11/06/2013 Newsnight


11/06/2013

The green shoots of economic recovery; the Turks attack their protesters; Russia's treatment of gays and the science of invisibility. With Jeremy Paxman.


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Transcript


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Can it really be true? Are we beginning to see what were once

:00:13.:00:17.

famously or infamously called the green shoots coming up in the

:00:17.:00:23.

British economy? So how is the market doing beyond the ages of the

:00:23.:00:31.

south-east bubble? 5 miles from London, is there any

:00:31.:00:35.

sign of a real recovery. We have gathered among others the

:00:35.:00:41.

author of the phrase "green shoots" to lend us some fresh horticultural

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insights. In Istanbul the riot police attempt to clear Taksim

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Square. Why do the Turkish authorities finally lose patients.

:00:53.:00:58.

Also tonight, on the streets of Moscow, the punch-ups are about

:00:58.:01:00.

parliament's overwhelming decision to pass anti-gay legislation. What

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is it with the Russians and homosexuality. This man lost his

:01:06.:01:09.

job as a television presenter after coming out as gay there.

:01:09.:01:15.

Scientists can now make a cat invisible, sort of. We will ask one

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scientist how long before we can use it on something bigger, like a

:01:20.:01:30.
:01:30.:01:32.

television producer? How do you feel? Not physically but

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how do you feel about the state of the country? More figures appeared

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today including an estimate that the economy grew at 0.6% in the

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last three months. It is not what you would call spectacular, it is

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of a piece with other assessments that say after a couple of years of

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stagnation that the economy is perhaps finely moving. Does it mean

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George Osborne's therapy is working, or is what growth there despite his

:01:59.:02:02.

ministrations. There is life outside statistics, we send Paul

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Mason to see how it looks in Rugby. For economyists the truth lies in

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the detail. You can scan the graphs and charts and watch the markets

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but the only true way to spot a recovery is to go to the kind of

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place it would be unmissable. Which for me means a side street in

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Rugby, Warwickshire. If we ever do get a sustained economic recovery

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then this street is probably one of the first places we might see it.

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Because Rugby, the town, is just outside the south-east property

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market. So house prices here have been stagnant for five years. What

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we are looking for is an up tick. For all the arguments about double-

:02:51.:02:55.

dips, what the GDP data shows is a recovery faltering after 2010. The

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latest sign of an upturn is what purchasing managers are reporting

:02:58.:03:02.

across the whole economy. This line shows the balance between those

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reporting an increase in sales and those a downturn. It is now been

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positive since the start of the year. Le

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Of course it has been positive before, so why should we trust it

:03:14.:03:18.

now? I think the recovery we are seeing is barely broad-based. It

:03:18.:03:21.

looks like maybe consumers are spending a bit more. But it looks

:03:22.:03:25.

like some improvement in the industrial sector in manufacturing.

:03:25.:03:28.

Even possibly an improvement in construction. So it seems to be

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fairly across the board that we are seeing a bit of a pick up now.

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But to the Government is pouring tax-payers' money and banks'

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support into a recovery of a different kind. That is in the

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housing market. Funding For Lending, help to buy. There is billions

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earmarked to get house prices on the move. So what's happening.

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These were built prior to the recession in 2007 and they were

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purchased for �80,000 roughly. We saw in 2009 they went down to

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�65,000. We have seen recently they have recovered to almost full value

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for what they were originally purchased for. Definitely the

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market is improving. What do you think is driving that? Definitely

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the first time buyers, the mortgages are being freed up. Rates

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are getting much better and also the Government's help to buy scheme

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is definitely having a beneficial effect on the market.

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Rugby also happens to be one of those places where a bit of civil

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engineering might boost things. This is the place where the M6 runs

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out and the east-west route becomes, well, a bottleneck. There is an

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extra �3 billion nationally earmarked for infrastructure

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spending, and because of that work could start to expand this junction

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next year. Until then construction industries

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are having to make do with smaller stuff. Here an office block is

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under way. If I asked you the straight question are we in a

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sustained recovery in your sector? No. Really?No. We are, there is

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work around, it is generally of a much smaller nature. It is highly

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competitive. There are sub- contractors, main contractors who

:05:13.:05:16.

are going into receivership as a result of the pressures upon them.

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We are not out of this yet, we are a long way from it. In general we

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are seeing very tight times. We are seeing it right the way through the

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supply chain. We are seeing the supply chain not being paid. We are

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seeing main contractors not being paid. What would a sustained

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recovery in your sector look like? Increasing workload, I guess. Very

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simple, more work. This is how the recovery was

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supposed to happen. At a manufacturing company in Rugby,

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:05:57.:05:59.

they have just built this giant box and it will be used to transport

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rotors across. Talk to manufacturers and it is the same

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story as construction, small bits of work here and there but a

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problem getting paid. What would a real recovery look like and this

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workshop? There would be two or three more people in it. In a real

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recovery? Yeah, and hopefully more investment in the machines.

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would be able to tell if there was a real sustained recovery? We would

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see that. At the moment we should be selling a lot more RSJs to

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builders, it is flat at the moment. Where do you go for finance, with

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builders before finance was the problem. How does it feel to you?

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With finance we have been very lucky, we just work on the

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overdraft. We work on that. But I must admit we have done some very

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big jobs just at the moment and customers are taking longer to pay.

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Which has hit us and we have had to, for the first time in my highsry,

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we have had to borrow money -- history, we have had to borrow

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money just to keep going. Even now manufacturing is nowhere near

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recovered to what it was before the crisis. The whole project of

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rebalancing by exports and private investment is just hard to find.

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The hopes all along have been with businesses and, porters driving the

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recovery. That really still doesn't seem to be happening. It seems to

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be consumers that are coming to the economy's rescue, perhaps by

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borrowing a bit more. That is really what we wanted to avoid. We

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are at the point now where any growth is better than no growth. So

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if consumers are going to lead the recovery from now, then that is for

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the best. For many people here any kind of

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recovery will be welcome. They are using up their reserves of ready

:07:36.:07:41.

cash. You can see how it might pan out,

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house prices rise, some people get more money in their pockets and the

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whole consumer scene becomes a little less reliant on pawnbrokers.

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The problem is the recovery we were supposed to be having was led by

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investment, manufacturing and exports and this is not it.

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In fact it is a recovery with low wages, high borrowing and a one-way

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bet on house prices. Sound familiar? With us now are the

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journalists and economists, Nando De Colo, former Chancellor of the -

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- Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont, and Gillian Tett.

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Each of them has selected their recent favourite graph. You are

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going first Gillian. This is your graph. This chart is very important

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for how we feel and in terms of what happens next in the economy.

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It is the source of some dispute between the IMF and the Treasury.

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If you are feeling optimistic you can say look the level of debt

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relative to income has fallen sharply since the peak during the

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credit bubble. Just to explain for the idiots, myself among us. That

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shows the amount of debt that the average household has acquired, or

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is carrying? Relative to how much money they are earning each month.

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If you sat down and totted up all your credit cards, your car loans,

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your mortgage, that would be the total debt. During the credit

:09:13.:09:16.

bubble it got very high, now it has come down a bit. That should mean

:09:16.:09:21.

that people start to feel less under pressure financially and more

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willing to actually go out and spend. That is what the British

:09:25.:09:30.

Treasury hopes. This is a good graph? Except, but, there is a big

:09:30.:09:34.

sting in the tail. If you look at the chart it hasn't come down very

:09:34.:09:38.

far. It has come down a lot less distance than in a country like

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America where it has dropped quite sharply the problem, as people like

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the IMF say, is unfortunately there is still an awful lot of

:09:45.:09:49.

rebalancing that needs to go on. Not just inside people's household

:09:49.:09:53.

finances but across the economy as a whole. What do you make of this

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graph? I think what Gillian says is right, a reduction in indebtedness

:09:57.:10:01.

is part of the adjustment that has to be made. We have had problems

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with Government indebtedness, but we also have a problem of personal

:10:07.:10:10.

indebtedness. Until that happens I don't think consumers will feel

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confident. So everyone is still borrowing too much? I think people

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are still, by historic standards, quite heavily indebted, yes.

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think it is the other way around. I think the Government's policy is

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actually to make that graph move up again. That's what help to buy is

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about. That is really what George Osborne did in the budget. He said

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you can't cure debt with debt, but then the main thing he announced

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was an eanother mus Government programme to guarantee and

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subsidise -- another enormous Government programme to guarantee

:10:48.:10:52.

and subsidise more debt. I believe we are beginning to see a recovery,

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but it is of exactly the opposite kind to what has been described.

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The very interesting thing is everyone watching this programme

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tonight should ask themselves how do I feel about the future and

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about my own finances? Does the idea of taking on more debt make me

:11:06.:11:09.

feel terrified? Is it something I'm dipping my toe into the water, or

:11:09.:11:13.

do I feel confident. That is really at the heart of whether we will

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have a sustained recovery or not. So if they feel confident that's

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good? And they take on the debt and then we are back? Back to where we

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were before. Exactly. That's not very encouraging. Interestingly

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enough, the reason the line has come down is it is primarily due to

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increased income rather than households actually reducing their

:11:34.:11:38.

net levels of debt. In America, by contrast, there has been a real

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reduction in the actual level of debt held by households, that

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hasn't happened yet in the UK. lot of that has been through

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bankruptcy and foreclosures and things like that. There is an

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election coming up. They have only got 18 months to generate a boom of

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some kind in the economy. If it can't be an expert boom, it will be

:11:59.:12:03.

a consumer and mortgage boom, that is where we are moving. Norman

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Lamont, takes through your favourite recent graph. That hasn't

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come up yet. It will come up I hope very shortly? My graph is of the

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purchasing managers' index. This is of the whole economy, including

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services and manufacturing. When it is above 50% that indicates that

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people are expecting their order books, their business to increase

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to do well. So in the past it has been a very good guide to the trend

:12:35.:12:41.

of GDP. And here if you look at it, this is for the services sector,

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which is the largest part of the economy, it would be even more

:12:45.:12:50.

marked and show a big increase in optimisim. As I say that in the

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past, historically has been closely co-related with the trend of the

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economy. The amount of upbeatness you can see among people making

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purchasing decisions, is that it? That's right. That indicates how

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they feel the economy is going, is that the idea? It is an ago gaigs

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of all the businesses in -- ago gregaigs of all the businesses in

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the country, done by survey of what they expect to happen in their

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businesses. Doesn't that confirm what Gillian was saying that there

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is more confidence about? Yes, I do believe there is a basis for

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thinking that we are about to see a bit of an upturn. I don't think it

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will be very spectacular. I don't think it should be spectacular, a

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gradual recovery is what we want rather than a fast recovery. There

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are a lot of adjustments, the rebalancing Gillian referred to,

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that need to be made in the economy. I think this ought to take time.

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Could we call it green shoots do you think? We shouldn't confuse

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green shoots with trees or buds or flowers like those behind you!

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Green shoots are merely green shoots, the beginning of something.

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We may be seeing some green shoots about now? It is possible, but I

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think what history, can I just say this, I think what history

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demonstrates is when you have had a big banking failure that sort of

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recovery is much more prolonged and much more gradual and we should

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expect it to be a little bit bumpy. Many years ago when I was a

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journalist I learned to write the word "bank" in short hand, you go

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down very sharply for a "b" and then a "n" and then a "k", we down

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sharply and we bounced up a bit and then bounced on the bottom. That is

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also presumably how you spell "bonk"? Or pink. The first thing

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that happens is you start falling. You can see that from the chart.

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What do you make of the graph? agree broadly with what people are

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saying. We are starting to see the first green shoots. When I came to

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see the pictures in the studio that is pushing up the daisies as well!

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Are we pushing up the daisies. was my joke! I think you better

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show us yours and then we can talk more generally. There it is.

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spent spend my time travelling around the world now. I write for

:15:27.:15:31.

an international audience for Reuters and the New York Times, I'm

:15:31.:15:34.

also making comparisons between what is going on around the world.

:15:34.:15:39.

The issue posed right at the beginning of the broadcast is if

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the recovery is happening is it because of George Osborne's

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ministrations or despite it. I think this chart, believe it or not,

:15:47.:15:50.

demonstrates quite clearly the answer to that question and that is

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that the recovery so far is very much despite George Osborne's

:15:54.:15:58.

ministrations. Now it may be that the policies is about to change

:15:58.:16:04.

drammatically, but what this chart shows is growth in the UK, the blue

:16:04.:16:14.
:16:14.:16:16.

line, and growth in the US, the Green Line. So the British economy

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was stronger than the US economy going into the recession. They fell

:16:20.:16:24.

almost exactly the same amount. They both had the same problems,

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large financial sector, falling housing market, large levels of

:16:29.:16:32.

Government debt. They both bounced back at the same time, through 2010

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there is a marked divergence. The US economy continues to grow

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between 2.5%, the UK falls back. That is because of the fiscal

:16:42.:16:46.

tightening, the austerity policy, the higher taxes, the big cuts in

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public pend spending which really began in my view and the IMF

:16:51.:16:55.

confirms this from 2010 on wards. The gap between those lines is

:16:55.:17:00.

about 2% of GDP. And just to give you an idea of what that

:17:00.:17:04.

meaningless sort of statistic actually signifies, that's

:17:04.:17:08.

equivalent to about half a million jobs. So the difference between the

:17:08.:17:11.

performance of the two economies is roughly equivalent to half a

:17:11.:17:15.

million jobs, I would say. I would broadly agree, I make two points,

:17:15.:17:19.

America is now tightening fiscal policy, partly as a result of this

:17:19.:17:25.

gridlock in Washington right now. At the right time. We did it too

:17:25.:17:27.

early. Secondly, one reason why there is a difference in sentiment

:17:27.:17:31.

between the US and the UK is America has had this cleansing

:17:31.:17:36.

process of seeing a lot of defaults on the mortgages, a lot of the debt

:17:36.:17:39.

repaid in the household sector, going back to the chart I started

:17:39.:17:43.

with, which hasn't happened yet in the UK. This is he very interesting

:17:43.:17:46.

it suggests some sort of recovery might have happened any way despite

:17:46.:17:51.

George Osborne? I would make a couple of repoints in regards to

:17:51.:17:55.

the graph. Firstly the financial sector, though large in both

:17:55.:17:57.

economies, is much larger in relation to the total economy in

:17:57.:18:03.

the UK than in the US. We have a bigger crater caused by the

:18:03.:18:06.

collapse of the banks. Secondly, when you are comparing where we

:18:06.:18:11.

were at the beginning of the crisis, with where we are now, I think in

:18:11.:18:14.

one sense that is irrelevant. Because it all depends was the

:18:14.:18:22.

growth that we had before the crisis real or was it in losery? In

:18:22.:18:28.

my opinion a lot of the growth we had in 20067/07 was debt filled.

:18:28.:18:35.

The fact that we are not back up where we were in 207 and America is

:18:35.:18:42.

-- 2007, and America is back up, is just a reflection of how eluisery

:18:42.:18:48.

it was before the crash. What sort of level will we be back to the

:18:48.:18:56.

sort of period Norman Lamont is talking about in 2007? If the help

:18:56.:19:02.

to buy George Osborne boom turns out to be real, then I would say

:19:02.:19:06.

2015/16. I would roughly the same thing. I think about the same, but

:19:06.:19:12.

compare it with Italy or Spain. Even if they grew at 1.5% peran

:19:12.:19:17.

number, it wouldn't be before 2018/19 they were back to the level

:19:17.:19:26.

they were. We are doing a lot better than some other people.

:19:26.:19:29.

Great charts. It was basey old day for the riot

:19:29.:19:33.

police in Istanbul, teargas, water canon and endless pushing and

:19:33.:19:37.

shoving as they tried to clear Taksim Square. The scene of days of

:19:37.:19:40.

protest against the Government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Were we going

:19:40.:19:44.

to kneel down in front of these people, he asked a meeting of MPs

:19:44.:19:50.

today, he wasn't expecting the answer "yes". Nor were the

:19:50.:19:54.

campaigners he calls "riffraff". He spoke to Jeremy Bowen earlier who

:19:54.:19:59.

had just been hit by teargas. Can you talk us through what

:19:59.:20:03.

happened today Jeremy? Well it has been a long day of clashes here,

:20:03.:20:06.

they are going on as I speak. There is a lot of teargas in the air,

:20:06.:20:10.

that is why I have got this. Just in the last few minutes I have seen

:20:10.:20:16.

a water canon down there. More riot squads firing volleys of teargas

:20:16.:20:21.

grenades, those are the bangs you can hear, towards the demonstrators

:20:21.:20:24.

below there. There are still thousands of demonstrators in Gezi

:20:24.:20:28.

Park, over my right shoulder. And here in Taksim Square there are

:20:28.:20:35.

police, riot squads, water canon and all the paraphernalia of the

:20:35.:20:40.

Turkish state. There will be a lot of Turk watching it on TV,

:20:40.:20:43.

supporters of the Prime Minister saying good, these people are

:20:43.:20:47.

getting what's coming to them. There is the other half of the

:20:47.:20:50.

country with the protesters, this country is split. Wasn't he saying

:20:50.:21:00.
:21:00.:21:01.

until very, very recently that he would open talks with them? Yeah

:21:01.:21:04.

there have been complaints about the people they were talking to

:21:04.:21:10.

tomorrow are people hand picked by the AK Party. By the Prime

:21:10.:21:14.

Minister's party as suitable people to negotiate with. A lot of people

:21:14.:21:17.

here in Gezi Park have repudiated them as being not representative

:21:17.:21:21.

and saying they are not going to be affected by anything that they do.

:21:21.:21:25.

The thing is that ever since he returned from his North Africa tour

:21:25.:21:29.

at the end of last week Mr Erdogan has been pretty much unremittingly

:21:30.:21:37.

hostile in his rhetoric towards the protestors. Some people, some long

:21:38.:21:42.

time observers of Turkish politics were hoping he might produce a U-

:21:42.:21:46.

turn when he got back and reach out to elements of them and got a deal.

:21:46.:21:49.

He wouldn't have won three elections here without being a

:21:49.:21:52.

canny politician. He has taken a very hardline, used very tough

:21:52.:21:57.

language, and of course in the last 12 hours or so he has sent in the

:21:57.:22:04.

riot squads here. Right in the centre of Istanbul in this city's

:22:04.:22:08.

equivalent of Travers square or Leicester Square. We are talking

:22:09.:22:12.

about something localised with profound implication, how untable

:22:12.:22:22.
:22:22.:22:23.

is the situation? There is a risk if they don't find way out of this

:22:23.:22:28.

that is in some sense consensual, there is a risk that parts of this

:22:28.:22:33.

country might become, for a while, ungovernable. I think it is that

:22:33.:22:37.

serious. There is a groundswell among half the population. Half the

:22:37.:22:39.

population voted for the Prime Minister in the last elections,

:22:39.:22:44.

there is a glound swell of people who are -- groundswell of people

:22:44.:22:50.

who are fed up with his autocratic style. His supporters has said he

:22:50.:22:53.

has presided over unprecedented growth in the Turkish economy. The

:22:53.:23:01.

muscling up of their diplomatic clout across the Middle East. He is

:23:01.:23:03.

turning Turkey back into a great power. Why are these people getting

:23:03.:23:07.

in the way. These people would argue, and they are chanting again,

:23:07.:23:13.

that they are shoulder-to-shoulder against fascism. That is one of the

:23:13.:23:15.

great slogans they use they are, that is what they believe they are

:23:15.:23:24.

fighting. Any word of what the army thinks? The army has been very

:23:24.:23:28.

quiet. Don't forget Mr Erdogan has put large numbers of generals in

:23:28.:23:31.

prison, because the army of course, which held political power in this

:23:31.:23:34.

country for a long time and felt they were the guardians of the

:23:34.:23:38.

secular state. The people who would move in if there was trouble going

:23:38.:23:42.

on and who took part in a number of bloody military coups and military

:23:42.:23:45.

Governments, they have been very much sent back to their barracks

:23:45.:23:49.

under Mr Erdogan. He has used quite strong language. He has said that

:23:49.:23:54.

the atmosphere reminds him of the period leading up to past military

:23:54.:24:00.

coups. So he is in a sense raising that specter as if to say "don't

:24:00.:24:04.

you dare"! Thank you very much, look after yourself.

:24:04.:24:10.

Now by a margin of 36 -0, the Russian parliament voted this

:24:10.:24:13.

afternoon to ban distribution of information about homosexuality to

:24:13.:24:17.

children. The rules of the Douma are obviously a bit like those of

:24:17.:24:22.

the philosophy department at Monty Python's Outback University where

:24:22.:24:29.

everyone is called Bruce. The idea of banning what was coyly called of

:24:29.:24:34.

the non-traditional sexual relations, is part of an attempt to

:24:34.:24:44.
:24:44.:24:47.

inoculate the country against the western liberals.

:24:47.:24:55.

This is the lower house of the ru. Parliament the Douma. It isn't one

:24:55.:24:58.

the Russian parliament, the Douma, it isn't one of the greatest

:24:58.:25:03.

landmarks, yet it says so much about what is happening in Russia

:25:03.:25:06.

today. It was a dramatic day in the Douma, much of it unfolded outside

:25:07.:25:13.

the building. When I came down here earlier I witnessed clashes between

:25:13.:25:18.

gay rights activists and anti-gay campaigners. The gay rights groups

:25:18.:25:22.

were shouting things like "we should have the same right as

:25:22.:25:26.

everyone else", their opponents responded with "Moscow is not

:25:26.:25:30.

sodom" and calls on the police to beat up homosexuals. At one point

:25:30.:25:35.

the violence spilled on to the main shopping street, with the gay

:25:35.:25:41.

rights activists literally being hunted down and attacked. A few

:25:41.:25:44.

hours later Russian parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of a

:25:44.:25:48.

controversial piece of legislation. It imposes heavy fines on anyone

:25:48.:25:52.

who provides information to under- 18s about what is described as

:25:52.:25:56.

"untraditional sexual relations". So what does all this tell us about

:25:56.:26:02.

the direction in which Russia is moving? First of all it shows that

:26:02.:26:06.

the Kremlin, which continues to dictate all policy here is growing

:26:06.:26:10.

more conservative. Vladimir Putin may be the first

:26:10.:26:13.

Russian lead in 300 years to announce he's getting a divorce. He

:26:13.:26:18.

has made traditional family values, marriage, children and the church a

:26:18.:26:23.

cornerstone of his third term in office. It is almost becoming the

:26:23.:26:28.

state ideology in place of communism. And liberal values,

:26:28.:26:33.

whether political, social or sexual have no room in this very

:26:33.:26:36.

conservative outlook. This world view goes down very well with many

:26:36.:26:40.

ordinary Russians. I witnessed an interesting conversation today

:26:40.:26:44.

outside the parliament, an anti-gay activist was telling two gay rights

:26:44.:26:47.

campaigners that people in Russia should never behave the way they do.

:26:47.:26:50.

And if they wanted to be homosexuals they should clear off

:26:50.:26:57.

and go and live in Europe. In fact, one opinion poll out today showed

:26:57.:27:02.

that 88% of Russians supports the law on homosexuality, passed by the

:27:02.:27:05.

parliament. And another recent survey showed that nearly half the

:27:05.:27:08.

population believes that Russia's gay and lesbian community should

:27:08.:27:14.

not enjoy the same rights as other citizens. Now these figures reflect

:27:14.:27:19.

another key change in Russia. Russian society is growing more

:27:19.:27:23.

intolerant of anyone who looks different, who thinks different,

:27:23.:27:27.

who behaves different. That includes sexual minorities, ethnic

:27:27.:27:32.

minorities and political minorities. While that trend continues Russia

:27:32.:27:38.

will remain on a very different path from the west.

:27:38.:27:44.

I'm joined by two guests in Moscow. A singer who was awarded the title

:27:44.:27:51.

of Honoured Artist to Russia by President Putin, and her former

:27:51.:27:54.

television presenter who outed himself on television. He was

:27:54.:28:01.

subsequently sacked for doing so. This astonishing vote in the Douma,

:28:01.:28:09.

463-0. Do you think that really reflects Russian opinion? I was

:28:09.:28:13.

listening to the coverage of the issue, it was funny. It was funny

:28:13.:28:20.

to me because it is nothing to do with politics. Being the mother of

:28:20.:28:28.

three children I approve this bill because I want to defend my

:28:28.:28:33.

children, first of all. Then I don't care, I don't want to meddle

:28:33.:28:38.

with other people's lives. I don't care what they do behind their

:28:39.:28:45.

doors. But they do care -- but I do care about my children's bringing

:28:45.:28:53.

up. You know it is the situation not only me thinks like that. The

:28:53.:29:02.

vast majority of people in Russia 88% of people support the ban of

:29:02.:29:08.

homosexuality propaganda. That's a fact. And this bill

:29:08.:29:12.

responds to people's demands. hear what you say.

:29:12.:29:17.

Anton, tell us as a gay man, you came out on television. You lost

:29:17.:29:21.

your job, you believe as a consequence. What else happened.

:29:21.:29:27.

What is the feeling in your country? I'm glad that Valariea,

:29:27.:29:31.

that situation is very funny for her, but it is not fun for me. I

:29:31.:29:36.

think it is against me, against my family, against all gay people in

:29:36.:29:42.

Russia. From today. No, no.Yes, yes. Hi. Good night. I have a lot

:29:42.:29:47.

of fans who belong to the gay society it is not true. Can I.

:29:47.:29:53.

Excuse me. From today I cannot say that I'm gay and I'm the same human

:29:53.:30:01.

being like you, like President Putin, like all of you. Because

:30:01.:30:11.

from today I will have to pay for this from �100-�2,000 because these

:30:11.:30:16.

words could be taken as propaganda and she knows it, right? Just a

:30:16.:30:20.

second, I don't understand your argument, you are saying just

:30:20.:30:25.

because you are gay you are making propaganda for...Exactly. So you

:30:25.:30:30.

are illegal, you feel? If I said that I am gay and I'm the same

:30:30.:30:37.

human being, like you, for example, injure me, and it could be taken

:30:37.:30:44.

like propaganda. That's outrageous? I foal the minority in my country,

:30:44.:30:49.

believe me. I have a lot of friends who belong to the gay society, and

:30:49.:30:58.

they do not support their uni sexual matters or would take part

:30:59.:31:03.

in a gay parade, they are normal people. There is a lot of people

:31:03.:31:08.

who belong to gay society still, they are still working on TV, in

:31:08.:31:17.

the media and all over. I don't know why it happened to you? Anton,

:31:17.:31:24.

come on? Are they open gays? Yeah, a lot of artists are openly gay.

:31:24.:31:29.

please, tell me, who exactly is openly gay in the Russian media, in

:31:29.:31:38.

the Russian pop business, in Russian showbiz, who is it? Sergie

:31:38.:31:47.

Pankin. He's an open gay? Really? tell you what, we have world

:31:47.:31:50.

renowned libel courts we will leave the naming of names. Nobody knows

:31:50.:31:55.

who that is. Can you help us with this question Anton, first off,

:31:55.:32:02.

what is it about your society and homosexuality? What do you mean

:32:02.:32:05.

exactly. Why is it such an issue, this would not be an issue in

:32:06.:32:09.

western Europe, for example, or the United States. What is it

:32:09.:32:16.

particular to Russian society that makes it such a sensitive matter?

:32:16.:32:20.

I'm not sure if it is a sensitive matter in Russia. I think it is a

:32:20.:32:23.

sensitive matter for the Russian state. It is a big question, why? I

:32:24.:32:32.

have no answer. Maybe Valeria knows. What I know is our society is based

:32:32.:32:40.

on Christian morality, still. In spite of the "enlightened European

:32:40.:32:50.
:32:50.:32:51.

tendencies", a lot of people try to think the same way. We are

:32:51.:32:55.

different the vast majority of people. It is interesting to hear

:32:55.:33:00.

about Christians. Pardon me. Do you think it has much to do with the

:33:00.:33:08.

communist history in your country Not at all. Let's put it like that,

:33:08.:33:15.

the more aggressive propaganda of homosexuality, the less people feel

:33:15.:33:22.

loyalty towards them. Towards the gay society. That's it. That's it.

:33:22.:33:27.

It is very fun to hear about orthodox values from pop singer. It

:33:27.:33:33.

is really fun. I just want to say one point. You talk about the

:33:33.:33:43.

majority, about the majority wants it. I just want to remind you that

:33:43.:33:49.

95% in Nazi Germany supported laws against Jews, homosexuals, and

:33:49.:33:59.
:33:59.:34:00.

gypsies, 95% of German people in 1935. Do remember what was in 1945,

:34:00.:34:04.

right. Are you saying that you feel personally in danger as a

:34:05.:34:10.

consequence of this legislation? Sure. I have three children, I have

:34:10.:34:17.

the youngest son is 14 years old, I don't want him to be influenced by

:34:17.:34:23.

anybody through the Internet mostly. Wow. You understand me.You are a

:34:23.:34:30.

pop singer right? You have gay friends. Yes I am. They are normal

:34:30.:34:36.

people. Uuraguay friends do you feel they make something like

:34:36.:34:46.
:34:46.:34:47.

propaganda to your 14-year-old son. Of course not. Yesterday I saw in

:34:47.:34:52.

the news that one man was arrested for attempted sexual relations with

:34:52.:34:59.

a 14-year-old boy, that should be punished. This case is criminal.

:34:59.:35:05.

Presumably it is already punishable in your country isn't it? Child

:35:05.:35:11.

abuse is not a crime in Russia? sure. Yes, of course it is.

:35:11.:35:18.

OK all right. But it is nothing had had happened it was just an attempt.

:35:18.:35:24.

It was a homosexual attempt it could influence... Thank you, thank

:35:24.:35:29.

you. Good thank you very much indeed, thank you.

:35:29.:35:34.

How odd were you? How old, sorry, how old were your children when

:35:34.:35:40.

they left home? The average age is 24, unless you are in the care of

:35:40.:35:43.

the state, which decrease it is entitled to end its commitment when

:35:43.:35:47.

a young person reaches 16. Sometimes you might be able to

:35:47.:35:50.

prolong your foster care until you are 18 and so avoid having to sit

:35:50.:35:55.

your A-levels from some hostel. But a group of MPs were hoping today to

:35:55.:35:58.

get parliament to agree that young people in foster care might be

:35:58.:36:01.

supported until the age of 2. But the House of Commons speaker didn't

:36:01.:36:08.

give them a chance -- 21. How the House of Commons speaker didn't

:36:08.:36:13.

give them the chance. We filmed children in care a few years ago

:36:13.:36:17.

and followed them now until they are 21 and asked if the raised age

:36:17.:36:22.

would have made a difference to them. Four years ago Newsnight met

:36:22.:36:27.

Phil Fuller, he had just turned 18. He was loving his new job as a

:36:27.:36:33.

steward for the Leicester Tigers Rugby club. After seven years in

:36:33.:36:36.

foster care he told our reporter that he felt ready to face the

:36:37.:36:42.

world. My care experience has been all right. It's been good. Got the

:36:42.:36:50.

best out of it. When you say you have the best out of it, what do

:36:50.:36:54.

you mean? Everything I really wanted to. Get my confidence up and

:36:54.:36:59.

self-esteem, go to groups and stuff. Keep myself busy and stuff. And now

:36:59.:37:05.

you have your own flat? Yes.Now 21 Phil says that looking back he

:37:05.:37:08.

wasn't ready to live alone and moving out of care was much harder

:37:08.:37:12.

than he thought it would be. probably thought I was ready then

:37:12.:37:18.

because I was immature and thought I can do it. My own property,

:37:18.:37:24.

parties, you know, friends round whenever you want and stuff. But

:37:24.:37:29.

now I just weren't ready, I didn't have some of the skills that I

:37:29.:37:34.

needed to go into having my own place and stuff. I had to like ask

:37:34.:37:39.

people to lend me a tenner here or a fiver here for paying the gas or

:37:39.:37:44.

the electric or get some extra food stuffs in. You got into debt?Yeah,

:37:44.:37:49.

I got into a bit of debt. average young people don't leave

:37:49.:37:52.

home until they are 24. Yet children in care are expecting to

:37:52.:37:56.

be ready to go out into the world at the age of 18. Campaigners say

:37:56.:38:00.

that if they were supported for just a few more years fewer of them

:38:00.:38:04.

would end up in trouble and more of them might well end up in higher

:38:04.:38:12.

education. Last year 6,600 19-year-olds left

:38:12.:38:17.

care. Of those just 5% are living with former foster families. But

:38:17.:38:22.

under a 2008 pilot scheme, which funded foster care until aged 21,

:38:22.:38:27.

23% chose to stay in their foster homes, a significant increase. The

:38:27.:38:31.

cost of rolling this scheme out nationally would be around �2.6

:38:31.:38:37.

million. Today several MPs called on the Government to raise the age

:38:37.:38:42.

children leave foster care to 21. What difference have we made as

:38:42.:38:47.

parents if children in our care end up on the streets or in jail or

:38:47.:38:49.

with disabling mental health problems. Another generation doomed

:38:49.:38:54.

to mirror the lives of their own parents. Why would we not let them

:38:54.:38:57.

stay with their foster carers for those important extra three years.

:38:57.:39:01.

The minister said he wants local authorities to prioritise helping

:39:01.:39:07.

children to stay on in care. Or what's called "staying put". I have

:39:07.:39:12.

written to all directors of childrens' services for staying put

:39:12.:39:16.

arrangements and tax and benefit issues. But he didn't promise any

:39:16.:39:22.

legislation or any more money. Without more cash it is hard to see

:39:22.:39:26.

local Government prioritising it. The LGA has said that the

:39:26.:39:29.

Government cannot place new financial expectations on councils

:39:29.:39:39.
:39:39.:39:39.

at a time when they are imposing drastic cuts.

:39:39.:39:43.

In 2009 Caroline was a college student, studying performing arts.

:39:43.:39:47.

She hoped to go on to university and to be a social worker.

:39:47.:39:52.

Hopefully with my experience and then what I learn as well I can

:39:52.:40:00.

make childrens' lives better. she has her hands full with three-

:40:00.:40:04.

month-old Archie. After leaving foster care she moved in with hered

:40:04.:40:08.

dad. She dreads to think what would have happened if he hadn't been

:40:08.:40:11.

there. I was really immature, I would have gone down the route of

:40:11.:40:14.

drinking, probably drugs. If you hadn't lived with your dad? If I

:40:14.:40:19.

was out on the streets on my own or living in my own property, probably

:40:19.:40:23.

would have gone down that route. you think that's, is that your

:40:23.:40:27.

worry, do you think that is what is happening in a lot of places for a

:40:27.:40:31.

lot of people do you think? Yeah. I think they have not got the family

:40:31.:40:37.

support, the right friendship groups, they do go down the wrong

:40:37.:40:42.

route. So I think up until they are 21 or, like I say, even later in

:40:42.:40:45.

life. I think that the local authority should be there to

:40:45.:40:49.

support them and give them that family background, that family

:40:49.:40:54.

support that they do need. Phil is now working for an education

:40:54.:40:58.

charity and he's mentoring children. He thinks young people would get on

:40:58.:41:03.

better in life if they were cared for well into their 20s.

:41:03.:41:08.

I think they should extend the period so young people are in care

:41:08.:41:16.

to stay with their foster parents or gain extra skills. I wouldn't

:41:16.:41:22.

say 21 I would say 24, 25, like a normal young person with their

:41:22.:41:28.

biological parents. Normally they do stay up to 25, 28. So it just

:41:28.:41:32.

keeps us all on a level playing field. The campaign to raise the

:41:32.:41:37.

age for leaving foster care to 21 has stalled, because for now it is

:41:37.:41:41.

hard to see where the money will come from.

:41:41.:41:44.

Scientists in Singapore are said to have discovered the thing that

:41:44.:41:52.

every child desires, as HG Wells heros discovered, invisibility

:41:52.:41:55.

makes it possible to achieve all things people desire. Even if it

:41:55.:41:59.

makes impossible to enjoy them. It doesn't stop it being a dream.

:41:59.:42:04.

Indeed if these scientists are to be believed, it may not remain a

:42:04.:42:08.

dream indefinitely. Is it possible invisibility might really be

:42:08.:42:15.

achievable? Professor Chris Philips from Imperial College believes so,

:42:15.:42:19.

and he can explain why. Do you think it is impossible? No it is

:42:19.:42:23.

happening already. Let as look at these photographs we have got. I

:42:23.:42:26.

don't know if it is a cat or cold fish, both have been made to be

:42:26.:42:32.

invisible and not before time. Many would feel. Let's see if we can

:42:32.:42:38.

look at the pictures. No we can't. Yes we can. That is the goldfish.

:42:39.:42:48.
:42:49.:42:49.

There it is. There is the cat. It does disappear, how is it happening

:42:49.:42:57.

there? If you are a cat and you want to disappear. You go under the

:42:57.:43:00.

bed?. That is hiding, if you put a bag over your head people know you

:43:00.:43:03.

are there. If you want to be ins haveable you have to arrange for

:43:03.:43:07.

the light behind you, hide yourself and arrange for the image behind

:43:07.:43:10.

you to come around you and to be brought back together just as if

:43:10.:43:13.

you weren't there. That is what that device does. It is a kind of.

:43:14.:43:19.

You could see it was a plate or something inside the goldfish tank?

:43:19.:43:25.

I think it is a set of crystals. What is actually happening?

:43:25.:43:28.

means the background image is being guided around the cat and brought

:43:28.:43:33.

back together. If the cat sits in the middle of the device it

:43:33.:43:41.

disappears and vanishs. Why is that useful or worth scientific

:43:41.:43:45.

research? It is an example, you notes these stories are come --

:43:45.:43:48.

knows these stories crumbing through more and more, of people's

:43:48.:43:52.

quest to control light, the bending of light. Why is that useful?We

:43:53.:43:57.

had an example early on when Jeremy was there with his live pictures

:43:57.:44:00.

from Turkey. Those pictures were actually being turned into tiny

:44:00.:44:05.

little flashes of light and sent to us down a cable of optic fibre. At

:44:05.:44:10.

every point in those optic fibres and the Internet you want it make

:44:10.:44:15.

circuits out of light. You know instead of making circuits out of

:44:15.:44:19.

electronics, you would like to send thes of light around, this research

:44:19.:44:24.

that yields the cloaks is driven by the quest to control light inside

:44:24.:44:31.

the optic circuits. You used the word "cloak", talking the language

:44:31.:44:35.

of Harry Potter. It didn't look like a cloak, it looked like a

:44:35.:44:42.

plate of some kind. Are we talking about something feesably as

:44:42.:44:46.

effective as a piece of clothing? That thing doesn't have to be

:44:46.:44:50.

flexible, if you can't be seen that is the idea of the cloak. There are

:44:50.:44:55.

other ways of vanishing, you can do something called adaptive

:44:55.:44:59.

camouflage, where you have cameras that are connected to electronics

:44:59.:45:04.

in your coach, and you have a coat that is a flexible TV screen. That

:45:04.:45:08.

would show the picture behind you, if you get it all right it would

:45:08.:45:13.

look like you have vanished. As far as the invisibility cloak of the

:45:13.:45:18.

other kind, the light-bending cloak? We call that a cloak, yes.

:45:18.:45:23.

How far off are scientists from App Developersing or discovering such a

:45:23.:45:28.

thing and other people developing it? It has been demonstrated in

:45:28.:45:32.

radio waves, it is easier to make the wavelengths that we can't see.

:45:32.:45:37.

There is a man called John Pendry at Imperial College, he was the

:45:37.:45:41.

first to develop the idea. The first demonstration was with radio

:45:41.:45:45.

wave, it would hide something from ray door. To make one that hides

:45:45.:45:48.

things at light frequencies is harder but an engineering problem

:45:48.:45:57.

and it will get there in the next 20 years or so. Thank you very much.

:45:57.:46:07.
:46:07.:46:44.

There you are, hoisted with your on It is the moment for us all to be

:46:45.:46:49.

invisible, not before time you may agree. We will materialise again

:46:49.:46:59.
:46:59.:47:23.

tomorrow. Good night. Much warmer night

:47:23.:47:28.

tonight compared to last night. A humid feel on Wednesday. But quite

:47:28.:47:32.

a lot of cloud again. We will see sunshine developing, sunny spells

:47:32.:47:35.

through central and eastern Scotland, eastern England also

:47:35.:47:39.

brightening up. Further south a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain.

:47:39.:47:42.

Sunny spells across Northern Ireland. Clouding over here once

:47:42.:47:46.

more. Probably a wet start for northern Scotland. It looks dryer

:47:46.:47:50.

by the afternoon. Sunny spells for most of the day through the central

:47:50.:47:54.

belt. Cloud returning bringing rain here during the evening. Mostly

:47:54.:47:59.

grey across North West of England. We could hit 20 with a little

:47:59.:48:02.

sunshine. For the bulk of England and Wales, temperatures will be in

:48:02.:48:07.

the mid-teens, and rain will return to many southern areas, it looks

:48:07.:48:11.

like during the day. Turning increasingly windy, the wind

:48:11.:48:14.

picking up across South Wales and south-west England. Especially

:48:14.:48:17.

during Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday looks like being

:48:17.:48:21.

a fairly blustery day. There will be some sunny spells. Interest will

:48:21.:48:23.

be bands of showery rain, particularly across the northern

:48:23.:48:27.

half of the UK. Further south there will be a few showers around, we

:48:27.:48:30.

should see a little more in the way of sunshine here on Thursday.

:48:30.:48:33.

Slightly fresher feel however, temperatures being down, it won't

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The green shoots of economic recovery; the Turks attack their protesters; Russia's treatment of gays and the science of invisibility. With Jeremy Paxman.


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