So much for the symptoms,

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what about the cause? The current Government is clear the blame goes

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back to the previous administration and their botched renegotiation of

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the GPs' out of hours contract. Since those changes 90% of GPs have

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opted out of providing out of hours care, and they have got a pay rise

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in addition. And as a result of those disastrous changes to the GP

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contract we have seen a significant rise in attendances at A&E. Indeed

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four million more people are using A&E every year. If the GP contract

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is the root cause, as the Secretary of State claims, can he explain why

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98% people were seen within four hours in 2009, five years after the

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contract was signed. But has deteriorated sharply under his

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Government, and mainly on his watch. One thing is certainly true, since

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the changes there have been some very well publicised failings in GP

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out of hours air. An out of hours service in Cambridge flew in a

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German GP, and a man paid with his life. A recent survey by the

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Patients' Association found 65% of people don't feel safe relying on

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NHS out of hours services, in a medical emergency. A doctor from

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The Royal College of Physicians told the committee today that

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patients now prefer what he called the recognised brand of A&E. That

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is where patients will go because they know they will see someone who

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is expert, will see them often within four hours, and they will

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receive treatment. Patients will go where the lights are on. In many of

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these alternatives the lights are not on after 5.00pm or at the

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weekends. We have to face up to the fact that services other than A&E

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departments are often run own a 9-5 and elective basis. But health

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economists, who study the long-term trends suggest that blaming GPs is

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wrong. We have seen a long-term trend in increases in A&E

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attendance, people seem more willing to go to A&E instead of

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caring for themselves. We have made it easier, people wait a lot less

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time now, in some senses it is more convenient, of course the

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population is ageing and has more multiple conditions. It is not that

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surprising that there is a long- term trend. But we see impact

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whatsoever from the change in the GP contract. If the new GP can't

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isn't to blame for people going to A&E, what is? We have these type

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one and two A&E clinics, the walk- in clinics, they create demand, in

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a way that opening a road seems to create more traffic. There is a

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phenomenon in the health service where we open things and people

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come. We have seen this big increase over the last couple of

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decades in medical admissions. These are the emergency admissions,

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people who are really quite seriously ill. They have these have

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been increasing, I think this may be at the heart of the current

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problems in A&E. It is not so much the numbers of people coming have

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increased in the last couple of years. They haven't really, it has

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been relatively flat. We have seen an increase in the number of

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seriously ill people who need admission. If anyone is sorting out

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the problems in A&E, it probably won't be this man, David Nicholson,

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under fire after the mid-staffs scandal has announced today he will

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be retiring next year. The size of his pension pot, �1.9 million, will

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undoubtedly prove controversial. Someone else has a big job in front

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of them. Joining us now is Dr Bernadette Garrihy, an Accident and

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Emergency consultant in the West Midlands, who signed the letter

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saying A&E is in state of crisis in her area. With us also is Dr Claer

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Gerada, the chair of the college of GPs, and the former Health

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Secretary, Stephen Dorrell, who now chairs the Health Select Committee.

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How bad is it, Dr Garrihy? It is getting pretty bad, and has been

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getting bad for a number of years as was alluded to there. We are

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seeing attendance rates going up year-on-year in the order of 3-5%.

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In some areas it is even higher, particularly out of hours. What we

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are also seeing, as your speaker mentioned earlier, is the mixture

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of cases that we are seeing now. We are seeing higher percentages of

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patients with major illnesses and injuries, who have more complex

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needs, and who put greater demands on the system. What are you talking

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about there and what increases? increasingly elderly population who

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come to hospital, who often have underlying co-morbidties, possibly

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dementia, respiratory problems. And develop what in younger people

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could be a minor infection and can be easily dealt with. Where were

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they before? Coming from old homes or residential and nursing homes

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that can't provide the level of nursing care that they require when

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they become so well. Not only are they pitching up in Accident and

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Emergency, they are having to be admitted. They can't just be

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discharged with antibiotics like a younger person. One doesn't want to

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be overexcited, but is this a dangerous situation? Of course it

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is. Patients like this will frequently die of infections that

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may seem at the beginning relatively minor, but can very

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rapidly deteriorate. What do you think is behind this increase,

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Stephen Dorrell? I think we have just heard that there is actually a

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changing pattern of the conditions that type of patients we are

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dealing with. We are dealing with a rising elderly population, more of

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whom are suffering not just from one condition but multiple

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conditions. It is partly around the changing demand patterns. There are

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also social pressures at play. There is undoubtedly a rise in

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attendances at A&E as a result of alcohol and drug abuse. Some of the

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pressures in A&E, we were told in the Select Committee this morning

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are caused by slow movement of patients through Accident and

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Emergency, and an inability on some owecations to admit to hospitals

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those that should be admitted out of A&E out of hospital. Is it an

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exaggeration to use the word "crisis" in A&E? "crisis" is a word

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to be avoided by praktitsing politicians, but it is getting

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worse and needs to be addressed. According to the Health Secretary

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it is all your fault. It is the consequence of the deal that the

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Labour Government did with GPs? Isn't it a shame that again we are

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scapegoating GPs. There were so many inaccracy in the piece. It was

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fantastic deal? Blaming a contract that is ten years old for a crisis

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that has occurred in the last few months. And GPs have never

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abdicated responsibility for out of hours, we do it all day, all night,

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we do it throughout of hours services. Have you tried to get out

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of hours cover from your local GP? I did out of hours yesterday. Many

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GPs do. No they don't? Many do out of hours. We have had a problem

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with GP Co-Ops being replaced by commercial organisations. I think

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what we have to do now is move on. We have actually got to find a

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solution to this, which is a whole system solution. In general

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practice we have seen an enormous increase in demand, we need to sort

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it. Shifting downstream isn't going to make it any better. Engage first

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of all with that question of GPs? Jeremy Hunt didn't actually say

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today it was all the fault of GPs, he did say the GP contract led to a

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significant increase in salaries for GPs. And decrease in out of

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hours care? They don't any longer accept clinical responsibility for

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out of hours care delivered to their patient. That, I think, is a

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mistake. There are plenty of other factors at play. Is there a

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confusion here, people don't know where to go? I think that is

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certainly an element of it. Things like the walk-in centres and minor

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injury units, people aren't always aware they are there. Everybody

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knows where their local Accident and Emergency department is. And

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everybody knows that they don't need an appointment, and everybody

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knows that it doesn't close. That's the reason people come to us.

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think we need to explode this myth that GPs are sitting there between

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9-5 twiddling their thumbs. Nobody said that. GPs have seen a 100%

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increase in their workload over the last ten years, and it is unfair to

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ask a GP after an 11-hour day, a tired GP, to then go and do an out

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of hours shift. We need to sort out fragmentation of our patients and

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sorting out continuity. Can I pick up that point. That, I think, is

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actually, from the evidence we heard in the Select Committee this

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morning is the key to the way through this. Nobody is in favour

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of doctors or nurses or any other clinician working exceptionally

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long hours. That is bad for the clinician and bad for the patient.

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What we do have to learn to do is work smarter and trying to have a

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solution for Accident and Emergency separate from a solution from

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primary care, separate from a solution for social care. All of

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these bits of the system need to work in a much more joined-up way.

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That's part of the means by which we identify patients at risk

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earlier, avoid them need to go attend either the GP or the A&E

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department, because you prevent them becoming ill in the first

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place. But to do that we need more GPs, we have a shortage of GPs now.

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We need an integrated approach to this, identifying high-risk

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patients, providing bespoke solutions to some of our high-risk

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patients, including the frail and elderly and those at the end of

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their lives. While this is happening there are some issues I

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would like to take you up on Claire, first of all this is not something

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that has happened in the last few month. This has been building for a

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number of years. We have seen a winter and spring like we have

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never seen before, sustained, relentless pressure. It is

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happening in primary care, I accept as well, but we have seen ourselves

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operating at the margins of safety in emergency medicine in a way we

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don't accept. Also could I just say, yes we do have significant work

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force issues, we can't recruit junior doctors into emergency

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medicine any more. Why? Because they see how unattractive and

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unsustainable a career it is. The college of medicine is advocating

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there be a drive for job plans that are sustainable. We can deliver

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care, we are people who are working seven days a woke, we are people

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who are working 11 hof hours a day and providing out of hours cover.

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Given there is a problem here, you are reluctant to call it a crisis,

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others are. How do we go about solving it? As I have said, the

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most important single thing we can do is to join the different bits of

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the system up. It is common sense, Jeremy, is it not, that if you know

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somebody is getting ill, you intervene earlier to avoid them

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becoming acutely ill, so they need to go out of hours or any other

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time to an A&E department. I think GPs need to take that

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responsibility for commissioning all out of hours services right

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across. We need to also participate the provision of out of hours with

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other providers. Your own figures don't show a massive link. There is

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a 1% increase in A&E attendences and 2% year on year for A&E

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admissions. That is in line with population. You work incredibly

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hard, emergency doctors work incredibly hard in very difficult

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conditions, but we can't scapegoat GPs. You made that point already.

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There is one other thing today that has happened which is the decision

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of Sir David Nicholson to quit the health service. Julie Bailey who

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started Cure the NHS joins us now from a remote studio. What was your

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reaction to hearing that Sir David Nicholson was on his way? Well

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we're pleased, because it will be a new start for the NHS. But at the

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same time disappointed that he's been allowed to retire. This man

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should be sacked. He's failed, look at the disaster that's going on in

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your studio now. All this isn't rocket science, this should be

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planned for. This is much bigger than one man? But he's at the top.

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That's his job. He's the chief executive of the NHS. Is your

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argument that it's a consequence of the cuts, which he was charged with

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implementing? It would be foolish to say it was the cuts, it is his

:16:13.:16:18.

style of leadership as well. He has failed. He has been failing the NHS

:16:18.:16:22.

for years. All this that is happening at the moment should have

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been planned for. We knew there was an increase in the ageing

:16:26.:16:31.

population, we knew there was a shortage of A&E consultants, this

:16:31.:16:35.

is just, this is his job. This is what should have been happening in

:16:35.:16:40.

the NHS. It is called long-term planning. We just do everything at

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the last minute, that is why we are in this crisis. Do you accept there

:16:44.:16:49.

is a failure of strategic planning, Stephen Dorrell? Where Julyy Moore

:16:49.:16:55.

is undoubtedly right. Bailey? Bailey, apologies, is undoubtedly

:16:55.:17:02.

right is to say, as was illustrated in mid-staffs, that there has been

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failure of culture in too many places around the health service, I

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do agree with that. I don't believe a single individual, in the form of

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Sir David Nicholson, a distinguished public servant,

:17:14.:17:18.

should be pilloried in the way that Julie just did. Moving forward, we

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have to find a commitment not just to react to individual crises, but

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to think through how the health and care system can be made more

:17:29.:17:32.

effective in responding to today's patients and their demands. That's

:17:32.:17:37.

where there has been a failure, not just by one man, but by the system

:17:37.:17:42.

over quite a long period. In all the reforms that a have taken place

:17:42.:17:46.

it is still not right? Indeed it is clearly not right. We have changed

:17:46.:17:50.

the management system, it could be said, again, what we haven't done

:17:50.:17:55.

is to change the way care is delivered to make it more joined up,

:17:55.:17:58.

more integrated, I'm pleased to say that is something that Jeremy Hunt

:17:58.:18:02.

and the Prime Minister have made it clear is now top of their health

:18:02.:18:07.

policy agenda. And I would say about time too. One could say we

:18:07.:18:11.

have far too many top-down reorganisations, part of the

:18:11.:18:16.

present crisis is we have been going through a transition for the

:18:16.:18:21.

last year and taken our eye off the ball, patient care, the issues in

:18:21.:18:28.

the emergency department, and deck backle of 111, to blame Sir David

:18:28.:18:31.

Nicholson is disingenious. everything is going so well, why

:18:31.:18:36.

don't I feel better? Is the way you might feel about what is happening

:18:36.:18:39.

in the stock markets. The Financial Times share index is higher than

:18:39.:18:43.

years, so too the Dow Jones in the states. Yet ordinary people don't

:18:43.:18:47.

feel any better off. Of course the index is just reflecting the casino

:18:47.:18:52.

aspect of capitalism. What is going on? For how much longer and to

:18:52.:18:58.

whose benefit? One for the recently appointed chief business

:18:58.:19:00.

correspondent. You might be surprised to know that

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despite the economic gloom markets are up. Not just a little bit. UK

:19:04.:19:10.

stocks, the FTSE, it is near its all-time high. Today the FTSE

:19:10.:19:17.

closed at its best level for more than 13 years, and it left the

:19:17.:19:20.

index just 30 points below the record high in December 1999, that

:19:20.:19:25.

was at the height of the dotcom boom. Some companies are doing well.

:19:25.:19:30.

But this well? And it is not just us. Look at the Japanese market the

:19:30.:19:36.

Nikkei, it soared, especially since last autumn. Well that's when the

:19:36.:19:43.

large-scale cash injection programme known as Obenomics was

:19:43.:19:48.

mooted. Japanese stocks are up about 45% since then. That is twice

:19:48.:19:53.

as much as what would be called a bull market, when prices rise 20%.

:19:53.:19:59.

And then there is the S & P in America, you can certainly see the

:19:59.:20:03.

affect of cash injections or quanative easing, QE for short in

:20:03.:20:13.

the United States. Each time there is a cash injection, QE1, QE-2 and

:20:13.:20:17.

the fancy version of praix twist, that is the Federal Reserve trying

:20:17.:20:27.
:20:27.:20:29.

to buy more in the long end and selling a bit on the short end. QE

:20:29.:20:32.

was supposed to help the real economy, there is not much soaring

:20:32.:20:42.
:20:42.:20:43.

there. The economy has not recovered, the US has recovered to

:20:43.:20:50.

level that is were higher than the 208 crisis, but the UK and Japan

:20:50.:20:53.

hasn't. The way it was supposed to work was to make households feel

:20:53.:20:58.

better, think of it this way. An American household you lose $10,000

:20:58.:21:03.

and the value of your house, but your stocks have risen by $10,000.

:21:03.:21:07.

Not everyone owns stocks, just the richer households. Now eventually

:21:07.:21:11.

the firms that have been benefiting from these markets they could

:21:11.:21:17.

invest more in the economy and that would help. But they may be wary of

:21:17.:21:21.

inflated share prices, where there is not much demand supporting it.

:21:21.:21:25.

Worse, investors are borrowing to buy stocks, it is even reaching

:21:25.:21:30.

worrying levels in the US. So the overall picture, of course, that

:21:30.:21:34.

low rates do help keep debt manageable in a slowly recovering

:21:34.:21:39.

economy. But could there be other trouble down the line? If lots of

:21:39.:21:41.

investors borrow too much, and there is not a great dole

:21:41.:21:48.

supporting those firms, then we may see markets take a tumble.

:21:48.:21:56.

With us now prominent economic thinkers, Gillian Tett, Allister

:21:56.:22:05.

Heath, and Robert Reich, political economist, author and Professor at

:22:05.:22:09.

Berkeley. Why are the markets so buoyant? Two reasons, firstly

:22:09.:22:13.

although this recovery hasn't been very good for countries or ordinary

:22:13.:22:16.

consumers t has been good for companies, corporate profits have

:22:16.:22:20.

been improving. But secondly, most importantly, you have had the

:22:20.:22:25.

central banks around the world inject $7 trillion worth of

:22:25.:22:28.

liquidity into the system by quanative easing, that money has to

:22:28.:22:32.

go somewhere, and right now, -- quantitative easing, that money has

:22:32.:22:37.

to go somewhere, and bond investors don't like the look of it and are

:22:37.:22:42.

putting it in equity instead. it anything to do with the real

:22:42.:22:46.

economy? Ultimately it does, we are seeing long-term the proportion of

:22:46.:22:50.

the economy going into wages is shrinking, going to real people,

:22:50.:22:54.

the proportion going to profits is increasing. Those profits do go to

:22:54.:22:58.

people but they are investors, not necessarily workers. Is this a good

:22:58.:23:02.

thing? It would be a good thing if the markets were sustainable, if

:23:02.:23:07.

the prices were the correct prices, I'm very worried, we are in a

:23:07.:23:11.

pretty large bubble building at the moment. I think yes corporate

:23:11.:23:16.

profits are very high as a share of GDP, at some point there will be a

:23:16.:23:22.

peak and it will reverse itself. you reckon it is a bubble? There

:23:22.:23:24.

are bubble-like tendencies, there is so much money around the system

:23:24.:23:28.

and it is pumping up asset prices. As of today we have not seen

:23:28.:23:32.

inflation going up, but we are seeing asset prices go up. The real

:23:33.:23:36.

question now is a psychological issue, if stock prices are rising,

:23:36.:23:39.

is that going to make people feel more confident and want to go out

:23:39.:23:43.

and spend money and actually get the economy going? Is it going to

:23:43.:23:48.

ignite animal spirits, or is it the case as Robert says, that it is a

:23:48.:23:51.

tiny proportion of investors benefiting from this, the elite are

:23:51.:23:55.

getting richer and drawing away from the rest of society. In which

:23:55.:23:58.

case, pumping up stock markets may not help get the middle-classes

:23:58.:24:04.

spending more money. In the United States we have about 10%, the

:24:04.:24:07.

richest 10% of the population owning about 90% of all shares of

:24:07.:24:13.

stock by value. They are doing very well. They are feeling very good,

:24:13.:24:16.

they are buying, but you can't sustain economic growth on the

:24:16.:24:19.

basis of just 10% of your population. Even if they are the

:24:19.:24:26.

very richest 10%. It is not desirable that stocks are racing --

:24:26.:24:30.

racing ahead in the way they are doing so? If it is based on the

:24:30.:24:33.

fundamentals, if not only companies are profitable, but if in fact

:24:33.:24:36.

these economies are fundamentally in good shape that would be one

:24:36.:24:41.

thing, they aren't. That is the underlying reality. We have the

:24:41.:24:46.

median wage in the United States, and also here in the UK, going down

:24:46.:24:50.

adjusted for inflation. One piece of good news, I think, if share

:24:50.:24:54.

prices do go up, it is easier for companies to raise money. We have

:24:54.:24:57.

seen quite a few companies recently go to the stock market and

:24:57.:25:01.

investors and raise a lot of money. If they do raise money, finally

:25:01.:25:04.

they might start spending more. In that respect it is directly helpful

:25:04.:25:07.

for the real economy. I think the real problem is, the underlying

:25:07.:25:11.

structure of the UK, of the US, of the eurozone economies is really,

:25:11.:25:15.

really grim, there is huge, huge problems. And those problems are

:25:15.:25:20.

not reflected in this incredible mood of optimisim in the stock

:25:20.:25:23.

market. One of the problems we see is the companies are taking very,

:25:23.:25:26.

very cheap money they are getting from central banks, and they are

:25:26.:25:30.

turning around and buying back their shares of stock. That is

:25:30.:25:34.

artificially pumping the stock prices up like steroids. But the

:25:34.:25:37.

actual underlying reality is anything but a profitable outlook.

:25:37.:25:41.

One of the very interesting things to pick up on that comment is if

:25:41.:25:45.

you look at the relationship or the pattern of unemployment versus

:25:45.:25:52.

equity prices or company earning revisions versus equity prices,

:25:52.:25:55.

historically they have tracked each other. In the last few years they

:25:55.:25:59.

have diverged, these numbers have been looked at recently, again, if

:25:59.:26:02.

you look at the costs for companies borrowing money, the credit spread

:26:02.:26:06.

for risky companies, and compare it to debt burdens, again you had a

:26:06.:26:08.

relationship that has broken down in the last two years. Something

:26:08.:26:13.

has changed in the last two years. Personally I suspect it is

:26:13.:26:17.

quantitative easing. What could or should Governments be doing in

:26:17.:26:23.

these circumstances? One thing, you have central banks on the look out,

:26:23.:26:28.

not so much for inflation but bubbles, they are slightly

:26:28.:26:33.

different. We don't want a repeat of leading up to 207-2008. We have

:26:33.:26:38.

to be careful. Governments over the long-term have got to worry about

:26:38.:26:41.

widening inequality. If your medium wages are not going up but going

:26:41.:26:45.

down, even though more people are being employed, you are not

:26:45.:26:47.

building your economy. You are actually undermining your economy.

:26:47.:26:51.

The bubble point is a key point here, I think central banks and

:26:51.:26:54.

Governments have done far too much to pump liquidity into the economy.

:26:54.:26:57.

They have gone too far. There was a big problem, they were trying to

:26:57.:27:02.

prevent another collapse and another 1930s-style depression, in

:27:02.:27:05.

Japan they are trying to reverse the effects of deflation, but they

:27:05.:27:11.

have gone too far, too much money is in the system. A lot of problems

:27:11.:27:14.

in 2006-2007, people not seeing the real risk out there, all the stuff

:27:14.:27:18.

is going back, the housing market has gone crazy again, the bond

:27:18.:27:22.

market is in a bubble and people are buying equities. It is a

:27:22.:27:26.

dangerous situation. The other way of saying is central banks have put

:27:26.:27:30.

foam on the runway to help the Government as they land a plane of

:27:30.:27:33.

structural reform. Everyone knows it will be difficult to implement

:27:33.:27:36.

the structural reform needed. Central banks are trying to ease a

:27:36.:27:39.

path. The problem is the politicians got addicted to the

:27:39.:27:42.

foam and they don't want to land the plane at all, essential low

:27:42.:27:46.

they are getting the excuse to keep delaying the hard reform, because

:27:46.:27:51.

guess what, the stock markets are rising, why do we have to swallow

:27:51.:27:58.

the bitter medicine. I love that picture. I would state it even more

:27:59.:28:02.

strongly, but a little bit different. As long as we have a

:28:02.:28:07.

fiscal policy that is embracing austerity, in which basically

:28:07.:28:11.

Governments are cutting spending, a monetary policy, that is a Central

:28:11.:28:16.

Bank policy that is very expansionry is a fundamentally

:28:16.:28:21.

imbalanced Government system. Contradictory? Contradictory and it

:28:21.:28:24.

leads to trouble. I'm one of those people who thinks the Government

:28:24.:28:27.

does have to cut spending, I don't think it is cutting very fast in

:28:27.:28:30.

the case of the UK. What we have seen in America is you can cut

:28:30.:28:34.

spending and have an economy that recovers. For me the Government

:28:34.:28:38.

should be really pushing through the structural and supply side

:28:38.:28:41.

reforms to make the economy more competitive and boost human capital,

:28:41.:28:44.

to improve incentives and try to make sure that companies have an

:28:44.:28:48.

incentive to start hiring and spending money again. When you look

:28:48.:28:52.

at a country like Japan, for example, is this a model that will

:28:52.:28:56.

work and we should follow? Exhibit A for why structural reforms matter,

:28:56.:29:02.

frankly. Right now the Central Bank is pumping money into the system,

:29:02.:29:05.

astonishing amounts, but the question for Japan is can an

:29:05.:29:10.

economy grow if its population is shrinking. Japan will need serious

:29:10.:29:13.

structural reform in getting women to work, older people and more

:29:13.:29:16.

immigration and getting companies to use their money much more

:29:16.:29:19.

efficiently to actually create sustainable growth. Structural

:29:19.:29:22.

reform, everybody likes structural reform, but it is one of those

:29:22.:29:27.

terms that has gone from obscurity to meaninglessness without any

:29:27.:29:32.

intervening period of coherence. Let's face it, there do need to be

:29:32.:29:38.

certain structures, flexibility is very nice. But I'm afraid I have to

:29:38.:29:43.

disagree with you, austerity is an absolute disaster, for Europe, the

:29:43.:29:47.

United States is gently putting the toe into the austerity pool and it

:29:47.:29:50.

is holding back economic growth. the case of the UK the Government

:29:50.:29:54.

is cutting by less than 1% a year in terms of total, pendure, I don't

:29:54.:29:58.

think that can be blamed for the problems we are in. One of the big

:29:58.:30:02.

problems is inflation has been too high and real wages have ground to

:30:02.:30:08.

a halt and real wages have suffered a huge amount. There has been

:30:08.:30:10.

massive unprecedented reduction in the purchasing power of people.

:30:10.:30:16.

Private sector wages are going roughly speaking up by zero%, you

:30:16.:30:21.

have inflation 2.5%. People are 7- 8% worse off than they were two or

:30:21.:30:25.

three years ago. That is having a huge effect. Again that is because

:30:25.:30:27.

of excessively loose monetary policy, the Bank of England has got

:30:27.:30:34.

it wrong on that. It is time for us all to slide from obscurity into

:30:34.:30:37.

meaningless and back into obscurity any way.

:30:37.:30:45.

In a moment, why has this golf shot been banned?

:30:45.:30:48.

A Government-appointed panel looking into the building collapse

:30:48.:30:51.

which killed over 1,000 people in Bangladesh has recommended that

:30:51.:30:56.

nine men, arrested by police, be different given life sentences. The

:30:56.:30:58.

worst industrial disaster of the century occurred in a building

:30:58.:31:02.

making cheap clothes for well known western brands. While the

:31:02.:31:06.

corruption of Bangladeshi officials and businessmen isn't necessarily

:31:06.:31:10.

their fault, and the economy of one of the world's poorest countries

:31:10.:31:14.

depends on their business, the disaster does raise questions,

:31:14.:31:20.

economic and ethical, for the west. 300 factories have re-opened after

:31:21.:31:27.

days in which workers struck in protest at pay and conditions in

:31:27.:31:35.

the wake of the claps of the Rana Plaza. Employees choosing to give

:31:35.:31:41.

up wages is one thing, but Bangladesh can't choose to free

:31:41.:31:44.

itself of the rag trade. It is the second biggest clothing

:31:44.:31:48.

manufacturer in the world, it is worth $20 billion and accounts for

:31:48.:31:54.

four fifths of exports. The factory collapse was the worst industrial

:31:54.:32:00.

disaster since the Bhopal poisoning in 1984. But the chain that runs

:32:00.:32:03.

from factory to department store is long and complicated.

:32:03.:32:07.

Responsibility is so often somebody else's duty. It wasn't the high

:32:07.:32:12.

street labels which ordered workers into a building which was visibly

:32:12.:32:15.

cracking. But just supposing that western retailers decided that

:32:15.:32:23.

Bangladesh was more trouble than it was worth? Professor Muhammad Yunus

:32:23.:32:27.

is probably the most famous Bangladeshi in the world, a winner

:32:27.:32:31.

of the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on microfinancial policies, to

:32:31.:32:36.

lift the very poorest out of poverty. He is with us now.

:32:36.:32:38.

Supposing, as I have heard people saying in this country, Bangladesh,

:32:38.:32:43.

bad place to make clothes, why not make them somewhere else. What do

:32:43.:32:47.

you say? Bangladesh is a very good place to make the garments. We have

:32:47.:32:51.

been doing it, we are the second- largest exporter of garments.

:32:51.:32:54.

People are appalled when they hear what people in Bangladesh are paid,

:32:54.:32:59.

and when they see something like this tragedy, these awful working

:32:59.:33:03.

conditions, you can understand them, what is the point of making them in

:33:03.:33:07.

Bangladesh. Can't we do it somewhere else, it would cost some

:33:07.:33:10.

more? We have problems, it doesn't mean the entire industry is going

:33:10.:33:14.

wrong. We have been doing very good work, we have been appreciated for

:33:14.:33:18.

our work. The thing that needed to be done, it is something we can put

:33:18.:33:23.

together, all of us, not just a blame game for the Bangladeshis not

:33:24.:33:27.

going it right. Everybody is involved in this. We are all

:33:27.:33:31.

partners in it. The garment industry gave Bangladesh a chance.

:33:31.:33:35.

We are coming from a peasant economy, for the first time we got

:33:35.:33:39.

involved in this industrial activity. It hasn't made you

:33:39.:33:43.

question whether this strategy hasn't made you question whether

:33:43.:33:47.

there was -- tragedy hasn't made you question whether it is a

:33:47.:33:49.

sensible strategy? The question is we haven't done enough, it is the

:33:49.:33:55.

beginning of the industry, a lot of things were doing in a rush. Buyers

:33:55.:34:00.

were involved and producers were and everyone involved in that. So

:34:01.:34:04.

trying to assign blame to one particular factor is difficult.

:34:04.:34:08.

Walking away from Bangladesh is not a solution. This is the first time

:34:08.:34:12.

this four million young girls, coming from the rural areas to the

:34:12.:34:17.

city. For the first time this is a tremendous social impact in the

:34:18.:34:22.

society, which is sleepy peasant society with remote villages with

:34:22.:34:25.

these women relegated to the back part of the house. They are not

:34:26.:34:29.

even seen in the front part of the house. They are coming out of that

:34:29.:34:34.

and came to the city and made a whole industry survive and become

:34:34.:34:39.

the second-largest exporter of garments next to China. This is a

:34:39.:34:42.

tremendous success. We should see both sides, the success part and

:34:43.:34:47.

also the other part. Should we pay for more our clothes? What I would

:34:47.:34:53.

say is you are paying very little for the wages. If what we produce

:34:53.:35:01.

we sell it for $5, the same thing sold here for $35, so out of that

:35:01.:35:05.

$5 the cotton growers and the cotton and the dyeing and the

:35:05.:35:08.

stitching people, and all those things make the $5. We need a

:35:08.:35:13.

little bit of room, people who have made that shirt whether they are

:35:13.:35:17.

getting the fair wage. So I'm suggesting why don't we come up

:35:17.:35:21.

with an international minimum wage, a fair wage. But this strategy that

:35:21.:35:28.

you praise, of taking people from peasant lives to manufacturing

:35:28.:35:31.

lives has been based on undercutting other parts of the

:35:31.:35:34.

world? It is not undercutting, Bangladesh became attractive

:35:34.:35:40.

because it is the "cheapest" labour. Undercutting other places? No these

:35:40.:35:43.

are people who didn't have any jobs. So whatever money they got they

:35:43.:35:49.

were happy with that. They came, but now the question is if you are

:35:49.:35:56.

paying say for example 25 cents an hour, if you make it 50 cents an

:35:56.:36:01.

hour, a dramatic change. It doesn't add much cost to the total product

:36:01.:36:03.

actually. The question of getting together rather than saying we have

:36:03.:36:08.

the cheapest labour, with the 50 cents it still would be the

:36:08.:36:11.

cheapest. Instead of pushing the wage down and all the competitions

:36:11.:36:16.

and all the things that are happening, mult light bar again is

:36:16.:36:22.

going on the poor -- ultimate bar again is going on these -- brgain

:36:22.:36:27.

is going on these poor women. could you ensure that some sort of

:36:27.:36:32.

surcharge would be implied there? It is not a surcharge it is

:36:32.:36:36.

guarnteeing a minimum wage. All civilised nations do that. All we

:36:36.:36:41.

are saying, I'm proposing that a minimum wage which is consistent

:36:41.:36:44.

with the market they are integrated with. They are partners in the

:36:44.:36:49.

whole business part. They should have their fair part of it. It is

:36:49.:36:56.

not sort of demanding something that is unreasonable. All the costs

:36:56.:37:00.

out of the $35, what percentage will go to the people who are

:37:00.:37:05.

making it. And does it help them? You know my family all came from,

:37:06.:37:10.

they were all in the textile trade, the textile trade has more or less

:37:10.:37:14.

disappeared from much of this country, it has gone to countries

:37:14.:37:17.

like yours. How can you possibly tell people in this country that

:37:17.:37:21.

they should pay for more clothes in order to subsidise wages on jobs

:37:21.:37:26.

that have been taken from this country and other ones? Well it is

:37:26.:37:32.

still, you will not do it for 25 cents, it is still such a tiny

:37:32.:37:36.

piece, that is why Pope Francis said it is slave labour. We are

:37:36.:37:41.

saying let's not make Bangladeshi women slave labourers, let as make

:37:41.:37:46.

them decent workers with a decent wage so they can take care of their

:37:46.:37:49.

level of life. We are not asking for western workers' lives, and

:37:49.:37:53.

nobody will work for 50 cents an hour here. You are quite right

:37:53.:37:56.

there. This is an opportunity for women. This is a whole

:37:56.:37:59.

transformation of the society. If we give them a trans, if we sit

:37:59.:38:05.

down together, we find the solution. It is all this solvable problems.

:38:05.:38:09.

The disaster has drawn attention from the whole world, and attention

:38:09.:38:13.

for the whole nation in Bangladesh. We need to take advantage of it and

:38:13.:38:16.

take it in an urgent basis, to come together and find the solution to

:38:16.:38:21.

this problem. Thank you very much. The incomes item is about golf,

:38:21.:38:26.

this would, in the normal course of things, be the cue for some unfunny

:38:26.:38:30.

jokes. It is serious, the men and women in blazers and unusual

:38:30.:38:36.

trousers who run the game in Britain and America, have decreed

:38:36.:38:40.

it unsporting for players to anchor their putters as they go for the

:38:40.:38:43.

hole. You wonder what on earth could be the offence committed by

:38:43.:38:48.

such an action. It is making the game too easy, apparently. So

:38:48.:38:53.

following months of soul searching the sports bosses today tackled the

:38:53.:39:02.

controversy head-on by introducing new rule 14 (1) (b) to outlaw the

:39:02.:39:07.

practice. We are announcing today that acting through our independent

:39:07.:39:11.

decision-making processes, the USGA and the RNA, have both now approved

:39:12.:39:18.

the adoption of rule 14-1 (b). Not everyone will agree with the final

:39:18.:39:23.

decision, but we do hope the care and love for the game that all have

:39:23.:39:28.

expressed through their participation in this process will

:39:28.:39:33.

facilitate acceptance of rule 14-1 (b) when it takes effect. We are

:39:33.:39:41.

joined on the Newsnight green by pro-golfer justice Fiddler. What

:39:41.:39:47.

does a Pro do? Play golf and a little bit of teaching. He's a big

:39:47.:39:53.

deal at the Royal St George's club in Kent. He's going to demonstrate

:39:53.:39:59.

the putt. Also with us is the club secretary, and joining us from kal

:39:59.:40:06.

Gary is the President of the Canned -- kal Gary is the President of the

:40:06.:40:16.
:40:16.:40:19.

Canned ian golf who was against the rule but will abide by it. This is

:40:19.:40:24.

the traditional standard length of putter, the actual stroke itself is

:40:24.:40:28.

a free-flowing stroke with the putter moving away from the body.

:40:28.:40:38.
:40:38.:40:40.

As I will demonstrate here. Well done! More practice needed. As you

:40:40.:40:44.

can see the main difference being is the length of putter. This is

:40:44.:40:49.

the one that is going to be banned? This is the one, not the putter

:40:49.:40:55.

itself, the way you set up to the ball and the stroke. So the main

:40:55.:40:58.

difference being, so with the stroke it is a free-flowing

:40:58.:41:08.
:41:08.:41:12.

movement, but the putter itself is anchored into the belly. It is not

:41:12.:41:17.

as good either! More practice needed. But it is actually seeming

:41:17.:41:23.

to me to be more difficult to get it in using that one? It is, I

:41:23.:41:29.

would find, I'm not, I use my shorter putter traditional putter.

:41:29.:41:35.

But the reason this is going to be not permissible is because of your

:41:35.:41:40.

tummy? It is attached to the body. You can use it in the belly, in the

:41:40.:41:44.

chest. So the putter is anchored itself. It is not moving away. That

:41:44.:41:48.

is supposed to make it easier? could make it easier for some, as I

:41:48.:41:53.

have proven there, not for myself. OK, well you stay there, you can do

:41:53.:41:59.

a bit of practising while we discuss. Now you are in favour of

:41:59.:42:05.

this new rule are you? I think it is that free movement of the club,

:42:05.:42:09.

whether it is with a driver, or indeed with a putter is probably

:42:10.:42:15.

the sort of ultimateest it of the game in that the golfer -- ultimate

:42:15.:42:20.

test of the game, whether a club player or professional has to

:42:20.:42:24.

deliver the ball in the right place to make it go. It is thought by

:42:24.:42:27.

anchoring the number of moving parts they are reduced and there is

:42:27.:42:31.

an advantage. He got one in, look?'S Doing well, he has been

:42:31.:42:36.

practising all afternoon. Let's go over to Calgary, are you hearing me

:42:36.:42:46.
:42:46.:42:47.

OK? I am hearing, thank you. Why do you think that this should be

:42:47.:42:56.

permitted this new style of putting? Well the PGA of Canada

:42:56.:43:01.

polled the almost 4,000 members and approximately 66% or two thirds of

:43:01.:43:05.

the members came back and did not support the anchor ban, which would

:43:05.:43:09.

be consistent of the PGA America when they polled their members,

:43:09.:43:14.

they came back with the same numbers. When the first proposal

:43:14.:43:20.

came out in the US GA, our concern was the fun and enjoyment of the

:43:20.:43:24.

game for the ordinary players, not so much the twoods of the game, for

:43:24.:43:30.

the every day enjoyment and fun of it. Since 208 and the industry has

:43:30.:43:34.

fallen -- 2008 and the industry has fallen back a bit, we need to make

:43:34.:43:37.

sure the golfers are coming out to the game and getting entrenched in

:43:38.:43:46.

the game. We have been losing them. We will engage with that question,

:43:46.:43:51.

your sport, or activity, it is a sport, it has a stuffy enough image

:43:51.:43:56.

any way, has a problem recruiting people. Why are you being so pen

:43:56.:44:02.

nickity? I think the -- person nickity? I think the problem has

:44:02.:44:06.

been people's lives, and speeding up the pace of play and access. The

:44:06.:44:10.

putting piece is really an attempt by the regulatory authorities to

:44:10.:44:20.

make sure that That free-flowing club is not compromised. Why does

:44:20.:44:24.

it matter, it is like batting the reverse sweeping cricket, what is

:44:24.:44:29.

the point? They are not, are they? They are not, precisely. There is

:44:29.:44:33.

this anchoring point that fundamentally changes the ethos of

:44:33.:44:39.

that stroke. If you tried it. Changes the ethos? The feel, ethos

:44:39.:44:44.

is a bad word. Entirely it changes, and all four major open winners

:44:44.:44:50.

currently use this way. There is no statistical proof it provides

:44:50.:44:55.

advantage. Why does it matter? think the authorities and the RNA

:44:55.:45:00.

and the golfing certainly public in the sku. I think have come down on

:45:00.:45:05.

the side -- in the UK, I think, have come down on the side that the

:45:05.:45:10.

game must be perpetuated. Is this further evidence of the stuffiness

:45:10.:45:17.

of golf authorities? Sorry can you repeat. Yes, I was asking whether

:45:17.:45:25.

you think this is evidence that the golf authorities are rather stuffy?

:45:25.:45:29.

I'm sorry you are breaking up I'm having trouble catching you there.

:45:29.:45:32.

Oh dear, I'm sorry about the communecation, we have terrible

:45:32.:45:36.

communication problems there. Thank you very much for sparing the time

:45:36.:45:40.

for joining you. Thank you two very much indeed. We will see that

:45:40.:45:43.

justice is done eventually. And some of tomorrow morning's front

:45:43.:45:53.
:45:53.:46:20.

pages, I did have them, I have lost That's all we have time for tonight.

:46:20.:46:30.
:46:30.:46:38.

Good evening, a largely dry night out there tonight. One or two

:46:38.:46:41.

showers can't be ruled out to take us into Wednesday morning. Most

:46:41.:46:46.

start the day dry. Varying amounts of cloud, a chilly start in

:46:46.:46:49.

Scotland, with the chill a strengthening wind, increasing

:46:49.:46:52.

risks of showers in the afternoon. One or two showers pushing through

:46:52.:46:55.

Northern Ireland. Still dry and bright here with sunny spells. The

:46:55.:46:59.

showers through the day in Scotland, the northern half of Scotland in

:46:59.:47:04.

particular becoming heavy with hail, sleet and snow over the higher

:47:04.:47:06.

ground, the wind reaching gale- force into Wednesday night. Much of

:47:06.:47:09.

central and western England will be dry. Down the eastern counties

:47:09.:47:13.

always a bit more cloud throughout the day, and increasing risk in the

:47:13.:47:18.

afternoon of a few showers popping up, very much hit and miss, most of

:47:18.:47:23.

you avoiding them, but they could be on the heavy side. Cool in

:47:23.:47:28.

eastern areas, average for the time of year. In the strengthening North

:47:28.:47:32.

West wind around some of these coasts it will feel cooler. The

:47:32.:47:36.

trend is to cooler conditions, if not colder by Thursday. This is the

:47:36.:47:42.

city forecast for northern areas, temperatures dropping away markedly.

:47:42.:47:44.

Showers becoming more frequent. Greater chance of getting wet on

:47:44.:47:47.

Thursday, it will feel significantly colder. Winds

:47:47.:47:51.

Is the NHS A&E service in crisis? Why are stocks booming? Are cheap clothes to blame for working conditions in Bangladesh? And golf. With Jeremy Paxman.


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