05/06/2013 Newsnight


05/06/2013

News stories with Jeremy Paxman. Including why the government can't let house prices fall, Labour and welfare, Paul Mason in Turkey and an Afghan interpreter's story.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 05/06/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

What goes up must come down. They claim. Except in the case of house

:00:15.:00:19.

prices, in an economy virtually on life support why does the

:00:19.:00:23.

Government think it is so important the housing market keeps on rising?

:00:23.:00:28.

So is the Chancellor's help to buy scheme moronic, as one expert put

:00:28.:00:32.

it today, we do a bit of economics 101.

:00:32.:00:36.

We will discuss what is so special about this market that makes it

:00:36.:00:42.

worth manipulating. This Afghan man risked his life for

:00:42.:00:48.

Britain as an interpreter, now he's in Germany as an illegal immigrant.

:00:48.:00:55.

I'm not free. I have no freedom and I have no life. Our political

:00:55.:01:00.

editor has news on what Ed Miliband will say Labour's going to do about

:01:00.:01:08.

the welfare system. And we're in Turkey again, not with the liberals

:01:08.:01:10.

protesting against the Prime Minister, tonight we hear from the

:01:10.:01:14.

people who put him in power and want him to stay there for as long

:01:14.:01:24.
:01:24.:01:27.

as humanely possible. Sitting comfortably, feeling your

:01:27.:01:31.

house increasing in value while you watch television. Six middle-aged

:01:31.:01:36.

people in ten in the south-east has assets worth more than half a

:01:36.:01:40.

million pounds, the biggest chunk is their house. It is not the same

:01:40.:01:44.

across the country and there are areas across the country. In some

:01:44.:01:46.

places house prices have more or less nothing to do with what people

:01:47.:01:51.

get in exchange for their labour. Yet Britain's politicians seem to

:01:51.:01:54.

have decided that owning property is a good thing in itself, they

:01:54.:01:59.

want to make it easier. The latest initiative stpor the taxpayer to

:01:59.:02:03.

help people with their -- is for the taxpayer to help people with

:02:03.:02:06.

their mortgages. What that really means is the taxpayer is

:02:07.:02:12.

contributing to a housing bubble. Every day someone else piles in to

:02:12.:02:16.

criticise George Osborne's help to buy scheme. Today it's Albert

:02:16.:02:20.

Edwards, the head of global strategy at Societe Generale, who

:02:20.:02:26.

calls it a "moronic policy", he joins a growing number of others

:02:26.:02:30.

including the Governor of the Bank of England, the IMF and the Office

:02:30.:02:34.

for Budget Responsibility who have all, in more polite terms,

:02:34.:02:37.

questioned the wisdom of the scheme. When the Government starts to lend

:02:37.:02:40.

people money who can't get money on commercial terms, this really is

:02:41.:02:45.

very dangerous. It is pumping money into a housing market where prices

:02:45.:02:48.

are already very high relative to earnings. Firstly, and secondly it

:02:48.:02:53.

is actually exposing the taxpayer to tremendous risks as well. What

:02:53.:02:57.

is the problem? To answer that we have to look at what's happened to

:02:57.:03:01.

the relationship between housing demand and housing supply. It is

:03:01.:03:05.

worth rembering that when economists talk about demand they

:03:05.:03:12.

are not just talking about want. We all "want" a five-bedroom house in

:03:12.:03:15.

the centre of London with a pool in the basement. The question is do we

:03:15.:03:19.

have the money to pay for it, if we can't afford it can we get someone

:03:19.:03:23.

to lend us the money. That is where the banks came in. These days they

:03:24.:03:28.

are a little less enthusiastic. At the moment banks are requiring

:03:28.:03:32.

borrowers to put more of their own money into a house purchase,

:03:32.:03:36.

typically a 20% deposit, that is the bank's insurance policy. The

:03:36.:03:40.

price of the house would have to fall 20% before the bank loses any

:03:40.:03:43.

money. Many buyers, even though they are happy to take on the debt

:03:43.:03:47.

can't come up with such a large deposit. Now obviously there are

:03:47.:03:51.

two things that could happen at this point to help achieve a sale.

:03:51.:03:54.

The first is, and obviously what the buyer would prefer is that the

:03:54.:03:59.

seller drops their price a bit. Now the seller would rather the buyer

:03:59.:04:09.
:04:09.:04:09.

magically found some extra cash from some other source. Well with

:04:09.:04:14.

help Help to Buy that is the taxpayer who helps lend the money

:04:14.:04:21.

to fill the gap. Under the scheme the buyer would stump up 5% and the

:04:21.:04:27.

bank stumping up 90%, and in this way the taxpayer will guarantee 20%

:04:27.:04:31.

of the loan. The Help will help thoughs denied the chance to buy

:04:31.:04:36.

their first home to buy their first home. In a market where first time

:04:36.:04:40.

buyers have been denied that chance for five years, it is important to

:04:40.:04:45.

give them a boost to allow them achieve their ambitions to become

:04:45.:04:48.

homeowners. But the scheme isn't so much aimed at helping buyers first

:04:48.:04:52.

time or otherwise as helping the housing market. One minister is

:04:52.:04:57.

quoted as saying the intention is to create a building boom, and he

:04:57.:05:02.

"couldn't care less who owns the bloody things". As it stands the

:05:02.:05:05.

Government hasn't ruled out the scheme to those buying second homes.

:05:05.:05:09.

Nor in the Commons today did the Prime Minister rule out helping

:05:09.:05:16.

foreign buyers. Will British tax- payers' money be used to fund the

:05:16.:05:19.

mortgages of foreign citizens who buy property here. The Chancellor

:05:19.:05:25.

will set out details in this in the announcements he plans to make.

:05:25.:05:29.

critics say that those struggling to get on the housing ladder would

:05:29.:05:33.

be better served by the Government letting prices fall, not

:05:33.:05:37.

intervening to help them borrow more money. It is very difficult

:05:37.:05:41.

for a Conservative Government both to allow house prices to fall

:05:41.:05:46.

naturally, but also to liberalise planning, given the sorts of areas

:05:46.:05:49.

that the coalition Government MPs represent. But actually if we are

:05:49.:05:54.

going to resolve the housing crisis in the UK what we need to do is

:05:54.:05:58.

liberalise supply. Critics say the result of this Government activity

:05:58.:06:02.

is to maintain house prices at a higher rate than the market would

:06:02.:06:06.

otherwise set. That obviously suits the people who build houses. The

:06:06.:06:11.

Government wants them to build more. But, could we be inflating another

:06:11.:06:16.

bubble? The figures show that house prices are still at historically

:06:16.:06:20.

high levels in terms of income. And, the latest numbers for housing

:06:20.:06:24.

starts and mortgage lending are both up too, but still at

:06:24.:06:30.

historically low levels. I am not worried at all about an inflation

:06:30.:06:33.

bubble. At the moment the market is about half what it should be in

:06:33.:06:37.

transactions and prices are being stagnating. This is not adding fuel

:06:37.:06:40.

to a fire, this is really giving a smoldering fire a little poke to

:06:41.:06:44.

keep it going. We already have a bubble in house prices which has

:06:44.:06:48.

never really properly deflated. This bubble is caused by

:06:48.:06:52.

restrictions on supply, it is the restrictions on supply that need to

:06:52.:06:57.

be tackled, not simply pumping more air into the balloon. This kind of

:06:58.:07:01.

housing market intervention of course doesn't have an entirely

:07:01.:07:05.

glorious his he troo. It was the US Government helping people buy

:07:05.:07:08.

houses who wouldn't otherwise afford them that was one of the

:07:08.:07:12.

causes of the sub-prime crash. One of the problems is Governments find

:07:12.:07:15.

it very easy to get into the mortgage business, far harder to

:07:15.:07:23.

get out. Jake Berry is a Conservative MP who spent time as

:07:23.:07:25.

parliamentary secretary to the Housing Minister and is now part of

:07:25.:07:32.

the Prime Minister's policy unit. Stuart Baisley is the executive

:07:32.:07:34.

chairman of the home builders association, representing most of

:07:34.:07:39.

those building new houses in this country. Nicola Horlick is a

:07:39.:07:42.

business woman who runs her own investment fund. What is it about

:07:42.:07:46.

the housing market that makes it legitimate to rig that market but

:07:46.:07:49.

not others? We are not talking about rigging the market. We are

:07:49.:07:52.

saying that we as a Government are absolutely determined to back hard

:07:52.:07:56.

working families who want to buy their first home, or move that up

:07:56.:08:00.

that property ladder. It is not about rigging a market. It is

:08:00.:08:04.

ensuring they get an affordable mortgage. You are interfering in

:08:04.:08:09.

the market. You are interfering in the market. I think it is frankly

:08:09.:08:12.

all very well for people sat around the table who already own their own

:08:12.:08:16.

home. Are you saying people should save up for 15 years. I'm not

:08:16.:08:19.

saying anything, I'm trying to get to the facts, you are intervening

:08:19.:08:24.

in this market in a way you think it is illegitimate to interfere. If

:08:24.:08:28.

you tried to fix, for example, something that is going on in

:08:28.:08:32.

banking that is illegitimate, is it not. This market you think it is OK

:08:32.:08:36.

to start rigging? In banking the Government has the Funding for

:08:36.:08:39.

Lending Scheme, which is about increasing lending to businesses,

:08:39.:08:42.

in housing we are doing something very similar. It is enabling people

:08:42.:08:45.

with a small deposit to get an affordable mortgage. Actually we

:08:45.:08:52.

are not talking about going back to ridik125% mortgage as in the last

:08:52.:08:55.

market. It is the principle of fixing the market, do you think

:08:55.:08:58.

this is an intervention in the market? I do, I think the result

:08:58.:09:01.

will be that house prices will rise and I think houses are too

:09:01.:09:06.

expensive in this country and too big a proportion of people's income

:09:06.:09:11.

is taken up by housing. It is reflected in the rental sector as

:09:11.:09:16.

well. If you have capital prices rising then wreoints go up. -- Then

:09:16.:09:20.

rents go up. You have to have a degree of sympathy, people can't

:09:20.:09:23.

afford to get into the market, this is a good thing isn't it? I don't

:09:24.:09:27.

think it is a good thing if house prices go up. It means for the next

:09:27.:09:31.

generation too much of their income will be taken up in housing costs.

:09:31.:09:36.

The overall cost of this is huge, it is �3.5 billion. Whilst I agree

:09:36.:09:39.

it is good to inject money into the economy, I would much rather than

:09:39.:09:42.

money was spent on building hospitals and schools rather than

:09:42.:09:45.

more houses. We are actually talking about the next generation

:09:45.:09:48.

because it is about helping first time buyers to take the first step

:09:48.:09:51.

on the ladder. Not everyone has the ability to go and take money from

:09:51.:09:56.

the bank of mum and dad to come up with that big deposit. If people

:09:56.:10:00.

are financially stable and can afford the mortgage and save a 5%

:10:00.:10:03.

deposit they should be able to buy their own home. The problem with

:10:03.:10:07.

these types of schemes is someone will come along and reverse the

:10:07.:10:11.

policy and the prop is taken away and those people may find a

:10:11.:10:16.

negative equity when prices go down again. Can I clarify a point of

:10:16.:10:21.

fact, this is only for first time buyers is it? No, but it does

:10:21.:10:24.

enable first time buyers to enter the market. We don't know if it is

:10:24.:10:28.

only for British people, do we? Labour Party has made great play of

:10:28.:10:34.

saying this will enable foreign nationals to buy property, it with

:10:34.:10:39.

huge loo complicated EU rules around this, the -- hugely

:10:39.:10:42.

complicated EU rules on this and the Government is working to make

:10:42.:10:45.

sure they don't get the benefit of the guarantee. You have introduced

:10:45.:10:49.

a policy and you are not sure whether under the policy a Romanian

:10:49.:10:54.

plumber will be able to move to this country with his family and

:10:55.:10:59.

get tax-payers' money? This policy isn't about Romanian plumbers, it

:10:59.:11:03.

is not hoards of people waiting to make money out of the property

:11:03.:11:06.

market. This is about people buying their own people, people in areas

:11:06.:11:09.

like I represent in Lancashire, want to go buy their own home, not

:11:09.:11:13.

as a money-making exercise but a safe place to bring their family

:11:13.:11:16.

out. You don't know what will happen with those people, you have

:11:16.:11:21.

just said so? The Labour Party removed the nationality

:11:21.:11:24.

qualification from all Government housing policy, we are looking at

:11:24.:11:27.

closing the loopholes. You love this, because it is the taxpayer

:11:27.:11:31.

giving you money? We like the scheme. We have been talking to the

:11:31.:11:35.

Government for schemes like this. Of course you do, it is money for

:11:35.:11:38.

free? We have to put it in the context that we are in a major

:11:38.:11:41.

housing crisis and it has been building for the best part of 20

:11:41.:11:44.

years. It is not just a function of the economic recession. What has

:11:44.:11:48.

happened in the economic recession over the last five years one of the

:11:48.:11:54.

casualties has been the people who normally would have borrowed beyond

:11:54.:11:57.

to 85-95% of their first purchase or purchase of the home have been

:11:57.:12:00.

unable to access the mortgage market in a way that historically

:12:00.:12:03.

has been the case. The scheme that the Government have introduced,

:12:03.:12:07.

first of all you have to separate it into two sections. At the moment

:12:07.:12:11.

we have an equity loan part of the scheme, that came in on the 1st

:12:11.:12:15.

April, it got off to a good start. It is building on schemes that have

:12:15.:12:19.

been around for a while, which have been jointly funded by the house

:12:19.:12:21.

building industry and now the Government alone. The second wider

:12:21.:12:25.

part of the scheme which comes in next January is the mortgage

:12:25.:12:29.

guarantee piece. If you go back in time, when we bought our first home

:12:29.:12:32.

mortgage insurance guarantee policies were absolutely the norm.

:12:32.:12:36.

It was impossible to get a mortgage beyond 80% without such a thing.

:12:36.:12:42.

Paid for by the taxpayer? No paid for by the private sector. Does

:12:42.:12:47.

this work if the market does what you clearly want it to do which is

:12:48.:12:51.

to not keep roaring away making houses more expensive? One of the

:12:51.:12:55.

reasons we have had problems with the housing market is the lack of

:12:55.:12:58.

supply which is partly to do with our planning laws, one of the

:12:58.:13:01.

things the Government could have chosen to do rather than doing what

:13:01.:13:04.

they are doing, which I think will fuel house prices further would

:13:04.:13:07.

have been to relax those planning laws and make more land available.

:13:07.:13:12.

They have done some? A little bit and they have backtracked on some

:13:12.:13:16.

of the things they were going to do. They were going to say people could

:13:16.:13:18.

build extensions without planning permission, that isn't going to

:13:18.:13:22.

happen. That doesn't relate to new homes, we have seen an 20% increase

:13:22.:13:26.

in the number of planning permissions given. Developers don't

:13:26.:13:28.

apply for planning permission and don't build houses unless people

:13:28.:13:32.

can get the cash to buy them. At the moment we have a situation

:13:32.:13:37.

where people have to come up with �20-�30,000 as a deposit. That is

:13:37.:13:40.

clearly unsustainable. We have to find a way to enable people who

:13:40.:13:43.

can't afford to get a reasonable mortgage. Why is it necessary for

:13:44.:13:48.

people to own their own homes. The point was made in America it all

:13:48.:13:53.

went horribly wrong and there were towns like Detroit, which were

:13:53.:13:56.

completely decimated as a result. Give a straight answer to the first

:13:56.:14:00.

question there, why is it so important that people own their own

:14:00.:14:03.

homes? I don't think it is important whether people own their

:14:03.:14:07.

own homes or not. It should be up to people if they want to do so,

:14:07.:14:10.

they should be free to do so, the Government should support them. I

:14:10.:14:13.

own my own home, I want to be part of that British dream that says I

:14:13.:14:17.

can own my own house and pay the mortgage off, I can pass it on to

:14:17.:14:21.

my children. Lots of other people do too, if you want that the

:14:21.:14:24.

Government will support you. As far as you are concerned in the

:14:24.:14:29.

industry, you mentioned that there used to be a differently funded

:14:29.:14:34.

arrangements, not by the taxpayer. As far as you are concerned now,

:14:34.:14:37.

trying to look forward, once we have started on this sort of

:14:37.:14:40.

interference in the market we have to continue with it don't we?

:14:40.:14:43.

have to continue with it at least for the next three years. And after

:14:43.:14:48.

that? It depends whether insurance companies step back into that space

:14:48.:14:52.

and are prepared to underwrite mortgages or whether lenders are

:14:52.:14:56.

prepared to lend higher loan-to- value mortgages as well. That

:14:56.:14:58.

depends on the macro-economic situation and how the economy

:14:58.:15:02.

recovers. This only works if house prices keep on going up? I think

:15:02.:15:07.

the problem is if you stop the scheme and you don't have

:15:07.:15:10.

circumstances where the lenders are suddenly going to be more lenient

:15:10.:15:14.

then you will find that prices will go down when the prop is removed.

:15:14.:15:17.

People will feel conned. They have been lured into buying a house and

:15:17.:15:21.

suddenly the value has gone down, it is a dangerous strategy. Then

:15:21.:15:25.

you are in American sub-prime territory? Sub-prime is very

:15:25.:15:27.

different. We are not talking about irresponsible lending, at least we

:15:27.:15:32.

are not talking about that. We have to put this in the context of

:15:32.:15:34.

getting realistic a little about the state of the housing market in

:15:34.:15:38.

this country. We are only building roughly half the homes we need. We

:15:38.:15:43.

have five million people on social housing waiting lists, 1.8 million

:15:43.:15:46.

families the length and breath of the land. Do you think house prices

:15:46.:15:50.

will always rise? I don't think that at all. Do you think they

:15:50.:15:53.

should? The evidence over the past four or five years not that. I

:15:54.:15:56.

don't think people should buy a house with an intention of making a

:15:56.:15:59.

profit out of the house. As a country we have a duty, in my

:15:59.:16:03.

opinion, to find a way of providing homes for people whatever the

:16:03.:16:06.

tenure of the home will be, for rent or purchase, and people should

:16:06.:16:09.

buy the home as a long-term strategy of somewhere to live, not

:16:09.:16:12.

something to make a short-term profit out of. Are we going into a

:16:12.:16:16.

bubble here? Potentially. Part low at the hands of the Government?

:16:16.:16:19.

Potentionally we could be. I think that potential could be tempered of

:16:19.:16:24.

course by the real reforms we have seen of the planning system, which

:16:24.:16:29.

will increase supply. Also that we have seen Government land come

:16:29.:16:32.

forward, public land, which is available for building on. I think

:16:32.:16:36.

once those reforms really start to come through the system we will see

:16:36.:16:40.

many more development opportunities being started and being built by

:16:40.:16:49.

developer. A good few "thinks" and coulds" in what you have said --

:16:49.:16:53.

"coulds" in what you have said there? I think the Government has

:16:53.:16:56.

fixed the supply side, ensuring planning permission for developers

:16:56.:17:01.

and land to build on and ensuring there is planning to build the

:17:01.:17:05.

houses. We need end users to buy the houses. This is also about

:17:05.:17:10.

helping to rebuild the economy. Every home that is built creates

:17:10.:17:14.

jobs, jobs leads to taxes and hopefully helps with the economic

:17:14.:17:17.

recovery. That money could have gone into commercial building. We

:17:17.:17:21.

could have build more schools and hospitals. �3.5 billion is an awful

:17:21.:17:25.

lot of money to be injecting into the housing market at this point.

:17:25.:17:28.

I'm not suggesting we should do this, I sound like a spokesman for

:17:28.:17:31.

the Conservative Party which I'm really not. I think in this context

:17:31.:17:35.

the Government is to be applauded, for once there is joined-up

:17:35.:17:41.

thinking here. Of course you like this, you are being given tax-

:17:41.:17:45.

payers' money. You have to look at it alongside the planning reforms

:17:45.:17:48.

which hopefully will sort out the supply side, adding on the private

:17:49.:17:53.

rented sector initiatives, that is another big area we need to get

:17:53.:17:57.

right. More money for affordable housing and the get Britain

:17:57.:18:00.

building. Do you think we are in a bubble? I don't, or in any danger

:18:00.:18:08.

of going into a bubble in the short-term. We are dealing with a

:18:08.:18:11.

very moriand housing market. We are returning to business as usual,

:18:11.:18:15.

with reasonable loans at reasonable rates. We have had five years where

:18:15.:18:25.
:18:25.:18:26.

we saw prices drop 20% in some regions, while it helps with some

:18:26.:18:31.

prices we can't afford to keep going like that. British combat

:18:31.:18:34.

forces will leave Afghanistan next year. The Prime Minister has told

:18:34.:18:39.

us that Britain will honour the debt it owes to the Afghans who

:18:39.:18:42.

risked their lives by working as translators for us there, by

:18:42.:18:46.

allowing them to come to Britain too. There is a catch the welcome

:18:46.:18:50.

and benefits now apply to those only to those working since 2012,

:18:50.:18:54.

others have to fend for themselves. The story you are about to hear is

:18:54.:19:03.

the tale of a man who had the misfortune not to meet David

:19:03.:19:08.

Cameron's deadline and his work has brought death to his family.

:19:08.:19:11.

In the seven years since British troops entered Helmand, the

:19:11.:19:19.

fighting has been unrelenting. The risks high. Ambush, attack,

:19:19.:19:23.

sniper fire, and the roadside bombs that have killed and injured so

:19:23.:19:27.

many British troops and Afghan civilians. Every step of the way on

:19:27.:19:33.

every patrol the troops go out on is an Afghan interpreter, a Pashtu

:19:33.:19:37.

speaker who takes the same risks on the frontlines and the even greater

:19:37.:19:41.

risk of being labelled a collaborator. In September 2008 I

:19:41.:19:48.

joined British troops in the town of Gamsir, at a dangerous satellite

:19:48.:19:54.

base that had come under repeated attack. One of their translators

:19:54.:20:01.

was called Barri Shams, or Bari to the troops. He was popular, and

:20:01.:20:05.

regularly risked his life and treated a soldier hit by schrapnal.

:20:05.:20:09.

His commanding officer commended him. Today his life is very

:20:09.:20:13.

different. This is the accommodation provided by the

:20:13.:20:22.

German Government. Yeah. The former Major James Driscoll found Barri

:20:22.:20:28.

where he has been for two years, in a German immigration camp. How many

:20:28.:20:36.

people share this kitchen? 100? voice on the video recording is his

:20:36.:20:42.

former Major in Helmand, James Driscoll, he visited Barri where he

:20:42.:20:49.

has lived for more than two years, in a German immigration camp. He

:20:49.:20:54.

lives here with some of his brothers and immigrants from all

:20:55.:21:00.

over the world. He managed to contact the commander to tell him

:21:00.:21:05.

what happened in Helmand and afterwards. James Driscoll went to

:21:05.:21:09.

record that story. My family got warnings from the local, from the

:21:09.:21:17.

Taliban, I can say. They were saying your son is not supposed to

:21:17.:21:24.

work with the infidel. And then they gave warnings straight to my

:21:24.:21:30.

father in the mosque. Then my father was giving a straight answer,

:21:30.:21:35.

he said my son is doing a good job. If he's working with the coalition

:21:35.:21:41.

forces they are coming here to build our country, to build our

:21:41.:21:47.

homeland. I'm proud of my son. And then the next two days, early in

:21:47.:21:54.

the morning my family heard the shots and when they went outside

:21:55.:22:01.

they saw his dead body. Whose body? My father's dead body, they shot my

:22:01.:22:05.

father. My mother was telling me if I was her son I have to get out

:22:05.:22:13.

from here. I have to get out from here. My mother was pushing me to

:22:13.:22:17.

go away, go away. Anywhere you want to go, go away. You are in trouble.

:22:17.:22:22.

They will kill you, they will kill you. He also paid an agent to

:22:22.:22:25.

illegally transport him to Europe. In Greece he was given a fake

:22:25.:22:30.

passport. But when he arrived at Munich airport he was arrested. Now

:22:30.:22:34.

he and his brother are in limbo. His application for asylum in

:22:34.:22:38.

Germany has been rejected, he can't travel to Britain, and it is too

:22:38.:22:43.

dangerous for him to go home. go back to Afghanistan everybody

:22:43.:22:48.

knows in my village. I have no family there, where do I go? Where

:22:48.:22:57.

do I go? If I go there I have no family. Or the second, if they can

:22:57.:23:02.

kill my father they can kill my brother, they can kill me as well.

:23:02.:23:07.

It is a long way from the feeling he had when he was with British

:23:07.:23:15.

troops. We were like a family. They took care of me. I had no weapons

:23:15.:23:20.

during the mission, during the patrols, but always I had good

:23:20.:23:23.

friends that they were telling me we are with you, we are like family.

:23:24.:23:33.

I'm young and I can work and without work I have no life. I want

:23:33.:23:43.
:23:43.:23:46.

to be like others. I want have freedom. Do you not feel free at

:23:46.:23:53.

the moment? No, I can feel myself not free, I'm not free. I have no

:23:53.:23:58.

freedom and I have no life. We only know about this case because he was

:23:58.:24:01.

lucky enough to find the e-mail address of his former commander.

:24:01.:24:06.

And although he's now left the army, James Driscoll felt responsible for

:24:06.:24:10.

the translator who had taken so many risks to help his men. And

:24:10.:24:15.

even on one occasion had helped save the life of one of his

:24:15.:24:18.

Sergeants. A lot of the interpreters become more than work

:24:18.:24:22.

colleagues they become friends to the British troops they work with.

:24:22.:24:27.

They spend hours moving around on patrol, invariably a close bond is

:24:27.:24:31.

built between the British soldiers and interpreters. To see him in

:24:31.:24:35.

that situation is akin to seeing one of your own soldiers, one of

:24:35.:24:40.

your friends in that situation. And I think not just myself, but anyone

:24:40.:24:45.

who knew him would desperately want to help him. The MoD told us it

:24:45.:24:49.

operates a programme to address intimidation, which applies to all

:24:49.:24:52.

local employees who serve with British forces at any time during

:24:52.:24:57.

the operation for any duration. And can include, in extreme cases, the

:24:57.:25:01.

option of relocation to the UK. But critics say the bulk of help will

:25:01.:25:06.

only go to those Afghans still working for Britain as late as last

:25:06.:25:12.

December. And excludes hundreds of interpreters. Sadly the package is

:25:12.:25:20.

half-baked, it says hundreds of Afghans risking their lives working

:25:21.:25:24.

shoulder-to-shoulder with the British forces, and some of them

:25:24.:25:31.

can't, depending on an arbitary date cut off by Whitehall. Barri

:25:31.:25:36.

Shams lost it all trying to flee and has lost much more besides.

:25:36.:25:43.

you feel angry at the British Army for this situation? It is a

:25:43.:25:53.
:25:53.:25:56.

question that sometimes yeah. But all I can say, no, I'm not angry

:25:56.:26:02.

from the British Government. I'm stuck in Germany. I'm stuck in

:26:02.:26:07.

Germany, I want to go to the UK. If I was there, if they would not give

:26:07.:26:15.

me a response or this freedom, in that time, yeah, but now I only

:26:15.:26:20.

hope I have that the British Government will take me out from

:26:20.:26:28.

this situation. Well now, forget Plan B, the Labour

:26:28.:26:33.

Party is about to announce it will cap this country's massive social

:26:33.:26:36.

security bill. It is expected Ed Miliband will admit tomorrow that

:26:36.:26:40.

the public's faith in the system has been shaken and he will claim

:26:40.:26:46.

his party can fix it. In so doing he will accept austerity targets

:26:46.:26:50.

while claiming his party has better ideas about what to do with the

:26:50.:26:55.

money there is. The talk of iron discipline earlier this week will

:26:55.:27:02.

be replaced with stuff about having a "laser" focus. We What will he

:27:02.:27:05.

say? The man behind your head, Ed Miliband, there is three of him

:27:05.:27:10.

actually. In the 90s he was the man who before Gordon Brown brought

:27:10.:27:15.

over from the states the idea of tax credits. He's central to what's

:27:15.:27:18.

been a huge part of the ballooning welfare budget over the last few

:27:18.:27:23.

years or decades. He will tomorrow say if Labour came into Government

:27:23.:27:28.

they would cap that every three years you would see, is this rising

:27:28.:27:33.

too much, tax credits, housing benefits, other elements of the

:27:33.:27:37.

welfare budget that have so far been cut by this budget, without a

:27:37.:27:41.

limit placed on them. He would say they would say it is ballooning too

:27:41.:27:45.

much and they are not happy with it. There will be a cap? There will be

:27:45.:27:48.

a cap. What is happening, a lot of politics and a lot of policy, that

:27:49.:27:51.

is why it is rather interesting. The politics is that actually he's

:27:51.:27:55.

not the first to say he would like to do this. The politics is that

:27:55.:27:58.

the coalition has said in their budget that actually they would be

:27:58.:28:01.

bringing forward something rather similar. What they are trying to do

:28:01.:28:06.

and have successfully so far been doing is boxed Labour into a corner

:28:06.:28:09.

where they are not the Labour Party they are the welfare party, David

:28:09.:28:13.

Cameron says it all the time. So they are happy with welfare

:28:14.:28:16.

spending, they have had previous policies the coalition supported

:28:16.:28:19.

brought forward and Labour have happily, they have been very

:28:19.:28:24.

worried about packing them, so Cameron et al have been able to say

:28:24.:28:27.

you are too soft on welfare. Tomorrow the speech is intended and

:28:27.:28:31.

will show that actually they are toughening up on this stuff. It

:28:31.:28:36.

will upset a lot in their own party. So there will be a cap and some

:28:36.:28:41.

other mechanism for spending the welfare? How do you bring this down

:28:41.:28:46.

if you do not want to be the nasty Coalition cutting stuff. The way

:28:46.:28:50.

you do it, according to his speech tomorrow, I promised I wouldn't

:28:50.:28:54.

mention the word "predistribution" I have done it. With housing

:28:54.:28:58.

benefit this is a huge part of why it is going up. What do they do,

:28:58.:29:02.

they will build more houses, ip ceasing supply so rent would go

:29:02.:29:05.

down -- increasing supply so rent would go down. I see your face,

:29:05.:29:10.

with tax credits how do you bring down that bill? The way you bring

:29:10.:29:13.

it down is say to companies we will give awe tax rate if you pay more

:29:13.:29:17.

to people in their salaries in the first place, there by meaning

:29:17.:29:21.

people don't need to have as much of their salary burp bumped up. The

:29:21.:29:25.

question will be tomorrow if you don't manage to bring in these

:29:25.:29:29.

reforms, building more houses, does it turn around very quickly? I

:29:29.:29:32.

think the jury would turn around quickly would it come out within

:29:32.:29:36.

three years. If you don't manage to do that, would you cut to meet your

:29:36.:29:41.

cap or get rid of your cap? We will find out doubtless tomorrow.

:29:41.:29:49.

We have a Treasury Minister in the last Government, we have the head

:29:49.:29:56.

of the think-tank The Centre for Social Justice. How big a deal is

:29:56.:30:00.

this? It is a very big moment. Several things going on at once.

:30:00.:30:05.

First, an enormous amount of policy, when many people have criticised

:30:05.:30:09.

the Labour Party for not want to go do policy at the moment. A very

:30:09.:30:15.

symbolic line in the sand about being physically prudent, not

:30:15.:30:18.

spending what we -- fiscally prudent, not spending what we don't

:30:18.:30:22.

have. And a lot of exciting work around welfare reform, heading off

:30:22.:30:25.

the fact that the Government was going to do something themselves at

:30:25.:30:29.

the Spending Review in a few weeks time. How big a deal is it?

:30:29.:30:33.

Labour it is a really big deal, for the rest of the country and the

:30:33.:30:37.

wider community this has been discussed for quite some time. The

:30:37.:30:41.

concept of the dreaded predistribution is a wonky way of

:30:42.:30:44.

saying prevention is better than cure. That is what most people,

:30:44.:30:46.

including myself have been rabbiting on for a number of years.

:30:46.:30:50.

It is big for Labour, I can see why it is a key moment for them

:30:50.:30:53.

tomorrow. I think they are catching up, the train is leaving the

:30:53.:30:57.

station and they are trying to get on it. Let's look at the cap. If

:30:57.:31:06.

you don't meet the cap what happens? We don't know. But...It

:31:06.:31:10.

not really a cap. It is inflexible a cap? What seems to be happening

:31:11.:31:19.

is there will be some kind of target for what nerds call the AME

:31:19.:31:22.

budget, which includes social security. The key word you have

:31:23.:31:28.

used just now is "target". It is a target, it is not a cap? I'm not

:31:28.:31:33.

the Government. But it is some kind of limit. Anyone who thinks about

:31:33.:31:39.

this realises if it is a cap there comes a point where you have spent

:31:39.:31:42.

the welfare and you can't give people any. That is a gap. A target

:31:43.:31:47.

is, "this is what we would like to do". Don't take my words, if they

:31:47.:31:51.

say cap tomorrow they mean cap. The point I was trying to make is that

:31:51.:31:55.

it is a very large budget. You can do a lot within that and still stay

:31:56.:32:00.

within the cap. There is an enormous scope for policy

:32:00.:32:03.

intervention. The cap of something the Chancellor talked about in his

:32:03.:32:05.

budget recently. Again it is actually probably close to

:32:06.:32:10.

unworkable if you do it in a serious way. Labour tomorrow will

:32:10.:32:13.

be saying we will deliver serious savings. This cap can't be a

:32:13.:32:16.

meaningless figure. They will have to set something ambitious and work

:32:16.:32:20.

within it. That again is a fairly new concept for Labour. The rest of

:32:20.:32:24.

the country thinks we spend too much on welfare. Things like tax

:32:24.:32:27.

credits and housing benefit have been chasing the targets. What is

:32:27.:32:30.

wrong with the system at the moment is we pick up the pieces of poverty

:32:30.:32:35.

and chase the symptoms. If Labour today and tomorrow will say we will

:32:35.:32:39.

deal with the root causes of poverty then great but that is not

:32:39.:32:43.

new. Wonderous that nobody has thought of it before, that you

:32:43.:32:47.

solve the benefit problem by creating more employment,

:32:47.:32:50.

brilliant! Also big problems like housing benefit inflation, it is

:32:51.:32:56.

not new. The howing benefit -- housing benefit one is exciting,

:32:56.:32:59.

from what I understand they are talking about they are planning to

:32:59.:33:04.

enable local authorities to cap rents, in effect, by giving them

:33:04.:33:08.

various powers to work with existing landlords, at the moment

:33:08.:33:12.

what happens particularly in high property price areas is you have

:33:12.:33:15.

substandard housing that is very expensive that the taxpayer pays

:33:15.:33:20.

for people to live in so they are not incentivised to work because

:33:20.:33:24.

they face a huge poverty trap. The people who win are the landlords.

:33:24.:33:28.

Any kind of shift there is, that is an enormous shift in policy. People

:33:28.:33:32.

will see that Labour has some interesting plans for the long-term

:33:32.:33:34.

challenge. That is an important contribution. But they have, I

:33:34.:33:38.

think, rightly or wrongly taken a judgment of opposing most of the

:33:38.:33:41.

welfare reforms that cut the budget now. They want jam today and jam

:33:41.:33:45.

tomorrow without the pain of now, which is having to take place. They

:33:45.:33:49.

sort of think that the Welfare Bill will come down natural he lot.

:33:49.:33:52.

Under the previous Labour Government when growth was flowing

:33:52.:33:58.

through the economy and jobs were being created the welfare budget

:33:58.:34:03.

went up 40%. That is what you want is growth, but Welfare Bills rise?

:34:03.:34:10.

The coalition Government has said they will project the "automatic

:34:10.:34:15.

stablisers" please let me finish, it will be worth it. Do you have

:34:15.:34:20.

to! The unemployment benefit going up when the economy shrinks, it is

:34:20.:34:22.

actually a tiny proportion of the social security budget. So there

:34:22.:34:27.

are other things going on that need to be addressed. It was a genuine

:34:27.:34:34.

inquiry, I mean if the argument is that you reduce the benefit bill by

:34:34.:34:37.

increasing employment which demands growth in the economy, when you had

:34:37.:34:40.

growth in the economy when you were in Government the Welfare Bill went

:34:40.:34:49.

up? Because there is an underlying problem to do with the way the

:34:49.:34:53.

economy functioning, particularly for people not working. That is a

:34:53.:34:56.

structural problem that needs to be addressed by all parties. The

:34:56.:34:59.

Labour Party seems to be saying that they are prepared to get to

:34:59.:35:03.

the human family side of what is going on and take away problems

:35:03.:35:07.

that are stopping people going to work if they are elderly and only

:35:07.:35:10.

want to work part-time, or they have young children and want to

:35:11.:35:15.

access the labour market in a different way or had disincentives

:35:15.:35:19.

to work. So what is exciting about this, I think, is that it is

:35:19.:35:22.

actually starting to talk the language of people, rather than

:35:22.:35:25.

talking simply about cuts or macro- economics. You are not talking the

:35:25.:35:30.

language of people tonight, I will tell you that for free! One point

:35:30.:35:33.

on the living wage which is a key way they will say they will bring

:35:34.:35:36.

low pay up to scratch. The living wage, even the people who designed

:35:37.:35:42.

it say it is an opt-in scheme. Again this is a real punt in terms

:35:42.:35:46.

of business. Can you explain what that means, an opt-in scheme for

:35:46.:35:50.

the living wage? You can't legislation for all companies to

:35:51.:35:57.

use the living wage not the minimum wage. There is a thought that if

:35:57.:36:02.

you introduce it tomorrow jobs will be. I like the idea it is still

:36:02.:36:08.

optional, and they have to get around that. The living wage is the

:36:08.:36:11.

weakest thing of what is being talked about. They are saying the

:36:11.:36:15.

Government would give some kind of grant to a business. It is a tax

:36:15.:36:19.

credit in a different form. Tifg it to the company rather than the

:36:19.:36:22.

individual. It is great if companies with pay the living wage,

:36:23.:36:27.

I'm not sure that is about structural reform. So that's not

:36:27.:36:29.

the most important part of what they are doing. The important part

:36:29.:36:32.

of what they are doing is reforming housing benefit, which rises and

:36:32.:36:37.

rises and rises, and needs some kind of change to the way it works

:36:37.:36:41.

whilst protecting the individual, that means doing something to what

:36:41.:36:45.

landlords are getting. The incentives to work also. Also the

:36:45.:36:49.

contributory system. I understand that Ed Miliband is expected to say

:36:49.:36:55.

that we have always been the party of work, the clue is in the name,

:36:55.:36:58.

"Labour". The welfare state created by the Labour Party for a previous

:36:58.:37:02.

generation was about giving people proper social insurance, where if

:37:02.:37:05.

they paid in they would get something out. That implies more

:37:05.:37:09.

should pay in to get something out. Making that contribution principle

:37:09.:37:14.

at the heart of what the welfare state should be. Without jargon I

:37:14.:37:17.

will make a point. If you are saying certain people deserve more

:37:17.:37:21.

than others, which is what contributory welfare is about, you

:37:21.:37:25.

are bringing up the strivers, skivers debate. Secondly on

:37:25.:37:31.

something like contributory welfare, it will either cost more money or

:37:31.:37:34.

people will lose something. If you are giving more to some and less to

:37:34.:37:40.

others. I think it it doesn't answer the point they have been

:37:40.:37:44.

critical themselves. Thank you all very much you can have a private

:37:44.:37:49.

chat about jargon now. We are off to Turkey, for a change not another

:37:49.:37:54.

point about protest from a well educated elite. The Prime Minister

:37:54.:37:58.

who so angered them is democratically elected. He has also

:37:58.:38:02.

led his country through a period of unprecedented growth. What is not

:38:02.:38:07.

to like say his supporters. Proof that you can be both elected and

:38:07.:38:10.

autocratic. Yet to all the protestors' demands that he quit,

:38:10.:38:17.

he can respond that people voted for him in numbers. Who are his

:38:17.:38:27.
:38:27.:38:35.

supports and what do they see in him. What started as a protest

:38:35.:38:41.

about trees has turned into an all- out rebel. This is effectively an

:38:41.:38:44.

autonomous zone. The symbols of the global protest movement are

:38:44.:38:52.

everywhere. The tents, the vendetta mask, the flag of the Gay

:38:52.:38:55.

Liberation Movement. Today they were mixed with the more

:38:55.:39:03.

traditional symbols of protest. Tens of thousands of workers on

:39:03.:39:07.

strike came to the place where their kids had driven the police

:39:07.:39:12.

away from to join the party. At the cost of two dead and 4,000 injured,

:39:12.:39:16.

the young people of Turkey have turned Taksim Square into a free

:39:16.:39:23.

urban space, like we saw Greece and in Egypt. The difference is what

:39:23.:39:27.

they are up against, once you get beyond the barricades is a

:39:27.:39:37.

different Turkey. The bridge over the Bosphorus is where you leave

:39:37.:39:40.

Europe and enter Asia. All around there is evidence of rapid economic

:39:40.:39:46.

growth. But beyond the big city bubble the political dynamic is

:39:46.:39:54.

very different. I have come to the town of Pasha.

:39:54.:39:58.

Places like this are part of PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political

:39:58.:40:08.
:40:08.:40:09.

heartland. The offices of the ruling AK Party barely matter, the

:40:09.:40:14.

political agenda is set here. These are the people who have given Mr

:40:14.:40:18.

Redogan three general election victories and who are dead against

:40:18.:40:28.
:40:28.:40:28.

the protest in Taksim Square. If you speak to the protesters in

:40:28.:40:31.

Istanbul they think the reason very few people in a place like this

:40:31.:40:35.

would support them is essentially because of the propaganda in the

:40:35.:40:42.

newspapers. If you look, though, it is a mixed bag. This newspaper, a

:40:43.:40:45.

conservative right-wing newspaper compares the Taksim Square

:40:45.:40:48.

demonstrators to what they call PKK terrorists. For the other

:40:49.:40:53.

newspapers they are a little bit more conciliatory. "message

:40:53.:40:59.

received" is the headline on both these newspapers. In fact, the real

:40:59.:41:05.

source of support for Redogan and the party in a town like this is

:41:05.:41:09.

not propaganda da but the fact of economic development. -- propaganda

:41:09.:41:14.

but the fact of economic development. TRANSLATION: I'm 72

:41:14.:41:20.

years old and never had it so good, my pockets are full of money. We

:41:20.:41:23.

have become spoilt, everyone doesn't just have one car but two

:41:23.:41:30.

cars. Why? Because they are rich now. TRANSLATION: There is no

:41:30.:41:33.

better Government in the world than this Government. This is the best

:41:33.:41:38.

Government Turkey has ever had. Mr Redogan works all day and all night

:41:38.:41:42.

-- Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan works all day and night, if you look at

:41:42.:41:45.

his eyes they are swollen and he can't see well because he worked so

:41:45.:41:55.
:41:55.:41:59.

hard. The KA party rose after other parties failed to stem the Islamic

:41:59.:42:02.

tide. Those who lived through that are scornful about what is

:42:02.:42:05.

happening in Taksim Square. TRANSLATION: When we had the

:42:05.:42:10.

headscarf ban in the past we didn't resort to what they are doing now

:42:10.:42:13.

in Istanbul. We didn't break anything. We prayed and we said

:42:13.:42:16.

that the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would solve this

:42:16.:42:22.

problem over time. He has given rights to the all law ys and the

:42:22.:42:27.

Kurds and he will sort -- Alawites and the Kurds and he will sort this

:42:27.:42:32.

problem too. We never alarmed or attacked anyone. Today the

:42:32.:42:39.

protestors went to anchor ra to lay their demands in front -- Ankara to

:42:39.:42:42.

lay their concerns in front of the Deputy Prime Minister, tomorrow Mr

:42:42.:42:46.

Erdogan returns. What happens next depends on the tens of thousands of

:42:46.:42:52.

young people who have suddenly found a political voice.

:42:52.:42:59.

Today I think it is maybe it is early for a revolution. But it is

:42:59.:43:06.

too, too late for Erdogan. Because many journalists, many people here

:43:06.:43:13.

are the people who voted foreredrd before. But they voted for Erdogan

:43:13.:43:21.

but Erdogan works for a minority. If you win here you will not stop?

:43:21.:43:29.

Yeah because it isn't just a park, it isn't just a cultural thing. It

:43:29.:43:34.

is a democracy and freedom demand against the fascism of Erdogan. We

:43:34.:43:40.

know he's a fascist leader and we will overthrow him by these

:43:40.:43:46.

people's vote. The Government is in a bind, with every demonstrator

:43:46.:43:53.

armed with a smartphone, any attempt to crack down on such a

:43:53.:43:56.

diverse movement would be reputational suicide. But the

:43:56.:44:02.

movement has momentum. At some point everybody knows these iconic

:44:02.:44:05.

bus barricades will have to go. Either the police break in or the

:44:05.:44:10.

Government climbs down. With tension rising and violence flaring

:44:10.:44:14.

in other cities, and people beg arrested simply for tweeting. The

:44:14.:44:17.

people who built this barricade are happy for the moment to stand in

:44:17.:44:21.

the shadows behind it. Meanwhile for the west there is a major

:44:21.:44:25.

headache. We just got used to Erdogan's Turkey being a Muslim

:44:26.:44:29.

democracy. But democracies and barricades do not really go

:44:29.:44:39.
:44:39.:44:40.

together. Quietly, brick by brick, this young urban secular part of

:44:40.:44:50.
:44:50.:45:24.

Turkey is preparing for the worst. That's all from Newsnight tonight.

:45:24.:45:29.

One of those life imitating art moments in Australia, or life

:45:29.:45:34.

imitating The Thick of It. The opposition spokesman on immigration

:45:34.:45:38.

was getting into his stride at a news conference, or feeding the

:45:38.:45:44.

chucks as they call it there, when he understood not to be the story

:45:44.:45:49.

of the moment. Our Government has looked the other way and not lifted

:45:49.:45:59.
:45:59.:46:20.

a fringeer. It's all right. That warmed you up! The other

:46:20.:46:30.
:46:30.:46:36.

issue... Nice to be popular, the weather has turned a corner since

:46:37.:46:40.

June. Plenty of warm sunshine to come for most of us during Thursday.

:46:40.:46:43.

This time the cloud over the Midlands and eastern England

:46:43.:46:45.

clearing away during the afternoon. The odd afternoon shower through

:46:45.:46:49.

Northern Ireland, few and far between, most of Scotland having a

:46:49.:46:52.

very pleasant afternoon. You get a breeze off the North Sea still

:46:53.:46:56.

chilly, 12 degrees in Aberdeen. The odd shower popping up across the

:46:56.:47:01.

borders into the northern Pennines, they will be few and bar between,

:47:01.:47:05.

many places misses them. For many places, temperatures getting into

:47:05.:47:10.

the low 20s, just near the North Sea coast cooler with the breeze

:47:11.:47:14.

off the sea. Somewhere across south-east Wales, perhaps south-

:47:14.:47:19.

west England got up to 23 or 24 degrees. But lots of that strong

:47:19.:47:23.

sunshine on offer. And absolutely glorious afternoon across Wales and

:47:23.:47:27.

most of the Midlands. We are looking at temperatures around 21

:47:27.:47:31.

in Manchester, perhaps even higher. As you can see for most places it

:47:31.:47:35.

doesn't really change through Thursday and into Friday. Bristol

:47:35.:47:40.

could well hit 23, possibly 24. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a

:47:40.:47:43.

Why can't the government let house prices fall? How Labour will control the welfare bill. Paul Mason in Turkey and an Afghan interpreter's story. With Jeremy Paxman.


Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS