14/12/2015 Newsnight


14/12/2015

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis.


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Make or break on migration: EU nations are saying no

:00:07.:00:09.

to the Prime Minister's plan to cut the numbers coming to Britain.

:00:10.:00:12.

How does he get out of that one? This evening an ICM poll puts

:00:13.:00:19.

It's immigration that the public wants to see movement on. Tonight an

:00:20.:00:24.

ICM poll puts support for Britain leaving the EU

:00:25.:00:27.

neck and neck with staying in, and it suggests the Government

:00:28.:00:30.

must get substantial Where are they now? We talk

:00:31.:00:32.

to the family in the first of our series on those who've

:00:33.:00:39.

endured the most perilous of journeys this year. We don't

:00:40.:00:43.

understand the darchingers of the sea. We just put our foot and there

:00:44.:00:49.

on the boat. And the lady with the iron shoulder

:00:50.:00:52.

pads. Steve Smith looks ahead

:00:53.:00:54.

to tomorrow's sale of some Do you have your eye on anything? I

:00:55.:01:03.

do have my eye, in fact I've put in a bid. I'm certainly not going to

:01:04.:01:07.

tell you what it is. Would I be right thinking it's this kind of

:01:08.:01:11.

shape, maybe with a handle on the top. You swine. You swine.

:01:12.:01:18.

We're in the countdown to the crunch.

:01:19.:01:23.

Thursday is the day when David Cameron gets

:01:24.:01:25.

the attention of EU leaders sitting down in one room together.

:01:26.:01:28.

A few hours only, some of that over dinner.

:01:29.:01:30.

But a chance to present his case for a different relationship

:01:31.:01:33.

Now most of it is not going to be difficult.

:01:34.:01:38.

Some of it verges on the banal - a clear commitment to boost

:01:39.:01:41.

competitiveness and productivity, for example.

:01:42.:01:43.

I doubt anyone will argue with that as an objective.

:01:44.:01:47.

But we have to keep coming back to one item causing a headache -

:01:48.:01:50.

the four-year rule: Mr Cameron's idea for getting immigration down

:01:51.:01:54.

is to stop migrants getting in-work benefits for their first

:01:55.:01:58.

The answer from much the EU has been "no".

:01:59.:02:03.

Archive: They carry no arms, but hack saws and destroy no enemies but

:02:04.:02:21.

the artificial barriers. A 50s protest aimed at getting rid of

:02:22.:02:24.

European borders. Today these frolics have given way to something

:02:25.:02:29.

more like fury. David Cameron has had to renegotiate Britain's

:02:30.:02:32.

relationship with the EU. Behind the scenes, the Prime Minister's

:02:33.:02:36.

officials talk about the four EU negotiation demands as four baskets.

:02:37.:02:40.

You may even be able to repeat these off by heart now - an opt out from

:02:41.:02:44.

ever closer union with the rest of the EU. That the EU is a

:02:45.:02:49.

multicurrency union and a group national veto for parliaments. It's

:02:50.:02:53.

the fourth basket that's most empty, immigration. The Prime Minister has

:02:54.:02:57.

acknowledged that other European countries don't support the

:02:58.:03:01.

four-year ban on tax credits. He's openly asking for something else

:03:02.:03:04.

inside. What to put in the fourth and final basket? There are two

:03:05.:03:08.

ideas doing the rounds. The first is the idea an emergency brake and that

:03:09.:03:12.

does what it says on the tin. If levels of immigration to Britain

:03:13.:03:17.

from Europe got to unsustainably high levels, then a brake would be

:03:18.:03:21.

pulled and it would stop. The other idea more aggressively pursued by

:03:22.:03:24.

Downing Street is the idea of a residency test. This would see the

:03:25.:03:28.

four-year ban on tax credits that's proved so hard to get, flipped on

:03:29.:03:32.

its head. Instead both EU migrants and British citizens would have to

:03:33.:03:36.

prove they've been in the country for more than four years before they

:03:37.:03:39.

got their tax credits. There are problems with both these ideas.

:03:40.:03:43.

The problem with the emergency brake is that the commission would decide

:03:44.:03:47.

what constitutes a surge of immigration and the brake could be

:03:48.:03:51.

pulled. So the UK Government isn't super happy with that. The residency

:03:52.:03:57.

test idea, the problem is that Brits returning home from elsewhere in the

:03:58.:04:02.

EU would also have to wait for four years before they could get

:04:03.:04:06.

benefits. Brits who hadn't been anywhere would get a leg up from the

:04:07.:04:10.

benefits system. The last idea is that Brits from the ages of 18 to 22

:04:11.:04:15.

years old would also have to wait four years just like EU migrants.

:04:16.:04:20.

Ways around these problems are being explored inside Government.

:04:21.:04:23.

18-year-olds who stand to lose out, at the moment, could inherit their

:04:24.:04:27.

parents national insurance numbers and to avoid hitting people who live

:04:28.:04:31.

abroad, like armed service personnel, it could be that you'd

:04:32.:04:35.

only need to show you had lived in the UK for four out of every ten

:04:36.:04:39.

years. This afternoon, at an event in Westminster, Tory MPs de-- Tory

:04:40.:04:45.

MPs debated what reforms David Cameron must bring back from Europe.

:04:46.:04:49.

I don't mind in-work benefits for people who are working. It's out of

:04:50.:04:54.

work benefits that concern people. Undoubtedly immigration as such is

:04:55.:04:59.

the biggest issue on the doorstep. I don't equate the in-work benefits

:05:00.:05:02.

with immigration. I don't think that stops immigrants coming in, if they

:05:03.:05:05.

know that they're going to get in-work benefits. I don't think

:05:06.:05:08.

that's the draw. The fact that we have one of the fastest growing

:05:09.:05:11.

economies in the West, there are plenty of jobs around, that's

:05:12.:05:14.

drawing immigrants in, not the benefits. But for others the tax

:05:15.:05:22.

credit demand doesn't go far enough The renegotiation will not provide

:05:23.:05:25.

the fundamental change that the Prime Minister promised. It's not

:05:26.:05:28.

going to bring powers back. It's certainly not going to take back

:05:29.:05:33.

control. This evening an ICM poll, conducted by the vote leave

:05:34.:05:36.

campaign, suggests support for leaving Europe is rising, asking

:05:37.:05:41.

people if they will vote to stay or leave should freedom of movement

:05:42.:05:45.

rules stay the same, 40% said they would vote to stay, but 45% said

:05:46.:05:49.

rules stay the same, 40% said they they'll vote to leave. 40 years

:05:50.:05:52.

after signing up, we're now negotiating a different deal,

:05:53.:05:55.

controlling immigration, not trade, has become the biggest issue. David

:05:56.:05:59.

Cameron's job is to get as much into that fourth basket as other EU

:06:00.:06:06.

leaders will let him. We were commenting on that Thatcher

:06:07.:06:07.

sweater. More on her clothes later. In a moment, we'll hear two views

:06:08.:06:11.

from within the Tory Party but first, let's get a perspective

:06:12.:06:13.

from one of the countries he has to Sven Miksa is the chair of that

:06:14.:06:18.

country's foreign affairs We believe equal treatment of EU

:06:19.:06:22.

citizens irrespective of which passport

:06:23.:06:27.

they carry, is a very important, I would say,

:06:28.:06:30.

fundamental and to pull Just as free movement of people

:06:31.:06:33.

and free movement of labour. So I think that while we are

:06:34.:06:38.

interested in the UK staying a member of the European Union,

:06:39.:06:41.

this is an extremely If you had to choose

:06:42.:06:44.

Britain out of the EU or, Reneging on this

:06:45.:07:01.

important principle, would you renege on the principle

:07:02.:07:03.

or would you see Britain It is only fair that taxpayers,

:07:04.:07:06.

people who work and pay taxes would also be eligible

:07:07.:07:12.

to all the benefits. If the UK benefit system is overly

:07:13.:07:15.

generous, then the UK Government should very seriously

:07:16.:07:18.

consider reforming it. But I think workers,

:07:19.:07:28.

irrespective of whether they have been born in the UK

:07:29.:07:31.

or carry other EU member states passports, should be eligible

:07:32.:07:34.

to similar benefits. Now, it's clear

:07:35.:07:43.

the PM has a problem. Let's imagine we are sitting

:07:44.:07:47.

round a table advising him. There would be different

:07:48.:07:52.

pieces of advice coming from within his own party,

:07:53.:07:55.

and we've a range of two Tory MPs Here in the studio, eurosceptic

:07:56.:07:58.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is on the European Scrutiny Committee,

:07:59.:08:03.

and from Westminster, the more pro-European MP

:08:04.:08:05.

Neil Carmichael, who is the chair Good evening to you both. Imagine

:08:06.:08:17.

the Prime Minister was sitting here, he's got this problem, what would

:08:18.:08:21.

your advice be on this migration issue? I would certainly talk about

:08:22.:08:25.

the residency test as a key part of this. I'd acknowledge we need to

:08:26.:08:28.

control immigration. But actually, it's about Britain taking control

:08:29.:08:33.

itself of its own borders by making the necessary changes through

:08:34.:08:37.

modifying our welfare payment system, as Allan Johnson was

:08:38.:08:41.

referring to yesterday, very sensibly and looking at the

:08:42.:08:44.

residency test in a serious way. When you say residency test, do you

:08:45.:08:50.

mean, look, no-one who's been living here, whether a British passport or

:08:51.:08:55.

Estonian passport gets tax credits until they've been here four years?

:08:56.:08:59.

That doesn't cross this principle that Estonians and British passport

:09:00.:09:02.

holders get different treatment? It does mean that essentially. I think

:09:03.:09:06.

that brings us to the point, there are quite a lot of Britons who live

:09:07.:09:10.

outside Britain and in the European Union. They would have to qualify

:09:11.:09:14.

for a residency test in those terms. We would have to negotiate a way

:09:15.:09:18.

around dealing with, for example, members of the armed forces and

:09:19.:09:21.

others. The key point is to make sure that we are focussed on what we

:09:22.:09:27.

want to acheer, which is a sense -- achieve, which is a sensible

:09:28.:09:30.

reduction of those coming in simply to benefit from welfare payments.

:09:31.:09:35.

What about the idea of converting the plan for the four-year plan into

:09:36.:09:40.

a residency test so that some Brits wouldn't actually get the benefits,

:09:41.:09:45.

do you think that works? I think it's superficially attractive. The

:09:46.:09:49.

problem is that it takes away fundamental rights from people who

:09:50.:09:53.

might have lived here and worked here for 30 years, go abroad for a

:09:54.:09:57.

couple of years because of a posting with their company, you might go off

:09:58.:10:02.

to the BBC's correspondent in Washington and now you're not

:10:03.:10:07.

entitled to benefits having paid if for decades. There isn't a

:10:08.:10:11.

fundamental equality between a British citizen and a foreign

:10:12.:10:15.

citizen. They're a different nature. You're accepting that citizens

:10:16.:10:18.

across Europe should be equal? No, I'm not. I'm saying they're

:10:19.:10:24.

different. We've dealt with that proposal. We're sitting round the

:10:25.:10:28.

table, David Cameron is there, what is your advice? My proposal to him

:10:29.:10:32.

would be to go further and to say that the free movement of people

:10:33.:10:35.

does not work in the British interest, that the European Union is

:10:36.:10:40.

incapable of dealing with a migration crisis across Europe. We

:10:41.:10:44.

took in 183,000 economic migrants from the European Union last year.

:10:45.:10:49.

And that is too many. Therefore we should have the same controls on

:10:50.:10:53.

Europe as on the rest of the world. I see no reason why it's easier to

:10:54.:10:57.

come here from Bulgaria than from India. There should be equality

:10:58.:11:00.

across the world of immigration to the United Kingdom. We're in the

:11:01.:11:06.

meeting with the PM, what do you say to that one? I think the problem

:11:07.:11:11.

with Jacob's proposals is that they affect the activity of business. Of

:11:12.:11:15.

course, business really does need to make sure that labour can move from

:11:16.:11:18.

one place to another. We need expertise. The best way of dealing

:11:19.:11:22.

with that movement is recognising that we ourselves have

:11:23.:11:27.

responsibilities to make sure our skills and education systems provide

:11:28.:11:31.

the labour that we need. That's the remit that I have as chairman of the

:11:32.:11:35.

education Select Committee. It's relevant to this debate because it's

:11:36.:11:38.

critical that we have the kind of labour that we need. I think the

:11:39.:11:43.

other big problem with Jacob's proposal is that it effectively does

:11:44.:11:49.

mean that people who are not here, but who've left Britain and are

:11:50.:11:52.

living in the European Union would actually be badly affected too. Can

:11:53.:11:57.

I not give another problem with the proposal, which is that the

:11:58.:12:00.

Europeans would tell us to get lost. Oh, would they? Would they? The

:12:01.:12:04.

European Union is suffering from a collapse in confidence in the euro

:12:05.:12:08.

and has had to bail out lots of countries. It's suffering from

:12:09.:12:12.

absolute crisis of migration across the European Union and has managed

:12:13.:12:18.

to relocate 184 out of 160,000 people. Then the UK says we're going

:12:19.:12:22.

to leave, we give them ?12 billion a year. We're crucially important to

:12:23.:12:26.

the EU, we just don't want to be signed up to everything. We're not

:12:27.:12:30.

in the euro. We shouldn't be in free movement. We can get labourerers

:12:31.:12:33.

from all over the world. They don't need to be from Europe. Do you think

:12:34.:12:37.

the rest of Europe would go along with that plan if we called their

:12:38.:12:41.

bluff on it? I do think we have to bear in mind there are another 27

:12:42.:12:46.

nation states involved in this. We do have some issues not least, what

:12:47.:12:50.

are we going to do if we left the European Union? And Jacob's looked

:12:51.:12:57.

at the Norwegian solution, almost - I've never looked at the Norwegian

:12:58.:13:01.

solution. He's talking about the 10 billion or so that we pay. The

:13:02.:13:06.

Norwegians pay the equivalent for not being in the European Union at

:13:07.:13:09.

all. That's something we have got to think about. If we wanted to trade

:13:10.:13:13.

with the European Union we would effectively have to pay but have

:13:14.:13:17.

little or no influence of the way the European Union worked. 20

:13:18.:13:20.

seconds each on a third idea, which is David Cameron says OK, I can't

:13:21.:13:25.

get the agreement with the Europeans on the migration issue, I'll give in

:13:26.:13:30.

on that one. How bad would that be? He went into the negotiation asking

:13:31.:13:34.

for nothing, if he got less than nothing, the negotiation will be a

:13:35.:13:37.

complete waste of time. Do you think he can come back and say I'm getting

:13:38.:13:41.

three out of four, my other things will probably be given, I can't get

:13:42.:13:45.

this one, but it's enough. He has got three out of four and that's

:13:46.:13:48.

very secure. He needs to make sure that we do actually get some sort of

:13:49.:13:52.

arrangement about immigration and that is about making changes

:13:53.:13:57.

domestically and encouraging European partners to accept that we

:13:58.:14:00.

need to change. Thank you both very much.

:14:01.:14:03.

Aside from featuring in the UK's EU renegotiation,

:14:04.:14:05.

migration has been THE issue of 2015.

:14:06.:14:08.

Every country in Europe has been affected by it.

:14:09.:14:11.

Whatever opinion we might have of the appropriate response,

:14:12.:14:14.

we have all undoubtedly been affected by some of the pictures

:14:15.:14:17.

of migrants making their hazardous journeys to this continent,

:14:18.:14:20.

Well, this week, as we head to Christmas, we are going to visit

:14:21.:14:25.

some of the characters who feature in three famous photos of the year.

:14:26.:14:29.

Katie Razzall meets the faces of the migrant crisis.

:14:30.:14:31.

I mean, that face, so much agony and emotion in that face.

:14:32.:15:06.

So many migrants have made the treacherous journey by sea from

:15:07.:15:23.

Turkey to Greece. As individuals, most pass almost unnoticed, but one

:15:24.:15:28.

came to symbolise the agony of many. His family survived the journey,

:15:29.:15:32.

just, as people in boats around them drowned.

:15:33.:16:28.

We begin to cry. The water is into the boat and up this moment we feel

:16:29.:16:47.

it is dangerous of death. Death of the sea. But God with us, we begin

:16:48.:16:58.

to cry and pray to God to save us and save our kids.

:16:59.:17:33.

Until now, we cannot sleep, and also the kids cannot sleep alone. They

:17:34.:17:45.

say Timmy, mummy I am frightened and I want to sleep with you. This fear

:17:46.:17:55.

is very terrible and it is hard. They now live in Germany. One family

:17:56.:18:01.

to a room, waiting to find out if their asylum claims succeeds. A

:18:02.:18:04.

million refugees have moved to the country this year. When the picture

:18:05.:18:09.

went round the world, because others on their dinky Assyrian, it was

:18:10.:18:13.

assumed they were. They are Iraqis, teacher and a mechanic who had lived

:18:14.:18:19.

a comfortable life in Baghdad. What happened, why did you have to leave

:18:20.:18:20.

Iraq? Nobody helped me. I am crying all

:18:21.:18:53.

night. Please, anyone help me, they want to kill... When I remember,

:18:54.:19:07.

this moment is destroying me and destroying my life. For that, I sell

:19:08.:19:19.

everything to save my children. For that, I am here. To save my kids and

:19:20.:19:29.

to save my life. After the trials of the last months, the children love

:19:30.:19:33.

going to school. Germany is recruiting thousands more teachers

:19:34.:19:36.

to provide intense language classes for migrants. It is very difficult,

:19:37.:19:43.

it is a grudge. We want to complete education for their kids and they

:19:44.:19:52.

must learn German and it is a new culture, new people, I knew

:19:53.:19:54.

everything. I took the family to their first

:19:55.:20:15.

Christmas market, the German tradition. But attitudes to refugees

:20:16.:20:21.

apparently hardening here, I wanted to know if they had felt any

:20:22.:20:23.

backlash? We are happy now, we are safe from

:20:24.:21:20.

the sea and from the fear. But everything is new for us. Hopes of a

:21:21.:21:27.

new life are tinged with fear that their claim will be refused and they

:21:28.:21:32.

will be sent back to Iraq. And always in the background, the memory

:21:33.:21:34.

of their journey and that photo. We will have two more stories of

:21:35.:22:31.

migrant experiences this year, during the week.

:22:32.:22:34.

The Paris climate change talks - COP21 to give them their technical

:22:35.:22:36.

name - came to a conclusion over the weekend.

:22:37.:22:39.

A big moment obviously, that there was an agreement.

:22:40.:22:41.

Remember, being a UN forum, agreement means everybody

:22:42.:22:43.

Think of the range of quarrelsome countries there, from the US

:22:44.:22:47.

The very big nations to Pacific islands that you didn't even

:22:48.:22:51.

So, yes, it was an achievement, but did Paris meet the Flash Gordon

:22:52.:22:55.

Countries agreed on the objective of keeping temperatures rising by no

:22:56.:23:01.

more than 1.5 or two degrees, but their combined promises

:23:02.:23:04.

on actions to reduce emissions will probably not

:23:05.:23:08.

This is not even a case of constructive ambiguity,

:23:09.:23:13.

which is often necessary to get people together.

:23:14.:23:15.

This was a constructive contradiction.

:23:16.:23:19.

So having had a chance to sleep on it, what view should those

:23:20.:23:22.

who worry about climate change take - glass half full,

:23:23.:23:25.

of the Labour government's Climate Change Act, and the writer

:23:26.:23:33.

and environmental campaigner George Monbiot.

:23:34.:23:39.

Good evening. We asked you to bring something to show and tell which

:23:40.:23:45.

give you grounds for optimism and something to show and tell which

:23:46.:23:50.

perhaps less optimism. What did you want to show others?

:23:51.:23:56.

a chart. And the chart shows that share price of Peabody. There it is.

:23:57.:24:06.

This is showing the steady decline of the share price of Peabody. Also,

:24:07.:24:13.

just today it dropped a further 10% in its share price. The reason I

:24:14.:24:16.

chose this, Paris was all about the message it sends out to the rest of

:24:17.:24:22.

the world, that we are serious about tackling climate change and coal is

:24:23.:24:29.

going to go. Doesn't it show commodity collapse? It is

:24:30.:24:33.

significant because it reduces their lobbying power and reduces their

:24:34.:24:38.

hold over politicians. The politics of Parishad change from Copenhagen

:24:39.:24:44.

and we should have hope because politics is changing. How will it

:24:45.:24:50.

look in a couple of years? There are a load of reasons why it might be

:24:51.:24:55.

falling. I am delighted. I want to see the coal companies go down.

:24:56.:24:59.

Whether they will stay down and it will come up again. George, what are

:25:00.:25:06.

you going to show others? This is a more systemic view, when it comes.

:25:07.:25:12.

This comes from the Paris .org website. It is the black line which

:25:13.:25:18.

is what we have been doing. Carbon emissions from 1990, going up. They

:25:19.:25:25.

have been growing. Then the green line, which is what happens if

:25:26.:25:29.

everybody who brought their promise to Paris, fulfils it and doing it.

:25:30.:25:34.

Then they carry on going up. Then the red line is what would be

:25:35.:25:39.

required if we were to get down to 22 degrees. It is falling off a

:25:40.:25:46.

cliff. If we were 1.5 degrees, which is what they said they wanted, go

:25:47.:25:52.

halfway along the green line and you will see a white line intercepting

:25:53.:25:57.

it. That is the cliff edge with which it would have to fall on a

:25:58.:26:03.

vertical drop. It has done nothing, basically? That is a legitimate

:26:04.:26:09.

chart to put up. It is challenging. It is not impossible to decarbonise

:26:10.:26:15.

the economy. It is easier because of the technologies we will rely on

:26:16.:26:20.

coming down in price. If we had taken the attitude of it is too

:26:21.:26:25.

difficult is so let's not have made any progress. That would have been a

:26:26.:26:30.

downward spiral. We have all these countries coming together to say,

:26:31.:26:34.

this is what we can do and we will put effort into it. We will come

:26:35.:26:39.

back to it year after year. Those are the words crucial to you? Yes,

:26:40.:26:47.

the coming back which is built into the legal text. I would love to

:26:48.:26:51.

believe this. I so want it to be true. But the problem is it is so

:26:52.:26:58.

unambitious, what has been agreed. There is so much hype about it,

:26:59.:27:06.

somebody saying it is a great global deal and they are all applauding

:27:07.:27:08.

themselves and slapping each other on the back. The problem is, if we

:27:09.:27:16.

go round telling ourselves, we have sorted it out, it could undermine

:27:17.:27:21.

the ambition. No difficult decisions were taken, it was promises of

:27:22.:27:26.

difficult decisions? 31 pages of text. The worst-case scenario is we

:27:27.:27:34.

got a page with no text in it. 30 articles of legal text. 2018, we

:27:35.:27:44.

will seek the first review. The first review, but what about the

:27:45.:27:49.

percentage cut by then? A single international piece of paper will

:27:50.:27:52.

not solve climate change, but this is a massive step forward because it

:27:53.:27:56.

signals everyone is on the same page and taking it seriously for the

:27:57.:27:59.

first time and that is worth celebrating. Is there a way

:28:00.:28:04.

international progress is achieved, and that is you get together and

:28:05.:28:07.

agree nothing but it looks like you have agreed. Nixon goes to China and

:28:08.:28:13.

they have agreed there is one China, Taiwan is part of China but they

:28:14.:28:18.

cannot agree if it is Taiwan or China which is the proper China. But

:28:19.:28:24.

having something to agree on, then you move on with the momentum? That

:28:25.:28:29.

was the appropriate approach in 1995 at the first UN climate summit. We

:28:30.:28:36.

are now in a state of emergency. We have a climate crisis which has

:28:37.:28:40.

begun. 1 degrees of global warming already. Things are going to custard

:28:41.:28:46.

left, right and centre because of climate change. We need drastic

:28:47.:28:52.

action. It has got past the time of creating the right framework where

:28:53.:28:56.

we cannot actually do very much, but creates a momentum towards maybe

:28:57.:29:01.

doing something in the future. We have DC drastic action taking place

:29:02.:29:09.

now. We do, but let's not percent Raqqa pretend it will happen right

:29:10.:29:13.

now. It took generations to get rid of slavery. We have technology cost

:29:14.:29:20.

cuts coming down and the demise of the fossil fuel happening. We don't

:29:21.:29:29.

have the time. Remember the words of JFK, we do this not because it is

:29:30.:29:33.

easy, but it is difficult. There are things were using to get the graph

:29:34.:29:40.

down and that is what I'm looking forward to, human ingenuity and

:29:41.:29:45.

politics aligned, we will get there. I hope you are right, I wish I could

:29:46.:29:47.

believe it. Thank you very much. It was about 18 months ago,

:29:48.:29:51.

that an obscure French economist suddenly exploded into

:29:52.:29:54.

global consciousness. Thomas Piketty had written a lengthy

:29:55.:29:55.

book called Capital. It sold millions, arguing that

:29:56.:29:58.

people who have wealth are getting ever wealthier, their capital

:29:59.:30:06.

accumulating yet more capital more quickly than that

:30:07.:30:10.

of ordinary mortals. It struck a nerve and in certain

:30:11.:30:12.

circles, conversation about inequality became

:30:13.:30:14.

a dinner party staple. Well, since then the spotlight

:30:15.:30:16.

on Professor Piketty has faded a little, but he is on the panel

:30:17.:30:18.

of advisors to John McDonnell As he was speaking at UCL in London

:30:19.:30:21.

today, I took the chance to meet up and asked whether his argument

:30:22.:30:26.

still stood after criticisms made First of all I would really

:30:27.:30:28.

like to thank the Financial Times for all the free

:30:29.:30:35.

publicity they have given They seem to be very confused

:30:36.:30:37.

because they started to criticise the book very strongly and then

:30:38.:30:42.

gave me the Best Business Book That being said, it's pretty clear

:30:43.:30:45.

if you look at any billionaire rankings in the world

:30:46.:30:53.

including those published by the Financial Times,

:30:54.:30:55.

that people at the top of the list have been doing

:30:56.:30:59.

better than the middle class and the bottom, including

:31:00.:31:02.

in this country, In a way, if your case was right

:31:03.:31:04.

that capital keeps you rich and allows you to kind

:31:05.:31:09.

of govern the world, it's interesting that

:31:10.:31:11.

there's so much change It's interesting, Forbes

:31:12.:31:15.

have studied their own In 1984, less than half

:31:16.:31:19.

of people were self-made. So people are coming

:31:20.:31:25.

from nowhere into Which is basically

:31:26.:31:31.

a contradiction of the book? In the 19th century,

:31:32.:31:36.

if you made a fortune in a business during the French revolution,

:31:37.:31:47.

the parents were rich, so you always have

:31:48.:31:49.

mobility at the top. A more objective way

:31:50.:31:51.

to look at this is, it's OK to have rich people,

:31:52.:31:55.

people in the middle and people at the bottom, as long as all these

:31:56.:31:58.

groups with the mobility between them are rising,

:31:59.:32:01.

more or less at the same speed. The problem is, this

:32:02.:32:04.

isn't what you see But the average wealth at the very

:32:05.:32:09.

top, taking into account the fact some people have come down,

:32:10.:32:21.

some people have gone up, the average wealth at the top has

:32:22.:32:23.

been rising three to four times faster than the size

:32:24.:32:26.

of the world economy. I thought your case was that this

:32:27.:32:28.

rich lot, they managed to entrench their position

:32:29.:32:31.

because they've But the mobility

:32:32.:32:32.

is really important. If there's mobility

:32:33.:32:39.

about who is in that top league, then your case is much less

:32:40.:32:41.

interesting than the book suggested, Let's take the case

:32:42.:32:44.

of the early billionaires, They have mobility,

:32:45.:32:52.

but then their position can be more entrenched in the sense

:32:53.:32:55.

of their ability to Why is it there is no

:32:56.:32:58.

progressive taxation I think part of the explanation,

:32:59.:33:02.

is the influence of Mark Zuckerberg gives 99%

:33:03.:33:05.

of his shares to a foundation. If you want to call it

:33:06.:33:09.

philanthropy giving, I think it's important that

:33:10.:33:16.

you don't keep control. He might be controlling

:33:17.:33:19.

it to give away. I control which charities

:33:20.:33:21.

I give my money to, I don't have a foundation,

:33:22.:33:29.

but I would like to think I make the decision rather

:33:30.:33:31.

than just giving it to someone. We have to be serious

:33:32.:33:34.

about what is public interest In many countries in order to call

:33:35.:33:36.

this giving to a public interest and charities,

:33:37.:33:43.

then you must lose any control If you are chairman of the board,

:33:44.:33:45.

if your wife is on the board, if your family is

:33:46.:33:54.

on the board, is this Bill Gates, not

:33:55.:33:56.

philanthropy, the Gates Foundation, trying to

:33:57.:34:02.

cure polio, malaria? I think it would be much more

:34:03.:34:04.

convincing if he gave away power. I think we are being very naive

:34:05.:34:07.

about the ideas that we don't need taxation, we just need to wait

:34:08.:34:10.

for billionaires to give some Philanthropy is fine,

:34:11.:34:13.

it's very useful. If it came instead of

:34:14.:34:19.

taxation, if you have people who don't pay tax,

:34:20.:34:27.

like Facebook, it's basically pays no tax, then you say, it's not

:34:28.:34:31.

a problem because I will set up my own system, my

:34:32.:34:38.

own education system and you will see it

:34:39.:34:40.

will work very well. I think this is

:34:41.:34:42.

the end of democracy. I need to ask you about

:34:43.:34:44.

Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, because you are on the Council

:34:45.:34:47.

of economic advisers to John Have you met him, have you actually

:34:48.:34:49.

sat as a council and spoken to him? Would you vote for Jeremy Corbyn

:34:50.:34:54.

and John McDonnell? If I had voting rights in Britain,

:34:55.:35:07.

yes, certainly I would vote The history of the Labour Party

:35:08.:35:10.

in Britain, of course has been marked by the huge failure

:35:11.:35:14.

of Tony Blair, in particular with the Iraq war,

:35:15.:35:16.

which has been a disaster. Tony Blair to care a lot more

:35:17.:35:23.

about social policy, trying to be something

:35:24.:35:27.

with the rest of Europe. It would have been much more

:35:28.:35:30.

clever than go to war. What advice do you give him

:35:31.:35:32.

on income tax and wealth You would put a wealth tax

:35:33.:35:35.

here obviously, that is central What sort of income tax

:35:36.:35:47.

rates would you like? It's not to create some

:35:48.:35:51.

brand-new tax, it is to start from the existing tax and make

:35:52.:35:53.

it more progressive. I see what is important

:35:54.:35:55.

is to reduce the tax rate for the lower property owners

:35:56.:35:58.

and this has to be financed by an increase in higher

:35:59.:36:01.

property values. A lot of people think

:36:02.:36:02.

that would be sensible to change the council tax

:36:03.:36:06.

because it is capped. That's not the end

:36:07.:36:08.

of your view so is it? Come on, you want

:36:09.:36:13.

a much higher income I think making real,

:36:14.:36:14.

progressive tax net wealth and moderate net wealth starting

:36:15.:36:19.

from the existing tax would be This is something for

:36:20.:36:23.

which you don't need the UN or the European Union

:36:24.:36:28.

to agree with this. I'm told the full 25-minute version

:36:29.:36:41.

of that interview will be up on you cube.

:36:42.:36:44.

-- YouTube. She was the Iron Lady,

:36:45.:36:47.

but under those shoulder pads of steel, Mrs Thatcher

:36:48.:36:49.

was a woman who took Her frocks have been at the centre

:36:50.:36:51.

of an unseemly tug of war of late, with reports that the V was too

:36:52.:36:57.

snooty to put them on show - And it's claimed that

:36:58.:37:01.

Lady Thatcher's own family has been divided over what should become

:37:02.:37:04.

of her effects. But some 150 of her outfits

:37:05.:37:07.

and accessories are going on sale Our man scratching his head

:37:08.:37:10.

and inadvertently buying a handbag For Mrs Thatcher, like Oscar Wilde

:37:11.:37:15.

before her, nothing stole Going under the hammer,

:37:16.:37:22.

several of Mrs Thatcher's clutches and pocketbooks,

:37:23.:37:42.

plus all this... # Bobbles, bangles, hear

:37:43.:37:46.

how they jing-a-ling #. Right from the beginning

:37:47.:37:52.

she understood the power of an amazing suit and also

:37:53.:37:58.

of really bright colour. What we've got here is a number

:37:59.:38:01.

of examples of those things. She really did provide a template

:38:02.:38:04.

for the modern political You look at some of the suits

:38:05.:38:07.

and you can imagine Hillary Clinton, dare I say it, or Nicola Sturgeon

:38:08.:38:13.

working a similar look. The Lady's old ministerial

:38:14.:38:19.

red box is perhaps conservatively estimated

:38:20.:38:22.

at up to ?5,000. Her bits of luggage contain

:38:23.:38:25.

multitudes, for some. She would have a copy

:38:26.:38:30.

of the 1944 Employment Act, for example, which she would

:38:31.:38:33.

take out at regular She would have books

:38:34.:38:38.

by Milton Freedman and Adam Smith and people like that

:38:39.:38:44.

which she'd quote from. After the Brighton bomb,

:38:45.:38:47.

she always kept a torch in her handbag, because

:38:48.:38:50.

she remembered how all the lights had gone out

:38:51.:38:53.

at that terrible moment. If it ever happened again,

:38:54.:38:56.

she wanted to be able to see These are little things

:38:57.:38:59.

that one doesn't automatically equate with a normal

:39:00.:39:04.

woman and her handbag. I think here you really see

:39:05.:39:16.

Thatcher's sense of theatre She wore this when she

:39:17.:39:29.

was meeting Gorbachev. She's really dressing for the stage,

:39:30.:39:35.

wearing a Russian-style hat and Russian echoes

:39:36.:39:39.

there on the collar Funny enough, one of the things

:39:40.:39:42.

she always made me think about was the dichotomy that

:39:43.:39:47.

Queen Elizabeth I would play with, herself as a woman

:39:48.:39:50.

and use her feminine wiles, on the other

:39:51.:39:56.

hand, she would refer to herself as a Prince and in a way,

:39:57.:39:59.

what Margaret Thatcher was doing sartorially was what she was doing

:40:00.:40:02.

politically, to have her cake To use her powers as a woman,

:40:03.:40:05.

but also to co-opt the powers More shoulder pads

:40:06.:40:10.

than the Super Bowl. And it's all very

:40:11.:40:14.

historic, in its way. But who'd want a piece

:40:15.:40:18.

of this in the house? I do have my eye, in fact,

:40:19.:40:21.

I've put in a bid. I'm certainly not going to tell

:40:22.:40:27.

you what it is, otherwise other people might bid for it and think

:40:28.:40:30.

it's an attractive thing Would I be right in thinking it's

:40:31.:40:32.

this kind of shape We might bid it up by a few

:40:33.:40:42.

bob, but you're OK. Steve Smith. There I wonder how much

:40:43.:41:01.

a pair of Tony Blair's shoes would get.

:41:02.:41:02.

Tomorrow is not only the big Thatcher sale at Christies,

:41:03.:41:06.

look out for British astronaut, Tim Peake, who'll be taking off

:41:07.:41:10.