19/05/2014 Newsnight


19/05/2014

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Would you want National Heritage living next door? You

:00:00.:00:13.

Would you like Nigel Farage living next door, we find out what UKIP's

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plans are and unsavoury foreigners. Everything you wanted to know about

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Europe and were afraid to ask, these three shed light on the lumbering

:00:27.:00:34.

workings of Europe. And we have the pervert's guide to Europe in this

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cornucopia of all things European. Some of the latest opinion polls

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suggest that when we vote in the elections to the European Parliament

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later this week a party which has never won a general election might

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come top of the poll. Other polls show different predicted results and

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there is many a slip, but we seem to be in unchartered waters. Before we

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talk to the extraordinarily shy and retiring leader of UKIP, Nigel

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Farage, we trace how we got here. The other parties may have been

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making plans for Nigel Farage, The other parties may have been

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those plans aren't obviously working. According to some polls his

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party could be heading for outright victory, first place in Thursday's

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European Parliament elections. Although 40% of people say UKIP is

:01:35.:01:38.

out-of-touch with modern Britain it is all about the past, et cetera,

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even more people, around half say that UKIP is raising issues that

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other parties don't really want to talk about. That's not to say his

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campaign has gone flawlessly, a string of members, activists and

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candidates going off message, and some pretty uncomfortable interview,

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like this on LBC. I made a comment that wasn't intended to say any more

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that I felt uncomfortable about the rate and pace and change. It was you

:02:09.:02:14.

found it uncomfortable about people around you speaking foreign

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languages, your own wife speaks Germany, are you uncomfortable. What

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about not wanting to live next door to Romanians. What about if a group

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of Romanian men moved in next door to you. What about a group of German

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children? You know that to you. What about a group of German

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same. What is the difference? We want a debate on quantity and

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quality as well. That led to a full page advert in the Telegraph

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attempting to put his comments in context, he was tired and hadn't,

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pressed himself well he told interviewers. He was definitely

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right to apologise, they were offensive comments and a racial

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slur, I don't think he should have said them, he's certainly right to

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say sorry. Is he a racist? I think he has said in recent days some

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pretty unpleasant things, even he himself has had to admit he got it

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wrong, and so I will leave others to judge. What I have heard from some

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of the candidates, some of the donors to the party, there is a

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succession of pretty appalling things. Will this big party

:03:18.:03:21.

condemnation make any difference to the enthusiasm of UKIP's potential

:03:22.:03:25.

supporters. There is nothing we are saying here that isn't true. Someone

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who has studied the rise of the party believes it is

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counter-productive. parties and commentators are not

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going to get anywhere simply framing UKIP as racist party. Those European

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countries that have UKIP as racist party. Those European

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right parties for 20, 30 years realised this long ago in the

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right parties for 20, 30 years early 90s, you simply

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right parties for 20, 30 years organisation or is it not, but why

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is it that the British working-class have never

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is it that the British working-class our politics. Will this anger

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translate into seats at the general election next year? Don't be so sure

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say the pollsters. The main thing is because everybody gets terribly

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excited about the result its, particularly if UKIP managers to

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come out a-- manages to come out ahead, and the odds of that is going

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down. But main leaders get trounced in the European elections and go on

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to win stonking elections. That is what Mr Blair was good at and the

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Conservatives have done it as well. It doesn't have much relation to

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what will happen next year. Nigel Farage a can at least claim to have

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won one battle, the other politicians are now taking

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won one battle, the other seriously. And the man himself is

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won one battle, the other with us now. Your slogan, "we want

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our country back", back from whom? It is given away. We are governed

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from Brussels, everyone is in denial, whether it is where our

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legislation is made who decides whether Pfizer

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legislation is made who decides AstraZeneca, how to control of

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farming or what is left of our fishing. These are not decide by men

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and women we vote for in general elections. What is your problem with

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Romanians? I have no problem with Romanians, I have a big problem with

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Romania. I have visited the country, communism failed a few years ago,

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and it hasn't made the transition to western democracy. There are a

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minority there of Roma treated unimaginably, and the country is in

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the grip of organised crime. Joining the European Union for them meant

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richer pickings. I have no problem with Romanians coming to Britain on

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work permits, taking part in life here. But I have a huge problem with

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our Border Agency and police not being able to stop known criminal

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gangs coming through Dover. But you don't go on about any other

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nationality apart from Romanians in the manifesto, here it is page 2, an

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open-door to crime, 22,000 Romanians held for crimes in London, you don't

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say that about Poles? Pro-rat a the are you -- pro-rata the Romanian

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problem is more serious, because it is organised crime and people

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trafficking and young teenagers brought to London and made do all

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sorts of things. As a civilised country we shouldn't allow that to

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happen in London or elsewhere. Let's have a look at your advertisment in

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the Telegraph this morning, when you said in that advertisment that 7% of

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crimes across the EU are committed by Romanians, do you want to

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withdraw that now and apologise or wait a couple of minutes? It is 7%

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of criminal networks across the European Union are from Romania.

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That isn't what you said, it was 7% of crimes? What I could have gone on

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to say and perhaps should have gone on to say was that 90%, 90% of card

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skimming across the entire European Union is caused by gangs from

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Romania and Bulgaria. Let's have a look at it. I know what it says. It

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says 7% of crimes? It was simplified. It was wrong? Well, it

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was criminal networks not crime. According Europol it is wrong? If

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they say it is wrong, 7% of criminal networks across Europe are Romanian.

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That is not the same of 7% of crimes? You haven't challenged me on

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the arrests and 92 ATM crime. There is no figure that is reliable and

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obtainable on that at all, you quote a policeman in a television

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documentary, don't you? Yes, and actually the figure... That is

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unverifiable? The figure that has been used is quoted by every

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national newspaper. And until today it has not been questioned. We can

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argue about figures but... These things matter? Do we or do we not

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have a problem with organised criminal gangs coming into this

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country, and the one country in the grip of it worse than anybody else

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is Romania. No that is not true. According to Europol the most

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dangerous set of gangs are actually Italian? There are 60 million

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Italians and there are 21 million Romanians, it is a question of

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scale, on a pro-rata basis, unarguably, the biggest problem, not

:08:35.:08:38.

just for Britain, but it is felt in Spain, France and elsewhere, it is

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coming from Romania, it gets to the heart of what do we want our

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relationship to be with countries like Romania or Bulgaria or whatever

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it may be. My argument is we want to trade with them, be friendly with

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them, be completely open for their people to come here on work permits

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and work here and take part in the life of our country. Surely common

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sense says we should have quality control at Dover and elsewhere and

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be able to stop known criminal gangs from coming into Britain. Let me ask

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you a very simple question, do you think it is the responsibility of

:09:11.:09:14.

politicians to do whatever they can to diminish and discourage racism? I

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certainly do. And I think that actually what uncontrolled

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immigration to Britain has done has bred a new form of racism. I have

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seen all over the country, I talk to people who say, I hate to say this,

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I have never felt like this, but I'm beginning to feel a degree of empty

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towards communities I'm living with, such is the pace of change in my

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communities. You really think what you have done in the last few days

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has helped discourage racism? Let's put it like this, if what I just

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said to you twice, if we had Romanians coming to Britain, on work

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permits, with the necessary checks, then nobody would feel if a group of

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Romanian men moved in next door that there would be a problem. So

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relations between communities would be better, not worse. And you would

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be more alarmed by a group of Romanian member moving into the

:10:08.:10:11.

house next door than a group of Pole, Italian, Nigerians or Somalis?

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This is not my comment. My comment, the question was would people be

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concerned if a group of Romanian men moved in next door. Let me be clear,

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I did not want this to dominate. You said Romanians? No, the question

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asked me about Romanians and I tried to bat the question away. I didn't

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want to have this debate, and I regret using the word that I did. I

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regret not taking it on. Here is your manifesto, page two of the

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manifesto starts banging on immediately about Romanians? There

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is a crime problem. Should we not have quantity control and quality

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control into Britain. This the S nationality you talk about? Because

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pro-rata that is the most intense problem. I agree with you, I think

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actually if we have people who come to Britain and commit crime we

:11:03.:11:06.

should be able to get rid of them. We can't even do that. If we can do

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that we should be able to stop them reentering the country, and under

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European rules we can't do any of those things. Can we look at one or

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two other pledges in the manifesto, you want more grammar schools? Not

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in the European elections. Local councils you do? Certainly, I will

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be fighting for that and campaigning for that. You want to restore

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abolished bus routes, you want to reduce business rates, these are

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commitments? These are promises for what UKIP councillors will campaign

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for on councils. Will campaign for? Of course, until you win control of

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a council, and we're not going to win control of council this year.

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How do you propose to pay for it? Most of the councils are up by

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thirds, we won't be controlling any councils of that there is no doubt.

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But this is what UKIP councillors will be campaigning for. How will

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the promises be paid for? Why would having grammar schools cost more

:12:08.:12:13.

money? Restoring abolished bus routes certainly would, and business

:12:14.:12:18.

rates would cost too? That would depend, our high streets are full of

:12:19.:12:22.

shops not paying business rates, there is an argument that says if

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you get business rates right you maybe get more revenue. We have had

:12:26.:12:30.

this in the past. You also promised to get rid of the so called spare

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bedroom tax, that of course is a Government, that is central

:12:35.:12:38.

Government? Yeah. How would that be paid for? At the moment, it wouldn't

:12:39.:12:44.

be any cost at all, but frankly it hasn't even been implemented.

:12:45.:12:48.

Councils can't do that, this is just a lot of airy fairy eye-catching

:12:49.:12:53.

nonsense? We want to cut public spending in this country,

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nonsense? We want to cut public will come up and these are

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commitments to will come up and these are

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do. Our job in a general election is to show how we can cut the budget.

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do. Our job in a general election is Foreign aid is a very good start.

:13:10.:13:12.

European Union contributions are a very good start, we are getting near

:13:13.:13:14.

2% cuts, there very good start, we are getting near

:13:15.:13:19.

throughout the public sector, since 1997, the fat cat salary, the growth

:13:20.:13:23.

of middle management, the vast growth

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of middle management, the vast areas we

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of middle management, the vast What sort of response are you

:13:29.:13:29.

getting on What sort of response are you

:13:30.:13:35.

number that do, across a very wide spectrum, this is fascinating but

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all Labour voters and nonvoters and Lib Dem voters along with ex-Tories,

:13:41.:13:45.

amongst those who support us has been very strong. Strong to the

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point that about 60% of our voters out on Thursday say they will vote

:13:50.:13:53.

for us at a general election, in a by-election, in local elections.

:13:54.:13:57.

Amongst those not well disposed to UKIP I have to say that the

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campaign, the singling out of some of our own idiots who have said

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silly things on Twitter and Facebook, stupidities that have been

:14:08.:14:11.

held up to represent the view of the party have, I'm afraid, led to a

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growing number of people despising UKIP a believing that we are a

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racist party which we most certainly not. Do you feel hurt by that? Yes I

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do, and I feel you know. In week there have been 17 councillors

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from a Lib Dem, Labour and Conservative

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from a Lib Dem, Labour and arrested for a variety of

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everything from child pornography and assaults, you

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everything from child pornography Yet someone who has joined

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everything from child pornography slipped through the net

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everything from child pornography told the truth on

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has damaged in the minds of some people what UKIP is. I can't stand

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that. As party leader you have to take responsibility? Yes, but I

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can't micromanage everything. If you take responsibility? Yes, but I

:15:06.:15:10.

were interviewing Clegg, Cameron or Miliband. , you wouldn't ask about

:15:11.:15:17.

stupidities of people out there. If you can't run your own party how can

:15:18.:15:23.

we trust you with anything bigger? We do run our party, everyone saying

:15:24.:15:27.

offensive things we will boot out and make the process of becoming a

:15:28.:15:32.

candidate tougher. These charges, levelled at us because of what

:15:33.:15:34.

others have done, levelled at us because of what

:15:35.:15:40.

had a former BNP activist and Labour have had BNP defectors, we are

:15:41.:15:44.

threatening and challenging the establishment, they very scared to

:15:45.:15:48.

what we can do to their vote on Thursday. They have really clubbed

:15:49.:15:52.

together and tried to hurl as much abuse at UKIP as they K-FOR those

:15:53.:15:56.

that don't like u they really don't like us, they have been pretty

:15:57.:16:00.

offensive towards us in many cases, but actually for those who support

:16:01.:16:05.

us it has almost stiffened their resolve. How many more nutcases in

:16:06.:16:10.

the party? I have given you 17 from the three established parties

:16:11.:16:15.

arrested in the last week! I have to say I have just spent

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three-and-a-half weeks in the length and breadth of the UK. I have met

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runs of our candidates standing for council, and I think we have a

:16:24.:16:30.

fantastic group of people. We have a team building, an open membership.

:16:31.:16:35.

You have homophobes in the party? You name people who haven't,

:16:36.:16:38.

particularly those over the age of 70 who were brought up at a time

:16:39.:16:43.

when they were taught at school this was wrong. What about Roger Helmer?

:16:44.:16:51.

70. That's an excuse? Just think about this, he was brought up in a

:16:52.:16:55.

traditional biblical upbringing, he lived as a young man in the country

:16:56.:17:01.

where home sexual behaviour was an impressible offence, so this

:17:02.:17:05.

generation were taught to believe this was wrong. And I think for many

:17:06.:17:10.

people of that age and older, they still find it difficult, Roger has

:17:11.:17:15.

said he is now relaxed about it and his views have moved on. Social

:17:16.:17:20.

attitudes do change. Yes they do. We shouldn't demonise people. They have

:17:21.:17:24.

particularly changed on a subject like race, would it be OK to be a

:17:25.:17:31.

racist atp 0? -- at 70? No and actually you would find very few of

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those f you went to France, Germany or elsewhere, right across Europe,

:17:36.:17:38.

you would find racist attitudes, this country has been the most

:17:39.:17:42.

relaxed country in the whole of the western world, when it comes to

:17:43.:17:46.

different cultures, different religion, offering refugee status,

:17:47.:17:55.

my family, came into that category. But Roger is classic of that

:17:56.:17:59.

generation, but he's now accepting that the world has moved on. When

:18:00.:18:05.

someone like Mr Helmer says that people find homosexuality viscerally

:18:06.:18:12.

repulsive, that is not right? No, he wrote that 12 years ago as a

:18:13.:18:16.

Conservative, when he was a Conservative. Now he's UKIP you do.

:18:17.:18:20.

He was a younger man? He was, but still born in the same year, but it

:18:21.:18:24.

is interesting as I say he was a Conservative. If you are a

:18:25.:18:28.

Conservative backbencher all of this goes unnoticed, if you are UKIP is

:18:29.:18:32.

any capacity it becomes a big story. Let me ask you one personal

:18:33.:18:36.

question, you explained away some of your difficulties last week by

:18:37.:18:42.

saying you were very tired? Well, do you know something, often you get

:18:43.:18:45.

into interviews with aggressive interviews, you know the sort of

:18:46.:18:48.

people I'm talking about, and they will fire a series of questions at

:18:49.:18:53.

awe, I wry to avoid conflict in that interview. I try to avoid getting

:18:54.:18:57.

into the crime figures and everything else by saying you know

:18:58.:19:01.

what I mean. And I regret saying that because that gave people the

:19:02.:19:05.

impression that I was saying, a nod and a wink, we don't really like

:19:06.:19:10.

Romanians. And I regret doing that, but I do absolutely insist we must

:19:11.:19:14.

have a proper debate about this, and we must get back control of our

:19:15.:19:18.

borders. But your health is OK? My health is fine. Yeah. Nigel Farage,

:19:19.:19:27.

thank you. More than any other exercise of democracy in this

:19:28.:19:29.

country elections to the European Parliament are probably the ones

:19:30.:19:33.

which most perplex us. Who are these men and women asking for our

:19:34.:19:36.

support, and what will they do if they get it? The electoral system is

:19:37.:19:42.

some weird method named after an obscure Belgian, how many people can

:19:43.:19:45.

explain properly what the European Parliament does. Worry no more, our

:19:46.:19:51.

policy editor Chris Cook will explain everything you wanted know

:19:52.:19:54.

about Europe but afraid to ask. Not everything but a start at least.

:19:55.:19:57.

First, who are we voting for and what do they cost us?

:19:58.:20:08.

The European Union is fatastically complicated, that is why we decided

:20:09.:20:11.

to strip things down a little. We would lay is bare. We asked for your

:20:12.:20:17.

questions about the EU, and boy, did you send them in. We can deal with a

:20:18.:20:27.

lot of them by answering one big question, what exactly is the

:20:28.:20:32.

European Parliament? That's a very good question. The European

:20:33.:20:38.

Parliament is officially the EU's most important institution. That's

:20:39.:20:44.

because it is directly elected. It doesn't have the right to start new

:20:45.:20:47.

legislation. In that respect it is less powerful than our parliament in

:20:48.:20:52.

Westminster, for example. The European Parliament can only amend

:20:53.:20:55.

or block things that come through from the commission, that's the EU's

:20:56.:21:00.

executive. Now that means that it acts as break or accelerator on what

:21:01.:21:06.

the EU does as a whole. So whether you want more or less of Europe, the

:21:07.:21:10.

European Parliament really matters. That means that this week's

:21:11.:21:15.

elections to pick Britain's 73 MEPs really matters too. So why don't we

:21:16.:21:25.

talk about it more? Part of the reason is you don't get the same

:21:26.:21:28.

intrigue you get at Westminster, with Governments falling and

:21:29.:21:32.

forming. Who would want to watch a house of cards set in Strasbourg,

:21:33.:21:35.

whatever happens the European Parliament will puff along, dealing

:21:36.:21:39.

with whatever legislation it gets sent.

:21:40.:21:43.

And it is just weird, it is multilingual, some MEPs have

:21:44.:21:48.

ten-times as many voters as other MEPs, in moves, every month the

:21:49.:21:57.

whole parliament goes to have Strasbourg for two days. That costs

:21:58.:22:01.

200 million euros a year. The next question is how much do MEPs

:22:02.:22:05.

actually get paid? That question came through a lot. The short answer

:22:06.:22:18.

95,482 euros a year. They get perks, a generous pension, and when all the

:22:19.:22:22.

voters decide it is time for them to stop being an MEP, they get a

:22:23.:22:29.

handsome payoff. How much are they worth those extra bits? Complicated,

:22:30.:22:34.

to a man of 45 years old elected, the pension and the payoff are worth

:22:35.:22:44.

equivalent of 45,000 euros in cash. That brings it up to ?100,000. And

:22:45.:22:51.

there are allowances, for every day that MEPs turn up at the parliament

:22:52.:22:56.

at the get 304 euros of subsitence allowances. It is a very comfortable

:22:57.:23:08.

life. With us now are the editor of Reuters and the author of the

:23:09.:23:14.

"in-out question", Stephaine Flanders and Tim Stanley historian

:23:15.:23:20.

and columnist. The number of us voting will be low, most of us not

:23:21.:23:24.

voting I suspect, why is that do you think? I think we don't know who our

:23:25.:23:32.

MEPs are. They are second rate politicians, not to say that all MPs

:23:33.:23:37.

are first rate politicians. And despite what people like Nigel

:23:38.:23:41.

Farage was telling you just now, although the European Parliament is

:23:42.:23:44.

more important than it was, it is not nearly as important as our

:23:45.:23:49.

voting for our MPs at Westminster. Stephaine, do you think the way that

:23:50.:23:54.

the economic crisis has been handled has made things worse? I

:23:55.:23:58.

the economic crisis has been handled have ended up with a situation where

:23:59.:23:59.

certainly within the eurozone have ended up with a situation where

:24:00.:24:05.

the eurozone crisis is have ended up with a situation where

:24:06.:24:08.

ways more integration, more have ended up with a situation where

:24:09.:24:10.

towards a more federal Europe. Yet have ended up with a situation where

:24:11.:24:17.

less of as a result of the crisis is more integration and

:24:18.:24:21.

less of as a result of the crisis is powers. Hugo is right, that all the

:24:22.:24:24.

key decisions are at powers. Hugo is right, that all the

:24:25.:24:31.

exciting summits where David Cameron stands up for our rights, and Angela

:24:32.:24:34.

Merkel will have a set-to stands up for our rights, and Angela

:24:35.:24:39.

French President. I don't think anyone is taught that anything

:24:40.:24:42.

important happens at the European Parliament. There is a paradox

:24:43.:24:46.

important happens at the European everything and dominates our lives,

:24:47.:24:48.

and the fact that everything and dominates our lives,

:24:49.:24:51.

out for it is irrelevant. I don't think

:24:52.:24:54.

British people it is irrelevant. I don't think

:24:55.:24:58.

European. If you grow up in continental

:24:59.:25:00.

European. If you grow up in European countries you feel an

:25:01.:25:01.

European. If you grow up in investment in the project. People in

:25:02.:25:02.

Britain see the European insurance scheme. It is good we are

:25:03.:25:05.

a member of it because it insurance scheme. It is good we are

:25:06.:25:09.

us out if things go wrong. I don't think people feel the connection

:25:10.:25:13.

with it they do with the ordinary MPs and the British parliament. I

:25:14.:25:17.

agree with you there, but I think there is apathy across Europe for

:25:18.:25:21.

the elections. If you look last time around we only had a turnout of 35%,

:25:22.:25:26.

Europe as a whole it was about 43%, it was a bit better but not as

:25:27.:25:30.

though all the French and Belgians and Dutch and Portuguese were going

:25:31.:25:37.

out in their 70-80%. I think the problem is the European Parliament,

:25:38.:25:41.

really we shouldn't have had a European Parliament that was

:25:42.:25:44.

directly elected, we should have stuck with a system where there was

:25:45.:25:49.

a European assembly where national MPs were sent to it. That was how it

:25:50.:25:55.

was until 1979. Less and participation, extraordinary. They

:25:56.:25:58.

had a connection with the constituents? And people know OK who

:25:59.:26:05.

their MPs are, I like what Boris Johnson has said, we should go back

:26:06.:26:10.

to the system of national MPs being sent to the European Parliament and

:26:11.:26:14.

they should be chosen by lottery. But also the national politicians

:26:15.:26:16.

would have to take responsibility for some of the decisions being

:26:17.:26:20.

taken. Again I think it is particularly true in the eurozone

:26:21.:26:25.

countries and less so here. Part of the problem in the last couple of

:26:26.:26:28.

years this perception, a true perception that really important

:26:29.:26:33.

decisions about that will further intergrate the eurozone countries

:26:34.:26:37.

with each other are being taken by Government, but without any real

:26:38.:26:42.

accountability by the Government. The public are carefully not given

:26:43.:26:48.

choice on this, that is an elite project. The Government is chosen by

:26:49.:26:53.

the people, the system where the Government have a lot of say over

:26:54.:26:58.

who Europe operates is a good thing. We know who Cameron is, and the

:26:59.:27:05.

Germans, Merkel, and it is natural the political leaders are having the

:27:06.:27:10.

biggest say. I'm impressed that you are in favour of less democratic

:27:11.:27:15.

participation. The problem is it is so big and there is a sense of it

:27:16.:27:18.

controlling everything, but it is the problem of distance and if

:27:19.:27:22.

national Governments surrender sovereignty to it, people don't feel

:27:23.:27:25.

they have the personal relationship you have with your MP and a much

:27:26.:27:30.

smaller parliament within your own country. This is part of the revolt

:27:31.:27:34.

against Europe, it is not just Britain flirting with UKIP this

:27:35.:27:38.

week, there are a whole range of parties far worse that Mr Nigel

:27:39.:27:43.

Farage's, but they will do well because everyone is rejecting the

:27:44.:27:48.

powerful and big system. No understand why you want it to have

:27:49.:27:51.

more democratic power, then you will immediately say it is too powerful.

:27:52.:27:55.

I don't think it can ever reach a point of democratic participation

:27:56.:28:02.

that will make it legitimate. You guys can argue about something else,

:28:03.:28:05.

because the argument that we couldn't leave the European Union

:28:06.:28:09.

without suffering serious economic damage is key, set against that is

:28:10.:28:13.

what it costs us to belong to this club. Time to bring back the man

:28:14.:28:17.

with the mechanical arms, Chris Cook, the is the EU good for our

:28:18.:28:27.

bank balance. Are you sitting comably, here is a question --

:28:28.:28:31.

comfortably, here is a question that came up, is the EU very wasteful? In

:28:32.:28:43.

2012 the EU spent 139 billion euros, 5% was frittered away in error, it

:28:44.:28:49.

doesn't mean it was stolen or wasted it means the proper processes

:28:50.:28:54.

weren't used. How much does it cost, in 2013 our subsidy to the EU came

:28:55.:29:00.

to ?14 billion. We get stuff back for that. Not least about ?5 billion

:29:01.:29:06.

in cash. I say cash, it was really more like a gift voucher, you have

:29:07.:29:10.

to spend it on certain stuff. Nonetheless it brought down our net

:29:11.:29:19.

contribution to ?8. 5 billion. Is it a good deal? If the UK economy were

:29:20.:29:24.

1% larger because of our membership of the EU, and all the trade

:29:25.:29:27.

benefits it brings, it would probably pay for itself, so does it?

:29:28.:29:33.

A new study by the London School of Economics, estimates that Britain

:29:34.:29:36.

has done very well out of its EU membership. They worked out about

:29:37.:29:40.

15% of our economy comes from selling stuff to Europe. They also

:29:41.:29:44.

estimated that in the best case scenario, if we were to leave, our

:29:45.:29:49.

economy would shrink by just over 2%. That is about a year of normal

:29:50.:29:54.

economic growth. One consequence of being an EU member is we have to

:29:55.:29:58.

follow a lot of EU rules. And some people believe that if we were freed

:29:59.:30:03.

from that obligation we would be able to deregulate and be

:30:04.:30:08.

competitive when it comes to selling to the fast growing countries of

:30:09.:30:12.

East Asia and South America. There is a wrinkle, if we could deregulate

:30:13.:30:17.

to pursue the distant markets it is more likely we would be kicked out

:30:18.:30:22.

of a lot of markets in Europe. So trade with Asia would have to sky

:30:23.:30:28.

rocket to make up for it. That raises the question of just how much

:30:29.:30:32.

the EU's rules and regulations costs the UK. The EU regulates an enormous

:30:33.:30:38.

amount. But the real weight varies with your business. For example, if

:30:39.:30:42.

you are a graphic designer you probably won't have much effect. But

:30:43.:30:46.

if you sell chemicals it will have an enormous weight. So you often

:30:47.:30:50.

hear estimates for the proportion of British laws that come from

:30:51.:30:53.

Brussels, or the cost of European regulation. But in truth, the effect

:30:54.:30:58.

of the European Union is very varied, it is really reshaping our

:30:59.:31:02.

society, it is helping some businesses and it is hurting others.

:31:03.:31:10.

Why can't we get straight answer on this? Part of the reason it is by

:31:11.:31:16.

definition a meaningless question. We have no idea what a post-EU

:31:17.:31:23.

scenario would be. No-one has any incentive to tell the truth. We

:31:24.:31:26.

don't know what a negotiation would look like. If we don't know what the

:31:27.:31:29.

situation afterwards would look like, how you could possibly compare

:31:30.:31:34.

with the situation now, it is an inherently impossible task. The

:31:35.:31:37.

truth is clear from an economic standpoint, we have had enormous

:31:38.:31:41.

benefits from being in the EU. You could never say what without it but

:31:42.:31:45.

we have had enormous benefits. The problem and slight of hand that

:31:46.:31:48.

politicians are being caught out on is we have tended to talk about how

:31:49.:31:52.

we like the single market and we just don't like the bureaucracy and

:31:53.:31:56.

Britain is always in favour of the single market and we have benefitted

:31:57.:32:01.

from that, but the single market is the free movement of people,

:32:02.:32:05.

difficult politically, the free movement of goods requiring a

:32:06.:32:08.

significant set of rules to have the market. It is those rules people

:32:09.:32:12.

don't like and consider to be EU bureaucracy, and free movement of

:32:13.:32:16.

capital we sort of like but we worry about the City. At the heart, the

:32:17.:32:20.

awkward thing, the reason why these arguments about Europe have become

:32:21.:32:24.

very difficult for supporters of our membership of the EU, is that

:32:25.:32:27.

actually we're not sure if we are in favour of this stuff any more, the

:32:28.:32:31.

stuff that was at the core of our argument for membership? I'm in

:32:32.:32:36.

favour of it. The four freedoms Stephaine has spoken about have

:32:37.:32:40.

enriched our economy and society. I make no apology for being in favour

:32:41.:32:46.

of free movement of people. The people who have come to Britain who

:32:47.:32:52.

have got about 2. 3 million of them from t rest of the EU. They are

:32:53.:32:59.

young, hard working and paying their taxes and arriving at a time when

:33:00.:33:02.

educated in their home country, we are not paying for their education.

:33:03.:33:06.

They are not so old they are a burden on the National Health

:33:07.:33:09.

Service. That is the economic advantage of them. On top of that

:33:10.:33:13.

there is a cultural enrichment we have from having all of these

:33:14.:33:17.

nationalities coming to London. And there is also the freedom our people

:33:18.:33:22.

have to go and work and live across the channel. Don't forget there are

:33:23.:33:27.

2. 2 million, almost as many Brits living, about a million of them in

:33:28.:33:32.

Spain. So the free movement, the treaty of Rome that set off

:33:33.:33:36.

Spain. So the free movement, the the biggest charters

:33:37.:33:39.

Spain. So the free movement, the that the world

:33:40.:33:41.

Spain. So the free movement, the is a

:33:42.:33:43.

Spain. So the free movement, the looking like? I

:33:44.:33:46.

Spain. So the free movement, the possible, the things we want like

:33:47.:33:47.

proper controls over borders freedom to say no to people coming

:33:48.:33:52.

in. We won't be given that, we only have the support

:33:53.:34:00.

benefit tourism of Holland and Germany. Stephaine is right talking

:34:01.:34:06.

about leaving the EU, we are talking hypotheticals, but there are facts

:34:07.:34:11.

that suggest we can flourish. Still the sixth largest economy in the

:34:12.:34:14.

that suggest we can flourish. Still world, and only 10% of the GDP

:34:15.:34:20.

dependant on Europe, and we sell more to them than they us. It is

:34:21.:34:25.

dependant on Europe, and we sell interesting Norway and Switzerland

:34:26.:34:27.

outside with the EU trade more with the EU than we do. There are certain

:34:28.:34:34.

fundamental economic factors. They are small country and they trade

:34:35.:34:38.

more than big countries as a proportion of their GDP. That is a

:34:39.:34:43.

statistical quirk you have mentioned. A new

:34:44.:34:46.

statistical quirk you have would mean complying with a lot of

:34:47.:34:48.

the same rules. Lots of would mean complying with a lot of

:34:49.:34:53.

we need to be out from it. But one argument euro-sceptics are dubious

:34:54.:34:58.

about if we left lots of regulations would disappear, and we would have

:34:59.:34:59.

about if we left lots of regulations to sign up because we need the

:35:00.:35:01.

business. America and China needs to investor in Britain is not the EU

:35:02.:35:08.

but America. Stepping outside means investor in Britain is not the EU

:35:09.:35:17.

lot of that trade is with Britain. give them access to the whole single

:35:18.:35:26.

market with 500 million people. This idea that we could be like the

:35:27.:35:30.

Swiss, it isn't a good argument. Take the City, you may not like the

:35:31.:35:35.

City, but it is 10% of our economy, financial services. If we were

:35:36.:35:37.

City, but it is 10% of our economy, wits land we would -- Switzerland we

:35:38.:35:42.

wouldn't have a passport, we have now a passport, our firms

:35:43.:35:45.

wouldn't have a passport, we have city can offer services right across

:35:46.:35:48.

the EU. If we were like Switzerland they couldn't. The Swiss have

:35:49.:35:51.

the EU. If we were like Switzerland a passport for their banks for years

:35:52.:35:58.

and the EU has denied it. If we put ourselves off from the City we will

:35:59.:36:03.

be... . The Financial Transaction Tax they want to put on. Only ten,

:36:04.:36:11.

one jumped out. If that happens it affects competitors doesn't it? Not

:36:12.:36:15.

much, the Financial Transaction Tax, I'm against it, but it has been

:36:16.:36:20.

diluted every month. Not only falling from 11-10%, it is confined

:36:21.:36:27.

now to shares and other derivatives it looks like our own stamp duty but

:36:28.:36:31.

at a lower rate. I'm not saying it is a good thing, but a damp squib.

:36:32.:36:36.

I'm more or less on your side on this. But surely you have to accept

:36:37.:36:39.

it is much harder to make these arguments now, it sound more like an

:36:40.:36:44.

elitist argument, it is wonderful being in London having lots of

:36:45.:36:48.

national toes, but the city is good for large arts of the south-east and

:36:49.:36:53.

parts the UK. But I think it has become a much more respectable

:36:54.:36:58.

intellectual argument to be outside. You can't deny that? It is not just

:36:59.:37:03.

the city, we can talk about the car industry it depends how much damage

:37:04.:37:08.

we suffer depending on how much we come out with and what the arangment

:37:09.:37:14.

is. Some people want us just to rely on our webship of the World Trade

:37:15.:37:18.

Organisation. If we were part of the World Trade Organisation there would

:37:19.:37:23.

be tarrifs on exports, taxes on all cars we export to the EU. Those

:37:24.:37:32.

taxes would be 0%. I'm not saying that is the only scenario, but that

:37:33.:37:36.

is what a credible euro-sceptic, Nigel Lawson is arguing for. I have

:37:37.:37:41.

to cut across you there. Can you store it up for later. We come to

:37:42.:37:45.

the most charged issue of all, the EU is all about open borders.

:37:46.:37:50.

Freedom of trade and freedom of movement. The European Union was not

:37:51.:37:54.

sold to us as a way of bringing large numbers of foreigners to this

:37:55.:37:58.

country, to work and live without let or hindrance. That is what has

:37:59.:38:07.

happened. On to your third block of questions, ready for it A number of

:38:08.:38:15.

pro-European viewers asked why talk about Europe as a thing that is done

:38:16.:38:18.

to us. We have MEPs in the parliament and ministers in the

:38:19.:38:21.

council. A large part of that sense comes down to one issue, European

:38:22.:38:26.

immigration and the feeling we never really had a vote about the extent

:38:27.:38:33.

of it. EU citizens can, of course, work in EU country and some people

:38:34.:38:37.

dislike the idea of not controlling our borders on principle. Others

:38:38.:38:42.

don't really mind. Let's take a look at some of the numbers. At the 2011

:38:43.:38:52.

census 2. 7 million people were registered born in another country.

:38:53.:38:55.

When people talk about European immigration they don't mean French

:38:56.:38:59.

and German people, they are thinking people further east. Since the fall

:39:00.:39:03.

of the Iron Curtain the European Union has been spreading east, it

:39:04.:39:07.

now includes portions of the former USSR itself. These new EU members

:39:08.:39:13.

are much poorer than Britain, a manufacturing worker in Poland can

:39:14.:39:17.

only expect to earn one quarter as much as their counterparts in

:39:18.:39:24.

Britain. That creates a pull drawing people into the UK. There are a

:39:25.:39:27.

million people living in the UK born in the so called A 8 countries,

:39:28.:39:32.

those are the nations that join the EU in Eastern Europe in 2004. It

:39:33.:39:41.

takes them to other rich European nations. But back in the year --

:39:42.:39:53.

2000, there was a disproportionate share. They are big numbers, but

:39:54.:39:57.

academics don't think there is a link between imdrags and employment

:39:58.:40:02.

nor crime. It is worth mentions immigration isn't a one-way street.

:40:03.:40:07.

1. 8 million British people have gone to live elsewhere in the EU.

:40:08.:40:11.

What effect does our EU membership have on all these numbers? Of course

:40:12.:40:15.

it increases them. It is not easy to say by how much. Remember Britain is

:40:16.:40:20.

a very open country, two thirds of our foreign born population comes

:40:21.:40:24.

from outside. So we shouldn't assume there wouldn't be immigration to

:40:25.:40:28.

Britain if we weren't EU members. Even so it is the issue that most

:40:29.:40:31.

people associate with the European Union. It is the explanation for why

:40:32.:40:37.

a lot of people feel there is a democratic deficit between them and

:40:38.:40:44.

Brussels. On past form most of us won't bother to vote in the

:40:45.:40:47.

elections to the European Parliament, and it is important to

:40:48.:40:50.

recall that most of the politicians in the parliament, the overwhelming

:40:51.:40:55.

majority aren't British. And nor are they overwhelmingly any other

:40:56.:40:59.

nationality. They are chosen by the many millions of voters of the EU in

:41:00.:41:06.

28 countries. One of them is the Shrove convenientian philosopher

:41:07.:41:10.

here tonight. Will you vote? No. Why not? Because I'm very pro-European,

:41:11.:41:20.

but I'm very critical of what Brussels and its bureaucracy stands

:41:21.:41:25.

for. I think that the lesson to the politicians should be as large as we

:41:26.:41:30.

can imagine boycott of votes, not to abolish Europe but to awaken it in a

:41:31.:41:35.

way. What has gone wrong? What is going wrong, I will answer it with a

:41:36.:41:42.

question, Freudian question, what does the woman want? Nobody knows

:41:43.:41:45.

that, but the question what does Europe want? I claim that it is

:41:46.:41:50.

obvious that at least three Europes are fighting. On the one hand it is

:41:51.:41:55.

the predominant what Brussels today stands for, Europe, it is just an

:41:56.:42:02.

efficient technocratic idea. We are entering the multisensory world so

:42:03.:42:06.

we have to be well organised to compete with other power centres and

:42:07.:42:11.

so on. I think that will not work. It is not good enough. Then we have

:42:12.:42:20.

what we saw at the beginning of our programme tonight. That is to say

:42:21.:42:26.

let as call it the populist anti-immigrant reaction. I think

:42:27.:42:30.

that first let's not underestimate them, they really do formulate some

:42:31.:42:35.

awe THNTic anxieties, fears of the people, but I think that the tragedy

:42:36.:42:42.

is they are just channelling in this direction fears which are not really

:42:43.:42:46.

generated by the poor Romanians and whoever. Yes, ordinary working-class

:42:47.:42:53.

people, leaving anxiety, but it is more about where global capitalism

:42:54.:42:57.

is, healthcare no longer functioning whatever you want, and so on so on.

:42:58.:43:04.

The logic of global capitalism is the problem, that is moving in a

:43:05.:43:08.

certain direction, outsourcing and so on. I think that in other words,

:43:09.:43:17.

in this sense I'm still a leftist. I think that the votes for this

:43:18.:43:22.

nationalist anti-immigrant parties are the votes which should have been

:43:23.:43:30.

leftist votes. Only a more radical new left can save Europe, I think.

:43:31.:43:36.

Because I think and as some kind of radical leftist I'm totally

:43:37.:43:41.

pro-European. I think Europe has introduced something which is

:43:42.:43:45.

incredibly important for the entire humanity. Greek democracy could

:43:46.:43:51.

straddle the European modernity. In all of this we have an idea of a

:43:52.:43:56.

community of equal people living in freedom in solidarity. I will not go

:43:57.:44:01.

in this poetry, I'm saying that this basic European legacy, I see it

:44:02.:44:08.

today threatened by global capitalism. Take China and

:44:09.:44:13.

Singapore, until now we could have said that capitalism and democracy

:44:14.:44:17.

go together. In the sense that even if we have 20 years of dictatorship

:44:18.:44:22.

in South Korea, when things start to function you have a demand for

:44:23.:44:26.

democracy. I doubt if this is still the case. The most... You are

:44:27.:44:32.

talking about China now? China, Singapore, South Korea, there is a

:44:33.:44:35.

new capitalism emerging and I don't think we can dismiss it. Let's go

:44:36.:44:41.

back to Europe for a moment or two, is there any way that you can

:44:42.:44:46.

imagine of forging some sort of European identity, so

:44:47.:44:51.

imagine of forging some sort of questions of migrants and an

:44:52.:44:54.

imagine of forging some sort of between nations no longer exist. We

:44:55.:44:56.

are talking something that is incredibly long-term here aren't we?

:44:57.:45:04.

It is no so easy, I will tell you why. Let's be serious. Do, let's.

:45:05.:45:12.

The problems we are facing today, are global problems, ecology, who

:45:13.:45:21.

will regulate biogen metrics, who will regulate the flow of financial

:45:22.:45:26.

capital and intellectual property. Global capital isn't today it is

:45:27.:45:30.

calling for some kind of global regulation. This is maybe worldwide

:45:31.:45:38.

our biggest challenge. I think the European way to do it while keeping

:45:39.:45:43.

the European legacy alive, equality and all that stuff we usually

:45:44.:45:49.

designate as welfare state. If it will not be done in the European

:45:50.:45:55.

way, it will be done in a much nastier way through some kind of

:45:56.:46:00.

universalised what we call capitalism and so on. I think this

:46:01.:46:06.

is a serious threat, even if we still have democracy, isn't it that

:46:07.:46:11.

they are becoming more and more insubstantial.

:46:12.:46:14.

Thank you. That's it, I will be back tomorrow with an interview with the

:46:15.:46:18.

former Italian Prime Minister, billionare and convicted fraudster,

:46:19.:46:24.

Silvio Berlusconi. Do you have a particular problem with Angela

:46:25.:46:31.

Merkel? Is it true you called her a BEEP lard cars? Well more of that

:46:32.:46:40.

tomorrow, also tomorrow, the Royal Opera House will be streaming a live

:46:41.:46:44.

performance on the Internet for the first time, it is La Traviata,

:46:45.:46:52.

performed by husband and wife Eileen Perez and Steven Costello. Here is a

:46:53.:46:55.

review.

:46:56.:47:03.

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