06/08/2013 Newsnight


06/08/2013

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diplomats have pulled out of Yemen and western visitors are told to

:00:15.:00:18.

leave immediately. Embassies across the Middle East are shut, but can

:00:18.:00:27.

the threat from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula be contained?

:00:27.:00:32.

Americans America's special operations forces are being readied,

:00:32.:00:36.

it looks like escalation. What about the people who can't

:00:36.:00:41.

leave? We follow the Yemeni villagers living and dying with the

:00:41.:00:51.
:00:51.:00:53.

daily reality of American drone strikes.

:00:53.:01:00.

Here doctors and nurses should aim for zero-harm to patients. Or be

:01:00.:01:03.

prosecuted for willful misconduct, but no finger pointing when things

:01:03.:01:09.

go wrong. We will hear from the man who wrote today's NHS report for

:01:09.:01:15.

David Cameron. And it lives! The British economy

:01:15.:01:18.

has started twitching again, but behind the new numbers, is this

:01:19.:01:24.

really what you would want to call a recovery? Is the resurrection for

:01:24.:01:34.
:01:34.:01:36.

real? Is there a risk of driving a stake through its heart.

:01:36.:01:40.

Good evening, the exodus of westerners from Yemen continued

:01:40.:01:44.

today amid on going fears over the terror threat in the country.

:01:44.:01:47.

British diplomatic staff are already on route to the UK. It

:01:48.:01:53.

comes after the New York Times reported that American Security

:01:53.:01:56.

Services intercepted phone conversations between two senior

:01:56.:02:00.

members of Al-Qaeda. Rp presenting, the paper says, the most serious

:02:00.:02:05.

plot since 9/11. Our diplomatic editor is here with

:02:05.:02:09.

more. What can you tell us? I understand they are now looking

:02:09.:02:12.

at sending special operations forces into Yemen. These sorts of

:02:12.:02:17.

people have been in and out of there in recent years as training

:02:17.:02:21.

team members or in liaison roles in relation to some of those drone

:02:21.:02:24.

strikes. But the sort of option that is now being looked at is the

:02:24.:02:28.

sort of option that would give them a strike option against the Al-

:02:28.:02:31.

Qaeda leadership, able to mount the kind of operations we have seen in

:02:32.:02:37.

Iraq and Afghanistan in recent years. What is the threat? It is

:02:37.:02:42.

interesting, there seems to have been a whole tiered bit of

:02:42.:02:46.

intelligence reporting from across the region, tiered levels, if you

:02:46.:02:50.

like, of different types of intelligence coming in, being

:02:50.:02:55.

assessed in different place. We know that the Americans across the

:02:55.:02:58.

region have basically shut up shop with embassies in 19 countries.

:02:58.:03:06.

Right the way from Tripoli over on the west of that map in Libya to

:03:06.:03:15.

Muscat in the east, Sana'a, Kay row, ma -- Cairo, major stations. It

:03:16.:03:19.

comes from chatter, Ramadan at the end, and Muslim countries may want

:03:19.:03:24.

to do actual attacks and protests on American interests. There is the

:03:24.:03:30.

much more specific stuff about Aden and Sana'a, we know from the New

:03:30.:03:34.

York Times report that they intercepted conversations between

:03:34.:03:44.
:03:44.:03:45.

Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda, and Tony Way, the

:03:45.:03:52.

competent atrb and the competent affiliate of Al-Qaeda. It would be

:03:52.:03:56.

range to say you were listening to the phone calls if that was the

:03:56.:03:58.

method you were using. Others say it was electronic communication, a

:03:59.:04:01.

little vague there. There is another level of intelligence

:04:01.:04:08.

reporting down at the ground level in Sana'a, we know for example from

:04:08.:04:11.

the Yemeni Interior Ministry that they have tracked Al-Qaeda

:04:11.:04:15.

militants coming into Sana'a ready to mount attacks on western

:04:15.:04:21.

interests there. Also things hotting up in the country with a

:04:21.:04:25.

further drone strike north of the apple in the Marib province, said

:04:25.:04:33.

to have killed four people, including two on the Yemeni 25 most

:04:33.:04:37.

wanted list. Also there has been US manned aircraft over the country.

:04:37.:04:43.

Is the UK's assessment of the risk the same as the US? It seems less

:04:43.:04:47.

stark. People in Whitehall argue that the Americans may be taking no

:04:47.:04:51.

chances because of what happened in September when they lost an

:04:51.:04:55.

ambassador. The UK's view is not to get involved with the drone strikes

:04:55.:04:58.

and with the direct action-type forces.

:04:59.:05:05.

Let as talk now to Conservative MP, Rory Stewart, who recently returned

:05:05.:05:11.

from Yemen. And dword Gordon director of planning during the

:05:11.:05:18.

George W Bush era and now a risk consultant. David Gordon, let me

:05:18.:05:23.

ask you for your reaction to the fact that American Special Forces

:05:23.:05:28.

are readying for deployment? think here that what the Americans

:05:28.:05:36.

are getting ready for is the possibility of a new type of Al-

:05:36.:05:44.

Qaeda attack, based more on what happened in Benghazi than on the

:05:44.:05:49.

traditional purely terrorist attack that you have an instantaneous

:05:49.:05:53.

event, it has happened, something very, very big blows up. In

:05:53.:05:59.

Benghazi as we saw there was this massing of extremists and militants

:05:59.:06:05.

attacking a number of targets. I think that's what Special Forces

:06:05.:06:10.

are being readied to protect and go directed against. Of course we

:06:10.:06:16.

don't really know exactly what the threat is here? Rory Stewart, is it

:06:16.:06:20.

a good idea? Is it a good idea to withdraw British diplomats. Is it a

:06:20.:06:23.

good idea to get the special fores ready for deployment? I think we

:06:23.:06:27.

need to understand what this threat is. In that I really agree with

:06:27.:06:30.

David, we are really moving in the dark here. Unless we actually know

:06:30.:06:34.

what the threat is it is very difficult to understand. It is very

:06:34.:06:37.

unusual to have a situation where you would remove all your British

:06:37.:06:42.

diplomats out of a country. Normally in somewhere like Iraq and

:06:42.:06:46.

Afghanistan where there are very severe threats or even Yemen where

:06:46.:06:51.

we have had bad threats for a few years, you look down the embassy

:06:51.:06:54.

and trust the embassy defences to keep people out. I suspect there

:06:54.:06:56.

must be something very strange going on here in the nature of the

:06:56.:07:02.

threat. Meaning what?It must be something where they must guess and

:07:02.:07:06.

maybe David's right the Benghazi analogy is the right one, that the

:07:06.:07:09.

traditional defences of the embassy would not be enough to keep out the

:07:09.:07:14.

threat. Mr Gordon, are you surprised that US intelligence

:07:14.:07:18.

released such specific details about intercepting the

:07:18.:07:22.

communications between these two senior Al-Qaeda leaders? Well, I

:07:22.:07:29.

think part of the intent here was prevention, to say we know what you

:07:29.:07:34.

are up to, you better not do this. It is a bit unusual, but I think

:07:34.:07:44.
:07:44.:07:47.

that this is part of this is for whatever reason is there is a

:07:47.:07:52.

chance that the terrorists know we know they are about to do something

:07:52.:07:56.

they may not do it. Can I also say we need to distinguish the

:07:56.:08:01.

terrorist threats from what has been happening in Yemen, that has

:08:01.:08:06.

been much more positive in the last two years than anyone expected. It

:08:06.:08:09.

is surprising now we find ourselves looking at Yemen in this way. If

:08:09.:08:13.

you look at all the negotiation happening, people predicted civil

:08:13.:08:17.

war, they predicted chaos, actually things have been much better

:08:17.:08:22.

recently. Do you really think so? The problem of Yemen and Al-Qaeda

:08:22.:08:25.

operatives there has been around for a number of years, hasn't it?

:08:25.:08:30.

It has, but if you go back a year or 18 months, Al-Qaeda were holding

:08:30.:08:35.

territory in Yemen. That was gotten rid of, they no longer hold the

:08:36.:08:38.

territory. There was going to be huge problems between seperatists

:08:38.:08:42.

in the south and groups in the north, it didn't really materialise.

:08:42.:08:46.

Yemen has been more peaceful than people feared. Is that how it has

:08:46.:08:54.

been seen in Washington? I think Yemen is still seen as being the

:08:54.:08:58.

territory for a very capable Al- Qaeda group. But I think Rory is

:08:58.:09:02.

right that in terms of how people were thinking about Yemen a year or

:09:02.:09:07.

two ago, it was quite a bit more negative than what we have seen.

:09:07.:09:14.

Look, I think what we may be seeing here is Al-Qaeda leadership in

:09:14.:09:19.

Afghanistan and Pakistan urging the Al-Qaeda affiliates in the Middle

:09:19.:09:26.

East, in North Africa, in the Levant, to do something against a

:09:26.:09:31.

western target. Because in effect the centre piece of the Al-Qaeda

:09:31.:09:34.

resurgence in this part of the world has been in Syria. What they

:09:34.:09:41.

have really been doing here is fighting against Assad and

:09:41.:09:47.

Hezbollah. I think what Al-Zawahiri is trying to say here is, yes it is

:09:47.:09:52.

OK to become domestically focused on the near enemy, but don't lose

:09:52.:09:56.

sight of the ultimate target of Al- Qaeda and that is the west and we

:09:56.:10:03.

need to do something to show that we are still a form mid-able anti-

:10:03.:10:07.

western organisation. -- Formidable anti-western

:10:07.:10:10.

organisation. How should the west deal with that? We need to deal

:10:10.:10:14.

cautiously. What I mean by this is we mustn't upset a lot of the

:10:14.:10:17.

progress that has been made in Yemen. In the long run the way to

:10:17.:10:21.

deal with a terrorist threat in Yemen is to get stability in that

:10:21.:10:24.

country. That stability is painfully getting there. It has

:10:24.:10:27.

been getting there because we managed to hold Russia and China

:10:27.:10:32.

and the United States and France and Britain together with the whole

:10:32.:10:35.

gulf operation council. Very unusual to have all these countries

:10:35.:10:40.

co-operating. What we want to avoid is an anti-terrorist strategy that

:10:40.:10:44.

begins to disrupt the stability that is beginning to emerge. Let's

:10:44.:10:47.

hope that whatever this is we are going to get back to diplomatic

:10:47.:10:54.

operations, so we will be able to reopen these embassies. No more

:10:54.:10:59.

drones? Drone strikes will continue in Yemen. Would you like them to

:10:59.:11:05.

stop? Sorry?Would you like them to stop? Am I in favour of drone

:11:05.:11:10.

strikes? I'm not, for different reasons I'm not a great fan of

:11:10.:11:15.

drone strikes, I think we can expect them to continue in Yemen

:11:15.:11:19.

for the foreseeable future. It is clear the US thinks Yemen is

:11:20.:11:23.

the new frontline in the war with Al-Qaeda, which is why they have

:11:23.:11:28.

been sending as many drones there as they have to Pakistan and

:11:28.:11:31.

Afghanistan. Strikes by drone aircraft have wiped out a whole

:11:31.:11:36.

generation of Al-Qaeda's leadership. But is the use of them creating as

:11:36.:11:42.

many enemies as they are killing? We have been to Zinjibar in

:11:42.:11:50.

southern Yemen. The report contains some disturbing images.

:11:50.:11:55.

We're heading into Zinjibar in southern Yemen. For years Al-Qaeda

:11:55.:12:00.

in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, have planned attacks from this part

:12:00.:12:05.

of the country. There have been Yemeni army operations on the

:12:05.:12:10.

ground, American drone strikes from the air, and repeated Al-Qaeda

:12:10.:12:16.

counter strikes. This is a town under siege. On the streets we can

:12:16.:12:22.

find little public support for Al- Qaeda. But plenty of anger over the

:12:22.:12:32.
:12:32.:12:44.

drones that target AQAP. What do you blame for the retruction of

:12:44.:12:54.
:12:54.:13:16.

Winning the support of people like this is crucial in America's fight

:13:16.:13:20.

against extremism. The people here fear US drones as much as they fear

:13:20.:13:30.
:13:30.:13:36.

Mohhamed Bagash and his two children were outside a health

:13:36.:13:40.

clinic when it was hit by an American strike. They ran to a

:13:40.:13:50.
:13:50.:14:09.

school and hid in the basement, He carried his children out, his

:14:09.:14:19.
:14:19.:14:32.

son survived but his eight-year-old daughter bled to death. 15

:14:32.:14:37.

eyewitnesses reported seeing a drone hovering in the air, and two

:14:37.:14:47.
:14:47.:14:52.

President Obama has said that drone strikes kill far fewer civilians

:14:52.:14:58.

than conventional bombing or ground operations. In the capital, Sana'a,

:14:58.:15:05.

I have come to meet one of the most pro--American voices in Yemen.

:15:05.:15:09.

Farea Al-Muslimi runs a pro- democracy organisation. He thinks

:15:09.:15:19.
:15:19.:15:23.

the drone war is playing right into Al-Qaeda's hands.

:15:23.:15:27.

I think the drones have been one of the effective tools for Al-Qaeda in

:15:27.:15:31.

Yemen. A big part of power for Al- Qaeda at the moment is to convince

:15:31.:15:36.

Yemenis that they are in a war with Yemen and they are attacking the

:15:36.:15:40.

sovereignty. One of the biggest mistakes he says is the way that

:15:40.:15:44.

the US deals with civilian casualties. You are killing

:15:44.:15:49.

civilians for no need and you are not even going to say sorry or

:15:49.:15:57.

admit it or issue apology or pay compensation. Last September Ahmed

:15:57.:16:03.

was working in the fields outside the town, his father, mother and

:16:03.:16:07.

sister had gone to visit the local health clinic. It was 3.00pm when

:16:07.:16:17.
:16:17.:16:42.

he heard a buzzing noise in the sky, He jumped on his motorbike to see

:16:42.:16:46.

what had happened, when he got there he found that two missiles

:16:46.:16:56.
:16:56.:17:24.

This footage was given to us by a local journalist. It is too

:17:24.:17:28.

gruesome to show in full. The truck was packed with passengers coming

:17:28.:17:33.

back from the market. The target was probably a local Al-Qaeda

:17:33.:17:38.

leader, seen travelling on the same stretch of road. He got away, but

:17:38.:17:48.
:17:48.:18:02.

13 people were incinerated. The few people that survived were taken to

:18:02.:18:05.

the local clinic, they report seeing at least one drone and two

:18:05.:18:15.
:18:15.:18:15.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 65 seconds

:18:15.:19:21.

In an off the record quote, given to a US newspaper, US officials did

:19:21.:19:24.

concede it was an American strike. But there has been no American

:19:24.:19:29.

acknowledgement or apology to the families of the 13 victims in Yemen.

:19:29.:19:39.
:19:39.:19:53.

What does your community think, who do they blame for this? What would

:19:53.:20:03.
:20:03.:20:08.

you say to the people who ordered this strike? The Yemeni Government

:20:08.:20:12.

has promised an investigation into the attack. But no-one we spoke to

:20:12.:20:18.

has seen any evidence of an inquiry. One group that does claim to offer

:20:18.:20:23.

justice and redress is Al-Qaeda. We have heard many reports of Al-

:20:23.:20:27.

Qaeda appearing after air strikes offering compensation and

:20:28.:20:32.

increasing recruitment. Al-Qaeda have stepped in to help rebuild

:20:32.:20:36.

homes, they provide funeral costs and offer financial support to the

:20:36.:20:39.

families of those killed and injured. They also pressure the

:20:39.:20:43.

relatives of those killed to join up to gain revenge. It is clear

:20:43.:20:48.

that even when they lose active members, Al-Qaeda use these strikes

:20:48.:20:53.

as an opportunity to recruit many more.

:20:53.:20:57.

President Obama has said there is little chance of capturing

:20:57.:21:02.

militants, Yemen is too weak. The state's reach too limited. He says

:21:02.:21:05.

sometimes the only option is to kill.

:21:06.:21:11.

But here many argue suspects can be caught, and they accuse the United

:21:11.:21:18.

States of extra judicial execution. Anwar al-Awlaki was chief

:21:18.:21:24.

propagandaist for AQAP, a Yemeni- American, he called for attacks on

:21:24.:21:31.

American targets. He had close ties to the underwear bomber who tried

:21:31.:21:39.

to explode a bomb in an aeroplane over Detroit in 2009. I'm on the

:21:39.:21:45.

way to meet Mr Al-Awlaki's father. He says he was negotiating a deal

:21:45.:21:50.

that would have seen his son stand trial, instead his son was killed

:21:50.:21:55.

by an air strike. But your son was preaching hate and himself had

:21:56.:22:01.

praised attacks on America? Even if he made some of those sermons that

:22:01.:22:05.

could be classified as hate sermons, I don't think it is right for the

:22:05.:22:09.

United States to go and kill him. But he is accused of being involved

:22:09.:22:14.

in the airliner plot? Legally these are only allegations. They have not

:22:14.:22:22.

been proven in a court of law. I don't know that in any court that

:22:22.:22:25.

those allegations were proven against my son. If there are any

:22:25.:22:30.

allegations against my son the United States Government could have

:22:30.:22:35.

done something else going to court, but they didn't do that, they went

:22:35.:22:40.

ahead and killed him. Mr Al-Awlaki said the ideology that consumed his

:22:40.:22:47.

son is now taking many more. There were maybe 300 people who were in

:22:47.:22:55.

Al-Qaeda. Now we are talking about thousands of people, all over Yemen.

:22:55.:23:00.

We asked an interview with the US Ambassador in Yemen, our request

:23:00.:23:04.

was declined. The Yemeni Foreign Minister did agree to an interview.

:23:04.:23:08.

We began by asking whether America's targeting of Yemenis in

:23:08.:23:18.
:23:18.:23:19.

Yemen a threat to the country's sovereignty. I think sovereignty is

:23:19.:23:23.

in danger if it is done without the approval of the Government. If it

:23:23.:23:28.

is done with the approval of the Government and for the interests of

:23:28.:23:31.

the Yemeni people and their fight against terrorism, I don't think

:23:31.:23:34.

this applies. But it is making people angry?

:23:34.:23:39.

know, it make everybody angry to see drones coming and hitting

:23:39.:23:46.

targets in Yemen. And killing civilians? This is accidental, they

:23:46.:23:52.

are not targeting. Innocent people get killed, unfortunately. Every

:23:52.:23:56.

Yemeni we have spoken to said target strikes acted as a useful

:23:56.:24:00.

recruitment tool for them? I have heard this argument, there might be

:24:00.:24:06.

some truth in it. But I think the fact is that if your targets are

:24:07.:24:11.

Al-Qaeda leaders and if they are in dangering the security of your

:24:11.:24:17.

country, there is no alternative. The future of this conflict will

:24:17.:24:21.

depend on whether America can convince Yemenis that it is on

:24:21.:24:25.

their side. Every night in the back streets,

:24:25.:24:30.

young kids get together for a game of football. But growing up in

:24:30.:24:39.

Yemen is hard. Their prospects are bleak. Corruption is endemic,

:24:40.:24:49.
:24:50.:24:50.

Yemenis are in poverty. It will take more than this to get rid of

:24:50.:24:54.

Al-Qaeda. The US provides hundreds of thousands of dollars in aid to

:24:54.:25:00.

Yemen. But the noise from targeted strikes is drowning out other

:25:00.:25:03.

progress. And whilst America continues to decimate Al-Qaeda from

:25:03.:25:10.

the sky, opposition in the streets is growing. At ground level winning

:25:10.:25:17.

in Yemen is harder than it look. You can see more of that reporting

:25:17.:25:24.

from Yemen on Our World on the news channel this weekend.

:25:24.:25:28.

For avid economy watchers in this country there have been several

:25:28.:25:33.

sightings of a rare breed in the last few days, good news and quite

:25:33.:25:37.

a lot of it. Sales up, house prices up, even manufacturing up, for some

:25:37.:25:41.

it is enough to declare bomb times and break open the champagne. With

:25:41.:25:45.

most people still worse off than before the crash, so this recovery

:25:45.:25:49.

be like the British summer, unexpected, much celebrated and

:25:49.:25:52.

short lived. We have been finding out.

:25:52.:25:59.

The sun is out, the bars are open. The economy, like this cocktail, is

:25:59.:26:07.

exhibiting qualities of fire on top of ice. Growth amid Austerry, and

:26:07.:26:16.

in ever-larger dollop, led -- what matters is whether economic policy

:26:16.:26:21.

can stain this growth, and that depends on what is causing it.

:26:21.:26:26.

Today official figures showed a marked upturn in manufacturing, it

:26:26.:26:31.

grew by 1.9% in May and June. There has been a rise in the all-

:26:31.:26:34.

important service sector, that makes up two thirds of the economy.

:26:34.:26:40.

It is now growing faster than at any time through 2006. That has got

:26:40.:26:44.

economists rapidly remixing their GDP predictions. At the moment the

:26:44.:26:48.

good news just keeps on coming, it looks like maybe some sort of

:26:48.:26:52.

momentum is building in the economy. Some people have talked about the

:26:52.:26:55.

economy reaching escape velocity. Where the recovery becomes self-

:26:55.:27:01.

Steyning. I think that is maybe a bit over -- self sustaining, I

:27:01.:27:05.

think that is maybe a bit over the stop. Things are on a firmer

:27:05.:27:10.

footing than a few months ago. you dig into the details, there the

:27:10.:27:15.

problems start? The signs are all the bonhomie is being driven by

:27:15.:27:21.

lower saving and easier borrowing. If that is true and inflation takes

:27:22.:27:25.

off then the Governor of the Bank of England, Jay Carney, will be

:27:25.:27:29.

forced, or come under -- Mark Carney, will be forced to or come

:27:29.:27:32.

under pressure to raise interest rates. That is something he wishes

:27:32.:27:39.

to put off for as long as possible. In the first quarter we saw the

:27:39.:27:44.

savings ratio lower than for a long time. That poses dangers for the

:27:44.:27:48.

medium-to-long-term, first of all it may not be sustainable, and as a

:27:48.:27:55.

country we need to save more not less. Mark Carney gets the first

:27:55.:28:01.

taste of the limelight, the word is he will give a clear signal to keep

:28:02.:28:05.

interest rates low for a period. Something that did work in the US.

:28:06.:28:10.

If he fixes the rate too long and inflation eats up people's wages

:28:10.:28:14.

that could choke off the recovery, again. I think he will press ahead

:28:14.:28:18.

tomorrow with commit to go keep interest rates low for a long time

:28:18.:28:21.

until for example unemployment comes down to a certain rate. Some

:28:21.:28:27.

people think he doesn't need to do that any more, but the economy is

:28:28.:28:31.

picking up momentum. I think now is the time to keep interest rates low

:28:31.:28:36.

so people don't expect a rise and that snuffs out the recovery

:28:36.:28:42.

finally getting going. The bank also has to use its muscle to

:28:42.:28:48.

squash any new housing bubble. That has never been done before. There

:28:48.:28:52.

is no free lunch here. It is clearly a risk that if the governor

:28:52.:28:57.

guarantees interest rates will stay at zero for a very long time that

:28:57.:29:02.

does stoke up bubbles and risks eroding the credibility of monetary

:29:02.:29:04.

policy. It is a risk, but the risk of the other way that interest

:29:04.:29:10.

rates shoot up and choke off the recovery is probably going to be

:29:10.:29:14.

the determining factor here. Even if we do achieve lift-off, this

:29:14.:29:20.

chart shows how far we have to go. It logs the output of all the UK's

:29:20.:29:24.

productive industries, and shows we are nowhere near output at the peak.

:29:24.:29:27.

It is the rate of recovery, however temporary, that is politically

:29:27.:29:32.

important. For the past three years the political climate has been

:29:32.:29:38.

decidedly non-but colic, with the politicians -- non-bucolic,

:29:38.:29:42.

politicians aware that the buzz in London is not created elsewhere.

:29:42.:29:45.

Now economic growth is rising and spreading, you are beginning to

:29:45.:29:51.

hear two words you never thought you might in the same sentence,

:29:51.:29:57.

that is "autumn" and "election". Yes it is uneven and patchy growth,

:29:57.:30:00.

and if wages don't start to rise yes it will be hard to sustain. But

:30:00.:30:06.

it is starting to alter the political arithmetic.

:30:06.:30:11.

We talk to Allister Heath, the editor of City AM, and Kate Barker

:30:11.:30:15.

an economist and former member of the Monetary Policy Committee. How

:30:15.:30:19.

real is this, how tangible this recovery? The data we have had over

:30:19.:30:22.

the past couple of months has really been a lot stronger. It

:30:22.:30:26.

feels as though both business and consumers are starting to get some

:30:26.:30:30.

confidence back. That has been very badly lacking in the economy. I

:30:30.:30:33.

think this is good news. We have to be careful, we are coming are from

:30:33.:30:37.

a very long period of a very long depression. Output is still more

:30:37.:30:44.

than 3% lower than it was in 2008. It is a long way from a normal

:30:44.:30:48.

economy. In the piece we had know we talked about low savings rates

:30:48.:30:52.

and impaired banking sector. There is a long way to go before we hit

:30:52.:30:56.

something that feels normal. Despite the figures people are

:30:56.:30:59.

really struggling?. People are still getting poorer and wages are

:30:59.:31:03.

not going up as much as inflation. People are substantially poorer

:31:03.:31:08.

than a few years ago. I'm worried about this growth. It is the wrong

:31:08.:31:13.

kind of growth. It is growth fuelled once again by excessive

:31:13.:31:15.

consumer spending rather than increasing the production for the

:31:15.:31:19.

economy. We are not producing more or exporting more, we are spending

:31:19.:31:22.

more. What are we using to spend, we haven't got the wages or cash?

:31:22.:31:26.

No, so people are dipping into their savings and also the

:31:26.:31:31.

Government is fuelling increased borrowing and trying to stimulate

:31:31.:31:34.

the mortgage market is subsidising credit, is subsidising mortgages.

:31:34.:31:37.

That is quite a dangerous route, feel we have not really learned the

:31:37.:31:41.

lessons of the past. The economy is not being rebalanced. Yes it has

:31:41.:31:45.

grown, yes the news is good, and yes probably GDP will go up by much

:31:45.:31:50.

more than anybody thought this year. I don't really think it is

:31:50.:31:53.

sustainable in terms it is not high-quality growth or the growth

:31:53.:31:58.

we need to get out of the bubble we have seen for the last few years.

:31:58.:32:02.

The Governor of the Bank of England is expected to know tomorrow what

:32:02.:32:08.

the base rate will be. For a considerable period of time this

:32:08.:32:12.

called "forward guidance"? I don't know about this being the right

:32:12.:32:16.

sort of recovery. I don't think it is something that is started with

:32:16.:32:19.

consumer spending, you have to start somewhere. That will bring

:32:19.:32:24.

the production along with it. We won't produce if there is no demand,

:32:24.:32:28.

it is difficult to export at the moment. We have to look to the

:32:28.:32:33.

domestic consumer to get that back. What is the governor doing? We

:32:33.:32:37.

start to get people talking about interest rates going up. What he

:32:37.:32:40.

has to do tomorrow is to try to tell with us what are the

:32:40.:32:43.

circumstances in which the bank is going to start to put interest

:32:43.:32:47.

rates up, to try to stop people speculating month by month that is

:32:47.:32:50.

what is going to happen. He has quite a difficult job. I have been

:32:50.:32:54.

on the committee. The other eight members are pretty feisty and have

:32:54.:32:59.

quite different views. He isn't just going to give his views but

:32:59.:33:05.

the views of the committee. I think he will try to say to the public

:33:05.:33:09.

that they will keep bank rates low for some time, until unemployment

:33:09.:33:14.

is falling and wages picking up. If we don't see wages pick up we are

:33:14.:33:19.

not on our way back to recovery. What if he and the rest of the

:33:19.:33:22.

committee decide they need to pick up the base rate because inflation

:33:22.:33:26.

starts to shoot up and people have taken out mortgage, loans and so on

:33:26.:33:29.

and so forth, based on the fact that the base rate will stay low

:33:29.:33:33.

for a considerable period of time. It is a dangerous promise to be

:33:33.:33:36.

waiting at the moment. With the economy starting to grow we will

:33:36.:33:39.

start seeing inflationary pressures. What about the principle first of

:33:39.:33:44.

all? The principle of trying to say, look, I'm not going to put up rates

:33:44.:33:47.

unless something happens, unemployment falls or the economy

:33:47.:33:51.

starts to grow faster. That is fine. The problem is, at a time like now

:33:51.:33:56.

it is hard to predict anything like this. He's going to promise the

:33:56.:33:59.

wrong thing. I don't think now is the time for extended period of low

:33:59.:34:03.

interest rates. Quite the contrary. 0.5 interest rates in this country,

:34:03.:34:07.

a crisis level of interest rates, an emergency level of interest

:34:07.:34:10.

rates. We are no longer in the emergency situation. The economy is

:34:10.:34:13.

growing. You have retail sales going up, manufacturing, you have

:34:13.:34:16.

all the good figures coming out of the economy and we shouldn't be

:34:16.:34:21.

talking about keeping rates low for another six months. You would put

:34:21.:34:25.

the base rate up by how much? quarter or half a point. For what

:34:25.:34:30.

purpose? First to send a symbolic signal to show the economy is

:34:30.:34:35.

recovering and the bank is more confident and rates should go up.

:34:35.:34:40.

It is a pro-growth move. To start warning people rates will go up

:34:40.:34:42.

more as the economy continues to grow and they need to get their

:34:42.:34:47.

finances in order, and they need to reduce borrowing and rates starting

:34:47.:34:51.

to up properly. Do we need that warning? I disagree with that.

:34:51.:34:56.

Firstly, I think if we started to put rates up a little bit, there is

:34:56.:35:02.

a big risk that markets would get carried away push the yield up, it

:35:02.:35:06.

will affect money for the long-term for companies. I don't agree with

:35:06.:35:09.

the proposition that once rate go up they have to go up a long way.

:35:09.:35:13.

In terms of bank rate we know, of course, that other rate, the rates

:35:13.:35:19.

people are borrowing at are well above 0.5 indeed. It has been very

:35:19.:35:23.

difficult to get rates as low as we would have liked. I don't think

:35:23.:35:28.

they need to go up a long way in the next few years. I wouldn't want

:35:28.:35:31.

to start warning people of thated today.

:35:31.:35:34.

Patient safety should be the English NHS's top priority. That

:35:34.:35:41.

was the message today from no less than a former healthcare adviser to

:35:41.:35:45.

Barack Obama. In the wake of needless suffering in some of our

:35:45.:35:49.

hospital, the Government asked Professor Don Berwick to assess

:35:49.:35:55.

what had gone wrong. His review spoke of a zero-harm culture, tried

:35:55.:35:59.

in Scotland, and a new criminal offence of willful misconduct he

:35:59.:36:04.

doesn't seem the need to prosecute health workers who fail to report

:36:04.:36:14.
:36:14.:36:40.

mistakes. He doesn't also want In the two-and-a-half thousand

:36:40.:36:44.

years since the hippocratic oath was written, healthcare has changed

:36:44.:36:49.

immeasurably. But the tenet of the oath remain the same. And yet, in

:36:49.:36:52.

the 21st century, in spite of all the developments that should have

:36:52.:36:57.

made looking after patients safer, many more than expected still die

:36:57.:37:04.

under NHS care. Today one of the world's leading experts on patient

:37:04.:37:09.

safety published his plans to create a culture of called "zero-

:37:09.:37:15.

harm" in the NHS. One of Professor Don Berwick's findings is NHS staff

:37:15.:37:20.

are not to blame. He says in the vast majority of cases it is the

:37:20.:37:24.

systems, procedure, conditions, the environment and constraints they

:37:24.:37:30.

face that lead to patient safety problems.

:37:30.:37:33.

His recommendations include that staffing numbers should be adequate

:37:33.:37:38.

and decided locally. He did not recommend minimum staffing levels.

:37:38.:37:42.

Criminal sanctions should apply to reckless and willful neglect or

:37:42.:37:47.

mistreatment of patients. But that unintended errors must not be

:37:47.:37:51.

criminalised. Staff should speak up when things go wrong. But there

:37:51.:37:56.

should be no blame culture. More simple regulation with an

:37:56.:38:01.

independent review by the end of 2017.

:38:01.:38:04.

While patient and nursing groups welcome the report, they say

:38:04.:38:08.

opportunities have been missed. doesn't go far enough. We know from

:38:08.:38:13.

evidence, from countries like Australia, and from the United

:38:13.:38:18.

States, California by way of example, staffing level are decreed

:38:18.:38:21.

in law. Organisation are not permitted to go below the minimum.

:38:21.:38:26.

Where we have had problems in some parts of the NHS, it has often been

:38:26.:38:31.

the case that you had far too few people on frontline doing the job.

:38:31.:38:35.

We believe at some stage by law minimum staffing levels would be

:38:35.:38:42.

set. We think that is in everyone's interest. My charity here is on a

:38:42.:38:45.

daily basis are hearing horrendous stories about what has gone wrong

:38:45.:38:51.

in the NHS. That hasn't gone away. This report might be a small step

:38:51.:38:55.

in getting the patient safety, culture and communication needs

:38:55.:39:04.

that we have. It can only work to complement the report about Mid-

:39:04.:39:07.

Staffordshire. That report made 290 recommendations which is when

:39:07.:39:14.

patient safety really came to the fore. In the cake of that inquiry,

:39:14.:39:19.

England's Medical Director, Sir Bruce Keogh, investigated 14 NHS

:39:19.:39:23.

Trusts in England, 11 have been placed in special measures. While

:39:23.:39:30.

those reports looked at specific trusts, this review is welcomed by

:39:30.:39:35.

some as encouraging culture change across the NHS. Those serious

:39:35.:39:38.

incidents of disastrous care are wrong, thankfully. Never the less

:39:38.:39:41.

the whole system could do a lot better to focus more on patient

:39:42.:39:46.

safety. This report was taking that system-level view, with a range of

:39:46.:39:49.

recommendations, right the way from staff in the NHS through to

:39:49.:39:54.

Government. How you can achieve that sort of change. But changing

:39:54.:39:58.

the culture of a huge organisation like the NHS is not something that

:39:58.:40:02.

will happen quickly. Meanwhile today the medical production

:40:02.:40:06.

society found three-quarters of sunnor doctors they surveyed said

:40:06.:40:09.

they did not have enough time to give their patients the care they

:40:09.:40:16.

require. Earlier I went to the Department of Health to speak to

:40:16.:40:20.

Professor Berwick. Can I ask you first of all about the structure of

:40:20.:40:24.

the NHS, huge bureaucratic organisation, over one million

:40:24.:40:27.

employees thousands of managers. From your experience of it, do you

:40:27.:40:32.

think it is the right structure to deliver safe patient care? There is

:40:32.:40:35.

probably no-one right structure, but it is a promising structure to

:40:35.:40:40.

do it T you have central accountability, the ability to

:40:40.:40:45.

deploy resources and enormous possibility for learning. The NHS

:40:45.:40:49.

is big enough anywhere a problem develops somebody else on the

:40:49.:40:57.

system may have solved. It may be a weakness but it is its greatest

:40:57.:41:02.

strength. Overly bureaucratic? There is that in all agencies, and

:41:02.:41:05.

we experiment with deferred authority and oscillating. I think

:41:05.:41:09.

there is a sense that a lot of the important things that need to

:41:09.:41:14.

happen will happen in the shortend, in the hospitals, Trusts and

:41:14.:41:18.

regions, that is a productive direction. If one of your relatives

:41:18.:41:22.

had died from neglect in one of the hospitals in England in the last

:41:22.:41:26.

few years. You might justifiably want to blame someone? The human

:41:26.:41:31.

reaction to the strategy we saw at Mid-Staffordshire or something gone

:41:32.:41:36.

wrong is. It is anger, fear, remorse, looking for someone to

:41:36.:41:40.

blame, that is totally human. You would feel the same. Anything wrong

:41:40.:41:44.

with that. Nothing wrong with it, it just won't work. The way out of

:41:44.:41:49.

the trouble is really through a different approach. Hold on a

:41:49.:41:54.

minute, that wasn't ip tensional we didn't do it on purpose --

:41:54.:41:57.

intentional, we didn't do it on purpose, how can we stop it

:41:57.:42:00.

happening to anyone else again. We say it in a report that the only

:42:00.:42:05.

suitable homage to the people who suffered in mid-faf Fordshire is

:42:05.:42:10.

data, learning and improvement. You never, ever get to safety through

:42:10.:42:14.

anger and blame. You get there through learning, curiosity and

:42:14.:42:18.

commitment. What about the relatives who might want to hold

:42:18.:42:24.

someone accountable? Tremendous empathy for them. I understand how

:42:24.:42:27.

they would be angry, I would be too. The way to respond is to say look,

:42:27.:42:32.

we are going to make this better, we together will come together and

:42:32.:42:37.

we will make this service better and better and better in honour of

:42:37.:42:42.

your injured relative. It is the only way we can do that really

:42:42.:42:46.

respects them. If we choose a different path, the path of anger

:42:46.:42:49.

or recrimination, you don't get there. What will happen is people

:42:50.:42:53.

will hide the data, they will run and hide.

:42:53.:42:58.

Because of the no-blame culture that you want to see in the NHS, is

:42:58.:43:03.

that why you have rejected what Francis recommended, which was this

:43:03.:43:07.

legal requirement for health staff to admit mistakes or report

:43:07.:43:13.

failings? I see it is a balancing act, we may have moved the balance

:43:13.:43:18.

to a different place. We do, for example, have in it a very small

:43:18.:43:23.

call for what would happen infrequently, the prosecution of

:43:23.:43:29.

people who willfully come close. There is respect to a duty or to

:43:29.:43:33.

disclose, that is a tricky business. You really can't require people to

:43:33.:43:40.

talk. It doesn't work. They will hide and become frightened. So we

:43:40.:43:45.

shyed away from a duty of reporting for everyone for everything. There

:43:45.:43:49.

is some strong language there about the absolute requirement that

:43:49.:43:52.

patients be told when something seriously goes wrong and that

:43:52.:43:58.

should be expected as a prove fgsal duty and owned by -- professional

:43:58.:44:04.

duty and owned by managers. Can you see a situation where a prosecution

:44:04.:44:12.

might be inappropriate? Sabotage when there is someone of criminal

:44:12.:44:19.

intent who is stealing mediciness and substituting. Do we need new

:44:19.:44:24.

laepblgslation? I'm not British -- Legislation? I'm not sure but the

:44:24.:44:31.

advisory group felt better reformed in me and some introduction of the

:44:31.:44:37.

statutory requirement would go some way. In mid-staffs the problem was

:44:37.:44:43.

not the absence of some statute, it was a cultural phenomenon where

:44:43.:44:49.

people didn't have the skills to look at data, and a vicious cycle

:44:49.:44:54.

began leading to opaqueness and injury. No new law would have

:44:54.:44:59.

prevended Mid-Staffordshire. In the past you have -- We vented Mid-

:44:59.:45:03.

Staffordshire. You described yourself as romantic about England

:45:03.:45:09.

would you confess that now? It is a nation committed to universality

:45:09.:45:12.

and as a basic human right. You have chosen to do it with tax

:45:12.:45:19.

support and publicly funded. You have done it in a way that is free

:45:19.:45:23.

at the point of service. It is committed to equity. It is an

:45:23.:45:27.

amazing investment. I'm still a constant fan of that endeavour.

:45:27.:45:32.

are still romantic about it? still think it is ra great human

:45:32.:45:37.

endeavour. If look at Mid- Staffordshire for a minute, take a

:45:37.:45:42.

step back, what happened here was something went badly wrong. That

:45:42.:45:46.

could happen anywhere. It went badly wrong. So many other nations

:45:46.:45:48.

and places nothing would have happened, something went badly

:45:48.:45:54.

wrong much you wouldn't have a mechanism here, the country is

:45:54.:45:59.

mobilised journalism, the fo., my point is you can act because you

:45:59.:46:08.

have a -- can take it and execute it. It is a shame it has to be

:46:08.:46:11.

triggered by tragedy but you can act on it and improve things. I

:46:11.:46:21.
:46:21.:46:50.

think that will happen. That's all for tonight. We will be back

:46:50.:46:53.

tomorrow. Until then, have a good tomorrow. Until then, have a good

:46:53.:47:03.
:47:03.:47:30.

evening. . Wednesday starts with rain in

:47:30.:47:34.

Scotland, that will break up into showers during the day. Some cloud

:47:34.:47:38.

building as the day goes on, but the rain is hard to find the one or

:47:38.:47:41.

two showers popping up in Northern Ireland, a scattering of showers

:47:41.:47:45.

for the afternoon in Scotland. Sunnier spells inDean. Inamongst

:47:45.:47:51.

those hef and slow moving, but most will avoid them. As we look to

:47:51.:47:54.

northern England you have cloud, sunny spells, the Midlands too.

:47:54.:47:59.

There will be more cloud compared with today. The far south-east for

:47:59.:48:04.

coastal counties, there may be a shower or thunder storm hopping

:48:04.:48:08.

across the channel. A lower risk they will push inland.

:48:08.:48:13.

The south west of England and for Wales, yes, the odd stray shower,

:48:13.:48:18.

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