06/08/2013 Newsnight


06/08/2013

With Victoria Derbyshire. Why the west is on red alert in Yemen, the reality of the US Drone strikes, the recovery and can the health service promise to do zero harm?


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diplomats have pulled out of Yemen and western visitors are told to

:00:15.:00:18.

leave immediately. Embassies across the Middle East are shut, but can

:00:18.:00:27.

the threat from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula be contained?

:00:27.:00:32.

Americans America's special operations forces are being readied,

:00:32.:00:36.

it looks like escalation. What about the people who can't

:00:36.:00:41.

leave? We follow the Yemeni villagers living and dying with the

:00:41.:00:51.
:00:51.:00:53.

daily reality of American drone strikes.

:00:53.:01:00.

Here doctors and nurses should aim for zero-harm to patients. Or be

:01:00.:01:03.

prosecuted for willful misconduct, but no finger pointing when things

:01:03.:01:09.

go wrong. We will hear from the man who wrote today's NHS report for

:01:09.:01:15.

David Cameron. And it lives! The British economy

:01:15.:01:18.

has started twitching again, but behind the new numbers, is this

:01:19.:01:24.

really what you would want to call a recovery? Is the resurrection for

:01:24.:01:34.
:01:34.:01:36.

real? Is there a risk of driving a stake through its heart.

:01:36.:01:40.

Good evening, the exodus of westerners from Yemen continued

:01:40.:01:44.

today amid on going fears over the terror threat in the country.

:01:44.:01:47.

British diplomatic staff are already on route to the UK. It

:01:48.:01:53.

comes after the New York Times reported that American Security

:01:53.:01:56.

Services intercepted phone conversations between two senior

:01:56.:02:00.

members of Al-Qaeda. Rp presenting, the paper says, the most serious

:02:00.:02:05.

plot since 9/11. Our diplomatic editor is here with

:02:05.:02:09.

more. What can you tell us? I understand they are now looking

:02:09.:02:12.

at sending special operations forces into Yemen. These sorts of

:02:12.:02:17.

people have been in and out of there in recent years as training

:02:17.:02:21.

team members or in liaison roles in relation to some of those drone

:02:21.:02:24.

strikes. But the sort of option that is now being looked at is the

:02:24.:02:28.

sort of option that would give them a strike option against the Al-

:02:28.:02:31.

Qaeda leadership, able to mount the kind of operations we have seen in

:02:32.:02:37.

Iraq and Afghanistan in recent years. What is the threat? It is

:02:37.:02:42.

interesting, there seems to have been a whole tiered bit of

:02:42.:02:46.

intelligence reporting from across the region, tiered levels, if you

:02:46.:02:50.

like, of different types of intelligence coming in, being

:02:50.:02:55.

assessed in different place. We know that the Americans across the

:02:55.:02:58.

region have basically shut up shop with embassies in 19 countries.

:02:58.:03:06.

Right the way from Tripoli over on the west of that map in Libya to

:03:06.:03:15.

Muscat in the east, Sana'a, Kay row, ma -- Cairo, major stations. It

:03:16.:03:19.

comes from chatter, Ramadan at the end, and Muslim countries may want

:03:19.:03:24.

to do actual attacks and protests on American interests. There is the

:03:24.:03:30.

much more specific stuff about Aden and Sana'a, we know from the New

:03:30.:03:34.

York Times report that they intercepted conversations between

:03:34.:03:44.
:03:44.:03:45.

Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda, and Tony Way, the

:03:45.:03:52.

competent atrb and the competent affiliate of Al-Qaeda. It would be

:03:52.:03:56.

range to say you were listening to the phone calls if that was the

:03:56.:03:58.

method you were using. Others say it was electronic communication, a

:03:59.:04:01.

little vague there. There is another level of intelligence

:04:01.:04:08.

reporting down at the ground level in Sana'a, we know for example from

:04:08.:04:11.

the Yemeni Interior Ministry that they have tracked Al-Qaeda

:04:11.:04:15.

militants coming into Sana'a ready to mount attacks on western

:04:15.:04:21.

interests there. Also things hotting up in the country with a

:04:21.:04:25.

further drone strike north of the apple in the Marib province, said

:04:25.:04:33.

to have killed four people, including two on the Yemeni 25 most

:04:33.:04:37.

wanted list. Also there has been US manned aircraft over the country.

:04:37.:04:43.

Is the UK's assessment of the risk the same as the US? It seems less

:04:43.:04:47.

stark. People in Whitehall argue that the Americans may be taking no

:04:47.:04:51.

chances because of what happened in September when they lost an

:04:51.:04:55.

ambassador. The UK's view is not to get involved with the drone strikes

:04:55.:04:58.

and with the direct action-type forces.

:04:59.:05:05.

Let as talk now to Conservative MP, Rory Stewart, who recently returned

:05:05.:05:11.

from Yemen. And dword Gordon director of planning during the

:05:11.:05:18.

George W Bush era and now a risk consultant. David Gordon, let me

:05:18.:05:23.

ask you for your reaction to the fact that American Special Forces

:05:23.:05:28.

are readying for deployment? think here that what the Americans

:05:28.:05:36.

are getting ready for is the possibility of a new type of Al-

:05:36.:05:44.

Qaeda attack, based more on what happened in Benghazi than on the

:05:44.:05:49.

traditional purely terrorist attack that you have an instantaneous

:05:49.:05:53.

event, it has happened, something very, very big blows up. In

:05:53.:05:59.

Benghazi as we saw there was this massing of extremists and militants

:05:59.:06:05.

attacking a number of targets. I think that's what Special Forces

:06:05.:06:10.

are being readied to protect and go directed against. Of course we

:06:10.:06:16.

don't really know exactly what the threat is here? Rory Stewart, is it

:06:16.:06:20.

a good idea? Is it a good idea to withdraw British diplomats. Is it a

:06:20.:06:23.

good idea to get the special fores ready for deployment? I think we

:06:23.:06:27.

need to understand what this threat is. In that I really agree with

:06:27.:06:30.

David, we are really moving in the dark here. Unless we actually know

:06:30.:06:34.

what the threat is it is very difficult to understand. It is very

:06:34.:06:37.

unusual to have a situation where you would remove all your British

:06:37.:06:42.

diplomats out of a country. Normally in somewhere like Iraq and

:06:42.:06:46.

Afghanistan where there are very severe threats or even Yemen where

:06:46.:06:51.

we have had bad threats for a few years, you look down the embassy

:06:51.:06:54.

and trust the embassy defences to keep people out. I suspect there

:06:54.:06:56.

must be something very strange going on here in the nature of the

:06:56.:07:02.

threat. Meaning what?It must be something where they must guess and

:07:02.:07:06.

maybe David's right the Benghazi analogy is the right one, that the

:07:06.:07:09.

traditional defences of the embassy would not be enough to keep out the

:07:09.:07:14.

threat. Mr Gordon, are you surprised that US intelligence

:07:14.:07:18.

released such specific details about intercepting the

:07:18.:07:22.

communications between these two senior Al-Qaeda leaders? Well, I

:07:22.:07:29.

think part of the intent here was prevention, to say we know what you

:07:29.:07:34.

are up to, you better not do this. It is a bit unusual, but I think

:07:34.:07:44.
:07:44.:07:47.

that this is part of this is for whatever reason is there is a

:07:47.:07:52.

chance that the terrorists know we know they are about to do something

:07:52.:07:56.

they may not do it. Can I also say we need to distinguish the

:07:56.:08:01.

terrorist threats from what has been happening in Yemen, that has

:08:01.:08:06.

been much more positive in the last two years than anyone expected. It

:08:06.:08:09.

is surprising now we find ourselves looking at Yemen in this way. If

:08:09.:08:13.

you look at all the negotiation happening, people predicted civil

:08:13.:08:17.

war, they predicted chaos, actually things have been much better

:08:17.:08:22.

recently. Do you really think so? The problem of Yemen and Al-Qaeda

:08:22.:08:25.

operatives there has been around for a number of years, hasn't it?

:08:25.:08:30.

It has, but if you go back a year or 18 months, Al-Qaeda were holding

:08:30.:08:35.

territory in Yemen. That was gotten rid of, they no longer hold the

:08:36.:08:38.

territory. There was going to be huge problems between seperatists

:08:38.:08:42.

in the south and groups in the north, it didn't really materialise.

:08:42.:08:46.

Yemen has been more peaceful than people feared. Is that how it has

:08:46.:08:54.

been seen in Washington? I think Yemen is still seen as being the

:08:54.:08:58.

territory for a very capable Al- Qaeda group. But I think Rory is

:08:58.:09:02.

right that in terms of how people were thinking about Yemen a year or

:09:02.:09:07.

two ago, it was quite a bit more negative than what we have seen.

:09:07.:09:14.

Look, I think what we may be seeing here is Al-Qaeda leadership in

:09:14.:09:19.

Afghanistan and Pakistan urging the Al-Qaeda affiliates in the Middle

:09:19.:09:26.

East, in North Africa, in the Levant, to do something against a

:09:26.:09:31.

western target. Because in effect the centre piece of the Al-Qaeda

:09:31.:09:34.

resurgence in this part of the world has been in Syria. What they

:09:34.:09:41.

have really been doing here is fighting against Assad and

:09:41.:09:47.

Hezbollah. I think what Al-Zawahiri is trying to say here is, yes it is

:09:47.:09:52.

OK to become domestically focused on the near enemy, but don't lose

:09:52.:09:56.

sight of the ultimate target of Al- Qaeda and that is the west and we

:09:56.:10:03.

need to do something to show that we are still a form mid-able anti-

:10:03.:10:07.

western organisation. -- Formidable anti-western

:10:07.:10:10.

organisation. How should the west deal with that? We need to deal

:10:10.:10:14.

cautiously. What I mean by this is we mustn't upset a lot of the

:10:14.:10:17.

progress that has been made in Yemen. In the long run the way to

:10:17.:10:21.

deal with a terrorist threat in Yemen is to get stability in that

:10:21.:10:24.

country. That stability is painfully getting there. It has

:10:24.:10:27.

been getting there because we managed to hold Russia and China

:10:27.:10:32.

and the United States and France and Britain together with the whole

:10:32.:10:35.

gulf operation council. Very unusual to have all these countries

:10:35.:10:40.

co-operating. What we want to avoid is an anti-terrorist strategy that

:10:40.:10:44.

begins to disrupt the stability that is beginning to emerge. Let's

:10:44.:10:47.

hope that whatever this is we are going to get back to diplomatic

:10:47.:10:54.

operations, so we will be able to reopen these embassies. No more

:10:54.:10:59.

drones? Drone strikes will continue in Yemen. Would you like them to

:10:59.:11:05.

stop? Sorry?Would you like them to stop? Am I in favour of drone

:11:05.:11:10.

strikes? I'm not, for different reasons I'm not a great fan of

:11:10.:11:15.

drone strikes, I think we can expect them to continue in Yemen

:11:15.:11:19.

for the foreseeable future. It is clear the US thinks Yemen is

:11:20.:11:23.

the new frontline in the war with Al-Qaeda, which is why they have

:11:23.:11:28.

been sending as many drones there as they have to Pakistan and

:11:28.:11:31.

Afghanistan. Strikes by drone aircraft have wiped out a whole

:11:31.:11:36.

generation of Al-Qaeda's leadership. But is the use of them creating as

:11:36.:11:42.

many enemies as they are killing? We have been to Zinjibar in

:11:42.:11:50.

southern Yemen. The report contains some disturbing images.

:11:50.:11:55.

We're heading into Zinjibar in southern Yemen. For years Al-Qaeda

:11:55.:12:00.

in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, have planned attacks from this part

:12:00.:12:05.

of the country. There have been Yemeni army operations on the

:12:05.:12:10.

ground, American drone strikes from the air, and repeated Al-Qaeda

:12:10.:12:16.

counter strikes. This is a town under siege. On the streets we can

:12:16.:12:22.

find little public support for Al- Qaeda. But plenty of anger over the

:12:22.:12:32.
:12:32.:12:44.

drones that target AQAP. What do you blame for the retruction of

:12:44.:12:54.
:12:54.:13:16.

Winning the support of people like this is crucial in America's fight

:13:16.:13:20.

against extremism. The people here fear US drones as much as they fear

:13:20.:13:30.
:13:30.:13:36.

Mohhamed Bagash and his two children were outside a health

:13:36.:13:40.

clinic when it was hit by an American strike. They ran to a

:13:40.:13:50.
:13:50.:14:09.

school and hid in the basement, He carried his children out, his

:14:09.:14:19.
:14:19.:14:32.

son survived but his eight-year-old daughter bled to death. 15

:14:32.:14:37.

eyewitnesses reported seeing a drone hovering in the air, and two

:14:37.:14:47.
:14:47.:14:52.

President Obama has said that drone strikes kill far fewer civilians

:14:52.:14:58.

than conventional bombing or ground operations. In the capital, Sana'a,

:14:58.:15:05.

I have come to meet one of the most pro--American voices in Yemen.

:15:05.:15:09.

Farea Al-Muslimi runs a pro- democracy organisation. He thinks

:15:09.:15:19.
:15:19.:15:23.

the drone war is playing right into Al-Qaeda's hands.

:15:23.:15:27.

I think the drones have been one of the effective tools for Al-Qaeda in

:15:27.:15:31.

Yemen. A big part of power for Al- Qaeda at the moment is to convince

:15:31.:15:36.

Yemenis that they are in a war with Yemen and they are attacking the

:15:36.:15:40.

sovereignty. One of the biggest mistakes he says is the way that

:15:40.:15:44.

the US deals with civilian casualties. You are killing

:15:44.:15:49.

civilians for no need and you are not even going to say sorry or

:15:49.:15:57.

admit it or issue apology or pay compensation. Last September Ahmed

:15:57.:16:03.

was working in the fields outside the town, his father, mother and

:16:03.:16:07.

sister had gone to visit the local health clinic. It was 3.00pm when

:16:07.:16:17.
:16:17.:16:42.

he heard a buzzing noise in the sky, He jumped on his motorbike to see

:16:42.:16:46.

what had happened, when he got there he found that two missiles

:16:46.:16:56.
:16:56.:17:24.

This footage was given to us by a local journalist. It is too

:17:24.:17:28.

gruesome to show in full. The truck was packed with passengers coming

:17:28.:17:33.

back from the market. The target was probably a local Al-Qaeda

:17:33.:17:38.

leader, seen travelling on the same stretch of road. He got away, but

:17:38.:17:48.
:17:48.:18:02.

13 people were incinerated. The few people that survived were taken to

:18:02.:18:05.

the local clinic, they report seeing at least one drone and two

:18:05.:18:15.
:18:15.:18:15.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 65 seconds

:18:15.:19:21.

In an off the record quote, given to a US newspaper, US officials did

:19:21.:19:24.

concede it was an American strike. But there has been no American

:19:24.:19:29.

acknowledgement or apology to the families of the 13 victims in Yemen.

:19:29.:19:39.
:19:39.:19:53.

What does your community think, who do they blame for this? What would

:19:53.:20:03.
:20:03.:20:08.

you say to the people who ordered this strike? The Yemeni Government

:20:08.:20:12.

has promised an investigation into the attack. But no-one we spoke to

:20:12.:20:18.

has seen any evidence of an inquiry. One group that does claim to offer

:20:18.:20:23.

justice and redress is Al-Qaeda. We have heard many reports of Al-

:20:23.:20:27.

Qaeda appearing after air strikes offering compensation and

:20:28.:20:32.

increasing recruitment. Al-Qaeda have stepped in to help rebuild

:20:32.:20:36.

homes, they provide funeral costs and offer financial support to the

:20:36.:20:39.

families of those killed and injured. They also pressure the

:20:39.:20:43.

relatives of those killed to join up to gain revenge. It is clear

:20:43.:20:48.

that even when they lose active members, Al-Qaeda use these strikes

:20:48.:20:53.

as an opportunity to recruit many more.

:20:53.:20:57.

President Obama has said there is little chance of capturing

:20:57.:21:02.

militants, Yemen is too weak. The state's reach too limited. He says

:21:02.:21:05.

sometimes the only option is to kill.

:21:06.:21:11.

But here many argue suspects can be caught, and they accuse the United

:21:11.:21:18.

States of extra judicial execution. Anwar al-Awlaki was chief

:21:18.:21:24.

propagandaist for AQAP, a Yemeni- American, he called for attacks on

:21:24.:21:31.

American targets. He had close ties to the underwear bomber who tried

:21:31.:21:39.

to explode a bomb in an aeroplane over Detroit in 2009. I'm on the

:21:39.:21:45.

way to meet Mr Al-Awlaki's father. He says he was negotiating a deal

:21:45.:21:50.

that would have seen his son stand trial, instead his son was killed

:21:50.:21:55.

by an air strike. But your son was preaching hate and himself had

:21:56.:22:01.

praised attacks on America? Even if he made some of those sermons that

:22:01.:22:05.

could be classified as hate sermons, I don't think it is right for the

:22:05.:22:09.

United States to go and kill him. But he is accused of being involved

:22:09.:22:14.

in the airliner plot? Legally these are only allegations. They have not

:22:14.:22:22.

been proven in a court of law. I don't know that in any court that

:22:22.:22:25.

those allegations were proven against my son. If there are any

:22:25.:22:30.

allegations against my son the United States Government could have

:22:30.:22:35.

done something else going to court, but they didn't do that, they went

:22:35.:22:40.

ahead and killed him. Mr Al-Awlaki said the ideology that consumed his

:22:40.:22:47.

son is now taking many more. There were maybe 300 people who were in

:22:47.:22:55.

Al-Qaeda. Now we are talking about thousands of people, all over Yemen.

:22:55.:23:00.

We asked an interview with the US Ambassador in Yemen, our request

:23:00.:23:04.

was declined. The Yemeni Foreign Minister did agree to an interview.

:23:04.:23:08.

We began by asking whether America's targeting of Yemenis in

:23:08.:23:18.
:23:18.:23:19.

Yemen a threat to the country's sovereignty. I think sovereignty is

:23:19.:23:23.

in danger if it is done without the approval of the Government. If it

:23:23.:23:28.

is done with the approval of the Government and for the interests of

:23:28.:23:31.

the Yemeni people and their fight against terrorism, I don't think

:23:31.:23:34.

this applies. But it is making people angry?

:23:34.:23:39.

know, it make everybody angry to see drones coming and hitting

:23:39.:23:46.

targets in Yemen. And killing civilians? This is accidental, they

:23:46.:23:52.

are not targeting. Innocent people get killed, unfortunately. Every

:23:52.:23:56.

Yemeni we have spoken to said target strikes acted as a useful

:23:56.:24:00.

recruitment tool for them? I have heard this argument, there might be

:24:00.:24:06.

some truth in it. But I think the fact is that if your targets are

:24:07.:24:11.

Al-Qaeda leaders and if they are in dangering the security of your

:24:11.:24:17.

country, there is no alternative. The future of this conflict will

:24:17.:24:21.

depend on whether America can convince Yemenis that it is on

:24:21.:24:25.

their side. Every night in the back streets,

:24:25.:24:30.

young kids get together for a game of football. But growing up in

:24:30.:24:39.

Yemen is hard. Their prospects are bleak. Corruption is endemic,

:24:40.:24:49.
:24:50.:24:50.

Yemenis are in poverty. It will take more than this to get rid of

:24:50.:24:54.

Al-Qaeda. The US provides hundreds of thousands of dollars in aid to

:24:54.:25:00.

Yemen. But the noise from targeted strikes is drowning out other

:25:00.:25:03.

progress. And whilst America continues to decimate Al-Qaeda from

:25:03.:25:10.

the sky, opposition in the streets is growing. At ground level winning

:25:10.:25:17.

in Yemen is harder than it look. You can see more of that reporting

:25:17.:25:24.

from Yemen on Our World on the news channel this weekend.

:25:24.:25:28.

For avid economy watchers in this country there have been several

:25:28.:25:33.

sightings of a rare breed in the last few days, good news and quite

:25:33.:25:37.

a lot of it. Sales up, house prices up, even manufacturing up, for some

:25:37.:25:41.

it is enough to declare bomb times and break open the champagne. With

:25:41.:25:45.

most people still worse off than before the crash, so this recovery

:25:45.:25:49.

be like the British summer, unexpected, much celebrated and

:25:49.:25:52.

short lived. We have been finding out.

:25:52.:25:59.

The sun is out, the bars are open. The economy, like this cocktail, is

:25:59.:26:07.

exhibiting qualities of fire on top of ice. Growth amid Austerry, and

:26:07.:26:16.

in ever-larger dollop, led -- what matters is whether economic policy

:26:16.:26:21.

can stain this growth, and that depends on what is causing it.

:26:21.:26:26.

Today official figures showed a marked upturn in manufacturing, it

:26:26.:26:31.

grew by 1.9% in May and June. There has been a rise in the all-

:26:31.:26:34.

important service sector, that makes up two thirds of the economy.

:26:34.:26:40.

It is now growing faster than at any time through 2006. That has got

:26:40.:26:44.

economists rapidly remixing their GDP predictions. At the moment the

:26:44.:26:48.

good news just keeps on coming, it looks like maybe some sort of

:26:48.:26:52.

momentum is building in the economy. Some people have talked about the

:26:52.:26:55.

economy reaching escape velocity. Where the recovery becomes self-

:26:55.:27:01.

Steyning. I think that is maybe a bit over -- self sustaining, I

:27:01.:27:05.

think that is maybe a bit over the stop. Things are on a firmer

:27:05.:27:10.

footing than a few months ago. you dig into the details, there the

:27:10.:27:15.

problems start? The signs are all the bonhomie is being driven by

:27:15.:27:21.

lower saving and easier borrowing. If that is true and inflation takes

:27:22.:27:25.

off then the Governor of the Bank of England, Jay Carney, will be

:27:25.:27:29.

forced, or come under -- Mark Carney, will be forced to or come

:27:29.:27:32.

under pressure to raise interest rates. That is something he wishes

:27:32.:27:39.

to put off for as long as possible. In the first quarter we saw the

:27:39.:27:44.

savings ratio lower than for a long time. That poses dangers for the

:27:44.:27:48.

medium-to-long-term, first of all it may not be sustainable, and as a

:27:48.:27:55.

country we need to save more not less. Mark Carney gets the first

:27:55.:28:01.

taste of the limelight, the word is he will give a clear signal to keep

:28:02.:28:05.

interest rates low for a period. Something that did work in the US.

:28:06.:28:10.

If he fixes the rate too long and inflation eats up people's wages

:28:10.:28:14.

that could choke off the recovery, again. I think he will press ahead

:28:14.:28:18.

tomorrow with commit to go keep interest rates low for a long time

:28:18.:28:21.

until for example unemployment comes down to a certain rate. Some

:28:21.:28:27.

people think he doesn't need to do that any more, but the economy is

:28:28.:28:31.

picking up momentum. I think now is the time to keep interest rates low

:28:31.:28:36.

so people don't expect a rise and that snuffs out the recovery

:28:36.:28:42.

finally getting going. The bank also has to use its muscle to

:28:42.:28:48.

squash any new housing bubble. That has never been done before. There

:28:48.:28:52.

is no free lunch here. It is clearly a risk that if the governor

:28:52.:28:57.

guarantees interest rates will stay at zero for a very long time that

:28:57.:29:02.

does stoke up bubbles and risks eroding the credibility of monetary

:29:02.:29:04.

policy. It is a risk, but the risk of the other way that interest

:29:04.:29:10.

rates shoot up and choke off the recovery is probably going to be

:29:10.:29:14.

the determining factor here. Even if we do achieve lift-off, this

:29:14.:29:20.

chart shows how far we have to go. It logs the output of all the UK's

:29:20.:29:24.

productive industries, and shows we are nowhere near output at the peak.

:29:24.:29:27.

It is the rate of recovery, however temporary, that is politically

:29:27.:29:32.

important. For the past three years the political climate has been

:29:32.:29:38.

decidedly non-but colic, with the politicians -- non-bucolic,

:29:38.:29:42.

politicians aware that the buzz in London is not created elsewhere.

:29:42.:29:45.

Now economic growth is rising and spreading, you are beginning to

:29:45.:29:51.

hear two words you never thought you might in the same sentence,

:29:51.:29:57.

that is "autumn" and "election". Yes it is uneven and patchy growth,

:29:57.:30:00.

and if wages don't start to rise yes it will be hard to sustain. But

:30:00.:30:06.

it is starting to alter the political arithmetic.

:30:06.:30:11.

We talk to Allister Heath, the editor of City AM, and Kate Barker

:30:11.:30:15.

an economist and former member of the Monetary Policy Committee. How

:30:15.:30:19.

real is this, how tangible this recovery? The data we have had over

:30:19.:30:22.

the past couple of months has really been a lot stronger. It

:30:22.:30:26.

feels as though both business and consumers are starting to get some

:30:26.:30:30.

confidence back. That has been very badly lacking in the economy. I

:30:30.:30:33.

think this is good news. We have to be careful, we are coming are from

:30:33.:30:37.

a very long period of a very long depression. Output is still more

:30:37.:30:44.

than 3% lower than it was in 2008. It is a long way from a normal

:30:44.:30:48.

economy. In the piece we had know we talked about low savings rates

:30:48.:30:52.

and impaired banking sector. There is a long way to go before we hit

:30:52.:30:56.

something that feels normal. Despite the figures people are

:30:56.:30:59.

really struggling?. People are still getting poorer and wages are

:30:59.:31:03.

not going up as much as inflation. People are substantially poorer

:31:03.:31:08.

than a few years ago. I'm worried about this growth. It is the wrong

:31:08.:31:13.

kind of growth. It is growth fuelled once again by excessive

:31:13.:31:15.

consumer spending rather than increasing the production for the

:31:15.:31:19.

economy. We are not producing more or exporting more, we are spending

:31:19.:31:22.

more. What are we using to spend, we haven't got the wages or cash?

:31:22.:31:26.

No, so people are dipping into their savings and also the

:31:26.:31:31.

Government is fuelling increased borrowing and trying to stimulate

:31:31.:31:34.

the mortgage market is subsidising credit, is subsidising mortgages.

:31:34.:31:37.

That is quite a dangerous route, feel we have not really learned the

:31:37.:31:41.

lessons of the past. The economy is not being rebalanced. Yes it has

:31:41.:31:45.

grown, yes the news is good, and yes probably GDP will go up by much

:31:45.:31:50.

more than anybody thought this year. I don't really think it is

:31:50.:31:53.

sustainable in terms it is not high-quality growth or the growth

:31:53.:31:58.

we need to get out of the bubble we have seen for the last few years.

:31:58.:32:02.

The Governor of the Bank of England is expected to know tomorrow what

:32:02.:32:08.

the base rate will be. For a considerable period of time this

:32:08.:32:12.

called "forward guidance"? I don't know about this being the right

:32:12.:32:16.

sort of recovery. I don't think it is something that is started with

:32:16.:32:19.

consumer spending, you have to start somewhere. That will bring

:32:19.:32:24.

the production along with it. We won't produce if there is no demand,

:32:24.:32:28.

it is difficult to export at the moment. We have to look to the

:32:28.:32:33.

domestic consumer to get that back. What is the governor doing? We

:32:33.:32:37.

start to get people talking about interest rates going up. What he

:32:37.:32:40.

has to do tomorrow is to try to tell with us what are the

:32:40.:32:43.

circumstances in which the bank is going to start to put interest

:32:43.:32:47.

rates up, to try to stop people speculating month by month that is

:32:47.:32:50.

what is going to happen. He has quite a difficult job. I have been

:32:50.:32:54.

on the committee. The other eight members are pretty feisty and have

:32:54.:32:59.

quite different views. He isn't just going to give his views but

:32:59.:33:05.

the views of the committee. I think he will try to say to the public

:33:05.:33:09.

that they will keep bank rates low for some time, until unemployment

:33:09.:33:14.

is falling and wages picking up. If we don't see wages pick up we are

:33:14.:33:19.

not on our way back to recovery. What if he and the rest of the

:33:19.:33:22.

committee decide they need to pick up the base rate because inflation

:33:22.:33:26.

starts to shoot up and people have taken out mortgage, loans and so on

:33:26.:33:29.

and so forth, based on the fact that the base rate will stay low

:33:29.:33:33.

for a considerable period of time. It is a dangerous promise to be

:33:33.:33:36.

waiting at the moment. With the economy starting to grow we will

:33:36.:33:39.

start seeing inflationary pressures. What about the principle first of

:33:39.:33:44.

all? The principle of trying to say, look, I'm not going to put up rates

:33:44.:33:47.

unless something happens, unemployment falls or the economy

:33:47.:33:51.

starts to grow faster. That is fine. The problem is, at a time like now

:33:51.:33:56.

it is hard to predict anything like this. He's going to promise the

:33:56.:33:59.

wrong thing. I don't think now is the time for extended period of low

:33:59.:34:03.

interest rates. Quite the contrary. 0.5 interest rates in this country,

:34:03.:34:07.

a crisis level of interest rates, an emergency level of interest

:34:07.:34:10.

rates. We are no longer in the emergency situation. The economy is

:34:10.:34:13.

growing. You have retail sales going up, manufacturing, you have

:34:13.:34:16.

all the good figures coming out of the economy and we shouldn't be

:34:16.:34:21.

talking about keeping rates low for another six months. You would put

:34:21.:34:25.

the base rate up by how much? quarter or half a point. For what

:34:25.:34:30.

purpose? First to send a symbolic signal to show the economy is

:34:30.:34:35.

recovering and the bank is more confident and rates should go up.

:34:35.:34:40.

It is a pro-growth move. To start warning people rates will go up

:34:40.:34:42.

more as the economy continues to grow and they need to get their

:34:42.:34:47.

finances in order, and they need to reduce borrowing and rates starting

:34:47.:34:51.

to up properly. Do we need that warning? I disagree with that.

:34:51.:34:56.

Firstly, I think if we started to put rates up a little bit, there is

:34:56.:35:02.

a big risk that markets would get carried away push the yield up, it

:35:02.:35:06.

will affect money for the long-term for companies. I don't agree with

:35:06.:35:09.

the proposition that once rate go up they have to go up a long way.

:35:09.:35:13.

In terms of bank rate we know, of course, that other rate, the rates

:35:13.:35:19.

people are borrowing at are well above 0.5 indeed. It has been very

:35:19.:35:23.

difficult to get rates as low as we would have liked. I don't think

:35:23.:35:28.

they need to go up a long way in the next few years. I wouldn't want

:35:28.:35:31.

to start warning people of thated today.

:35:31.:35:34.

Patient safety should be the English NHS's top priority. That

:35:34.:35:41.

was the message today from no less than a former healthcare adviser to

:35:41.:35:45.

Barack Obama. In the wake of needless suffering in some of our

:35:45.:35:49.

hospital, the Government asked Professor Don Berwick to assess

:35:49.:35:55.

what had gone wrong. His review spoke of a zero-harm culture, tried

:35:55.:35:59.

in Scotland, and a new criminal offence of willful misconduct he

:35:59.:36:04.

doesn't seem the need to prosecute health workers who fail to report

:36:04.:36:14.
:36:14.:36:40.

mistakes. He doesn't also want In the two-and-a-half thousand

:36:40.:36:44.

years since the hippocratic oath was written, healthcare has changed

:36:44.:36:49.

immeasurably. But the tenet of the oath remain the same. And yet, in

:36:49.:36:52.

the 21st century, in spite of all the developments that should have

:36:52.:36:57.

made looking after patients safer, many more than expected still die

:36:57.:37:04.

under NHS care. Today one of the world's leading experts on patient

:37:04.:37:09.

safety published his plans to create a culture of called "zero-

:37:09.:37:15.

harm" in the NHS. One of Professor Don Berwick's findings is NHS staff

:37:15.:37:20.

are not to blame. He says in the vast majority of cases it is the

:37:20.:37:24.

systems, procedure, conditions, the environment and constraints they

:37:24.:37:30.

face that lead to patient safety problems.

:37:30.:37:33.

His recommendations include that staffing numbers should be adequate

:37:33.:37:38.

and decided locally. He did not recommend minimum staffing levels.

:37:38.:37:42.

Criminal sanctions should apply to reckless and willful neglect or

:37:42.:37:47.

mistreatment of patients. But that unintended errors must not be

:37:47.:37:51.

criminalised. Staff should speak up when things go wrong. But there

:37:51.:37:56.

should be no blame culture. More simple regulation with an

:37:56.:38:01.

independent review by the end of 2017.

:38:01.:38:04.

While patient and nursing groups welcome the report, they say

:38:04.:38:08.

opportunities have been missed. doesn't go far enough. We know from

:38:08.:38:13.

evidence, from countries like Australia, and from the United

:38:13.:38:18.

States, California by way of example, staffing level are decreed

:38:18.:38:21.

in law. Organisation are not permitted to go below the minimum.

:38:21.:38:26.

Where we have had problems in some parts of the NHS, it has often been

:38:26.:38:31.

the case that you had far too few people on frontline doing the job.

:38:31.:38:35.

We believe at some stage by law minimum staffing levels would be

:38:35.:38:42.

set. We think that is in everyone's interest. My charity here is on a

:38:42.:38:45.

daily basis are hearing horrendous stories about what has gone wrong

:38:45.:38:51.

in the NHS. That hasn't gone away. This report might be a small step

:38:51.:38:55.

in getting the patient safety, culture and communication needs

:38:55.:39:04.

that we have. It can only work to complement the report about Mid-

:39:04.:39:07.

Staffordshire. That report made 290 recommendations which is when

:39:07.:39:14.

patient safety really came to the fore. In the cake of that inquiry,

:39:14.:39:19.

England's Medical Director, Sir Bruce Keogh, investigated 14 NHS

:39:19.:39:23.

Trusts in England, 11 have been placed in special measures. While

:39:23.:39:30.

those reports looked at specific trusts, this review is welcomed by

:39:30.:39:35.

some as encouraging culture change across the NHS. Those serious

:39:35.:39:38.

incidents of disastrous care are wrong, thankfully. Never the less

:39:38.:39:41.

the whole system could do a lot better to focus more on patient

:39:42.:39:46.

safety. This report was taking that system-level view, with a range of

:39:46.:39:49.

recommendations, right the way from staff in the NHS through to

:39:49.:39:54.

Government. How you can achieve that sort of change. But changing

:39:54.:39:58.

the culture of a huge organisation like the NHS is not something that

:39:58.:40:02.

will happen quickly. Meanwhile today the medical production

:40:02.:40:06.

society found three-quarters of sunnor doctors they surveyed said

:40:06.:40:09.

they did not have enough time to give their patients the care they

:40:09.:40:16.

require. Earlier I went to the Department of Health to speak to

:40:16.:40:20.

Professor Berwick. Can I ask you first of all about the structure of

:40:20.:40:24.

the NHS, huge bureaucratic organisation, over one million

:40:24.:40:27.

employees thousands of managers. From your experience of it, do you

:40:27.:40:32.

think it is the right structure to deliver safe patient care? There is

:40:32.:40:35.

probably no-one right structure, but it is a promising structure to

:40:35.:40:40.

do it T you have central accountability, the ability to

:40:40.:40:45.

deploy resources and enormous possibility for learning. The NHS

:40:45.:40:49.

is big enough anywhere a problem develops somebody else on the

:40:49.:40:57.

system may have solved. It may be a weakness but it is its greatest

:40:57.:41:02.

strength. Overly bureaucratic? There is that in all agencies, and

:41:02.:41:05.

we experiment with deferred authority and oscillating. I think

:41:05.:41:09.

there is a sense that a lot of the important things that need to

:41:09.:41:14.

happen will happen in the shortend, in the hospitals, Trusts and

:41:14.:41:18.

regions, that is a productive direction. If one of your relatives

:41:18.:41:22.

had died from neglect in one of the hospitals in England in the last

:41:22.:41:26.

few years. You might justifiably want to blame someone? The human

:41:26.:41:31.

reaction to the strategy we saw at Mid-Staffordshire or something gone

:41:32.:41:36.

wrong is. It is anger, fear, remorse, looking for someone to

:41:36.:41:40.

blame, that is totally human. You would feel the same. Anything wrong

:41:40.:41:44.

with that. Nothing wrong with it, it just won't work. The way out of

:41:44.:41:49.

the trouble is really through a different approach. Hold on a

:41:49.:41:54.

minute, that wasn't ip tensional we didn't do it on purpose --

:41:54.:41:57.

intentional, we didn't do it on purpose, how can we stop it

:41:57.:42:00.

happening to anyone else again. We say it in a report that the only

:42:00.:42:05.

suitable homage to the people who suffered in mid-faf Fordshire is

:42:05.:42:10.

data, learning and improvement. You never, ever get to safety through

:42:10.:42:14.

anger and blame. You get there through learning, curiosity and

:42:14.:42:18.

commitment. What about the relatives who might want to hold

:42:18.:42:24.

someone accountable? Tremendous empathy for them. I understand how

:42:24.:42:27.

they would be angry, I would be too. The way to respond is to say look,

:42:27.:42:32.

we are going to make this better, we together will come together and

:42:32.:42:37.

we will make this service better and better and better in honour of

:42:37.:42:42.

your injured relative. It is the only way we can do that really

:42:42.:42:46.

respects them. If we choose a different path, the path of anger

:42:46.:42:49.

or recrimination, you don't get there. What will happen is people

:42:50.:42:53.

will hide the data, they will run and hide.

:42:53.:42:58.

Because of the no-blame culture that you want to see in the NHS, is

:42:58.:43:03.

that why you have rejected what Francis recommended, which was this

:43:03.:43:07.

legal requirement for health staff to admit mistakes or report

:43:07.:43:13.

failings? I see it is a balancing act, we may have moved the balance

:43:13.:43:18.

to a different place. We do, for example, have in it a very small

:43:18.:43:23.

call for what would happen infrequently, the prosecution of

:43:23.:43:29.

people who willfully come close. There is respect to a duty or to

:43:29.:43:33.

disclose, that is a tricky business. You really can't require people to

:43:33.:43:40.

talk. It doesn't work. They will hide and become frightened. So we

:43:40.:43:45.

shyed away from a duty of reporting for everyone for everything. There

:43:45.:43:49.

is some strong language there about the absolute requirement that

:43:49.:43:52.

patients be told when something seriously goes wrong and that

:43:52.:43:58.

should be expected as a prove fgsal duty and owned by -- professional

:43:58.:44:04.

duty and owned by managers. Can you see a situation where a prosecution

:44:04.:44:12.

might be inappropriate? Sabotage when there is someone of criminal

:44:12.:44:19.

intent who is stealing mediciness and substituting. Do we need new

:44:19.:44:24.

laepblgslation? I'm not British -- Legislation? I'm not sure but the

:44:24.:44:31.

advisory group felt better reformed in me and some introduction of the

:44:31.:44:37.

statutory requirement would go some way. In mid-staffs the problem was

:44:37.:44:43.

not the absence of some statute, it was a cultural phenomenon where

:44:43.:44:49.

people didn't have the skills to look at data, and a vicious cycle

:44:49.:44:54.

began leading to opaqueness and injury. No new law would have

:44:54.:44:59.

prevended Mid-Staffordshire. In the past you have -- We vented Mid-

:44:59.:45:03.

Staffordshire. You described yourself as romantic about England

:45:03.:45:09.

would you confess that now? It is a nation committed to universality

:45:09.:45:12.

and as a basic human right. You have chosen to do it with tax

:45:12.:45:19.

support and publicly funded. You have done it in a way that is free

:45:19.:45:23.

at the point of service. It is committed to equity. It is an

:45:23.:45:27.

amazing investment. I'm still a constant fan of that endeavour.

:45:27.:45:32.

are still romantic about it? still think it is ra great human

:45:32.:45:37.

endeavour. If look at Mid- Staffordshire for a minute, take a

:45:37.:45:42.

step back, what happened here was something went badly wrong. That

:45:42.:45:46.

could happen anywhere. It went badly wrong. So many other nations

:45:46.:45:48.

and places nothing would have happened, something went badly

:45:48.:45:54.

wrong much you wouldn't have a mechanism here, the country is

:45:54.:45:59.

mobilised journalism, the fo., my point is you can act because you

:45:59.:46:08.

have a -- can take it and execute it. It is a shame it has to be

:46:08.:46:11.

triggered by tragedy but you can act on it and improve things. I

:46:11.:46:21.
:46:21.:46:50.

think that will happen. That's all for tonight. We will be back

:46:50.:46:53.

tomorrow. Until then, have a good tomorrow. Until then, have a good

:46:53.:47:03.
:47:03.:47:30.

evening. . Wednesday starts with rain in

:47:30.:47:34.

Scotland, that will break up into showers during the day. Some cloud

:47:34.:47:38.

building as the day goes on, but the rain is hard to find the one or

:47:38.:47:41.

two showers popping up in Northern Ireland, a scattering of showers

:47:41.:47:45.

for the afternoon in Scotland. Sunnier spells inDean. Inamongst

:47:45.:47:51.

those hef and slow moving, but most will avoid them. As we look to

:47:51.:47:54.

northern England you have cloud, sunny spells, the Midlands too.

:47:54.:47:59.

There will be more cloud compared with today. The far south-east for

:47:59.:48:04.

coastal counties, there may be a shower or thunder storm hopping

:48:04.:48:08.

across the channel. A lower risk they will push inland.

:48:08.:48:13.

The south west of England and for Wales, yes, the odd stray shower,

:48:13.:48:18.

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