19/08/2014 Newsnight


19/08/2014

News stories with Kirsty Wark. Including are interest rates staying low, Daniel Barenboim on Gaza, Missouri, are women MPs a problem for the men and the evil Buddleia.


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Transcript


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The cease-fire in Gaza is over as Palestinian rockets hit Tel Aviv.

:00:08.:00:14.

There were no Israeli injuries, but they retaliation upon Gaza City was

:00:15.:00:20.

lethal. We will hear from a senior Palestinian politician and Daniel

:00:21.:00:23.

Barenboim, the maestro who conducts his famous orchestra who has hard

:00:24.:00:29.

words for Israel. It has not given Israel the security it hoped for. In

:00:30.:00:36.

the end, to put it bluntly, the Pelleas Dineen -- the Palestinians

:00:37.:00:46.

suffer and Israel loses. Are Mark Carney's wrong predictions making

:00:47.:00:50.

him seem like the unreliable pilot of monetary policy? A retiring

:00:51.:00:58.

Labour MP lets rip about the problem of too many women in Parliament.

:00:59.:01:02.

Stella Creasy is here and she is not smiling.

:01:03.:01:10.

Good evening. Nine days of relative peace for Gazans and Israelis is no

:01:11.:01:19.

more and the deadly pattern has resumed. Gaza says there have been

:01:20.:01:23.

35 air strikes and another Palestinian child is reportedly

:01:24.:01:27.

dead. Hamas said they have fired 40 rockets at Israel. Israeli bomb

:01:28.:01:33.

shelters are open again and earlier today Israel calls its negotiators

:01:34.:01:40.

back from Cairo claiming Hamas had breached the cease-fire. Our

:01:41.:01:44.

correspondent is in Gaza City. Yolande Knell, first of all, what is

:01:45.:01:49.

happening in Gaza City tonight? Right now, you might be able to hear

:01:50.:01:55.

the sound of Israeli drones once again. We have seen in the past few

:01:56.:02:00.

minutes Palestinian rockets being fired towards Israel and we have

:02:01.:02:04.

seen through the past few hours Israeli has strikes -- Israeli air

:02:05.:02:17.

strikes. Close to our office in Gaza City, we heard four or five blasts

:02:18.:02:23.

as there was an Israeli air strike targeting a house. This is work a

:02:24.:02:30.

small girl, we are told, was killed along with two Palestinian women.

:02:31.:02:35.

Also 15 people had to be dug out of the rubble, many of them badly

:02:36.:02:39.

injured. These are scenes the likes of which are zones thought they had

:02:40.:02:44.

put behind them after the recent lull in the fighting -- which the

:02:45.:02:53.

cars ons. -- Gazans. Apparently one was aimed at Ben Gurion Airport? We

:02:54.:03:04.

know Israel's Iron Dome Israel -- Iron Dome defence system has

:03:05.:03:09.

intercepted some, but we are told a rocket landed close to the airport.

:03:10.:03:17.

This will have been of huge symbiotic significance for the

:03:18.:03:31.

Israelis. They said it was partly on revenge for the killing of members

:03:32.:03:38.

of the family here in Gaza City. Also Hamas blaming Israel for the

:03:39.:03:42.

collapse in the cease-fire. Israel says it is Hamas that is

:03:43.:03:47.

responsible. The business of whether or not either side was getting

:03:48.:03:53.

anything out of the negotiations or either side was prepared to

:03:54.:03:58.

compromise, what actually happened? In Egypt, we had repeated signs that

:03:59.:04:03.

little progress was being made in the indirect talks to try to broker

:04:04.:04:07.

a longer term cease-fire deal between Israel and the Palestinians,

:04:08.:04:12.

with the Egyptians acting as go-betweens. Intelligence officers

:04:13.:04:16.

having delegations in separate rooms, trying to put to them a

:04:17.:04:23.

proposal to address Israel's security concerns. It has been

:04:24.:04:26.

demanding the demons drive version of Gaza. The Palestinians in turn

:04:27.:04:30.

have been demanding and easing to the tight border restrictions -- the

:04:31.:04:40.

demilitarisation of Gaza. We understood already that it was

:04:41.:04:43.

proving very difficult to reach any kind of compromise that both sides

:04:44.:04:48.

could sell to their own publics. Joining us from Ramallah in the West

:04:49.:04:56.

Bank is Mustafa Barghouti, former Palestinian presidential candidate.

:04:57.:05:03.

Good evening. Was it the case with the negotiations appearing to go

:05:04.:05:07.

nowhere that Hamas fired three rockets which eventually broke the

:05:08.:05:13.

cease-fire? Well, the most important problem has been that the talks did

:05:14.:05:19.

not move an inch for 18 days because Israel rejected and refused every

:05:20.:05:26.

proposal presented by the Egyptians. Benjamin Netanyahu and his

:05:27.:05:28.

government clearly had the intention of making the cease-fire fail and

:05:29.:05:33.

preventing an agreement of a long lasting cease-fire. Had the three

:05:34.:05:38.

rockets not been fired, the chances are... Maybe the deadlock... Maybe

:05:39.:05:49.

do, say she would have continued. Unfortunately the western media is

:05:50.:05:52.

reporting this single act of violation of the cease-fire, but

:05:53.:05:56.

they never reported the fact that Israel violated the cease-fire in

:05:57.:05:59.

three different ways. In every minute of every cease-fire, it

:06:00.:06:04.

Israel continued to fly a military planes over Gaza. They also fired at

:06:05.:06:10.

the farmers working in Gaza and their ships continue to fire on the

:06:11.:06:16.

fishermen who are trying to fish on the shore of Gaza. In reality,

:06:17.:06:22.

Israel violated the cease-fire, but negotiations did not stop. The three

:06:23.:06:28.

rockets were not fired by Hamas. Whoever fired them may be violated

:06:29.:06:31.

the agreement but it was not an excuse for all of the attacks by the

:06:32.:06:36.

Israelis which started to take the lives of children and civilians

:06:37.:06:41.

again. If Hamas did not fire the three rockets, it is fair to say

:06:42.:06:46.

that Hamas is in charge of security in Gaza and they should be able to

:06:47.:06:53.

stop any renegades. That is Hamas's responsibility. I am not sure if

:06:54.:06:58.

Hamas is responsible for security since Israel is not clarifying

:06:59.:07:03.

whether it is occupying Gaza or not. If you have an interview with any

:07:04.:07:08.

Israeli official, I wish you would ask them the question, is Israel

:07:09.:07:13.

occupying Gaza and if it is, why is it bombarding people there, killings

:07:14.:07:17.

of millions, killing mainly women and children -- killing civilians,

:07:18.:07:23.

and injuring more than 10,000 people? If it is not occupying Gaza,

:07:24.:07:29.

why is it imposingly blockade and preventing Palestinians having free

:07:30.:07:32.

access to the world, why is it causing this terrible humanitarian

:07:33.:07:41.

crisis? In reality, there was a very good opportunity... Let us talk

:07:42.:07:43.

about the opportunity. There are several groups, in the

:07:44.:07:50.

negotiations, including Hamas and Fatah. What were the Palestinian

:07:51.:07:55.

groups, and I know you are not in the negotiations, but what were the

:07:56.:07:59.

Palestinian groups offering up on the leek as a compromise? I met with

:08:00.:08:05.

the negotiators -- offering up as a compromise? I met with the

:08:06.:08:10.

negotiating team when it was preparing its final paper that would

:08:11.:08:14.

be presented to the Egyptian side, to pass to the Israelis. The

:08:15.:08:20.

Palestinian delegation was an agreement, there was no

:08:21.:08:24.

disagreement. An agreement that there will be a lasting and complete

:08:25.:08:32.

cease-fire, lasting one, in addition to lifting the blockade of Gaza.

:08:33.:08:42.

Today Israel is in contradiction not with Hamas, but with all

:08:43.:08:46.

Palestinians, including the Palestinian Authority. The

:08:47.:08:49.

delegation in Cairo was headed by a representative of the Palestinian

:08:50.:08:54.

Authority. To claim it is a fight with Hamas is not right, it is a

:08:55.:08:58.

fight with all the Palestinian people. In my opinion, Israel and

:08:59.:09:03.

Benjamin Netanyahu are trying to consolidate their occupation in Gaza

:09:04.:09:10.

and they are trying to impose this siege and suffocate Palestinians not

:09:11.:09:14.

only in Gaza but also in the West Bank where attacks to -- continue to

:09:15.:09:23.

happen. Evidence Israelis and Arabs can live and work in harmony is the

:09:24.:09:26.

West-Eastern Divan Orchestra founded and led for the last 15 years by one

:09:27.:09:32.

of the world's leading conductors. Daniel Barenboim's orchestra made up

:09:33.:09:36.

of young Israelis, Palestinians and others from neighbouring countries

:09:37.:09:39.

will perform at the Proms tomorrow and the programme will include

:09:40.:09:43.

specially commissioned works by composers of Israeli and Arabic

:09:44.:09:47.

origin. I spoke to Daniel Barenboim earlier and asked how the situation

:09:48.:09:52.

in Gaza had affected his orchestra. It is a very tragic moment. It is a

:09:53.:10:05.

moment of horrific violence. Something that even this region that

:10:06.:10:14.

has seen so much violence has seldom experienced. In the end, you see the

:10:15.:10:21.

suffering of the Palestinians, with so many children and young people

:10:22.:10:28.

killed in Gaza, over 50% of the population of Gaza is under 15 years

:10:29.:10:33.

old. So think of the hatred that this has left for the future. Nobody

:10:34.:10:43.

in this case things of tomorrow, let alone the Day after tomorrow. And it

:10:44.:10:49.

has not given Israel the security had hoped for. In the end, to put it

:10:50.:10:54.

bluntly and crudely, the Palestinians suffer and the Israelis

:10:55.:10:58.

lose so what is the point of it? Powers the orchestra changing and

:10:59.:11:08.

evolving? -- how is. In the present situation with Gaza, I was sure some

:11:09.:11:16.

people would back out and would cancel, saying, I cannot now play

:11:17.:11:20.

with the other. And I would have understood it. I am so happy and so

:11:21.:11:29.

proud, I say that unashamedly, so proud but not one musician cancelled

:11:30.:11:37.

coming. Will it be harder, do you think, to recruit for the orchestra?

:11:38.:11:44.

Is it harder now? The political situation now is much worse than 15

:11:45.:11:51.

years ago. So the simple answer is, yes. The more complex answer is, it

:11:52.:12:05.

is more complicated, rather than more difficult. Do you think it will

:12:06.:12:10.

give an added a motion to tomorrow night's performance? Everyone is

:12:11.:12:15.

watching Palestinians playing their instruments in harmony with Israelis

:12:16.:12:19.

and vice versa -- added emotion. A few days ago we played in

:12:20.:12:25.

Switzerland. In the middle of this, I realised, there comes the flute

:12:26.:12:33.

solo, I looked and this group of Arabs in the orchestra were wishing

:12:34.:12:37.

him the best and were trying to support him. And a few minutes

:12:38.:12:44.

later, when it was the clarinet, the group of Israelis, as part of the

:12:45.:12:50.

orchestra, supported him too. Where else do you have that? What do you

:12:51.:12:56.

feel about boycotting arts events run by Israeli companies? I think I

:12:57.:13:05.

can understand the impulse to boycott things that come from a

:13:06.:13:18.

country that has not shown enough interest in advancing a peaceful

:13:19.:13:27.

solution which many Palestinians rightly feel. I can understand that.

:13:28.:13:38.

I think one has to differentiate between Israelis who represent the

:13:39.:13:46.

government and cultural people or institutions that do not represent

:13:47.:13:51.

the government. I think that to say I boycott everything that is

:13:52.:13:56.

Israeli, though emotionally may be understandable, it is

:13:57.:13:59.

counter-productive. I think it has to be very clearly defined and I

:14:00.:14:05.

think above all it must not turn into an anti-Semitic tendency. I

:14:06.:14:23.

think the wave of the so-called anti-Semitism, which is in fact

:14:24.:14:27.

anti-Jewish, in the world, is unacceptable. Not only unacceptable

:14:28.:14:34.

because of the history. In the end all its doors is give Hitler a

:14:35.:14:44.

posthumous victory. In 2012 were part of the Olympic opening

:14:45.:14:47.

ceremony. You brought harmony weather was discord and must've been

:14:48.:14:51.

a big for you. Were you more optimistic then than now? I have

:14:52.:15:00.

optimism because the world Nevers tops. It always continue. Everyone

:15:01.:15:06.

who has his own personal tragedy in some way or other overcomes these

:15:07.:15:12.

tragedies. And the world develops and goes on. If you tried to look

:15:13.:15:20.

realistically, the world looks terrible now. It looks like the Pope

:15:21.:15:26.

said, on the brink of a third world war. Ukraine, Iraq, the Middle East.

:15:27.:15:41.

But we do not have the luxury of bathing in pessimism. We really do

:15:42.:15:48.

not. It only makes it worse. We have to continue and when we do not

:15:49.:15:54.

believe we have to make believe and eventually make our way.

:15:55.:16:00.

It's the thing that politicians fear and we're told must never

:16:01.:16:03.

But when it plummets, does that create

:16:04.:16:06.

Figures out this morning revealed that consumer price

:16:07.:16:10.

Much weaker than had been expected and well below the Bank of England's

:16:11.:16:15.

So where does this all leave the prospect of interest rate increases?

:16:16.:16:20.

Mark Carney's much heralded arrival as governor of the Bank was

:16:21.:16:23.

a year ago now so does he still look like a white knight?

:16:24.:16:26.

Our Economics Correspondent Duncan Weldon reports.

:16:27.:16:33.

When will interest rates go up? Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor

:16:34.:16:41.

since July last year, is the man supposed to have the answers. When

:16:42.:16:46.

he took over he stressed our important it was that the bank was

:16:47.:16:50.

clear on those things. -- how important. The monetary policy

:16:51.:16:56.

committee must clear and transparent to avoid an unwarranted tightening

:16:57.:17:03.

in interest rate expectations as the recovery gathers strength. One year

:17:04.:17:08.

on the timings of rate rises are far from clear. Unexpectedly weak

:17:09.:17:13.

inflation has added to the confusion. And some of the confusion

:17:14.:17:16.

seems to be coming from the governor himself. We're looking at March for

:17:17.:17:22.

the first right interest rates. But depending on what Mark Carney says

:17:23.:17:27.

day by day, those are shifting significantly. When the so-called

:17:28.:17:33.

rock star central banker was poached from Canada to come to the UK, few

:17:34.:17:39.

expected such confusion. He is the most qualified person in the world

:17:40.:17:43.

to be the next governor of the bank of England. Back when Mark Carney

:17:44.:17:50.

was appointed the economy looked to be facing a triple dip recession.

:17:51.:17:54.

How could he used monetary policy to boost growth? His big idea was

:17:55.:18:01.

forward guidance. By pledging to keep interest rates low he helped to

:18:02.:18:06.

increase confidence in consumers and businesses and persuade high street

:18:07.:18:09.

banks to boost their own lending. But that pledge to keep rates low

:18:10.:18:15.

for longer was based on a set of economic forecasts which rapidly

:18:16.:18:20.

went off track. Forward guidance was first unveiled last year. The bank

:18:21.:18:25.

was clear. It would not even consider raising interest rates

:18:26.:18:30.

until unemployment fell below 7%. And it did not think that would

:18:31.:18:34.

happen until 2016. But it happened earlier this year. So instead of

:18:35.:18:39.

looking at the unemployment rate the bank said it would examine a range

:18:40.:18:42.

of indicators of spare capacity in the economy. But those measures of

:18:43.:18:48.

spare capacity started to fall fast. Now we have another new focus, this

:18:49.:18:54.

time wages. At least one critical former member of the monetary

:18:55.:18:57.

committee is not impressed. If you were to say we do not quite know

:18:58.:19:03.

what is happening, things are complicated and we will follow the

:19:04.:19:07.

data, you can give it a fancy name. But that is essentially what it

:19:08.:19:13.

amounted to and in the end it has come down to an analysis of the

:19:14.:19:17.

labour market and the central bank in the UK under Mark Carney has

:19:18.:19:21.

looked hopeless. It has been taken by surprise. Mark Carney might be

:19:22.:19:28.

the governor but the monetary policy committee actually takes the

:19:29.:19:33.

decision and he is just one vote out of nine. And those nine members are

:19:34.:19:37.

looking at different data. We watching so many metrics and many of

:19:38.:19:42.

those running hot and many cold. It is a difficult task to unpick that.

:19:43.:19:52.

There's no shame in getting your economic forecasts wrong. Most

:19:53.:19:55.

economists get the forecasts wrong most of the time. What is starting

:19:56.:20:02.

to bother critics of the governor is the feeling that the goalposts keep

:20:03.:20:06.

moving. One day it is wages that matter, the next unemployment. In

:20:07.:20:12.

one speech he reassures us that rates will remain low and then he

:20:13.:20:17.

warns that they could have to rise. It is that perceived inconsistency

:20:18.:20:21.

that led one MP to say he's acting like an unreliable boyfriend,

:20:22.:20:26.

blowing hot and cold. So when will rates actually rise? Today we are no

:20:27.:20:32.

closer to an answer. What can be said with confidence is that written

:20:33.:20:35.

statements from the Bank of England have not exactly made the situation

:20:36.:20:43.

any clearer. With me to discuss the prospects for forward guidance is a

:20:44.:20:47.

former member of the monetary policy committee. Forward guidance turned

:20:48.:20:56.

out not to be guidance at all? Guidance is difficult to go with

:20:57.:21:01.

when the goalposts to keep changing. The narrative of the Bank of England

:21:02.:21:07.

changes all the time was up there is inconsistency about what they are

:21:08.:21:09.

trying to measure. When they talk about slack in the economy it is an

:21:10.:21:16.

opaque thing and does move a lot. Mark Carney has undermined the

:21:17.:21:21.

credibility of the bank with this? It was the wrong analysis of the

:21:22.:21:26.

labour market for a start? You have to start with the analytical

:21:27.:21:31.

problems. Forward guidance I forecast was going to be a mistake

:21:32.:21:34.

because it focused on what the bank was doing rather than on the

:21:35.:21:40.

forecasts. You have to put things in terms of the forecasts. As you noted

:21:41.:21:43.

in that report a number of members of the monetary policy committee,

:21:44.:21:48.

kept getting it wrong on the labour markets. They were pessimistic about

:21:49.:21:54.

labour supply and about UK product safety and those were mistaken

:21:55.:22:01.

ideas. It seems now that it is low interest rates at any cost. The

:22:02.:22:08.

unemployment forecast is now 6.6. There is no question that will not

:22:09.:22:13.

be rise in interest rates, is there? There is going to be a rise

:22:14.:22:20.

and maybe now it will be February instead of November. But the bias of

:22:21.:22:25.

the committee, not just Mark Carney, has been to say that there is no

:22:26.:22:30.

slack left in the UK economy. It is quite a fake concept but as long as

:22:31.:22:34.

they keep insisting on that then they will be biased towards interest

:22:35.:22:43.

rate rises. What do you do about that? You hold fire and you phrased

:22:44.:22:48.

things consistently in terms of forecasts. You say is not about what

:22:49.:22:52.

I was about to do in future, you said we think growth is going to

:22:53.:22:57.

lead to inflation only if productivity... It turns out

:22:58.:23:01.

employment and productivity were better than we thought and that the

:23:02.:23:06.

bubbly means we should revise our pessimism about the UK. That

:23:07.:23:10.

probably means there is less inflation potential. You have to

:23:11.:23:14.

make an argument and it is not that complicated. The other thing is you

:23:15.:23:17.

do not talk so much. There's a question about why the governor is

:23:18.:23:22.

always out there making a new statement every week. There is a

:23:23.:23:26.

reason why central bank governors generally do not talk this often.

:23:27.:23:34.

You do not want to create confusion. We all know George Osborne would

:23:35.:23:42.

mark Carney to get him here. And now he is being encouraged to talk to

:23:43.:23:47.

supposedly increase our confidence in the economy. He does talk a lot.

:23:48.:23:53.

The forward -- the problem with forward guidance is that it brings

:23:54.:23:59.

the decision very much into the public arena. Mark Carney is trying

:24:00.:24:04.

to assure people that interest rates will not move as the economy

:24:05.:24:09.

changes. That is perhaps why Ely he is providing so much narrative. The

:24:10.:24:15.

problem with forward guidance if people have to believe it for a to

:24:16.:24:21.

work. People do not really believe what Mark Carney is saying to a

:24:22.:24:25.

certain extent. If they do not believe him... I want to emphasise

:24:26.:24:35.

what people do believe and that is that inflation will stay low. So the

:24:36.:24:39.

public and expectations of credibility of the bank have been

:24:40.:24:45.

affected. If there is a doubt about Mark Carney it is the fact, is he

:24:46.:24:51.

making political decisions, in a sense. Is he in cahoots with George

:24:52.:24:57.

Osborne who does not want interest rates to rise? I think the problem

:24:58.:25:03.

is not with him but with forward guidance. There are problems around

:25:04.:25:10.

communication. We've seen it happen before. The messages that people are

:25:11.:25:14.

trying to get across. The problem lies with forward guidance itself

:25:15.:25:21.

rather than with Mark Carney. In terms of whether interest rates will

:25:22.:25:26.

rise, market now expected to be in the early part of next year. There

:25:27.:25:30.

is still a chance it could happen this year. Mark Carney is saying he

:25:31.:25:37.

is looking for wage growth. If you have wage growth that does not

:25:38.:25:43.

actually materialise, low wages and rising house prices and even a

:25:44.:25:48.

quarter percent increase in interest rates, up to 1 million families will

:25:49.:25:55.

be hurting with their mortgages in the lead up to a general election? I

:25:56.:26:02.

think the Bank of England is supposed to be an independent body

:26:03.:26:05.

and will not focus on the general election. Is that the

:26:06.:26:11.

consideration? I think the only consideration is you do not move

:26:12.:26:21.

rates right to run the election. You do not get right in the middle of an

:26:22.:26:26.

election and I -- and I think that is fair and reasonable. But it is a

:26:27.:26:35.

political move? Not at all. It is a party neutral move. You can raise

:26:36.:26:42.

rates in March, June, February. Just not raising them and cause a

:26:43.:26:47.

disruption right at the time of an election. That is not biased towards

:26:48.:26:53.

any one party and it is not about affecting the election. It is the

:26:54.:26:59.

central bank making the best choice it can to stay out of politics.

:27:00.:27:03.

"We over-policed for a few days, and then we completely under-policed."

:27:04.:27:06.

That's the verdict by the Missouri Democrat Senator Claire MCCaskill

:27:07.:27:09.

on the police tactics following the fatal shooting of unarmed black

:27:10.:27:11.

Today a top UN Human Rights official Navi Pillay, speaking in Geneva,

:27:12.:27:16.

said that the clashes between police and protestors in Ferguson were

:27:17.:27:20.

reminiscient of the racial violence spawned by apartheid in her native

:27:21.:27:23.

South Africa and called for an examination of the "root causes" of

:27:24.:27:27.

This is surely the last thing anyone wanted. A few hours ago the police

:27:28.:27:43.

in St Louis Missouri shot and killed a 23-year-old Lachmann, an event

:27:44.:27:49.

that may inflame an already tense local situation. -- black man. For

:27:50.:27:58.

more than a week Ferguson, a modest suburb of the city, has been wracked

:27:59.:28:04.

by protests. And sometimes violence. The unrest has provoked a ferocious

:28:05.:28:07.

police response. Last night there were 31 arrests.

:28:08.:28:15.

Protesters are peaceful and respectful. They do not clash with

:28:16.:28:19.

police. They do not throw Molotov cocktails. This rage was ignited by

:28:20.:28:25.

the killing of Michael Brown, an unarmed like a teenager, by Darren

:28:26.:28:30.

Wilson, a white police officer. On the 9th of August the recent high

:28:31.:28:35.

school graduate was shot six times. And his death has opened up once

:28:36.:28:40.

again the question of race in modern America. Of course I'm heartbroken

:28:41.:28:46.

to watch it but I cannot say I'm shocked. There has been simmering

:28:47.:28:50.

racial tension building in St Louis for years if not decades. Probably

:28:51.:28:56.

longer than that. This is something that for a lot of people who have

:28:57.:29:00.

paid attention to these issues, frankly, St Louis has been a

:29:01.:29:07.

powderkeg and something like this was almost bound to happen. Ferguson

:29:08.:29:13.

is a poor town and an empty one as well. Since 1970 the proposition is

:29:14.:29:16.

fallen by a quarter to about 21,000 people. But it only stayed that high

:29:17.:29:25.

because like families moved from the decaying city of St Louis. The

:29:26.:29:34.

majority black population occurred. Now two thirds of the town. But you

:29:35.:29:39.

would not know it to look at the people building the power. Look at

:29:40.:29:43.

the local school board and the city council. Of the 53 police officers

:29:44.:29:47.

in the town just four of them are black. Meanwhile black citizens

:29:48.:29:52.

account for 86% of all police stops. Having been stopped back people are

:29:53.:29:58.

less like it to be caught carrying contraband but there are twice as

:29:59.:30:01.

likely to be arrested. So just how unusual is the political imbalance

:30:02.:30:09.

in Ferguson on race? I examined a data set from 2001 consisting of all

:30:10.:30:15.

American cities with a population of more than 10,000. And examined the

:30:16.:30:20.

relationship between the percent of the city's opposition that is

:30:21.:30:25.

African-American and the percent of the city council that is

:30:26.:30:29.

African-American. Usually about 60% of the city and African-American you

:30:30.:30:35.

would tend to see Radha the City Council being African American.

:30:36.:30:40.

Ferguson was very different and really stood out from the trend.

:30:41.:30:45.

Back in 2001 at any rate, it had just over 50% of its population

:30:46.:30:50.

African-American and not African Americans on the city council. So

:30:51.:30:56.

why do black voters not just vote for more black leaders? There is

:30:57.:31:02.

certainly quite dominated clique that has controlled politics. They

:31:03.:31:08.

are tied in with the Labour unions. And these labour unions tend to get

:31:09.:31:14.

a lot of jobs from public sector construction and other contracts.

:31:15.:31:18.

Because they're able to do well there are then able to help fund

:31:19.:31:23.

campaigns of favoured allies and keep re-electing them to office.

:31:24.:31:27.

That ends up marginalising most of the black population. One can only

:31:28.:31:33.

hope these exchanges seized today. The racial goblins in Ferguson and

:31:34.:31:39.

St Louis cannot be solved overnight. -- problems. It is amazing how some

:31:40.:31:50.

politicians come forth with views they have been harbouring for many

:31:51.:31:55.

years. Austin Mitchell has to sided to get his concerns about the

:31:56.:32:00.

feminisation of Parliament off his chest. He wrote in the Mail on

:32:01.:32:06.

Sunday, the Commons will be more preoccupied with the local and small

:32:07.:32:10.

problems rather than big ideas and issues. He went on, apart from

:32:11.:32:15.

obsessive feminism, women MPs are more preoccupied with the local and

:32:16.:32:17.

small problems rather than big ideas and issues. He went on, apart from

:32:18.:32:20.

obsessive feminism, women MPs R but it might not make us tougher. Austin

:32:21.:32:22.

Mitchell joins us from Leeds. Stella Creasy, MP is here. Austin Mitchell

:32:23.:32:33.

first of all, why do you think women will be more preoccupied with small

:32:34.:32:39.

problems? Parliament is going that way anyway. We are becoming more

:32:40.:32:43.

like social workers than international statesman. I think it

:32:44.:32:48.

is right to contradict what you said in the introduction to the

:32:49.:32:51.

programmes that the number of women should be increased. Labour has done

:32:52.:32:58.

very well at that and all women short lists have been a good way of

:32:59.:33:03.

doing it but they are democratic. The choice that local constituencies

:33:04.:33:08.

have, it is the only one real power they do have, the choice is very

:33:09.:33:13.

limited. They short lists are very short. My argument is that we have

:33:14.:33:18.

done a lot, we have got the proportion of women up to 43% of the

:33:19.:33:26.

Labour Party. It is time now to let the parties choose who they want and

:33:27.:33:32.

call it a day. That is all I'm saying. I am surprised at the

:33:33.:33:43.

assault from my colleagues, as if I was attacking a sacred item. This is

:33:44.:33:48.

an article in the Mail on Sunday you wrote yourself. Stella Creasy, do

:33:49.:33:54.

you recognise you and other women are more concerned with small

:33:55.:33:59.

problems rather than big ideas? Are lies the drip drip, drip of

:34:00.:34:04.

discrimination and prejudice that women face in every sphere. I read

:34:05.:34:13.

it in sadness when I realised it had been written by you, Austin

:34:14.:34:25.

You are a male MP, Austin. If I said you think exactly the same things as

:34:26.:34:28.

Tony Blair, you would be horrified. Why don't you accord the same

:34:29.:34:35.

privilege to women? Don't hate me and hector me. I am sorry, there's

:34:36.:34:44.

the sound turned up, I am not shouting. I am frustrated that yet

:34:45.:34:48.

again we are seeing women being put down in this way. It is an all women

:34:49.:34:58.

short list that replaced Austin and a former aide to Ed Miliband will be

:34:59.:35:05.

in his constituency. Does he have a point that however laudable all

:35:06.:35:08.

women short lists are, they are not entirely democratic? There are still

:35:09.:35:13.

more men sat in Parliament today than there have ever been women

:35:14.:35:18.

MPs. What he is displaying is a great example of a study that Susan

:35:19.:35:22.

Sarandon did that if a room had 20% women in the ready room thought it

:35:23.:35:34.

was 50-50. If it has 30 stone women, the men think it is more women than

:35:35.:35:39.

men -- if it has 50% women. Labour MPs in Westminster do you think they

:35:40.:35:46.

hold the same view as you? Possibly. I have not asked them. The

:35:47.:35:53.

problem is really with the Conservative and Liberal parties.

:35:54.:35:58.

Let us stick with you. They have not increased the number of women. It is

:35:59.:36:03.

their turn to do something. Let local parties choose whether they

:36:04.:36:09.

want to have a longer short lists with more choice of different types

:36:10.:36:18.

of... Tell me, how many women is asked doing our duty in a party that

:36:19.:36:22.

is designed to promote social justice? Is there a particular

:36:23.:36:29.

number? I am not going to say the proportion. The proportion of women

:36:30.:36:38.

will be over 40%, about 43%. Not parity, not equality, that is

:36:39.:36:43.

enough, is it? I am not suggesting we should have... Let me move on. It

:36:44.:36:54.

damages us all. Countries more equal or more prosperous. We have been

:36:55.:36:59.

thrown massive recession. Having more diverse decision-making is good

:37:00.:37:02.

for everyone and that is the challenge we face. The Tories and

:37:03.:37:06.

the Liberals cannot get their act together, that is no excuse for us

:37:07.:37:10.

not to press on and stand for what we stand for. You said women are

:37:11.:37:15.

more amenable and readable. I can't get a word in. We need to increase

:37:16.:37:22.

the number of women. I agree with Stella. It is no use going on in

:37:23.:37:28.

this kind of fashion. I think women probably are Morley double. The

:37:29.:37:36.

problem will come if we have a 1974 situation or 1951 situation where

:37:37.:37:43.

Labour does not have a powerful majority -- I think women probably

:37:44.:37:49.

are more lead above. We are living in 2014. I am really sad you said

:37:50.:37:53.

this. I really enjoyed being on the Public Accounts Committee with you,

:37:54.:37:58.

with a really strong female chair, Margaret Hodge. She was not

:37:59.:38:02.

leaderboard. We are seeing the drip, drip, drip. Whether it is you,

:38:03.:38:07.

Johnson Johnson, women are being second-guessed by their gender. I do

:38:08.:38:14.

not think women standing for selection should have to either. Do

:38:15.:38:22.

you attract the article? Excluding men altogether on an all women short

:38:23.:38:27.

lists, that is the problem. Is it democratic to exclude one half? Do

:38:28.:38:31.

you think open selections are done on merit? Every political party...

:38:32.:38:40.

Most countries have a quota system because most recognised it is an

:38:41.:38:45.

incredibly solvable problem. We have made 4% progress in 15 years. Very

:38:46.:38:51.

quickly, put the record straight, would you like to see far more women

:38:52.:38:55.

in Parliament? Would you like to see 50%... Let him reply. I would. It is

:38:56.:39:03.

up to the Conservatives and Liberals to have more women on their side. On

:39:04.:39:08.

the Labour side, let us give it a rest and see whether... The barriers

:39:09.:39:15.

have been broken down enough. The last time we had all women short

:39:16.:39:20.

lists, the number increased after we stopped using them. When we stopped

:39:21.:39:26.

using them in 2001, it fell. There is nothing else that makes the

:39:27.:39:31.

difference. Let me have the right to say something on this programme and

:39:32.:39:34.

give local parties the right to choose who they want. Thank you very

:39:35.:39:39.

much indeed. Now, reports reaching us tonight that Islamic State

:39:40.:39:45.

insurgents have released a video that they claim shows the beheading

:39:46.:39:50.

of a US journalist who went missing in Syria almost two years ago. The

:39:51.:39:58.

video entitled Message To America was posted on social media sites. We

:39:59.:40:04.

should stress that at the moment we have no way of verifying the

:40:05.:40:07.

authenticity of the video and a Twitter account that had been set up

:40:08.:40:13.

by the man's family to help find him has called for patience until the

:40:14.:40:18.

authenticity of the video can be established. Of course we will not

:40:19.:40:21.

be showing it, but what has happened? James Foley was a

:40:22.:40:27.

freelance journalist working in the Middle East for a number of years.

:40:28.:40:31.

He went missing in late November, 2012. His family had not heard from

:40:32.:40:37.

her since -- from him since. Islamic State released a video today in

:40:38.:40:42.

which it claims to execute him, beheading him. We cannot, as you

:40:43.:40:47.

say, confirm it is him. His family through Twitter have said they are

:40:48.:40:52.

waiting. We can see a picture of James himself. But we do not know if

:40:53.:40:56.

this is the same person shown in the video. We do not even know yet if

:40:57.:41:01.

the video is legitimate. That is right. There is no indication when

:41:02.:41:07.

it was taken. All we know is it was released today and that it seems

:41:08.:41:11.

quite possible that it was filmed in either Iraq either Syria. The video

:41:12.:41:17.

claims the execution was carried out in response to US air strikes

:41:18.:41:22.

against Islamic State in Iraq and for many people it will bring back

:41:23.:41:27.

memories of for example very gruesome videos of a British civil

:41:28.:41:34.

engineer Ken Bigley executed by Al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2004. IS are

:41:35.:41:40.

claiming to be holding another journalist but we have nobody tell,

:41:41.:41:45.

is that correct? There is a lot of speculation about what is happening

:41:46.:41:50.

and counterclaims. That is in the interests of groups like Islamic

:41:51.:41:54.

State to say they have people in their possession in order to gain

:41:55.:41:58.

leveraged. One thing I should add is that the respected legend that the

:41:59.:42:02.

execute may have been speaking with a British accent. We cannot it. But

:42:03.:42:08.

I have spoken personally to Brits fighting in Iraq with Islamic State

:42:09.:42:11.

so it is not something we can rule out. Thank you. The front pages,

:42:12.:42:16.

obviously that story does not make them, it is too late, but the Daily

:42:17.:42:22.

Mail, Cilla Black, I know my pal is innocent. New violence as US police

:42:23.:42:30.

kill a second man in St Louis. NHS faces funding cut if Scotland says

:42:31.:42:37.

yes. And the Daily Mail, last of all, nurses on home visits cult to

:42:38.:42:42.

ask elderly people, do you want us to let you die? -- nurses on home

:42:43.:42:50.

visits to ask elderly people. That is it tonight. We end with a

:42:51.:42:55.

mysterious YouTube megastar known as Disney Collector. Her movies

:42:56.:43:01.

comprise of nothing more than her hands taking various toys out of

:43:02.:43:05.

packaging. Why is it in anyway interesting? Is not. Except the

:43:06.:43:11.

YouTube channel has somehow clocked up in a billion fits. -- hits. We

:43:12.:43:16.

have no idea why it has got so many. The last surprise is from Jake

:43:17.:43:24.

in the Netherlands. Let us see what we have got here. Hopefully we got

:43:25.:43:44.

another toy. In we go. Jake. This is awesome.

:43:45.:43:58.

It is going to be a cold start in the morning. For many, a sunny start

:43:59.:44:05.

and find no. Sprinkling of showers. -- fine day. Many will avoid the

:44:06.:44:14.

showers and stay dry. A mixture of sunny intervals and showers for

:44:15.:44:17.

Northern Ireland and Scotland. More persistent rain in the north-west

:44:18.:44:23.

later. Shelter through the central belt, most places dry and bright.

:44:24.:44:28.

Even with sunshine, temperatures only 16 degrees. The winds may be a

:44:29.:44:33.

touch lighter than today. A spring clean of showers over the Midlands,

:44:34.:44:38.

East Anglia and the south-east. They will be scattered. Many places

:44:39.:44:45.

avoiding them. Maybe 19, 20 in one or two places. Wales, a scattering

:44:46.:44:49.

of showers. A scattering of showers. They the winds they touch lighter

:44:50.:44:57.

than today. -- the winds. Showers more concentrated on Thursday on

:44:58.:45:00.

Northern Britain. Again it will feel cool. Further south, the showers

:45:01.:45:04.

will be well scattered. Decent chance of a dry day. Decent spells

:45:05.:45:11.

of sunshine early on across parts of the south and east. It will be a

:45:12.:45:16.

cold start to Thursday. Then the showers will develop more widely

:45:17.:45:20.

across northern areas. Temperatures only in the

:45:21.:45:22.

Are interest rates staying low? Daniel Barenboim on Gaza. Missouri. Are women MPs a problem for the men? The evil Buddleia.


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