17/07/2014 Newsnight


17/07/2014

Was the Malaysian Airlines plane shot down? Plus tensions in Ukraine, Israeli troops entering Gaza, and an interview with Bill Clinton.


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Transcript


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It is still not certain why the Malaysian Boeing 777 crashed in

:00:00.:00:13.

eastern Ukraine, killing the it 95 295 people from at least nine

:00:14.:00:17.

countries. We piece together what happened tonight, and as Ukraine

:00:18.:00:22.

accuse terrorists military seperatist we assess who had the

:00:23.:00:26.

capability to bring down the airliner and what the military

:00:27.:00:31.

implications might be. As the crash prompts talks over a truce whilst

:00:32.:00:35.

the incident is investigated, we report on how ever more powerful

:00:36.:00:40.

weaponry is being deployed in the conflict. Israel has launched a

:00:41.:00:45.

ground offensive against Gaza just after a ceasefire was implemented.

:00:46.:00:51.

We will talk to a former Palestinian official inside Gaza. We join

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President Clinton on a trip to India as he speaks exclusively to

:00:56.:00:59.

Newsnight about the idea of a second President Clinton in the family. I

:01:00.:01:04.

can tell you this all these suggestions that you know she feels

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entitled to it and all that, that is just not true. That is not true, we

:01:10.:01:13.

have been in too many races over the last almost 40 years now to believe

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in any such thing as a sure deal. Good evening Malaysian airlines

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flight MH17 crashed near the border in eastern Ukraine near the rebel

:01:39.:01:42.

held town of Shaktarsk. Six of the passengers were British, the vast

:01:43.:01:46.

majority were Dutch, the latest estimates say 154 of the 295 people

:01:47.:01:51.

on board came from there. Immediately Ukraine's Government and

:01:52.:01:55.

pro-Russian seperatists traded blame for the disaster, which US

:01:56.:01:58.

intelligence agencies suggest was caused by a missile.

:01:59.:02:06.

Hundreds dead, bodies and wreckage spread over a wide area. Most of the

:02:07.:02:13.

pictures are too traumatic to show. Broken pieces of the plane's wings

:02:14.:02:18.

are marked with blue and red paint, the colours of Malaysian airlines. I

:02:19.:02:28.

have just spoken with the Prime Minister of the Netherland and

:02:29.:02:30.

offered condolences on behalf of the Ukrainian people and asked Dutch

:02:31.:02:33.

experts to investigate this act of terrorism. I would like to draw your

:02:34.:02:36.

ascension to the fact that we are not calling it an accident or

:02:37.:02:43.

disaster but an act of terrorism. Malaysian allonlation airlines

:02:44.:02:50.

flight left Amsterdam today, Schipol is one of the busiest airports in

:02:51.:02:56.

the world. It flew east through Germany and Poland before the signal

:02:57.:03:02.

vanished, directly over disputed territory in eastern Ukraine. It

:03:03.:03:05.

should have continued on through Afghanistan and India towards Kuala

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Lumpur. In recent months seperatists are believed to have shot down a

:03:10.:03:12.

number of Ukrainian military jets over the region. Commercial airlines

:03:13.:03:22.

from British airlines -- British Airways to Lufthansa have said they

:03:23.:03:27.

will divert way from the area. The practice is you could carry on

:03:28.:03:32.

flying commercial aircraft over 35,000 feet over a conflict zone. It

:03:33.:03:36.

happened before in Iraq and in Afghanistan during those crises.

:03:37.:03:40.

Commercial aircraft traditionally would have been beyond the reach of

:03:41.:03:45.

whatever was going on the ground. Clearly with the incident today this

:03:46.:03:50.

may now change. This evening the air pays around Donetsk was closed to

:03:51.:03:54.

all commercial traffic. These pictures from a flight-tracking

:03:55.:03:58.

website showed commercial jets avoiding the whole region. Today's

:03:59.:04:02.

crash will prompt tough questions about why that route was being used

:04:03.:04:05.

at all, given the military tension in the country.

:04:06.:04:11.

Newsnight has seen a notice from the UK's Civil Aviation Authority

:04:12.:04:13.

released just last month warning airlines of a potentially hazardous

:04:14.:04:19.

situation over Ukrainian airspace, particularly Crimea to the south.

:04:20.:04:23.

Due, it says, to the potential misidentification of civil aircraft.

:04:24.:04:27.

Ukrainian officials were quick to blame Russian-backed seperatists for

:04:28.:04:33.

shooting down the airliner. The country's state Security Service

:04:34.:04:36.

posted what it said were telephone intercepts of the conversation

:04:37.:04:40.

between two Russian intelligence officers panicking when they

:04:41.:04:43.

realised the plane was a civilian airliner. The authenticity of these

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recordings cannot be confirmed and the rebels have strongly

:04:49.:04:51.

recordings cannot be confirmed and involvement in the crash. If a

:04:52.:04:56.

missile was to blame, then hitting an airliner at 33,000 feet will need

:04:57.:05:02.

expensive military-grade hardware. The Ukrainians claim a BUK

:05:03.:05:06.

anti-careful missile system like this one was used, it is accepted

:05:07.:05:09.

that Russia has supplied rebels with military equipment, but there is no

:05:10.:05:13.

solid proof of something this sophisticated, a launch similar to

:05:14.:05:16.

this was reported to have been seen this week near a rebel-held town. It

:05:17.:05:21.

would be a new level of capability for the seperatists in antiaircraft

:05:22.:05:25.

terms, it would have been supplied from Russia, the smaller man-powered

:05:26.:05:31.

systems we have seen in rebel hands in recent months are not capable of

:05:32.:05:37.

reaching an airliner at that altitude, it would be like the

:05:38.:05:41.

system of the BUK and externally supplied. At the crash site it is

:05:42.:05:44.

not clear who is responsible for what is a major disaster scene. The

:05:45.:06:06.

Malaysian Government has warrant it will investigate.

:06:07.:06:09.

You have just come from a press conference and we now know that of

:06:10.:06:17.

the 295, 154 pass engers were Dutch. This is a dreadful moment for the

:06:18.:06:23.

country. It really, in the report they were talking about a national

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strategy for Malaysia and certainly for the Netherlands, this evening

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here at the airport some of the relatives have been coming here. A

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few moments ago an airport bus with about 12 relatives of some of those

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on board drove past, we had seen others driving past earlier, this

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time round with 12 of them, blank expressions on their faces. It is

:06:43.:06:46.

just unimaginable the anguish that they are going through at the

:06:47.:06:49.

moment. At that press conference we are told 154 Dutch people on that

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plane, six British, 27 Australians, 23 Malaysians and a variety of

:06:57.:06:59.

others, French, Belgians and the like. The French Foreign Minister

:07:00.:07:02.

this evening has said that there must be an inquiry into this, rapid

:07:03.:07:07.

and urgent inquiry into this. But certainly with the Dutch Prime

:07:08.:07:11.

Minister returning from an earlier visit to Belgium, cutting short that

:07:12.:07:15.

visit and returning to the Hague this evening, we expect some more

:07:16.:07:18.

words from the Dutch Government either in the coming hours or

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certainly tomorrow. Was anything said about the investigation,

:07:22.:07:24.

particularly in relation to the black box, because there are stories

:07:25.:07:30.

not confirmed that seperatists in Donetsk have that black box? They

:07:31.:07:35.

weren't telling us anything that I heard about that here at Schipol.

:07:36.:07:43.

They did say that a team from Malaysian Airlines will shorting be

:07:44.:07:47.

on its way to Kiev to launch their own investigation, you would have to

:07:48.:07:51.

imagine that official also do all they could to get their hand on any

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information they could, especially the flight recorders.

:07:55.:07:56.

Thank you very much for joining us. With us now in the studio is Doug

:07:57.:08:02.

Richardson missiles and rockets engineering for the international

:08:03.:08:06.

defence review. First of all, we heard in that film there

:08:07.:08:09.

possibilities of a BUK weapon. Is that a kind of weapon that can hit a

:08:10.:08:19.

passenger Jetta height? , at that height? As soon as I heard I checked

:08:20.:08:30.

what level -- a jet, at that height? You can work it out, yes, they are

:08:31.:08:36.

heavily radared and traffic controlled network, they have a

:08:37.:08:38.

perfect coverage of what is going on, my suspicion moved to the medium

:08:39.:08:45.

range category. This weapon can it operate without separate radar? It

:08:46.:08:49.

can, normally it does, it is vehicle-mounted, a vehicle has a

:08:50.:08:52.

radar which is all around looking to get the tactical picture. There is a

:08:53.:08:55.

second vehicle, which is the command post, which receives that

:08:56.:08:58.

information, where the commander can decide if something is a threat, use

:08:59.:09:04.

his computers to plan interception and align the job to a missile

:09:05.:09:08.

launcher. The missile launcher then goes on target. But you know this

:09:09.:09:11.

idea that the commercial jets could fly above 33,000 feet, can this

:09:12.:09:16.

rocket launcher not hit targets higher than that? Yes indeed.

:09:17.:09:22.

20,000ms we believe, which is about 70,000 feet. It was no protection

:09:23.:09:25.

really to commercial jets to be flying at 33,000 feet? No. Who has

:09:26.:09:32.

the BUK? The Russians have the BUK, the Ukrainians have the BUK and we

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have certainly seen film and images of BUK hardware in the seperatist

:09:38.:09:43.

hands. So if all these different groups have it, do all these

:09:44.:09:48.

different groups have the expertise, or is there different levels of

:09:49.:09:54.

expertise, what I'm getting at here, this was a huge passenger JESHTHS

:09:55.:09:58.

would they have had any -- jet, would they have had any idea what

:09:59.:10:03.

they were aiming at? If they had a complete BUK system. The launcher

:10:04.:10:07.

can operate on its own, it has its own little radar in it, it just

:10:08.:10:11.

looks forward. I'm looking at you, I'm not ware of the cameras around

:10:12.:10:15.

here and what they are doing, it is like that. In autonomous mode it can

:10:16.:10:23.

look at what is in front of it and the local commander can decide what

:10:24.:10:29.

to engage. That sounds cavalier, they must have known commercial jets

:10:30.:10:36.

were in the skies? They would have had no way of telling which targets

:10:37.:10:41.

were commercial or military. Is there any way that any passenger jet

:10:42.:10:45.

would know of an impending take? No, no warning at all. Is there any way

:10:46.:10:52.

by looking at the fuselage when the investigators go, that they will

:10:53.:10:55.

know what it was hit by? I should think so, the distribution of

:10:56.:10:59.

schrapnal marks on the wreckage and the way it is broken up will give

:11:00.:11:04.

clues as to what sort of explosives and warhead was used. What do you

:11:05.:11:07.

think the Intelligence Services will be looking for when they piece this

:11:08.:11:10.

together? They will be trying to find out who gave the order to fire.

:11:11.:11:15.

Was it a single launcher operating autonomously, or was this given by a

:11:16.:11:22.

senior commander. What are the technical signs they can look for.

:11:23.:11:26.

Presumably if they find the rocket launcher on the ground, will they

:11:27.:11:31.

have any idea of the target and the trajectory from the launcher itself?

:11:32.:11:35.

They may have, but if there was any information recorded it could be

:11:36.:11:38.

deleted. It is extraordinary, if you think about the USS Finsend they

:11:39.:11:47.

shot down a passenger airliner in 1988, that was you would think the

:11:48.:11:51.

technology would move on? The BUK is an old system now. But the

:11:52.:11:57.

Ukrainian, the Russians and seperatists are still using it? Yes

:11:58.:12:03.

and many other people are using it. The Boeing 777 crash comes after a

:12:04.:12:07.

series of ground-to-air attacks in eastern Ukraine, one of which downed

:12:08.:12:14.

a Ukrainian fighter plane yesterday, Ukraine lay the responsibility at

:12:15.:12:22.

Russia's door for that, but they denied.

:12:23.:12:25.

Picking through the rubble after what pro-Russian rep cysts say was a

:12:26.:12:33.

Ukrainian -- seperatists say was a Ukrainian military crash. For this

:12:34.:12:36.

high stakes battle in the east, the Government has forced rebels out of

:12:37.:12:40.

former strongholds. It has all added to the misery of the people and

:12:41.:12:44.

according to outside observers the complexities and dangers of the

:12:45.:12:49.

conflict. There was a report where the plane went down. Recently we

:12:50.:12:54.

reported that there are as many as 100 armed groups with as many as

:12:55.:13:02.

4,000 men in their membership. That is a lot of groups controlling a

:13:03.:13:05.

relatively small part of the Ukraine. The rebels have been forced

:13:06.:13:11.

back to their heartland of Donetsk and Luhansk. The fear is the next

:13:12.:13:16.

phase of the conflict will be even deadlier urban warfare. The rebels

:13:17.:13:19.

are still claiming their own successes on the ground against

:13:20.:13:22.

Kiev's force, but the tables have been turned from the early days when

:13:23.:13:26.

the east seems to be spinning out of Kiev's control. That's adding to the

:13:27.:13:29.

pressure, not only on the rebels, but also on their friends across the

:13:30.:13:34.

border in Russia. Footage like this has added to growing western charges

:13:35.:13:37.

that Moscow is supplying heavy weapons and fighters.

:13:38.:13:40.

that Moscow is supplying heavy continues to deny. There have been

:13:41.:13:43.

two fact sheets published in recent days, one by

:13:44.:13:45.

two fact sheets published in recent ambassador to the EU, one by the

:13:46.:13:48.

state department in ambassador to the EU, one by the

:13:49.:13:53.

facts and figures, a lot of video, a lot of satellite pictures of things

:13:54.:14:00.

like tanks crossing the border, east to west from Russia to Ukraine.

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Those kinds of things you can spot. But of course smaller arms or even

:14:04.:14:10.

rockets no-one knows their exact provenance. But Russia has been

:14:11.:14:13.

pretty clearly supplying the rebels and supplying them with more in the

:14:14.:14:18.

last few weeks or so. Families have been fleeing the east's main cities,

:14:19.:14:24.

fearing a prolonged Government siege is more likely than a possible

:14:25.:14:28.

ceasefire. The thing that makes it extremely complicated for everybody

:14:29.:14:31.

is you have smaller rebel groups that aren't necessarily connected

:14:32.:14:35.

with the bigger ones. So for the longest time we said that the areas

:14:36.:14:39.

particularly challenging in a sense that larger rebel groups can make

:14:40.:14:43.

some kind of ceasefire agreement, but it is not necessarily honour bid

:14:44.:14:47.

the smaller groups. Rebels preparing to make their next stand in Donetsk,

:14:48.:14:58.

this on going crisis was the biggest post Cold War conflict in Europe. It

:14:59.:15:01.

is souring relations between the west and Russia. It will make the

:15:02.:15:05.

fall-out from the downing of the airliner hugely difficult to

:15:06.:15:10.

predict. I'm joined by my guest, the acting Ukrainian ambassador to the

:15:11.:15:18.

UK. Good evening. What do you have by way of evidence to call this an

:15:19.:15:21.

act of terrorism, which indeed your country has done? First of all let

:15:22.:15:30.

me start by joining my President to the expressions of sympathy to the

:15:31.:15:35.

victims of the act of terror. We feel it is an act of terror. Ukraine

:15:36.:15:40.

has a sophisticated system of air traffic control, we know all the

:15:41.:15:43.

information about the flight. Moreover, we don't have at the

:15:44.:15:50.

military in the National Guard right now the weapons as capable to shut

:15:51.:15:57.

down the airliner at such a high altitude. Interesting though,

:15:58.:16:02.

because Doug Richardson said a minute ago, you might have heard

:16:03.:16:04.

him, that actually the weapon that was most likely, if indeed this was

:16:05.:16:08.

a terrorist attack, to have shot down the Malaysian airliner was a

:16:09.:16:14.

BUK and that is held by the Russians, and Ukrainian forces and

:16:15.:16:19.

also bicepists in Donetsk. Do you actually have these ground-to-air

:16:20.:16:27.

missiles? We have in Ukraine, but not over the area of the conflict.

:16:28.:16:33.

Reportedly some of the BUK systems were taken by the seperatists while

:16:34.:16:38.

taking the control over the territory which is out of the

:16:39.:16:43.

Ukrainian power now. I know there are negotiations for a ceasefire,

:16:44.:16:47.

but all the debris and the dreadful crash screen is in eastern Ukraine

:16:48.:16:52.

which is in rebel hands just now. What chance do you think that the

:16:53.:16:56.

Ukrainian Government is going to be able to get into that area to do a

:16:57.:17:00.

thorough search and recover bodies and for families all over the world,

:17:01.:17:06.

they need to know that they are going to get their families back?

:17:07.:17:10.

First of all I would like to inform you that the President ordered to

:17:11.:17:17.

create the special investigation commission on the participation of

:17:18.:17:22.

the international experts, including from the Netherlands, Malaysia and

:17:23.:17:28.

the international civilian aviation organisations which is with the aim

:17:29.:17:33.

to ensure transparency and a fair investigation. I have the

:17:34.:17:37.

information, I have heard that the seperatists already found the black

:17:38.:17:42.

box, very speedy, very fast and they are intending to remove them to

:17:43.:17:47.

Russia under my information, this is very suspicious. Probably we will

:17:48.:17:53.

see the same situation as it was during the tragic event where the

:17:54.:18:01.

Polish President was killed in the crash. Just to be clear for our

:18:02.:18:06.

viewers, we haven't confirmation that the seperatists have got the

:18:07.:18:10.

black box, we are only hearing rumours of that, that is not

:18:11.:18:13.

confirmed. Are you going to ask for that black box if it is in their

:18:14.:18:19.

hands to come back to you? If we will have the control over that

:18:20.:18:23.

black box, of course we will act together with the international

:18:24.:18:29.

experts just tone sure the transparent procedures. Thank you

:18:30.:18:32.

very much. Well I'm joined now from -- to ensure the procedures. I'm

:18:33.:18:49.

joined by my guestsures. Thank you very much. Well I'm joined now

:18:50.:18:53.

What do you make of this? First of all I share the ambassador's view

:18:54.:19:01.

that it is the room for doubt is shrinking very rapidly. The plane

:19:02.:19:06.

was clearly shot down, the US Government has now stated that they

:19:07.:19:10.

saw the missile on the radar. It is clear that it came from, it is clear

:19:11.:19:15.

where it came from, from eastern Ukraine. The more important point is

:19:16.:19:19.

the only group of people who have been shooting down planes in Ukraine

:19:20.:19:23.

in recent days are the seperatists together with their Russian backers.

:19:24.:19:28.

The Ukrainian army is not shooting down planes because the seperatists

:19:29.:19:33.

aren't using planes. The only surface-to-air missiles in operation

:19:34.:19:36.

are coming from the seperatist regions, operated by the seperatist,

:19:37.:19:40.

together with the Russian experts who know how to use them. Can you

:19:41.:19:45.

come to you, the allegation will be that the seperatists in eastern

:19:46.:19:49.

Ukraine are getting their hardware from Russia, and now with these

:19:50.:19:56.

dreadful fatalities, surely there will be, if it is proved to be the

:19:57.:19:59.

case that it was the seperatists then the pressure will be on Russia,

:20:00.:20:06.

will be on Vladimir Putin? The fatalities are on a dreadful scale,

:20:07.:20:10.

that is really sinking in. I mean the percentage of Dutch people who

:20:11.:20:14.

were killed in this is greater than the percentage of Americans who were

:20:15.:20:18.

killed in 9/11. If this was an act of terror this is an act of terror

:20:19.:20:22.

on a really serious scale. It does point back to Russia and the

:20:23.:20:27.

Russians have been very quick to react they have already blamed the

:20:28.:20:31.

Ukrainian Government. That seems unlikely, it seems unlikely that any

:20:32.:20:36.

Government would be behind this. The weapons' systems seem most he likely

:20:37.:20:40.

to have brought about this disaster when in the hands of

:20:41.:20:43.

non-Governmental forces. That is the most likely scenario, and in

:20:44.:20:47.

addition to the arguments that you had an incomplete system who were

:20:48.:20:53.

not experienced and shooting down whatever they happened to see. This

:20:54.:20:56.

is the kind of thing that happens when you deliberately destroy

:20:57.:21:00.

authorities and allow arms to go across your own border in order to

:21:01.:21:04.

create chaos. What begins as a kind of political fantasy of Russia that

:21:05.:21:11.

has territories that will fall into line, now becomes an international

:21:12.:21:17.

catastrophe, it is the fantasy meeting reality as large numbers of

:21:18.:21:21.

people have been killed. This idea that it is dreadful catastrophe for

:21:22.:21:26.

295 families, but it is an international catastrophe, and

:21:27.:21:29.

Russia is denying any involvement in this. Tell me from where you are

:21:30.:21:33.

standing, what does it look like for Russia? It looks like very bad news

:21:34.:21:38.

for Russia, of course. The evidence is accumulating that their clients

:21:39.:21:42.

in eastern Ukraine were responsible for this. Inevitably it adds to the

:21:43.:21:46.

international pressures they find themselves under. Not only from the

:21:47.:21:51.

west, but from the nonaligned, whoa on the whole, so far, have remained

:21:52.:21:54.

on the fence with regard to this dispute. If the Russians are wise

:21:55.:21:59.

and they are on the whole pretty shrewd about this stuff, they will

:22:00.:22:05.

work quite hard to distance themselves from the seperatists in

:22:06.:22:11.

eastern Ukraine, and they will support investigations of the

:22:12.:22:13.

incident. They will try to make it clear they get their weapons from

:22:14.:22:16.

somewhere else. They will continue a process already under way, which is

:22:17.:22:19.

gradually letting those seperatists go, and let the Ukrainians reoccupy

:22:20.:22:23.

the east. So what do you think is going on in Moscow right now,

:22:24.:22:27.

tonight? I think there are probably some anxious conversations going on,

:22:28.:22:31.

and they will be looking for ways to minimise the damage and, as I say,

:22:32.:22:35.

to distance themselves from this catastrophe. Is that your analysis?

:22:36.:22:39.

I would disagree a little bit in that it looks like in the last few

:22:40.:22:43.

days the Russians have actually been stepping up their involvement with

:22:44.:22:46.

eastern Ukraine. There have been more weapons coming over the board e

:22:47.:22:49.

there is more evidence of Russian involvement. There were some

:22:50.:22:52.

Ukrainian military successes a couple of weeks ago, there has been

:22:53.:22:56.

a big Russian response recently. So far from pulling out of this or

:22:57.:23:00.

showing any signs of pulling out of it, they have been pushing the

:23:01.:23:03.

border more and more and pushing into it. The question is now whether

:23:04.:23:09.

this is a sufficient wake-up call to anger the west to finally, so we can

:23:10.:23:14.

finally drop the idea that this is some kind of local people, this is

:23:15.:23:18.

some kind of movement with legitimacy, and we can now

:23:19.:23:20.

understand it for what it is, which is a major Russian intervention into

:23:21.:23:26.

the affairs of its neighbours. A major Russian intervention which

:23:27.:23:29.

indeed the international community has stepped back from for a while,

:23:30.:23:33.

do they need to step up to the plate too? Russia has been very successful

:23:34.:23:38.

of playing the game of masking what it is doing, we are sort of

:23:39.:23:41.

involved, not really involved, some of our weapons are there, we don't

:23:42.:23:46.

know how they got there. Now it is time for the west to stop listening

:23:47.:23:51.

to this game and playing by this ridiculous Russian rhetoric and be

:23:52.:23:54.

clear of what is happening, this is an invasion. What do you think the

:23:55.:23:57.

international community should do now about the whole problem in

:23:58.:24:01.

eastern Ukraine, and the problem with dealing with Russia? In so far

:24:02.:24:09.

as this action is concerned, I agree with the ambassador, in principle,

:24:10.:24:13.

it would be good if Russia said now is the time for an international

:24:14.:24:17.

investigation, thus far, unfortunately, they have done

:24:18.:24:21.

exactly the opposite. They have asked Ukrainian authorities to give

:24:22.:24:24.

Russian authorities responsibility for the investigation. Which is

:24:25.:24:27.

exactly the opposite of what would normally happen in exactly the

:24:28.:24:31.

opposite of what should happen. This ought to be a turning point where we

:24:32.:24:37.

begin to destinge given the alternative reality that the Putin

:24:38.:24:40.

regime has been presenting to us. This is some kind of internal crisis

:24:41.:24:45.

and Ukrainian affair, that there is something wrong with the Ukrainian

:24:46.:24:49.

Government and Russia has historical rights. This is an alternative

:24:50.:24:53.

reality we have shown we can live with, but we ought not. I was going

:24:54.:24:58.

to say to the formeram bass do is that the problem -- former

:24:59.:25:04.

ambassador, is it that we in the international community have been

:25:05.:25:07.

sending the wrong signals and almost part of what is going on in eastern

:25:08.:25:17.

Ukraine? Well I don't think we have been very effective, but I don't

:25:18.:25:20.

think the things that we have done have actually been calculated to

:25:21.:25:23.

push the Russians in the right direction any way. To the extent we

:25:24.:25:27.

generate the impression in Russia that this is an east versus west

:25:28.:25:32.

conflict, it becomes much harder for Putin to back off. I accept Anne's

:25:33.:25:37.

point that the Russians have occasionally moved forward in

:25:38.:25:42.

backing the seperatists and then occasionally moved back. They have

:25:43.:25:44.

moved a long way barks they were at one point poised to invade and fight

:25:45.:25:50.

war in eastern Ukraine. Since then they have let the Ukrainian army

:25:51.:25:54.

gain traction and space in the area. The product of this event, this

:25:55.:25:59.

tragic event is I suspect that the Russians will feel constrained to

:26:00.:26:04.

move further in that direction. That is a good thing but at huge price. I

:26:05.:26:10.

wanted to turn the ambassador for the last world, what will Ukraine do

:26:11.:26:15.

and what do you want the rest of the world to do? We need the reaction of

:26:16.:26:19.

the European countries corporately to deal with this tragic event. We

:26:20.:26:24.

need assistance, it is clear enough for us that we are fighting with the

:26:25.:26:29.

military machine, the number three in the world rank. We are not the

:26:30.:26:32.

richest country of Europe, but we are living in the small European

:26:33.:26:42.

home where we together standing for our values.

:26:43.:26:48.

Israel has begun a ground offensive in Gaza with troops landing on the

:26:49.:26:51.

very beach where four Palestinian boys died yesterday. In a statement

:26:52.:26:54.

from Binyamin Netanyahu's office, the reason for the offensive was

:26:55.:26:58.

given as hitting the terror tunnels from Gaza into Israel. While Hamas

:26:59.:27:01.

warned tonight that the invasion will have dreadful consequences.

:27:02.:27:05.

Just before we came on air I spoke to our correspondent in Tel Aviv.

:27:06.:27:14.

Do you think there was an inevitability that the Israelis

:27:15.:27:18.

would launch a ground invasion, or did something happen today to make

:27:19.:27:22.

that? The Israelis say that they were all prepared for a ceasefire.

:27:23.:27:26.

That Egypt had brokered a deal and that Hamas rejected it. We have take

:27:27.:27:34.

that with a heavy pinch of salt. Neither Egypt for the Israelis are

:27:35.:27:37.

friends of Hamas. But the one thing that does seem to have tipped the

:27:38.:27:41.

balance in favour of a ground invasion was this attempted

:27:42.:27:44.

incursion, infiltration, if you like, by heavily armed Palestinian

:27:45.:27:49.

gunmen from Gaza this morning into Israeli territory. Their

:27:50.:27:55.

rocket-propelled grenades and they had automatic weapons. They were

:27:56.:28:00.

intending to target a kibbutz inside Israel proper. 13 gunmen tried to

:28:01.:28:03.

make it through. We were down in that area today and there was a huge

:28:04.:28:10.

military operation taking place on the Israeli side, lots of heavy

:28:11.:28:16.

armour and well-armed troops. So Israel it does seem that particular

:28:17.:28:23.

event has pushed Israel further. There are consequences to a ground

:28:24.:28:28.

incursion, we have already seen 230 civilian, Palestinian civilians

:28:29.:28:35.

killed through aerial bombardments and naval bombardments, . Gaza is

:28:36.:28:49.

highly prop populated and Hamas are known to put people as shields. Will

:28:50.:28:55.

Israel have Hamas under the thumb after all this? I spoke to a Israeli

:28:56.:29:00.

official a while a he said we are not looking for some kind of Band

:29:01.:29:04.

Aid solution here, we want something more than that. Israel is not intent

:29:05.:29:09.

on a temporary pause in stopping Hamas rockets. It wants to stop them

:29:10.:29:17.

permanently. Is it realistic? Probably not, Israel has to attempt

:29:18.:29:21.

that. You can't do it from air or sea, if you want to get to the

:29:22.:29:27.

supplies that Gaza has in its many thousands you need boots on the

:29:28.:29:30.

ground. When it comes to boots on the ground you start getting Israeli

:29:31.:29:38.

casualties. We are ten days in to Operation Protective Edge, as it was

:29:39.:29:44.

called. Only one dead Israeli but many Palestinians. That won't remain

:29:45.:29:48.

the case when Israeli troops are on the ground. We have seen when they

:29:49.:29:54.

made a small incursion a few days ago that they suffered casualties,

:29:55.:29:59.

only light ones but when you send in so many troops, and commanders deep

:30:00.:30:04.

on the beach in gas star, they will be backed up by troops on the

:30:05.:30:09.

ground. The likelihood for casualties on both sides increases

:30:10.:30:15.

dramatically. I spoke to my guest, a professor of political science in

:30:16.:30:19.

Gaza via Skype. After the efforts by Egypt and many

:30:20.:30:24.

other countries in the region to try to broker a ceasefire between Hamas

:30:25.:30:30.

and the Israelis and these efforts did not lead to our positive

:30:31.:30:35.

results, it was expected that the Israelis sooner or later would start

:30:36.:30:39.

a ground invasion against the Gaza strip. But I have to admit we didn't

:30:40.:30:44.

think it would happen tonight. We hope were hoping that there will be

:30:45.:30:50.

a new ceasefire within the coming 48 hours, it seems to me that the

:30:51.:30:57.

operations by Hamas operatives today in which Tony Blair team members of

:30:58.:31:01.

Hamas infiltrated from a tunnel inside Israel, that put more

:31:02.:31:06.

pressure on the Israeli army to try to invade limited areas of the Gaza

:31:07.:31:11.

strip to respond back against the infiltration of Hamas members.

:31:12.:31:17.

Do you think in fact this might finally put paid to Hamas's

:31:18.:31:23.

strength? It seems to me that Hamas is gaining some support for its be

:31:24.:31:32.

launching missiles against Israeli towns and villages. It will be too

:31:33.:31:36.

early to see what the Palestinian mood is. Let me say in my duty to

:31:37.:31:41.

Palestinians, that they are angry and tired of this repeated scenario,

:31:42.:31:49.

for the past six years this is war number three against the Gaza strip.

:31:50.:31:55.

Now I would imagine that the Palestinians are sick and tired of

:31:56.:32:01.

being subjected to an Israeli war and Israeli aggression. This is not

:32:02.:32:09.

the time to criticise Hamas, whether right or wrong. The Palestinians

:32:10.:32:14.

refrain at the moment to get beside Hamas. The majority are keeping

:32:15.:32:19.

silent to what is happening right now. But once this war is over I

:32:20.:32:30.

will be very definite that the Palestinians evaluate what they have

:32:31.:32:34.

gained and lost from this war. And that would be the time to see

:32:35.:32:40.

whether Hamas has gained or not. Isn't this a chance for the

:32:41.:32:44.

Palestinian Authority and Fatah to exert some kind of influence and

:32:45.:32:48.

control over Hamas. This is your last chance? A reconciliation

:32:49.:32:57.

agreement was reached on April 23rd three months ago, and a new

:32:58.:33:01.

Government was put into effect on June 2nd, with the approval of

:33:02.:33:07.

Hamas. It seems to me the Palestinian President, Abbas, is

:33:08.:33:10.

trying through his diplomatic means to convince Hamas to agree to a

:33:11.:33:15.

ceasefire with the Israelis, but he wasn't able to convince them Hamas

:33:16.:33:23.

is basically behaving as the de facto party here in the Gaza strip.

:33:24.:33:30.

They do not listen to either the President or Fatah. That might have

:33:31.:33:35.

even bigger ramification force the continuation of the unity Government

:33:36.:33:42.

between Hamas and Fatah. Once the war is over.

:33:43.:33:45.

Israel's ambassador to the UK is with me now. Was the decision to

:33:46.:33:54.

invade taken today as a result of the attempt and on incursion into

:33:55.:33:57.

invade taken today as a result of the kibbutz or what is the plan?

:33:58.:34:01.

This is a phased operation, even in the face of these 1,500 rockets

:34:02.:34:07.

fired on us, we wanted to give Hamas the chance not to escalate, we

:34:08.:34:13.

wanted to deescalate, that is why we accepted the Egyptian ceasefire

:34:14.:34:16.

proposal and a humanitarian window today. It was always going to be a

:34:17.:34:22.

humanitarian window and resumption of hostilities? Even in the face of

:34:23.:34:28.

it we saw no attempt for Hamas to escalate. The point of the

:34:29.:34:31.

escalation is not just in the missile, we have had 1,500 rockets

:34:32.:34:37.

and missiles this month. Also as you said a number of new lethal attacks

:34:38.:34:42.

including from the sea and these terror tunnels. Including the tunnel

:34:43.:34:46.

today. We are in a situation where you have had one fatality and the

:34:47.:34:50.

Palestinians have had nearly 300, most of which are civilians, and

:34:51.:34:54.

after the four boys yesterday we had three children on a roof feeding

:34:55.:34:58.

pigeons. This is not going to be pretty at all for the Israelis

:34:59.:35:02.

either when we grow on the ground. That is why we have tried to avoid

:35:03.:35:07.

it and not escalate it. In a situation where Hamas insists on

:35:08.:35:14.

that, and increasing the number of missiles. The civilian toll is

:35:15.:35:22.

tragic. Pickly our President apologised today for the tragic

:35:23.:35:25.

incident of the three boys. It is worth rembering today that just

:35:26.:35:28.

today we felt, as we have been pointing to, our stockpile of Hamas

:35:29.:35:34.

rockets inside a UN school. When you have that sort of situation... . You

:35:35.:35:39.

perhaps heard earlier in the programme the comment that this

:35:40.:35:42.

could never be actually won or lost from the air, it had to be a ground

:35:43.:35:51.

offensive if you were able to make a point. If you believe the

:35:52.:35:55.

Palestinians will put up people as human shields you will kill more

:35:56.:36:00.

civilians and cause fatalities. You were in there for eight years are

:36:01.:36:07.

you trying to wipe out Hamas? We have made the pledges clear, we have

:36:08.:36:10.

a situation where 5 million Israelis, more than 50% of our

:36:11.:36:17.

population, has to reach within bomb shelters because the Gaza strip

:36:18.:36:21.

doesn't stop firing missiles, if they don't stop we will have to. You

:36:22.:36:24.

know what the Palestinian people want is peace. Therefore what you of

:36:25.:36:32.

have have to do is negotiate for the majority of the people. We were

:36:33.:36:41.

trying hard to negotiate with the Palestinians, but Hamas is not

:36:42.:36:44.

interested in negotiating, they have made it clear, they have not problem

:36:45.:36:50.

with, they are not thinking about peace, they are thinking about how

:36:51.:36:53.

to destroy the state of Israel. All conflict has to be resolved by

:36:54.:36:56.

negotiation one way or another. You say Hamas is not interested in

:36:57.:37:01.

negotiating, would the Israelis negotiate with Hamas? The British

:37:02.:37:05.

Government won't. Either it is a terrorist organisation, here it is a

:37:06.:37:08.

terrorist organisation, here in Europe it is throughout the world.

:37:09.:37:13.

When will you leave the Gaza strip who will term when you leave? When

:37:14.:37:19.

we can in a way that security of our people. We pulled out 8,000 Israelis

:37:20.:37:29.

and dismandled every settlement and left the greenhouses for an

:37:30.:37:38.

agricultural culture. And Hamas came in and pulled everyone out. We will

:37:39.:37:42.

move out if we can ensure the security of our country.

:37:43.:37:48.

Once an American President always an American President, they keep their

:37:49.:37:53.

title for life. Bill Clinton hasn't been in the Oval Office for ten

:37:54.:37:58.

years. He talks about the deal he made with Hillary when she first ran

:37:59.:38:03.

for the Senate. He was speaking in India as he toured projects on food

:38:04.:38:08.

production, education and women's wealth supported by the Clinton

:38:09.:38:12.

foundation. She sat down and asked him how central the idea of equality

:38:13.:38:16.

is to his work? We have a very special emphasis on it. Not just

:38:17.:38:26.

women with HIV/AIDS or tuberculosis or Malaria, or the need to prevent

:38:27.:38:31.

mother-to-child transition. But the overall focus we had to have to

:38:32.:38:35.

empower women, which requires them to have access to good healthcare.

:38:36.:38:47.

We are really trying to meet with all these empowerment groups. It is

:38:48.:38:52.

an issue Hillary started calling "no ceilings". We want to be supportive

:38:53.:38:56.

of them and not do things that we think are good if they can be a part

:38:57.:39:00.

of what we are doing. We want to give them a chance to make the most

:39:01.:39:03.

of their lives. How do you do that in a country that institutionised

:39:04.:39:09.

inequality through the caste system that says some Indians are better

:39:10.:39:14.

than others Indians. You have to fight it and you have to do it, I

:39:15.:39:23.

think, in wherever possible specific concrete ways. Th don't raise all

:39:24.:39:31.

the cultural red flags. If you find something specific that is

:39:32.:39:34.

empowering for women and girls, then you can build on it and make it

:39:35.:39:38.

bigger and better. You are a globalist, you believe in the wider

:39:39.:39:44.

world here. Politically militarily, America now seems to be moving

:39:45.:39:49.

towards a noninterventionist position? Certainly on the military

:39:50.:39:56.

front, I think there are, there is probably a majority of our people

:39:57.:40:02.

who believe we made a mistake after 9/11 to jump into Iraq. Ooh And who

:40:03.:40:13.

have been frustrated by the inability to resolve the election in

:40:14.:40:16.

Afghanistan. Are you one of those people? My gut is we will resolve

:40:17.:40:22.

that and if they will ask the United States to stay involved. Because

:40:23.:40:29.

they have, there has really been a lot happen in Afghanistan. I think

:40:30.:40:36.

that probably that thing will fix itself up in the next few weeks. You

:40:37.:40:41.

say Afghanistan but don't mention Iraq? I don't know what will happen

:40:42.:40:49.

in Iraq yesterday. I think that based on what the Iraqi moderate

:40:50.:40:59.

Sunni do at the end of the gulf conflict they could probably play a

:41:00.:41:03.

very major role in holding the country together and in sharing

:41:04.:41:06.

responsibility for the future of the country. But Mr Mallon has

:41:07.:41:16.

-Al-Maliki has to be consistent on giving them equal partnership or

:41:17.:41:20.

leave office and given someone else a chance to do that. Is many part of

:41:21.:41:27.

the solution with America? Are -- is Iran part of the solution with

:41:28.:41:34.

America? They could be, it will be give if they -- difficult if they

:41:35.:41:42.

keep asking for amount of centre fewing and -- centre fuge more than

:41:43.:41:49.

anyone else. There is very little leadership coming from America right

:41:50.:41:53.

now? They west need leadership, is that what you said. Don't we? Yes,

:41:54.:42:00.

but we have to deal with the intervening event. We are now

:42:01.:42:03.

involved in a very intense set of negotiations with Iran. Over how

:42:04.:42:24.

much of their, of their centrefuges they are going to take adown. We

:42:25.:42:34.

need to have alliances in the Iran, Iraq and Syria area. In terms of

:42:35.:42:41.

Israel and Gaza. When you were President you were the mediate to

:42:42.:42:44.

very hands on, now there is no Egypt, there is no America there? I

:42:45.:42:53.

was, but we also remember we had a very different circumstance there.

:42:54.:43:00.

That is there was an operating majority in Israel under both Prime

:43:01.:43:07.

Minister Netenyahu and Mr Rabin before. And then Barak afterwards,

:43:08.:43:14.

to keep working with the Palestinians and keep trying to work

:43:15.:43:18.

things out. It was a lot easier to do it when the Government wants to

:43:19.:43:25.

do it. Let's talk a little clears to home, how transformative will it be

:43:26.:43:29.

to have a woman President in the White House? Do I think it would be

:43:30.:43:33.

a good thing. Do you think it would be transformative? Depending on what

:43:34.:43:41.

the President did. It would be at one level transformative just

:43:42.:43:46.

because we have never had a woman elected, so I think that would be a

:43:47.:43:54.

good thing, but if the President showed a remarkable gift for both

:43:55.:44:04.

strength and toughness and for leaving the door open constantly for

:44:05.:44:08.

negotiation. That would be a good thing, it would represent what most

:44:09.:44:14.

people think of. Almost archetypal women's strengths you know. He

:44:15.:44:21.

always says women had the responsibility gene so you can be

:44:22.:44:29.

strong but you also we're going to have to govern with a level of

:44:30.:44:34.

co-operation that we are not used to right now. Are you ready to go on

:44:35.:44:42.

the road for another two years, full slog? No, what I'm ready to do is

:44:43.:44:48.

whatever she wants me to do. I really do believe, I know a lot of

:44:49.:44:53.

people don't believe me when I say this. We have had great life. We

:44:54.:44:59.

love what we are doing now in this foundation. On the other hand if you

:45:00.:45:10.

are President you have the opportunity to do things no-one else

:45:11.:45:14.

does. But you have to really have a theory of the case, you have to have

:45:15.:45:18.

ideas, politics and work at it. And it is an exhausting thing. I have

:45:19.:45:27.

told Hillary repeatedly she would have to make this decision, if she

:45:28.:45:32.

wants my opinion I will give it to her. She wasn't asked for your

:45:33.:45:37.

opinion on whether she should run? Absolutely not. For the last 14

:45:38.:45:42.

years she has had more hands on political experience than I have.

:45:43.:45:51.

First time in our lives. When she ran the last time in 2008 people

:45:52.:46:00.

kept asking me what I think, I just said I think it is her time and she

:46:01.:46:05.

gets to decide and if I can help I will. But we were mashied a very

:46:06.:46:16.

long -- married a very long time when she was deferring to my

:46:17.:46:20.

political career and policy making. I told her when she got elected to

:46:21.:46:26.

the Senate in New York that she had given me 26 years. So I intended to

:46:27.:46:30.

give her 26 years. Whatever she wanted to do was fine with me. If

:46:31.:46:35.

shen't whatted to know my opinion I would tell her. But she had cart e

:46:36.:46:41.

blanche to make whatever decision she wanted to and tell me what I

:46:42.:46:46.

needed to do. I have honoured that. We have just past the half way mark

:46:47.:46:53.

and I have got to live another 12 years or so. So I guess I will have

:46:54.:47:00.

to be living to be 20 to be free at last. It is very important to us and

:47:01.:47:06.

I want her if she wants the job and she believes she can make a real

:47:07.:47:09.

difference and she has ideas to do it. I will be glad to help. I will

:47:10.:47:14.

do whatever I can. But I can tell you this, all these suggestions that

:47:15.:47:20.

she feels entitled to it, that is just not true. That is not true, we

:47:21.:47:26.

have been in too many races over the last 40 years now to believe in any

:47:27.:47:32.

such thing as a sew deal. Bill Clinton. That's all we have time for

:47:33.:47:48.

until tomorrow night, good night. Thunderstorms around as well, and

:47:49.:47:51.

during the day on Friday they will continue to move in order warts from

:47:52.:47:55.

North Wales over North West England into Northern Ireland and south-west

:47:56.:47:59.

Scotland. Heat and

:48:00.:48:00.

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