Browse content similar to 24/09/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Vote for us and get cheaper electricity. The Labour leader has | :00:09. | :00:16. | |
laid out the offer he will make they next election. | :00:16. | :00:19. | |
His fans all seemed to like the idea of a big price freeze, but can | :00:19. | :00:24. | |
Governments do that sort of thing any longer? And do we really want | :00:24. | :00:28. | |
to end up shivering in the dark if it all goes wrong. | :00:28. | :00:37. | |
If Shadow Business Secretary ant explain how it will work he will | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
lag your pipes for you. The cream of science will tell us | :00:40. | :00:44. | |
what we know and don't know about global warming, we will make sense | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
of their findings with the man who wrote the book on climate change | :00:47. | :00:54. | |
economics, Lord Stern. And enter the love-hunter, this man's job is | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
to find brides for the wealthy in a country where there is a shortage | :00:59. | :01:08. | |
of young women. The annual Labour Party Conference | :01:08. | :01:12. | |
wraps up tomorrow. Ed Miliband, who hopes to be taking on the Tennessee | :01:12. | :01:18. | |
of Downing Street in a -- tenancy of Downing Street in a year-and-a- | :01:18. | :01:21. | |
half or so has made promise of what he will do if he gets there. One of | :01:21. | :01:27. | |
those was he will freeze the cost of energy for two years if he gets | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
the job, even though many of his party think he's not up to it. He | :01:31. | :01:38. | |
attempted some self-deprication, if you can do that with thousands | :01:38. | :01:41. | |
watching you as you go about the stage. Be warned, there is, as you | :01:41. | :01:45. | |
would expect at such a glamorous occasion flash photography. | :01:45. | :01:51. | |
This afternoon we learned that the next general election will see a | :01:52. | :01:56. | |
real choice about the cost of living, all right, but today the | :01:56. | :01:59. | |
Labour leader gave us very different solutions. | :01:59. | :02:10. | |
He started humble. It was local election day, Ella rode past me on | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
her bike, she fell off. I election day, Ella rode past me on | :02:12. | :02:20. | |
helped...it is not funny...I helped her up and afterwards she called me | :02:20. | :02:26. | |
something I had never been called before ...she said I was, an | :02:26. | :02:32. | |
"action hero"! Why are you laughing? That was. Just a joke, it | :02:32. | :02:38. | |
was one of his themes, this speech showed that a Prime Minister Ed | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
Miliband would be very acty. Are you satisfied with the country that | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
shuts out the voices of millions of ordinary people and listening only | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
to the powerful? Are you satisfied with a country standing apart as | :02:49. | :02:53. | |
to the powerful? Are you satisfied two nations? Well I'm not satisfied, | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
we're Britain, we're better than this. Better than this, but faced | :02:57. | :03:03. | |
with a major problem, people's earnings no longer match growth. | :03:03. | :03:07. | |
What I'm about to tell you is the most important thing I will say | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
today about what needs to change about our country. They used to say | :03:10. | :03:16. | |
a rising tide lifts all boats, now the rising tide just seems to lift | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
the yachts. Now I have a question, now I have got a question for you | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
ladies and gentlemen, do the Tories get it? No. Come on, I didn't hear | :03:24. | :03:31. | |
you. Do the Tories get it? NO! OK, that's better. To prove he got it, | :03:31. | :03:38. | |
Ed Miliband unveiled this: We need successful energy companies in | :03:38. | :03:42. | |
Britain. We need them to invest for the future. But you need to get a | :03:42. | :03:48. | |
vair deal, and frankly -- fair deal, and frankly, there will never be | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
public consent for that investment unless you do get a fair deal. If | :03:51. | :03:57. | |
we win that election in 2015, the next Labour Government will freeze | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
we win that election in 2015, the gas and electricity prices until | :03:59. | :04:03. | |
the start of 2017. APPLAUSE | :04:03. | :04:09. | |
That's what I mean by a Government that fights for you, that's what I | :04:09. | :04:13. | |
mean when I say, Britain can do better than this. | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
APPLAUSE The Labour leader was talking to | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
the hall, and to a country struggling with Energy Bills. If it | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
works it broadens his appeal beyond Labour folk. And comedians. Critics | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
warned immediately of energy blackouts, but Ed Miliband had | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
drawn a fresh dividing line with the Government. He would draw | :04:33. | :04:37. | |
another. We will say to private developers, you can't just sit on | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
land, and refuse to build, we will give them a very clear message, | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
either use the land or lose the land. That is what the next Labour | :04:45. | :04:51. | |
Government will do. We have got our party back Neil Kinnock said when | :04:51. | :04:55. | |
Ed Miliband became leader, and today he was very happy again. Ed | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
Miliband judges that the country has shifted left, in his speech he | :04:59. | :05:03. | |
moved from policies on to personality. If you want to know | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
the difference between me and David Cameron, here is an easy way to | :05:07. | :05:12. | |
remember it, when it was Murdoch versus the McCanns he took the side | :05:12. | :05:18. | |
of Murdoch. When it was a tobacco lobby versus the cancer charities, | :05:18. | :05:24. | |
he took the side of the tobacco loby, when it was millionaires and | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
tax cut and the Bedroom Tax, he took the side of the millionaires, | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
come to think of it, here is an even easier way to remember it, | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
David Cameron was the Prime Minister who introduced the Bedroom | :05:35. | :05:38. | |
Tax, I will be the Prime Minister who repeals the Bedroom Tax. You | :05:38. | :05:43. | |
have got the gist of Ed Miliband's pitch. Under him Britain will be | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
better than under the Tories. Tucked away in this crowd, some on | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
Labour's right worried at a speech that nobbles big business, big | :05:51. | :05:56. | |
energy and private developers' land, but barely mentions schools and | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
welfare reform. It played very well in the hall, a lot of people out | :06:00. | :06:02. | |
welfare reform. It played very well there are very happy, how did it | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
play across the country, on bringing down the deficit there was | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
a paragraph, but not much more. On party reform and reforming the | :06:09. | :06:13. | |
links with the unions, yes he mentioned it, but he turned it into | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
a joke, for a lot of people it is not a joke. This guy's laughing too, | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
Miliband's speechwriter. Did you write it all? Ed writes everything. | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
Happy because in fighting energy companies they think they are on | :06:25. | :06:30. | |
the right side of public opinion. On living standards Ed Miliband's | :06:30. | :06:35. | |
speech may appeal widely, but by leaving unaddressed other areas, | :06:35. | :06:39. | |
today the Labour leader didn't stray far from his comfort zone. In | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
the general election just 20 months away, we will learn if enough of | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
the electorate also finds his vision comfortable. | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
The Shadow Business Secretary Chuka Umunna joins us now from Brighton. | :06:51. | :06:58. | |
Good evening Jeremy. How are you. I'm all right. How much will this | :06:58. | :07:05. | |
policy cost? Which one are you talking about the freeze on energy | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
prices. The capping of energy prices? It will cost the big six | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
energy companies, the House of Commons estimates, about £4.5 | :07:13. | :07:18. | |
billion, we think they can more than afford that given that we | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
estimate they have been overcharging customers in the | :07:23. | :07:28. | |
region of £7 billion. You know what the wholesale price of energy will | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
be? We have done the estimates, and look, what this is about and let me | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
put this in context, your viewers Jeremy are facing the biggest cost | :07:37. | :07:41. | |
of living crisis in a generation. That has been illustrating itself | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
in the fall of in pay, we have had the second biggest drop in pay in | :07:46. | :07:50. | |
the G20. Your viewers on average have sustained a £1,500 pay cut. We | :07:50. | :07:55. | |
have seen energy prices hitting people, they are paying £300 more | :07:55. | :08:00. | |
in bills, and clobbered by the rail firms as well. The question is do | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
you stand back or seek to do something about this? I have | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
obviously seen the package talking about left and right-wing, I don't | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
think viewers care whether it is left or right-wing, all they know | :08:10. | :08:14. | |
that in many respects they have been working harder than ever | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
before over the last few years, they are paid less and costs are | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
increasing. They want a party that are going to make a difference. | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
They will want the lights being on. If the consequence of your...That | :08:25. | :08:32. | |
Is nonsense and put about the large energy companies, you will not get | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
them coming out today massively welcoming these proposals. It is a | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
tough package for them. We have to consider what is in the national | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
interest, what is the best thing for the majority of people in this | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
country. The idea that the lights are going out. We know they have | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
been underinvest anything our energy needs over the last 15 years | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
or so. The idea that having a freeze that comes into effect if | :08:53. | :08:58. | |
there is a Labour Government in 2015 and will be temporary and | :08:58. | :09:01. | |
carry on to January 2017, the idea that is going to cause the lights | :09:01. | :09:08. | |
to go out is patently absurd. Patently absurd. And you pose as | :09:08. | :09:13. | |
the party friendly to business? Look at what we have done today, in | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
terms of the business rates. The business rates that many of our | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
businesses are telling us are clobbering them. That is going to | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
help 98% of businesses in this country. Why should an energy | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
company do business in Britain? We are incredibly pro-business. Why | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
should an energy company do business in Britain if effectively | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
you are confiscating their profits? Well with the greatest of respect, | :09:38. | :09:41. | |
we are not confiscating their profits, but we have seen market | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
failure in the energy industry. There isn't enough competition, | :09:45. | :09:50. | |
Which? Has just brought out figures recently showing that overcharging | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
has cost consumers £3.9 billion. What we're trying to ensure is | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
there is more rigorous competition, and you have a market working for | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
people. I don't think that is an anti-business thing at all. If you | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
want a God functioning competitive market, you have got to make -- a | :10:05. | :10:07. | |
good functioning competitive market you have to make sure there is | :10:07. | :10:11. | |
rigorous competition and the consumer is getting a fair deal. | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
You are going to sit there and tell us there will be guaranteed no | :10:16. | :10:20. | |
consequences for such a cap. You can guarantee that the lights will | :10:20. | :10:24. | |
definitely remain on, and businesses will continue to invest | :10:24. | :10:27. | |
in the way they have been previously investing? Well look the | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
fact is if you look at investment, the majority of investment hasn't | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
been in terms of developing our energy need. The majority of | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
investment has not been coming from the big six. Now the reason that we | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
are seeking to do this price freeze is to allow us time to put in place | :10:42. | :10:49. | |
a new regulatory architecture, we said we will abolish Ofgem. This | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
will allow 20 months for us to put in place to replace it to sort out | :10:53. | :10:59. | |
the energy market to get a better deal for viewers. Ultimately you | :10:59. | :11:04. | |
are talking about what this means for businesses. If people are being | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
squeezed they are not spending money in our businesses. We need to | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
ensure, not only as I said people are seeing their pay go further, as | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
the economy rises, the proceeds of that will be shared by more people | :11:16. | :11:18. | |
the economy rises, the proceeds of not just the top 1%, that is a good | :11:18. | :11:25. | |
thing for businesses. If you are were watching last night, if you | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
could see through the rainforest which our Australian director | :11:29. | :11:34. | |
imagines to be what a conservatory looks like. You will be familiar | :11:34. | :11:36. | |
with the idea if Labour wants to win the next election it has to | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
appeal to people who have conservatories or aspire to have | :11:41. | :11:43. | |
them. There is another set of beliefs that Labour doesn't need to | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
do any such thing, that it can just rely on the core votes, 35% or so | :11:48. | :11:53. | |
of the electorate. Ed Miliband doesn't need to look good in | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
Dorking as long as he gets the vote out in Dalston. | :11:57. | :12:02. | |
What proportion of the vote does Ed Miliband need to become Prime | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
Minister? The answer is, it depends. It depends on what the other | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
parties do. Our starting point has to be the position that the parties | :12:10. | :12:16. | |
were in the 2010 general election and to jog our memories we have | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
written the results over there on the sea over there. | :12:19. | :12:30. | |
That was their worst showing since Michael Foot was leader. | :12:30. | :12:38. | |
So that is how they were. A lot has changed since then. Since being in | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
Government the Lib Dems have paid a big electoral price for their | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
coalition with the Conservatives. Their vote has gone down by more | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
than half. Have those votes gone to Labour, we ask? And the Tories have | :12:50. | :12:56. | |
had their own problems, UKIP has taken 10-11% of the votes at the | :12:56. | :13:00. | |
moment. Mash all that together and it could mean that Ed Miliband gets | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
to Downing Street with 35% of the popular vote. It is quite possible | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
for Labour to be the largest party on around 35% of the vote. It | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
for Labour to be the largest party wouldn't have an outright majority | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
on that, it would need to coalition with the liberals or some other | :13:13. | :13:20. | |
arrangement, to win outright it needs 38-40%. But 35% could just | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
arrangement, to win outright it make Ed Miliband Prime Minister. | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
There is a long way to the next general election, and Ed Miliband | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
isn't about to kick back in a deck chair and hope nothing changes, | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
afterall the UKIP vote could collapse, the Lib Dems could | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
recover and then he would be in trouble. No, what he's doing is | :13:34. | :13:39. | |
pursuing a demographic he thinks can add to his core vote without | :13:39. | :13:44. | |
alienating his core voters. Who are these precious people? Young | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
families with children. For a start this group notices Government | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
policy more in matters like health and education, plus, pollsters say | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
they have fewer political loyalties, meaning they are up for grabs. We | :13:56. | :14:04. | |
can see how Labour is trying to engage them, policies on child | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
cautious wrap-around school hours, more house building. Don't expect | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
the coalition to leave Labour to it, they are making their own pitch for | :14:11. | :14:16. | |
this important demographic. Last week Nick Clegg promising free | :14:16. | :14:21. | |
school meals and the help on buying housing. The next election could be | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
decided on who gets the best policies to attract young families | :14:25. | :14:28. | |
with children. Here to assess what Ed Miliband's | :14:28. | :14:31. | |
speech can tell us about Labour's election strategy we have the | :14:31. | :14:35. | |
deputy editor of the New Statesman Helen Lewis, and from the | :14:35. | :14:39. | |
independent on Sunday, John Rentoul, who do you think he was talking to? | :14:39. | :14:43. | |
He was talking to the Labour Party in the hall. To a large extent. | :14:43. | :14:48. | |
Obviously he was addressing the nation, you always have to address | :14:48. | :14:59. | |
two audiences at once. I think he was. Chuka Umunna didn't like the | :14:59. | :15:02. | |
left-wing terms but he was addressing them outside. Did you | :15:02. | :15:05. | |
feel he was going for the core vote? No I don't think he did, the | :15:05. | :15:09. | |
energy section was intended to, in focus groups that goes very well, | :15:09. | :15:13. | |
people are really concerned about energy prices. Maybe you might | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
remember the 1970s? No policy is without risk. They have decided to | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
pick this fight, it is one they think they can win. That is what | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
politics is about, it is about picking fights. It is a fight that | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
suggests that the Labour Party doesn't understand business it | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
doesn't understand markets and profit motive, it doesn't approve | :15:31. | :15:36. | |
of the profit motive. It is just, it may have a superficial appeal, | :15:36. | :15:42. | |
but if people think that the Labour Party doesn't understand business | :15:42. | :15:46. | |
and how you make wealth in this country. Your analysis there is to | :15:46. | :15:49. | |
the right of the Conservative Party, David Cameron acknowledges there is | :15:50. | :15:52. | |
a problem with the energy market and having talks with the | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
significant six energy companies, he has a vague wafflely plan about | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
offering the lowest tarrif, this is concrete action on that. He | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
understands focus groups complain about energy prices, of course they | :16:03. | :16:08. | |
do, that doesn't mean that focus groups, once they have had a chance | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
to think about it think you can defy the laws of supply and demand. | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
It doesn't matter, if you are successful in forming a Government, | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
if you make a successful calculation, once you get to | :16:18. | :16:20. | |
Government it really doesn't matter what people think? You have to get | :16:21. | :16:24. | |
into Government. In order to get into Government there is no use in | :16:24. | :16:28. | |
just appealing to people who have a very simplistic idea of how the | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
economy work, you have it appeal to the centre ground to people who | :16:31. | :16:37. | |
actually understand aspiration and wealth making. Conservatory owners, | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
obviously? Who will recognise, even if they complain about energy | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
prices that price freezes on the big six companies is just not going | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
to work. I think people can be guilty of applying different | :16:49. | :16:52. | |
standards to Labour, you are already hearing complaints about | :16:52. | :16:55. | |
the free childcare and the free breakfast club, which you just | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
didn't hear around the Lib Dems and their plan for free school meals, | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
there is a big problem around Labour that everybody instantly | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
jumps to where is the money? The other thing is, there were two | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
things they were being taxed with before this conference began, one | :17:08. | :17:12. | |
was shortage of policies, the other was Ed Miliband does not look like | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
a Prime Minister. Now do you think, let's deal with the second one, | :17:17. | :17:20. | |
does he look like a Prime Minister? I think that there is a huge | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
advantage in being Prime Minister that you get to stand in front of | :17:23. | :17:25. | |
the door and that automatically makes you look like a Prime | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
Minister, he doesn't have that. I thought that was a confident | :17:28. | :17:31. | |
performance, I thought even the panto bits which are normally full- | :17:31. | :17:37. | |
body cringe were fine. He was self- deprecate, he charged through the | :17:37. | :17:40. | |
things he knows are a problem, I thought it was confident. I was | :17:40. | :17:44. | |
suffering from a full-body cringe almost for all 63 minutes. I mean | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
you know it is an unfair question as to whether he looks like a Prime | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
Minister. He could be Prime Minister, he would be a slightly | :17:51. | :17:54. | |
peculiar one. What do you mean? Well, I mean he had this odd line | :17:54. | :18:00. | |
about the troops in Afghanistan saying some of them were young | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
enough to be his children. He was trying to remind us he's not as | :18:04. | :18:11. | |
young as he looks. He does look young and inexperienced, even | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
though he's one of the most experienced politicians in Britain | :18:14. | :18:16. | |
today. The Kenyan President said this | :18:16. | :18:20. | |
evening that the outrage and hostage taking at the shopping mall | :18:20. | :18:24. | |
in his capital is over. We have ashamed and defeated the attackers, | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
claiming that security forces had shot five of them dead and detained | :18:28. | :18:34. | |
11 others. Over 60 further people have been killed. Whether the thing | :18:34. | :18:39. | |
is over is unclear, as is the precise identity of the attackers. | :18:40. | :18:44. | |
The Foreign Ministry say they included a British woman. From the | :18:44. | :18:50. | |
information that we have two or three Americans and I think so far | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
I have heard of one Brit. The Brit was a British-born woman? A woman. | :18:54. | :19:00. | |
She's I think done this many times before. And the Americans? The | :19:00. | :19:07. | |
Americans from the information we have are young men. Richard Watson | :19:07. | :19:13. | |
who knows a great deal about Al- Shabab and indeed other Islamic or | :19:13. | :19:18. | |
Islamist organisations is with us now. Tell us about this White | :19:18. | :19:25. | |
Widow? It is a reference to Matthew Leuenberger, a British convert to | :19:25. | :19:36. | |
laem Amanda Lewthwaite, she's wantedor connections with others | :19:36. | :19:41. | |
facing terrorism trials in Mombasa. Samantha was married to one of the | :19:41. | :19:48. | |
7/7 bombers, Ellen Linstead, back in 2005. A source close to the | :19:48. | :19:54. | |
original police investigation said they did look losely at Samantha | :19:54. | :20:03. | |
Lewthwait EBacc in 2005 and they didn't find anything to suggest she | :20:03. | :20:12. | |
was aware of her husband's murdous intentions. Could she be involved? | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
The media is speculating very much about it today. Security forces are | :20:16. | :20:20. | |
steering away from firm conclusions on it at the moment. They say there | :20:20. | :20:31. | |
is precedent in Somalia of women getting involved in these suicide | :20:31. | :20:36. | |
bombing. Usually females take part in these attacks, give logistic | :20:36. | :20:42. | |
support, courier services or surveillance. What about the wider | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
picture of westerners being involved in this sort of thing? | :20:45. | :20:51. | |
Well this is what's very troubling for western security agencies. It | :20:51. | :20:57. | |
is surpbtly assessed that 50 British nationals went out to | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
Somalia to fight Al-Shabab. They post videos on-line, and some | :21:01. | :21:03. | |
feature very strong British accents. A far greater number have travelled | :21:03. | :21:23. | |
from America compared with Great Britain. A month ago a video was | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
released on-line, featuring the stories of three young men from | :21:27. | :21:31. | |
Minnesota, who travelled out to join Al-Shabab and died out there | :21:31. | :21:38. | |
in fighting. The FBI began to investigate the cases, some of the | :21:38. | :21:43. | |
young mujahideen were already active on the battlefields of Jihad, | :21:43. | :21:49. | |
and relishing in the freedom to practice all the tenets of their | :21:49. | :21:52. | |
and relishing in the freedom to face, including Jihad against the | :21:52. | :21:59. | |
disbelievers. Thank you very much Richard. | :21:59. | :22:07. | |
Now, it being just before 11.00pm, the future of the planet. On Friday | :22:08. | :22:11. | |
we will hear what the world's most authoritative report has to say | :22:11. | :22:15. | |
about climate change. So it is the moment for last-minute political | :22:15. | :22:19. | |
wrangling. Scientists say they are more certain than ever about some | :22:19. | :22:25. | |
aspects of climate change, but, and it is a critical but, there are | :22:25. | :22:29. | |
fast things they don't know about how climate work. That will give | :22:29. | :22:34. | |
ammunition to all those who say the whole phenomenon is greatly | :22:34. | :22:39. | |
overblown. First this is about what we are likely to learn this week. | :22:39. | :22:42. | |
Scientists say the planet is we are likely to learn this week. | :22:42. | :22:45. | |
warming, and each and every one of us is playing a part in that. | :22:45. | :22:51. | |
Friday's report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate | :22:51. | :22:55. | |
Change, the IPCC is the work of hundreds of experts. It is the | :22:55. | :23:00. | |
first of a trilogy, this one on the state of climate science, the | :23:00. | :23:03. | |
second and third come next year and look at likely impacts and what | :23:03. | :23:08. | |
might be done about those. The report itself will be a huge | :23:08. | :23:12. | |
technical tone, but it is the distillation of that, a summary for | :23:12. | :23:16. | |
policy makers that will be chewed over and tweaked with Government | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
officials alongside scientists in Stockholm this week. This is a | :23:20. | :23:23. | |
final draft of that report, and it matters because it will form the | :23:23. | :23:30. | |
basis of policy in future. The final draft says it is extremely | :23:30. | :23:36. | |
likely that IPCC speak for 95% certain, that human influence on | :23:36. | :23:40. | |
climate caused more than half the observed increase in global average | :23:40. | :23:45. | |
surface temperatures from 1951-2010. But the report is expected to state | :23:45. | :23:50. | |
clearly where there are gaps in knowledge or uncertainties. The | :23:50. | :23:55. | |
most pressing of which is arguably the called slowdown or pause. The | :23:55. | :23:59. | |
fact that global surface temperatures have not risen above | :23:59. | :24:03. | |
the level recorded in 1998. For the last 15 years. How much is the plan | :24:03. | :24:10. | |
the warming? In this graph the red area shows computer simulations of | :24:10. | :24:14. | |
the global average temperature. The white line shows what is being | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
recorded, with temperatures rising in recent years. In 1998, for | :24:18. | :24:22. | |
reasons that scientists cannot yet explain, the warming paused. Those | :24:22. | :24:28. | |
who are sceptical of climate science say this bolsters their | :24:28. | :24:31. | |
position that the prevailing scientific view is wrong. It is one | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
of the most fierce low debated areas of climate science. | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
Many argue that the earth has turned to warm but that the heat | :24:39. | :24:44. | |
has been absorbed by the oceans. There is a network of floating | :24:44. | :24:51. | |
sensors on our oceans, even so data is incomplete. Half of the slowdown | :24:51. | :24:58. | |
can be linked to the oceans, the other half to theing effect of | :24:58. | :25:03. | |
volcanos and a less active sun. Scientists are not confident of the | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
explanation. Over the last 150 years we have seen global | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
temperatures increase by 0.8 degrees centigrade. In the last 15 | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
years temperatures haven't warmed warmed very much. It is a puzzle, | :25:15. | :25:19. | |
we want to know why. We are beginning to understand the reasons | :25:19. | :25:24. | |
why. But it is important to see the recent cause in the wider context | :25:24. | :25:29. | |
of the problem, global surface temperatures are not the only | :25:29. | :25:32. | |
of the problem, global surface important metric of climate change. | :25:32. | :25:38. | |
We look to the seas rising, we see the ieds melting away. Then there | :25:38. | :25:44. | |
is the model, scientists rely heavily on computer models | :25:44. | :25:51. | |
attempting to forecast. There is high level of confidence that these | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
have done a good job of modelling the warming of the second half of | :25:54. | :25:58. | |
the 20th century. But not the pause in global surface temperatures of | :25:58. | :26:03. | |
the past 15 years. Are the climate models wrong, and has climate | :26:03. | :26:09. | |
change stopped. No, climate change has not stopped, we see similar | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
pauses, like in the observations, what we understand is that on the | :26:12. | :26:18. | |
one hand we have a warming influence from increasing | :26:18. | :26:20. | |
greenhouse gases. On the other hand we have a cooling influence from | :26:20. | :26:24. | |
small volcanic eruptions and a small decloin in solar activity. | :26:24. | :26:32. | |
The third important -- declining in solar activity. As these temporary | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
cooling factors subside the warming will come again. For the first time | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
the report is expected to set out a carbon budget, the total reached | :26:41. | :26:46. | |
across the globe we must stay below for any temperature rise to be less | :26:46. | :26:53. | |
than 2 degrees, compared to industrial times. This is agreed by | :26:53. | :26:55. | |
Government, and the draft says to have a reasonable chance of | :26:55. | :26:59. | |
achieving this the total amount of carbon to be released is the | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
equivalent of a trillion tonnes. We have already released half of that. | :27:02. | :27:08. | |
Here I have eight little lumps of coal, each one representing 2500 | :27:08. | :27:14. | |
billion tonnes of fossil carbon. Before the fossil regulation, we | :27:14. | :27:18. | |
had four million tonnes, eight lumps of goal underground, 250 | :27:18. | :27:26. | |
years to burn the first half trillion. Set for the next half in | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
years to burn the first half three-to-five years, and the next | :27:30. | :27:36. | |
part will take us over the argument. So the really big question is what | :27:36. | :27:43. | |
will we do when all the carbon available underground waiting to be | :27:43. | :27:46. | |
burned. The report is expected to describe clear signals of human | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
influence on the climate. But with the higher extremes of warming now | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
thought less likely, they will be scoping the detail for sceptics to | :27:54. | :27:58. | |
argue that the case for climate change has been overstated and more | :27:58. | :28:02. | |
clarity about uncertainties long overdue. With us is my guest to | :28:02. | :28:16. | |
discuss that. Joining us from the University of Wisconsin we have the | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
professor. It was suggested to us, not very | :28:19. | :28:24. | |
long ago that the science of all this was settled, it is clearly not | :28:24. | :28:29. | |
settled? Science is never settled of there was always open questions | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
in science to further understand and as was highlighted in Susan's | :28:34. | :28:37. | |
in science to further understand report there, there is exciting | :28:37. | :28:40. | |
research questions to look at. But what is clear is that humans are | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
having a significant influence on the climate and that is creating | :28:44. | :28:51. | |
significant risks associated with changes to our weather systems, be | :28:51. | :28:56. | |
that in the UK, the flods that we have seen in recent years -- floods | :28:56. | :29:00. | |
we have seen in recent years, or heatwaves or risks to coastal | :29:00. | :29:05. | |
infrastructure from sea level rises and storms. Not as extreme as | :29:05. | :29:12. | |
predicted? As Susan mentioned in her report there are interesting | :29:12. | :29:17. | |
questions as to what has happened to temperature over the last 15 | :29:17. | :29:23. | |
years or so. There is a lot of research looking into that. As | :29:23. | :29:30. | |
clearly described, what is occurring is we have an underlying | :29:30. | :29:37. | |
as a result of increases in greenhouse gas, and as a result | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
there are fluctuations. You could see in the graph put up of the | :29:39. | :29:48. | |
temperature over the 100 years there are times when the | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
temperature has not gone up, but in fits and starts. It is like the | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
stock market, things are up as well fits and starts. It is like the | :29:54. | :29:58. | |
as down, but the overlying trend is one of an increase. What do you | :29:58. | :30:09. | |
conclude from the the latest review, is the science settled? No, I don't | :30:09. | :30:15. | |
believe the science is settled. I believe that there is a lot of | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
things we don't understand and that believe that there is a lot of | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
we need to concentrate more in understanding the natural climate | :30:21. | :30:28. | |
system. Your guest just mentions, yes there is an underlying, slowly | :30:28. | :30:34. | |
rising signal which is attributed by many to CO2 emission. On top of | :30:34. | :30:42. | |
that superimposeed we have positive and negative trend regimes for | :30:42. | :30:47. | |
global temperatures. What we see now is simply another one of those | :30:47. | :30:51. | |
ray genomes, actually we were the first ones to identify it six years | :30:51. | :31:05. | |
ago. It is not due to areosols and the fight between CO 2., it is the | :31:05. | :31:09. | |
incertainly climate system, we have documented it in several | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
publications and it is widely accepted. Doesn't the precautionary | :31:12. | :31:16. | |
principle indicate that as you say, there has been an increase, would | :31:16. | :31:21. | |
it not be sensible to take precautions? I'm not saying that we | :31:21. | :31:26. | |
should not take precautions. When precautions? I'm not saying that we | :31:26. | :31:35. | |
we claim that the warmth of the 1980s and 1990 has stopped. We | :31:36. | :31:39. | |
simply say that the climate system has gone to a new regime where the | :31:39. | :31:43. | |
temperature will level off or cool a little bit. It doesn't say that | :31:43. | :31:52. | |
the low-rising long-term trend has been reversed. This is | :31:52. | :31:59. | |
misunderstood. Now low-rising long- term trend is there, many think it | :31:59. | :32:04. | |
is because of CO2 emissions, there is other possibilities. There is | :32:04. | :32:08. | |
low circulation, there is all the activity, a combination of | :32:08. | :32:10. | |
everything, we don't know for sure activity, a combination of | :32:10. | :32:17. | |
what is the actual number. Wouldn't the sensible thing be to do is to | :32:17. | :32:24. | |
hold our horses before we enter anything in hesitantly? That is | :32:24. | :32:28. | |
what people are trying to play politics with the science are | :32:28. | :32:34. | |
trying to some how manipulate by misrepresenting the state of the | :32:34. | :32:38. | |
science. What the science is clear is if we can continue to equate | :32:38. | :32:43. | |
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we are significantly | :32:43. | :32:47. | |
increasing the risk of severe weather events around the world. It | :32:47. | :32:54. | |
is the risk we want to aed void. That matter of causation is still | :32:54. | :33:01. | |
hypothesis. I'm not sure which bit. The fact it is caused by human | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
activity, you could say they run in parallel but you can't prove it? No, | :33:05. | :33:12. | |
the fact that if you put more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, | :33:12. | :33:13. | |
that causes an increase in carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, | :33:13. | :33:22. | |
temperature. That is very settled. Where there are open questions, as | :33:22. | :33:26. | |
described in the report, associated with the fluctuations on top of | :33:26. | :33:34. | |
that. That doesn't deny the fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse | :33:34. | :33:39. | |
gas. Let me turn to Lord Stern, his influential report on the economics | :33:39. | :33:43. | |
of climate change in 2006 helped to set the direction of Government | :33:43. | :33:50. | |
policy. What do you conclude on the basis of what we know about the | :33:50. | :33:54. | |
slightly lower pace of change? That we have a major problem of risk | :33:54. | :33:59. | |
management and that the report that is just coming out on Friday has | :33:59. | :34:05. | |
reaffirmed that there is a strong trend, that the risks are very | :34:05. | :34:14. | |
large and this missing from the discussion so far is the weight and | :34:14. | :34:20. | |
play. The dangers of delay happen if you wait you have a ratchet | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
effect of greenhouse gases coming through from human active and | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
raising the stock, the concentration that greenhouse gases | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
are in the atmosphere with. It is a ratchet effect and it is hard to | :34:33. | :34:37. | |
get the CO2 out. There is a second reason. If you wait you look in | :34:37. | :34:45. | |
high-carbon infrastruck stuer and capital. It is not -- | :34:45. | :34:50. | |
infrastructure and capital. It is not that things aren't clear, they | :34:50. | :34:53. | |
are very clear at the moment, but it is a dangerous strategy. If you | :34:53. | :34:58. | |
were writing your report based on what we will learn on Friday, would | :34:58. | :35:03. | |
you write the same report? I the science looks more risky than when | :35:03. | :35:06. | |
we wrote the report. What do you mean by risky? Frpbgt the dangers | :35:06. | :35:11. | |
of higher temperatures -- The dangers of higher temperatures | :35:11. | :35:16. | |
coming through more quickly may be larger. The emissions were building | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
up faster than we thought at the time. The emissions to greenhouse | :35:20. | :35:24. | |
gases, some of the things have been happening faster than we thought. | :35:24. | :35:30. | |
And some things slower? Basically most of the big things have been | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
happening faster than we thought in terms it of those effects of global | :35:33. | :35:38. | |
warming coming through. There has been a plateau for about 15 years, | :35:38. | :35:45. | |
but that is the story of fluctuations and I thought the | :35:45. | :35:49. | |
report and the doctor made very clear. You haven't heard today any | :35:49. | :35:54. | |
reason to suppose, and you won't hear on Friday any reason to | :35:54. | :35:58. | |
suppose that there is anything other than a strong underloiing | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
trend. Your report made it seem like a matter of life and death | :36:02. | :36:07. | |
urgency? It is, if we are to have a chance toled holeing two degrees, | :36:07. | :36:11. | |
we are going to have to cut emissions radically. Global | :36:11. | :36:16. | |
emissions by a factor of we will over two,000, two ,500, over the | :36:16. | :36:24. | |
next few years. Despite the fact that it seems to have changed very | :36:24. | :36:31. | |
likely -- light low, you are prepared to people there. The | :36:31. | :36:37. | |
admissions have gone up five-times faster than we thought. And | :36:37. | :36:40. | |
concentrations have too. Some of the effects, like the melting of | :36:40. | :36:45. | |
glass Kerrs are coming through faster than I thought. You have a | :36:45. | :36:50. | |
minor adjustment in the upper end of the possiblities, but you have | :36:50. | :36:57. | |
other things happening that suggests those problems and the | :36:57. | :37:04. | |
risks we described are there. Do you think you oversold it? I have | :37:04. | :37:09. | |
undersold the story. I have given you big reasons why we should worry | :37:09. | :37:15. | |
more. The the cuts coming through more quickly. There is something | :37:15. | :37:20. | |
ols too which wasn't raised in the discussion of the science is the | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
science models leave out some important risks which they can't | :37:25. | :37:31. | |
really capture in the models yet. Which scientists know and could | :37:31. | :37:33. | |
have a strong reason to suppose could be worrying. Two important | :37:33. | :37:41. | |
ones, the thawing of the thermofrost and the release of | :37:41. | :37:44. | |
methane, that could be a huge effect because of the vast qant | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
toes of me tain, and seabed me tain -- quantities of me thain. Those | :37:49. | :37:55. | |
are hard to capture in a formal way. But the scientists have strong | :37:55. | :37:58. | |
reason to believe that those effects could be very big. You are | :37:58. | :38:11. | |
a worried man, even since the report. Since then we have had the | :38:11. | :38:17. | |
greenest Government ever do you think that? It is hard to sustain | :38:17. | :38:21. | |
that proposition, let's be clear, they stuck to the climate change | :38:21. | :38:30. | |
legislation we have the clear carbon budget associated with that | :38:30. | :38:35. | |
legislation. But they have introduced some uncertainty in the | :38:35. | :38:39. | |
degree of commitment. One of them is that they will review the fourth | :38:39. | :38:42. | |
degree of commitment. One of them carbon budget, our targeting for | :38:42. | :38:47. | |
the 2020s, that gives uncertainty. That kind of uncertainty is where | :38:47. | :38:51. | |
they are going and restricting investment, it is a dampener on | :38:51. | :38:55. | |
investment. Uncertainty about where Government policy is going has, I | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
think, been created by this Government. For reasons I describe | :39:00. | :39:07. | |
in reviewing the carbon budget, but it is revealed they are not united | :39:07. | :39:13. | |
internally as well. That frightens investment away, that is why we | :39:14. | :39:17. | |
have small margins of capacity in the UK. Left to its own devices | :39:17. | :39:21. | |
nature will very often reassert itself, life goes on. In China | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
human intervention has created a massive shortage of | :39:26. | :40:02. | |
human intervention has created a expected to get hitched. In China | :40:02. | :40:06. | |
the people get married in block, the brides wear simple costume and | :40:06. | :40:13. | |
the bride groom in dark clothes. Traditional match makers used to do | :40:13. | :40:19. | |
the job now mums and dads are playing Cupid. Every month public | :40:19. | :40:24. | |
parks are filled by anxious parents, hawking what are effectively their | :40:24. | :40:30. | |
children's CVs. Many look in advance and many are here without | :40:30. | :40:35. | |
their son's knowledge. This mum, son to a young energy is keen to | :40:35. | :40:39. | |
talk. Why is it so difficult to find someone to marry, you are good | :40:39. | :40:45. | |
looking and have a good job? TRANSLATION: Thanks for the | :40:45. | :40:49. | |
compliment. I think my prospects aren't that good. It would take me | :40:49. | :40:54. | |
200 years to buy a department here, eating and drinking, just work. | :40:54. | :41:06. | |
Lack of cash is one problem for would-be groom, the other is a | :41:06. | :41:14. | |
critical shortage of women. In the late 70s the Chinese Government | :41:14. | :41:19. | |
introduced the called one-child policy, designed to curb population | :41:19. | :41:21. | |
growth, but it backfired. In policy, designed to curb population | :41:21. | :41:25. | |
Chinese culture male children have always been more prized. Ultimately | :41:25. | :41:32. | |
this led to a wave of illegal, sex- selective abortions and in extreme | :41:32. | :41:38. | |
cases female infanticide. As a result analysts say that by the end | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
of this decade there will be at least 24 million excess men. This | :41:43. | :41:59. | |
is a mass speed dating event. If the girl accepts the red rose the | :41:59. | :42:14. | |
man is allowed to sit down. The first thing that people do when | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
they come to the matchmaking event is post their profile on the wall. | :42:17. | :42:22. | |
You can see their candidate number, their age, their height which, is | :42:22. | :42:26. | |
absolutely crucial here in China, and their education. This guy has | :42:26. | :42:31. | |
been to university, he's a CEO, this man next to him a high school | :42:31. | :42:37. | |
lever. TRANSLATION: There is a lot of competition, the girls are quite | :42:37. | :42:45. | |
demanding and they prefer tall guys. Some girls rejected my rose because | :42:45. | :42:55. | |
I wasn't their Mr Right. It is all a bit humiliating and | :42:55. | :43:02. | |
time-consuming. That's why China's wealthiest bachelors contract out | :43:02. | :43:06. | |
the search for a spouse. They employ a love-hunter! Peng Tai is | :43:06. | :43:21. | |
taking me shopping, not for clothes, we're looking for girls. | :43:21. | :43:29. | |
TRANSLATION: If I meet a very beautiful girl who meets | :43:29. | :43:32. | |
requirements I will watch her for a very long time. I don't really care | :43:32. | :43:35. | |
what the women think, this is what I do. It is my job. Basically I'm | :43:35. | :43:46. | |
after those girls who have nice skin, nice white skin and above | :43:46. | :43:51. | |
160cms in height. We certainly don't want one with a sour face. If | :43:51. | :44:01. | |
he find his richest clients a miss right, he could earn ten -- a Miss | :44:01. | :44:06. | |
Right, he could earn tens of thousands of pounds. | :44:06. | :44:14. | |
But as his boss explains, these billionares are a picky bunch. One | :44:14. | :44:19. | |
sent the love hunters to nine cities to trawl through 10,000 | :44:19. | :44:23. | |
girls. TRANSLATION: We have clients asking | :44:24. | :44:27. | |
for the girl to look like celebrities, such as the lead | :44:27. | :44:36. | |
actress in the film crouching tiger hidden dragon. Someone else wanted | :44:36. | :44:41. | |
the girl who looked like one of the country's top TV presenters. | :44:41. | :44:46. | |
This village in the mountainous south is a world away from the | :44:46. | :44:50. | |
maddening crowds of the Meg ga cities. | :44:51. | :44:57. | |
These men aged 30 and 28 are both unmatter he had I don't. Across | :44:57. | :45:02. | |
China there are more and more villages like theirs, filled with | :45:02. | :45:08. | |
single men, they call them "bare branch" because they can't continue | :45:08. | :45:23. | |
the family tree. TRANSLATION: The girls look forward for a better | :45:23. | :45:26. | |
life in the city, they can marry out. For us boys it is different, | :45:27. | :45:34. | |
we have to carry on the family name. Marriage is traditionally the | :45:34. | :45:38. | |
symbol of maturity in China, many don't treat unmarried men as adults, | :45:38. | :45:45. | |
regardless of their age. TRANSLATION: I don't want to come | :45:45. | :45:49. | |
home sometimes, once I get back here they keep saying you are owed | :45:49. | :45:54. | |
enough now, why don't you find a girlfriend. At one extreme of | :45:54. | :46:06. | |
China's atomised society, men can pick or choose their mate, at the | :46:06. | :46:10. | |
other end, back in the bachelor villages, there is no plaus at all. | :46:11. | :46:21. | |
It is the shortage of brides that could undermine China's future. | :46:21. | :46:33. | |
More of that report on Our World on the BBC News channel at 9.30 on | :46:33. | :46:38. | |
Saturday night. Time for one last piece of news from the UN in New | :46:39. | :46:44. | |
York. As we went on air, Hassan Rouhani of Iran has told the UN | :46:44. | :46:49. | |
General Assembly that Iran is prepared to engage in nuclear | :46:49. | :46:54. | |
negotiations that are time-bound and results orientated. He said | :46:54. | :46:59. | |
that nuclear weapons and other weapons of weapons of mass | :46:59. | :47:01. | |
destruction weapons of mass destruction and -- other weapons of | :47:01. | :47:10. | |
mass destruction, and he said nothing can't be resolved without a | :47:10. | :47:16. | |
rejection of violence. There is no meeting with President Obama and | :47:16. | :47:19. | |
the world's picture editors will have to wait for the historic | :47:19. | :47:23. | |
handshake. That is it for tonight, no question which were the most | :47:24. | :47:27. | |
watchable pictures to emerge from the conference today. It happened | :47:27. | :47:33. | |
when Damian McBride's pubisher took exception to a protestor trying to | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
get into the back of an interview with the man. Sussex Police are | :47:36. | :47:41. | |
taking a dim view, apparently. It is not the first and it won't be | :47:41. | :47:45. | |
the last time that the background is more interesting than the | :47:45. | :47:51. | |
foreground. David Cameron will become Prime Minister in the next | :47:51. | :47:56. | |
few days, probably on Friday and Saturday. The parent company of | :47:56. | :48:00. | |
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy as the subsidiaries | :48:00. | :48:05. | |
basically wind down. Police say they hope somebody burdened with | :48:05. | :48:09. | |
information. Tell me more about Michael Jackson. Knock it off. Full | :48:09. | :48:13. | |
of Andy Murray fans. | :48:13. | :48:16. |