13/11/2013 Newsnight


13/11/2013

The dark internet and what can be bought on it, the Syrians who have fled because of Al Qaeda rule, David Miliband and Christmas ads.


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On Newsnight tonight, the dark side of the internet. We visit some of

:00:09.:00:15.

the sites where money can buy you anything. Guns, drugs, even an

:00:16.:00:23.

assassination. We talk to the former Foreign Secretary, Ed Miliband about

:00:24.:00:30.

disasters and the David Miliband and about disasters and the threat they

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pose. Immediately at the same time after the threat of sanitation and

:00:36.:00:42.

difficulties, there is an increased threat of violence against women, to

:00:43.:00:45.

turn away from that would be wrong. The Syrians who have had to feed

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their country not because of war, but because parts of it are now run

:00:49.:00:56.

by Al-Qaeda. And can it really be worthwhile for

:00:57.:01:01.

supermarkets and department stores to spend a fortune on Christmas

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marketing like this. First tonight, who says the media

:01:15.:01:18.

don't report good news? 177,000 more people have jobs now than was the

:01:19.:01:23.

case three months ago. Employment is growing much faster than the Bank of

:01:24.:01:27.

England predicted. The governor of the bank has said he doesn't expect

:01:28.:01:31.

interest rates to rise until unemployment falls below 7%. But

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that now looks as if it will happen much sooner than had been predicted.

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As early as this time next year perhaps. Who dare raise interest

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rates in the current climate. It doesn't seem like a good moment to

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hold your breath. If you order chicken and chips at the new

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low-opened franchise in Streatham Hill in south London, you will serve

:01:59.:02:03.

by someone who has been through long-term unemployment. Before

:02:04.:02:07.

opening in June the new owner faced difficulties in finding staff, he

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went to the welfare-to-work firm A4e, which had no shortage of

:02:12.:02:16.

willing friars. All of his new staff were long-term unemployed and some

:02:17.:02:20.

hadn't worked for years. How long were you out of work for? About a

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year. What was that like? Getting up in the day and nothing to do really.

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What to do? There was only so many times can you apply for a job like

:02:30.:02:33.

that. You go out and you look for work you get a bit disheartened and

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you go out and the position is filled or not enough experience, or

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whatever reason, it weren't nice, it was horrible. How about your income,

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how has that changed? It is difficult, before you used to have a

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budget of ?70 and now I have got much bigger budget, I find it really

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quite difficult to know what to do with my money now. Save it? Save it

:02:57.:03:02.

and that and go to the cinema and that, Christmas coming up everybody

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will be very happy now, nice Christmas present each one. Youth

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unemployment fell by 9,000 to 965,000 in the three months to the

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end of September. While those without a job for more than a year

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fell to 890,000, overall unemployment was down 48,000 over

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three months and by more than a quarter of a million over a year.

:03:24.:03:27.

That is the biggest annual drop since the 1990s, the rate is now

:03:28.:03:33.

7.6%. Good news, you would have thought, and the Governor of the

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Bank of England thinks so. For the first time in a long time you don't

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have to be an optimist to see the glass is half full. The recovery has

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finally taken hold. The governor's glass may be half full by the City's

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is half empty, that is because Mark Carney has given forward guidance

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and said as long as unemployment is above 7% interest rates won't rise.

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The City has taken it the other way round saying if unemployment gets

:04:00.:04:02.

below that interest rates will rise. In this way the City takes good

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economic news, if it is too good in a very bad way. So when might rates

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rise? In August Mark Carney didn't expect unemployment to get to 7% for

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three years. Now the Bank of England forecast it is as likely as not to

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hit 7% just a year from now. That's rattled the financial markets which

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used to ignore unemployment numbers. Now they worry an early rate rise

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will cause investors to sell bond, hitting the value of hundreds of

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billions of investments. Who wants a Government bond paying tiny interest

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rates when rates are about to go up. Bonds have been very strong for 15

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years now, really on the back of having low interest rates for such a

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long time. And that can come under pressure. The likelihood of an

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earlier rate rise boosted the pound, but should make imports cheaper but

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exports more expensive for foreign customers, the markets are we aried

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about the recovery and share prices took a tumble. With 7,000 jobs

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created in three months, the economy is heating up quickly. With the Bank

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of England giving evens on a rate rise it is likely to be a year

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before the general election. Not that it will bother Mark.

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Here now is our guest, an external member of the Bank of England's

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Monetary Policy Committee, and Gillian Tett from the Financial

:05:28.:05:31.

Times. This is good news isn't it? It is pretty good news actually.

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Tempered by some not quite so good news. We didn't really expect this

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big fall in unemployment. That is good, but wages are the bad story.

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You think it is pretty good news? I think it is good news, it does take

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a chirpy north American to telling us all that the glass is half full

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not half empty. We Brits are used to the half empty. It is certainly

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encouraging. Is it sustainable, that is the big question? That is indeed

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the big question for two reasons, firstly, the question everybody

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should be asking is this increase in jobs and wealth actually leading to

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a broad-base feel-food factor or is it concentrated in small niches of

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the economy. Places like London are booming, if you get outside London

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it is a different picture. Secondly, unfortunately the bank is in a trap

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that it has indicated that interest rates may be going up much faster

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than people expect? I was going to come to that in a second or two, do

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you think it is sustainable? No I don't, if you think of the

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components of growth. Nice for you to be cheerful? I will tell you the

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truth. Components of growth are you need investment rising, that is not

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happening, trade rising, that is not happening. Real wages aren't rising,

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they are falling, and the only way we are getting consumers to spend is

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by taking their savings, because they think house prices are going to

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boom. So we have gone out of boom and bust, and we have come to a new

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situation where we have a boom coming which eventually will end in

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a bust. So the answer it is not sustainable. Especially if interest

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rates were to rise. Let's engage with Gillian's point that she was

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beginning to make there, which is what Mark Carney has said about

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interest rates? I'm not as gloomy as David. But I do think the question

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of interest rates is critical. We are starting to see house prices

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rising fast, it is striking this is coming not after sharp house price

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falls. In America you are seeing a rebound in housing prices but there

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has been a very sharp downturn first. So the question of whether it

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is sustainable in the housing market is a big one. Unfortunately the UK

:07:37.:07:41.

is much more exposed to swings of interest rates in terms of mortgage

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payments than other countries. So if interest rates do go up sooner than

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people expect the impact could really be pretty nasty. He has boxed

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himself in hasn't he? Both the Chancellor and the Governor of the

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Bank of England are boxed in. We start from a position in the housing

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market where house price-to-earnings ratios are about five, where at many

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places in the past that is the peak where the thing bursts, this doesn't

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look sustainable. Our problem is everybody has variable rate

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mortgages. I came off the plane yesterday and there was an advert

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saying you can get a mortgage rate base rate plus one. 49%, you take

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the mortgage and the bank starts to raise rates, that kills house prices

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people can't afford to pay their mortgages and that boom we have just

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seen is not sustainable. The problem is that if, despite the fact that

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people say interest rates are going to rise, if they rise they wipe out

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so many people. Listeners to this programme could suddenly think what

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would happen to my mortgage if interest rates went from a half per

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cent to two to four. The problem the bank has unless we get sustained

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growth they can't raise rates for a really long time. We should surely

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accept, and lots of people said George Osborne would never pull this

:08:54.:08:57.

sort of achievement off? I think that certainly George Osborne has

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some reason to feel not just relieved but also pretty pleased

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tonight. Whether you are going to argue whether that glass is half

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full or empty, it is much better or fuller than we expected a year or

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two ago. But unfortunately as David says the sustainability question is

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key. And very key given the timing of the next election. I hope that

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certainly this general rising in animal spirits starts to create more

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incentives to invest, as David says, and actually get a more sustainable

:09:26.:09:30.

pattern of growth, but it is still uncertain if we are going to see

:09:31.:09:33.

anything that will last and see interest rates go up in the future.

:09:34.:09:37.

Well, yes, in some sense we have had quite a fast lap. Unfortunately over

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the last three years the UK was lapped three or four times by all

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the other countries. So yes we have a small burst of growth, but

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actually the level of output that we have is about 3% lower than it

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should have been if we hadn't imposed this austerity. We start

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from a level of recession or output which is the worst recession in 100

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years, we still have to get two. 5% growth to get us back to the

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starting level of output, we are 66 months in, if you can compare it to

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the Great Depression. That was over in 48 months. So yes, we have a nice

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little burst of growth, but we should really understand that the

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economy is basically much lower than it should have been. What would you

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do if you were Mark Carney now? I think he has done pretty well. He

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has been probably quite lucky. He wasn't really going to be drawn on

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the question of when rates were going to rise. He's going to follow

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what the US has done and follow the data. He's not going to say to us on

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the #rd 3rd of January 3015 he will change rates. He will say we will

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watch how the economy is doing and then we will command to that. What

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we are hearing is people interpreting what he says. We need

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to watch the data, I suspect the data, this little blip may continue

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for a while, in the end it doesn't look sustainable. One thing he has

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created is this obsession with the unemployment rate. Nothing is

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bulletproof, there are always big questions around labour market data,

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but by folk cutsing so heavily on it is -- focussing so heavily on it is

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he has indicated that the bank cares about the pat RN of growth and has a

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conscious. But boxing yourself into one set of numbers means creating

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this trap you are in today. If unemployment falls faster than

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people expect, for reasons other than fundamental growth, shifts in

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the labour market data and the hours people are working, the bank finds

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itself in a position where people expect it to raise interest rates

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faster than it wants to. You must come back on another morale-lowering

:11:46.:11:52.

visit! The The British people have given ?13

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million in under 24 hours to help the victims of the storm in the

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Philippines. Some aid is beginning to reach survivors, those delivering

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it have been astonished by the extent and severity of the damage

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caused by the storm. The former Foreign Secretary and nearly leader

:12:11.:12:15.

of the Labour Party, David Miliband left mainstream politics here to run

:12:16.:12:19.

the International Rescue committee in New York. He was in London today

:12:20.:12:24.

dealing with the violence against women occurring during humanitarian

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crisis. I went to talk to him about that and talk about Sri Lanka,

:12:30.:12:34.

despite its human rights record a visit.

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David Miliband why is the tragedy in the Philippines any business of

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ours? Our common ity is stirred when you see people in desperate

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circumstances. Obviously the first response is for the Government of

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the pill even if, but for the British and western charitable

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response down the agencies has been born of common humanity. That is my

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interest. The difference with previous ages is we can see it now.

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Don't you think there is an argument now that says we have to learn to

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harden our hearts because "acts of God" are happening? I think that a

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hardening of heart is a miserable life. The essence of being a human

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being is helping other human beings not that you stand and walk away. I

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think there is a real issue in the world today. If you like it is a

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sort of double pull that is going on. One pull is parts of the world

:13:33.:13:36.

that are either undergoverned or suffering from lack of prop

:13:37.:13:39.

governance. Not really thinking about the Philippines in that

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circumstances, but in Syria, Somalia and elsewhere. It is problems that

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seem unbelievably complex and insoluable, and on the other hand a

:13:51.:13:54.

western world turning in on itself. That is a dangerous combination,

:13:55.:13:57.

allied to a hardening of heart the world will become more unstable and

:13:58.:14:01.

unequal. What is dangerous about it? About what? This insularity that is

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taking place in the west and the growth of inEPT or incompetent or

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absent governance? Precisely because we are a more connected world, there

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is an instrumental and moral argument there. The polio outbreak

:14:18.:14:21.

in Syria at the moment is not going to be confined within the governance

:14:22.:14:26.

of Syria that it started in. You are here to take part in a conference on

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proEKT itting girls -- protecting girls and women, a lot of people

:14:31.:14:34.

will be surprised that such a conference is necessary in the

:14:35.:14:43.

context of a Clamity that has taken place? I have learned this in my new

:14:44.:14:47.

job, there are enDEMic violence against women in all societies. It

:14:48.:14:50.

turns out there is a plague of violence against women in Emergency

:14:51.:14:55.

Situations. Both those worn of conflict and Civil War but also

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natural disaster, the evidence from Haiti, the Pakistani floods. From a

:15:00.:15:06.

range of experience that we have, the Sierra Leone conflict, places

:15:07.:15:10.

where the International Rescue committee has worked in. It has

:15:11.:15:16.

booed two or three times in emergencies. A natural calamity can

:15:17.:15:25.

unleash forces of bash BOURism latent in human society. What can an

:15:26.:15:31.

aid agency do to restrain that? Let me give you a practical example,

:15:32.:15:36.

women having torches so when they go to the toilet they are able to have

:15:37.:15:41.

light around them, that is important. When our experience both

:15:42.:15:46.

in refugee camps and outside them is those kinds of practical measures

:15:47.:15:50.

that give a bit of power to women, can make a difference. It is also

:15:51.:15:55.

extraordinary, even after a terrible act of sexual violence or other kind

:15:56.:16:00.

of violence, being able to address the trauma that women have suffered

:16:01.:16:07.

means that they might not be pregnant or becoming HIV-positive,

:16:08.:16:10.

but also they can rebuild their lives. Both on the prevention and

:16:11.:16:14.

treatment side. There is no easy answer, but you say what business is

:16:15.:16:18.

it of aid agencies, the business is it is 52% of the population, they

:16:19.:16:21.

are extra exposed in emergencies and we can make a difference. But you

:16:22.:16:26.

have your work cut out there haven't you? The feeling when you see people

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dying in the Philippines or going hungry or suffering in Syria or

:16:31.:16:34.

wherever it is in the world, there is a natural fellow feeling, it is

:16:35.:16:39.

there but for the grace of good go I. Very few people can imagine

:16:40.:16:44.

perpetrating sexual violence in those circumstances? It is really

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hard to come to terms with the fact that protecting people from sexual

:16:50.:16:52.

violence is not a luxury in an emergency, it is a necessity. But

:16:53.:16:56.

what we have learned over the years it is. The first priority in the

:16:57.:17:01.

Philippines now is undoubtedly about water and sanitation and other

:17:02.:17:04.

diseases. But immediately, at the same time, we know that there is an

:17:05.:17:08.

increase threat of violence against women. To neglect that and to turn

:17:09.:17:16.

our minds of eyes away from it, it would be wrong. If you were Prime

:17:17.:17:20.

Minister or Foreign Secretary would you be going to the Commonwealth

:17:21.:17:23.

conference in Sri Lanka? It is really hard for me, I have spoken up

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very powerfully on this. I'm in a difficult position, and let me

:17:30.:17:35.

explain it to you. We work with not just Governments around the world.

:17:36.:17:40.

We have an office in STLI lank KA. -- Sri Lanka, we are trying to make

:17:41.:17:43.

a difference across communal lines there. I do have very strong views

:17:44.:17:50.

about the Sri Lanka issue. With the current position and the duty of

:17:51.:17:53.

care I have to my own staff I have to be extremely careful about

:17:54.:17:57.

becoming a commentator on political affairs. If people keep taking that

:17:58.:18:03.

line and cop out, as it were, these Governments are immune? I think it

:18:04.:18:07.

is a really powerful point that in the end the humanitarian world can

:18:08.:18:11.

staunch the dying, but it takes politics to stop the killing. And

:18:12.:18:15.

that's what we face in Syria, that is what we face in civil wars around

:18:16.:18:21.

the world, and that is the fact of life. That is why politics remains,

:18:22.:18:26.

has primacy in a lot of these societies. Equally the humanitarian

:18:27.:18:31.

sector has shown how it can innovate and lead politics in various ways.

:18:32.:18:35.

What you see in the Middle East at the moment is the humanitarian

:18:36.:18:39.

catastrophe is actually affecting politics. The politics in Lebanon,

:18:40.:18:42.

where one in four of the population is now a refugee, the politics in

:18:43.:18:46.

Jordan where it is the equivalent of the whole of Poland moving to

:18:47.:18:52.

America the refugee flow into Jordan. That is humanitarian need

:18:53.:18:56.

changing local politic. It is another reason why we in the west

:18:57.:19:02.

should be engaged. With one bound he was free! As we are on politics and

:19:03.:19:08.

you still clearly have political instincts, let me ask you about the

:19:09.:19:11.

Falkirk by-election inquiry? I can't get into the Falkirk by-election

:19:12.:19:17.

inquiry Jeremy. You can't blame me for trying? I applaud you for

:19:18.:19:21.

trying, I will tweet out you tried, as long as you tweet he resisted

:19:22.:19:26.

temptation and didn't get into it. Why is it obvious you can't talk

:19:27.:19:33.

about it? Because I'm the leader of a global NGO, not a member of

:19:34.:19:37.

parliament, I'm a member of the Labour Party but one in a position

:19:38.:19:40.

where I have to foreswear any comment on. That There was once a

:19:41.:19:49.

New York cartoon showing a dog sitting up at a computer keyboard

:19:50.:19:56.

and remarking smugly that no-one on the Internet knows you are a dog. It

:19:57.:20:00.

seems nobody knows anything much, if you want to buy drugs, guns, fake

:20:01.:20:06.

currency even a HITman you can do so, you just Need to know where to

:20:07.:20:14.

go on the called dark net, covering your tracks. We have obtained a data

:20:15.:20:19.

leak showing how fast the dark net is going. G. The FBI left us in no

:20:20.:20:36.

doubt, shutting down the Silk Road was a big catch for the big guys. It

:20:37.:20:42.

had allowed people to sell and buy almost all legal couldn't TRA band,

:20:43.:20:52.

drugs and weapons - couldn't -- contraband, cloaked in the anonymity

:20:53.:20:58.

of the Internet. As one dark net site gets illuminated and shut down,

:20:59.:21:02.

others take its place, through a data leak, Newsnight has had a rare

:21:03.:21:08.

glimpse of one of these operations and the speed at which it is

:21:09.:21:12.

growing. There is such a customer demand for these types of sites,

:21:13.:21:16.

taking one or a couple down will only mean that other sites of the

:21:17.:21:20.

same kind are going to reassure very quickly. You can probably best think

:21:21.:21:30.

of the dark web as a sort of rather dingey basement underneath the

:21:31.:21:33.

familiar internet that we all know. Up there is google and Amazon and

:21:34.:21:40.

Spotify and the BBC. Down here it is a rather murky anonymous world. Only

:21:41.:21:46.

accessible through something called the Tor browser. Tor stands for the

:21:47.:21:51.

The Onion Router, because the anonymity of users is safeguarded by

:21:52.:21:57.

layers and layers of re-routing, like an onion peeling back the

:21:58.:22:02.

layers ends in tears. It is used by anyone who would rather they didn't

:22:03.:22:06.

identify themselves, from political activists to drug dealers. Messages

:22:07.:22:12.

sent between buyers and sellers are automatically encrypted, and

:22:13.:22:18.

customers are made with Bitcoin, an untraceable virtual currency.

:22:19.:22:22.

Because neither side will run out to the police if they get ripped off,

:22:23.:22:28.

the whole market place runs on establishing trustworthiness. And as

:22:29.:22:34.

for users like Paul, not his real name, the advantages are clear. I

:22:35.:22:39.

bought LSD and MDMA, ecstacy, essentially. Why would this be a

:22:40.:22:44.

better way or more attractive for you than buying face-to-face? What

:22:45.:22:49.

attracted me was the availability of certain drugs which I can't get from

:22:50.:22:58.

street dealers. Certainly knowing if I went to buy the drugs I would get

:22:59.:23:01.

what I paid for. It is off the street, you have no idea what you

:23:02.:23:05.

are going to be buying. One of the sites to pick up activity from the

:23:06.:23:11.

Silk Road is called Black Market Reloaded, we got hold of its user

:23:12.:23:14.

database for from a month ago. It those over 330,000 individual

:23:15.:23:19.

accounts, growing at 2,000 every day, set to hit the million mark by

:23:20.:23:24.

May next year. This is just one of over a dozen dark net market places.

:23:25.:23:32.

Those websites attract quite a lot of interest from customer, basically

:23:33.:23:40.

because they provide a place to conduct the illegal activities in

:23:41.:23:44.

the physical world. If you purchase drugs you won't really want to have

:23:45.:23:50.

an interaction with a drug dealer. So those websites take the physical

:23:51.:23:54.

interactions out of the equation. You click a few buttons on-line and

:23:55.:23:59.

you get your illicit drugs shipped in the mail to you. That is actually

:24:00.:24:05.

a very appealing proposition for a lot of customers. The vast majority

:24:06.:24:11.

of these hundreds of thousands of buyers and sellers seem completely

:24:12.:24:16.

untraceable. However, dark net analysts have managed to link a tiny

:24:17.:24:20.

number of black market reloaded accounts with real world identities.

:24:21.:24:29.

This is what the raw database looks like, once it has been knocked into

:24:30.:24:32.

shape by data analysts at the BBC, it now looks like a spread sheet.

:24:33.:24:36.

This reveals e-mail addresses that in a very few days have also been

:24:37.:24:40.

used on social media sites. The first step to establishing a real

:24:41.:24:45.

identity. There is a fisherman in California selling around a million

:24:46.:24:48.

dollars worth of marijuana on the site each year. There is a man in St

:24:49.:24:55.

Helen's who sold us three sets of credit card details that he says he

:24:56.:25:00.

got through phishing scam, he also offered counterfeit currency. A man

:25:01.:25:05.

in Norway claimed to provide links to provide access to child

:25:06.:25:09.

pornography websites. It is human mistakes that led us to these

:25:10.:25:13.

identities which are often the only way in for the police. The way that

:25:14.:25:18.

law enforcement have potential ins is to masquerade as legitimate users

:25:19.:25:24.

and to try to get various tools installed unbe knowns to the hosting

:25:25.:25:31.

provider on to the server. By using those tools they can compromise and

:25:32.:25:36.

find their way to the hosting provider and IP addresses. That is

:25:37.:25:40.

pretty much what a hacker would try to do who was trying to take down a

:25:41.:25:46.

big corporate website? It is that in reverse. As we have seen such

:25:47.:25:51.

victories can be short lived, the triumph in which the FBI announced

:25:52.:25:55.

the closure of Silk Road hasn't lasted long, in the past week it

:25:56.:26:00.

went back on-line, mocking the police and showing a thousand drugs

:26:01.:26:04.

listing. It seems until the demand disappears, neither will these

:26:05.:26:12.

sites. Dave Kennedy is CEO of Trusted Sec, an information security

:26:13.:26:16.

company and computer hacker himself. This is a race between law

:26:17.:26:20.

enforcement and the underworld who is winning? The expansiveness of the

:26:21.:26:24.

dark net and how they transfer information back and forth, it is

:26:25.:26:27.

hard for law enforcement to catch up on. If you look how Silk Road was

:26:28.:26:32.

taken down, it emboldened the dark net side of the house to expand

:26:33.:26:37.

larger, they caught him on his public life not on what was

:26:38.:26:41.

encrypted and secure. It is hard for law enforcement to track the folks

:26:42.:26:45.

and get hold of their on-line identities TRAK it back to the

:26:46.:26:49.

original person. Silk Road attracted a certain amount of attention, but

:26:50.:26:53.

according to the piece there it was only a small part of the market?

:26:54.:26:57.

That's right, it pales in comparison to what is actually happening behind

:26:58.:27:00.

there. This is a whole new underground market for actually

:27:01.:27:04.

transferring anything you want. Credit card data, personal

:27:05.:27:10.

identifiable identification, explosions, drugs. These are

:27:11.:27:14.

different areas you can sell in NOOKs and cranies on the Internet

:27:15.:27:19.

separate from everything else. This isn't a scare story, you could go

:27:20.:27:24.

on-line and buy drugs or explosions or guns or whatever it is? You can

:27:25.:27:28.

buy drugs, explosives are difficult to come by, but you can find them

:27:29.:27:32.

and buy them. These are things sold in the United States. Things that

:27:33.:27:36.

are being sold all across the world. It is not a scare tactic at all, it

:27:37.:27:41.

is relatively available, you don't have to worry about our identity.

:27:42.:27:45.

The whole purpose of the designed infrastructure is to keep your

:27:46.:27:49.

identity safe. Does it follow from that we should automatically

:27:50.:27:56.

distrust DMIN who down-- anybody who downloads Tor? No, Tor is all about

:27:57.:28:01.

privacy and privacy concerns and what your identity is on-line and

:28:02.:28:05.

who can track it. Looking at recent actions with the NSA and what they

:28:06.:28:09.

are able to do. There is a lot of private concerns in the security

:28:10.:28:13.

industry about what type of information Governments have access

:28:14.:28:17.

to, as long as on-line hackers. Tor was bred out of the privacy forum

:28:18.:28:22.

and for good purposes, it can be used by the bad guys as well. What

:28:23.:28:27.

is the way forward? I think there needs to be a blend, the Tor

:28:28.:28:33.

application is very good for privacy and protecting information. At the

:28:34.:28:36.

same time if you look at how law enforcement is able to do it. They

:28:37.:28:40.

used zero day attacks, the things that haven't been discovered to

:28:41.:28:44.

trace people on Tor. It is very hard for them to see what is going on

:28:45.:28:47.

inside these areas. It will be really hard for them to move

:28:48.:28:51.

forward. There has to be a ni blend between privacy and the ability to

:28:52.:28:55.

get the bad guys that are doing these types of things on the

:28:56.:28:58.

Internet. Can you see an obvious way of doing it? Right now, no. The way

:28:59.:29:03.

technology is progressing and how it is progressing, there is a big

:29:04.:29:07.

emphasis on encryption and security. That will sky rocket more with the

:29:08.:29:12.

NSA allegations and everything else. Everybody is paranoid, which means

:29:13.:29:16.

technology will expand in the next five years into something crazy we

:29:17.:29:21.

can't look at. That will be challenging for law enforcement and

:29:22.:29:27.

there is no good answer now. Now, the fond hopes of western

:29:28.:29:31.

Governments that the dictatorship in Syria might be replaced by rebels

:29:32.:29:37.

seeking a form of democracy look increasingly forlorn. Islamic

:29:38.:29:40.

fundamentalists seem to be taking a more and more prominent role in the

:29:41.:29:46.

Civil War. An organisation calling itself the Islamic state in Iraq and

:29:47.:29:50.

the Levant, an Al-Qaeda affiliate now controls the important city of

:29:51.:29:55.

Raqqa in Syria. A place of perhaps one million people, to whom they

:29:56.:29:59.

brought their own species of religious tyranny. Refugees have

:30:00.:30:02.

been telling our reporter about what it is like to live under. She has

:30:03.:30:12.

reached the relative safety of Turkey but daren't talk openly. A

:30:13.:30:17.

young Syrian activist, who fled not from the guns and the Assad regime,

:30:18.:30:22.

but a new alien force. All lack Akbar. -- Allah hu Akbar. The

:30:23.:30:30.

Islamic state of Iraq and Syria is a branch of Al-Qaeda has taking over

:30:31.:30:35.

ever more of northern rebel held Syria. This is the story of how she

:30:36.:30:40.

and other Syrians from her home city have been terrorised by the Jihadis,

:30:41.:30:46.

after they thought they were liberated. TRANSLATION: Seven or

:30:47.:30:52.

eight men with explosive belts surrounded my sister, some said

:30:53.:30:57.

knife her or shoot her. She tore down her banner that said Christians

:30:58.:31:00.

and Muslims are one, and told her she was an infidel. TRAN They are

:31:01.:31:06.

the new dictators, like Bashar Al-Assad, but dressed in black. Only

:31:07.:31:13.

the colour has changed. TRANSLATION: They bring children, and order them

:31:14.:31:17.

to chant their slogans to say down with freedom, we want a KAL fate.

:31:18.:31:31.

The Islamic state celebrated its takeover of Raqqa, exactly six

:31:32.:31:35.

months ago. Celebrated by rounding people up to watch an execution. The

:31:36.:31:47.

victims they said weren't Muslims. TRANSLATION: They didn't say their

:31:48.:31:55.

names, just that they were Alawite, they fired in the air shouting "good

:31:56.:32:02.

is greatest". An ambulance came for the bodies and they told the driver

:32:03.:32:08.

to dump them on the rubbish tip but he insisted they were buried

:32:09.:32:14.

properly. Raqqa, the population of a million, including disgraced people,

:32:15.:32:18.

may be the largest city in the world ever fully controlled by Al-Qaeda.

:32:19.:32:35.

Give me an example of how they made you behave differently and do what

:32:36.:32:39.

you didn't want to do? TRANSLATION: I was walking down the street when

:32:40.:32:42.

two masked men gave me a paper saying I must wear Islamic dress, no

:32:43.:32:48.

make-up or high heels, otherwise they would take me to the

:32:49.:32:54.

headquarters and beat me severely. TRANSLATION: They banned the sale of

:32:55.:32:58.

alcohol, they tried to close cafes where boys and girls sit together,

:32:59.:33:02.

they banned street cinema, theatre, bright colours. The men who imposed

:33:03.:33:08.

the regin of terror include Jihadis from North Africa, Saudi Arabia and

:33:09.:33:12.

Europe. Seen here training in northern Syria. The forces are

:33:13.:33:21.

thought to include as many as 100 00 Britons. I'm here to help raise the

:33:22.:33:27.

Jihad flag. The United States your time will come, we will bleed you to

:33:28.:33:32.

death and raise the flag in the White House. With aims far wider

:33:33.:33:35.

than Syria they have discredited the revolution in the eyes of the world

:33:36.:33:42.

and split rebel forces. And that's produced another wave of refugees

:33:43.:33:48.

trying to keep warm in a makeshift camp on the Turkish side of the

:33:49.:33:52.

border. These have arrived in the last month from the nearby town,

:33:53.:33:57.

where Jihadis have taken control. 12-year-old Mohammed can no longer

:33:58.:34:03.

go to school. He's desperate to keep up his English. TRANSLATION: We had

:34:04.:34:08.

to leave Damascus because Bashar Al-Assad destroyed our homes, we

:34:09.:34:11.

moved to thevilleage, but the village was destroyed. We came here

:34:12.:34:17.

to be safe. Just a few miles beyond the fence they cling to is a swathe

:34:18.:34:22.

of Jihadi-controlled territory, it is getting wider by the day. Syrians

:34:23.:34:26.

who have been under attack from their own Government for the last

:34:27.:34:30.

two years are now bewildered and horrified to find they have a

:34:31.:34:34.

second, equally ruthless enemy, they are being squeezed, sometimes

:34:35.:34:38.

literally squeezed to death, between two forces, Jihadis and the regime,

:34:39.:34:44.

who should be at opposite extremes, but who seem sometimes now to be

:34:45.:34:47.

working in one another owes interests.

:34:48.:34:51.

-- one another's interests. When the fighters attacked one of Raqqa's

:34:52.:34:56.

main churches and made it their headquarters, they confirmed

:34:57.:35:00.

Al-Assad's position that the revolution would turn sectarian.

:35:01.:35:04.

TRANSLATION: Two carloads of armed fighters went on to the roof of the

:35:05.:35:12.

church. They broke the bell with hammers and one of the crosses they

:35:13.:35:16.

threw down into the street. They tried to break it but it was iron

:35:17.:35:24.

and they threw down a crucifix too. The crucifix was seized by children.

:35:25.:35:28.

But the cross was taken up by demonstrators chanting "shame,

:35:29.:35:37.

shame" . Outside the headquarters they shouted that Muslims and

:35:38.:35:41.

Christians would fight together for freedom. But now many of those

:35:42.:35:46.

protestors and other social activists have been arrested or

:35:47.:35:52.

forced to flee. TRANSLATION: They beat me with a rifle and with their

:35:53.:35:56.

hands when they arrested me. They threw a wheel on my back so I

:35:57.:36:04.

couldn't move. When I was arrested my mother came to the headquarters

:36:05.:36:10.

and shouted at them, "you are like bats, when did you come to Syria,

:36:11.:36:14.

where were you when our children stood defenceless against Assad's

:36:15.:36:20.

bullets". Back on the border, refugees who have now escaped

:36:21.:36:26.

Assad's blitz and bombs conDM him, but -- condemn him, but they are

:36:27.:36:30.

mostly too scared to say anything against the Jihadis. The new enemy

:36:31.:36:35.

that has jumped into the chaos of Syria, may now take even longer than

:36:36.:36:40.

the regime to dislodge. Six weeks today it will be Christmas Day. So

:36:41.:36:46.

there are a mere 42 days left in which to experience the glut of

:36:47.:36:50.

advertising trying to persuade us that the only way to celebrate this

:36:51.:36:53.

event is to spend a lot of money. The retailers need to get us into

:36:54.:36:57.

the shops, apart from anything else, to recoup some of the fortune they

:36:58.:37:01.

have spent on Christmas advertising campaign, in the last year or so we

:37:02.:37:13.

have been exposed less to jingles and that but almost an arms race. We

:37:14.:37:18.

will discuss whether it has success. First we have this. Tis the season

:37:19.:37:30.

of amu mentality and nostalgia, and adverts that don't mention what they

:37:31.:37:40.

are selling. That is far too boring. For these aren't really adverts at

:37:41.:37:44.

all, apparently they are movies and the companies that make them take

:37:45.:37:53.

them very seriously. Tesco even take you on set. What we're looking at is

:37:54.:37:57.

something which is like a little slice of history. Nothing does

:37:58.:38:02.

memory better than cinema. Tesco hope this ad will tell the real

:38:03.:38:06.

story of Christmas, by following a pretend family through six decades.

:38:07.:38:11.

So you met in the 1960s and we just got matter YOED and spent our first

:38:12.:38:17.

Christm together. Spending on Christmas ads has increased

:38:18.:38:23.

dramatically in recent years. Last Christmas supermarkets spent 23%

:38:24.:38:27.

more on TV and press advertising than the year before. Tesco shelled

:38:28.:38:32.

out the most ?8. Four million. Its sales went up by 5.6%. Sainsbury's

:38:33.:38:38.

bill was ?5.7 million, their sales rose five. 1%. But Morrisons forked

:38:39.:38:47.

out ?5. Five million and only had a 1.7 rise. Waitrose got a bang for

:38:48.:38:55.

their buck, a mere ?2. Two million, translating into a nine. 3% increase

:38:56.:39:01.

in sales. Earlier this evening Sainsbury's showed this Christmas

:39:02.:39:05.

advert for the first time. It is a trailer for a documentary about

:39:06.:39:09.

Christmas Day by the acclaimed director Devon McDonald. -- Kevin

:39:10.:39:16.

McDonald. Christmas lunch is not a difficult meal to prepare. It is

:39:17.:39:22.

made up of home videos gimp to the director by more than 100 families.

:39:23.:39:26.

When we first saw the film that Kevin put together we thought it was

:39:27.:39:29.

something pretty special, we asked ourselves a question how would you

:39:30.:39:34.

launch a film, the idea is to do a preview or trailer, we thought about

:39:35.:39:38.

using that perfect analogy, we thought our customers would love

:39:39.:39:40.

seeing the full three-and-a-half minutes before moving down into

:39:41.:39:45.

shorter formats. I think some people might be really struck even by the

:39:46.:39:50.

language here, this is a film. You are selling Christmas cake, why are

:39:51.:39:55.

you referring to it as a film, it is an ad? At Christmas time people want

:39:56.:39:59.

to be entertained and engaged. Perhaps sometimes in marketing we

:40:00.:40:03.

shout a bit too much at people about prices and promotions. It is

:40:04.:40:07.

definitely a bit of a softer sell. Sainsbury's bought up the entire

:40:08.:40:13.

ad-break during tonight's Coronation Street to show it. TV isn't all they

:40:14.:40:18.

care about. Social media is at the core of their strategy. Sainsbury's

:40:19.:40:38.

will be reading -- since breeze will be reading twitter and seeing what

:40:39.:40:43.

the response will be, things have changed.

:40:44.:40:52.

It is not clear whether all this advertTANment is working, will it

:40:53.:40:57.

persuade you to walk through their doors?

:40:58.:41:01.

With us now is Neil Christie managing director of the advertising

:41:02.:41:12.

film and firm who made the advert and Isabelle Szmigin. They make it

:41:13.:41:17.

sound as if they are doing a big style patronage of the arts. But

:41:18.:41:21.

presumably these are hard commercial judgments? This is a very important

:41:22.:41:25.

time for retail. But also for customers. Will they get their money

:41:26.:41:30.

back? The one who is do a good job, will do, absolutely. What is your

:41:31.:41:34.

view of these ads? I think we are going through a phase where there is

:41:35.:41:44.

a particular kind of ad going on, going back to family values. It is a

:41:45.:41:49.

very competitive market, some do well and some don't. We have to bear

:41:50.:41:52.

that in mind, these companies are competing for the share of the

:41:53.:41:58.

consumers' Christmas pound. They are not selling products? Not in these

:41:59.:42:03.

ads, but this is just part of their overall campaign going up to

:42:04.:42:06.

Christmas, there will be a whole load of other things, like your

:42:07.:42:09.

report said, the social media is going on, there will be price

:42:10.:42:15.

discounts in the stores. It is an amalgamation of ways to interact

:42:16.:42:21.

with the consumers. It is a slightly old fashioned model, built around

:42:22.:42:25.

the idea of the family sitting around the television, watching it

:42:26.:42:28.

collectively, sharing in the narrative, as opposed to some kind

:42:29.:42:32.

of viral campaign? Television is still a very effective way of

:42:33.:42:35.

reaching a large number of people quickly. Television isn't the only

:42:36.:42:38.

channel these retailers are using, they are using social media and

:42:39.:42:43.

in-store, they are using on-line. These ways television is a great way

:42:44.:42:46.

of starting the conversation, and that can continue. What is the

:42:47.:42:50.

conversation about? It is about Christmas. People look forward to

:42:51.:42:54.

Christmas. It is a lot of home videos? You are tapping into memory

:42:55.:42:59.

which is an incredibly powerful thing. What is that to do with going

:43:00.:43:03.

shopping? What that does is part of the preparation for all the stuff

:43:04.:43:06.

you need. To have the Christmas you are looking forward to. I think your

:43:07.:43:10.

cynicism is appropriate in many ways, what you have to do is at the

:43:11.:43:13.

end of the day these companies have got to sell product and some of the

:43:14.:43:17.

stories, people are going to like, but once you have seen the story,

:43:18.:43:21.

and it comes up on the TV again and again, can you get a little bit

:43:22.:43:25.

bored with it, and probably what you are thinking about, as you get up to

:43:26.:43:29.

Christmas is how much money have I got and how much will I spend. How

:43:30.:43:33.

many more times do I have to watch this? Exactly. We know consumers

:43:34.:43:38.

attention span is quite tight. So if you have got an ad that is a minute

:43:39.:43:43.

long, that can be problematic, I think the Sainsbury's one, they are

:43:44.:43:47.

talking about a long one to start off with, then coming up with

:43:48.:43:50.

smaller clips and so on. I think you have to be very careful about losing

:43:51.:43:54.

your consumers' attention. I think it can. We have other things to do

:43:55.:44:02.

as well as watch the ads. That is why so much time and effort goes

:44:03.:44:06.

into making them engages and entertaining and as emotionally

:44:07.:44:10.

moving as they can be. When you know the story at the end that the bear

:44:11.:44:15.

has been woken up or the girl has her red shoe, the next time is it as

:44:16.:44:21.

good. There is a level of craft and story telling that goes into them

:44:22.:44:25.

that repays. How many times do you go to see a movie in a cinema? A

:44:26.:44:32.

movie is 90 minutes long not a few seconds. You sit through the ads

:44:33.:44:38.

repeatedly? Yes. And people do it. You have to be paid? People

:44:39.:44:42.

genuinely enjoy these things and look forward to them. They look

:44:43.:44:46.

forward to them? It is part of the celebration of Christmas, it is like

:44:47.:44:49.

switching the lights on and putting up the decoration, they genuinely

:44:50.:44:53.

love it. You have to bear in mind at the end of the day that people have

:44:54.:44:57.

got to remember what is the brand they are watching. One of the things

:44:58.:45:00.

I would be concerned about with some of them is, was that John Lewis or

:45:01.:45:05.

was it Marks Spencers or whatever? Do we care? You know some of us care

:45:06.:45:11.

more than others, but I think that the entertainment factor is

:45:12.:45:16.

interesting. Why shouldn't ads be entertaining, there is nothing wrong

:45:17.:45:20.

with that. What I'm concerned with is when you get so many ads like

:45:21.:45:24.

this you can't cut through the clutter, they all become similar.

:45:25.:45:29.

This is a vogue, it will pass and something else will come along?

:45:30.:45:33.

There is definitely a trend over the last few years of more and more

:45:34.:45:38.

being invested both financially and emotionally around these campaigns

:45:39.:45:41.

at Christmas. It becomes a little bit like the Superbowl in America,

:45:42.:45:45.

it becomes the place to be because there is so much at stake, and if

:45:46.:45:49.

you are not in the game your people aren't aware you are out there and

:45:50.:45:53.

you are not competing. So I think at the moment there is definitely a

:45:54.:45:56.

feeling that for the big retailers, if you are not there in the

:45:57.:45:59.

Christmas market you are really not competing and you will lose out.

:46:00.:46:02.

Thank you very much indeed. Tomorrow morning's front pages now, the FT

:46:03.:46:07.

goes with the news of the improvement in the economy: le

:46:08.:46:11.

If you are the sort of of person who loves to cuddle up with a political

:46:12.:46:46.

speech. The Conservative Party has deleted speeches David Cameron made

:46:47.:46:53.

before he came to power. We have some left, so we leave you with a

:46:54.:46:57.

reminder of those more innocent times.

:46:58.:47:02.

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