11/06/2014 Newsnight


11/06/2014

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman.


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Tonight, Iraq in chaos, another city seized by insurgents as the national

:00:00.:00:13.

army flees the scene. Why were warnings irregular in order and what

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can save the region from more of the same. Was it a problem of

:00:17.:00:21.

intervention or disengagment. A long way from this. We won, it's over,

:00:22.:00:28.

America, we brought to democracy to Iraq. As Iraqi rule clapses across a

:00:29.:00:34.

swathe of the north, worries grow that Turkey or Iran might want to

:00:35.:00:38.

intervene. The former secretary-general said he warned it

:00:39.:00:42.

would happen. When I was enjoy for Syria I did indicate that unless we

:00:43.:00:48.

find ways of resolving the Syrian crisis or containing it would spread

:00:49.:00:54.

through the region. Also tonight: Desperately seeking Juncker, we are

:00:55.:00:57.

in search of one of the most talked about men in Europe. No really.

:00:58.:01:03.

Excuse me, can you tell me where Mr Juncker is? Mr Juncker? And... .

:01:04.:01:10.

Snatching defeat from the jaws of, well, why is the English nation so

:01:11.:01:15.

cynical about its chances of victory in the World Cup, we will kick about

:01:16.:01:25.

a few ideas. It is hard to overestimate the

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danger Iraq is in tonight. A country on the verge of disintegration.

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Today Tikrit became the second city to fall into the hands of insurgents

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in two says. Isis a group once rejected by Al-Qaeda for its

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ferocity assaulted Government buildings and captured military

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hardware as security forces fled. No-one knows how many have been

:01:47.:01:52.

killed in Tikrit and Mosul, but more than half a million have fled. Why

:01:53.:01:57.

were warnings ignored, what is the ultimate aim of Isis, and how much

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is western intervention and disengagment to blame for where the

:02:02.:02:03.

country is today. We will be getting reaction from inside Iraq tonight,

:02:04.:02:09.

but first our diplomatic editor on the events.

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The fortunes of Iraq's Government have gone from bad to worse, with

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Jihadists taking over major centres, hundreds of thousands of people are

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fleeing. And more reports today of huge piles of cash seized, enemies

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beheaded and prisoners freed. There is a lot of concern that Prime

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Minister Al-Maliki has not led effectively, that he has in effect

:02:37.:02:40.

not had a good relationship as all with the Sunni leadership, he has

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driven the communities apart. That he needs to rally the army to make a

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stand and he needs to have a more sensible policy towards the Sunni

:02:48.:02:50.

leadership and the Sunni population of Iraq. Punch drunk at the collapse

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of security forces in Mosul, Prime Minister Al-Maliki said today it

:02:58.:03:01.

must have been a conspiracy, there was no other way he could explain

:03:02.:03:06.

why some army units had just pulled out. TRANSLATION: I can sincerely

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say what happened in the province was a conspiracy because Al-Qaeda

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and Isis forces were outfull inned by our army and the police there.

:03:20.:03:23.

But I wonder what happened and how it happened and why some units

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collapsed. I know the reasons but today we are not here to apportion

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blame, but there are questions about who took part and how the operation

:03:33.:03:41.

was carried out, who started the rumours and who ordered it and who

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caused confusion. Yesterday they circumstanced Kirkuk, and there are

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reports of fighters in Bayji and Tikrit. They are poised for a move

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on the Baghdad belt, into places like Abu Ghraib, Taji, and Yusfiyah.

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In terms of fighting back Government troops have shown themselves

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incapable, so there could be more reliance on Shia militias raised in

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Baghdad and Kurdish fighters in the north. The key to resolving this

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current short-term security problem will be with the Kurds, far more

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cohesive military, they are fighting on home soil, they trust each other

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and proven in combat. I think they will be in the forefront of the

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solution. The Iraqi army are fighting on foreign soil,

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effectively. They don't have local loyalties, they don't know who the

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enemy are and who the friendly forces are, they are fighting on

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alien country I would have little confidence in the Iraqi army's

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confidence to sort this problem. These pictures show what happened as

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the Iraqi army fled Mosul. Local people, full of contempt, started

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stoning them. In recent months, many Sunni Arabs have come to see the

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Shia-dominated army as an oppressive force. The Jihadist of Isis and

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other Sunni groups reaped this resentment. They built on resentment

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about security forces' policies, heavihanded policies, like the

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tendency to engage in mass arrests when trying to clear out Isis hot

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spots and we have seen that before all this broke out, with the take

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over of Mosul, we saw it in south of Baghdad where there have been hot

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spots of Isis in its predecessor form for at least four years. So

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they certainly are a constituent in the broader opposition and they have

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to be taken seriously. Privately policy makers in the capitals of

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Iraq's former occupiers, the US and UK are furious with Nouri Al-Maliki.

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They believe he has brought the situation on himself by years of

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alienating the Sunni community through sectarian politics.

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Publicly, though, they have no choice but to back him. Many Iraqis

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blame America's occupation for upsetting the ethnic balance and

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empowering Prime Minister Al-Maliki. But equally it was the sacrifice of

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ordinary coalition soldiers that helped reduce the violence almost to

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zero by the time they withdrew. Washington now watches in alarm. We

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have seen Al-Qaeda core mat it is a at this size into -- mataicise into

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core local groups in west and East Africa, and especially mostly in

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Syria and Iraq, and this group Isis, flooding both the Syrian and Iraqi

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Government is terrorising the local population. It is making rapidly

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expanding its influence on the ground, it poses a real threat to

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Europe and America and the Arab world, so we do have to have, I

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think, international support for the Iraqi Government, however misguided

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the Prime Minister of Iraq has been. Militant fighters in Mosul have been

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celebrating their victory. And they have taken four dozen Turk,

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including consular officials prisoner. The sudden shift in power

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towards Isis could trigger Turkish or Iranian intervention and that is

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creating tension across the Middle East. A little earlier I was joined

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from Baghdad by an Iraqi associate fellow of Chatham House, and Patrick

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Osgood a journalist based there. I asked if the Isis insurgence could

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have been anticipated? What couldn't be anticipated is the Iraqi army

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fleeing en masse. Many of the fighters belonging to the extremist

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groups were able to out the forces and they fled in the tens of

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thousands. The Iraqi army did not attempt to fight back, right?

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Absolutely, no. For many of the soldiers this simply was a city not

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worth dying for. They had a hostile relationship with the population,

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the population saw them more as occupiers, and as enemies, more than

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the national army. So they didn't want to put up a fight and decided

:08:35.:08:39.

not to die. They left armoured vehicles, they left military

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hardware, weapons, clearly, do you think that would happen in the case

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of Baghdad? It is going to be very difficult to see this being repeated

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in Baghdad, mainly because that is where the central Government's

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forces are concentrated, and also the central Government in Baghdad is

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relying more and more on Shia militia, they are Iranian-backed,

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ideolgical low-driven forces, acting as auxiliary forces for the Iraqi

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Government. You make Baghdad sound like a very different place to

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Mosul, I'm wondering what the level of fear is on the ground where you

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are now? Well, there is a lot of confusion on the ground. I mean the

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checkpoints here in Baghdad, some tell you there is a curfew imposed

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at 10.00, a few minutes ago, others saying 12.00. Official Iraqi forces

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who themselves have no idea what is going on. Do you think they could

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topple the Government there? Isis don't want to necessarily topple the

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Government. What they are trying to do is provoke the Shia militias and

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even ordinary Shias from taking up arms. Why this becomes dangerous is

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because the Government is calling for this. The Government is opening

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up recruitment centres in the capital and across the south, it is

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calling for citizens to arm themselves and it is telling them

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that they will provide arms. This is exactly what the Jihadists want. If

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they can industryinger out an all-out Civil War between Sunnis and

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Shias it will make their lives much easier and give them more room to

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manoeuvre across the country. We go over to our other guest. Do you feel

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it is a very different place tonight? Yeah, very much so. Here

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life goes on, more or less as normal. But it is only 40 minutes

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away that checkpoints with Mosul are seeing thousands of refugees coming

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over. It feels very, very different indeed. Increasingly like a

:10:39.:10:45.

different country. You have got the Kurdistan regional Government here

:10:46.:10:49.

in a strange situation where it has found itself having had its Armed

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Forces derided for some time now having the only functions army by a

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sanctioned actor in the country. When you say functioning army, you

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think this would be an army that would stand up and fight if push

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came to shove? To defend Kurdish territory, to defend Kurdistan,

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absolutely. I would be surprised to see them at this behest of either

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the central Government or under international pressure, making any

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kind of sortie into Mosul. What the dud here from the Kurdistan

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leadership is they have been warning about something like this for a very

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long time, and it is falling on deaf ears, both in Baghdad and

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internationally. They now feel vindicated and they want to get on

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with the business of building a kind of quasi-nation state, which they

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are already on the way to doing. If I could go back to you, when you

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look at Fallujah, Mosul and Tikrit, they are saying what is gone is

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gone? Yeah, the central Government and Prime Minister Al-Maliki

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yesterday said Mosul will be retaken in 24 hours, which is laughable

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given he said initially the campaign is only going to last one week. The

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Iraqi forces may try to retake the cities, but Mosul is a lot bigger

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than Fallujah. And what we see there is the city is being besieged from

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the outside by the central Government forces and they are

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shelling often indiscriminately and there are many, many civilian

:12:26.:12:30.

casualties. If the Iraqi army does try to do the same thing in Mosul,

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we will see a much bigger and wider humanitarian crisis. And sources in

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Mosul tell me that the people of Mosul, and this speaks to how

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hostile the relationship with the army was, when the army fled and

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Jihadists entered the city, the people of Mosul were more afraid of

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Iraqi army retaliations, in terms of air strikes, than they were of the

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extremist Jihadists themselves. We are looking at dark days ahead of us

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at least. Some views from inside Iraq, and joining me now from

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Pittsburgh is Karen Skinner an adviser to George W Bush on the Iraq

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and Afghan wars, she's now a research fellow at Stamford's Hoover

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Institution. And we have a former British ambassador to Iraq and

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Afghanistan. A warm welcome. I wonder how much the west needs to

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take responsibility for what is happening in Iraq now? Sadly the

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west bears quite a bit of responsibility and in particular the

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United States, the country which under George W Bush pushed into Iraq

:13:40.:13:42.

to bring peace and democracy to that country. But also Obama

:13:43.:13:48.

administration, there is enormous immediate responsibility for what is

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happening on the ground. Because it was senator Barack Obama who

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campaigned on the promise to get out of Iraq and leave that country whole

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and free as a democracy, declared it early in his presidency and by the

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end of 2011 the US left. Nonetheless, sectarian division

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still existed in that country and then Syria was on its way to Civil

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War. The US has no serious Middle East policy to speak of beyond

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exiting wars and repositioning itself towards Asia. It sends a bad

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message to the Jihadists that are now in power in Mosul. Would you

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agree with that, it has been said this evening that Bush shouldn't

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have gone in, Obama shouldn't have come out, that is where the

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responsibility ultimate low lies? You know reopening the debate about

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whether or not we should have gone in or not is not very helpful in

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this context. It is a bit harsh to blame the west, because you have had

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a full term of a Al-Maliki Government in Baghdad. What we're

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seeing now is an ailation of Sunni -- alienation of Sunni, I don't

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think Isis could have had enough force to take Mosul or Tikrit if the

:15:04.:15:09.

Sunnis hadn't been alienated. Why has Al-Maliki been allowed to fail,

:15:10.:15:13.

he was hand-picked by America, billions behind him, the

:15:14.:15:15.

constitution which you helped draft was drawn up for and with him. That

:15:16.:15:22.

is a mistake? Allowed to fail, in a sense, I think we overestimate our

:15:23.:15:26.

power. Iraq was set on a course and it was up to the Iraqis to deliver

:15:27.:15:32.

on their promise, I think there were various opportunities that Al-Maliki

:15:33.:15:36.

failed to bring the Sunnis in. You know when he drove Al-Hashimi out of

:15:37.:15:43.

the country and he alienated the tribes of Ambar and Ramadi. In a

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sense, it is an Iraqi failure, I don't think you can blame this on

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Bush or Obama. Yet the relevance of the west is surely when you ask

:15:56.:16:00.

whether Obama should go back in? Whether there should be intervention

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once more to sort this out? I just disagree some what with your guest

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and agree with him in part in other ways. Of course this is not fully

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the failure of the United States and the west, but once we made the

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commitment to go into Iraq to declare that we were exiting with

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not a clear pathway for the country forward, I think that was a grave

:16:23.:16:27.

mistake, and it sent a bad message to those who wanted to destroy the

:16:28.:16:31.

country. Also on the Mall side, of course it is a weak Government and

:16:32.:16:38.

power, Mosul's indictment of his ability to control the security

:16:39.:16:42.

force, the national army and just overall run the country. He has

:16:43.:16:48.

slanted in a sectarian way as the leader of the country. But the

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United States is the most powerful nation on earth. It is nearly 50% of

:16:52.:16:56.

world defence spending, if we don't help our allies often they can't do

:16:57.:17:01.

it alone. That is my core point. What does that mean, help them? Is

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this a situation that is spelling out to you boots on the ground

:17:07.:17:11.

needed? Well, I think that is a far jump given how the administration

:17:12.:17:18.

has really pulled back in Iraq, that it would go in as it is exiting

:17:19.:17:23.

Afghanistan and facing a crisis around the Taliban, and just a

:17:24.:17:28.

disorientated foreign policy. To ask of the administration a return to

:17:29.:17:32.

Iraq, I think it is a tall order. But a more responsible regional

:17:33.:17:37.

policy that is clearly articulated, that bolsters our allies, like the

:17:38.:17:45.

Turk, I think it makes a big difference in a region that is full

:17:46.:17:52.

of strife and multiple wars going on in several countries all at the same

:17:53.:17:55.

time. This is the question isn't it, from what you have seen and you have

:17:56.:17:59.

served in both countries, does this look regional enough to happen in

:18:00.:18:05.

Afghanistan, are we starting to see this arc? I think it is very

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different. I think there is an absence of an Obama doctrine, if you

:18:09.:18:12.

like. There is a sense in which there is no clear American policy.

:18:13.:18:18.

There is some indecision. Which is a legacy of the history of our

:18:19.:18:21.

intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan. I think those who are

:18:22.:18:25.

advocating do we have to go in, that would be a big mistake. I don't

:18:26.:18:28.

think our military can always solve these problems. I think the problem

:18:29.:18:34.

is it has to be solved by Iraqis. Do you think this is a joined-up

:18:35.:18:38.

problem. When the west is looking on this region now, do you see this as

:18:39.:18:43.

dangerous? I think this is a very dangerous moment for Iraq, and

:18:44.:18:47.

dangerous moment for us, I think we could see the emergence of a Jihadi

:18:48.:18:55.

extremist eptity in Iraq and Syria. What does eptity mean, a control of

:18:56.:19:04.

a -- eptity mean? A control of a territory where they could plot

:19:05.:19:09.

against the west. There could come a point where we have no choice

:19:10.:19:21.

because our national security is threatenedecause our national

:19:22.:19:23.

security is threatened. Do you see Iran in this entry. I think Iran

:19:24.:19:27.

will provide whatever support they think the Iraqis need. I wonder, in

:19:28.:19:38.

a way it is disenginous to say -- disingenious to say there was a time

:19:39.:19:42.

of peace and it was safe to step back, it has got worse? I think it

:19:43.:19:48.

is an ahistorical point to say democracy and peace had spread

:19:49.:19:56.

through Iraq, because the sectarian violence has historical roots and

:19:57.:19:59.

had nothing to do with what was going on at any one time. The United

:20:00.:20:03.

States und President Obama declared that terrorism represents one of the

:20:04.:20:07.

highest threats to the nation. If that's the case then Iraq becomes a

:20:08.:20:10.

high priority for the administration. It has to explain to

:20:11.:20:14.

the American public and the rest of the world what we are actually going

:20:15.:20:18.

to do, given that in the past two weeks at west point, the President

:20:19.:20:23.

outlined his foreign policy as best he could, where he said that

:20:24.:20:28.

terrorism is something that we will focus on, often unilaterally if

:20:29.:20:32.

necessary. I think it is still an important role for the US to play.

:20:33.:20:40.

Thank you very much. The United Nations has seemed to look on

:20:41.:20:45.

helplessly as events in Iraq spiral out of control, its secretary, Ban

:20:46.:20:50.

Ki-Moon, expressing grave concern about the situation. Earlier on

:20:51.:20:55.

today I spoke to his predecessor, Kofi Anan. We must all feel this is

:20:56.:21:01.

a sad day for the United Nations and international community. He was the

:21:02.:21:05.

man charged with the unenviable job of leading the UN, during one of the

:21:06.:21:10.

most tumultuous periods in modern times. Arguments raged over the

:21:11.:21:15.

invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. He served as the United Nations

:21:16.:21:20.

envoy to Syria during 2012, but resigned, calling it "mission

:21:21.:21:26.

impossible" because of proxy wars being fought during regional powers.

:21:27.:21:31.

More recently he has been working on a report looking at the drug trade,

:21:32.:21:37.

narcotics are produced in South America but traffiked through to

:21:38.:21:46.

reach the US and Europe. The Ugandan Foreign Minister was voted in as the

:21:47.:21:52.

cermonial President. He's a support of the strict antigay law, that

:21:53.:21:56.

authorises life imprisonment for those convicts of having gay sex. I

:21:57.:22:04.

started the interview by asking Kofi Annan what he thought about today's

:22:05.:22:09.

events in Iraq? I have been quite involved in the Middle East for a

:22:10.:22:14.

while. For quite a long time. When I was the enjoy for Syria, I did

:22:15.:22:19.

indicate that unless we found ways of resolving the Syrian crisis, or

:22:20.:22:25.

containing it, it would spread through the region. And now we see a

:22:26.:22:31.

movement that is likely to operate across borders openly, linking Syria

:22:32.:22:41.

and Iraq. With the extremist element trying to establish their own state.

:22:42.:22:45.

You think that could be the beginning of an Islamic kalafait? It

:22:46.:22:54.

depends how we come together to deal with the crisis in the region. The

:22:55.:22:58.

situation cannot be handled by the Iraqis alone, they have asked for

:22:59.:23:03.

help. Just as the Syrians alone cannot handle their crisis. And I

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believe we need a very effective core group made up of permanent

:23:11.:23:17.

members of the Security Council, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and

:23:18.:23:25.

possibly Egypt. So you need to bring the regional powers together. In

:23:26.:23:29.

other words they would need to work together. I'm not sure there is a

:23:30.:23:35.

stomach for troops on the ground. I don't see any country that will put

:23:36.:23:39.

boots on the ground. What they can do is agree a common approach, make

:23:40.:23:45.

a common purpose and work together to implement the agreement they

:23:46.:23:52.

reach. And undertake not to fund or arm either side. The west came close

:23:53.:24:09.

to military intervention in Syria, are you disappointed that didn't

:24:10.:24:13.

happen? I'm not sure military intervention would have made that

:24:14.:24:16.

much difference. As I said earlier we need to think through these

:24:17.:24:20.

interventions very carefully, in some situations it can make the

:24:21.:24:26.

situation worse. We have seen it in several countries, where military

:24:27.:24:29.

action has not, like Iraq, like Libya. Can I just briefly ask you

:24:30.:24:35.

your thoughts on the possible President of the UN General

:24:36.:24:41.

Assembly? I see why you are asking that question, we really have no

:24:42.:24:47.

right to discriminate the way it is happening in some countries,

:24:48.:24:52.

including Uganda, to the extent of threatening people with death. And

:24:53.:24:59.

so indeed have died. It is something that, which cannot be condoned,

:25:00.:25:09.

should not be accepted and of course I do not expect him to promote those

:25:10.:25:15.

kinds of policies in the General Assembly. He's not going to get

:25:16.:25:25.

anywhere. I see the point you are making, if the UN is going to preach

:25:26.:25:29.

and tell people about human rights and all this, we have to lead by

:25:30.:25:37.

example. Your report from the foundation suggests a real reform is

:25:38.:25:41.

needed on the ways you tackle the west African drug problem,

:25:42.:25:46.

particularly in how you criminalise most aspects of it? That is

:25:47.:25:49.

absolutely correct. We believe that the war on drugs has not worked and

:25:50.:25:55.

we should have the courage to ask the right questions and do something

:25:56.:26:00.

about it. The commission's report believes that we should approach it

:26:01.:26:04.

more from a health point of view, see how we can help the users, but

:26:05.:26:11.

at the same time be very firm and very hard on the big drug barons. Do

:26:12.:26:15.

you believe that the Governments that you are talking to support

:26:16.:26:19.

this, do you believe that the US and the EU would support this level of

:26:20.:26:25.

decriminalisation? Well, initially perhaps not, but at least they

:26:26.:26:29.

should discuss it, and I know that discussion is taking place in the

:26:30.:26:34.

US, it is taking place in Latin America, and it is taking place in

:26:35.:26:38.

some parts of Europe and some countries in Europe have indeed

:26:39.:26:45.

taken action. We are at the beginning so I don't expect

:26:46.:26:50.

overnight changes. But the changes have to come. Waughs Because I

:26:51.:26:56.

really believe that drugs have destroyed many lives, but

:26:57.:27:00.

wrong-headed Governmental policies have destroyed many more.

:27:01.:27:06.

Kofi Annan talking to me from Senegal earlier.

:27:07.:27:09.

To matters here, another big rise in employment, unfall in unemployment

:27:10.:27:12.

and the jobs appear to be well spread across the country. The bad

:27:13.:27:16.

news is average earnings growth has again fallen below inflation. With

:27:17.:27:21.

all the caveats to how we preyed it, here is the -- we break it down. We

:27:22.:27:30.

will come to the caveats in a moment, exceptional growth in

:27:31.:27:34.

employment and the people in work and another big fall in

:27:35.:27:38.

unemployment. That is down to 6. 6%. Put that in context, if you go back

:27:39.:27:43.

to last summer the Bank of England said we won't even consider raising

:27:44.:27:47.

interest rates until unemployment is below 7%. They said we won't expect

:27:48.:27:52.

that to happen until mid-2016. Here we are two years earlier and t down

:27:53.:27:58.

to 6. 6%. It raises a lot of questions. What about average

:27:59.:28:02.

earnings? This is what is seen as the bad news in today's numbers.

:28:03.:28:07.

Since 2009, in general, inflation, price rises, have been ahead of wage

:28:08.:28:11.

growth. Real wage, wages after price rises have been falling for six

:28:12.:28:16.

years. Historically long squeeze in real incomes. Last month for the

:28:17.:28:19.

first time in a few years earnings got back above inflation, much

:28:20.:28:23.

celebration at the time. Today, I'm afraid, they fell back below. This

:28:24.:28:27.

is where we bring in the caveat, we have to be careful. The first rule

:28:28.:28:31.

of looking at any economic theory is don't get too excited by one data

:28:32.:28:35.

point. We all got excited last month and people are getting excited

:28:36.:28:40.

today. Not usually a good idea. Secondly, there are technical issues

:28:41.:28:45.

about pulling down bonus payments. If you dig into the numbers today,

:28:46.:28:49.

if you are the average worker in somewhere like retail, hotels,

:28:50.:28:53.

restaurant, manufacturing, you are seeing real wages rise at the

:28:54.:28:57.

moment. You mentioned interest rates before, what's the impact that

:28:58.:29:02.

today's news will have, will people feel better off or worse off, where

:29:03.:29:06.

is this going? If you look at the forecast, and maybe shouldn't pay

:29:07.:29:10.

too much tension and I tension to them, most forecasts say this year,

:29:11.:29:14.

2014, we should see wage growth of about 2. 5% and inflation a little

:29:15.:29:20.

bit below 2%. We will see real wages rise this year, people feeling

:29:21.:29:25.

better off. 2. 5% wage growth is still historically weak. Ten years

:29:26.:29:29.

before 200 # you expected more like 4%. After the few years we have had,

:29:30.:29:37.

that is good news. Looking at the forecast, barring some unexpected

:29:38.:29:41.

disaster, people will feel better off. But barring a miracle they will

:29:42.:29:46.

still be worse off than 2008, that is an interesting question heading

:29:47.:29:49.

into the election. Do people look at the last year or do they think they

:29:50.:29:56.

are worse off than a few years back. It is an issue that has united right

:29:57.:30:01.

and left, euro-sceptic and file, Labour and the Conservatives, the

:30:02.:30:07.

unsuitable offup Jean-Claude Juncker -- of one Jean-Claude Juncker as

:30:08.:30:11.

head of the European Commission. Today the right-hand man side he was

:30:12.:30:16.

quitting his post and take up a post in London. Where does that leave

:30:17.:30:21.

Juncker's bid and where he is. We were on the trail of the most talked

:30:22.:30:33.

about man in Europe. Where do begin the search for the most illusive man

:30:34.:30:43.

in European politics. Land locked Luxembourg, of course, no I wasn't

:30:44.:30:47.

sure where it is either, but I know now. And Jean-Claude Juncker is the

:30:48.:30:51.

country's best known export, if you are into that sort of thing. Let's

:30:52.:31:01.

locate Mr Juncker, Luxembourg has half a million people in it, it

:31:02.:31:09.

shouldn't be too tricky. Come to think of it, where are all those

:31:10.:31:13.

people? Perhaps it was a mistake to come during a public holiday. Could

:31:14.:31:28.

you tell me where Mr Juncker is? Mr Juncker? Mr Juncker was Prime

:31:29.:31:31.

Minister here for nearly two decades and is still an MP. But no luck at

:31:32.:31:38.

the parliament. Mr Juncker? What about Mr Juncker. Do you know where

:31:39.:31:42.

he is? Where, yeah I know. Where is he? I can't tell you. Why not? We

:31:43.:31:50.

are not allowed to tell you that. Only weeks ago Mr Juncker was happy

:31:51.:31:54.

to be found. I joined his tour bus in Athens as he campaigned for

:31:55.:31:58.

Europe's top job. He's the centre right choice to be President of the

:31:59.:32:02.

European Commission, and since the centre right won the European

:32:03.:32:07.

elections he's theoretically in pole position. But EU leaders have a big

:32:08.:32:11.

say, the Greek Prime Minister likes him as does the German Chancellor,

:32:12.:32:15.

Angela Merkel, David Cameron isn't keen, viewing Mr Juncker as an

:32:16.:32:19.

obstacle to his attempt to reform Europe. I do think that Europe is

:32:20.:32:24.

stronger with our British friends on board. I do think that Britain in

:32:25.:32:32.

the world can play a major role. Because being a member of the

:32:33.:32:37.

European Union. So I'm far away from being anti-British. I have come to

:32:38.:32:41.

Luxembourg, because now what was supposed to be about democracy has

:32:42.:32:45.

shifted to back room deals, and Mr Juncker is not doing interviews. I

:32:46.:32:51.

haven't found him yet, but I have come to the next best thing, the man

:32:52.:32:56.

who will replace Mr Juncker in the Luxembourg parliament if he becomes

:32:57.:33:00.

commission President. I think he would be the ideal man to build the

:33:01.:33:03.

bridge between the south and north again and to make sure that Europe

:33:04.:33:10.

comes together again, and to hold it together, the union. All the states,

:33:11.:33:15.

including Britain. You think so? I think so, it is one of his

:33:16.:33:19.

priorities. More crucially for us, does he know where Mr Juncker is?

:33:20.:33:26.

(Laughs) We are looking for him. Well look harder! Look heard we did.

:33:27.:33:38.

In Mr Juncker's home town we get a lead. Do you ever see him around? I

:33:39.:33:44.

know's eating a lot of time -- I know he's eating a lot of time in

:33:45.:33:49.

the tennis courts. Not if today is anything to go by. What is this? It

:33:50.:33:56.

is a photo, because I like him and yeah. This is the closest we have

:33:57.:34:00.

got to Mr Juncker so far today. And now we have found Mr Juncker's

:34:01.:34:05.

favourite local, where better to test insinations made in parts of

:34:06.:34:11.

the British press that he's fond of a tipple. I drink more than Mr

:34:12.:34:19.

Juncker, it is the grant -- grappa. Not a big drinker? No, no. It has

:34:20.:34:24.

taken a little while but we have found Mr Juncker's house, but nobody

:34:25.:34:29.

is home at the moment. We were wrong. We have been at Mr Juncker's

:34:30.:34:33.

house, we didn't stay long, the police arrived almost immediately.

:34:34.:34:37.

They asked for our documents, they told us we couldn't film at a

:34:38.:34:41.

private house and shoed us away, clearly someone doesn't want

:34:42.:34:47.

journalists here. Our arrival prompted a different reaction down

:34:48.:34:51.

the road. Newsnight understands Mr Juncker is still confident he will

:34:52.:34:54.

be the next commission President. Here in Luxembourg they wouldn't

:34:55.:35:05.

have it any other way. The latest cover of Private Eye seems to

:35:06.:35:08.

capture the England mood very well. The World Cup arriving in Brazil.

:35:09.:35:13.

And the pilot of the play offering to keep the engine running while

:35:14.:35:16.

they play their first games. The point is not that England will be

:35:17.:35:21.

easily defeated, rather than we as a nation anticipate they will. A poll

:35:22.:35:27.

suggests the English are the most pessimistic of any footballing power

:35:28.:35:30.

in the world. Only 4% of us expect our country to win.

:35:31.:35:37.

# It's coming home # Football's coming home.

:35:38.:35:42.

Oh for the 1990, look at that, songs about England winning football

:35:43.:35:45.

trophies, it seems a long time ago. Where did that confidence go? People

:35:46.:35:52.

are gearing up for the World Cup, our colleagues at the One Show were

:35:53.:35:55.

really getting into it, and even let us have a go. England fans are

:35:56.:36:03.

approaching this tournament with a lot of resignation, there is more

:36:04.:36:06.

enthusiasm about the football than confidence in their team.

:36:07.:36:10.

International polls and bookies' odds both imply that fans are not

:36:11.:36:20.

sure that England will do very well. Across 19 different countries we

:36:21.:36:22.

asked people who they thought would win the World Cup, and Brazil were

:36:23.:36:26.

the strong favourites. Interestingly in England the optimisim that

:36:27.:36:31.

usually accompanies a big tournament wasn't there. In 2010 when we asked

:36:32.:36:36.

a similar question a third of people thought England stood a good chance

:36:37.:36:40.

of winning the World Cup. Now it is 1 in 20, a big change. The YouGov

:36:41.:36:47.

poll found only 4% of the English people thought the team would win.

:36:48.:36:51.

That is not just low for a top team, but lower than countries like the US

:36:52.:36:56.

and Japan. Who will win the World Cup? Brazil. Despite the flag on

:36:57.:37:02.

your roof? We won't be in it. We are not going to win it. I have a good

:37:03.:37:07.

feeling Brazil will win it. Not England? Not England. Why is that?

:37:08.:37:13.

From past experience. Looking at how people bet on the competition,

:37:14.:37:19.

Ladbrokes' odds imply that the public thought England have a 14%

:37:20.:37:24.

chance of winning the World Cup. This year it is 3%, perhaps that is

:37:25.:37:29.

because they think England is worse, afterall its FIFA ranking has been

:37:30.:37:33.

drifting out of the top ten. Maybe it is because people just aren't

:37:34.:37:39.

that inspired. Most importantly we are here and in one piece and the

:37:40.:37:44.

mood and attitude our optimisim hasn't been dented at all. Or maybe,

:37:45.:37:49.

after 48 years of hurt, England's getting a bit more like Scotland.

:37:50.:38:02.

# Just don't come home too soon # Don't come home too soon

:38:03.:38:09.

This was their last World Cup song. We have our guests. With us now.

:38:10.:38:18.

Very nice to have you both chap, if YouGov called you up, as I'm sure

:38:19.:38:22.

they have, who would you say you thought would win the World Cup? I

:38:23.:38:26.

would say Brazil, but it is who I want to win the World Cup, it is

:38:27.:38:30.

obviously England. The problem I have, England football fans have

:38:31.:38:33.

been fairly realistic, but you start to dream and you think if we could

:38:34.:38:37.

get out of the group we could get to the quarter final, if we get there

:38:38.:38:41.

we can do the semis and then the final and then it is anybody's game.

:38:42.:38:46.

Once you start thinking irrationally you get excited. Does it surprise

:38:47.:38:52.

the number of 4%, with Costa Rico on this one? I'm proud, we have got it

:38:53.:38:57.

right. 42% of the time I would have said Brazil. We have simulated the

:38:58.:39:01.

tournament, tens of thousands of times, and 3% of the time England

:39:02.:39:05.

win the tournament when you do that, based on our class. Therefore if 4%

:39:06.:39:09.

of people think we are going to win the World Cup that is about right.

:39:10.:39:14.

It was absurd when 13% of people thought we could win or people

:39:15.:39:17.

thought we had a 33% chance. There are a lot of countries in the world,

:39:18.:39:24.

if England had a 33% chance what about Argentina and brill still and

:39:25.:39:30.

France. Do you -- Brazil and France. Do you admire our statistics or is

:39:31.:39:35.

it the Roy Hodgson approach to dampen everything down, what do you

:39:36.:39:40.

put it down to? I do think that successive defeats have made people

:39:41.:39:43.

more realistic. If England were a team that had a 5% chance of winning

:39:44.:39:48.

the World Cup, you could imagine that basically they win once in my

:39:49.:39:52.

lifetime n my 80ersy. We have won once in my lifetime. People have

:39:53.:40:00.

probably just cottoned on to it and not massively overestimating it. As

:40:01.:40:05.

Brazil are many, many more times likely to win the World Cup, you

:40:06.:40:11.

would say Brazil then. I wouldn't put it as pessimism, but on the

:40:12.:40:16.

moment on Saturday at 10. 30 people are at home or in the pubs watching

:40:17.:40:20.

it and the commentary starts and you say look at the leading line,

:40:21.:40:29.

Sturridge and Lambert up front. Okonedo and others go we are going.

:40:30.:40:41.

Only do think we will get knocked out by the knock-out line. There is

:40:42.:40:46.

a 77% we will be out of the group. The Italians, 20% of who think they

:40:47.:40:52.

will win the World Cup, have a 0. 3% chance of winning. Hopefully our

:40:53.:40:58.

pessimism will take us through. My editor says it doesn't feel the

:40:59.:41:02.

same, can you remember the song? Nobody has seen the flags? The flags

:41:03.:41:07.

are out. Have you seen flags? No so many in Pinner. This is interesting,

:41:08.:41:11.

because four years ago it felt it was a slightly more visible,

:41:12.:41:16.

tangible, is it because we have written it off because it is Brazil

:41:17.:41:22.

or do we know how the Brazilians play now, we are so much more used

:41:23.:41:27.

to it. It knocked the stuffing out of us when we didn't qualify for the

:41:28.:41:35.

euros. We don't do badly and it is not bad result to be in the quarter

:41:36.:41:39.

finals. We are not the biggest country in the world and to be

:41:40.:41:45.

between 4-8th, when you are there you get knocked out. When Argentina

:41:46.:41:51.

is going through a military coup and is down it pulls off a World Cup

:41:52.:41:55.

win. Spain did the same. In the middle of an economic crisis it

:41:56.:41:59.

pulls it out of a hat. When we are starting to feel better and there is

:42:00.:42:03.

more growth coming in? More or less likely? I wonder if you think we

:42:04.:42:08.

don't concentrate, the escapism isn't so relevant? I'm not so sure,

:42:09.:42:14.

it is more to do, my generation is 1966, we got to the semifinals was

:42:15.:42:21.

great. When we hosts it was huge for the country. It felt like Britain

:42:22.:42:26.

was changing and emerging from hooliganism, the economy growing and

:42:27.:42:29.

Britpop. For my generation it felt it all came together. It has taken a

:42:30.:42:34.

long time for the hangover. Before you go, how far are we going to get,

:42:35.:42:40.

out of the group stages? 77. 7% we will get out of the group. That is

:42:41.:42:48.

the best I can do. If If we goat get to the semis we will win it! He's

:42:49.:42:55.

wrong! Thank you very much. Let's stick with the World Cup, over the

:42:56.:42:58.

next week we will bring you a series of profiles of some of the most

:42:59.:43:00.

important and interesting players at the tournament. We start tonight

:43:01.:43:13.

with Da Silva from Croatia. It is the day Eduardo Da Silva would

:43:14.:43:21.

have dreamt of growing up. Tens of thousands of fans cheering from the

:43:22.:43:25.

stands and him the centre of attention in Brazil's opening game

:43:26.:43:31.

against Croatia. This Brazilian boy became a Croatian man, on the 10th

:43:32.:43:36.

of June it will be his job not to make the Brazilian dream, but

:43:37.:43:40.

destroy it in the name of his new country. His is a remarkable Johnny

:43:41.:43:47.

began when aged 15 it was Tsar grebe, rather than Rio -- Zagreb,

:43:48.:43:52.

rather than Rio where his footballing future. Home was a

:43:53.:43:58.

football store room and food was what the restaurant had going spare.

:43:59.:44:05.

Citizenship was granted and Arsenal snapped him up in 2007. Nothing

:44:06.:44:15.

seemed beyond the man dubbed "the Brazilian". He won praise for the

:44:16.:44:18.

dignity of his reaction to a broken leg. But there was a real

:44:19.:44:22.

uncertainty about whether he would ever play again, let alone brace a

:44:23.:44:28.

World Cup. This year he helped steer his current club to a National

:44:29.:44:33.

League title. But in keeping with an unconventional career, the backdrop

:44:34.:44:36.

for that triumph was anything but normal. He was playing for the

:44:37.:44:41.

Ukrainian Premier League. But even that will seem normal when Brazil

:44:42.:44:50.

and Croatia take the field. That was John Motson talking there. We will

:44:51.:44:53.

have more over the coming nights. Now the papers before we go:

:44:54.:45:26.

Let's have a look at the Daily Mail, Cameron, what housing crisis, and

:45:27.:45:40.

JKRowlings donation to the no campaign. And Twitter abuse. An

:45:41.:45:47.

exclusive where fewer checks on overseas applicants have been

:45:48.:45:51.

revealed in a briefing note. That is all we have time for. Good night all

:45:52.:45:59.

of you. Discussion The weather is set fair for the bulk

:46:00.:46:21.

of the UK tomorrow, England and Wales will

:46:22.:46:22.