01/04/2014 Newsnight


01/04/2014

In-depth analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines. Ebola, Help to Buy, Hillsborough, UKIP in power, and the Bloom Twins perform live. With Jeremy Paxman.


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Mysterious, deadly and terrifying. What is the Ebole virus? The current

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outbreak is suspected of killing at least 87 people in Africa in the

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most horrific way imaginable. How did it happen?

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The virus is its worst enemy because it is a virulent virus. It kills

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people soon after infection and doesn't really have a chance to

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transmit from person to person. And this... Dream of owning a home,

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but need a little help? Introducing Help to Buy a new Government scheme

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for people like you. Help to Buy celebrates its first

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birthday with a dangerously overheating housing market. We'll

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ask the Housing Minister if he is relaxed about that.

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What do UKIP councillors do for their day jobs? In the corner of the

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Fens that will be forever England, we discover what happens when UKIP

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gets a whiff of power. And from Ukraine, performers and

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protestors, the Bloom Twins. # You can fool some people sometimes

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# You can fool all the people all the time #

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Don't shake hands. Don't kiss and definitely don't have sex. The

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public health advice in one of the countries affected is strict.

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Understandably, for the outbreak of Ebola virus infections in West

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Africa is the stuff of horror movies. No one knows quite how it

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first strikes, but it seems to come from out of the jungle and may be

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related to eating bushmeat. There is no known cure and a high proportion

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of victims die terrible deaths as blood pours from their veins and

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then from their bowels and bladders, mouths and noses. Some cry blood.

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All are in great pain. Suspected cases have been found in Sierra

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Leone and Liberia, but the majority including 83 deaths in the current

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outbreak have been concentrated in poverty-stricken, thug-infested

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Guinea. Jim Reed reports. This simple is one of the most

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deadly. Discovered the Ebola virus can kill nine out of ten of those

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unlucky enough to catch it. And for the first time, it has been found in

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the West African nation of Guinea. Dozens of staff from Medecins Sans

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Frontieres are now on the ground trying to contain this outbreak. The

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medical charity is calling it unprecedented in scale.

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What is really worrying doctors is the spread in this case. Normally

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contained in remote villages, it has moved into larger towns. 55 have

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died and 11 people have been infected in the port and capital.

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There are seven suspected cases in neighbouring Liberia and health

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authorities fear it may have spread to Sierra Leone to the south,

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Senegal has closed its land border to all traffic. When Ebola hits it

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is in an isolated village and this is good and bad. For the people

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there, this means almost certain death because there is little chance

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that any medical care can get in there, but it has, it contains the

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virus to some extent. In the urban areas of Guinea, we are talking

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about the one capital city, probably a quart of the people in the country

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live there and they live in den site. Ten meters there would be

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someone else in the capital. It is easy to be in close contact and we

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need close contact to transmit the viruses. Ebola was identified in

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1976 in a remote part. The virus is common in bats, antelopes and

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monkeys. It may have spread to human with close contact with animals,

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probably through the bushmeat trade. When someone is infected, they stand

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little chance of survival. After a week-long incubation period, there

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are flu-like symptoms and vomiting and diarrhoea and internal bleeding.

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When humans are infected they become very sick and many times they die

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and they transmit it maybe to a family member too, but the family

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stays away. They know that something is wrong and tran mission stops --

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transmission stops. When a virus gets into a hospital setting, and

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practises are not as they should be when needles are not sterilised

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properly and when health workers are careless, it can spread to health

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workers and to other patients and from those patients and health

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workers out to family members and into the community. So hospitals

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really amplify the transmission of this virus in a setting where

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practises are not what they should be. This Ebola virus is emerging

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from a cell. This disease is so deadly that scientists describe it

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as its own worst enemy, killing infected patients before it can be

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passed on. There is no cure. And no working vaccine. Right now, though,

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the main thing that's stopping a vaccine or more development is it is

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economic. These outbreaks are happening in a part of the world

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where there is not a lot of money and there isn't a bit

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pharmaceuticals and it mate cost hundreds of -- may cost hundreds of

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millions of pounds to develop a vaccine, who is going to spend that

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money and how are they going to get it back? It is something that not

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one company, but the world needs to tackle in one go. The World Health

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Organization said today it is too early to call this an epidemic and

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the main area of infection remains localised. In Guinea, buckets of

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disinfectant stand outside family homes and airlines have cancelled

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flights. For millions, in parts of West Africa, the fear of this

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individual suss is as -- virus is as contagious as the illness itself.

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With me are Paul Goa Zoumanigui, Guinea's ambassador to the UK,

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Professor Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust and one of the

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world's leading figures in the field of infectious diseases and in

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Brussels is Meinie Nicolai, President of Medecins Sans

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Frontieres in Belgium. Her team are in Guinea trying to contain the

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epidemic. Jeremy Farrar, what is it that's so uniquely frightening about

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this particular virus? Well, it started off in 1976 in

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Sudan and since there has been 2200 cases across Africa of which 200

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people died. The infection rate is high and that's frightening and it

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spreads between families. It spreads as we have heard, it is amplified in

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hospitals. It is difficult to control and it is an incredibly

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nasty, infection with a high mortality.

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Ambassador, why has it been difficult for your Government to get

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on top this outbreak? Well, first of all, thank you for inviting me for

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this. Thank you for coming. I would say that it is difficult because we

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have not experienced deaths. This is the first time deaths are occurring

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in Guinea and we needed assistance from partners. So far that has been

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done by partners, WHO, Medecins Sans Frontieres, UNICEF and so on and the

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Red Cross, of course. The Government is doing all its up most to overcome

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the crisis and through the cord nation with the international --

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co-ordination with the international community and through local means

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too. Let's speak to Meinie Nicolai now.

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What can you offer a patient? We heard this is a very, very dangerous

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virus. What can you offer somebody who is already ill with the virus?

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Yes, what we do, we care for the patient. So there is no cure for the

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moment. So we don't have medication that will kill this virus. What will

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happen in communities, people are so afraid of it that they may even

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abandon people who have the disease. So what we do, we take care of the

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person. We isolate him or her from other patients in a hospital setting

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we make a separate unit and then we try to comfort the patient, treat

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the symptoms, the fever, the pain, rehigh drayed and we should not --

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rehydrate and we should not forget, not all die. Some will survive and

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we give psychological support because when you know you have this

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disease, you are conscious about it and you know you may well die. So we

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try to help the patient in dignity, but it is very difficult. Is it

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easy, it is dangerous for the doctors and nurses, of course, as

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well, isn't it? Is it hard to get people to go to treat to patients in

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this condition? Well, strangely enough we always

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attract people to who are willing to lead with us, we don't have

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difficulties to find people. You are right, it is dangerous for the

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people we send out. So what we do, we train them here in Brussels

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before they leave. We have built up a large experience as the ambassador

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said, it is the first time it comes to Guinea, MSF treated in ten cases

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or more. So we have built up an expertise, we have trained the

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people beforehand. We give them protective material and what you

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need is discipline. You need to be disciplined to follow the procedures

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from A to Z before you enter the room where the patient is when you

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leave, what you do with the material, how you approach him,

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extra. We -- etcetera, we train the people and we have good

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collaboration with the Ministry of Health in Gaza Stripy. We train the

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-- in Guinea. We train the staff to protect themselves. Professor Jeremy

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Farrar, one can understand it is terrifying when you hear it like

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that. But what do we know about where it comes from? It probably

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comes from an animal reservoir. These are sporadic cases. We don't

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see cases for many years and there is huge outbreaks as now in Guinea.

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Probably fruit bats and primates within the forests of Africa and it

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spills over. It is another of these examples of these an man -- animal

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infection, we have seen it with bird flu. It is the link between humans

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and animals and changing ecology, changing the way people live and the

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viruses can jump across. Do you think it can be controlled

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this outbreak? MSF have done over decades now, huge experience in

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controlling outbreaks and you will be able to control this outbreak.

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The mortality is very high. That doesn't help the virus go from one

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person to another and it is tragic for the individuals, but it does

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lead to the epidemic being controlled. It will ultimately be

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controlled, but one of the features of this epidemic is the geographical

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spread that we are seeing. We are seeing it more broadly than we have

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seen before and we have cross-border of people and the migration of

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people, movement of people is really important.

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Why haven't you closed the borders, ambassador? I beg your pordon. --

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pardon. Why haven't you closed your borders? We haven't closed the

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border and we rely on WHO there have not been any warnings for WHO for

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closing any border. Of course, we are working with our neighbouring

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countries and it has been raised in a meeting. It was the meeting of the

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Council of Ministers on peace and security to see how to tackle this

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disease and it was agreed that the entire community should work

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together to tackle these diseases. I think there is no need for the time

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being for the closing of the border. You are nodding in agreement, are

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you professor? I would. Firstly, the borders are not that strictly, they

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are very leaky. So closing officially borders, the informal

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travelling cross borders would happen anyway. Closing borders in

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infectious diseases gives you a false sense of security, I think.

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From what we have heard about the way that the teams from Medecins

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Sans Frontieres for example go about dealing with an outbreak like this,

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it seems to suggest that it isn't really a risk in a different kind of

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society, in a more advanced society, a more wealthy society where for

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example hygiene practises are better in hospitals?

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Sure. Infection control is crucial to stopping this epidemic, but I

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think it would be wrong to suggest that this is just a disease and

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others of a similar nature are problems of resource limited

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countries. Let's look at other infections that come across from

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animals. It is an infection that jumps species, isn't it? HIV jumps

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from species and look what happened to IVF. This will be controlled

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probably eventually by the local ministries of health and MSF, but it

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is part of a wider context and that's the emergence of new viruses

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and their ability to cross from animals and because of trade the

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ability to travel between countries. Do you think that's a risk? As we

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saw with is as, these infections will travel across borders. I don't

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think it will be right to say this is a problem for Guinea. These are

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global problems. Meinie Nicolai, I bet you would give your eyeteeth for

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a vaccine wouldn't you? Of course. It would be fantastic. It is

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difficult for our teams to work with the patients knowing that a lot of

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them will die. We continue to do it, because dignity, caring for people

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is very important, even if you know they will die. That remains as a

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human aspect important in our work. And then to contain the epidemic. As

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long as we don't have a vaccine or a real treatment, what we then do is

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tracing the contacts of the patients. We have teams, outreach

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teams, as soon as we have one patient we will go to his or her

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village, see who were the family members, the neighbours and so on.

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See if they develop fever. Follow them for at least three three weeks

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and try to spot where new cases could happen, isolate them, care for

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them. Hopefully they will cure, but the cure has to come from themselves

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surviving the virus. In that sense, investing in hygiene measure

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inspection the hospitals and the health centres in this case in

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Guinea. That will be the measures we take. Safe funeral practices are

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also important. Thank you very much all indeed.

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Do you know what day it was today? It was the first anniversary of the

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introduction of the Help to Buy scheme, the arrangement under which

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the Government lends people money to buy houses or flats they otherwise

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couldn't afford. It's undoubtedly been good news for some people. But,

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bigger picture, as anyone who's tried to buy a new home in the last

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year knows, many parts of this country are in the grip of such

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surging house price inflation that people despair of ever affording to

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own the roof over their heads. What's the connection between these

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facts? Andy Verity reports. This is what Help to Buy was

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supposed to do wasn't it? For families that can't raise a big

:16:45.:16:48.

enough deposit homes no longer out of reach, even in Surrey. Demand for

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homes in Godalming is so high that buyers buy before the house is

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finished and move in before their street. After renting for 14 years,

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this speech therapist can afford a three-bed house worth nearly

:17:05.:17:10.

?500,000. Our daughter's just come along. You've got the extra costs of

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childcare and things like that. It's been such a help so that we could

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get into our own home, so Isla can have her own garden, her own room,

:17:20.:17:25.

because she was in our room. With help from her mum and dad, Kate,

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whose husband works for a hedge fund, can muster a ?25,000 deposit.

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What would you say if I told you I would buy a fifth of it for you and

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I wouldn't need any money back for five years? And even after that I

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would only charge you 1. 75% above base rate? You would think I was

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crazy. You wouldn't think I was giving awe loan on commercial terms,

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but that's why we the taxpayer are doing for those taking up Help to

:17:58.:18:01.

Buy. Analysis by Home Track shows what the first stage of Help to Buy,

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the equity long, does to your buying power. Without Help to Buy a

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household income of ?44,500 would buy you a home forth ?192,000. With

:18:12.:18:16.

Help to Buy on the same income you could afford a new home of ?225,000,

:18:17.:18:22.

the average price, so Help to Buy boosts your purchasing power by the

:18:23.:18:27.

difference again of 17%. But since Help to Buy started, house prices

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nationally have risen by between 8-9%, so half the gain from Help to

:18:33.:18:36.

Buy has been wiped out. Another year like that and all that taxpayer help

:18:37.:18:42.

for new homes won't have made them more affordable. It has helped a few

:18:43.:18:47.

individuals, but that's more illusory, because it has helped them

:18:48.:18:52.

buy a house that's more expensive than it would have been. It is

:18:53.:18:59.

17,000 home homes now occupied because of Help to Buy. There's 9

:19:00.:19:03.

million people in the private rent rented sector who want to buy.

:19:04.:19:07.

There's people struggling to pay their rent, eat and heat their

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homes. Help to Buy isn't going to buy votes. God al al-Ming --

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Godalming. At this site three quarters of the homes sold were with

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Help to Buy, but nationally only a fifth were. What's clear is the

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supply of new homes isn't rising fast enough to keep up with the

:19:31.:19:37.

number of new homes stimulated by Help to Buy. As long as demand

:19:38.:19:43.

outstrip outstrips supply it will make them less affordable, not more.

:19:44.:19:47.

Prices have been going up sharply across the country, 9-9%. That's an

:19:48.:19:54.

indication that demand is rising faster than supply. Demand is

:19:55.:20:03.

stimulated by low interest rates. Last year the number of new homes

:20:04.:20:07.

went up by a third but it is far fewer than were built in the boom

:20:08.:20:11.

and half what we need to meet demand. It is good growth and the

:20:12.:20:16.

developers have responded well, but shortage of manpower and skilled

:20:17.:20:21.

labour and building materials haven't helped. And, of course, the

:20:22.:20:26.

biggest frustration is planning permissions. An economist will tell

:20:27.:20:30.

you if demand for homes is outstripping supply and you don't

:20:31.:20:34.

want prices to rise, you've got to curb demand, not stoke it. The worry

:20:35.:20:39.

is that these policies have become self defeating and that because

:20:40.:20:44.

there's so much demand in the housing market, prices are rising

:20:45.:20:47.

much faster than income tax and taking housing out of the reach of

:20:48.:20:50.

first-time buyers soft. All the schemes that are there to help are

:20:51.:20:55.

being undone by the increases in house prices. It is the sort of fact

:20:56.:20:59.

we are used to but maybe shouldn't be, that prices are now rising four

:21:00.:21:04.

times faster than income tax. At that rate even the largesse of

:21:05.:21:08.

taxpayers willing to buy a fifth of someone else's home won't stop more

:21:09.:21:14.

families being priced out. The Housing Minister, Kris Hopkins, is

:21:15.:21:18.

here. Are rising house price as good thing? They are certainly part of

:21:19.:21:22.

the market and I want to correct some of the figures that were in

:21:23.:21:27.

your VT there. First of all, house prices have gone up. At the end of

:21:28.:21:33.

January 6. 8%, not 8-9%. If you take London and the South East out of,

:21:34.:21:38.

that about 3. 8%, so the figures you've got there are slightly

:21:39.:21:43.

distorted. In fact they are twice as much... But they are still rising

:21:44.:21:46.

though. Sure. And that's a good thing? First of all you have got to

:21:47.:21:54.

say where were we in 2008-2010? We are nowhere near those prices. So it

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is a good thing? I think so. So you do think rising house prices are a

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good thing? I've bought a house and I expect the value to rise and I am

:22:05.:22:09.

sure you do as well. Would you like more new houses to be built?

:22:10.:22:13.

Absolutely. The key thing about Help to Buy... You could just decree it.

:22:14.:22:18.

I think I want to see more houses being built, and we are seeing more

:22:19.:22:24.

houses being built. In London a 26-year high. Some of the figures

:22:25.:22:28.

you chose in that package, there and you talked about very wealthy

:22:29.:22:31.

individuals using Help to Buy, but the average house price on Help to

:22:32.:22:36.

Buy, on the guarantee scheme, is ?145,000. That's on the equity

:22:37.:22:41.

scheme only ?83,000, which is well below the average house price in

:22:42.:22:44.

this country. You say you would like to see more houses being built. Yep.

:22:45.:22:48.

And at the same time you are stoking demand? Well, we are not, because

:22:49.:22:52.

the other aspect to this, if you look at Morgan Stanley's research,

:22:53.:22:59.

fourth quarter on house sales, 0. 5% of those transactions with Help to

:23:00.:23:05.

Buy, so 0. 5% of all the transactions that were undertaken in

:23:06.:23:07.

the fourth quarter were associated with Help to Buy. What Help to Buy's

:23:08.:23:12.

done is actually bought real houses out of the ground, 17,000 houses. 9%

:23:13.:23:19.

of those are first-time buyers -- 89% of those are first-time buyers.

:23:20.:23:25.

We are woefully short in supply. I agree with you. And you can see you

:23:26.:23:29.

are stoking demand. The consequence of that is rising prices isn't it? I

:23:30.:23:34.

don't agree we are stoking prices. But I agree we need more houses.

:23:35.:23:39.

Well why not do something about it? Help to Buy is doing that. This

:23:40.:23:43.

project is not just about homes but the jobs that come with it. 250,000

:23:44.:23:48.

jobs were wiped out of the construction industry. At the

:23:49.:23:52.

moment, 28,000 depoz vets been put on these houses. 17,000 houses have

:23:53.:23:59.

been bit. Every house is a job. 1,200 small and medium-sized

:24:00.:24:03.

businesses supported is. How many houses do you think we should be

:24:04.:24:07.

building per year? I don't want to put a figure on that. There was a

:24:08.:24:11.

figure put on it ten years ago wasn't there? I've been in the job

:24:12.:24:15.

since October last year. I've seen a range of figures from 200,000 to

:24:16.:24:20.

260,000. What I do know is there's a huge demand out there and we need to

:24:21.:24:24.

match that. Your lower figure there was 200,000. Yes. How many actually

:24:25.:24:32.

are being built each year? About 120,000 at the moment. That's going

:24:33.:24:37.

up all the -- all the time. The key thing is making sure that affordable

:24:38.:24:40.

houses are being built, whether it is making sure we've got a planning

:24:41.:24:44.

system that supports the building of houses. That's really important.

:24:45.:24:50.

We've put 19. 5 billion pounds public and private money into making

:24:51.:24:56.

sure affordable houses and 170,000 houses coming out. Ebbsfleet in

:24:57.:25:01.

London, 69,000 houses on some of these large sites. Government is

:25:02.:25:05.

focused on making sure this works. An important part of the economy. A

:25:06.:25:08.

huge part of the construction industry overall, and making sure

:25:09.:25:13.

that supply meets that demand is something we are absolutely summited

:25:14.:25:17.

-- committed to do. Thank you. Pleasure.

:25:18.:25:21.

The details of the most terrible catastrophe to occur at a British

:25:22.:25:25.

sports ground were laid out today - just as vivid and and as troubling

:25:26.:25:29.

as they've been on the many previous occasions on which attempts have

:25:30.:25:31.

been made to understand how 96 people could be killed at a football

:25:32.:25:35.

match. We're a fortnight away now from the 25th anniversary of the

:25:36.:25:38.

tragedy, and the previous inquest verdicts of accidental death have

:25:39.:25:41.

been overturned. The new inquest, being held in Warrington, is to be a

:25:42.:25:44.

thorough re-examination. Peter Marshall was there. It will be the

:25:45.:25:51.

longest inquest in British legal history. The jury was told today

:25:52.:25:55.

after being sworn in, there are seven women and four men on the

:25:56.:25:59.

jury. They were told by the coroner that it is not a criminal

:26:00.:26:01.

prosecution, because an investigation is still going on in

:26:02.:26:04.

parallel. They have to decide, their job is to decide how, where and when

:26:05.:26:09.

individuals died, and whether opportunity were missed to save

:26:10.:26:14.

lives. He said to them, he advised them on law but it was their

:26:15.:26:19.

decisions that counted in tend. They had to reach their own conclusion on

:26:20.:26:24.

the evidence they would hear. This would include what he called

:26:25.:26:28.

harrowing accounts of the people that survived and moving accounts of

:26:29.:26:32.

the bereaved. From a Victorian football stadium in Sheffield to a

:26:33.:26:36.

brand-new purpose-built Coroner's Court in a Warrington business park.

:26:37.:26:40.

It has taken 25 years but in the words of the coroner, Lord Justice

:26:41.:26:48.

Goldring, the Hillsborough disaster seared into the memories of so many.

:26:49.:26:53.

The original verdicts, accidental death, were quashed in 2012. Coroner

:26:54.:26:58.

said this jury shouldn't be concerned with any of that. They

:26:59.:27:01.

will consider the experiences of each of the 96. In terms of scale,

:27:02.:27:06.

scope and nature, this is a test of the legal system and it is setting

:27:07.:27:11.

precedents. A long-term campaigner would like what's happening here to

:27:12.:27:16.

become a model for inquest law. We have a jury at this inquest which I

:27:17.:27:20.

really think validates the process for both families and public

:27:21.:27:24.

confidence that this important inconfess will be subjected to

:27:25.:27:32.

independent scrutininy. You would rather there were more juries at

:27:33.:27:41.

inquests? They can play an extraordinary important role,

:27:42.:27:44.

particularly where there are worries of failing of state systems. She

:27:45.:27:51.

noted the London bombings inquest had no secure are you but it will

:27:52.:27:57.

set a press department repeated in Warrington. The bereaved give the

:27:58.:28:02.

jury biographies of those they've lost. Arthur Horrocks was 4 3, his

:28:03.:28:11.

son Jamie was nine. We get to told the court who my dad Warix what he -

:28:12.:28:16.

what his prospects were, what he's missed out on in the past 25 years.

:28:17.:28:21.

And you as a family as well? Most definitely. So you think that's a

:28:22.:28:25.

good point about these inquests is it? Huge. James Aspinall was just

:28:26.:28:31.

18. His mum, Margaret, said she would be too emotional to tell the

:28:32.:28:35.

jury about James, so his brother, David, will do it. We shared the

:28:36.:28:40.

same bedroom. We were very, very close. What are you going to say?

:28:41.:28:50.

Well, I've got to give a character verdict of our James basically, some

:28:51.:28:53.

of the fun ownership times we had, some of the bad times we had.

:28:54.:28:56.

Anything to get his character across. Today the coroner began

:28:57.:29:04.

outlining the case. He said the Chief Superintendent David

:29:05.:29:07.

Duckenfield had only been put in charge less than three weeks before

:29:08.:29:11.

the disaster. His speciality wasn't public order and he had never worked

:29:12.:29:15.

at the stadium. Whether that was a sensible decision may be something

:29:16.:29:19.

for you to consider. Describing how a terrible crushed developed in two

:29:20.:29:23.

pens holding Liverpool fans, he said:

:29:24.:29:37.

No one kept check on how many fans were going into the central stands.

:29:38.:29:46.

There were some suggestion that the authorities were forewarned?

:29:47.:29:49.

Liverpool fans on Leppings Lane, some of them reported they were

:29:50.:29:52.

involved in a crush there. There was a crush on Leppings Lane at the

:29:53.:29:55.

time. Yet the authorities thought that the operation was successful

:29:56.:30:02.

and later modelled their plan for 1989 on the 1988 tie. And there were

:30:03.:30:06.

comments about how some of the bereaved were treated? The jury were

:30:07.:30:12.

told of the agonising process for relatives in the Hillsborough gym

:30:13.:30:16.

where they were shown photos of all the dead and asked to pick out their

:30:17.:30:20.

children or their brothers or sisters or their parents out of

:30:21.:30:24.

that. They were denied the chance of holding or touching the bodies. Some

:30:25.:30:30.

were asked about their loved one's alcohol consumption which left them

:30:31.:30:36.

angry to this day. Half had no blood alcohol detected and others were

:30:37.:30:39.

consistent with moderate social drinking.

:30:40.:30:43.

Peter, thank you. Round two of the exhibition match

:30:44.:30:46.

between the Deputy Prime Minister and the leader of the United Kingdom

:30:47.:30:49.

Independence Party tomorrow night. Doubtless, Nigel Farage has been

:30:50.:30:52.

practising his lines in the lounge bar of the Dog and Ferret tonight.

:30:53.:30:55.

Whether he'll be repeating his declared admiration for Mr Putin

:30:56.:30:59.

we'll see tomorrow. He can certainly take comfort from some recent polls.

:31:00.:31:04.

But what is his fanbase. Who will vote UKIP? Emily Maitlis has been

:31:05.:31:06.

trying to find out. Spring is in the air in

:31:07.:31:14.

Cambridgeshire. And the marigolds are out.

:31:15.:31:21.

There can't be many men who wear rubber gloves and a pinstriped suit

:31:22.:31:26.

to clean a public loo, but Pete does, he is the local UKIP

:31:27.:31:31.

councillor and he tells me he is here cleaning every day. I intend to

:31:32.:31:36.

keep on carrying that public toilet. I love doing it for the community.

:31:37.:31:39.

It is something where you can see people appreciate what you are doing

:31:40.:31:43.

and we are keeping tax down for the local community and our hometown and

:31:44.:31:47.

that's worth doing. For as long as I'm able to, I will keep cleaning

:31:48.:31:51.

the public toilets here. If I become an MP I will continue to do it.

:31:52.:31:56.

Peter and his partner, Lisa are seen as a power couple. She was UKIP's

:31:57.:32:01.

first mayor. People will see me for who I am and UKIP is more than the

:32:02.:32:06.

old man down the pub. Maybe 10 or 15 years ago, we were a party of older

:32:07.:32:10.

men in playsers and white hair. -- blazers and white hair. That's

:32:11.:32:14.

clearly not us. The couple are recognised wherever they go. Yes,

:32:15.:32:17.

because they have put Ramsey on the map, haven't they? What do you think

:32:18.:32:22.

of UKIP? Well, I'm going to vote for them this time. Who did you vote for

:32:23.:32:27.

last time? Labour, but I think they have lost their way a little bit.

:32:28.:32:31.

Joanne is a Ramsey resident and she is if you will forgive the tone,

:32:32.:32:37.

part of a new UKIP demographic, not a disenchanted well off Tory man,

:32:38.:32:41.

but a Labour voting retired woman. And it is this demographic that can

:32:42.:32:47.

propel UKIP into a wider power base than they have had in the past. The

:32:48.:32:52.

voters are the left behinds, they are financially disadvantaged and

:32:53.:32:56.

pessimistic, they are low ka educated and very concentrated in

:32:57.:33:02.

deprived areas, often Labour areas not just Conservative areas and they

:33:03.:33:06.

are anxious over domestic issues like immigration and as they see t

:33:07.:33:09.

the unresponsiveness of our politicians in Westminster.

:33:10.:33:14.

Ramsey made living history in 2011 by becoming the first town in the UK

:33:15.:33:18.

to be controlled by UKIP. Since then, they have had two UKIP mayors.

:33:19.:33:24.

They like to think of this town as proof they can run things, not just

:33:25.:33:27.

protest! Perhaps that's why out in the

:33:28.:33:33.

battlebus you will barely hear them mention Europe or immigration. Here

:33:34.:33:39.

it is kept local. Out canvassing with Ramsey's current

:33:40.:33:43.

mayor, business is slow. The first three houses don't answer the door.

:33:44.:33:49.

At the fourth, the resident explains rather graphically what he would do

:33:50.:33:55.

with a UKIP poster. Perhaps he doesn't realise Pete

:33:56.:33:57.

cleans toilets in his spare time anyway. At the next few houses, they

:33:58.:34:04.

strike gold. They tell me the town turns purple at election time and it

:34:05.:34:08.

is not just the more keting material that debts -- marketing material

:34:09.:34:11.

that gets everywhere. There is something on the present about UKIP

:34:12.:34:16.

in Ramsey, they clean the loos and patrol the streets and issue

:34:17.:34:20.

on-the-spot fines to vandals at chucking out time on a Friday night.

:34:21.:34:24.

It adds up to an old-fashioned sense of the village bobby on the beat.

:34:25.:34:32.

There is a paternalistic hand on your shoulder wherever you turn and

:34:33.:34:36.

some locals find this rather troubling. They are good and clever

:34:37.:34:38.

at driving around in their big purple and yellow bus. He cleaned

:34:39.:34:45.

out the toilets which removed a job from somebody who was doing that. He

:34:46.:34:50.

played on the immigration, hasn't he in a big way? It has frightened the

:34:51.:34:56.

mainly major parties. Whatever the strategy, it seems to have been

:34:57.:35:00.

vindicated so far at the polls. UKIP's hands on grass-roots helped

:35:01.:35:09.

the party the elections. It gained 139 extra councillors. Its success

:35:10.:35:13.

lost the Conservatives control of councils in Cambridgeshire, Norfolk

:35:14.:35:18.

and Lincolnshire. In the 2009 European elections, UKIP more than

:35:19.:35:22.

doubled its share of the vote to 16%, this time the party says the

:35:23.:35:26.

sky is the limit. If UKIP top the polls in the

:35:27.:35:29.

European elections next month, it will be the first time that any

:35:30.:35:33.

party other than Labour or the Conservatives have won a nationwide

:35:34.:35:38.

election since the First World War. It is the wind of odd statistic that

:35:39.:35:42.

pollsters are having to grapple with. Something that seemed

:35:43.:35:45.

inconceivable four years ago, and doesn't seem so unlikely anymore.

:35:46.:35:49.

The big decision for the party will be one of power versus protest, can

:35:50.:35:55.

they govern and seem like the radical alternative to the status

:35:56.:35:59.

quo? We don't intend to be a polished political party. We are a

:36:00.:36:04.

bunch of amateurs with ordinary jobs and lives who are getting involved

:36:05.:36:07.

in politics because they are sick of politicians.

:36:08.:36:09.

How does the party sick of politicians hit the big time come

:36:10.:36:14.

2015? The east of England maybe responding to UKIP's overtures at a

:36:15.:36:19.

local level, the party claims they can get 20 MPs at a general

:36:20.:36:23.

election, even with a bus this big, that could be a whole new battle.

:36:24.:36:29.

Well, Suzanne Evans is a UKIP councillor in South London who

:36:30.:36:33.

defected from the Conservatives in 2013. John Harris is a journalist

:36:34.:36:38.

who has written extensively about UKIP. You spend a lot of time with

:36:39.:36:46.

these guys? I have been to Ramsey twice. Not just Ramsey, but other

:36:47.:36:49.

places where UKIP are on the march. What are they like UKIP supporters?

:36:50.:36:55.

The film gave a good flavour of why they choose to vote the way they do.

:36:56.:36:59.

They feel very sort of, cut off. I have a pet theory which was sparked

:37:00.:37:05.

by UKIP's success, there is a north/south divide in England, but

:37:06.:37:09.

there is an east/west divide and Eastern England feels very, very

:37:10.:37:13.

isolated and by the time you get to the coast, London feels a long way

:37:14.:37:17.

away and people complain there are holes in the road and there aren't

:37:18.:37:20.

many jobs and opportunities and no one licence to them and in addition

:37:21.:37:24.

-- listens to them and because the regional economy is based around

:37:25.:37:29.

agriculture, with the tourist industry towards the coast, they are

:37:30.:37:34.

both parts of the economy which use migrant labour at low rates often,

:37:35.:37:38.

local people under cut. They don't feel politicians are listening and

:37:39.:37:42.

you have this powder keg really and along come UKIP saying immigration,

:37:43.:37:47.

immigration, immigration to para face Tony Blair -- para phrase Tony

:37:48.:37:52.

Blair and people like the sound of it. Why did you join? I say the

:37:53.:37:58.

Conservative Party left me rather than I left the Conservative Party.

:37:59.:38:02.

I think coming up to the 2010 general election there was a feeling

:38:03.:38:04.

that the Conservatives were going to make a difference. They were going

:38:05.:38:07.

to make a difference on immigration. They were going to make a

:38:08.:38:10.

difference, this whole talk of this huge Reform Bill sweeping away the

:38:11.:38:15.

bureaucracy that the Labour Government brought in and it didn't

:38:16.:38:18.

happen. There was a lack of compassion. I like to think of

:38:19.:38:22.

myself as a compassionate person. The way the Conservatives were

:38:23.:38:26.

operating, I didn't want to be part of it anymore. I looked at what UKIP

:38:27.:38:31.

had to offer. I spoke personally to Nigel Farage. He joined. I don't

:38:32.:38:36.

regret it for a moment. You went out of disillusion more

:38:37.:38:42.

than out of policy? I think the initial impetus was true, yeah,

:38:43.:38:47.

that's right, Jeremy, it was disillusion, but did look at the

:38:48.:38:50.

policies carefully and discussed them in great detail and I was

:38:51.:38:54.

impressed by what I saw and it tuned with my values and as you saw in the

:38:55.:38:57.

report there, it tunes very much with the values of the people that

:38:58.:39:00.

John was talking about, the people that feel dispossessed, the people

:39:01.:39:06.

fed-up with the politicians operating in the Westminster bubble

:39:07.:39:09.

and they want something different. He is not on the same side of the

:39:10.:39:13.

fence as you. What's your sense of whether people are interested in

:39:14.:39:16.

policies or acting out of disillusion? At this point in time,

:39:17.:39:21.

UKIP doesn't have many policies, it doesn't have a policy platform which

:39:22.:39:25.

is convenient because people project on to it whatever they want. A lot

:39:26.:39:31.

of people at the top of UKIP, Nigel Farage are free-market eeres which

:39:32.:39:45.

haven't got much to say, it doesn't matter. The point is that, UKIP is a

:39:46.:39:55.

cult of personality around a fantastically charismatic man who

:39:56.:39:57.

embodies a difference in the political class we have ended up

:39:58.:40:00.

with. I don't think that's true. We have huge amount of policies and

:40:01.:40:04.

after the European elections... After you are standing in an

:40:05.:40:08.

election... We are talk being the general election here, aren't we?

:40:09.:40:12.

What other political parties have put their manifesto on the table

:40:13.:40:16.

yet? UKIP is no different. Our policies are being costed out. We

:40:17.:40:20.

don't want to make promises we can't and we will have policies coming

:40:21.:40:27.

forward. If someone says to you in a town like Boston in Lincolnshire

:40:28.:40:31.

where they are exercised about the fact that so-called flexible labour

:40:32.:40:37.

markets resulted in local people seeing the going rate for cutting

:40:38.:40:44.

cauliflower and cabbages come down. You can have a free-market policy,

:40:45.:40:48.

what have you got to say about that? If you go to those places the Polish

:40:49.:40:53.

community that came in before are worried about the impact of Romanian

:40:54.:40:58.

and Bulgarian immigration... You have not answered the question. What

:40:59.:41:03.

have you got to say about the doub down sides which is a huge issue in

:41:04.:41:07.

the places we are talking about? If we left the European Union we

:41:08.:41:11.

wouldn't have such a pressure on labour markets. We have not nearly

:41:12.:41:16.

one million young people unemployed because jobs are being taken away

:41:17.:41:20.

for people. They can't get that initial foot on the job ladder. Is

:41:21.:41:23.

this really about leaving the European Union? Is it something to

:41:24.:41:27.

do with immigration? It is about both because you can't divorce the

:41:28.:41:31.

two, can you? When you are in the European Union, we have an open door

:41:32.:41:36.

policy and you cannot divorce the two. People say that 70% of the

:41:37.:41:41.

people in this country now, whether they support UKIP or not, are deeply

:41:42.:41:46.

concerned about the impact of immigration and that's not something

:41:47.:41:50.

any politician can afford to ignore and the three old parties ignored it

:41:51.:41:58.

for too long. You are agreeing? I am a journalist. I am on the left of

:41:59.:42:02.

politics and no question that the matter of immigration is hugely

:42:03.:42:05.

important in all this and the political classes have yet to come

:42:06.:42:08.

up with any satisfactory answers. Thank you very much.

:42:09.:42:16.

The Guardian has news that the Conservatives are planning to have

:42:17.:42:20.

an attack on windfarms in their manifesto for the elections next

:42:21.:42:26.

year. The Daily Mail has a story about immigration, illegal migrants

:42:27.:42:29.

trying to get on to the back of lorries at Calais. The Times, our

:42:30.:42:37.

weather forecasts are going to get better because of some breakthrough

:42:38.:42:45.

in the world of me ter rolling. There is a four week wait to see

:42:46.:42:53.

some GPs. The Daily Express has cottoned on to this mood our guests

:42:54.:42:58.

were talking about, there is a new migrant flood on the way.

:42:59.:43:02.

Well, that's not quite everything. Before we go, foreign ministers from

:43:03.:43:05.

all over NATO announced the suspension of all practical civilian

:43:06.:43:08.

and military co-operation with Russia. It would have been

:43:09.:43:20.

surprising had they not. What's more they can or would do to get Russia

:43:21.:43:24.

to back off from Ukraine is less than clear. The distinctive

:43:25.:43:27.

character of this conflict is the extent to which it has elements both

:43:28.:43:30.

international and civil. Even families have been split down the

:43:31.:43:36.

middle. Have We're going to be played out in a moment by two

:43:37.:43:39.

Ukrainian twins, Sonya and Anna Kupriienko who perform as the Bloom

:43:40.:43:42.

Twins. Just before that, let's have a word. Who is who?

:43:43.:43:48.

Doesn't matter! All right. Why is it when we look at

:43:49.:43:55.

your country from outside, a lot of Ukrainians are like Putin, aren't

:43:56.:44:02.

they? Yes, that's right. Is your family split? No. Not quite. If we

:44:03.:44:07.

are talking about grandparents and our parents, there is a friction

:44:08.:44:14.

between them. Our grandparents live in Moscow and our parents live in

:44:15.:44:20.

Kiev. So there is friction about that. You hear different stories and

:44:21.:44:29.

no one knows the real one. Don't get me wrong, we are not into politics

:44:30.:44:34.

so we're just guessing here. Hang on. The premise you are here is

:44:35.:44:38.

you do have political commitments and you care about what happens in

:44:39.:44:42.

your country? We care about that, but we cannot know like a proper

:44:43.:44:46.

story about it because no one tells the proper story.

:44:47.:44:53.

We know from our prospective because we see what our family told us, what

:44:54.:45:00.

my family told me, what our grandparents told me and what I can

:45:01.:45:04.

see from different media channels. It is so dimp. I can't -- different.

:45:05.:45:08.

I can't know perfectly well because it is different. You are sensible.

:45:09.:45:12.

You don't care too much about politics. Many young people... I

:45:13.:45:16.

care about my country. That's what I was going to get to.

:45:17.:45:23.

Most societies young people have other concerns other than politics.

:45:24.:45:28.

Before that I wasn't into politics at all. Right now, I do care about

:45:29.:45:32.

what is happening right now with my family, with people in Ukraine, with

:45:33.:45:37.

Ukraine, but again, I just don't know what is going on, but the only

:45:38.:45:40.

thing that I would like to change, I don't get the thing that Russia and

:45:41.:45:47.

Ukraine are split. I would like them like brothers and sisters. We are

:45:48.:46:00.

similar, but different. They don't need to argue, they just

:46:01.:46:03.

need to be together. They just need to care about each other like we

:46:04.:46:08.

sometimes do. We are going to let Sonia and Anna

:46:09.:46:16.

get plugged into their instruments. And they are going to perform their

:46:17.:46:24.

cover of Bob Marley's protest song Get Up Stand Up which they say they

:46:25.:46:32.

chose against Viktor Yanukovych's

:46:33.:46:37.

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