24/09/2013 Newsnight


24/09/2013

News stories with Jeremy Paxman. Including how Labour want to freeze energy prices, more on the Kenya killings, plus climate change and how to get a girlfriend in China.


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Transcript


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Vote for us and get cheaper electricity. The Labour leader has

:00:09.:00:16.

laid out the offer he will make they next election.

:00:16.:00:19.

His fans all seemed to like the idea of a big price freeze, but can

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Governments do that sort of thing any longer? And do we really want

:00:24.:00:28.

to end up shivering in the dark if it all goes wrong.

:00:28.:00:37.

If Shadow Business Secretary ant explain how it will work he will

:00:37.:00:40.

lag your pipes for you. The cream of science will tell us

:00:40.:00:44.

what we know and don't know about global warming, we will make sense

:00:44.:00:47.

of their findings with the man who wrote the book on climate change

:00:47.:00:54.

economics, Lord Stern. And enter the love-hunter, this man's job is

:00:54.:00:59.

to find brides for the wealthy in a country where there is a shortage

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of young women. The annual Labour Party Conference

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wraps up tomorrow. Ed Miliband, who hopes to be taking on the Tennessee

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of Downing Street in a -- tenancy of Downing Street in a year-and-a-

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half or so has made promise of what he will do if he gets there. One of

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those was he will freeze the cost of energy for two years if he gets

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the job, even though many of his party think he's not up to it. He

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attempted some self-deprication, if you can do that with thousands

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watching you as you go about the stage. Be warned, there is, as you

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would expect at such a glamorous occasion flash photography.

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This afternoon we learned that the next general election will see a

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real choice about the cost of living, all right, but today the

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Labour leader gave us very different solutions.

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He started humble. It was local election day, Ella rode past me on

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her bike, she fell off. I election day, Ella rode past me on

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helped...it is not funny...I helped her up and afterwards she called me

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something I had never been called before ...she said I was, an

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"action hero"! Why are you laughing? That was. Just a joke, it

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was one of his themes, this speech showed that a Prime Minister Ed

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Miliband would be very acty. Are you satisfied with the country that

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shuts out the voices of millions of ordinary people and listening only

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to the powerful? Are you satisfied with a country standing apart as

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to the powerful? Are you satisfied two nations? Well I'm not satisfied,

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we're Britain, we're better than this. Better than this, but faced

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with a major problem, people's earnings no longer match growth.

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What I'm about to tell you is the most important thing I will say

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today about what needs to change about our country. They used to say

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a rising tide lifts all boats, now the rising tide just seems to lift

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the yachts. Now I have a question, now I have got a question for you

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ladies and gentlemen, do the Tories get it? No. Come on, I didn't hear

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you. Do the Tories get it? NO! OK, that's better. To prove he got it,

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Ed Miliband unveiled this: We need successful energy companies in

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Britain. We need them to invest for the future. But you need to get a

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vair deal, and frankly -- fair deal, and frankly, there will never be

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public consent for that investment unless you do get a fair deal. If

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we win that election in 2015, the next Labour Government will freeze

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we win that election in 2015, the gas and electricity prices until

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the start of 2017. APPLAUSE

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That's what I mean by a Government that fights for you, that's what I

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mean when I say, Britain can do better than this.

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APPLAUSE The Labour leader was talking to

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the hall, and to a country struggling with Energy Bills. If it

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works it broadens his appeal beyond Labour folk. And comedians. Critics

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warned immediately of energy blackouts, but Ed Miliband had

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drawn a fresh dividing line with the Government. He would draw

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another. We will say to private developers, you can't just sit on

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land, and refuse to build, we will give them a very clear message,

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either use the land or lose the land. That is what the next Labour

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Government will do. We have got our party back Neil Kinnock said when

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Ed Miliband became leader, and today he was very happy again. Ed

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Miliband judges that the country has shifted left, in his speech he

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moved from policies on to personality. If you want to know

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the difference between me and David Cameron, here is an easy way to

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remember it, when it was Murdoch versus the McCanns he took the side

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of Murdoch. When it was a tobacco lobby versus the cancer charities,

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he took the side of the tobacco loby, when it was millionaires and

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tax cut and the Bedroom Tax, he took the side of the millionaires,

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come to think of it, here is an even easier way to remember it,

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David Cameron was the Prime Minister who introduced the Bedroom

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Tax, I will be the Prime Minister who repeals the Bedroom Tax. You

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have got the gist of Ed Miliband's pitch. Under him Britain will be

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better than under the Tories. Tucked away in this crowd, some on

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Labour's right worried at a speech that nobbles big business, big

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energy and private developers' land, but barely mentions schools and

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welfare reform. It played very well in the hall, a lot of people out

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welfare reform. It played very well there are very happy, how did it

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play across the country, on bringing down the deficit there was

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a paragraph, but not much more. On party reform and reforming the

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links with the unions, yes he mentioned it, but he turned it into

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a joke, for a lot of people it is not a joke. This guy's laughing too,

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Miliband's speechwriter. Did you write it all? Ed writes everything.

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Happy because in fighting energy companies they think they are on

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the right side of public opinion. On living standards Ed Miliband's

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speech may appeal widely, but by leaving unaddressed other areas,

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today the Labour leader didn't stray far from his comfort zone. In

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the general election just 20 months away, we will learn if enough of

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the electorate also finds his vision comfortable.

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The Shadow Business Secretary Chuka Umunna joins us now from Brighton.

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Good evening Jeremy. How are you. I'm all right. How much will this

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policy cost? Which one are you talking about the freeze on energy

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prices. The capping of energy prices? It will cost the big six

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energy companies, the House of Commons estimates, about £4.5

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billion, we think they can more than afford that given that we

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estimate they have been overcharging customers in the

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region of £7 billion. You know what the wholesale price of energy will

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be? We have done the estimates, and look, what this is about and let me

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put this in context, your viewers Jeremy are facing the biggest cost

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of living crisis in a generation. That has been illustrating itself

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in the fall of in pay, we have had the second biggest drop in pay in

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the G20. Your viewers on average have sustained a £1,500 pay cut. We

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have seen energy prices hitting people, they are paying £300 more

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in bills, and clobbered by the rail firms as well. The question is do

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you stand back or seek to do something about this? I have

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obviously seen the package talking about left and right-wing, I don't

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think viewers care whether it is left or right-wing, all they know

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that in many respects they have been working harder than ever

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before over the last few years, they are paid less and costs are

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increasing. They want a party that are going to make a difference.

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They will want the lights being on. If the consequence of your...That

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Is nonsense and put about the large energy companies, you will not get

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them coming out today massively welcoming these proposals. It is a

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tough package for them. We have to consider what is in the national

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interest, what is the best thing for the majority of people in this

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country. The idea that the lights are going out. We know they have

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been underinvest anything our energy needs over the last 15 years

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or so. The idea that having a freeze that comes into effect if

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there is a Labour Government in 2015 and will be temporary and

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carry on to January 2017, the idea that is going to cause the lights

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to go out is patently absurd. Patently absurd. And you pose as

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the party friendly to business? Look at what we have done today, in

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terms of the business rates. The business rates that many of our

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businesses are telling us are clobbering them. That is going to

:09:22.:09:26.

help 98% of businesses in this country. Why should an energy

:09:27.:09:31.

company do business in Britain? We are incredibly pro-business. Why

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should an energy company do business in Britain if effectively

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you are confiscating their profits? Well with the greatest of respect,

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we are not confiscating their profits, but we have seen market

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failure in the energy industry. There isn't enough competition,

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Which? Has just brought out figures recently showing that overcharging

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has cost consumers £3.9 billion. What we're trying to ensure is

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there is more rigorous competition, and you have a market working for

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people. I don't think that is an anti-business thing at all. If you

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want a God functioning competitive market, you have got to make -- a

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good functioning competitive market you have to make sure there is

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rigorous competition and the consumer is getting a fair deal.

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You are going to sit there and tell us there will be guaranteed no

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consequences for such a cap. You can guarantee that the lights will

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definitely remain on, and businesses will continue to invest

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in the way they have been previously investing? Well look the

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fact is if you look at investment, the majority of investment hasn't

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been in terms of developing our energy need. The majority of

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investment has not been coming from the big six. Now the reason that we

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are seeking to do this price freeze is to allow us time to put in place

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a new regulatory architecture, we said we will abolish Ofgem. This

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will allow 20 months for us to put in place to replace it to sort out

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the energy market to get a better deal for viewers. Ultimately you

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are talking about what this means for businesses. If people are being

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squeezed they are not spending money in our businesses. We need to

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ensure, not only as I said people are seeing their pay go further, as

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the economy rises, the proceeds of that will be shared by more people

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the economy rises, the proceeds of not just the top 1%, that is a good

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thing for businesses. If you are were watching last night, if you

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could see through the rainforest which our Australian director

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imagines to be what a conservatory looks like. You will be familiar

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with the idea if Labour wants to win the next election it has to

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appeal to people who have conservatories or aspire to have

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them. There is another set of beliefs that Labour doesn't need to

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do any such thing, that it can just rely on the core votes, 35% or so

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of the electorate. Ed Miliband doesn't need to look good in

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Dorking as long as he gets the vote out in Dalston.

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What proportion of the vote does Ed Miliband need to become Prime

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Minister? The answer is, it depends. It depends on what the other

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parties do. Our starting point has to be the position that the parties

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were in the 2010 general election and to jog our memories we have

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written the results over there on the sea over there.

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That was their worst showing since Michael Foot was leader.

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So that is how they were. A lot has changed since then. Since being in

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Government the Lib Dems have paid a big electoral price for their

:12:42.:12:45.

coalition with the Conservatives. Their vote has gone down by more

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than half. Have those votes gone to Labour, we ask? And the Tories have

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had their own problems, UKIP has taken 10-11% of the votes at the

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moment. Mash all that together and it could mean that Ed Miliband gets

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to Downing Street with 35% of the popular vote. It is quite possible

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for Labour to be the largest party on around 35% of the vote. It

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for Labour to be the largest party wouldn't have an outright majority

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on that, it would need to coalition with the liberals or some other

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arrangement, to win outright it needs 38-40%. But 35% could just

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arrangement, to win outright it make Ed Miliband Prime Minister.

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There is a long way to the next general election, and Ed Miliband

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isn't about to kick back in a deck chair and hope nothing changes,

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afterall the UKIP vote could collapse, the Lib Dems could

:13:31.:13:34.

recover and then he would be in trouble. No, what he's doing is

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pursuing a demographic he thinks can add to his core vote without

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alienating his core voters. Who are these precious people? Young

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families with children. For a start this group notices Government

:13:48.:13:52.

policy more in matters like health and education, plus, pollsters say

:13:52.:13:56.

they have fewer political loyalties, meaning they are up for grabs. We

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can see how Labour is trying to engage them, policies on child

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cautious wrap-around school hours, more house building. Don't expect

:14:08.:14:11.

the coalition to leave Labour to it, they are making their own pitch for

:14:11.:14:16.

this important demographic. Last week Nick Clegg promising free

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school meals and the help on buying housing. The next election could be

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decided on who gets the best policies to attract young families

:14:25.:14:28.

with children. Here to assess what Ed Miliband's

:14:28.:14:31.

speech can tell us about Labour's election strategy we have the

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deputy editor of the New Statesman Helen Lewis, and from the

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independent on Sunday, John Rentoul, who do you think he was talking to?

:14:39.:14:43.

He was talking to the Labour Party in the hall. To a large extent.

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Obviously he was addressing the nation, you always have to address

:14:48.:14:59.

two audiences at once. I think he was. Chuka Umunna didn't like the

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left-wing terms but he was addressing them outside. Did you

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feel he was going for the core vote? No I don't think he did, the

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energy section was intended to, in focus groups that goes very well,

:15:09.:15:13.

people are really concerned about energy prices. Maybe you might

:15:13.:15:17.

remember the 1970s? No policy is without risk. They have decided to

:15:17.:15:20.

pick this fight, it is one they think they can win. That is what

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politics is about, it is about picking fights. It is a fight that

:15:24.:15:27.

suggests that the Labour Party doesn't understand business it

:15:27.:15:31.

doesn't understand markets and profit motive, it doesn't approve

:15:31.:15:36.

of the profit motive. It is just, it may have a superficial appeal,

:15:36.:15:42.

but if people think that the Labour Party doesn't understand business

:15:42.:15:46.

and how you make wealth in this country. Your analysis there is to

:15:46.:15:49.

the right of the Conservative Party, David Cameron acknowledges there is

:15:50.:15:52.

a problem with the energy market and having talks with the

:15:52.:15:55.

significant six energy companies, he has a vague wafflely plan about

:15:55.:16:00.

offering the lowest tarrif, this is concrete action on that. He

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understands focus groups complain about energy prices, of course they

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do, that doesn't mean that focus groups, once they have had a chance

:16:08.:16:11.

to think about it think you can defy the laws of supply and demand.

:16:11.:16:15.

It doesn't matter, if you are successful in forming a Government,

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if you make a successful calculation, once you get to

:16:18.:16:20.

Government it really doesn't matter what people think? You have to get

:16:21.:16:24.

into Government. In order to get into Government there is no use in

:16:24.:16:28.

just appealing to people who have a very simplistic idea of how the

:16:28.:16:31.

economy work, you have it appeal to the centre ground to people who

:16:31.:16:37.

actually understand aspiration and wealth making. Conservatory owners,

:16:37.:16:41.

obviously? Who will recognise, even if they complain about energy

:16:41.:16:45.

prices that price freezes on the big six companies is just not going

:16:45.:16:49.

to work. I think people can be guilty of applying different

:16:49.:16:52.

standards to Labour, you are already hearing complaints about

:16:52.:16:55.

the free childcare and the free breakfast club, which you just

:16:55.:16:58.

didn't hear around the Lib Dems and their plan for free school meals,

:16:58.:17:01.

there is a big problem around Labour that everybody instantly

:17:01.:17:05.

jumps to where is the money? The other thing is, there were two

:17:05.:17:08.

things they were being taxed with before this conference began, one

:17:08.:17:12.

was shortage of policies, the other was Ed Miliband does not look like

:17:13.:17:17.

a Prime Minister. Now do you think, let's deal with the second one,

:17:17.:17:20.

does he look like a Prime Minister? I think that there is a huge

:17:20.:17:23.

advantage in being Prime Minister that you get to stand in front of

:17:23.:17:25.

the door and that automatically makes you look like a Prime

:17:25.:17:28.

Minister, he doesn't have that. I thought that was a confident

:17:28.:17:31.

performance, I thought even the panto bits which are normally full-

:17:31.:17:37.

body cringe were fine. He was self- deprecate, he charged through the

:17:37.:17:40.

things he knows are a problem, I thought it was confident. I was

:17:40.:17:44.

suffering from a full-body cringe almost for all 63 minutes. I mean

:17:44.:17:48.

you know it is an unfair question as to whether he looks like a Prime

:17:48.:17:51.

Minister. He could be Prime Minister, he would be a slightly

:17:51.:17:54.

peculiar one. What do you mean? Well, I mean he had this odd line

:17:54.:18:00.

about the troops in Afghanistan saying some of them were young

:18:00.:18:04.

enough to be his children. He was trying to remind us he's not as

:18:04.:18:11.

young as he looks. He does look young and inexperienced, even

:18:11.:18:14.

though he's one of the most experienced politicians in Britain

:18:14.:18:16.

today. The Kenyan President said this

:18:16.:18:20.

evening that the outrage and hostage taking at the shopping mall

:18:20.:18:24.

in his capital is over. We have ashamed and defeated the attackers,

:18:24.:18:28.

claiming that security forces had shot five of them dead and detained

:18:28.:18:34.

11 others. Over 60 further people have been killed. Whether the thing

:18:34.:18:39.

is over is unclear, as is the precise identity of the attackers.

:18:40.:18:44.

The Foreign Ministry say they included a British woman. From the

:18:44.:18:50.

information that we have two or three Americans and I think so far

:18:50.:18:54.

I have heard of one Brit. The Brit was a British-born woman? A woman.

:18:54.:19:00.

She's I think done this many times before. And the Americans? The

:19:00.:19:07.

Americans from the information we have are young men. Richard Watson

:19:07.:19:13.

who knows a great deal about Al- Shabab and indeed other Islamic or

:19:13.:19:18.

Islamist organisations is with us now. Tell us about this White

:19:18.:19:25.

Widow? It is a reference to Matthew Leuenberger, a British convert to

:19:25.:19:36.

laem Amanda Lewthwaite, she's wantedor connections with others

:19:36.:19:41.

facing terrorism trials in Mombasa. Samantha was married to one of the

:19:41.:19:48.

7/7 bombers, Ellen Linstead, back in 2005. A source close to the

:19:48.:19:54.

original police investigation said they did look losely at Samantha

:19:54.:20:03.

Lewthwait EBacc in 2005 and they didn't find anything to suggest she

:20:03.:20:12.

was aware of her husband's murdous intentions. Could she be involved?

:20:12.:20:16.

The media is speculating very much about it today. Security forces are

:20:16.:20:20.

steering away from firm conclusions on it at the moment. They say there

:20:20.:20:31.

is precedent in Somalia of women getting involved in these suicide

:20:31.:20:36.

bombing. Usually females take part in these attacks, give logistic

:20:36.:20:42.

support, courier services or surveillance. What about the wider

:20:42.:20:45.

picture of westerners being involved in this sort of thing?

:20:45.:20:51.

Well this is what's very troubling for western security agencies. It

:20:51.:20:57.

is surpbtly assessed that 50 British nationals went out to

:20:57.:21:01.

Somalia to fight Al-Shabab. They post videos on-line, and some

:21:01.:21:03.

feature very strong British accents. A far greater number have travelled

:21:03.:21:23.

from America compared with Great Britain. A month ago a video was

:21:23.:21:27.

released on-line, featuring the stories of three young men from

:21:27.:21:31.

Minnesota, who travelled out to join Al-Shabab and died out there

:21:31.:21:38.

in fighting. The FBI began to investigate the cases, some of the

:21:38.:21:43.

young mujahideen were already active on the battlefields of Jihad,

:21:43.:21:49.

and relishing in the freedom to practice all the tenets of their

:21:49.:21:52.

and relishing in the freedom to face, including Jihad against the

:21:52.:21:59.

disbelievers. Thank you very much Richard.

:21:59.:22:07.

Now, it being just before 11.00pm, the future of the planet. On Friday

:22:08.:22:11.

we will hear what the world's most authoritative report has to say

:22:11.:22:15.

about climate change. So it is the moment for last-minute political

:22:15.:22:19.

wrangling. Scientists say they are more certain than ever about some

:22:19.:22:25.

aspects of climate change, but, and it is a critical but, there are

:22:25.:22:29.

fast things they don't know about how climate work. That will give

:22:29.:22:34.

ammunition to all those who say the whole phenomenon is greatly

:22:34.:22:39.

overblown. First this is about what we are likely to learn this week.

:22:39.:22:42.

Scientists say the planet is we are likely to learn this week.

:22:42.:22:45.

warming, and each and every one of us is playing a part in that.

:22:45.:22:51.

Friday's report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

:22:51.:22:55.

Change, the IPCC is the work of hundreds of experts. It is the

:22:55.:23:00.

first of a trilogy, this one on the state of climate science, the

:23:00.:23:03.

second and third come next year and look at likely impacts and what

:23:03.:23:08.

might be done about those. The report itself will be a huge

:23:08.:23:12.

technical tone, but it is the distillation of that, a summary for

:23:12.:23:16.

policy makers that will be chewed over and tweaked with Government

:23:16.:23:20.

officials alongside scientists in Stockholm this week. This is a

:23:20.:23:23.

final draft of that report, and it matters because it will form the

:23:23.:23:30.

basis of policy in future. The final draft says it is extremely

:23:30.:23:36.

likely that IPCC speak for 95% certain, that human influence on

:23:36.:23:40.

climate caused more than half the observed increase in global average

:23:40.:23:45.

surface temperatures from 1951-2010. But the report is expected to state

:23:45.:23:50.

clearly where there are gaps in knowledge or uncertainties. The

:23:50.:23:55.

most pressing of which is arguably the called slowdown or pause. The

:23:55.:23:59.

fact that global surface temperatures have not risen above

:23:59.:24:03.

the level recorded in 1998. For the last 15 years. How much is the plan

:24:03.:24:10.

the warming? In this graph the red area shows computer simulations of

:24:10.:24:14.

the global average temperature. The white line shows what is being

:24:14.:24:18.

recorded, with temperatures rising in recent years. In 1998, for

:24:18.:24:22.

reasons that scientists cannot yet explain, the warming paused. Those

:24:22.:24:28.

who are sceptical of climate science say this bolsters their

:24:28.:24:31.

position that the prevailing scientific view is wrong. It is one

:24:31.:24:35.

of the most fierce low debated areas of climate science.

:24:35.:24:39.

Many argue that the earth has turned to warm but that the heat

:24:39.:24:44.

has been absorbed by the oceans. There is a network of floating

:24:44.:24:51.

sensors on our oceans, even so data is incomplete. Half of the slowdown

:24:51.:24:58.

can be linked to the oceans, the other half to theing effect of

:24:58.:25:03.

volcanos and a less active sun. Scientists are not confident of the

:25:03.:25:07.

explanation. Over the last 150 years we have seen global

:25:07.:25:11.

temperatures increase by 0.8 degrees centigrade. In the last 15

:25:11.:25:15.

years temperatures haven't warmed warmed very much. It is a puzzle,

:25:15.:25:19.

we want to know why. We are beginning to understand the reasons

:25:19.:25:24.

why. But it is important to see the recent cause in the wider context

:25:24.:25:29.

of the problem, global surface temperatures are not the only

:25:29.:25:32.

of the problem, global surface important metric of climate change.

:25:32.:25:38.

We look to the seas rising, we see the ieds melting away. Then there

:25:38.:25:44.

is the model, scientists rely heavily on computer models

:25:44.:25:51.

attempting to forecast. There is high level of confidence that these

:25:51.:25:54.

have done a good job of modelling the warming of the second half of

:25:54.:25:58.

the 20th century. But not the pause in global surface temperatures of

:25:58.:26:03.

the past 15 years. Are the climate models wrong, and has climate

:26:03.:26:09.

change stopped. No, climate change has not stopped, we see similar

:26:09.:26:12.

pauses, like in the observations, what we understand is that on the

:26:12.:26:18.

one hand we have a warming influence from increasing

:26:18.:26:20.

greenhouse gases. On the other hand we have a cooling influence from

:26:20.:26:24.

small volcanic eruptions and a small decloin in solar activity.

:26:24.:26:32.

The third important -- declining in solar activity. As these temporary

:26:32.:26:36.

cooling factors subside the warming will come again. For the first time

:26:36.:26:41.

the report is expected to set out a carbon budget, the total reached

:26:41.:26:46.

across the globe we must stay below for any temperature rise to be less

:26:46.:26:53.

than 2 degrees, compared to industrial times. This is agreed by

:26:53.:26:55.

Government, and the draft says to have a reasonable chance of

:26:55.:26:59.

achieving this the total amount of carbon to be released is the

:26:59.:27:02.

equivalent of a trillion tonnes. We have already released half of that.

:27:02.:27:08.

Here I have eight little lumps of coal, each one representing 2500

:27:08.:27:14.

billion tonnes of fossil carbon. Before the fossil regulation, we

:27:14.:27:18.

had four million tonnes, eight lumps of goal underground, 250

:27:18.:27:26.

years to burn the first half trillion. Set for the next half in

:27:26.:27:30.

years to burn the first half three-to-five years, and the next

:27:30.:27:36.

part will take us over the argument. So the really big question is what

:27:36.:27:43.

will we do when all the carbon available underground waiting to be

:27:43.:27:46.

burned. The report is expected to describe clear signals of human

:27:46.:27:50.

influence on the climate. But with the higher extremes of warming now

:27:50.:27:54.

thought less likely, they will be scoping the detail for sceptics to

:27:54.:27:58.

argue that the case for climate change has been overstated and more

:27:58.:28:02.

clarity about uncertainties long overdue. With us is my guest to

:28:02.:28:16.

discuss that. Joining us from the University of Wisconsin we have the

:28:16.:28:19.

professor. It was suggested to us, not very

:28:19.:28:24.

long ago that the science of all this was settled, it is clearly not

:28:24.:28:29.

settled? Science is never settled of there was always open questions

:28:29.:28:34.

in science to further understand and as was highlighted in Susan's

:28:34.:28:37.

in science to further understand report there, there is exciting

:28:37.:28:40.

research questions to look at. But what is clear is that humans are

:28:40.:28:44.

having a significant influence on the climate and that is creating

:28:44.:28:51.

significant risks associated with changes to our weather systems, be

:28:51.:28:56.

that in the UK, the flods that we have seen in recent years -- floods

:28:56.:29:00.

we have seen in recent years, or heatwaves or risks to coastal

:29:00.:29:05.

infrastructure from sea level rises and storms. Not as extreme as

:29:05.:29:12.

predicted? As Susan mentioned in her report there are interesting

:29:12.:29:17.

questions as to what has happened to temperature over the last 15

:29:17.:29:23.

years or so. There is a lot of research looking into that. As

:29:23.:29:30.

clearly described, what is occurring is we have an underlying

:29:30.:29:37.

as a result of increases in greenhouse gas, and as a result

:29:37.:29:39.

there are fluctuations. You could see in the graph put up of the

:29:39.:29:48.

temperature over the 100 years there are times when the

:29:48.:29:51.

temperature has not gone up, but in fits and starts. It is like the

:29:51.:29:54.

stock market, things are up as well fits and starts. It is like the

:29:54.:29:58.

as down, but the overlying trend is one of an increase. What do you

:29:58.:30:09.

conclude from the the latest review, is the science settled? No, I don't

:30:09.:30:15.

believe the science is settled. I believe that there is a lot of

:30:15.:30:17.

things we don't understand and that believe that there is a lot of

:30:17.:30:21.

we need to concentrate more in understanding the natural climate

:30:21.:30:28.

system. Your guest just mentions, yes there is an underlying, slowly

:30:28.:30:34.

rising signal which is attributed by many to CO2 emission. On top of

:30:34.:30:42.

that superimposeed we have positive and negative trend regimes for

:30:42.:30:47.

global temperatures. What we see now is simply another one of those

:30:47.:30:51.

ray genomes, actually we were the first ones to identify it six years

:30:51.:31:05.

ago. It is not due to areosols and the fight between CO 2., it is the

:31:05.:31:09.

incertainly climate system, we have documented it in several

:31:09.:31:12.

publications and it is widely accepted. Doesn't the precautionary

:31:12.:31:16.

principle indicate that as you say, there has been an increase, would

:31:16.:31:21.

it not be sensible to take precautions? I'm not saying that we

:31:21.:31:26.

should not take precautions. When precautions? I'm not saying that we

:31:26.:31:35.

we claim that the warmth of the 1980s and 1990 has stopped. We

:31:36.:31:39.

simply say that the climate system has gone to a new regime where the

:31:39.:31:43.

temperature will level off or cool a little bit. It doesn't say that

:31:43.:31:52.

the low-rising long-term trend has been reversed. This is

:31:52.:31:59.

misunderstood. Now low-rising long- term trend is there, many think it

:31:59.:32:04.

is because of CO2 emissions, there is other possibilities. There is

:32:04.:32:08.

low circulation, there is all the activity, a combination of

:32:08.:32:10.

everything, we don't know for sure activity, a combination of

:32:10.:32:17.

what is the actual number. Wouldn't the sensible thing be to do is to

:32:17.:32:24.

hold our horses before we enter anything in hesitantly? That is

:32:24.:32:28.

what people are trying to play politics with the science are

:32:28.:32:34.

trying to some how manipulate by misrepresenting the state of the

:32:34.:32:38.

science. What the science is clear is if we can continue to equate

:32:38.:32:43.

greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we are significantly

:32:43.:32:47.

increasing the risk of severe weather events around the world. It

:32:47.:32:54.

is the risk we want to aed void. That matter of causation is still

:32:54.:33:01.

hypothesis. I'm not sure which bit. The fact it is caused by human

:33:01.:33:05.

activity, you could say they run in parallel but you can't prove it? No,

:33:05.:33:12.

the fact that if you put more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,

:33:12.:33:13.

that causes an increase in carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,

:33:13.:33:22.

temperature. That is very settled. Where there are open questions, as

:33:22.:33:26.

described in the report, associated with the fluctuations on top of

:33:26.:33:34.

that. That doesn't deny the fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse

:33:34.:33:39.

gas. Let me turn to Lord Stern, his influential report on the economics

:33:39.:33:43.

of climate change in 2006 helped to set the direction of Government

:33:43.:33:50.

policy. What do you conclude on the basis of what we know about the

:33:50.:33:54.

slightly lower pace of change? That we have a major problem of risk

:33:54.:33:59.

management and that the report that is just coming out on Friday has

:33:59.:34:05.

reaffirmed that there is a strong trend, that the risks are very

:34:05.:34:14.

large and this missing from the discussion so far is the weight and

:34:14.:34:20.

play. The dangers of delay happen if you wait you have a ratchet

:34:21.:34:25.

effect of greenhouse gases coming through from human active and

:34:25.:34:29.

raising the stock, the concentration that greenhouse gases

:34:29.:34:33.

are in the atmosphere with. It is a ratchet effect and it is hard to

:34:33.:34:37.

get the CO2 out. There is a second reason. If you wait you look in

:34:37.:34:45.

high-carbon infrastruck stuer and capital. It is not --

:34:45.:34:50.

infrastructure and capital. It is not that things aren't clear, they

:34:50.:34:53.

are very clear at the moment, but it is a dangerous strategy. If you

:34:53.:34:58.

were writing your report based on what we will learn on Friday, would

:34:58.:35:03.

you write the same report? I the science looks more risky than when

:35:03.:35:06.

we wrote the report. What do you mean by risky? Frpbgt the dangers

:35:06.:35:11.

of higher temperatures -- The dangers of higher temperatures

:35:11.:35:16.

coming through more quickly may be larger. The emissions were building

:35:16.:35:20.

up faster than we thought at the time. The emissions to greenhouse

:35:20.:35:24.

gases, some of the things have been happening faster than we thought.

:35:24.:35:30.

And some things slower? Basically most of the big things have been

:35:30.:35:33.

happening faster than we thought in terms it of those effects of global

:35:33.:35:38.

warming coming through. There has been a plateau for about 15 years,

:35:38.:35:45.

but that is the story of fluctuations and I thought the

:35:45.:35:49.

report and the doctor made very clear. You haven't heard today any

:35:49.:35:54.

reason to suppose, and you won't hear on Friday any reason to

:35:54.:35:58.

suppose that there is anything other than a strong underloiing

:35:58.:36:02.

trend. Your report made it seem like a matter of life and death

:36:02.:36:07.

urgency? It is, if we are to have a chance toled holeing two degrees,

:36:07.:36:11.

we are going to have to cut emissions radically. Global

:36:11.:36:16.

emissions by a factor of we will over two,000, two ,500, over the

:36:16.:36:24.

next few years. Despite the fact that it seems to have changed very

:36:24.:36:31.

likely -- light low, you are prepared to people there. The

:36:31.:36:37.

admissions have gone up five-times faster than we thought. And

:36:37.:36:40.

concentrations have too. Some of the effects, like the melting of

:36:40.:36:45.

glass Kerrs are coming through faster than I thought. You have a

:36:45.:36:50.

minor adjustment in the upper end of the possiblities, but you have

:36:50.:36:57.

other things happening that suggests those problems and the

:36:57.:37:04.

risks we described are there. Do you think you oversold it? I have

:37:04.:37:09.

undersold the story. I have given you big reasons why we should worry

:37:09.:37:15.

more. The the cuts coming through more quickly. There is something

:37:15.:37:20.

ols too which wasn't raised in the discussion of the science is the

:37:20.:37:25.

science models leave out some important risks which they can't

:37:25.:37:31.

really capture in the models yet. Which scientists know and could

:37:31.:37:33.

have a strong reason to suppose could be worrying. Two important

:37:33.:37:41.

ones, the thawing of the thermofrost and the release of

:37:41.:37:44.

methane, that could be a huge effect because of the vast qant

:37:44.:37:49.

toes of me tain, and seabed me tain -- quantities of me thain. Those

:37:49.:37:55.

are hard to capture in a formal way. But the scientists have strong

:37:55.:37:58.

reason to believe that those effects could be very big. You are

:37:58.:38:11.

a worried man, even since the report. Since then we have had the

:38:11.:38:17.

greenest Government ever do you think that? It is hard to sustain

:38:17.:38:21.

that proposition, let's be clear, they stuck to the climate change

:38:21.:38:30.

legislation we have the clear carbon budget associated with that

:38:30.:38:35.

legislation. But they have introduced some uncertainty in the

:38:35.:38:39.

degree of commitment. One of them is that they will review the fourth

:38:39.:38:42.

degree of commitment. One of them carbon budget, our targeting for

:38:42.:38:47.

the 2020s, that gives uncertainty. That kind of uncertainty is where

:38:47.:38:51.

they are going and restricting investment, it is a dampener on

:38:51.:38:55.

investment. Uncertainty about where Government policy is going has, I

:38:56.:39:00.

think, been created by this Government. For reasons I describe

:39:00.:39:07.

in reviewing the carbon budget, but it is revealed they are not united

:39:07.:39:13.

internally as well. That frightens investment away, that is why we

:39:14.:39:17.

have small margins of capacity in the UK. Left to its own devices

:39:17.:39:21.

nature will very often reassert itself, life goes on. In China

:39:21.:39:26.

human intervention has created a massive shortage of

:39:26.:40:02.

human intervention has created a expected to get hitched. In China

:40:02.:40:06.

the people get married in block, the brides wear simple costume and

:40:06.:40:13.

the bride groom in dark clothes. Traditional match makers used to do

:40:13.:40:19.

the job now mums and dads are playing Cupid. Every month public

:40:19.:40:24.

parks are filled by anxious parents, hawking what are effectively their

:40:24.:40:30.

children's CVs. Many look in advance and many are here without

:40:30.:40:35.

their son's knowledge. This mum, son to a young energy is keen to

:40:35.:40:39.

talk. Why is it so difficult to find someone to marry, you are good

:40:39.:40:45.

looking and have a good job? TRANSLATION: Thanks for the

:40:45.:40:49.

compliment. I think my prospects aren't that good. It would take me

:40:49.:40:54.

200 years to buy a department here, eating and drinking, just work.

:40:54.:41:06.

Lack of cash is one problem for would-be groom, the other is a

:41:06.:41:14.

critical shortage of women. In the late 70s the Chinese Government

:41:14.:41:19.

introduced the called one-child policy, designed to curb population

:41:19.:41:21.

growth, but it backfired. In policy, designed to curb population

:41:21.:41:25.

Chinese culture male children have always been more prized. Ultimately

:41:25.:41:32.

this led to a wave of illegal, sex- selective abortions and in extreme

:41:32.:41:38.

cases female infanticide. As a result analysts say that by the end

:41:38.:41:43.

of this decade there will be at least 24 million excess men. This

:41:43.:41:59.

is a mass speed dating event. If the girl accepts the red rose the

:41:59.:42:14.

man is allowed to sit down. The first thing that people do when

:42:14.:42:17.

they come to the matchmaking event is post their profile on the wall.

:42:17.:42:22.

You can see their candidate number, their age, their height which, is

:42:22.:42:26.

absolutely crucial here in China, and their education. This guy has

:42:26.:42:31.

been to university, he's a CEO, this man next to him a high school

:42:31.:42:37.

lever. TRANSLATION: There is a lot of competition, the girls are quite

:42:37.:42:45.

demanding and they prefer tall guys. Some girls rejected my rose because

:42:45.:42:55.

I wasn't their Mr Right. It is all a bit humiliating and

:42:55.:43:02.

time-consuming. That's why China's wealthiest bachelors contract out

:43:02.:43:06.

the search for a spouse. They employ a love-hunter! Peng Tai is

:43:06.:43:21.

taking me shopping, not for clothes, we're looking for girls.

:43:21.:43:29.

TRANSLATION: If I meet a very beautiful girl who meets

:43:29.:43:32.

requirements I will watch her for a very long time. I don't really care

:43:32.:43:35.

what the women think, this is what I do. It is my job. Basically I'm

:43:35.:43:46.

after those girls who have nice skin, nice white skin and above

:43:46.:43:51.

160cms in height. We certainly don't want one with a sour face. If

:43:51.:44:01.

he find his richest clients a miss right, he could earn ten -- a Miss

:44:01.:44:06.

Right, he could earn tens of thousands of pounds.

:44:06.:44:14.

But as his boss explains, these billionares are a picky bunch. One

:44:14.:44:19.

sent the love hunters to nine cities to trawl through 10,000

:44:19.:44:23.

girls. TRANSLATION: We have clients asking

:44:24.:44:27.

for the girl to look like celebrities, such as the lead

:44:27.:44:36.

actress in the film crouching tiger hidden dragon. Someone else wanted

:44:36.:44:41.

the girl who looked like one of the country's top TV presenters.

:44:41.:44:46.

This village in the mountainous south is a world away from the

:44:46.:44:50.

maddening crowds of the Meg ga cities.

:44:51.:44:57.

These men aged 30 and 28 are both unmatter he had I don't. Across

:44:57.:45:02.

China there are more and more villages like theirs, filled with

:45:02.:45:08.

single men, they call them "bare branch" because they can't continue

:45:08.:45:23.

the family tree. TRANSLATION: The girls look forward for a better

:45:23.:45:26.

life in the city, they can marry out. For us boys it is different,

:45:27.:45:34.

we have to carry on the family name. Marriage is traditionally the

:45:34.:45:38.

symbol of maturity in China, many don't treat unmarried men as adults,

:45:38.:45:45.

regardless of their age. TRANSLATION: I don't want to come

:45:45.:45:49.

home sometimes, once I get back here they keep saying you are owed

:45:49.:45:54.

enough now, why don't you find a girlfriend. At one extreme of

:45:54.:46:06.

China's atomised society, men can pick or choose their mate, at the

:46:06.:46:10.

other end, back in the bachelor villages, there is no plaus at all.

:46:11.:46:21.

It is the shortage of brides that could undermine China's future.

:46:21.:46:33.

More of that report on Our World on the BBC News channel at 9.30 on

:46:33.:46:38.

Saturday night. Time for one last piece of news from the UN in New

:46:39.:46:44.

York. As we went on air, Hassan Rouhani of Iran has told the UN

:46:44.:46:49.

General Assembly that Iran is prepared to engage in nuclear

:46:49.:46:54.

negotiations that are time-bound and results orientated. He said

:46:54.:46:59.

that nuclear weapons and other weapons of weapons of mass

:46:59.:47:01.

destruction weapons of mass destruction and -- other weapons of

:47:01.:47:10.

mass destruction, and he said nothing can't be resolved without a

:47:10.:47:16.

rejection of violence. There is no meeting with President Obama and

:47:16.:47:19.

the world's picture editors will have to wait for the historic

:47:19.:47:23.

handshake. That is it for tonight, no question which were the most

:47:24.:47:27.

watchable pictures to emerge from the conference today. It happened

:47:27.:47:33.

when Damian McBride's pubisher took exception to a protestor trying to

:47:33.:47:36.

get into the back of an interview with the man. Sussex Police are

:47:36.:47:41.

taking a dim view, apparently. It is not the first and it won't be

:47:41.:47:45.

the last time that the background is more interesting than the

:47:45.:47:51.

foreground. David Cameron will become Prime Minister in the next

:47:51.:47:56.

few days, probably on Friday and Saturday. The parent company of

:47:56.:48:00.

Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy as the subsidiaries

:48:00.:48:05.

basically wind down. Police say they hope somebody burdened with

:48:05.:48:09.

information. Tell me more about Michael Jackson. Knock it off. Full

:48:09.:48:13.

of Andy Murray fans.

:48:13.:48:16.

Labour want to freeze energy prices. Will it work? More on the Kenya killings. Climate change. How to get a girlfriend in China. With Jeremy Paxman.


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